Modelling relationships between land use and water quality using statistical methods: A critical and applied review

Land use/land cover (LULC) can have significant impacts on water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems. Consequently, understanding and quantifying the nature of these impacts is essential for the development of effective catchment management strategies. This article provides a critical review of the literature in which the use of statistical methods to model the impacts of LULC on water quality is demonstrated. A survey of these publications, which included hundreds of original research and review articles, revealed several common themes and findings. However, there are also several persistent knowledge gaps, areas of methodological uncertainty, and questions of application that require further study and clarification. These relate primarily to appropriate analytical scales, the significance of landscape configuration, the estimation and application of thresholds, as well as the potentially confounding influence of extraneous variables. Moreover, geographical bias in the published literature means that there is a need for further research in ecologically and climatically disparate regions, including in less developed countries of the Global South. The focus of this article is not to provide a technical review of statistical techniques themselves, but to examine important practical and methodological considerations in their application in modelling the impacts of LULC on water quality.

Landscape drives zoonotic malaria prevalence in non-human primates

Zoonotic disease dynamics in wildlife hosts are rarely quantified at macroecological scales due to the lack of systematic surveys. Non-human primates (NHPs) host Plasmodium knowlesi, a zoonotic malaria of public health concern and the main barrier to malaria elimination in Southeast Asia. Understanding of regional P. knowlesi infection dynamics in wildlife is limited. Here, we systematically assemble reports of NHP P. knowlesi and investigate geographic determinants of prevalence in reservoir species. Meta-analysis of 6322 NHPs from 148 sites reveals that prevalence is heterogeneous across Southeast Asia, with low overall prevalence and high estimates for Malaysian Borneo. We find that regions exhibiting higher prevalence in NHPs overlap with human infection hotspots. In wildlife and humans, parasite transmission is linked to land conversion and fragmentation. By assembling remote sensing data and fitting statistical models to prevalence at multiple spatial scales, we identify novel relationships between P. knowlesi in NHPs and forest fragmentation. This suggests that higher prevalence may be contingent on habitat complexity, which would begin to explain observed geographic variation in parasite burden. These findings address critical gaps in understanding regional P. knowlesi epidemiology and indicate that prevalence in simian reservoirs may be a key spatial driver of human spillover risk.

Degeneration of foundation cushion species induced by ecological constraints can cause massive changes in alpine plant communities

Foundational cushion plants can re-organize community structures and sustain a prominent proportion of alpine biodiversity, but they are sensitive to climate change. The loss of cushion species can have broad consequences for associated biota. The potential plant community changes with the population dynamics of cushion plants remain, however, unclear. Using eight plant communities along a climatic and community successional gradient, we assessed cushion population dynamics, the underlying ecological constraints and hence associated plant community changes in alpine communities dominated by the foundational cushion plant Arenaria polytrichoides. The population dynamics of Arenaria are attributed to ecological constraints at a series of life history stages. Reproductive functions are constrained by increasing associated beneficiary plants; subsequent seedling establishment is constrained by temperature, water and light availability, extreme climate events, and interspecific competition; strong competitive exclusion may accelerate mortality and degeneration of cushion populations. Along with cushion dynamics, species composition, abundance and community structure gradually change. Once cushion plants completely degenerate, previously cushion-dominated communities shift to relatively stable communities that are overwhelmingly dominated by sedges. Climate warming may accelerate the degeneration process of A. polytrichoides. Degeneration of this foundational cushion plant will possibly induce massive changes in alpine plant communities and hence ecosystem functions in alpine ecosystems. The assessment of the population dynamics of foundation species is critical for an effective conservation of alpine biodiversity.

Habitat loss weakens the positive relationship between grassland plant richness and above-ground biomass

Habitat loss and fragmentation per se have been shown to be a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. However, little is known about how habitat loss and fragmentation per se alters the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem function (BEF relationship) in the natural landscape context. Based on 130 landscapes identified by a stratified random sampling in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China, we investigated the effects of landscape context (habitat loss and fragmentation per se) on plant richness, above-ground biomass, and the relationship between them in grassland communities using a structural equation model. We found that habitat loss directly decreased plant richness and hence decreased above-ground biomass, while fragmentation per se directly increased plant richness and hence increased above-ground biomass. Fragmentation per se also directly decreased soil water content and hence decreased above-ground biomass. Meanwhile, habitat loss decreased the magnitude of the positive relationship between plant richness and above-ground biomass by reducing the percentage of grassland specialists in the community, while fragmentation per se had no significant modulating effect on this relationship. These results demonstrate that habitat loss and fragmentation per se have inconsistent effects on BEF, with the BEF relationship being modulated by landscape context. Our findings emphasise that habitat loss rather than fragmentation per se can weaken the positive BEF relationship by decreasing the degree of habitat specialisation of the community.

Overcoming confusion and stigma in habitat fragmentation research

Anthropogenic habitat loss is widely recognized as a primary environmental concern. By contrast, debates on the effects of habitat fragmentation persist. To facilitate overcoming these debates, here we: (i) review the state of the literature on habitat fragmentation, finding widespread confusion and stigma; (ii) identify consequences of this for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management; and (iii) suggest ways in which research can move forward to resolve these problems. Confusion is evident from the 25 most-cited fragmentation articles published between 2017 and 2021. These articles use five distinct concepts of habitat fragmentation, only one of which clearly distinguishes habitat fragmentation from habitat area and other factors ('fragmentation per se'). Stigmatization is evident from our new findings that fragmentation papers are more charged with negative sentiments when compared to papers from other subfields in the environmental sciences, and that fragmentation papers with more negative sentiments are cited more. While most empirical studies of habitat fragmentation per se find neutral or positive effects on species and biodiversity outcomes, which implies that small habitat patches have a high cumulative value, confusion and stigma in reporting and discussing such results have led to suboptimal habitat protection policy. For example, government agencies, conservation organizations, and land trusts impose minimum habitat patch sizes on habitat protection. Given the high cumulative value of small patches, such policies mean that many opportunities for conservation are being missed. Our review highlights the importance of reducing confusion and stigma in habitat fragmentation research. To this end, we propose implementing study designs in which multiple sample landscapes are selected across independent gradients of habitat amount and fragmentation, measured as patch density. We show that such designs are possible for forest habitat across Earth's biomes. As such study designs are adopted, and as language becomes more precise, we expect that confusion and stigma in habitat fragmentation research will dissipate. We also expect important breakthroughs in understanding the situations where effects of habitat fragmentation per se are neutral, positive, or negative, and the reasons for these differences. Ultimately this will improve efficacy of area-based conservation policies, to the benefit of biodiversity and people.

Landscape evolution in China's key ecological function zones during 1990-2015

Landscape evolution has profound effects on ecosystems. Recently, some studies suggest that China has implemented plans leading in the greening of the world by mainly describing the changes based on satellite data. However, few studies have analyzed the policy effect on ecosystem improvement from the perspective of landscape pattern evolution. Among the numerous ecological policy plans, China's key ecological function zones plan is an important one. In this study, we focus on depicting the long-term and large-scale landscape evolution in China's key ecological function zones, which are accounting for 40.2% of China's land area, and include four-type ecoregions where ecosystems are fragile or important, to comprehensively explore the environmental influences of policy planning. For this purpose, we first described the landscape composition changes and conversion mechanisms in China's key ecological function zones from 1990 to 2015. Then we captured the detailed pattern evolution characteristics by landscape indices. The results show that these ecoregions were mostly evolving in an unfavorable direction in these 25 years, i.e. destruction of habitats and increment of fragmentation. Although greening areas increased based on other recent researches, the landscape pattern became worse, indicating it is necessary for the detailed analysis of landscape ecology and more accurate ecological planning. We also found the deterioration of the ecological environment had been uncharacteristically stopped or even improved in wind prevention and sand fixation ecoregions and biodiversity maintenance ecoregions after the implementation of this plan. Furthermore, we assumed that the policy is more prominent in these prohibiting sabotages and protecting areas with fragile ecological bases, which may be caused by the differentiated transfer payments in different ecoregions. Finally, some planning suggestions, such as stricter land use control, the regional balance of ecological transfer payments and deepening of ecological migration policies, etc., were proposed for promoting better future environmental changes.

A new set of metrics and framework to assess the colonization potential of riverscapes by wind-dispersed plant species

Quantifying the potential of a braided riverscape to be colonized by a plant species is essential for assessing the ecological state of the river and provides an important basis for nature conservation planning and the implementation of restoration measures. Common connectivity indices are largely unsuitable for describing the situation for the mostly wind-dispersed plant species. Our approach provides a set of comparable metrics that allows the quantification of the colonization potential of riverscapes at the patch and riverscape level. We propose a set of cell-based, spatially explicit measures that can easily be implemented. We demonstrate their application using two typical plant species and three riverscapes with different habitat configurations as examples. Our metrics consider shape, size and the spatial configuration of habitat patches, along with the dispersal characteristics of the respective species. The metrics provide a linear, balanced, and realistic representation of the colonization potential at the cell, patch, and riverscape levels. The results are comparable between different riverscapes and species, can be easily extended and used for further modeling. The metrics provide a valuable tool for the planning and evaluation of conservation, restoration, and reintroduction measures and close the gap between habitat availability analyses and large-scale terrestrial connectivity indices.

Global terrestrial invasions: Where naturalised birds, mammals, and plants might spread next and what affects this process

More species live outside their native range than at any point in human history. Yet, there is little understanding of the geographic regions that will be threatened if these species continue to spread, nor of whether they will spread. We predict the world's terrestrial regions to which 833 naturalised plants, birds, and mammals are most imminently likely to spread, and investigate what factors have hastened or slowed their spread to date. There is huge potential for further spread of naturalised birds in North America, mammals in Eastern Europe, and plants in North America, Eastern Europe, and Australia. Introduction history, dispersal, and the spatial distribution of suitable areas are more important predictors of species spread than traits corresponding to habitat usage or biotic interactions. Natural dispersal has driven spread in birds more than in plants. Whether these taxa continue to spread more widely depends partially on connectivity of suitable environments. Plants show the clearest invasion lag, and the putative importance of human transportation indicates opportunities to slow their spread. Despite strong predictive effects, questions remain, particularly why so many birds in North America do not occupy climatically suitable areas close to their existing ranges.

Obstruction of biodiversity conservation by minimum patch size criteria

Minimum patch size criteria for habitat protection reflect the conservation principle that a single large (SL) patch of habitat has higher biodiversity than several small (SS) patches of the same total area (SL > SS). Nonetheless, this principle is often incorrect, and biodiversity conservation requires placing more emphasis on protection of large numbers of small patches (SS > SL). We used a global database reporting the abundances of species across hundreds of patches to assess the SL > SS principle in systems where small patches are much smaller than the typical minimum patch size criteria applied for biodiversity conservation (i.e., ∼85% of patches <100 ha). The 76 metacommunities we examined included 4401 species in 1190 patches. From each metacommunity, we resampled species-area accumulation curves to evaluate how biodiversity responded to habitat existing as a few large patches or as many small patches. Counter to the SL > SS principle and consistent with previous syntheses, species richness accumulated more rapidly when adding several small patches (45.2% SS > SL vs. 19.9% SL > SS) to reach the same cumulative area, even for the very small patches in our data set. Responses of taxa to habitat fragmentation differed, which suggests that when a given total area of habitat is to be protected, overall biodiversity conservation will be most effective if that habitat is composed of as many small patches as possible, plus a few large ones. Because minimum patch size criteria often require larger patches than the small patches we examined, our results suggest that such criteria hinder efforts to protect biodiversity.

Forests are critically important to global pollinator diversity and enhance pollination in adjacent crops

Although the importance of natural habitats to pollinator diversity is widely recognized, the value of forests to pollinating insects has been largely overlooked in many parts of the world. In this review, we (i) establish the importance of forests to global pollinator diversity, (ii) explore the relationship between forest cover and pollinator diversity in mixed-use landscapes, and (iii) highlight the contributions of forest-associated pollinators to pollination in adjacent crops. The literature shows unambiguously that native forests support a large number of forest-dependent species and are thus critically important to global pollinator diversity. Many pollinator taxa require or benefit greatly from resources that are restricted to forests, such as floral resources provided by forest plants (including wind-pollinated trees), dead wood for nesting, tree resins, and various non-floral sugar sources (e.g. honeydew). Although landscape-scale studies generally support the conclusion that forests enhance pollinator diversity, findings are often complicated by spatial scale, focal taxa, landscape context, temporal context, forest type, disturbance history, and external stressors. While some forest loss can be beneficial to pollinators by enhancing habitat complementarity, too much can result in the near-elimination of forest-associated species. There is strong evidence from studies of multiple crop types that forest cover can substantially increase yields in adjacent habitats, at least within the foraging ranges of the pollinators involved. The literature also suggests that forests may have enhanced importance to pollinators in the future given their role in mitigating the negative effects of pesticides and climate change. Many questions remain about the amount and configuration of forest cover required to promote the diversity of forest-associated pollinators and their services within forests and in neighbouring habitats. However, it is clear from the current body of knowledge that any effort to preserve native woody habitats, including the protection of individual trees, will benefit pollinating insects and help maintain the critical services they provide.

Multiple-region, N-mixture community model to assess associations of riparian area, fragmentation, and species richness

The associations of habitat area and fragmentation with species richness long have been major topics within community ecology. Recent discussion has focused on properly assessing fragmentation independent of habitat area (fragmentation per se), and on whether fragmentation has significant negative or positive associations with species richness. We created a novel, multiple-region, N-mixture community model (MNCM) to examine the relations of riparian area and fragmentation with species richness of breeding birds in mountain ranges within the Great Basin, Nevada, USA. Our MNCM accounts for imperfect detection in count data at the survey-point level while allowing comparisons of species richness among regions in which those points are embedded. We used individual canyons within mountain ranges as regions in our model and measured riparian area and the Normalized Landscape Shape Index, a metric of fragmentation that is independent of total riparian area. We found that riparian area, but not its fragmentation, was a primary predictor of canyon-level species richness of both riparian obligates and all species. The relationship between riparian area and riparian obligate species richness was nonlinear: canyons with ≥25 ha woody riparian vegetation had relatively high species richness, whereas species richness was considerably lower in canyons with <25 ha. Our MNCM can be used to calculate other metrics of diversity that require abundance estimates. For example, Simpson's evenness of riparian obligate species had a weak negative association with riparian area and was not associated with fragmentation. Projections of future riparian contraction suggested that decreases in species richness are likely to be greatest in canyons that currently have moderate (~10-25 ha) amounts of riparian vegetation. Our results suggest that if a goal of management is to maximize the species richness of breeding birds in montane riparian areas in the Great Basin, it may be more effective to focus on total habitat area than on fragmentation of patches within canyons, and that canyons with at least moderate amounts of riparian vegetation should be prioritized.

Disentangling direct and indirect effects of landscape structure on urban bird richness and functional diversity

As fragmented landscapes become increasingly common around the world, managing the spatial arrangement of landscape elements (i.e., landscape configuration) may help to promote the conservation of biodiversity. However, the relative effects of landscape configuration on different dimensions of biodiversity across species assemblages are largely unknown. Thus, a key challenge consists in understanding when it is necessary to focus on landscape configuration, in addition to landscape composition, to achieve multifunctional landscapes. We tested the effects of landscape composition (the percentage of tree cover and built infrastructure) and landscape configuration (degree of fragmentation) on landscape-level species richness and different metrics of functional diversity of urban birds. We collected data on different bird guilds (nectarivores/frugivores, insectivores) from Brisbane, Australia. Using structural equation models, we found that landscape structure (landscape composition and configuration) affected functional diversity via two main pathways: (1) through effects of landscape composition, mediated by landscape configuration (indirect effects), and (2) through direct ("independent") effects of landscape composition and configuration, filtering species with extreme trait values. Our results show that landscape-level species richness declined with the extent of built infrastructure, but patterns of trait diversity did not necessarily correlate with this variable. Landscape configuration had a stronger mediating effect on some metrics of the functional diversity of insectivores than on the functional diversity of frugivores/nectarivores. In addition, fragmentation increased the effects of built infrastructure for some traits (body size and dispersal capacity), but not for others (habitat plasticity and foraging behavior). These results suggest that differential approaches to managing landscape structure are needed depending on whether the focus is on protecting functional diversity or species richness and what the target guild is. Managing landscape fragmentation in areas with high levels of built infrastructure is important if the objective is to protect insectivore species with uncommon traits, even if it is not possible to preserve high levels of species richness. However, if the target is to enhance both functional diversity and species richness of multiple guilds, the focus should be on improving composition through the reduction of negative effects of built infrastructure, rather than promoting specific landscape configurations in growing cities.

Spatial Comparative Analysis of Landscape Fragmentation Metrics in a Watershed with Diverse Land Uses in Iran

Knowledge of landscape fragmentation is known to be important in ecological integrity, hydrological processes, urban planning, sustainable land management, and policymaking. Recent anecdotal studies reveal a need for analytical quantification of landscape fragmentation at different levels. Therefore, the present study was conducted at KoozehTopraghi Watershed, Ardabil Province, Iran, where covers by different land uses/covers, to (a) explore the spatial pattern of landscape fragmentation metrics comprehensively in different scales, (b) distinguish the landscape fragmentation hot spots, and (c) investigate the spatial clustering of landscape fragmentation metrics. The behaviors of 7, 10, and 13 fragmentation metrics concerning three levels of patch, class, and landscape across 36 sub-watersheds were explored using principal component analysis (PCA) and expert elicitation. The Getis-Ord Gi* and local Moran’s I indices were also used to analyze the hot spots and clusters of landscape fragmentation, respectively. The results verified the high degree of spatial variability of the metrics in the three levels of fragmentation analysis. The class-level fragmentation analysis showed that the watershed is characterized by high-fragmented residential land use and low-fragmented dry farming land use. The spatial trend analysis at the landscape level further indicated that sub-watersheds 1, 2, 11, 21, to 26, and 34 to 36, mainly located in lowlands and central parts, allocated better status considering the fragmentation metrics rather than other parts of the watershed. The significant hot spots and high clusters of fragmentation also were distributed in different parts of the watershed in terms of various landscape metrics.

Suggestive Data Annotation for CNN-Based Building Footprint Mapping Based on Deep Active Learning and Landscape Metrics

Convolutional neural network (CNN)-based very high-resolution (VHR) image segmentation has become a common way of extracting building footprints. Despite publicly available building datasets and pre-trained CNN models, it is still necessary to prepare sufficient labeled image tiles to train CNN models from scratch or update the parameters of pre-trained CNN models to extract buildings accurately in real-world applications, especially the large-scale building extraction, due to differences in landscapes and data sources. Deep active learning is an effective technique for resolving this issue. This study proposes a framework integrating two state-of-the-art (SOTA) models, U-Net and DeeplabV3+, three commonly used active learning strategies, (i.e., margin sampling, entropy, and vote entropy), and landscape characterization to illustrate the performance of active learning in reducing the effort of data annotation, and then understand what kind of image tiles are more advantageous for CNN-based building extraction. The framework enables iteratively selecting the most informative image tiles from the unlabeled dataset for data annotation, training the CNN models, and analyzing the changes in model performance. It also helps us to understand the landscape features of iteratively selected image tiles via active learning by considering building as the focal class and computing the percent, the number of patches, edge density, and landscape shape index of buildings based on labeled tiles in each selection. The proposed method was evaluated on two benchmark building datasets, WHU satellite dataset II and WHU aerial dataset. Models in each iteration were trained from scratch on all labeled tiles. Experimental results based on the two datasets indicate that, for both U-Net and DeeplabV3+, the three active learning strategies can reduce the number of image tiles to be annotated and achieve good model performance with fewer labeled image tiles. Moreover, image tiles with more building patches, larger areas of buildings, longer edges of buildings, and more dispersed building distribution patterns were more effective for model training. The study not only provides a framework to reduce the data annotation efforts in CNN-based building extraction but also summarizes the preliminary suggestions for data annotation, which could facilitate and guide data annotators in real-world applications.

Effect of urbanization and its environmental stressors on the intraspecific variation of flight functional traits in two bumblebee species

The way urbanization shapes the intraspecific variation of pollinator functional traits is little understood. However, this topic is relevant for investigating ecosystem services and pollinator health. Here, we studied how urbanization affects the functional traits of workers in two bumblebee species (Bombus terrestris and B. pascuorum) sampled in 37 sites along a gradient of urbanization in North Italy (an area of 1800 km² including the metropolitan context of Milan and other surrounding capital districts). Namely, we investigated the effect of land use composition, configuration, air temperature, flower resource abundance, and air pollutants on the variation of traits related to flight performance and of stress during insect development (i.e., wing size, wing shape and size fluctuating asymmetry). The functional traits of the two bumblebees responded idiosyncratically to urbanization. Urban temperatures were associated with smaller wing sizes in B. pascuorum and with more accentuated fluctuating asymmetry of wing size in B. terrestris. Moreover, flower abundance correlated with bigger wings in B. terrestris and with less asymmetric wing size in B. pascuorum. Other traits did not vary significantly, and other urban variables played minor effects. These species-specific variation patterns highlight that environmental stressor linked to urbanization negatively impact the traits related to flight performance and development stability of these syntopic bumblebees, with possible consequences on the pollination service they provide.

Winter Bird Diversity and Abundance in Small Farmlands in a Megacity of Southern China

Urban expansion often accompanies a loss of natural habitats and arable lands but an increase in urban population. In China, vegetable-dominant small farmlands are common in urban/peri-urban areas. Some farmlands are also associated with government policy that aims to enhance local farmers’ livelihoods as well as increase food availability for city citizens. While small urban farmlands create open greenery cover that may provide birds with resources such as food and shelter, little attention has been given to understanding bird diversity in urban farmlands. Using two hierarchical models (multi-species occupancy model and N-mixture model), we examined how species richness and abundance of birds were associated with environmental characteristics within and surrounding urban farmlands in Guangzhou, one of the largest cities in China. We conducted crop and bird surveys at urban farmlands during two winter seasons between December 2019 and January 2021. Species richness increased with non-woody (herbaceous) vegetation cover within a farmland. Abundance of three species was also positively associated with the local non-woody vegetation variable. Two species were more abundant at farmlands with higher crop diversity. Compositional features of matrix surrounding a farmland (a 500-m circular area) did not affect species richness. However, species richness and abundance of one species tended to decrease with increasing farmland fragmentation (patch density of farmlands) within a 1-km circular area. These findings suggest that (1) birds could be more influenced by environmental features within farmlands than matrix features surrounding farmlands, (2) local uncultivated herbaceous vegetation is an important environmental feature, and (3) diverse crops in farmlands may benefit some birds. They also indicate that the landscape pattern of farmlands, such as degree of fragmentation, could affect bird diversity in urban farmlands.

Forest Ecosystem Fragmentation in Ecuador: Challenges for Sustainable Land Use in the Tropical Andean

Natural ecosystems are declining and fragmenting globally at unprecedented rates. Fragmentation of natural ecosystems leads to decline in functions and services with severe impact on people. In Ecuador, despite establishment of the nationwide ecosystem classification, this baseline information has not been fully exploited to generate a monitoring system for ecosystem changes. Forest ecosystems are altered daily in Ecuador by human impact, but the relationship between forest fragmentation and human land use has not been adequately explored. To provide an overview of how recent forest fragmentation at the national and ecosystem level was affected by practices in human land use, we quantified the degree of forest fragmentation using the forest fragmentation index (FFI). The relationship between the degree of forest ecosystem fragmentation and human land use of 64 natural forest ecosystems was analyzed during the time period 1990 to 2014. At the national level, the expansion of pasture and inhabited area significantly increased forest fragmentation. The regression models based on the FFI value indicated that the forest fragmentation was highly correlated to pastures in forest ecosystems with low, moderate, and high fragmentation in 2014 due to a progressive increase in pastures. This study showed the critical gaps between forest conservation strategies and actual practices in human land use.

Urban Land Expansion from Scratch to Urban Agglomeration in the Federal District of Brazil in the Past 60 Years

Empirical studies of urban expansion have increased rapidly in recent decades worldwide. Previous studies mainly focused on cities in China, the United States or African countries, with Brazilian cities receiving less attention. Moreover, such studies are rare in purpose-built cities. Taking the urban expansion from scratch (1960) to urban agglomeration (2015) in the Federal District of Brazil (FDB) as an example, this study aims to quantify the magnitude, patterns, modes, types and efficiency of urban land expansion and attempts to reveal some implications within sustainable urban expansion thinking. Annual expansion, landscape metrics, local Moran’s I index, area weighted mean expansion index, and land-use efficiency were computed. The suitability of diffusion–coalescence theory and the impact of population growth and urban development policies on urban expansion were discussed. Urban land continuously expanded and became more fragmented during 1960–2015, which mainly occurred in SSW and WSW directions. Urban land evolved in a polycentric way. Edge expansion was identified as the stable contributor, and the importance of infilling and spontaneous growth alternated. Urban expansion in this region supported the diffusion–coalescence theory. Population growth promoted urban expansion, and the creation of peripheral urban nuclei and their development were associated with the urban expansion and the changes in urban land structure. This study adds new empirical evidence of urban expansion to Brazil urbanization, and compact urbanization, population control, and efficient urban land use should be considered in the future.

Movement and dispersal of a habitat specialist in human-dominated landscapes: a case study of the red panda

BACKGROUND

Habitat specialists living in human-dominated landscapes are likely to be affected by habitat fragmentation and human disturbances more than generalists. But there is a paucity of information on their response to such factors. We examined the effect of these factors on movement patterns of red pandas Ailurus fulgens, a habitat and diet specialist that inhabits the eastern Himalaya.

METHODS

We equipped 10 red pandas (six females, four males) with GPS collars and monitored them from September 2019 to March 2020 in Ilam, eastern Nepal. We collected habitat and disturbance data over four seasons. We considered geophysical covariates, anthropogenic factors and habitat fragmentation metrics, and employed linear -mixed models and logistic regression to evaluate the effect of those variables on movement patterns.

RESULTS

The median daily distance travelled by red pandas was 756 m. Males travelled nearly 1.5 times further than females (605 m). Males and sub-adults travelled more in the mating season while females showed no seasonal variation for their daily distance coverage. Red pandas were relatively more active during dawn and morning than the rest of the day, and they exhibited seasonal variation in distance coverage on the diel cycle. Both males and females appeared to be more active in the cub-rearing season, yet males were more active in the dawn in the birthing season. Two sub-adult females dispersed an average of 21 km starting their dispersal with the onset of the new moon following the winter solstice. The single subadult male did not disperse. Red pandas avoided roads, small-habitat patches and large unsuitable areas between habitat patches. Where connected habitat with high forest cover was scarce the animals moved more directly than when habitat was abundant.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicates that this habitat specialist is vulnerable to human disturbances and habitat fragmentation. Habitat restoration through improving functional connectivity may be necessary to secure the long-term conservation of specialist species in a human-dominated landscape. Regulation of human activities should go in parallel to minimize disturbances during biologically crucial life phases. We recommend habitat zonation to limit human activities and avoid disturbances, especially livestock herding and road construction in core areas.

Landscape Pattern Evolution and Its Response to Human Disturbance in a Newly Metropolitan Area: A Case Study in Jin-Yi Metropolitan Area

The impact of human interference on the ecological environment has attracted a significant amount of attention. In this study, hemeroby index (HI) was constructed to quantify the degree of human disturbance, and the relationship between HI and landscape pattern index was explored in a newly metropolitan area. The main objectives of this study were to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of landscape pattern and human disturbance in the process of urbanization of county-level cities in China, and to explore the relationship between the landscape pattern index and human disturbance under different disturbance intensity. The conclusions showed that: (1) the degree of human interference in the new area is on the rise, with a slow increase from 1980 to 2010, but since 2010, human interference has increased significantly. The diffusion of human disturbance intensity has obvious spatial directivity, spreading from east to west. (2) The impact of human activities on landscape pattern is shown as increasing fragmentation and increasing number of landscape types. With the enhancement of human activities, the heterogeneity and fragmentation of landscape types in the region reach their highest points. With the continuous increase of human activities, on a certain scale, the landscape types will gradually tend to be the same, and the same type of landscape patches will become one piece and tend to be integrated. This phenomenon is particularly obvious at the patch type level. (3) There is an inflection point value between human disturbance and landscape pattern index in landscape or patch type. On both sides of the inflection point value, the landscape pattern parameters and human disturbance have obvious opposite trends. (4) In the low interference range (1 ≤ HI < 4), with the increase of human interference, more heterogeneous structures (shown in the increase of SHDI) are brought to the landscape, there is more landscape fragmentation (shown in the decrease of LPI, CONTRACT, and AI), and the patch shape and landscape structure tend to be complex (shown in the increase of LSI, SQP, ED, and other indexes); in the high interference range (4 ≤ HI ≤ 7), due to human intervention, the increase of LPI, contract, and AI indicates that intense human activities turn the landscape into a broken and scattered structure and tend to be consistent and homogeneous. LSI, SQP, and ED were negatively correlated with HI at this stage, indicating that with the enhancement of human activities, the complexity of landscape shape decreased.

Local Fractal Connections to Characterize the Spatial Processes of Deforestation in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Deforestation by human activities is a common issue in Amazonian countries. This occurs at different spatial and temporal scales causing primary forest loss and land fragmentation issues. During the deforestation process as the forest loses connectivity, the deforested patches create new intricate connections, which in turn create complex networks. In this study, we analyzed the local connected fractal dimension (LCFD) of the deforestation process in the Sumaco Biosphere Reserve (SBR) with two segmentation methods, —CA-wavelet and K-means—to categorize the complexity of deforested patches’ connections and then relate these with the spatial processes. The results showed an agreement with both methods, in which LCFD values below 1 corresponded to isolated patches with simple shapes and those above 1 signified more complex and connected patches. From CA-wavelet a threshold of 1.57 was detected allowing us to identify and discern low and high land transformation, while the threshold for K-means was 1.61. Both values represent the region from which deforestation performs local aggressive expansion networks. The thresholds were used to map the LCFD in which all spatial processes were visually detected. However, the threshold of 1.6 ± 0.03 was more effective in discerning high land transformation. such as shrinkage and attrition, in the deforestation process in the SBR.

The temporal evolution of income polarization in Canada's largest CMAs

Income polarization is a pressing issue which is increasingly discussed by academics and policymakers. The present research examines income polarization in Canada’s eight largest Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) using data at the census-tract (CT) level between 1971 and 2016. Generally, there are significant decreasing trends in the middle-income population with simultaneously increasing trends in low-income groups. The high-income groups have been relatively stable with fewer significant increasing population trends. Using conventional mapping and cartograms, patterns of the spatial evolution of income inequality are illustrated. Every CMA examined contains an increasing trend of spatial fragmentation at the patch level within each CMA’s landscape mosaic. The results of a spatial autocorrelation analysis at the sub-patch, CT level, exhibit significant spatial clustering of high-income CTs as one process that dominates the increasingly fragmented landscape mosaic.

Environmental and spatial risk factors for the larval habitats of Plasmodium knowlesi vectors in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo

Land-use changes, such as deforestation and agriculture, can influence mosquito vector populations and malaria transmission. These land-use changes have been linked to increased incidence in human cases of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. This study investigates whether these associations are partially driven by fine-scale land-use changes creating more favourable aquatic breeding habitats for P. knowlesi anopheline vectors. Using aerial remote sensing data, we developed a sampling frame representative of all land use types within a major focus of P. knowlesi transmission. From 2015 to 2016 monthly longitudinal surveys of larval habitats were collected in randomly selected areas stratified by land use type. Additional remote sensing data on environmental variables, land cover and landscape configuration were assembled for the study site. Risk factor analyses were performed over multiple spatial scales to determine associations between environmental and spatial variables and anopheline larval presence. Habitat fragmentation (300 m), aspect (350 m), distance to rubber plantations (100 m) and Culex larval presence were identified as risk factors for Anopheles breeding. Additionally, models were fit to determine the presence of potential larval habitats within the areas surveyed and used to generate a time-series of monthly predictive maps. These results indicate that land-use change and topography influence the suitability of larval habitats, and may partially explain the link between P. knowlesi incidence and deforestation. The predictive maps, and identification of the spatial scales at which risk factors are most influential may aid spatio-temporally targeted vector control interventions.

Intact landscape promotes gene flow and low genetic structuring in the threatened Eastern Massasauga Rattlesnake

Genetic structuring of wild populations is dependent on environmental, ecological, and life-history factors. The specific role environmental context plays in genetic structuring is important to conservation practitioners working with rare species across areas with varying degrees of fragmentation. We investigated fine-scale genetic patterns of the federally threatened Eastern Massasauga Rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus) on a relatively undisturbed island in northern Michigan, USA. This species often persists in habitat islands throughout much of its distribution due to extensive habitat loss and distance-limited dispersal. We found that the entire island population exhibited weak genetic structuring with spatially segregated variation in effective migration and genetic diversity. The low level of genetic structuring contrasts with previous studies in the southern part of the species' range at comparable fine scales (~7 km), in which much higher levels of structuring were documented. The island population's genetic structuring more closely resembles that of populations from Ontario, Canada, that occupy similarly intact habitats. Intrapopulation variation in effective migration and genetic diversity likely corresponds to the presence of large inland lakes acting as barriers and more human activity in the southern portion of the island. The observed genetic structuring in this intact landscape suggests that the Eastern Massasauga is capable of sufficient interpatch movements to reduce overall genetic structuring and colonize new habitats. Landscape mosaics with multiple habitat patches and localized barriers (e.g., large water bodies or roads) will promote gene flow and natural colonization for this declining species.

Habitat loss on the breeding grounds is a major contributor to population declines in a long-distance migratory songbird

Many migratory species are declining and for most, the proximate causes of their declines remain unknown. For many long-distance Neotropical migratory songbirds, it is assumed that habitat loss on breeding or non-breeding grounds is a primary driver of population declines. We integrated data collected from tracking technology, community science and remote sensing data to quantify migratory connectivity (MC), population trends and habitat loss. We quantified the correlation between forest change throughout the annual cycle and population declines of a long-distance migratory songbird, the Connecticut warbler (Oporornis agilis, observed decline: -8.99% yr-1). MC, the geographic link between populations during two or more phases of the annual cycle, was stronger between breeding and autumn migration routes (MC = 0.24 ± 0.23) than between breeding and non-breeding locations (MC = -0.2 ± 0.14). Different Connecticut warbler populations tended to have population-specific fall migration routes but overlapped almost completely within the northern Gran Chaco ecoregion in South America. Cumulative forest loss within 50 km of breeding locations and the resulting decline in the largest forested patch index was correlated more strongly with population declines than forest loss on migratory stopover regions or on wintering locations in South America, suggesting that habitat loss during the breeding season is a driver of observed population declines for the Connecticut warbler. Land-use practices that retain large, forested patches within landscapes will likely benefit breeding populations of this declining songbird, but further research is needed to help inform land-use practices across the full annual cycle to minimize the impacts to migratory songbirds and abate ongoing population declines.

Evaluating the Relationships between Riparian Land Cover Characteristics and Biological Integrity of Streams Using Random Forest Algorithms

The relationships between land cover characteristics in riparian areas and the biological integrity of rivers and streams are critical in riparian area management decision-making. This study aims to evaluate such relationships using the Trophic Diatom Index (TDI), Benthic Macroinvertebrate Index (BMI), Fish Assessment Index (FAI), and random forest regression, which can capture nonlinear and complex relationships with limited training datasets. Our results indicate that the proportions of land cover types in riparian areas, including urban, agricultural, and forested areas, have greater impacts on the biological communities in streams than those offered by land cover spatial patterns. The proportion of forests in riparian areas has the greatest influence on the biological integrity of streams. Partial dependence plots indicate that the biological integrity of streams gradually improves until the proportion of riparian forest areas reach about 60%; it rapidly decreases until riparian urban areas reach 25%, and declines significantly when the riparian agricultural area ranges from 20% to 40%. Overall, this study highlights the importance of riparian forests in the planning, restoration, and management of streams, and suggests that partial dependence plots may serve to provide insightful quantitative criteria for defining specific objectives that managers and decision-makers can use to improve stream conditions.

Spatial Analysis of the Drivers, Characteristics, and Effects of Forest Fragmentation

Building on the existing literature, this study examines whether specific drivers of forest fragmentation cause particular fragmentation characteristics, and how these characteristics can be linked to their effects on forest-dwelling species. This research uses Landsat remote imaging to examine the changing patterns of forests. It focuses on areas which have undergone a high level of a specific fragmentation driver, in particular either agricultural expansion or commodity-driven deforestation. Seven municipalities in the states of Rondônia and Mato Grosso in Brazil are selected as case study areas, as these states experienced a high level of commodity-driven deforestation and agricultural expansion respectively. Land cover maps of each municipality are created using the Geographical Information System software ArcGIS Spatial Analyst extension. The resulting categorical maps are input into Fragstats fragmentation software to calculate quantifiable fragmentation metrics for each municipality. To determine the effects that these characteristics are likely to cause, this study uses a literature review to determine how species traits affect their responses to forest fragmentation. Results indicate that, in areas that underwent agricultural expansion, the remaining forest patches became more complex in shape with longer edges and lost a large amount of core area. This negatively affects species which are either highly dispersive or specialist to core forest habitat. In areas that underwent commodity-driven deforestation, it was more likely that forest patches would become less aggregated and create disjunct core areas. This negatively affects smaller, sedentary animals which do not naturally travel long distances. This study is significant in that it links individual fragmentation drivers to their landscape characteristics, and in turn uses these to predict effects on species with particular traits. This information will prove useful for forest managers, particularly in the case study municipalities examined in this study, in deciding which species require further protection measures. The methodology could be applied to other drivers of forest fragmentation such as forest fires.

Dynamic partitioning of tropical Indian Ocean surface waters using ocean colour data - management and modelling applications

Over the past few decades, partitioning of the surface ocean into ecologically-meaningful spatial domains has been approached using a range of data types, with the aim of improving our understanding of open ocean processes, supporting marine management decisions and constraining coupled ocean-biogeochemical models. The simplest partitioning method, which could provide low-latency information for managers at low cost, remains a purely optical classification based on ocean colour remote sensing. The question is whether such a simple approach has value. Here, the efficacy of optical classifications in constraining physical variables that modulate the epipelagic environment is tested for the tropical Indian Ocean, with a focus on the Chagos marine protected area (MPA). Using remote sensing data, it was found that optical classes corresponded to distinctive ranges of wind speed, wind stress curl, sea surface temperature, sea surface slope, sea surface height anomaly and geostrophic currents (Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc Tukey honestly significantly different tests, α = 0.01). Between-class differences were significant for a set of sub-domains that resolved zonal and meridional gradients across the MPA and Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge, whereas between-domain differences were only significant for the north-south gradient (PERMANOVA, α = 0.01). A preliminary test of between-class differences in surface CO₂ concentrations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 demonstrated a small decrease in mean pCO₂ with increasing chlorophyll (chl), from 418 to 398 ppm. Simple optical class maps therefore provide an overview of growth conditions, the spatial distribution of resources - from which habitat fragmentation metrics can be calculated, and carbon sequestration potential. Within the 17 year study period, biotic variables were found to have decreased at up to 0.025%a^-1 for all optical classes, which is slower than reported elsewhere (Mann-Kendall-Sen regression, α = 0.01). Within the MPA, positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions and negative Southern Oscillation Indices were weakly associated with decreasing chl, fluorescence line height (FLH), eddy kinetic energy, easterly wind stress and wind stress curl, and with increasing FLH/chl, sea surface temperature, SSH gradients and northerly wind stress, consistent with reduced surface mixing and increased stratification. The optical partitioning scheme described here can be applied in Google Earth Engine to support management decisions at daily or monthly scales, and potential applications are discussed.

Species range shifts in response to climate change and human pressure for the world's largest amphibian

The Chinese giant salamander, Andrias davidianus, the world's largest amphibian, is critically endangered and has an extremely unique evolutionary history. Therefore, this species represents a global conservation priority and will be impacted by future climate and human pressures. Understanding the range and response to environmental change of this species is a priority for the identification of targeted conservation activities. We projected future range shifts of the Chinese giant salamander under the independent and combined impacts of climate change and human population density (HPD) variations by using ensemble species distribution models. We further evaluated the sustainability of existing nature reserves and identified priority areas for the mitigation or prevention of such pressures. Both climate change and increasing HPD tended to reduce the species range, with the latter leading to greater range losses and fragmentation of the range. Notably, 65.6%, 18.0% and 18.4% of the range loss were attributed solely to HPD change, solely to climate change and to their overlapping impacts, respectively. Overall, the average total and net losses of the species range were 52.5% and 23.4%, respectively, and HPD and climate changes were responsible for 71.4% and 28.6% of the net losses, respectively. We investigated the stability of the remaining species range and found that half of the nature reserves are likely vulnerable, with 57.1% and 66.7% of them likely to lose their conservation value in 2050 and 2070, respectively. To effectively protect this salamander, conservation policies should address both pressures simultaneously, especially considering the negative impact of human pressures in both contemporary periods and the near future. The species range shifts over space and time projected by this research could help guide long-term surveys and the sustainable conservation of wild habitats and populations of this ancient and endangered amphibian.

Global trends in mangrove forest fragmentation

Fragmentation is a major driver of ecosystem degradation, reducing the capacity of habitats to provide many important ecosystem services. Mangrove ecosystem services, such as erosion prevention, shoreline protection and mitigation of climate change (through carbon sequestration), depend on the size and arrangement of forest patches, but we know little about broad-scale patterns of mangrove forest fragmentation. Here we conduct a multi-scale analysis using global estimates of mangrove density and regional drivers of mangrove deforestation to map relationships between habitat loss and fragmentation. Mangrove fragmentation was ubiquitous; however, there are geographic disparities between mangrove loss and fragmentation; some regions, like Cambodia and the southern Caribbean, had relatively little loss, but their forests have been extensively fragmented. In Southeast Asia, a global hotspot of mangrove loss, the conversion of forests to aquaculture and rice plantations were the biggest drivers of loss (>50%) and fragmentation. Surprisingly, conversion of forests to oil palm plantations, responsible for >15% of all deforestation in Southeast Asia, was only weakly correlated with mangrove fragmentation. Thus, the management of different deforestation drivers may increase or decrease fragmentation. Our findings suggest that large scale monitoring of mangrove forests should also consider fragmentation. This work highlights that regional priorities for conservation based on forest loss rates can overlook fragmentation and associated loss of ecosystem functionality.

Analysis of the Habitat Fragmentation of Ecosystems in Belize Using Landscape Metrics

Landscape metrics have been of game changing importance in the analysis of ecosystems’ composition and landscape cohesion. With the increasing urban and agricultural expansion, the natural flora and fauna of many highly diverse areas have been degraded. Fragmentation of ecosystems and habitats have stressed the biodiversity of Belize. To understand the dynamics of this change, a study was conducted using three moderately separate years of ecosystem landscape data. The metrics used for the analysis were area-weighted mean shape index (AWMSI), mean shape index (MSI), edge density (ED), mean patch size (MPS), number of patches (NUMP), and class area (CA). These metrics were produced for the years 2001, 2011, and 2017. The classes of agricultural use, lowland savannas, mangroves and littoral forests, urban, and wetlands were the subjects for analysis. Using the GIS extension Patch Analyst, parametric runs were performed. From these results, a one-way ANOVA test of the NUMP, Tukey HSD test, and Scheffé Multiple Comparison test were performed. The results indicate that there has been significant habitat fragmentation, especially from the years 2001 to 2011. Agricultural areas increased by 19.37% in just 10 years, with the NUMP of some habitats increasing by 284%. The results also show fluctuation in ED and a decrease in overall MPS, all indicating high fragmentation. These changes have been mostly induced due to the expansion of agricultural activities and urbanization, especially in the northern parts of Belize. It is imperative that additional policies be implemented to deter the effects of habitat fragmentation upon the existing ecosystems of Belize and elsewhere.

Characterizing the Landscape Structure of Urban Wetlands Using Terrain and Landscape Indices

Several studies have shown human impacts on urban wetlands. These impacts are mostly studied at broad scales, which may generalize and aggregate important information needed for landscape quantification or terrain analysis. This situation can weakly or inappropriately address the structure of wetland landscapes, thus affecting the assessment of the quantities and qualities of terrestrial wetland habitats. To address these issues for urban wetland dynamics, this study proposes the use of landscape and terrain indices to characterize the landscape structure of urban wetlands at a fine scale in order to assess its usefulness in contributing to wildlife sustainability. To achieve this goal, secondary terrain attribute data are integrated with an object-based satellite image classification at the wetland and watershed level. The result reveals a general swell in wetland coverage at the watershed level. Further analysis shows the size and shape complexities, and edge irregularities are increased significantly at the patch level but slightly at the watershed level. Terrain analysis further reveals a potential increase in wetness and decrease in stream power vulnerability for most of the major wetlands under study. These results suggest that terrain and landscape indices are effective in characterizing the structure of urban wetlands that supports socio-ecological sustainability.

Relevance of the Cell Neighborhood Size in Landscape Metrics Evaluation and Free or Open Source Software Implementations

Landscape metrics constitute one of the main tools for the study of the changes of the landscape and of the ecological structure of a region. The most popular software for landscape metrics evaluation is FRAGSTATS, which is free to use but does not have free or open source software (FOSS). Therefore, FOSS implementations, such as QGIS’s LecoS plugin and GRASS’ r.li modules suite, were developed. While metrics are defined in the same way, the “cell neighborhood” parameter, specifying the configuration of the moving window used for the analysis, is managed differently: FRAGSTATS can use values of 4 or 8 (8 is default), LecoS uses 8 and r.li 4. Tests were performed to evaluate the landscape metrics variability depending on the “cell neighborhood” values: some metrics, such as “edge density” and “landscape shape index”, do not change, other, for example “patch number”, “patch density”, and “mean patch area”, vary up to 100% for real maps and 500% for maps built to highlight this variation. A review of the scientific literature was carried out to check how often the value of the “cell neighborhood” parameter is explicitly declared. A method based on the “aggregation index” is proposed to estimate the effect of the uncertainty on the “cell neighborhood” parameter on landscape metrics for different maps.

Home range size scales to habitat amount and increasing fragmentation in a mobile woodland specialist

Studies of impacts of fragmentation have focused heavily on measures of species presence or absence in fragments, or species richness in relation to fragmentation, but have often not considered the effects of fragmentation on ranging behavior of individual species. Effective management will benefit from knowledge of the effects of fragmentation on space use by species.We investigated how a woodland specialist, the eastern bettong (Bettongia gaimardi), responded to fragmentation in an agricultural landscape, the Midlands region of Tasmania, Australia. We tested whether individual bettongs could adjust home range size to maintain access to essential habitat across three sites differing in degree of fragmentation.We used GPS tracking to measure the home ranges of individual bettongs. Our models tested the effects of habitat aggregation and habitat amount measured at two radii comparable to a typical core range (250 m) and a typical home range (750 m), and habitat quality and sex on individual home range. We also tested the relationship between fragmentation on woodland used to determine whether individuals could compensate for fragmentation.Depending on the spatial scale of fragmentation measured, bettongs altered their movement to meet their habitat requirements. Our top model suggested that at the core range scale, individuals had smaller ranges when habitat is more aggregated. The second model showed support for habitat amount at the core range, suggesting individuals can occupy larger areas when there is a higher amount of habitat, regardless of configuration.Species that are relatively mobile may be able to compensate for the effects of habitat fragmentation by altering their movement. We highlight that any patch size is of value within a home range and management efforts should focus on maintaining sufficient habitat especially at the core range scale.

Remote estimation of overwintering home ranges in an elusive, migratory nocturnal bird

Due to a long running research bias toward the breeding season, there are major gaps in knowledge on the basic nonbreeding ecology of many species, preventing a full-annual cycle focus in ecology and conservation. Exacerbating this problem is the fact that many species are extremely difficult to detect outside of breeding. Here, we demonstrate a partial solution to this problem by using archival GPS tags to examine the overwintering ecology of a migratory nocturnal bird, the eastern whip-poor-will (Antrostomus vociferous). We deployed tags on 21 individuals and were able to recover 11 (52%) one year later. Tags collected high precision (approx. 10 m) points throughout the nonbreeding period. With continuous time movement models, we used these data to estimate overwintering home ranges. All individuals exhibited at least one bounded home range during this phase of the annual cycle, three of eleven had two wintering locations, and home range area ranged from 0.50 to 10.85 ha. All overwintering home ranges contained closed-canopy forest land cover (42%-100%), and no other land cover type represented >40% of any home range. We found some evidence, with caveats, that total edge within the landscape surrounding the home range was negatively related to home range area. The prevalence of contiguous closed-canopy forest cover in overwintering home ranges contrasts with apparent breeding habitat preferences, which includes clear-cuts and other, more open, habitats. This study is the first to reveal key aspects of overwintering space use in this species by using archival GPS to overcome both logistical and methodological limitations. Expanded use of such technology is critical to gathering basic ecological and distributional data, necessary for achieving a more complete understanding of full-annual cycles of animal populations.

The Extent of Infrastructure Causing Fragmentation in the Hydrocarbon Basin in the Arid and Semi-Arid Zones of Patagonia (Argentina)

Fragmentation is a disruption in the connectivity of landscapes. The aims of this paper are (i) to quantitatively assess the fragmentation rates in three landscape units located in a hydrocarbon basin, and (ii) to model their behavior between 2001 and 2013 using landscape metrics at different scales of resolution. The following metrics were selected using principal component analysis (PCA): The Clumpiness Index (CLUMPY), patch density (PD), perimeter-area fractal dimension (PAFRAC) and effective mesh size (MESH). Results from our investigations pointed out that hydrocarbon activity increased the fragmentation at the sites. In particular, the CLUMPY index increased in all three landscape units, the average of PD decreased from 60 to 14 patches per 100 hectares, whereas the mean of MESH was quite constant, however, due to oil production, it decreased mainly in the coastal valleys. Finally, the PAFRAC also decreased at sites with oil production, being more evident in the plateau and coastal canyons. As a whole, outputs from our analyses clearly pointed out that the monitoring of landscape fragmentation trends in arid and semi-arid zones can be successfully achieved using metrics derived from satellite spectral information.

Characterising extinction debt following habitat fragmentation using neutral theory

Habitat loss leads to species extinctions, both immediately and over the long term as 'extinction debt' is repaid. The same quantity of habitat can be lost in different spatial patterns with varying habitat fragmentation. How this translates to species loss remains an open problem requiring an understanding of the interplay between community dynamics and habitat structure across temporal and spatial scales. Here we develop formulas that characterise extinction debt in a spatial neutral model after habitat loss and fragmentation. Central to our formulas are two new metrics, which depend on properties of the taxa and landscape: 'effective area', measuring the remaining number of individuals and 'effective connectivity', measuring individuals' ability to disperse through fragmented habitat. This formalises the conventional wisdom that habitat area and habitat connectivity are the two critical requirements for long-term preservation of biodiversity. Our approach suggests that mechanistic fragmentation metrics help resolve debates about fragmentation and species loss.

Impacts by expansion of human settlements on nature reserves in China

Expansion of human settlements affects nature reserves in various ways. Planning ahead can help to divert or mitigate the impacts but a good understanding of these impacts is a prerequisite. In this study, we estimated the impacts caused by the expansion of human settlements on nature reserves in China by 2050 under different development and conservation scenarios. Our results show that 5016 km² of nature reserves may be encroached by the expansion of human settlements under the scenario of high growth and weak protection, a ten-fold increase compared to 2010. In addition, new settlements may fragment landscapes in 243 nature reserves and increase the level of fragmentation in 109 nature reserves. Furthermore, expansion of human settlements in surrounding areas may expose 164 nature reserves to threats of human activities and increase the threat levels to 540 nature reserves. The impacts will be lower if protection is stronger or economic growth is slower. Among all nature reserves, those administered at the county level will be affected the most. Nature reserves that protect forests and inland wetlands will be affected more than nature reserves protecting other objects. Nature reserves in East and South China will be influenced more than reserves in other regions. Findings from China show that the expansion of human settlements poses serious challenges to nature reserves in the future, especially in places where economic growth is fast and nature reserves are weakly protected. Proactive conservation strategies have to be developed and implemented forcefully to manage these impacts. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the potential conflict between human settlements and nature reserves.

Geographic context affects the landscape change and fragmentation caused by wind energy facilities

Wind energy generation affects landscapes as new roads, pads, and transmission lines are constructed. Limiting the landscape change from these facilities likely minimizes impacts to biodiversity and sensitive wildlife species. We examined the effects of wind energy facilities’ geographic context on changes in landscape patterns using three metrics: portion of undeveloped land, core area index, and connectance index. We digitized 39 wind facilities and the surrounding land cover and measured landscape pattern before and after facility construction using the amount, core area, and connectivity of undeveloped land within one km around newly constructed turbines and roads. New facilities decreased the amount of undeveloped land by 1.8% while changes in metrics of landscape pattern ranged from 50 to 140%. Statistical models indicated pre-construction development was a key factor explaining the impact of new wind facilities on landscape metrics, with pre-construction road networks, turbine spacing, and topography having smaller influences. As the proportion of developed land around facilities increased, a higher proportion of the facility utilized pre-construction developed land and a lower density of new roads were built, resulting in smaller impacts to undeveloped landscapes. Building of new road networks was also a predictor of landscape fragmentation. Utilizing existing development and carefully placing turbines may provide opportunities to minimize the impacts of new wind energy facilities.

All-Male Groups in Asian Elephants: A Novel, Adaptive Social Strategy in Increasingly Anthropogenic Landscapes of Southern India

Male Asian elephants are known to adopt a high-risk high-gain foraging strategy by venturing into agricultural areas and feeding on nutritious crops in order to improve their reproductive fitness. We hypothesised that the high risks to survival posed by increasingly urbanising and often unpredictable production landscapes may necessitate the emergence of behavioural strategies that allow male elephants to persist in such landscapes. Using 1445 photographic records of 248 uniquely identified male Asian elephants over a 23-month period, we show that male Asian elephants display striking emergent behaviour, particularly the formation of stable, long-term all-male groups, typically in non-forested or human-modified and highly fragmented areas. They remained solitary or associated in mixed-sex groups, however, within forested habitats. These novel, large all-male associations, may constitute a unique life history strategy for male elephants in the high-risk but resource-rich production landscapes of southern India. This may be especially true for the adolescent males, which seemed to effectively improve their body condition by increasingly exploiting anthropogenic resources when in all-male groups. This observation further supports our hypothesis that such emergent behaviours are likely to constitute an adaptive strategy for male Asian elephants that may be forced to increasingly confront anthropogenically intrusive environments.