Epidemiology of Foot and Mouth Disease in Ethiopia: a Retrospective Analysis of District Level Outbreaks, 2007-2012

A unified Foot and Mouth Disease dataset for Uganda: evaluating machine learning predictive performance degradation under varying distributions

In Uganda, the absence of a unified dataset for constructing machine learning models to predict Foot and Mouth Disease outbreaks hinders preparedness. Although machine learning models exhibit excellent predictive performance for Foot and Mouth Disease outbreaks under stationary conditions, they are susceptible to performance degradation in non-stationary environments. Rainfall and temperature are key factors influencing these outbreaks, and their variability due to climate change can significantly impact predictive performance. This study created a unified Foot and Mouth Disease dataset by integrating disparate sources and pre-processing data using mean imputation, duplicate removal, visualization, and merging techniques. To evaluate performance degradation, seven machine learning models were trained and assessed using metrics including accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, recall, precision and F1-score. The dataset showed a significant class imbalance with more non-outbreaks than outbreaks, requiring data augmentation methods. Variability in rainfall and temperature impacted predictive performance, causing notable degradation. Random Forest with borderline SMOTE was the top-performing model in a stationary environment, achieving 92% accuracy, 0.97 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.94 recall, 0.90 precision, and 0.92 F1-score. However, under varying distributions, all models exhibited significant performance degradation, with random forest accuracy dropping to 46%, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to 0.58, recall to 0.03, precision to 0.24, and F1-score to 0.06. This study underscores the creation of a unified Foot and Mouth Disease dataset for Uganda and reveals significant performance degradation in seven machine learning models under varying distributions. These findings highlight the need for new methods to address the impact of distribution variability on predictive performance.

Economic losses due to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Ethiopian cattle

Ethiopia's cattle population is among the largest in Africa and is burdened by frequent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks. FMD is caused by several distinct and highly contagious viral strains that can result in acute disease in cattle, causing losses in productivity and impeding international trade. This economic simulation study considered four main sources of losses due to FMD in cattle: reduced milk yield, draft power yield, fertility, and increased mortality. Economic losses were estimated per case across age-sex strata in 89 Ethiopian administrative zones for the years 2010-2021 using a wide range of data to estimate distributions for 30 input variables in a series of Monte Carlo simulations. It was estimated that an average case of FMD in Ethiopian cattle results in losses (mean values reported followed 95 % confidence intervals in brackets) of US dollars (USD) 11 (USD 7-USD 16) per case. Losses resulting from an average outbreak were estimated to be USD 2300 (USD 1400-USD 3300), while national annual losses were estimated to be USD 0.9 Mil. (USD 0.2 Mil.-USD 2.3 Mil.). Per cow-year, based on a national cow population of approximately 39 Mil. head, these estimated annual losses are equivalent to losses of only USD 0.02 (USD 0.01-USD 0.06). Nationally, these losses were significantly less than previously estimated in the literature, with currently estimated losses more accurately reflecting the economic burden of FMD in Ethiopian cattle over the past decade. The relatively small estimated losses suggest that control efforts based on widespread vaccination in countries with primarily extensive cattle production systems, such as Ethiopia, are unlikely to be economically sound. Sensitivity analyses suggested losses would be far greater in intensive systems, and that certainty surrounding incidence rates is paramount to the formulation of economically sound animal healthpolicy in regions with endemic FMD.

A comparison of risk factor investigation and experts' opinion elicitation analysis for identifying foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) high-risk areas within the FMD protection zone of South Africa (2007-2016)

Foot-and-mouth disease is a controlled disease in accordance with the South African Animal Diseases Act (Act 35 of 1984). The country was classified by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) as having a FMD free zone without vaccination in 1996. However, this status was suspended in 2019 due to a FMD outbreak outside the controlled zones. FMD control in South Africa includes animal movement restrictions placed on cloven-hoofed species and products, prophylactic vaccination of cattle, clinical surveillance of susceptible species, and disease control fencing to separate livestock from wildlife reservoirs. The objectives of this study were to evaluate differences in identifying high-risk areas for FMD using risk factor and expert opinion elicitation analysis. Differences in risk between FMD introduction and FMD spread within the FMD protection zone with vaccination (PZV) of South Africa (2007-2016) were also investigated. The study was conducted in the communal farming area of the FMD PZV, which is adjacent to wildlife reserves and characterised by individual faming units. Eleven risk factors that were considered important for FMD occurrence and spread were used to build a weighted linear combination (WLC) score based on risk factor data and expert opinion elicitation. A multivariable conditional logistic regression model was also used to calculate predicted probabilities of a FMD outbreak for all dip-tanks within the study area. Smoothed Bayesian kriged maps were generated for 11 individual risk factors, overall WLC scores for FMD occurrence and spread and for predicted probabilities of a FMD outbreak based on the conditional logistic regression model. Descriptively, vaccine matching was believed to have a great influence on both FMD occurrence and spread. Expert opinion suggested that FMD occurrence was influenced predominantly by proximity to game reserves and cattle density. Cattle populations and vaccination practices were considered most important for FMD spread. Highly effective cattle inspections were observed within areas that previously reported FMD outbreaks, indicating the importance of cattle inspection (surveillance) as a necessary element of FMD outbreak detection. The multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis, which was consistent with expert opinion elicitation; identified three factors including cattle population density (OR 3.87, 95% CI 1.47-10.21) and proximities to game reserve fences (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73-0.92) and rivers (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07) as significant factors for reported FMD outbreaks. Regaining and maintaining an FMD-free status without vaccination requires frequent monitoring of high-risk areas and designing targeted surveillance.

Spatiotemporal analysis of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in cattle and small ruminants in Türkiye between 2010 and 2019

Determining the dynamics associated with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks is important for being able to develop effective strategic plans against the disease. In this direction, spatiotemporal analysis of FMD virus (FMDV) epidemic data that occurred in Türkiye between 2010 and 2019 was carried out. Spatiotemporal analysis was performed by the space-time scan statistic using data from a total of 7,796 FMD outbreaks. Standard deviational ellipse analysis (SDE) was performed to analyse the directional trend of FMD. Five, six, and three significant and high-risk clusters were identified by the space-time cluster analysis for serotypes A, O, and Asia-1, respectively. The SDE analysis indicated that direction of FMD transmission was northeast to southwest. A significant decrease in the number of outbreaks and cases were observed between 2014 and 2019 compared to 2010-2013 (p = 0.010). Most of the serotype A, serotype O, and serotype Asia-1 associated FMD outbreaks were observed during the dry season (April to September). Among FMD cases, cattle and small ruminants accounted for 80.75% (180,932 cases) and 19.25% (43,116 cases), respectively. Among the serotypes detected in the cases, the most frequently detected serotype was serotype O (50.84%), followed by serotypes A (35.67%) and Asia-1 (13.49%). The results obtained in this study may contribute to when and where control programs could be implemented more efficiently for the prevention and control of FMD. Developing risk-defined regional control plans by taking into account the current livestock production including uncontrolled animal movements in border regions, rural livestock, livestock trade between provinces are recommended.

A review of foot-and-mouth disease in Ethiopia: epidemiological aspects, economic implications, and control strategies

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a contagious viral disease that affects the livelihoods and productivity of livestock farmers in endemic regions. It can infect various domestic and wild animals with cloven hooves and is caused by a virus belonging to the genus Aphthovirus and family Picornaviridae, which has seven different serotypes: A, O, C, SAT1, SAT2, SAT3, and Asia-1. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the molecular epidemiology, economic impact, diagnosis, and control measures of FMD in Ethiopia in comparison with the global situation. The genetic and antigenic diversity of FMD viruses requires a thorough understanding for developing and applying effective control strategies in endemic areas. FMD has direct and indirect economic consequences on animal production. In Ethiopia, FMD outbreaks have led to millions of USD losses due to the restriction or rejection of livestock products in the international market. Therefore, in endemic areas, disease control depends on vaccinations to prevent animals from developing clinical disease. However, in Ethiopia, due to the presence of diverse antigenic serotypes of FMD viruses, regular and extensive molecular investigation of new field isolates is necessary to perform vaccine-matching studies to evaluate the protective potential of the vaccine strain in the country.

Outbreak investigation of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle in Tigray region, Northern Ethiopia

An investigation of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak was conducted between late October and mid-December 2019 in Tigray region. The outbreak investigation team collected epidemiological data from the six villages of Kafta Humera and Seharti Samre districts, including morbidity proportions, mortality proportions, and clinical signs, and cattle management and vaccination history were collected via participatory methods, including interviews and group discussions with local experts and farmers in Kafta Humera and reports from the district veterinarians in Seharti Samre. Twenty-two tissue samples were collected for laboratory confirmation. Overall, 4,299/9,811 (43.8%) and 13,654/16,921 (80.6%) cattle showed clinical signs for FMD in Kafta Humera and Seharti Samre, respectively. In Kafta Humera, the highest morbidity proportion was found in adult cows and heifers (48.1%), followed by 27.8% in oxen and 15.9% in calves. In Seharti Samre, the morbidity proportion was similar in all age groups at ~81%. No death of FMD-suspected cattle was reported throughout the outbreak. The serotype of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) identified by laboratory analysis differed between the two districts (serotype O in Kafta Humera and serotype A in Seharti Samre). We, therefore, suggest that the outbreaks in the two districts occurred independently from each other. Experts and farmers were interviewed and believed that the outbreak in Kafta Humera was most likely caused by interaction between cattle and wildlife from the surrounding Kafta Sheraro National Park, which share common grazing land. This outbreak investigation showed that FMD can cause devastating cattle morbidity. A regular vaccination program against the identified circulating FMDV serotypes with sufficient coverage is required to avoid future outbreaks.

Epidemiological study and dairy farmers' knowledge, attitudes, and practices on foot and mouth disease in central Ethiopia

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is consistently ranked as the most economically significant viral disease and one of the top five livestock diseases in Ethiopia. Although FMD is endemic in Ethiopia, the epidemiology and the farmers' knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding FMD were poorly quantified. Thus, a cross-sectional study was conducted from November 2021 to April 2022 to estimate the seroprevalence, identify the FMD serotypes, and assess the farmers' knowledge, attitudes, and practices on FMD in Addis Ababa city and Sebeta special zone, central Ethiopia. A total of 384 serum samples were collected from cattle and tested using a 3ABC enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In this study, an overall 56% seroprevalence was recorded. Two types of FMD serotypes were detected in which serotype O was the dominant serotype (75.5%) followed by serotype A (45.5%). A significantly higher seroprevalence (P = 0.00) was recorded in Addis Ababa (85%) compared to Sebeta (28.7%). Seropositivity in older and semi-intensively managed cattle was 2.9 (95% CI: 1.36-6.50; P = 0.006) and 2.1 (95% CI: 1.34-3.26; P = 0.001) times higher compared to young and intensively managed cattle, respectively. A survey on knowledge, attitude, and practice of 103 farmers revealed that 90.2% knew of FMD and the majority of them can recognize its clinical pictures. However, 12.7% of farmers who knew FMD didn't practice any prevention methods. Additionally, 70% of the farmers responded that their cattle roamed outside of their farms for communal grazing, watering, breeding purposes, and vaccination which might put them more at risk of FMD. The current study demonstrated that the majority of farmers have gaps in biosecurity practices and vaccination of cattle against FMD. Therefore, educating farmers on FMD prevention measures is necessary for successful disease control programs.

Factors associated with foot-and-mouth disease seroprevalence in small ruminants and identification of hot-spot areas in northern Nigeria

Many small ruminants infected with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) remain asymptomatic, with the capacity to promote silent viral spread within domestic and wildlife species. However, little is known about the epidemiological role played by small ruminants in FMD. In particular, there are few studies that examine FMD seroprevalence, spatial patterns and risk factors for exposure in small ruminants. A cross-sectional study was conducted in northern Nigeria (Bauchi, Kaduna, and Plateau States) to determine the true seroprevalence of FMD in backyard small ruminants, identify factors associated with FMD seroconversion at animal and household levels, and identify spatial patterns for FMD virus exposure. Data on animal (n = 1800) and household (n = 300) characteristics were collected using a standardised questionnaire. Sera samples from 1800 small ruminants were tested for antibodies against non-structural proteins of FMD virus. True seroprevalence was estimated stochastically to account for variability and uncertainty in the test sensitivity and specificity previously reported. Risk factors for FMD seropositivity were identified at animal and household levels and spatial patterns were determined. The overall true seroprevalence for FMD virus, in the small ruminant population tested, was estimated to be 10.2 % (95 % Credible Interval (CrI) 0.0-19.0), while State-level estimates were 17.3 % (95 % CrI 0.0-25.8) for Kaduna, 6.9 % (95% CrI 0.0-15.8) for Bauchi, and 3.6 % (95 % CrI 0.0-12.6) for Plateau. State and species were the main risk factors identified at animal level, with interaction detected between them. Compared to goats in Plateau, the odds of testing positive were higher for goats in Bauchi (Odds Ratio (OR)= 1.83, 95 % CI 1.13-2.97, p = 0.01) and Kaduna (OR=2.97, 95 % CI 1.89-4.67, p < 0.001), as well as for sheep in Plateau (OR=3.78, 95 % CI 2.08-6.87, p < 0.001), Bauchi (OR=1.61, 95 % CI 0.91-2.84, p = 0.10), and Kaduna (OR=3.11, 95 % CI 1.61-6.01, p = 0.001). Households located in Kaduna were more likely to have a higher number of seropositive SR compared to those in Plateau (Prevalence Ratio (PR)= 1.75, 95 % CI 1.30-2.36, p < 0.001), and households keeping sheep flocks were more likely to be seropositive (from 1 to 10 sheep: PR=1.39, 95 % CI 1.05-1.82, p = 0.02; more than 10 sheep: PR=1.55, 95 % CI 1.12-2.15, p = 0.008) compared to those that did not keep sheep. A hot-spot was detected in Kaduna, and a cold-spot in Plateau. These results reveal that small ruminants had been recently exposed to FMD virus with spatial heterogeneity across the study area.

A scoping review of foot-and-mouth disease risk, based on spatial and spatio-temporal analysis of outbreaks in endemic settings

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most important transboundary animal diseases affecting livestock and wildlife species worldwide. Sustained viral circulation, as evidenced by serological surveys and the recurrence of outbreaks, suggests endemic transmission cycles in some parts of Africa, Asia and the Middle East. This is the result of a complex process in which multiple serotypes, multi-host interactions and numerous socio-epidemiological factors converge to facilitate disease introduction, survival and spread. Spatial and spatio-temporal analyses have been increasingly used to explore the burden of the disease by identifying high-risk areas, analysing temporal trends and exploring the factors that contribute to the outbreaks. We systematically retrieved spatial and spatial-temporal studies on FMD outbreaks to summarize variations on their methodological approaches and identify the epidemiological factors associated with the outbreaks in endemic contexts. Fifty-one studies were included in the final review. A high proportion of papers described and visualized the outbreaks (72.5%) and 49.0% used one or more approaches to study their spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal aggregation. The epidemiological aspects commonly linked to FMD risk are broadly categorizable into themes such as (a) animal demographics and interactions, (b) spatial accessibility, (c) trade, (d) socio-economic and (e) environmental factors. The consistency of these themes across studies underlines the different pathways in which the virus is sustained in endemic areas, with the potential to exploit them to design tailored evidence based-control programmes for the local needs. There was limited data linking the socio-economics of communities and modelled FMD outbreaks, leaving a gap in the current knowledge. A thorough analysis of FMD outbreaks requires a systemic view as multiple epidemiological factors contribute to viral circulation and may improve the accuracy of disease mapping. Future studies should explore the links between socio-economic and epidemiological factors as a foundation for translating the identified opportunities into interventions to improve the outcomes of FMD surveillance and control initiatives in endemic contexts.

Epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Thailand from 2011 to 2018

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most important animal diseases hindering livestock production in Thailand. In this study, a temporal and spatial analysis at the subdistrict level was performed on FMD outbreak reports in Thailand from 2011 to 2018. Risk factors associated with FMD outbreaks were furthermore investigated using generalized estimating equations. The results showed that the incidence of FMD outbreaks was the highest in 2016 and was affected by season, with a peak in FMD outbreaks occurring in the rainy-winter season, during October to December. FMD outbreaks were mostly distributed in small clusters within a few subdistricts. Some high-risk areas with repeated outbreaks were detected in the central regions. Risk factors, including the increase of subdistrict's size of the dairy population, beef population or pig population, the low percentage of forest area, subdistricts in the provinces adjacent to Malaysia, the presence of a livestock market and the occurrence of an FMD outbreak in a neighbouring subdistrict in the previous month significantly increased the odds of having an FMD outbreak. The increase in proximity to the nearest subdistrict with an FMD outbreak in the previous month decreased the odds of having FMD outbreaks. This study helped to identify high-risk areas and periods of FMD outbreaks in Thailand. Together with the identified risk factors, its results can be used to optimize the FMD control programme in Thailand and in other countries having a similar livestock industry and FMD situation.

Temporal and Spatial Patterns and a Space-Time Cluster Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Ethiopia from 2010 to 2019

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an endemic disease in Ethiopia, although space-time cluster and monthly variation studies have never been assessed at national level. The current study aimed to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of FMD outbreaks in Ethiopia from national outbreak reports over a period of ten years from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2019. To this end, a total of 376,762 cases and 1302 outbreaks from 704 districts were obtained from the Minister of Agriculture for analyses. In general, the dry periods, i.e., October to March, of the year were recorded as the peak outbreak periods, with the highest prevalence in March 2012. The monthly average and the outbreak trends over ten years show a decrease of outbreaks from 2010 to 2019. Decomposing the FMD outbreak data time series showed that once an outbreak erupted, it continued for up to five years. Only 12% of the reported outbreaks were assigned to a specific serotype. Within these outbreaks, the serotypes O, A, SAT-2, and SAT-1 were identified in decreasing order of prevalence, respectively. When a window of 50% for the maximum temporal/space cluster size was set, a total of seven FMD clusters were identified in space and time. The primary cluster with a radius of 380.95 km was identified in the southern part of Ethiopia, with a likelihood ratio of 7.67 (observed/expected cases). The third cluster, with a radius of 144.14 km, was identified in the northeastern part of the country, and had a likelihood ratio of 5.66. Clusters 1 and 3 occurred from January 2017 to December 2019. The second cluster that occurred had a radius of 294.82 km, a likelihood ratio of 6.20, and was located in the central and western parts of Ethiopia. The sixth cluster, with a radius of 36.04 km and a likelihood ratio of 20.60, was set in southern Tigray, bordering Afar. Clusters 2 and 6 occurred in the same period, from January 2014 to December 2016. The fourth cluster in northern Tigray had a calculated radius of 95.50 km and a likelihood ratio of 1.17. The seventh cluster occurred in the north-central Amhara region, with a radius of 97 km and a likelihood ratio of 1.16. Clusters 4 and 7 occurred between January 2010 and December 2013. The spatiotemporal and cluster analysis of the FMD outbreaks identified in the context of the current study are crucial in implementing control, prevention, and a prophylactic vaccination schedule. This study pointed out October to March as well as the main time of the year during which FMD outbreaks occur. The area that extends from the south to north, following the central highlands, is the main FMD outbreak area in Ethiopia.

Time-Series Analysis for the Number of Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak Episodes in Cattle Farms in Thailand Using Data from 2010-2020

Thailand is one of the countries where foot and mouth disease outbreaks have resulted in considerable economic losses. Forecasting is an important warning technique that can allow authorities to establish an FMD surveillance and control program. This study aimed to model and forecast the monthly number of FMD outbreak episodes (n-FMD episodes) in Thailand using the time-series methods, including seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), error trend seasonality (ETS), neural network autoregression (NNAR), and Trigonometric Exponential smoothing state−space model with Box−Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS), and hybrid methods. These methods were applied to monthly n-FMD episodes (n = 1209) from January 2010 to December 2020. Results showed that the n-FMD episodes had a stable trend from 2010 to 2020, but they appeared to increase from 2014 to 2020. The outbreak episodes followed a seasonal pattern, with a predominant peak occurring from September to November annually. The single-technique methods yielded the best-fitting time-series models, including SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12, NNAR(3,1,2)12,ETS(A,N,A), and TBATS(1,{0,0},0.8,{<12,5>}. Moreover, SARIMA-NNAR and NNAR-TBATS were the hybrid models that performed the best on the validation datasets. The models that incorporate seasonality and a non-linear trend performed better than others. The forecasts highlighted the rising trend of n-FMD episodes in Thailand, which shares borders with several FMD endemic countries in which cross-border trading of cattle is found common. Thus, control strategies and effective measures to prevent FMD outbreaks should be strengthened not only in Thailand but also in neighboring countries.

Sero-epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease in Darfur area, Western Sudan

A total of 367 bovine sera positive to antibodies against non-structural proteins (NSPs) of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus were screened for serotype O, A and SAT2 antibodies using the virus neutralization test (VNT). Sera had been collected in 2016 from North (228) and South (139) Darfur States in Western Sudan, where high and low circulation of FMD virus, respectively, prevailed. Tested sera represented the positive-NSPs portion in a random sample of 669 sera collected from both States. According to standard statistical methods, calculations for serial testing (NSPs ELISA and VNT) were applied to estimate prevalence rates of serotype-specific antibodies in the two States. In each State, approximately 20% of NSPs positive sera failed typing. Prevalence's detected were 49% ± 5% (O), 27% ± 5% (A) and 14% ± 4% (SAT2) in North Darfur State and 27% ± 5% (O), 17% ± 4% (A) and 8.0% ± 3% (SAT2) in South Darfur State. In both States, prevalence rates were significantly higher for serotype O, followed by A then SAT2; the same order that was known in most parts of Sudan. Consistently, estimated prevalence's were statistically significantly higher (P < 0.05) in North Darfur than in South Darfur State. Apart from serotype SAT2, detected prevalence rates were lower or similar to those inside the country in previous occasions. Frequency and pattern of distribution of serotype O prevalence were consistent with its suggested pattern of circulation from the Nile valley to other parts in Sudan and significant within the country's circulation. Alternatively, serotype SAT2 prevalence and distribution in Darfur area were suggestive of sporadic occurrence. However, slightly higher prevalence rates of SAT2 antibodies in Darfur than in neighbouring Kordofan areas in 2013 reflected the wide dissemination of SAT2 ( http://www.wrlfmd.org ) in Sudan in early 2014. Risk of FMD in Darfur seemed to be associated with the movement of animals to the North in the wet season as part of the pastoral system, and with movement related to trade into urban centers more than with pastoralism across the Western borders. Generally, the result presented little evidence to suggest presence of FMD primary endemic foci in Darfur area.

Vaccine matching and antigenic variability of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotypes O and A from 2018 Ethiopian isolates

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly infectious, limits live animal trade, and affects ranchers owing to the loss of animal yield. The present study was designed to perform vaccine matching for field FMD virus isolates from clinically diseased cattle and assess the antigenic properties of the field isolates against the current vaccine strains used for vaccine production at the National Veterinary Institute, Ethiopia. Both sequencing and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reactions were used for distinguishing between the viral strains. To evaluate the serological relationship of the vaccine strain with these field isolates (r1 value), in vitro cross-neutralization was performed using ETH/6/2000 and ETH/38/2005 antisera. Infectious field FMD viral samples represented serotypes A and O. Sequence analysis showed that serotype A VP1/1D possessed amino acid variability at positions 28 and 42 to 48, 138, 141, 142, 148, 156, 173, and 197 compared with the ETH/6/2000 vaccine strain, whereas serotype O possessed amino acid variability at positions 45, 48, 138, 139, 140, 141, and 197 compared with the ETH/38/2005 vaccine strain. Based on the one-dimensional virus neutralization test, serotypes A and O demonstrated antigenic matching of up to 13/17 (76.47%) with the vaccine strain, except for the isolates ETH/40/2018, ETH/48/2018, ETH/55/2018, and ETH/61/2018, which had r-values less than 0.3. Therefore, the currently used vaccine strains ETH/38/2005 for serotype O and ETH/6/2000 for serotype A protected against all and most field viruses characterized as serotypes O and A, respectively, and amino acid residue variation was observed in different FMD virus B-C loops, G-H loops, and C-termini of VP1 at sites 1 and 3 in both serotypes.

Serological detection and genetic characterization of foot-and-mouth disease virus from cattle in northern sudan, 2016‑2018

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Clinical FMD was confirmed as serotype O of an unnamed lineage within the topotype East Africa 3 (EA3).

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Unlike Western, Eastern, Central and Southern Sudan, no predominance of serotype O antibodies was detected in Northern Sudan.

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Sero-prevalence estimates of serotype-specific antibodies ranged between 15.4% (serotype A) in the River Nile State to 3.4% (serotype SAT2) in the Northern State.

Northern Sudan is an important corridor cluster between pools of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in East and North Africa. It involves almost the whole border area with Egypt and represents a considerable part of a projected disease-free zone in Sudan. The study monitored FMD infection between 2016 and 2018 in Northern Sudan. Clinical and serological surveillance were carried out. Results largely confirmed previous reports that have described the relatively lower circulation of FMDV in the area than in other parts of the country. Clinical FMD was confirmed, once in the three years period, as serotype O of an unnamed lineage within the topotype East Africa 3 (EA3). Using serial testing (the ID ELISA and virus neutralization test), sero-prevalence estimates of serotype-specific antibodies in the two States of Northern Sudan ranged between 15.4% (serotype A) in the River Nile State to 3.4% (serotype SAT2) in the Northern State. Striking disparities between patterns of FMD in Northern Sudan and the rest of Sudan were observed. Unlike Western, Eastern, Central and Southern Sudan, no predominance of serotype O antibodies was detected in Northern Sudan. Concurrently, a serotype O isolate from Northern Sudan in 2016 was found to be of transboundary nature circulating in East and North Africa and in the Middle East (nt. id. > 99%); like serotype O that caused the last episode of disease in Northern Sudan in 2012. Molecular findings were compatible with the inferred low circulation of FMDV in Northern Sudan. Elsewhere in Sudan, endogenous serotype O viruses seemed to be circulating more unabated. It was concluded that low animal density and limited animal movement in Northern Sudan together with the high antibody levels against serotype O in immediately neighbouring States (Khartoum and Kassala) effectively decreased infiltration of endogenous O viruses.

Prioritizing smallholder animal health needs in East Africa, West Africa, and South Asia using three approaches: Literature review, expert workshops, and practitioner surveys

Managing the health needs of livestock contributes to reducing poverty and improving the livelihoods of smallholder and pastoralist livestock keepers globally. Animal health practitioners, producers, policymakers, and researchers all must prioritize how to mobilize limited resources. This study employed three approaches to prioritize animal health needs in East and West Africa and South Asia to identify diseases and syndromes that impact livestock keepers. The approaches were a) systematic literature review, b) a series of expert workshops, and c) a practitioner survey of veterinarians and para-veterinary professionals. The top constraints that emerged from all three approaches include endo/ ectoparasites, foot and mouth disease, brucellosis, peste des petits ruminants, Newcastle disease, and avian influenza. Expert workshops additionally identified contagious caprine pleuropneumonia, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, mastitis, and reproductive disorders as constraints not emphasized in the literature review. Practitioner survey results additionally identified nutrition as a constraint for smallholder dairy and pastoralist small ruminant production. Experts attending the workshops agreed most constraints can be managed using existing veterinary technologies and best husbandry practices, which supports a shift away from focusing on individual diseases and new technologies towards addressing systemic challenges that limit access to veterinary services and inputs. Few research studies focused on incidence/ prevalence of disease and impact, suggesting better incorporation of socio-economic impact measures in future research would better represent the interests of livestock keepers.

Isolation, Serotyping, and Molecular Detection of Bovine FMD Virus from Outbreak Cases in Aba'ala District of Afar Region, Ethiopia

Background

On the basis of FMDV outbreak cases, a cross-sectional study was undertaken to collect samples from January 2019 to March 2020 intended for isolation, serotyping, and molecular detection of FMDV in the study district. The purposive sampling method was applied to select the study area for the reason of the presence of FMD outbreak case report during the study period. Totally, 27 FMD clinical samples were collected from affected study population during field outbreak. Out of 27 samples, 18 of them were inoculated on cultured Baby hamster kidney (BHK-21) monolayer cells, and all 27 samples were tested using conventional RT-PCR and sets of specific universal primers. Finally, the PCR products were visualized with UV illumination and imaged with gel documentation system.

Results

The current study results revealed that out of 18 clinical samples subjected to virus isolation, 72.2% (n = 13) of these cultures exhibited FMDV-induced cytopathic effect (CPE) and the identified serotype was SAT-2 FMD virus. Out of 27 clinical samples tested by conventional RT-PCR, only 12 FMDV samples were found to be FMDV positive by universal primers. Out of 27 samples detected by conventional RT-PCR, only 12 FMDV samples were found to be FMDV positive by universal primers.

Conclusions

Our study finding indicated that FMDV is prevalent in the study area and FMDV serotype SAT-2 was the causality for the outbreaks of the disease in the study area. Hence, region-wise FMD outbreak investigation, further phylogenetic analysis, and vaccine matching field isolates should be carried out for effective vaccine development to control the disease.

Molecular characterization of foot-and-mouth disease viruses circulating in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2019

One of the constraints to controlling foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in East Africa is the incomplete knowledge of the specific FMD virus (FMDV) strains circulating and the way in which these viruses move across countries in the region. This retrospective study focuses on Ethiopia, which has one of the largest FMD-susceptible livestock populations in Africa. Analyses of FMDV positive samples collected between 2008 and 2019 demonstrate that serotypes O (n = 175), A (n = 51) and SAT 2 (n = 33) were present in the country. Phylogenetic analysis of the VP1 sequences for these viruses showed that there were at least seven different FMD viral clades circulating during this period: O/EA-3, O/EA-4, A/AFRICA/G-I, A/AFRICA/G-IV, A/AFRICA/G-VII, SAT2/VII and SAT2/XIII. Although these results only represent a snapshot and might not reflect all FMDV lineages that were present, they highlight the importance of serotype O, as well as the complexity and co-existence of FMDV serotypes in Ethiopia and surrounding countries. These sequence data also support the idea that there are two FMDV ecosystems existing in East Africa. Data from retrospective studies, such as these presented here, will be beneficial for vaccine selection and vaccination campaigns to control FMDV within Ethiopia.

A randomized controlled field trial assessing foot and mouth disease vaccine effectiveness in Gondar Zuria district, Northwest Ethiopia

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly transmissible viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals, which is endemic in many developing countries. Vaccination is the main tool for FMD control in resource limited endemic countries like Ethiopia. Vaccine quality, which is often questionable in developing countries, is a critical element for effective disease control. The present study was aimed at evaluating the field effectiveness of a trivalent FMD vaccine (containing serotypes O, A and SAT 2), produced and widely used in Ethiopia, in terms of preventing clinical infection and severe disease. A randomized controlled field trial design was employed in the study in which the attack rate of clinical FMD infection in vaccinated cattle was compared with the attack rate in unvaccinated controls in cattle population of 16 villages in Gondar Zuria district, Northwest Ethiopia. The vaccine was administered as a single dose course in the face of an impending FMD outbreak and the trial groups were monitored for clinical infection until the end of the outbreak. The attack rate of clinical FMD 20 days post vaccination in the vaccinated cattle (34 %) was significantly lower than the attack rate in the unvaccinated controls (49 %) (p < 0.001). However, the effectiveness of the vaccine was only 31 % (95 %CI: 20-40 %). This vaccine effectiveness increased to 52 % ((95 %CI: 33-66 %) 42 days post vaccination. The proportion of severely affected cattle in the vaccinated group (5.7 %) was significantly lower than in the unvaccinated group (9.4 %) (p < 0.001), resulting in 39 % (95 %CI: 18-55 %) vaccine effectiveness against severe disease. Generally, the observed level of vaccine effectiveness was lower than the internationally recommended 75 % plus expected percentage of protection for a standard potency 3PD₅₀/dose FMD vaccine. Moreover, the level of effectiveness was insufficient to provide herd immunity to control the disease at the population level. Nevertheless, given the significant difference in the incidence of clinical disease and severity between vaccinated and unvaccinated cattle, it might still be worth using the current vaccine to reduce production losses associated with the disease provided it is cost effective and affordable for the farmers. Factors that cause low effectiveness of the vaccine need to be identified and addressed for effective control of the disease at population level.

Genetic Basis of Antigenic Variation of SAT3 Foot-And-Mouth Disease Viruses in Southern Africa

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) continues to be a major burden for livestock owners in endemic countries and a continuous threat to FMD-free countries. The epidemiology and control of FMD in Africa is complicated by the presence of five clinically indistinguishable serotypes. Of these the Southern African Territories (SAT) type 3 has received limited attention, likely due to its restricted distribution and it being less frequently detected. We investigated the intratypic genetic variation of the complete P1 capsid-coding region of 22 SAT3 viruses and confirmed the geographical distribution of five of the six SAT3 topotypes. The antigenic cross-reactivity of 12 SAT3 viruses against reference antisera was assessed by performing virus neutralization assays and calculating the r1-values, which is a ratio of the heterologous neutralizing titer to the homologous neutralizing titer. Interestingly, cross-reactivity between the SAT3 reference antisera and many SAT3 viruses was notably high (r1-values >0.3). Moreover, some of the SAT3 viruses reacted more strongly to the reference sera compared to the homologous virus (r1-values >1). An increase in the avidity of the reference antisera to the heterologous viruses could explain some of the higher neutralization titers observed. Subsequently, we used the antigenic variability data and corresponding genetic and structural data to predict naturally occurring amino acid positions that correlate with antigenic changes. We identified four unique residues within the VP1, VP2, and VP3 proteins, associated with a change in cross-reactivity, with two sites that change simultaneously. The analysis of antigenic variation in the context of sequence differences is critical for both surveillance-informed selection of effective vaccines and the rational design of vaccine antigens tailored for specific geographic localities, using reverse genetics.

A vaccine-matching assessment of different genetic variants of serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus isolated in Ethiopia between 2011 and 2014

The aim of this study was to assess the vaccine-matching and antigenic properties of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) isolates collected from Ethiopia between 2011 and 2014. Samples (n = 51) were collected from cattle and pigs with clinical signs consistent with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) on farms in Debre-Berhan, Debre-Zeit/Bishoftu, Sidamo, Mekelle, and Addis Ababa. Infectious FMDV was isolated using BHK-21 cell cultures from 38 of the 51 field samples (74.5%). All of these FMDV-positive samples were characterized as serotype O, belonging to two East Africa topotypes (EA-3 and EA-4), and their VP1-encoding sequences demonstrated amino acid sequence variability encompassing 27 positions in comparison to the vaccine strain (O/ETH/38/2005) currently provided by the National Veterinary Institute of Ethiopia. One-dimensional virus neutralization test (1 dm VNT) results showed that O/ETH/38/2005 was antigenically matched to 10 of the 16 serotype O viruses. These findings indicate that the O/ETH/38/2005 vaccine strain can provide protection against outbreaks caused by the O/EA-3 topotype, although poorer vaccine-matching results for the O/EA-4 topotype reinforce the importance of using a good-quality vaccine with high coverage in the susceptible herds with supporting post-vaccination serosurveillance to ensure that sufficient antibody titers are generated in the vaccinated animals.

Epidemiology and National Surveillance System for Foot and Mouth Disease in Cattle in Thailand during 2008-2019

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a prominent transboundary disease that threatens livestock production and can disrupt the trade in animals and animal products at both regional and international levels. The aims of this study were: (1) to analyze the distribution of FMD in Thailand during the period of 2008 to 2019, (2) to outline a national surveillance approach, and (3) to identify the existing knowledge gap that is associated with this disease in relation to cattle production. We analyzed FMD outbreak data in order to determine the existing spatial and temporal trends and reviewed relevant publications and official documents that helped us outline a national surveillance program. There were 1209 FMD outbreaks in cattle farms during the study period. FMD outbreaks occurred every year throughout the study period in several regions. Notably, FMD serotype O and A were considered the predominant types. The FMD National Strategic Plan (2008–2015) and the national FMD control program (2016–2023) have been implemented in order to control this disease. The surveillance approach employed by livestock authorities included both active and passive surveillance techniques. The vaccination program was applied to herds of cattle 2–3 times per year. Additionally, numerous control measures have been implemented across the country. We have identified the need for a study on the assessment of an applicable surveillance program, the evaluation of an appropriate vaccination strategy and an assessment of the effectiveness of a measured control policy. In conclusion, this study provided much needed knowledge on the epidemiology of FMD outbreaks across Thailand from 2008 to 2019. Additionally, we identified the need for future studies to address the existing knowledge gaps. The findings from this study may also be useful for livestock authorities and stakeholders to establish an enhanced control strategy and to implement an effective surveillance system that would control and eradicate FMD throughout the country.

Spatial and temporal distribution of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in Amhara region of Ethiopia in the period 1999 to 2016

Background

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an economically important trans-boundary viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. It is caused by FMD virus, which belongs to the genus Aphthovirus and family Picornaviridae. FMD is a well-established endemic disease in Ethiopia since it was first detected in 1957. This retrospective study was carried out to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of FMD outbreaks in Amhara region of Ethiopia using 18 years (January 1999–December 2016) reported outbreak data.

Results

A total of 636 FMD outbreaks were reported in Amhara region of Ethiopia between 1999 and 2016 with an average and median of 35 and 13 outbreaks per year respectively. In this period, FMD was reported at least once in 58.5% of the districts (n = 79) and in all administrative zones of the region (n = 10). The average district level incidence of FMD outbreaks was 4.68 per 18 years (0.26 per district year). It recurs in a district as epidemic, on average in 5.86 years period. The incidence differed between administrative zones, being the lowest in East Gojjam and highest in North Shewa. The occurrence of FMD outbreaks was found to be seasonal with peak outbreaks in March and a low in August. The long-term trend of FMD outbreaks indicates a slight, but statistically significant (p < 0.001) decrease over the study period.

Conclusion

FMD occurred in all zones of the region and showed statistically significant decrease in the long-term trend. Numbers of outbreaks were relatively higher during dry season. The spatial and temporal distribution identified in this study should be considered in controlling the disease. As unregulated and frequent animal movements are the likely causes of high outbreak occurrence during the dry season, animal movement regulations should be considered for the long-term control of FMD.

Retrospect and Risk Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in China Based on Integrated Surveillance and Spatial Analysis Tools

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock and seriously affects the development of animal husbandry. It is necessary to defend the spread of FMD. To explore the distribution characteristics and transmission of FMD between 2010 and 2017 in China, Global Moran's I test and Getis-Ord Gi index were used to analyze the spatial cluster. A space-time permutation scan statistic was applied to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern. GIS-based method was employed to create a map representing the distribution pattern, directional trend, and hotspots for each outbreak. The number of cases was defined as the number of animals with FMD for the above analysis. We also constructed a phylogenetic tree to compare the homology and variation of FMD virus (FMDV) to provide a clue for the potential development of an effective vaccine. The results indicated that the FMD outbreaks in China had obvious time patterns and clusters in space and space-time, with the outbreaks concentrated in the first half of each year. The outbreaks of FMD decreased each year from 2010 with an obvious downward trend of hotspots. Spatial analysis revealed that the distribution of FMD outbreaks in 2010, 2015, and 2017 exhibited a clustered pattern. Space-time scanning revealed that the spatio-temporal clusters were centered in Guangdong, Tibet and the junction of Wuhan, Jiangxi, Anhui. Comparison of the spatial analysis and space-time analysis of FMD outbreaks revealed that Guangdong was the same cluster of the two in 2010. In addition, the directional trend analysis indicated that the FMD transmission was oriented northwest-southeast. The findings demonstrated that FMDV in China can be divided into three pedigrees and the homology of these strains is very high while comparing the first FMDV strain with the others. The data provide a basis for the effective monitoring and prevention of FMD, and for the development of an FMD vaccine in China.

Endemic foot and mouth disease: pastoral in-herd disease dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) burden disproportionally affects Africa where it is considered endemic. Smallholder livestock keepers experience significant losses due to disease, but the dynamics and mechanisms underlying persistence at the herd-level and beyond remain poorly understood. We address this knowledge gap using stochastic, compartmental modelling to explore FMD virus (FMDV) persistence, outbreak dynamics and disease burden in individual cattle herds within an endemic setting. Our analysis suggests repeated introduction of virus from outside the herd is required for long-term viral persistence, irrespective of carrier presence. Risk of new disease exposures resulting in significant secondary outbreaks is reduced by the presence of immune individuals giving rise to a period of reduced risk, the predicted duration of which suggests that multiple strains of FMDV are responsible for observed yearly herd-level outbreaks. Our analysis suggests management of population turnover could potentially reduce disease burden and deliberate infection of cattle, practiced by local livestock keepers in parts of Africa, has little effect on the duration of the reduced risk period but increases disease burden. This work suggests that FMD control should be implemented beyond individual herds but, in the interim, herd management may be used to reduced FMD impact to livestock keepers.

Review on Outbreak Dynamics, the Endemic Serotypes, and Diversified Topotypic Profiles of Foot and Mouth Disease Virus Isolates in Ethiopia from 2008 to 2018

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) endemicity in Ethiopia's livestock remains an ongoing cause for economic concern, with new topotypes still arising even in previously unaffected areas. FMD outbreaks occur every year almost throughout the country. Understanding the outbreak dynamics, endemic serotypes, and lineage profiles of FMD in this country is very critical in designing control and prevention programs. For this, detailed information on outbreak dynamics in Ethiopia needs to be understood clearly. In this article, therefore, we review the spatial and temporal patterns and dynamics of FMD outbreaks from 2008 to 2018. The circulating serotypes and the topotypic profiles of the virus are also discussed. FMD outbreak data were obtained from; reports of MoARD (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development)/MoLF (Ministry of livestock and Fishery, NVI (National Veterinary Institute), and NAHDIC (National Animal Health Diagnostic and Investigation Center); published articles; MSc works; PhD theses; and documents from international organizations. To effectively control and prevent FMD outbreaks, animal health agencies should focus on building surveillance systems that can quickly identify and control ongoing outbreaks and implement efficient preventive measures.

Foot and mouth disease outbreak investigation and estimation of its economic impact in selected districts in northwest Ethiopia

Foot and mouth disease (FMD), a highly contagious and economically important disease of cloven-hoofed animals, is endemic in Ethiopia. Foot and mouth disease outbreak investigation and follow-up studies were undertaken to identify the causative serotype, determine the morbidity and mortality, and estimate the economic impact of the outbreaks in selected districts of Northwest Ethiopia. The serotype of FMD virus involved in the outbreaks was identified by antigen detection ELISA from clinical samples. Morbidity, mortality and economic impact of the outbreaks were assessed based on data collected from 738 smallholder farmers in a mixed crop-livestock (MCL) production system and from five dairy farms in the commercial dairy production system. The outbreaks were confirmed to be due to FMD virus serotype O. The animal level morbidity in clinically affected cattle herds was 68.1% for MCL production system and 54.5% for commercial dairy farms. The mortality in cattle in the MCL system was 0.4% and no mortality was recorded in the commercial dairy farms. The animal level morbidity in sheep and goats in the infected flocks was 35.7% but no mortality was seen in these species. The herd/flock level morbidity of FMD in outbreak affected kebeles of MCL system was 57.2% for cattle and 8% for sheep and goats. The economic losses due to milk loss, draught power loss, mortality and treatment cost were on average USD 34 (interquartile range: 9.4-44.4) per affected herd in the MCL system and this was statistically significantly lower than the USD 459.1 (interquartile range: 400.0-486.2) per affected farm in the commercial dairy farms (p < .05). These economic losses have significant impact in the livelihood and income of affected farmers in both production systems. Future work should focus on the implementation of control measures that mitigate the economic impact of the disease.

Sero-Epidemiology of Foot and Mouth Disease in Domestic Ruminants in Amhara Region, Ethiopia

This study involved cross-sectional serological and questionnaire-based surveys to investigate the sero-epidemiology of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in domestic ruminants, and farmers' knowledge and practices about the disease in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. A multistage cluster sampling was carried out to select domestic ruminants for serological sampling and for the interview with farmers. A total of 1,672 sera samples were collected and tested using a 3ABC-Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay, and 170 farmers were interviewed. An overall FMD apparent seroprevalence of 11.48% (95% CI: 7.52-17.14%) was recorded in the domestic ruminants. The overall true prevalence was 12.04%. The seroprevalence of FMD was higher in cattle (14.37%) than in goats (7.10%) and sheep (7.07%). The age stratified seroprevalence in the districts showed that 66.67% of the districts studied experienced a FMD outbreak within the preceding year of the study time. A mixed effect logistic regression analysis revealed that agroecology, the production system and the age of the animal was significantly associated with FMD seropositivity in cattle (P < 0.05). A statistically significant (P < 0.05) positive correlation (r = 0.93) was observed between cattle and small ruminant FMD seroprevalences. About 82% of the farmers interviewed knew of FMD and 85% of them had experienced the disease in their own herds before. The farmers mostly employ traditional means to control FMD. In conclusion, the findings of the study indicated that FMD is a prevalent disease in the Amhara region with more importance in the intensive production systems and the lowlands of the region. High correlation in seroprevalence between small and large ruminants indicated a possible cross transmission between these species. Therefore, small ruminants should not be overlooked in FMD control. Farmers in the region have a good level of knowledge about the disease; however, currently they heavily rely on traditional practices primarily focused on treating wounds of infected animals. This calls for extension work on available effective preventive measures of the disease, such as vaccination and movement restriction.

Modeling the transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease in Amhara region, Ethiopia

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is contagious, acute viral disease of all cloven-hoofed animals. The disease is endemic in Ethiopia and causes multiple outbreak every year all over the country. While it is important to understand to the transmission dynamics of FMD outbreaks for appropriate control intervention, no such study has been done in Ethiopia. Thus, the aims of this study were to estimate the basic reproduction number (R₀) of FMD and simulate FMD transmission dynamics of FMD in Amhara region of Ethiopia. Basic reproduction number (R₀) was estimated from age stratified sero-prevalence data through maximum likelihood estimation. A stochastic SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) compartmental FMD model was formulated and parameterized using literature and age stratified sero-prevalence field data. The R₀ of FMD in the region was estimated to be 1.27 (95%CI: 1.20-1.34). The simulation of the SIR model showed only 24% (95% CI: 16-32%) of the infection introduced in the region caused major outbreaks. Out of the major outbreaks 25% of them tend to persist in the region. Major outbreaks cause 38.9% (95% CI: 38.8-39.1%) morbidity and 0.0019% (95% CI: 0.0018-0.0020%) mortality in cattle and the outbreaks stayed for an average of 690 days (95%CI: 655-727). Validation of the model prediction with farmer's field experience indicated a fairly similar result especially for the predicted morbidity caused by outbreaks. This study revealed low transmission of FMD within the Amhara region cattle population indicating not very high vaccination coverage is needed, if control through vaccination is envisaged at regional level. However, owing to several simplified assumptions made during the modeling, this conclusion should be taken cautiously.

Transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease in selected outbreak areas of northwest Ethiopia

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically important disease of cloven-hoofed animals, which is endemic in Ethiopia. An outbreak follow-up study was undertaken to quantify the transmission parameters of FMD in the crop-livestock mixed (CLM) system and commercial dairy farms in selected areas of northwest Ethiopia. The transmission parameters were quantified using a generalised linear model (GLM) based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model. The per day average transmission rate between animals was 0.26 (95% CI 0.22-0.32) and 0.33 (95% CI 0.21-0.57) in the CLM system and in the commercial dairy farms, respectively. The average basic reproduction ratio of FMD was 1.68 (95% CI 1.42-2.07) in the CLM system and 1.98 (95% CI 1.26-3.42) in the commercial dairy farms. The medium per day transmission rate and moderate basic reproduction ratio observed in this study indicated that a vaccination coverage needed to stop transmission of the disease in these populations might not be very high.

Review of epidemiological risk models for foot-and-mouth disease: Implications for prevention strategies with a focus on Africa

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious transboundary disease that affects domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animal species. The aim of this review was to identify and critically assess some modelling techniques for FMD that are well supported by scientific evidence from the literature with a focus on their use in African countries where the disease remains enzootic. In particular, this study attempted to provide a synopsis of the relative strengths and weaknesses of these models and their relevance to FMD prevention policies. A literature search was conducted to identify quantitative and qualitative risk assessments for FMD, including studies that describe FMD risk factor modelling and spatiotemporal analysis. A description of retrieved papers and a critical assessment of the modelling methods, main findings and their limitations were performed. Different types of models have been used depending on the purpose of the study and the nature of available data. The most frequently identified factors associated with the risk of FMD occurrence were the movement (especially uncontrolled animal movement) and the mixing of animals around water and grazing points. Based on the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment studies, the critical pathway analysis showed that the overall risk of FMDV entering a given country is low. However, in some cases, this risk can be elevated, especially when illegal importation of meat and the movement of terrestrial livestock are involved. Depending on the approach used, these studies highlight shortcomings associated with the application of models and the lack of reliable data from endemic settings. Therefore, the development and application of specific models for use in FMD endemic countries including Africa is encouraged.

The implementation of cattle market closure strategies to mitigate the foot-and-mouth disease epidemics: A contact modeling approach

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most endemic diseases in livestock worldwide. The disease occurrence generally results in a huge economic impact. The virus may distribute across countries or even continents along the contact network of animal movements. The present study, therefore, aimed to explore a cattle movement network originated in Tak, a Thailand-Myanmar bordered province and to demonstrate how FMDV spread among the nodes of market, source and destination. Subsequently, we examined the effectiveness of market closure intervention. The market-market (M-M) network was constructed to highlight the inter-market connections and the FMDV was modeled to spread along the trade chain. Four market closure scenarios based on rapidness and duration of implementation were examined. Our results indicate that two of the three major markets located in the province were highly connected and a strongly connected component was identified. The intra-provincial animal movements, which were currently overlooked, should be moved into sights as most of the high-risk sources for FMD epidemics were recognized in a close proximity to the cattle markets. Simultaneously, remote destinations across the country were identified. The inter-provincial animal movement control must be strengthened once FMD outbreak is notified. Based on our simulations, closing markets with low inter-market connectivity may not prevent the spread of FMDV. A selective market closure strategy targeting highly connected markets together with cattle trader tracking system was an alternative approach. However, socio-economic consequences regarding this intervention must be considered.

Farmers' Intentions to Implement Foot and Mouth Disease Control Measures in Ethiopia

The objectives of this study were to explore farmers' intentions to implement foot and mouth disease (FMD) control in Ethiopia, and to identify perceptions about the disease and its control measures that influence these intentions using the Health Belief Model (HBM) framework. Data were collected using questionnaires from 293 farmers in three different production systems. The influence of perceptions on the intentions to implement control measures were analyzed using binary logistic regression. The effect of socio-demographic and husbandry variables on perceptions that were found to significantly influence the intentions were analyzed using ordinal logistic regression. Almost all farmers (99%) intended to implement FMD vaccination free of charge. The majority of farmers in the pastoral (94%) and market oriented (92%) systems also had the intention to implement vaccination with charge but only 42% of the crop-livestock mixed farmers had the intention to do so. Only 2% of pastoral and 18% of crop-livestock mixed farmers had the intention to implement herd isolation and animal movement restriction continuously. These proportions increased to 11% for pastoral and 50% for crop-livestock mixed farmers when the measure is applied only during an outbreak. The majority of farmers in the market oriented system (>80%) had the intention to implement herd isolation and animal movement restriction measure, both continuously and during an outbreak. Among the HBM perception constructs, perceived barrier was found to be the only significant predictor of the intention to implement vaccination. Perceived susceptibility, perceived benefit and perceived barrier were the significant predictors of the intention for herd isolation and animal movement restriction measure. In turn, the predicting perceived barrier on vaccination control varied significantly with the production system and the age of farmers. The significant HBM perception predictors on herd isolation and animal movement restriction control were significantly influenced only by the type of production system. The results of this study indicate that farmers' intentions to apply FMD control measures are variable among production systems, an insight which is relevant in the development of future control programs. Promotion programs aimed at increasing farmers' motivation to participate in FMD control by charged vaccination or animal movement restriction should give attention to the perceived barriers influencing the intentions to apply these measures.