Land management: data availability and process understanding for global change studies

A global land-use data cube 1992-2020 based on the Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production

Land use is intimately linked to key components of the Earth system, including the climate system, biodiversity and biogeochemical cycles. Advanced understanding of patterns and dynamics of land use is vital for assessing impacts on these system components and for developing strategies to ensure sustainability. However, thematically detailed data that enable the analyses of spatiotemporal dynamics of land use, including land-use intensity, are currently lacking. This study presents a comprehensive land-use data cube (LUIcube) that traces global land-use area and intensity developments between 1992 and 2020 annually at 30 arcsecond spatial resolution. It discerns 32 land-use classes that can be aggregated to cropland, grazing land, forestry, built-up land and wilderness. Land-use intensity is represented through the framework of Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production, which allows to quantify changes in NPP, respectively biomass flows, induced by land conversion and land-management. The LUIcube provides the necessary database for analyzing the role of natural and socioeconomic drivers of land-use change and its ecological impacts to inform strategies for sustainable land management.

A meta-analysis reveals increases in soil organic carbon following the restoration and recovery of croplands in Southwest China

In China, the Grain for Green Program (GGP) is an ambitious project to convert croplands into natural vegetation, but exactly how changes in vegetation translate into changes in soil organic carbon remains less clear. Here we conducted a meta-analysis using 734 observations to explore the effects of land recovery on soil organic carbon and nutrients in four provinces in Southwest China. Following GGP, the soil organic carbon content (SOCc) and soil organic carbon stock (SOCs) increased by 33.73% and 22.39%, respectively, compared with the surrounding croplands. Similarly, soil nitrogen increased, while phosphorus decreased. Outcomes were heterogeneous, but depended on variations in soil and environmental characteristics. Both the regional land use and cover change indicated by the landscape type transfer matrix and net primary production from 2000 to 2020 further confirmed that the GGP promoted the forest area and regional mean net primary production. Our findings suggest that the GGP could enhance soil and vegetation carbon sequestration in Southwest China and help to develop a carbon-neutral strategy.

Applications of land surface model to economic and environmental-friendly optimization of nitrogen fertilization and irrigation

Land surface models (LSMs) have prominent advantages for exploring the best agricultural practices in terms of both economic and environmental benefits with regard to different climate scenarios. However, their applications to optimizing fertilization and irrigation have not been well discussed because of their relatively underdeveloped crop modules. We used a CLM5-Crop LSM to optimize fertilization and irrigation schedules that follow actual agricultural practices for the cultivation of maize and wheat, as well as to explore the most economic and environmental-friendly inputs of nitrogen fertilizer and irrigation (FI), in the North China Plain (NCP), which is a typical intensive farming area. The model used the indicators of crop yield, farm gross margin (FGM), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), water use efficiency (WUE), and soil nitrogen leaching. The results showed that the total optimal FI inputs of FGM were the highest (230 ± 75.8 kg N ha-1 and 20 ± 44.7 mm for maize; 137.5 ± 25 kg N ha-1 and 362.5 ± 47.9 mm for wheat), followed by the FIs of yield, NUE, WUE, and soil nitrogen leaching. After multi-objective optimization, the optimal FIs were 230 ± 75.8 kg N ha-1 and 20 ± 44.7 mm for maize, and 137.5 ± 25 kg N ha-1 and 387.5 ± 85.4 mm for wheat. By comparing our model-based diagnostic results with the actual inputs of FIs in the NCP, we found excessive usage of nitrogen fertilizer and irrigation during the current cultivation period of maize and wheat. The scientific collocation of fertilizer and water resources should be seriously considered for economic and environmental benefits. Overall, the optimized inputs of the FIs were in reasonable ranges, as postulated by previous studies. This result hints at the potential applications of LSMs for guiding sustainable agricultural development.

Farmland expansion and intensification do not foster local food self-sufficiency. Insights from the Mediterranean area

Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale in modelling food security to inform context-specific regionalised policies remains a major scientific challenge. A better understanding of the relations between global and local drivers impacting local food self-sufficiency (LFSS) is essential. We applied to the whole Mediterranean environmental area (Southern and Northern) a modelling framework for structural estimates (PLS-PM) using qualitative and quantitative methods to combine local-level information from field surveys and participatory workshops with global-level data. Our findings show that farmland expansion and intensification spatially disconnected from urban consumption areas do not appear to foster LFSS. On the other hand, public policies appear key to enhancing LFSS in the Mediterranean area if appropriate to the particular regional context. We outline how this multi-level modelling methodology can contribute to a place-based approach by informing context-specific regionalised policies aimed at food security.

Protected areas reduce deforestation and degradation and enhance woody growth across African woodlands

Protected areas are increasingly promoted for their capacity to sequester carbon, alongside biodiversity benefits. However, we have limited understanding of whether they are effective at reducing deforestation and degradation, or promoting vegetation growth, and the impact that this has on changes to aboveground woody carbon stocks. Here we present a new satellite radar-based map of vegetation carbon change across southern Africa's woodlands and combine this with a matching approach to assess the effect of protected areas on carbon dynamics. We show that protection has a positive effect on aboveground carbon, with stocks increasing faster in protected areas (+0.53% per year) compared to comparable lands not under protection (+0.08% per year). The positive effect of protection reflects lower rates of deforestation (-39%) and degradation (-25%), as well as a greater prevalence of vegetation growth (+12%) inside protected lands. Areas under strict protection had similar outcomes to other types of protection after controlling for differences in location, with effect scores instead varying more by country, and the level of threat. These results highlight the potential for protected areas to sequester aboveground carbon, although we caution that in some areas this may have negative impacts on biodiversity, and human wellbeing.

The role of social capital in forest conservation: An approach to deal with deforestation

Understanding the position of social capital to coping with deforestation is very important. In this regard, the main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of social capital of rural households on forest conservation behavior (FCB) in Iran. The three specialized goals of this research include (1) the role of social capital of rural people in facilitating forest conservation measures (2) identifying the most effective factors of social capital influencing forest conservation (3) identifying the mechanism of social capital's effect on FCB. In this study, questionnaire survey method and structural equation modeling (SEM) were used. The statistical population included all the rural communities inside and on the edge of Arasbaran forests in the northwest of Iran. The results showed that the components of social capital (social trust, social networks and social engagement) can facilitate forest conservation measures and were able to explain 46.3 % of its variance. In addition, the findings indicated that these components affect protective measures through a specific mechanism, which means that they can affect protective behaviors by influencing the cognition of policies and increasing the awareness of rural communities. In general, the results of this research, in addition to improving the existing knowledge, provide new insights for the policy-makers and ultimately help the sustainable management of the forests in this region.

The Role of Wildfires in the Interplay of Forest Carbon Stocks and Wood Harvest in the Contiguous United States During the 20th Century

Wildfires and land use play a central role in the long-term carbon (C) dynamics of forested ecosystems of the United States. Understanding their linkages with changes in biomass, resource use, and consumption in the context of climate change mitigation is crucial. We reconstruct a long-term C balance of forests in the contiguous U.S. using historical reports, satellite data, and other sources at multiple scales (national scale 1926-2017, regional level 1941-2017) to disentangle the drivers of biomass C stock change. The balance includes removals of forest biomass by fire, by extraction of woody biomass, by forest grazing, and by biomass stock change, their sum representing the net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Nationally, the total forest NEP increased for most of the 20th century, while fire, harvest and grazing reduced total forest stocks on average by 14%, 51%, and 6%, respectively, resulting in a net increase in C stock density of nearly 40%. Recovery from past land-use, plus reductions in wildfires and forest grazing coincide with consistent forest regrowth in the eastern U.S. but associated C stock increases were offset by increased wood harvest. C stock changes across the western U.S. fluctuated, with fire, harvest, and other disturbances (e.g., insects, droughts) reducing stocks on average by 14%, 81%, and 7%, respectively, resulting in a net growth in C stock density of 14%. Although wildfire activities increased in recent decades, harvest was the key driver in the forest C balance in all regions for most of the observed timeframe.

Multi-model assessment identifies livestock grazing as a major contributor to variation in European Union land and water footprints

Food systems are the largest users of land and water resources worldwide. Using a multi-model approach to track food through the global trade network, we calculated the land footprint (LF) and water footprint (WF) of food consumption in the European Union (EU). We estimated the EU LF as 140-222 Mha yr^-1 and WF as 569-918 km³ yr^-1. These amounts are 5-7% of the global LF and 6-10% of the global WF of agriculture, with the EU representing 6% of the global population. We also calculated the global LF of livestock grazing, accounting only for grass eaten, to be 1,411-1,657 Mha yr^-1, and the global LF of agriculture to be 2,809-3,014 Mha yr^-1, which is about two-thirds of what the Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT) database reports. We discuss here the different methods for calculating the LF for livestock grazing, underscoring the need for a consistent methodology when monitoring the food LF and WF reduction goals set by the EU's Farm To Fork Strategy.

Human appropriation of net primary production as driver of change in landscape-scale vertebrate richness

Aim

Land use is the most pervasive driver of biodiversity loss. Predicting its impact on species richness (SR) is often based on indicators of habitat loss. However, the degradation of habitats, especially through land-use intensification, also affects species. Here, we evaluate whether an integrative metric of land-use intensity, the human appropriation of net primary production, is correlated with the decline of SR in used landscapes across the globe.

Location

Global.

Time period

Present.

Major taxa studied

Birds, mammals and amphibians.

Methods

Based on species range maps (spatial resolution: 20 km × 20 km) and an area-of-habitat approach, we calibrated a "species-energy model" by correlating the SR of three groups of vertebrates with net primary production and biogeographical covariables in "wilderness" areas (i.e., those where available energy is assumed to be still at pristine levels). We used this model to project the difference between pristine SR and the SR corresponding to the energy remaining in used landscapes (i.e., SR loss expected owing to human energy extraction outside wilderness areas). We validated the projected species loss by comparison with the realized and impending loss reconstructed from habitat conversion and documented by national Red Lists.

Results

Species-energy models largely explained landscape-scale variation of mapped SR in wilderness areas (adjusted R 2-values: 0.79-0.93). Model-based projections of SR loss were lower, on average, than reconstructed and documented ones, but the spatial patterns were correlated significantly, with stronger correlation in mammals (Pearson's r = 0.68) than in amphibians (r = 0.60) and birds (r = 0.57).

Main conclusions

Our results suggest that the human appropriation of net primary production is a useful indicator of heterotrophic species loss in used landscapes, hence we recommend its inclusion in models based on species-area relationships to improve predictions of land-use-driven biodiversity loss.

Wetland functional assessment and uncertainty analysis using fuzzy α-cut-based modified hydrogeomorphic approach

Wetlands are significant ecosystems which perform several functions such as ground water recharge, flood control, carbon sequestration, and pollution reduction. Accurate evaluation of wetland functions is challenging, due to uncertainty associated with variables such as vegetation, soil, hydrology, land use, and landscape. Uncertainty is due to the factors such as the cost of evaluating quality parameters, measurement, and human errors. This study proposes an innovative framework based on modified hydrogeomorphic approach (HGMA) using fuzzy α-cut technique. HGMA has been used for wetland functional assessment and α-cut technique is used to characterize uncertainty corresponding to the input variables and wetland functions. The most uncertain variables were found to be the density of wetlands and basin count in the landscape assessment area with the scores of 4.38% and 3.614% respectively. Among the functions, the highest uncertainty is found in functional capacity index (FCI) corresponding to water storage (1.697%) and retain particulate (1.577%). The quantified uncertainty can help the practitioners to make informed decisions regarding planning best management practices for preserving and restoring the wetland functionality.

Albedo impacts of current agricultural land use: Crop-specific albedo from MODIS data and inclusion in LCA of crop production

Agricultural land use and management practices affect the global climate due to greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes and changes in land surface properties. Increased albedo has the potential to counteract the radiative forcing and warming effect of emitted GHGs. Thus considering albedo could be important to evaluate and improve agricultural systems in light of climate change, but the albedo of individual practices is usually not known. This study quantified the albedo of individual crops under regional conditions, and evaluated the importance of albedo change for the climate impact of current crop production using life cycle assessment (LCA). Seven major crops in southern Sweden were assessed relative to a land reference without cultivation, represented by semi-natural grassland. Crop-specific albedo data were obtained from a MODIS product (MCD43A1 v6), by combining its spatial response pattern with geodata on agricultural land use 2011-2020. Fluxes of GHGs were estimated using regional data and models, including production of inputs, field operations, and soil nitrogen and carbon balances. Ten-year mean albedo was 6-11% higher under the different crops than under the reference. Crop-specific albedo varied between years due to weather fluctuations, but differences between crops were largely consistent. Increased albedo countered the GHG impact from production of inputs and field operations by 17-47% measured in GWP₁₀₀, and the total climate impact was warming. Using a time-dependent metric, all crops had a net cooling impact on global mean surface temperature on shorter timescales due to albedo (3-12 years under different crops), but a net warming impact on longer timescales due to GHG emissions. The methods and data presented in this study could support increasingly comprehensive assessments of agricultural systems. Further research is needed to integrate climatic effects of land use on different spatial and temporal scales, and direct and indirect consequences from a systems perspective.

Accounting for land use changes beyond the farm-level in sustainability assessments: The impact of cocoa production

Impact assessments are used to raise evidence and guide the implementation of sustainability strategies in commodity value chains. Due to methodological and data difficulties, most assessments of agricultural commodities capture the impacts occurring at the farm-level but often dismiss or oversimplify the impacts caused by land use dynamics at larger geographic scale. In this study we analyzed the impacts of two cocoa production systems, full-sun and agroforestry, at the farm-level and beyond the farm-level. We used life cycle assessment to calculate the impacts at the farm-level and a combination of land use modelling with spatial analysis to calculate the impacts beyond the farm-level. We applied this to three different future cocoa production scenarios. The impacts at the farm-level showed that, due to lower yields, cocoa agroforestry performs worse than cocoa full-sun for most impact indicators. However, the impacts beyond the farm-level showed that promoting cocoa agroforestry in the landscape can bring the largest gains in carbon and biodiversity. A scenario analysis of the impacts at the landscape-level showed large nuances depending on the cocoa farming system adopted, market dynamics, and nature conservation policies. The analysis indicated that increasing cocoa demand does not necessarily result in negative impacts for carbon stocks and biodiversity, if sustainable land management and sustainable intensification are adopted. Landscape-level impacts can be larger than farm-level impacts or show completely opposite direction, which highlights the need to complement farm-level assessments with assessments accounting for land use dynamics beyond the farm-level.

Soybean EOS Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Their Climate Drivers in Global Major Regions

Currently, analyses related the status of soybeans, a major oil crop, as well as the related climate drivers, are based on on-site data and are generally focused on a particular country or region. This study used remote sensing, meteorological, and statistical data products to analyze spatiotemporal variations at the end of the growing season (EOS) for soybeans in the world’s major soybean-growing areas. The ridge regression estimation model calculates the average annual temperature, precipitation, and total radiation contributions to phenological changes. A systematic analysis of the spatiotemporal changes in the EOS and the associated climate drivers since the beginning of the 21st century shows the following: (1) in India, soybean EOS is later than in China and the United States. The main soybean-growing areas in the southern hemisphere are concentrated in South America, where two crops are planted yearly. (2) In most of the world’s soybean-growing regions, the rate change of the EOS is ±2 days/year. In the Mississippi River Valley, India, and South America (the first quarter), the soybean EOS is generally occurring earlier, whereas, in northeast China, it is generally occurring later. (3) The relative contributions of different meteorological factors to the soybean EOS vary between soybean-growing areas; there are also differences within the individual areas. This study provides a solid foundation for understanding the spatiotemporal changes in soybean crops in the world’s major soybean-growing areas and spatiotemporal variations in the effects of climate change on soybean EOS.

Consistency Analysis and Accuracy Assessment of Three Global Ten-Meter Land Cover Products in Rocky Desertification Region—A Case Study of Southwest China

Rocky desertification is one of the most critical ecological and environmental problems in areas underlain by carbonate rocks globally. Land cover and land use in the region affects large-scale ecosystem processes on a global scale, and many Earth system models rely on accurate land cover information. Therefore, it is important to evaluate current global land cover products and to understand the differences between them, and the findings of these studies can provide guidance to different researchers when using or making land cover products. Whereas there are many studies on the assessment of coarser resolution land cover products, there are few studies on the assessment of higher resolution land cover products (10 m). In order to provide guidance for users of 10 m data, this paper uses the rock deserted southwest region of China as the experimental area. We analyzed the consistency and accuracy of the FROM-GLC, ESA WorldCover 10 and ESRI products using spatial pattern consistency, absolute accuracy assessment of three validation samples, and analyzed their intrinsic relationships among classification systems, classification methods, and validation samples. The results show that (1) the overall accuracy of the FROM-GLC product is the highest, ranging from 49.47 to 62.42%; followed by the overall accuracy of the ESA product, ranging from 45.13 to 64.50%; and the overall accuracy of the ESRI product is the lowest, between 39.03 and 61.94%. (2) The consistency between FROM-GLC and ESA is higher than the consistency between other products, with an area correlation coefficient of 0.94. Analysis of the spatial consistency of the three products shows that the proportion of perfectly consistent areas is low at 44.89%, mainly in areas with low surface heterogeneity and more homogeneous cover types. (3) Across the study area, the main land cover types such as forest and water bodies were the most consistent across the three product species, while the grassland, shrubland, and bareland were lower. All products showed high accuracy in homogeneous areas, with local accuracy varied in other areas, especially at high altitudes in the central and western regions. Therefore, land cover users cannot use these products directly when conducting relevant studies in rocky desertification areas, as their use may introduce serious errors.

Comparison of Three Ten Meter Land Cover Products in a Drought Region: A Case Study in Northwestern China

The ecological and natural conditions in drought regions are harsh. Water shortages and land desertification are prominent features of these regions. The land cover in these regions has a large impact on global climate change, as well as on ecological protection and construction. To make rational and sustainable use of land resources, it is crucial to quickly grasp the accuracy and spatial distribution differences of multi-source remote sensing land cover products in drought regions. Therefore, taking northwestern China as the study area, in this study, the accuracy and spatial pattern distribution differences of three high-resolution (10 m) land cover products, namely, the Finer Resolution Observation and Monitoring of Global Land Cover (FROM-GLC), European Space Agency (ESA), and Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) products, were compared and analyzed via area composition similarity, spatial pattern consistency, and absolute accuracy assessment for three validation samples. The results show that the FROM-GLC product had the highest overall accuracy, ranging from 53.81% to 73.45%. The ESRI product had the lowest overall accuracy, ranging from 35.90% to 64.16%. The spatial consistencies of the three products were low, accounting for 46.26% of the total area, and they were mostly distributed in a single area (mainly bare land and forest). The low accuracy for grassland, bare land, shrubland, and other vegetation types was the primary reason for the large differences between the three products. Future research should focus on improving the mapping accuracy for these vegetation types. Accuracies for water and cropland of the three products were consistent, and, thus, the FROM-GLC, ESA, and ESRI products can be used as auxiliary data in research related to water resources and cropland resources in drought regions.

Ten facts about land systems for sustainability

Land use is central to addressing sustainability issues, including biodiversity conservation, climate change, food security, poverty alleviation, and sustainable energy. In this paper, we synthesize knowledge accumulated in land system science, the integrated study of terrestrial social-ecological systems, into 10 hard truths that have strong, general, empirical support. These facts help to explain the challenges of achieving sustainability in land use and thus also point toward solutions. The 10 facts are as follows: 1) Meanings and values of land are socially constructed and contested; 2) land systems exhibit complex behaviors with abrupt, hard-to-predict changes; 3) irreversible changes and path dependence are common features of land systems; 4) some land uses have a small footprint but very large impacts; 5) drivers and impacts of land-use change are globally interconnected and spill over to distant locations; 6) humanity lives on a used planet where all land provides benefits to societies; 7) land-use change usually entails trade-offs between different benefits-"win-wins" are thus rare; 8) land tenure and land-use claims are often unclear, overlapping, and contested; 9) the benefits and burdens from land are unequally distributed; and 10) land users have multiple, sometimes conflicting, ideas of what social and environmental justice entails. The facts have implications for governance, but do not provide fixed answers. Instead they constitute a set of core principles which can guide scientists, policy makers, and practitioners toward meeting sustainability challenges in land use.

Relative effects of land conversion and land-use intensity on terrestrial vertebrate diversity

Land-use has transformed ecosystems over three quarters of the terrestrial surface, with massive repercussions on biodiversity. Land-use intensity is known to contribute to the effects of land-use on biodiversity, but the magnitude of this contribution remains uncertain. Here, we use a modified countryside species-area model to compute a global account of the impending biodiversity loss caused by current land-use patterns, explicitly addressing the role of land-use intensity based on two sets of intensity indicators. We find that land-use entails the loss of ~15% of terrestrial vertebrate species from the average 5 × 5 arcmin-landscape outside remaining wilderness areas and ~14% of their average native area-of-habitat, with a risk of global extinction for 556 individual species. Given the large fraction of global land currently used under low land-use intensity, we find its contribution to biodiversity loss to be substantial (~25%). While both sets of intensity indicators yield similar global average results, we find regional differences between them and discuss data gaps. Our results support calls for improved sustainable intensification strategies and demand-side actions to reduce trade-offs between food security and biodiversity conservation.

Small-scale agricultural grassland management can affect soil fungal community structure as much as continental scale geographic patterns

A European transect was established, ranging from Sweden to the Azores, to determine the relative influence of geographic factors and agricultural small-scale management on the grassland soil microbiome. Within each of five countries (factor ‘Country’), which maximized a range of geographic factors, two differing growth condition regions (factor ‘GCR’) were selected: a favorable region with conditions allowing for high plant biomass production and a contrasting less favorable region with a markedly lower potential. Within each region, grasslands of contrasting management intensities (factor ‘MI’) were defined: intensive and extensive, from which soil samples were collected. Across the transect, ‘MI’ was a strong differentiator of fungal community structure, having a comparable effect to continental scale geographic factors (‘Country’). ‘MI’ was also a highly significant driver of bacterial community structure, but ‘Country’ was clearly the stronger driver. For both, ‘GCR’ was the weakest driver. Also at the regional level, strong effects of MI occurred on various measures of the soil microbiome (i.e. OTU richness, management-associated indicator OTUs), though the effects were largely regional-specific. Our results illustrate the decisive influence of grassland MI on soil microbial community structure, over both regional and continental scales, and, thus, highlight the importance of preserving rare extensive grasslands.

The role of soil in the contribution of food and feed

Soils play a critical role in the production of food and feed for a growing global population. Here, we review global patterns in soil characteristics, agricultural production and the fate of embedded soil nutrients. Nitrogen- and organic-rich soils supported the highest crop yields, yet the efficiency of nutrient utilization was concentrated in regions with lower crop productivity and lower rates of chemical fertilizer inputs. Globally, soil resources were concentrated in animal feed, resulting in large inefficiencies in nutrient utilization and losses from the food system. Intercontinental transport of soil-derived nutrients displaced millions of tonnes of nitrogen and phosphorus annually, much of which was ultimately concentrated in urban waste streams. Approximately 40% of the global agricultural land area was in small farms providing over 50% of the world's food and feed needs but yield gaps and economic constraints limit the ability to intensify production on these lands. To better use and protect soil resources in the global food system, policies and actions should encourage shifts to more nutrient-efficient diets, strategic intensification and technological improvement, restoration and maintenance of soil fertility and stability, and enhanced resilience in the face of global change. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of soils in delivering Nature's Contributions to People'.

Quantifying and attributing land use-induced carbon emissions to biomass consumption: A critical assessment of existing approaches

Biomass production generates land use impacts in the form of emissions from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU), i.e. due to changes in ecosystem carbon stocks. Recently, consumption-based accounting (CBA) approaches have emerged as alternatives to conventional production-based accounts, quantifying FOLU emissions associated with biomass consumption, for example, of particular territories. However, the quantification and allocation of FOLU emissions to individual biomass products, a fundamental part of CBA approaches, is a complex endeavour. Existing studies make diverging methodological choices, which are rarely critically discussed. In this study, we provide a structured overview of existing CBA approaches to estimating FOLU emissions. We cluster the literature in a two-by-two grid, distinguishing the primary element under investigation (impacts of changing consumption patterns in a region vs. impacts of consumption on production landscapes) and the analytical lens (prospective vs retrospective). Further, we identify three distinct dimensions which characterise the way in which different studies allocate FOLU emissions to biomass products: the choice of reference system and the spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we identify three frontiers that require future attention: (1) overcoming structural biases which underestimate FOLU emissions from territories that experienced deforestation in the distant past, (2) explicitly tackling the interdependence of proximate causes and ultimate drivers of land use change, and (3) assessing uncertainties and understanding the effects of land management. In this way, we enable a critical assessment of appropriate methods, support a nuanced interpretation of results from particular approaches as well as enhance the informative value of CBA approaches related to FOLU emissions. Our analysis contributes to discussions on sustainable land use practices with respect to biomass consumption and has implications for informing international climate policy in scenarios where consumption-based approaches are adopted in practice.

Vegetation response to climate zone dynamics and its impacts on surface soil water content and albedo in China

Extensive research has focused on the response of vegetation to climate change, including potential mechanisms and resulting impacts. Although many studies have explored the relationship between vegetation and climate change in China, research on spatiotemporal distribution changes of climate regimes using natural vegetation as an indicator is still lacking. Further, limited information is available on the response of vegetation to shifts in China's regional climatic zones. In this study, we applied Mann-Kendall, and correlation analysis to examine the variabilities in temperature, precipitation, surface soil water, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), and albedo in China from 1982 to 2012. Our results indicate significant shifts in the distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate classes in China from 12.08% to 18.98% between 1983 and 2012 at a significance level of 0.05 (MK). The percentage areas in the arid and continental zones expanded at a rate of 0.004%/y and 0.12%/y, respectively, while the percentage area in the temperate and alpine zones decreased by -0.05%/y and - 0.07%/y. Sensitivity fitting results between simulated and observed changes identified temperature to be a dominant control on the dynamics of temperate (r² = 0.98) and alpine (r² = 0.968) zones, while precipitation was the dominant control on the changes of arid (r² = 0.856) and continental (r² = 0.815) zones. The response of the NDVI to albedo infers a more pronounced radiative response in temperate (r = -0.82, p < .01) and alpine (r = -0.476, p < .05) compared to arid and continental zones. Furthermore, we identified more pronounced monthly increasing trends in NDVI and soil water, corresponding to weak changes in albedo during vegetation growing periods. Our results suggest that climate zone shifting has considerable impacts on the vegetation in China and will have larger ecological impacts through radiative or non-radiative feedback mechanisms in future warming scenarios.

Anthropogenic modification of forests means only 40% of remaining forests have high ecosystem integrity

Many global environmental agendas, including halting biodiversity loss, reversing land degradation, and limiting climate change, depend upon retaining forests with high ecological integrity, yet the scale and degree of forest modification remain poorly quantified and mapped. By integrating data on observed and inferred human pressures and an index of lost connectivity, we generate a globally consistent, continuous index of forest condition as determined by the degree of anthropogenic modification. Globally, only 17.4 million km² of forest (40.5%) has high landscape-level integrity (mostly found in Canada, Russia, the Amazon, Central Africa, and New Guinea) and only 27% of this area is found in nationally designated protected areas. Of the forest inside protected areas, only 56% has high landscape-level integrity. Ambitious policies that prioritize the retention of forest integrity, especially in the most intact areas, are now urgently needed alongside current efforts aimed at halting deforestation and restoring the integrity of forests globally.

Mapping and quantifying degree of forest modification is critical to conserve and manage forests. Here the authors propose a new quantitative metric for landscape integrity and apply it to a global forest map, showing that less than half of the world’s forest cover has high integrity, most of which is outside nationally designed protected areas.

The Impact of Accounting for Future Wood Production in Global Vertebrate Biodiversity Assessments

Forests are among the most species rich habitats and the way they are managed influences their capacity to protect biodiversity. To fulfill increasing wood demands in the future, planted and non-planted wood production will need to expand. While biodiversity assessments usually focus on the impacts of deforestation, the effects of wood harvest are mostly not considered, especially not in a spatially explicit manner. We present here a global approach to refine the representation of forest management through allocating future wood production to planted and non-planted forests. Wood production, following wood consumption projections of three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, was allocated using likelihood maps for planted and production forests. On a global scale, plantations for wood production were projected to increase by 45-65% and harvested area in non-planted forests by 1-17%. The biodiversity impacts of changes in wood production patterns were estimated by applying two commonly used indicators: (1) changes in species richness and (2) changes in habitat-suitable ranges of single species. The impact was analyzed using forest cover changes as reference. Our results show that, although forest cover changes have the largest impact on biodiversity, changes in wood production also have a significant effect. The magnitude of impacts caused by changes of wood production substantially differs by region and taxa. Given the importance of forest production changes in net negative emission pathways, more focus should be put on assessing the effects of future changes in wood production patterns as part of overall land use change impacts.

Global human influence maps reveal clear opportunities in conserving Earth's remaining intact terrestrial ecosystems

Leading up to the Convention on Biological Diversity Conference of the Parties 15, there is momentum around setting bold conservation targets. Yet, it remains unclear how much of Earth's land area remains without significant human influence and where this land is located. We compare four recent global maps of human influences across Earth's land, Anthromes, Global Human Modification, Human Footprint and Low Impact Areas, to answer these questions. Despite using various methodologies and data, these different spatial assessments independently estimate similar percentages of the Earth's terrestrial surface as having very low (20%-34%) and low (48%-56%) human influence. Three out of four spatial assessments agree on 46% of the non-permanent ice- or snow-covered land as having low human influence. However, much of the very low and low influence portions of the planet are comprised of cold (e.g., boreal forests, montane grasslands and tundra) or arid (e.g., deserts) landscapes. Only four biomes (boreal forests, deserts, temperate coniferous forests and tundra) have a majority of datasets agreeing that at least half of their area has very low human influence. More concerning, <1% of temperate grasslands, tropical coniferous forests and tropical dry forests have very low human influence across most datasets, and tropical grasslands, mangroves and montane grasslands also have <1% of land identified as very low influence across all datasets. These findings suggest that about half of Earth's terrestrial surface has relatively low human influence and offers opportunities for proactive conservation actions to retain the last intact ecosystems on the planet. However, though the relative abundance of ecosystem areas with low human influence varies widely by biome, conserving these last intact areas should be a high priority before they are completely lost.

Consistency Analysis of Remote Sensing Land Cover Products in the Tropical Rainforest Climate Region: A Case Study of Indonesia

Land cover changes in tropical rainforest climate zones play an important role in global climate change and the functioning of the Earth’s natural system. Existing research on the consistency of different land cover products has mainly focused on administrative divisions (continental or national scales). However, the ongoing production of large regional or global land cover products with higher resolutions requires us to have a better grasp of confusing land types and their geographical locations for different zoning (e.g., geographical zoning) in order to guide the optimization of strategies such as zoning and sample selection in automated land cover classification. Therefore, we selected the GlobeLand30-2010, GLC_FCS30-2015, and FROM_GLC2015 global land cover products with a 30-m resolution covering Indonesia, which has a tropical rainforest climate, as a case study, and then analyzed these products in terms of areal consistency, spatial consistency, and accuracy evaluation. The results revealed that (a) all three land cover products revealed that forest is the main land cover type in Indonesia. The area correlation coefficient of any two products is better than 0.89; (b) the areas that are completely consistent among the three products account for 58% of the total area of Indonesia, mainly distributed in the central and northern parts of Kalimantan and Papua, which are dominated by forest land types. The spatial consistency of the three products is low, however, due to the complex surface types and staggered distributions of grassland, shrub, cultivated land, artificial surface, and other land cover types in Java, eastern Sumatra, and the eastern, southern, and northwestern sections of Kalimantan, where the elevation is less than 200 m. Given these results, land cover producers should take heed of the classification accuracy of these areas; (c) the absolute accuracy evaluation demonstrated that the GLC_FCS30-2015 product has the highest overall accuracy (65.59%), followed by the overall accuracy of the GlobeLand30-2010 product (61.65%), while the FROM_GLC2015 exhibits the lowest overall accuracy (57.71%). The mapping accuracy of the three products is higher for forests and artificial surfaces. The cropland mapping accuracy of the GLC_FCS30-2015 product is higher than those of the other two products. The mapping accuracy of all products is low for grassland, shrubland, bareland, and wetland. The classification accuracy of these land cover types requires further improvement and cannot be used directly by land cover users when conducting relevant research in tropical rainforest climate zones, since the utilization of these products could lead to serious errors.

Investigating the effects of management practice on mammalian co-occurrence along the West Coast of South Africa

The subtle and cascading effects (e.g., altered interspecific interactions) that anthropogenic stressors have on local ecological assemblages often go unnoticed but are concerning given their importance in ecosystem function. For example, elimination of buffalo from the Serengeti National Park is suggested to have driven increased abundance of smaller antelope as a result of release from competition. The perceived low abundance of small antelope in the contractual Postberg section of the West Coast National Park (the park) has been an ongoing management concern which has been anecdotally attributed to predation by a mesopredator (the caracal, Caracal caracal). However, we hypothesized that the historical overstocking, and consequent overgrazing by larger-bodied managed ungulates would influence small antelope abundance. Using camera traps, we investigated species co-occurrence and temporal activity between small antelope, managed ungulates and caracals in Postberg as well as another part of the park (Langebaan) and a farm outside of the park. Results suggest that small antelope and managed ungulates have a high degree of temporal overlap (Δ = 0.74, 0.79 and 0.86 for the farm, Langebaan and Postberg respectively), while temporal partitioning between small antelope and caracal is apparent (Δ = 0.59). Further, small antelope and managed ungulates appear to occur independently of one another (SIF = 0.91-1 across areas). Managed ungulates were detected almost three times more frequently on fallow lands when compared to the more vegetated sites within the park suggesting that segregated food/cover resources allow for independent occurrence. Small antelope had a much higher probability of occurrence outside of the protected area (e.g., ψ = 0.192 and 0.486 for steenbok at Postberg, Langebaan compared to 0.841 on the farm), likely due to less variable (more intact) habitat outside of the protected area. There is not sufficient evidence to currently warrant management intervention for predators. The small size of the protected area provides limited scope for spatial replication thus reducing possibilities to infer the cause and effect for complex interactions (which would historically have taken place over much larger areas) with negative implications for adaptive management. We recommend continued monitoring over multiple seasons and a wider area to determine the spatial information requirements to inform management of small protected areas.

Revolutionizing Towards Sustainable Agricultural Systems: The Role of Energy

Innovations play a significant role in the primary sector (i.e., agriculture, fisheries and forestry), ensuring a greater performance towards bioeconomy and sustainability. Innovation is being progressively applied to examining the organization of joint technological, social, and institutional modernizations in the primary sector. Exploring the governance of actor relations, potential policies, and support structures is crucial in the phase of innovation, e.g., during research activities, often applied at the national or sectorial scale. However, when opposing normative guidelines for alternative systems of agriculture arise (e.g., the industrial agriculture paradigm), modernizations in agricultural and forestry may contribute to outlining more sustainable systems. To date, innovations in the primary sector do not seem as advanced as in other sectors, apart from industrial agriculture, which sometimes appears to be the most encouraged. The present review aims to shed light on innovations that have been identified and promoted in recent years in the primary sector, including agriculture and forestry. The need to pursue sustainable development in this sector requires the inclusion of a fourth dimension, namely energy. In fact, energy sustainability is an issue that has been much discussed in recent years. However, the need for progressive technological progress is indispensable to ensure long-lasting energy efficiency. The aim is to understand what innovations have been implemented recently, highlighting opportunities and limitations for the primary sector.

Microbial spatial footprint as a driver of soil carbon stabilization

Increasing the potential of soil to store carbon (C) is an acknowledged and emphasized strategy for capturing atmospheric CO₂. Well-recognized approaches for soil C accretion include reducing soil disturbance, increasing plant biomass inputs, and enhancing plant diversity. Yet experimental evidence often fails to support anticipated C gains, suggesting that our integrated understanding of soil C accretion remains insufficient. Here we use a unique combination of X-ray micro-tomography and micro-scale enzyme mapping to demonstrate for the first time that plant-stimulated soil pore formation appears to be a major, hitherto unrecognized, determinant of whether new C inputs are stored or lost to the atmosphere. Unlike monocultures, diverse plant communities favor the development of 30–150 µm pores. Such pores are the micro-environments associated with higher enzyme activities, and greater abundance of such pores translates into a greater spatial footprint that microorganisms make on the soil and consequently soil C storage capacity.

The processes driving soil carbon accretion remain to be poorly understood. Here the authors combined X-ray micro-tomography and zymography to demonstrate that plant-stimulated soil pore formation is a major, hitherto unrecognized, determinant of whether new C inputs are stored or lost to the atmosphere.

Trade-offs in using European forests to meet climate objectives

The Paris Agreement promotes forest management as a pathway towards halting climate warming through the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions¹. However, the climate benefits from carbon sequestration through forest management may be reinforced, counteracted or even offset by concurrent management-induced changes in surface albedo, land-surface roughness, emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, transpiration and sensible heat flux^2-4. Consequently, forest management could offset CO₂ emissions without halting global temperature rise. It therefore remains to be confirmed whether commonly proposed sustainable European forest-management portfolios would comply with the Paris Agreement-that is, whether they can reduce the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂, reduce the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere, and neither increase the near-surface air temperature nor decrease precipitation by the end of the twenty-first century. Here we show that the portfolio made up of management systems that locally maximize the carbon sink through carbon sequestration, wood use and product and energy substitution reduces the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂, but does not meet any of the other criteria. The portfolios that maximize the carbon sink or forest albedo pass only one-different in each case-criterion. Managing the European forests with the objective of reducing near-surface air temperature, on the other hand, will also reduce the atmospheric CO₂ growth rate, thus meeting two of the four criteria. Trade-off are thus unavoidable when using European forests to meet climate objectives. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that if present-day forest cover is sustained, the additional climate benefits achieved through forest management would be modest and local, rather than global. On the basis of these findings, we argue that Europe should not rely on forest management to mitigate climate change. The modest climate effects from changes in forest management imply, however, that if adaptation to future climate were to require large-scale changes in species composition and silvicultural systems over Europe^5,6, the forests could be adapted to climate change with neither positive nor negative  climate effects.

Modelled biophysical impacts of conservation agriculture on local climates

Including the parameterization of land management practices into Earth System Models has been shown to influence the simulation of regional climates, particularly for temperature extremes. However, recent model development has focused on implementing irrigation where other land management practices such as conservation agriculture (CA) has been limited due to the lack of global spatially explicit datasets describing where this form of management is practiced. Here, we implement a representation of CA into the Community Earth System Model and show that the quality of simulated surface energy fluxes improves when including more information on how agricultural land is managed. We also compare the climate response at the subgrid scale where CA is applied. We find that CA generally contributes to local cooling (~1°C) of hot temperature extremes in mid-latitude regions where it is practiced, while over tropical locations CA contributes to local warming (~1°C) due to changes in evapotranspiration dominating the effects of enhanced surface albedo. In particular, changes in the partitioning of evapotranspiration between soil evaporation and transpiration are critical for the sign of the temperature change: a cooling occurs only when the soil moisture retention and associated enhanced transpiration is sufficient to offset the warming from reduced soil evaporation. Finally, we examine the climate change mitigation potential of CA by comparing a simulation with present-day CA extent to a simulation where CA is expanded to all suitable crop areas. Here, our results indicate that while the local temperature response to CA is considerable cooling (>2°C), the grid-scale changes in climate are counteractive due to negative atmospheric feedbacks. Overall, our results underline that CA has a nonnegligible impact on the local climate and that it should therefore be considered in future climate projections.

A spatially explicit representation of conservation agriculture for application in global change studies

Conservation agriculture (CA) is widely promoted as a sustainable agricultural management strategy with the potential to alleviate some of the adverse effects of modern, industrial agriculture such as large-scale soil erosion, nutrient leaching and overexploitation of water resources. Moreover, agricultural land managed under CA is proposed to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation through reduced emission of greenhouse gases, increased solar radiation reflection, and the sustainable use of soil and water resources. Due to the lack of official reporting schemes, the amount of agricultural land managed under CA systems is uncertain and spatially explicit information about the distribution of CA required for various modeling studies is missing. Here, we present an approach to downscale present-day national-level estimates of CA to a 5 arcminute regular grid, based on multicriteria analysis. We provide a best estimate of CA distribution and an uncertainty range in the form of a low and high estimate of CA distribution, reflecting the inconsistency in CA definitions. We also design two scenarios of the potential future development of CA combining present-day data and an assessment of the potential for implementation using biophysical and socioeconomic factors. By our estimates, 122-215 Mha or 9%-15% of global arable land is currently managed under CA systems. The lower end of the range represents CA as an integrated system of permanent no-tillage, crop residue management and crop rotations, while the high estimate includes a wider range of areas primarily devoted to temporary no-tillage or reduced tillage operations. Our scenario analysis suggests a future potential of CA in the range of 533-1130 Mha (38%-81% of global arable land). Our estimates can be used in various ecosystem modeling applications and are expected to help identifying more realistic climate mitigation and adaptation potentials of agricultural practices.

Implications of accounting for management intensity on carbon and nitrogen balances of European grasslands

European managed grasslands are amongst the most productive in the world. Besides temperature and the amount and timing of precipitation, grass production is also highly controlled by applications of nitrogen fertilizers and land management to sustain a high productivity. Since management characteristics of pastures vary greatly across Europe, land-use intensity and their projections are critical input variables in earth system modeling when examining and predicting the effects of increasingly intensified agricultural and livestock systems on the environment. In this study, we aim to improve the representation of pastures in the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. This is done by incorporating daily carbon allocation for grasses as a foundation to further implement daily land management routines and land-use intensity data into the model to discriminate between intensively and extensively used regions. We further compare our new simulations with leaf area index observations, reported regional grassland productivity, and simulations conducted with the vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM. Additionally, we analyze the implications of including pasture fertilization and daily management compared to the standard version of LPJ-GUESS. Our results demonstrate that grassland productivity cannot be adequately captured without including land-use intensity data in form of nitrogen applications. Using this type of information improved spatial patterns of grassland productivity significantly compared to standard LPJ-GUESS. In general, simulations for net primary productivity, net ecosystem carbon balance and nitrogen leaching were considerably increased in the extended version. Finally, the adapted version of LPJ-GUESS, driven with projections of climate and land-use intensity, simulated an increase in potential grassland productivity until 2050 for several agro-climatic regions, most notably for the Mediterranean North, the Mediterranean South, the Atlantic Central and the Atlantic South.

Modelling Land Sharing and Land Sparing Relationship with Rural Population in the Cerrado

Agricultural expansion and intensification enabled growth of food production but resulted in serious environmental changes. In light of that, debates concerning sustainability in agriculture arises on scientific literature. Land sharing and land sparing are two opposite models for framing agricultural sustainability. The first aims to integrate agricultural activities with biodiversity conservation by means of enhancing the quality of the agricultural matrix in the landscape towards a wildlife friendly matrix. The other model aims to spare natural habitats from agriculture for conservation. This work aimed to explore spatial evidences of land sharing/sparing and its relationship with rural population in the Brazilian Cerrado. A Land Sharing/Sparing Index based on TerraClass Cerrado map was proposed. Spatial analysis based on Global and Local Moran statistics and Geographically Weighted Regression were made in order to explore the influence of local rural population on the probability of spatial land sharing/sparing clusters occurrence. Spatial patterns of land sharing were found in the Cerrado and a positive association with rural population was found in some regions, such as in its northern portion. Land use policies should consider regional infrastructural and participative governance potentialities. The results suggests possible areas where joint agricultural activities and human presence may be favourable for biodiversity conservation.

Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities in implementing land management in Earth system models

As the applications of Earth system models (ESMs) move from general climate projections toward questions of mitigation and adaptation, the inclusion of land management practices in these models becomes crucial. We carried out a survey among modeling groups to show an evolution from models able only to deal with land-cover change to more sophisticated approaches that allow also for the partial integration of land management changes. For the longer term a comprehensive land management representation can be anticipated for all major models. To guide the prioritization of implementation, we evaluate ten land management practices-forestry harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, crop harvest, crop species selection, irrigation, wetland drainage, fertilization, tillage, and fire-for (1) their importance on the Earth system, (2) the possibility of implementing them in state-of-the-art ESMs, and (3) availability of required input data. Matching these criteria, we identify "low-hanging fruits" for the inclusion in ESMs, such as basic implementations of crop and forestry harvest and fertilization. We also identify research requirements for specific communities to address the remaining land management practices. Data availability severely hampers modeling the most extensive land management practice, grazing and mowing harvest, and is a limiting factor for a comprehensive implementation of most other practices. Inadequate process understanding hampers even a basic assessment of crop species selection and tillage effects. The need for multiple advanced model structures will be the challenge for a comprehensive implementation of most practices but considerable synergy can be gained using the same structures for different practices. A continuous and closer collaboration of the modeling, Earth observation, and land system science communities is thus required to achieve the inclusion of land management in ESMs.

Prediction of biodiversity hotspots in the Anthropocene: The case of veteran oaks

Over the past centuries, humans have transformed large parts of the biosphere, and there is a growing need to understand and predict the distribution of biodiversity hotspots influenced by the presence of humans. Our basic hypothesis is that human influence in the Anthropocene is ubiquitous, and we predict that biodiversity hot spot modeling can be improved by addressing three challenges raised by the increasing ecological influence of humans: (i) anthropogenically modified responses to individual ecological factors, (ii) fundamentally different processes and predictors in landscape types shaped by different land use histories and (iii) a multitude and complexity of natural and anthropogenic processes that may require many predictors and even multiple models in different landscape types. We modeled the occurrence of veteran oaks in Norway, and found, in accordance with our basic hypothesis and predictions, that humans influence the distribution of veteran oaks throughout its range, but in different ways in forests and open landscapes. In forests, geographical and topographic variables related to the oak niche are still important, but the occurrence of veteran oaks is shifted toward steeper slopes, where logging is difficult. In open landscapes, land cover variables are more important, and veteran oaks are more common toward the north than expected from the fundamental oak niche. In both landscape types, multiple predictor variables representing ecological and human‐influenced processes were needed to build a good model, and several models performed almost equally well. Models accounting for the different anthropogenic influences on landscape structure and processes consistently performed better than models based exclusively on natural biogeographical and ecological predictors. Thus, our results for veteran oaks clearly illustrate the challenges to distribution modeling raised by the ubiquitous influence of humans, even in a moderately populated region, but also show that predictions can be improved by explicitly addressing these anthropogenic complexities.

Social and biophysical variation in regional timber harvest regimes

In terms of adult tree mortality, harvesting is the most prevalent disturbance in northeastern United States forests. Previous studies have demonstrated that stand structure and tree species composition are important predictors of harvest. We extend this work to investigate how social factors further influence harvest regimes. By coupling the Forest Inventory and Analysis database to U.S. Census and National Woodland Owner Survey (NWOS) data, we quantify social and biophysical variation in the frequency and intensity of harvesting throughout a 20-state region in the northeastern United States. Among social factors, ownership class is most predictive of harvest frequency and intensity. The annual probability of a harvest event within privately owned forest (3%/yr) is twice as high as within publicly owned forests (1.5%/yr). Among private owner classes, the annual harvest probability on corporate-owned forests (3.6%/yr) is 25% higher than on private woodlands (2.9%/yr). Among public owner classes, the annual probability of harvest is highest on municipally owned forests (2.4%/ yr), followed by state-owned forests (1.6%/yr), and is lowest on federal forests (1%/yr). In contrast, corporate, state, and municipal forests all have similar distributions of harvest intensity; the median percentage of basal area removed during harvest events is approximately 40% in these three owner groups. Federal forests are similar to private woodlands with median harvest intensities of 23% and 20%, respectively. Social context variables, including local home prices, population density and the distance to a road, help explain the intensity, but not the frequency, of harvesting. Private woodlands constitute the majority of forest area; however, demographic data about their owners (e.g., their age, educational attainment, length of land tenure, retired status) show little relationship to aggregate harvest behavior. Instead, significant predictors for harvesting on private woodlands include live-tree basal area, forest type, and distance from roads. Just as with natural disturbance regimes, harvest regimes are predictable in terms of their frequency, intensity, and dispersion; and like their natural counterparts, these variables are determined by several important dimensions of environmental context. But in contrast to natural disturbance regimes, the important dimensions of context for harvesting include a combination of social and biophysical variables.

Influence of Land-Use Intensification on Vegetation C-Stocks in an Alpine Valley from 1865 to 2003

The role of ecosystems as carbon (C) sinks or sources is intrinsically related to land-use intensity, which determines the land required for biomass production. Here, we systematically investigate the role of different land-use types including their land-use intensities on vegetation C-stocks (SC_act) in the Stubai valley, located in the Austrian central Alps. After a period of high land-use impacts until 1954, indicated by massive C-depletion, land-use shifted to completely new courses. Polarization into high-intensity low-land areas and extensification at higher altitudes allowed for a tripling of SC_act until 2003. The most important land-use change was the intensification of the livestock sector accompanied by abandonment of extensive grasslands and reduced harvest pressure on forests after WWII. Market integration, abundance of fossil energy carriers, as well as structural change of the economy were important underlying socio-economic drivers of these trends. However, despite this remarkable SC_act increase, SC_act amounted to only 62% of the potential carbon stocks (SC_pot) in 2003. Although conversion of forests to agriculture clearly contributed the lion’s share to this SC-gap, forest management explains roughly one quarter of the SC-difference. We found that time-lags between land-use shifts and the establishment of a new C-climax had fundamental repercussions on recent C-dynamics in the study region. Apparently, the land system is still net-accumulating C, although land-use changes have peaked decades earlier. Our findings are crucial for the understanding of C-dynamics, including the role of land management and time-lags in mountainous regions, which are regarded key areas for terrestrial C-sequestration.