The influence of weather on avian spring migration phenology: What, where and when?

Concentration of metals and metalloids in livers of birds of various foraging guilds collected during the autumn migration period in Poland

During migration, birds explore various habitats at stopover sites that differ in food resources and contamination levels. In this study, hepatic concentrations of 21 elements (metals and metalloids) in 11 species of birds, representing various foraging habitats (such as aquatic, aquatic/terrestrial, and terrestrial) and migration modes (migratory and sedentary) representing various foraging guilds (omnivores, piscivores, and molluscivores), were analyzed. The samples (N = 84) were collected during the autumn migration period in Poland. The concentrations of elements determined in this study exhibited high inter-species variability, reflecting the diversity in contamination levels depending on food resources used by specific bird groups. Many of the investigated individuals from different species showed exceeded levels of subclinical toxicity and moderate clinical poisoning due to Cd and Hg. Higher concentrations of As, Hg, and Ba and lower V concentrations were found in migratory birds as compared to sedentary birds. Species foraging in terrestrial habitat had different concentrations of some elements compared to aquatic and aquatic/terrestrial species. Some specific inter-species differences in hepatic elemental concentrations were found. Differences in elemental concentrations among various groups can primarily be attributed to their foraging guilds, with certain elements, particularly As, V, and Hg, playing a significant role in the dissimilarity of elemental concentrations between foraging habitat groups and migratory mode groups. The data collected confirmed the limited ability of As to enter ecosystem pathways. The results of this study contribute to understanding the year-round exposure of migratory birds to environmental contamination, which can have carry-over effects on their performance in wintering and breeding grounds.

Micro-evolutionary response of spring migration timing in a wild seabird

In the context of rapid climate change, phenological advance is a key adaptation for which evidence is accumulating across taxa. Among vertebrates, phenotypic plasticity is known to underlie most of this phenological change, while evidence for micro-evolution is very limited and challenging to obtain. In this study, we quantified phenotypic and genetic trends in timing of spring migration using 8,032 dates of arrival at the breeding grounds obtained from observations on 1,715 individual common terns (Sterna hirundo) monitored across 27 years, and tested whether these trends were consistent with predictions of a micro-evolutionary response to selection. We observed a strong phenotypic advance of 9.3 days in arrival date, of which c. 5% was accounted for by an advance in breeding values. The Breeder's equation and Robertson's Secondary Theorem of Selection predicted qualitatively similar evolutionary responses to selection, and these theoretical predictions were largely consistent with our estimated genetic pattern. Overall, our study provides rare evidence for micro-evolution underlying (part of) an adaptive response to climate change in the wild, and illustrates how a combination of adaptive micro-evolution and phenotypic plasticity facilitated a shift towards earlier spring migration in this free-living population of common terns.

Simultaneous estimation of the temporal and spatial extent of animal migration using step lengths and turning angles

BACKGROUND

Animals of many different species, trophic levels, and life history strategies migrate, and the improvement of animal tracking technology allows ecologists to collect increasing amounts of detailed data on these movements. Understanding when animals migrate is important for managing their populations, but is still difficult despite modelling advancements.

METHODS

We designed a model that parametrically estimates the timing of migration from animal tracking data. Our model identifies the beginning and end of migratory movements as signaled by change-points in step length and turning angle distributions. To this end, we can also use the model to estimate how an animal's movement changes when it begins migrating. In addition to a thorough simulation analysis, we tested our model on three datasets: migratory ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) in the Great Plains, barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) in northern Canada, and non-migratory brown bears (Ursus arctos) from the Canadian Arctic.

RESULTS

Our simulation analysis suggests that our model is most useful for datasets where an increase in movement speed or directional autocorrelation is clearly detectable. We estimated the beginning and end of migration in caribou and hawks to the nearest day, while confirming a lack of migratory behaviour in the brown bears. In addition to estimating when caribou and ferruginous hawks migrated, our model also identified differences in how they migrated; ferruginous hawks achieved efficient migrations by drastically increasing their movement rates while caribou migration was achieved through significant increases in directional persistence.

CONCLUSIONS

Our approach is applicable to many animal movement studies and includes parameters that can facilitate comparison between different species or datasets. We hope that rigorous assessment of migration metrics will aid understanding of both how and why animals move.

Migratory swans individually adjust their autumn migration and winter range to a warming climate

In response to climate warming, migratory animals can alter their migration so that different events in the annual cycle are better aligned in space and time with suitable environmental conditions. Although such responses have been studied extensively during spring migration and the breeding season, much less is known about the influence of temperature on movements throughout autumn migration and how those movements result in a winter range and shifts therein. We use multi-year GPS tracking data to quantify how daily autumn movement and annual winter distance from the breeding grounds are related to temperature in the Western Palearctic Bewick's swan, a long-lived migratory waterbird whose winter range has shifted more than 350 km closer to the breeding grounds since 1970 due to individuals increasingly 'short-stopping' their autumn migration. We show that the migratory movement of swans is driven by lower temperatures throughout the autumn season, with individuals during late autumn moving only substantially when temperatures drop below freezing. As a result, there is large flexibility in their annual winter distance as a response to winter temperature. On average, individuals overwinter 118 km closer to the breeding grounds per 1°C increase in mean December-January temperature. Given the observed temperature increase in the Bewick's swan winter range during the last decades, our results imply that the observed range shift is for a substantial part driven by individual responses to a warming climate. We thus present an example of individual flexibility towards climatic conditions driving the range shift of a migratory species. Our study adds to the understanding of the processes that shape autumn migration decisions, winter ranges and shifts therein, which is crucial to be able to predict how climate change may impact these processes in the future.

Significantly Earlier Spring Migration in Most Bird Species at the Eastern Limit of Europe

The first arrival dates of 31 species of migrant birds in the Tatarstan Republic of Russia were monitored for the 34-year period from 1989-2022. Trends in first arrival date were evaluated using regression against the year value. Patterns in arrival data with respect to species traits (habitat, migration distance, body weight, etc.) were evaluated using redundancy analysis. Relationships between first arrival dates and Tatarstan temperatures were also evaluated using regression methods of first-arrival date on monthly mean temperatures. Almost all (28 of 31) species revealed a significantly earlier migration arrival date; however, associations between arrival patterns and species traits were equivocal. Warmer temperatures were significantly associated with earlier arrival in 26 of the 31 species, but the relationship was insufficient to explain the average 11-day advance in species. For these species and in this location only the timing and location of arrival are well recorded; the exact wintering areas and migration routes, and the timing of these phases are less well understood. When these become better known, an investigation of the influence of environmental conditions (including temperature) on departure timing and passage timing and speed is recommended.

Molecular Changes in the Brain of the Wintering Calidris pusilla in the Mangroves of the Amazon River Estuary

Migrant birds prepare differently to fly north for breeding in the spring and for the flight to lower latitudes during autumn, avoiding the cold and food shortages of the Northern Hemisphere's harsh winter. The molecular events associated with these fundamental stages in the life history of migrants include the differential gene expression in different tissues. Semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) are Arctic-breeding shorebirds that migrate to the coast of South America during the non-breeding season. In a previous study, we demonstrated that between the beginning and the end of the wintering period, substantial glial changes and neurogenesis occur in the brain of C. pusilla. These changes follow the epic journey of the autumn migration when a 5-day non-stop transatlantic flight towards the coast of South America and the subsequent preparation for the long-distance flight of the spring migration takes place. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the differential gene expressions observed in the brains of individuals captured in the autumn and spring windows are consistent with the previously described cellular changes. We searched for differential gene expressions in the brain of the semipalmated sandpiper, of recently arrived birds (RA) from the autumnal migration, and that of individuals in the premigratory period (PM) in the spring. All individuals were collected in the tropical coastal of northern Brazil in the mangrove region of the Amazon River estuary. We generated a de novo neurotranscriptome for C. pusilla individuals and compared the gene expressions across libraries. To that end, we mapped an RNA-Seq that reads to the C. pusilla neurotranscriptome in four brain samples of each group and found that the differential gene expressions in newly arrived and premigratory birds were related with neurogenesis, metabolic pathways (ketone body biosynthetic and the catabolic and lipid biosynthetic processes), and glial changes (astrocyte-dopaminergic neuron signaling, astrocyte differentiation, astrocyte cell migration, and astrocyte activation involved in immune response), as well as genes related to the immune response to virus infections (Type I Interferons), inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, IL-1β, TNF, and NF-κB), NLRP3 inflammasome, anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-10), and cell death pathways (pyroptosis- and caspase-related changes).

Global change drives phenological and spatial shifts in Central European longhorn beetles (Coleoptera, Cerambycidae) during the past 150 years

Temperature increases and land-use changes induce altered annual activity periods of arthropods. However, sufficiently resolved long-term data sets (> 100 years) are mostly missing. We use a data set of longhorn beetle records (71 species) collected in Luxembourg 1864-2014. Increase of annual temperatures was significantly correlated with an earlier annual appearance. Forty-four species present before and after 1980 appeared on average 8.2 days earlier in the year in the more recent period. Since 1950, the estimated shift was 0.26 days per year. Increase of temperature in spring (March-June) preponed the first appearance of beetles by on average 9.6 days per 1 °C. We found significant changes in the composition of beetle communities, with a net gain in species richness during the last 40 years. Eleven species recorded only after 1997 were characterized by comparatively early annual appearance. Smaller beetles tended to appear earlier in the year in comparison to large-bodied species. Shifts in phenology did not correlate with species Red List status. As also demonstrated by our data, climate change in general affects insect phenologies and changes species composition. However, land-use change has taken place in parallel with climate change. Both aspects of global change are influencing the changes in longhorn beetle occurrences in Luxemburg in their combination. This might be most clearly reflected in the strong decrease of species with continental climate niches dwelling in old-growth deciduous forests that apparently are threatened by the loss of these habitats and increasing spring temperatures.

Diverse environmental cues drive the size of reproductive aggregation in a rheophilic fish

BACKGROUND

Animal migrations are periodic and relatively predictable events, and their precise timing is essential to the reproductive success. Despite large scientific effort in monitoring animal reproductive phenology, identification of complex environmental cues that determine the timing of reproductive migrations and temporal changes in the size of reproductive aggregations in relation to environmental variables is relatively rare in the current scientific literature.

METHODS

We tagged and tracked 1702 individuals of asp (Leuciscus aspius), a large minnow species, and monitored with a resolution of one hour the size of their reproductive aggregations (counts of sexes present at the breeding grounds standardized by the sum of individuals in the season) over seven breeding seasons using passive integrated transponder tag systems. We examined the size of reproductive aggregations in relation to environmental cues of day number within a reproductive season (intra-year seasonality), water temperature, discharge, hour in a day (intra-day pattern), temperature difference between water and air, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and lunar phase. A generalized additive model integrating evidence from seven breeding seasons and providing typical dynamics of reproductive aggregations was constructed.

RESULTS

We demonstrated that all environmental cues considered contributed to the changes in the size of reproductive aggregations during breeding season, and that some effects varied during breeding season. Our model explained approximately 50% of the variability in the data and the effects were sex-dependent (models of the same structure were fitted to each sex separately, so that we effectively stratified on sex). The size of reproductive aggregations increased unimodally in response to day in season, correlated positively with water temperature and wind speed, was highest before and after the full moon, and highest at night (interacting with day in a season). Males responded negatively and females positively to increase in atmospheric pressure.

CONCLUSION

The data demonstrate complex utilization of available environmental cues to time reproductive aggregations in freshwater fish and their interactions during the reproductive season. The study highlights the need to acquire diverse data sets consisting of many environmental cues to achieve high accuracy of interpretation of reproductive timing.

Large-Scale Climatic Patterns Have Stronger Carry-Over Effects than Local Temperatures on Spring Phenology of Long-Distance Passerine Migrants between Europe and Africa

Simple Summary

Spring in Europe has been trending earlier for almost half a century. Long-distance migrant birds, such as the Willow Warbler and Pied Flycatcher, which breed in Europe, have arrived earlier too. It is broadly accepted that warming springs in temperate regions explain the earlier arrival of migrants. However, migration started weeks earlier and thousands of kilometres away. There must be additional cues elsewhere triggering migration. Meteorologists have developed measures of atmospheric circulation which are related to climate variability in wide regions. One of them is the Southern Oscillation Index, which reflects El Niño/La Niña that cause droughts and floods in the southern hemisphere. Other atmospheric circulation patterns, measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole, help predict total rainfall for a whole season in various parts of Africa and Europe. Good rains are associated with plant growth and with insect abundance. Insects provide food for most of these migrants. Therefore, this paper asks the question: “Is the timing of arrival of long-distance migrants in spring related to the climates they experience in the places where they are over the year prior to arrival in Europe?” This paper says the answer is “Yes”.

Abstract

Earlier springs in temperate regions since the 1980s, attributed to climate change, are thought to influence the earlier arrival of long-distance migrant passerines. However, this migration was initiated weeks earlier in Africa, where the Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation drive climatic variability, and may additionally influence the migrants. Multiple regressions investigated whether 15 indices of climate in Africa and Europe explained the variability in timing of arrival for seven trans-Saharan migrants. Our response variable was Annual Anomaly (AA), derived from standardized mistnetting from 1982–2021 at Bukowo, Polish Baltic Sea. For each species, the best models explained a considerable part of the annual variation in the timing of spring’s arrival by two to seven climate variables. For five species, the models included variables related to temperature or precipitation in the Sahel. Similarly, the models included variables related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (for four species), Indian Ocean Dipole (three), and Southern Oscillation (three). All included the Scandinavian Pattern in the previous summer. Our conclusion is that climate variables operating on long-distance migrants in the areas where they are present in the preceding year drive the phenological variation of spring migration. These results have implications for our understanding of carry-over effects.

High individual repeatability of the migratory behaviour of a long-distance migratory seabird

BACKGROUND

Understanding the evolution of migration requires knowledge of the patterns, sources, and consequences of variation in migratory behaviour, a need exacerbated by the fact that many migratory species show rapid population declines and require knowledge-based conservation measures. We therefore need detailed knowledge on the spatial and temporal distribution of individuals across their annual cycle, and quantify how the spatial and temporal components of migratory behaviour vary within and among individuals.

METHODS

We tracked 138 migratory journeys undertaken by 64 adult common terns (Sterna hirundo) from a breeding colony in northwest Germany to identify the annual spatiotemporal distribution of these birds and to evaluate the individual repeatability of eleven traits describing their migratory behaviour.

RESULTS

Birds left the breeding colony early September, then moved south along the East Atlantic Flyway. Wintering areas were reached mid-September and located at the west and south coasts of West Africa as well as the coasts of Namibia and South Africa. Birds left their wintering areas late March and reached the breeding colony mid-April. The timing, total duration and total distance of migration, as well as the location of individual wintering areas, were moderately to highly repeatable within individuals (repeatability indexes: 0.36-0.75, 0.65-0.66, 0.93-0.94, and 0.98-1.00, respectively), and repeatability estimates were not strongly affected by population-level inter-annual variation in migratory behaviour.

CONCLUSIONS

We found large between-individual variation in common tern annual spatiotemporal distribution and strong individual repeatability of several aspects of their migratory behaviour.

Factors associated with arrival timing and condition of migrant landbird species in northeastern Pennsylvania

Extrinsic and intrinsic factors operating during and prior to the passerine spring migratory period have been associated with both migratory timing and condition. Here we take advantage of a long-term data set to answer questions about how extrinsic factors encountered on the wintering grounds (El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) and en route (temperatures south of our study site) along with intrinsic factors (age, sex if possible) influenced both arrival timing and condition at our site in northeastern Pennsylvania. Older birds preceded younger, male Common Yellowthroats (Geothlypis trichas) preceded females and within a year later arriving Gray Cat-birds (Dumetella carolinensis) and Common Yellowthroats were in better condition. We found that Gray Catbirds and Common Yellowthroats migrating during warmer years arrived in better condition. Finally, we found evidence that ENSO, likely via influencing weather and food availability during the winter, was associated with arrival timing in Veery (Catharus fuscescens), Common Yellowthroats and possibly Gray Catbirds. Our results support the hypothesis that events experienced earlier, either between (wintering to migratory periods) or within (earlier vs. later in migration) phases of the avian annual cycle may carry over, influencing fitness later in time or in subsequent phases of the annual cycle.

Population specific annual cycles and migration strategies in a leap-frog migrant

Abstract

A common migratory pattern in birds is that northerly breeding populations migrate to more southerly non-breeding sites compared to southerly breeding populations (leap-frog migration). Not only do populations experience differences in migration distances, but also different environmental conditions, which may vary spatiotemporally within their annual cycles, creating distinctive selective pressures and migratory strategies. Information about such adaptations is important to understand migratory drivers and evolution of migration patterns. We use light-level geolocators and citizen science data on regional spring arrivals to compare two populations of common ringed plover Charadrius hiaticula breeding at different latitudes. We (1) describe and characterize the annual cycles and (2) test predictions regarding speed and timing of migration. The northern breeding population (NBP) wintered in Africa and the southern (SBP) mainly in Europe. The annual cycles were shifted temporally so that the NBP was always later in all stages. The SBP spent more than twice as long time in the breeding area, but there was no difference in winter. The NBP spent more time on migration in general. Spring migration speed was lower in the SBP compared to autumn speed of both populations, and there was no difference in autumn and spring speed in the NBP. We also found a larger variation in spring arrival times across years in the SBP. This suggests that a complex interaction of population specific timing and variation of breeding onset, length of breeding season, and proximity to the breeding area shape the annual cycle and migratory strategies.

Significance statement

Migration distance, climate, and the resulting composition of the annual cycle are expected to influence migration strategies and timing in birds. Testing theories regarding migration behaviours are challenging, and intraspecific comparisons over the full annual cycle are still rare. Here we compare the spatiotemporal distributions of two latitudinally separated populations of common ringed plovers using light-level geolocators. We found that there was a larger long-term variation in first arrival dates and that migration speed was slower only in spring in a temperate, short-distance migratory population, compared to an Arctic, long-distance migratory population. This suggests that a complex interaction of population specific timing and variation of breeding onset, length of breeding season and proximity to the breeding area shape the annual cycle and migratory behaviours.

Limited increase in asynchrony between the onset of spring green-up and the arrival of a long-distance migratory bird

For many migrant bird species around the world, climate change has been shown to induce changes in the timings of arrival and the onset of spring food availability at breeding sites. However, whether such changes enlarged asynchrony between the timings of spring arrival of long-distance migratory birds and onset of vegetation greenness increase remain controversial. We used a 29-year phenological dataset to investigate the temporal changes in spring first-sighting date (FSD) of a long-distance migratory bird (barn swallow, Hirundo rustica), from observations at 160 local breeding sites across northern China, and the vegetation green-up onset date (VGD), determined from satellite observations of vegetation greenness. We found that both FSD and VGD trended earlier at over two-thirds of the breeding sites. FSD significantly advanced at 26.9% of the sites, and VGD significantly advanced at 23.8% of the sites. The degree of asynchrony between FSD and VGD changed significantly at one-third of the breeding sites (22.5% with an increase versus 11.3% with a decrease), leading to a limited increase of phenological mismatch. We speculated that climate change did not disrupt the climatic connections between most breeding sites and corresponding non-breeding sites (wintering grounds and migration routes). Our findings suggest that climate change may not greatly increase phenological mismatch between first arrival date of barn swallows and VGD at breeding sites. Importantly, this study should serve as a cue to encourage ecologists and conservation biologists to expand the context under which to explore the ecological consequences of phenological shifts beyond asynchrony, such as individual survival, population demography and ecosystem-level consequences.

Days to visit an offshore island: effect of weather conditions on arrival fuel load and potential flight range for common blackbirds Turdus merula migrating over the North Sea

BACKGROUND

Crossing open water instead of following the coast(line) is one way for landbirds to continue migration. However, depending on prevailing weather and the birds' physiological conditions, it is also a risky choice. To date, the question remains as to which interplay between environmental and physiological conditions force landbirds to stop on remote islands. We hypothesise that unfavourable winds affect lean birds with low energy resources, while poor visibility affects all birds regardless of their fuel loads.

METHODS

To test this hypothesis, we caught 1312 common blackbirds Turdus merula stopping over on Helgoland during autumn and spring migration. Arrival fuel load was measured using quantitative magnetic resonance technology. Weather parameters (wind and relative humidity as a proxy for visibility) were interpolated for the night before arrival. Further, we calculated whether caught individuals would have successfully crossed the North Sea instead of landing on Helgoland, depending on wind conditions.

RESULTS

Both wind and relative humidity the night before arrival were correlated with arrival fuel load. After nights with strong headwinds, birds caught the following day were mostly lean, most of which would not have managed to cross the sea if they had not stopped on Helgoland. In contrast, fat birds that could have successfully travelled on were caught mainly after nights with high relative humidity (≥ 80%). Furthermore, the rate of presumably successful flights was lower due to wind: although only 9% of all blackbirds captured on Helgoland had insufficient fuel loads to allow safe onward migration in still air, real wind conditions would have prevented 30% of birds from successfully crossing the sea during autumn and 21% during spring migration.

CONCLUSIONS

We were able to decipher how physiological condition, wind and relative humidity partially force blackbirds to stop on a remote island. Adverse winds tend to affect lean birds with low energy resources, while poor visibility can affect blackbirds, regardless of whether the arrival fuel load was sufficient for onward flight. Our findings will help to understand different migratory strategies and explain further questions like migration timing.

Timing of spring departure of long distance migrants correlates with previous year's conditions at their breeding site

Precise timing of migration is crucial for animals targeting seasonal resources at locations encountered across their annual cycle. Upon departure, long-distance migrants need to anticipate unknown environmental conditions at their arrival site, and they do so with their internal annual clock. Here, we tested the hypothesis that long-distance migrants synchronize their circannual clock according to the phenology of their environment during the breeding season and therefore adjust their spring departure date according to the conditions encountered at their breeding site the year before. To this end, we used tracking data of Eurasian curlews from different locations and combined movement data with satellite-extracted green-up dates at their breeding site. The spring departure date was better explained by green-up date of the previous year, while arrival date at the breeding site was better explained by latitude and longitude of the breeding site, suggesting that other factors impacted migration timing en route. On a broader temporal scale, our results suggest that long-distance migrants may be able to adjust their migration timing to advancing spring dates in the context of climate change.

Birds use individually consistent temperature cues to time their migration departure

Whether migratory populations are preadapted or constrained in responding to global climate change largely depends on which cues individuals use when deciding to start their migration. The identity of these cues is revealed by whether response thresholds are consistent within, but differ between, individuals (“repeatability”). By satellite tracking 48 individuals across multiple migrations, we show that 1) Asian houbara used the environmental cue of local temperature, which was correlated between wintering and breeding grounds, to time their spring migration departure; 2) departure responses to temperature varied between individuals but were individually repeatable; and 3) individuals’ use of temperature as a cue allowed for adaptive population-level change in migration timing, relative to annual variation in spring temperatures.

A fundamental issue in migration biology is how birds decide when to start their journey, given that arriving too early or too late in a variable environment reduces individual fitness. Internal circannual regulation and predictable cues such as photoperiod prepare birds for migration, while variable external cues such as temperature and wind are thought to fine-tune departure times; however, this has not been demonstrated at the key point at which an individual animal decides to start migrating. In theory, environmental cues correlated between departure and arrival sites allow informed departure decisions. For 48 satellite-tracked Asian houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii, a medium-distance migrant with climatic connectivity between wintering and breeding areas, each tracked across multiple years, spring departure was under individually consistent temperature conditions, with greater individual repeatability than for photoperiod or wind. Individuals occupied a range of wintering sites latitudinally spanning 1,200 km but departed at lower temperatures from more northerly latitudes. These individual departure decisions produced earlier mean population-level departure and arrival dates in warmer springs. Phenological adjustments were fully compensatory, because individuals arrived on the breeding grounds under similar temperature conditions each year. Individuals’ autumn departure decisions were also repeatable for temperature but less distinct than for spring, likely because of relaxed time constraints on leaving breeding grounds and the use of wind as a supplementary departure cue. We show that individual-level departure decisions informed by local temperatures can preadapt a population to adjust its population-level phenology in response to annual variability in spring temperatures without requiring genetic change in reaction thresholds.

Migratory strategy drives species-level variation in bird sensitivity to vegetation green-up

Animals and plants are shifting the timing of key life events in response to climate change, yet despite recent documentation of escalating phenological change, scientists lack a full understanding of how and why phenological responses vary across space and among species. Here, we used over 7 million community-contributed bird observations to derive species-specific, spatially explicit estimates of annual spring migration phenology for 56 bird species across eastern North America. We show that changes in the spring arrival of migratory birds are coarsely synchronized with fluctuations in vegetation green-up and that the sensitivity of birds to plant phenology varied extensively. Bird arrival responded more synchronously with vegetation green-up at higher latitudes, where phenological shifts over time are also greater. Critically, species' migratory traits explained variation in sensitivity to green-up, with species that migrate more slowly, arrive earlier and overwinter further north showing greater responsiveness to earlier springs. Identifying how and why species vary in their ability to shift phenological events is fundamental to predicting species' vulnerability to climate change. Such variation in sensitivity across taxa, with long-distance neotropical migrants exhibiting reduced synchrony, may help to explain substantial declines in these species over the last several decades.

Migrating curlews on schedule: departure and arrival patterns of a long-distance migrant depend on time and breeding location rather than on wind conditions

BACKGROUND

Departure decisions in long-distance migratory bird species may depend on favourable weather conditions and beneficial resources at the destination location, overarched by genetic triggers. However, few studies have tried to validate the significance of these three concepts simultaneously, and long-term, high-resolution tagging datasets recording individual movements across consecutive years are scarce. We used such a dataset to explore intraspecific and intra-individual variabilities in departure and arrival decisions from/to wintering grounds in relation to these three different concepts in bird migration.

METHODS

We equipped 23 curlews (Numenius arquata) wintering in the Wadden Sea with Global Positioning System data loggers to record their spatio-temporal patterns of departure from and arrival at their wintering site, and the first part of their spring migration. We obtained data for 42 migrations over 6 years, with 12 individuals performing repeat migrations in consecutive years. Day of year of departure and arrival was related to 38 meteorological and bird-related predictors using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to identify drivers of departure and arrival decisions.

RESULTS

Curlews migrated almost exclusively to Arctic and sub-Arctic Russia for breeding. They left their wintering site mainly during the evening from mid- to late April and returned between the end of June and mid-July. There was no difference in departure times between the sexes. Weather parameters did not impact departure decisions; if departure days coincided with headwind conditions, the birds accounted for this by flying at higher altitudes of up to several kilometres. Curlews breeding further away in areas with late snowmelt departed later. Departures dates varied by only < 4 days in individual curlews tagged over consecutive years.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that the trigger for migration in this long-distance migrant is largely independent of weather conditions but is subject to resource availability in breeding areas. The high intra-individual repeatability of departure days among subsequent years and the lack of relationship to weather parameters suggest the importance of genetic triggers in prompting the start of migration. Further insights into the timing of migration in immatures and closely related birds might help to further unravel the genetic mechanisms triggering migration patterns.

Integrating Causal and Evolutionary Analysis of Life-History Evolution: Arrival Date in a Long-Distant Migrant

In migratory species, the timing of arrival at the breeding grounds is a life-history trait with major fitness consequences. The optimal arrival date varies from year-to-year, and animals use cues to adjust their arrival dates to match this annual variation. However, which cues they use to time their arrival and whether these cues actually predict the annual optimal arrival date is largely unknown. Here, we integrate causal and evolutionary analysis by identifying the environmental variables used by a migratory songbird to time its arrival dates and testing whether these environmental variables also predicted the optimal time to arrive. We used 11 years of male arrival data of a pied flycatcher population. Specifically, we tested whether temperature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values from their breeding grounds in the Netherlands and from their wintering grounds in Ivory Coast explained the variation in arrival date, and whether these variables correlated with the position of the annual fitness peak at the breeding grounds. We found that temperature and NDVI, both from the wintering and the breeding grounds, explained the annual variation in arrival date, but did not correlate with the optimal arrival date. We explore three alternative explanations for this lack of correlation. Firstly, the date of the fitness peak may have been incorrectly estimated because a potentially important component of fitness (i.e., migration date dependent mortality en route or directly upon arrival) could not be measured. Secondly, we focused on male timing but the fitness landscape is also likely to be shaped by female timing. Finally, the correlation has recently disappeared because climate change disrupted the predictive value of the cues that the birds use to time their migration. In the latter case, birds may adapt by altering their sensitivity to temperature and NDVI.

Climatic drivers of (changes in) bat migration phenology at Bracken Cave (USA)

Climate change is drastically changing the timing of biological events across the globe. Changes in the phenology of seasonal migrations between the breeding and wintering grounds have been observed across biological taxa, including birds, mammals, and insects. For birds, strong links have been shown between changes in migration phenology and changes in weather conditions at the wintering, stopover, and breeding areas. For other animal taxa, the current understanding of, and evidence for, climate (change) influences on migration still remains rather limited, mainly due to the lack of long-term phenology datasets. Bracken Cave in Texas (USA) holds one of the largest bat colonies of the world. Using weather radar data, a unique 23-year (1995-2017) long time series was recently produced of the spring and autumn migration phenology of Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis) at Bracken Cave. Here, we analyse these migration phenology time series in combination with gridded temperature, precipitation, and wind data across Mexico and southern USA, to identify the climatic drivers of (changes in) bat migration phenology. Perhaps surprisingly, our extensive spatiotemporal search did not find temperature to influence either spring or autumn migration. Instead, spring migration phenology seems to be predominantly driven by wind conditions at likely wintering or spring stopover areas during the migration period. Autumn migration phenology, on the other hand, seems to be dominated by precipitation to the east and north-east of Bracken Cave. Long-term changes towards more frequent migration and favourable wind conditions have, furthermore, allowed spring migration to occur 16 days earlier. Our results illustrate how some of the remaining knowledge gaps on the influence of climate (change) on bat migration and abundance can be addressed using weather radar analyses.

Temperature change is an important departure cue in nocturnal migrants: controlled experiments with wild-caught birds in a proof-of-concept study

The decision-making process of migrating birds at stopover sites is a complex interplay of the innate migration program and both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. While it is well studied how variation in precipitation, wind and air pressure influence this process, there is less evidence of the effects of temperature changes on the departure decision. Thus, we lack knowledge on how the predicted changes due to global climate change in temperature alone may affect the decision-making process during migration. Aiming to fill parts of this gap, we conducted a proof-of-concept study by manipulating the ambient temperature of temporarily confined wild-caught migrant songbirds under constant feeding conditions. In spring, departure probability increased with a 20°C rise in temperature for both a medium-distance migrant (European robin, Erithacus rubecula) and a long-distance migrant (northern wheatear, Oenanthe oenanthe), and in autumn, departure probabilities of the long-distance migrant both decreased with a 20°C rise and increased with a 20°C drop. Consequently, the temperature is an important departure cue influencing the decision-making process of migrating songbirds. Incorporating causal relationships between changes in temperature and departure probability in migration models could substantially improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on the phenology of migratory birds.

Arrival timing and the influence of weather experienced during the nonbreeding and breeding periods on correlates of reproductive success in female field sparrows (Spizella pusilla) breeding in northeastern Pennsylvania, USA

Increasing evidence suggests that the environment encountered by migrating landbirds during the nonbreeding season, including temperature and precipitation, may influence individuals and population processes in subsequent seasons. However, to date, most studies have focused on linkages between factors encountered during the wintering and breeding periods in long-distance, primarily insectivorous landbirds. Here, we take advantage of a long-term (23 breeding seasons) data set on the arrival and breeding ecology of female field sparrows (Spizella pusilla), a granivorous, short-distance species that winters in the southeastern USA, to look for time periods (windows) over the preceding winter and spring migratory periods when average daily precipitation or temperature may have influenced when a female arrived at breeding grounds in northeastern Pennsylvania and correlates of seasonal reproductive performance. We employed a sliding window analysis approach using weather data obtained from the south of our site (to evaluate effects of weather experienced during the nonbreeding period) and, separately, near our site (to evaluate effects of weather experienced during the breeding period), finding windows in which temperature and precipitation during the nonbreeding period were associated with arrival timing and clutch initiation day and a window in which temperature experienced during the breeding period was associated with clutch initiation day. We did not, however, find evidence that temperature or precipitation, either during the nonbreeding period or breeding period, was associated with clutch size nor total egg volume. Finally, early arriving females initiated clutches early, produced larger clutches, more nests, and more total eggs than later arriving females. Our findings contribute to the growing body of evidence that events experienced prior to the breeding season may influence individuals and population processes in subsequent seasons.

Adverse weather reduces the spatial use of an opportunistic gull

Studying the individual or population response of species to variations in weather is gaining impetus due to increased interest in quantifying the effect of global change on biodiversity. Our goal here was to test the role of meteorological conditions (particularly extreme weather) on the activity budget of a generalist seabird species during its breeding season. To this end we used data from GPS-tracked adult yellow-legged gulls (Larus michahellis). Precipitation and wind had a significant impact on spatial use, reducing foraging distances and forcing gulls to spend a longer period within the colony and promoting a change in habitat use. The results suggest that rainfall and wind forced breeding gulls to desist from the area and habitats used under favourable weather, which might affect chicks’ food provisioning. In a future with increasing rainfall and a higher number of extreme bad weather events, investigation should be conducted to establish the extent to which reduction in spatial use may negatively impact reproduction and, hence, demography.

Weather at the winter and stopover areas determines spring migration onset, progress, and advancements in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds

Climate change causes changes in the timing of life cycle events across all trophic groups. Spring phenology has mostly advanced, but large, unexplained, variations are present between and within species. Each spring, migratory birds travel tens to tens of thousands of kilometers from their wintering to their breeding grounds. For most populations, large uncertainties remain on their exact locations outside the breeding area, and the time spent there or during migration. Assessing climate (change) effects on avian migration phenology has consequently been difficult due to spatial and temporal uncertainties in the weather potentially affecting migration timing. Here, we show for six trans-Saharan long-distance migrants that weather at the wintering and stopover grounds almost entirely (∼80%) explains interannual variation in spring migration phenology. Importantly, our spatiotemporal approach also allows for the systematic exclusion of influences at other locations and times. While increased spring temperatures did contribute strongly to the observed spring migration advancements over the 55-y study period, improvements in wind conditions, especially in the Maghreb and Mediterranean, have allowed even stronger advancements. Flexibility in spring migration timing of long-distance migrants to exogenous factors has been consistently underestimated due to mismatches in space, scale, time, and weather variable type.

Opinion: Is gene mapping in wild populations useful for understanding and predicting adaptation to global change?

Changing environmental conditions will inevitably alter selection pressures. Over the long term, populations have to adapt to these altered conditions by evolutionary change to avoid extinction. Quantifying the 'evolutionary potential' of populations to predict whether they will be able to adapt fast enough to forecasted changes is crucial to fully assess the threat for biodiversity posed by climate change. Technological advances in sequencing and high-throughput genotyping have now made genomic studies possible in a wide range of species. Such studies, in theory, allow an unprecedented understanding of the genomics of ecologically relevant traits and thereby a detailed assessment of the population's evolutionary potential. Aimed at a wider audience than only evolutionary geneticists, this paper gives an overview of how gene-mapping studies have contributed to our understanding and prediction of evolutionary adaptations to climate change, identifies potential reasons why their contribution to understanding adaptation to climate change may remain limited, and highlights approaches to study and predict climate change adaptation that may be more promising, at least in the medium term.

The Potential Role of Migratory Birds in the Rapid Spread of Ticks and Tick-Borne Pathogens in the Changing Climatic and Environmental Conditions in Europe

This opinion piece highlights the role of migratory birds in the spread of ticks and their role in the circulation and dissemination of pathogens in Europe. Birds with different lifestyles, i.e., non-migrants residing in a specific area, or short-, medium-, and long-distance migrants, migrating within one or several distant geographical regions are carriers of a number of ticks and tick-borne pathogens. During seasonal migrations, birds that cover long distances over a short time and stay temporarily in different habitats can introduce tick and pathogen species in areas where they have never occurred. An increase in the geographical range of ticks as well as the global climate changes affecting the pathogens, vectors, and their hosts increase the incidence and the spread of emerging tick-borne diseases worldwide. Tick infestations of birds varied between regions depends on the rhythms of tick seasonal activity and the bird migration rhythms determined by for example, climatic and environmental factors. In areas north of latitude ca. 58°N, immature Ixodes ricinus ticks are collected from birds most frequently, whereas ticks from the Hyalomma marginatum group dominate in areas below 42°N. We concluded that the prognosis of hazards posed by tick-borne pathogens should take into account changes in the migration of birds, hosts of many epidemiologically important tick species.

Ecological markers to monitor migratory bird populations: Integrating citizen science and transboundary management for conservation purposes

Countries share responsibility for the management and conservation of migratory bird species. However, a limited understanding of population dynamics hampers the implementation of harvest and transboundary management. Age-ratios and population density can be useful indicators to assess population dynamics to improve management and conservation actions. Here, the dynamics of an Atlantic population of Common quail Coturnix coturnix, using 32,508 quail samples and 4814 hunter questionnaires over a 20-year period (1996-2016) served as a comparative study for examining age-ratio patterns related to different geographic zones, population density and weather parameters. Results show that age-ratios varied over zones and years, specifically age-ratio 1 (AR1), used as an index of late breeding attempts, varied from 0.1 to 0.21. Age-ratio 2 (AR2), a surrogate of central recruitment, varied from 0.16 to 0.66. Finally, age-ratio 3 (AR3), used as an indicator of the population's annual breeding success, varied from 3.69 to 6.68. Age-ratio is linked to internal and external factors (i.e. effect of rainfall, variations over time and density-dependent relationships) depicting how quail age groups make segregated migration in time and space. Quail age groups perform a complex pattern of migration because of entwined changes in abundance, migration routes and timing, influencing population connectivity and dynamics. Our findings highlight the relevance of citizen science and transboundary agreements to improve management and conservation measures of migrant species. Administrations and policy-makers in developed and developing countries must coordinate efforts to engage hunters in a participatory management systems to achieve sustainability.

Autumn bird migration phenology: A potpourri of wind, precipitation and temperature effects

Climate change has caused a clear and univocal trend towards advancement in spring phenology. Changes in autumn phenology are much more diverse, with advancement, delays, and 'no change' all occurring frequently. For migratory birds, patterns in autumn migration phenology trends have been identified based on ecological and life-history traits. Explaining interspecific variation has nevertheless been challenging, and the underlying mechanisms have remained elusive. Radar studies on non-species-specific autumn migration intensity have repeatedly suggested that there are strong links with weather. In long-term species-specific studies, the variance in autumn migration phenology explained by weather has, nevertheless, been rather low, or a relationship was even lacking entirely. We performed a spatially explicit time window analysis of weather effects on mean autumn passage of four trans-Saharan and six intra-European passerines to gain insights into this apparent contradiction. We analysed data from standardized daily captures at the Heligoland island constant-effort site (Germany), in combination with gridded daily temperature, precipitation and wind data over a 55-year period (1960-2014), across northern Europe. Weather variables at the breeding and stopover grounds explained up to 80% of the species-specific interannual variability in autumn passage. Overall, wind conditions were most important. For intra-European migrants, wind was even twice as important as either temperature or precipitation, and the pattern also held in terms of relative contributions of each climate variable to the temporal trends in autumn phenology. For the trans-Saharan migrants, however, the pattern of relative trend contributions was completely reversed. Temperature and precipitation had strong trend contributions, while wind conditions had only a minor impact because they did not show any strong temporal trends. As such, understanding species-specific effects of climate on autumn phenology not only provides unique insights into each species' ecology but also how these effects shape the observed interspecific heterogeneity in autumn phenological trends.

The effect of weather on the decision to migrate from stopover sites by autumn-migrating ducks

BACKGROUND

Previous investigations of autumn-migrating ducks have reported weak connections between weather conditions and the decision to migrate from stopover sites. We leveraged relatively new weather surveillance radar technology to remotely detect departures of discrete groups of various species of migratory dabbling ducks (Anatidae) in autumn to more directly assess the effect of specific weather conditions on departure from discrete stopover sites.

METHODS

Using radar data collected over fifteen years (1995-2009), we documented a consistent phenomenon where a single, identifiable group departed from our study area on 30% of days during the autumn study period, and no ducks departed on the other days. We gathered weather variables from nearby stations and used them to develop competing models to explain temporal patterns of departure versus non-departure to better understand the potential mechanisms associated with binomial patterns of departures.

RESULTS

The best approximating model of departure probability was our integrated model, which included variables accounting for wind aloft direction favorable for departure (i.e., tailwind), absence of precipitation, and a partially or completely clear sky. The integrated model accounted for all model weight in the candidate set and explained 55% of the variation in departure probability. Estimated probability of departure was 0.76 after parameterizing the best model with favorable conditions for all covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results contrasted those of previous studies of autumn duck migration as a small set of simplistic, extrinsic conditions substantially influenced departure decision.