Mainstreaming Impact Evaluation in Nature Conservation

An impact evaluation of conservation investments targeting long-distance migratory species

We evaluated the impact of a philanthropic program investing in the conservation of sites along the Pacific Americas Flyway, which spans >16,000 km of coastline and is used by millions of shorebirds. Using a quasi-experimental, mixed methods approach, we estimated what would have happened to shorebird populations at 17 wintering sites without the sustained and additional investment they received. We modeled shorebird populations across the entire flyway and at sites with and without investment. Combining shorebird abundance estimates with a land-cover classification model, we used the synthetic control method to create counterfactuals for shorebird trends at the treatment sites. We found no evidence of an overall effect across three outcome variables. Species- and site-level treatment effects were heterogeneous, with a few cases showing evidence of a positive effect, including a site with a high level of overall investment. Results suggest six shorebirds declined across the entire flyway, including at many Latin American sites. However, the percentage of flyway populations present at the sites remained stable, and the percentage at the treatment sites was higher (i.e., investment sites) than at control sites. Multiple mechanisms behind our results are possible, including that investments have yet to mitigate impacts and negative impacts at other sites are driving declines at the treatment sites. A limitation of our evaluation is the sole focus on shorebird abundance and the lack of data that prohibits the inclusion of other outcome variables. Monitoring infrastructure is now in place to design a more robust and a priori shorebird evaluation framework across the entire flyway. With this framework, it will prove easier to prioritize limited dollars to result in the most positive conservation outcomes.

The decision maker's lament: If I only had some science!

Environmental decision makers lament instances in which the lack of actionable science limits confident decision-making. Their reaction when the needed scientific information is of poor quality, uninformative, unintelligible, or altogether absent is often to criticize scientists, their work, or science in general. The considerations offered here encourage decision makers to explore alternative approaches to alleviate their disappointment. Ironically, many researchers lament the lack of support for the science they wish to deliver and accuse decision makers of failing to realize the value of the scientific studies they propose. Both communities would benefit by remembering that producing actionable science for a pending decision requires knowing the context for that decision beforehand. They may also look inward. Only then will they find answers to the question: What can I do within my own capacity to ensure that the necessary actionable science becomes available and facilitate its use to inform decisions?

Exploring local perceptions and drivers of engagement in biodiversity monitoring among participants in payments for ecosystem services schemes in southeastern Mexico

Payments for ecosystem services (PES) are widely applied incentive-based instruments with diverse objectives that increasingly include biodiversity conservation. Yet, there is a gap in understanding of how to best assess and monitor programs' biodiversity outcomes. We examined perceptions and drivers of engagement related to biodiversity monitoring through surveys among current PES participants in 7 communities in Mexico's Selva Lacandona. We conducted workshops among survey participants that included training and field deployment of tools used to monitor biodiversity and land cover, including visual transects, camera traps, acoustic recorders, and forest cover satellite images. We conducted pre- and postworkshop surveys in each community to evaluate changes in respondents' perceptions following exposure to biodiversity monitoring training and related field activities. We also reviewed existing research on participatory environmental management and monitoring approaches. One quarter of current PES participants in the study area participated in our surveys and workshops. The majority stated interest in engaging in diverse activities related to the procedural aspects of biodiversity monitoring (e.g., planning, field data collection, results dissemination) and acknowledged multiple benefits of introducing biodiversity monitoring into PES (e.g., knowledge and capacity building, improved natural resource management, and greater support for conservation). Household economic reliance on PES was positively associated with willingness to engage in monitoring. Technical expertise, time, and monetary constraints were deterrents. Respondents were most interested in monitoring mammals, birds, and plants and using visual transects, camera traps, and forest cover satellite images. Exposure to monitoring enhanced subsequent interest in monitoring by providing respondents with new insights from their communities related to deforestation and species' abundance and diversity. Respondents identified key strengths and weaknesses of applying different monitoring tools, which suggests that deploying multiple tools simultaneously can increase local engagement and produce complementary findings and data. Overall, our findings support the relevance and usefulness of incorporating participatory biodiversity monitoring into PES.

Systematic review of the impact of restrictive wildlife trade measures on conservation of iconic species in southern Africa

Trade restrictions are often advocated and implemented as measures to protect wild species threatened by overexploitation. However, in some instances, their efficacy has been questioned, notably by governments in the southern African (SADC) region, which tend to favor a sustainable use approach to wildlife management. We conducted a systematic review of published literature guided by the PRISMA process to examine the effectiveness of trade restrictions and directly related control measures in addressing threats to species conservation in the SADC region, with a focus on elephants (Loxodonta sp.), rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum, Diceros bicornis), lions (Panthera leo), and pangolins (Manis sp.). We focused in particular on the direct conservation impact of trade restrictions at species or population level, indirect conservation impact at human behavior or attitude level, and socioeconomic impact on rural livelihoods and well-being and on national economies. Research on these topics was uneven and focused strongly on the effects of trade restrictions and law enforcement on crime-related behavior. Research gaps include socioeconomic impacts of trade restrictions, including effects of international restrictions on local livelihoods and consequent secondary conservation impacts, and evaluations of attempts to disrupt criminal networks. Based on the reviewed impact evidence, the effectiveness of international trade restrictions depends on a range of fully aligned measures in countries of origin, transit, and consumption. For example, our results suggest positive ecological short-term but negative or unknown long-term socioeconomic impacts of domestic restrictions. Based on these findings, key policy requirements include more nuanced approaches to incorporate a range of appropriate measures in range, transit, and consumer countries, that focus on capacity development for early detection and apprehension of incursions inside protected areas; measures for constructive engagement with relevant local communities outside protected areas; and future research to improve understanding of the socioeconomic contribution of wildlife.

Evaluating the impact of private land conservation with synthetic control design

Programs to protect biodiversity on private land are increasingly being used worldwide. To understand the efficacy of such programs, it is important to determine their impact: the difference between the program's outcome and what would have happened without the program. Typically, these programs are evaluated by estimating the average program-level impact, which readily allows comparisons between programs or regions, but masks important heterogeneity in impact across the individual conservation interventions. We used synthetic control design, statistical matching, and time-series data to estimate the impact of individual protected areas over time and combined individual-level impacts to estimate program-level impact with a meta-analytic approach. We applied the method to private protected areas governed by conservation covenants (legally binding on-title agreements to protect biodiversity) in the Goldfields region of Victoria, Australia using woody vegetation cover as our outcome variable. We compared our results with traditional approaches to estimating program-level impact based on a subset of covenants that were the same age. Our results showed an overall program-level impact of a 0.3-0.8% increase in woody vegetation cover per year. However, there was significant heterogeneity in the temporal pattern of impact for individual covenants, ranging from -4 to +7% change in woody vegetation cover per year. Results of our approach were consistent with results based on traditional approaches to estimating program-level impact. Our study provides a transparent and robust workflow to estimate individual and program-level impacts of private protected areas.

Quantifying population-level conservation impacts for a perpetual conservation program on private land

Area-based targets, such as percentages of regions protected, are popular metrics of success in the protection of nature. While easily quantified, these targets can be uninformative about the effectiveness of conservation interventions and should be complemented by program impact evaluations. However, most impact evaluations have examined the effect of protected areas on deforestation. Studies that have extended these evaluations to more dynamic systems or different outcomes are less common, largely due to data availability. In these cases, simulations might prove to be a valuable tool for gaining an understanding of the potential range of program effect sizes. Here, we employ simulations of wetland drainage to estimate the impact of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Small Wetlands Acquisition Program (SWAP) across a ten-year period in terms of wetland area, and breeding waterfowl and brood abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana. Using our simulation results, we estimate a plausible range of program impact for the SWAP as an avoided loss of between 0.00% and 0.02% of the carrying capacity for broods and breeding waterfowl from 2008-2017. Despite the low programmatic impact that these results suggest, the perpetual nature of SWAP governance provides promising potential for a higher cumulative conservation impact in the long term if future wetland drainage occurs.

A guide to qualitative attribution methods for evaluation in conservation

Knowledge of what conservation interventions improve biodiversity outcomes, and in which circumstances, is imperative. Experimental and quasi-experimental methods are increasingly used to establish causal inference and build the evidence base on the effectiveness of interventions, but their ability to provide insight into how and under what conditions an intervention should be implemented to improve biodiversity outcomes faces limitations. A suite of attribution methods that leverage qualitative methods for causal inference is available but underutilized in conversation impact evaluation. This article provides a guide to 5 such qualitative attribution methods: contribution analysis, process tracing, realist evaluation, qualitative comparative analysis, and most significant change. It defines and introduces each method and then illustrates how they could be applied through a case study of community conservancies in Namibia. This guide provides examples of how qualitative attribution methods can advance knowledge of what works, in which contexts, and why in biodiversity conservation.

Identifying socioeconomic and biophysical factors driving forest loss in protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) are a commonly used strategy to confront forest conversion and biodiversity loss. Although determining drivers of forest loss is central to conservation success, understanding of them is limited by conventional modeling assumptions. We used random forest regression to evaluate potential drivers of deforestation in PAs in Mexico, while accounting for nonlinear relationships and higher order interactions underlying deforestation processes. Socioeconomic drivers (e.g., road density, human population density) and underlying biophysical conditions (e.g., precipitation, distance to water, elevation, slope) were stronger predictors of forest loss than PA characteristics, such as age, type, and management effectiveness. Within PA characteristics, variables reflecting collaborative and equitable management and PA size were the strongest predictors of forest loss, albeit with less explanatory power than socioeconomic and biophysical variables. In contrast to previously used methods, which typically have been based on the assumption of linear relationships, we found that the associations between most predictors and forest loss are nonlinear. Our results can inform decisions on the allocation of PA resources by strengthening management in PAs with the highest risk of deforestation and help preemptively protect key biodiversity areas that may be vulnerable to deforestation in the future.

Exploring cost-effective measure portfolios for ecosystem services optimization under large-scale vegetation restoration

Ecosystem services-based land management incorporates environmental features and social needs, providing an important opportunity to realize global sustainability goals. Recent decades, the interaction among water-related ecosystem services (ESs) is getting ambiguous during regional vegetation restoration, which entails challenges for coordinating restoration actions, economic resources, and water-soil resources' availability. In this study, we first explored mechanism of trade-offs among five water-related ESs in the Chinese Loess Plateau under vegetation restoration. Given the decreased baseflow and its widespread trade-offs with water quality, we then developed four scenarios aiming at enhancing the baseflow and nutrient retention in a cost-effective way, by engaging a spatially explicit biophysical software tool-the RIOS model. Moreover, we selected four typical watersheds in the Loess Plateau as cases to demonstrate the differentiated information on the budget levels and the activity sites. The results indicated that, a deep mechanism of scale effects of trade-off among ESs was largely related to spatial heterogeneity rather than spatial resolution, which also affected activity portfolios under different ES scenarios. For the entire Loess Plateau, activity of forest maintenance should be concentrated on the cost-effective locations of investment for the enhancement of baseflow and nutrient retention. Under the regular budget scenarios, trade-offs only could be locally alleviated in reality, while dropping the high-cost ES objectives is an advisable strategy for minimizing investment risk. Taking conservation agricultural practices in the plain river basins should be regarded as a priority when budget can be increased. In contrast, an approach of 'governing by non-interference' for typical watersheds of re-vegetation was sensible strategy for avoiding trade-offs aggravation. These findings emphasized interrelation between the mechanism of ESs trade-offs and activity portfolios, which is an important basis for the implementation of conservation activities in real world context, and a rational reference for the simulation of desired ES goals in future studies.

A global evaluation of the effectiveness of voluntary REDD+ projects at reducing deforestation and degradation in the moist tropics

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) projects aim to contribute to climate change mitigation by protecting and enhancing carbon stocks in tropical forests, but there have been no systematic global evaluations of their impact. We used a new data set for tropical humid forests and a standardized evaluation approach (based on pixel matching) to quantify the performance of a representative sample of 40 voluntary REDD+ projects in 9 countries certified under the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS). In the first 5 years of implementation, deforestation within project areas was reduced by 47% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24-68) compared with matched counterfactual pixels, and degradation rates were 58% lower (95% CI: 49-63). Reductions were small in absolute terms but greater in sites located in high-deforestation settings and did not appear to be substantially undermined by leakage activities in forested areas within 10 km of project boundaries. At the 26th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the international community renewed its commitment to tackling tropical deforestation as a nature-based solution to climate change. Our results indicate that incentivizing forest conservation through voluntary site-based projects can slow tropical deforestation and highlight the particular importance of prioritizing financing for areas at greater risk of deforestation.

'Walking the talk': Applying community-based social marketing to a pilot food waste programme at Lincoln Park Zoo

Zoos and aquariums are uniquely situated to encourage the adoption of pro-environmental behaviours by the public at large. While the activation of conservation behaviours in a visitor base is necessary, there is an equally essential call to 'walk the talk' by aligning organizational missions and identity with internal practice. This study evaluated an adapted community-based social marketing (CBSM) model to foster food waste-related behaviour change in a unique audience of zoo staff and volunteers. This paper describes an innovative, real-world example of how conservation institutions can modify conservation psychology theories and the CBSM framework for the practical application of mission-aligned pro-environmental behaviour change campaigns. While audience engagement fluctuated throughout the campaign, we observed an attitudinal and/or behavioural shift in our target audience as a result of the campaign, indicating some success in achieving positive outcomes. The implications of these findings are discussed and recommendations are made about how to sustain momentum and participation in campaigns, including the utility of a scale for engagement approaches relative to organizational capacity and resources available.

Detecting wildlife poaching: a rigorous method for comparing patrol strategies using an experimental design

Many studies of wildlife poaching acknowledge the challenges of detecting poaching activities, but few address the issue. Data on poaching may be an inaccurate reflection of the true spatial distribution of events because of low detection rates. The deployment of conservation and law enforcement resources based on biased data could be ineffective or lead to unintended outcomes. Here, we present a rigorous method for estimating the probabilities of detecting poaching and for evaluating different patrol strategies. We illustrate the method with a case study in which imitation snares were set in a private nature reserve in South Africa. By using an experimental design with a known spatial distribution of imitation snares, we estimated the detection probability of the current patrol strategy used in the reserve and compared it to three alternative patrol strategies: spatially focused patrols, patrols with independent observers, and systematic search patterns. Although detection probabilities were generally low, the highest proportion of imitation snares was detected with systematic search strategies. Our study provides baseline data on the probability of detecting snares used for poaching, and presents a method that can be modified for use in other regions and for other types of wildlife poaching.

Understanding the social impacts of enforcement activities on illegal wildlife trade in China

Illegal wildlife trade enforcement is a cornerstone conservation strategy worldwide, yet we have a limited understanding on its social impacts. Using Chinese online wildlife seizure news (2003-2018), we evaluated the interactions among enforcement operations, news frequency, and social engagement (i.e., whistle-blowing) frequency. Our results showed that intensive enforcement operations, which commenced after 2012, have social impacts by increasing the frequency of all seizure news significantly by 28% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 5%, 51%] and those via whistle-blowing by 24% [95% CI: 2%, 45%], when compared to counterfactual models where possible confounding factors were accounted for. Furthermore, we revealed the potential interaction between enforcement seizure news with and without social engagement, and the consequential social feedback process. Of the species identified from 'whistle-blowing' news, up to 28% are considered as high conservation priorities. Overall, we expanded our understanding of the enforcement impacts to social dimensions, which could contribute to improving the cost-effectiveness of such conservation efforts.

Projecting biodiversity benefits of conservation behavior-change programs

Biodiversity loss is driven by human behavior, but there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of behavior-change programs in delivering benefits to biodiversity. To demonstrate their value, the biodiversity benefits and cost-effectiveness of behavior changes that directly or indirectly affect biodiversity need to be quantified. We adapted a structured decision-making prioritization tool to determine the potential biodiversity benefits of behavior changes. As a case study, we examined two hypothetical behavior-change programs--wildlife gardening and cat containment--by asking experts to consider the behaviors associated with these programs that directly and indirectly affect biodiversity. We assessed benefits to southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus) and superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus) by eliciting from experts estimates of the probability of each species persisting in the landscape given a range of behavior-change scenarios in which uptake of the behaviors varied. We then compared these estimates to a business-as-usual scenario to determine the relative biodiversity benefit and cost-effectiveness of each scenario. Experts projected that the behavior-change programs would benefit biodiversity and that benefits would rise with increasing uptake of the target behaviors. Biodiversity benefits were also predicted to accrue through indirect behaviors, although experts disagreed about the magnitude of additional benefit provided. Scenarios that combined the two behavior-change programs were estimated to provide the greatest benefits to species and be most cost-effective. Our method could be used in other contexts and potentially at different scales and advances the use of prioritization tools to guide conservation behavior-change programs.

Governance Innovations for forest ecosystem service provision - Insights from an EU-wide survey

This paper analyses the occurrence of governance innovations for forest ecosystem service (FES) provision in the forestry sector in Europe and the factors that influence innovation development. Based on a European-wide online survey, public and private forest owners and managers representing different property sizes indicate what type of governance innovation activities they engage in, and why. To investigate forestry innovations as systems, the analysis focuses on biophysical, social and technical factors influencing innovation development. The results of our exploratory quantitative analysis show that most innovation activities identified are largely oriented towards biomass production. Accordingly, most forest owners implement efficiency-driven optimisation strategies for forest management and technological improvement for provisioning service supply, to generate income. In contrast, the provision of regulating and cultural services is not yet a prominent part of forestry innovation activities.Reasons are rooted in a market-oriented economic rationale focusing on timber production, a lack of financial resources to compensate for other FES provisions or institutions to provide backup and security to forest owners and managers for engaging in innovation development. Given that the provision of a wide range of FES is a politically well-established objective for forest management in Europe, a strategy is needed that helps to align actors and sectors for supporting and co-financing related forest management approaches and business models. The current revision of the forest related policy framework on EU level under the EU Green deal poses a window of opportunity for better fostering novel governance approaches for more sustainable FES provision.

Impact evaluation of a payments for ecosystem services program on vegetation quantity and quality restoration in Inner Mongolia

Globally, the payments for ecosystem services (PES) program has become a helpful tool that serves the purpose of mitigating ecosystem degradation and protecting ecosystem services. However, the ecological effects of existing PES programs based on counterfactual baselines, quantification and sophisticated statistical analyses are still poorly understood. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, this study evaluated the ecological effectiveness of the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) using the matching approach. The findings are as follows. First, 49.8% and 41.5% of the townships had significant gains in vegetation quantity and quality between 2000 and 2015, respectively; while 9.5% and 13.7% of the townships had significant losses in vegetation quantity and quality, respectively. Second, for forest quantity recovered townships, comparing to the NFCP unenrolled townships, the enrolled townships had increased forest quantity by additional 0.377 million ha (5.2%) from 2000 to 2015. Third, for forest quality recovered townships, the enrolled townships on average additionally increased forest quality by 465.513 Gg carbon (3.6%) from 2000 to 2015. Our study helps to promote sophisticated impact evaluation of conservation policies, which would improve the understanding and management of conservation practices in China and abroad.

Evaluating the benefits and risks of social media for wildlife conservation

Given its extensive volume and reach, social media has the potential to widely spread conservation messaging and be a powerful tool to mobilize social change for conserving biodiversity. We synthesized gray and primary academic literature to investigate the effects of social media on wildlife conservation, revealing several overarching benefits and risks. We found that social media can increase pro-conservation behaviours among the public, increase conservation funding, and incite policy changes. Conversely, social media can contribute to species exploitation and illegal trade, cause unprecedented increases in tourism in protected areas, and perpetuate anti-conservation behaviours via misinformation. In most cases, we found that content sharing on social media did not result in a detectable impact on conservation; in this paper, however, we focus on providing examples where conservation impact was achieved. We relate these positive and negative outcomes of social media to psychological phenomena that may influence conservation efforts and discuss limitations of our findings. We conclude with recommendations of best practices to social media administrators, public social media users, nongovernmental organizations, and governing agencies to minimize conservation risks while maximizing beneficial outcomes. By improving messaging, policing online misconduct, and providing guidance for action, social media can help achieve wildlife conservation goals.

The state of capacity development evaluation in biodiversity conservation and natural resource management

Capacity development is critical to long-term conservation success, yet we lack a robust and rigorous understanding of how well its effects are being evaluated. A comprehensive summary of who is monitoring and evaluating capacity development interventions, what is being evaluated and how, would help in the development of evidence-based guidance to inform design and implementation decisions for future capacity development interventions and evaluations of their effectiveness. We built an evidence map by reviewing peer-reviewed and grey literature published since 2000, to identify case studies evaluating capacity development interventions in biodiversity conservation and natural resource management. We used inductive and deductive approaches to develop a coding strategy for studies that met our criteria, extracting data on the type of capacity development intervention, evaluation methods, data and analysis types, categories of outputs and outcomes assessed, and whether the study had a clear causal model and/or used a systems approach. We found that almost all studies assessed multiple outcome types: most frequent was change in knowledge, followed by behaviour, then attitude. Few studies evaluated conservation outcomes. Less than half included an explicit causal model linking interventions to expected outcomes. Half of the studies considered external factors that could influence the efficacy of the capacity development intervention, and few used an explicit systems approach. We used framework synthesis to situate our evidence map within the broader literature on capacity development evaluation. Our evidence map (including a visual heat map) highlights areas of low and high representation in investment in research on the evaluation of capacity development.

Effectiveness of community-based livestock protection strategies: a case study of human–lion conflict mitigation

Conservation scientists are increasingly recognizing the need to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to improve human–wildlife coexistence across different contexts. Here we assessed the long-term efficacy of the Long Shields Community Guardians programme in Zimbabwe. This community-based programme seeks to protect livestock and prevent depredation by lions Panthera leo through non-lethal means, with the ultimate aim of promoting human–lion coexistence. Using a quasi-experimental approach, we measured temporal trends in livestock depredation by lions and the prevalence of retaliatory killing of lions by farmers and wildlife managers. Farmers that were part of the Long Shields programme experienced a significant reduction in livestock loss to lions, and the annual number of lions subject to retaliatory killing by farmers dropped by 41% since the start of the programme in 2013, compared to 2008–2012, before the programme was initiated. Our findings demonstrate the Long Shields programme can be a potential model for limiting livestock depredation by lions. More broadly, our study demonstrates the effectiveness of community-based interventions to engage community members, improve livestock protection and ameliorate levels of retaliatory killing, thereby reducing human–lion conflict.

Dealing With Deadstock: A Case Study of Carnivore Conflict Mitigation From Southwestern Alberta

Livestock deaths are an unfortunate reality for livestock producers and dead livestock (i.e., deadstock) disposal options can have implications beyond the ranch itself. In Alberta, Canada, natural disposal (i.e., disposing of the carcass in a manner that allows for scavenging) has increased since the 2003 detection of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canadian cattle. Prior to BSE, rendering companies removed deadstock for free. However, rendering companies started charging producers to remove deadstock to offset costs associated with new regulatory requirements enacted by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, which has resulted in increased on-farm natural disposal of deadstock. This increase has ecological implications because deadstock are a major attractant for large carnivores. Carnivores feeding on deadstock are often near other agricultural attractants such as stored grain and feed, silage, and living livestock, which can exacerbate conflict potential and pose a risk to human safety. To help mitigate conflicts associated with deadstock, the Waterton Biosphere Reserve's (a local non-profit) Carnivores and Communities Program (CACP) supported expansion of community deadstock removal efforts beginning in 2009, including reimbursement of on-farm removal costs, bear-resistant deadstock bins, and a livestock compost facility (operational 2013–2014). Here, we present an evaluative case study describing the development, implementation, and results of the deadstock removal program, including the compost facility. We tracked the number of head of livestock removed each year, the number of participating landowners, the average cost per head, and total program costs. We also used an online survey to assess participants' perspectives of the deadstock removal program and future needs. To date, the CACP has removed >5,400 livestock carcasses, representing between 15.1 and 22.6% of available carcasses in the program area, and 67.3% of livestock owners indicated they currently use the deadstock removal program to dispose of deadstock. Average cost to compost an animal was significantly less than other removal methods ($36.89 composting vs. $79.59 non-composting, one-tailed t-test, unequal sampling variances: t = 4.08, df = 5.87, p = 0.003). We conclude by discussing both ecological and social implications for deadstock removal as a conflict mitigation measure and make suggestions for future management considerations.

Testing a global standard for quantifying species recovery and assessing conservation impact

Recognizing the imperative to evaluate species recovery and conservation impact, in 2012 the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) called for development of a "Green List of Species" (now the IUCN Green Status of Species). A draft Green Status framework for assessing species' progress toward recovery, published in 2018, proposed 2 separate but interlinked components: a standardized method (i.e., measurement against benchmarks of species' viability, functionality, and preimpact distribution) to determine current species recovery status (herein species recovery score) and application of that method to estimate past and potential future impacts of conservation based on 4 metrics (conservation legacy, conservation dependence, conservation gain, and recovery potential). We tested the framework with 181 species representing diverse taxa, life histories, biomes, and IUCN Red List categories (extinction risk). Based on the observed distribution of species' recovery scores, we propose the following species recovery categories: fully recovered, slightly depleted, moderately depleted, largely depleted, critically depleted, extinct in the wild, and indeterminate. Fifty-nine percent of tested species were considered largely or critically depleted. Although there was a negative relationship between extinction risk and species recovery score, variation was considerable. Some species in lower risk categories were assessed as farther from recovery than those at higher risk. This emphasizes that species recovery is conceptually different from extinction risk and reinforces the utility of the IUCN Green Status of Species to more fully understand species conservation status. Although extinction risk did not predict conservation legacy, conservation dependence, or conservation gain, it was positively correlated with recovery potential. Only 1.7% of tested species were categorized as zero across all 4 of these conservation impact metrics, indicating that conservation has, or will, play a role in improving or maintaining species status for the vast majority of these species. Based on our results, we devised an updated assessment framework that introduces the option of using a dynamic baseline to assess future impacts of conservation over the short term to avoid misleading results which were generated in a small number of cases, and redefines short term as 10 years to better align with conservation planning. These changes are reflected in the IUCN Green Status of Species Standard.

Assessing Ecological Vulnerability under Climate Change and Anthropogenic Influence in the Yangtze River Estuarine Island-Chongming Island, China

Understanding and assessing ecological vulnerability for estuarine islands are important for maintaining estuarine island ecosystem services and its sustainable development. However, due to its complex fresh water-sea-land interaction mechanism and multiple stressors from both climate change and anthropogenic influence, a comprehensive evaluation of ecological vulnerability for estuarine islands has been limited. Therefore, taking the typical estuary island of Chongming Island as an example, we developed a comprehensive evaluation system of ecological vulnerability for an estuarine island ecosystem based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) conceptual model, and explored the spatial and temporal distribution of ecological vulnerability in 2005 and 2015. The results indicated that the main pressures of Chongming Island from saltwater intrusion intensity and land use intensity were mainly distributed in northern coastal areas and eastern areas of wetland; the ecological vulnerability index (EV) of Chongming Island showed a slight decrease from 2005 to 2015; and three categories of towns based on ecological vulnerability assessment for an eco-island planning and environmental management were identified. Our study provides an effective evaluation system of ecological vulnerability for estuarine islands, which could be helpful for planners and decision makers in improving eco-island planning and environmental management.

A counterfactual approach to measure the impact of wet grassland conservation on U.K. breeding bird populations

Wet grassland populations of wading birds in the United Kingdom have declined severely since 1990. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact of these reserves on bird population trends has not been evaluated experimentally due to a lack of control populations. We compared population trends from 1994 to 2018 among 5 bird species of conservation concern that breed on these nature reserves with counterfactual trends created from matched breeding bird survey observations. We compared reserve trends with 3 different counterfactuals based on different scenarios of how reserve populations could have developed in the absence of conservation. Effects of conservation interventions were positive for all 4 targeted wading bird species: Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Redshank (Tringa totanus), Curlew (Numenius arquata), and Snipe (Gallinago gallinago). There was no positive effect of conservation interventions on reserves for the passerine, Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava). Our approach using monitoring data to produce valid counterfactual controls is a broadly applicable method allowing large-scale evaluation of conservation impact.

Effects of stewardship on protected area effectiveness for coastal birds

Evaluation of protected area effectiveness is critical for conservation of biodiversity. Protected areas that prioritize biodiversity conservation are, optimally, located and managed in ways that support relatively large and stable or increasing wildlife populations. Yet evaluating conservation efficacy remains a challenging endeavor. We used an extensive community science data set, eBird, to evaluate the efficacy of protected areas for birds across the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the United States. We modeled trends (2007-2018) for 12 vulnerable waterbirds that use coastal areas during breeding or wintering. We compared two types of protected areas-sites where conservation organizations implemented active stewardship or management or both to reduce human disturbance (hereafter stewardship sites) and local, state, federal, and private protected areas managed to maintain natural land cover (hereafter protected areas)-as well as unprotected areas. We evaluated differences in trends between stewardship, protected, and unprotected areas across the Gulf and Atlantic coasts as a whole. Similar to a background sample, stewardship was known to occur at stewardship sites, but unknown at protected and unprotected areas. Four of 12 target species-Black Skimmer (Rynchops niger), Brown Pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis), Least Tern (Sternula antillarum), and Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus)-had more positive trends (two to 34 times greater) at stewardship sites than protected areas. Furthermore, five target species showed more positive trends at sites with stewardship programs than unprotected sites during at least one season, whereas seven species showed more positive trends at protected than unprotected areas. No species had more negative trends at stewardship sites than unprotected areas, and two species had more negative trends at protected than unprotected areas. Anthropogenic disturbance is a serious threat to coastal birds, and our findings demonstrate that stewardship to reduce its negative impacts helps ensure conservation of vulnerable waterbirds.

Supporting Actionable Science for Environmental Policy: Advice for Funding Agencies From Decision Makers

Successful incorporation of scientific knowledge into environmental policy and decisions is a significant challenge. Although studies on how to bridge the knowledge-action gap have proliferated over the last decade, few have investigated the roles, responsibilities, and opportunities for funding bodies to meet this challenge. In this study we present a set of criteria gleaned from interviews with experts across Canada that can be used by funding bodies to evaluate the potential for proposed research to produce actionable knowledge for environmental policy and practice. We also provide recommendations for how funding bodies can design funding calls and foster the skills required to bridge the knowledge-action gap. We interviewed 84 individuals with extensive experience as knowledge users at the science-policy interface who work for environmentally-focused federal and provincial/territorial government bodies and non-governmental organizations. Respondents were asked to describe elements of research proposals that indicate that the resulting research is likely to be useful in a policy context, and what advice they would give to funding bodies to increase the potential impact of sponsored research. Twenty-five individuals also completed a closed-ended survey that followed up on these questions. Research proposals that demonstrated (1) a team with diverse expertise and experience in co-production, (2) a flexible research plan that aligns timelines and spatial scale with policy needs, (3) a clear and demonstrable link to a policy issue, and (4) a detailed and diverse knowledge exchange plan for reaching relevant stakeholders were seen as more promising for producing actionable knowledge. Suggested changes to funding models to enhance utility of funded research included (1) using diverse expertise to adjudicate awards, (2) supporting co-production and interdisciplinary research through longer grant durations and integrated reward structures, and (3) following-up on and rewarding knowledge exchange by conducting impact evaluation. The set of recommendations presented here can guide both funding agencies and research teams who wish to change how applied environmental science is conducted and improve its connection to policy and practice.

The mismeasure of conservation

One of the basic purposes of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation interventions is to achieve conservation impact, the sum of avoided biodiversity loss and promoted recovery relative to outcomes without protection. In the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity's negotiations on the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, we find that targets for area-based interventions are framed overwhelmingly with measures that fail to inform decision-makers about impact and that risk diverting limited resources away from achieving it. We show that predicting impact in space and time is feasible and can provide the basis for global guidance for jurisdictions to develop targets for conservation impact and shift investment priorities to areas where impact can be most effectively achieved.

Citizen monitoring promotes informed and inclusive forest governance in Liberia

Global forest loss depends on decisions made in the rural, often poor communities living beside the Earth's remaining forests. Governance problems in these forest-edge communities contribute to rapid deforestation and household vulnerability. In coordination with experimental studies in 5 other countries, we evaluate a program that recruits, trains, and deploys citizens to monitor communal forestland in 60 communities in rural Liberia. The year-long intervention is designed to promote more informed and inclusive resource governance, so that that citizens' preferences (and not just leaders' interests) are reflected in forest management. In our control communities, households are uninformed and disengaged; leaders' authority is unchecked. The program both engages and mobilizes community members: households are better informed and participate more in the design and enforcement of rules around forest use. They also report receiving more material benefits from outside investors' activities in their community forests. The chiefs who lead these communities attest to strengthened accountability. Using both on-the-ground environmental assessments and remotely sensed data, we find no effects on forest use or deforestation. Households do not favor more conservation, and, thus, more inclusive management does not reduce forest use. Conservation likely requires compensating community members for foregoing forest use; citizen monitoring, we argue, could ensure that such schemes enjoy popular support and do not just benefit local elites.

Additionality and Leakage Resulting from PES Implementation? Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazonia

Payments for Environmental Services (PES) are instruments which seem well suited for forest conservation. However, their impact on reducing deforestation might be weakened by negligible additionality and leakage effects; the first refers to the low variation in net deforestation rates even in the absence of PES, and the second refers to the displaced deforestation behavior to other areas not covered by PES. For the case of Ecuador, we examine both issues by assessing the historical deforestation trend of selected PES-enrolled areas and that of their adjacent areas to identify deforestation patterns before and after PES implementation. We analyze the additional effect of PES on reducing deforestation by comparison to a baseline as well as to comparable reference sites at two different spatial scales. We also analyze potential leakage effects of PES by comparing deforestation development in adjacent areas. We show that PES has achieved marginally low conservation impacts in enrolled areas with an average difference in net deforestation rates of 0.02 percent points over a period of 28 years. Overall, PES-enrolled areas depict lower annual net deforestation rates than unenrolled areas, albeit at a negligible rate, and there is also some evidence that deforestation decreased in adjacent areas after PES implementation. Additionally, there exists a statistically significant linear increasing deforestation trend in adjacent areas as distance increases from the PES-enrolled area. Our empirical results, however, raise the suspicion that the choice of PES-enrolled areas might have been influenced by self-selection.

Conservation outreach that acknowledges human contributions to climate change does not inhibit action by U.S. farmers: Evidence from a large randomized controlled trial embedded in a federal program on soil health

Technologies and practices that reduce the environmental impacts of US agriculture are well documented. Less is known about how best to encourage their adoption. We report on the results of a large randomized controlled trial conducted with nearly 10,000 agricultural producers in the United States. The experiment was embedded in US Department of Agriculture outreach efforts to improve soil conservation practices. USDA varied the content of mailings to test two sets of competing theories about outreach to agricultural producers. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find no evidence that acknowledging the link between climate change and agricultural production discourages conservation action. Furthermore, we find that producers who were invited to a webinar were less likely to take any action to learn more about conservation practices than producers who were not told about the webinar, a result that runs counter to the popular wisdom that offering more options leads to more action.

Range-wide assessment of the impact of China's nature reserves on giant panda habitat quality

Protected areas (PAs) form the backbone of global conservation efforts. Although many studies have evaluated the impact of PAs on land cover, human disturbances, and people's welfare, PAs' impact on wildlife habitat quality remains poorly understood. By integrating wildlife habitat mapping and information of 2183 rural households, we assessed the impacts of nature reserves (a type of PAs) across the entire geographic range of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) on panda habitat suitability change between 2001 and 2013 using the matching approach. We found the impact of nature reserves is concentrated in areas susceptible to human pressure, where 65% of the habitat suitability increase is attributable to the nature reserves' protection. The impact of nature reserves has spilled over to nearby unprotected areas and enhanced habitat suitability there. Nature reserves supported by the central government showed higher performance in improving habitat suitability than their counterparts supported by local governments. Older nature reserves perform better than those established more recently. Our results also show that local households' participation in tourism and labor migration (people temporarily leaving to work in cities) enhanced the ability of nature reserves to improve habitat suitability. These results and methods provide valuable information and tools to support effective management of PAs to enhance the habitat quality of giant pandas and other wildlife species in China and elsewhere.

Reconciling multiple counterfactuals when evaluating biodiversity conservation impact in social-ecological systems

When evaluating the impact of a biodiversity conservation intervention, a counterfactual is typically needed. Counterfactuals are possible alternative system trajectories in the absence of an intervention. Comparing observed outcomes against the chosen counterfactual allows the impact (change attributable to the intervention) to be determined. Because counterfactuals by definition never occur, they must be estimated. Sometimes, there may be many plausible counterfactuals, including various drivers of biodiversity change and defined on a range of spatial or temporal scales. Here, we posit that, by definition, conservation interventions always take place in social-ecological systems (SES) (i.e., ecological systems integrated with human actors). Evaluating the impact of an intervention in an SES, therefore, means taking into account the counterfactuals assumed by different human actors. Use of different counterfactuals by different actors will give rise to perceived differences in the impacts of interventions, which may lead to disagreement about its success or the effectiveness of the underlying approach. Despite that there are biophysical biodiversity trends, it is often true that no single counterfactual is definitively the right one for conservation assessment, so multiple evaluations of intervention efficacy could be considered justifiable. Therefore, we propose calculating the sum of perceived differences, which captures the range of impact estimates associated with different actors in a given SES. The sum of perceived differences gives some indication of how closely actors in an SES agree on the impacts of an intervention. We applied the concept of perceived differences to a set of global, national, and regional case studies (e.g., global realization of Aichi Target 11 for marine protected areas, effect of biodiversity offsetting on vegetation condition in Australia, and influence of conservation measures on an endangered ungulate in Central Asia). We explored approaches for minimizing the sum, including a combination of negotiation and structured decision making, careful alignment of expectations on scope and measurement, and explicit recognition of any intractable differences between stakeholders.

De-colonizing conservation in a global world

Humans form an integral part of most ecosystems on earth. To prevent habitat and species loss and destruction, social justice must, therefore, be at the core of conservation efforts. Traditional conservation education approaches focus on building knowledge, skills, and awareness amongst local communities with the hope of leading to behavior change resulting in the protection of species and ecosystems. The principal drivers of threats to these ecosystems, however, are often not the local people but rather the interests of industry, governments and consumers in distant places. To mitigate and abate the threats to ecosystems, conservation approaches must be both localized and decolonized, including on all the relevant stakeholders. This starts by ensuring that industry, government, and financing institutions have the skills and incentives to avoid harm to the people, wildlife, and ecosystems they exploit, and ensuring that local and indigenous communities are not only informed, but much more engaged in leading the activities that affect them or their land/resources. Essentially, it is the behavior of the global community that must change with respect to the consumption, utilization, and extraction of tropical forest resources and conservation targets must reflect this. Conservation can only be successful when the threats to ecosystems are adequately understood and local people are part of the design and leadership of conservation efforts. This commentary provides specific examples of how conservation education can focus on the drivers of threats, building expertize in the relevant audiences and partners.

Conservation education aims to build knowledge, skills, and awareness of local communities, based on the premise that increasing knowledge and skills would lead to a reduction in threats to conservation targets.

The main threats to conservation targets are from industrial pressures emanating from distant sources.

Conservation efforts must, therefore, focus on empowering local communities as well as abating and mitigating threats.

Evaluating a large-scale online behaviour change intervention aimed at wildlife product consumers in Singapore

Interventions to shift the behaviour of consumers using unsustainable wildlife products are key to threatened species conservation. Whether these interventions are effective is largely unknown due to a dearth of detailed evaluations. We previously conducted a country-level online behaviour change intervention targeting consumers of the Critically Endangered saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica) horn in Singapore. To evaluate intervention impact, we carried out in-person consumer surveys with >2,000 individuals pre- and post-intervention (2017 and 2019), and 93 in-person post-intervention surveys with traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) shopkeepers (2019). The proportion of self-reported high-usage saiga horn consumers in the target audience (Chinese Singaporean women aged 35-59) did not change significantly from pre- to post-intervention (24.4% versus 22.6%). However, post-intervention the target audience was significantly more likely than the non-target audience to accurately recall the intervention message and to report a decrease in saiga horn usage (4% versus 1% reported a behaviour change). Within the target audience, high-usage consumers were significantly more likely than lower-usage consumers to recall the message and report a behaviour change. Across respondents who reported a decrease in saiga horn usage, they cited the intervention message as a specific reason for their behaviour change significantly more than other reasons. Additionally, across all respondents, the belief that saiga is a common species in the wild decreased significantly from pre- to post-intervention. TCM shopkeepers, however, cited factors such as price and availability as the strongest influences on saiga horn sales. In sum, the intervention did significantly influence some consumers but the reduction of high-usage consumer frequency was not significant at the population level. We explore reasons for these findings, including competing consumer influences, characteristics of the intervention, and evaluation timing. This work suggests our intervention approach has potential, and exemplifies a multi-pronged in-person evaluation of an online wildlife trade consumer intervention.

Estimating counterfactuals for evaluation of ecological and conservation impact: an introduction to matching methods

Matching methods encompass non-parametric approaches to estimating counterfactual states through a rigorous selection of control units with similar characteristics to units submitted to an intervention. These methods enable comparisons between treated and control units in a way that facilitates understanding of causal relationships between interventions and outcomes. Matching methods have been used only recently in ecology and conservation biology, where such applications changed the way the field investigates causal questions, for example, in impact-evaluation studies. However, the strengths and limitations of matching methods are not well understood by most ecologists and environmental scientists. Herein, we review state-of-the-art matching methods aiming to help fill this gap in understanding. First, we present relevant theoretical concepts related to matching methods and related subjects such as counterfactual states and causation. Next, we propose guidelines and strategies for the application of matching methods in ecology and conservation biology. Finally, we discuss the possibilities for future applications of matching methods in the environmental sciences.

Evaluating Impact Using Time-Series Data

Humanity's impact on the environment is increasing, as are strategies to conserve biodiversity, but a lack of understanding about how interventions affect ecological and conservation outcomes hampers decision-making. Time series are often used to assess impacts, but ecologists tend to compare average values from before to after an impact; overlooking the potential for the intervention to elicit a change in trend. Without methods that allow for a range of responses, erroneous conclusions can be drawn, especially for large, multi-time-series datasets, which are increasingly available. Drawing on literature in other disciplines and pioneering work in ecology, we present a standardised framework to robustly assesses how interventions, like natural disasters or conservation policies, affect ecological time series.