Impacts of recent climate change on terrestrial flora and fauna: Some emerging Australian examples

Conserving the critically endangered Hangul (Cervus hanglu hanglu)-future distribution and efficiency of protected areas under climate change

Climate change is impacting species distribution at a global scale, posing a significant threat to biodiversity. Special attention needs to be given to threatened species like the Kashmir Red Deer (Cervus hanglu hanglu). Despite being a symbol of global conservation, holistic management is necessary for decision-making and species recovery. A comprehensive study mapping of the potential habitat changes for Hangul in the Dachigam landscape is crucial to enhance conservation efforts. We examined the impacts of expected global warming on the distribution of Hangul by employing a maximum entropy approach to assess species range shift. Hangul was anticipated to be sensitive to upcoming worldwide warming, and it was expected that this would increase its risk of local extinction. In the model, the severity of repercussions from climate change grew as the time horizon increased and decreased the species' suitable habitat. By 2080, predictions indicated a gradual reduction in range or, in some scenarios, the complete loss of habitat, regardless of the potential for Hangul to disperse indefinitely. We estimated that the overall very highly suitable habitat in the protected region is currently 2220 ha, while its vast distribution area in the unprotected zone is 30,445 ha, emphasizing the necessity of establishing corridor connectivity between fragmented populations and promoting conservation efforts. Among various climate conditions, the core-to-edge ratio is at its highest level in the current conditions. Our study reveals two critical findings: Firstly, endangered species unique to a particular region are highly susceptible to the impacts of global warming. Secondly, when evaluating the outcomes of global warming, the highly suitable habitat is expected to shift under predicted climatic changes, with an average altitudinal migration of 700 m. Consequently, conservation strategies must consider the expected regional shifts and are designed with a clear understanding of the accuracy of projecting climate change effects.

Modeling climate change impacts and predicting future vulnerability in the Mount Kenya forest ecosystem using remote sensing and machine learning

The Mount Kenya forest ecosystem (MKFE), a crucial biodiversity hotspot and one of Kenya's key water towers, is increasingly threatened by climate change, putting its ecological integrity and vital ecosystem services at risk. Understanding the interactions between climate extremes and forest dynamics is essential for conservation planning, especially in the Mount Kenya Forest Ecosystem (MKFE), where rising temperatures and erratic rainfall are altering vegetation patterns, reducing forest resilience, and threatening both biodiversity and water security. This study integrates remote sensing and machine learning to assess historical vegetation changes and predict areas at risk in the future. Landsat imagery from 2000 to 2020 was used to derive vegetation indices comprising the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), and Bare Soil Index (BSI). Climate variables, including extreme precipitation and temperature indices, were extracted from CHIRPS and ERA5 datasets. Machine learning models, including Random Forest (RF), XGBoost, and Support Vector Machines (SVM), were trained to assess climate-vegetation relationships and predict future vegetation dynamics under the SSP245 climate scenario using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) downscaled projections. The RF model achieved high accuracy (R2 = 0.82, RMSE = 0.15) in predicting the dynamics of vegetation conditions. Model projections show a 49-55% decline in EVI across forest areas by 2040, with the most pronounced losses likely in lower montane zones, which are more sensitive to climate-induced vegetation stress. Results emphasize the critical role of precipitation in sustaining forest health and highlight the urgent need for adaptive management strategies, including afforestation, sustainable land-use planning, and policy-driven conservation efforts. This study provides a scalable framework for modelling climate impacts on forest ecosystems globally and offers actionable insights for policymakers.

No More Extinctions: Recovering Australia's Biodiversity

Most conservation programs and laws aim to prevent extinction. However, there is a gulf between such aspirations and the current reality of escalating biodiversity loss. This review focuses on efforts to prevent extinctions in Australia, but much of this consideration is likely to apply globally. As context, we consider the reasons for trying to prevent extinction, review Australia's extinction record, and note that there are likely to be many more extinctions than formally recognized. We describe recent cases where conservation actions have prevented extinction. We note that extinction is a pathway rather than solely an endpoint, and many decisions made or not made on that pathway can determine the fate of species. We conclude that all looming extinctions can and should be prevented. This will require transformational change in legislation, increased resourcing, more consideration of poorly known species, and increased societal recognition of the need to be responsible for the care of country.

Shorebirds Are Shrinking and Shape-Shifting: Declining Body Size and Lengthening Bills in the Past Half-Century

Animals are predicted to shrink and shape-shift as the climate warms, declining in size, while their appendages lengthen. Determining which types of species are undergoing these morphological changes, and why, is critical to understanding species responses to global change, including potential adaptation to climate warming. We examine body size and bill length changes in 25 shorebird species using extensive field data (> 200,000 observations) collected over 46 years (1975-2021) by community scientists. We show widespread body size declines over time, and after short-term exposure to warmer summers. Meanwhile, shorebird bills are lengthening over time but shorten after hot summers. Shrinking and shape-shifting patterns are consistent across ecologically diverse shorebirds from tropical and temperate Australia, are more pronounced in smaller species and vary according to migration behaviour. These widespread morphological changes could be explained by multiple drivers, including adaptive and maladaptive responses to nutritional stress, or by thermal adaptation to climate warming.

Habitat suitability and distribution patterns of Rouget's rail (Rougetius rougetii Guérin-méneville, 1843) in Ethiopia

Geographical distribution and diversity patterns of bird species are influenced by climate change. The Rouget's rail (Rougetius rougetii) is a ground-dwelling endemic bird species distributed in Ethiopia and Eritrea. It is a near-threatened species menaced by habitat loss, one of the main causes of population declines for bird species. The increasing effects of climate change may further threaten the species' survival. So far, the spatial distribution of this species is not fully documented. With this study, we develop current potential suitable habitat and predict the future habitat shift of R. rougetii based on environmental data such as bioclimatic variables, population density, vegetation cover, and elevation using 10 algorithms. We evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the bird's distribution and how it shifts under climate change scenarios. We used 182 records of R. rougetii from Ethiopia and nine bioclimatic, population density, vegetation cover, and elevation variables to run the 10 model algorithms. Among 10 algorithms, eight were selected for ensembling models according to their predictive abilities. The current suitable habitats for R. rougetii were predicted to cover an area of about 82,000 km2 despite being highly fragmented. The model suggested that temperature seasonality (bio4), elevation, and mean daily air temperatures of the driest quarter (bio9) contributed the most to delimiting suitable areas for this species. R. rougetii is sensitive to climate change associated with elevation, which leads shrinking distribution of suitable areas. The projected spatial and temporal pattern of habitat loss of R. rougetii suggests the importance of climate change mitigation and implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for this threatened endemic bird species.

Patterns and effects of gene flow on adaptation across spatial scales: implications for management

Gene flow can have rapid effects on adaptation and is an important evolutionary tool available when undertaking biological conservation and restoration. This tool is underused partly because of the perceived risk of outbreeding depression and loss of mean fitness when different populations are crossed. In this article, we briefly review some theory and empirical findings on how genetic variation is distributed across species ranges, describe known patterns of gene flow in nature with respect to environmental gradients, and highlight the effects of gene flow on adaptation in small or stressed populations in challenging environments (e.g., at species range limits). We then present a case study involving crosses at varying spatial scales among mountain populations of a trigger plant (Stylidium armeria: Stylidiaceae) in the Australian Alps to highlight how some issues around gene flow effects can be evaluated. We found evidence of outbreeding depression in seed production at greater geographic distances. Nevertheless, we found no evidence of maladaptive gene flow effects in likelihood of germination, plant performance (size), and performance variance, suggesting that gene flow at all spatial scales produces offspring with high adaptive potential. This case study demonstrates a path to evaluating how increasing sources of gene flow in managed wild and restored populations could identify some offspring with high fitness that could bolster the ability of populations to adapt to future environmental changes. We suggest further ways in which managers and researchers can act to understand and consider adaptive gene flow in natural and conservation contexts under rapidly changing conditions.

Climate change and the biodiversity of alpine ponds: Challenges and perspectives

Inland waters are among the most threatened biodiversity hotspots. Ponds located in alpine areas are experiencing more rapid and dramatic water temperature increases than any other biome. Despite their prevalence, alpine ponds and their biodiversity responses to climate change have been poorly explored, reflecting their small size and difficult access. To understand the effects of climate change on alpine pond biodiversity, we performed a comprehensive literature review for papers published since 1955. Through analysis of their geographic distribution, environmental features, and biodiversity values, we identified which environmental factors related to climate change would have direct or indirect effects on alpine pond biodiversity. We then synthesized this information to produce a conceptual model of the effects of climate change on alpine pond biodiversity. Increased water temperature, reduced hydroperiod, and loss of connectivity between alpine ponds were the main drivers of biodiversity geographic distribution, leading to predictable changes in spatial patterns of biodiversity. We identified three major research gaps that, if addressed, can guide conservation and restoration strategies for alpine ponds biodiversity in an uncertain future.

Loss of terrestrial biodiversity in Australia: Magnitude, causation, and response

Australia's biota is species rich, with high rates of endemism. This natural legacy has rapidly diminished since European colonization. The impacts of invasive species, habitat loss, altered fire regimes, and changed water flows are now compounded by climate change, particularly through extreme drought, heat, wildfire, and flooding. Extinction rates, already far exceeding the global average for mammals, are predicted to escalate across all taxa, and ecosystems are collapsing. These losses are symptomatic of shortcomings in resourcing, law, policy, and management. Informed by examples of advances in conservation practice from invasive species control, Indigenous land management, and citizen science, we describe interventions needed to enhance future resilience. Many characteristics of Australian biodiversity loss are globally relevant, with recovery requiring society to reframe its relationship with the environment.

Metabarcoding of fecal pellets in wild muskox populations reveals negative relationships between microbiome and diet alpha diversity

Microbiome diversity and diet composition concomitantly influence species health, fitness, immunity, and digestion. In environments where diet varies spatially and temporally, microbiome plasticity may promote rapid host adaptation to available resources. For northern ungulates in particular, metabarcoding of noninvasively collected fecal pellets presents unprecedented insights into their diverse ecological requirements and niches by clarifying the interrelationships of microbiomes, key to deriving nutrients, in context of altered forage availability in changing climates. Muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) are Arctic-adapted species that experience fluctuating qualities and quantities of vegetation. Geography and seasonality have been noted to influence microbiome composition and diversity in muskoxen, yet it is unclear how their microbiomes intersect with diet. Following observations from other species, we hypothesized increasing diet diversity would result in higher microbiome diversity in muskoxen. We assessed diet composition in muskoxen using three common plant metabarcoding markers and explored correlations with microbiome data. Patterns of dietary diversity and composition were not fully concordant among the markers used, yet all reflected the primary consumption of willows and sedges. Individuals with similar diets had more similar microbiomes, yet in contrast to most literature, yielded negative relationships between microbiome and diet alpha diversity. This negative correlation may reflect the unique capacities of muskoxen to survive solely on high-fiber Arctic forage and provide insight into their resiliency to exploit changing dietary resources in a rapidly warming Arctic altering vegetation diversity.

The effects of spring versus summer heat events on two arid zone plant species under field conditions

Heatwaves are increasingly occurring out-of-season, which may affect plants not primed for the event. Further, heat stress often coincides with water and/or nutrient stress, impairing short-term physiological function and potentially causing downstream effects on reproductive fitness. We investigated the response of water-stressed arid-zone Solanum oligacanthum and Solanum orbiculatum to spring vs summer heat stress under differing nutrient conditions. Heat stress events were imposed in open-topped chambers under in situ desert conditions. To assess short-term impacts, we measured leaf photosystem responses (F v /F m ) and membrane stability; long-term effects were compared via biomass allocation, visible damage, flowering and fruiting. Plants generally fared more poorly following summer than spring heat stress, with the exception of F v /F m . Summer heat stress caused greater membrane damage, reduced growth and survival compared with spring. Nutrient availability had a strong influence on downstream effects of heat stress, including species-specific outcomes for reproductive fitness. Overall, high temperatures during spring posed a lower threat to fitness than in severe arid summer conditions of high temperature and low water availability, which were more detrimental to plants in both the short and longer term. Our study highlights the importance of considering ecologically relevant, multiple-stressor events to understand different species responses to extreme heat.

Environmental selection, rather than neutral processes, best explain regional patterns of diversity in a tropical rainforest fish

To conserve the high functional and genetic variation in hotspots such as tropical rainforests, it is essential to understand the forces driving and maintaining biodiversity. We asked to what extent environmental gradients and terrain structure affect morphological and genomic variation across the wet tropical distribution of an Australian rainbowfish, Melanotaenia splendida splendida. We used an integrative riverscape genomics and morphometrics framework to assess the influence of these factors on both putative adaptive and non-adaptive spatial divergence. We found that neutral genetic population structure was largely explainable by restricted gene flow among drainages. However, environmental associations revealed that ecological variables had a similar power to explain overall genetic variation, and greater power to explain body shape variation, than the included neutral covariables. Hydrological and thermal variables were the strongest environmental predictors and were correlated with traits previously linked to heritable habitat-associated dimorphism in rainbowfishes. In addition, climate-associated genetic variation was significantly associated with morphology, supporting heritability of shape variation. These results support the inference of evolved functional differences among localities, and the importance of hydroclimate in early stages of diversification. We expect that substantial evolutionary responses will be required in tropical rainforest endemics to mitigate local fitness losses due to changing climates.

Molecular insights into the dynamics of species invasion by hybridisation in Tasmanian eucalypts

In plants where seed dispersal is limited compared with pollen dispersal, hybridisation may enhance gene exchange and species dispersal. We provide genetic evidence of hybridisation contributing to the expansion of the rare Eucalyptus risdonii into the range of the widespread Eucalyptus amygdalina. These closely related tree species are morphologically distinct, and observations suggest that natural hybrids occur along their distribution boundaries and as isolated trees or in small patches within the range of E. amygdalina. Hybrid phenotypes occur outside the range of normal dispersal for E. risdonii seed, yet in some hybrid patches small individuals resembling E. risdonii occur and are hypothesised to be a result of backcrossing. Using 3362 genome-wide SNPs assessed from 97 individuals of E. risdonii and E. amygdalina and 171 hybrid trees, we show that (i) isolated hybrids match the genotypes expected of F₁ /F₂ hybrids, (ii) there is a continuum in the genetic composition among the isolated hybrid patches from patches dominated by F₁ /F₂ -like genotypes to those dominated by E. risdonii-backcross genotypes, and (iii) the E. risdonii-like phenotypes in the isolated hybrid patches are most-closely related to proximal larger hybrids. These results suggest that the E. risdonii phenotype has been resurrected in isolated hybrid patches established from pollen dispersal, providing the first steps in its invasion of suitable habitat by long-distance pollen dispersal and complete introgressive displacement of E. amygdalina. Such expansion accords with the population demographics, common garden performance data, and climate modelling which favours E. risdonii and highlights a role of interspecific hybridisation in climate change adaptation and species expansion.

Effects of Climatic Change on Potential Distribution of Spogostylum ocyale (Diptera: Bombyliidae) in the Middle East Using Maxent Modelling

Spogostylum ocyale (Wiedemann 1828) is a large robust species of bee fly (family Bombyliidae), known to be a larval ectoparasitoid as well as an important flower pollinator as an adult. This species has become extremely rare or has disappeared from many of its historic habitats due to substantial changes in floral and faunal compositions in recent years. Climate change and urbanisation, together with other anthropogenic activities, may be to blame for these changes. Distribution modelling based on environmental variables together with known occurrences is a powerful tool in analytical biology, with applications in ecology, evolution, conservation management, epidemiology and other fields. Based on climatological and topographic data, the current and future distributions of the parasitoid in the Middle East region was predicted using the maximum entropy model (Maxent). The model performance was satisfactory (AUC mean = 0.834; TSS mean = 0.606) and revealed a good potential distribution for S. ocyale featured by the selected factors. A set of seven predictors was chosen from 19 bioclimatic variables and one topographic variable. The results show that the distribution of S. ocyale is mainly affected by the maximum temperature of the warmest period (Bio5) and temperature annual range (Bio7). According to the habitat suitability map, coastal regions with warm summers and cold winters had high to medium suitability. However, future scenarios predict a progressive decline in the extent of suitable habitats with global climate warming. These findings lead to robust conservation management measures in current or future conservation planning.

The impact of climate change on three indicator Galliformes species in the northern highlands of Pakistan

The rise in global temperature is one of the main threats of extinction to many vulnerable species by the twenty-first century. The negative impacts of climate change on the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition. Range shifts and range reduction in the forested landscapes will dramatically affect the distribution of forest-dwelling species, including the Galliformes (ground birds). Three Galliformes (e.g., Lophophorus impejanus, Pucrasia macrolopha, and Tragopan melanocephalus) are indicator species of the environment and currently distributed in NHP. For this study, we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to simulate the current (average for 1960-1990) and future (in 2050 and 2070) distributions of the species using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 (moderate carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (peak carbon emission scenario). Our results indicated that (i) under all three climate scenarios, species distribution was predicted to both reduce and shift towards higher altitudes. (ii) Across the provinces in the NHP, the species were predicted to average lose around one-third (35%) in 2050 and one-half (47%) by 2070 of the current suitable habitat. (iii) The maximum area of climate refugia was projected between the altitudinal range of 2000 to 4000 m and predicted to shift towards higher altitudes primarily > 3000 m in the future. Our results help inform management plans and conservation strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on three indicator Galliforms species in the NHP.

Mistletoes could moderate drought impacts on birds, but are themselves susceptible to drought-induced dieback

Mistletoes are hemiparasitic plants and keystone species in many ecosystems globally. Given predicted increases in drought frequency and intensity, mistletoes may be crucial for moderating drought impacts on community structure. Dependent on host vascular flows, mistletoes can succumb to stress when water availability falls, making them susceptible to mortality during drought. We counted mistletoe across greater than 350 000 km² of southeastern Australia and conducted standardized bird surveys between 2016 and 2021, spanning a major drought event in 2018-2019. We aimed to identify predictors of mistletoe abundance and mortality and determine whether mistletoes might moderate drought impacts on woodland birds. Live mistletoe abundance varied with tree species composition, land use and presence of mistletoebirds. Mistletoe mortality was widespread, consistent with high 2018/2019 summer temperatures, low 2019/2020 summer rainfall and the interaction between summer temperatures and rainfall in 2019/2020. The positive association between surviving mistletoes and woodland birds was greatest in the peak drought breeding seasons of 2018/2019 and 2019/2020, particularly for small residents and insectivores. Paradoxically, mistletoes could moderate drought impacts on birds, but are themselves vulnerable to drought-induced mortality. An improved understanding of the drivers and dynamics of mistletoe mortality is needed to address potential cascading trophic impacts associated with mistletoe die-off.

Dramatic impact of future climate change on the genetic diversity and distribution of ecologically relevant Western Mediterranean Carex (Cyperaceae)

Anticipating the evolutionary responses of species to ongoing climate change is essential to propose effective management and conservation measures. The Western Mediterranean Basin constitutes one of the hotspots of biodiversity where the effects of climate change are expected to be more dramatic. Plant species with ecological relevance constitute ideal models to evaluate and predict the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Here we investigate these impacts through the spatio-temporal comparison of genetic diversity/structure (AFLPs), potential distribution under different future scenarios of climate change, and ecological space in two Western Mediterranean sister species of genus Carex. Both species are ecologically key in their riparian habitats, but display contrasting distribution patterns, with one widespread in the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa (C. reuteriana), while the other (C. panormitana) is a restricted, probably endangered, Central Mediterranean endemic. At present, we found a strong genetic structure driven by geography in both species, and lower values of genetic diversity and a narrower ecological space in C. panormitana than in C. reuteriana, while the allelic rarity was higher in the former than in C. reuteriana subspecies. Future projections predict an overall dramatic reduction of suitable areas for both species under all climate change scenarios, which could be almost total for C. panormitana. In addition, gene diversity was inferred to decrease in all taxa, with genetic structure reinforcing in C. reuteriana by the loss of admixture among populations. Our findings stress the need for a reassessment of C. panormitana conservation status under IUCN Red List criteria and the implementation of conservation measures.

Myrtaceae in Australia: Use of Cryobiotechnologies for the Conservation of a Significant Plant Family under Threat

The Myrtaceae is a very large and diverse family containing a number of economically and ecologically valuable species. In Australia, the family contains approximately 1700 species from 70 genera and is structurally and floristically dominant in many diverse ecosystems. In addition to threats from habitat fragmentation and increasing rates of natural disasters, infection by myrtle rust caused by Austropuccinia psidii is of significant concern to Australian Myrtaceae species. Repeated infections of new growth have caused host death and suppressed host populations by preventing seed set. Although most Myrtaceae species demonstrate orthodox seed storage behavior, exceptional species such as those with desiccation sensitive seed or from myrtle rust-suppressed populations require alternate conservation strategies such as those offered by cryobiotechnology. Targeting seven key Australian genera, we reviewed the available literature for examples of cryobiotechnology utilized for conservation of Myrtaceae. While there were only limited examples of successful cryopreservation for a few genera in this family, successful cryopreservation of both shoot tips and embryonic axes suggest that cryobiotechnology provides a viable alternative for the conservation of exceptional species and a potential safe storage method for the many Myrtaceae species under threat from A. psidii.

'Fly to a Safer North': Distributional Shifts of the Orchid Ophrys insectifera L. Due to Climate Change

Numerous orchid species around the world have already been affected by the ongoing climate change, displaying phenological alterations and considerable changes to their distributions. The fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.) is a well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, with a broad distribution across the continent. This study explores the effects of climate change on the range of O. insectifera, using a species distribution models (SDMs) framework that encompasses different climatic models and scenarios for the near- and long-term future. The species' environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards (as expected) but downhill (contrary to usual expectations) in the future. In addition, an overall range contraction is predicted under all investigated combinations of climatic models and scenarios. While this is moderate overall, it includes some regions of severe loss and other areas with major gains. Specifically, O. insectifera is projected to experience major area loss in its southern reaches (the Balkans, Italy and Spain), while it will expand its northern limits to North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries exhibiting the largest gains.

Expansion of the rare Eucalyptus risdonii under climate change through hybridization with a closely related species despite hybrid inferiority

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hybridization is increasingly recognized as an integral part of the dynamics of species range expansion and contraction. Thus, it is important to understand the reproductive barriers between co-occurring species. Extending previous studies that argued that the rare Eucalyptus risdonii was expanding into the range of the surrounding E. amygdalina by both seed and pollen dispersal, we here investigate the long-term fitness of both species and their hybrids and whether expansion is continuing.

METHODS

We assessed the survival of phenotypes representing a continuum between the two pure species in a natural hybrid swarm after 29 years, along with seedling recruitment. The performance of pure species as well as of artificial and natural hybrids was also assessed over 28 years in a common garden trial.

KEY RESULTS

In the hybrid zone, E. amygdalina adults showed greater mortality than E. risdonii, and the current seedling cohort is still dominated by E. risdonii phenotypes. Morphologically intermediate individuals appeared to be the least fit. Similar results were observed after growing artificial first-generation and natural hybrids alongside pure species families in a common garden trial. Here, the survival, reproduction, health and growth of the intermediate hybrids were significantly less than those of either pure species, consistent with hybrid inferiority, although this did not manifest until later reproductive ages. Among the variable progeny of natural intermediate hybrids, the most E. risdonii-like phenotypes were the most fit.

CONCLUSIONS

This study contributes to the increasing number of reports of hybrid inferiority in Eucalyptus, suggesting that post-zygotic barriers contribute to the maintenance of species integrity even between closely related species. However, with fitness rapidly recovered following backcrossing, it is argued that hybridization can still be an important evolutionary process, in the present case appearing to contribute to the range expansion of the rare E. risdonii in response to climate change.

Late Holocene climate anomaly concurrent with fire activity and ecosystem shifts in the eastern Australian Highlands

The alpine area of the Australian mainland is highly sensitive to climate and environmental change, and potentially vulnerable to ecosystem tipping points. Over the next two decades the Australian alpine region is predicted to experience temperature increases of at least 1 °C, coupled with a substantial decrease in snow cover. Extending the short instrumental record in these regions is imperative to put future change into context, and potentially provide analogues of warming. We reconstructed past temperatures, using a lipid biomarker palaeothermometer technique and mercury flux changes for the past 3500 years from the sediments of Club Lake, a high-altitude alpine tarn in the Snowy Mountains, southeastern Australia. Using a multi-proxy framework, including pollen and charcoal analyses, high-resolution geochemistry, and ancient microbial community composition, supported by high-resolution ²¹⁰Pb and AMS ¹⁴C dating, we investigated local and regional ecological and environmental changes occurring in response to changes in temperature. We find the region experienced a general warming trend over the last 3500 years, with a pronounced climate anomaly occurring between 1000 and 1600 cal yrs. BP. Shifts in vegetation took place during this warm period, characterised by a decline in alpine species and an increase in open woodland taxa which co-occurred with an increase in regional fire activity. Given the narrow altitudinal band of Australian alpine vegetation, any future warming has the potential to result in the extinction of alpine species, including several endemic to the area, as treelines are driven to higher elevations. These findings suggest ongoing conservation efforts will be needed to protect the vulnerable alpine environments from the combined threats of climate changes, fire and invasive species.

Exposure of Helicoverpa punctigera pupae to extreme temperatures for extended periods negatively impacts on adult population dynamics and reproductive output

Understanding the impact that heat stress has on critical life stages of an organism is essential when assessing population responses to extreme events. Heat stress may occur as repeated small-scale events or as a single prolonged event, which may cause different outcomes to the organism. Here, we subjected Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) pupae to two temperatures (44.2 °C and 43 °C) and two exposure treatments - a single 3-h prolonged exposure prolonged and three repeated 1-h exposure period with 24 h recovery time between bouts - to assess the biological traits of individuals. The maximum temperatures were used as they were just below the critical thermal maximum (CTmax) 47.3 °C ± 0.3 °C of pupae for which they could survive exposure. Adults in the prolonged and repeated heat-stressed treatments had 1.70 and 3.34 more days to emergence and 1.57 and 3.30 days extended life span compared to those kept under a constant 25 °C temperature (control treatment). Both pre-oviposition and oviposition periods were extended in the heat-stressed groups. Fecundity in the prolonged and repeated heat-stressed females was reduced by 34.7% and 65.5% eggs in the 43 °C treatment group and by 94.3% and 93.6% eggs in the 44.2 °C treatment group compared to the control group. No eggs from females in either the prolonged and repeated heat-stress groups hatched. We establish that heat stress on pupae can influence the population dynamics of H. punctigera by reducing fecundity as well as extending the pre oviposition period, and affecting adult development. Also, as heat exposure on the parent generation resulted in no offspring production, it is critical to assess cross-generational responses to extreme heat stress.

Land use planning to support climate change adaptation in threatened plant communities

Among the many causes of habitat loss, urbanization coupled with climate change has produced some of the greatest local extinction rates and has led to the loss of many native species. Managing native vegetation in a rapidly expanding urban setting requires land management strategies that are cognizant of these impacts and how species and communities may adapt to a future climate. Here, we demonstrate how identifying climate refugia for threatened vegetation communities in an urban matrix can be used to support management decisions by local government authorities under the dual pressures of urban expansion and climate change. This research was focused on a local government area in New South Wales, Australia, that is undergoing significant residential, commercial and agricultural expansion resulting in the transition of native forest to other more intensive land-uses. Our results indicate that the key drivers of change from native vegetation to urban and agriculture classes were population density and the proximity to urban areas. We found two of the most cleared vegetation community types are physically restricted to land owned or managed by council, suggesting their long-term ecological viability is uncertain under a warming climate. We propose that land use planning decisions must recognize the compounding spatial and temporal pressures of urban development, land clearing and climate change, and how current policy responses, such as biodiversity offsetting, can respond positively to habitat shifts in order to secure the longevity of important ecological communities.

Shape-shifting: changing animal morphologies as a response to climatic warming

Many animal appendages, such as avian beaks and mammalian ears, can be used to dissipate excess body heat. Allen's rule, wherein animals in warmer climates have larger appendages to facilitate more efficient heat exchange, reflects this. We find that there is widespread evidence of 'shape-shifting' (changes in appendage size) in endotherms in response to climate change and its associated climatic warming. We re-examine studies of morphological change over time within a thermoregulatory context, finding evidence that temperature can be a strong predictor of morphological change independently of, or combined with, other environmental changes. Last, we discuss how Allen's rule, the degree of temperature change, and other ecological factors facilitate morphological change and make predictions about what animals will show shape-shifting.

Predicting species and community responses to global change using structured expert judgement: An Australian mountain ecosystems case study

Conservation managers are under increasing pressure to make decisions about the allocation of finite resources to protect biodiversity under a changing climate. However, the impacts of climate and global change drivers on species are outpacing our capacity to collect the empirical data necessary to inform these decisions. This is particularly the case in the Australian Alps which have already undergone recent changes in climate and experienced more frequent large-scale bushfires. In lieu of empirical data, we use a structured expert elicitation method (the IDEA protocol) to estimate the change in abundance and distribution of nine vegetation groups and 89 Australian alpine and subalpine species by the year 2050. Experts predicted that most alpine vegetation communities would decline in extent by 2050; only woodlands and heathlands are predicted to increase in extent. Predicted species-level responses for alpine plants and animals were highly variable and uncertain. In general, alpine plants spanned the range of possible responses, with some expected to increase, decrease or not change in cover. By contrast, almost all animal species are predicted to decline or not change in abundance or elevation range; more species with water-centric life-cycles are expected to decline in abundance than other species. While long-term ecological data will always be the gold standard for informing the future of biodiversity, the method and outcomes outlined here provide a pragmatic and coherent basis upon which to start informing conservation policy and management in the face of rapid change and a paucity of data.

Impact of climate change on Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) and its autumn diet in the northern highlands of Pakistan

Approximately 20%-30% of plant and animal species are at risk of extinction by the end of the 21st century owing to climate change. Range shifts and range contractions in plant species will dramatically affect the distribution of animals relying on them for food and shelter. The negative impacts of climate change on forested landscapes of the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition and distribution. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus), a forest-dwelling species, primarily depends on plants for foraging, and is assumed to be affected by climate change in NHP. Scat analyses and indigenous knowledge from Machiara National Park revealed the maximum consumption of Quercus species (natural food) and Zea mays (human grown food) by the Asiatic black bear in autumn season. We collected the occurrence data of the Asiatic black bear and its commonly used food (three Quercus spp.) in the NHP. We used the MaxEnt model to simulate current and future (in 2050 and 2070) distribution of the species under RCP4.5 (medium carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (extreme carbon emission scenario). The results predict range reduction and extreme fragmentation in the habitats of all the Quercus spp. Besides, a dramatic decrease in the suitable (SH) and very highly suitable (HSH) habitats was predicted in the future. Range shift and range reduction of Quercus spp. may interrupt the denning chronology of Asiatic black bears, escalate the human-black bear conflicts and local extirpation of the species. Given the extent and magnitude of climate change, it will likely not be enough to focus solely on the conservation of the Asiatic black bear. We need more dynamic planning aiming at mitigating the effect of climate change in forested landscapes including the Quercus forests.

Genomic Approaches for Conservation Management in Australia under Climate Change

Conservation genetics has informed threatened species management for several decades. With the advent of advanced DNA sequencing technologies in recent years, it is now possible to monitor and manage threatened populations with even greater precision. Climate change presents a number of threats and challenges, but new genomics data and analytical approaches provide opportunities to identify critical evolutionary processes of relevance to genetic management under climate change. Here, we discuss the applications of such approaches for threatened species management in Australia in the context of climate change, identifying methods of facilitating viability and resilience in the face of extreme environmental stress. Using genomic approaches, conservation management practices such as translocation, targeted gene flow, and gene-editing can now be performed with the express intention of facilitating adaptation to current and projected climate change scenarios in vulnerable species, thus reducing extinction risk and ensuring the protection of our unique biodiversity for future generations. We discuss the current barriers to implementing conservation genomic projects and the efforts being made to overcome them, including communication between researchers and managers to improve the relevance and applicability of genomic studies. We present novel approaches for facilitating adaptive capacity and accelerating natural selection in species to encourage resilience in the face of climate change.

No water, no mating: Connecting dots from behaviour to pathways

Insects hold considerable ecological and agricultural importance making it vital to understand the factors impacting their reproductive output. Environmental stressors are examples of such factors which have a substantial and significant influence on insect reproductive fitness. Insects are also ectothermic and small in size which makes them even more susceptible to environmental stresses. The present study assesses the consequence of desiccation on the mating latency and copulations duration in tropical Drosophila melanogaster. We tested flies for these reproductive behavioral parameters at varying body water levels and with whole metabolome analysis in order to gain a further understanding of the physiological response to desiccation. Our results showed that the duration of desiccation is positively correlated with mating latency and mating failure, while having no influence on the copulation duration. The metabolomic analysis revealed three biological pathways highly affected by desiccation: starch and sucrose metabolism, galactose metabolism, and phenylalanine, tyrosine and tryptophan biosynthesis. These results are consistent with carbohydrate metabolism providing an energy source in desiccated flies and also suggests that the phenylalanine biosynthesis pathway plays a role in the reproductive fitness of the flies. Desiccation is a common issue with smaller insects, like Drosophila and other tropical insects, and our findings indicate that this lack of ambient water can immediately and drastically affect the insect reproductive behaviour, which becomes more crucial because of unpredictable and dynamic weather conditions.

The influence of increased water temperature on the duration of spermatogenesis in a neotropical fish, Astyanax altiparanae (Characiformes, Characidae)

In view of the established climate change scenario and the consequent changes in global temperature, it is essential to study its effects on animal spermatogenesis. Therefore, the aim of this study was to verify the duration of spermatogenesis at different temperatures. For this purpose, 96 male and adult specimens of Astyanax altiparanae were kept in a closed circulation system with water temperature stabilized at 27 °C and 32 °C. Subsequently, the specimens received pulses of BrdU (bromodeoxyuridine) at a concentration of 100 mg/kg/day for 2 consecutive days, and the samples were collected daily for a period of 15 days. Their testes were removed, fixed, processed in historesin, and sectioned in 3 μm, submitted to hematoxylin/eosin staining and to bromodeoxyuridine immunodetection. Partial results of the optimum temperature experiments allowed the classification of A. altiparanae spermatogenic cells in A_und, A_diff, and type B spermatogonia, spermatocytes, spermatids, and spermatozoa. The duration of spermatogenesis was determined as approximately 6 days for animals at a temperature of 27 °C and 1 day for animals at 32 °C. The elevated temperature was also responsible for increasing cell proliferation, resulting in an increase in the number of spermatocytes, spermatids, spermatozoa, and cell death (cell pyknotic). The duration of spermatogenesis in A. altiparanae was directly affected by the elevated water temperature, causing a reduction in the estimated time of spermatogenesis.

Scirpus radicans (Cyperaceae), a newly-discovered native species in Lithuania: population, habitats and threats

A previously unrecorded native species, Scirpus radicans (Cyperaceae), was discovered in the southern part of Lithuania in 2020. Although this species has a large distribution area in other parts of Eurasia, it is currently recognised as threatened in many European countries. Recordings of S. radicans in Lithuania had been expected, as these plants do occur or have been reported to occur in neighbouring regions. The aim of this study was to analyse the distribution of S. radicans in southern Lithuania, to determine the occupied areas and the size of populations, to study their capacity of vegetative reproduction, their habitats and associated plant communities, as well as to perform an assessment of the species' conservation status within the country. We studied S. radicans populations at two sites on the shores of Lake Pabezninkai and of Lake Netečius in the Varėna District (southern Lithuania), from August to October 2020. A total of 993 individuals of S. radicans were counted and their stands comprised 0.73 ha. The density of individuals in the studied plots ranged from 0.02 to 0.78 plants/m². Only 0.5% of individuals at Lake Pabezninkai and 20.7% of individuals at Lake Netečius were at the stage of generative reproduction. Individuals at the stage of vegetative reproduction comprised 56.4%, whereas generative individuals amounted to 1.7% of all studied plants. One to seven stolons developed per plant and the mean number of rosettes per stolon was 2.8 ± 1.2. Potentially, a total of ca. 2860 rosettes could be expected from all individuals of the studied plots, but the actual realised rate of vegetative reproduction is unknown. A more detailed study of the reproductive capacities of S. radicans would be required for better understanding the causes of the lately observed decrease of this species in most of the countries of Central Europe. Our analysis of the associated plant communities has enabled us to confirm the presence of a Scirpetus radicantis Nowiński 1930 association previously not recorded in Lithuania. By assessing S. radicans in accordance with the IUCN Criteria, we conclude that this species should be classified as endangered (EN) in Lithuania. Based on this assessment, we propose to include this species on the list of legally protected species of Lithuania. Conservation of shallow lakes with sandy or muddy shores and with significant natural fluctuations of the water level is the main measure for ensuring the survival of S. radicans, as well as other rare and endangered species adapted to such a type of habitat.

Too hot to handle? Behavioural plasticity during incubation in a small, Australian passerine

Global warming and intensifying extreme heat events may affect avian reproductive success and costs, particularly in hot, arid environments. It is unclear how breeding birds alter their behaviour in response to rapid climate change, and whether such plasticity will be sufficient to offset rising temperatures. We examine whether a small, open-cup nesting, passerine - the Jacky Winter Microeca fascinans - in semi-arid Australia, exhibits similar levels of behavioural plasticity when incubating under high temperatures as low, and how heat impacts upon parental effort, body mass change and reproductive success. At high temperatures, female effort increased. Females doubled nest attendance between 28 °C and 40 °C, switching from incubating to shading eggs at approx. 30 °C. Egg-shading females panted to avoid hyperthermia. Panting increased with temperature and sun exposure. Male breeding effort was linked to temperature extremes. In cold conditions, males provisioned their mates heavily, buffering females from additional energetic costs, and males suffered a loss of body mass. In extreme heat, males helped shade eggs (although they never incubated). The likelihood of male egg-shading increased with temperature, but level of contribution was positively related to sun exposure. Hatching success declined with air temperatures >35 °C. Egg mortality reached 100 at air temperatures >42.5 °C. Parents continued to attend unviable eggs (for up to two weeks), suggesting egg-loss from heat exposure is a recent phenomenon. Although pairs exhibited considerable behavioural plasticity - including positioning nests to maximize afternoon shade - this was insufficient to counter extreme temperatures. In 2019, one hot day (45 °C) effectively terminated reproduction two months early, and was associated with a 50% decrease in reproductive success. The increasing frequency, intensity and earlier arrival of extreme heat events is likely to pose a major threat to avifauna populations in hot, arid environments, due to increased parental costs, reduced reproductive success and direct mortality.

Understanding and managing the interactions of impacts from nature-based recreation and climate change

Disturbance to ecosystems in parks and protected areas from nature-based tourism and recreation is increasing in scale and severity, as are the impacts of climate change-but there is limited research examining the degree to which these anthropogenic disturbances interact. In this perspective paper, we draw on the available literature to expose complex recreation and climate interactions that may alter ecosystems of high conservation value such that important species and processes no longer persist. Our emphasis is on ecosystems in high demand for tourism and recreation that also are increasingly experiencing stress from climate change. We discuss the importance of developing predictive models of direct and indirect effects, including threshold and legacy effects at different levels of biological organization. We present a conceptual model of these interactions to initiate a dialog among researchers and managers so that new research approaches and managerial frameworks are advanced to address this emerging issue.

Global emissions of NH3, NOx, and N2O from biomass burning and the impact of climate change

Emissions of ammonia (NH₃), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x; NO +NO₂), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) from biomass burning were quantified on a global scale for 2001 to 2015. On average biomass burning emissions at a global scale over the period were as follows: 4.53 ± 0.51 Tg NH₃ year^-1, 14.65 ± 1.60 Tg NO_x year^-1, and 0.97 ± 0.11 Tg N₂O year^-1. Emissions were comparable to other emissions databases. Statistical regression models were developed to project NH₃, NO_x, and N₂O emissions from biomass burning as a function of burn area. Two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were analyzed for 2050-2055 ("mid-century") and 2090-2095 ("end of century"). Under the assumptions made in this study, the results indicate emissions of all species are projected to increase under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. Implications: This manuscript quantifies emissions of NH₃, NO_x, and N₂O on a global scale from biomass burning from 2001-2015 then creates regression models to predict emissions based on climate change. Because reactive nitrogen emissions have such an important role in the global nitrogen cycle, changes in these emissions could lead to a number of health and environmental impacts.

Microgeographical adaptation corresponds to elevational distributions of congeneric montane grasshoppers

Local adaptation can occur at small spatial scales relative to the dispersal capacity of species. Alpine ecosystems have sharp environmental clines that offer an opportunity to investigate the effects of fine-scale shifts in species' niche breadth on adaptive genetic processes. Here we examine two grasshopper species endemic to the Australian Alps (Kosciuscola spp.) that differ in elevational niche breadth: one broader, K. usitatus (1400-2200 m), and one narrower, K. tristis (1600-2000 m). We examine signatures of selection with respect to environmental and morphological variables in two mountain regions using F_ST outlier tests and environmental association analyses (EAAs) applied to single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data (K. usitatus: 9017 SNPs, n = 130; K. tristis: 7363 SNPs, n = 135). Stronger genetic structure was found in the more narrowly distributed K. tristis, which showed almost twice the number of SNPs under putative selection (10.8%) compared with K. usitatus (5.3%). When examining SNPs in common across species (n = 3058), 260 SNPs (8.5%) were outliers shared across species, and these were mostly associated with elevation, a proxy for temperature, suggesting parallel adaptive processes in response to climatic drivers. Additive polygenic scores (an estimate of the cumulative signal of selection across all candidate loci) were nonlinearly and positively correlated with elevation in both species. However, a steeper correlation in K. tristis indicated a stronger signal of spatially varying selection towards higher elevations. Our study illustrates that the niche breadth of co-occurring and related species distributed along the same environmental cline is associated with differences in patterns of microgeographical adaptation.

Spatial, climate and ploidy factors drive genomic diversity and resilience in the widespread grass Themeda triandra

Global climate change poses a significant threat to natural communities around the world, with many plant species showing signs of climate stress. Grassland ecosystems are not an exception, with climate change compounding contemporary pressures such as habitat loss and fragmentation. In this study, we assess the climate resilience of Themeda triandra, a foundational species and the most widespread plant in Australia, by assessing the relative contributions of spatial, environmental and ploidy factors to contemporary genomic variation. Reduced-representation genome sequencing on 472 samples from 52 locations was used to test how the distribution of genomic variation, including ploidy polymorphism, supports adaptation to hotter and drier climates. We explicitly quantified isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by environment (IBE) and predicted genomic vulnerability of populations to future climates based on expected deviation from current genomic composition. We found that a majority (54%) of genomic variation could be attributed to IBD, while an additional 22% (27% when including ploidy information) could be explained by two temperature and two precipitation climate variables demonstrating IBE. Ploidy polymorphisms were common within populations (31/52 populations), indicating that ploidy mixing is characteristic of T. triandra populations. Genomic vulnerabilities were found to be heterogeneously distributed throughout the landscape, and our analysis suggested that ploidy polymorphism, along with other factors linked to polyploidy, reduced vulnerability to future climates by 60% (0.25-0.10). Our data suggests that polyploidy may facilitate adaptation to hotter climates and highlight the importance of incorporating ploidy in adaptive management strategies to promote the resilience of this and other foundation species.

Dry and wet miombo woodlands of south-central Africa respond differently to climate change

It is important to understand how species distributions will shift under climate change. While much focus has been on species tracking temperature changes in the northern hemisphere, changing precipitation patterns in tropical regions have received less attention. The aim of the study was to estimate the current distribution of wet and dry miombo woodlands of sub-Saharan Africa and to predict their distributions under different climate change scenarios. A maximum entropy method (Maxent) was used to estimate the distributions and for projections. Occurrence records of dominant tree species in each woodland were used for modeling, together with altitude, soil characteristics, and climate variables as the environmental variables. Modeling was done under all four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and three general circulation models. Three dominant tree species were used in models of dry miombo while seven were used for wet miombo. Models estimated dry miombo to cover almost the entire known distribution of miombo woodlands while wet miombo were estimated to predominate in parts of Angola, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Future climate scenarios predict a drier climate in sub-Saharan Africa, and as a result, the range of dry miombo will expand. Dry miombo were predicted to expand by up to 17.3% in 2050 and 22.7% in 2070. In contrast, wet miombo were predicted to contract by up to - 28.6% in 2050 and - 41.6% in 2070. A warming climate is conducive for the proliferation of dry miombo tree species but unfavorable for wet miombo tree species.

Research priorities for natural ecosystems in a changing global climate

Climate change poses significant emerging risks to biodiversity, ecosystem function and associated socioecological systems. Adaptation responses must be initiated in parallel with mitigation efforts, but resources are limited. As climate risks are not distributed equally across taxa, ecosystems and processes, strategic prioritization of research that addresses stakeholder-relevant knowledge gaps will accelerate effective uptake into adaptation policy and management action. After a decade of climate change adaptation research within the Australian National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, we synthesize the National Adaptation Research Plans for marine, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. We identify the key, globally relevant priorities for ongoing research relevant to informing adaptation policy and environmental management aimed at maximizing the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change. Informed by both global literature and an extensive stakeholder consultation across all ecosystems, sectors and regions in Australia, involving thousands of participants, we suggest 18 priority research topics based on their significance, urgency, technical and economic feasibility, existing knowledge gaps and potential for cobenefits across multiple sectors. These research priorities provide a unified guide for policymakers, funding organizations and researchers to strategically direct resources, maximize stakeholder uptake of resulting knowledge and minimize the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems. Given the pace of climate change, it is imperative that we inform and accelerate adaptation progress in all regions around the world.

Plant functional traits differ in adaptability and are predicted to be differentially affected by climate change

Climate change is testing the resilience of forests worldwide pushing physiological tolerance to climatic extremes. Plant functional traits have been shown to be adapted to climate and have evolved patterns of trait correlations (similar patterns of distribution) and coordinations (mechanistic trade-off). We predicted that traits would differentiate between populations associated with climatic gradients, suggestive of adaptive variation, and correlated traits would adapt to future climate scenarios in similar ways.We measured genetically determined trait variation and described patterns of correlation for seven traits: photochemical reflectance index (PRI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf size (LS), specific leaf area (SLA), δ13C (integrated water-use efficiency, WUE), nitrogen concentration (NCONC), and wood density (WD). All measures were conducted in an experimental plantation on 960 trees sourced from 12 populations of a key forest canopy species in southwestern Australia.Significant differences were found between populations for all traits. Narrow-sense heritability was significant for five traits (0.15-0.21), indicating that natural selection can drive differentiation; however, SLA (0.08) and PRI (0.11) were not significantly heritable. Generalized additive models predicted trait values across the landscape for current and future climatic conditions (>90% variance). The percent change differed markedly among traits between current and future predictions (differing as little as 1.5% (δ13C) or as much as 30% (PRI)). Some trait correlations were predicted to break down in the future (SLA:NCONC, δ13C:PRI, and NCONC:WD).Synthesis: Our results suggest that traits have contrasting genotypic patterns and will be subjected to different climate selection pressures, which may lower the working optimum for functional traits. Further, traits are independently associated with different climate factors, indicating that some trait correlations may be disrupted in the future. Genetic constraints and trait correlations may limit the ability for functional traits to adapt to climate change.