Ecosystem change and stability over multiple decades in the Swedish subarctic: complex processes and multiple drivers

The Role of Intrinsic Factors in Explaining Range Shifts of European Breeding Birds: A Meta-Analysis

Species are shifting their distribution ranges in response to climate and land-use change. However, the observed range shift patterns are idiosyncratic in rate and direction. Species traits, such as ecological, life-history and movement traits, may play an important role in determining range shifts by influencing a species' capacity to shift successfully. Whilst several studies investigate the role of different species traits in driving range shifts, they generally consider few traits and range shift types. Range shift types such as abundance shift and centroid shift are generally not taken into account. Drivers of range shifts may, however, differ per range shift type. We conducted a meta-analysis to uncover the role of intrinsic factors (nine species functional traits and five spatial abundance characteristics) in explaining six contemporary range shift types (range size changes: expansion/contraction, relative change and rate of change; latitudinal shifts: abundance shift, centroid shift and range margin shift) in European breeding birds (n = 270). We found that the role of intrinsic factors in explaining contemporary range shifts in European breeding birds is indeed range shift type dependent. Natal dispersal distance and clutch size were, for instance, positively related to range size changes, while diet breadth and conservation status showed both negative and positive relationships depending on the range shift type. Acknowledging limitations regarding unevenness of data availability across the study region, the region of study was an important predictor for range size changes, suggesting a relative importance of local context and extrinsic drivers. Future trait-based analyses of range shifts would benefit from accounting for intraspecific variation in functional traits across time and space, the inclusion of additional traits like phenological traits, exposure to environmental pressures, and competitive ability, and should be investigated across multiple scales and for multiple types of range shifts.

Stronger Drought Response of CO2 Fluxes in Tundra Heath Compared to Sphagnum Peatland in the Sub-Arctic

Drought events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change, causing lasting impacts on plant communities and ecosystem functioning. In the sub-arctic, climate is changing at a rate above the global average with amplifying effects on the carbon cycle. Drought-induced shifts in the balance between productivity and respiration might have important implications for climate change feedbacks in these regions. However, little is known about how carbon fluxes in sub-arctic ecosystems respond to drought, hampering predictions. Here, we test how two important but contrasting sub-arctic ecosystem types, Sphagnum peatland and tundra heath, respond to experimental drought. Mesocosms were exposed to a full precipitation exclusion for 7 weeks, decreasing gravimetric water content by 66% and 53% for Sphagnum peatland and tundra heath, respectively. Drought suppressed all CO2 flux components. Gross primary productivity was on average reduced by 47% and 64%, and ecosystem respiration by 40% and 53% in Sphagnum peatland and tundra heath, respectively. Concomitantly with the ecosystem fluxes, leaf photosynthesis of the three most abundant vascular plant species per ecosystem type was on average suppressed by 40% (peatland) and 77% (tundra heath). Drought resulted in high plant mortality, with up to 54% (peatland) and 73% (tundra heath) dead shoots, which might represent a significant legacy effect suppressing CO2 uptake in subsequent growing seasons. In summary, tundra heath was overall more responsive to drought than peatland. This differential sensitivity, previously unaccounted for, might be important in the future under intensifying drought events. Considering that tundra heath covers more than half of the sub-arctic land area, its drought responsiveness might induce significant reductions in total arctic net CO2 uptake. This would move the arctic carbon balance further toward a net CO2 source.

In situ seasonal patterns of root auxin concentrations and meristem length in an arctic sedge

Seasonal dynamics of root growth play an important role in large-scale ecosystem processes; they are largely governed by growth regulatory compounds and influenced by environmental conditions. Yet, our knowledge about physiological drivers of root growth is mostly limited to laboratory-based studies on model plant species. We sampled root tips of Eriophorum vaginatum and analyzed their auxin concentrations and meristem lengths biweekly over a growing season in situ in a subarctic peatland, both in surface soil and at the permafrost thawfront. Auxin concentrations were almost five times higher in surface than in thawfront soils and increased over the season, especially at the thawfront. Surprisingly, meristem length showed an opposite pattern and was almost double in thawfront compared with surface soils. Meristem length increased from peak to late season in the surface soils but decreased at the thawfront. Our study of in situ seasonal dynamics in root physiological parameters illustrates the potential for physiological methods to be applied in ecological studies and emphasizes the importance of in situ measurements. The strong effect of root location and the unexpected opposite patterns of meristem length and auxin concentrations likely show that auxin actively governs root growth to ensure a high potential for nutrient uptake at the thawfront.

Warming influences carbon and nitrogen assimilation between a widespread Ericaceous shrub and root-associated fungi

High-latitude ecosystems are warming faster than other biomes and are often dominated by a ground layer of Ericaceous shrubs, which can respond positively to warming. The carbon-for-nitrogen (C-for-N) exchange between Ericaceous shrubs and root-associated fungi may underlie shrub responses to warming, but has been understudied. In a glasshouse setting, we examined the effects of warming on the C-for-N exchange between the Ericaceous shrub Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum and its root-associated fungi. We applied different 13 C and 15 N isotope labels, including a simple organic N form (glycine) and a complex organic N form (moss litter) and quantified their assimilation into soil, plant biomass, and root fungal biomass pools. We found that warming lowered the amount of 13 C partitioned to root-associated fungi per unit of glycine 15 N assimilated by E. nigrum, but only in the short term. By contrast, warming increased the amount of 13 C partitioned to root-associated fungi per unit of moss 15 N assimilated by E. nigrum. Our study suggests that climate warming affects the short-term exchange of C and N between a widespread Ericaceous shrub and root-associated fungi. Furthermore, while most isotope tracing studies use labile N sources, we demonstrate that a ubiquitous recalcitrant N source may produce contrasting results.

Limited decadal growth of mountain birch saplings has minor impact on surrounding tundra vegetation

Temperatures over the Arctic region are increasing at three times the rate of the global average. Consequently, Arctic vegetation is changing and trees are encroaching into the tundra. In this study, we examine the establishment and growth of mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa), which forms the treeline in subarctic Europe, and its impact on community composition across the treeline ecotone nearby Abisko, Sweden. Birch advancement along elevational gradients was studied by comparing data collected in 2016 with data collected 10 and 15 years previously. Species identity, cover, and phylogenetic relatedness were used to assess the impact of birch encroachment on community composition. Our results show that birch occurrence above the treeline did not affect plant community composition, probably owing to the observed lack of significant growth due to herbivore browsing, nitrogen limitation, or a reduction in snow cover. Independent of birch performance, the tundra community structure shifted toward a novel community dissimilar from the forest plant community found below the treeline. Taken together, our findings are explained by species-specific responses to climate change, rather than by a linear forest advance. Future treeline advancements are likely more restricted than previously expected.

Potential Futures for Coastal Wolves and Their Ecosystem Services in Alaska, With Implications for Management of a Social-Ecological System

Carnivores across much of the world are declining, leading to loss of biodiversity as well as the ecosystem services carnivores provide. In 2020, the Alexander Archipelago (AA) wolf was petitioned for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) for the third time in 30 years. Concerns included habitat alteration from industrial timber harvest and subsequent declines in prey (deer), human-caused mortality, climate change, and genetic inbreeding. However, the underlying biogeography and ecology of these wolves continues to suggest resiliency across the subspecies’ range, even though local populations may go extinct. If local wolf populations go extinct, it will result in loss of their ecosystem services (e.g., interactions of wolves with their prey, which prevents over-browsing and protects carbon sequestration in soils and trees), which will likely have major consequences for the local social-ecological system. Here, we updated a model we constructed for the last ESA listing process (2015) to examine the dynamics of wolf and deer populations on Prince of Wales Island (the primary geographic focus of all three petitions) in response to future environmental and management scenarios developed with stakeholders. Further, we considered how changes in deer abundance impact predation services (prevention of over-browsing by deer). We found that wolf populations generally persisted over 30 years, but dropped below an effective population size of 50 wolves in 10–98% of years simulated. Low wolf abundance resulted in higher deer abundance, which increased hunting opportunity, but also browsing damages (e.g., 19% of areas would be over-browsed if wolf harvest caps are removed, and >30% of areas would be over-browsed if wolves go extinct). Human harvest of wildlife was a key regulator of abundance and ecosystem services within the coastal rainforest social-ecological system; wolf abundance was most affected by wolf harvest regulations; and deer harvest restrictions increased wolf and deer abundances, but also greatly increased browsing impacts (>70% of areas heavily browsed if hunting ceased). Our findings support an integrated approach to management of this social-ecological system, such that social and ecological sciences are both used to monitor important components of the system (e.g., measuring public sentiment and likelihood of poaching, alongside wolf and deer numbers). Integration and adaptive approaches are needed to ensure that the many ecosystem services humans depend on are valued, conserved, and restored, including the cryptic predation services wolves have historically provided to the timber industry via reduced browsing pressure by deer.

The need to understand the stability of arctic vegetation during rapid climate change: An assessment of imbalance in the literature

In early studies, northern vegetation response to global warming recognised both increases in biomass/cover and shrinking of species' distributional ranges. Subsequent field measurements focussed on vegetation cover and biomass increases ("greening"), and more recently decreases ("browning"). However, satellite observations show that more than 50% of arctic vegetation has not changed significantly despite rapid warming. While absence of change in remote sensing data does not necessarily mean no ecological change on the ground, the significant proportion of the Arctic that appears to be stable in the face of considerable climate change points to a greater need to understand Arctic ecosystem stability. In this paper, we performed an extensive review of the available literature to seek balances or imbalances between research focussing on "greening", "browning" and "stability/no change". We find that greening studies dominate the literature though two relatively small areas of the Arctic are disproportionately represented for this main change process. Critically, there are too few studies anywhere investigating stability. We highlight the need to understand the mechanisms driving Arctic ecosystem stability, and the potential longer-term consequences of remaining stable in a rapidly changing climate.

Influence of increased nutrient availability on biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions and leaf anatomy of subarctic dwarf shrubs under climate warming and increased cloudiness

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Climate change is subjecting subarctic ecosystems to elevated temperature, increased nutrient availability and reduced light availability (due to increasing cloud cover). This may affect subarctic vegetation by altering the emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and leaf anatomy. We investigated the effects of increased nutrient availability on BVOC emissions and leaf anatomy of three subarctic dwarf shrub species, Empetrum hermaphroditum, Cassiope tetragona and Betula nana, and if increased nutrient availability modifies the responses to warming and shading.

METHODS

Measurements of BVOCs were performed in situ in long-term field experiments in the Subarctic using a dynamic enclosure system and collection of BVOCs into adsorbent cartridges analysed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Leaf anatomy was studied using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy.

KEY RESULTS

Increased nutrient availability increased monoterpene emission rates and altered the emission profile of B. nana, and increased sesquiterpene and oxygenated monoterpene emissions of C. tetragona. Increased nutrient availability increased leaf tissue thicknesses of B. nana and C. tetragona, while it caused thinner epidermis and the highest fraction of functional (intact) glandular trichomes for E. hermaphroditum. Increased nutrient availability and warming synergistically increased mesophyll intercellular space of B. nana and glandular trichome density of C. tetragona, while treatments combining increased nutrient availability and shading had an opposite effect in C. tetragona.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased nutrient availability may enhance the protection capacity against biotic and abiotic stresses (especially heat and drought) in subarctic shrubs under future warming conditions as opposed to increased cloudiness, which could lead to decreased resistance. The study emphasizes the importance of changes in nutrient availability in the Subarctic, which can interact with climate warming and increased cloudiness effects.

Contrasting responses of major and minor volatile compounds to warming and gall-infestation in the Arctic willow Salix myrsinites

Climate change is altering high-latitude ecosystems in multiple facets, including increased insect herbivory pressure and enhanced emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from vegetation. Yet, joint impacts of climatic drivers and insect herbivory on VOC emissions from the Arctic remain largely unknown. We examined how one-month warming by open-top plastic tents, yielding a 3-4 °C air temperature increase, and the natural presence of gall-forming eriophyoid mites, Aculus tetanothrix, individually and in combination, affect VOC emissions from whortle leaved willow, Salix myrsinites, at two elevations in an Arctic heath tundra of Abisko, Northern Sweden. We measured VOC emissions three times in the peak growing season (July) from intact and gall-infested branches using an enclosure technique and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, and leaf chemical composition using near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS). Isoprene accounted for 91% of the VOCs emitted by S. myrsinites. Isoprene emission rates tended to be higher at the high than low elevation during the measurement periods (42 μg g^-1 DW h^-1 vs. 23 μg g^-1 DW h^-1) even when temperature differences were accounted for. Experimental warming increased isoprene emissions by approximately 54%, but decreased emissions of some minor compound groups, such as green leaf volatiles (GLV) and (E)-4,8-dimethyl-1,3,7-nonatriene (DMNT). In contrast, gall-infestation did not affect isoprene emissions but stimulated emissions of DMNT, sesquiterpenes and GLVs, particularly under ambient conditions at the low elevation. The NIRS-based chemical composition of the leaves varied between the two elevations and was affected by warming and gall-infestation. Our study suggests that under elevated temperatures, S. myrsinites increases emissions of isoprene, a highly effective compound for protection against oxidative stress, while an infestation by A. tetanothrix mites induces emissions of herbivore enemy attractants like DMNT, sesquiterpenes and GLVs. Under both conditions, warming effects on isoprene remain but mite effects on DMNT, sesquiterpenes and GLVs diminish.

Associating Land Cover Changes with Patterns of Incidences of Climate-Sensitive Infections: An Example on Tick-Borne Diseases in the Nordic Area

Some of the climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) affecting humans are zoonotic vector-borne diseases, such as Lyme borreliosis (BOR) and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), mostly linked to various species of ticks as vectors. Due to climate change, the geographical distribution of tick species, their hosts, and the prevalence of pathogens are likely to change. A recent increase in human incidences of these CSIs in the Nordic regions might indicate an expansion of the range of ticks and hosts, with vegetation changes acting as potential predictors linked to habitat suitability. In this paper, we study districts in Fennoscandia and Russia where incidences of BOR and TBE have steadily increased over the 1995-2015 period (defined as 'Well Increasing districts'). This selection is taken as a proxy for increasing the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens due to increased habitat suitability for ticks and hosts, thus simplifying the multiple factors that explain incidence variations. This approach allows vegetation types and strengths of correlation specific to the WI districts to be differentiated and compared with associations found over all districts. Land cover types and their changes found to be associated with increasing human disease incidence are described, indicating zones with potential future higher risk of these diseases. Combining vegetation cover and climate variables in regression models shows the interplay of biotic and abiotic factors linked to CSI incidences and identifies some differences between BOR and TBE. Regression model projections up until 2070 under different climate scenarios depict possible CSI progressions within the studied area and are consistent with the observed changes over the past 20 years.

Synergistic effects of insect herbivory and changing climate on plant volatile emissions in the subarctic tundra

Climate change increases the insect abundance, especially in Arctic ecosystems. Insect herbivory also significantly increases plant emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which are highly reactive in the atmosphere and play a crucial role in atmospheric chemistry and physics. However, it is unclear how the effects of insect herbivory on VOC emissions interact with climatic changes, such as warming and increased cloudiness. We assessed how experimental manipulations of temperature and light availability in subarctic tundra, that had been maintained for 30 years at the time of the measurements, affect the VOC emissions from a widespread dwarf birch (Betula nana) when subjected to herbivory by local geometrid moth larvae, the autumnal moth (Epirrita autumnata) and the winter moth (Operophtera brumata). Warming and insect herbivory on B. nana stimulated VOC emission rates and altered the VOC blend. The herbivory-induced increase in sesquiterpene and homoterpene emissions were climate-treatment-dependent. Many herbivory-associated VOCs were more strongly induced in the shading treatment than in other treatments. We showed generally enhanced tundra VOC emissions upon insect herbivory and synergistic effects on the emissions of some VOC groups in a changing climate, which can have positive feedbacks on cloud formation. Furthermore, the acclimation of plants to long-term climate treatments affects VOC emissions and strongly interacts with plant responses to herbivory. Such acclimation complicates predictions of how climate change, together with interacting biotic stresses, affects VOC emissions in the high latitudes.

Reindeer grazing history determines the responses of subarctic soil fungal communities to warming and fertilization

Composition and functioning of arctic soil fungal communities may alter rapidly due to the ongoing trends of warmer temperatures, shifts in nutrient availability, and shrub encroachment. In addition, the communities may also be intrinsically shaped by heavy grazing, which may locally induce an ecosystem change that couples with increased soil temperature and nutrients and where shrub encroachment is less likely to occur than in lightly grazed conditions. We tested how 4 yr of experimental warming and fertilization affected organic soil fungal communities in sites with decadal history of either heavy or light reindeer grazing using high-throughput sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer 2 ribosomal DNA region. Grazing history largely overrode the impacts of short-term warming and fertilization in determining the composition of fungal communities. The less diverse fungal communities under light grazing showed more pronounced responses to experimental treatments when compared with the communities under heavy grazing. Yet, ordination approaches revealed distinct treatment responses under both grazing intensities. If grazing shifts the fungal communities in Arctic ecosystems to a different and more diverse state, this shift may dictate ecosystem responses to further abiotic changes. This indicates that the intensity of grazing cannot be left out when predicting future changes in fungi-driven processes in the tundra.

Comparison of the distribution and phenology of Arctic Mountain plants between the early 20th and 21st centuries

Arctic plants are adapted to climatic variability, but their long-term responses to warming remain unclear. Responses may occur by range shifts, phenological adjustments in growth and reproduction, or both. Here, we compare distribution and phenology of 83 arctic and boreal mountain species, sampled identically in the early 20th (1917-1919) and 21st centuries (2017-2018) from a region of northern Sweden that has warmed significantly. We test two compensatory hypotheses to high-latitude warming-upward shifts in distribution, and earlier or extended growth and reproduction. For distribution, we show dramatic upward migration by 69% of species, averaging 6.1 m per decade, especially boreal woodland taxa whose upward expansion has reduced arctic montane habitat by 30%. Twenty percent of summit species showed distributional shifts but downward, especially moisture-associated snowbed flora. For phenology, we detected wide inter-annual variability in the onset of leafing and flowering in both eras. However, there was no detectable change in growing-season length, relating to two mechanisms. First, plot-level snow melt data starting in 1917 demonstrated that melt date, rather than vernal temperatures, better predicts plant emergence, with snow melt influenced by warmer years having greater snowfall-warmer springs did not always result in earlier emergence because snowbeds can persist longer. Second, the onset of reproductive senescence between eras was similar, even when plant emergence was earlier by a month, possibly due to intensified summer heat stress or hard-wired 'canalization' where senescence occurs regardless of summer temperature. Migrations in this system have possibly buffered arctic species against displacement by boreal expansion and warming, but ongoing temperature increases, woody plant invasion, and a potential lack of flexibility in timing of senescence may foreshadow challenges.

Siberian plants shift their phenology in response to climate change

Siberia has undergone dramatic climatic changes due to global warming in recent decades. Yet, the ecological responses to these climatic changes are still poorly understood due to a lack of data. Here, we use a unique data set from the Russian 'Chronicles of Nature' network to analyse the long-term (1976-2018) phenological shifts in leaf out, flowering, fruiting and senescence of 67 common Siberian plant species. We find that Siberian boreal forest plants advanced their early season (leaf out and flowering) and mid-season (fruiting) phenology by -2.2, -0.7 and -1.6 days/decade, and delayed the onset of senescence by 1.6 days/decade during this period. These mean values, however, are subject to substantial intraspecific variability, which is partly explained by the plants' growth forms. Trees and shrubs advanced leaf out and flowering (-3.1 and -3.3. days/decade) faster than herbs (-1 day/decade), presumably due to the more direct exposure of leaf and flower buds to ambient air for the woody vegetation. For senescence, we detected a reverse pattern: stronger delays in herbs (2.1 days/decade) than in woody plants (1.0-1.2 days/decade), presumably due to the stronger effects of autumn frosts on the leaves of herbs. Interestingly, the timing of fruiting in all four growth forms advanced at similar paces, from 1.4 days/decade in shrubs to 1.7 days/decade in trees and herbs. Our findings point to a strong, yet heterogeneous, response of Siberian plant phenology to recent global warming. Furthermore, the results highlight that species- and growth form-specific differences among study species could be used to identify plants particularly at risk of decline due to their low adaptive capacity or a loss of synchronization with important interaction partners.

Predicting Soil Respiration from Plant Productivity (NDVI) in a Sub-Arctic Tundra Ecosystem

Soils represent the largest store of carbon in the biosphere with soils at high latitudes containing twice as much carbon (C) than the atmosphere. High latitude tundra vegetation communities show increases in the relative abundance and cover of deciduous shrubs which may influence net ecosystem exchange of CO2 from this C-rich ecosystem. Monitoring soil respiration (Rs) as a crucial component of the ecosystem carbon balance at regional scales is difficult given the remoteness of these ecosystems and the intensiveness of measurements that is required. Here we use direct measurements of Rs from contrasting tundra plant communities combined with direct measurements of aboveground plant productivity via Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to predict soil respiration across four key vegetation communities in a tundra ecosystem. Soil respiration exhibited a nonlinear relationship with NDVI (y = 0.202e3.508 x, p < 0.001). Our results further suggest that NDVI and soil temperature can help predict Rs if vegetation type is taken into consideration. We observed, however, that NDVI is not a relevant explanatory variable in the estimation of SOC in a single-study analysis.

Phenological stage of tundra vegetation controls bidirectional exchange of BVOCs in a climate change experiment on a subarctic heath

Traditionally, biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions are often considered a unidirectional flux, from the ecosystem to the atmosphere, but recent studies clearly show the potential for bidirectional exchange. Here we aimed to investigate how warming and leaf litter addition affect the bidirectional exchange (flux) of BVOCs in a long-term field experiment in the Subarctic. We also assessed changes in net BVOC fluxes in relation to the time of day and the influence of different plant phenological stages. The study was conducted in a full factorial experiment with open top chamber warming and annual litter addition treatments in a tundra heath in Abisko, Northern Sweden. After 18 years of treatments, ecosystem-level net BVOC fluxes were measured in the experimental plots using proton-transfer-reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometry (PTR-ToF-MS). The warming treatment increased monoterpene and isoprene emissions by ≈50%. Increasing temperature, due to diurnal variations, can both increase BVOC emission and simultaneously, increase ecosystem uptake. For any given treatment, monoterpene, isoprene, and acetone emissions also increased with increasing ambient air temperatures caused by diurnal variability. Acetaldehyde, methanol, and sesquiterpenes decreased likely due to a deposition flux. For litter addition, only a significant indirect effect on isoprene and monoterpene fluxes (decrease by ~50%-75%) was observed. Litter addition may change soil moisture conditions, leading to changes in plant species composition and biomass, which could subsequently result in changes to BVOC emission compositions. Phenological stages significantly affected fluxes of methanol, isoprene and monoterpenes. We suggest that plant phenological stages differ in impacts on BVOC net emissions, but ambient air temperature and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) also interact and influence BVOC net emissions differently. Our results may also suggest that BVOC fluxes are not only a response to changes in temperature and light intensity, as the circadian clock also affects emission rates.

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.

Insect Herbivory Strongly Modifies Mountain Birch Volatile Emissions

Insect herbivory is known to augment emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Yet few studies have quantified BVOC responses to insect herbivory in natural populations in pan-Arctic regions. Here, we assess how quantitative and qualitative BVOC emissions change with increasing herbivore feeding intensity in the Subarctic mountain birch (Betula pubescens var pumila (L.)) forest. We conducted three field experiments in which we manipulated the larval density of geometrid moths (Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata), on branches of mountain birch and measured BVOC emissions using the branch enclosure method and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Our study showed that herbivory significantly increased BVOC emissions from the branches damaged by larvae. BVOC emissions increased due to insect herbivory at relatively low larvae densities, causing up to 10% of leaf area loss. Insect herbivory also changed the blend composition of BVOCs, with damaged plants producing less intercorrelated BVOC blends than undamaged ones. Our results provide a quantitative understanding of the relationship between the severity of insect herbivore damage and emissions of BVOCs at larvae densities corresponding to background herbivory levels in the Subarctic mountain birch. The results have important and practical implications for modeling induced and constitutive BVOC emissions and their feedbacks to atmospheric chemistry.

Distribution of trace and major elements in subarctic ecosystem soils: Sources and influence of vegetation

Artic and subarctic environments are particularly sensitive to climate change with a faster warming compared to other latitudes. Vegetation is changing but its role on the biogeochemical cycling is poorly understood. In this study, we evaluated the distribution of trace elements in subarctic soils from different land covers at Abisko, northern Sweden: grassland, moor, broad-leaved forest, and peat bog. Using various multivariate analysis approaches, results indicated a spatial heterogeneity with a strong influence of soil horizon classes considered: lithogenic elements (e.g., Al, Cr, Ti) were accumulated in mineral horizon classes and surface process-influenced elements (e.g., Cd, Cu, Se) in organic horizon classes. Atmospheric influences included contamination by both local mines (e.g., Cu, Fe, Ni) and regional or long-range atmospheric transport (e.g., Cd, Pb, Zn). A non-negative matrix factorization was used to estimate, for each element, the contribution of various sources identified. For the first time, a comparison between geochemical and ecological data was performed to evaluate the influence of vegetation on element distribution. Apart from soil pH that could control dynamics of As, Cu, and Se, two vegetation classes were reported to be correlated to geochemical factors: forbs and shrubs/dwarf shrubs probably due to their annual vs. perennial activities, respectively. Since these are considered as the main vegetation classes that quickly evolve with climate change, we expect to see modifications in trace element biogeochemical cycling in the future.

Ecotypic divergences of the alpine herb Potentilla matsumurae adapted to fellfield-snowbed habitats across a series of mountain sky islands

PREMISE

Divergent selection due to environmental heterogeneity can lead to local adaptation. However, the ecological and evolutionary processes of local adaptation that occurs across multiple regions are often unknown. Our previous studies reported on the ecotypic divergence within a local area of variation of Potentilla matsumurae, an alpine herb adapted to the fellfield-snowbed environment. Here we investigated large-scale geographic patterns of ecotypic differentiation in this species to infer local adaptation and selective forces across multiple regions.

METHODS

We compiled information on the overall distributions of fellfield and snowbed habitats on the mountains in Japan across the distribution of the species. Next, we conducted common garden experiments to test the adaptive divergence of the fellfield-snowbed plants derived from multiple regions. Finally, we evaluated phylogeographic structures based on cpDNA and allozyme variations and inferred the evolutionary history of ecotype differentiation.

RESULTS

The mosaic distribution of the fellfield-snowbed ecotypes across isolated mountaintops constitutes indirect evidence for habitat-specific natural selection. The significant difference in survivorship between the ecotypes observed in a controlled snow environment provides more substantial evidence of local selection. Phylogeographic structures support the hypothesis that ecotypic divergence events from fellfield to snowbed populations occurred independently in at least two distinct regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Ecotypic divergence of P. matsumurae has occurred across a series of mountain sky islands. Local selection in snowy environments is a driving force that maintains the divergent ecotypes across multiple mountain regions and can contribute to the diversification of plants in heavy-snow regions.

Altitude effects on spatial components of vascular plant diversity in a subarctic mountain tundra

Environmental gradients are caused by gradual changes in abiotic factors, which affect species abundances and distributions, and are important for the spatial distribution of biodiversity. One prominent environmental gradient is the altitude gradient. Understanding ecological processes associated with altitude gradients may help us to understand the possible effects climate change could have on species communities. We quantified vegetation cover, species richness, species evenness, beta diversity, and spatial patterns of community structure of vascular plants along altitude gradients in a subarctic mountain tundra in northern Sweden. Vascular plant cover and plant species richness showed unimodal relationships with altitude. However, species evenness did not change with altitude, suggesting that no individual species became dominant when species richness declined. Beta diversity also showed a unimodal relationship with altitude, but only for an intermediate spatial scale of 1 km. A lack of relationships with altitude for either patch or landscape scales suggests that any altitude effects on plant spatial heterogeneity occurred on scales larger than individual patches but were not effective across the whole landscape. We observed both nested and modular patterns of community structures, but only the modular patterns corresponded with altitude. Our observations point to biotic regulations of plant communities at high altitudes, but we found both scale dependencies and inconsistent magnitude of the effects of altitude on different diversity components. We urge for further studies evaluating how different factors influence plant communities in high altitude and high latitude environments, as well as studies identifying scale and context dependencies in any such influences.

Drivers of dissolved organic carbon export in a subarctic catchment: Importance of microbial decomposition, sorption-desorption, peatland and lateral flow

Tundra soils account for 50% of global stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC), and it is expected that the amplified climate warming in high latitude could cause loss of this SOC through decomposition. Decomposed SOC could become hydrologically accessible, which increase downstream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export and subsequent carbon release to the atmosphere, constituting a positive feedback to climate warming. However, DOC export is often neglected in ecosystem models. In this paper, we incorporate processes related to DOC production, mineralization, diffusion, sorption-desorption, and leaching into a customized arctic version of the dynamic ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS in order to mechanistically model catchment DOC export, and to link this flux to other ecosystem processes. The extended LPJ-GUESS is compared to observed DOC export at Stordalen catchment in northern Sweden. Vegetation communities include flood-tolerant graminoids (Eriophorum) and Sphagnum moss, birch forest and dwarf shrub communities. The processes, sorption-desorption and microbial decomposition (DOC production and mineralization) are found to contribute most to the variance in DOC export based on a detailed variance-based Sobol sensitivity analysis (SA) at grid cell-level. Catchment-level SA shows that the highest mean DOC exports come from the Eriophorum peatland (fen). A comparison with observations shows that the model captures the seasonality of DOC fluxes. Two catchment simulations, one without water lateral routing and one without peatland processes, were compared with the catchment simulations with all processes. The comparison showed that the current implementation of catchment lateral flow and peatland processes in LPJ-GUESS are essential to capture catchment-level DOC dynamics and indicate the model is at an appropriate level of complexity to represent the main mechanism of DOC dynamics in soils. The extended model provides a new tool to investigate potential interactions among climate change, vegetation dynamics, soil hydrology and DOC dynamics at both stand-alone to catchment scales.

Understanding the drivers of extensive plant damage in boreal and Arctic ecosystems: Insights from field surveys in the aftermath of damage

The exact cause of population dieback in nature is often challenging to identify retrospectively. Plant research in northern regions has in recent decades been largely focussed on the opposite trend, namely increasing populations and higher productivity. However, a recent unexpected decline in remotely-sensed estimates of terrestrial Arctic primary productivity suggests that warmer northern lands do not necessarily result in higher productivity. As large-scale plant dieback may become more frequent at high northern latitudes with increasing frequency of extreme events, understanding the drivers of plant dieback is especially urgent. Here, we report on recent extensive damage to dominant, short, perennial heath and tundra plant populations in boreal and Arctic Norway, and assess the potential drivers of this damage. In the High-Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, we recorded that 8-50% of Cassiope tetragona and Dryas octopetala shoots were dead, and that the ratios of dead shoots increased from 2014 to 2015. In boreal Norway, 38-63% of Calluna vulgaris shoots were dead, while Vaccinium myrtillus had damage to 91% of shoots in forested sites, but was healthy in non-forested sites. Analyses of numerous sources of environmental information clearly point towards a winter climate-related reason for damage to three of these four species. In Svalbard, the winters of 2011/12 and 2014/15 were documented to be unusually severe, i.e. insulation from ambient temperature fluctuation by snow was largely absent, and ground-ice enforced additional stress. In boreal Norway, the 2013/14 winter had a long period with very little snow combined with extremely low precipitation rates, something which resulted in frost drought of uncovered Calluna plants. However, extensive outbreaks of a leaf-defoliating geometrid moth were identified as the driver of Vaccinium mortality. These results suggest that weather and biotic extreme events potentially have strong impacts on the vegetation state of northern lands.

Responses of lichen communities to 18 years of natural and experimental warming

Background and Aims

Climate change is expected to have major impacts on high alpine and arctic ecosystems in the future, but empirical data on the impact of long-term warming on lichen diversity and richness are sparse. This study report the effects of 18 years of ambient and experimental warming on lichens and vascular plant cover in two alpine plant communities, a dry heath with sparse canopy cover (54 %) and a mesic meadow with a more developed (67 %) canopy cover, in sub-arctic Sweden.

Methods

The effects of long-term passive experimental warming using open top chambers (OTCs) on lichens and total vascular plant cover, and the impact of plant cover on lichen community parameters, were analysed.

Key Results

Between 1993 and 2013, mean annual temperature increased about 2 °C. Both site and experimental warming had a significant effect on cover, species richness, effective number of species evenness of lichens, and total plant canopy cover. Lichen cover increased in the heath under ambient conditions, and remained more stable under experimental warming. The negative effect on species richness and effective number of species was driven by a decrease in lichens under experimental warming in the meadow. Lichen cover, species richness, effective number of species evenness were negatively correlated with plant canopy cover. There was a significant negative impact on one species and a non-significant tendency of lower abundance of the most common species in response to experimental warming.

Conclusions

The results from the long-term warming study imply that arctic and high alpine lichen communities are likely to be negatively affected by climate change and an increase in plant canopy cover. Both biotic and abiotic factors are thus important for future impacts of climate change on lichens.

Changes in vegetation cover and composition in the Swedish mountain region

Climate change, higher levels of natural resource demands, and changing land use will likely lead to changes in vegetation configuration in the mountain regions. The aim of this study was to determine if the vegetation cover and composition have changed in the Swedish region of the Scandinavian Mountain Range, based on data from the long-term landscape biodiversity monitoring program NILS (National Inventory of Landscapes in Sweden). Habitat type and vegetation cover were assessed in 1740 systematically distributed permanent field plots grouped into 145 sample units across the mountain range. Horvitz-Thompson estimations were used to estimate the present areal extension of the alpine and the mountain birch forest areas of the mountain range, the cover of trees, shrubs, and plants, and the composition of the bottom layer vegetation. We employed the data from two subsequent 5-year monitoring periods, 2003-2007 and 2008-2012, to determine if there have been any changes in these characteristics. We found that the extension of the alpine and the mountain birch forest areas has not changed between the inventory phases. However, the total tree canopy cover increased in the alpine area, the cover of graminoids and dwarf shrubs and the total cover of field vegetation increased in both the alpine area and the mountain birch forest, the bryophytes decreased in the alpine area, and the foliose lichens decreased in the mountain birch forest. The observed changes in vegetation cover and composition, as assessed by systematic data in a national and regional monitoring scheme, can validate the results of local studies, experimental studies, and models. Through benchmark assessments, monitoring data also contributes to governmental policies and land-management strategies as well as to directed cause and effect analyses.

Collembola at three alpine subarctic sites resistant to twenty years of experimental warming

This study examined the effects of micro-scale, site and 19 and 21 years of experimental warming on Collembola in three contrasting alpine subarctic plant communities (poor heath, rich meadow, wet meadow). Unexpectedly, experimental long-term warming had no significant effect on species richness, effective number of species, total abundance or abundance of any Collembola species. There were micro-scale effects on species richness, total abundance, and abundance of 10 of 35 species identified. Site had significant effect on effective number of species, and abundance of six species, with abundance patterns differing between sites. Site and long-term warming gave non-significant trends in species richness. The highest species richness was observed in poor heath, but mean species richness tended to be highest in rich meadow and lowest in wet meadow. Warming showed a tendency for a negative impact on species richness. This long-term warming experiment across three contrasting sites revealed that Collembola is capable of high resistance to climate change. We demonstrated that micro-scale and site effects are the main controlling factors for Collembola abundance in high alpine subarctic environments. Thus local heterogeneity is likely important for soil fauna composition and may play a crucial role in buffering Collembola against future climate change.

Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change

Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub-Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub-Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single-factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may have clear impacts, more work is needed to understand their net effect on Arctic ecosystems.

Climate change-induced vegetation change as a driver of increased subarctic biogenic volatile organic compound emissions

Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have been earlier shown to be highly temperature sensitive in subarctic ecosystems. As these ecosystems experience rapidly advancing pronounced climate warming, we aimed to investigate how warming affects the BVOC emissions in the long term (up to 13 treatment years). We also aimed to assess whether the increased litterfall resulting from the vegetation changes in the warming subarctic would affect the emissions. The study was conducted in a field experiment with factorial open-top chamber warming and annual litter addition treatments on subarctic heath in Abisko, northern Sweden. After 11 and 13 treatment years, BVOCs were sampled from plant communities in the experimental plots using a push-pull enclosure technique and collection into adsorbent cartridges during the growing season and analyzed with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Plant species coverage in the plots was analyzed by the point intercept method. Warming by 2 °C caused a 2-fold increase in monoterpene and 5-fold increase in sesquiterpene emissions, averaged over all measurements. When the momentary effect of temperature was diminished by standardization of emissions to a fixed temperature, warming still had a significant effect suggesting that emissions were also indirectly increased. This indirect increase appeared to result from increased plant coverage and changes in vegetation composition. The litter addition treatment also caused significant increases in the emission rates of some BVOC groups, especially when combined with warming. The combined treatment had both the largest vegetation changes and the highest BVOC emissions. The increased emissions under litter addition were probably a result of a changed vegetation composition due to alleviated nutrient limitation and stimulated microbial production of BVOCs. We suggest that the changes in the subarctic vegetation composition induced by climate warming will be the major factor indirectly affecting the BVOC emission potentials and composition.

Vascular plant abundance and diversity in an alpine heath under observed and simulated global change

Global change is predicted to cause shifts in species distributions and biodiversity in arctic tundra. We applied factorial warming and nutrient manipulation to a nutrient and species poor alpine/arctic heath community for seven years. Vascular plant abundance in control plots increased by 31%. There were also notable changes in cover in the nutrient and combined nutrient and warming treatments, with deciduous and evergreen shrubs declining, grasses overgrowing these plots. Sedge abundance initially increased significantly with nutrient amendment and then declined, going below initial values in the combined nutrient and warming treatment. Nutrient addition resulted in a change in dominance hierarchy from deciduous shrubs to grasses. We found significant declines in vascular plant diversity and evenness in the warming treatment and a decline in diversity in the combined warming and nutrient addition treatment, while nutrient addition caused a decline in species richness. The results give some experimental support that species poor plant communities with low diversity may be more vulnerable to loss of species diversity than communities with higher initial diversity. The projected increase in nutrient deposition and warming may therefore have negative impacts on ecosystem processes, functioning and services due to loss of species diversity in an already impoverished environment.

A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930-1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.

Plant volatiles in extreme terrestrial and marine environments

This review summarizes the current understanding on plant and algal volatile organic compound (VOC) production and emission in extreme environments, where temperature, water availability, salinity or other environmental factors pose stress on vegetation. Here, the extreme environments include terrestrial systems, such as arctic tundra, deserts, CO₂ springs and wetlands, and marine systems such as sea ice, tidal rock pools and hypersaline environments, with mangroves and salt marshes at the land-sea interface. The emission potentials at fixed temperature and light level or actual emission rates for phototrophs in extreme environments are frequently higher than for organisms from less stressful environments. For example, plants from the arctic tundra appear to have higher emission potentials for isoprenoids than temperate species, and hypersaline marine habitats contribute to global dimethyl sulphide (DMS) emissions in significant amounts. DMS emissions are more widespread than previously considered, for example, in salt marshes and some desert plants. The reason for widespread VOC, especially isoprenoid, emissions from different extreme environments deserves further attention, as these compounds may have important roles in stress resistance and adaptation to extremes. Climate warming is likely to significantly increase VOC emissions from extreme environments both by direct effects on VOC production and volatility, and indirectly by altering the composition of the vegetation.

Dominance hierarchies, diversity and species richness of vascular plants in an alpine meadow: contrasting short and medium term responses to simulated global change

We studied the impact of simulated global change on a high alpine meadow plant community. Specifically, we examined whether short-term (5 years) responses are good predictors for medium-term (7 years) changes in the system by applying a factorial warming and nutrient manipulation to 20 plots in Latnjajaure, subarctic Sweden. Seven years of experimental warming and nutrient enhancement caused dramatic shifts in dominance hierarchies in response to the nutrient and the combined warming and nutrient enhancement treatments. Dominance hierarchies in the meadow moved from a community being dominated by cushion plants, deciduous, and evergreen shrubs to a community being dominated by grasses, sedges, and forbs. Short-term responses were shown to be inconsistent in their ability to predict medium-term responses for most functional groups, however, grasses showed a consistent and very substantial increase in response to nutrient addition over the seven years. The non-linear responses over time point out the importance of longer-term studies with repeated measurements to be able to better predict future changes. Forecasted changes to temperature and nutrient availability have implications for trophic interactions, and may ultimately influence the access to and palatability of the forage for grazers. Depending on what anthropogenic change will be most pronounced in the future (increase in nutrient deposits, warming, or a combination of them both), different shifts in community dominance hierarchies may occur. Generally, this study supports the productivity-diversity relationship found across arctic habitats, with community diversity peaking in mid-productivity systems and degrading as nutrient availability increases further. This is likely due the increasing competition in plant-plant interactions and the shifting dominance structure with grasses taking over the experimental plots, suggesting that global change could have high costs to biodiversity in the Arctic.

Complex biotic interactions drive long-term vegetation dynamics in a subarctic ecosystem

Predicting impacts of global warming requires understanding of the extent to which plant biomass and production are controlled by bottom-up and top-down drivers. By annually monitoring community composition in grazed control plots and herbivore-free exclosures at an Arctic location for 15 years, we detected multiple biotic interactions. Regular rodent cycles acted as pulses driving synchronous fluctuations in the biomass of field-layer vegetation; reindeer influenced the biomass of taller shrubs, and the abundance of plant pathogenic fungi increased when densities of their host plants increased in exclosures. Two outbreaks of geometrid moths occurred during the study period, with contrasting effects on the field layer: one in 2004 had marginal effects, while one in 2012 severely reduced biomass in the control plots and eliminated biomass that had accumulated over 15 years in the exclosures. The latter was followed by a dramatic decline of the dominant understory dwarf-shrub Empetrum hermaphroditum, driven by an interaction between moth herbivory on top buds and leaves, and increased disease severity of a pathogenic fungus. We show that the climate has important direct and indirect effects on all these biotic interactions. We conclude that long time series are essential to identify key biotic interactions in ecosystems, since their importance will be influenced by climatic conditions, and that manipulative treatments are needed in order to obtain the mechanistic understanding needed for robust predictions of future ecosystem changes and their feedback effects.

A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs

Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.

Advancing the long view of ecological change in tundra systems. Introduction

Despite uncertainties related to sustained funding, ideological rivalries and the turnover of research personnel, long-term studies and studies espousing a long-term perspective in ecology have a history of contributing landmark insights into fundamental topics, such as population- and community dynamics, species interactions and ecosystem function. They also have the potential to reveal surprises related to unforeseen events and non-stationary dynamics that unfold over the course of ongoing observation and experimentation. The unprecedented rate and magnitude of current and expected abiotic changes in tundra environments calls for a synthetic overview of the scope of ecological responses these changes have elicited. In this special issue, we present a series of contributions that advance the long view of ecological change in tundra systems, either through sustained long-term research, or through retrospective or prospective modelling. Beyond highlighting the value of long-term research in tundra systems, the insights derived herein should also find application to the study of ecological responses to environmental change in other biomes as well.

Long-term monitoring at multiple trophic levels suggests heterogeneity in responses to climate change in the Canadian Arctic tundra

Arctic wildlife is often presented as being highly at risk in the face of current climate warming. We use the long-term (up to 24 years) monitoring records available on Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic to examine temporal trends in population attributes of several terrestrial vertebrates and in primary production. Despite a warming trend (e.g. cumulative annual thawing degree-days increased by 37% and snow-melt date advanced by 4-7 days over a 23-year period), we found little evidence for changes in the phenology, abundance or productivity of several vertebrate species (snow goose, foxes, lemmings, avian predators and one passerine). Only primary production showed a response to warming (annual above-ground biomass of wetland graminoids increased by 123% during this period). We nonetheless found evidence for potential mismatches between herbivores and their food plants in response to warming as snow geese adjusted their laying date by only 3.8 days on average for a change in snow-melt of 10 days, half of the corresponding adjustment shown by the timing of plant growth (7.1 days). We discuss several reasons (duration of time series, large annual variability, amplitude of observed climate change, nonlinear dynamic or constraints imposed by various rate of warming with latitude in migrants) to explain the lack of response by herbivores and predators to climate warming at our study site. We also show how length and intensity of monitoring could affect our ability to detect temporal trends and provide recommendations for future monitoring.