COVID-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean: Two years of the pandemic

Risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes in LATAM countries in the post-vaccination era: an analysis of national surveillance data in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico

Background

Identifying cases at higher risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes is essential for tailoring interventions for prevention and treatment. We aimed to determine the factors related to hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, use of ventilatory support, and mortality in four Latin American countries.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study using national COVID-19 surveillance databases from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, covering the period from January 2021 to December 2022. We used multivariate logistic regression models to identify factors associated with hospitalisation, ICU admission, ventilatory support, and death, adjusting for confounding variables.

Results

We included 34 955 384 confirmed cases in the analysis. Age and sex were significantly associated with increased odds of all outcomes. For hospitalisation, in cases aged >85 years, the odds ratio (OR) for hospitalisation ranged from 26.46 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 25.67-27.28) in Mexico to 2763.87 (95% CI = 2644.40-2888.73) in Brazil, and for males, it ranged from 1.42 (95% CI = 1.41-1.43) in Colombia to 1.77 (95% CI = 1.76-1.78) in Brazil. Indigenous race was significantly associated with higher odds of hospitalisation (ORs ranging from 1.26 to 1.98) and death (ORs ranging from 1.05 to 1.84). The number of comorbidities reported was related to increased odds of severe outcomes and varied across countries. The odds of death for cases with zero vaccine doses were significantly higher (ORs ranging from 1.72 to 31.73) compared to cases with two doses. Similarly, the odds of death for cases with one dose were significantly higher (ORs ranging from 1.73 to 7.00) compared to cases with two doses.

Conclusions

Even in a post-vaccine implementation scenario, individual factors such as age, gender, comorbidities, and race still pose a risk to severe COVID-19, which demands tailoring public health strategies for prevention and treatment.

Pandemic preparedness and response priorities in Latin America: A regional Delphi consensus

OBJECTIVE

The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response issued a series of recommendations for future pandemic preparedness and response. Latin America's COVID-19-related deaths represented 25 % of the global demises, despite harboring less than 8 % of the world's population. As little data exists to support whether the Panel's recommendations reflect public health professionals' priorities in the region the study aimed to define these priorities utilizing a Delphi study.

STUDY DESIGN

A consensus-building modified Delphi technique.

METHODS

For the first two rounds, participants were asked to rank a list of topics across seven domains on a 4-point Likert scale. Topics voted by at least 75 % of participants in either round as very important were included in the final round. Participants ranked the topics from each of the seven domains in numeric order to define top priorities.

RESULTS

A total of 115 responses were obtained across three rounds. Most respondents were involved in direct efforts against COVID-19 (75·0-86·%) and a considerable proportion had more than 16 years of public health experience (37·3-50·0 %). The top priority issues were zoonotic disease-pathogen surveillance systems (27·4 points), robust infection and prevention control programs (22·8 points), and indicator and event-based monitoring and reporting systems (22·1 points).

CONCLUSIONS

Establishing priorities for future pandemics is critical to ensure better health outcomes. The region should strengthen collaboration and enhance its capacities while conducting country-level analysis and defining priorities for future arrangements.

COVID-19 Disease and Economic Burden to Healthcare Systems in Adults in Six Latin American Countries Before Nationwide Vaccination Program: Ministry of Health Database Assessment and Literature Review

The COVID-19 pandemic imposed a substantial burden on healthcare systems worldwide, yet reliable data on COVID-19 morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs in Latin America remain limited. This study explored the disease and economic burden of COVID-19 in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru during the pre-vaccination period. Using national databases and a systematic review of the literature, we analyzed data on adults aged 18 and older, reporting cases, death rates, years of life lost, excess mortality, and direct medical costs. Before vaccination programs began, the average COVID-19 incidence rate was 6741 per 100,000 adults. Of these, 91% were mild cases, 7% moderate/severe, and 2% critical. Among 2,201,816 hospitalizations, 27.8% required intensive care, and 17.5% required mechanical ventilation. Excess mortality ranged from 76 to 557 per 100,000, and years of life lost spanned 241,089 to 3,312,346. Direct medical costs ranged from USD 258 million to USD 10,437 million, representing 2-5% of national health expenditures. The findings highlight significant variability across countries and provide crucial insights to help policymakers to make informed decisions and allocate resources effectively to improve national strategies around surveillance, preventive and treatment strategies to control the spread of COVID-19 disease in the future.

Clinical characteristics, SARS-CoV-2 variants, and outcomes of adults hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Latin American countries

OBJECTIVES

COVID-19 vaccines prevented severe disease outcomes worldwide. As part of a vaccine effectiveness study, the authors summarized demographic and health profiles, vaccination data, SARS-CoV-2 variants, and disease outcomes from patients hospitalized due to COVID-19-like symptoms in Latin America between February and December 2022.

METHODS

LIVE was an observational-prospective study with a test-negative case-control design (NCT05282017). Adults admitted with COVID-19-like symptoms were recruited across five Latin American countries. Patients were tested for SARS-CoV-2, and variants were identified through sequencing. Data were collected from medical records and interviews.

RESULTS

Participants recruited (536 cases, 250 controls) had a mean age of 60.5 years. COVID-19 cases (63.7, SD = 19.1) were slightly older than controls (53.8, SD = 20.4). Disorders of the cardiovascular system were the most prevalent comorbidities, and most participants (73.0 %) reported at least one comorbidity. COVID-19 cases mostly presented with moderate (51.1 %) disease. Overall, 50.6 % of participants were unvaccinated against COVID-19, with a higher percentage in cases (56.3 %) than in controls (38.2 %). Viral genomic analysis identified the most prevalent SARS-CoV-2 lineages, BQ.1.1 (11.9 %) among Omicron BA.5 and XBB.1.15 (2.5 %) among recombinant variants. The study was underpowered to estimate vaccine effectiveness due to the low number of COVID-19 hospitalization cases.

CONCLUSION

The present study revealed key demographic and clinical characteristics of patients hospitalized due to COVID-19. Notably, an older age among confirmed cases, a substantial proportion of unvaccinated individuals, and the decrease in hospitalizations emphasize the complexity of the COVID-19 landscape in Latin America and the need for continued research to inform public health strategies.

Biophysics of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein's receptor-binding domain interaction with ACE2 and neutralizing antibodies: from computation to functional insights

The spike protein encoded by the SARS-CoV-2 has become one of the most studied macromolecules in recent years due to its central role in COVID-19 pathogenesis. The spike protein's receptor-binding domain (RBD) directly interacts with the host-encoded receptor protein, ACE2. This review critically examines computational insights into RBD's interaction with ACE2 and with therapeutic antibodies designed to interfere with this interaction. We begin by summarizing insights from early computational studies on pre-pandemic SARS-CoV-1 RBD interactions and how these early studies shaped the understanding of SARS-CoV-2. Next, we highlight key theoretical contributions that revealed the molecular mechanisms behind the binding affinity of SARS-CoV-2 RBD against ACE2, and the structural changes that have enhanced the infectivity of emerging variants. Special attention is given to the "RBD charge rule", a predictive framework for determining variant infectivity based on the electrostatic properties of the RBD. Towards applying the computational insights to therapy, we discuss a multiscale computational protocol for optimizing monoclonal antibodies to improve binding affinity across multiple spike protein variants, including representatives from the Omicron family. Finally, we explore how these insights can inform the development of future vaccines and therapeutic interventions for combating future coronavirus diseases.

Fatal journeys: causes of death in international travellers in South America

BACKGROUND

Understanding mortality among travellers is essential for mitigating risks and enhancing travel safety. However, limited evidence exists on severe illnesses and injuries leading to death among travellers, particularly in low- and middle-income countries and remote regions.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective census study using country-level observational data from death certificates of travellers of seven South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Uruguay) from 2017 to 2021. Causes of death were evaluated using ICD-10 codes, categorized into non-communicable diseases (NCDs), communicable diseases and injuries. We quantified causes of death by demographic characteristics (e.g. age, sex) and geographical variables. Chi-square tests were used to assess differences between categories. We calculated crude mortality rates and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) per country's subregions.

RESULTS

A total of 17 245 deaths were reported. NCDs (55%) were the most common cause of death, followed by communicable diseases (23.4%) and injuries (18.1%). NCD-associated deaths increased after age 55 years and were highest among ≥85 years. Communicable diseases were more common at younger age (<20 years). Injury-associated deaths were more common in men (79.9%) and 25-29-year-olds (17.1%). Most deaths (68.2%) could have been avoided by prevention or treatment. Mortality risk was higher among travellers in bordering regions between countries. In Roraima (Brazil) and Norte de Santander (Colombia), locations bordering Venezuela, the death IRR was 863 and 60, respectively. These countries' reference mortality rates in those regions were much lower. More than 80% of the deaths in these border regions of Brazil and Colombia involved Venezuelan citizens.

CONCLUSION

The study identified risk factors and high-risk locations for deaths among travellers in seven countries of South America. Our findings underscore the need for specific health interventions tailored to traveller demographics and destination to optimize prevention of avoidable deaths in South America.

The pharmaceutical suitcase trade and the need for multisectoral regulation-unproven COVID-19 (Ivermectin and HCQ remedies unmask an insidious health danger in a Caribbean Island)

This article seeks to highlight an aspect of the illegal pharmaceutical trade in the Caribbean. With the advent of COVID-19 there has been a shortage of a number of drugs in the formal sector. This is largely due to restrictions on foreign exchange, importation delays and sensationalized reporting of unrecommended drugs having a curative effect on COVID-19 patients. This article examines the issue of "the informal suitcase trading" of these drugs. It posits a need for a collaborative and multi-sectoral approach to mitigate the negative effects of the practice on health, trade and national security.

Increased Early-Mortality in Children With Solid Tumors During the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Middle-Income Country

BACKGROUND

Measures to control COVID-19 transmission disrupted childhood cancer care. Data on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on childhood cancer mortality are lacking. This study describes the impact of the pandemic on childhood cancer early-mortality (≤ 24 months).

METHODS

A multicenter prospective cohort was conducted in 10 Colombian cities. Children with newly diagnosed cancer registered in the Childhood Cancer Clinical Outcomes Surveillance System (VIGICANCER) were included. Our primary outcome was cumulative mortality at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. The exposed cohort (EC = March 25, 2020-December 31, 2021) was compared with a historic cohort (HC = January 1, 2017-March 24, 2020). Covariates included sociodemographics, place of residence, health insurance type, and tumor classification.

RESULTS

The cohort included 4124 children, comprised of 1627 children in the EC and 2497 children in the HC. Hematolymphoid, central nervous system, and extracranial solid tumors represented 57%, 15%, and 28% of patients, respectively. Participants' median age was 6.7 years (IQR, 3.2-11.3), 54% were male, 7% were Afro-descendant, and 47% had public insurance. In the EC, the 6-month and 24-month mortality adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) in children with solid tumors was 1.7 (95% CI, 1.1-2.7) and 1.3 (95% CI, 1.0-1.7), respectively, and in children with bone tumors 4.0 (95% CI, 1.2-13.0) and 2.1 (95% CI, 1.2-3.6), respectively. These associations persisted after accounting for metastatic disease. Six-month mortality aHRs for retinoblastoma, bone tumors, and soft tissue sarcomas due to progressive disease were 4.3 (95% CI, 1.3-14.5), 4.0 (95% CI, 1.4-11.3), and 5.4 (95% CI, 2.2-13.5), respectively. In the EC, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for metastatic solid tumors vs. nonmetastatic was 1.4 (95% CI, 1.0-1.8) and in children with retinoblastoma and public insurance the 24-month mortality aHR was 4.9 (95% CI, 1.1-21.7).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed increased early-mortality for solid tumors, particularly bone tumors and retinoblastoma, likely attributed to more advanced-stage presentation and loss of treatment effectiveness due to healthcare disruptions. Early-mortality was higher in patients with public insurance, a vulnerable population that warrants attention.

In-hospital unfavorable outcomes of MIS-C during 2020-2022: a systematic review

Studies on the severity in multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) show heterogeneous results and may not reflect a global perspective. This systematic review aims to estimate the frequency of in-hospital unfavorable outcomes in patients with MIS-C over the 3 years since the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A systematic search was conducted in Medline, Scopus, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, Scielo, and preprint repositories until December 15, 2022. Study selection and data extraction were evaluated independently. The primary outcomes were intensive care unit (ICU) admission, invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and death. Additionally, we evaluated cardiovascular-related outcomes. We performed a random-effects model meta-analysis and assessed the certainty of the evidence. Fifty-seven studies (n = 13 254) were included. The frequency of ICU admission was 44.7% (95% CI 38.8-50.7), 11.9% for IMV (95% CI 9.6-14.4), and 2.0% for death (95% CI 1.3-3.0). The requirement of vasoactive/inotropic drugs was 40.1% (95% CI 35.9-44.4), 7.9% for coronary aneurysm (95% CI 4.1-12.7), 30.7% for decreased left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) (95% CI 26.3-35.4), and 29.7% for myocarditis (95% CI 18.4-42.4). We assess the included evidence as being of very low certainty. Finally, excess COVID-19 mortality by country and the diagnostic criteria for MIS-C (CDC compared to WHO) were associated with a higher frequency of ICU admissions. The year of study conduction (2022 compared to 2020) was associated with a lower frequency of IMV.

CONCLUSION

The frequency of in-hospital unfavorable outcomes in patients with MIS-C was high. Well-designed studies are needed to explore other heterogeneity sources.

PROTOCOL REGISTRATION

CRD42021284878.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a serious post-infectious condition linked to SARS-CoV-2. Studies on the severity of MIS-C show heterogeneous results. These findings may not be representative of the reality in other regions, making it challenging to draw generalizable conclusions.

WHAT IS NEW

• Over the 3 years since the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, our systematic review has shown that the frequency of in-hospital unfavorable outcomes in patients with MIS-C is high, with a very low certainty of the evidence. Our results reflect the reality from a global perspective, across different countries with varying income levels. • The main sources of heterogeneity in the frequency of severe outcomes could be explained by the excess mortality due to COVID-19 in each country, the type of diagnostic criteria for MIS-C, and the year the study was conducted.

The burden of COVID-19 in Latin American and Caribbean countries: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

OBJECTIVES

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a profound impact on the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. This study aims to summarise key findings from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 in the region. We also explore disparities in burden rates and the relationship with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

STUDY DESIGN

A cross-sectional analysis of GBD 2021 results was conducted.

METHODS

We obtained the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to COVID-19 for 20 countries, analysing number- and age-adjusted rates. Spearman's correlation (rho) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) assessed the SDI-DALY rates relationship.

RESULTS

COVID-19 was the leading cause disease burden in the region, with 20,437,321 DALYs in 2020 and 31,525,824 in 2021. Premature mortality (years of life lost) accounted for over 95%. Disparities existed across sexes, age groups, and countries, with Bolivia and Peru having the highest rates. A significant 2021 correlation was found (rho = -0.55, 95% CI: -0.90 to 0.19; P = 0.013) but not in 2020 (rho = -0.40, 95% CI: -0.75 to 0.05; P = 0.078).

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 posed a significant burden in Latin America and the Caribbean, emphasising the need for targeted interventions, especially in socioeconomically disadvantaged regions.

Adaptation of WHO COVID-19 guidelines by Caribbean countries and territories

The normative role of the World Health Organization (WHO) involves creating evidence-based, principled guidelines to guide its Member States in making well-informed public health decisions. While these guidelines often need to be adapted to ensure contextual relevance, foster better implementation and adherence, adapting existing guidelines is more efficient than creating new ones. Here we describe the adaptation of the WHO coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) living guideline on pharmacological interventions for the Caribbean using the grading of recommendations, assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE)-ADOLOPMENT method. The Caribbean Public Health Agency and the Pan American Health Organization led the effort, assembling a diverse panel of 16 experts from seven Caribbean countries and territories. The adaptation process, involving 15 steps, was guided by an experienced methodologist and included selecting relevant clinical questions and prioritizing them based on regional needs. The panel evaluated the latest WHO guidelines and integrated additional local data. They adjusted the direction and strength of several recommendations to better fit the Caribbean context, considering local values and preferences, resources, accessibility, feasibility and impact on health equity. Ultimately, we changed the direction of two recommendations and the strength of five, tailoring them to regional realities. This effort highlights the importance of adapting global guidelines to local settings, improving their applicability and effectiveness. The adaptation process also serves as a valuable opportunity for skill transfer and capacity-building in guideline development. Continued research is needed to assess the impact of these adaptations on health-care outcomes in the Caribbean.

Pre-Existing Atrial Fibrillation in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: Insights from the CARDIO COVID 19-20 Registry

Pre-existing (chronic) atrial fibrillation (AF) has been identified as a risk factor for cardiovascular complications and mortality in patients with COVID-19; however, evidence in Latin America (LATAM) is scarce. This prospective and multicenter study from the CARDIO COVID 19-20 database includes hospitalized adults with COVID-19 from 14 countries in LATAM. A parsimonious logistic regression model was used to identify the main factors associated with mortality in a simulated case-control setting comparing patients with a history of AF to those without. In total, 3260 patients were included, of which 115 had AF. The AF group was older, had a higher prevalence of comorbidities, and had greater use of cardiovascular medications. In the model, AF, chronic kidney disease, and a respiratory rate > 25 at admission were associated with higher in-hospital mortality. The use of corticosteroids did not reach statistical significance; however, an effect was seen through the confidence interval. Thus, pre-existing AF increases mortality risk irrespective of other concomitant factors. Chronic kidney disease and a high respiratory rate at admission are also key factors for in-hospital mortality. These findings highlight the importance of comorbidities and regional characteristics in COVID-19 outcomes, in this instance, enhancing the evidence for patients from LATAM.

Long COVID Clusters of Symptoms Persist beyond Two Years after Infection: Insights from the CARDIO COVID 20-21 Registry

Long COVID presents with diverse symptoms after COVID-19. Different clusters of symptoms have been reported; however, their persistence beyond 2 years after COVID-19 remains unclear. In this cohort study, we prospectively evaluated individuals with previous severe COVID-19 presenting with long COVID at a two-year follow-up. We characterized the included patients and performed a cluster analysis of symptoms through multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical clustering. A total of 199 patients with long COVID were included. The median age was 58 years (48-69), 56% were male, and the median follow-up time since the COVID-19 diagnosis was 26 months (IQR: 25, 27). Three symptom clusters were identified: Cluster 1 is characterized by fatigue, myalgia/arthralgia, a low prevalence of symptoms, and a lack of specific symptoms; Cluster 2 is defined by a high prevalence of fatigue, myalgia/arthralgia, and cardiorespiratory symptoms, including palpitations, shortness of breath, cough, and chest pain; and Cluster 3 is demonstrated a high prevalence of ageusia, anosmia, fatigue, and cardiorespiratory symptoms. Our study reinforces the concept of symptom clustering in long COVID, providing evidence that these clusters may persist beyond two years after a COVID-19 diagnosis. This highlights the chronic and debilitating nature of long COVID and the importance of developing strategies to mitigate symptoms in these patients.

Clinical characteristics, diagnosis, treatment and outcomes of patients living with HIV and co-infected with tuberculosis and histoplasmosis: a 5-y retrospective case series

BACKGROUND

In Latin America, tuberculosis (TB) and histoplasmosis are two of the most frequent opportunistic infections affecting people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, there are limited data on the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with concurrent TB and histoplasmosis infections.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study to describe the clinical, epidemiological and laboratory characteristics and outcomes of 21 patients living with HIV (PLHIV) who were diagnosed with concurrent histoplasmosis and TB between 2017 and 2021 in Guatemala City, Guatemala.

RESULTS

Most patients were male and were newly diagnosed with HIV. All patients had advanced HIV disease (AHD). They presented with a median CD4 count of 20 cells/µl. The most common symptoms reported by the patients were fever, weight loss, cough and diarrhoea. Twelve patients died within 6 months of baseline evaluation, for a mortality rate of 57.1%.

CONCLUSIONS

PLHIV with concurrent TB and histoplasmosis infections are characterised by AHD, predominantly presenting with disseminated forms of these infections and with unspecific symptoms and signs. This evidence calls for early HIV and opportunistic infection screening and insights into the challenges and opportunities for the efficient diagnostic and therapeutic management of patients with AHD with concurrent histoplasmosis and TB infections.

Cardiovascular testing recovery in Latin America one year into the COVID-19 pandemic: An analysis of data from an international longitudinal survey

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately impacted Latin America (LATAM), significantly disrupting cardiovascular testing. This study evaluated cardiac procedure recovery in LATAM one year after the outbreak.

Methods

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) surveyed 669 centers in 107 countries worldwide, including 135 facilities in 19 LATAM countries, to assess cardiovascular procedure volumes in March 2019, April 2020, and April 2021, and changes in center practices and staffing conditions one year into the COVID-19 pandemic.

Findings

LATAM centers reported a 21 % decrease in procedure volumes in April 2021 from pre-pandemic-baseline, vs. a 0 % change in the rest of the world (RoW), and greater volume reductions for almost all procedure types. Centers in Central America and Mexico reported the largest procedure reductions (47 % reduction) compared to the Caribbean (15 %), and South America (14 %, p = 0.01), and this LATAM region was a significant predictor of lower procedure recovery in multivariable regression. More LATAM centers reported reduced salaries and increased layoffs of clinical staff compared to RoW, and LATAM respondents estimated that half of physician and non-physician staff experienced excess psychological stress related to the pandemic, compared to 25 % and 30 % in RoW (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Cardiovascular testing recovery in LATAM trailed behind RoW for most procedure types, with centers in Central America and Mexico reporting the greatest volume reductions. This study found lasting impacts of COVID-19 on cardiovascular care in LATAM and the need for mental health support for LATAM healthcare workers in current and future pandemics.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

In May 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 40% of worldwide COVID-19-related deaths at the time. This high disease burden was a result of the unique circumstances in LAC.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to (1) measure whether the pandemic was expanding or contracting in LAC when the WHO declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide, with a focus on prevention policies, a historical context for the course of the pandemic in the region.

METHODS

In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern (VOCs). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we conducted a 1-sided t test for whether the regional weekly speed (rate of novel COVID-19 transmission) was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the period from August 2020 to May 2023.

RESULTS

The speed of pandemic spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 6 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant for the 120-day period ending on the week of May 5, 2023, the coefficients were relatively modest in magnitude (0.457 and 0.491, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any change in this clustering effect of cases on future cases. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant VOC in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed=10 became entirely insignificant from January 2023 onward.

CONCLUSIONS

Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in LAC, surveillance data suggest COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, the region experienced a high COVID-19 burden in the early stages of the pandemic, and prevention policies should be an immediate focus in future pandemics. Ahead of vaccination development, these policies can include widespread testing of individuals and an epidemiological task force with a contact-tracing system.

Capacity for the management of kidney failure in the International Society of Nephrology North America and the Caribbean region: report from the 2023 ISN Global Kidney Health Atlas (ISN-GKHA)

The International Society of Nephrology Global Kidney Health Atlas charts the availability and capacity of kidney care globally. In the North America and the Caribbean region, the Atlas can identify opportunities for kidney care improvement, particularly in Caribbean countries where structures for systematic data collection are lacking. In this third iteration, respondents from 12 of 18 countries from the region reported a 2-fold higher than global median prevalence of dialysis and transplantation, and a 3-fold higher than global median prevalence of dialysis centers. The peritoneal dialysis prevalence was lower than the global median, and transplantation data were missing from 6 of the 10 Caribbean countries. Government-funded payments predominated for dialysis modalities, with greater heterogeneity in transplantation payor mix. Services for chronic kidney disease, such as monitoring of anemia and blood pressure, and diagnostic capability relying on serum creatinine and urinalyses were universally available. Notable exceptions in Caribbean countries included non-calcium-based phosphate binders and kidney biopsy services. Personnel shortages were reported across the region. Kidney failure was identified as a governmental priority more commonly than was chronic kidney disease or acute kidney injury. In this generally affluent region, patients have better access to kidney replacement therapy and chronic kidney disease-related services than in much of the world. Yet clear heterogeneity exists, especially among the Caribbean countries struggling with dialysis and personnel capacity. Important steps to improve kidney care in the region include increased emphasis on preventive care, a focus on home-based modalities and transplantation, and solutions to train and retain specialized allied health professionals.

A proposed analytical approach to estimate excess daily mortality rates in Ecuador

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has proved deadly all over the globe; however, one of the most lethal outbreaks occurred in Ecuador.

Aims

This study aims to highlight the pandemic's impact on the most affected countries worldwide in terms of excess deaths per capita and per day.

Methods

An ecological study of all-cause mortality recorded in Ecuador was performed. To calculate the excess deaths relative to the historical average for the same dates in 2017, 2018, and 2019, we developed a bootstrap method based on the central tendency measure of mean. A Poisson fitting analysis was used to identify trends on officially recorded all-cause deaths and COVID-19 deaths. A bootstrapping technique was used to emulate the sampling distribution of our expected deaths estimator μ ⌢ d e a t h s by simulating the data generation and model fitting processes daily since the first confirmed case.

Results

In Ecuador, during 2020, 115,070 deaths were reported and 42,453 were cataloged as excess mortality when compared to 2017-2019 period. Ecuador is the country with the highest recorded excess mortality in the world within the shortest timespan. In one single day, Ecuador recorded 1,120 deaths (6/100,000), which represents an additional 408% of the expected fatalities.

Conclusion

Adjusting for population size and time, the hardest-hit country due to the COVID-19 pandemic was Ecuador. The mortality excess rate shows that the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread rapidly in Ecuador, especially in the coastal region. Our results and the proposed new methodology could help to address the real situation of the number of deaths during the initial phase of pandemics.

COVID-19 vaccination plans in Latin America and the Caribbean: a multi-country comparative analysis of prioritization strategies

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to synthesize and compare the prioritization strategies outlined in the national vaccination plans (NVPs) against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) developed by countries in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a comparative policy analysis based on COVID-19 NVPs.

METHODS

We conducted a search strategy in three stages to identify NVPs for COVID-19 across 41 countries/territories in the LAC region. Sources included official governmental repositories, complementary Google searches, and less formal documentation. We extracted key variables and conducted a comparative policy analysis based on the prioritization criteria and specific prioritization groups.

RESULTS

The study identified 52 NVPs for COVID-19, corresponding to 27 (65.8 %) out of 41 countries/territories in the LAC region. Official national websites yielded documents for 12 countries. All NVPs included frontline healthcare personnel in the first prioritization phase/stage, whilst some included residents of long-term healthcare facilities, adults aged 60 years or more, and people with disabilities. The decision criteria for prioritization were declared in 14 countries/territories. Ethical considerations declared in five NVPs included human welfare, equality, solidarity, equity, and social justice as values.

CONCLUSION

The early stages of vaccination rollout in LAC countries prioritized protection of the healthcare system and epidemiological risk for severe disease. Few countries included ethical considerations in their NVPs, and global inequities in vaccine access and distribution led to varied protections for vulnerable populations across LAC. This analysis highlights the need for improved emergency-response capacity, planning, and enhanced multilateral cooperation in the LAC region for future public health emergencies.

COVID-19 epidemic in Panama

Objective

It is necessary to establish the evolution that the pandemic has had in Panama by weeks and months and to clearly establish the existence of surges or peaks, according to cases and deaths and the relationship with age groups.

Methodology

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by the Ministry of Health of Panama during the first 3 years of the epidemic (March 9, 2020, March 11, 2023). All cases were obtained from information provided by the Ministry of Health. We obtained daily information of the population at the national level reported as new cases, deaths, admission to hospitals, admission to intensive care units and by age groups. The information is classified by epidemiological week and by month from the diagnosis of the first case until March 2023.

Results

During the three years of the study, 1,032,316 cases of COVID-19 were registered in the Republic of Panama, and the number of deaths reported was 8,621, for a fatality rate of 0.83 % throughout that period. The number of deaths decreased over the 3 years of the pandemic; however, similar to the cases, there were periods of surges (peaks) per year in June/July and in December/January. The lethality progressively increased according to the age of the affected patients. During the first year, the lethality in those under 20 years of age was 0.05 %, and in those over 80 years old, it was 17.54 %. This pattern was maintained during the second year; however, there was a large decrease in all age groups.

Conclusion

the highest lethality rate in Panama occurred in the first year of the pandemic, with a great decrease in the third year; the impact of lethality is proportional to the age of the individual, with a high possibility of death in those over 80 years of age. During each pandemic year, there are two peaks (surges of new cases and deaths) per year, which are important times to take into account to generate strategies aimed at reducing the impact.

COVID-19 Disruption To Routine Health Care Services: How 8 Latin American And Caribbean Countries Responded

Latin America and the Caribbean was one of the regions hardest hit globally by SARS-CoV-2. This qualitative exploratory study examined how the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the delivery of routine health services from the perspective of health care system decision makers and managers. Between May and December 2022, we conducted forty-two semistructured interviews with decision makers from ministries of health and health care managers with responsibilities during the COVID-19 pandemic in eight countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. On the basis of these interviews, we identified themes in three domains: impacts on the provision of routine health services, including postponed and forgone primary care and hospital services; barriers to maintaining routine health services due to preexisting structural health care system weaknesses and difficulties attributed to the pandemic; and innovative strategies to sustain and recover services such as public-private financing and coordination, telemedicine, and new roles for primary care. In the short term, policy efforts should focus on recovering postponed services, including those for noncommunicable diseases. Medium- and long-term health care system reforms should strengthen primary care and address structural issues, such as fragmentation, to promote more resilient health care systems.

M, Armas R, de Mora D, Pinos J, Olmedo A, Salas R, Jimbo-Sotomayor R, Chiluisa C, Acosta P, Sánchez X, Whittembury A. Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in Ecuador: A test-negative design

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic poses a significant global health threat, characterized by high morbidity, severity, and the emergence of concerning variants. Latin America has been greatly affected, with high infection and mortality rates. Vaccination plays a crucial role in mitigating severe disease and controlling the pandemic. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing SARS-CoV-2 severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in hospitalized vaccination target groups in Ecuador.

Methods

This is a test-negative design study. We used data reported through sentinel surveillance of SARI between May 2021 and March 2022 in Ecuador. Patients with case criteria of SARI and hospitalized for a minimum of 24 hours were included in the study. Cases were defined as patients with SARI with a positive RT-qPCR test for SARS-CoV-2 and controls were those with a negative result. Information on vaccination status was obtained from the national vaccination registry, a valid dose of vaccination was considered when it was administered at least 14 days prior to symptom onset. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) (1-OR/OR) was calculated using a logistic regression.

Results

A total of 1,277 patients were included in the analysis of VE. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) in preventing hospitalization, adjusted for sex, age group, presence of one or more comorbidities, and period of the predominance of the omicron variant, was 44.5% for the partial primary schedule, 74.7% for the complete primary schedule, and 79.9% for the complete primary schedule plus booster doses. The aVE in avoiding ICU admissions was close to 80% with both the complete primary schedule and the booster doses, and in avoiding deaths, the aVE was 89% and 98%, respectively.

Conclusions

In Ecuador, COVID-19 vaccination prevents hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths. The effectiveness of the vaccines improves with more doses, offering increased protection across all age groups.

A systematic review of population and patient perspectives and experiences as measured in Latin American and Caribbean surveys

High-quality health systems must provide accessible, people-centred care to both improve health and maintain population trust in health services. Furthermore, accurate measurement of population perspectives is vital to hold health systems accountable and to inform improvement efforts. To describe the current state of such measures in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), we conducted a systematic review of facility and population-based assessments that included patient-reported experience and satisfaction measures. Five databases were searched for publications on quantitative surveys assessing healthcare quality in Spanish- or Portuguese-speaking LAC countries, focusing on the domains of processes of care and quality impacts. We included articles published since 2011 with a national sampling frame or inclusion of multiple subnational regions. We tabulated and described these articles, identifying, classifying and summarizing the items used to assess healthcare quality into the domains mentioned earlier. Of the 5584 publications reviewed, 58 articles met our inclusion criteria. Most studies were cross-sectional (95%), assessed all levels of healthcare (57%) and were secondary analyses of existing surveys (86%). The articles yielded 33 unique surveys spanning 12 LAC countries; only eight of them are regularly administered surveys. The most common quality domains assessed were satisfaction (in 33 out of 58 articles, 57%), evidence-based/effective care (34%), waiting times (33%), clear communication (33%) and ease of use (31%). Items and reported ratings varied widely among instruments used, time points and geographical settings. Assessment of patient-reported quality measures through population- and facility-based surveys is present but heterogeneous in LAC countries. Satisfaction was measured frequently, although its use in accountability or informing quality improvement is limited. Measurement of healthcare quality in LAC needs to be more systematic, regular, comprehensive and to be led collaboratively by researchers, governments and policymakers to enable comparison of results across countries and to effectively inform policy implementation.

Effects of COVID-19 Lockdown on Heart Failure Patients: A Quasi-Experimental Study

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 lockdown has been associated with reduced levels of physical activity, quality of life, and sleep quality, but limited evidence exists for its impact on heart failure patients. This study examined the influence of the COVID-19 lockdown on these aspects in heart failure patients, with specific comparisons by age and sex.

METHODS

A quasi-experimental cross-sectional study of patients with heart failure was conducted. The assessment involved two time points: during the COVID-19 lockdown (March to June 2020) and post-lockdown (July to October 2020). A total of 107 HF patients participated, with assessments of overall PA (using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire), QoL (employing the Cantril Ladder of Life), and sleep quality (utilizing the Minimal Insomnia Symptom Scale) conducted during and after the COVID-19 lockdown.

RESULTS

HF patients reported lower levels of total PA (p = 0.001) and walking PA (p < 0.0001) during lockdown than after lockdown, whilst no differences were observed in QoL nor sleep quality. In addition, both younger and older patients reported lower walking PA and total PA during lockdown than after lockdown, while older patients reported lower QoL during lockdown than after lockdown. Moreover, both men and women reported lower walking PA and total PA during lockdown than after lockdown, whilst women reported lower QoL.

CONCLUSIONS

HF patients need improved PA programs during lockdowns, as these programs can elevate PA levels and enhance QoL, especially when faced with the risk of decompensation during health crises.

Latin-American Registry of Cardiovascular Disease and COVID-19: Final Results

Background

Socioeconomic factors contribute to a more severe impact of COVID-19 in Latin American and Caribbean (LA&C) countries than in developed countries. Patients with a severe or critical illness can develop respiratory and cardiovascular complications.

Objective

To describe a LA&C population with COVID-19 to provide information related to this disease, in-hospital cardiovascular complications, and in-hospital mortality.

Methods

The CARDIO COVID-19-20 Registry is an observational, multicenter, prospective, and hospital-based registry of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection that required in-hospital treatment in LA&C. Enrollment of patients started on May 01, 2020, and ended on June 30, 2021.

Results

The CARDIO COVID-19-20 Registry included 3260 patients from 44 institutions of 14 LA&C countries. 63.2% patients were male and median age was 61.0 years old. Most common comorbidities were overweight/obesity (49.7%), hypertension (49.0%), and diabetes mellitus (26.7%). Most frequent cardiovascular complications during hospitalization or reported at discharge were cardiac arrhythmia (9.1%), decompensated heart failure (8.5%), and pulmonary embolism (3.9%). The number of patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) was 1745 (53.5%), and median length of their stay at the ICU was 10.0 days. Support required in ICU included invasive mechanical ventilation (34.2%), vasopressors (27.6%), inotropics (10.3%), and vasodilators (3.7%). Rehospitalization after 30-day post discharge was 7.3%. In-hospital mortality and 30-day post discharge were 25.5% and 2.6%, respectively.

Conclusions

According to our findings, more than half of the LA&C population with COVID-19 assessed required management in ICU, with higher requirement of invasive mechanical ventilation and vasoactive support, resulting in a high in-hospital mortality and a considerable high 30-day post discharge rehospitalization and mortality.

Early-Phase Perceptions of COVID-19's Impact on Ophthalmology Practice Patterns: A Survey from the Pan-American Association of Ophthalmology

Purpose

The COVID-19 pandemic affected medical practice worldwide due to interventions to prevent spreading. Its effect on ophthalmology practices in Latin America has not yet been explored. We aimed to assess the perceptions about the pandemic from countries' ophthalmological national and subspecialty retina societies affiliated to the Pan-American Association of Ophthalmology (PAAO).

Patients and Methods

A survey-based study of leaders of national ophthalmological and retinal societies was conducted. The survey was sent by email to 30 societies, from which 20 responded (12 countries, 66.6% response rate). It included closed- and open-ended questions about (1) operational capacity and precautions, (2) telemedicine and virtual care, (3) procedures, and (4) post-pandemic considerations.

Results

There was a marked decline in ophthalmology patient visits (80-95%) and elective surgeries (90%) during 2020 compared to before the pandemic. Precautions like temperature checks, mask usage, and social distancing were widely implemented while personal protective equipment (PPE) availability varied. Telemedicine use was limited due to lack of experience with it. Reopening plans focused on maintaining precautions and gradually resuming activities. Economic and security concerns were raised, and adherence to guidelines was emphasized. Respondents acknowledged the need to adapt to a "new normal". Long duration drugs, fewer imaging studies, and shorter wait times were preferred; however, availability of long duration drugs was limited.

Conclusion

The pandemic impacted ophthalmology in Latin America, with reduced patient visits, procedures, and surgeries. Delayed treatment and complications were likely the result of the pandemic.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against hospitalizations in Paraguay, May 2021-April 2022: A test-negative design

BACKGROUND

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates vary by population characteristics and circulating variants. North America and Europe have generated many COVID-19 VE estimates but relied heavily on mRNA vaccines. Fewer estimates are available for non-mRNA vaccines and from Latin America. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of several COVID-19 vaccines in preventing SARS-CoV-2-associated severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Paraguay from May 2021 to April 2022.

METHODS

Using sentinel surveillance data from four hospitals in Paraguay, we conducted a test-negative case-control study to estimate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against SARI by vaccine type/brand and period of SARS-CoV-2 variant predominance (Gamma, Delta, Omicron). We used multivariable logistic regression adjusting for month of symptom onset, age group, and presence of ≥1 comorbidity to estimate the odds of COVID-19 vaccination in SARS-CoV-2 test-positive SARI case-patients compared to SARS-CoV-2 test-negative SARI control-patients.

RESULTS

Of 4,229 SARI patients, 2,381 (56%) were SARS-CoV-2-positive case-patients and 1,848 (44%) were SARS-CoV-2-negative control-patients. A greater proportion of case-patients (73%; 95% CI: 71-75) than of control-patients (40%; 95% CI: 38-42) were unvaccinated. During the Gamma variant-predominant period, VE estimates for partial vaccination with mRNA vaccines and Oxford/AstraZeneca Vaxzevria were 90.4% (95% CI: 66.4-97.6) and 52.2% (95% CI: 25.0-69.0), respectively. During the Delta variant-predominant period, VE estimates for complete vaccination with mRNA vaccines, Oxford/AstraZeneca Vaxzevria, or Gamaleya Sputnik V were 90.4% (95% CI: 74.3-97.3), 83.2% (95% CI: 67.8-91.9), and 82.9% (95% CI: 53.0-95.2), respectively. The effectiveness of all vaccines declined substantially during the Omicron variant-predominant period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study contributes to our understanding of COVID-19 VE in Latin America and to global understanding of vaccines that have not been widely used in North America and Europe. VE estimates from Paraguay can parameterize models to estimate the impact of the national COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Paraguay and similar settings.

Resilient health systems for already resilient countries? Pandemic discourses in the post-COVID-19 era

This study aimed to reconstruct and analyze the discourses of the pandemic in the post-COVID-19 era. The methodology was based on a critical review of the scientific literature on the pandemic, selecting 80 non-biomedical, clinical, or pharmacological articles published in journals indexed in Scopus or Web of Science from a sample of the 500 most cited scientific articles on the pandemic in Google Scholar. The theoretical approach was based on the debates on predictability, unpredictability, determination, and indeterminacy in the health and social sciences. As a result, six theses on the pandemic were identified and analyzed: a) the thesis of the unpredictability of pandemics; b) the thesis of pandemic denial; c) the thesis of the pandemic as a failure in predictability systems; d) the thesis of the prevention of catastrophic events with timely interventions; e) the thesis of the structural postponement of predictive care by non-developed countries; and f) the environmentalist-health thesis, of foreseeing a critical phase for the planet and humanity. We concluded on the limits of resilience as the center in preparing Latin American health systems in the post-pandemic.

Crisis due to war: anxiety, depression and stress in the population of 13 Latin American countries

Sustainability may be at risk in a population that has altered health, according to Sustainable Development Goal 3 (SDG 3): Health and well-being. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine could jeopardize SDG 3, specifically the mental health of the population. The present study sought to determine the association between severe anxiety, depression and stress in population of 13 Latin American countries according to fear about the war conflict. It was a cross-sectional, analytical and multicenter study. Anxiety, depression and stress were measured with the DASS-21 test (Cronbach's Alpha: 0.97) and fear due to an armed crisis with a questionnaire already validated in Latin America (Cronbach's Alpha: 0.92), which was also adjusted for sex, age, education level and country of residence. Descriptive and analytical statistics were obtained. Of the 2,626 respondents, the main fear was that weapons of mass destruction would be used. In the multivariate models, strong associations were found between fear of a possible world-scale armed conflict and having severe or very severe levels of anxiety (aPR: 1.97; 95% CI: 1.64-2.36; value of p <0.001), depression (aPR: 1.91; 95% CI: 1.54-2.36; value of p <0.001) or stress (aPR: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.63-2.57; value of p <0.001). Sustainability linked to SDG 3, specifically mental health, is affected by this type of significant events, given the possible global war crisis that could trigger major events, even more so if added to the deterioration already experienced by COVID-19 in the Latin American region, insecurity and constant political uncertainty.

Factors associated with COVID-19 length of hospitalization and mortality during four epidemic waves, March 2020-November 2021, Suriname

Objectives

To determine the sociodemographic risk factors associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality in Suriname.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study. All registered deaths from COVID-19 in Suriname (n=1112) between March 13, 2020 and November 11, 2021 were included. Data were collected from medical records and included demographic variables and hospitalization duration of patients who died. Descriptive statistics, chi-squared tests, ANOVA models, and logistic regression analyses were used to determine associations between sociodemographic variables, length of hospitalization, and mortality during four epidemic waves.

Results

The case fatality rate over the study period was 22 per 1 000 population. The first epidemic wave was from July to August 2020, the second from December 2020 to January 2021, the third from May to June 2021, and the fourth from August to September 2021. Significant differences were found in the number of deaths and hospitalization duration by wave (p<0.001). Patients were more likely to have a longer hospitalization during the first (OR 1.66; 95% CI: 0.98, 2.82) and third waves (OR 2.37; 95% CI: 1.71, 3.28) compared with the fourth wave. Significant differences in mortality were also seen between ethnicities by wave (p=0.010). Compared with the mixed and other group, people of Creole ethnicity (OR 2.7; 95% CI: 1.33, 5.29) and Tribal people (OR 2.8; 95% CI: 1.12, 7.02) were more likely to die during the fourth wave than the third wave.

Conclusions

Tailored interventions are needed for males, people of Creole descent, Tribal and Indigenous peoples, and people older than 65 years.

Analysis of fatality impact and seroprevalence surveys in a community sustaining a SARS-CoV-2 superspreading event

There is an ongoing debate on the COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) and the impact of COVID-19 on overall population mortality. Here, we addressed these issues in a community in Germany with a major superspreader event analyzing deaths over time and auditing death certificates in the community.18 deaths that occurred within the first six months of the pandemic had a positive test for SARS-CoV-2. Six out of 18 deaths had non-COVID-19 related causes of death (COD). Individuals with COVID-19 COD typically died of respiratory failure (75%) and tended to have fewer reported comorbidities (p = 0.029). Duration between first confirmed infection and death was negatively associated with COVID-19 being COD (p = 0.04). Repeated seroprevalence essays in a cross-sectional epidemiological study showed modest increases in seroprevalence over time, and substantial seroreversion (30%). IFR estimates accordingly varied depending on COVID-19 death attribution. Careful ascertainment of COVID-19 deaths is important in understanding the impact of the pandemic.

Health and economic benefits of achieving contraceptive and maternal health targets in Small Island Developing States in the Pacific and Caribbean

INTRODUCTION

Reducing unmet need for modern contraception and expanding access to quality maternal health (MH) services are priorities for improving women's health and economic empowerment. To support investment decisions, we estimated the additional cost and expected health and economic benefits of achieving the United Nations targets of zero unmet need for modern contraceptive choices and 95% coverage of MH services by 2030 in select Small Island Developing States.

METHODS

Five Pacific (Kiribati, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu) and four Caribbean (Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica and Saint Lucia) countries were considered based on population survey data availability. For each country, the Lives Saved Tool was used to model costs, health outcomes and economic benefits for two scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) (coverage maintained) and coverage-targets-achieved, which scaled linearly from 2022 (following COVID-19 disruptions) coverage of evidence-based family planning and MH interventions to reach United Nations targets, including modern contraceptive methods and access to complete antenatal, delivery and emergency care. Unintended pregnancies, maternal deaths, stillbirths and newborn deaths averted by the coverage-targets-achieved scenario were converted to workforce, education and social economic benefits; and benefit-cost ratios were calculated.

RESULTS

The coverage-targets-achieved scenario required an additional US$12.6M (US$10.8M-US$15.9M) over 2020-2030 for the five Pacific countries (15% more than US$82.4M to maintain BAU). This additional investment was estimated to avert 126 000 (40%) unintended pregnancies, 2200 (28%) stillbirths and 121 (29%) maternal deaths and lead to a 15-fold economic benefit of US$190.6M (US$67.0M-US$304.5M) by 2050. For the four Caribbean countries, an additional US$17.8M (US$15.3M-US$22.4M) was needed to reach the targets (4% more than US$405.4M to maintain BAU). This was estimated to avert 127 000 (23%) unintended pregnancies, 3600 (23%) stillbirths and 221 (25%) maternal deaths and lead to a 24-fold economic benefit of US$426.2M (US$138.6M-US$745.7M) by 2050.

CONCLUSION

Achieving full coverage of contraceptive and MH services in the Pacific and Caribbean is likely to have a high return on investment.

Outpatient purchasing patterns of hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin in the USA and Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time series analysis from 2016 to 2021

BACKGROUND

Hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin received widespread attention after initial studies suggested that they were effective against COVID-19. However, several of these studies were later discredited.

OBJECTIVES

We explored the impact of scientific articles, public announcements and social media posts on hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin purchases in the USA and Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective, population-based time series analysis of retail hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin purchases in the USA and Canada from February 2016 through to December 2021, using IQVIA's Multinational Integrated Data Analysis database. We fitted the purchasing rates with interventional autoregressive integrated moving average models. We used Google Trends to identify the most influential interventions to include in the models.

RESULTS

There were significant pulse increases in hydroxychloroquine purchases in March 2020 in both the USA (P < 0.0001) and Canada (P < 0.0001). For ivermectin, there were no significant changes in April 2020 in either the USA (P = 0.41) or Canada (P = 0.16); however, significant pulse increases occurred from December 2020 to January 2021 in both the USA (P = 0.0006) and Canada (P < 0.0001), as well as significant ramp increases from April to August 2021 in both the USA (P < 0.0001) and Canada (P = 0.02). The increases in ivermectin purchases were larger in the USA than in Canada.

CONCLUSIONS

Increases in hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin purchasing rates aligned with controversial scientific articles and social media posts. This highlights the importance of scientific integrity and disseminating accurate epidemiologic information during pandemics.

Job Insecurity According to the Mental Health of Workers in 25 Peruvian Cities during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The pandemic brought various problems among workers, one of them being job insecurity, since many lost their jobs and others had the possibility of being fired, which could influence their mental health. The aim of this analytical cross-sectional study was to determine the relationship between job insecurity and mental health among workers in 25 Peruvian cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Previously validated surveys were used to inquire about job insecurity and three mental health disorders (depression, anxiety, and stress) as well as other variables. Of the 1855 workers, 14% had moderate or higher levels of stress, 30% had anxiety, and 16% had depression. Having had job insecurity was associated with moderate or higher levels of depression (RPa: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.51–1.94; p-value < 0.001), anxiety (RPa: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.25–1.64; p-value < 0.001), and stress (RPa: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.41–2.22; p-value < 0.001). Depression was also associated with having been fired during the pandemic and associated with eight professions. Anxiety was associated with being a man and having been fired, while stress was associated with three professions. There is a clear association between having job insecurity and suffering from the three mental pathologies evaluated, which highlights the importance of assessing the mental impact.

Description of a One-Year Succession of Variants of Interest and Concern of SARS-CoV-2 in Venezuela

Some of the lineages of SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus responsible for COVID-19, exhibit higher transmissibility or partial resistance to antibody-mediated neutralization and were designated by WHO as Variants of Interests (VOIs) or Concern (VOCs). The aim of this study was to monitor the dissemination of VOIs and VOCs in Venezuela from March 2021 to February 2022. A 614 nt genomic fragment was sequenced for the detection of some relevant mutations of these variants. Their presence was confirmed by complete genome sequencing, with a correlation higher than 99% between both methodologies. After the introduction of the Gamma VOC since the beginning of the year 2021, the variants Alpha VOC and Lambda VOI were detected as early as March 2021, at a very low frequency. In contrast, the Mu VOI, detected in May 2021, was able to circulate throughout the country. After the detection of the Delta VOC in June 2021, it became the predominant circulating variant. With the arrival of the Omicron VOC in December, this variant was able to displace the Delta one in less than one month.

Clinical Characteristics of Children With SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Hospital in Latin America

OBJECTIVE

COVID-19 infections have shown a different behavior in children than in adults. The objective of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics and severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pediatric patients seen at a reference hospital in Colombia.

METHOD

A descriptive, observational study in patients under the age of 18 years with a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 infection (RT-PCR or antigen) between April 2020 and March 2021. Multiple variables were studied, including demographic data, clinical characteristics, lab measurements, treatments administered, intensive care unit admission, and mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 361 patients were included of whom 196 (54%) were males. The median age was 3 years. Of all the patients, 65 (18%) were asymptomatic. The majority of patients had no comorbidities (n = 225, 76%). In those who were symptomatic (n = 296, 82%), the most frequent complaints were fever (n = 178, 60%), nasal congestion (n = 164, 55%) and cough (n = 149, 50%). Chest x-rays were normal in 73 patients (50%). When abnormalities were found, interstitial (29%) and alveolar (12%) patterns were the most prevalent. One hundred and fifty-seven children (53%) required general ward hospitalization, and 24 patients (8%) required pediatric intensive care admission. The global mortality was 0.8% (3 patients).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of cases were asymptomatic or mild. However, a significant percentage of patients required general ward admission, and some even required intensive care. The main symptom of COVID-19 infections in newborns was apnea. A second COVID-19 RT-PCR may be necessary to detect infections in critically ill patients with a high clinical suspicion of the disease if an initial test was negative.