The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems: Motivations, Challenges, and Applications

Using the Red List of Ecosystems and the Nature-based Solutions Global Standard as an integrated process for climate change adaptation in the Andean high mountains

Under anthropogenic pressures and climate change, most ecosystems are showing signs of reduced resilience. Unfortunately, some are more at risk of collapse and, without interventions, they may lose biodiversity, ecological integrity and ecosystem services. Here, we describe two tools that were developed under the auspices of the International Union for Conservation of Nature, the Red List of Ecosystems and the Nature-based Solutions Global Standard, and their capacity to first identify the ecosystems at risk of collapse in a nation and then develop solutions based on nature to improve their resilience. Nature-based solutions include, for example ecosystem-based adaptation, where solutions are developed to meet the needs of the local people while protecting nature to ensure greater resilience of the social-ecological system, not only the natural ecosystem. We discuss through a case study in the Andean high mountains and páramo social-ecological system how these approaches have been used in Colombia. We then discuss lessons learned and challenges that may reduce the capacity of a community to initiate such interventions, such as national policies and funding restrictions. We also discuss through another early case in Ecuador the importance to adapt these types of interventions to the geographical and cultural context of the social-ecological systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

Contributions of the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems to risk-based design and management of protected and conserved areas in Africa

Protected and conserved areas (PCAs) are key ecosystem management tools for conserving biodiversity and sustaining ecosystem services and social cobenefits. As countries adopt a 30% target for protection of land and sea under the Global Biodiversity Framework of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, a critical question emerging is, which 30%? A risk-based answer to this question is that the 30% that returns the greatest reductions in risks of species extinction and ecosystem collapse should be protected. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List protocols provide practical methods for assessing these risks. All species, including humans, depend on the integrity of ecosystems for their well-being and survival. Africa is strategically important for ecosystem management due to convergence of high ecosystem diversity, intense pressures, and high levels of human dependency on nature. We reviewed the outcomes (e.g., applications of ecosystem red-list assessments to protected-area design, conservation planning, and management) of a symposium at the inaugural African Protected Areas Congress convened to discuss roles of the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems in the design and management of PCAs. Recent progress was made in ecosystem assessment, with 920 ecosystem types assessed against the IUCN Red List criteria across 21 countries. Although these ecosystems spanned a diversity of environments across the continent, the greatest thematic gaps were for freshwater, marine, and subterranean realms, and large geographic gaps existed in North Africa and parts of West and East Africa. Assessment projects were implemented by a diverse community of government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and researchers. The assessments have influenced policy and management by informing extensions to and management of formal protected area networks supporting decision-making for sustainable development, and informing ecosystem conservation and threat abatement within boundaries of PCAs and in surrounding landscapes and seascapes. We recommend further integration of risk assessments in environmental policy and enhanced investment in ecosystem red-list assessment to fill current gaps.

A case for stronger integration of physical landscape processes in conservation science and practice

I argue that the dynamic nature of contemporary, landscape-shaping (geomorphic) processes deserves more consideration in conservation science and practice. In an analysis of a sample of fundamental terms related to geomorphology and area-based conservation in the Web of Science, I found that the terms co-occurred in <2% of the analyzed entries (titles, abstracts, and keywords) from 2000 to 2020. This result is indicative of the rather peripheral attention that, more broadly, landscape-shaping processes seem to receive in the conservation literature. Among conservation scientists and practitioners, landforms that define the physical structure of habitat are often perceived as largely static, whereas the consideration of their dynamic adjustments to geomorphic processes is often limited to extreme events. I use examples derived from river-floodplain environments to illustrate strong, multifaceted, and reciprocal interactions between biota and various erosional and depositional processes. These ubiquitous interdependencies clearly demonstrate that geomorphic processes are an integral part of ecosystem dynamics at time scales relevant for conservation. Crucially, erosional and depositional processes modulate many environmental impacts of past and current anthropogenic activities. I conclude that the absence of a more explicit and widespread consideration of geomorphic processes in conservation science and practice is surprising and detrimental to their effectiveness. I call for bolstered efforts among the conservation and geoscience communities to better integrate landscape dynamics within the field of conservation. The rise of the ecosystem-based and social-ecological systems approaches to conservation and the growth of interdisciplinary geoscience branches (e.g., biogeomorphology, ecohydraulics, and geoconservation) will facilitate such an integration.

Roles of the Red List of Ecosystems in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity set the agenda for global aspirations and action to reverse biodiversity loss. The GBF includes an explicit goal for maintaining and restoring biodiversity, encompassing ecosystems, species and genetic diversity (goal A), targets for ecosystem protection and restoration and headline indicators to track progress and guide action1. One of the headline indicators is the Red List of Ecosystems2, the global standard for ecosystem risk assessment. The Red List of Ecosystems provides a systematic framework for collating, analysing and synthesizing data on ecosystems, including their distribution, integrity and risk of collapse3. Here, we examine how it can contribute to implementing the GBF, as well as monitoring progress. We find that the Red List of Ecosystems provides common theory and practical data, while fostering collaboration, cross-sector cooperation and knowledge sharing, with important roles in 16 of the 23 targets. In particular, ecosystem maps, descriptions and risk categories are key to spatial planning for halting loss, restoration and protection (targets 1, 2 and 3). The Red List of Ecosystems is therefore well-placed to aid Parties to the GBF as they assess, plan and act to achieve the targets and goals. We outline future work to further strengthen this potential and improve biodiversity outcomes, including expanding spatial coverage of Red List of Ecosystems assessments and partnerships between practitioners, policy-makers and scientists.

The bii4africa dataset of faunal and floral population intactness estimates across Africa's major land uses

Sub-Saharan Africa is under-represented in global biodiversity datasets, particularly regarding the impact of land use on species' population abundances. Drawing on recent advances in expert elicitation to ensure data consistency, 200 experts were convened using a modified-Delphi process to estimate 'intactness scores': the remaining proportion of an 'intact' reference population of a species group in a particular land use, on a scale from 0 (no remaining individuals) to 1 (same abundance as the reference) and, in rare cases, to 2 (populations that thrive in human-modified landscapes). The resulting bii4africa dataset contains intactness scores representing terrestrial vertebrates (tetrapods: ±5,400 amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals) and vascular plants (±45,000 forbs, graminoids, trees, shrubs) in sub-Saharan Africa across the region's major land uses (urban, cropland, rangeland, plantation, protected, etc.) and intensities (e.g., large-scale vs smallholder cropland). This dataset was co-produced as part of the Biodiversity Intactness Index for Africa Project. Additional uses include assessing ecosystem condition; rectifying geographic/taxonomic biases in global biodiversity indicators and maps; and informing the Red List of Ecosystems.

The importance of expert selection when identifying threatened ecosystems

Identifying threatened ecosystem types is fundamental to conservation and management decision-making. When identification relies on expert judgment, decisions are vulnerable to inconsistent outcomes and can lack transparency. We elicited judgements of the occurrence of a widespread, critically endangered Australian ecosystem from a diverse pool of 83 experts. We asked 4 questions. First, how many experts are required to reliably conclude that the ecosystem is present? Second, how many experts are required to build a reliable model for predicting ecosystem presence? Third, given expert selection can narrow the range opinions, if enough experts are selected, do selection strategies affect model predictions? Finally, does a diverse selection of experts provide better model predictions? We used power and sample size calculations with a finite population of 200 experts to calculate the number of experts required to reliably assess ecosystem presence in a theoretical scenario. We then used boosted regression trees to model expert elicitation of 122 plots based on real-world data. For a reliable consensus (90% probability of correctly identifying presence and absence) in a relatively certain scenario (85% probability of occurrence), at least 17 experts were required. More experts were required when occurrence was less certain, and fewer were needed if permissible error rates were relaxed. In comparison, only ∼20 experts were required for a reliable model that could predict for a range of scenarios. Expert selection strategies changed modeled outcomes, often overpredicting presence and underestimating uncertainty. However, smaller but diverse pools of experts produced outcomes similar to a model built from all contributing experts. Combining elicited judgements from a diverse pool of experts in a model-based decision support tool provided an efficient aggregation of a broad range of expertise. Such models can improve the transparency and consistency of conservation and management decision-making, especially when ecosystems are defined based on complex criteria.

Four challenges to an effective national nature assessment

Comprehensive biodiversity assessments play an essential role in strengthening global and national conservation strategies. The recently announced first U.S. National Nature Assessment (NNA) provides an unparalleled opportunity to comprehensively review status and trends of biodiversity at all levels. This broad context can help in the coordination of actions to conserve individual species and ecosystems. The scientific assessments that informed the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework adopted at the 2022 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) conference of parties provide models for synthesizing information on trends at multiple levels of biodiversity, including decline in abundance and distribution of species, loss of populations and genetic diversity, and degradation and loss of ecosystems and their services. The assessments then relate these trends to data on drivers of biodiversity loss and pathways to their mitigation. The U.S. NNA can augment such global analyses and avoid the pitfalls encountered by previous U.S. efforts by ensuring policy-relevant design, data accessibility, and inclusivity in process and product and by incorporating spatial data relevant to national and subnational audiences. Although the United States is not formally a CBD party, an effective NNA should take full advantage of the global context by including indicators adopted at the 2022 meeting and incorporating an independent review mechanism that supports periodic stocktaking and ratcheting up of ambition in response to identified shortfalls in stemming biodiversity loss. The challenges to design of an effective U.S. assessment are relevant globally as nations develop assessments and reporting to support the new global biodiversity framework's targets. By considering and incorporating the diverse ways in which society values and benefits from nature, such assessments can help bridge the gap between research and conservation practice and communicate the extent of the biodiversity crisis to the public, fostering broad-based support for transformative change in humanity's relationship to the natural world.

Effects of interactions between anthropogenic stressors and recurring perturbations on ecosystem resilience and collapse

Insights into declines in ecosystem resilience and their causes and effects can inform preemptive action to avoid ecosystem collapse and loss of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. Empirical studies of ecosystem collapse are rare and hampered by ecosystem complexity, nonlinear and lagged responses, and interactions across scales. We investigated how an anthropogenic stressor could diminish ecosystem resilience to a recurring perturbation by altering a critical ecosystem driver. We studied groundwater-dependent, peat-accumulating, fire-prone wetlands known as upland swamps in southeastern Australia. We hypothesized that underground mining (stressor) reduces resilience of these wetlands to landscape fires (perturbation) by diminishing groundwater, a key ecosystem driver. We monitored soil moisture as an indicator of ecosystem resilience during and after underground mining. After landscape fire, we compared responses of multiple state variables representing ecosystem structure, composition, and function in swamps within the mining footprint with unmined reference swamps. Soil moisture declined without recovery in swamps with mine subsidence (i.e., undermined), but was maintained in reference swamps over 8 years (effect size 1.8). Relative to burned reference swamps, burned undermined swamps showed greater loss of peat via substrate combustion; reduced cover, height, and biomass of regenerating vegetation; reduced postfire plant species richness and abundance; altered plant species composition; increased mortality rates of woody plants; reduced postfire seedling recruitment; and extirpation of a hydrophilic animal. Undermined swamps therefore showed strong symptoms of postfire ecosystem collapse, whereas reference swamps regenerated vigorously. We found that an anthropogenic stressor diminished the resilience of an ecosystem to recurring perturbations, predisposing it to collapse. Avoidance of ecosystem collapse hinges on early diagnosis of mechanisms and preventative risk reduction. It may be possible to delay or ameliorate symptoms of collapse or to restore resilience, but the latter appears unlikely in our study system due to fundamental alteration of a critical ecosystem driver. Efectos de las interacciones entre los estresantes antropogénicos y las perturbaciones recurrentes sobre la resiliencia y el colapso de los ecosistemas.

Surviving in a hostile landscape: Nothofagus alessandrii remnant forests threatened by mega-fires and exotic pine invasion in the coastal range of central Chile

Nothofagus alessandrii, categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List, is an endemic, deciduous tree species of the coastal range of central Chile. We assessed the effects of fire severity, invasion by the exotic fire-prone Pinus radiata, and land-cover composition and configuration of the landscape on the resilience of fragments of N. alessandrii after a mega-fire in 2017. We used remote sensing data to estimate land-use classes and cover, fire severity and invasion cover of P. radiata. We monitored forest composition and structure and post-fire responses of N. alessandrii forests in situ for 2 years after the mega-fire. In the coastal Maule region wildfires have been favoured by intense drought and widespread exotic pine plantations, increasing the ability of fire-adapted invasive species to colonize native forest remnants. Over 85% of N. alessandrii forests were moderately or severely burnt. The propagation and severity of fire was probably amplified by the exotic pines located along the edges of, or inside, the N. alessandrii fragments and the highly flammable pine plantations surrounding these fragments (> 60% of land use is pine plantations). Pinus radiata, a fire-adapted pioneer species, showed strong post-fire recruitment within the N. alessandrii fragments, especially those severely burnt. Positive feedback between climate change (i.e. droughts and heat waves), wildfires and pine invasions is driving N. alessandrii forests into an undesirable and probably irreversible state (i.e. a landscape trap). A large-scale restoration programme to design a diverse and less flammable landscape is needed to avoid the loss of these highly threatened forest ecosystems.

High-resolution global maps of tidal flat ecosystems from 1984 to 2019

Assessments of the status of tidal flats, one of the most extensive coastal ecosystems, have been hampered by a lack of data on their global distribution and change. Here we present globally consistent, spatially-explicit data of the occurrence of tidal flats, defined as sand, rock or mud flats that undergo regular tidal inundation. More than 1.3 million Landsat images were processed to 54 composite metrics for twelve 3-year periods, spanning four decades (1984–1986 to 2017–2019). The composite metrics were used as predictor variables in a machine-learning classification trained with more than 10,000 globally distributed training samples. We assessed accuracy of the classification with 1,348 stratified random samples across the mapped area, which indicated overall map accuracies of 82.2% (80.0–84.3%, 95% confidence interval) and 86.1% (84.2–86.8%, 95% CI) for version 1.1 and 1.2 of the data, respectively. We expect these maps will provide a means to measure and monitor a range of processes that are affecting coastal ecosystems, including the impacts of human population growth and sea level rise.

Measurement(s)	ecosystem occurrence
Technology Type(s)	earth observation
Sample Characteristic - Environment	tidal flats • coastal wetlands
Sample Characteristic - Location	global

Mainstreaming the Ambition, Coherence, and Comprehensiveness of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework Into Conservation Policy

Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity are finalizing a new Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) to more effectively guide efforts by the world’s nations to address global loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Each party is required to mainstream the new framework and its component targets into national conservation strategies. To date, such strategies have been criticized as largely aspirational and lacking clear linkages to national policy mechanisms, which has contributed to the world’s general failure to meet the Convention’s previous targets. We use the United States and European Union as examples to compare and contrast opportunities and barriers for mainstreaming the GBF more effectively into policy. The European Union and United States have unique relationships to the Convention, the former being the only supranational party and the latter, having signed but never ratified the treaty, adopting Convention targets on an ad hoc basis. The contrasting conservation policy frameworks of these two polities illustrate several conceptual issues central to biodiversity conservation and demonstrate how insights from the GBF can strengthen biodiversity policy even in atypical contexts. We focus on three characteristics of the GBF which are essential if policy is to effectively motivate and guide efforts to halt and reverse biodiversity loss: comprehensiveness, coherence, and ambition. Statutes in both the United States and European Union provide a strong foundation for mainstreaming the GBF’s comprehensiveness, coherence, and ambition, but policy development and implementation falls short. We identify six common themes among the reforms needed to successfully achieve targets for reversing biodiversity loss: broadening conservation focus to all levels of biodiversity, better coordinating conservation strategies that protect sites and landscapes with those focused on biodiversity elements (e.g., species), coordinating biodiversity conservation with efforts to safeguard ecosystem services including ecosystem-based climate mitigation and adaptation, more coherent scaling of targets from global to local extents, adoption of a more ambitious vision for recovery of biodiversity, and development of effective tracking and accountability mechanisms.

DarkCideS 1.0, a global database for bats in karsts and caves

Understanding biodiversity patterns as well as drivers of population declines, and range losses provides crucial baselines for monitoring and conservation. However, the information needed to evaluate such trends remains unstandardised and sparsely available for many taxonomic groups and habitats, including the cave-dwelling bats and cave ecosystems. We developed the DarkCideS 1.0 (https://darkcides.org/), a global database of bat caves and species synthesised from publicly available information and datasets. The DarkCideS 1.0 is by far the largest database for cave-dwelling bats, which contains information for geographical location, ecological status, species traits, and parasites and hyperparasites for 679 bat species are known to occur in caves or use caves in part of their life histories. The database currently contains 6746 georeferenced occurrences for 402 cave-dwelling bat species from 2002 cave sites in 46 countries and 12 terrestrial biomes. The database has been developed to be collaborative and open-access, allowing continuous data-sharing among the community of bat researchers and conservation biologists to advance bat research and comparative monitoring and prioritisation for conservation.

Measurement(s)	spatial region
Technology Type(s)	occurrent
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Mammalia • Chiroptera sp. BOLD:AAA2524
Sample Characteristic - Environment	cave system • karst cave
Sample Characteristic - Location	Global

Improving species status assessments under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and implications for multispecies conservation challenges worldwide

Despite its successes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has proven challenging to implement due to funding limitations, workload backlog, and other problems. As threats to species survival intensify and as more species come under threat, the need for the ESA and similar conservation laws and policies in other countries to function efficiently has grown. Attempts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to streamline ESA decisions include multispecies recovery plans and habitat conservation plans. We address species status assessment (SSA), a USFWS process to inform ESA decisions from listing to recovery, within the context of multispecies and ecosystem planning. Although existing SSAs have a single-species focus, ecosystem-based research can efficiently inform multiple SSAs within a region and provide a foundation for transition to multispecies SSAs in the future. We considered at-risk grassland species and ecosystems within the southeastern United States, where a disproportionate number of rare and endemic species are associated with grasslands. To initiate our ecosystem-based approach, we used a combined literature-based and structured World Café workshop format to identify science needs for SSAs. Discussions concentrated on 5 categories of threats to grassland species and ecosystems, consistent with recommendations to make shared threats a focus of planning under the ESA: (1) habitat loss, fragmentation, and disruption of functional connectivity; (2) climate change; (3) altered disturbance regimes; (4) invasive species; and (5) localized impacts. For each threat, workshop participants identified science and information needs, including database availability, research priorities, and modeling and mapping needs. Grouping species by habitat and shared threats can make the SSA process and other planning processes for conservation of at-risk species worldwide more efficient and useful. We found a combination of literature review and structured discussion effective for identifying the scientific information and analysis needed to support the development of multiple SSAs. Article impact statement: Species status assessments can be improved by an ecosystem-based approach that groups imperiled species by shared habitats and threats.

Scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal, milestones and indicators for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework

Despite substantial conservation efforts, the loss of ecosystems continues globally, along with related declines in species and nature's contributions to people. An effective ecosystem goal, supported by clear milestones, targets and indicators, is urgently needed for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and beyond to support biodiversity conservation, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and efforts to abate climate change. Here, we describe the scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal and milestones, founded on a theory of change, and review available indicators to measure progress. An ecosystem goal should include three core components: area, integrity and risk of collapse. Targets-the actions that are necessary for the goals to be met-should address the pathways to ecosystem loss and recovery, including safeguarding remnants of threatened ecosystems, restoring their area and integrity to reduce risk of collapse and retaining intact areas. Multiple indicators are needed to capture the different dimensions of ecosystem area, integrity and risk of collapse across all ecosystem types, and should be selected for their fitness for purpose and relevance to goal components. Science-based goals, supported by well-formulated action targets and fit-for-purpose indicators, will provide the best foundation for reversing biodiversity loss and sustaining human well-being.

Towards a more healthy conservation paradigm: integrating disease and molecular ecology to aid biological conservation†

Parasites, and the diseases they cause, are important from an ecological and evolutionary perspective because they can negatively affect host fitness and can regulate host populations. Consequently, conservation biology has long recognized the vital role that parasites can play in the process of species endangerment and recovery. However, we are only beginning to understand how deeply parasites are embedded in ecological systems, and there is a growing recognition of the important ways in which parasites affect ecosystem structure and function. Thus, there is an urgent need to revisit how parasites are viewed from a conservation perspective and broaden the role that disease ecology plays in conservation-related research and outcomes. This review broadly focusses on the role that disease ecology can play in biological conservation. Our review specifically emphasizes on how the integration of tools and analytical approaches associated with both disease and molecular ecology can be leveraged to aid conservation biology. Our review first concentrates on disease-mediated extinctions and wildlife epidemics. We then focus on elucidating how host–parasite interactions has improved our understanding of the eco-evolutionary dynamics affecting hosts at the individual, population, community and ecosystem scales. We believe that the role of parasites as drivers and indicators of ecosystem health is especially an exciting area of research that has the potential to fundamentally alter our view of parasites and their role in biological conservation. The review concludes with a broad overview of the current and potential applications of modern genomic tools in disease ecology to aid biological conservation.

The global impact of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) on terrestrial biodiversity

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is a comprehensive database of over 120,000 species and is a powerful tool to evaluate the threat of invasive species to global biodiversity. Several problematic species have gained global recognition due to comprehensive threat assessments quantifying the threat these species pose to biodiversity using large datasets like the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, the global threat of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) to biodiversity is still poorly understood despite well-documented ecosystem level impacts. In this study, we utilized the IUCN Red List to quantify the impacts of this globally distributed species throughout its native and non-native range. Here we show that wild pigs threaten 672 taxa in 54 different countries across the globe. Most of these taxa are listed as critically endangered or endangered and 14 species have been driven to extinction as a direct result of impacts from wild pigs. Our results show that threats from wild pigs are pervasive across taxonomic groups and that island endemics and taxa throughout the non-native range of wild pigs are particularly vulnerable.

Arresting fake news sharing on social media: a theory of planned behavior approach

Purpose

This study aims to examine the collective impact of awareness and knowledge about fake news, attitudes toward news verification, perceived behavioral control, subjective norms, fear of missing out (FoMO) and sadism on social media users’ intention to verify news before sharing on social media.

Design/methodology/approach

The current study’s conceptual framework is developed by a comprehensive literature review on social networking and the theory of planned behavior. The data for samples were collected from 400 respondents in India to test the conceptual framework using the partial least square–structural equation modeling technique.

Findings

The results show that awareness and knowledge, perceived behavioral control, attitudes toward news verification and FoMO are significant predictors of intention to verify news before sharing.

Research limitations/implications

The present study concludes implications for managers of social media companies and policy actors that want to take steps toward arresting the spread of fake news via social media.

Originality/value

Academic investigation on fake news sharing on social media has recently gained traction. The current work is unique because it uses the theory of planned behavior as a basis for predicting social media user’s intention to verify news before sharing on social media.

Under the surface: what we know about the threats to subterranean fishes in Brazil

Abstract The present work brings information on threats to the subterranean fishes in Brazil. Currently, at least 36 species are known, 22 of which are already formally described. Endemism is the rule for most of them. Regarding their conservation, these fishes are in general considered threatened: and most of the already formally described species are included in national lists of threatened fauna, and only four of them are included in the global list of the IUCN. Regarding habitats, Brazilian subterranean fishes occur in alluvial sediments (part of the hyporheic zone), shallow base-level streams, flooded caves, lakes in the water table, upper vadose tributaries, and epikarst aquifers. We detected 11 main threats, mainly related to agriculture, pasture, and hydroelectric plans, but unmanaged tourism and pollution are also significant threats. Two threats affect a high number of species (physical change of the habitat and food restriction). The river basins with the higher number of identified threats are the upper Tocantins (eight) followed by the upper Paraguaçu (six). Effective proposals to protect this neglected component of the Brazilian biodiversity are still scarce, such as monitoring projects and their function in the subterranean communities, besides education projects aiming to develop public awareness.

Anthropogenic threats to evolutionary heritage of angiosperms in the Netherlands through an increase in high-competition environments

Present biodiversity comprises the evolutionary heritage of Earth's epochs. Lineages from particular epochs are often found in particular habitats, but whether current habitat decline threatens the heritage from particular epochs is unknown. We hypothesized that within a given region, humans threaten specifically habitats that harbor lineages from a particular geological epoch. We expect so because humans threaten environments that dominated and lineages that diversified during these epochs. We devised a new approach to quantify, per habitat type, diversification of lineages from different epochs. For Netherlands, one of the floristically and ecologically best-studied regions, we quantified the decline of habitat types and species in the past century. We defined habitat types based on vegetation classification and used existing ranking of decline of vegetation classes and species. Currently, most declining habitat types and the group of red-listed species are characterized by increased diversification of lineages dating back to Paleogene, specifically to Paleocene-Eocene and Oligocene. Among vulnerable habitat types with large representation of lineages from these epochs were sublittoral and eulittoral zones of temperate seas and 2 types of nutrient-poor, open habitats. These losses of evolutionary heritage would go unnoticed with classical measures of evolutionary diversity. Loss of heritage from Paleocene-Eocene became unrelated to decline once low competition, shade tolerance, and low proportion of non-Apiaceae were accounted for, suggesting that these variables explain the loss of heritage from Paleocene-Eocene. Losses of heritage from Oligocene were partly explained by decline of habitat types occupied by weak competitors and shade-tolerant species. Our results suggest a so-far unappreciated human threat to evolutionary heritage: habitat decline threatens descendants from particular epochs. If the trends persist into the future uncontrolled, there may be no habitats within the region for many descendants of evolutionary ancient epochs, such as Paleogene.

Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change

Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species' conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.

Revised criteria system for a national assessment of threatened habitats in Germany

The Red List of threatened habitat types in Germany was first published in 1994 and it is updated approximately every ten years. In 2017 the third version was published by the German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation. In the course of the revision, the criteria system was also extended. In doing so, an attempt was made to find a compromise between the consideration of international developments that had taken place and existing national requirements. In particular, short-term developments should become visible through the German Red List status. In addition to ‘National long-term Threat’, the valuation now also includes ‘Current Trend’ and ‘Rarity’. Following the IUCN’s approach, the collapse risk is now represented on the basis of several criteria. However, in contrast to the IUCN procedure, where the worst evaluated criterion is determinative for Red List status, in our procedure all criteria are included in the evaluation. To counteract misleading signal-effects for management decisions, all significant criteria have an influence on the resulting German Red List status (RLG). They are combined in an assessment scheme. In order to map the overall risk of loss, both the long-term threat as a historical reference value and furthermore the current trend must have an influence on RLG. As a result, 65% of habitat types have differing risk of loss.

Altered ignition catchments threaten a hyperdiverse fire-dependent ecosystem

Human activities affect fire in many ways, often unintentionally or with considerable time-lags before they manifest themselves. Anticipating these changes is critical, so that insidious impacts on ecosystems, their biodiversity and associated goods and services can be avoided, mitigated or managed. Here we explore the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on fire and biodiversity in adjacent ecosystems on the hyperdiverse Cape Peninsula, South Africa. We develop a conceptual framework based on the notion of an ignition catchment, or the spatial extent and temporal range where an ignition is likely to result in a site burning. We apply this concept using fire models to estimate spatial changes in burn probability between historical and current land cover. This change layer was used to predict the observed record of fires and forest encroachment into fire-dependent Fynbos ecosystems in Table Mountain National Park. Urban expansion has created anthropogenic fire shadows that are modifying fire return intervals, facilitating a state shift to low-diversity, non-flammable forest at the expense of hyperdiverse, flammable Fynbos ecosystems. Despite occurring in a conservation area, these ecosystems are undergoing a hidden collapse and desperately require management intervention. Anthropogenic fire shadows can be caused by many human activities and are likely to be a universal phenomenon, not only contributing to the observed global decline in fire activity but also causing extreme fires in ecosystems where there is no shift to a less flammable state and flammable fuels accumulate. The ignition catchment framework is highly flexible and allows detection or prediction of changes in the fire regime, the threat this poses for ecosystems or fire risk and areas where management interventions and/or monitoring are required. Identifying anthropogenic impacts on ignition catchments is key for both understanding global impacts of humans on fire and guiding management of human-altered landscapes for desirable outcomes.

A Practical Index to Estimate Mangrove Conservation Status: The Forests from La Paz Bay, Mexico as a Case Study

Mangrove cover has declined significantly in recent years in tropical and subtropical areas around the world. Under this scenario, it is necessary to elaborate and implement tools that allow us to make estimations on their conservation status and improve their protection and support decision-making. This study developed an index using qualitative and quantitative data. The criterions used in the index were: (1) Remnant Vegetation Index, (2) Delphi Method Survey, and (3) Rapid Assessment Questionnaire. In turn, the weights of the criterions were defined using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Once the values of each criterion were obtained, the index was applied to 17 mangrove communities located in La Paz Bay, Mexico. Finally, according to their score, they were classified based on the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems. The results show that five communities were ranked in the category Minor Concern, eight in Little Threatened, one in Vulnerable, one in Endangered, and two were classified as Deficiency of Data. These results are slightly different from other studies in the region and validate this index as a proper method. Therefore, it could be applied to other sites, especially in areas with little information and/or scarce monetary resources.

The paradoxical extinction of the most charismatic animals

A widespread opinion is that conservation efforts disproportionately benefit charismatic species. However, this doesn't mean that they are not threatened, and which species are "charismatic" remains unclear. Here, we identify the 10 most charismatic animals and show that they are at high risk of imminent extinction in the wild. We also find that the public ignores these animals' predicament and we suggest it could be due to the observed biased perception of their abundance, based more on their profusion in our culture than on their natural populations. We hypothesize that this biased perception impairs conservation efforts because people are unaware that the animals they cherish face imminent extinction and do not perceive their urgent need for conservation. By freely using the image of rare and threatened species in their product marketing, many companies may participate in creating this biased perception, with unintended detrimental effects on conservation efforts, which should be compensated by channeling part of the associated profits to conservation. According to our hypothesis, this biased perception would be likely to last as long as the massive cultural and commercial presence of charismatic species is not accompanied by adequate information campaigns about the imminent threats they face.

Scaling range sizes to threats for robust predictions of risks to biodiversity

Assessments of risk to biodiversity often rely on spatial distributions of species and ecosystems. Range-size metrics used extensively in these assessments, such as area of occupancy (AOO), are sensitive to measurement scale, prompting proposals to measure them at finer scales or at different scales based on the shape of the distribution or ecological characteristics of the biota. Despite its dominant role in red-list assessments for decades, appropriate spatial scales of AOO for predicting risks of species' extinction or ecosystem collapse remain untested and contentious. There are no quantitative evaluations of the scale-sensitivity of AOO as a predictor of risks, the relationship between optimal AOO scale and threat scale, or the effect of grid uncertainty. We used stochastic simulation models to explore risks to ecosystems and species with clustered, dispersed, and linear distribution patterns subject to regimes of threat events with different frequency and spatial extent. Area of occupancy was an accurate predictor of risk (0.81<|r|<0.98) and performed optimally when measured with grid cells 0.1-1.0 times the largest plausible area threatened by an event. Contrary to previous assertions, estimates of AOO at these relatively coarse scales were better predictors of risk than finer-scale estimates of AOO (e.g., when measurement cells are <1% of the area of the largest threat). The optimal scale depended on the spatial scales of threats more than the shape or size of biotic distributions. Although we found appreciable potential for grid-measurement errors, current IUCN guidelines for estimating AOO neutralize geometric uncertainty and incorporate effective scaling procedures for assessing risks posed by landscape-scale threats to species and ecosystems.

Shifts of community composition and population density substantially affect ecosystem function despite invariant richness

There has been considerable focus on the impacts of environmental change on ecosystem function arising from changes in species richness. However, environmental change may affect ecosystem function without affecting richness, most notably by affecting population densities and community composition. Using a theoretical model, we find that, despite invariant richness, (1) small environmental effects may already lead to a collapse of function; (2) competitive strength may be a less important determinant of ecosystem function change than the selectivity of the environmental change driver and (3) effects on ecosystem function increase when effects on composition are larger. We also present a complementary statistical analysis of 13 data sets of phytoplankton and periphyton communities exposed to chemical stressors and show that effects on primary production under invariant richness ranged from -75% to +10%. We conclude that environmental protection goals relying on measures of richness could underestimate ecological impacts of environmental change.