Siberian plants shift their phenology in response to climate change

Fluvial carbon dioxide emissions peak at the permafrost thawing front in the Western Siberia Lowland

In order to foresee the impact of permafrost thaw on CO2 emissions by high-latitude rivers, in-situ measurements across a permafrost and climate/vegetation gradient, coupled with assessment of possible physico-chemical and landscape controlling factors are necessary. Here we chose 34 catchments of variable stream order (1 to 9) and watershed size (1 to >105 km2) located across a permafrost and biome gradient in the Western Siberian Lowland (WSL), from the permafrost-free southern taiga to the continuous permafrost zone of tundra. Across the south-north transect, maximal CO2 emissions (2.2 ± 1.1 g C-CO2 m-2 d-1) occurred from rivers of the discontinuous/sporadic permafrost zone, i.e., geographical permafrost thawing boundary. In this transitional zone, fluvial C emission to downstream export ratio was as high as 8.0, which greatly (x 10) exceeded the ratio in the permafrost free and continuous permafrost zones. Such a high evasion at the permafrost thawing front can stem from an optimal combination of multiple environmental factors: maximal active layer thickness, sizable C stock in soils, and mobilization of labile organic nutrients from dispersed peat ice that enhanced DOC and POC processing in the water column, likely due to priming effect. Via a substituting space for time approach, we foresee an increase in CO2 and CH4 fluvial evasion in the continuous and discontinuous permafrost zone, which is notably linked to the greening of tundra increases in biomass of the riparian vegetation, river water warming and thermokarst lake formation on the watershed.

Biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change: Facing challenges and management strategies

Biodiversity conservation amidst the uncertainty of climate change presents unique challenges that necessitate precise management strategies. The study reported here was aimed at refining understanding of these challenges and to propose specific, actionable management strategies. Employing a quantitative literature analysis, we meticulously examined 1268 research articles from the Web of Science database between 2005 and 2023. Through Cite Spaces and VOS viewer software, we conducted a bibliometric analysis and thematic synthesis to pinpoint emerging trends, key themes, and the geographical distribution of research efforts. Our methodology involved identifying patterns within the data, such as frequency of keywords, co-authorship networks, and citation analysis, to discern the primary focus areas within the field. This approach allowed us to distinguish between research concentration areas, specifically highlighting a predominant interest in Environmental Sciences Ecology (67.59 %) and Biodiversity Conservation (22.63 %). The identification of adaptive management practices and ecosystem services maintenance are central themes in the research from 2005 to 2023. Moreover, challenges such as understanding phenological shifts, invasive species dynamics, and anthropogenic pressures critically impact biodiversity conservation efforts. Our findings underscore the urgent need for precise, data-driven decision-making processes in the face of these challenges. Addressing the gaps identified, our study proposes targeted solutions, including the establishment of germplasm banks for at-risk species, the development of advanced genomic and microclimate models, and scenario analysis to predict and mitigate future conservation challenges. These strategies are aimed at enhancing the resilience of biodiversity against the backdrop of climate change through integrated, evidence-based approaches. By leveraging the compiled and analyzed data, this study offers a foundational framework for future research and practical action in biodiversity conservation strategies, demonstrating a path forward through detailed analysis and specified solutions.

Predicting plant-pollinator interactions: concepts, methods, and challenges

Plant-pollinator interactions are ecologically and economically important, and, as a result, their prediction is a crucial theoretical and applied goal for ecologists. Although various analytical methods are available, we still have a limited ability to predict plant-pollinator interactions. The predictive ability of different plant-pollinator interaction models depends on the specific definitions used to conceptualize and quantify species attributes (e.g., morphological traits), sampling effects (e.g., detection probabilities), and data resolution and availability. Progress in the study of plant-pollinator interactions requires conceptual and methodological advances concerning the mechanisms and species attributes governing interactions as well as improved modeling approaches to predict interactions. Current methods to predict plant-pollinator interactions present ample opportunities for improvement and spark new horizons for basic and applied research.

Pollination Syndrome, Florivory, and Breeding System of Satyrium nepalense var. ciliatum (Orchidaceae) in Central Yunnan, China

Research on Satyrium nepalense var. ciliatum (Lindl.) Hook. f. has primarily focused on populations in Northwestern Yunnan, with limited studies on pollination syndromes and insect behavior. In addition, it is geographically limited in its breeding system studies. Here, pollination syndromes, florivory, and breeding systems of S. nepalense var. ciliatum from Liangwang Mountain (Central Yunnan, China) were investigated through field work, microscope, scanning electron microscope (SEM), and parafin section. It was revealed that the pollination syndrome was possessing out-crossing, such as bright color, a developed rostellum, nectar glands in the spur, and food hairs at the lip base. The color and nectar attracted flower visitors, and florivory was observed. Some flower visitors pollinated their companion species. Ants were identified as floral visitors for the first time in Satyrium, although substantial pollination was not observed. Ants might be potential pollinators. S. nepalense var. ciliatum possessed a mixed breeding system, including selfing, out-crossing, and apomixis, with apomixis being predominant in nature. It is suggested that the pollination syndrome, florivory, and pollination competition would contribute to its mixed breeding systems, particularly leading to the occurrence of apomixis.

Phylogenetic conservation in plant phenological traits varies between temperate and subtropical climates in China

Phenological traits, such as leaf and flowering dates, are proven to be phylogenetically conserved. The relationship between phylogenetic conservation, plant phenology, and climatic factors remains unknown. Here, we assessed phenological features among flowering plants as evidence for phylogenetic conservatism, the tendency for closely related species to share similar ecological and biological attributes. We use spring phenological traits data from 1968-2018 of 65 trees and 49 shrubs in Xi'an (temperate climate) and Guiyang (subtropical climate) to understand plant phenological traits' relationship with phylogeny. Molecular datasets are employed in evolutionary models to test the phylogenetic conservatism in spring phenological characteristics in response to climate-sensitive phenological features. Significant phylogenetic conservation was found in the Xi'an plant's phenological traits, while there was a non-significant conservation in the Guiyang plant species. Phylogenetic generalized least squares (PGLS) models correlate with phenological features significantly in Xi'an while non-significantly in Guiyang. Based on the findings of molecular dating, it was suggested that the Guiyang species split off from their relatives around 46.0 mya during the middle Eocene of the Tertiary Cenozoic Era, while Xi'an species showed a long evolutionary history and diverged from their relatives around 95 mya during the late Cretaceous Mesozoic Era. First leaf dates (FLD) indicative of spring phenology, show that Xi'an adjourned the case later than Guiyang. Unlike FLD, first flower dates (FFD) yield different results as Guiyang flowers appear later than Xi'an's. Our research revealed that various factors, including phylogeny, growth form, and functional features, influenced the diversity of flowering phenology within species in conjunction with local climate circumstances. These results are conducive to understanding evolutionary conservation mechanisms in plant phenology concerning evolutionary processes in different geographical and climate zones.

The reduced growth due to elevated CO2 concentration hinders the sexual reproduction of mature Northern pipevine (Aristolochia contorta Bunge)

The phenology has gained considerably more attention in recent times of climate change. The transition from vegetative to reproductive phases is a critical process in the life history of plants, closely tied to phenology. In an era of climate change, understanding how environmental factors affect this transition is of paramount importance. This study consisted of field surveys and a greenhouse experiment on the reproductive biology of Northern pipevine (Aristolochia contorta Bunge). During field surveys, we investigated the environmental factors and growth characteristics of mature A. contorta, with a focus on both its vegetative and reproductive phases. In its successful flowering during the reproductive phase, A. contorta grew under the conditions of 40% relative light intensity and 24% soil moisture content, and had a vertical rhizome. In the greenhouse experiments, we examined the impact of increased CO2 concentration on the growth and development of 10-year-old A. contorta, considering the effect of rhizome direction. Planted with a vertical rhizome direction, A. contorta exhibited sufficient growth for flowering under ambient CO2 concentrations. In contrast, when planted with a horizontal rhizome direction, it was noted to significantly impede successful growth and flowering under elevated CO2 concentrations. This hindered the process of flowering, highlighting the pivotal role of substantial vegetative growth in achieving successful flowering. Furthermore, we observed a higher number of underground buds and shoots under the conditions of elevated CO2 concentration and a horizontal rhizome direction instead of flowering. Elevated CO2 concentrations also exhibited diverse effects on mature A. contorta's flower traits, resulting in smaller flower size, shorter longevity, and reduced stigma receptivity, and pollen viability. The study shed light on elevated CO2 concentrations can hinder growth, potentially obstructing sexual reproduction and diminishing genetic diversity.

Tracking Phenological Changes over 183 Years in Endemic Species of a Mediterranean Mountain (Sierra Nevada, SE Spain) Using Herbarium Specimens

Phenological studies have a crucial role in the global change context. The Mediterranean basin constitutes a key study site since strong climate change impacts are expected, particularly in mountain areas such as Sierra Nevada, where we focus. Specifically, we delve into phenological changes in endemic vascular plants over time by analysing data at three scales: entire massif, altitudinal ranges, and particular species, seeking to contribute to stopping biodiversity loss. For this, we analysed 5262 samples of 2129 herbarium sheets from Sierra Nevada, dated from 1837 to 2019, including reproductive structure, complete collection date, and precise location. We found a generalized advancement in phenology at all scales, and particularly in flowering onset and flowering peak. Thus, plants flower on average 11 days earlier now than before the 1970s. Although similar trends have been confirmed for many territories and species, we address plants that have been studied little in the past regarding biotypes and distribution, and which are relevant for conservation. Thus, we analysed phenological changes in endemic plants, mostly threatened, from a crucial hotspot within the Mediterranean hotspot, which is particularly vulnerable to global warming. Our results highlight the urgency of phenological studies by species and of including ecological interactions and effects on their life cycles.

Satellite monitoring reveals short-term cumulative and time-lag effect of drought and heat on autumn photosynthetic phenology in subtropical vegetation

Comparing with the effect of the average climate change on vegetation phenology, the impacts of extreme climate events remain unclear, especially considering their characteristic cumulative and time-lag effects. Using solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) satellite records, we investigated the cumulative and time-lag effects of drought and heat events on photosynthesis, particularly for the end date of autumn photosynthesis (EOP), in subtropical vegetation in China. Our results showed a negative effect of drought on the delay of EOP, with the cumulative effect on 30.12% (maximum continuous dry days, CDD), 34.82% (dry days, DRD), and 26.14% (dry period, DSDI) of the study area and the general time-lag effect on 50.73% (maximum continuous dry days), 56.61% (dry days), and 47.55% (dry period) of the study area. The cumulative and lagged time were 1-3 months and 2-3 months, respectively. In contrast, the cumulative effect of heat on EOP was observed in 16.27% (warm nights, TN90P), 23.66% (moderate heat days, TX50P), and 19.19% (heavy heat days, TX90P) of the study area, with cumulative time of 1-3 months. The lagged time was 3-4 months, detected in 31.02% (warm nights), 45.86% (moderate heat days), and 36.52% (heavy heat days) of the study area. At the vegetation community level, drought and heat had relatively rapid impacts on EOP in the deciduous broadleaved forest, whereas evergreen forests and bushes responded to heat slowly and took a longer time. Our results revealed that drought and heat have short-term cumulative and time-lag effects on the EOP of subtropical vegetation in China, with varying effects among different vegetation types. These findings provide new insights into the effect of drought and heat on subtropical vegetation and confirm the need to consider these effects in the development of prediction models of autumn phenology for subtropical vegetation.

Climatic drivers and ecological implications of variation in the time interval between leaf-out and flowering

Leaf-out and flowering in any given species have evolved to occur in a predetermined sequence, with the inter-stage time interval optimized to maximize plant fitness. Although warming-induced advances of both leaf-out and flowering are well documented, it remains unclear whether shifts in these phenological phases differ in magnitudes and whether changes have occurred in the length of the inter-stage intervals. Here, we present an extensive synthesis of warming effects on flower-leaf time intervals, using long-term (1963-2014) and in situ data consisting of 11,858 leaf-out and flowering records for 183 species across China. We found that the timing of both spring phenological events was generally advanced, indicating a dominant impact of forcing conditions compared with chilling. Stable time intervals between leaf-out and flowering prevailed for most of the time series despite increasing temperatures; however, some of the investigated cases featured significant changes in the time intervals. The latter could be explained by differences in the temperature sensitivity (ST) between leaf and flower phenology. Greater ST for flowering than for leaf-out caused flowering times to advance faster than leaf emergence. This shortened the inter-stage intervals in leaf-first species and lengthened them in flower-first species. Variation in the time intervals between leaf-out and flowering events may have far-reaching ecological and evolutionary consequences, with implications for species fitness, intra/inter-species interactions, and ecosystem structure, function, and stability.

Climate drivers of seed rain phenology of subtropical forest communities along an elevational gradient

Seed rain phenology (the start and end date of seed rain) is an essential component of plant phenology, critical for understanding population regeneration and community dynamics. However, intra- and inter-annual changes of seed rain phenology along environmental gradients have rarely been studied and the responses of seed rain phenology to climate variations are unclear. We monitored seed rain phenology of four forest communities in four years at different elevations (900 m, 1450 m, 1650 m, 1900 m a.s.l.) of a subtropical mountain in Central China. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of seed rain phenology of 29 common woody plant species (total observed species in the seed rain), and related the phenological variations to seed number and climatic variables using mixed-effect models with the correlation matrix of phylogeny. We found that changes in the period length were mainly driven by the end rather than the start date. The end date and the period length of seed rain were significantly different between the mast and non-mast seeding years, while no significant elevation-related trend was detected in seed rain phenology variation. Seed number, mean temperature in spring (T_spr), and winter (T_win), summer precipitation (P_sum) had significant effects on seed rain phenology. When T_spr increased, the start date of seed rain advanced, while the end date was delayed and the seed rain period length was mainly prolonged by a higher seed number, T_win and P_sum. Forest canopy might have a buffering effect on understory climatic conditions, especially in precipitation that lead to difference in seed rain phenology between canopy and shrub species. Our novel evidence of seed rain phenology can improve prediction of community regeneration dynamics in responding to climate changes.

Advances in spring leaf phenology are mainly triggered by elevated temperature along the rural-urban gradient in Beijing, China

Urbanization-induced phenological changes have received considerable attention owing to their implications for determining urban ecosystem productivity and predicting the response of plants and ecosystem carbon cycles to future climate change. However, inconsistent rural-urban gradients in plant phenology remain, and phenological drivers other than temperature are poorly understood. In this study, we simultaneously observed the micro-climate and spring leaf phenology of seven woody plant species at 13 parks along a rural-urban gradient in Beijing, China. The minimum (T_min) and mean (T_mean) air temperature and the minimum (VPD_min) and mean (VPD_mean) vapor pressure deficit increased significantly along the rural-urban gradient, but the maximum air temperature (T_max) and maximum vapor pressure deficit (VPD_max) did not. All observed leaf phenological phases for the seven species were significantly advanced along the rural-urban gradient by 0.20 to 1.02 days/km. Advances in the occurrence of leaf phenological events were significantly correlated with increases in T_mean (accounting for 57-59% variation), T_min (21-26%), VPD_min (12-16%), and VPD_mean (3-5%), but not with changes in T_max or VPD_max. Advances in spring leaf phenology along the rural-urban gradient differed between non-native species and native species and between shrubs and trees. The reason may be mainly that the sensitivities of spring leaf phenology to micro-climate differ with species origin and growth form. This study highlights that urbanization-induced increases in T_mean and T_min are the major contributors to advances in spring leaf phenology along the rural-urban gradient, exerting less influence on native species than on non-native species.

Environmental controllers for carbon emission and concentration patterns in Siberian rivers during different seasons

Despite the importance of small and medium size rivers of Siberian boreal zone in greenhouse gases (GHG) emission, major knowledge gaps exist regarding its temporal variability and controlling mechanisms. Here we sampled 11 pristine rivers of the southern taiga biome (western Siberia Lowland, WSL), ranging in watershed area from 0.8 to 119,000 km², to reveal temporal pattern and examine main environmental controllers of GHG emissions from the river water surfaces. Floating chamber measurements demonstrated that CO₂ emissions from water surface decreased by 2 to 4-folds from spring to summer and autumn, were independent of the size of the watershed and stream order and did not exhibit sizable (>30 %, regardless of season) variations between day and night. The CH₄ concentrations and fluxes increased in the order "spring ≤ summer < autumn" and ranged from 1 to 15 μmol L^-1 and 5 to 100 mmol m^-2 d^-1, respectively. The CO₂ concentrations and fluxes (range from 100 to 400 μmol L^-1 and 1 to 4 g C m^-2 d^-1, respectively) were positively correlated with dissolved and particulate organic carbon, total nitrogen and bacterial number of the water column. The CH₄ concentrations and fluxes were positively correlated with phosphate and ammonia concentrations. Of the landscape parameters, positive correlations were detected between riparian vegetation biomass and CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations. Over the six-month open-water period, areal emissions of C (>99.5 % CO₂; <0.5 % CH₄) from the watersheds of 11 rivers were equal to the total downstream C export in this part of the WSL. Based on correlations between environmental controllers (watershed land cover and the water column parameters), we hypothesize that the fluxes are largely driven by riverine mineralization of terrestrial dissolved and particulate OC, coupled with respiration at the river bottom and riparian sediments. It follows that, under climate warming scenario, most significant changes in GHG regimes of western Siberian rivers located in permafrost-free zone may occur due to changes in the riparian zone vegetation and water coverage of the floodplains.

Autumn phenology of tree species in China is associated more with climate than with spring phenology and phylogeny

Both biotic and abiotic factors restrict changes in autumn phenology, yet their effects remain ambiguous, which hinders the accurate prediction of phenology under future climate change. In this study, based on the phenological records of 135 tree species at ten sites in China during 1979-2018, we first investigated the effects of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, insolation and wind speed) and spring phenology on interannual changes in leaf coloring date (LCD) with the partial correlation analysis, and assessed the relative importance of phylogeny and native climate to LCD differences among species by using multivariate regression and phylogenetic eigenvector regression approach. The results showed that the effects of climate factors on interannual changes in LCD were more significant than spring phenology. In general, temperature played a more important role in cold regions (e.g. the northeast region), while the control of insolation on LCD was stronger in the warmer and wetter regions (e.g. the north, east and southwest regions). In addition, the effects of precipitation and wind speed were more evident in arid regions (e.g. the northwest region). We also found considerable effects of both native climate and phylogeny on the LCD differences among species, despite the contribution of native climate being almost 2~5 times greater than that of the phylogeny. Our findings confirmed and quantified the combined effects of climate, spring phenology and phylogeny on the autumn phenology of plants, which could help better understand the driving factors and influencing mechanism of plant phenology and provide a reference for the calibration and optimization of phenological models.

Vessels in a Rhododendron ferrugineum (L.) population do not trace temperature anymore at the alpine shrubline

INTRODUCTION

Mean xylem vessel or tracheid area have been demonstrated to represent powerful proxies to better understand the response of woody plants to changing climatic conditions. Yet, to date, this approach has rarely been applied to shrubs.

METHODS

Here, we developed a multidecadal, annually-resolved chronology of vessel sizes for Rhododendron ferrugineum shrubs sampled at the upper shrubline (2,550 m asl) on a north-facing, inactive rock glacier in the Italian Alps.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Over the 1960-1989 period, the vessel size chronology shares 64% of common variability with summer temperatures, thus confirming the potential of wood anatomical analyses on shrubs to track past climate variability in alpine environments above treeline. The strong winter precipitation signal recorded in the chronology also confirms the negative effect of long-lasting snow cover on shrub growth. By contrast, the loss of a climate-growth relation signal since the 1990s for both temperature and precipitation, significantly stronger than the one found in radial growth, contrasts with findings in other QWA studies according to which stable correlations between series of anatomical features and climatic parameters have been reported. In a context of global warming, we hypothesize that this signal loss might be induced by winter droughts, late frost, or complex relations between increasing air temperatures, permafrost degradation, and its impacts on shrub growth. We recommend future studies to validate these hypotheses on monitored rock glaciers.

Enhanced trends in spectral greening and climate anomalies across Europe

Europe witnessed a strong increase in climate variability and enhanced climate-induced extreme events, such as hot drought periods, mega heat waves, and persistent flooding and flash floods. Intensified land degradation, land use, and landcover changes further amplified the pressure on the environmental system functionalities and fuelled climate change feedbacks. On the other hand, global satellite observations detected a positive spectral greening trend-most likely as a response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and global warming. But which are the engines behind such shifts in surface reflectance patterns, vegetation response to global climate changes, or anomalies in the environmental control mechanisms? This article compares long-term environmental variables (1948-2021) to recent vegetation index data (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), 2001-2021) and presents regional trends in climate variability and vegetation response across Europe. Results show that positive trends in vegetation response, temperature, rainfall, and soil moisture are accompanied by a strong increase in climate anomalies over large parts of Europe. Vegetation dynamics are strongly coupled to increased temperature and enhanced soil moisture during winter and the early growing season in the northern latitudes. Simultaneously, temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture anomalies are strongly increasing. Such a strong amplification in climate variability across Europe further enhances the vulnerability of vegetation cover during extreme events.

Analysis of the Potential Range of Anticlea sibirica L. (Kunth) and Its Changes under Moderate Climate Change in the 21st Century

The study shows the analysis of the current potential range and the modeling of its changes in the hemiboreal species Anticlea sibirica. The models show the habitat suitability for A. sibirica under moderate climatic changes (RCP4.5) in the middle and second half of the 21st century. For modeling, we used MaxEnt software with the predictors being climate variables from CHELSA Bioclim and a digital elevation model. The modeling has shown that climate change can be favorable for the spread of A. sibirica to the northeastern part of its range by expanding highly suitable habitats in mountainous landscapes along the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk. In the rest of the range, the total area of suitable habitats will decrease. In areas with extremely deteriorating growing conditions, the species will persist in low-competition habitats such as rocky outcrops, riverbanks, and screes. The predicted change in the distribution of A. sibirica indicates a possible strong transformation of the vegetation cover in Siberia and the Urals, even under moderate climate change.

Climate warming shifts the time interval between flowering and leaf unfolding depending on the warming period

The timing of flowering (FL) and leaf unfolding (LU) determine plants' reproduction and vegetative growth. Global warming has substantially advanced FL and LU of temperate and boreal plants, but their responses to warming differ, which may influence the time interval between FL and LU (∆LU-FL), thereby impacting plant fitness and intraspecific physiological processes. Based on twigs collected from two flowering-first tree species, Populus tomentosa and Amygdalus triloba, we conducted a manipulative experiment to investigate the effects of winter chilling, spring warming and photoperiod on the ∆LU-FL. We found that photoperiod did not affect the ∆LU-FL of Amygdalus triloba, but shortened ∆LU-FL by 5.1 d of Populus tomentosa. Interestingly, spring warming and winter chilling oppositely affected the ∆LU-FL of both species. Specifically, low chilling accumulation extended the ∆LU-FL by 3.8 and 9.4 d for Populus tomentosa and Amygdalus triloba, but spring warming shortened the ∆LU-FL by 4.1 and 0.2 d °C^-1. Our results indicate that climate warming will decrease or increase the ∆LU-FL depending on the warming periods, i.e., spring or winter. The shifted time interval between flowering and leaf unfolding may have ecological effects including affecting pollen transfer efficiency and alter the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystem.

Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget

Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994-2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm^-2) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.

Functional traits influence patterns in vegetative and reproductive plant phenology - a multi-botanical garden study

Phenology has emerged as key indicator of the biological impacts of climate change, yet the role of functional traits constraining variation in herbaceous species' phenology has received little attention. Botanical gardens are ideal places in which to investigate large numbers of species growing under common climate conditions. We ask whether interspecific variation in plant phenology is influenced by differences in functional traits. We recorded onset, end, duration and intensity of initial growth, leafing out, leaf senescence, flowering and fruiting for 212 species across five botanical gardens in Germany. We measured functional traits, including plant height, absolute and specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf carbon and nitrogen content and seed mass and accounted for species' relatedness. Closely related species showed greater similarities in timing of phenological events than expected by chance, but species' traits had a high degree of explanatory power, pointing to paramount importance of species' life-history strategies. Taller plants showed later timing of initial growth, and flowered, fruited and underwent leaf senescence later. Large-leaved species had shorter flowering and fruiting durations. Taller, large-leaved species differ in their phenology and are more competitive than smaller, small-leaved species. We assume climate warming will change plant communities' competitive hierarchies with consequences for biodiversity.

Climate warming-driven phenological shifts are species-specific in woody plants: evidence from twig experiment in Kashmir Himalaya

Experimental evidences in support of climate warming-driven phenological shifts are still scarce, particularly from the developing world. Here, we investigated the effect of experimental warming on flowering phenology of selected woody plants in Kashmir Himalaya. We selected the twigs of four congeneric pairs of temperate woody species (Prunus, Populus, Ulmus, Viburnum)-typical spring-flowering plants in the region. Using randomised block design, we monitored these winter dormant twigs in controlled growth chambers to study the effect of different temperature regimes (9, 17, 20 and 23 °C) and species identity on the patterns of phenological shifts. We observed a significant phenological shift in all the species showing preponement in the first flower out and senescence phases ranging from 0.56 to 3.0 and 0.77 to 4.04 days per degree increase in temperature, respectively. The duration of flowering phase in all the species showed a corresponding decrease along the gradient of increasing temperature, which was more driven by preponement of the flower senescence than the start of flowering. The patterns of phenological shifts were highly species-specific, and the magnitude of these shifts significantly varied in all the four pairs of congeneric species despite their phylogenetic similarity. Our study provides experimental support to the previous long-term observation and herbarium-based studies showing that the patterns of phenological shifts in response to global climate warming are likely to vary between species, even those belonging to same evolutionary stock. Our findings highlight that a one-size-fits-all strategy to manage the likely impacts of climate warming-induced phenological shifts will seldom succeed, and should instead be designed for the specific phenological responses of species and regions.

Spatiotemporal Variations of Forest Vegetation Phenology and Its Response to Climate Change in Northeast China

Vegetation phenology is an important indicator of vegetation dynamics. The boreal forest ecosystem is the main part of terrestrial ecosystem in the Northern Hemisphere and plays an important role in global carbon balance. In this study, the dynamic threshold method combined with the ground-based phenology observation data was applied to extract the forest phenological parameters from MODIS NDVI time-series. Then, the spatiotemporal variation of forest phenology is discussed and the relationship between phenological change and climatic factors was concluded in the northeast China from 2011 to 2020. The results indicated that the distribution of the optimal extraction threshold has spatial heterogeneity, and the changing rate was 3% and 2% with 1° increase in latitude for SOS (the start of the growing season) and EOS (the end of the growing season). This research also notes that the SOS had an advanced trend at a rate of 0.29 d/a while the EOS was delayed by 0.47 d/a. This variation of phenology varied from different forest types. We also found that the preseason temperature played a major role in effecting the forest phenology. The temperature in winter of the previous year had a significant effect on SOS in current year. Temperature in autumn of the current year had a significant effect on EOS.

Stronger Spring Phenological Advance in Future Warming Scenarios for Temperate Species With a Lower Chilling Sensitivity

Spring warming could induce earlier leaf-out or flowering of temperate plant species, and decreased chilling in winter has a delaying effect on spring phenology. However, the relative contribution of the decreased chilling and increased forcing on spring phenological change is unclear. Here, we analyzed the experimental data for 14 temperate woody species in Beijing, China and quantified the forcing requirements (FR) of spring phenology and chilling sensitivity (the ratio of the FR at the low chilling condition to the FR at the high chilling condition) for each species. Furthermore, using species-specific functions between the amount of chilling and FR, we established a phenological model to simulate the annual onset dates of spring events during the past 69 years (1952-2020) and in the future (2021-2099) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. We also developed a novel method to quantitatively split the predicted phenological change into the effects caused by changes in forcing and those caused by changes in chilling. The results show that the FR of spring events decreased with the increase in the amount of chilling, and this relationship could be described as an exponential decay function. The basic FR (the FR at the high chilling condition) and chilling sensitivity varied greatly among species. In the 1952-2020 period, the advancing effect of increased forcing was stronger than the effect of chilling, leading to earlier spring events with a mean trend of -1.96 days/decade. In future climate scenarios, the spring phenology of temperate species would continue to advance but will be limited by the decreased chilling. The species with lower chilling sensitivities showed stronger trends than those with high chilling sensitivities. Our results suggested that the delaying effect of declining chilling could only slow down the spring phenological advance to a certain extent in the future.

Distinct Climate Effects on Dahurian Larch Growth at an Asian Temperate-Boreal Forest Ecotone and Nearby Boreal Sites

Climate change is exerting profound impacts on the structure and function of global boreal forest. Compared with their northern counterparts, trees growing at the southern boreal forest and the temperate-boreal forest ecotone likely show distinct responses to climate change. Based on annual basal areal increment (BAI) of Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) plantations with similar ages, tree densities and soil nutrient conditions, we investigated the tree growth responses to inter-annual climate variations at an Asian temperate-boreal forest ecotone and nearby boreal sites in northeast China. Annual BAI changed nonlinearly with cambial age in the form of a lognormal curve. The maximum annual BAI showed no significant difference between the two bioregions, while annual BAI peaked at an elder age at the boreal-temperate forest ecotone. After eliminating the age associated trend, conditional regression analyses indicate that residual BAI at the boreal sites increased significantly with higher growing-season mean nighttime minimum temperature and non-growing-season precipitation, but decreased significantly with higher growing-season mean daytime maximum temperature during the past three decades (1985–2015). In contrast, residual BAI at the boreal-temperate forest ecotone only showed a positive and weak response to inter-annual variations of growing-season precipitation. These findings suggest distinct effects of inter-annual climate variation on the growth of boreal trees at the temperate-boreal forest ecotone in comparison to the southern boreal regions, and highlight future efforts to elucidate the key factors that regulate the growth ofthe southernmost boreal trees.

Distribution of vascular plants north of Lake Baikal: a new, open access dataset

Background

The area north of Lake Baikal has been poorly studied. Moreover, most of the studies conducted in this region were focused on mountain ridges or river valleys. This region includes a part of Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM), a broad-gauge railway in the centre of Siberia, Russia. The railway is an alternative route of the Trans-Siberian Railway; BAM starts in southern Siberia (Taishet station of Irktusk Oblast), passes through the northern part of Lake Baikal and finishes in the Russian Far East (Sovetskaya Gavan station of Khabarovsky Krai). BAM has four connections with the Trans-Siberian Railway and is the centre of economic development for many regions of Russia. Maya Ivanova and Alexandr Chepurnov summarised the existing floristic information for this region in detailed species distribution maps which they published in the book “Flora of the western part of developing regions of Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM)” (1983). After publishing this book, very few floristic studies have been performed in the study region. All available botanical information is still accumulated in a number of printed papers or books with limited circulation, which are not widely known to the international scientific community.

New information

We have digitised the point distribution maps from the book of Ivanova and Chepurnov and georeferenced all occurrence and sampling localities. The resulting dataset includes 9972 occurrences for 770 vascular plant species and subspecies from the area north of Lake Baikal. Additionally, the dataset includes information on the distribution of 43 rare and endangered species with 366 occurrences. From our point of view, the dataset makes a contribution to the global biodiversity data mobilisation, providing plant species distribution data for such a remote mountainous area.

Comparison of the distribution and phenology of Arctic Mountain plants between the early 20th and 21st centuries

Arctic plants are adapted to climatic variability, but their long-term responses to warming remain unclear. Responses may occur by range shifts, phenological adjustments in growth and reproduction, or both. Here, we compare distribution and phenology of 83 arctic and boreal mountain species, sampled identically in the early 20th (1917-1919) and 21st centuries (2017-2018) from a region of northern Sweden that has warmed significantly. We test two compensatory hypotheses to high-latitude warming-upward shifts in distribution, and earlier or extended growth and reproduction. For distribution, we show dramatic upward migration by 69% of species, averaging 6.1 m per decade, especially boreal woodland taxa whose upward expansion has reduced arctic montane habitat by 30%. Twenty percent of summit species showed distributional shifts but downward, especially moisture-associated snowbed flora. For phenology, we detected wide inter-annual variability in the onset of leafing and flowering in both eras. However, there was no detectable change in growing-season length, relating to two mechanisms. First, plot-level snow melt data starting in 1917 demonstrated that melt date, rather than vernal temperatures, better predicts plant emergence, with snow melt influenced by warmer years having greater snowfall-warmer springs did not always result in earlier emergence because snowbeds can persist longer. Second, the onset of reproductive senescence between eras was similar, even when plant emergence was earlier by a month, possibly due to intensified summer heat stress or hard-wired 'canalization' where senescence occurs regardless of summer temperature. Migrations in this system have possibly buffered arctic species against displacement by boreal expansion and warming, but ongoing temperature increases, woody plant invasion, and a potential lack of flexibility in timing of senescence may foreshadow challenges.