Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic

Shrinking suitable habitat of a sub-Arctic foundation kelp under future climate scenarios

Climate change has profound effects on the distribution of kelp forests in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. However, studies on the responses of kelps to climate change, particularly along the sub-Arctic regions of the Alaska coast, are limited. Eualaria fistulosa is a foundational kelp species in the Aleutian Islands, with an east-west distribution that extends from Japan to southern southwest Alaska. In this study, we utilized a species distribution model (SDM) to explore changes in the future habitat suitability of E. fistulosa under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our model exhibited relatively high predictive performance, validating our SDM predictions. Notably, the SDM results indicate that minimum sea surface temperature, annual range in sea surface temperatures, and annual mean current velocities are the three most important predictor variables determining E. fistulosa's distribution. Furthermore, the projected geographic distribution of Eualaria is generally consistent with its observed occurrence records. However, under high emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), E. fistulosa is predicted to contract its distribution range by 9.0% by 2100, with widespread disappearance along the southeast Alaskan coast and limited northward migration to Kamchatka Krai in Russia and Bristol Bay in Alaska. These findings contribute valuable insights for conservation strategies via addressing climate-induced alterations in sub-Arctic kelp distribution.

Photoperiod and temperature interactions drive the latitudinal distribution of Laminaria hyperborea (Laminariales, Phaeophyceae) under climate change

Due to global rises in temperature, recent studies predict marine species shifting toward higher latitudes. We investigated the impact of interacting abiotic drivers on the distribution potential of the temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea. The ecosystem engineering species is widespread along European coasts but has not yet been observed in the High Arctic, although it can survive several months of low temperatures and darkness. To investigate its ability to extend northward in future, we conducted a long-term multifactorial experiment with sporophytes from Porsangerfjorden, Norway-close to the species' documented northernmost distribution margin. The samples were exposed to three different photoperiods (PolarDay, LongDay, and PolarNight) at 0°C, 5°C, and 10°C for 3 months. Optimum quantum yield of photosynthesis (Fv/Fm), dry weight, pigments, phlorotannins, and storage carbohydrates were monitored. Both physiological and biochemical parameters revealed that L. hyperborea was strongly influenced by the different photoperiods and their interaction with temperature, while temperature alone exerted only minor effects. The Fv/Fm data were integrated into a species distribution model to project a possible northward expansion of L. hyperborea. The combination of extended day lengths and low temperatures appeared to be the limiting reason for northward spread of L. hyperborea until recently. However, with water temperatures reaching 10°C in summer, this kelp will be able to thrive also in the High Arctic. Moreover, no evidence of stress to Arctic winter warming was observed. Consequently, L. hyperborea has a high potential for spreading northward with further warming which may significantly affect the structure and function of Arctic ecosystems.

Genomic architecture and population structure of Boreogadus saida from Canadian waters

The polar cod, Boreogadus saida, is an abundant and ubiquitous forage fish and a crucial link in Arctic marine trophic dynamics. Our objective was to unravel layers of genomic structure in B. saida from Canadian waters, specifically screening for potential hybridization with the Arctic cod, Arctogadus glacialis, large chromosomal inversions, and sex-linked regions, prior to interpreting population structure. Our analysis of 53,384 SNPs in 522 individuals revealed hybridization and introgression between A. glacialis and B. saida. Subsequent population level analyses of B. saida using 12,305 SNPs in 511 individuals revealed three large (ca. 7.4-16.1 Mbp) chromosomal inversions, and a 2 Mbp region featuring sex-linked loci. We showcase population structuring across the Western and Eastern North American Arctic, and subarctic regions ranging from the Hudson Bay to the Canadian Atlantic maritime provinces. Genomic signal for the inferred population structure was highly aggregated into a handful of SNPs (13.8%), pointing to potentially important adaptive evolution across the Canadian range. Our study provides a high-resolution perspective on the genomic structure of B. saida, providing a foundation for work that could be expanded to the entire circumpolar range for the species.

The structure and diversity of macroinvertebrate assemblages associated with the understudied pseudo-kelp Saccorhiza polyschides in the Western English Channel (UK)

We examined spatiotemporal variability in the structure of faunal assemblages associated with the warm-temperate pseudo-kelp Saccorhiza polyschides towards its range centre (Western English Channel, southwest UK), to better understand its role as a habitat-former in the northeast Atlantic. A total of 180 sporophytes and their associated fauna were sampled across three months, three sites, and two depths. Assemblage abundance and biomass varied markedly between three morpho-functional sporophyte components (i.e., holdfast, stipe, blade). We recorded rich and abundant macroinvertebrate assemblages, comprising nine phyla, 28 coarse taxonomic groups, and 57 species of molluscs, which consistently dominated assemblages. We observed pronounced seasonality in faunal assemblage structure, marked variability between sites and depths, and strong positive relationships between biogenic habitat availability and faunal abundance/biomass. S. polyschides sporophytes are short-lived and offer temporary, less-stable habitat compared with dominant perennial Laminaria species, so shifts in the relative abundances of habitat-formers will likely alter local biodiversity patterns.

Cryptic diversity in southern African kelp

The southern coast of Africa is one of the few places in the world where water temperatures are predicted to cool in the future. This endemism-rich coastline is home to two sister species of kelps of the genus Ecklonia maxima and Ecklonia radiata, each associated with specific thermal niches, and occuring primarily on opposite sides of the southern tip of Africa. Historical distribution records indicate that E. maxima has recently shifted its distribution ~ 70 km eastward, to sites where only E. radiata was previously reported. The contact of sister species with contrasting thermal affinities and the occurrence of mixed morphologies raised the hypothesis that hybridization might be occurring in this contact zone. Here we describe the genetic structure of the genus Ecklonia along the southern coast of Africa and investigate potential hybridization and cryptic diversity using a combination of nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial markers. We found that both species have geographically discrete genetic clusters, consistent with expected phylogeographic breaks along this coastline. In addition, depth-isolated populations were found to harbor unique genetic diversity, including a third Ecklonia lineage. Mito-nuclear discordance and high genetic divergence in the contact zones suggest multiple hybridization events between Ecklonia species. Discordance between morphological and molecular identification suggests the potential influence of abiotic factors leading to convergent phenotypes in the contact zones. Our results highlight an example of cryptic diversity and hybridization driven by contact between two closely related keystone species with contrasting thermal affinities.

Projecting kelp (Ecklonia radiata) gametophyte thermal adaptation and persistence under climate change

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Kelp forests underpin temperate marine ecosystems but are declining due to ocean warming, causing loss of associated ecosystem services. Projections suggest significant future decline but often only consider the persistence of adult sporophytes. Kelps have a biphasic life cycle, and the haploid gametophyte can be more thermally tolerant than the sporophyte. Therefore, projections may be altered when considering the thermal tolerance of gametophytes.

METHODS

We undertook thermal tolerance experiments to quantify the effect of temperature on gametophyte survival, relative growth rate (RGR) and sex ratio for three genetically distinct populations of Ecklonia radiata gametophytes from comparatively high, mid- and low latitudes (43°, 33° and 30°S). We then used these data to project the likely consequences of climate-induced thermal change on gametophyte persistence and performance across its eastern Australian range, using generalized additive and linear models.

KEY RESULTS

All populations were adapted to local temperatures and their thermal maximum was 2-3 °C above current maximum in situ temperatures. The lowest latitude population was most thermally tolerant (~70 % survival up to 27 °C), while survival and RGR decreased beyond 25.5 and 20.5 °C for the mid- and low-latitude populations, respectively. Sex ratios were skewed towards females with increased temperature in the low- and high-latitude populations. Spatially explicit model projections under future ocean warming (2050-centred) revealed a minimal decline in survival (0-30 %) across populations, relative to present-day predictions. RGRs were also projected to decline minimally (0-2 % d-1).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results contrast with projections for the sporophyte stage of E. radiata, which suggest a 257-km range contraction concurrent with loss of the low-latitude population by 2100. Thermal adaptation in E. radiata gametophytes suggests this life stage is likely resilient to future ocean warming and is unlikely to be a bottleneck for the future persistence of kelp.

The sugar kelp Saccharina latissima I: recent advances in a changing climate

BACKGROUND

The sugar kelp Saccharina latissima is a Laminariales species widely distributed in the Northern Hemisphere. Its physiology and ecology have been studied since the 1960s, given its ecological relevance on western temperate coasts. However, research interest has been rising recently, driven mainly by reports of negative impacts of anthropogenically induced environmental change and by the increased commercial interest in cultivating the species, with several industrial applications for the resulting biomass.

SCOPE

We used a variety of sources published between 2009 to May 2023 (but including some earlier literature where required), to provide a comprehensive review of the ecology, physiology, biochemical and molecular biology of S. latissima. In so doing we aimed to better understand the species' response to stressors in natural communities, but also inform the sustainable cultivation of the species.

CONCLUSION

Due to its wide distribution, S. latissima has developed a variety of physiological and biochemical mechanisms to adjust to environmental changes, including adjustments in photosynthetic parameters, modulation of osmolytes and antioxidants, reprogramming of gene expression and epigenetic modifications, among others summarized in this review. This is particularly important because massive changes in the abundance and distribution of S. latissima have already been observed. Namely, presence and abundance of S. latissima has significantly decreased at the rear edges on both sides of the Atlantic, and increased in abundance at the polar regions. These changes were mainly caused by climate change and will therefore be increasingly evident in the future. Recent developments in genomics, transcriptomics and epigenomics have clarified the existence of genetic differentiation along its distributional range with implications in the fitness at some locations. The complex biotic and abiotic interactions unraveled here demonstrated the cascading effects the disappearance of a kelp forest can have in a marine ecosystem. We show how S. latissima is an excellent model to study acclimation and adaptation to environmental variability and how to predict future distribution and persistence under climate change.

Spatiotemporal variability in population demography and morphology of the habitat-forming macroalga Saccorhiza polyschides in the Western English Channel

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Large brown macroalgae serve as foundation organisms along temperate and polar coastlines, providing a range of ecosystem services. Saccorhiza polyschides is a warm-temperate kelp-like species found in the northeast Atlantic, which is suggested to have proliferated in recent decades across the southern UK, possibly in response to increasing temperatures, physical disturbance and reduced competition. However, little is known about S. polyschides with regard to ecological functioning and population dynamics across its geographical range. Here we examined the population demography of S. polyschides populations in southwest UK, located within the species' range centre, to address a regional knowledge gap and to provide a baseline against which to detect future changes.

METHODS

Intertidal surveys were conducted during spring low tides at three sites along a gradient of wave exposure in Plymouth Sound (Western English Channel) over a period of 15 months. Density, cover, age, biomass and morphology of S. polyschides were quantified. Additionally, less frequent sampling of shallow subtidal reefs was conducted to compare intertidal and subtidal populations.

KEY RESULTS

We recorded pronounced seasonality, with fairly consistent demographic patterns across sites and depths. By late summer, S. polyschides was a dominant habitat-former on both intertidal and subtidal reefs, with maximum standing stock exceeding 13 000 g wet weight m-2.

CONCLUSIONS

Saccorhiza polyschides is a conspicuous and abundant member of rocky reef assemblages in the region, providing complex and abundant biogenic habitat for associated organisms and high rates of primary productivity. However, its short-lived pseudo-annual life strategy is in stark contrast to dominant long-lived perennial laminarian kelps. As such, any replacement or reconfiguration of habitat-forming macroalgae due to ocean warming will probably have implications for local biodiversity and community composition. More broadly, our study demonstrates the importance of high-resolution cross-habitat surveys to generate robust baselines of kelp population demography, against which the ecological impacts of climate change and other stressors can be reliably detected.

A species distribution model of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera: Worldwide changes and a focus on the Southeast Pacific

Worldwide climate-driven shifts in the distribution of species is of special concern when it involves habitat-forming species. In the coastal environment, large Laminarian algae-kelps-form key coastal ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps, Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed habitat-forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional changes on a global scale and use them to predict future habitat suitability. Using species distribution models (SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of M. pyrifera under different emission scenarios with a focus on the Southeast Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was the single most important variable explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for M. pyrifera. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of -17.08° S of latitude for 2090-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to -27.83° S in Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation. The loss of habitat suitability will take place worldwide: Significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio-ecological systems of the Southeast Pacific.

How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.

Shallow subtidal marine benthic communities of Nachvak Fjord, Nunatsiavut, Labrador: A glimpse into species composition and drivers of their distribution

Marine fjords along the northern Labrador coast of Arctic Canada are influenced by freshwater, nutrients, and sediment inputs from ice fields and rivers. These ecosystems, further shaped by both Atlantic and Arctic water masses, are important habitats for fishes, marine mammals, seabirds, and marine invertebrates and are vital to the Labrador Inuit who have long depended on these areas for sustenance. Despite their ecological and socio-cultural importance, these marine ecosystems remain largely understudied. Here we conducted the first quantitative underwater scuba surveys, down to 12 m, of the nearshore marine ecology of Nachvak Fjord, which is surrounded by Torngat Mountains National Park located in Nunatsiavut, the Indigenous lands claim region of northeastern Canada. Our goal was to provide the Nunatsiavut Government with a baseline of the composition and environmental influences on the subtidal community in this isolated region as they work towards the creation of an Indigenous-led National Marine Conservation Area that includes Nachvak Fjord. We identified four major benthic habitat types: (1) boulders (2) rocks with sediment, (3) sediment with rocks, and (4) unconsolidated sediments, including sand, gravel, and cobble. Biogenic cover (e.g., kelp, coralline algae, and sediment) explained much of the variability in megabenthic invertebrate community structure. The kelp species Alaria esculenta, Saccharina latissima, and Laminaria solidungula dominated the boulder habitat outside of the fjord covering 35%, 13%, and 11% of the sea floor, respectively. In contrast, the middle and inner portions of the fjord were devoid of kelp and dominated by encrusting coralline algae. More diverse megabenthic invertebrate assemblages were detected within the fjord compared to the periphery. Fish assemblages were depauperate overall with the shorthorn sculpin, Myoxocephalus scorpius, and the Greenland cod, Gadus ogac, dominating total fish biomass contributing 64% and 30%, respectively. Understanding the composition and environmental influences within this fjord ecosystem not only contributes towards the protection of this ecological and culturally important region but serves as a baseline in a rapidly changing climatic region.

A tool for detecting giant kelp canopy biomass decline in the Californias

Kelp species provide many ecosystem services associated with their three-dimensional structures. Among these, fast-growth, canopy-forming species, like giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, are the foundation of kelp forests across many temperate reefs. Giant kelp populations have experienced regional declines in different parts of the world. Giant kelp canopy is very dynamic and can take years to recover from disturbance, challenging comparisons of standing biomass with historical baselines. The Santa Barbara Coastal LTER (SBC LTER), curates a time series of Landsat sensed surface cover and biomass for giant kelp in the west coast of North America. In the last decade, this resource has been fundamental to understanding the species' population dynamics and drivers. However, simple ready-to-use summary statistics aimed at classifying regional kelp decline or recovery are not readily available to stakeholders and coastal managers. To this end, we describe here two simple metrics made available through the R package kelpdecline. First, the proportion of Landsat pixels in decline (PPD), in which current biomass is compared with a historical baseline, and second, a pixel occupancy trend (POT), in which current year pixel occupancy is compared to the time-series long probability of occupancy. The package produces raster maps and output tables summarizing kelp decline and trends over a 0.25 × 0.25° scale. Using kelpdecline, we show how sensitivity analysis on PPD parameter variation can increase the confidence of kelp decline estimates.

Effects of Climatic Change on Phylogeography and Ecological Niche of the Endemic Herb Elymus breviaristatus on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Past climatic and topographic variations have created strong biogeographic barriers for alpine species and are key drivers of the distribution of genetic variation and population dynamics of species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Therefore, to better conserve and use germplasm resources, it is crucial to understand the distribution and differentiation of genetic variation within species. Elymus breviaristatus, an ecologically important rare grass species with strong resistance, is restricted to a limited area of the QTP. In this study, we investigated the phylogeography of E. breviaristatus using five chloroplast genes and spacer regions in natural populations distributed along the eastern QTP. We identified a total of 25 haplotypes among 216 individuals from 18 E. breviaristatus populations, which were further classified into four haplogroups based on geographical distribution and haplotype network analysis. Notably, we did not observe any signs of population expansion. High genetic diversity was exhibited at both species and population levels, with precipitation being the main limiting factor for population genetic diversity levels. Higher genetic diversity was exhibited by populations located near the Mekong-Salween Divide genetic barrier, suggesting that they may have served as a glacial refuge. The significant pattern of genetic differentiation by environmental isolation highlights the influence of heterogeneous environments on the genetic structure of E. breviaristatus populations. Additionally, the results of ecological niche models indicated that the geographic distribution of E. breviaristatus populations has decreased rapidly since the Last Glacial Maximum but is not threatened by future global warming.

Past climate-driven range shifts structuring intraspecific biodiversity levels of the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) at global scales

The paradigm of past climate-driven range shifts structuring the distribution of marine intraspecific biodiversity lacks replication in biological models exposed to comparable limiting conditions in independent regions. This may lead to confounding effects unlinked to climate drivers. We aim to fill in this gap by asking whether the global distribution of intraspecific biodiversity of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) is explained by past climate changes occurring across the two hemispheres. We compared the species' population genetic diversity and structure inferred with microsatellite markers, with range shifts and long-term refugial regions predicted with species distribution modelling (SDM) from the last glacial maximum (LGM) to the present. The broad antitropical distribution of Macrocystis pyrifera is composed by six significantly differentiated genetic groups, for which current genetic diversity levels match the expectations of past climate changes. Range shifts from the LGM to the present structured low latitude refugial regions where genetic relics with higher and unique diversity were found (particularly in the Channel Islands of California and in Peru), while post-glacial expansions following ~ 40% range contraction explained extensive regions with homogenous reduced diversity. The estimated effect of past climate-driven range shifts was comparable between hemispheres, largely demonstrating that the distribution of intraspecific marine biodiversity can be structured by comparable evolutionary forces across the global ocean. Additionally, the differentiation and endemicity of regional genetic groups, confers high conservation value to these localized intraspecific biodiversity hotspots of giant kelp forests.

Distribution of a canopy-forming alga along the Western Atlantic Ocean under global warming: The importance of depth range

Sargassum species are among the most important canopy-forming algae in the Western Atlantic Ocean (WAO), providing habitat for many species and contributing to carbon uptake. The future distribution of Sargassum and other canopy-forming algae has been modelled worldwide, indicating that their occurrence in many regions is threatened by increased seawater temperature. Surprisingly, despite the recognized variation in vertical distribution of macroalgae, these projections generally do not evaluate their results at different depth ranges. This study aimed to project the potential current and future distributions of the common and abundant benthic Sargassum natans in the WAO (from southern Argentina to eastern Canada), under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios, through an ensemble SDM approach. Possible changes between present and future distributions were assessed within two depth ranges, namely areas up to 20 m and areas up to 100 m depth. Our models forecast different distributional trends for benthic S. natans depending on the depth range. Up to 100 m, suitable areas for the species will increase by 21% under RCP 4.5, and by 15% under RCP 8.5, when compared to the potential current distribution. On the contrary, up to 20 m, suitable areas for the species will decrease by 4% under RCP 4.5 and by 14% under RCP 8.5, when compared to the potential current distribution. Under the worst scenario, losses up to 20 m depth will affect approximately 45,000 km2 of coastal areas across several countries and regions of WAO, with likely negative consequences for the structure and dynamics of coastal ecosystems. These findings highlight the importance of considering different depth ranges when building and interpreting predictive models of the distribution of habitat-forming subtidal macroalgae under climate change.

Marine heatwaves and decreased light availability interact to erode the ecophysiological performance of habitat-forming kelp species

Coastal marine ecosystems are threatened by a range of anthropogenic stressors, operating at global, local, and temporal scales. We investigated the impact of marine heatwaves (MHWs) combined with decreased light availability over two seasons on the ecophysiological responses of three kelp species (Laminaria digitata, L. hyperborea, and L. ochroleuca). These species function as important habitat-forming foundation organisms in the northeast Atlantic and have distinct but overlapping latitudinal distributions and thermal niches. Under low-light conditions, summertime MHWs induced significant declines in biomass, blade surface area, and Fv/Fm values (a measure of photosynthetic efficiency) in the cool-water kelps L. digitata and L. hyperborea, albeit to varying degrees. Under high-light conditions, all species were largely resistant to simulated MHW activity. In springtime, MHWs had minimal impacts and in some cases promoted kelp performance, while reduced light availability resulted in lower growth rates. While some species were negatively affected by summer MHWs under low-light conditions (particularly L. digitata), they were generally resilient to MHWs under high-light conditions. As such, maintaining good environmental quality and water clarity may increase resilience of populations to summertime MHWs. Our study informs predictions of how habitat-forming foundation kelp species will be affected by interacting, concurrent stressors, typical of compound events that are intensifying under anthropogenic climate change.

Implications of taxonomic misidentification for future invasion predictions: Evidence from one of the most harmful invasive marine algae

Invasive species have been a focus of concern in recent decades, becoming more problematic due to the cumulative impacts of climate change. Understanding the interactions among stress factors is essential to anticipate ecosystems' responses. Hereby, robust modeling frameworks must be able to identify the environmental drivers of invasion and forecast the current and future of their potential distribution. These studies are essential for the management of invasions and to be prepared for the future we are facing. Here we demonstrate that taxonomic misidentifications may lead to absolutely erroneous predictions, by using as an example one of the worst invasive species in the Mediterranean Sea (Lophocladia lallemandii), which has been misidentified for three decades and now is correctly identified. Consequently, and bearing in mind overall trends in species misidentification due to the loss of taxonomic expertise and the presence of cryptic species, among others, attempts to understand and predict species involved in invasion processes must always first consider taxonomic studies.

Characterization of Gelidium corneum's (Florideophyceae, Rhodophyta) vegetative propagation process under increasing levels of temperature and irradiance

Climate change is affecting Gelidium corneum (Hudson) J.V. Lamouroux fields in the Bay of Biscay by reducing its cover and biomass. Understanding those changes requires a good characterization of the responses of this species to different stressors, particularly the effects on key processes such as the vegetative propagation. Here, we aimed to characterize the interactive effect of temperature (15, 20 and 25 °C) and irradiance (5-10, 55-60 and 95-100 μmol*m^-2*s^-1) on two phases of the vegetative propagation process: the re-attachment capacity and the survival of re-attached fragments. The study findings revealed significant effects of both temperature and irradiance in the re-attachment capacity of the species, with higher rates of attachment registered at 20 °C and 5-10 μmol*m^-2*s^-1 after 10, 20 and 30 days of culture. However, the interaction effects were not significant at any time interval. At higher or lower temperatures and increasing irradiances, the attachment capacity was reduced. On the other hand, irradiance was demonstrated to be the main factor controlling the survival of rhizoids. In fact, higher levels of irradiance generated severe damage on rhizoids, and thus, conditioned the development of new plants. According to this, it seems clear that the vegetative propagation process of this species is expected to become more vulnerable as both variables are expected to rise due to climate change. An increased vulnerability of this species may have several implications from an ecological and economic perspective, so we encourage to continue exploring the factors and processes controlling its distribution in order to adopt better management actions in the future.

The effects of intraspecific variation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

As global climate change is altering the distribution range of macroalgae across the globe, it is critical to assess its impact on species range shifts to inform the biodiversity conservation of macroalgae. Latitude/environmental gradients could cause intraspecific variability, which may result in distinct responses to climate change. It remains unclear whether geographical variation occurs in the response of species' populations to climate change. We tested this assumption using the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii, a habitat-forming macroalgae encompassing multiple divergent lineages along the Northwest Pacific. Previous studies revealed a distinct lineage of S. thunbergii in rear-edge populations. Given the phylogeographic structure and temperature gradients, we divided these populations into the southern and northern groups. We assessed the physiological responses of the two groups to temperature changes and estimated their niche differences using n-dimensional hypervolumes. A higher photosynthetic rate and antioxidative abilities were detected in the southern group of S. thunbergii than in the northern group. In addition, significant niche differentiation was detected between the two groups, suggesting the possibility for local adaptation. Given these results, we inferred that the southern group (rear-edge populations) may be more resilient to climate change. To examine climate-driven range shifts of S. thunbergii, we constructed species- and lineage-level species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions of both levels showed considerable distribution contracts along the Chinese coasts in the future. For the southern group, the lineage-level model predicted less habitat loss than the species-level model. Our results highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation in climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal species.

Could the annual Saccorhiza polyschides replace a sympatric perennial kelp (Laminaria ochroleuca) when it comes to supporting the holdfast-associated fauna?

Kelp forests dominate temperate rocky shores worldwide but are declining globally with consequences for organisms that depend on them. In NW Iberia, the golden kelp (Laminaria ochroleuca) commonly occurs alongside a fast-growing annual that, unlike the golden kelp, does not seem to have receded in recent times (Saccorhiza polyschides). Here, we assessed whether the bulbous holdfast of S. polyschides could replace the intricate holdfast of L. ochroleuca as epifaunal habitat provider. Richness, diversity and total abundance of epifauna was similar in both seaweeds, while colonial/encrusting fauna was more abundant in L. ochroleuca. More importantly, each host supported a distinctive assemblage structure, indicating that S. polyschides seems an unsuitable replacement for L. ochroleuca as habitat provider for holdfast epifauna. Therefore, while S. polyschides may contribute substantially to the kelp forest canopy in some seasons, a regional decline of L. ochroleuca will likely alter the patterns of biodiversity within kelp stands.

Whole genome population structure of North Atlantic kelp confirms high-latitude glacial refugia

Coastal refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (~21,000 years ago) have been hypothesized at high latitudes in the North Atlantic, suggesting marine populations persisted through cycles of glaciation and are potentially adapted to local environments. Here, whole-genome sequencing was used to test whether North Atlantic marine coastal populations of the kelp Alaria esculenta survived in the area of southwestern Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum. We present the first annotated genome for A. esculenta and call variant positions in 54 individuals from populations in Atlantic Canada, Greenland, Faroe Islands, Norway and Ireland. Differentiation across populations was reflected in ~1.9 million single nucleotide polymorphisms, which further revealed mixed ancestry in the Faroe Islands individuals between putative Greenlandic and European lineages. Time-calibrated organellar phylogenies suggested Greenlandic populations were established during the last interglacial period more than 100,000 years ago, and that the Faroe Islands population was probably established following the Last Glacial Maximum. Patterns in population statistics, including nucleotide diversity, minor allele frequencies, heterozygosity and linkage disequilibrium decay, nonetheless suggested glaciation reduced Canadian Atlantic and Greenlandic populations to small effective sizes during the most recent glaciation. Functional differentiation was further reflected in exon read coverage, which revealed expansions unique to Greenland in 337 exons representing 162 genes, and a modest degree of exon loss (103 exons from 56 genes). Altogether, our genomic results provide strong evidence that A. esculenta populations were resilient to past climatic fluctuations related to glaciations and that high-latitude populations are potentially already adapted to local conditions as a result.

Potential climatic and elevational range shifts in the Italian narrow endemic Bellevalia webbiana (Asparagaceae) under climate change scenarios

The Webb’s hyacinth (Bellevalia webbiana Parl., Asparagaceae) is an Italian narrow endemic species, listed as Endangered (EN A2c) in the IUCN Global Red List of Threatened Species. The range of this bulbous perennial herb is restricted to two disjunct areas of Central Italy, separated by the mountain ridge of Northern Apennine. To evaluate the impact of climate change on this species, we used Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) to predict future potential distribution under different scenarios, through Maximum entropy algorithm. The estimated potential distribution highlights the vulnerability of Webb’s hyacinth to the effects of climate change. The current potential Area Of Occupancy (AOO) (992 2×2 km cells) is forecast to dramatically decrease in the range 2041–2100, under the scenarios SSP3-7.0 (2070 = –249, 2100 = –682) and SSP5-8.5 (2070 = –372, 2100 = –948). In all future scenarios, the predicted potential distribution shifts towards higher elevations, located in the two main areas in which the species currently occurs. This could imply a loss of the current genetic differentiation documented at the population level. To overcome these problems, in addition to assisted colonization, an ex situ conservation programme should be planned.

A low-latitude species pump: Peripheral isolation, parapatric speciation and mating-system evolution converge in a marine radiation

Geologically recent radiations can shed light on speciation processes, but incomplete lineage sorting and introgressive gene flow render accurate evolutionary reconstruction and interpretation challenging. Independently evolving metapopulations of low dispersal taxa may provide an additional level of phylogeographic information, given sufficiently broad sampling and genome-wide sequencing. Evolution in the marine brown algal genus Fucus in the south-eastern North Atlantic was shaped by Quaternary climate-driven range shifts. Over this timescale, divergence and speciation occurred against a background of expansion-contraction cycles from multiple refugia, together with mating-system shifts from outcrossing (dioecy) to selfing hermaphroditism. We tested the hypothesis that peripheral isolation of range edge (dioecious) F. vesiculosus led to parapatric speciation and radiation of hermaphrodite lineages. Species tree methods using 876 single-copy nuclear genes and extensive geographic coverage produced conflicting topologies with respect to geographic clades of F. vesiculosus. All methods, however, revealed a new and early diverging hermaphrodite species, Fucus macroguiryi sp. nov. Both the multispecies coalescent and polymorphism-aware models (in contrast to concatenation) support sequential paraphyly in F. vesiculosus resulting from distinct evolutionary processes. Our results support (1) peripheral isolation of the southern F. vesiculosus clade prior to parapatric speciation and radiation of hermaphrodite lineages-a "low-latitude species pump". (2) Directional introgressive gene flow into F. vesiculosus around the present-day secondary contact zone (sympatric-allopatric boundary) between dioecious/hermaphrodite lineages as hermaphrodites expanded northwards, supported by concordance analysis and statistical tests of introgression. (3) Species boundaries in the extensive sympatric range are probably maintained by reproductive system (selfing in hermaphrodites) and reinforcement.

Niche availability and habitat affinities of the red porgy Pagrus pagrus (Linnaeus, 1758): An important ecological player on the world's largest rhodolith beds

The red porgy (Pagrus pagrus) is a carnivore bottom dweller sparid, inhabiting flat sandy bottoms, rhodolith and seagrass beds of the Mediterranean Sea, the Western Atlantic (from Florida to Argentina) and the Eastern Atlantic (from Britain to Gabon). Along its native range, the red porgy is highly targeted by commercial and artisanal fisheries. In the past 40 years, the population decline of the species has been widely reported. In many locations, such as the Brazilian coast, stocks have collapsed. The central portion of the Brazilian coast harbours the largest rhodolith beds in the world and the highest levels of nektonic and benthic biodiversity. Along the rhodolith megahabitat, P. pagrus density is disproportionately higher (by 480%) than that of conspicuous benthic fishes inhabiting the same environment. Despite the ecological and economic importance of such an important species along its native range, little is known regarding its habitat use, niche availability and population responses to global warming. Here we present habitat affinities based on data sampled using baited remote stereo-video systems, and modelled niche availability and global warming populational responses. Our findings reveal that the red porgy is a species highly associated with rhodolith beds along the central portion of the Brazilian coast. The presence of a disproportional density and biomass of the red porgy, compared to other marine fish species, indicates that the species plays a key ecological role as a carnivore, mesoconsumer and prey/predator tolerant species, maintaining essential ecological functions in the habitat. In a global warming scenario, the model predicted populational niche shifts poleward and a severe niche erosion at lower latitudes as expected. Conservation initiatives (implementation of Maine Protected Areas, trawling exclusion zones, mining exclusion zones, fisheries management policies) are urgent to secure future stocks of the red porgy and also preserve the fragile rhodolith beds they inhabit.

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.

Cold comfort: Arctic seabirds find refugia from climate change and potential competition in marginal ice zones and fjords

Climate change alters species distributions by shifting their fundamental niche in space through time. Such effects may be exacerbated by increased inter-specific competition if climate alters species dominance where competitor ranges overlap. This study used census data, telemetry and stable isotopes to examine the population and foraging ecology of a pair of Arctic and temperate congeners across an extensive zone of sympatry in Iceland, where sea temperatures varied substantially. The abundance of Arctic Brünnich's guillemot Uria lomvia declined with sea temperature. Accessibility of refugia in cold water currents or fjords helped support higher numbers and reduce rates of population decline. Competition with temperate Common guillemots Uria aalge did not affect abundance, but similarities in foraging ecology were sufficient to cause competition when resources are limiting. Continued warming is likely to lead to further declines of Brünnich's guillemot, with implications for conservation status and ecosystem services.

Whole-genome sequencing reveals forgotten lineages and recurrent hybridizations within the kelp genus Alaria (Phaeophyceae)

The genomic era continues to revolutionize our understanding of the evolution of biodiversity. In phycology, emphasis remains on assembling nuclear and organellar genomes, leaving the full potential of genomic datasets to answer long-standing questions about the evolution of biodiversity largely unexplored. Here, we used whole-genome sequencing (WGS) datasets to survey species diversity in the kelp genus Alaria, compare phylogenetic signals across organellar and nuclear genomes, and specifically test whether phylogenies behave like trees or networks. Genomes were sequenced from across the global distribution of Alaria (including Alaria crassifolia, A. praelonga, A. crispa, A. marginata, and A. esculenta), representing over 550 GB of data and over 2.2 billion paired reads. Genomic datasets retrieved 3,814 and 4,536 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for mitochondrial and chloroplast genomes, respectively, and upwards of 148,542 high-quality nuclear SNPs. WGS revealed an Arctic lineage of Alaria, which we hypothesize represents the synonymized taxon A. grandifolia. The SNP datasets also revealed inconsistent topologies across genomic compartments, and hybridization (i.e., phylogenetic networks) between Pacific A. praelonga, A. crispa, and putative A. grandifolia, and between some lineages of the A. marginata complex. Our analysis demonstrates the potential for WGS data to advance our understanding of evolution and biodiversity beyond amplicon sequencing, and that hybridization is potentially an important mechanism contributing to novel lineages within Alaria. We also emphasize the importance of surveying phylogenetic signals across organellar and nuclear genomes, such that models of mixed ancestry become integrated into our evolutionary and taxonomic understanding.

Climate-induced range shifts shaped the present and threaten the future genetic variability of a marine brown alga in the Northwest Pacific

Glaciation-induced environmental changes during the last glacial maximum (LGM) have strongly influenced species' distributions and genetic diversity patterns in the northern high latitudes. However, these effects have seldom been assessed on sessile species in the Northwest Pacific. Herein, we chose the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii to test this hypothesis, by comparing present population genetic variability with inferred geographical range shifts from the LGM to the present, estimated with species distribution modelling (SDM). Projections for contrasting scenarios of future climate change were also developed to anticipate genetic diversity losses at regional scales. Results showed that S. thunbergii harbours strikingly rich genetic diversity and multiple divergent lineages in the centre-northern range of its distribution, in contrast with a poorer genetically distinct lineage in the southern range. SDM hindcasted refugial persistence in the southern range during the LGM as well as post-LGM expansion of 18 degrees of latitude northward. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analysis further suggested that the multiple divergent lineages in the centre-northern range limit stem from post-LGM colonization from the southern survived lineage. This suggests divergence due to demographic bottlenecks during range expansion and massive genetic diversity loss during post-LGM contraction in the south. The projected future range of S. thunbergii highlights the threat to unique gene pools that might be lost under global changes.

Weak biodiversity connectivity in the European network of no-take marine protected areas

The need for international cooperation in marine resource management and conservation has been reflected in the increasing number of agreements aiming for effective and well-connected networks of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). However, the extent to which individual MPAs are connected remains mostly unknown. Here, we use a biophysical model tuned with empirical data on species dispersal ecology to predict connectivity of a vast spectrum of biodiversity in the European network of marine reserves (i.e., no-take MPAs). Our results highlight the correlation between empirical propagule duration data and connectivity potential and show weak network connectivity and strong isolation for major ecological groups, resulting from the lack of direct connectivity corridors between reserves over vast regions. The particularly high isolation predicted for ecosystem structuring species (e.g., corals, sponges, macroalgae and seagrass) might potentially undermine biodiversity conservation efforts if local retention is insufficient and unmanaged populations are at risk. Isolation might also be problematic for populations' persistence in the light of climate change and expected species range shifts. Our findings provide novel insights for management directives, highlighting the location of regions requiring additional marine reserves to function as stepping-stone connectivity corridors.

Global warming assessment suggests the endemic Brazilian kelp beds to be an endangered ecosystem

Kelps are canopy-forming brown seaweed sustaining critical ecosystem services in coastal habitats, including shelter, nursery grounds, and providing food resources to a myriad of associated species. This study modeled the fundamental niche of Laminaria abyssalis along the Brazilian continental margin, an endemic species of the South Atlantic, to anticipate potential distributional range shifts under two contrasting scenarios of future environmental changes (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The model for fundamental niche predictions considering the "present scenario" has shown a wider potential area than the realized niche (i.e., the area where the species actually occurs) along the Brazilian coast. In both future scenarios, the models have shown niche erosion on the northern portion of the Brazilian coast and niche gains towards the south. In both scenarios, L. abyssalis populations tend to shift to deeper regions of the reef. The restricted range of occurrence (33,000 km2), intense anthropic activities along these beds (e.g., trawling fisheries, oil/gas mining, or removal for agricultural purposes) acting synergically with global warming, may drive this ecosystem to collapse faster than kelp species' ability to adapt. We propose to classify L. abyssalis as Endangered - (EN) under IUCN criteria, and highlight that long-term monitoring of kelp beds is an urgent need to develop effective conservation initiatives to protect such rare and invaluable ecosystem.

Charting a course for genetic diversity in the UN Decade of Ocean Science

The health of the world's oceans is intrinsically linked to the biodiversity of the ecosystems they sustain. The importance of protecting and maintaining ocean biodiversity has been affirmed through the setting of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 14 to conserve and sustainably use the ocean for society's continuing needs. The decade beginning 2021-2030 has additionally been declared as the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. This program aims to maximize the benefits of ocean science to the management, conservation, and sustainable development of the marine environment by facilitating communication and cooperation at the science-policy interface. A central principle of the program is the conservation of species and ecosystem components of biodiversity. However, a significant omission from the draft version of the Decade of Ocean Science Implementation Plan is the acknowledgment of the importance of monitoring and maintaining genetic biodiversity within species. In this paper, we emphasize the importance of genetic diversity to adaptive capacity, evolutionary potential, community function, and resilience within populations, as well as highlighting some of the major threats to genetic diversity in the marine environment from direct human impacts and the effects of global climate change. We then highlight the significance of ocean genetic diversity to a diverse range of socioeconomic factors in the marine environment, including marine industries, welfare and leisure pursuits, coastal communities, and wider society. Genetic biodiversity in the ocean, and its monitoring and maintenance, is then discussed with respect to its integral role in the successful realization of the 2030 vision for the Decade of Ocean Science. Finally, we suggest how ocean genetic diversity might be better integrated into biodiversity management practices through the continued interaction between environmental managers and scientists, as well as through key leverage points in industry requirements for Blue Capital financing and social responsibility.

Imprint of Climate Change on Pan-Arctic Marine Vegetation

The Arctic climate is changing rapidly. The warming and resultant longer open water periods suggest a potential for expansion of marine vegetation along the vast Arctic coastline. We compiled and reviewed the scattered time series on Arctic marine vegetation and explored trends for macroalgae and eelgrass (Zostera marina). We identified a total of 38 sites, distributed between Arctic coastal regions in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Norway/Svalbard, and Russia, having time series extending into the 21st Century. The majority of these exhibited increase in abundance, productivity or species richness, and/or expansion of geographical distribution limits, several time series showed no significant trend. Only four time series displayed a negative trend, largely due to urchin grazing or increased turbidity. Overall, the observations support with medium confidence (i.e., 5–8 in 10 chance of being correct, adopting the IPCC confidence scale) the prediction that macrophytes are expanding in the Arctic. Species distribution modeling was challenged by limited observations and lack of information on substrate, but suggested a current (2000–2017) potential pan-Arctic brown macroalgal distribution area of 655,111 km2(140,433 km2intertidal, 514,679 km2subtidal), representing an increase of about 45% for subtidal- and 8% for intertidal macroalgae since 1940–1950, and associated polar migration rates averaging 18–23 km decade–1. Adjusting the potential macroalgal distribution area by the fraction of shores represented by cliffs halves the estimate (340,658 km2). Warming and reduced sea ice cover along the Arctic coastlines are expected to stimulate further expansion of marine vegetation from boreal latitudes. The changes likely affect the functioning of coastal Arctic ecosystems because of the vegetation’s roles as habitat, and for carbon and nutrient cycling and storage. We encourage a pan-Arctic science- and management agenda to incorporate marine vegetation into a coherent understanding of Arctic changes by quantifying distribution and status beyond the scattered studies now available to develop sustainable management strategies for these important ecosystems.

Seascape Genomics of the Sugar Kelp Saccharina latissima along the North Eastern Atlantic Latitudinal Gradient

Temperature is one of the most important range-limiting factors for many seaweeds. Driven by the recent climatic changes, rapid northward shifts of species' distribution ranges can potentially modify the phylogeographic signature of Last Glacial Maximum. We explored this question in detail in the cold-tolerant kelp species Saccharina latissima, using microsatellites and double digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing ( ddRAD-seq) derived single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to analyze the genetic diversity and structure in 11 sites spanning the entire European Atlantic latitudinal range of this species. In addition, we checked for statistical correlation between genetic marker allele frequencies and three environmental proxies (sea surface temperature, salinity, and water turbidity). Our findings revealed that genetic diversity was significantly higher for the northernmost locality (Spitsbergen) compared to the southern ones (Northern Iberia), which we discuss in light of the current state of knowledge on phylogeography of S. latissima and the potential influence of the recent climatic changes on the population structure of this species. Seven SNPs and 12 microsatellite alleles were found to be significantly associated with at least one of the three environmental variables. We speculate on the putative adaptive functions of the genes associated with the outlier markers and the importance of these markers for successful conservation and aquaculture strategies for S. latissima in this age of rapid global change.

Heat stress responses and population genetics of the kelp Laminaria digitata (Phaeophyceae) across latitudes reveal differentiation among North Atlantic populations

To understand the thermal plasticity of a coastal foundation species across its latitudinal distribution, we assess physiological responses to high temperature stress in the kelp Laminaria digitata in combination with population genetic characteristics and relate heat resilience to genetic features and phylogeography. We hypothesize that populations from Arctic and cold-temperate locations are less heat resilient than populations from warm distributional edges. Using meristems of natural L. digitata populations from six locations ranging between Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen (79°N), and Quiberon, France (47°N), we performed a common-garden heat stress experiment applying 15°C to 23°C over eight days. We assessed growth, photosynthetic quantum yield, carbon and nitrogen storage, and xanthophyll pigment contents as response traits. Population connectivity and genetic diversity were analyzed with microsatellite markers. Results from the heat stress experiment suggest that the upper temperature limit of L. digitata is nearly identical across its distribution range, but subtle differences in growth and stress responses were revealed for three populations from the species' ecological range margins. Two populations at the species' warm distribution limit showed higher temperature tolerance compared to other populations in growth at 19°C and recovery from 21°C (Quiberon, France), and photosynthetic quantum yield and xanthophyll pigment responses at 23°C (Helgoland, Germany). In L. digitata from the northernmost population (Spitsbergen, Norway), quantum yield indicated the highest heat sensitivity. Microsatellite genotyping revealed all sampled populations to be genetically distinct, with a strong hierarchical structure between southern and northern clades. Genetic diversity was lowest in the isolated population of the North Sea island of Helgoland and highest in Roscoff in the English Channel. All together, these results support the hypothesis of moderate local differentiation across L. digitata's European distribution, whereas effects are likely too weak to ameliorate the species' capacity to withstand ocean warming and marine heatwaves at the southern range edge.

Unique biodiversity in Arctic marine forests is shaped by diverse recolonization pathways and far northern glacial refugia

The Arctic is experiencing a rapid shift toward warmer regimes, calling for a need to understand levels of biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate cycles. This study presents genetic data for 109 Arctic marine forest species (seaweeds), which revealed contiguous populations extending from the Bering Sea to the northwest Atlantic, with high levels of genetic diversity in the east Canadian Arctic. One-fifth of the species sampled appeared restricted to Arctic waters. Further supported by hindcasted species distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum, we hypothesize that Arctic coastal systems were recolonized from many geographically disparate refugia leading to enriched diversity levels in the east Canadian Arctic, with important contributions stemming from northerly refugia likely centered along southern Greenland. Our results suggest Arctic marine biomes persisted through cycles of glaciation, leading to unique assemblages in polar waters, rather than being entirely derived from southerly (temperate) areas following glaciation. As such, Arctic marine species are potentially born from selective pressures during Cenozoic global cooling and eventual ice conditions beginning in the Pleistocene. Arctic endemic diversity was likely additionally driven by repeated isolations into globally disparate refugia during glaciation. This study highlights the need to take stock of unique Arctic marine biodiversity. Amplification of warming and loss of perennial ice cover are set to dramatically alter available Arctic coastal habitat, with the potential loss of diversity and decline in ecosystem resilience.

Marine heatwaves and the collapse of marginal North Atlantic kelp forests

Extreme climatic events including marine heatwaves (MHWs) are becoming more frequent and severe in the Anthropocene. However, our understanding of how these events affect population dynamics of ecologically important species is limited, in part because extreme events are rare and difficult to predict. Here, we quantified the occurrence and severity of MHWs over 60 years in warm range edge kelp forests on both sides of the North Atlantic. The cumulative annual intensity of MHWs increased two- to four-fold during this period, coinciding with the disappearance of kelps. We experimentally demonstrated a relationship between strong and severe 2018 heatwaves and high kelp mortality in both regions. Patterns of kelp mortality were strongly linked to maximum temperature anomalies, which crossed lethal thresholds in both regions. Translocation and tagging experiments revealed similar kelp mortality rates on reefs dominated by healthy kelp forests and degraded sediment-laden algal 'turfs', indicating equal vulnerability to extreme events. These results suggest a mechanistic link between MHWs and broad-scale kelp loss, and highlight how warming can make ecosystem boundaries unstable, forcing shifts to undesirable ecosystem states under episodically extreme climatic conditions.

Impacts of climate change on geographical distributions of invasive ascidians

Ocean warming associated with global climate change renders marine ecosystems susceptible to biological invasions. Here, we used species distribution models to project habitat suitability for eight invasive ascidians under present-day and future climate scenarios. Distance to shore and maximum sea surface temperature were identified as the most important variables affecting species distributions. Results showed that eight ascidians might respond differently to future climate change. Alarmingly, currently colonized areas are much smaller than predicted, suggesting ascidians may expand their invasive ranges. Areas such as Americas, Europe and Western Pacific have high risks of receiving new invasions. In contrast, African coasts, excluding the Mediterranean side, are not prone to new invasions, likely due to the high sea surface temperature there. Our results highlight the importance of climate change impacts on future invasions and the need for accurate modelling of invasion risks, which can be used as guides to develop management strategies.

A review of subtidal kelp forests in Ireland: From first descriptions to new habitat monitoring techniques

AIM

Kelp forests worldwide are important marine ecosystems that foster high primary to secondary productivity and multiple ecosystem services. These ecosystems are increasingly under threat from extreme storms, changing ocean temperatures, harvesting, and greater herbivore pressure at regional and global scales, necessitating urgent documentation of their historical to present-day distributions. Species range shifts to higher latitudes have already been documented in some species that dominate subtidal habitats within Europe. Very little is known about kelp forest ecosystems in Ireland, where rocky coastlines are dominated by Laminaria hyperborea. In order to rectify this substantial knowledge gap, we compiled historical records from an array of sources to present historical distribution, kelp and kelp forest recording effort over time, and present rational for the monitoring of kelp habitats to better understand ecosystem resilience.

LOCATION

Ireland (Northern Ireland and Éire).

METHODS

Herbaria, literature from the Linnaean society dating back to late 1700s, journal articles, government reports, and online databases were scoured for information on L. hyperborea. Information about kelp ecosystems was solicited from dive clubs and citizen science groups that are active along Ireland's coastlines.

RESULTS

Data were used to create distribution maps and analyze methodology and technology used to record L. hyperborea presence and kelp ecosystems within Ireland. We discuss the recent surge in studies on Irish kelp ecosystems, fauna associated with kelp ecosystems that may be used as indicators of ecosystem health and suggest methodologies for continued monitoring.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

While there has been a steady increase in recording effort of the dominant subtidal kelp forest species, L. hyperborea, only recently have studies begun to address other important eco-evolutionary processes at work in kelp forests including connectivity among kelp populations in Ireland. Further monitoring, using suggested methodologies, is required to better understand the resilience of kelp ecosystems in Ireland.

Macroalgal germplasm banking for conservation, food security, and industry

Ex situ seed banking was first conceptualized and implemented in the early 20th century to maintain and protect crop lines. Today, ex situ seed banking is important for the preservation of heirloom strains, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration, and diverse research applications. However, these efforts primarily target microalgae and terrestrial plants. Although some collections include macroalgae (i.e., seaweeds), they are relatively few and have yet to be connected via any international, coordinated initiative. In this piece, we provide a brief introduction to macroalgal germplasm banking and its application to conservation, industry, and mariculture. We argue that concerted effort should be made globally in germline preservation of marine algal species via germplasm banking with an overview of the technical advances for feasibility and ensured success.

Seaweed germplasm banking is an important resource for biodiversity conservation, human food security, and industry innovation. This Perspective article maintains that an international, coordinative initiative is needed to fully develop and capitalize on this resource.

Intra-Annual Variability in Responses of a Canopy Forming Kelp to Cumulative Low Tide Heat Stress: Implications for Populations at the Trailing Range Edge

Anthropogenic climate change is driving the redistribution of species at a global scale. For marine species, populations at trailing edges often live very close to their upper thermal limits and, as such, poleward range contractions are one of the most pervasive effects of ongoing and predicted warming. However, the mechanics of processes driving such contractions are poorly understood. Here, we examined the response of the habitat forming kelp, Laminaria digitata, to realistic terrestrial heatwave simulations akin to those experienced by intertidal populations persisting at the trailing range edge in the northeast Atlantic (SW England). We conducted experiments in both spring and autumn to determine temporal variability in the effects of heatwaves. In spring, heatwave scenarios caused minimal stress to L. digitata but in autumn all scenarios tested resulted in tissue being nonviable by the end of each assay. The effects of heatwave scenarios were only apparent after consecutive exposures, indicating erosion of resilience over time. Monthly field surveys corroborated experimental evidence as the prevalence of bleaching (an indication of physiological stress and tissue damage) in natural populations was greatest in autumn and early winter. Overall, our data showed that L. digitata populations in SW England persist close to their upper physiological limits for emersion stress in autumn. As the intensity of extreme warming events is likely to increase with anthropogenic climate change, thermal conditions experienced during periods of emersion will soon exceed physiological thresholds and will likely induce widespread mortality and consequent changes at the population level.

Impacts of ocean warming on kelp forest ecosystems

Kelp forests represent some of the most diverse and productive habitats on Earth, and provide a range of ecosystem goods and services on which human populations depend. As the distribution and ecophysiology of kelp species is strongly influenced by temperature, recent warming trends in many regions have been linked with concurrent changes in kelp populations, communities and ecosystems. Over the past decade, the number of reports of ocean warming impacts on kelp forests has risen sharply. Here, I synthesise recent studies to highlight general patterns and trends. While kelp responses to climate change vary greatly between ocean basins, regions and species, there is compelling evidence to show that ocean warming poses an unequivocal threat to the persistence and integrity of kelp forest ecosystems in coming decades.

How experimental physiology and ecological niche modelling can inform the management of marine bioinvasions?

Marine bioinvasions are increasing worldwide by a number of factors related to the anthroposphere, such as higher ship traffic, climate change and biotic communities' alterations. Generating information about species with high invasive potential is necessary to inform management decisions aiming to prevent their arrival and spread. Grateloupia turuturu, one of the most harmful invasive macroalgae, is capable of damaging ecosystem functions and services, and causing biodiversity loss. Here we developed an ecological niche model using occurrence and environmental data to infer the potential global distribution of G. turuturu. In addition, ecophysiological experiments were performed with G. turuturu populations from different climatic regions to test predictions regarding invasion risk. Our model results show high suitability in temperate and warm temperate regions around the world, with special highlight to some areas where this species still doesn't occur. Thalli representing a potential temperate region origin, were held at 10, 13, 16, 20 and 24 °C, and measurements of optimal quantum field (Fv/Fm) demonstrated a decrease of photosynthetic yield in the higher temperature. Thalli from the population already established in warm temperate South Atlantic were held at 18, 24 and 30 °C with high and low nutrient conditions. This material exposed to the higher temperature demonstrated a drop in photosynthetic yield and significant reduction of growth rate. The congregation of modelling and physiological approach corroborate the invasive potential of G. turuturu and indicate higher invasion risk in temperate zones. Further discussions regarding management initiatives must be fostered to mitigate anthropogenic transport and eventually promote eradication initiatives in source areas, with special focus in the South America. We propose that this combined approach can be used to assess the potential distribution and establishment of other marine invasive species.

Future range dynamics of the red alga Capreolia implexa in native and invaded regions: contrasting predictions from species distribution models versus physiological knowledge

Abstract

Correlative species distribution modelling is a widely used method to predict potential species ranges but can suffer from limitations in integrating species’ fundamental niches. Therefore, they might underestimate suitable ranges, but including physiological information can improve accuracy of predictions and help identify mechanisms of e.g. range limitation. However, approaches using both, results from correlative as well as physiological investigations are rare, especially in research on seaweeds. Here, we provide results from both approaches to predict the suitable habitat range of Capreolia implexa (Rhodophyta) in its native range (Australia and New Zealand) and invaded range (Chile) under present and future climate scenarios (year 2100, rcp 2.6 and rcp 8.5). We used the Maxent modelling technique and physiological knowledge from a temperature tolerance experiment (2–20 °C) for thermal niche estimation. Results from both approaches suggest larger suitable habitat ranges under present day conditions for both regions than currently occupied. Abiotic range limitation in the native range led to underestimation of the suitable temperature range by Maxent (here lower temperature limit = 8.3 °C). Predictions based on the laboratory temperature tolerance experiment suggest additional suitable habitat in colder regions (here lower temperature limit = 6.6 ± 0.4 °C). Under future climate conditions, both native and invaded ranges should shift southward, which will lead to an overall loss of suitable habitat in the native range. Like that, rcp 8.5 conditions should reduce the native range to 50% of the present-day extent. We demonstrate the limitation of correlative SDM modelling for species that live on continental margins and that physiological experiments can help to identify species’ niches beyond correlative analyses, providing valuable information for range projections. Furthermore, we provide valuable insights relevant for both invasion management and conservation.

Graphic abstract

Biological interactions: The overlooked aspects of marine climate change refugia

This article emphasizes on biological interactions as an important overlooked criterion to better assess the chance of target marine species in potential refugia to survive climate change. It proposes future climate change refugia studies must consider the reciprocal interactions among climate change, biological factor, and conservation strategies.