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Drake JE, Vårhammar A, Aspinwall MJ, Pfautsch S, Ghannoum O, Tissue DT, Tjoelker MG. Pushing the envelope: do narrowly and widely distributed Eucalyptus species differ in response to climate warming? THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2024; 243:82-97. [PMID: 38666344 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19774] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2023] [Accepted: 03/29/2024] [Indexed: 06/07/2024]
Abstract
Contemporary climate change will push many tree species into conditions that are outside their current climate envelopes. Using the Eucalyptus genus as a model, we addressed whether species with narrower geographical distributions show constrained ability to cope with warming relative to species with wider distributions, and whether this ability differs among species from tropical and temperate climates. We grew seedlings of widely and narrowly distributed Eucalyptus species from temperate and tropical Australia in a glasshouse under two temperature regimes: the summer temperature at seed origin and +3.5°C. We measured physical traits and leaf-level gas exchange to assess warming influences on growth rates, allocation patterns, and physiological acclimation capacity. Warming generally stimulated growth, such that higher relative growth rates early in development placed seedlings on a trajectory of greater mass accumulation. The growth enhancement under warming was larger among widely than narrowly distributed species and among temperate rather than tropical provenances. The differential growth enhancement was primarily attributable to leaf area production and adjustments of specific leaf area. Our results suggest that tree species, including those with climate envelopes that will be exceeded by contemporary climate warming, possess capacity to physiologically acclimate but may have varying ability to adjust morphology.
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Affiliation(s)
- John E Drake
- Department of Sustainable Resources Management, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY, 13210, USA
| | - Angelica Vårhammar
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia
| | | | - Sebastian Pfautsch
- Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, 2751, NSW, Australia
| | - Oula Ghannoum
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia
| | - David T Tissue
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia
| | - Mark G Tjoelker
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia
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2
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Zhou Y, Guo S, Wang T, Zong S, Ge X. Modeling the pest-pathogen threats in a warming world for the red turpentine beetle (Dendroctonus valens) and its symbiotic fungus (Leptographium procerum). PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2024; 80:3423-3435. [PMID: 38407566 DOI: 10.1002/ps.8046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2023] [Revised: 02/18/2024] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 02/27/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dendroctonus valens along with its symbiotic fungi have caused unprecedented damage to pines in China. Leptographium procerum, its primary symbiotic fungus, facilitates the invasion and colonization of the pest, thereby aggravating ecological threats. Assessing shifts in the niches and ranges of D. valens and its symbiotic fungus could provide a valuable basis for pest control. Here, we conducted niche comparisons between native and invasive populations of D. valens. Then, we employed standard ecological niche models and ensembles of small models to predict the potential distributions of D. valens and L. procerum under climate change conditions and to estimate areas of overlap. RESULTS The niche of invasive population of D. valens in Chinese mainland only occupied a limited portion of the niche of native population in North America, leaving a substantial native niche unfilled and without any niche expansion. The suitable regions for D. valens are predicted in central and southern North America and central and northeastern Chinese mainland. The overlap with the suitable regions of L. procerum included eastern North America and the central and northeastern Chinese mainland under historical climatic scenarios. The regions susceptible to their symbiotic damage will shift northward in response to future climate change. CONCLUSIONS Projected distributions of D. valens and its symbiotic fungus, along with areas vulnerable to their symbiotic damage, provide essential insights for devising strategies against this association. Additionally, our study contributes to comprehending how biogeographic approaches aid in estimating potential risks of pest-pathogen interactions in forests within a warming world. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuting Zhou
- Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
| | - Siwei Guo
- Department of Geology and Mining, Henan Geology Mineral College, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Tao Wang
- Mentougou Forestry Station, Beijing, China
| | - Shixiang Zong
- Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
| | - Xuezhen Ge
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
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3
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Li GY, Li Y, Liu H. Distribution patterns of Phytoseiulus persimilis in response to climate change. PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2024. [PMID: 38837311 DOI: 10.1002/ps.8196] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2023] [Revised: 05/08/2024] [Accepted: 05/13/2024] [Indexed: 06/07/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The biological control agent Phytoseiulus persimilis is a commercialized specialist predator of two agricultural pest mite species Tetranychus urticae and Tetranychus evansi. Biocontrol of these pest species by P. persimilis has achieved success in biological control in some areas. However, the lack of precise information about the influence of global climate change on the worldwide distribution of this biocontrol agent hampers international efforts to manage pest mites with P. persimilis. With 276 occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables, this study investigated the potential global distribution of P. persimilis. RESULTS The results demonstrated that the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model performed well, with the area under the curve being 0.956, indicating the high accuracy of this model. Two variables, the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio_6) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio_19) were the most important environmental variables that influenced the distribution of P. persimilis, contributing more than 30% to the model, respectively. The suitable area currently occupies 21.67% of the world's land area, spanning latitudes between 60°S and 60°N. Under shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 (high-carbon emissions), the low suitable area would increase by 1.31% until the 2050s. CONCLUSION This study successfully identified that south-eastern China, parts of countries in the Mediterranean coastal regions, including Libya, Algeria, Portugal, Spain, and France, are climatically favorable regions for P. persimilis, providing valuable information about the potential areas where it can be effectively exploited as biocontrol agents in classical biological control programs to manage pest spider mites environmentally friendly. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guang-Yun Li
- Key Laboratory of Entomology and Pest Control Engineering, College of Plant Protection, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
- Key Laboratory of Agricultural Biosafety and Green Production of Upper Yangtze River (Ministry of Education), Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Yuchuang Li
- Key Laboratory of Entomology and Pest Control Engineering, College of Plant Protection, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
- Key Laboratory of Agricultural Biosafety and Green Production of Upper Yangtze River (Ministry of Education), Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Huai Liu
- Key Laboratory of Entomology and Pest Control Engineering, College of Plant Protection, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
- Key Laboratory of Agricultural Biosafety and Green Production of Upper Yangtze River (Ministry of Education), Southwest University, Chongqing, China
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4
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Chen C, Granados A, Brodie JF, Kays R, Davies TJ, Liu R, Fisher JT, Ahumada J, McShea W, Sheil D, Mohd-Azlan J, Agwanda B, Andrianarisoa MH, Appleton RD, Bitariho R, Espinosa S, Grigione MM, Helgen KM, Hubbard A, Hurtado CM, Jansen PA, Jiang X, Jones A, Kalies EL, Kiebou-Opepa C, Li X, Lima MGM, Meyer E, Miller AB, Murphy T, Piana R, Quan RC, Rota CT, Rovero F, Santos F, Schuttler S, Uduman A, van Bommel JK, Young H, Burton AC. Combining camera trap surveys and IUCN range maps to improve knowledge of species distributions. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2024; 38:e14221. [PMID: 37937455 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2022] [Revised: 10/05/2023] [Accepted: 10/31/2023] [Indexed: 11/09/2023]
Abstract
Reliable maps of species distributions are fundamental for biodiversity research and conservation. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) range maps are widely recognized as authoritative representations of species' geographic limits, yet they might not always align with actual occurrence data. In recent area of habitat (AOH) maps, areas that are not habitat have been removed from IUCN ranges to reduce commission errors, but their concordance with actual species occurrence also remains untested. We tested concordance between occurrences recorded in camera trap surveys and predicted occurrences from the IUCN and AOH maps for 510 medium- to large-bodied mammalian species in 80 camera trap sampling areas. Across all areas, cameras detected only 39% of species expected to occur based on IUCN ranges and AOH maps; 85% of the IUCN only mismatches occurred within 200 km of range edges. Only 4% of species occurrences were detected by cameras outside IUCN ranges. The probability of mismatches between cameras and the IUCN range was significantly higher for smaller-bodied mammals and habitat specialists in the Neotropics and Indomalaya and in areas with shorter canopy forests. Our findings suggest that range and AOH maps rarely underrepresent areas where species occur, but they may more often overrepresent ranges by including areas where a species may be absent, particularly at range edges. We suggest that combining range maps with data from ground-based biodiversity sensors, such as camera traps, provides a richer knowledge base for conservation mapping and planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng Chen
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Alys Granados
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Felidae Conservation Fund, Mill Valley, California, USA
| | - Jedediah F Brodie
- Division of Biological Sciences and Wildlife Biology Program, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Roland Kays
- North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - T Jonathan Davies
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Runzhe Liu
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biology Department, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Jason T Fisher
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Jorge Ahumada
- Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia, USA
| | - William McShea
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian's National Zoo & Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, Virginia, USA
| | - Douglas Sheil
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Akershus, Norway
- Center for International Forestry Research, Bogor, Indonesia
| | - Jayasilan Mohd-Azlan
- Institute of Biodiversity and Environmental Conservation, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Kota Samarahan, Malaysia
| | | | | | - Robyn D Appleton
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Spectacled Bear Conservation Society Peru, Lambayeque, Peru
| | - Robert Bitariho
- Institute of Tropical Forest Conservation, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda
| | - Santiago Espinosa
- Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, San Luis Potosí, México
- Escuela de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador
| | | | - Kristofer M Helgen
- Australian Museum Research Institute, Australian Museum, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Andy Hubbard
- National Park Service, Sonoran Desert Network, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Cindy M Hurtado
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Patrick A Jansen
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panamá, República de Panamá
| | - Xuelong Jiang
- State Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution, Kunming Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, China
| | - Alex Jones
- Campus Natural Reserves, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | | | | | - Xueyou Li
- State Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution, Kunming Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, China
| | | | - Erik Meyer
- Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks, Three Rivers, California, USA
| | - Anna B Miller
- Department of Environment and Society, Institute of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA
| | - Thomas Murphy
- Department of Anthropology, Edmonds College, Lynwood, Washington, USA
| | - Renzo Piana
- Spectacled Bear Conservation Society Peru, Lambayeque, Peru
| | - Rui-Chang Quan
- Center for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mengla, China
| | - Christopher T Rota
- Division of Forestry and Natural Resources, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA
| | - Francesco Rovero
- Department of Biology, University of Florence, Trento, Italy
- MUSE - Museo delle Scienze, Trento, Italy
| | | | | | - Aisha Uduman
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Joanna Klees van Bommel
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Hilary Young
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA
| | - A Cole Burton
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
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5
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Miller DH, LaLone CA, Villeneuve DL, Ankley GT. Projection of Interspecific Competition (PIC) Matrices: A Conceptual Framework for Inclusion in Population Risk Assessments. ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY 2024; 43:1406-1422. [PMID: 38651999 DOI: 10.1002/etc.5867] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2023] [Revised: 12/10/2023] [Accepted: 03/09/2024] [Indexed: 04/25/2024]
Abstract
Accounting for intraspecific and interspecific competition when assessing the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors is an important uncertainty in ecological risk assessments. We developed novel projection of interspecific competition (PIC) matrices that allow for analysis of population dynamics of two or more species exposed to a given stressor(s) that compete for shared resources within a landscape. We demonstrate the application of PIC matrices to investigate the population dynamics of two hypothetical fish species that compete with one another and have differences in net reproductive rate and intrinsic rate of population increase. Population status predictions were made under scenarios that included exposure to a chemical stressor that reduced fecundity for one or both species. The results of our simulations demonstrated that measures obtained from the life table and Leslie matrix of an organism, including net reproductive rate and intrinsic rate of increase, can result in erroneous conclusions of population status and viability in the absence of a consideration of resource limitation and interspecific competition. This modeling approach can be used in conjunction with field monitoring efforts and/or laboratory testing to link effects due to stressors to possible outcomes within an ecosystem. In addition, PIC matrices could be combined with adverse outcome pathways to allow for ecosystem projection based on taxonomic conservation of molecular targets of chemicals to predict the likelihood of relative cross-species susceptibility. Overall, the present study shows how PIC matrices can integrate effects across the life cycles of multiple species, provide a linkage between endpoints observed in individual and population-level responses, and project outcomes at the community level for multiple generations for multiple species that compete for limited resources. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:1406-1422. Published 2024. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
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Affiliation(s)
- David H Miller
- Great Lakes Toxicology and Ecology Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, Duluth, Minnesota
| | - Carlie A LaLone
- Great Lakes Toxicology and Ecology Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, Duluth, Minnesota
| | - Daniel L Villeneuve
- Great Lakes Toxicology and Ecology Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, Duluth, Minnesota
| | - Gerald T Ankley
- Great Lakes Toxicology and Ecology Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, Duluth, Minnesota
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6
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Altamiranda-Saavedra M, Camaho-Portocarrero R, Machado JO, Jaramillo JDM, Torres-Moreno N, Marín-Ortiz JC, Giraldo-Jaramillo M. Identifying Areas of Invasion Risk and Changes in the Ecological Niche Occupied by the Coffee Leaf Miner Leucoptera coffeella (Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae). NEOTROPICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2024; 53:608-616. [PMID: 38598071 DOI: 10.1007/s13744-024-01148-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/12/2024] [Indexed: 04/11/2024]
Abstract
Insects of economic importance such as Leucoptera coffeella can cause high defoliation in plants and reduce crop yields. We aimed to identify changes in the ecological niche and potential zones of the invasion. Occurrence records were obtained from databases and bibliography. WorldClim V2.0 bioclimatic layers were used. For the modeling of the potential distribution, the kuenm R package was used by executing the Maxent algorithm. The potential distribution models suggested greatest environmental suitability extends from Europe, South Asia, and Central and South Africa, showing the "tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests" as the ecoregion that presents the greatest probability of the presence of L. coffeella. The potential distribution model projected in the invaded area agrees with the known distribution in the region (America), although the results show that it is occupying environmental spaces not present in the area of origin. This species presented a large proportion of the invaded niche that overlaps the native niche and is colonizing new environmental conditions in the invaded area relative to its native distribution (Africa). This information could be used in the planning of coffee crops on the American continent.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Jose Ortiz Machado
- Programa de Medicina, Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia, Santa Marta, Colombia
| | | | - Natalia Torres-Moreno
- Grupo de Investigación Bioforense, Tecnológico de Antioquia, Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia
| | - Juan Carlos Marín-Ortiz
- Grupo de Investigación Fitotecnia Tropical, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Marisol Giraldo-Jaramillo
- Centro Nacional de Investigaciones de Café/Cenicafé, Investigador Científico Área Entomología, Manizales, Colombia
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7
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Hartman JH, Corush J, Larson ER, Tiemann JS, Willink PW, Davis MA. Niche conservatism and spread explain introgression between native and invasive fish. Mol Ecol 2024; 33:e17363. [PMID: 38682794 DOI: 10.1111/mec.17363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2024] [Revised: 04/01/2024] [Accepted: 04/11/2024] [Indexed: 05/01/2024]
Abstract
Hybridisation can be an important driver of evolutionary change, but hybridisation with invasive species can have adverse effects on native biodiversity. While hybridisation has been documented across taxa, there is limited understanding of ecological factors promoting patterns of hybridisation and the spatial distribution of hybrid individuals. We combined the results of ecological niche modelling (ENM) and restriction site-associated DNA sequencing to test theories of niche conservatism and biotic resistance on the success of invasion, admixture, and extent of introgression between native and non-native fishes. We related Maxent predictions of habitat suitability based on the native ranges of invasive Eastern Banded Killifish (Fundulus diaphanus diaphanus Lesueur 1817) and native Western Banded Killifish (Fundulus diaphanus menona Jordan and Copeland 1877) to admixture indices of individual Banded Killifish. We found that Eastern Banded Killifish predominated at sites predicted as suitable from their ENM, consistent with niche conservatism. Admixed individuals were more common as Eastern Banded Killifish habitat suitability declined. We also found that Eastern Banded Killifish were most common at sites closest to the presumed source of this invasion, whereas the proportion of admixed individuals increased with distance from the source of invasion. Lastly, we found little evidence that habitat suitability for Western Banded Killifish provides biotic resistance from either displacement by, or admixture with, invasive Eastern Banded Killifish. Our study demonstrates that ENMs can inform conservation-relevant outcomes between native and invasive taxa while emphasising the importance of protecting isolated Western Banded Killifish populations from invasive conspecifics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jordan H Hartman
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois, USA
- Illinois Natural History Survey, University of Illinois, Champaign, Illinois, USA
| | - Joel Corush
- Illinois Natural History Survey, University of Illinois, Champaign, Illinois, USA
| | - Eric R Larson
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois, USA
| | - Jeremy S Tiemann
- Illinois Natural History Survey, University of Illinois, Champaign, Illinois, USA
| | - Philip W Willink
- Illinois Natural History Survey, University of Illinois, Champaign, Illinois, USA
| | - Mark A Davis
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois, USA
- Illinois Natural History Survey, University of Illinois, Champaign, Illinois, USA
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8
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Malchow AK, Fandos G, Kormann UG, Grüebler MU, Kéry M, Hartig F, Zurell D. Fitting individual-based models of spatial population dynamics to long-term monitoring data. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2024; 34:e2966. [PMID: 38629509 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2966] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2023] [Accepted: 12/20/2023] [Indexed: 06/04/2024]
Abstract
Generating spatial predictions of species distribution is a central task for research and policy. Currently, correlative species distribution models (cSDMs) are among the most widely used tools for this purpose. However, a fundamental assumption of cSDMs, that species distributions are in equilibrium with their environment, is rarely fulfilled in real data and limits the applicability of cSDMs for dynamic projections. Process-based, dynamic SDMs (dSDMs) promise to overcome these limitations as they explicitly represent transient dynamics and enhance spatiotemporal transferability. Software tools for implementing dSDMs are becoming increasingly available, but their parameter estimation can be complex. Here, we test the feasibility of calibrating and validating a dSDM using long-term monitoring data of Swiss red kites (Milvus milvus). This population has shown strong increases in abundance and a progressive range expansion over the last decades, indicating a nonequilibrium situation. We construct an individual-based model using the RangeShiftR modeling platform and use Bayesian inference for model calibration. This allows the integration of heterogeneous data sources, such as parameter estimates from published literature and observational data from monitoring schemes, with a coherent assessment of parameter uncertainty. Our monitoring data encompass counts of breeding pairs at 267 sites across Switzerland over 22 years. We validate our model using a spatial-block cross-validation scheme and assess predictive performance with a rank-correlation coefficient. Our model showed very good predictive accuracy of spatial projections and represented well the observed population dynamics over the last two decades. Results suggest that reproductive success was a key factor driving the observed range expansion. According to our model, the Swiss red kite population fills large parts of its current range but has potential for further increases in density. We demonstrate the practicality of data integration and validation for dSDMs using RangeShiftR. This approach can improve predictive performance compared to cSDMs. The workflow presented here can be adopted for any population for which some prior knowledge on demographic and dispersal parameters as well as spatiotemporal observations of abundance or presence/absence are available. The fitted model provides improved quantitative insights into the ecology of a species, which can greatly aid conservation and management efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Guillermo Fandos
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
- Department of Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolution, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Urs G Kormann
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, Switzerland
| | | | - Marc Kéry
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Florian Hartig
- Theoretical Ecology, Faculty of Biology and Pre-Clinical Medicine, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
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9
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Chevalier M, Broennimann O, Guisan A. Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches. Nat Ecol Evol 2024:10.1038/s41559-024-02426-4. [PMID: 38811837 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-024-02426-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Accepted: 04/29/2024] [Indexed: 05/31/2024]
Abstract
The ability of climatic niche models to predict species extinction risks can be hampered if niches are incompletely quantified. This can occur when niches are estimated considering only currently available climatic conditions, disregarding the fact that climate change can open up portions of the fundamental niche that are currently inaccessible to species. Using a new metric, we estimate the prevalence of potential situations of fundamental niche truncation by measuring whether current ecological niche limits are contiguous to the boundaries of currently available climatic conditions for 24,944 species at the global scale in both terrestrial and marine realms and including animals and plants. We show that 12,172 (~49%) species are showing niche contiguity, particularly those inhabiting tropical ecosystems and the marine realm. Using niche expansion scenarios, we find that 86% of species showing niche contiguity could have a fundamental niche potentially expanding beyond current climatic limits, resulting in lower-yet still alarming-rates of predicted biodiversity loss, particularly within the tropics. Caution is therefore advised when forecasting future distributions of species presenting niche contiguity, particularly towards climatic limits that are predicted to expand in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathieu Chevalier
- IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Benthique Côtière, Plouzané, France.
| | - Olivier Broennimann
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
- Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
| | - Antoine Guisan
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
- Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
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10
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Alsos IG, Boussange V, Rijal DP, Beaulieu M, Brown AG, Herzschuh U, Svenning JC, Pellissier L. Using ancient sedimentary DNA to forecast ecosystem trajectories under climate change. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2024; 379:20230017. [PMID: 38583481 PMCID: PMC10999269 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2023] [Accepted: 10/22/2023] [Indexed: 04/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Ecosystem response to climate change is complex. In order to forecast ecosystem dynamics, we need high-quality data on changes in past species abundance that can inform process-based models. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has revolutionised our ability to document past ecosystems' dynamics. It provides time series of increased taxonomic resolution compared to microfossils (pollen, spores), and can often give species-level information, especially for past vascular plant and mammal abundances. Time series are much richer in information than contemporary spatial distribution information, which have been traditionally used to train models for predicting biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate change. Here, we outline the potential contribution of sedaDNA to forecast ecosystem changes. We showcase how species-level time series may allow quantification of the effect of biotic interactions in ecosystem dynamics, and be used to estimate dispersal rates when a dense network of sites is available. By combining palaeo-time series, process-based models, and inverse modelling, we can recover the biotic and abiotic processes underlying ecosystem dynamics, which are traditionally very challenging to characterise. Dynamic models informed by sedaDNA can further be used to extrapolate beyond current dynamics and provide robust forecasts of ecosystem responses to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Inger Greve Alsos
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Victor Boussange
- Department of Environmental System Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Dilli Prasad Rijal
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Marieke Beaulieu
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Antony Gavin Brown
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Ulrike Herzschuh
- Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegraphenberg A43, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, Potsdam University, 14479 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jens-Christian Svenning
- Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) & Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Loïc Pellissier
- Department of Environmental System Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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11
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Hong J, Lee M, Kim Y, Lee YS, Wee J, Park JJ, Lee WK, Song Y, Cho K. Potential range shift of a long-distance migratory rice pest, Nilaparvata lugens, under climate change. Sci Rep 2024; 14:11531. [PMID: 38773173 PMCID: PMC11109201 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-62266-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2024] [Accepted: 05/15/2024] [Indexed: 05/23/2024] Open
Abstract
The biogeographical range shift of insect pests is primarily governed by temperature. However, the range shift of seasonal long-distance migratory insects may be very different from that of sedentary insects. Nilaparvata lugens (BPH), a serious rice pest, can only overwinter in tropical-to-subtropical regions, and some populations migrate seasonally to temperate zones with the aid of low-level jet stream air currents. This study utilized the CLIMEX model to project the overwintering area under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, both in 2030s and 2080s. The overwintering boundary is predicted to expand poleward and new overwintering areas are predicted in the mid-latitude regions of central-to-eastern China and mid-to-southern Australia. With climate change, the habitable areas remained similar, but suitability decreased substantially, especially in the near-equatorial regions, owing to increasing heat stress. The range shift is similar between RCP2.6-2030s, RCP2.6-2080s, and RCP8.5-2030s, but extreme changes are projected under RCP8.5-2080s with marginal areas increasing from 27.2 to 38.8% and very favorable areas dropping from 27.5 to 3.6% compared to the current climate. These findings indicate that climate change will drive range shifts in BPH and alter regional risks differently. Therefore, international monitoring programs are needed to effectively manage these emerging challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinsol Hong
- Ojeong Resilience Institute, Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea
| | - Minyoung Lee
- Department of Biological Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, 44919, Republic of Korea
| | - Yongeun Kim
- Ojeong Resilience Institute, Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea
| | - Yun-Sik Lee
- Department of Biology Education, Pusan National University, Busan, 46241, Republic of Korea
| | - June Wee
- Ojeong Resilience Institute, Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea
| | - Jung-Joon Park
- Department of Plant Medicine, Institute of Agriculture and Science, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, 52828, Republic of Korea
| | - Woo-Kyun Lee
- Ojeong Resilience Institute, Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea
- Department of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea
| | - Youngil Song
- Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change, Korea Environment Institute, Sejong, 30147, Republic of Korea
| | - Kijong Cho
- Ojeong Resilience Institute, Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea.
- Department of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea.
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12
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Zhang HT, Yang TT, Wang WT. A novel hybrid model for species distribution prediction using neural networks and Grey Wolf Optimizer algorithm. Sci Rep 2024; 14:11505. [PMID: 38769379 PMCID: PMC11106298 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-62285-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2024] [Accepted: 05/15/2024] [Indexed: 05/22/2024] Open
Abstract
Neural networks are frequently employed to model species distribution through backpropagation methods, known as backpropagation neural networks (BPNN). However, the complex structure of BPNN introduces parameter settings challenges, such as the determination of connection weights, which can affect the accuracy of model simulation. In this paper, we integrated the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) algorithm, renowned for its excellent global search capacity and rapid convergence, to enhance the performance of BPNN. Then we obtained a novel hybrid algorithm, the Grey Wolf Optimizer algorithm optimized backpropagation neural networks algorithm (GNNA), designed for predicting species' potential distribution. We also compared the GNNA with four prevalent species distribution models (SDMs), namely the generalized boosting model (GBM), generalized linear model (GLM), maximum entropy (MaxEnt), and random forest (RF). These models were evaluated using three evaluation metrics: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, Cohen's kappa, and the true skill statistic, across 23 varied species. Additionally, we examined the predictive accuracy concerning spatial distribution. The results showed that the predictive performance of GNNA was significantly improved compared to BPNN, was significantly better than that of GLM and GBM, and was even comparable to that of MaxEnt and RF in predicting species distributions with small sample sizes. Furthermore, the GNNA demonstrates exceptional powers in forecasting the potential non-native distribution of invasive plant species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao-Tian Zhang
- School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Northwest Minzu University, Lanzhou, 730030, People's Republic of China
| | - Ting-Ting Yang
- School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Northwest Minzu University, Lanzhou, 730030, People's Republic of China
| | - Wen-Ting Wang
- School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Northwest Minzu University, Lanzhou, 730030, People's Republic of China.
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13
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Bramorska B, Komar E, Maugeri L, Ruczyński I, Żmihorski M. Socio-economic variables improve accuracy and change spatial predictions in species distribution models. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 924:171588. [PMID: 38461982 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171588] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2023] [Revised: 02/19/2024] [Accepted: 03/07/2024] [Indexed: 03/12/2024]
Abstract
In an era marked by increasing anthropogenic pressure, understanding the relations between human activities and wildlife is crucial for understanding ecological patterns, effective conservation, and management strategies. Here, we explore the potential and usefulness of socio-economic variables in species distribution modelling (SDM), focusing on their impact on the occurrence of wild mammals in Poland. Beyond the environmental factors commonly considered in SDM, like land-use, the study tests the importance of socio-economic characteristics of local human societies, such as age, income, working sector, gender, education, and village characteristics for explaining distribution of diverse mammalian groups, including carnivores, ungulates, rodents, soricids, and bats. The study revealed that incorporating socio-economic variables enhances the predictive power for >60 % of species and overall for most groups, with the exception being carnivores. For all the species combined, among the 10 predictors with highest predictive power, 6 belong to socio-economic group, while for specific species groups, socio-economic variables had similar predictive power as environmental variables. Furthermore, spatial predictions of species occurrence underwent changes when socio-economic variables were included in the model, resulting in a substantial mismatch in spatial predictions of species occurrence between environment-only models and models containing socio-economic variables. We conclude that socio-economic data has potential as useful predictors which increase prediction accuracy of wildlife occurrence and recommend its wider usage. Further, to our knowledge this is a first study on such a big scale for terrestrial mammals which evaluates performance based on presence or absence of socio-economic predictors in the model. We recognise the need for a more comprehensive approach in SDMs and that bridging the gap between human socio-economic dynamics and ecological processes may contribute to the understanding of the factors influencing biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beata Bramorska
- Mammal Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Stoczek 1, 17-230 Białowieża, Poland.
| | - Ewa Komar
- Mammal Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Stoczek 1, 17-230 Białowieża, Poland
| | - Luca Maugeri
- Mammal Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Stoczek 1, 17-230 Białowieża, Poland
| | - Ireneusz Ruczyński
- Mammal Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Stoczek 1, 17-230 Białowieża, Poland
| | - Michał Żmihorski
- Mammal Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Stoczek 1, 17-230 Białowieża, Poland
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14
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Chan-Espinoza D, Ruiz-Piña HA, Canché-Pool EB, Reyes-Novelo E. Spatial distribution of Triatoma dimidiata peridomestic colonies modulated by distance between susceptible microhabitat patches. Acta Trop 2024; 253:107169. [PMID: 38432403 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2023] [Revised: 02/19/2024] [Accepted: 02/29/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024]
Abstract
Triatoma dimidiata is a vector of the hemoparasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the causal agent of Chagas disease. It settles reproductive colonies in the peridomicile of the premises. The peridomicile is comprised of a random set of artificial and natural features that overlap and assemble a network of microenvironmental suitable sites (patches) that interact with each other and favor the structure and proliferation of T. dimidiata colonies. The heterogeneity of patch characteristics hinders the understanding and identification of sites susceptible to colonization. In this study, a classification system using a random forest algorithm was used to identify peridomiciles susceptible to colonization to describe the spatial distribution of these sites and their relationship with the colonies of T. dimidiata in ten localities of Yucatan. From 1,000 peridomiciles reviewed, the classification showed that 13.9 % (139) of the patches were highly susceptible (HSP), and 86.1 % (861) were less susceptible (LSP). All localities had at least one HSP. The occupancy by patch type showed that the percentage of total occupancy and by colonies was higher in the HSP, while the occupancy by adult T. dimidiata without evidence of nymphs or exuviae (propagules) was higher in the LSP. A generalized additive model (GAM) revealed that the percentage of occupied patches increases as the abundance of individuals in the localities increases however, the percentage of occupied patches in LSP is lower than occupied in HSP. Distance analyses revealed that colonies and propagules were located significantly closer (approximately 200 m) to a colony in a HSP than any colony in a LSP. The distribution of T. dimidiata in the localities was defined by the distribution of patch type; as the occupancy in these patches increased, a network of peridomestic populations was configured, which may be promoted by a greater abundance of insects inside the localities. These results reveal that the spatial distribution of T. dimidiata individuals and colonies in the peridomicile at the locality scale corresponds to a metapopulation pattern within the localities through a system of patches mediated by distance and level of the vectors' occupancy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Chan-Espinoza
- Centro de Investigaciones Regionales "Dr. Hideyo Noguchi", Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes No. 490 por 59, Col. Centro, Mérida, Yucatán 97000, Mexico
| | - Hugo A Ruiz-Piña
- Centro de Investigaciones Regionales "Dr. Hideyo Noguchi", Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes No. 490 por 59, Col. Centro, Mérida, Yucatán 97000, Mexico
| | - Elsy B Canché-Pool
- Centro de Investigaciones Regionales "Dr. Hideyo Noguchi", Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes No. 490 por 59, Col. Centro, Mérida, Yucatán 97000, Mexico
| | - Enrique Reyes-Novelo
- Centro de Investigaciones Regionales "Dr. Hideyo Noguchi", Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes No. 490 por 59, Col. Centro, Mérida, Yucatán 97000, Mexico.
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15
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Zhang Z, Zhou J, García Molinos J, Mammola S, Bede-Fazekas Á, Feng X, Kitazawa D, Assis J, Qiu T, Lin Q. Incorporating physiological knowledge into correlative species distribution models minimizes bias introduced by the choice of calibration area. MARINE LIFE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2024; 6:349-362. [PMID: 38827135 PMCID: PMC11136901 DOI: 10.1007/s42995-024-00226-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2023] [Accepted: 02/20/2024] [Indexed: 06/04/2024]
Abstract
Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to estimate species' geographic distribution across space and time, but their reliability heavily relies on the availability and quality of occurrence data. Estimations can be biased when occurrences do not fully represent the environmental requirement of a species. We tested to what extent species' physiological knowledge might influence SDM estimations. Focusing on the Japanese sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus within the coastal ocean of East Asia, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of occurrence records. We then explored the importance of incorporating physiological knowledge into SDMs by calibrating two types of correlative SDMs: a naïve model that solely depends on environmental correlates, and a physiologically informed model that further incorporates physiological information as priors. We further tested the models' sensitivity to calibration area choices by fitting them with different buffered areas around known presences. Compared with naïve models, the physiologically informed models successfully captured the negative influence of high temperature on A. japonicus and were less sensitive to the choice of calibration area. The naïve models resulted in more optimistic prediction of the changes of potential distributions under climate change (i.e., larger range expansion and less contraction) than the physiologically informed models. Our findings highlight benefits from incorporating physiological information into correlative SDMs, namely mitigating the uncertainties associated with the choice of calibration area. Given these promising features, we encourage future SDM studies to consider species physiological information where available. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-024-00226-0.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhixin Zhang
- CAS Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Bio-resources and Ecology, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510301 China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Marine Biology, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510301 China
- Marine Biodiversity and Ecological Evolution Research Center, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou, 510301 China
- Global Ocean and Climate Research Center, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou, 510301 China
| | - Jinxin Zhou
- Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8574 Japan
| | | | - Stefano Mammola
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Molecular Ecology Group (MEG), Water Research Institute (IRSA), National Research Council of Italy (CNR), 28922 Verbania Pallanza, Italy
- National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC), Palermo, Italy
| | - Ákos Bede-Fazekas
- Institute of Ecology and Botany, HUN-REN Centre for Ecological Research, Vácrátót, Hungary
- Department of Environmental and Landscape Geography, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Xiao Feng
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA
| | - Daisuke Kitazawa
- Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8574 Japan
| | - Jorge Assis
- Centre of Marine Sciences, University of Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, Faro, Portugal
| | - Tianlong Qiu
- CAS Key Laboratory of Experimental Marine Biology, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071 China
| | - Qiang Lin
- CAS Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Bio-resources and Ecology, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510301 China
- Marine Biodiversity and Ecological Evolution Research Center, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou, 510301 China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049 China
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16
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Williams AK, Peterman WE, Pesapane R. Refining Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) distribution models: a comparison of current methods to an established protocol. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2024:tjae052. [PMID: 38686854 DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjae052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2023] [Revised: 03/11/2024] [Accepted: 04/15/2024] [Indexed: 05/02/2024]
Abstract
Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say) pose an enormous public health risk in eastern North America as the vector responsible for transmitting 7 human pathogens, including those causing the most common vector-borne disease in the United States, Lyme disease. Species distribution modeling is an increasingly popular method for predicting the potential distribution and subsequent risk of blacklegged ticks, however, the development of such models thus far is highly variable and would benefit from the use of standardized protocols. To identify where standardized protocols would most benefit current distribution models, we completed the "Overview, Data, Model, Assessment, and Prediction" (ODMAP) distribution modeling protocol for 21 publications reporting 22 blacklegged tick distribution models. We calculated an average adherence of 73.4% (SD ± 29%). Most prominently, we found that authors could better justify and connect their selection of variables and associated spatial scales to blacklegged tick ecology. In addition, the authors could provide clearer descriptions of model development, including checks for multicollinearity, spatial autocorrelation, and plausibility. Finally, authors could improve their reporting of variable effects to avoid undermining the models' utility in informing species-environment relationships. To enhance future model rigor and reproducibility, we recommend utilizing several resources including the ODMAP protocol, and suggest that journals make protocol compliance a publication prerequisite.
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Affiliation(s)
- Allison K Williams
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, College of Food, Agriculture, and Environmental Science, The Ohio State University, 210 Kottman Hall, 2021 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
| | - William E Peterman
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, College of Food, Agriculture, and Environmental Science, The Ohio State University, 210 Kottman Hall, 2021 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
| | - Risa Pesapane
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, College of Food, Agriculture, and Environmental Science, The Ohio State University, 210 Kottman Hall, 2021 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
- Department of Veterinary Preventive Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, The Ohio State University, 1920 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
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17
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Liu B, Liu Z, Li C, Yu H, Wang H. Geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) in China's coastal regions under climate change. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 920:171061. [PMID: 38373453 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2023] [Revised: 01/25/2024] [Accepted: 02/16/2024] [Indexed: 02/21/2024]
Abstract
Global climate change drives species redistribution, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem heterogeneity. The Kumamoto oyster, Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928), one of the most promising aquaculture species because of its delayed reproductive timing, was once prevalent in southern China. In this study, an ensemble species distribution model was employed to analyze the distribution range shift and ecological niche dynamics of C. sikamea along China's coastline under the current and future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6-8.5 covering 2050 s and 2100 s). The model results indicated that the current habitat distribution for C. sikamea consists of a continuous stretch extending from the coastlines of Hainan Province to the northern shores of Jiangsu Province. By the 2050 s, the distribution range will stabilize at its southern end along the coast of Hainan Province, while expanding northward to cover the coastal areas of Shandong Province, showing a more dramatic trend of contraction in the south and invasion in the north by the 2100 s. In RCP8.5, the southern end retracts to the coasts of Guangdong, whereas the northern end covers all of China's coastal areas north of 34°N. C. sikamea can maintain relatively stable ecological niche characteristics, while it may occupy different ecological niche spaces under future climate conditions. Significant niche expansion will occur in lower temperature. We concluded C. sikamea habitats are susceptible to climate change. The rapid northward expansion of C. sikamea may open new possibilities for oyster farming in China, but it will also have important consequences for the ecological balance and biodiversity of receiving areas. It's imperative that we closely examine and strategize to address these repercussions for a win-win situation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bingxian Liu
- Department of Marine Organism Taxonomy & Phylogeny, Institute of Oceanology, Chine Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China
| | - Zhenqiang Liu
- Department of Marine Organism Taxonomy & Phylogeny, Institute of Oceanology, Chine Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, PR China; School of Marine Science and Engineering, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao 266237, PR China
| | - Cui Li
- Department of Marine Organism Taxonomy & Phylogeny, Institute of Oceanology, Chine Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China
| | - Haolin Yu
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, PR China
| | - Haiyan Wang
- Department of Marine Organism Taxonomy & Phylogeny, Institute of Oceanology, Chine Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China.
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18
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Gerstner BE, Blair ME, Bills P, Cruz-Rodriguez CA, Zarnetske PL. The influence of scale-dependent geodiversity on species distribution models in a biodiversity hotspot. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2024; 382:20230057. [PMID: 38342213 PMCID: PMC10859231 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2023.0057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/08/2023] [Indexed: 02/13/2024]
Abstract
Improving models of species' distributions is essential for conservation, especially in light of global change. Species distribution models (SDMs) often rely on mean environmental conditions, yet species distributions are also a function of environmental heterogeneity and filtering acting at multiple spatial scales. Geodiversity, which we define as the variation of abiotic features and processes of Earth's entire geosphere (inclusive of climate), has potential to improve SDMs and conservation assessments, as they capture multiple abiotic dimensions of species niches, however they have not been sufficiently tested in SDMs. We tested a range of geodiversity variables computed at varying scales using climate and elevation data. We compared predictive performance of MaxEnt SDMs generated using CHELSA bioclimatic variables to those also including geodiversity variables for 31 mammalian species in Colombia. Results show the spatial grain of geodiversity variables affects SDM performance. Some variables consistently exhibited an increasing or decreasing trend in variable importance with spatial grain, showing slight scale-dependence and indicating that some geodiversity variables are more relevant at particular scales for some species. Incorporating geodiversity variables into SDMs, and doing so at the appropriate spatial scales, enhances the ability to model species-environment relationships, thereby contributing to the conservation and management of biodiversity. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Geodiversity for science and society'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beth E. Gerstner
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife,
- Ecology, Evolution and Behavior Program,
| | - Mary E. Blair
- Center for Biodiversity and Conservation, American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, USA
| | - Patrick Bills
- Institute for Cyber-Enabled Research (ICER),
- Institute for Biodiversity, Ecology, Evolution, and Macrosystems (IBEEM), and
| | - Cristian A. Cruz-Rodriguez
- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Av. Paseo de Bolívar No. 16-20, Bogotá, DC, Colombia
- Département de Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal. Montréal (QC), Canada
| | - Phoebe L. Zarnetske
- Ecology, Evolution and Behavior Program,
- Department of Integrative Biology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
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19
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Amarasekare P. Temperature-dependent dispersal and ectotherm species' distributions in a warming world. J Anim Ecol 2024; 93:428-446. [PMID: 38406823 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.14054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 02/27/2024]
Abstract
Dispersal is a crucial component of species' responses to climate warming. Warming-induced changes in species' distributions are the outcome of how temperature affects dispersal at the individual level. Yet, there is little or no theory that considers the temperature dependence of dispersal when investigating the impacts of warming on species' distributions. Here I take a first step towards filling this key gap in our knowledge. I focus on ectotherms, species whose body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, not least because they constitute the majority of biodiversity on the planet. I develop a mathematical model of spatial population dynamics that explicitly incorporates mechanistic descriptions of ectotherm life history trait responses to temperature. A novel feature of this framework is the explicit temperature dependence of all phases of dispersal: emigration, transfer and settlement. I report three key findings. First, dispersal, regardless of whether it is random or temperature-dependent, allows both tropical and temperate ectotherms to track warming-induced changes in their thermal environments and to expand their distributions beyond the lower and upper thermal limits of their respective climate envelopes. In the absence of dispersal mortality, warming does not alter these new distributional limits. Second, an analysis based solely on trait response data predicts that tropical ectotherms should be able to expand their distributions polewards to a greater degree than temperate ectotherms. Analysis of the dynamical model confirms this prediction. Tropical ectotherms have an advantage when moving to cooler climates because they experience lower within-patch and dispersal mortality, and their higher thermal optima and maximal birth rates allow them to take advantage of the warmer parts of the year. Previous theory has shown that tropical ectotherms are more successful in invading and adapting the temperate climates than vice versa. This study provides the key missing piece, by showing how temperature-dependent dispersal could facilitate both invasion and adaptation. Third, dispersal mortality does not affect the poleward expansion of ectotherm distributions. But, it prevents both tropical and temperate ectotherms from maintaining sink populations in localities that are too warm to be viable in the absence of dispersal. Dispersal mortality also affects species' abundance patterns, causing a larger decline in abundance throughout the range when species disperse randomly rather than in response to thermal habitat suitability. In this way, dispersal mortality can facilitate the evolution of dispersal modes that maximize fitness in warmer thermal environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Priyanga Amarasekare
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
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Yu B, Dai W, Li S, Wu Z, Wang J. A new threshold selection method for species distribution models with presence-only data: Extracting the mutation point of the P/E curve by threshold regression. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11208. [PMID: 38571786 PMCID: PMC10985382 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2024] [Revised: 03/12/2024] [Accepted: 03/18/2024] [Indexed: 04/05/2024] Open
Abstract
Selecting thresholds to convert continuous predictions of species distribution models proves critical for many real-world applications and model assessments. Prevalent threshold selection methods for presence-only data require unproven pseudo-absence data or subjective researchers' decisions. This study proposes a new method, Boyce-Threshold Quantile Regression (BTQR), to determine thresholds objectively without pseudo-absence data. We summarize that the mutation point is a typical shape feature of the predicted-to-expected (P/E) curve after reviewing relevant articles. Analysis based on source-sink theory suggests that this mutation point may represent a transition in habitat types and serve as an appropriate threshold. Threshold regression is introduced to accurately locate the mutation point. To validate the effectiveness of BTQR, we used four virtual species of varying prevalence and a real species with reliable distribution data. Six different species distribution models were employed to generate continuous suitability predictions. BTQR and nine other traditional methods transformed these continuous outputs into binary results. Comparative experiments show that BTQR has advantages in terms of accuracy, applicability, and consistency over the existing methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Boyang Yu
- Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean ScienceNanjing UniversityNanjingChina
| | - Wenyu Dai
- Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean ScienceNanjing UniversityNanjingChina
| | - Siqing Li
- Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean ScienceNanjing UniversityNanjingChina
| | - Zhaoning Wu
- Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean ScienceNanjing UniversityNanjingChina
| | - Jiechen Wang
- Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean ScienceNanjing UniversityNanjingChina
- Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and ApplicationNanjingChina
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Alon M, Waitz Y, Finkel OM, Sheffer E. The native distribution of a common legume shrub is limited by the range of its nitrogen-fixing mutualist. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2024; 242:77-92. [PMID: 38339826 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2023] [Accepted: 01/20/2024] [Indexed: 02/12/2024]
Abstract
Plant-microbe mutualisms, such as the legume-rhizobium symbiosis, are influenced by the geographical distributions of both partners. However, limitations on the native range of legumes, resulting from the absence of a compatible mutualist, have rarely been explored. We used a combination of a large-scale field survey and controlled experiments to determine the realized niche of Calicotome villosa, an abundant and widespread legume shrub. Soil type was a major factor affecting the distribution and abundance of C. villosa. In addition, we found a large region within its range in which neither C. villosa nor Bradyrhizobium, the bacterial genus that associates with it, were present. Seedlings grown in soil from this region failed to nodulate and were deficient in nitrogen. Inoculation of this soil with Bradyrhizobium isolated from root nodules of C. villosa resulted in the formation of nodules and higher growth rate, leaf N and shoot biomass compared with un-inoculated plants. We present evidence for the exclusion of a legume from parts of its native range by the absence of a compatible mutualist. This result highlights the importance of the co-distribution of both the host plant and its mutualist when attempting to understand present and future geographical distributions of legumes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moshe Alon
- Department of Plant & Environmental Sciences, The Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus - Givat Ram, Jerusalem, 9190401, Israel
- Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, 7610001, Israel
| | - Yoni Waitz
- Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, 7610001, Israel
| | - Omri M Finkel
- Department of Plant & Environmental Sciences, The Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus - Givat Ram, Jerusalem, 9190401, Israel
| | - Efrat Sheffer
- Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, 7610001, Israel
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Palei HS, Jangid AK, Hanumant DD, Palei NC, Mishra AK. On the elephant trails: habitat suitability and connectivity for Asian elephants in eastern Indian landscape. PeerJ 2024; 12:e16746. [PMID: 38562998 PMCID: PMC10984178 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.16746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2023] [Accepted: 12/11/2023] [Indexed: 04/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Identifying suitable habitats and conserving corridors are crucial to the long-term conservation of large and conflict-prone animals. Being a flagship species, survival of Asian elephants is threatened by human-induced mortality and habitat modification. We aimed to assess the habitat suitability and connectivity of the Asian elephant Elephas maximus Linnaeus, 1758 habitat in the state of Odisha in eastern India. We followed the ensemble of spatial prediction models using species presence data and five environmental variables. We used least-cost path and circuit theory approaches to identify the spatial connectivity between core habitats for Asian elephants. The results revealed that normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; variable importance 42%) and terrain ruggedness (19%) are the most influential variables for predicting habitat suitability of species within the study area. Our habitat suitability map estimated 14.6% of Odisha's geographical area (c. 22,442 km2) as highly suitable and 13.3% (c. 20,464 km2) as moderate highly suitable. We identified 58 potential linkages to maintain the habitat connectivity across study area. Furthermore, we identified pinch points, bottlenecks, and high centrality links between core habitats. Our study offers management implications for long-term landscape conservation for Asian elephants in Odisha and highlights priority zones that can help maintain spatial links between elephant habitats.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Ashish Kumar Jangid
- Bisalpur, Pali, Rajasthan, India
- Current affiliation: Wildlife Institute of India, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India
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Huettmann F, Andrews P, Steiner M, Das AK, Philip J, Mi C, Bryans N, Barker B. A super SDM (species distribution model) 'in the cloud' for better habitat-association inference with a 'big data' application of the Great Gray Owl for Alaska. Sci Rep 2024; 14:7213. [PMID: 38531933 PMCID: PMC10965900 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-57588-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2023] [Accepted: 03/19/2024] [Indexed: 03/28/2024] Open
Abstract
The currently available distribution and range maps for the Great Grey Owl (GGOW; Strix nebulosa) are ambiguous, contradictory, imprecise, outdated, often hand-drawn and thus not quantified, not based on data or scientific. In this study, we present a proof of concept with a biological application for technical and biological workflow progress on latest global open access 'Big Data' sharing, Open-source methods of R and geographic information systems (OGIS and QGIS) assessed with six recent multi-evidence citizen-science sightings of the GGOW. This proposed workflow can be applied for quantified inference for any species-habitat model such as typically applied with species distribution models (SDMs). Using Random Forest-an ensemble-type model of Machine Learning following Leo Breiman's approach of inference from predictions-we present a Super SDM for GGOWs in Alaska running on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI). These Super SDMs were based on best publicly available data (410 occurrences + 1% new assessment sightings) and over 100 environmental GIS habitat predictors ('Big Data'). The compiled global open access data and the associated workflow overcome for the first time the limitations of traditionally used PC and laptops. It breaks new ground and has real-world implications for conservation and land management for GGOW, for Alaska, and for other species worldwide as a 'new' baseline. As this research field remains dynamic, Super SDMs can have limits, are not the ultimate and final statement on species-habitat associations yet, but they summarize all publicly available data and information on a topic in a quantified and testable fashion allowing fine-tuning and improvements as needed. At minimum, they allow for low-cost rapid assessment and a great leap forward to be more ecological and inclusive of all information at-hand. Using GGOWs, here we aim to correct the perception of this species towards a more inclusive, holistic, and scientifically correct assessment of this urban-adapted owl in the Anthropocene, rather than a mysterious wilderness-inhabiting species (aka 'Phantom of the North'). Such a Super SDM was never created for any bird species before and opens new perspectives for impact assessment policy and global sustainability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Falk Huettmann
- -EWHALE Lab-, Biology and Wildlife Department, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA.
| | - Phillip Andrews
- -EWHALE Lab-, Biology and Wildlife Department, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA
| | - Moriz Steiner
- -EWHALE Lab-, Biology and Wildlife Department, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA
| | - Arghya Kusum Das
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA
| | - Jacques Philip
- Indigenous Health, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA
| | - Chunrong Mi
- National Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | | | - Bryan Barker
- Oracle for Research, 2300 Oracle Wy, Austin, TX, 78741, USA
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Shi J, Meng L, Xia S, Liu S, Zhou L. Habitat Suitability and Determinants for Anatidae in Multi-Watershed Composite Wetlands in Anhui, China. Animals (Basel) 2024; 14:1010. [PMID: 38612249 PMCID: PMC11010902 DOI: 10.3390/ani14071010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2024] [Revised: 03/13/2024] [Accepted: 03/19/2024] [Indexed: 04/14/2024] Open
Abstract
Habitat suitability analysis is essential in habitat and species conservation. Anatidae are known for their migratory behaviour, high population density, and wide distribution range. Understanding their habitat utilzation and influencing factors is crucial in targeted conservation and management. In this study, we collected Anatidae diversity data, including the number of species, through field surveys from October 2021 to March 2022 and thirty habitat variables through an online database in Anhui Province, China. By using MaxEnt, we simulated the habitat suitability of twenty-one Anatidae species, revealing potential distribution sites in Anhui Province. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were employed to identify factors affecting the distribution of geese and ducks. The results showed that high-suitability habitats were predominantly located in the large lakes of the Yangtze River floodplain. The GLMM analysis showed significant correlations between Anatidae richness and altitude, distribution of farmland, and human footprint. In addition, ducks were more sensitive to the human interference factor than geese. In summary, the lakes in the Yangtze River floodplain emerged as the most important Anatidae habitats in Anhui Province due to their abundant wetland resources, flat terrain, and high distribution of farmlands. These findings provide a scientific basis for the development of relevant conservation strategies and measures, aiding in wildlife epidemic monitoring, prevention, and control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiye Shi
- School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China; (J.S.); (L.M.); (S.X.)
- Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecosystem Protection and Restoration, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China
- Anhui Shengjin Lake Wetland Ecology National Long-Term Scientific Research Base, Dongzhi 247230, China
| | - Lei Meng
- School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China; (J.S.); (L.M.); (S.X.)
- Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecosystem Protection and Restoration, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China
- Anhui Shengjin Lake Wetland Ecology National Long-Term Scientific Research Base, Dongzhi 247230, China
| | - Shanshan Xia
- School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China; (J.S.); (L.M.); (S.X.)
- Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecosystem Protection and Restoration, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China
- Anhui Shengjin Lake Wetland Ecology National Long-Term Scientific Research Base, Dongzhi 247230, China
| | - Song Liu
- Anhui General Station of Wildlife Monitoring of Epidemic Sources and Disease, Hefei 230088, China;
| | - Lizhi Zhou
- School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China; (J.S.); (L.M.); (S.X.)
- Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecosystem Protection and Restoration, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China
- Anhui Shengjin Lake Wetland Ecology National Long-Term Scientific Research Base, Dongzhi 247230, China
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Muller MM, Santana DJ, Costa HC, Ceron K. Geographic patterns of distribution and ecological niche of the snake-necked turtle genus Hydromedusa. PeerJ 2024; 12:e16712. [PMID: 38560463 PMCID: PMC10979749 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.16712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2023] [Accepted: 12/01/2023] [Indexed: 04/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Biotic and abiotic factors play a crucial role in determining the distribution of species. These factors dictate the conditions that must be met for a species to thrive in a particular area. Sister species that present some degree of niche overlap can shed light on how they are distributed and coexist in their environment. This study aims to investigate the geographical distribution and ecological niche of the sister species of snake-necked turtles Hydromedusa maximiliani and H. tectifera. By analyzing their niche overlap, we aim to obtain a better understanding of how these two species coexist and which variables are determining their occurences. We applied species distribution modeling and compared the niches using the niche equivalence and similarity tests. Our findings show that the distribution of H. maximiliani is most influenced by temperature seasonality and isothermality, while H. tectifera is most affected by the temperature seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter and mean diurnal range. In addition, our results suggest that the niche expressed by H. maximiliani retained ecological characteristics that can accurately predict the H. tectifera distribution, but the inverse is not true. In this sense, differences are not solely due to the geographic availability of environmental conditions but can reflect niche restrictions, such as competition.
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Affiliation(s)
- Márcia M.P. Muller
- Instituto de Biociências, Letras e Ciências Exatas, Universidade Estadual Paulista, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Diego J. Santana
- Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
| | - Henrique C. Costa
- Departamento de Zoologia, Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Karoline Ceron
- Departamento de Biologia Animal, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil
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Vásquez-Aguilar AA, Hernández-Rodríguez D, Martínez-Mota R. Predicting future climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra): an endangered arboreal primate. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2024; 196:392. [PMID: 38520558 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-024-12543-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2023] [Accepted: 03/16/2024] [Indexed: 03/25/2024]
Abstract
Climate change is one of the main factors affecting biodiversity worldwide at an alarming rate. In addition to increases in global extreme weather events, melting of polar ice caps, and subsequent sea level rise, climate change might shift the geographic distribution of species. In recent years, interest in understanding the effects of climate change on species distribution has increased, including species which depend greatly on forest cover for survival, such as strictly arboreal primates. Here, we generate a series of species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate future projections under different climate change scenarios on the distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra), an endemic endangered primate species. Using SDMs, we assessed current and future projections of their potential distribution for three Social Economic Paths (SSPs) for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. Specifically, we found that precipitation seasonality (BIO15, 30.8%), isothermality (BIO3, 25.4%), and mean diurnal range (BIO2, 19.7.%) are the main factors affecting A. pigra distribution. The future climate change models suggested a decrease in the potential distribution of A. pigra by projected scenarios (from - 1.23 to - 12.66%). The highly suitable area was the most affected above all in the more pessimist scenario most likely related to habitat fragmentation. Our study provides new insights into the potential future distribution and suitable habitats of Alouatta pigra. Such information could be used by local communities, governments, and non-governmental organizations for conservation planning of this primate species.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Rodolfo Martínez-Mota
- Centro de Investigaciones Tropicales (CITRO), Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
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Chang Y, Zhao C, Liu X, He L. Mapping multi-seasonal habitats of giant pandas to identify seasonal shifts. iScience 2024; 27:109115. [PMID: 38384834 PMCID: PMC10879713 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2023] [Revised: 10/30/2023] [Accepted: 01/31/2024] [Indexed: 02/23/2024] Open
Abstract
As a flagship species of biodiversity conservation globally, the giant panda has seasonal migration to cope with seasonal changes in available resources. Here, we have mapped the spatial distribution of multi-seasonal habitats of the giant panda across the Baishuijiang reserve in China. Results show that the spatial patterns are different in different seasons, generally, large patches are observed in the western part, while staggered clusters occur in the middle and eastern parts. That is, suitable habitats for giant pandas are mostly distributed in the west part. More than 75% of the predicted suitable habitats are within the core zone of the reserve year-round, indicating the core zone essentially meet giant panda's ecological needs, although this range could potentially be expanded. This study provides valuable insights into the spatiotemporal migration patterns of endangered species and helps to guide conservation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yapeng Chang
- State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-ecosystems, Key Laboratory of Grassland Livestock Industry Innovation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Engineering Research Center of Grassland Industry, Ministry of Education, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China
| | - Chuanyan Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-ecosystems, Key Laboratory of Grassland Livestock Industry Innovation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Engineering Research Center of Grassland Industry, Ministry of Education, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China
| | - Xingming Liu
- Baishuijiang National Nature Reserve, Wenxian, Gansu 746400, China
| | - Liwen He
- Baishuijiang National Nature Reserve, Wenxian, Gansu 746400, China
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Zhang FG, Zhang S, Wu K, Zhao R, Zhao G, Wang Y. Potential habitat areas and priority protected areas of Tilia amurensis Rupr in China under the context of climate change. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2024; 15:1365264. [PMID: 38559765 PMCID: PMC10978769 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2024.1365264] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2024] [Accepted: 02/07/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024]
Abstract
Introduction Tilia amurensis Rupr (T. amurensis) is one endangered and national class II key protected wild plant in China. It has ornamental, material, economic, edible and medicinal values. At present, the resources of T. amurensis are decreasing, and the prediction of the distribution of its potential habitat in China can provide a theoretical basis for the cultivation and rational management of this species. Methods In this study, the R language was used to evaluate 358 distribution records and 38 environment variables. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution areas of T. amurensis under the current and future climate scenarios. The dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. amurensis were analyzed and the Marxan model was used to plan the priority protected areas of this species. Results The results showed that Bio18, Slope, Elev, Bio1, Bio9 and Bio2 were the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. amurensis. Under the future climatic scenarios, the potential suitable areas for T. amurensis will mainly distribute in the Northeast China, the total suitable area will reduce compared with the current climate scenarios, and the general trend of the centroid of suitable habitat will be towards higher latitudes. The SPF value of the best plan obtained from the priority conservation area planning was 1.1, the BLM value was 127,616, and the priority conservation area was about 57.61×104 km2. The results suggested that climate, soil and topographic factors jointly affected the potential geographical distribution of T. amurensis, and climate and topographic factors had greater influence than soil factors. Discussion The total suitable area of T. amurensis in China under different climate scenarios in the future will decrease, so more effective protection should be actively adopted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fen-Guo Zhang
- College of Life Science, Shanxi Engineering Research Center of Microbial Application Technologies, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
| | - Sanqing Zhang
- College of Life Science, Shanxi Engineering Research Center of Microbial Application Technologies, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
| | - Kefan Wu
- College of Life Science, Shanxi Engineering Research Center of Microbial Application Technologies, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
| | - Ruxia Zhao
- College of Life Science, Shanxi Engineering Research Center of Microbial Application Technologies, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
| | - Guanghua Zhao
- Administrative Office, Shanwei Middle School, Shanwei, China
| | - Yongji Wang
- College of Life Science, Shanxi Engineering Research Center of Microbial Application Technologies, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
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Alanís-Méndez JL, Soto V, Limón-Salvador F. Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Prosthechea mariae (Orchidaceae) and within Protected Areas in Mexico. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2024; 13:839. [PMID: 38592902 PMCID: PMC10974806 DOI: 10.3390/plants13060839] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2023] [Revised: 12/07/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 04/11/2024]
Abstract
The impact of climate change on the distribution of native species in the Neotropics remains uncertain for most species. Prosthechea mariae is an endemic epiphytic orchid in Mexico, categorized as threatened. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of climate change on the natural distribution of P. mariae and the capacity of protected areas (PAs) to safeguard optimal environmental conditions for the species in the future. Historical records were obtained from herbaria collections and through field surveys. We utilized climate variables from WorldClim for the baseline scenario and for the 2050 period, using the general circulation models CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 (RCP 4.5). Three sets of climate data were created for the distribution models, and multiple models were evaluated using the kuenm package. We found that the species is restricted to the eastern region of the country. The projections of future scenarios predict not only a substantial reduction in habitat but also an increase in habitat fragmentation. Ten PAs were found within the current distribution area of the species; in the future, the species could lose between 36% and 48% of its available habitat within these PAs. The results allowed for the identification of locations where climate change will have the most severe effects, and proposals for long-term conservation are addressed.
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Affiliation(s)
- José Luis Alanís-Méndez
- Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias, Universidad Veracruzana, Región Poza Rica-Tuxpan, Tuxpan 92870, Veracruz, Mexico;
| | - Víctor Soto
- Centro de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa 91090, Veracruz, Mexico;
| | - Francisco Limón-Salvador
- Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias, Universidad Veracruzana, Región Poza Rica-Tuxpan, Tuxpan 92870, Veracruz, Mexico;
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Zhuang H, Shao F, Zhang C, Xia W, Wang S, Qu F, Wang Z, Lu Z, Zhao L, Zhang Z. Spatial-temporal shifting patterns and in situ conservation of spotted seal (Phoca largha) populations in the Yellow Sea ecoregion. Integr Zool 2024; 19:307-318. [PMID: 37231996 DOI: 10.1111/1749-4877.12731] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the habitat shifting pattern is a prerequisite for implementing in situ conservation of migratory species. Spotted seals (Phoca largha) inhabiting the Yellow Sea ecoregion (YSE) comprise a small population with independent genes and represent a charismatic flagship species in this region. However, this population has declined by 80% since the 1940s, and increased support from the countries around the YSE is urgently needed to address the potential local extinction risk. A time-series niche model and life-history weighted systematic conservation planning were designed on the basis of a satellite beacon tracking survey (2010-2020) of the YSE population. The results showed clustering and spreading shifting patterns during the breeding and migratory seasons, respectively. The closed-loop migration route formed in the YSE indicated that this population might be geographically isolated from populations in other breeding areas around the world. The conservation priority area (CPA), with an area of 19 632 km2 (3.58% of the total YSE area), was the most effective response to the potential in situ risk. However, nearly 80% of the CPA was exposed outside the existing marine protected areas (MPAs). Future establishment of MPAs in China should strategically consider the conservation gap identified herein, and it is recommended for Korea's closed fishing season to be spatially set in the western Korean Peninsula from May to August. This study also exemplified that the lack of temporal information would lead to the dislocation of niche modeling for migratory species represented by spotted seals. Attention should be paid to protecting small and migratory populations in marine biodiversity conservation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hongfei Zhuang
- First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao, China
| | - Fei Shao
- Department of Natural Resources of Shandong Province, Shandong Forestry Protection and Development Service Center, Jinan, China
| | - Chao Zhang
- National Park (Protected Areas) Development Center, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Wancai Xia
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong, China
| | - Shouqiang Wang
- First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao, China
| | - Fangyuan Qu
- First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao, China
| | - Zongling Wang
- First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao, China
| | - Zhichuang Lu
- Liaoning Ocean and Fisheries Science Research Institute, Dalian, China
| | - Linlin Zhao
- First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao, China
| | - Zhaohui Zhang
- First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao, China
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Cupe-Flores B, Mendes M, Phillips I, Panigrahi B, Liu X, Liber K. Effects of diluted effluent on aquatic macroinvertebrate communities at the McClean Lake uranium operation in northern Saskatchewan. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 244:117951. [PMID: 38135097 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.117951] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2023] [Revised: 12/09/2023] [Accepted: 12/13/2023] [Indexed: 12/24/2023]
Abstract
Diluted treated effluent from the McClean Lake uranium mill in northern Saskatchewan is released into Vulture Lake, which flows into the east basin of McClean Lake; this input could potentially cause a variety of disturbances to the aquatic systems. This study aimed to determine the potential effects of diluted effluent exposure (metals and major ions) on benthic macroinvertebrates in Vulture Lake and McClean Lake. Two monitoring locations located in Vulture Lake and eight in McClean Lake were used for collection water, sediment, and benthic macroinvertebrates. Complementary surface water bioassays were performed with larvae of the midge Chironomus dilutus using lake water from selected sites. Results indicated that total macroinvertebrate abundance and Margalef index (MI) did not follow the diluted effluent pattern. In addition, while the MI from artificial substrate samplers showed higher values in Vulture Lake and lower values at McClean Lake sites 4 and 5 (closer to effluent diffuser), the values recorded for sediment grab samples registered lower indices in Vulture Lake and higher values for sites 4 and 5. The final model from a Generalized Additive Modelling (GAM) approach suggested that electrical conductivity (EC), selenium (Se), and chloride (Cl) in water, and total organic carbon (TOC) and cadmium (Cd) in sediment are key variables that collectively may have influenced macroinvertebrate community composition at the study sites. Finally, across all test endpoints in the bioassays, exposure to lake water from Vulture Lake and McClean Lake had no statistically significant effects on C. dilutus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beatriz Cupe-Flores
- Toxicology Centre, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
| | - Maira Mendes
- Toxicology Centre, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
| | - Iain Phillips
- Water Quality and Habitat Assessment Services, Water Security Agency, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
| | - Banamali Panigrahi
- Toxicology Centre, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
| | - Xia Liu
- Toxicology Centre, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
| | - Karsten Liber
- Toxicology Centre, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada; School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
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Ortega MA, Cayuela L, Griffith DM, Camacho A, Coronado IM, del Castillo RF, Figueroa-Rangel BL, Fonseca W, Garibaldi C, Kelly DL, Letcher SG, Meave JA, Merino-Martín L, Meza VH, Ochoa-Gaona S, Olvera-Vargas M, Ramírez-Marcial N, Tun-Dzul FJ, Valdez-Hernández M, Velázquez E, White DA, Williams-Linera G, Zahawi RA, Muñoz J. Climate change increases threat to plant diversity in tropical forests of Central America and southern Mexico. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0297840. [PMID: 38422027 PMCID: PMC10903834 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0297840] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2023] [Accepted: 01/12/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061-2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region's (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species' vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58-67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species' relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel A. Ortega
- Instituto Mixto de Investigación en Biodiversidad (IMIB-CSIC), Mieres, Spain
- Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo, Madrid, Spain
| | - Luis Cayuela
- Departamento de Biología y Geología, Física y Química Inorgánica, ESCET, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Móstoles, Spain
| | - Daniel M. Griffith
- Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias, EcoSs Lab, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, Loja, Ecuador
| | | | | | | | - Blanca L. Figueroa-Rangel
- Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Centro Universitario de la Costa Sur, Universidad de Guadalajara, Autlán de Navarro, Jalisco, Mexico
| | - William Fonseca
- Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Costa Rica, Santa Lucía, Barva, Heredia, Costa Rica
| | - Cristina Garibaldi
- Departmento de Botánica, Universidad de Panamá, Campus Universitario Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá, República de Panamá
| | - Daniel L. Kelly
- Department of Botany, Trinity College, University of Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Susan G. Letcher
- College of the Atlantic, Bar Harbor, Maine, United States of America
| | - Jorge A. Meave
- Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
| | - Luis Merino-Martín
- Departamento de Biología y Geología, Física y Química Inorgánica, ESCET, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Móstoles, Spain
| | - Víctor H. Meza
- Instituto de Investigación y Servicios Forestales, Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica, Campus Omar Dengo, Heredia, Costa Rica
| | | | - Miguel Olvera-Vargas
- Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Centro Universitario de la Costa Sur, Universidad de Guadalajara, Autlán de Navarro, Jalisco, Mexico
| | | | - Fernando J. Tun-Dzul
- Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán, Chuburna de Hidalgo, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico
| | - Mirna Valdez-Hernández
- Herbario, Departamento Conservación de la Biodiversidad, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Chetumal, Mexico
| | - Eduardo Velázquez
- Departamento de Producción Vegetal y Recursos Forestales, Instituto Universitario de Gestión Forestal Sostenible, Universidad de Valladolid (Campus de Palencia), Palencia, Spain
| | - David A. White
- Emeritus Faculty, Program in the Environment, Loyola University, New Orleans, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America
| | | | | | - Jesús Muñoz
- Real Jardín Botánico (RJB-CSIC), Madrid, Spain
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Wei Q, Xu Y, Ruan A. Spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton community succession and characteristics of realized niches in Lake Taihu, China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 243:117896. [PMID: 38081348 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.117896] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2023] [Revised: 12/05/2023] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the dynamics and succession of phytoplankton in large lakes can help inform future lake management. The study analyzed phytoplankton community variations in Lake Taihu over a 21-year period, focusing on realized niches and their impact on succession. The study developed a niche periodic table with 32 niches, revealing responses to environmental factors and the optimal number of niches. Results showed that the phytoplankton in Lake Taihu showed significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity, with biomass decreasing as one moved from the northwest to the southeast and expanding towards central lake area, and towards autumn and winter. Different phytoplankton groups in Lake Taihu occupied realized niches shaped by temperature, nitrate, and phosphate. To predict the response of eutrophic freshwater lake ecosystems to human activities and climate change, it is critical to interpret the law of phytoplankton bloom and niche succession.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qi Wei
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China
| | - Yaofei Xu
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China
| | - Aidong Ruan
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China.
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Lin S, Yao D, Jiang H, Qin J, Feng Z. Predicting current and future potential distributions of the greater bandicoot rat (Bandicota indica) under climate change conditions. PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2024; 80:734-743. [PMID: 37779103 DOI: 10.1002/ps.7804] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2023] [Revised: 09/12/2023] [Accepted: 09/26/2023] [Indexed: 10/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rodent infestation is a global problem. Rodents cause huge harm to agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry around the world and spread various zoonoses. In this study, we simulated the potentially suitable habitats of Bandicota indica and predicted the impact of future climate change on its distribution under different socio-economic pathway scenarios of CMIP6 using a parameter-optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. RESULTS The average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value (0.958 ± 0.006) after ten repetitions proved the high accuracy of the MaxEnt model. Model results show that the annual mean temperature (≥ 15.93 °C), isothermality (28.52-80.49%), annual precipitation (780.13-3863.13 mm), precipitation of the warmest quarter (≥ 204.37 mm), and nighttime light (≥ 3.38) were important limiting environmental variables for the distribution of B. indica. Under current climate conditions, the projected potential suitable habitats for B. indica were mainly in India, China, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam, which cover a total area of 301.70 × 104 km2 . The potentially suitable areas of B. indica in the world will expand under different future climate change scenarios by 1.61-17.65%. CONCLUSIONS These results validate the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of B. indica and aid in understanding the linkages between B. indica niches and the relevant environment, thereby identifying urgent management areas where interventions may be necessary to develop feasible early warning and prevention strategies to protect against this rodent's spread. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Siliang Lin
- Plant Protection Research Institute, Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Green Prevention and Control on Fruits and Vegetables in South China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of High Technology for Plant Protection, Guangzhou, China
| | - Dandan Yao
- Plant Protection Research Institute, Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Green Prevention and Control on Fruits and Vegetables in South China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of High Technology for Plant Protection, Guangzhou, China
| | - Hongxue Jiang
- Plant Protection Research Institute, Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Green Prevention and Control on Fruits and Vegetables in South China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of High Technology for Plant Protection, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jiao Qin
- Plant Protection Research Institute, Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Green Prevention and Control on Fruits and Vegetables in South China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of High Technology for Plant Protection, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zhiyong Feng
- Plant Protection Research Institute, Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Green Prevention and Control on Fruits and Vegetables in South China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of High Technology for Plant Protection, Guangzhou, China
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35
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Cui L, DeAngelis DL, Berger U, Cao M, Zhang Y, Zhang X, Jiang J. Global potential distribution of mangroves: Taking into account salt marsh interactions along latitudinal gradients. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 351:119892. [PMID: 38176380 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119892] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2023] [Revised: 12/01/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/06/2024]
Abstract
Mangrove is one of the most productive and sensitive ecosystems in the world. Due to the complexity and specificity of mangrove habitat, the development of mangrove is regulated by several factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are effective tools to identify the potential habitats for establishing and regenerating the ecosystem. Such models usually include exclusively environmental factors. Nevertheless, recent studies have challenged this notion and highlight the importance of including biotic interactions. Both factors are necessary for a mechanistic understanding of the mangrove distribution in order to promote the protection and restoration of mangroves. Thus, we present a novel approach of combining environmental factors and interactions with salt marsh for projecting mangrove distributions at the global level and within latitudinal zones. To test the salt marsh interaction, we fit the MaxEnt model with two predicting sets: (1) environments only and (2) environments + salt marsh interaction index (SII). We found that both sets of models had good predictive ability, although the SII improved model performance slightly. Potential distribution areas of mangrove decrease with latitudes, and are controlled by biotic and abiotic factors. Temperature, precipitation and wind speed are generally critical at both global scale and ecotones along latitudes. SII is important on global scale, with a contribution of 5.9%, ranking 6th, and is particularly critical in the 10-30°S and 20-30°N zone. Interactions with salt marsh, including facilitation and competition, are shown to affect the distribution of mangroves at the zone of coastal ecotone, especially in the latitudinal range from 10° - 30°. The contribution of SII to mangrove distribution increases with latitudes due to the difference in the adaptive capacity of salt marsh plants and mangroves to environments. Totally, this study identified and quantified the effects of salt marsh on mangrove distribution by establishing the SII. The results not only facilitate to establish a more accurate mangrove distribution map, but also improve the efficiency of mangrove restoration by considering the salt marsh interaction in the mangrove management projects. In addition, the method of incorporating biotic interaction into SDMs through establish the biotic interaction index has contributed to the development of SDMs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lina Cui
- Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
| | - Donald L DeAngelis
- Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, U. S. Geological Survey, Davie, Florida, USA
| | - Uta Berger
- Department of Forest Biometry and Systems Analysis, Institute of Forest Growth and Forest Computer Sciences, Technische Universitaet Dresden, Dresden, Germany
| | - Minmin Cao
- Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
| | - Yaqi Zhang
- Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
| | | | - Jiang Jiang
- Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China.
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36
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Gouvêa L, Fragkopoulou E, Legrand T, Serrão EA, Assis J. Range map data of marine ecosystem structuring species under global climate change. Data Brief 2024; 52:110023. [PMID: 38293573 PMCID: PMC10827387 DOI: 10.1016/j.dib.2023.110023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2023] [Revised: 12/24/2023] [Accepted: 12/27/2023] [Indexed: 02/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Data on contemporary and future geographical distributions of marine species are crucial for guiding conservation and management policies in face of climate change. However, available distributional patterns have overlooked key ecosystem structuring species, despite their numerous ecological and socioeconomic services. Future range estimates are mostly available for few species at regional scales, and often rely on the outdated Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios of climate change, hindering global biodiversity estimates within the framework of current international climate policies. Here, we provide range maps for 980 marine structuring species of seagrasses, kelps, fucoids, and cold-water corals under present-day conditions (from 2010 to 2020) and future scenarios (from 2090 to 2100) spanning from low carbon emission scenarios aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9), to higher emissions under reduced mitigation strategies (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). These models were developed using state-of-the-art and advanced machine learning algorithms linking the most comprehensive and quality-controlled datasets of occurrence records with high-resolution, biologically relevant predictor variables. By integrating the best aspects of species distribution modelling over key ecosystem structuring species, our datasets hold the potential to enhance the ability to inform strategic and effective conservation policy, ultimately supporting the resilience of ocean ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lidiane Gouvêa
- Centre of Marine Sciences, University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal
| | | | - Térence Legrand
- Centre of Marine Sciences, University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal
| | - Ester A. Serrão
- Centre of Marine Sciences, University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal
| | - Jorge Assis
- Centre of Marine Sciences, University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal
- Faculty of Bioscience and Aquaculture, Nord Universitet, Bodø, Norway
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37
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Sanjeewani N, Samarasinghe D, Jayasinghe H, Ukuwela K, Wijetunga A, Wahala S, De Costa J. Variation of floristic diversity, community composition, endemism, and conservation status of tree species in tropical rainforests of Sri Lanka across a wide altitudinal gradient. Sci Rep 2024; 14:2090. [PMID: 38267529 PMCID: PMC10808289 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-52594-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/20/2024] [Indexed: 01/26/2024] Open
Abstract
Tropical rainforests in Sri Lanka are biodiversity hotspots, which are sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance and long-term climate change. We assessed the diversity, endemism and conservation status of these rainforests across a wide altitudinal range (100-2200 m above sea level) via a complete census of all trees having ≥ 10 cm diameter at breast height in ten one-hectare permanent sampling plots. The numbers of tree families, genera and species and community-scale tree diversity decreased with increasing altitude. Tree diversity, species richness and total basal area per ha across the altitudinal range were positively associated with long-term means of maximum temperature, annual rainfall and solar irradiance. Percentage of endangered species increased with increasing altitude and was positively associated with cumulative maximum soil water deficit, day-night temperature difference and high anthropogenic disturbance. Percentage of endemic species was greater in the lowland rainforests than in high-altitude montane forests. Nearly 85% of the species were recorded in three or less plots, which indicated substantial altitudinal differentiation in their distributions. Less than 10 individuals were recorded in 41% of the endemic species and 45% of the native species, which underlined the need for urgent conservation efforts across the whole altitudinal range.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nimalka Sanjeewani
- Postgraduate Institute of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
| | - Dilum Samarasinghe
- Postgraduate Institute of Archaeology, University of Kelaniya, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | | | - Kanishka Ukuwela
- Department of Biological Science, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, Mihintale, Sri Lanka
| | - Asanga Wijetunga
- Department of Biological Science, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, Mihintale, Sri Lanka
| | - Sampath Wahala
- Department of Tourism Management, Faculty of Management Studies, Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka, Belihul Oya, Sri Lanka
| | - Janendra De Costa
- Department of Crop Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka.
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38
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Pironon S, Ondo I, Diazgranados M, Allkin R, Baquero AC, Cámara-Leret R, Canteiro C, Dennehy-Carr Z, Govaerts R, Hargreaves S, Hudson AJ, Lemmens R, Milliken W, Nesbitt M, Patmore K, Schmelzer G, Turner RM, van Andel TR, Ulian T, Antonelli A, Willis KJ. The global distribution of plants used by humans. Science 2024; 383:293-297. [PMID: 38236975 DOI: 10.1126/science.adg8028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2023] [Accepted: 12/18/2023] [Indexed: 01/23/2024]
Abstract
Plants sustain human life. Understanding geographic patterns of the diversity of species used by people is thus essential for the sustainable management of plant resources. Here, we investigate the global distribution of 35,687 utilized plant species spanning 10 use categories (e.g., food, medicine, material). Our findings indicate general concordance between utilized and total plant diversity, supporting the potential for simultaneously conserving species diversity and its contributions to people. Although Indigenous lands across Mesoamerica, the Horn of Africa, and Southern Asia harbor a disproportionate diversity of utilized plants, the incidence of protected areas is negatively correlated with utilized species richness. Finding mechanisms to preserve areas containing concentrations of utilized plants and traditional knowledge must become a priority for the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Pironon
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, UK
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, UK
| | - I Ondo
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, UK
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, UK
| | - M Diazgranados
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, UK
- International Plant Science Center, New York Botanical Garden, New York, NY, USA
| | - R Allkin
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, UK
| | - A C Baquero
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, UK
| | - R Cámara-Leret
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, Switzerland
| | - C Canteiro
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, UK
| | - Z Dennehy-Carr
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, UK
- Herbarium, School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Whiteknights, UK
| | - R Govaerts
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, UK
| | - S Hargreaves
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, UK
| | - A J Hudson
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Wakehurst, Ardingly, UK
- Botanic Gardens Conservation International, Richmond, UK
| | - R Lemmens
- Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - W Milliken
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Wakehurst, Ardingly, UK
| | - M Nesbitt
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, UK
- Department of Geography, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, UK
- Institute of Archaeology, University College London, London, UK
| | - K Patmore
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, UK
| | - G Schmelzer
- Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - R M Turner
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, UK
| | - T R van Andel
- Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
- Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, Netherlands
| | - T Ulian
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Wakehurst, Ardingly, UK
- Department of Life Sciences and Systems Biology, University of Turin, Turin, Italy
| | - A Antonelli
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, UK
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - K J Willis
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, UK
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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39
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Matias G, Cagnacci F, Rosalino LM. FSC forest certification effects on biodiversity: A global review and meta-analysis. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 908:168296. [PMID: 37926251 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168296] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2023] [Revised: 10/18/2023] [Accepted: 11/01/2023] [Indexed: 11/07/2023]
Abstract
FSC is a worldwide recognized forest certification scheme, that aims to promote the environmentally responsible management and conservation of the world's forests. Despite its broad application, there is little evidence of its effect on biodiversity. To address this important knowledge gap, here we conducted a systematic review and a hierarchical meta-analysis of the effects of FSC on biodiversity worldwide. Our review yielded 57 studies spanning 2004-2022. Most studies were in the Americas and Europe (31 % and 28 %, respectively), and largely focused on vascular plants (41 %). Half (51 %) of the studies aimed to determine the effect of FSC certification on biodiversity. There were 15 studies with sufficient information for meta-analysis, resulting in 231 effect sizes for mammal, bird, and vascular plant abundance and 10 for vascular plant richness. Overall, there is a neutral effect of certification on taxa abundance, with only a positive effect on mammal assemblages. Responses varied considerably between mammals' traits. Threatened species, individuals with reduced body weight, and omnivorous species benefit from management under the FSC scheme. Vascular plant richness exhibited significantly higher values in FSC-certified areas. Moreover, the abundance of vascular plants also differs among traits, with shrubs and adult trees benefiting from FSC certification. Our systematic review and meta-analysis revealed strong variation in biodiversity responses to FSC, and major geographic and taxonomic knowledge gaps. The overall neutral effect and the divergent responses of taxa and species traits suggest that taxa/species-specific management and improvement of FSC criteria are required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gonçalo Matias
- cE3c-Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes and CHANGE-Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal.
| | - Francesca Cagnacci
- Animal Ecology Unit, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, Via E. Mach 1, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, Italy; National Biodiversity Future Centre, Palermo, Italy.
| | - Luís Miguel Rosalino
- cE3c-Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes and CHANGE-Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal.
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Christiaanse JC, Antolínez JAA, Luijendijk AP, Athanasiou P, Duarte CM, Aarninkhof S. Distribution of global sea turtle nesting explained from regional-scale coastal characteristics. Sci Rep 2024; 14:752. [PMID: 38191897 PMCID: PMC10774326 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-50239-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2023] [Accepted: 12/17/2023] [Indexed: 01/10/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change and human activity threaten sea turtle nesting beaches through increased flooding and erosion. Understanding the environmental characteristics that enable nesting can aid to preserve and expand these habitats. While numerous local studies exist, a comprehensive global analysis of environmental influences on the distribution of sea turtle nesting habitats remains largely unexplored. Here, we relate the distribution of global sea turtle nesting to 22 coastal indicators, spanning hydrodynamic, atmospheric, geophysical, habitat, and human processes. Using state-of-the-art global datasets and a novel 50-km-resolution hexagonal coastline grid (Coastgons), we employ machine learning to identify spatially homogeneous patterns in the indicators and correlate these to the occurrence of nesting grounds. Our findings suggest sea surface temperature, tidal range, extreme surges, and proximity to coral and seagrass habitats significantly influence global nesting distribution. Low tidal ranges and low extreme surges appear to be particularly favorable for individual species, likely due to reduced nest flooding. Other indicators, previously reported as influential (e.g., precipitation and wind speed), were not as important in our global-scale analysis. Finally, we identify new, potentially suitable nesting regions for each species. On average, [Formula: see text] of global coastal regions between [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] latitude could be suitable for nesting, while only [Formula: see text] is currently used by turtles, showing that the realized niche is significantly smaller than the fundamental niche, and that there is potential for sea turtles to expand their nesting habitat. Our results help identify suitable nesting conditions, quantify potential hazards to global nesting habitats, and lay a foundation for nature-based solutions to preserve and potentially expand these habitats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jakob C Christiaanse
- Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands.
| | - José A A Antolínez
- Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
| | - Arjen P Luijendijk
- Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
- Deltares , Delft, Netherlands
| | | | - Carlos M Duarte
- Biological Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Stefan Aarninkhof
- Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
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González del Portillo D, Morales MB, Arroyo B. Temporal trends of land-use favourability for the strongly declining little bustard: assessing the role of protected areas. PeerJ 2024; 12:e16661. [PMID: 38188158 PMCID: PMC10771766 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.16661] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2023] [Accepted: 11/21/2023] [Indexed: 01/09/2024] Open
Abstract
The little bustard (Tetrax tetrax) is a steppe bird strongly and negatively influenced by agricultural intensification in Europe. Here, we use the little bustard as a model species to examine how favourability (relative occurrence likelihood of a species based on environmental characteristics, such as habitat availability) varies regionally with degree of protection in north-western Spain. The Natura2000 network is one of the main biodiversity conservation tools of the European Union, aiming to protect areas hosting species of conservation concern from unfavourable land-use changes. The network covers many landscapes across the continent, including farmland. Additionally, we examine the relationship between trends in land-use favourability and little bustard population trends over a decade in the Nature Reserve of Lagunas de Villafáfila, a protected area also in the Natura2000 network where active and intense management focused on steppe bird conservation is carried out. Favourability was much greater in Villafáfila than in both protected areas with lower degree of protection and in non-protected areas. Land-use favourability increased slightly between 2011 and 2020 both in and out of protected areas, whereas little bustard populations declined sharply in that period, even in Villafáfila. Spatial variations in little bustard abundance within Villafáfila depended on social attraction (increasing with the number of neighbouring males) but not significantly on small-scale variations in land-use favourability. These results suggest that land-use management in Natura2000 areas needs to be more conservation-focused, favouring natural and seminatural habitats and traditional farming practices to improve land-use favourability for little bustards and other steppe birds. Additional factors, such as field-level agricultural management or social interaction variables that may cause an Allee effect, should be incorporated in little bustard favourability models to improve their use in conservation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- David González del Portillo
- Department of Ecology and Research Center on Biodiversity and Global Change, Autónoma University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Manuel B. Morales
- Department of Ecology and Research Center on Biodiversity and Global Change, Autónoma University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Beatriz Arroyo
- Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (IREC, CSIC-UCLM-JCCM), Ciudad Real, Spain
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Hoste A, Capblancq T, Broquet T, Denoyelle L, Perrier C, Buzan E, Šprem N, Corlatti L, Crestanello B, Hauffe HC, Pellissier L, Yannic G. Projection of current and future distribution of adaptive genetic units in an alpine ungulate. Heredity (Edinb) 2024; 132:54-66. [PMID: 38082151 PMCID: PMC10798982 DOI: 10.1038/s41437-023-00661-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2022] [Revised: 10/31/2023] [Accepted: 10/31/2023] [Indexed: 01/21/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate projections predict major changes in alpine environments by the end of the 21st century. To avoid climate-induced maladaptation and extinction, many animal populations will either need to move to more suitable habitats or adapt in situ to novel conditions. Since populations of a species exhibit genetic variation related to local adaptation, it is important to incorporate this variation into predictive models to help assess the ability of the species to survive climate change. Here, we evaluate how the adaptive genetic variation of a mountain ungulate-the Northern chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra)-could be impacted by future global warming. Based on genotype-environment association analyses of 429 chamois using a ddRAD sequencing approach, we identified genetic variation associated with climatic gradients across the European Alps. We then delineated adaptive genetic units and projected the optimal distribution of these adaptive groups in the future. Our results suggest the presence of local adaptation to climate in Northern chamois with similar genetic adaptive responses in geographically distant but climatically similar populations. Furthermore, our results predict that future climatic changes will modify the Northern chamois adaptive landscape considerably, with various degrees of maladaptation risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amélie Hoste
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, 38000, Grenoble, France
| | - Thibaut Capblancq
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, 38000, Grenoble, France
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, 05405, USA
| | - Thomas Broquet
- CNRS, Sorbonne Université, UMR 7144, Station Biologique de Roscoff, Place Georges Teissier, 29680, Roscoff, France
| | - Laure Denoyelle
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, 38000, Grenoble, France
| | - Charles Perrier
- UMR CBGP, INRAE, CIRAD, IRD, Institut Agro, Université Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Elena Buzan
- Faculty of Mathematics, Natural Sciences and Information Technologies, University of Primorska, Glagoljaška 8, 6000, Koper, Slovenia
- Faculty of Environmental Protection, Trg mladosti 7, 3320, Velenje, Slovenia
| | - Nikica Šprem
- Department of Fisheries, Apiculture, Wildlife Management and Special Zoology, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zagreb, Svetošimunska 25, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Luca Corlatti
- Stelvio National Park - ERSAF Lombardia, Via De Simoni 42, 23032, Bormio, Italy
- Chair of Wildlife Ecology and Management, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacher Straße 4, 79106, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Barbara Crestanello
- Conservation Genomics Unit, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione E. Mach, Via E. Mach 1, 38098 S, Michele all'Adige, TN, Italy
| | - Heidi Christine Hauffe
- Conservation Genomics Unit, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione E. Mach, Via E. Mach 1, 38098 S, Michele all'Adige, TN, Italy
| | - Loïc Pellissier
- Landscape Ecology, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zrich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Glenn Yannic
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, 38000, Grenoble, France.
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Geng X, Summers J, Chen N. Ecological niche contributes to the persistence of the Western x Glaucous-winged Gull hybrid zone. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2023:2023.12.14.571742. [PMID: 38168246 PMCID: PMC10760172 DOI: 10.1101/2023.12.14.571742] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2024]
Abstract
Hybrid zones occur in nature when populations with limited reproductive barriers overlap in space. Many hybrid zones persist over time, and different models have been proposed to explain how selection can maintain hybrid zone stability. More empirical studies are needed to elucidate the role of ecological adaptation in maintaining stable hybrid zones. Here, we investigated the role of exogenous factors in maintaining a hybrid zone between western gulls (Larus occidentalis) and glaucous-winged gulls (L. glaucescens). We used ecological niche models (ENMs) and niche similarity tests to quantify and examine the ecological niches of western gulls, glaucous-winged gulls, and their hybrids. We found evidence of niche divergence between all three groups. Our results best support the bounded superiority model, providing further evidence that exogenous selection favoring hybrids may be an important factor in maintaining this stable hybrid zone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuewen Geng
- Department of Biology, University of Rochester
| | | | - Nancy Chen
- Department of Biology, University of Rochester
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Athni TS, Childs ML, Glidden CK, Mordecai EA. Temperature dependence of mosquitoes: comparing mechanistic and machine learning approaches. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2023:2023.12.04.569955. [PMID: 38105988 PMCID: PMC10723351 DOI: 10.1101/2023.12.04.569955] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2023]
Abstract
Mosquito vectors of pathogens (e.g., Aedes , Anopheles , and Culex spp. which transmit dengue, Zika, chikungunya, West Nile, malaria, and others) are of increasing concern for global public health. These vectors are geographically shifting under climate and other anthropogenic changes. As small-bodied ectotherms, mosquitoes are strongly affected by temperature, which causes unimodal responses in mosquito life history traits (e.g., biting rate, adult mortality rate, mosquito development rate, and probability of egg-to-adult survival) that exhibit upper and lower thermal limits and intermediate thermal optima in laboratory studies. However, it remains unknown how mosquito thermal responses measured in laboratory experiments relate to the realized thermal responses of mosquitoes in the field. To address this gap, we leverage thousands of global mosquito occurrences and geospatial satellite data at high spatial resolution to construct machine-learning based species distribution models, from which vector thermal responses are estimated. We apply methods to restrict models to the relevant mosquito activity season and to conduct ecologically-plausible spatial background sampling centered around ecoregions for comparison to mosquito occurrence records. We found that thermal minima estimated from laboratory studies were highly correlated with those from the species distributions (r = 0.90). The thermal optima were less strongly correlated (r = 0.69). For most species, we did not detect thermal maxima from their observed distributions so were unable to compare to laboratory-based estimates. The results suggest that laboratory studies have the potential to be highly transportable to predicting lower thermal limits and thermal optima of mosquitoes in the field. At the same time, lab-based models likely capture physiological limits on mosquito persistence at high temperatures that are not apparent from field-based observational studies but may critically determine mosquito responses to climate warming.
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Bisneto PF, Frazão L, Ceron K, Sachett J, Monteiro WM, Kaefer IL, Guedes TB. The challenge in detecting risk areas of snakebite when case rates are low: the case of Amazonian coral snakes. AN ACAD BRAS CIENC 2023; 95:e20230565. [PMID: 38088733 DOI: 10.1590/0001-3765202320230565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2023] [Accepted: 09/17/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Identifying risk areas for envenomation by animals is relevant for public health, such as strategic distribution of antivenoms. Coral snakes are highly diverse in the Amazon, inhabit natural and human-modified environments, and the outcome of the cases tends to be serious and potentially lethal due to their neurotoxic venom. By integrating species' geographical records and environmental variables, we used species distribution modeling to predict the distribution of coral snake species in the Brazilian Amazonia. We analyzed the relationship between the predicted distribution of coral snake species, along with envenomation data in the region, to propose actions to reduce the number of cases and to provide tools for a better policy of public health. We conclude that the entire Amazon shows high environmental suitability for coral snakes, and such suitability explains little about the incidence of cases. This is probably due to the low human density in the Amazon and to coral snake traits such as secretive habits and non-agressive behavior. Differently from other venomous snakes, the scenario regarding coral snakebites precludes the detection of prominent geographical areas of concern and demands a broad and equitable availability of health centers throughout Amazonia and along other areas of occurrence of the genus Micrurus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pedro Ferreira Bisneto
- Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Zoologia, Avenida General Rodrigo Otávio, Coroado I, 69067-005 Manaus, AM, Brazil
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Doutor Heitor Vieira Dourado, Av. Pedro Teixeira, s/n, Dom Pedro, 69040-000 Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Luciana Frazão
- University of Coimbra, Centre for Functional Ecology - Science for People & the Planet, Department of Life Sciences, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Paço das Escolas, 3000-456, Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Karoline Ceron
- Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Biologia, Departamento de Biologia Animal, Cidade Universitária Zeferino Vaz - Barão Geraldo, 13083-872 Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Jacqueline Sachett
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Doutor Heitor Vieira Dourado, Av. Pedro Teixeira, s/n, Dom Pedro, 69040-000 Manaus, AM, Brazil
- Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Escola Superior de Ciências da Saúde, Av. Carvalho Leal, 1777, Cachoeirinha, 69065-001 Manaus, AM, Brazil
- Fundação Alfredo da Matta, Diretoria de Ensino e Pesquisa, Av. Codajás, 24, Cachoeirinha, 69065-130 Manaus, AM, Brazil
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical, Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado, Diretoria de Ensino e Pesquisa, Av. Pedro Teixeira, s/n, Dom Pedro, 69040-000 Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Wuelton Marcelo Monteiro
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Doutor Heitor Vieira Dourado, Av. Pedro Teixeira, s/n, Dom Pedro, 69040-000 Manaus, AM, Brazil
- Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Escola Superior de Ciências da Saúde, Av. Carvalho Leal, 1777, Cachoeirinha, 69065-001 Manaus, AM, Brazil
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical, Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado, Diretoria de Ensino e Pesquisa, Av. Pedro Teixeira, s/n, Dom Pedro, 69040-000 Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Igor Luis Kaefer
- Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Zoologia, Avenida General Rodrigo Otávio, Coroado I, 69067-005 Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Thaís B Guedes
- Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Departamento de Biologia Animal, Instituto de Biologia, Rua Monteiro Lobato, 255, Bloco P1, Cidade Universitária, 13083-862 Campinas, SP, Brazil
- University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Center and Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Box 461, SE-405-30, Göteborg, Sweden
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Yang J, Fu Z, Xiao K, Dong H, Zhou Y, Zhan Q. Climate Change Potentially Leads to Habitat Expansion and Increases the Invasion Risk of Hydrocharis (Hydrocharitaceae). PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 12:4124. [PMID: 38140451 PMCID: PMC10748102 DOI: 10.3390/plants12244124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 12/07/2023] [Accepted: 12/08/2023] [Indexed: 12/24/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is a crucial factor impacting the geographical distribution of plants and potentially increases the risk of invasion for certain species, especially for aquatic plants dispersed by water flow. Here, we combined six algorithms provided by the biomod2 platform to predict the changes in global climate-suitable areas for five species of Hydrocharis (Hydrocharitaceae) (H. chevalieri, H. dubia, H. laevigata, H. morsus-ranae, and H. spongia) under two current and future carbon emission scenarios. Our results show that H. dubia, H. morsus-ranae, and H. laevigata had a wide range of suitable areas and a high risk of invasion, while H. chevalieri and H. spongia had relatively narrow suitable areas. In the future climate scenario, the species of Hydrocharis may gain a wider habitat area, with Northern Hemisphere species showing a trend of migration to higher latitudes and the change in tropical species being more complex. The high-carbon-emission scenario led to greater changes in the habitat area of Hydrocharis. Therefore, we recommend strengthening the monitoring and reporting of high-risk species and taking effective measures to control the invasion of Hydrocharis species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiongming Yang
- School of Life Sciences, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China; (J.Y.); (Z.F.)
| | - Zhihao Fu
- School of Life Sciences, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China; (J.Y.); (Z.F.)
| | - Keyan Xiao
- Hubei Xiuhu Botanical Garden, Xiaogan 432500, China;
| | - Hongjin Dong
- Hubei Key Laboratory of Economic Forest Germplasm Improvement and Resources Comprehensive Utilization, Huanggang Normal University, Huanggang 438000, China;
| | - Yadong Zhou
- School of Life Sciences, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China; (J.Y.); (Z.F.)
| | - Qinghua Zhan
- School of Life Sciences, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China; (J.Y.); (Z.F.)
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Snyder ED, Tank JL, Brandão-Dias PFP, Bibby K, Shogren AJ, Bivins AW, Peters B, Curtis EM, Bolster D, Egan SP, Lamberti GA. Environmental DNA (eDNA) removal rates in streams differ by particle size under varying substrate and light conditions. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 903:166469. [PMID: 37633388 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166469] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2023] [Revised: 08/17/2023] [Accepted: 08/19/2023] [Indexed: 08/28/2023]
Abstract
The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) as a sampling tool offers insights into the detection of invasive and/or rare aquatic species and enables biodiversity assessment without traditional sampling approaches, which are often labor-intensive. However, our understanding of the environmental factors that impact eDNA removal (i.e., how rapidly eDNA is removed from the water column by the combination of decay and physical removal) in flowing waters is limited. This limitation constrains predictions about the location and density of target organisms after positive detection. To address this question, we spiked Common Carp (Cyprinus carpio) eDNA into recirculating mesocosms (n = 24) under varying light (shaded versus open) and benthic substrate conditions (no substrate, bare substrate, and biofilm-colonized substrate). We then collected water samples from each mesocosm at four time points (40 min, 6 h, 18 h, and 48 h), and sequentially filtered the samples through 10, 1.0, and 0.2 μm filters to quantify removal rates for different eDNA particle sizes under varying light and substrate conditions. Combining all size classes, total eDNA removal rates were higher for mesocosms with biofilm-colonized substrate compared to those with no substrate or bare (i.e., no biofilm) substrate, which is consistent with previous findings linking biofilm colonization with increased eDNA removal and degradation. Additionally, when biofilm was present, light availability increased eDNA removal; eDNA levels fell below detection after 6-18 h for open mesocosms versus 18-48 h for shaded mesocosms. Among size classes, larger particles (>10 μm) were removed faster than small particles (1.0-0.2 μm). These results suggest that changes in the distribution of eDNA size classes over time (e.g., with downstream transport) and with differing environmental conditions could be used to predict the location of target organisms in flowing waters, which will advance the use of eDNA as a tool for species monitoring and management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elise D Snyder
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Galvin Life Sciences, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
| | - Jennifer L Tank
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Galvin Life Sciences, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
| | | | - Kyle Bibby
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Earth Science, University of Notre Dame, 156 Fitzpatrick Hall of Engineering, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
| | - Arial J Shogren
- Department of Biological Sciences, The University of Alabama, Science and Engineering Complex,1325 Hackberry Ln, Tuscaloosa, AL 35401, USA.
| | - Aaron W Bivins
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, 3255 Patrick F. Taylor Hall, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA.
| | - Brett Peters
- Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, 721 Flanner Hall, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
| | - Erik M Curtis
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Galvin Life Sciences, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
| | - Diogo Bolster
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Galvin Life Sciences, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA; Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Earth Science, University of Notre Dame, 156 Fitzpatrick Hall of Engineering, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
| | - Scott P Egan
- Department of BioSciences, Rice University, 6100 Main St, Houston, TX 77005-1827, USA.
| | - Gary A Lamberti
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Galvin Life Sciences, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
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Natsukawa H, Yuasa H, Sutton LJ, Amano H, Haga M, Itaya H, Kawashima H, Komuro S, Konno T, Mori K, Onagi M, Ichinose T, Sergio F. Utilizing a top predator to prioritize site protection for biodiversity conservation. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 347:119110. [PMID: 37783076 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2023] [Revised: 06/25/2023] [Accepted: 08/30/2023] [Indexed: 10/04/2023]
Abstract
Ongoing global change makes it ever more urgent to find creative solutions for biodiversity preservation, but prioritizing sites for protection can be challenging. One shortcut lies in mapping the habitat requirements of well-established biodiversity indicators, such as top predators, to identify high-biodiversity sites. Here, we planned site protection for biodiversity conservation by developing a multi-scale species distribution model (SDM) for the raptorial Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; goshawk) breeding in an extensive megacity region of Japan. Specifically, we: (1) examined the determinants of top predator occurrence and thus of high-biodiversity value in this megacity setting, (2) identified the biodiversity hotspots, (3) validated whether they actually held higher biodiversity through an independent dataset, and (4) evaluated their current protection by environmental laws. The SDM revealed that goshawks preferred secluded sites far from roads, with abundant forest within a 100 m radius and extensive forest ecotones suitable for hunting within a 900 m radius. This multi-scale landscape configuration was independently confirmed to hold higher biodiversity, yet covered only 3.2% of the study area, with only 44.0% of these sites legally protected. Thus, a rapid biodiversity assessment mediated by a top predator quickly highlighted: (1) the poor development of biodiversity-friendly urban planning in this megacity complex, an aspect overlooked for decades of rapid urban sprawl, and (2) the extreme urgency of extending legal protection to the sites missed by the current protected area network. Exigent biodiversity indicators, such as top predators, could be employed in the early or late stages of anthropogenic impacts in order to proactively incorporate biodiversity protection into planning or flag key biodiversity relics. Our results confirm and validate the applied reliability of top predatory species as biodiversity conservation tools.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haruki Natsukawa
- Department of Conservation Biology, Estación Biológica de Doñana - CSIC, Seville, Spain.
| | - Hiroki Yuasa
- Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, Kanagawa, Japan
| | | | | | - Masaru Haga
- Japan Accipiter Working Group, Ishikawa, Japan
| | | | | | | | - Takeo Konno
- Japan Accipiter Working Group, Ishikawa, Japan
| | - Kaname Mori
- Japan Accipiter Working Group, Ishikawa, Japan
| | | | - Tomohiro Ichinose
- Faculty of Environment and Information Studies, Keio University, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Fabrizio Sergio
- Department of Conservation Biology, Estación Biológica de Doñana - CSIC, Seville, Spain
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Zimmer SN, Holsinger KW, Dawson CA. A field-validated ensemble species distribution model of Eriogonum pelinophilum, an endangered subshrub in Colorado, USA. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10816. [PMID: 38107426 PMCID: PMC10721943 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10816] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2023] [Revised: 10/10/2023] [Accepted: 11/27/2023] [Indexed: 12/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding the suitable habitat of endangered species is crucial for agencies such as the Bureau of Land Management to plan management and conservation. However, few species distribution models are directly validated, potentially limiting their application in management. In preparation for a Species Status Assessment of clay-loving wild buckwheat (Eriogonum pelinophilum), an endangered subshrub found in southwest Colorado, we ran a series of species distribution models to estimate the species' potential occupied habitat and validated these models in the field. A 1-meter resolution digital elevation model derived from LiDAR and a high-resolution geology mapping helped identify biologically relevant characteristics of the species' habitat. We employed a weighted ensemble model based on two Random Forest and one Boosted Regression Tree model, and discrimination performance of the ensemble model was high (AUC-PR = 0.793). We then conducted a systematic field survey of model habitat suitability predictions, during which we discovered 55 new subpopulations of the species and demonstrated that new species observations were strongly associated with model predictions (p < .0001, Cliff's delta = 0.575). We further refined our original models by incorporating the additional species occurrences collected in the field survey, a new explanatory variable, and a more diverse set of models. These iterative changes marginally improved performance of the ensemble model (AUC-PR = 0.825). Direct validation of species distribution models is extremely rare, and our field survey provides strong validation of our model results. This helps increase confidence to utilize predictions in planning. The final model predictions greatly improve the Bureau of Land Management's understanding of the species' habitat and increase our ability to consider potential habitat in planning land use activities such as road development and travel management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Scott N. Zimmer
- Uncompahgre Field OfficeBureau of Land ManagementMontroseColoradoUSA
- Fire Sciences LaboratoryRocky Mountain Research Station, U.S. Forest ServiceMissoulaMontanaUSA
| | | | - Carol A. Dawson
- Colorado State OfficeBureau of Land ManagementLakewoodColoradoUSA
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Lovell RSL, Collins S, Martin SH, Pigot AL, Phillimore AB. Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2023; 98:2243-2270. [PMID: 37558208 DOI: 10.1111/brv.13004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2022] [Revised: 07/20/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023]
Abstract
In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These 'space-for-time substitutions' (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable - population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate-biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate-biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca S L Lovell
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Sinead Collins
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Simon H Martin
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Alex L Pigot
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Albert B Phillimore
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
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