The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States

Disturbance sensitivity shapes patterns of tree species distribution in Afrotropical lowland rainforests more than climate or soil

Understanding how tropical forests respond to abiotic environmental changes is critical for preserving biodiversity, mitigating climate change, and maintaining ecosystem services in the coming century. To evaluate the relative roles of the abiotic environment and human disturbance on Central African tree community composition, we employ tree inventory data, remotely sensed climatic data, and soil nutrient data collected from 30 1-ha plots distributed across a large-scale observational experiment in forests that had been differently impacted by logging and hunting in northern Republic of Congo. We show that the composition of Afrotropical plant communities at this scale responds to human disturbance more than to climate, with particular sensitivities to hunting and distance to the nearest village (a proxy for other human activities, including tree-cutting and gathering). These findings contrast neotropical predictions, highlighting the unique ecological, evolutionary, and anthropogenic history of Afrotropical forests.

A COMPASS histone H3K4 trimethyltransferase pentamer transactivates drought tolerance and growth/biomass production in Populus trichocarpa

Histone H3 lysine-4 trimethylation (H3K4me3) activating drought-responsive genes in plants for drought adaptation has long been established, but the underlying regulatory mechanisms are unknown. Here, using yeast two-hybrid, bimolecular fluorescence complementation, biochemical analyses, transient and CRISPR-mediated transgenesis in Populus trichocarpa, we unveiled in this adaptation a regulatory interplay between chromatin regulation and gene transactivation mediated by an epigenetic determinant, a PtrSDG2-1-PtrCOMPASS (complex proteins associated with Set1)-like H3K4me3 complex, PtrSDG2-1-PtrWDR5a-1-PtrRbBP5-1-PtrAsh2-2 (PtrSWRA). Under drought conditions, a transcription factor PtrAREB1-2 interacts with PtrSWRA, forming a PtrSWRA-PtrAREB1-2 pentamer, to recruit PtrSWRA to specific promoter elements of drought-tolerant genes, such as PtrHox2, PtrHox46, and PtrHox52, for depositing H3K4me3 to promote and maintain activated state of such genes for tolerance. CRISPR-edited defects in the pentamer impaired drought tolerance and elevated expression of PtrHox2, PtrHox46, or PtrHox52 improved the tolerance as well as growth in P. trichocarpa. Our findings revealed the identity of the underlying H3K4 trimethyltransferase and its interactive arrangement with the COMPASS for catalysis specificity and efficiency. Furthermore, our study uncovered how the H3K4 trimethyltransferase-COMPASS complex is recruited to the effector genes for elevating H3K4me3 marks for improved drought tolerance and growth/biomass production in plants.

Weak local adaptation to drought in seedlings of a widespread conifer

Tree seedlings from populations native to drier regions are often assumed to be more drought tolerant than those from wetter provenances. However, intraspecific variation in drought tolerance has not been well-characterized despite being critical for developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, and for predicting the effects of drought on forests. We used a large-scale common garden drought-to-death experiment to assess range-wide variation in drought tolerance, measured by decline of photosynthetic efficiency, growth, and plastic responses to extreme summer drought in seedlings of 73 natural populations of the two main varieties of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii and var. glauca). Local adaptation to drought was weak in var. glauca and nearly absent in menziesii. Var. glauca showed higher tolerance to drought but slower growth than var. menziesii. Clinal variation in drought tolerance and growth species-wide was mainly associated with temperature rather than precipitation. A higher degree of plasticity for growth was observed in var. menziesii in response to extreme drought. Genetic variation for drought tolerance in seedlings within varieties is maintained primarily within populations. Selective breeding within populations may facilitate adaptation to drought more than assisted gene flow.

Climate-limited vegetation change in the conterminous United States of America

The effects of climate change on vegetation composition and distribution are evident in different ecosystems around the world. Although some climate-derived alterations on vegetation are expected to result in changes in lifeform fractional cover, disentangling the direct effects of climate change from different non-climate factors, such as land-use change, is challenging. By applying "Liebig's law of the minimum" in a geospatial context, we determined the climate-limited potential for tree, shrub, herbaceous, and non-vegetation fractional cover change for the conterminous United States and compared these potential rates to observed change rates for the period 1986 to 2018. We found that 10% of the land area of the conterminous United States appears to have climate limitations on the change in fractional cover, with a high proportion of these sites located in arid and semiarid ecosystems in the Southwest part of the country. The rates of change in lifeform fractional cover for the remaining area of the country are likely limited by non-climate factors such as the disturbance regime, land management, land-use history, soil conditions, and species interactions and adaptations.

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

Vegetation browning: global drivers, impacts, and feedbacks

As global climate conditions continue to change, disturbance regimes and environmental drivers will continue to shift, impacting global vegetation dynamics. Following a period of vegetation greening, there has been a progressive increase in remotely sensed vegetation browning globally. Given the many societal benefits that forests provide, it is critical that we understand vegetation dynamic alterations. Here, we review associative drivers, impacts, and feedbacks, revealing the complexity of browning. Concomitant increases in browning include the weakening of ecosystem services and functions and alterations to vegetation structure and species composition, as well as the development of potential positive climate change feedbacks. Also discussed are the current challenges in browning detection and understanding associated impacts and feedbacks. Finally, we outline recommended strategies.

Effects of drought, disturbance, and biotic neighborhood on experimental tree seedling performance

Forest biodiversity is likely maintained by a complex suite of interacting drivers that vary in importance across both space and time. Contributing factors include disturbance, interannual variation in abiotic variables, and biotic neighborhood effects. To probe ongoing uncertainties and potential interactions, we investigated tree seedling performance in a temperate mid-Atlantic forest ecosystem. We planted seedlings of five native tree species in mapped study plots, half of which were subjected to disturbance, and then monitored seedling survival, height growth, and foliar condition. The final year of data collection encompassed a drought, enabling comparison between intervals varying in water availability. Seedling performance was analyzed as a function of canopy cover and biotic neighborhood (conspecific and heterospecific abundance), including interactions, with separate generalized linear mixed models fit for each interval. All species exhibited: (a) pronounced declines in height growth during the drought year, (b) detrimental effects of adult conspecifics, and (c) beneficial effects of canopy openness. However, despite these consistencies, there was considerable variation across species in terms of the relevant predictors for each response variable in each interval. Our results suggest that drought may strengthen or reveal conspecific inhibition in some instances while weakening it or obscuring it in others, and that some forms of conspecific inhibition may manifest only under particular canopy conditions (although given the inconsistency of our findings, we are not convinced that conspecific inhibition is critical for diversity maintenance in our study system). Overall, our work reveals a complex forest ecosystem that appears simultaneously and interactively governed by biotic neighborhood structure (e.g., conspecific and/or heterospecific abundance), local habitat conditions (e.g., canopy cover), and interannual variability (e.g., drought).

Climate change-related growth improvements in a wide niche-breadth tree species across contrasting environments

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The vulnerability and responsiveness of forests to drought are immensely variable across biomes. Intraspecific tree responses to drought in species with wide niche breadths that grow across contrasting climatically environments might provide key information regarding forest resistance and changes in species distribution under climate change. Using a species with an exceptionally wide niche breath, we tested the hypothesis that tree populations thriving in dry environments are more resistant to drought than those growing in moist locations.

METHODS

We determined temporal trends in tree radial growth of 12 tree populations of Nothofagus antarctica (Nothofagaceae) located across a sharp precipitation gradient (annual precipitation of 500-2000 mm) in Chile and Argentina. Using dendrochronological methods, we fitted generalized additive mixed-effect models to predict the annual basal area increment as a function of year and dryness (De Martonne aridity index). We also measured carbon and oxygen isotope signals (and estimated intrinsic water-use efficiency) to provide potential physiological causes for tree growth responses to drought.

KEY RESULTS

We found unexpected improvements in growth during 1980-1998 in moist sites, while growth responses in dry sites were mixed. All populations, independent of site moisture, showed an increase in their intrinsic water-use efficiency in recent decades, a tendency that seemed to be explained by an increase in the photosynthetic rate instead of drought-induced stomatal closure, given that δ18O did not change with time.

CONCLUSIONS

The absence of drought-induced negative effects on tree growth in a tree species with a wide niche breadth is promising because it might relate to the causal mechanisms tree species possess to face ongoing drought events. We suggest that the drought resistance of N. antarctica might be attributable to its low stature and relatively low growth rate.

Climate and fragment area jointly affect the annual dynamics of seedlings in different functional groups in the Thousand Island Lake

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are the two main threats to global biodiversity. Understanding their combined impact on plant community regeneration is vital for predicting future forest structure and conserving biodiversity. This study monitored the seed production, seedling recruitment and mortality of woody plants in the Thousand Island Lake, a highly fragmented anthropogenic archipelago, for 5 years. We analyzed the seed-seedling transition, seedling recruitment and mortality of different functional groups in the fragmented forests and conducted correlation analyses involving climatic factors, island area, and plant community abundance. Our results showed that: 1) shade-tolerant and evergreen species had higher seed-seedling transition, seedling recruitment and survival rate than shade-intolerant and deciduous species in time and space, and these advantages increased with the island area. 2) Seedlings in different functional groups responded differently to island area, temperature and precipitation. 3) Increasing active accumulated temperature (the sum of the mean daily temperature above 0 °C) significantly increased seedling recruitment and survival, and warming climate favored the regeneration of evergreen species. 4) The seedling mortality rate of all plant functional groups increased with the increase of island area, but the increasing strength weakened significantly with the increase of the annual maximum temperature. These results suggested that the dynamics of woody plant seedlings varied among functional groups, and can be regulated separately and jointly by fragmentation and climate.

Effectiveness of forest density reduction treatments for increasing drought resistance of ponderosa pine growth

As the climate changes, it is increasingly important to understand how forests will respond to drought and how forest management can influence those outcomes. In many forests that have become unnaturally dense, "restoration treatments," which decrease stand density using fire and/or mechanical thinning, are generally associated with reduced mortality during drought. However, the effects of such treatments on tree growth during drought are less clear. Previous studies have yielded apparently contradictory results, which may stem from differences in underlying aridity or drought intensity across studies. To address this uncertainty, we studied the growth of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) in paired treated and untreated areas before and during the extreme California drought of 2012-2016. Our study spanned gradients in climate and tree size and found that density reduction treatments could completely ameliorate drought-driven declines in growth under some contexts, specifically in more mesic areas and in medium-sized trees (i.e., normal annual precipitation > ca. 1100 mm and tree diameter at breast height < ca. 65 cm). Treatments were much less effective in ameliorating drought-associated growth declines in the most water-limited sites and largest trees, consistent with underlying ecophysiology. In medium-sized trees and wetter sites, growth of trees in untreated stands decreased by more than 15% during drought, while treatment-associated increases in growth of 25% or more persisted during the drought. Trees that ultimately died due to drought showed greater growth reductions during drought relative to trees that survived. Our results suggest that density reduction treatments can increase tree resistance to water stress, and they highlight an important pathway for treatments to influence carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services beyond mitigating tree mortality.

Nutrient regime modulates drought response patterns of three temperate tree species

Against the backdrop of global change, the intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts are projected to increase and threaten forest ecosystems worldwide. Tree responses to drought are complex and likely to vary among species, drought characteristics, and site conditions. Here, we examined the drought response patterns of three major temperate tree species, s. fir (Abies alba), E. beech (Fagus sylvatica), and N. spruce (Picea abies), along an ecological gradient in the South - Central - East part of Germany that included a total of 37 sites with varying climatic and soil conditions. We relied on annual tree-ring data to assess the influence of different drought characteristics and (micro-) site conditions on components of tree resilience and to detect associated temporal changes. Our study revealed that nutrient regime, drought frequency, and hydraulic conditions in the previous and subsequent years were the main determinants of drought responses, with pronounced differences among species. Specifically, we found that (a) higher drought frequency was associated with higher resistance and resilience for N. spruce and E. beech; (b) more favorable climatic conditions in the two preceding and following years increased drought resilience and determined recovery potential of E. beech after extreme drought; (c) a site's nutrient regime, rather than micro-site differences in water availability, determined drought responses, with trees growing on sites with a balanced nutrient regime having a higher capacity to withstand extreme drought stress; (d) E. beech and N. spruce experienced a long-term decline in resilience. Our results indicate that trees under extreme drought stress benefit from a balanced nutrient supply and highlight the relevance of water availability immediately after droughts. Observed long-term trends confirm that N. spruce is suffering from persistent climatic changes, while s. fir is coping better. These findings might be especially relevant for monitoring, scenario analyses, and forest ecosystem management.

Effects of moisture and density-dependent interactions on tropical tree diversity

Tropical tree diversity increases with rainfall1,2. Direct physiological effects of moisture availability and indirect effects mediated by biotic interactions are hypothesized to contribute to this pantropical increase in diversity with rainfall2-6. Previous studies have demonstrated direct physiological effects of variation in moisture availability on tree survival and diversity5,7-10, but the indirect effects of variation in moisture availability on diversity mediated by biotic interactions have not been shown11. Here we evaluate the relationships between interannual variation in moisture availability, the strength of density-dependent interactions, and seedling diversity in central Panama. Diversity increased with soil moisture over the first year of life across 20 annual cohorts. These first-year changes in diversity persisted for at least 15 years. Differential survival of moisture-sensitive species did not contribute to the observed changes in diversity. Rather, negative density-dependent interactions among conspecifics were stronger and increased diversity in wetter years. This suggests that moisture availability enhances diversity indirectly through moisture-sensitive, density-dependent conspecific interactions. Pathogens and phytophagous insects mediate interactions among seedlings in tropical forests12-18, and many of these plant enemies are themselves moisture-sensitive19-27. Changes in moisture availability caused by climate change and habitat degradation may alter these interactions and tropical tree diversity.

Ecological-niche modeling reveals current opportunities for Agave dryland farming in Sonora, Mexico and Arizona, USA

For centuries, humans occupying arid regions of North America have maintained an intricate relationship with Agave (Agavoideae, Asparagaceae). Today Agave cultivation, primarily for beverage production, provides an economic engine for rural communities throughout Mexico. Among known dryland-farming methods, the use of rock piles and cattle-grazed areas stand out as promising approaches for Agave cultivation. Identifying new cultivation areas to apply these approaches in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico warrants a geographic assessment of areas outside the known ranges of rock piles and grasslands. The objective of this study was to predict areas for dryland-farming of Agave and develop models to identify potential areas for Agave cultivation. We used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) ecological-niche-modeling algorithms to predict suitable areas for Agave dryland farming. The model was parameterized using occurrence records of Hohokam rock piles in Arizona and grassland fields cultivated with Agave in Sonora. Ten environmental-predictor variables were used in the model, downloaded from the WorldClim 2 climate database. The model identified potential locations for using rock piles as dryland-farming methods from south-central Arizona to northwestern Sonora. The Agave-grassland model indicated that regions from central to southern Sonora have the highest potential for cultivation of Agave, particularly for the species Agave angustifolia. Results suggest that there are many suitable areas where rock piles can be used to cultivate Agave in the Sonoran Desert, particularly in the border of southeastern Arizona and northwest Sonora. Likewise, cattle-grazing grasslands provide a viable environment for cultivating Agave in southern Sonora, where the expanding bacanora-beverage industry continues to grow and where different Agave products (e.g., syrups, fructans, saponins, and medicinal compounds) can potentially strengthen local economies.

Integration of meta-analysis, machine learning and systems biology approach for investigating the transcriptomic response to drought stress in Populus species

In Populus, drought is a major problem affecting plant growth and development which can be closely reflected by corresponding transcriptomic changes. Nevertheless, how these changes in Populus are not fully understood. Here, we first used meta-analysis and machine learning methods to identify water stress-responsive genes and then performed a systematic approach to discover important gene networks. Our analysis revealed that large transcriptional variations occur during drought stress. These changes were more associated with the response to stress, cellular catabolic process, metabolic pathways, and hormone-related genes. The differential gene coexpression analysis highlighted two acetyltransferase NATA1-like and putative cytochrome P450 genes that have a special contribution in response to drought stress. In particular, the findings showed that MYBs and MAPKs have a prominent role in the drought stress response that could be considered to improve the drought tolerance of Populus. We also suggest ARF2-like and PYL4-like genes as potential markers for use in breeding programs. This study provides a better understanding of how Populus responses to drought that could be useful for improving tolerance to stress in Populus.

Integrated transcriptome and metabolome analysis reveals molecular responses of spider to single and combined high temperature and drought stress

High temperature and drought are abiotic stresses restricting many arthropods' survival and growth. Wolf spiders are poikilothermic arthropods that are vital in managing insects and pests. Nonetheless, investigating changes in spiders under temperature and drought stress are limited, especially at the molecular and gene expression levels. The study found that the combined effects of high temperature and drought stress significantly reduced survival rates and raised superoxide dismutase and malondialdehyde levels in the wolf spider Pardosa pseudoannulata. An integrated transcriptome and metabolome analysis showed that differentially expressed genes and metabolites were highly enriched in pathways involved in the proteolysis and oxidation-reduction process. The gene expression profiles displayed that heat shock protein (HSP) families (i.e., small heat shock protein, HSP70, HSP90, and HSP beta protein) were up-regulated under temperature and/or drought stresses. Additionally, a conjoint analysis revealed that under the combined stress, several important enzymes, including maltase-glucoamylase, glycerol-6-phosphate transporter, alanine-glyoxylate transaminase, and prostaglandin-H2 D-isomerase, were altered, affecting the metabolism of starch, sucrose, amino acids, and arachidonic acid. The protein interaction network further confirmed that under the combined stress, metabolic processes, peptide metabolic processes, and ATP generation from ADP were up-regulated, indicating that spiders could accelerate the metabolism of carbohydrates and proteins to combat stress and maintain homeostasis. Overall, this work showed that exposure to a combination of pressures might cause distinct defensive reactions in spiders and offered novel perspectives to research the molecular underpinnings of spider adaptation to a changing climate.

Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios

In recent decades, die-off events in Pinus sylvestris populations have increased. The causes of these phenomena, which are usually related to local and regional extreme hot droughts, have been extensively investigated from a physiological viewpoint. However, the consequences of die-off process in terms of demography and vegetation dynamics have been less thoroughly addressed. Here, we projected P. sylvestris plot dynamics after a die-off event, under climate change scenarios, considering also their early demographic stages (i.e., seedlings, saplings and ingrowth from the sapling to adult class), to assess the resilience of P. sylvestris populations after such events. We used Integral Projection Models (IPMs) to project future plot structure under current climate, and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0 climate scenarios, using climatic suitability - extracted from Species Distribution Models - as a covariable in the estimations of vital rates over time. Field data feeding IPMs were obtained from two successive surveys, at the end of the die-off event (2013) and four years later (2017), undertaken on populations situated across the P. sylvestris range of distribution in Catalonia (NE Spain). Plots affected by die-off experienced a loss of large trees, which causes that basal area, tree diameter and tree density will remain lower for decades relative to unaffected plots. After the event, this situation is partially counterbalanced in affected plots by a greater increase in basal area and seedling recruitment into tree stage, thus promoting resilience. However, resilience is delayed under the climate-change scenarios with warmer and drier conditions involving additional physiological stress, due to a reduced abundance of seedlings and a smaller plot basal area. The study shows lagged effect of drought-induced die-off events on forest structure, also revealing stabilizing mechanisms, such as recruitment and tree growth release, which enhance resilience. However, these mechanisms would be jeopardized by oncoming regional warming.

At least it is a dry cold: the global distribution of freeze-thaw and drought stress and the traits that may impart poly-tolerance in conifers

Conifers inhabit some of the most challenging landscapes where multiple abiotic stressors (e.g., aridity, freezing temperatures) often co-occur. Physiological tolerance to multiple stressors ('poly-tolerance') is thought to be rare because exposure to one stress generally limits responses to another through functional trade-offs. However, the capacity to exhibit poly-tolerance may be greater when combined abiotic stressors have similar physiological impacts, such as the disruption of hydraulic function imposed by drought or freezing. Here, we reviewed empirical data in light of theoretical expectations for conifer adaptations to drought and freeze-thaw cycles with particular attention to hydraulic traits of the stem and leaf. Additionally, we examined the commonality and spatial distribution of poly-stress along indices of these combined stressors. We found that locations with the highest values of our poly-stress index (PSi) are characterized by moderate drought and moderate freeze-thaw, and most of the global conifer distribution occupies areas of moderate poly-stress. Among traits examined, we found diverse responses to the stressors. Turgor loss point did not correlate with freeze-thaw or drought stress individually, but did with the PSi, albeit inverse to what was hypothesized. Leaf mass per area was more strongly linked with drought stress than the poly-stress and not at all with freeze-thaw stress. In stems, the water potential causing 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity became more negative with increasing drought stress and poly-stress but did not correlate with freeze-thaw stress. For these traits, we identified a striking lack of coverage for substantial portions of species ranges, particularly at the upper boundaries of their respective PSis, demonstrating a critical gap in our understanding of trait prevalence and plasticity along these stress gradients. Future research should investigate traits that confer tolerance to both freeze-thaw and drought stress in a wide range of species across broad geographic scales.

Threats, biodiversity drivers and restoration in temperate floodplain forests related to spatial scales

Floodplain forests offer a diversity of habitats and resources for a very wide range of plant and animal species. They also offer many benefits to humankind and are considered essential to the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Nevertheless, throughout the world they are suffering the most intense of anthropogenic pressures so are, of all ecosystems, among the most endangered. Here, we bring together and synthesise existing ecological understanding of the mechanisms underlying the high heterogeneity and diversity of temperate floodplain forests and of the pressures threatening their high biological value due to habitat homogenisation. Floodplain forests depend on the periodic disturbances under which they evolved, including fluvial dynamics, traditional management practices and the activities of herbivores. However, they have been heavily degraded by climate change, invasion of exotic species, river-flow regulation, landscape fragmentation, eutrophication and the cessation of traditional management. We can now observe two general trends in temperate floodplain forests: (1) Due to intensive landscape exploitation, they are now more open and thus prone to the spread of competitive species, including of invasive exotics and (2) Due to the cessation of traditional management, along with modified hydrological conditions, they are composed of species in the later successional stages (i.e., more shade-tolerant and mesic) while light-demanding species are quickly vanishing. Restoration practices have brought about contrasting results when restoration of floodplains to their natural states has been problematic. This is likely because of interplay between various natural and artificial processes not previously taken into proper consideration. We would like to draw attention to the fact that restoration projects or the preservation of existing floodplain forest ecosystems should combine the restoration of watercourses with the mitigation of other important threats acting at different scales of the landscape (spread of invasive species, eutrophication of watersheds and inappropriate forest management).

Genome-Wide Characterization and Evolutionary Expansion of Poplar NAC Transcription Factors and Their Tissue-Specific Expression Profiles under Drought

The NAC (NAM, ATAF1/2 and CUC2) is a large gene family of plant-specific transcription factors that play a pivotal role in various physiological processes and abiotic stresses. Due to the lack of genome-wide characterization, intraspecific and interspecific synteny, and drought-responsive expression pattern of NAC genes in poplar, the functional characterization of drought-related NAC genes have been scarcely reported in Populus species. Here, we identified a total of 170 NAC domain-containing genes in the P. trichocarpa genome, 169 of which were unevenly distributed on its nineteen chromosomes. These NAC genes were phylogenetically divided into twenty subgroups, some of which exhibited a similar pattern of exon-intron architecture. The synteny and Ka/Ks analysis indicated that the expansion of NAC genes in poplar was mainly due to gene duplication events occurring before and after the divergence of Populus and Salix. Ten PdNAC (P. deltoids × P. euramericana cv.'Nanlin895') genes were randomly selected and cloned. Their drought-responsive expression profiles showed a tissue-specific pattern. The transcription factor PdNAC013 was verified to be localized in the nucleus. Our research results provide genomic information for the expansion of NAC genes in the poplar genome, and for further characterizing putative poplar NAC genes associated with water-deficit.

Root water uptake depth determines the hydraulic vulnerability of temperate European tree species during the extreme 2018 drought

We took advantage of the European 2018 drought and assessed the mechanisms causing differences in drought vulnerability among mature individuals of nine co-occurring tree species at the Swiss Canopy Crane II site in Switzerland. Throughout the drought we monitored leaf water status and determined native embolism formation in the canopy of the trees as indicators of drought vulnerability. We also determined hydraulic vulnerability thresholds (Ψ₁₂ -, Ψ₅₀ - and Ψ₈₈ -values), corresponding hydraulic safety margins (HSMs) and carbohydrate reserves for all species as well as total average leaf area per tree, and used stable isotopes to assess differences in root water uptake depth among the nine species as variables predicting differences in drought vulnerability among species. Marked differences in drought vulnerability were observed among the nine tree species. Six species maintained their water potentials above hydraulic thresholds, while three species, Fagus sylvatica, Carpinus betulus and Picea abies, were pushed beyond their hydraulic thresholds and showed loss of hydraulic conductivity in their canopies at the end of the drought. Embolism resistance thresholds and associated HSMs did not explain why the co-existing species differed in their drought vulnerability, neither did their degree of isohydry, nor their regulation of carbohydrate reserves. Instead, differences in structural-morphological traits, in particular root water uptake depth, were associated with the risk of reaching hydraulic vulnerability thresholds and embolism formation among the nine species. Our study shows that structural-morphological traits, such as root water uptake depth, determine how quickly different species approach hydraulic vulnerability thresholds during a drought event and can thus explain species differences in drought vulnerability among mature field-grown trees.

The complexity of biological disturbance agents, fuels heterogeneity, and fire in coniferous forests of the western United States

Forest biological disturbance agents (BDAs) are insects, pathogens, and parasitic plants that affect tree decline, mortality, and forest ecosystems processes. BDAs are commonly thought to increase the likelihood and severity of fire by converting live standing trees to more flammable, dead and downed fuel. However, recent research indicates that BDAs do not necessarily increase, and can reduce, the likelihood or severity of fire. This has led to confusion regarding the role of BDAs in influencing fuels and fire in fire-prone western United States forests. Here, we review the existing literature on BDAs and their effects on fuels and fire in the western US and develop a conceptual framework to better understand the complex relationships between BDAs, fuels and fire. We ask: 1) What are the major BDA groups in western US forests that affect fuels? and 2) How do BDA-affected fuels influence fire risk and outcomes? The conceptual framework is rooted in the spatiotemporal aspects of BDA life histories, which drive forest impacts, fuel characteristics and if ignited, fire outcomes. Life histories vary among BDAs from episodic, landscape-scale outbreaks (bark beetles, defoliators), to chronic, localized disturbance effects (dwarf mistletoes, root rots). Generally, BDAs convert aboveground live biomass to dead biomass, decreasing canopy fuels and increasing surface fuels. However, the rate of conversion varies with time-since-event and among BDAs and forest types, resulting in a wide range of effects on the amount of dead fuels at any given time and place, which interacts with the structure and composition of the stand before and subsequent to BDA events. A major influence on fuels may be that BDAs have emerged as dominant agents of forest heterogeneity creation. Because BDAs play complex roles in fuels and fire heterogeneity across the western US which are further complicated by interactions with climate change, drought, and forest management (fire suppression), their impacts on fuels, fire and ecological consequences cannot be categorized simply as positive or negative but need to be evaluated within the context of BDA life histories and ecosystem dynamics.

European beech dieback after premature leaf senescence during the 2018 drought in northern Switzerland

During the particularly severe hot summer drought in 2018, widespread premature leaf senescence was observed in several broadleaved tree species in Central Europe, particularly in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). For beech, it is yet unknown whether the drought evoked a decline towards tree mortality or whether trees can recover in the longer term. In this study, we monitored crown dieback, tree mortality and secondary drought damage symptoms in 963 initially live beech trees that exhibited either premature or normal leaf senescence in 2018 in three regions in northern Switzerland from 2018 to 2021. We related the observed damage to multiple climate- and stand-related parameters. Cumulative tree mortality continuously increased up to 7.2% and 1.3% in 2021 for trees with premature and normal leaf senescence in 2018, respectively. Mean crown dieback in surviving trees peaked at 29.2% in 2020 and 8.1% in 2019 for trees with premature and normal leaf senescence, respectively. Thereafter, trees showed first signs of recovery. Crown damage was more pronounced and recovery was slower for trees that showed premature leaf senescence in 2018, for trees growing on drier sites, and for larger trees. The presence of bleeding cankers peaked at 24.6% in 2019 and 10.7% in 2020 for trees with premature and normal leaf senescence, respectively. The presence of bark beetle holes peaked at 22.8% and 14.8% in 2021 for trees with premature and normal leaf senescence, respectively. Both secondary damage symptoms occurred more frequently in trees that had higher proportions of crown dieback and/or showed premature senescence in 2018. Our findings demonstrate context-specific differences in beech mortality and recovery reflecting the importance of regional and local climate and soil conditions. Adapting management to increase forest resilience is gaining importance, given the expected further beech decline on dry sites in northern Switzerland.

Supporting habitat restoration in the northern Gulf of Mexico through synthesis of data on multiple and interacting benefits and stressors

Outcomes of landscape scale restoration and conservation can be maximized when planning is based upon quantitative and decision-relevant information. Existing tools to support data-driven planning are hindered by regionally inconsistent information and a need for advanced methods to analyze data of varying spatial resolution and coverage. We present a synthesis methodology for region-wide derived metrics to characterize natural resource value, ecosystem stress, and social vulnerability to inform implementation of conservation and restoration projects. Our three-part methodology was developed and tested for the Gulf of Mexico in support of the Southeast Conservation Blueprint that was created to advance the Southeast Conservation and Adaptation Strategy. The first step included integration of prioritized natural resource metrics alongside socio-ecological metrics to create a data layer of synthesized natural resource priority across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The second component was calculation of ecosystem stress indices based on ecologically relevant thresholds and a cumulative ecosystem stress layer, in addition to analyzing correlations between individual stressors and their relative importance. The final component was development of a social vulnerability (SoVI) index. Analysis of these metrics illustrate their ability to effectively capture variability at multiple scales in the Gulf of Mexico, including expected spatial correlation of stressors such as road density and non-point source pollution in populated areas and the dominance of sea-level rise as a future stressor along the coast. Significant composite components of social vulnerability for the northern Gulf of Mexico region were identified and include economic status, professional workforce, elderly population, population stability, migrant workforce, and rural population. To demonstrate the utility of the data synthesis approach, we used the developed data layers to evaluate proposed marsh creation projects in southern Louisiana. The synthesized data layers were capable of distinguishing differences at the scale of individual habitat restoration projects, and high-value projects could be aligned with the goals of key funding streams. This pilot application illustrates how restoration programs could use the methodology developed here to maximize benefits from conservation and restoration actions along the northern Gulf of Mexico or other regions globally.

Drought legacies and ecosystem responses to subsequent drought

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts. These events, which can cause significant perturbations of terrestrial ecosystems and potentially long-term impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning after the drought has subsided are often called 'drought legacies'. While the immediate effects of drought on ecosystems have been comparatively well characterized, our broader understanding of drought legacies is just emerging. Drought legacies can relate to all aspects of ecosystem structure and functioning, involving changes at the species and the community scale as well as alterations of soil properties. This has consequences for ecosystem responses to subsequent drought. Here, we synthesize current knowledge on drought legacies and the underlying mechanisms. We highlight the relevance of legacy duration to different ecosystem processes using examples of carbon cycling and community composition. We present hypotheses characterizing how intrinsic (i.e. biotic and abiotic properties and processes) and extrinsic (i.e. drought timing, severity, and frequency) factors could alter resilience trajectories under scenarios of recurrent drought events. We propose ways for improving our understanding of drought legacies and their implications for subsequent drought events, needed to assess the longer-term consequences of droughts on ecosystem structure and functioning.

Drought index predictability for historical and future periods across the Southern plain of Nepal Himalaya

Drought episodes across the Himalayas are inevitable due to rapidly increasing atmospheric temperatures and uncertainties in rainfall patterns. Tarai of Nepal is a tropical region located in the foothills of the Central Himalaya as a country's food granary with a contribution of over 50% to the entire country's agricultural production. However, there is a lack of detailed studies exploring the spatiotemporal occurrence of drought in these regions under the changing climate. In this study, we used the ensemble of nine climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP245 (an intermediate development pathway) and SSP585 (a high development pathway), to assess anticipated drought during the mid-century. We used bias-corrected gridded data from the Worldclim to project drought events by the end of the mid-century based on the historical period (1989-2018). We computed historical and projected Thornthwaite moisture index (TMI) to evaluate soil moisture conditions on a seasonal scale for the Tarai region's Eastern, Central, and Western parts. The model ensemble projected a significant increase in precipitation and temperature for the entire Tarai by the end of mid-century. However, the winter and spring seasons are projected to suffer precipitation deficiency and a temperature rise. Our results indicated that the Eastern Tarai would likely experience a decrease in winter precipitation. We emphasize that the presented spatiotemporal pattern of the MI will be instrumental in addressing the irrigation facility's needs, choice, and rotation of crops under the changing climate scenarios and in improving our mitigation measures and adaptation plans for sustainability of the agriculture in drought-prone areas.

Low acclimation potential compromises the performance of water-stressed pine saplings under Mediterranean xeric conditions

Predicted hotter and drier climatic conditions in the Mediterranean Basin will probably hamper current afforestations and reforestations by negatively influencing tree performance. Understanding how saplings can adjust their physiology to shortages in water availability is essential to predict early-stage success of forest ecological restoration. Pines are common target species used in afforestations and reforestations; however, the capacity of their saplings for physiological plasticity to promote drought tolerance remains largely unexplored. In this study, we evaluated the demographical and resource-use consequences of short-term irrigation among four pine species (Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinea, Pinus nigra and Pinus sylvestris) growing under water-limiting conditions in a common garden experiment. Summer irrigation increased the survival rate of those pines that were suffering from hydric stress under the xeric conditions of the common garden (i.e. P. pinea, P. nigra and P. sylvestris). Moreover, short-term water supplementation slightly enhanced aboveground biomass production across species. However, leaf isotopic composition and nutrient concentrations did not change after summer irrigation. Independently of water supplementation, P. halepensis was the best adapted species to water scarcity and showed the best physiological and growth performance. By contrast, P. pinea, P. nigra and P. sylvestris saplings exhibited drought-induced reductions in stomatal conductance and low water-use efficiency, nutrient deficiency, and severe N:P and N:K stoichiometric imbalances, leading to impaired growth. We conclude that the lack of physiological plasticity of water-stressed pine saplings to withstand the impacts of climate aridification will likely cause severe impairment of their nutrient status, growth and survival, with dire implications for the successful establishment of Mediterranean afforestation and reforestation programs.

Photosynthetic and hydraulic traits influence forest resistance and resilience to drought stress across different biomes

Drought events lead to depressions in gross primary productivity (GPP) of forest ecosystems. Photosynthetic and hydraulic traits are important factors governing GPP variation. However, how these functional traits affect GPP responses to drought has not been well understood. We quantified the capacity of GPP to withstand changes during droughts (GPP_resistance) and its post-drought responses (GPP_resilience) using eddy covariance data from the FLUXNET2015 dataset, and investigated how functional traits of dominant tree species that comprised >80% of the biomass (or composition) influenced GPP_resistance or GPP_resilience. Light-saturated photosynthetic rate of dominant tree species was negatively related to GPP_resistance, and was positively correlated with GPP_resilience. Forests dominated by species with higher hydraulic safety margins (HSM), smaller vessel diameter (V_dia) and lower sensitivity of canopy stomatal conductance per unit land area (G_s) to droughts had a higher GPP_resistance, while those dominated by species with lower HSM, larger V_dia and higher sensitivity of G_s to droughts exhibited a higher GPP_resilience. Differences in functional traits of forests located in diverse climate regions led to distinct GPP sensitivities to droughts. Forests located in humid regions had a higher GPP_resilience while those in arid regions exhibited a higher GPP_resistance. Forest GPP_resistance was negatively related to drought intensity, and GPP_resilience was negatively related to drought duration. Our findings highlight the significant role of functional traits in governing forest resistance and resilience to droughts. Overall, forests dominated by species with higher hydraulic safety were more resistant to droughts, while forests containing species with higher photosynthetic and hydraulic efficiency recovered better from drought stress.

Influence of Juvenile Growth on Xylem Safety and Efficiency in Three Temperate Tree Species

The evolution of the internal water transport system was a prerequisite for high plant productivity. In times of climate change, understanding the dependency of juvenile growth on xylem hydraulic physiology is therefore of high importance. Here, we explored various wood anatomical, hydraulic, and leaf morphological traits related to hydraulic safety and efficiency in three temperate broadleaved tree species (Acer pseudoplatanus, Betula pendula, and Sorbus aucuparia). We took advantage of a severe natural heat wave that resulted in different climatic growing conditions for even-aged plants from the same seed source growing inside a greenhouse and outside. Inside the greenhouse, the daily maximum vapour pressure deficit was on average 36% higher than outside during the growing seasons. Because of the higher atmospheric moisture stress, the biomass production differed up to 5.6-fold between both groups. Except for one species, a high productivity was associated with a high hydraulic efficiency caused by large xylem vessels and a large, supported leaf area. Although no safety-efficiency trade-off was observed, productivity was significantly related to P50 in two of the tree species but without revealing any clear pattern. A considerable plasticity in given traits was observed between both groups, with safety-related traits being more static while efficiency-related traits revealed a higher intra-specific plasticity. This was associated with other wood anatomical and leaf morphological adjustments. We confirm that a high hydraulic efficiency seems to be a prerequisite for a high biomass production, while our controversial results on the growth–xylem safety relationship confirm that safety-efficiency traits are decoupled and that their relationship with juvenile growth and water regime is species-specific.

Drought timing and species growth phenology determine intra-annual recovery of tree height and diameter growth

Droughts interact with tree phenology to drive declines in growth. As climate change makes drought more likely in the Northeastern USA, it is important to understand how droughts at different times of year will lead to reduced height and diameter growth of trees. To determine how seasonal drought may reduce intra-annual growth, we implemented spring, summer or fall droughts on 288 containerized saplings of six tree species (Acer rubrum, Betula papyrifera, Prunus serotina, Juniperus virginiana, Pinus strobus and Thuja occidentalis). We tracked weekly soil moisture, leaf water potential, height, diameter and survival of all trees before, during and after each 6-week drought. We found that the tree species that conducted the majority of their height or diameter growth in the spring were most sensitive to spring droughts (B. papyrifera and Pi. strobus). Thuja occidentalis also experienced significantly reduced growth from the spring drought but increased growth after the drought ended and achieved total height and diameter growth similar to controls. In contrast, summer droughts halted growth in most species for the remainder of the growing season even after the drought had ended. Fall droughts never impacted growth in the current year. These fine temporal-scale measurements of height and diameter growth suggest that tree response varies among species and is dynamic at intra-annual scales. These relatively rare data on intra-annual height growth sensitivity are important for canopy recruitment of saplings in forest ecosystems. Species-specific sensitivities of intra-annual growth to drought can inform models of forest competition in a changing climate.

Thinning increases forest resiliency during unprecedented drought

Regional droughts are now widespread and are projected to further increase. Semi-arid ponderosa pine forests across the western USA, which occupy > 56 million ha, are experiencing unprecedented levels of drought due to the currently ongoing North American megadrought. Using unpiloted aerial vehicle (UAV) thermal images and ground-based hyperspectral data, here we show that ponderosa pine forest canopy temperatures increased during the 2021 summer drought up to 34.6 °C, far above a typical canopy temperature when ponderosa pine trees no longer uptake carbon. We infer that much of the western US ponderosa pine forests likely served as a net carbon source rather than a sink during the 2021 summer drought period. We also demonstrate that regional forest restoration thinning significantly reduced the drought impacts. Thinned ponderosa pine forests had significantly lower increase in canopy temperature and canopy water stress during the drought period compared to the non-thinned forest stands. Furthermore, our extensive soil moisture network data indicate that available soil moisture in the thinned forest was significantly greater at all soil depths of 25 cm, 50 cm, and 100 cm compared to the non-thinned forest, where soil moisture dry-down in the spring started significantly earlier and stayed dry for one month longer causing critical water stress for trees. Forest restoration thinning benefits that are otherwise unappreciated during average precipitation years are significantly amplified during unprecedented drought periods.

Future climate risks from stress, insects and fire across US forests

Forests are currently a substantial carbon sink globally. Many climate change mitigation strategies leverage forest preservation and expansion, but rely on forests storing carbon for decades to centuries. Yet climate‐driven disturbances pose critical risks to the long‐term stability of forest carbon. We quantify the climate drivers that influence wildfire and climate stress‐driven tree mortality, including a separate insect‐driven tree mortality, for the contiguous United States for current (1984–2018) and project these future disturbance risks over the 21st century. We find that current risks are widespread and projected to increase across different emissions scenarios by a factor of >4 for fire and >1.3 for climate‐stress mortality. These forest disturbance risks highlight pervasive climate‐sensitive disturbance impacts on US forests and raise questions about the risk management approach taken by forest carbon offset policies. Our results provide US‐wide risk maps of key climate‐sensitive disturbances for improving carbon cycle modeling, conservation and climate policy.

Limits to reproduction and seed size-number trade-offs that shape forest dominance and future recovery

The relationships that control seed production in trees are fundamental to understanding the evolution of forest species and their capacity to recover from increasing losses to drought, fire, and harvest. A synthesis of fecundity data from 714 species worldwide allowed us to examine hypotheses that are central to quantifying reproduction, a foundation for assessing fitness in forest trees. Four major findings emerged. First, seed production is not constrained by a strict trade-off between seed size and numbers. Instead, seed numbers vary over ten orders of magnitude, with species that invest in large seeds producing more seeds than expected from the 1:1 trade-off. Second, gymnosperms have lower seed production than angiosperms, potentially due to their extra investments in protective woody cones. Third, nutrient-demanding species, indicated by high foliar phosphorus concentrations, have low seed production. Finally, sensitivity of individual species to soil fertility varies widely, limiting the response of community seed production to fertility gradients. In combination, these findings can inform models of forest response that need to incorporate reproductive potential.

Revaluating forest drought experiments according to future precipitation patterns, ecosystem carbon and decomposition rate responses: A meta-analysis

Moisture availability is a strong determinant of decomposition rates in forests worldwide. Climate models suggest that many terrestrial ecosystems are at risk from future droughts, suggesting moisture limiting conditions will develop across a range of forests worldwide. The impacts of increasing drought conditions on forest carbon (C) fluxes due to shifts in organic matter decay rates may be poorly characterised due to limited experimental research. To appraise this question, we conducted a meta-analysis of forest drought experiment studies worldwide, examining spatial limits, knowledge gaps and potential biases. To identify limits to experimental knowledge, we projected the global distribution of forest drought experiments against spatially modelled estimates of (i) future precipitation change, (ii) ecosystem total above-ground C and (iii) soil C storage. Our assessment, involving 115 individual experimental study locations, found a mismatch between the distribution of forest drought experiments and regions with higher levels of future drought risk and C storage, such as Central America, Amazonia, the Atlantic Forest of Brazil, equatorial Africa and Indonesia. Decomposition rate responses in litter and soil were also relatively under-studied, with only 30 experiments specifically examining the potential experimental impacts of drought on C fluxes from soil or litter. We propose new approaches for engaging experimentally with forest drought research, utilising standardised protocols to appraise the impacts of drought on the C cycle, while targeting the most vulnerable and relevant forests.

MASTREE+: Time-series of plant reproductive effort from six continents

Significant gaps remain in understanding the response of plant reproduction to environmental change. This is partly because measuring reproduction in long-lived plants requires direct observation over many years and such datasets have rarely been made publicly available. Here we introduce MASTREE+, a data set that collates reproductive time-series data from across the globe and makes these data freely available to the community. MASTREE+ includes 73,828 georeferenced observations of annual reproduction (e.g. seed and fruit counts) in perennial plant populations worldwide. These observations consist of 5971 population-level time-series from 974 species in 66 countries. The mean and median time-series length is 12.4 and 10 years respectively, and the data set includes 1122 series that extend over at least two decades (≥20 years of observations). For a subset of well-studied species, MASTREE+ includes extensive replication of time-series across geographical and climatic gradients. Here we describe the open-access data set, available as a.csv file, and we introduce an associated web-based app for data exploration. MASTREE+ will provide the basis for improved understanding of the response of long-lived plant reproduction to environmental change. Additionally, MASTREE+ will enable investigation of the ecology and evolution of reproductive strategies in perennial plants, and the role of plant reproduction as a driver of ecosystem dynamics.

Satellite data reveal differential responses of Swiss forests to unprecedented 2018 drought

Extreme events such as the summer drought of 2018 in Central Europe are projected to occur more frequently in the future and may cause major damages including increased tree mortality and negative impacts on forest ecosystem services. Here, we quantify the response of >1 million forest pixels of 10 × 10 m across Switzerland to the 2018 drought in terms of resistance, recovery, and resilience. We used the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) derived from Sentinel-2 satellite data as a proxy for canopy water content and analyzed its relative change. We calculated NDWI change between the 2017 pre-drought and 2018 drought years (indicating resistance), 2018 and the 2019 post-drought (indicating recovery), and between 2017-2019 (indicating resilience). Analyzing the data from this large natural experiment, we found that for 4.3% of the Swiss forest the NDWI declined between 2017 and 2018, indicating areas with low resistance of the forest canopy to drought effects. While roughly 50% of this area recovered, in 2.7% of the forested area NDWI continued to decline from 2018 to 2019, suggesting prolonged negative effects or delayed damage. We found differential forest responses to drought associated with site topographic characteristics and forest stand characteristics, and to a lesser extent with climatic conditions and interactions between these drivers. Low drought resistance and high recovery were most prominent at forest edges, but also on south-facing slopes and lower elevations. Tree functional type was the most important driver of drought resilience, with most of the damage in stands with high conifer abundance. Our results demonstrate the suitability of satellite-based quantification of drought-induced forest damage at high spatial resolution across large areas. Such information is important to predict how local site characteristics may impact forest vulnerability to future extreme events and help in the search for appropriate adaptation strategies.

Deep Learning for Streamflow Regionalization for Ungauged Basins: Application of Long-Short-Term-Memory Cells in Semiarid Regions

Rainfall-runoff modeling in ungauged basins continues to be a great hydrological research challenge. A novel approach is the Long-Short-Term-Memory neural network (LSTM) from the Deep Learning toolbox, which few works have addressed its use for rainfall-runoff regionalization. This work aims to discuss the application of LSTM as a regional method against traditional neural network (FFNN) and conceptual models in a practical framework with adverse conditions: reduced data availability, shallow soil catchments with semiarid climate, and monthly time step. For this, the watersheds chosen were located on State of Ceará, Northeast Brazil. For streamflow regionalization, both LSTM and FFNN were better than the hydrological model used as benchmark, however, the FFNN were quite superior. The neural network methods also showed the ability to aggregate process understanding from different watersheds as the performance of the neural networks trained with the regionalization data were better with the neural networks trained for single catchments.

Size-mediated effects of climate on tree growth and mortality in Mediterranean Brutia pine forests

The Eastern Mediterranean Basin is experiencing long-term drought conditions that affect the growth and mortality of many forest tree species. We analysed tree rings from 113 Pinus brutia (living and dead) trees of different age (<50, 50-85, >85 years old) and size to study how climatic variation during the 20th century has shaped their radial-growth and mortality patterns. We selected the pine forest on the island of Lesvos (Greece) representing the largest continuous P. brutia forest on the Aegean islands, to develop a chronology that could provide a bridge between the available tree-ring data sets from the Western and Eastern Mediterranean region. The analysis of the novel chronology captured well-known drought events during the 20th century, such as those in 1949, 1990 and 2007, and provided an equation to reconstruct the intensity of droughts (10 month time scale). P. brutia tree-growth indicated a positive trend from the beginning until the 3rd quarter of the 21st century and then flattened for living trees. Trees that eventually died between 2010 and 2019, were characterized by a much lower growth than surviving trees and also illustrated a long-lasting negative growth trend. Precipitation and water availability (inferred from the SPEI drought index) were positively related to the growth of living and dead trees, mainly in the middle and old age classes. Temperature effect on tree growth shifted from negative to positive with increasing age of living trees, but remained always negative across all age classes in trees that eventually died. Our findings verify the positive effect of water availability on tree growth and survival of Mediterranean pines and highlight a size-mediated effect of temperature on tree growth, probably coupled with individual-tree access to underground water resources. Increased air temperatures during various time periods related to tree physiological activity seem to negatively affect tree survival across all age classes, in Mediterranean P. brutia forests, highlighting their potential vulnerability to global warming conditions.

Canopy damage during a natural drought depends on species identity, physiology and stand composition

Vulnerability to xylem cavitation is a strong predictor of drought-induced damage in forest communities. However, biotic features of the community itself can influence water availability at the individual tree-level, thereby modifying patterns of drought damage. Using an experimental forest in Tasmania, Australia, we determined the vulnerability to cavitation (leaf P₅₀ ) of four tree species and assessed the drought-induced canopy damage of 2944 6-yr-old trees after an extreme natural drought episode. We examined how individual damage was related to their size and the density and species identity of neighbouring trees. The two co-occurring dominant tree species, Eucalyptus delegatensis and Eucalyptus regnans, were the most vulnerable to drought-induced xylem cavitation and both species suffered significantly greater damage than neighbouring, subdominant species Pomaderris apetala and Acacia dealbata. While the two eucalypts had similar leaf P₅₀ values, E. delegatensis suffered significantly greater damage, which was strongly related to the density of neighbouring P. apetala. Damage in E. regnans was less impacted by neighbouring plants and smaller trees of both eucalypts sustained significantly more damage than larger trees. Our findings demonstrate that natural drought damage is influenced by individual plant physiology as well as the composition, physiology and density of the surrounding stand.

Short-term forest resilience after drought-induced die-off in Southwestern European forests

Drought-induced die-off in forests is becoming a widespread phenomenon across biomes, but the factors determining potential shifts in taxonomic and structural characteristics following mortality are largely unknown. We report on short-term patterns of resilience after drought-induced episodes of tree mortality across 48 monospecific forests from Morocco to Slovenia. Field surveys recorded plants growing beneath a canopy of dead, defoliated and healthy trees. Site-level structural characteristics and management legacy were also recorded. Resilience was assessed with reference to forest composition (self-replacement), structure, and changes in the climatic suitability of the replacing community relative to the climatic suitability of the dominant pre-drought species. Species climatic suitability was estimated from species distribution models calculated for the baseline 1970-2000 period. Short-term resilience decreased under higher levels of drought-induced damage to the dominant species and with evidences of management legacy. Greater resilience of structural features (fewer gaps, greater canopy height) was observed overall in forests with a larger basal area. Less gaps were also associated with greater woody species richness after drought. Overall, Fagaceae-dominated forests exhibited greater structural resilience than conifer-dominated ones. On those sites that were more climatically suited to the dominant pre-drought species, replacing communities tended to exhibit lower climatic suitability than pre-drought dominant species. There was a greater loss of climatic suitability under a legacy of management and drought intensity, but less so in the replacing communities with higher woody species richness. Our study reveals that short-term forest resilience is determined by pre-drought stand characteristics, often reflecting previous management legacies, and by the impact of drought on both the dominant pre-drought species and post-drought replacing species in terms of their climatic suitability.

Poor acclimation to experimental field drought in subalpine forest tree seedlings

The ability of tree species to acclimate and tolerate projected increases in drought frequency and intensity has fundamental implications for future forest dynamics with climate change. Inquiries to date on the drought tolerance capacities of tree species, however, have focused almost exclusively on mature trees with scant in situ work on seedlings, despite the central role that regeneration dynamics play in forest responses to changing conditions. We subjected naturally established seedlings of co-dominant subalpine conifer species (Abies lasiocarpa and Picea engelmannii) in the southern Rocky Mountains to 2 years of in situ summer precipitation exclusion, simulating summer drought conditions similar to a failure of the North American monsoon. We compared the morphological and physiological responses of seedlings growing in drought vs. ambient conditions to assess the relative changes in drought tolerance traits as a function of seedling size. Drought treatments had a marked impact on soil moisture: volumetric water content averaged ≈5-8 % in drought treatments and ≈8-12 % in ambient controls. We detected no significant shifts in morphology (e.g. root biomass, leaf:stem area ratio) in response to drought for either species, but net photosynthesis in drought treatments was 78 % lower for spruce and 37 % lower for fir. Greater stomatal control associated with increasing stem diameter conferred greater water use efficiencies in larger seedlings in both species but was not significantly different between drought and ambient conditions, suggesting an overall lack of responsivity to water stress and a prioritization of carbon gain over investment in drought mitigation traits. These results indicate a canonization of traits that, while useful for early seedling establishment, may portend substantial vulnerability of subalpine seedling populations to prolonged or recurrent droughts, especially for spruce.

Breeding for adaptation to climate change: genomic selection for drought response in a white spruce multi‐site polycross test

With climate change, increasingly intense and frequent drought episodes will be affecting water availability for boreal tree species, prompting tree breeders and forest managers to consider adaptation to drought stress as a priority in their reforestation efforts. We used a 19‐year‐old polycross progeny test of the model conifer white spruce (Picea glauca) replicated on two sites affected by distinct drought episodes at different ages to estimate the genetic control and the potential for improvement of drought response in addition to conventional cumulative growth and wood quality traits. Drought response components were measured from dendrochronological signatures matching drought episodes in wood ring increment cores. We found that trees with more vigorous growth during their lifespan resisted better during the current year of a drought episode when the drought had more severe effects. Phenotypic data were also analyzed using genomic prediction (GBLUP) relying on the genomic relationship matrix of multi‐locus gene SNP marker information, and conventional analysis (ABLUP) based on validated pedigree information. The accuracy of predicted breeding values for drought response components was marginally lower than that for conventional traits and comparable between GBLUP and ABLUP. Genetic correlations were generally low and nonsignificant between drought response components and conventional traits, except for resistance which was positively correlated to tree height. Heritability estimates for the components of drought response were slightly lower than for conventional traits, but similar single‐trait genetic gains could be obtained. Multi‐trait genomic selection simulations indicated that it was possible to improve simultaneously for all traits on both sites while sacrificing little on gain in tree height. In a context of rapid climate change, our results suggest that with careful phenotypic assessment, drought response may be considered in multi‐trait improvement of white spruce, with accelerated screening of large numbers of candidates and selection at young age with genomic selection.

The Drought Response of Eastern US Oaks in the Context of Their Declining Abundance

The oak (Quercus) species of eastern North America are declining in abundance, threatening the many socioecological benefits they provide. We discuss the mechanisms responsible for their loss, many of which are rooted in the prevailing view that oaks are drought tolerant. We then synthesize previously published data to comprehensively review the drought response strategies of eastern US oaks, concluding that whether or not eastern oaks are drought tolerant depends firmly on the metric of success. Although the anisohydric strategy of oaks sometimes confers a gas exchange and growth advantage, it exposes oaks to damaging hydraulic failure, such that oaks are just as or more likely to perish during drought than neighboring species. Consequently, drought frequency is not a strong predictor of historic patterns of oak abundance, although long-term climate and fire frequency are strongly correlated with declines in oak dominance. The oaks’ ability to survive drought may become increasingly difficult in a drier future.

North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East

Suitable habitats for forest trees may be shifting fast with recent climate change. Studies tracking the shift in suitable habitat for forests have been inconclusive, in part because responses in tree fecundity and seedling establishment can diverge. Analysis of both components at a continental scale reveals a poleward migration of northern species that is in progress now. Recruitment and fecundity both contribute to poleward spread in the West, while fecundity limits spread in the East, despite a fecundity hotspot in the Southeast. Fecundity limitation on population spread can confront conservation and management efforts with persistent disequilibrium between forest diversity and rapid climate change.

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.

Niche Shifts From Trees to Fecundity to Recruitment That Determine Species Response to Climate Change

Anticipating the next generation of forests requires understanding of recruitment responses to habitat change. Tree distribution and abundance depend not only on climate, but also on habitat variables, such as soils and drainage, and on competition beneath a shaded canopy. Recent analyses show that North American tree species are migrating in response to climate change, which is exposing each population to novel climate-habitat interactions (CHI). Because CHI have not been estimated for either adult trees or regeneration (recruits per year per adult basal area), we cannot evaluate migration potential into the future. Using the Masting Inference and Forecasting (MASTIF) network of tree fecundity and new continent-wide observations of tree recruitment, we quantify impacts for redistribution across life stages from adults to fecundity to recruitment. We jointly modeled response of adult abundance and recruitment rate to climate/habitat conditions, combined with fecundity sensitivity, to evaluate if shifting CHI explain community reorganization. To compare climate effects with tree fecundity, which is estimated from trees and thus is "conditional" on tree presence, we demonstrate how to quantify this conditional status for regeneration. We found that fecundity was regulated by temperature to a greater degree than other stages, yet exhibited limited responses to moisture deficit. Recruitment rate expressed strong sensitivities to CHI, more like adults than fecundity, but still with substantial differences. Communities reorganized from adults to fecundity, but there was a re-coalescence of groups as seedling recruitment partially reverted to community structure similar to that of adults. Results provide the first estimates of continent-wide community sensitivity and their implications for reorganization across three life-history stages under climate change.

Prediction of soil seed bank of piedmont and alluvial environments of Dera Ghazi Khan, Punjab, Pakistan

The current focus is on the overall pattern of seed storage present in the fragments of the soil of piedmont and alluvial landscapes of the environment. The present study predicted the seed banks of both soils of alluvial and piedmont zones in different ecological conditions and evaluate the potential of seeds in the restoration of both environments. The composition of the seed bank of soil is mainly affected by the alluvial environment and the structure of cleared area shows that more species of germinating annual grasses and growable seeds with the higher total number. Extant vegetation structures have an important role in the diversity of soil seed reservoirs, whose composition corresponded with the openness of the site. When in situ soil seed bank is recruited, it helps to restore only some components of the plant community in an alluvial environment. In our current research, it was confirmed that seed richness was higher in number at lower elevation (alluvial) than that at high elevation (piedmont). Seed richness showed a significant negative correlation with anions, cations, while significantly positive with altitude that suggests the richness pattern of the overall seed bank of the area is influenced by various environmental factors.

Adding Tree Rings to North America's National Forest Inventories: An Essential Tool to Guide Drawdown of Atmospheric CO2

Tree-ring time series provide long-term, annually resolved information on the growth of trees. When sampled in a systematic context, tree-ring data can be scaled to estimate the forest carbon capture and storage of landscapes, biomes, and—ultimately—the globe. A systematic effort to sample tree rings in national forest inventories would yield unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution of forest carbon dynamics and help resolve key scientific uncertainties, which we highlight in terms of evidence for forest greening (enhanced growth) versus browning (reduced growth, increased mortality). We describe jump-starting a tree-ring collection across the continent of North America, given the commitments of Canada, the United States, and Mexico to visit forest inventory plots, along with existing legacy collections. Failing to do so would be a missed opportunity to help chart an evidence-based path toward meeting national commitments to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, urgently needed for climate stabilization and repair.

Acclimation of hydraulic and morphological traits to water deficit delays hydraulic failure during simulated drought in poplar

The capacity of trees to tolerate and survive increasing drought conditions in situ will depend in part on their ability to acclimate (via phenotypic plasticity) key hydraulic and morphological traits that increase drought tolerance and delay the onset of drought-induced hydraulic failure. However, the effect of water-deficit acclimation in key traits that determine time to hydraulic failure (THF) during extreme drought remains largely untested. We measured key hydraulic and morphological traits in saplings of a hybrid poplar grown under well-watered and water-limited conditions. The time for plants to dry-down to critical levels of water stress (90% loss of stem hydraulic conductance), as well as the relative contribution of drought acclimation in each trait to THF, was simulated using a soil-plant hydraulic model (SurEau). Compared with controls, water-limited plants exhibited significantly lower stem hydraulic vulnerability (P50stem), stomatal conductance and total canopy leaf area (LA). Taken together, adjustments in these and other traits resulted in longer modelled THF in water-limited (~160 h) compared with well-watered plants (~50 h), representing an increase of more than 200%. Sensitivity analysis revealed that adjustment in P50stem and LA contributed the most to longer THF in water-limited plants. We observed a high degree of trait plasticity in poplar saplings in response to water-deficit growth conditions, with decreases in stem hydraulic vulnerability and leaf area playing a key role in delaying the onset of hydraulic failure during a simulated drought event. These findings suggest that understanding the capacity of plants to acclimate to antecedent growth conditions will enable better predictions of plant survivorship during future drought.