Living on the edge: A continental-scale assessment of forest vulnerability to drought

Spectral ecophysiology: hyperspectral pressure-volume curves to estimate leaf turgor loss

Turgor loss point (TLP) is an important proxy for plant drought tolerance, species habitat suitability, and drought-induced plant mortality risk. Thus, TLP serves as a critical tool for evaluating climate change impacts on plants, making it imperative to develop high-throughput and in situ methods to measure TLP. We developed hyperspectral pressure-volume curves (PV curves) to estimate TLP using leaf spectral reflectance. We used partial least square regression models to estimate water potential (Ψ) and relative water content (RWC) for two species, Frangula caroliniana and Magnolia grandiflora. RWC and Ψ's model for each species had R2 ≥ 0.7 and %RMSE = 7-10. We constructed PV curves with model estimates and compared the accuracy of directly measured and spectra-predicted TLP. Our findings indicate that leaf spectral measurements are an alternative method for estimating TLP. F. caroliniana TLP's values were -1.62 ± 0.15 (means ± SD) and -1.62 ± 0.34 MPa for observed and reflectance predicted, respectively (P > 0.05), while M. grandiflora were -1.78 ± 0.34 and -1.66 ± 0.41 MPa (P > 0.05). The estimation of TLP through leaf reflectance-based PV curves opens a broad range of possibilities for future research aimed at understanding and monitoring plant water relations on a large scale with spectral ecophysiology.

Petiole XLA (xylem to leaf area ratio) integrates hydraulic safety and efficiency across a diverse group of eucalypt leaves

A theoretical trade-off between the efficiency and safety of water transport systems in plants is used to explain diverse ecological patterns, from tree size to community structure. Despite its pervasive influence, this theory has marginal empirical support. This may be partially due to obfuscation of associations by wide phylogenetic sampling or non-standard sampling between studies. To address this, we examine the coordination of structural and anatomical traits linked to hydraulic safety and efficiency in the leaves of an ecologically diverse group of eucalypts. We introduce a new trait for characterising leaf water transport function measured as the cross-sectional XA at the petiole divided by the downstream leaf area (XLApetiole ). Variation in XLApetiole revealed support for a safety-efficiency trade-off in eucalypt leaves. XLApetiole was negatively correlated with theoretical petiole xylem conductivity (Ks_petiole ) and strongly negatively correlated with leaf cavitation vulnerability (Ψ50leaf ). Species with lower Ψ50leaf exhibited petiole xylem with narrower vessels and greater fibre wall area fractions. Our findings highlight XLApetiole as a novel integrative trait that provides insights into the evolution of leaf form and function in eucalypts and holds promise for wider use among diverse species.

Enhanced growth resistance but no decline in growth resilience under long-term extreme droughts

The frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme droughts, with devastating impacts on tree growth and survival, have increased with climate change over the past decades. Assessing growth resistance and resilience to drought is a crucial prerequisite for understanding the responses of forest functioning to drought events. However, the responses of growth resistance and resilience to extreme droughts with different durations across different climatic zones remain unclear. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal patterns in growth resistance and resilience in response to extreme droughts with different durations during 1901-2015, relying on tree-ring chronologies from 2389 forest stands over the mid- and high-latitudinal Northern Hemisphere, species-specific plant functional traits, and diverse climatic factors. The findings revealed that growth resistance and resilience under 1-year droughts were higher in humid regions than in arid regions. Significant higher growth resistance was observed under 2-year droughts than under 1-year droughts in both arid and humid regions, while growth resilience did not show a significant difference. Temporally, tree growth became less resistant and resilient to 1-year droughts in 1980-2015 than in 1901-1979 in both arid and humid regions. As drought duration lengthened, the predominant impacts of climatic factors on growth resistance and resilience weakened and instead foliar economic traits, plant hydraulic traits, and soil properties became much more important in both climatic regions; in addition, such trends were also observed temporally. Finally, we found that most of the Earth system models (ESMs) used in this study overestimated growth resistance and underestimated growth resilience under both 1-year and 2-year droughts. A comprehensive ecophysiological understanding of tree growth responses to longer and intensified drought events is urgently needed, and a specific emphasis should be placed on improving the performance of ESMs.

Drought sensitivity in mesic forests heightens their vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is shifting the structure and function of global forests, underscoring the critical need to predict which forests are most vulnerable to a hotter and drier future. We analyzed 6.6 million tree rings from 122 species to assess trees' sensitivity to water and energy availability. We found that trees growing in wetter portions of their range exhibit the greatest drought sensitivity. To test how these patterns of drought sensitivity influence vulnerability to climate change, we predicted tree growth through 2100. Our results suggest that drought adaptations in arid regions will partially buffer trees against climate change. By contrast, trees growing in the wetter, hotter portions of their climatic range may experience unexpectedly large adverse impacts under climate change.

Hydraulic variability of tropical forests is largely independent of water availability

Tropical rainforest woody plants have been thought to have uniformly low resistance to hydraulic failure and to function near the edge of their hydraulic safety margin (HSM), making these ecosystems vulnerable to drought; however, this may not be the case. Using data collected at 30 tropical forest sites for three key traits associated with drought tolerance, we show that site-level hydraulic diversity of leaf turgor loss point, resistance to embolism (P50 ), and HSMs is high across tropical forests and largely independent of water availability. Species with high HSMs (>1 MPa) and low P50 values (< -2 MPa) are common across the wet and dry tropics. This high site-level hydraulic diversity, largely decoupled from water stress, could influence which species are favoured and become dominant under a drying climate. High hydraulic diversity could also make these ecosystems more resilient to variable rainfall regimes.

Vapour pressure deficit modulates hydraulic function and structure of tropical rainforests under nonlimiting soil water supply

Atmospheric conditions are expected to become warmer and drier in the future, but little is known about how evaporative demand influences forest structure and function independently from soil moisture availability, and how fast-response variables (such as canopy water potential and stomatal conductance) may mediate longer-term changes in forest structure and function in response to climate change. We used two tropical rainforest sites with different temperatures and vapour pressure deficits (VPD), but nonlimiting soil water supply, to assess the impact of evaporative demand on ecophysiological function and forest structure. Common species between sites allowed us to test the extent to which species composition, relative abundance and intraspecific variability contributed to site-level differences. The highest VPD site had lower midday canopy water potentials, canopy conductance (gc ), annual transpiration, forest stature, and biomass, while the transpiration rate was less sensitive to changes in VPD; it also had different height-diameter allometry (accounting for 51% of the difference in biomass between sites) and higher plot-level wood density. Our findings suggest that increases in VPD, even in the absence of soil water limitation, influence fast-response variables, such as canopy water potentials and gc , potentially leading to longer-term changes in forest stature resulting in reductions in biomass.

Different Physiological Responses to Continuous Drought between Seedlings and Younger Individuals of Haloxylon ammodendron

Drought is an important environmental factor that influences physiological processes in plants; however, few studies have examined the physiological mechanisms underlying plants' responses to continuous drought. In this study, the seedlings and younger individuals of Haloxylon ammodendron were experimentally planted in the southern part of the Gurbantunggut Desert. We measured their photosynthetic traits, functional traits and non-structural carbohydrate contents (NSCs) in order to assess the effects of continuous drought (at 15-day and 30-day drought points) on the plants' physiological responses. The results showed that at the 15-day (15 d) drought point, the leaf light-saturated net photosynthetic rate (An) values of both the seedlings and the younger individuals were decreased (by -68.9% and -45.2%, respectively). The intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) of the seedlings was significantly lower than that of the control group (-52.2%), but there was no diffenrence of iWUE observed in younger individuals. At the 30-day (30 d) drought point, a decrease in the An (-129.8%) of the seedlings was induced via biochemical inhibition, with a lower potential maximum photochemical rate (Fv/Fm, 0.42) compared with the control group, while a decrease in the An (-52.3%) of the younger individuals was induced due to lower stomatal conductance (gs, -50.5%). Our results indicated that prolonged drought induced a greater risk of seedling mortality as the relatively limited ability of stomatal regulation may increase the possibility of massive embolism, resulting in hydraulic failure.

Increased hydraulic risk in assemblages of woody plant species predicts spatial patterns of drought-induced mortality

Predicting drought-induced mortality (DIM) of woody plants remains a key research challenge under climate change. Here, we integrate information on the edaphoclimatic niches, phylogeny and hydraulic traits of species to model the hydraulic risk of woody plants globally. We combine these models with species distribution records to estimate the hydraulic risk faced by local woody plant species assemblages. Thus, we produce global maps of hydraulic risk and test for its relationship with observed DIM. Our results show that local assemblages modelled as having higher hydraulic risk present a higher probability of DIM. Metrics characterizing this hydraulic risk improve DIM predictions globally, relative to models accounting only for edaphoclimatic predictors or broad functional groupings. The methodology we present here allows mapping of functional trait distributions and elucidation of global macro-evolutionary and biogeographical patterns, improving our ability to predict potential global change impacts on vegetation.

Cold temperature and aridity shape the evolution of drought tolerance traits in Tasmanian species of Eucalyptus

Perennial plant species from water-limiting environments (including climates of extreme drought, heat and freezing temperatures) have evolved traits that allow them to tolerate these conditions. As such, traits that are associated with water stress may show evidence of adaptation to climate when compared among closely related species inhabiting contrasting climatic conditions. In this study, we tested whether key hydraulic traits linked to drought stress, including the vulnerability of leaves to embolism (P50 leaf) and the minimum diffusive conductance of shoots (gmin), were associated with climatic characteristics of 14 Tasmanian eucalypt species from sites that vary in precipitation and temperature. Across species, greater cavitation resistance (more negative P50 leaf) was associated with increasing aridity and decreasing minimum temperature. By contrast, gmin showed strong associations with aridity only. Among these Tasmanian eucalypts, evidence suggests that trait variation is influenced by both cold and dry conditions, highlighting the need to consider both aspects when exploring adaptive trait-climate relationships.

Functional traits and water-transport strategies of woody species in an insular environment in a tropical forest

PREMISE

Plants survive in habitats with limited resource availability and contrasting environments by responding to variation in environmental factors through morphophysiological traits related to species performance in different ecosystems. However, how different plant strategies influence the megadiversity of tropical species has remained a knowledge gap.

METHODS

We analyzed variations in 27 morphophysiological traits of leaves and secondary xylem in Erythroxylum pulchrum and Tapirira guianensis, which have the highest absolute dominance in these physiognomies and occur together in areas of restinga and dense ombrophilous forest to infer water-transport strategies of Atlantic Forest woody plants.

RESULTS

The two species presented different sets of morphophysiological traits, strategies to avoid embolism and ensure water transport, in different phytophysiognomies. Tapirira guianensis showed possible adaptations influenced by phytophysiognomy, while E. pulchrum showed less variation in the set of characteristics between different phytophysiognomies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide essential tools to understand how the environment can modulate morphofunctional traits and how each species adjusts differently to adapt to different phytophysiognomies. In this sense, the results for these species reveal new species-specific responses in the tropical forest. Such knowledge is a prerequisite to predict future development of the most vulnerable forests as climate changes.

Seed Germination and Seedling Growth Influenced by Genetic Features and Drought Tolerance in a Critically Endangered Maple

Understanding the adaptation of plant species will help us develop effective breeding programs, guide the collection of germplasm, and improve the success of population restoration projects for threatened species. Genetic features correlate with species adaptation. Acer yangbiense is a critically endangered plant species with extremely small populations (PSESP). However, no information was available on its seed germination and seedling growth in populations with different genetic characteristics. In this study, we investigated seed germination and compared the performance of 566 seedlings in 10 maternal half-sib families cultivated in Kunming Botanical Garden. The results showed that A. yangbiense seeds required an average of 44 days to start germinating, with a 50% germination rate estimated to take about 47-76 days, indicating slow and irregular germination. There is a trade-off between the growth and survival in A. yangbiense seedlings, with fast growth coming at the cost of low survival. Groups that were able to recover from a recent bottleneck consistently had higher relative growth rates. High genetic diversity and low levels of inbreeding are likely to be responsible for their improved survival during drought conditions and rapid growth under optimal environmental conditions. Our results suggest that maternal genetic traits might be used as indicators for conservation and population restoration. These findings provide us with new information that could be applied to support ex situ conservation and reintroduction of threatened species.

Assessment of dynamic drought-induced ecosystem risk: Integrating time-varying hazard frequency, exposure and vulnerability

Terrestrial ecosystems, occupying 28.26% of Earth's surface, are extensively at risk from droughts, which is likely to propagate into human communities owing to loss of vital services. Ecosystem risk also tends to fluctuate within anthropogenically-forced nonstationary environments, raising considerable concerns about effectiveness of mitigation strategies. This study aims to assess dynamic ecosystem risk induced by droughts and identify risk hotspots. Bivariate nonstationary drought frequency was initially derived as a hazard component of risk. By coupling vegetation coverage and biomass quantity, a two-dimensional exposure indicator was developed. Trivariate likelihood of vegetation decline was calculated under arbitrary droughts to intuitively determine ecosystem vulnerability. Ultimately, time-variant drought frequency, exposure and vulnerability were multiplied to derive dynamic ecosystem risk, followed by hotspot and attribution analyses. Risk assessment implemented in the drought-prevalent Pearl River basin (PRB) of China during 1982-2017 showed that meteorological droughts in eastern and western margins, although less frequent, were prolonged and aggravated in contrast to prevalence of less persistent and severe droughts in the middle. In 86.12% of the PRB, ecosystem exposure maintains high levels (0.62). Relatively high vulnerability (>0.5) occurs in water-demanding agroecosystems, exhibiting a northwest-southeast-directed extension. A 0.1-degree risk atlas unveils that high and medium risks occupy 18.96% and 37.99% of the PRB, while risks are magnified in the north. The most pressing hotspots with high risk continuing to escalate reside in the East River and Hongliu River basins. Our results provide knowledge of composition, spatio-temporal variability and driving mechanism of drought-induced ecosystem risk, which will assist in risk-based mitigation prioritization.

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

Tropical forests face increasing climate risk1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, [Formula: see text]50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk3-5, little is known about how these vary across Earth's largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters [Formula: see text]50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both [Formula: see text]50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth-mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.

Aridity-dependent sequence of water potentials for stomatal closure and hydraulic dysfunctions in woody plants

The sequence of physiological events during drought strongly impacts plants' overall performance. Here, we synthesized the global data of stomatal and hydraulic traits in leaves and stems of 202 woody species to evaluate variations in the water potentials for key physiological events and their sequence along the climatic gradient. We found that the seasonal minimum water potential, turgor loss point, stomatal closure point, and leaf and stem xylem vulnerability to embolism were intercorrelated and decreased with aridity, indicating that water stress drives trait co-selection. In xeric regions, the seasonal minimum water potential occurred at lower water potential than turgor loss point, and the subsequent stomatal closure delayed embolism formation. In mesic regions, however, the seasonal minimum water potential did not pose a threat to the physiological functions, and stomatal closure occurred even at slightly more negative water potential than embolism. Our study demonstrates that the sequence of water potentials for physiological dysfunctions of woody plants varies with aridity, that is, xeric species adopt a more conservative sequence to prevent severe tissue damage through tighter stomatal regulation (isohydric strategy) and higher embolism resistance, while mesic species adopt a riskier sequence via looser stomatal regulation (anisohydric strategy) to maximize carbon uptake at the cost of hydraulic safety. Integrating both aridity-dependent sequence of water potentials for physiological dysfunctions and gap between these key traits into the hydraulic framework of process-based vegetation models would improve the prediction of woody plants' responses to drought under global climate change.

Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950

Over the last decades, the natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in disturbance regimes may compromise forest functioning and the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central to many European policies, we lack the long-term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding disturbance dynamics, modeling them, and developing adaptive management strategies. Here, we present a unique database of >170,000 records of ground-based natural disturbance observations in European forests from 1950 to 2019. Reported data confirm a significant increase in forest disturbance in 34 European countries, causing on an average of 43.8 million m³ of disturbed timber volume per year over the 70-year study period. This value is likely a conservative estimate due to under-reporting, especially of small-scale disturbances. We used machine learning techniques for assessing the magnitude of unreported disturbances, which are estimated to be between 8.6 and 18.3 million m³ /year. In the last 20 years, disturbances on average accounted for 16% of the mean annual harvest in Europe. Wind was the most important disturbance agent over the study period (46% of total damage), followed by fire (24%) and bark beetles (17%). Bark beetle disturbance doubled its share of the total damage in the last 20 years. Forest disturbances can profoundly impact ecosystem services (e.g., climate change mitigation), affect regional forest resource provisioning and consequently disrupt long-term management planning objectives and timber markets. We conclude that adaptation to changing disturbance regimes must be placed at the core of the European forest management and policy debate. Furthermore, a coherent and homogeneous monitoring system of natural disturbances is urgently needed in Europe, to better observe and respond to the ongoing changes in forest disturbance regimes.

Contributions of phenotypic integration, plasticity and genetic adaptation to adaptive capacity relating to drought in Banksia marginata (Proteaceae)

The frequency and intensity of drought events are predicted to increase because of climate change, threatening biodiversity and terrestrial ecosystems in many parts of the world. Drought has already led to declines in functionally important tree species, which are documented in dieback events, shifts in species distributions, local extinctions, and compromised ecosystem function. Understanding whether tree species possess the capacity to adapt to future drought conditions is a major conservation challenge. In this study, we assess the capacity of a functionally important plant species from south-eastern Australia (Banksia marginata, Proteaceae) to adapt to water-limited environments. A water-manipulated common garden experiment was used to test for phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation in seedlings sourced from seven provenances of contrasting climate-origins (wet and dry). We found evidence of local adaptation relating to plant growth investment strategies with populations from drier climate-origins showing greater growth in well-watered conditions. The results also revealed that environment drives variation in physiological (stomatal conductance, predawn and midday water potential) and structural traits (wood density, leaf dry matter content). Finally, these results indicate that traits are coordinated to optimize conservation of water under water-limited conditions and that trait coordination (phenotypic integration) does not constrain phenotypic plasticity. Overall, this study provides evidence for adaptive capacity relating to drought conditions in B. marginata, and a basis for predicting the response to climate change in this functionally important plant species.

Canopy dieback and recovery in Australian native forests following extreme drought

In 2019, south-eastern Australia experienced its driest and hottest year on record, resulting in massive canopy dieback events in eucalypt dominated forests. A subsequent period of high precipitation in 2020 provided a rare opportunity to quantify the impacts of extreme drought and consequent recovery. We quantified canopy health and hydraulic impairment (native percent loss of hydraulic conductivity, PLC) of 18 native tree species growing at 15 sites that were heavily impacted by the drought both during and 8-10 months after the drought. Most species exhibited high PLC during drought (PLC:65.1 ± 3.3%), with no clear patterns across sites or species. Heavily impaired trees (PLC > 70%) showed extensive canopy browning. In the post-drought period, most surviving trees exhibited hydraulic recovery (PLC:26.1 ± 5.1%), although PLC remained high in some trees (50-70%). Regained hydraulic function (PLC < 50%) corresponded to decreased canopy browning indicating improved tree health. Similar drought (37.1 ± 4.2%) and post-drought (35.1 ± 4.4%) percentages of basal area with dead canopy suggested that trees with severely compromised canopies immediately after drought were not able to recover. This dataset provides insights into the impacts of severe natural drought on the health of mature trees, where hydraulic failure is a major contributor in canopy dieback and tree mortality during extreme drought events.

Plastic adjustments in xylem vessel traits to drought events in three Cedrela species from Peruvian Tropical Andean forests

Cedrela species occur within the Tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) and rainforest in North America (Mexico), Central and South America. We assessed the hypothesis that functional xylem hydraulic architecture might be influenced by specific climatic variations. We investigated the effect of climate on tree-ring width and vessel traits (diameter, vessel density, vulnerability index and hydraulic diameter) of three relict-endemic and threatened Cedrela species (Cedrela fissilis, C. nebulosa and C. angustifolia) inhabiting Peruvian Tropical Andean cloud forests. All Cedrela species showed a significant reduction in radial growth and adjusted vessel trait linked with temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. Ring-width and vessel traits showed adaptation within Cedrela species, crucial to understanding a rough indication of the plant's ability to withstand drought-induced embolism or cavitation. Our results provide evidence for hydraulic mechanisms that determine specific wood anatomical functionality to climatic variation and drought responses. Therefore, changing the frequency or intensity of future drought events might exceed the adaptive limits of TMCF tree species, resulting in a substantial reduction of hydraulic functionality in Peruvian Cedrela species.

Leaf habit affects the distribution of drought sensitivity but not water transport efficiency in the tropics

Considering the global intensification of aridity in tropical biomes due to climate change, we need to understand what shapes the distribution of drought sensitivity in tropical plants. We conducted a pantropical data synthesis representing 1117 species to test whether xylem-specific hydraulic conductivity (K_S ), water potential at leaf turgor loss (Ψ_TLP ) and water potential at 50% loss of K_S (Ψ_P50 ) varied along climate gradients. The Ψ_TLP and Ψ_P50 increased with climatic moisture only for evergreen species, but K_S did not. Species with high Ψ_TLP and Ψ_P50 values were associated with both dry and wet environments. However, drought-deciduous species showed high Ψ_TLP and Ψ_P50 values regardless of water availability, whereas evergreen species only in wet environments. All three traits showed a weak phylogenetic signal and a short half-life. These results suggest strong environmental controls on trait variance, which in turn is modulated by leaf habit along climatic moisture gradients in the tropics.

Predicting resilience through the lens of competing adjustments to vegetation function

There is a pressing need to better understand ecosystem resilience to droughts and heatwaves. Eco-evolutionary optimization approaches have been proposed as means to build this understanding in land surface models and improve their predictive capability, but competing approaches are yet to be tested together. Here, we coupled approaches that optimize canopy gas exchange and leaf nitrogen investment, respectively, extending both approaches to account for hydraulic impairment. We assessed model predictions using observations from a native Eucalyptus woodland that experienced repeated droughts and heatwaves between 2013 and 2020, whilst exposed to an elevated [CO₂ ] treatment. Our combined approaches improved predictions of transpiration and enhanced the simulated magnitude of the CO₂ fertilization effect on gross primary productivity. The competing approaches also worked consistently along axes of change in soil moisture, leaf area, and [CO₂ ]. Despite predictions of a significant percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity due to embolism (PLC) in 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017 (99th percentile PLC > 45%), simulated hydraulic legacy effects were small and short-lived (2 months). Our analysis suggests that leaf shedding and/or suppressed foliage growth formed a strategy to mitigate drought risk. Accounting for foliage responses to water availability has the potential to improve model predictions of ecosystem resilience.

Towards species-level forecasts of drought-induced tree mortality risk

Predicting species-level responses to drought at the landscape scale is critical to reducing uncertainty in future terrestrial carbon and water cycle projections. We embedded a stomatal optimisation model in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model and parameterised the model for 15 canopy dominant eucalypt tree species across South-Eastern Australia (mean annual precipitation range: 344-1424 mm yr^-1 ). We conducted three experiments: applying CABLE to the 2017-2019 drought; a 20% drier drought; and a 20% drier drought with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂ ). The severity of the drought was highlighted as for at least 25% of their distribution ranges, 60% of species experienced leaf water potentials beyond the water potential at which 50% of hydraulic conductivity is lost due to embolism. We identified areas of severe hydraulic stress within-species' ranges, but we also pinpointed resilience in species found in predominantly semiarid areas. The importance of the role of CO₂ in ameliorating drought stress was consistent across species. Our results represent an important advance in our capacity to forecast the resilience of individual tree species, providing an evidence base for decision-making around the resilience of restoration plantings or net-zero emission strategies.

Bridge to the future: Important lessons from 20 years of ecosystem observations made by the OzFlux network

In 2020, the Australian and New Zealand flux research and monitoring network, OzFlux, celebrated its 20th anniversary by reflecting on the lessons learned through two decades of ecosystem studies on global change biology. OzFlux is a network not only for ecosystem researchers, but also for those 'next users' of the knowledge, information and data that such networks provide. Here, we focus on eight lessons across topics of climate change and variability, disturbance and resilience, drought and heat stress and synergies with remote sensing and modelling. In distilling the key lessons learned, we also identify where further research is needed to fill knowledge gaps and improve the utility and relevance of the outputs from OzFlux. Extreme climate variability across Australia and New Zealand (droughts and flooding rains) provides a natural laboratory for a global understanding of ecosystems in this time of accelerating climate change. As evidence of worsening global fire risk emerges, the natural ability of these ecosystems to recover from disturbances, such as fire and cyclones, provides lessons on adaptation and resilience to disturbance. Drought and heatwaves are common occurrences across large parts of the region and can tip an ecosystem's carbon budget from a net CO2 sink to a net CO2 source. Despite such responses to stress, ecosystems at OzFlux sites show their resilience to climate variability by rapidly pivoting back to a strong carbon sink upon the return of favourable conditions. Located in under-represented areas, OzFlux data have the potential for reducing uncertainties in global remote sensing products, and these data provide several opportunities to develop new theories and improve our ecosystem models. The accumulated impacts of these lessons over the last 20 years highlights the value of long-term flux observations for natural and managed systems. A future vision for OzFlux includes ongoing and newly developed synergies with ecophysiologists, ecologists, geologists, remote sensors and modellers.

Tropical tree mortality has increased with rising atmospheric water stress

Evidence exists that tree mortality is accelerating in some regions of the tropics^1,2, with profound consequences for the future of the tropical carbon sink and the global anthropogenic carbon budget left to limit peak global warming below 2 °C. However, the mechanisms that may be driving such mortality changes and whether particular species are especially vulnerable remain unclear^3-8. Here we analyse a 49-year record of tree dynamics from 24 old-growth forest plots encompassing a broad climatic gradient across the Australian moist tropics and find that annual tree mortality risk has, on average, doubled across all plots and species over the last 35 years, indicating a potential halving in life expectancy and carbon residence time. Associated losses in biomass were not offset by gains from growth and recruitment. Plots in less moist local climates presented higher average mortality risk, but local mean climate did not predict the pace of temporal increase in mortality risk. Species varied in the trajectories of their mortality risk, with the highest average risk found nearer to the upper end of the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit niches of species. A long-term increase in vapour pressure deficit was evident across the region, suggesting that thresholds involving atmospheric water stress, driven by global warming, may be a primary cause of increasing tree mortality in moist tropical forests.

Greater hydraulic safety contributes to higher growth resilience to drought across seven pine species in a semi-arid environment

Quantifying inter-specific variations of tree resilience to drought and revealing the underlying mechanisms are of great importance to the understanding of forest functionality, particularly in water-limited regions. So far, comprehensive studies incorporating investigations in inter-specific variations of long-term growth patterns of trees and the underlying physiological mechanisms are very limited. Here, in a semi-arid site of northern China, tree radial growth rate, inter-annual tree-ring growth responses to climate variability, as well as physiological characteristics pertinent to xylem hydraulics, carbon assimilation and drought tolerance were analyzed in seven pine species growing in a common environment. Considerable inter-specific variations in radial growth rate, growth response to drought and physiological characteristics were observed among the studied species. Differently, the studied species exhibited similar degrees of resistance to drought-induced branch xylem embolism, with water potential corresponding to 50% loss hydraulic conductivity ranging from -2.31 to -2.96 MPa. We found that higher branch hydraulic efficiency is related to greater leaf photosynthetic capacity, smaller hydraulic safety margin and lower woody density (P < 0.05, linear regressions), but not related to higher tree radial growth rate (P > 0.05). Rather, species with higher hydraulic conductivity and photosynthetic capacity were more sensitive to drought stress and tended to show weaker growth resistance to extreme drought events as quantified by tree-ring analyses, which is at least partially due to a trade-off between hydraulic efficiency and safety across species. This study thus demonstrates the importance of drought resilience rather than instantaneous water and carbon flux capacity in determining tree growth in water-limited environments.

Small and slow is safe: On the drought tolerance of tropical tree species

Understanding how evolutionary history and the coordination between trait trade-off axes shape the drought tolerance of trees is crucial to predict forest dynamics under climate change. Here, we compiled traits related to drought tolerance and the fast-slow and stature-recruitment trade-off axes in 601 tropical woody species to explore their covariations and phylogenetic signals. We found that xylem resistance to embolism (P50) determines the risk of hydraulic failure, while the functional significance of leaf turgor loss point (TLP) relies on its coordination with water use strategies. P50 and TLP exhibit weak phylogenetic signals and substantial variation within genera. TLP is closely associated with the fast-slow trait axis: slow species maintain leaf functioning under higher water stress. P50 is associated with both the fast-slow and stature-recruitment trait axes: slow and small species exhibit more resistant xylem. Lower leaf phosphorus concentration is associated with more resistant xylem, which suggests a (nutrient and drought) stress-tolerance syndrome in the tropics. Overall, our results imply that (1) drought tolerance is under strong selective pressure in tropical forests, and TLP and P50 result from the repeated evolutionary adaptation of closely related taxa, and (2) drought tolerance is coordinated with the ecological strategies governing tropical forest demography. These findings provide a physiological basis to interpret the drought-induced shift toward slow-growing, smaller, denser-wooded trees observed in the tropics, with implications for forest restoration programmes.

Tapping into the physiological responses to mistletoe infection during heat and drought stress

Mistletoes are important co-contributors to tree mortality globally, particularly during droughts. In Australia, mistletoe distributions are expanding in temperate woodlands, while their hosts have experienced unprecedented heat and drought stress in recent years. We investigated whether the excessive water use of mistletoes increased the probability of xylem emboli in a mature woodland during the recent record drought that was compounded by multiple heatwaves. We continuously recorded transpiration ($T_{SLA}$) of infected and uninfected branches from two eucalypt species over two summers, monitored stem and leaf water potentials ($\Psi $) and used hydraulic vulnerability curves to estimate percent loss in conductivity (PLC) for each species. Variations in weather (vapor pressure deficit, photosynthetically active radiation, soil water content), host species and % mistletoe foliage explained 78% of hourly $T_{SLA}$. While mistletoe acted as an uncontrollable sink for water in the host even during typical summer days, daily $T_{SLA}$ increased up to 4-fold in infected branches on hot days, highlighting the previously overlooked importance of temperature stress in amplifying water loss in mistletoes. The increased water use of mistletoes resulted in significantly decreased host $\Psi _{\rm{leaf}}$ and $\Psi _{\rm{trunk}}$. It further translated to an estimated increase of up to 11% PLC for infected hosts, confirming greater hydraulic dysfunction of infected trees that place them at higher risk of hydraulic failure. However, uninfected branches of Eucalyptus fibrosa F.Muell. had much tighter controls on water loss than uninfected branches of Eucalyptus moluccana Roxb., which shifted the risk of hydraulic failure towards an increased risk of carbon starvation for E. fibrosa. The contrasting mechanistic responses to heat and drought stress between both co-occurring species demonstrates the complexity of host-parasite interactions and highlights the challenge in predicting species-specific responses to biotic agents in a warmer and drier climate.

Eucalyptus obliqua tall forest in cool, temperate Tasmania becomes a carbon source during a protracted warm spell in November 2017

Tasmania experienced a protracted warm spell in November 2017. Temperatures were lower than those usually characterising heatwaves. Nonetheless the warm spell represented an extreme anomaly based on the historical local climate. Eddy covariance measurements of fluxes in a Eucalyptus obliqua tall forest at Warra, southern Tasmania during the warm spell were compared with measurements in the same period of the previous year when temperatures were closer to average. Compared with previous year, the warm spell resulted in 31% lower gross primary productivity (GPP), 58% higher ecosystem respiration (ER) and the forest switching from a carbon sink to a source. Significantly higher net radiation received during the warm spell was dissipated by increased latent heat flux, while canopy conductance was comparable with the previous year. Stomatal regulation to limit water loss was therefore unlikely as the reason for the lower GPP during the warm spell. Temperatures during the warm spell were supra-optimal for GPP for 75% of the daylight hours. The decline in GPP at Warra during the warm spell was therefore most likely due to temperatures exceeding the optimum for GPP. All else being equal, these forests will be weaker carbon sinks if, as predicted, warming events become more common.

Tropical tree growth sensitivity to climate is driven by species intrinsic growth rate and leaf traits

A better understanding of how climate affects growth in tree species is essential for improved predictions of forest dynamics under climate change. Long-term climate averages (mean climate) drive spatial variations in species' baseline growth rates, whereas deviations from these averages over time (anomalies) can create growth variation around the local baseline. However, the rarity of long-term tree census data spanning climatic gradients has so far limited our understanding of their respective role, especially in tropical systems. Furthermore, tree growth sensitivity to climate is likely to vary widely among species, and the ecological strategies underlying these differences remain poorly understood. Here, we utilize an exceptional dataset of 49 years of growth data for 509 tree species across 23 tropical rainforest plots along a climatic gradient to examine how multiannual tree growth responds to both climate means and anomalies, and how species' functional traits mediate these growth responses to climate. We show that anomalous increases in atmospheric evaporative demand and solar radiation consistently reduced tree growth. Drier forests and fast-growing species were more sensitive to water stress anomalies. In addition, species traits related to water use and photosynthesis partly explained differences in growth sensitivity to both climate means and anomalies. Our study demonstrates that both climate means and anomalies shape tree growth in tropical forests and that species traits can provide insights into understanding these demographic responses to climate change, offering a promising way forward to forecast tropical forest dynamics under different climate trajectories.

Stability of tropical forest tree carbon-water relations in a rainfall exclusion treatment through shifts in effective water uptake depth

Increasing severity and frequency of drought is predicted for large portions of the terrestrial biosphere, with major impacts already documented in wet tropical forests. Using a 4-year rainfall exclusion experiment in the Daintree Rainforest in northeast Australia, we examined canopy tree responses to reduced precipitation and soil water availability by quantifying seasonal changes in plant hydraulic and carbon traits for 11 tree species between control and drought treatments. Even with reduced soil volumetric water content in the upper 1 m of soil in the drought treatment, we found no significant difference between treatments for predawn and midday leaf water potential, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, foliar stable carbon isotope composition, leaf mass per area, turgor loss point, xylem vessel anatomy, or leaf and stem nonstructural carbohydrates. While empirical measurements of aboveground traits revealed homeostatic maintenance of plant water status and traits in response to reduced soil moisture, modeled belowground dynamics revealed that trees in the drought treatment shifted the depth from which water was acquired to deeper soil layers. These findings reveal that belowground acclimation of tree water uptake depth may buffer tropical rainforests from more severe droughts that may arise in future with climate change.

Verification of our empirical understanding of the physiology and ecology of two contrasting plantation species using a trait database

The effects of climate change on forest ecosystems take on increasing importance more than ever. Information on plant traits is a powerful predictor of ecosystem dynamics and functioning. We reviewed the major ecological traits, such as foliar gas exchange and nutrients, xylem morphology and drought tolerance, of Cryptomeria japonica and Chamaecyparis obtusa, which are major timber species in East Asia, especially in Japan, by using a recently developed functional trait database for both species (SugiHinokiDB). Empirically, C. obtusa has been planted under drier conditions, whereas C. japonica, which grows faster but thought to be less drought tolerant, has been planted under wetter conditions. Our analysis generally support the empirical knowledge: The maximum photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, foliar nutrient content and soil-to-foliage hydraulic conductance were higher in C. japonica than in C. obtusa. In contrast, the foliar turgor loss point and xylem pressure corresponding to 50% conductivity, which indicate drought tolerance, were lower in C. obtusa and are consistent with the drier habitat of C. obtusa. Ontogenetic shifts were also observed; as the age and height of the trees increased, foliar nutrient concentrations, foliar minimum midday water potential and specific leaf area decreased in C. japonica, suggesting that nutrient and water limitation occurs with the growth. In C. obtusa, the ontogenetic shits of these foliar traits were less pronounced. Among the Cupressaceae worldwide, the drought tolerance of C. obtusa, as well as C. japonica, was not as high. This may be related to the fact that the Japanese archipelago has historically not been subjected to strong dryness. The maximum photosynthetic rate showed intermediate values within the family, indicating that C. japonica and C. obtusa exhibit relatively high growth rates in the Cupressaceae family, and this is thought to be the reason why they have been selected as economically suitable timber species in Japanese forestry. This study clearly demonstrated that the plant trait database provides us a promising opportunity to verify out empirical knowledge of plantation management and helps us to understand effect of climate change on plantation forests by using trait-based modelling.