Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change

Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate-driven range shifts

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species' ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.

Effects of fine-scale habitat quality on activity, dormancy, habitat use, and survival after reproduction in Rana dybowskii (Chordata, Amphibia)

Amphibians are facing population declines and extinctions, and protecting and supplementing refuges can help species survive. However, the microhabitat requirements of most species are unknown, and artificial shelters or burrows have not been well tested for amphibians. Some amphibians exhibit complex behaviour during the transition from post-reproductive dormancy to activity. However, little is known about the ecology, post-reproductive dormancy, and terrestrial activity of amphibians. Here, habitat site selection in experimental enclosures and the effects of shelters (stones, soil) and shade (with and without shade netting) on the activity, exposed body percentage, burrow depth, body-soil contact percentage, and survival of Rana dybowskii were investigated during post-reproductive dormancy and post-dormant activity. The results showed that R. dybowskii live individually under leaves, soil, stones or tree roots. Furthermore, although the dormant sites of frogs are significantly different, the distribution of male and female frogs in these sites is similar. Shading and shelter significantly affected the exposed body percentage, burrow depth and body-soil contact percentage of frogs compared with soil. In the stone group, soil and stone form the frog's refuge/burrow, whereas in the soil group, the refuge/burrow is composed entirely of soil. Even though the soil group has a deeper burrow and a larger area of soil contact with the body, it still has a higher exposure rate than the stone group. Frog activity frequency was affected by shelter and shade; the interaction of shelter and time and the interaction of shading and time were significant. The soil group had a higher activity frequency than the stone group, and the no-shade group had a higher activity frequency than the shade group. Shelter and shading differences do not significantly affect frog survival; however, the death rate during post-reproductive dormancy is lower than that during the active period.

Factors influencing persistence of a threatened amphibian in restored wetlands despite severe population decline during climate change driven weather extremes

Biodiversity is in global decline during the Anthropocene. Declines have been caused by multiple factors, such as habitat removal, invasive species, and disease, which are often targets for conservation management. However, conservation interventions are under threat from climate change induced weather extremes. Weather extremes are becoming more frequent and devastating and an example of this was the 2019/2020 Australian drought and mega-fires. We provide a case study the impacts of these extreme weather events had on a population of the threatened frog Litoria aurea that occurs in a constructed habitat which was designed to reduce the impact of introduced fish and chytrid-induced disease. We aimed to determine what factors influenced persistence so that the design of wetlands can be further optimised to future-proof threatened amphibians. We achieved this with 4 years (2016-2020) of intensive capture-recapture surveys during austral spring and summer across nine wetlands (n = 94 repeat surveys). As hypothesized, drought caused a sharp reduction in population size, but persistence was achieved. The most parsimonious predictor of survival was an interaction between maximum air temperature and rainfall, indicating that weather extremes likely caused the decline. Survival was positively correlated with wetland vegetation coverage, positing this is an important feature to target to enhance resilience in wetland restoration programs. Additionally, the benefits obtained from measures to reduce chytrid prevalence were not compromised during drought, as there was a positive correlation between salinity and survival. We emphasize that many species may not be able to persist under worse extreme weather scenarios. Despite the potential for habitat augmentation to buffer effects of extreme weather, global action on climate change is needed to reduce extinction risk.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10531-022-02387-9.

Resilience of native amphibian communities following catastrophic drought: Evidence from a decade of regional-scale monitoring

The increasing frequency and severity of drought may exacerbate ongoing global amphibian declines. However, interactions between drought and coincident stressors, coupled with high interannual variability in amphibian abundances, can mask the extent and underlying mechanisms of drought impacts. We synthesized a decade (2009 - 2019) of regional-scale amphibian monitoring data (2273 surveys, 233 ponds, and seven species) from across California's Bay Area and used dynamic occupancy modeling to estimate trends and drivers of species occupancy. An extreme drought during the study period resulted in substantial habitat loss, with 51% of ponds drying in the worst year of drought, compared to <20% in pre-drought years. Nearly every species exhibited reduced breeding activity during the drought, with the occupancy of some species (American bullfrogs and California newts) declining by >25%. Invasive fishes and bullfrogs were also associated with reduced amphibian occupancy, and these taxa were locally extirpated from numerous sites during drought, without subsequent recovery-suggesting that drought may present an opportunity to remove invaders. Despite a historic, multi-year drought, native amphibians rebounded quickly to pre-drought occupancy levels, demonstrating evidence of resilience. Permanent waterbodies supported higher persistence of native species during drought years than did temporary waterbodies, and we therefore highlight the value of hydroperiod diversity in promoting amphibian stability.

From satellites to frogs: Quantifying ecohydrological change, drought mitigation, and population demography in desert meadows

Increasing frequency and severity of droughts have motivated natural resource managers to mitigate harmful ecological and hydrological effects of drought, but drought mitigation is an emerging science and evaluating its effectiveness is difficult. We examined ecohydrological responses of drought mitigation actions aimed at conserving populations of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) in a semi-arid valley in Nevada, USA. Abundance of this rare frog had declined precipitously after multiple droughts. Mitigation included excavating ponds to increase available surface water and installing earthen dams to raise water tables. We assessed responses of riparian vegetation to mitigation using a 30-year time series of satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and gridded weather data. We then analyzed a 23-year mark-recapture dataset to evaluate the effects of drought mitigation and NDVI on the probability of frog survival and rates of recruitment. After accounting for interannual precipitation variability, we found that NDVI increased significantly from before to after drought mitigation, suggesting that mitigation influenced the hydrology and vegetation of the meadows. Frog survival increased with NDVI, but mitigation had a stronger effect than NDVI suggesting that excavated mitigation ponds were particularly important for frog survival during drought. In contrast, frog recruitment was associated with NDVI more than mitigation, but only in meadows where NDVI was dependent on precipitation. At meadows with available groundwater, recruitment was associated with mitigation ponds. These findings suggest that mitigation ponds are critical for juvenile frogs to recruit into the adult population, but recruitment can also be increased by raising water tables in meadows lacking groundwater sources. Lagged recruitment (i.e., effects on larvae and juveniles) was negatively associated with NDVI. This study illustrates the ecohydrological complexity of drought mitigation and demonstrates novel ways to assess the effectiveness of drought mitigation using time series of readily available satellite imagery and organismal data.

Manipulating water for amphibian conservation

Amphibian populations globally are in decline. One great threat is the abstraction of water resources that alter surface-water hydrology. Conservation actions aimed at restoring or manipulating surface water are employed as a management tool, but empirical evidence on the effectiveness of these approaches is scarce. In this systematic review, we summarized the global experience of manipulating water for amphibian conservation. We explored examples of manipulating water to conserve amphibian species and communities. Approaches varied in their frequency of implementation and in their success. Extending hydroperiod to match larval requirements showed encouraging results, as did off-season drying to control predators. Spraying water into the environment showed several potential applications, but successes were limited. Despite some promising interventions, we identified few (n = 17) empirically supported examples of successful water manipulation to benefit amphibians. It is unclear whether this stems from publication bias or if it is an artifact of language selection. However, manipulating water shows some potential in amphibian conservation, particularly at sites with a proximal water source and in regions where aridity is increasing due to climate change. Regardless of the scale of the intervention or its perceived probability of success, high-quality reporting of empirical results will further understanding of how water manipulations can benefit threatened amphibian populations.

Habitat selection by a threatened desert amphibian

Habitat degradation and fragmentation are major drivers of amphibian declines. The loss of environmental features that allow for movement between water sources may be particularly detrimental for amphibians in arid environments. Climate changes will increase the importance of microhabitats to amphibians. Enhancing areas to facilitate movement may be a necessary conservation strategy for many animal species that depend on wetlands, including federally threatened Chiricahua leopard frogs (Lithobates chiricahuensis). Habitat preferences of this frog species are not well understood. We sought to better understand fine-scale habitat selection, to inform conservation of Chiricahua leopard frogs. We conducted our study on the Ladder Ranch, a privately owned working bison ranch in New Mexico, USA that supports a large proportion of the remaining Chiricahua leopard frogs in the state. We attached radio transmitters to 44 frogs during summer 2014. We located each frog daily for up to 8 weeks (median = 30 days). We assessed fine-scale habitat selection by comparing characteristics at each frog location and a random location 5 m away using conditional logistic regression. Frogs preferred features that likely reduce desiccation, even after accounting for the presence of water. Frogs selected areas with more low-lying cover, especially aquatic vegetation and woody debris, a tree overstory, and a mud substrate. We recommend managing potential movement corridors for Chiricahua leopard frogs by ensuring the presence of muddy creek bottoms, woody debris, riparian overstory, low-lying ground cover, and pools. Microclimates created by these features seem especially valuable given warming temperatures and modified precipitation regimes, resulting in decreased surface water, soil moisture, and vegetation cover. Retaining or creating preferred habitat features and microclimates in areas between water sources may increase connectivity among isolated populations of Chiricahua leopard frogs and could improve persistence and recovery of other water-obligate species in arid landscapes.

Climate change and ageing in ectotherms

Human activity is changing climatic conditions at an unprecedented rate. The impact of these changes may be especially acute on ectotherms since they have limited capacities to use metabolic heat to maintain their body temperature. An increase in temperature is likely to increase the growth rate of ectothermic animals, and may also induce thermal stress via increased exposure to heat waves. Fast growth and thermal stress are metabolically demanding, and both factors can increase oxidative damage to essential biomolecules, accelerating the rate of ageing. Here, we explore the potential impact of global warming on ectotherm ageing through its effects on reactive oxygen species production, oxidative damage, and telomere shortening, at the individual and intergenerational levels. Most evidence derives primarily from vertebrates, although the concepts are broadly applicable to invertebrates. We also discuss candidate mechanisms that could buffer ectotherms from the potentially negative consequences of climate change on ageing. Finally, we suggest some potential applications of the study of ageing mechanisms for the implementation of conservation actions. We find a clear need for more ecological, biogeographical, and evolutionary studies on the impact of global climate change on patterns of ageing rates in wild populations of ectotherms facing warming conditions. Understanding the impact of warming on animal life histories, and on ageing in particular, needs to be incorporated into the design of measures to preserve biodiversity to improve their effectiveness.

Reconciling larval and adult sampling methods to model growth across life-stages

Individual growth rates are intrinsically related to survival and lifetime reproductive success and hence, are key determinants of population growth. Efforts to quantify age-size relationships are hampered by difficulties in aging individuals in wild populations. In addition, species with complex life-histories often show distinct shifts in growth that cannot be readily accommodated by traditional modelling techniques. Amphibians are often characterized by rapid larval growth, cessation of growth prior to metamorphosis, and resumption of growth in the adult stage. Compounding issues of non-linear growth, amphibian monitoring programs typically sample larval and adult populations using dissimilar methods. Here we present the first multistage growth model that combines disparate data collected across life-history stages. We model the growth of the endangered Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander, Ambystoma bishopi, in a Bayesian framework, that accounts for unknown ages, individual heterogeneity, and reconciles dip-net and drift fence sampling designs. Flatwoods salamanders achieve 60% of growth in the first 3 months of life but can survive for up to 13 years as a terrestrial adult. We find evidence for marked variability in growth rate, the timing and age at metamorphosis, and maximum size, within populations. Average size of metamorphs in a given year appeared strongly dependent on hydroperiod, and differed by >10mm across years with successful recruitment. In contrast, variation in the sizes of emerging metamorphs appeared relatively constant across years. An understanding of growth will contribute to the development of population viability analyses for flatwoods salamanders, will guide management actions, and will ultimately aid the recovery of the species. Our model formulation has broad applicability to amphibians, and likely any stage-structured organism in which homogenous data cannot be collected across life-stages. The tendency to ignore stage-structure or omit non-conforming data in growth analyses can no longer be afforded given the high stakes of management decisions, particularly for endangered or at-risk populations.

Habitat patches for newts in the face of climate change: local scale assessment combining niche modelling and graph theory

Triturus cristatus and Triturus marmoratus are two protected and declining newts occurring in the administrative department of Vienne, in France. They have limited dispersal abilities and rely on the connectivity between habitats and their suitability. In a warming climate, the locations of suitable habitats are expected to change, as is the connectivity. Here, we wondered how climate change might affect shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity of habitat patches, as connectivity is a key element enabling species to realize a potential range shift. We used ecological niche modelling (ENM), combining large-scale climate suitability with local scale, high-resolution habitat features, to identify suitable areas for the two species, under low and high warming scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We associated it with connectivity assessment through graph theory. The variable 'small ponds' contributed most to land cover-only ENMs for both species. Projections with climate change scenarios revealed a potential impact of warming on suitable habitat patches for newts, especially for T. cristatus. We observed a decrease in connectivity following a decrease in patch suitability. Our results highlight the important areas for newt habitat connectivity within the study area, and define those potentially threatened by climate warming. We provide information for prioritizing sites for acquisition, protection or restoration, and to advise landscape policies. Our framework is a useful and easily reproducible way to combine global climate requirements of the species with detailed information on species habitats and occurrence when available.

An artificial habitat increases the reproductive fitness of a range-shifting species within a newly colonized ecosystem

When a range-shifting species colonizes an ecosystem it has not previously inhabited, it may experience suboptimal conditions that challenge its continued persistence and expansion. Some impacts may be partially mitigated by artificial habitat analogues: artificial habitats that more closely resemble a species’ historic ecosystem than the surrounding habitat. If conditions provided by such habitats increase reproductive success, they could be vital to the expansion and persistence of range-shifting species. We investigated the reproduction of the mangrove tree crab Aratus pisonii in its historic mangrove habitat, the suboptimal colonized salt marsh ecosystem, and on docks within the marsh, an artificial mangrove analogue. Crabs were assessed for offspring production and quality, as well as measures of maternal investment and egg quality. Aratus pisonii found on docks produced more eggs, more eggs per unit energy investment, and higher quality larvae than conspecifics in the surrounding salt marsh. Yet, crabs in the mangrove produced the highest quality larvae. Egg lipids suggest these different reproductive outcomes result from disparities in the quality of diet-driven maternal investments, particularly key fatty acids. This study suggests habitat analogues may increase the reproductive fitness of range-shifting species allowing more rapid expansion into, and better persistence in, colonized ecosystems.

Shifts in temperature influence how Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infects amphibian larvae

Many climate change models predict increases in frequency and magnitude of temperature fluctuations that might impact how ectotherms are affected by disease. Shifts in temperature might especially affect amphibians, a group with populations that have been challenged by several pathogens. Because amphibian hosts invest more in immunity at warmer than cooler temperatures and parasites might acclimate to temperature shifts faster than hosts (creating lags in optimal host immunity), researchers have hypothesized that a temperature shift from cold-to-warm might result in increased amphibian sensitivity to pathogens, whereas a shift from warm-to-cold might result in decreased sensitivity. Support for components of this climate-variability based hypothesis have been provided by prior studies of the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) that causes the disease chytridiomycosis in amphibians. We experimentally tested whether temperature shifts before exposure to Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) alters susceptibility to the disease chytridiomycosis in the larval stage of two amphibian species–western toads (Anaxyrus boreas) and northern red legged frogs (Rana aurora). Both host species harbored elevated Bd infection intensities under constant cold (15° C) temperature in comparison to constant warm (20° C) temperature. Additionally, both species experienced an increase in Bd infection abundance after shifted from 15° C to 20° C, compared to a constant 20° C but they experienced a decrease in Bd after shifted from 20° C to 15° C, compared to a constant 15° C. These results are in contrast to prior studies of adult amphibians highlighting the potential for species and stage differences in the temperature-dependence of chytridiomycosis.

Future hydrological constraints of the Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) under changing climate and vegetation cover

The Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) is a critically endangered amphibian species which inhabits a small 20 km2 holm oak and beech forest area in NE Spain. Calotriton arnoldi strictly lives in running waters and might be highly vulnerable to hydrological perturbations expected to occur under climate and vegetation cover changes. Knowledge about the potential response of the species habitat to environmental changes can help assessing the actions needed for its conservation. Based on knowledge of the species and supported by observations, we proposed daily low and high streamflow event thresholds for the viability of C. arnoldi. We used the rainfall-runoff model PERSiST to simulate changes in the frequency and duration of these events, which were predicted under two climate and four vegetation cover scenarios for near-future (2031-2050) and far-future (2081-2100) periods in a reference catchment. All future scenarios projected a significant decrease in annual streamflow (from 21% to as much as 67%) with respect to the reference period. The frequency and length of low streamflow events will dramatically increase. In contrast, the risk of catastrophic drift linked to high streamflow events was predicted to decrease. The potential change in vegetation toward an expansion of holm oak forests will be more important than climate changes in determining threshold low flow conditions. We thus demonstrated that consideration of potential changes in vegetation and not only changes in climate variables is essential in simulating future streamflows. This study shows that future low streamflow conditions will pose a severe threat for the survival of C. arnoldi and may help taking management actions, including limiting the expansion of holm oak forest, for ameliorating the species habitat and help its conservation.

The Effects of Interaction between Climate Change and Land-Use/Cover Change on Biodiversity-Related Ecosystem Services

Climate change and land-use/cover change (LUCC) are two major types of global environmental change. They are increasingly challenging the main objectives of ecosystem management, which are to provide ecosystem services sustainably to society and maintain biodiversity. However, a comprehensive understanding of how climate-land-use change affects these primary goals of ecosystem management is still lacking. Here, a global literature review on the impacts of climate change and LUCC on ecosystem services related to biodiversity is presented. In this review, possible ecological responses at species, community, and ecosystem levels, and the effects of interaction mechanisms between climate change and LUCC on biodiversity-related ecosystem services are identified. The results show possible effects on species facing climate change challenges through affecting distribution/range shifts, interspecific relations, richness, and abundance, and the impacts on biodiversity through increasing extinction rates, nutrient deposition, and habitat fragmentation under LUCC. Climate change may hinder the ability of species to deal with LUCC, and in turn LUCC could reduce resilience to climate change. Understanding of these interactions is necessary to address the increasing pressure on sustainable provisioning of ecosystem services under different climate and land-use scenarios in the future.

Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate

Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the extinction risk of species whose persistence is already compromised by habitat loss, invasive species, disease, or other stressors. In coastal areas of the southeastern United States (USA), many imperiled vertebrates are vulnerable to hurricanes, which climate models predict to become more severe in the 21st century. Despite this escalating threat, explicit adaptation strategies that address hurricane threats, in particular, and climate change more generally, are largely underrepresented in recovery planning and implementation. We provide a basis for stronger emphasis on strategic planning for imperiled species facing the increasing threat of catastrophic hurricanes. Our reasoning comes from observations of short-term environmental and biological impacts of Hurricane Michael, which impacted the Gulf Coast of the southeastern USA in October 2018. During this storm, St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge, located along the northern Gulf of Mexico's coast in the panhandle region of Florida, received storm surge that was 3.0-3.6 m (NAVD88) above sea level. Storm surge pushed sea water into some ephemeral freshwater ponds used for breeding by the federally threatened frosted flatwoods salamander (Ambystoma cingulatum). After the storm, specific conductance across all ponds measured varied from 80 to 23,100 µS/cm, compared to 75 to 445 µS/cm in spring 2018. For 17 overwashed wetlands that were measured in both spring and fall 2018, posthurricane conductance observations were, on average, more than 90 times higher than in the previous spring, setting the stage for varying population responses across this coastal landscape. Importantly, we found live individual flatwoods salamanders at both overwashed and non-overwashed sites, although we cannot yet assess the demographic consequences of this storm. We outline actions that could be incorporated into climate adaptation strategies and recovery planning for imperiled species, like A. cingulatum, that are associated with freshwater coastal wetlands in hurricane-prone regions.

Spatial variation in anuran richness, diversity, and abundance across montane wetland habitat in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda

The spatial distribution of species has long sparked interest among ecologists and biogeographers, increasingly so in studies of species responses to climate change. However, field studies on spatial patterns of distribution, useful to inform conservation actions at local scales, are still lacking for many regions, especially the tropics. We studied elevational trends and species-area relationships among anurans in wetland habitats within Volcanoes National Park (VNP) in Rwanda, part of the biodiverse Albertine Rift region. In VNP, wetlands are key sites for anuran reproduction, and anurans are likely threatened by wetland desiccation which has occurred for the last few decades. Between 2012 and 2017, we sampled anuran communities in ten VNP wetlands located along an elevational gradient of c. 600 m (from 2,546 to 3,188 m a.s.l.) and found at least eight species, including at least two Albertine Rift Endemics. We show that species richness, diversity, and abundance likely decline with a decrease in wetland size and with an increase in elevation, though additional sampling (e.g., at night) might be needed to derive definite conclusions. Larger wetlands at lower elevations contained most species and individuals, which indicates the potential threat of wetland size reduction (through desiccation) for anuran conservation. However, we also found that wetlands differed in species composition and that some species (e.g., Sclerophrys kisoloensis) were likely restricted in distribution to only a few of the smaller wetlands-suggesting that the conservation of each individual wetland should be prioritized, regardless of size. We propose that all wetlands in VNP require additional conservation measures, which should be based on knowledge gathered through long-term monitoring of anuran communities and research on drivers of wetland decline. Only such extended research will allow us to understand the response of anurans in VNP to threats such as climate change and wetland desiccation.

An artificial habitat facilitates a climate-mediated range expansion into a suboptimal novel ecosystem

As the geographic ranges of tropical species and ecosystems continue to shift poleward with climate change, it is critical to prediction and management to identify factors that facilitate these expansions. This is especially true for range shifts that involve the decoupling of a shifting species from its historic ecosystem and the colonization of an ecosystem that it has not previously inhabited (i.e. is novel to the shifting species). In cases where the colonized ecosystem is suboptimal for the shifting species, stepping stone refuges may play a critical role in facilitating further expansion. Here we document the facilitation of the northward range expansion of the mangrove tree crab (Aratus pisonii) into the previously uninhabited salt marsh ecosystem by artificial boat docks. While the cold tolerance of crabs did not differ between habitats, they were found on docks 36 km and 22 km further north than elsewhere in the salt marsh after the winters of 2016-‘17 and ‘17-’18, respectively. This extended range-edge appears to be a result of docks within the salt marsh acting as a stepping stone refuge by providing this historically tropical species with a relatively warm thermal refuge during the winter that mitigates seasonal population die-backs exhibited elsewhere at the range-edge. Further, population abundances were higher on docks at the range-edge than in the surrounding salt marsh. While artificial habitats often favor the expansion of non-indigenous species, our results demonstrate the facilitation of a native species’ range shift into a suboptimal ecosystem which it has not previously inhabited. The potential for analogous and refuge habitats, artificial or otherwise, to increase the rate and success of range shifts could be critical to the fate of many current and future range shifting species.

Reconnecting Amphibian Habitat through Small Pond Construction and Enhancement, South Okanagan River Valley, British Columbia, Canada

The arid south Okanagan River Valley, British Columbia is a highly-modified landscape; where wetland and riparian habitat loss exceeds 85%, and 88% of remaining wetlands experience at least one harmful anthropogenic stressor. This multi-stressor landscape for amphibian species at risk led to a collaborative stakeholder approach for habitat restoration and species recovery. The main project goal was to increase the quantity and quality of lowland wetland habitat by reconnecting known amphibian-breeding sites with constructed and/or enhanced small ponds. Long-term amphibian monitoring data were used to determine strategic locations for wetland construction and/or enhancement. Habitat enhancement outcomes (Ntotal = 21 sites) since 2006 include 10 newly constructed ponds, enhancement of eight re-contoured ponds after historic infilling, and invasive predatory species removal at three sites. Project ponds were monitored annually (2007 to 2014) for calling frogs, the presence of eggs, and metamorphic emergence. Early signs of colonization and metamorphic success for Great Basin Spadefoot (Spea intermontana) (N = 13 sites) and Pacific treefrog (Pseudacris regilla) (N = 7 sites) populations have been observed, however no records of Blotched tiger salamanders (Ambystoma mavortium) colonization has been detected. Wetland habitat construction and enhancement have doubled the number of available fishless ponds to support breeding within the study area and engaged landowners through voluntary stewardship. Whether constructed or enhanced ponds have aided species recovery is unclear, though the colonization and successful metamorphosis of some species provides early supporting evidence that it will.

An anthropogenic habitat within a suboptimal colonized ecosystem provides improved conditions for a range-shifting species

Many species are shifting their ranges in response to the changing climate. In cases where such shifts lead to the colonization of a new ecosystem, it is critical to establish how the shifting species itself is impacted by novel environmental and biological interactions. Anthropogenic habitats that are analogous to the historic habitat of a shifting species may play a crucial role in the ability of that species to expand or persist in suboptimal colonized ecosystems. We tested if the anthropogenic habitat of docks, a likely mangrove analog, provides improved conditions for the range-shifting mangrove tree crab Aratus pisonii within the colonized suboptimal salt marsh ecosystem. To test if docks provided an improved habitat, we compared the impact of the salt marsh and dock habitats on ecological and life history traits that influence the ability of this species to persist and expand into the salt marsh and compared these back to baselines in the historic mangrove ecosystem. Specifically, we examined behavior, physiology, foraging, and the thermal conditions of A. pisonii in each habitat. We found that docks provide a more favorable thermal and foraging habitat than the surrounding salt marsh, while their ability to provide conditions which improved behavior and physiology was mixed. Our study shows that anthropogenic habitats can act as analogs to historic ecosystems and enhance the habitat quality for range-shifting species in colonized suboptimal ecosystems. If the patterns that we document are general across systems, then anthropogenic habitats may play an important facilitative role in the range shifts of species with continued climate change.

Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework

Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats.

Use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index as an Assessment Tool for Reptiles and Amphibians: Lessons Learned

Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.

Mapping the Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability for Australia's Threatened Species

Effective conservation management for climate adaptation rests on understanding the factors driving species' vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner so as to direct on-ground action. However, there have been only few attempts to map the spatial distribution of the factors driving vulnerability to climate change. Here we conduct a species-level assessment of climate change vulnerability for a sample of Australia's threatened species and map the distribution of species affected by each factor driving climate change vulnerability across the continent. Almost half of the threatened species assessed were considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: amphibians being the most vulnerable group, followed by plants, reptiles, mammals and birds. Species with more restricted distributions were more likely to show high climate change vulnerability than widespread species. The main factors driving climate change vulnerability were low genetic variation, dependence on a particular disturbance regime and reliance on a particular moisture regime or habitat. The geographic distribution of the species impacted by each driver varies markedly across the continent, for example species impacted by low genetic variation are prevalent across the human-dominated south-east of the country, while reliance on particular moisture regimes is prevalent across northern Australia. Our results show that actions to address climate adaptation will need to be spatially appropriate, and that in some regions a complex suite of factors driving climate change vulnerability will need to be addressed. Taxonomic and geographic variation in the factors driving climate change vulnerability highlights an urgent need for a spatial prioritisation of climate adaptation actions for threatened species.

Populations, pools, and peccaries: simulating the impact of ecosystem engineers on rainforest frogs

Peccary wallows and footprints are important breeding pools for rainforest frogs. We performed a resource supplementation experiment with artificial pools, simulating peccary actions, in a population of the poison frog Allobates femoralis. The population almost doubled resulting from increased local reproduction, but not from immigration. These findings demonstrate the importance of “ecosystem engineers,” such as peccaries, for other species, the frogs. Our results also indicate that human engineering may help to protect amphibian populations.

“Ecosystem engineering” describes habitat alteration by an organism that affects another organism; such nontrophic interactions between organisms are a current focus in ecological research. Our study quantifies the actual impact an ecosystem engineer can have on another species by using a previously identified model system—peccaries and rainforest frogs. In a 4-year experiment, we simulated the impact of peccaries on a population of Allobates femoralis (Dendrobatidae) by installing an array of artificial pools to mimic a forest patch modified by peccaries. The data were analyzed using a gradual before-after control-impact (gBACI) model. Following the supplementation, population size almost doubled as a result of increased autochthonous recruitment driven by a higher per-capita reproduction of males and a higher proportion of reproducing females. The effect was evenly distributed across the population. The differential response of males and females reflects the reproductive behavior of A. femoralis, as only the males use the aquatic sites for tadpole deposition. Our study shows that management and conservation must consider nontrophic relationships and that human “ecosystem engineering” can play a vital role in efforts against the “global amphibian decline.”

Modelling interspecific hybridization with genome exclusion to identify conservation actions: the case of native and invasive Pelophylax waterfrogs

Interspecific hybridization occurs in nature but can also be caused by human actions. It often leads to infertile or fertile hybrids that exclude one parental genome during gametogenesis, escaping genetic recombination and introgression. The threat that genome-exclusion hybridization might represent on parental species is poorly understood, especially when invasive species are involved. Here, we show how to assess the effects of genome-exclusion hybridization and how to elaborate conservation actions by simulating scenarios using a model of nonintrogressive hybridization. We examine the case of the frog Pelophylax ridibundus, introduced in Western Europe, which can hybridize with the native Pelophylax lessonae and the pre-existing hybrid Pelophylax esculentus, maintained by hybridogenesis. If translocated from Southern Europe, P. ridibundus produces new sterile hybrids and we show that it mainly threatens P. esculentus. Translocation from Central Europe leads to new fertile hybrids, threatening all native waterfrogs. Local extinction is demographically mediated via wasted reproductive potential or via demographic flow through generations towards P. ridibundus. We reveal that enlarging the habitat size of the native P. lessonae relative to that of the invader is a promising conservation strategy, avoiding the difficulties of fighting the invader. We finally stress that nonintrogressive hybridization is to be considered in conservation programmes.

Interventions for reducing extinction risk in chytridiomycosis-threatened amphibians

Wildlife diseases pose an increasing threat to biodiversity and are a major management challenge. A striking example of this threat is the emergence of chytridiomycosis. Despite diagnosis of chytridiomycosis as an important driver of global amphibian declines 15 years ago, researchers have yet to devise effective large-scale management responses other than biosecurity measures to mitigate disease spread and the establishment of disease-free captive assurance colonies prior to or during disease outbreaks. We examined the development of management actions that can be implemented after an epidemic in surviving populations. We developed a conceptual framework with clear interventions to guide experimental management and applied research so that further extinctions of amphibian species threatened by chytridiomycosis might be prevented. Within our framework, there are 2 management approaches: reducing Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (the fungus that causes chytridiomycosis) in the environment or on amphibians and increasing the capacity of populations to persist despite increased mortality from disease. The latter approach emphasizes that mitigation does not necessarily need to focus on reducing disease-associated mortality. We propose promising management actions that can be implemented and tested based on current knowledge and that include habitat manipulation, antifungal treatments, animal translocation, bioaugmentation, head starting, and selection for resistance. Case studies where these strategies are being implemented will demonstrate their potential to save critically endangered species.

Ecological ethics in captivity: balancing values and responsibilities in zoo and aquarium research under rapid global change

Ethical obligations to animals in conservation research and management are manifold and often conflicting. Animal welfare concerns often clash with the ethical imperative to understand and conserve a population or ecosystem through research and management intervention. The accelerating pace and impact of global environmental change, especially climate change, complicates our understanding of these obligations. One example is the blurring of the distinction between ex situ (zoo- and aquarium-based) conservation and in situ (field-based) approaches as zoos and aquariums become more active in field conservation work and as researchers and managers consider more intensive interventions in wild populations and ecosystems to meet key conservation goals. These shifts, in turn, have consequences for our traditional understanding of the ethics of wildlife research and management, including our relative weighting of animal welfare and conservation commitments across rapidly evolving ex situ and in situ contexts. Although this changing landscape in many ways supports the increased use of captive wildlife in conservation-relevant research, it raises significant ethical concerns about human intervention in populations and ecosystems, including the proper role of zoos and aquariums as centers for animal research and conservation in the coming decades. Working through these concerns requires a pragmatic approach to ethical analysis, one that is able to make trade-offs among the many goods at stake (e.g., animal welfare, species viability, and ecological integrity) as we strive to protect species from further decline and extinction in this century.

Multiple dimensions of climate change and their implications for biodiversity

The 21st century is projected to witness unprecedented climatic changes, with greater warming often reported for high latitudes. Yet, climate change can be measured in a variety of ways, reflecting distinct dimensions of change with unequal spatial patterns across the world. Polar climates are projected to not only warm, but also to shrink in area. By contrast, today's hot and arid climates are expected to expand worldwide and to reach climate states with no current analog. Although rarely appreciated in combination, these multiple dimensions of change convey complementary information. We review existing climate change metrics and discuss how they relate to threats and opportunities for biodiversity. Interpreting climate change metrics is particularly useful for unknown or poorly described species, which represent most of Earth's biodiversity.

Climate change and the distribution of neotropical red-bellied toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): how to prioritize species and populations?

We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis, and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri, and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term.

Roles of patch characteristics, drought frequency, and restoration in long-term trends of a widespread amphibian

Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long-term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg-mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state-space and linear-regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long-term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change. Papeles de las Características del Fragmento, Frecuencia de Sequía y Restauración en las Tendencias a Largo Plazo de un Anfibio Ampliamente Distribuido.