Global assessment of relationships between climate and tree growth

Non-linear response of Norway spruce to climate variation along elevational and age gradients in the Carpathians

Climate change, namely increased warming coupled with a rise in extreme events (e.g., droughts, storms, heatwaves), is negatively affecting forest ecosystems worldwide. In these ecosystems, growth dynamics and biomass accumulation are driven mainly by environmental constraints, inter-tree competition, and disturbance regimes. Usually, climate-growth relationships are assessed by linear correlation due to the simplicity and straightforwardness of modeling. However, applying this method may bias results, since the ecological and physiological responses of trees to environmental factors are non-linear, and usually bell-shaped. In the Eastern Carpathian, Norway spruce is at the southeasternmost edge of its natural occurrence; this region is thus potentially vulnerable to climate change. A non-linear assessment of climate-growth relationships using machine-learning techniques for Norway spruce in this area had not been conducted prior to this study. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed a large tree-ring network from 158 stands, with over 3000 trees of varying age distributed along an elevational gradient. Our results showed that non-linearity in the growth-climate response of spruce was season-specific: temperatures from the previous autumn and current growing season, along with water availability during winter, induced a bell-shaped response. Moreover, we found that at low elevations, spruce growth was mainly limited by water availability in the growing season, while winter temperatures are likely to have had a slight influence along the entire elevational gradient. Furthermore, at elevations lower than 1400 m, spruce trees were also found to be sensitive to previous autumn water availability. Overall, our results shed new light on the response of Norway spruce to climate in the Carpathians, which may aid in management decisions.

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

The effects of solar radiation on daily and seasonal stem increment of canopy trees in European temperate old-growth forests

It is well established that solar irradiance greatly influences tree metabolism and growth through photosynthesis, but its effects acting through individual climate metrics have not yet been well quantified. Understanding these effects is crucial for assessing the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems. To describe the effects of solar irradiance on tree growth, we installed 110 automatic dendrometers in two old-growth mountain forest reserves in Central Europe, performed detailed terrestrial and aerial laser scanning to obtain precise tree profiles, and used these to simulate the sum of solar irradiance received by each tree on a daily basis. Generalized linear mixed-effect models were applied to simulate the probability of growth and the growth intensity over seven growing seasons. Our results demonstrated various contrasting effects of solar irradiance on the growth of canopy trees. On the one hand, the highest daily growth rates corresponded with the highest solar irradiance potentials (i.e. the longest photoperiod). Intense solar irradiance significantly decreased tree growth, through an increase in the vapor pressure deficit. These effects were consistent for all species but had different magnitude. Tree growth is the most effective on long rainy/cloudy days with low solar irradiance.

Decadal-scale variability and warming affect spring timing and forest growth across the western Great Lakes region

The Great Lakes region of North America has warmed by 1-2 °C on average since pre-industrial times, with the most pronounced changes observable during winter and spring. Interannual variability in temperatures remains high, however, due to the influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns that modulate the warming trend across years. Variations in spring temperatures determine growing season length and plant phenology, with implications for whole ecosystem function. Studying how both internal climate variability and the "secular" warming trend interact to produce trends in temperature is necessary to estimate potential ecological responses to future warming scenarios. This study examines how external anthropogenic forcing and decadal-scale variability influence spring temperatures across the western Great Lakes region and estimates the sensitivity of regional forests to temperature using long-term growth records from tree-rings and satellite data. Using a modeling approach designed to test for regime shifts in dynamic time series, this work shows that mid-continent spring climatology was strongly influenced by the 1976/1977 phase change in North Pacific atmospheric circulation, and that regional forests show a strengthening response to spring temperatures during the last half-century.

Tree ring segmentation using UNEt TRansformer neural network on stained microsections for quantitative wood anatomy

Forests are critical in the terrestrial carbon cycle, and the knowledge of their response to ongoing climate change will be crucial for determining future carbon fluxes and climate trajectories. In areas with contrasting seasons, trees form discrete annual rings that can be assigned to calendar years, allowing to extract valuable information about how trees respond to the environment. The anatomical structure of wood provides highly-resolved information about the reaction and adaptation of trees to climate. Quantitative wood anatomy helps to retrieve this information by measuring wood at the cellular level using high-resolution images of wood micro-sections. However, whereas large advances have been made in identifying cellular structures, obtaining meaningful cellular information is still hampered by the correct annual tree ring delimitation on the images. This is a time-consuming task that requires experienced operators to manually delimit ring boundaries. Classic methods of automatic segmentation based on pixel values are being replaced by new approaches using neural networks which are capable of distinguishing structures, even when demarcations require a high level of expertise. Although neural networks have been used for tree ring segmentation on macroscopic images of wood, the complexity of cell patterns in stained microsections of broadleaved species requires adaptive models to accurately accomplish this task. We present an automatic tree ring boundary delineation using neural networks on stained cross-sectional microsection images from beech cores. We trained a UNETR, a combined neural network of UNET and the attention mechanisms of Visual Transformers, to automatically segment annual ring boundaries. Its accuracy was evaluated considering discrepancies with manual segmentation and the consequences of disparity for the goals of quantitative wood anatomy analyses. In most cases (91.8%), automatic segmentation matched or improved manual segmentation, and the rate of vessels assignment to annual rings was similar between the two categories, even when manual segmentation was considered better. The application of convolutional neural networks-based models outperforms human operator segmentations when confronting ring boundary delimitation using specific parameters for quantitative wood anatomy analysis. Current advances on segmentation models may reduce the cost of massive and accurate data collection for quantitative wood anatomy.

A species' response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree-ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine-learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial-temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960-2010. We used the block cross-validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040-2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early-spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts.

Climate response of a glacial relict conifer across its distribution range is invariant in space but not in time

Climate change impacts on forest trees will be particularly severe for relict species endemic to the subalpine forest, such as Pinus cembra in the Alps and Carpathians. Most current knowledge about the response of this species to climate comes from tree-ring width analysis. However, this approach cannot perform in-depth and highly time-resolved analysis on the climate influence on specific growth processes and xylem functions. We analyzed xylem anatomical traits from six sites covering most of the longitudinal range of this species. Associations between climate and cell number, lumen area and cell wall thickness were computed for the 1920-2010 period using climate records aligned to degree-day temperature sum thresholds. The anatomical chronologies were clearly distinct between the Alps and Carpathians. However, climate responses were similar for all sites, suggesting common species-specific response mechanisms. Temperature showed a positive correlation with both cell number and cell wall thickness. Cell lumen size exhibited an early positive association, followed by strong negative association with temperature and a positive one with precipitation. This highlights that the cell enlargement process was negatively related to high temperature at high elevation, where meristematic processes are rather supposed to be constrained by low temperatures. Therefore, long-term climate warming can have negative consequences on the xylem potential to transport water at all investigated sites. Moreover, in the last 30 years, we observed a slight anticipation of some responses and a decrease in climate sensitivity of some xylem parameters. Our findings provide evidence of temporally unstable but spatially consistent climate response of Pinus cembra from the Alps to the Carpathians. The low diversity in xylem phenotypic responses to climate suggests that future warming could extensively and evenly affect the species throughout its entire distribution.

Major tree species of Central European forests differ in their proportion of positive, negative, and nonstationary growth trends

Temperate forests are undergoing significant transformations due to the influence of climate change, including varying responses of different tree species to increasing temperature and drought severity. To comprehensively understand the full range of growth responses, representative datasets spanning extensive site and climatic gradients are essential. This study utilizes tree-ring data from 550 sites from the temperate forests of Czechia to assess growth trends of six dominant Central European tree species (European beech, Norway spruce, Scots pine, silver fir, sessile and pedunculate oak) over 1990-2014. By modeling mean growth series for each species and site, and employing principal component analysis, we identified the predominant growth trends. Over the study period, linear growth trends were evident across most sites (56% increasing, 32% decreasing, and 10% neutral). The proportion of sites with stationary positive trends increased from low toward high elevations, whereas the opposite was true for the stationary negative trends. Notably, within the middle range of their distribution (between 500 and 700 m a.s.l.), Norway spruce and European beech exhibited a mix of positive and negative growth trends. While Scots pine growth trends showed no clear elevation-based pattern, silver fir and oaks displayed consistent positive growth trends regardless of site elevation, indicating resilience to the ongoing warming. We demonstrate divergent growth trajectories across space and among species. These findings are particularly important as recent warming has triggered a gradual shift in the elevation range of optimal growth conditions for most tree species and has also led to a decoupling of growth trends between lowlands and mountain areas. As a result, further future shifts in the elevation range and changes in species diversity of European temperate forests can be expected.

Climate-driven tree growth and mortality in the Black Forest, Germany-Long-term observations

Episodic tree mortality can be caused by various reasons. This study describes climate-driven tree mortality and tree growth in the Black Forest mountain range in Germany. It is based on a 68-year consistent data series describing the annual mortality of all trees growing in a forest area of almost 250 thousand ha. The study excludes mortality caused by storm, snow and ice, and fire. The sequence of the remaining mortality, the so-called "desiccated trees," is analyzed and compared with the sequence of the climatic water balance during the growing season and the annual radial growth of Norway spruce in the Black Forest. The annual radial growth series covers 121 years and the climatic water balance series 140 years. These unique time series enable a quantitative assessment of multidecadal drought and heat impacts on growth and mortality of forest trees on a regional spatial scale. Data compiled here suggest that the mortality of desiccated trees in the Black Forest during the last 68 years is driven by the climatic water balance. Decreasing climatic water balance coincided with an increase in tree mortality and growth decline. Consecutive hot and dry summers enhance mortality and growth decline as a consequence of drought legacies lasting several years. The sensitivity of tree growth and mortality to changes in the climatic water balance increases with the decreasing trend of the climatic water balance. The findings identify the climatic water balance as the main driver of mortality and growth variation during the 68-year observation period on a landscape-scale including a variety of different sites. They suggest that bark beetle population dynamics modify mortality rates. They as well provide evidence that the mortality during the last 140 years never was as high as in the most recent years.

Co-developing an international TLS network for the 3D ecological understanding of global trees: System architecture, remote sensing models, and functional prospects

Trees are spread worldwide, as the watchmen that experience the intricate ecological effects caused by various environmental factors. In order to better understand such effects, it is preferential to achieve finely and fully mapped global trees and their environments. For this task, aerial and satellite-based remote sensing (RS) methods have been developed. However, a critical branch regarding the apparent forms of trees has significantly fallen behind due to the technical deficiency found within their global-scale surveying methods. Now, terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), a state-of-the-art RS technology, is useful for the in situ three-dimensional (3D) mapping of trees and their environments. Thus, we proposed co-developing an international TLS network as a macroscale ecotechnology to increase the 3D ecological understanding of global trees. First, we generated the system architecture and tested the available RS models to deepen its ground stakes. Then, we verified the ecotechnology regarding the identification of its theoretical feasibility, a review of its technical preparations, and a case testification based on a prototype we designed. Next, we conducted its functional prospects by previewing its scientific and technical potentials and its functional extensibility. Finally, we summarized its technical and scientific challenges, which can be used as the cutting points to promote the improvement of this technology in future studies. Overall, with the implication of establishing a novel cornerstone-sense ecotechnology, the co-development of an international TLS network can revolutionize the 3D ecological understanding of global trees and create new fields of research from 3D global tree structural ecology to 3D macroecology.

Tree-ring isotopes from the Swiss Alps reveal non-climatic fingerprints of cyclic insect population outbreaks over the past 700 years

Recent experiments have underlined the potential of δ2H in tree-ring cellulose as a physiological indicator of shifts in autotrophic versus heterotrophic processes (i.e., the use of fresh versus stored non-structural carbohydrates). However, the impact of these processes has not yet been quantified under natural conditions. Defoliator outbreaks disrupt tree functioning and carbon assimilation, stimulating remobilization, therefore providing a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of changes in δ2H. By exploring a 700-year tree-ring isotope chronology from Switzerland, we assessed the impact of 79 larch budmoth (LBM, Zeiraphera griseana [Hübner]) outbreaks on the growth of its host tree species, Larix decidua [Mill]. The LBM outbreaks significantly altered the tree-ring isotopic signature, creating a 2H-enrichment and an 18O- and 13C-depletion. Changes in tree physiological functioning in outbreak years are shown by the decoupling of δ2H and δ18O (O-H relationship), in contrast to the positive correlation in non-outbreak years. Across the centuries, the O-H relationship in outbreak years was not significantly affected by temperature, indicating that non-climatic physiological processes dominate over climate in determining δ2H. We conclude that the combination of these isotopic parameters can serve as a metric for assessing changes in physiological mechanisms over time.

Ecological and methodological drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth response to climate

Radial tree growth is sensitive to environmental conditions, making observed growth increments an important indicator of climate change effects on forest growth. However, unprecedented climate variability could lead to non-stationarity, that is, a decoupling of tree growth responses from climate over time, potentially inducing biases in climate reconstructions and forest growth projections. Little is known about whether and to what extent environmental conditions, species, and model type and resolution affect the occurrence and magnitude of non-stationarity. To systematically assess potential drivers of non-stationarity, we compiled tree-ring width chronologies of two conifer species, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, distributed across cold, dry, and mixed climates. We analyzed 147 sites across the Europe including the distribution margins of these species as well as moderate sites. We calibrated four numerical models (linear vs. non-linear, daily vs. monthly resolution) to simulate growth chronologies based on temperature and soil moisture data. Climate-growth models were tested in independent verification periods to quantify their non-stationarity, which was assessed based on bootstrapped transfer function stability tests. The degree of non-stationarity varied between species, site climatic conditions, and models. Chronologies of P. sylvestris showed stronger non-stationarity compared with Picea abies stands with a high degree of stationarity. Sites with mixed climatic signals were most affected by non-stationarity compared with sites sampled at cold and dry species distribution margins. Moreover, linear models with daily resolution exhibited greater non-stationarity compared with monthly-resolved non-linear models. We conclude that non-stationarity in climate-growth responses is a multifactorial phenomenon driven by the interaction of site climatic conditions, tree species, and methodological features of the modeling approach. Given the existence of multiple drivers and the frequent occurrence of non-stationarity, we recommend that temporal non-stationarity rather than stationarity should be considered as the baseline model of climate-growth response for temperate forests.

Improving ecological insights from dendroecological studies of Arctic shrub dynamics: Research gaps and potential solutions

Rapid climate change has been driving changes in Arctic vegetation in recent decades, with increased shrub dominance in many tundra ecosystems. Dendroecological observations of tundra shrubs can provide insight into current and past growth and recruitment patterns, both key components for understanding and predicting ongoing and future Arctic shrub dynamics. However, generalizing these dynamics is challenging as they are highly scale-dependent and vary among sites, species, and individuals. Here, we provide a perspective on how some of these challenges can be overcome. Based on a targeted literature search of dendrochronological studies from 2005 to 2022, we highlight five research gaps that currently limit dendro-based studies from revealing cross-scale ecological insight into shrub dynamics across the Arctic biome. We further discuss the related research priorities, suggesting that future studies could consider: 1) increasing focus on intra- and interspecific variation, 2) including demographic responses other than radial growth, 3) incorporating drivers, in addition to warming, at different spatial and temporal scales, 4) implementing systematic and unbiased sampling approaches, and 5) investigating the cellular mechanisms behind the observed responses. Focusing on these aspects in dendroecological studies could improve the value of the field for addressing cross-scale and plant community-framed ecological questions. We outline how this could be facilitated through the integration of community-based dendroecology and dendroanatomy with remote sensing approaches. Integrating new technologies and a more multidisciplinary approach in dendroecological research could provide key opportunities to close important knowledge gaps in our understanding of scale-dependencies, as well as intra- and inter-specific variation, in vegetation community dynamics across the Arctic tundra.

Reduced diurnal temperature range mitigates drought impacts on larch tree growth in North China

Forests are facing climate changes such as warmer temperatures, accelerated snowmelt, increased drought, as well as changing diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) and cloud cover regimes. How tree growth is influenced by the changes in daily to monthly temperatures and its associations with droughts has been extensively investigated, however, few studies have focused on how changes in sub-daily temperatures i.e., DTR, influence tree growth during drought events. Here, we used a network of Larix principis-rupprechtii tree-ring data from 1989 to 2018, covering most of the distribution of planted larch across North China, to investigate how DTR, cloud cover and their interactions influence the relationship between drought stress and tree growth. DTR showed a negative correlation with larch growth in 95 % of sites (r_mean = -0.30, significant in 42 % of sites). Cloud cover was positively correlated with growth in 87 % of sites (r_mean = 0.13, significant in 5 % of sites). Enhanced tree growth was found at lower DTR in the absence of severe drought. Our findings highlight that in the absence of severe droughts, reduced DTR benefits tree growth, while increased cloud cover tended to benefit tree growth only during severe drought periods. Given how DTR influences drought impacts on tree growth, net tree growth was found to be larger in regions with smaller DTR.

Contemporary tree growth shows altered climate memory

Trees are long-lived organisms, exhibiting temporally complex growth arising from strong climatic "memory." But conditions are becoming increasingly arid in the western USA. Using a century-long tree-ring network, we find altered climate memory across the entire range of a widespread western US conifer: growth is supported by precipitation falling further into the past (+15 months), while increasingly impacted by more recent temperature conditions (-8 months). Tree-ring datasets can be biased, so we confirm altered climate memory in a second, ecologically-sampled tree-ring network. Predicted drought responses show trees may have also become more sensitive to repeat drought. Finally, plots near sites with relatively longer precipitation memory and shorter temperature memory had significantly lower recent mortality rates (R²  = 0.61). We argue that increased drought frequency has altered climate memory, demonstrate how non-stationarity may arise from failure to account for memory, and suggest memory length may be predictive of future tree mortality.

Applying space-for-time substitution to infer the growth response to climate may lead to overestimation of tree maladaptation: Evidence from the North American White Spruce Network

Under climate change circumstances, increasing studies have reported the temporal instability of tree growth responses to climate, which poses a major challenge to linearly extrapolating past climate and future growth dynamics using tree-ring data. Space-for-time substitution (SFTS) is a potential solution to this problem that is widely used in the dendrochronology field to project past or future temporal growth response trajectories from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the projected accuracy of the SFTS in the climate effects on tree growth remains uncertain. Here, we empirically test the SFTS method by comparing the effect of spatial and temporal climate variations on climate responses of white spruce (Picea glauca), which has a transcontinental range in North America. We first applied a response surface regression model to capture the variations in growth responses along the spatial climate gradients. The results showed that the relationships between growth and June temperature varied along spatial climate gradients in a predictable way. And their relationships varied mainly along with local temperate condition. Then, the projected correlation coefficients between growth and climate using SFTS were compared against the observed. We found that the growth response changes caused by spatial versus temporal climate variations showed opposite trends. Moreover, the projected correlation coefficients using the SFTS were significantly lower than the observed. This finding suggests that applying the SFTS to project the growth response of white spruce might lead to an overestimation of the degree of tree maladaptation in future climate scenarios. And the overestimation is likely to get weaker from Alaska and Yukon Territory in the west to Quebec in the east. Although this is only a case study of the SFTS method for projecting tree growth response, our findings suggest that direct application of the SFTS method may not be applicable to all regions and all tree species.

Re-assessment of the climatic controls on the carbon and water fluxes of a boreal aspen forest over 1996-2016: Changing sensitivity to long-term climatic conditions

Recent evidence suggests that the relationships between climate and boreal tree growth are generally non-stationary; however, it remains uncertain whether the relationships between climate and carbon (C) fluxes of boreal forests are stationary or have changed over recent decades. In this study, we used continuous eddy-covariance and microclimate data over 21 years (1996-2016) from a 100-year-old trembling aspen stand in central Saskatchewan, Canada to assess the relationships between climate and ecosystem C and water fluxes. Over the study period, the most striking climatic event was a severe, 3-year drought (2001-2003). Gross ecosystem production (GEP) showed larger interannual variability than ecosystem respiration (R_e ) over 1996-2016, but R_e was the dominant component contributing to the interannual variation in net ecosystem production (NEP) during post-drought years. The interannual variations in evapotranspiration (ET) and C fluxes were primarily driven by temperature and secondarily by water availability. Two-factor linear models combining precipitation and temperature performed well in explaining the interannual variation in C and water fluxes (R²  > .5). The temperature sensitivities of all three C fluxes (NEP, GEP and R_e ) declined over the study period (p < .05), and, as a result, the phenological controls on annual NEP weakened. The decreasing temperature sensitivity of the C fluxes may reflect changes in forest structure, related to the over-maturity of the aspen stand at 100 years of age, and exacerbated by high tree mortality following the severe 2001-2003 drought. These results may provide an early warning signal of driver shift or even an abrupt status shift of aspen forest dynamics. They may also imply a universal weakening in the relationship between temperature and GEP as forests become over-mature, associated with the structural and compositional changes that accompany forest ageing.

Paired analysis of tree ring width and carbon isotopes indicates when controls on tropical tree growth change from light to water limitations

Light and water availability are likely to vary over the lifespan of closed-canopy forest trees, with understory trees experiencing greater limitations to growth by light and canopy trees greater limitation due to drought. As drought and shade have opposing effects on isotope discrimination (Δ13C), paired measurement of ring width and Δ13C can potentially be used to differentiate between water and light limitations on tree growth. We tested this approach for Cedrela trees from three tropical forests in Bolivia and Mexico that differ in rainfall and canopy structure. Using lifetime ring width and Δ13C data for trees of up to and over 200 years old, we assessed how controls on tree growth changed from understory to the canopy. Growth and Δ13C are mostly anti-correlated in the understory, but this anti-correlation disappeared or weakened when trees reached the canopy, especially at the wettest site. This indicates that understory growth variation is controlled by photosynthetic carbon assimilation due to variation in light levels. Once trees reached the canopy, inter-annual variation in growth and Δ13C at one of the dry sites showed positive correlations, indicating that inter-annual variation in growth is driven by variation in water stress affecting stomatal conductance. Paired analysis of ring widths and carbon isotopes provides significant insight in what environmental factors control growth over a tree's life; strong light limitations for understory trees in closed-canopy moist forests switched to drought stress for (sub)canopy trees in dry forests. We show that combined isotope and ring width measurements can significantly improve our insights in tree functioning and be used to disentangle limitations due to shade from those due to drought.

An earlier start of the thermal growing season enhances tree growth in cold humid areas but not in dry areas

Climatic warming alters the onset, duration and cessation of the vegetative season. While previous studies have shown a tight link between thermal conditions and leaf phenology, less is known about the impacts of phenological changes on tree growth. Here, we assessed the relationships between the start of the thermal growing season and tree growth across the extratropical Northern Hemisphere using 3,451 tree-ring chronologies and daily climatic data for 1948-2014. An earlier start of the thermal growing season promoted growth in regions with high ratios of precipitation to temperature but limited growth in cold-dry regions. Path analyses indicated that an earlier start of the thermal growing season enhanced growth primarily by alleviating thermal limitations on wood formation in boreal forests and by lengthening the period of growth in temperate and Mediterranean forests. Semi-arid and dry subalpine forests, however, did not benefit from an earlier onset of growth and a longer growing season, presumably due to associated water loss and/or more frequent early spring frosts. These emergent patterns of how climatic impacts on wood phenology affect tree growth at regional to hemispheric scales hint at how future phenological changes may affect the carbon sequestration capacity of extratropical forest ecosystems.

Wood Formation Modeling - A Research Review and Future Perspectives

Wood formation has received considerable attention across various research fields as a key process to model. Historical and contemporary models of wood formation from various disciplines have encapsulated hypotheses such as the influence of external (e.g., climatic) or internal (e.g., hormonal) factors on the successive stages of wood cell differentiation. This review covers 17 wood formation models from three different disciplines, the earliest from 1968 and the latest from 2020. The described processes, as well as their external and internal drivers and their level of complexity, are discussed. This work is the first systematic cataloging, characterization, and process-focused review of wood formation models. Remaining open questions concerning wood formation processes are identified, and relate to: (1) the extent of hormonal influence on the final tree ring structure; (2) the mechanism underlying the transition from earlywood to latewood in extratropical regions; and (3) the extent to which carbon plays a role as "active" driver or "passive" substrate for growth. We conclude by arguing that wood formation models remain to be fully exploited, with the potential to contribute to studies concerning individual tree carbon sequestration-storage dynamics and regional to global carbon sequestration dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models.

Limitation by vapour pressure deficit shapes different intra-annual growth patterns of diffuse- and ring-porous temperate broadleaves

Understanding the effects of temperature and moisture on radial growth is vital for assessing the impacts of climate change on carbon and water cycles. However, studies observing growth at sub-daily temporal scales remain scarce. We analysed sub-daily growth dynamics and its climatic drivers recorded by point dendrometers for 35 trees of three temperate broadleaved species during the years 2015-2020. We isolated irreversible growth driven by cambial activity from the dendrometer records. Next, we compared the intra-annual growth patterns among species and delimited their climatic optima. The growth of all species peaked at air temperatures between 12 and 16°C and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) below 0.1 kPa. Acer pseudoplatanus and Fagus sylvatica, both diffuse-porous, sustained growth under suboptimal VPD. Ring-porous Quercus robur experienced a steep decline of growth rates with reduced air humidity. This resulted in multiple irregular growth peaks of Q. robur during the year. By contrast, the growth patterns of the diffuse-porous species were always right-skewed unimodal with a peak in June between day of the year 150-170. Intra-annual growth patterns are shaped more by VPD than temperature. The different sensitivity of radial growth to VPD is responsible for unimodal growth patterns in both diffuse-porous species and multimodal growth pattern in Q. robur.

Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests

Tree rings provide an invaluable long-term record for understanding how climate and other drivers shape tree growth and forest productivity. However, conventional tree-ring analysis methods were not designed to simultaneously test effects of climate, tree size, and other drivers on individual growth. This has limited the potential to test ecologically relevant hypotheses on tree growth sensitivity to environmental drivers and their interactions with tree size. Here, we develop and apply a new method to simultaneously model nonlinear effects of primary climate drivers, reconstructed tree diameter at breast height (DBH), and calendar year in generalized least squares models that account for the temporal autocorrelation inherent to each individual tree's growth. We analyze data from 3811 trees representing 40 species at 10 globally distributed sites, showing that precipitation, temperature, DBH, and calendar year have additively, and often interactively, influenced annual growth over the past 120 years. Growth responses were predominantly positive to precipitation (usually over ≥3-month seasonal windows) and negative to temperature (usually maximum temperature, over ≤3-month seasonal windows), with concave-down responses in 63% of relationships. Climate sensitivity commonly varied with DBH (45% of cases tested), with larger trees usually more sensitive. Trends in ring width at small DBH were linked to the light environment under which trees established, but basal area or biomass increments consistently reached maxima at intermediate DBH. Accounting for climate and DBH, growth rate declined over time for 92% of species in secondary or disturbed stands, whereas growth trends were mixed in older forests. These trends were largely attributable to stand dynamics as cohorts and stands age, which remain challenging to disentangle from global change drivers. By providing a parsimonious approach for characterizing multiple interacting drivers of tree growth, our method reveals a more complete picture of the factors influencing growth than has previously been possible.

Number of growth days and not length of the growth period determines radial stem growth of temperate trees

Radial stem growth dynamics at seasonal resolution are essential to understand how forests respond to climate change. We studied daily radial growth of 160 individuals of seven temperate tree species at 47 sites across Switzerland over 8 years. Growth of all species peaked in the early part of the growth season and commenced shortly before the summer solstice, but with species-specific seasonal patterns. Day length set a window of opportunity for radial growth. Within this window, the probability of daily growth was constrained particularly by air and soil moisture, resulting in intermittent growth to occur only on 29 to 77 days (30% to 80%) within the growth period. The number of days with growth largely determined annual growth, whereas the growth period length contributed less. We call for accounting for these non-linear intra-annual and species-specific growth dynamics in tree and forest models to reduce uncertainties in predictions under climate change.

Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends

The current warming of the oceans has been shown to have detrimental effects for a number of species. An understanding of the underlying mechanisms may be hampered by the non-linearity and non-stationarity of the relationships between temperature and demography, and by the insufficient length of available time series. Most demographic time series are too short to study the effects of climate on wildlife in the classical sense of meteorological patterns over at least 30 years. Here we present a harvest time series of Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) that goes back as far as 1880. It originates in the world's largest puffin colony, in southwest Iceland, which has recently experienced a strong decline. By estimating an annual chick production index for 128 years, we found prolonged periods of strong correlations between local sea surface temperature (SST) and chick production. The sign of decennial correlations switches three times during this period, where the phases of strong negative correlations between puffin productivity and SST correspond to the early 20th century Arctic warming period and to the most recent decades. Most of the variation (72%) in chick production is explained by a model in which productivity peaks at an SST of 7.1°C, clearly rejecting the assumption of a linear relationship. There is also evidence supporting non-stationarity: The SST at which puffins production peaked has increased by 0.24°C during the 20th century, although the increase in average SST during the same period has been more than three times faster. The best supported models indicate that the population's decline is at least partially caused by the increasing SST around Iceland.

Run to the hills: Forest growth responsiveness to drought increased at higher elevation during the late 20th century

Climate warming is expected to enhance forest growth in cold-limited biomes while triggering reductions in drought-limited biomes. However, as temperature raises, it is unclear how temperature- and drought-growth couplings shift across elevation gradients in different biomes. We still lack comprehensive analyses on how altitude modulates the influence of temperature and drought on tree growth during the second half of the 20th century when climate warming accelerated. We compared the worldwide responses of tree growth (RWI, ring-width indices) to two of its major climatic constraints, growing-season minimum temperatures and drought (SPEI index), across biomes and elevation gradients during two periods with different warming rates (1960-1980 vs. 1980-2000). We found a decrease in the correlations of minimum temperatures with growth, but a strengthening of drought-growth relationships. However, these patterns varied across biomes because correlations between growth and temperature decreased in temperate forests and woodland shrubland, while correlations between growth and SPEI increased in boreal forests and decreased in temperate forests. Differences in growth responsiveness to climate between the two periods were more marked for mid-latitude forests situated between 1200 and 1600 m. The slopes of the relationships between growth-temperature correlations and elevation decreased in late spring and midsummer. The slopes of the relationships between growth-drought correlations and elevation increased in temperate forests and woodland shrubland suggesting that drought impacts are "climbing" in these biomes. Temperature controls on forest growth are relaxing as the climate warms, while drought is becoming a more significant constraint for tree growth, particularly for mid-elevation forests and in drought-prone woodland and shrubland. The strengthening of drought-growth coupling should be considered in vegetation models to reduce the uncertainty on forest climate mitigation.

Extreme Growth Increments Reveal Local and Regional Climatic Signals in Two Pinus pinaster Populations

Tree rings are valuable proxies of past climate that allow inferring past growth responses to climate variability and extreme events, which is only possible considering that the relationship between tree growth and environmental conditions is linear and stable over time. However, in the last decades, divergent growth patterns have been observed in trees from the same forest stand, while unprecedented growth convergence was observed between trees from distant locations. Here, we use a new approach that considers convergent and divergent event years in two populations of Pinus pinaster Aiton in an altitudinal and oceanic-continental gradient to investigate what is triggering divergence and convergence in tree growth. The two study sites are Tocha (TCH), a plantation on sand dunes at low altitude near the ocean, and Serra da Estrela (SdE), a mountain plantation located at 1,100 m altitude, 100 km away from the ocean. The analysis of the climatic conditions in convergent growth years revealed that positive convergent growth was related to above average precipitation in previous winter and that negative convergent growth was related to below average precipitation during the growing season. Divergent growth revealed a temperature signal with warmer temperatures in spring promoting growth in SdE and growth reduction in TCH. Convergent growth was associated with a regional climatic signal, reinforcing the importance of precipitation in the Mediterranean region, and divergent growth to site conditions, revealing local adaptation. The information gathered in this study gives valuable insights on the response of P. pinaster to extreme climatic events, allowing for more adjusted management strategies of Mediterranean pine forests.

Tree growth responses to temporal variation in rainfall differ across a continental-scale climatic gradient

Globally, many biomes are being impacted by significant shifts in total annual rainfall as well as increasing variability of rainfall within and among years. Such changes can have potentially large impacts on plant productivity and growth, but remain largely unknown, particularly for much of the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate how growth of the widespread conifer, Callitris columellaris varied with inter-annual variation in the amount, intensity and frequency of rainfall events over the last century and between semi-arid (<500 mm mean annual rainfall) and tropical (>800 mm mean annual rainfall) biomes in Australia. We used linear and polynomial regression models to investigate the strength and shape of the relationships between growth (ring width) and rainfall. At semi-arid sites, growth was strongly and linearly related to rainfall amount, regardless of differences in the seasonality and intensity of rainfall. The linear shape of the relationship indicates that predicted future declines in mean rainfall will have proportional negative impacts on long-term tree growth in semi-arid biomes. In contrast, growth in the tropics showed a weak and asymmetrical ('concave-down') response to rainfall amount, where growth was less responsive to changes in rainfall amount at the higher end of the rainfall range (>1250 mm annual rainfall) than at the lower end (<1000 mm annual rainfall). The asymmetric relationship indicates that long-term growth rates of Callitris in the tropics are more sensitive to increased inter-annual variability of rainfall than to changes in the mean amount of rainfall. Our findings are consistent with observations that the responses of vegetation to changes in the mean or variability of rainfall differ between mesic and semi-arid biomes. These results highlight how contrasting growth responses of a widespread species across a hydroclimatic gradient can inform understanding of potential sensitivity of different biomes to climatic variability and change.

Stable Isotopes in Tree Rings of Pinus heldreichii Can Indicate Climate Variability over the Eastern Mediterranean Region

A long-term context is important for understanding past climatic variability. Although tree-ring widths (TRWs) are widely used as a proxy for reconstructing past climate, the use of annually-resolved values of δ13C and δ18O tree-ring stable isotopes (TRSIs) is increasing and may provide further valuable information. Here, we present a 487-year-long TRW chronology and 240-year-long TRSI chronology for Bosnian pine (Pinus heldreichii H. Christ) and compare them to each other. We demonstrate that both δ13C and δ18O values are better proxies for temperature, precipitation, and drought than TRW. The correlations between these climate parameters and TRSIs are strongest for the combined summer (JJA) period. The results of temporal and spatial field correlation indicate that TRSI chronologies are stable, reliable proxies for JJA precipitation reconstruction over the whole Balkan Peninsula and surrounding eastern Mediterranean region. However, the stability of the temperature signal of the both δ13C and δ18O chronologies declines after the 1950s. Our work supports the emerging evidence that TRSI data track climate variability more accurately than a conventional TRW approach and can be subsequently used for the reconstruction of past climate.

Forest responses to last-millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity

Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under-constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen-inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and biomass for the last millennium with five ecosystem model simulations. In both observations and models, spatial patterns in ecosystem responses to hydroclimate variability are strongly governed by ecosystem sensitivity rather than climate exposure. Ecosystem sensitivity was higher in models than observations and highest in simpler models. Model-data comparisons suggest that interactions among biodiversity, demography and ecophysiology processes dampen the sensitivity of forest composition and biomass to climate variability and change. Integrating ecosystem models with observations from timescales extending beyond the instrumental record can better understand and forecast the mechanisms regulating forest sensitivity to climate variability in a complex and changing world.

Continental-scale tree-ring-based projection of Douglas-fir growth: Testing the limits of space-for-time substitution

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree-ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space-for-time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed-effects model to capture ring-width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas-fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi-arid interior. Ring-width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas-fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed-effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree-ring networks and results as a calibration target for next-generation vegetation models.