Solar radiation and ENSO predict fruiting phenology patterns in a 15‐year record from Kibale National Park, Uganda

Direct links between resource availability and activity budget better reveal ecological patterns of endangered Coimbra-Filho's titi monkey

Many primatological studies do not assess direct indexes of food availability to make inferences about behavioral strategies. We related the diet and behavior of a group of Callicebus coimbrai in northeastern Brazil to fruit availability indexes and compared this pattern between seasons (direct and indirect assessment of food availability) to assess whether direct and indirect approaches detect similar ecological patterns. We monitored the study group for 33 months (5 days/month) via scan sampling. The monthly availability of fruits and new leaves was recorded in phenological transects. Fruit availability varied across years based on fruit prevalence, and timing and duration of the abundant seasons. We did not find evidence of a time-minimizing strategy, since C. coimbrai did not change its activity levels according to food availability. However, the negative relationship between foraging and fruit availability indicates that C. coimbrai can compensate for the lower fruit availability by increasing the search for alternative food sources. Monthly fruit consumption was positively correlated to fruit availability and negatively related to the consumption of other food items. However, the behavioral and feeding profiles did not vary between seasons and were not related to rainfall levels. Primate studies should directly relate behavioral and feeding profiles to fruit availability indices, thus avoiding using seasons as proxies of food availability.

Effects of ENSO events on the intensity, seasonality, and diversity of reproductive phenology of Miconia (Melastomataceae) species in tropical rainforest

We evaluated the phenology and reproductive phenological diversity of three sympatric species of Miconia in a gallery forest in the Chapada Diamantina mountains, Bahia, Brazil. The reproductive phenophases (bud, flower, immature fruit, and mature fruit) of M. alborufescens (N=38), M. holosericea (N=46), and M. prasina (N=44) were evaluated monthly, between June/2008 and June/2015. The Fournier index was used to assess the intensities of the reproductive phenophases; synchrony and seasonality were analyzed using circular statistics and the Rayleigh (Z) test. The Frideman and Wilcoxon tests were used to verify interannual variations in phenological patterns. Reproductive phenological diversity was measured by calculating the Shannon-Wiener index; ANOVA tested possible differences in the means of diversity among the different years. The reproductive phenophases of the studied Miconia species occurred sequentially (M. alborufescens, then M. holoserica, followed by M. prasina), in the transition between the dry and rainy seasons, with little overlap between them. In general, the species showed seasonal and synchronic phenological patterns, with some variations that coincided with El Niño and/or La Niña events, e.g., demonstrating changes in the periodicity, synchrony, and intensity of their phenophases. The intensity of fruiting, for example, showed increases during La Niña years. Reproductive phenological diversity appears to respond to climate changes resulting from El Niño events and periods of prolonged drought, with high Shannon-Wiener index values. The results also suggest that the effects of global climatic phenomena (El Niño and La Niña) that alter regional climatic seasonality can also cause variations in the reproductive phenological rhythms of the Miconia species studied.

Fifty+ years of primate research illustrates complex drivers of abundance and increasing primate numbers

Many primate populations are threatened by human actions and a central tool used for their protection is establishing protected areas. However, even if populations in such areas are protected from hunting and deforestation, they still may be threatened by factors such as climate change and its cascading impacts on habitat quality and disease dynamics. Here we provide a long-term and geographically wide-spread population assessment of the five common diurnal primates of Kibale National Park, Uganda. Over 7 year-long or longer census efforts that spanned 52 years, our team walked 1466 km, and recorded 480 monkey groups. Populations were generally relatively stable with a few exceptions, for which no apparent causative factors could be identified. This stability is unexpected as many ecological changes documented over the last 34+ years (e.g., decreasing food abundance and quality) were predicted to have negative impacts. Populations of some species declined at some sites but increased at others. This highlights the need for large, protected areas so that declines in particular areas are countered by gains in others. Kibale has large areas of regenerating forest and this most recent survey revealed that after 20+ years, forest regeneration in many of these areas appears sufficient to sustain sizeable primate populations, except for blue monkeys that have not colonized these areas. Indeed, the average primate abundance in the regenerating forest was only 8.1% lower than in neighboring old-growth forest. Thus, park-wide primate abundance has likely increased, despite many pressures on the park having risen; however, some areas in the park remain to be assessed. Our study suggests that the restoration, patrolling, and community outreach efforts of the Uganda Wildlife Authority and their partners have contributed significantly to protecting the park and its animals.

Assessing the effects of a drought experiment on the reproductive phenology and ecophysiology of a wet tropical rainforest community

Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and occurrence of drought in tropical regions, potentially affecting the phenology and physiology of tree species. Phenological activity may respond to a drying and warming environment by advancing reproductive timing and/or diminishing the production of flowers and fruits. These changes have the potential to disrupt important ecological processes, with potentially wide-ranging effects on tropical forest function. Here, we analysed the monthly flowering and fruiting phenology of a tree community (337 individuals from 30 species) over 7 years in a lowland tropical rainforest in northeastern Australia and its response to a throughfall exclusion drought experiment (TFE) that was carried out from 2016 to 2018 (3 years), excluding approximately 30% of rainfall. We further examined the ecophysiological effects of the TFE on the elemental (C:N) and stable isotope (δ13C and δ15N) composition of leaves, and on the stable isotope composition (δ13C and δ18O) of stem wood of four tree species. At the community level, there was no detectable effect of the TFE on flowering activity overall, but there was a significant effect recorded on fruiting and varying responses from the selected species. The reproductive phenology and physiology of the four species examined in detail were largely resistant to impacts of the TFE treatment. One canopy species in the TFE significantly increased in fruiting and flowering activity, whereas one understory species decreased significantly in both. There was a significant interaction between the TFE treatment and season on leaf C:N for two species. Stable isotope responses were also variable among species, indicating species-specific responses to the TFE. Thus, we did not observe consistent patterns in physiological and phenological changes in the tree community within the 3 years of TFE treatment examined in this study.

Seasonality of reproduction in an ever-wet lowland tropical forest in Amazonian Ecuador

Flowering and fruiting phenology have been infrequently studied in the ever-wet hyperdiverse lowland forests of northwestern equatorial Amazonía. These Neotropical forests are typically called aseasonal with reference to climate because they are ever-wet, and it is often assumed they are also aseasonal with respect to phenology. The physiological limits to plant reproduction imposed by water and light availability are difficult to disentangle in seasonal forests because these variables are often temporally correlated, and both are rarely studied together, challenging our understanding of their relative importance as drivers of reproduction. Here we report on the first long-term study (18 years) of flowering and fruiting phenology in a diverse equatorial forest, Yasuní in eastern Ecuador, and the first to include a full suite of on-site monthly climate data. Using twice monthly censuses of 200 traps and >1000 species, we determined whether reproduction at Yasuní is seasonal at the community and species levels and analyzed the relationships between environmental variables and phenology. We also tested the hypothesis that seasonality in phenology, if present, is driven primarily by irradiance. Both the community- and species-level measures demonstrated strong reproductive seasonality at Yasuní. Flowering peaked in September-November and fruiting peaked in March-April, with a strong annual signal for both phenophases. Irradiance and rainfall were also highly seasonal, even though no month on average experienced drought (a month with <100 mm rainfall). Flowering was positively correlated with current or near-current irradiance, supporting our hypothesis that the extra energy available during the period of peak irradiance drives the seasonality of flowering at Yasuní. As Yasuní is representative of lowland ever-wet equatorial forests of northwestern Amazonía, we expect that reproductive phenology will be strongly seasonal throughout this region.

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

In spite of their small global area and restricted distributions, tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and important ecosystem services providers, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. To protect and preserve these ecosystems better, it is crucial to inform the design and implementation of conservation policies with the best available scientific evidence, and to identify knowledge gaps and future research needs. We conducted a systematic review and an appraisal of evidence quality to assess the impacts of climate change on TMFs. We identified several skews and shortcomings. Experimental study designs with controls and long-term (≥10 years) data sets provide the most reliable evidence, but were rare and gave an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts on TMFs. Most studies were based on predictive modelling approaches, short-term (<10 years) and cross-sectional study designs. Although these methods provide moderate to circumstantial evidence, they can advance our understanding on climate change effects. Current evidence suggests that increasing temperatures and rising cloud levels have caused distributional shifts (mainly upslope) of montane biota, leading to alterations in biodiversity and ecological functions. Neotropical TMFs were the best studied, thus the knowledge derived there can serve as a proxy for climate change responses in under-studied regions elsewhere. Most studies focused on vascular plants, birds, amphibians and insects, with other taxonomic groups poorly represented. Most ecological studies were conducted at species or community levels, with a marked paucity of genetic studies, limiting understanding of the adaptive capacity of TMF biota. We thus highlight the long-term need to widen the methodological, thematic and geographical scope of studies on TMFs under climate change to address these uncertainties. In the short term, however, in-depth research in well-studied regions and advances in computer modelling approaches offer the most reliable sources of information for expeditious conservation action for these threatened forests.

Trenches reduce crop foraging by elephants: Lessons from Kibale National Park, Uganda for elephant conservation in densely settled rural landscapes

Crop loss to wildlife, particularly elephants, threatens livelihoods and support for conservation around many protected areas in Africa and Asia. Low-cost elephant barriers have been successfully deployed in savannas but seldom tested around isolated forest parks where the stakes are high for local farmers and isolated elephant populations. We measured the effectiveness of a series of ≥3 m deep trenches dug by farmers neighboring Kibale National Park, Uganda. We monitored trench quality and crop loss to elephants weekly for a year across 47 transects in four park-adjacent communities, and conducted controlled, before-and-after comparisons of verified damage. Elephants damaged or destroyed >4 ha of crops during 48 independent foraging events, the majority <220m from the forest boundary. The frequency of damage varied significantly between and within communities. The majority of trenches were not breached by elephants but five suffered ≥4 breaches. Elephant-breached trenches and their neighboring trenches were lower quality than those not breached in the same week (Wilcoxon test: p<0.001). Trenches were also more likely to be breached where people had planted more crops favored by elephants (Wilcoxon test: p = 0.014). Thus, trench quality and the draw of palatable crops both appeared to influence elephant damage. Although trenches may deter elephants, challenges include heavy labor and difficulties of digging in rocky and swampy areas. Trenches alone will not prevent conflict but this strategy holds promise for hot-spots of conflict at forest edges. Given the stakes for farmers and biodiversity, we call for systematic assessment of crop losses and offer recommendations on monitoring and analysis. Such data will allow for stronger inference about effectiveness before investment of effort and resources in interventions.

Development of solar isodose lines: Mercatorian and spatial guides for mapping solar installation areas

Mercatorian and spatial studies of solar power potential (SPP) provide technical guides for mapping actual solar installation areas for the efficient performance of photovoltaic plants. Acquisition and processing of satellite and on-station data on clearness index, relative sunshine hours, latitude, longitude and SPP preceded their modeling and simulations. The mercatorian SPP model is a geometric function of latitude and longitude, whereas the spatial SPP model is a function of x and y coordinates developed from the Haversine formula. Multiple isodose lines and a single maximum isodose line characterized the distributed and concentrated SPP contours, respectively. The present geometric SPP model validated well with the measured SPP with insignificant error results for the study areas. The Concentrated SPPs: 757.5, 635.2, 557.5 and 405.9 W/m² with their corresponding percentage concentrated areas (actual): 28.85(29084.6), 41.48(15368.6), 4.37(1179.6) and 0.75(635.7)%(m²) for Northern Region (NR), Eastern Region (ER), Central Region (CR) and Western Region (WR), respectively. These results support the efficient performance of solar facilities within the confine of the SPP concentrated areas. The effective mercatorian coordinates were useful in identifying districts within the SPP concentrated areas. Furthermore, the high magnitude of the SPP in ER and NR supports that they are favored for the installation of solar facilities.

Why eat flowers? Symphonia globulifera flowers provide a fatty resource for red-tailed monkeys

Flowers are ubiquitous in primate environments, yet their nutritional advantages are underexamined. Symphonia globulifera is a widely distributed tree exploited by a variety of animals in Africa and the Americas. We collected S. globulifera flower samples consumed by red-tailed monkeys (Cercopithecus ascanius) and compared them nutritionally to flower samples from other plant species in Kibale National Park, Uganda. Flowers were assayed for three fiber fractions (NDF, ADF, lignin), fat, crude protein, acid detergent insoluble nitrogen (ADIN), ash, and soluble sugars. We estimated available protein, total nonstructural carbohydrates (TNC), and metabolizable energy (ME). We calculated the mean and standard deviation for all nutrient categories and applied nutritional geometry to illustrate the balance among the energetic gains from available protein, fat, fiber, and TNC across flower species. Our results suggest that S. globulifera flowers provide an unusually high fat resource (14.82% ± 1.41%) relative to other flowers (1.38% ± 5.79%) and other foods exploited in the same habitat.

Modes of climate variability bridge proximate and evolutionary mechanisms of masting

There is evidence that variable and synchronous reproduction in seed plants (masting) correlates to modes of climate variability, e.g. El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. In this perspective, we explore the breadth of knowledge on how climate modes control reproduction in major masting species throughout Earth's biomes. We posit that intrinsic properties of climate modes (periodicity, persistence and trends) drive interannual and decadal variability of plant reproduction, as well as the spatial extent of its synchrony, aligning multiple proximate causes of masting through space and time. Moreover, climate modes force lagged but in-phase ecological processes that interact synergistically with multiple stages of plant reproductive cycles. This sets up adaptive benefits by increasing offspring fitness through either economies of scale or environmental prediction. Community-wide links between climate modes and masting across plant taxa suggest an evolutionary role of climate variability. We argue that climate modes may 'bridge' proximate and ultimate causes of masting selecting for variable and synchronous reproduction. The future of such interaction is uncertain: processes that improve reproductive fitness may remain coupled with climate modes even under changing climates, but chances are that abrupt global warming will affect Earth's climate modes so rapidly as to alter ecological and evolutionary links. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

A Mechanistic Framework for Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on the Link Between Flowering and Fruiting Phenology

Phenological shifts are a widely studied consequence of climate change. Little is known, however, about certain critical phenological events, nor about mechanistic links between shifts in different life-history stages of the same organism. Among angiosperms, flowering times have been observed to advance with climate change, but, whether fruiting times shift as a direct consequence of shifting flowering times, or respond differently or not at all to climate change, is poorly understood. Yet, shifts in fruiting could alter species interactions, including by disrupting seed dispersal mutualisms. In the absence of long-term data on fruiting phenology, but given extensive data on flowering, we argue that an understanding of whether flowering and fruiting are tightly linked or respond independently to environmental change can significantly advance our understanding of how fruiting phenologies will respond to warming climates. Through a case study of biotically and abiotically dispersed plants, we present evidence for a potential functional link between the timing of flowering and fruiting. We then propose general mechanisms for how flowering and fruiting life history stages could be functionally linked or independently driven by external factors, and we use our case study species and phenological responses to distinguish among proposed mechanisms in a real-world framework. Finally, we identify research directions that could elucidate which of these mechanisms drive the timing between subsequent life stages. Understanding how fruiting phenology is altered by climate change is essential for all plant species but is particularly critical to sustaining the large numbers of plant species that rely on animal-mediated dispersal, as well as the animals that rely on fruit for sustenance.

Foraging efficiency in temporally predictable environments: is a long-term temporal memory really advantageous?

Cognitive abilities enabling animals that feed on ephemeral but yearly renewable resources to infer when resources are available may have been favoured by natural selection, but the magnitude of the benefits brought by these abilities remains poorly known. Using computer simulations, we compared the efficiencies of three main types of foragers with different abilities to process temporal information, in spatially and/or temporally homogeneous or heterogeneous environments. One was endowed with a sampling memory, which stores recent experience about the availability of the different food types. The other two were endowed with a chronological or associative memory, which stores long-term temporal information about absolute times of these availabilities or delays between them, respectively. To determine the range of possible efficiencies, we also simulated a forager without temporal cognition but which simply targeted the closest and possibly empty food sources, and a perfectly prescient forager, able to know at any time which food source was effectively providing food. The sampling, associative and chronological foragers were far more efficient than the forager without temporal cognition in temporally predictable environments, and interestingly, their efficiencies increased with the level of temporal heterogeneity. The use of a long-term temporal memory results in a foraging efficiency up to 1.16 times better (chronological memory) or 1.14 times worse (associative memory) than the use of a simple sampling memory. Our results thus show that, for everyday foraging, a long-term temporal memory did not provide a clear benefit over a simple short-term memory that keeps track of the current resource availability. Long-term temporal memories may therefore have emerged in contexts where short-term temporal cognition is useless, i.e. when the anticipation of future environmental changes is strongly needed.

Biotic and abiotic drivers of dispersion dynamics in a large-bodied tropical vertebrate, the Western Bornean orangutan

Understanding of animal responses to dynamic resource landscapes is based largely on research on temperate species with small body sizes and fast life histories. We studied a large, tropical mammal with an extremely slow life history, the Western Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii), across a heterogeneous natural landscape encompassing seven distinct forest types. Our goals were to characterize fluctuations in abundance, test hypotheses regarding the relationship between dispersion dynamics and resource availability, and evaluate how movement patterns are influenced by abiotic conditions. We surveyed abundance in Gunung Palung National Park, West Kalimantan, Indonesia, for 99 consecutive months and simultaneously recorded weather data and assessed fruit availability. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical distance sampling model to estimate population dispersion and assess the roles of fruit availability, rainfall, and temperature in driving movement patterns across this heterogeneous landscape. Orangutan abundance varied dramatically over space and time. Each forest type was important in sustaining more than 40% of the total orangutans on site during at least one month, as animals moved to track asynchronies in fruiting phenology. We conclude that landscape-level movements buffer orangutans against fruit scarcity, peat swamps are crucial fallback habitats, and orangutans' use of high elevation forests is strongly dependent on abiotic conditions. Our results show that orangutans can periodically occupy putative-sink habitats and be virtually absent for extended periods from habitats that are vitally important in sustaining their population, highlighting the need for long-term studies and potential risks in interpreting occurrence or abundance measures as indicators of habitat importance.

Effects of rainfall, temperature and photoperiod on the phenology of ephemeral resources for selected bushveld woody plant species in southern Africa

Variability of ephemeral resources provided by woody plants is related to fluctuating environmental conditions, specifically the predominant climate variables temperature and rainfall. Photoperiod has less impact but also plays a role in the onset of resource pulses. In the seasonally affected bushveld of southern Africa, declining resources could have dire consequences to various animals that depend on these resources. Understanding the impact that rainfall, temperature and photoperiod has on woody plant resources allows managers of natural areas to plan for times when resources are scarce. Using a series of General Linear Models, this baseline study investigates the effects that these variables have on flower production, numbers of new fruit/pods and numbers of new leaves for 113 tagged trees from 26 woody plant species. Leads, lags and coincidental relationships observed between environmental predictor and phenological response variables were explored using time-series cross-correlations and concomitant correlograms. Model results indicated that temperature was the predominant indicator for flowering, with initial flowering starting when temperatures increase in September. A significant lead was observed between flowering and rainfall, suggesting that flower numbers increase approximately one month before rainfall increases. Temperature had the biggest effect on the number of species with new fruits and pods. Significant lags were observed between new fruits and pods and all environmental variables investigated, indicating that these resources depend on rainfall, temperature and photoperiod to reach their full potential. Photoperiod, temperature and the interaction between these variables had a noticeable effect on the number of species with new leaves. Peaks in species with new leaves coincide with peaks in rainfall, temperature and photoperiod. No leading or lagging indicators were observed between new leaves and the environmental variables investigated. In areas containing wildlife populations, recommendations are to undertake regular monitoring of climatic variables investigated, and the ephemeral resources on woody plant species.

Monitoring Forest Phenology in a Changing World

Plant phenology is strongly interlinked with ecosystem processes and biodiversity. Like many other aspects of ecosystem functioning, it is affected by habitat and climate change, with both global change drivers altering the timings and frequency of phenological events. As such, there has been an increased focus in recent years to monitor phenology in different biomes. A range of approaches for monitoring phenology have been developed to increase our understanding on its role in ecosystems, ranging from the use of satellites and drones to collection traps, each with their own merits and limitations. Here, we outline the trade-offs between methods (spatial resolution, temporal resolution, cost, data processing), and discuss how their use can be optimised in different environments and for different goals. We also emphasise emerging technologies that will be the focus of monitoring in the years to follow and the challenges of monitoring phenology that still need to be addressed. We conclude that there is a need to integrate studies that incorporate multiple monitoring methods, allowing the strengths of one to compensate for the weaknesses of another, with a view to developing robust methods for upscaling phenological observations from point locations to biome and global scales and reconciling data from varied sources and environments. Such developments are needed if we are to accurately quantify the impacts of a changing world on plant phenology.

The Kibale Chimpanzee Project: Over thirty years of research, conservation, and change

Long-term primate field research programs contribute to the protection of endangered primate species and their vanishing habitats by informing and fostering local and international conservation programs. The Kibale Chimpanzee Project (KCP) has studied the Kanyawara community of wild chimpanzees continuously since 1987, investigating a wide range of behavioral, ecological, and physiological questions. The study area includes the northwest boundary of Kibale National Park, Uganda, and has experienced habitat change driven by multiple causes, including forest regeneration, an increasingly warmer and wetter climate, and impacts from the neighboring human population. Here, we review the history of research on Kanyawara chimpanzees and examine how their demography, diet, and social behavior have changed over the last 30+ years. While Kanyawara chimpanzees were protected from the major threats of poaching and habitat loss, respiratory diseases of human origin were a major source of mortality. Many individuals were also injured by wire hunting snares. Nevertheless, the study community has grown modestly in size, individuals have become increasingly gregarious, and birth rates have increased. These results are likely attributable to improved habitat productivity that can be traced to decades-long efforts by wildlife authorities and the associated research and conservation programs in Kibale. Overall, research has contributed both to understanding interactions among nutritional ecology, social behavior, physiology, and health of an endangered species, and also to conservation activities in the Kibale community through direct interventions, positive economic impacts, and conservation education programs.

Long-term collapse in fruit availability threatens Central African forest megafauna

Afrotropical forests host much of the world's remaining megafauna, although these animals are confined to areas where direct human influences are low. We used a rare long-term dataset of tree reproduction and a photographic database of forest elephants to assess food availability and body condition of an emblematic megafauna species at Lopé National Park, Gabon. Our analysis reveals an 81% decline in fruiting over a 32-year period (1986-2018) and an 11% decline in body condition of fruit-dependent forest elephants from 2008 to 2018. Fruit famine in one of the last strongholds for African forest elephants should raise concern about the ability of this species and other fruit-dependent megafauna to persist in the long term, with potential consequences for broader ecosystem and biosphere functioning.

Effects of Climate Variability on Queen Production and Pollen Preferences of Neotropical Bumblebee Bombus atratus in a High Andean Suburban Condition

Bombus atratus Franklin is a widely distributed bumblebee of South America. In Colombia, this species is recognized for its ability to adapt to highly disturbed habitats. However, knowledge of its ecology is poorly known, in particular conditions to ensure the long-term conservation of its populations. Identification of pollen resources is an important issue that could be used as a tool to manage and conserve bumblebees. In tropical areas, rainfall patterns could affect floral phenology and therefore the availability of pollen resources. Considering this, the present work aimed to establish the effect of extreme weather conditions (El Niño) in pollen availability, use of pollinic sources, and gyne production in B. atratus colonies. We reared and located 14 B. atratus colonies in a suburban area during a dry season (ENSO "El Niño") and a rainy season (ENSO "La Niña"). We registered time to gyne production and numbers of gynes produced per colony. We extracted pollen samples to establish both its floral origin and its relative abundance. We measured floral offer for each season. The data of pollen use per colony were utilized to perform Bipartite networks. We analyzed the production of gynes and pollen use per season with correlation models and generalized linear models. Colonies of the rainy season produced more gynes and faster. The floral diversity and offer were higher during the rainy season. Successful colonies used specific pollen sources in two seasons, independently of the floral offer. Extreme dry season affected development of B. atratus colonies.

Hygric Niches for Tropical Endotherms

Biotic selective pressures dominate explanations for the evolutionary ecology of tropical endotherms. Yet, abiotic factors, principally precipitation regimes, shape biogeographical and phenological patterns in tropical regions. Despite its importance, we lack a framework for understanding when, why, and how rain affects endotherms. Here, we review how tropical birds and mammals respond to rain at individual, population, and community levels, and propose a conceptual framework to interpret divergent responses. Diverse direct and indirect mechanisms underlie responses to rainfall, including physiological, top-down, and food-related drivers. Our framework constitutes a roadmap for the empirical studies required to understand the consequences of rainfall variability. Identifying the patterns and mechanisms underpinning responses to temporal variation in precipitation is crucial to anticipate consequences of anthropogenic climate change.

Long-term trends in fruit production in a tropical forest at Ngogo, Kibale National Park, Uganda

Fruit production in tropical forests varies considerably in space and time, with important implications for frugivorous consumers. Characterizing temporal variation in forest productivity is thus critical for understanding adaptations of tropical forest frugivores, yet long-term phenology data from the tropics, in particular from African forests, are still scarce. Similarly, as the abiotic factors driving phenology in the tropics are predicted to change with a warming climate, studies documenting the relationship between climatic variables and fruit production are increasingly important. Here we present data from 19 years of monitoring the phenology of 20 tree species at Ngogo in Kibale National Park, Uganda. Our aims were to characterize short- and long-term trends in productivity and to understand the abiotic factors driving temporal variability in fruit production. Short-term (month-to-month) variability in fruiting was relatively low at Ngogo, and overall fruit production increased significantly through the first half of the study. Among the abiotic variables we expected to influence phenology patterns (including rainfall, solar irradiance, and average temperature), only average temperature was a significant predictor of monthly fruit production. We discuss these findings as they relate to the resource base of the frugivorous vertebrate community inhabiting Ngogo.

Climate Change in the Tropics: Ecological and Evolutionary Responses at Low Latitudes

Climate change is affecting every ecosystem on Earth. Though climate change is global in scope, literature reviews on the biotic impacts of climate change have focused on temperate and polar regions. Tropical species have distinct life histories and physiologies, and ecological communities are assembled differently across latitude. Thus, tropical species and communities may exhibit different responses to climate change compared with those in temperate and polar regions. What are the fingerprints of climate change in the tropics? This review summarizes the current state of knowledge on impacts of climate change in tropical regions and discusses research priorities to better understand the ways in which species and ecological communities are responding to climate change in the most biodiverse places on Earth.

Proposing the solar-wind energy flux hypothesis as a driver of inter-annual variation in tropical tree reproductive effort

PREMISE

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects tropical environmental conditions, potentially altering ecosystem function as El Niño events interact with longer-term climate change. Anomalously warm equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures affect rainfall and temperature throughout the tropics and coincide with altered leaf flush phenology and increased fruit production in wet tropical forests; however, the understanding of mechanisms underlying this pattern is limited. There is evidence that increases in tropical tree reproduction anticipate El Niño onset, motivating the continued search for a global driver of tropical angiosperm reproduction. We present the solar-wind energy flux hypothesis: that physical energy influx to the Earth's upper atmosphere and magnetosphere, generated by a positive anomaly in the solar wind preceding El Niño development, cues tropical trees to increase resource allocation to reproduction.

METHODS

We test this hypothesis using 19 years of data from Luquillo, Puerto Rico, correlating them with measures of solar-wind energy.

RESULTS

From 1994 to 2013, the solar-wind energy flux into Earth's magnetosphere (E_in ) was more strongly correlated with the number of species fruiting and flowering than the Niño 3.4 climate index, despite Niño 3.4 being previously identified as a driver of interannual increases in reproduction.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in the global magnetosphere and thermosphere conditions from increased solar-wind energy affect global atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns, principally by weakening the Walker circulation. We discuss the idea that these changes cue interannual increases in tropical tree reproduction and act through an unidentified mechanism that anticipates and synchronizes the reproductive output of the tropical trees with El Niño.

Spatio-temporal patterns of orchids flowering in Cameroonian rainforests

We characterized the flowering patterns of 45 epiphytic orchid species occurring in Cameroonian rainforests to explore the environmental and evolutionary forces driving their phenology. We used a dataset of 3470 flowering events recorded over a period of 11 years in the Yaoundé living collection (82% of the flowering events) and from in situ observations (18% of the flowering events) to (i) describe flowering frequency and timing and synchronization among taxa; (ii) test flowering patterns for phylogenetic relatedness at the generic level; and (iii) investigate the spatial patterns of phenology. An annual flowering pattern prevailed among the species selected for this study. The species-rich African genera Angraecum and Polystachya are characterized by subannual and annual frequency patterns, respectively. However, in terms of flowering time, no phylogenetic signal was detected for the four most diverse genera (Ancistrorhynchus, Angraecum, Bulbophyllum, and Polystachya). Results suggest also an important role of photoperiod and precipitation as climatic triggers of flowering patterns. Moreover, 16% of the taxa cultivated ex situ, mostly Polystachya, showed significant differences in flowering time between individuals originating from distinct climatic regions, pointing toward the existence of phenological ecotypes. Phenological plasticity, suggested by the lack of synchronized flowering in spatially disjunct populations of Polystachya, could explain the widespread radiation of this genus throughout tropical Africa. Our study highlights the need to take the spatial pattern of flowering time into account when interpreting phylogeographic patterns in central African rainforests.