Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming

Transferring climate change physical knowledge

Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and feedbacks, yet those methods cannot capture the nonlinear complexity inherent in the climate system. Using a Transfer Learning approach, we show that Machine Learning can be used to optimally leverage and merge the knowledge gained from global temperature maps simulated by Earth system models and observed in the historical period to reduce the spread of global surface air temperature fields projected in the 21st century. We reach an uncertainty reduction of more than 50% with respect to state-of-the-art approaches while giving evidence that our method provides improved regional temperature patterns together with narrower projections uncertainty, urgently required for climate adaptation.

EutherianCoP. An integrated biotic and climate database for conservation paleobiology based on eutherian mammals

We present a new database, EutherianCoP, of fossil mammals which lived globally from the Late Pleistocene to the Holocene. The database includes 13,972 fossil occurrences of 786 extant or recently extinct placental mammal species, plus 155,198 current occurrences for those of them which survived to the present. The occurrences are correlated with radiometric age information. For all species, we provide 32 different traits, inclusive of taxonomic, phenotypic, life history, biogeographic and phylogenetic information. Differently from any other compilation, the occurrences are complemented with estimates of past climatic conditions, including site-interpolated monthly and annual precipitation and temperature, leaf area index, megabiome type and net primary productivity, which are derived from transient paleo model simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model 1.2 and the BIOME4 vegetation model. All data are further downloadable for further investigation.

Northern Hemisphere sea ice variability in a transient CGCM simulation of the past 2.6 Ma

The recent sea ice changes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), necessitate elucidating the sea ice variability over the past 2.6 million years (Ma), when the Earth's glacial cycles transitioned from ∼41 to ∼100 kyr periodicity, following the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) period (0.7-1.2 Ma). Here, we analyze a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulation to understand how the NH sea ice responds to changes in the transient orbital, greenhouse gas (GHG), and ice-sheet forcings. We find that the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) and axial wobble (precession) strongly influence the variability in high-latitude (>70° N) perennial sea ice and mid-latitude (35° N-70° N) seasonal sea ice, respectively, by modifying the net surface shortwave radiation. Meanwhile, the GHG forcing affects the glacial-interglacial sea ice predominantly in the Labrador Sea, Irminger-Iceland basin sector, and Central North Pacific regions during the MPT and post-MPT (0.0-0.7 Ma) periods by modulating the downwelling longwave radiation. Additionally, we confirm that variability with longer periodicity (∼100 kyr) from GHG and ice-sheet forcings is most pronounced in NH sea ice during the MPT and post-MPT periods.

The evolving three-dimensional landscape of human adaptation

Over the past 3 million years, humans have expanded their ecological niche and adapted to more diverse environments. The temporal evolution and underlying drivers behind this niche expansion remain largely unknown. By combining archeological findings with landscape topographic data and model simulations of the climate and biomes, we show that human sites clustered in areas with increased terrain roughness, corresponding to higher levels of biodiversity. We find a gradual increase in human habitat preferences toward rough terrains until about 1.1 million years ago (Ma), followed by a 300 thousand-year-long contraction of the ecological niche. This period coincided with the Mid-Pleistocene Transition and previously hypothesized ancestral population bottlenecks. Our statistical analysis further reveals that from 0.8 Ma onward, the human niche expanded again, with human species (e.g., H. heidelbergensis, H. neanderthalensis, and H. sapiens) adapting to rougher terrain, colder and drier conditions, and toward regions of higher ecological diversity.

The radiative feedback continuum from Snowball Earth to an ice-free hothouse

Paleoclimate records have been used to estimate the modern equilibrium climate sensitivity. However, this requires understanding how the feedbacks governing the climate response vary with the climate itself. Here we warm and cool a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate a continuum of climates ranging from a nearly ice-covered Snowball Earth to a nearly ice-free hothouse. We find that the pre-industrial (PI) climate is near a stability optimum: warming leads to a less-stable (more-sensitive) climate, as does cooling of more than 2K. Physically interpreting the results, we find that the decrease in stability for climates colder than the PI occurs mainly due to the albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks, and the decrease in stability for warmer climates occurs mainly due to the cloud feedback. These results imply that paleoclimate records provide a stronger constraint than has been calculated in previous studies, suggesting a reduction in the uncertainty range of the climate sensitivity.

Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates

Here, we show that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides a stronger constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the global warming from increasing greenhouse gases, after accounting for temperature patterns. Feedbacks governing ECS depend on spatial patterns of surface temperature ("pattern effects"); hence, using the LGM to constrain future warming requires quantifying how temperature patterns produce different feedbacks during LGM cooling versus modern-day warming. Combining data assimilation reconstructions with atmospheric models, we show that the climate is more sensitive to LGM forcing because ice sheets amplify extratropical cooling where feedbacks are destabilizing. Accounting for LGM pattern effects yields a median modern-day ECS of 2.4°C, 66% range 1.7° to 3.5°C (1.4° to 5.0°C, 5 to 95%), from LGM evidence alone. Combining the LGM with other lines of evidence, the best estimate becomes 2.9°C, 66% range 2.4° to 3.5°C (2.1° to 4.1°C, 5 to 95%), substantially narrowing uncertainty compared to recent assessments.

Global and regional temperature change over the past 4.5 million years

Much of our understanding of Cenozoic climate is based on the record of δ18O measured in benthic foraminifera. However, this measurement reflects a combined signal of global temperature and sea level, thus preventing a clear understanding of the interactions and feedbacks of the climate system in causing global temperature change. Our new reconstruction of temperature change over the past 4.5 million years includes two phases of long-term cooling, with the second phase of accelerated cooling during the Middle Pleistocene Transition (1.5 to 0.9 million years ago) being accompanied by a transition from dominant 41,000-year low-amplitude periodicity to dominant 100,000-year high-amplitude periodicity. Changes in the rates of long-term cooling and variability are consistent with changes in the carbon cycle driven initially by geologic processes, followed by additional changes in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle.

Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate

The intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is expected to increase in response to greenhouse warming. However, how future climate change will affect TC frequencies and tracks is still under debate. Here, to further elucidate the underlying sensitivities and mechanisms, we study TCs response to different past and future climate forcings. Using a high-resolution TC-resolving global Earth system model with 1/4° atmosphere and 1/10° ocean resolution, we conducted a series of paleo-time-slice and future greenhouse warming simulations targeting the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, 125 ka), glacial sub-stage MIS5d (115 ka), present-day (PD), and CO2 doubling (2×CO2) conditions. Our analysis reveals that precessional forcing created an interhemispheric difference in simulated TC densities, whereas future CO2 forcing impacts both hemispheres in the same direction. In both cases, we find that TC genesis frequency, density, and intensity are primarily controlled by changes in tropospheric thermal and moisture structure, exhibiting a clear reduction in TC genesis density in warmer hemispheres.

Human adaptation to diverse biomes over the past 3 million years

To investigate the role of vegetation and ecosystem diversity on hominin adaptation and migration, we identify past human habitat preferences over time using a transient 3-million-year earth system-biome model simulation and an extensive hominin fossil and archaeological database. Our analysis shows that early African hominins predominantly lived in open environments such as grassland and dry shrubland. Migrating into Eurasia, hominins adapted to a broader range of biomes over time. By linking the location and age of hominin sites with corresponding simulated regional biomes, we also find that our ancestors actively selected for spatially diverse environments. The quantitative results lead to a new diversity hypothesis: Homo species, in particular Homo sapiens, were specially equipped to adapt to landscape mosaics.

Information about historical emissions drives the division of climate change mitigation costs

Despite worsening climate change, the international community still disagrees on how to divide the costs of mitigation between developing countries and developed countries, which emitted the bulk of historical carbon emissions. We study this issue using an economic experiment. Specifically, we test how information about historical emissions influences how much participants pay for climate change mitigation. In a four-player game, participants are assigned to lead two fictional countries as members of either the first or the second generation. The first generation produces wealth at the expense of greater carbon emissions. The second generation inherits their predecessor's wealth and negotiates how to split the climate change mitigation costs. Here we show that when the second generation knows that the previous generation created the current wealth and mitigation costs, participants whose predecessor generated more carbon emissions offered to pay more, whereas the successors of low-carbon emitters offered to pay less.

Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model

Climate-forced, offline ice-sheet model simulations have been used extensively in assessing how much ice-sheets can contribute to future global sea-level rise. Typically, these model projections do not account for the two-way interactions between ice-sheets and climate. To quantify the impact of ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, here we conduct greenhouse warming simulations with a coupled global climate-ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity. Following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-1.9, 2-4.5, 5-8.5 emission scenarios, the model simulations ice-sheet contributions to global sea-level rise by 2150 of 0.2 ± 0.01, 0.5 ± 0.01 and 1.4 ± 0.1 m, respectively. Antarctic ocean-ice-sheet-ice-shelf interactions enhance future subsurface basal melting, while freshwater-induced atmospheric cooling reduces surface melting and iceberg calving. The combined effect is likely to decelerate global sea-level rise contributions from Antarctica relative to the uncoupled climate-forced ice-sheet model configuration. Our results demonstrate that estimates of future sea-level rise fundamentally depend on the complex interactions between ice-sheets, icebergs, ocean and the atmosphere.

Global patterns of climate change impacts on desert bird communities

The world's warm deserts are predicted to experience disproportionately large temperature increases due to climate change, yet the impacts on global desert biodiversity remain poorly understood. Because species in warm deserts live close to their physiological limits, additional warming may induce local extinctions. Here, we combine climate change projections with biophysical models and species distributions to predict physiological impacts of climate change on desert birds globally. Our results show heterogeneous impacts between and within warm deserts. Moreover, spatial patterns of physiological impacts do not simply mirror air temperature changes. Climate change refugia, defined as warm desert areas with high avian diversity and low predicted physiological impacts, are predicted to persist in varying extents in different desert realms. Only a small proportion (<20%) of refugia fall within existing protected areas. Our analysis highlights the need to increase protection of refugial areas within the world's warm deserts to protect species from climate change.

Optimising a method for aragonite precipitation in simulated biogenic calcification media

Resolving how factors such as temperature, pH, biomolecules and mineral growth rate influence the geochemistry and structure of biogenic CaCO3, is essential to the effective development of palaeoproxies. Here we optimise a method to precipitate the CaCO3 polymorph aragonite from seawater, under tightly controlled conditions that simulate the saturation state (Ω) of coral calcification fluids. We then use the method to explore the influence of aspartic acid (one of the most abundant amino acids in coral skeletons) on aragonite structure and morphology. Using ≥200 mg of aragonite seed (surface area 0.84 m2), to provide a surface for mineral growth, in a 330 mL seawater volume, generates reproducible estimates of precipitation rate over Ωaragonite = 6.9-19.2. However, unseeded precipitations are highly variable in duration and do not provide consistent estimates of precipitation rate. Low concentrations of aspartic acid (1-10 μM) promote aragonite formation, but high concentrations (≥ 1 mM) inhibit precipitation. The Raman spectra of aragonite precipitated in vitro can be separated from the signature of the starting seed by ensuring that at least 60% of the analysed aragonite is precipitated in vitro (equivalent to using a seed of 200 mg and precipitating 300 mg aragonite in vitro). Aspartic acid concentrations ≥ 1mM caused a significant increase in the full width half maxima of the Raman aragonite v1 peak, reflective of increased rotational disorder in the aragonite structure. Changes in the organic content of coral skeletons can drive variations in the FWHM of the Raman aragonite ν1 peak, and if not accounted for, may confuse the interpretation of calcification fluid saturation state from this parameter.

Increasingly Sophisticated Climate Models Need the Out-Of-Sample Tests Paleoclimates Provide

Climate models are becoming increasingly sophisticated as climate scientists continually work to improve the realism with which the processes influencing Earth's climate are represented. One example is the treatment of cloud microphysics: as complexity is added to cloud microphysical schemes, Earth's energy budget can respond to changes in climate forcings, such as carbon dioxide or aerosols, in new ways. This increase in degrees of freedom has illuminated larger spread in climate sensitivity across the latest generation of climate models participating Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, with more high climate sensitivity models (Zelinka et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085782). Whilst the historical record gives us just over a century of data to apply toward climate sensitivity constraints (e.g., Nijsse et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020), the ocean is still taking up much of the heat trapped by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the climate system is far from equilibrium which limits our understanding how climate sensitivity might change in response to long-term forced climate change. Here we discuss the valuable tests that paleoclimate reconstructions can provide the latest generation of climate models, as demonstrated by the recent study of Zhu et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ms002776. Their study provides an example of the benefits for climate model development when climate models are confronted with simulating climates very different from today. Ideally the climate model development stage under future iterations of CMIP will involve such tests as an effort to constrain global climate sensitivity and the regional patterns of climate, such as polar amplification and subtropical aridification.

Elevated CO2 differentially mitigates chromium (VI) toxicity in two rice cultivars by modulating mineral homeostasis and improving redox status

Chromium (Cr) contamination reduces crop productivity worldwide. On the other hand, the expected increase in the future CO₂ levels (eCO₂) would improve plant growth under diverse growth conditions. However, the synergetic effect of eCO₂ has not been investigated at both physiological and biochemical levels in Cr-contaminated soil. This study aims to analyze the mitigating effect of eCO₂ on Cr VI phytotoxicity in two rice cultivars (Giza 181 and Sakha 106). Plants are exposed to different Cr concentrations (0, 200 and 400 mg Cr/kg Soil) at ambient (aCO₂) and eCO₂ (410 and 620 ppm, respectively). Unlike the stress parameters (MDA, H2O2 and protein oxidation), growth and photosynthetic reactions significantly dropped with increasing Cr concentration. However, in eCO₂ conditions, plants were able to mitigate the Cr stress by inducing antioxidants as well as higher concentrations of phytochelatins to detoxify Cr. Notably, the expression levels of the genes involved in mineral nutrition i.e., OsNRAMP1, OsRT1, OsHMA3, OsLCT1 and iron chelate reductase were upregulated in Cr-stressed Giza 181 plants grown under eCO₂. Mainly in Sakha 106, eCO₂ induced ascorbate-glutathione (ASC/GSH)-mediated antioxidative defense system. The present study brings the first ever comprehensive assessment of how future eCO₂ differentially mitigated Cr toxicity in rice.

Climate effects on archaic human habitats and species successions

It has long been believed that climate shifts during the last 2 million years had a pivotal role in the evolution of our genus Homo^1–3. However, given the limited number of representative palaeo-climate datasets from regions of anthropological interest, it has remained challenging to quantify this linkage. Here, we use an unprecedented transient Pleistocene coupled general circulation model simulation in combination with an extensive compilation of fossil and archaeological records to study the spatiotemporal habitat suitability for five hominin species over the past 2 million years. We show that astronomically forced changes in temperature, rainfall and terrestrial net primary production had a major impact on the observed distributions of these species. During the Early Pleistocene, hominins settled primarily in environments with weak orbital-scale climate variability. This behaviour changed substantially after the mid-Pleistocene transition, when archaic humans became global wanderers who adapted to a wide range of spatial climatic gradients. Analysis of the simulated hominin habitat overlap from approximately 300–400 thousand years ago further suggests that antiphased climate disruptions in southern Africa and Eurasia contributed to the evolutionary transformation of Homo heidelbergensis populations into Homo sapiens and Neanderthals, respectively. Our robust numerical simulations of climate-induced habitat changes provide a framework to test hypotheses on our human origin.

A new model simulation of climate change during the past 2 million years indicates that the appearances and disappearances of hominin species correlate with long-term climatic anomalies.

An investigation on well-to-wheel emissions of passenger cars in Turkey

Passenger cars are responsible for a great amount of energy consumption and emissions in the world. Turkey is one of the world's twenty largest emission producers. The reason behind this study is to determine the most appropriate energy source for passenger cars particularly in Turkey in terms of main vehicle emissions. The results will be supportive for general inferences also. The impact of technological year, vehicle type, fuel type, fuel production, and electricity generation from different energy sources on well-to-wheel emissions for Turkey has been analyzed using the GREET software in this study. In the realization of emission analysis, transportation statistics of Turkey in the last 10 years have been evaluated. In addition, different scenarios have been presented for the years 2030 and 2050. It is found that average emissions emitted from passenger cars in Turkey decrease by year, and the use of LPG and CNG in plug-in hybrid cars generates lower emissions in future scenarios.

Roles of insolation forcing and CO2 forcing on Late Pleistocene seasonal sea surface temperatures

Late Pleistocene changes in insolation, greenhouse gas concentrations, and ice sheets have different spatially and seasonally modulated climatic fingerprints. By exploring the seasonality of paleoclimate proxy data, we gain deeper insight into the drivers of climate changes. Here, we investigate changes in alkenone-based annual mean and Globigerinoides ruber Mg/Ca-based summer sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and their linkages to climate forcing over the past 400,000 years. During interglacial-glacial cycles, there are phase differences between annual mean and seasonal (summer and winter) temperatures, which relate to seasonal insolation changes. These phase differences are most evident during interglacials. During glacial terminations, temperature changes were strongly affected by CO₂. Early temperature minima, ~20,000 years before glacial terminations, except the last glacial period, coincide with the largest temperature differences between summer and winter, and with the timing of the lowest atmospheric CO₂ concentration. These findings imply the need to consider proxy seasonality and seasonal climate variability to estimate climate sensitivity.

How temperatures at different seasons differ in response to different forcings is not well known. Here, the authors reconstruct annual and seasonal sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and show that they react differently to CO2 and insolation forcing on glacial-interglacial timescales.

Soil arsenic toxicity differentially impacts C3 (barley) and C4 (maize) crops under future climate atmospheric CO2

Soil arsenic (As) contamination limits global agricultural productivity. Anthropogenic emissions are causing atmospheric CO₂ levels to rise. Elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) boosts plant growth both under optimal and suboptimal growth conditions. However, the crop-specific interaction between eCO₂ and soil arsenic exposure has not been investigated at the whole plant, physiological and biochemical level. Here, we tested the effects of eCO₂ (620 ppm) and soil As exposure (mild and severe treatments, 25 and 100 mg As/Kg soil) on growth, photosynthesis and redox homeostasis in barley (C3) and maize (C4). Compared to maize, barley was more susceptible to soil As exposure at ambient CO₂ levels. Barley plants accumulated more As, particularly in roots. As accumulation inhibited plant growth and induced oxidative damage in a species-specific manner. As-exposed barley experienced severe oxidative stress as illustrated by high H₂O₂ and protein oxidation levels. Interestingly, eCO₂ differentially mitigated As-induced stress in barley and maize. In barley, eCO₂ exposure reduced photorespiration, H₂O₂ production, and lipid/protein oxidation. In maize eCO₂ exposure led to an upregulation of the ascorbate-glutathione (ASC/GSH)-mediated antioxidative defense system. Combined, this work highlights how ambient and future eCO₂ levels differentially affect the growth, physiology and biochemistry of barley and maize crops exposed to soil As pollution.

Possible obliquity-forced warmth in southern Asia during the last glacial stage

Orbital-scale global climatic changes during the late Quaternary are dominated by high-latitude influenced ~100,000-year global ice-age cycles and monsoon influenced ~23,000-year low-latitude hydroclimate variations. However, the shortage of highly-resolved land temperature records remains a limiting factor for achieving a comprehensive understanding of long-term low-latitude terrestrial climatic changes. Here, we report paired mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and monsoon intensity proxy records over the past 88,000 years from Lake Tengchongqinghai in southwestern China. While summer monsoon intensity follows the ~23,000-year precession beat found also in previous studies, we identify previously unrecognized warm periods at 88,000-71,000 and 45,000-22,000 years ago, with 2-3 °C amplitudes that are close to our recorded full glacial-interglacial range. Using advanced transient climate simulations and comparing with forcing factors, we find that these warm periods in our MAAT record probably depends on local annual mean insolation, which is controlled by Earth's ~41,000-year obliquity cycles and is anti-phased to annual mean insolation at high latitudes. The coincidence of our identified warm periods and intervals of high-frequent dated archaeological evidence highlights the importance of temperature on anatomically modern humans in Asia during the last glacial stage.

Life Cycle GHG Emissions of Residential Buildings in Humid Subtropical and Tropical Climates: Systematic Review and Analysis

Improving the environmental life cycle performance of buildings by focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions along the building life cycle is considered a crucial step in achieving global climate targets. This paper provides a systematic review and analysis of 75 residential case studies in humid subtropical and tropical climates. The study investigates GHG emissions across the building life cycle, i.e., it analyses both embodied and operational GHG emissions. Furthermore, the influence of various parameters, such as building location, typology, construction materials and energy performance, as well as methodological aspects are investigated. Through comparative analysis, the study identifies promising design strategies for reducing life cycle-related GHG emissions of buildings operating in subtropical and tropical climate zones. The results show that life cycle GHG emissions in the analysed studies are mostly dominated by operational emissions and are the highest for energy-intensive multi-family buildings. Buildings following low or net-zero energy performance targets show potential reductions of 50–80% for total life cycle GHG emissions, compared to buildings with conventional energy performance. Implementation of on-site photovoltaic (PV) systems provides the highest reduction potential for both operational and total life cycle GHG emissions, with potential reductions of 92% to 100% and 48% to 66%, respectively. Strategies related to increased use of timber and other bio-based materials present the highest potential for reduction of embodied GHG emissions, with reductions of 9% to 73%.

An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models

For the current generation of earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2) is 1.8°C to 5.6°C, the largest of any generation of models dating to the 1990s. Meanwhile, the range of transient climate response (TCR, the surface temperature warming around the time of CO2 doubling in a 1% per year CO2 increase simulation) for the CMIP6 models of 1.7°C (1.3°C to 3.0°C) is only slightly larger than for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Here we review and synthesize the latest developments in ECS and TCR values in CMIP, compile possible reasons for the current values as supplied by the modeling groups, and highlight future directions. Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6.

Analyzing changes in the complexity of climate in the last four decades using MERRA-2 radiation data

The energy balance of the Earth is controlled by the shortwave and longwave radiation emitted to space. Changes in the thermodynamic state of the system over time affect climate and are noticeable when viewing the system as a whole. In this paper, we study the changes in the complexity of climate in the last four decades using data from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). First, we study the complexity of the shortwave and longwave radiation fields independently using Approximate Entropy and Sample Entropy, observing that the rate of complexity change is faster for shortwave radiation. Then, we study the causality of those changes using Transfer Entropy to capture the non-linear dynamics of climate, showing that the changes are mainly driven by the variations in shortwave radiation. The observed behavior of climatic complexity could be explained by the changes in cloud amount, and we research that possibility by investigating its evolution from a complexity perspective using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP).

The Impact of a Stochastic Parameterization Scheme on Climate Sensitivity in EC-Earth

Stochastic schemes, designed to represent unresolved subgrid-scale variability, are frequently used in short and medium-range weather forecasts, where they are found to improve several aspects of the model. In recent years, the impact of stochastic physics has also been found to be beneficial for the model's long-term climate. In this paper, we demonstrate for the first time that the inclusion of a stochastic physics scheme can notably affect a model's projection of global warming, as well as its historical climatological global temperature. Specifically, we find that when including the "stochastically perturbed parametrization tendencies" (SPPT) scheme in the fully coupled climate model EC-Earth v3.1, the predicted level of global warming between 1850 and 2100 is reduced by 10% under an RCP8.5 forcing scenario. We link this reduction in climate sensitivity to a change in the cloud feedbacks with SPPT. In particular, the scheme appears to reduce the positive low cloud cover feedback and increase the negative cloud optical feedback. A key role is played by a robust, rapid increase in cloud liquid water with SPPT, which we speculate is due to the scheme's nonlinear interaction with condensation.

What does mitogenomics tell us about the evolutionary history of the Drosophila buzzatii cluster (repleta group)?

The Drosophila repleta group is an array of more than 100 species endemic to the “New World”, many of which are cactophilic. The ability to utilize decaying cactus tissues as breeding and feeding sites is a key aspect that allowed the successful diversification of the repleta group in American deserts and arid lands. Within this group, the Drosophila buzzatii cluster is a South American clade of seven closely related species in different stages of divergence, making them a valuable model system for evolutionary research. Substantial effort has been devoted to elucidating the phylogenetic relationships among members of the D. buzzatii cluster, including molecular phylogenetic studies that have generated ambiguous results where different tree topologies have resulted dependent on the kinds of molecular marker used. Even though mitochondrial DNA regions have become useful markers in evolutionary biology and population genetics, none of the more than twenty Drosophila mitogenomes assembled so far includes this cluster. Here, we report the assembly of six complete mitogenomes of five species: D. antonietae, D. borborema, D. buzzatii, two strains of D. koepferae and D. seriema, with the aim of revisiting phylogenetic relationships and divergence times by means of mitogenomic analyses. Our recovered topology using complete mitogenomes supports the hypothesis of monophyly of the D. buzzatii cluster and shows two main clades, one including D. buzzatii and D. koepferae (both strains), and the other containing the remaining species. These results are in agreement with previous reports based on a few mitochondrial and/or nuclear genes, but conflict with the results of a recent large-scale nuclear phylogeny, indicating that nuclear and mitochondrial genomes depict different evolutionary histories.

Human origins in a southern African palaeo-wetland and first migrations

Anatomically modern humans originated in Africa around 200 thousand years ago (ka)^1-4. Although some of the oldest skeletal remains suggest an eastern African origin², southern Africa is home to contemporary populations that represent the earliest branch of human genetic phylogeny^5,6. Here we generate, to our knowledge, the largest resource for the poorly represented and deepest-rooting maternal L0 mitochondrial DNA branch (198 new mitogenomes for a total of 1,217 mitogenomes) from contemporary southern Africans and show the geographical isolation of L0d1'2, L0k and L0g KhoeSan descendants south of the Zambezi river in Africa. By establishing mitogenomic timelines, frequencies and dispersals, we show that the L0 lineage emerged within the residual Makgadikgadi-Okavango palaeo-wetland of southern Africa⁷, approximately 200 ka (95% confidence interval, 240-165 ka). Genetic divergence points to a sustained 70,000-year-long existence of the L0 lineage before an out-of-homeland northeast-southwest dispersal between 130 and 110 ka. Palaeo-climate proxy and model data suggest that increased humidity opened green corridors, first to the northeast then to the southwest. Subsequent drying of the homeland corresponds to a sustained effective population size (L0k), whereas wet-dry cycles and probable adaptation to marine foraging allowed the southwestern migrants to achieve population growth (L0d1'2), as supported by extensive south-coastal archaeological evidence^8-10. Taken together, we propose a southern African origin of anatomically modern humans with sustained homeland occupation before the first migrations of people that appear to have been driven by regional climate changes.

Recent Advances in Metal-Organic Frameworks for Photo-/Electrocatalytic CO2 Reduction

Considerable attention has been paid to the utilization of CO₂ , an abundant carbon source in nature. In this regard, porous catalysts have been eagerly explored with excellent performance for photo-/electrocatalytic reduction of CO₂ to high valued products. Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), featuring large surface area, high porosity, tunable composition and unique structural characteristics, have been widely exploited in catalytic CO₂ reduction. This Minireview first reports the current progress of MOFs in CO₂ reduction. Then, a specific interest is focused on MOFs in photo-/electrocatalytic reduction of CO₂ by modifying their metal centers, organic linkers, and pores. Finally, the future directions of study are also highlighted to satisfy the requirement of practical applications.

Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years

Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately¹ and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial-interglacial cycles^2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance.

Minimum founding populations for the first peopling of Sahul

The timing, context and nature of the first people to enter Sahul is still poorly understood owing to a fragmented archaeological record. However, quantifying the plausible demographic context of this founding population is essential to determine how and why the initial peopling of Sahul occurred. We developed a stochastic, age-structured model using demographic rates from hunter-gatherer societies, and relative carrying capacity hindcasted with LOVECLIM's net primary productivity for northern Sahul. We projected these populations to determine the resilience and minimum sizes required to avoid extinction. A census founding population of between 1,300 and 1,550 individuals was necessary to maintain a quasi-extinction threshold of ≲0.1. This minimum founding population could have arrived at a single point in time, or through multiple voyages of ≥130 people over ~700-900 years. This result shows that substantial population amalgamation in Sunda and Wallacea in Marine Isotope Stages 3-4 provided the conditions for the successful, large-scale and probably planned peopling of Sahul.

800-kyr land temperature variations modulated by vegetation changes on Chinese Loess Plateau

The complicity of long-term land surface temperature (LST) changes has been under investigated and less understood, hindering our understanding of the history and mechanism of terrestrial climate change. Here, we report the longest (800 thousand years) LSTs based on distributions of soil fossil bacterial glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers preserved in well-dated loess-paleosol sequences at the center of the Chinese Loess Plateau. We have found a previously-unrecognized increasing early and prolonged warming pattern toward the northwestern plateau at the onset of the past seven deglaciations, corresponding to the decrease in vegetation coverage, suggesting underlying surface vegetation or lack of has played an important role in regulating LSTs, superimposed on the fundamental global glacial–interglacial changes. Our results support that LSTs in semi-humid and semi-arid regions with little vegetation will be more sensitive to the anticipated global temperature rise, while improving vegetation coverage would reduce LSTs and thus ecological impacts.

Modern observation indicates that vegetation cover could modulate land surface temperatures substantially. Here the authors demonstrate that such vegetation feedbacks could be clearly identified in the Chinese Loess Plateau land surface temperature records during past cool periods when vegetation cover was reduced.

Parapatric subspecies of Macaca assamensis show a marginal overlap in their predicted potential distribution: Some elaborations for modern conservation management

Phylogenetic niche conservatism implies that sister taxa will have similar niches, although the niches of disjunct subspecies may evolve differently. This study uses Macaca assamensis, subspecies assamensis and pelops, to investigate the similarities of realized climatic niches of two disjunct subspecies (separated by the Brahmaputra River) along with a similarity analysis of their respective regions' climate. Modeled distributions were used to quantify their potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The climatic similarity between regions of each subspecies was tested with principal component analysis (PCA), and the realized climatic niche overlap between two subspecies was tested with a multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) on a subset of the least correlated variables out of 24 publicly available topo-bioclimatic variables. Tukey's honest significance difference (HSD) was used to test the range differences (on all 24 variables) between subspecies. The potential distribution of both taxa in the current climate and projected future climate was model-predicted using MaxEnt and Random Forest. We found significantly different climatic ranges for 21 predictors (HSD; p < 0.05) for the two subspecies, significantly different climatic conditions for their regions (using PCA; p < 0.001), and significantly different realized climatic niches for the two subspecies (MANOVA; p < 0.001). The distribution models generated a larger potential area than the currently known distributions. Although literature show that the Brahmaputra River is an effective dispersal barrier, we found some of the neighboring geographic range for both subspecies appears to be potentially suitable for the other taxon. The projected future potential areas indicate that some parts of the currently occupied geography, mostly southern parts, may become climatically unsuitable, whereas other new geographical areas may become suitable. Most of these new potential areas will be toward the north where higher and fragmented mountains, which has conservation implications.

Paris Agreement, Precautionary Principle and Human Rights: Zero Emissions in Two Decades?

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 is subject to much criticism of being inadequate. This however neglects its very ambitious objective, which limits legally-binding global warming to 1.5 to 1.8 degrees in comparison to pre-industrial levels. This article shows, based on the overlap of unanswered questions for prognoses in natural science and the legal precautionary principle, that this objective indicates a legal imperative towards zero emissions globally within a short timeframe. Furthermore, it becomes apparent that policies need to be focused on achieving the 1.5-degree temperature limit. From a legal standpoint with regard to existential matters, only those policies are justified that are fit to contribute to reaching the temperature limit with high certainty, without overshoot, without leaving the 1.5 limit aside and without geoengineering measures, in contrast to the tendencies of the IPCC. This creates a big challenge even for the alleged forerunners of climate policies, Germany and the EU; because, according to the objective, the EU and Germany have to raise the level of ambition in their climate policies rapidly and drastically.

Polyploid Arabidopsis species originated around recent glaciation maxima

Polyploidy may provide adaptive advantages and is considered to be important for evolution and speciation. Polyploidy events are found throughout the evolutionary history of plants, however they do not seem to be uniformly distributed along the time axis. For example, many of the detected ancient whole-genome duplications (WGDs) seem to cluster around the K/Pg boundary (∼66Mya), which corresponds to a drastic climate change event and a mass extinction. Here, we discuss more recent polyploidy events using Arabidopsis as the most developed plant model at the level of the entire genus. We review the history of the origin of allotetraploid species A. suecica and A. kamchatica, and tetraploid lineages of A. lyrata, A. arenosa and A. thaliana, and discuss potential adaptive advantages. Also, we highlight an association between recent glacial maxima and estimated times of origins of polyploidy in Arabidopsis. Such association might further support a link between polyploidy and environmental challenge, which has been observed now for different time-scales and for both ancient and recent polyploids.

In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust-climate feedbacks

Mineral dust aerosols cool Earth directly by scattering incoming solar radiation and indirectly by affecting clouds and biogeochemical cycles. Recent Earth history has featured quasi-100,000-y, glacial-interglacial climate cycles with lower/higher temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations during glacials/interglacials. Global average, glacial maxima dust levels were more than 3 times higher than during interglacials, thereby contributing to glacial cooling. However, the timing, strength, and overall role of dust-climate feedbacks over these cycles remain unclear. Here we use dust deposition data and temperature reconstructions from ice sheet, ocean sediment, and land archives to construct dust-climate relationships. Although absolute dust deposition rates vary greatly among these archives, they all exhibit striking, nonlinear increases toward coldest glacial conditions. From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial-interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system model simulations. The results of these simulations show that dust-climate feedbacks, perhaps set off by orbital forcing, push the system in and out of extreme cold conditions such as glacial maxima. Without these dust effects, glacial temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations would have been much more stable at higher, intermediate glacial levels. The structure of residual anomalies over the glacial-interglacial climate cycles after subtraction of dust effects provides constraints for the strength and timing of other processes governing these cycles.

Global and regional importance of the direct dust-climate feedback

Feedbacks between the global dust cycle and the climate system might have amplified past climate changes. Yet, it remains unclear what role the dust-climate feedback will play in future anthropogenic climate change. Here, we estimate the direct dust-climate feedback, arising from changes in the dust direct radiative effect (DRE), using a simple theoretical framework that combines constraints on the dust DRE with a series of climate model results. We find that the direct dust-climate feedback is likely in the range of -0.04 to +0.02 Wm -2 K-1, such that it could account for a substantial fraction of the total aerosol feedbacks in the climate system. On a regional scale, the direct dust-climate feedback is enhanced by approximately an order of magnitude close to major source regions. This suggests that it could play an important role in shaping the future climates of Northern Africa, the Sahel, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and Central Asia.

Comparing Climate Sensitivity, Past and Present

Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-estimates are often considered informative for assessments of actuo-climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, but this utility remains debated because of concerns about the impacts of uncertainties, assumptions, and incomplete knowledge about controlling mechanisms in the dynamic climate system, with its multiple interacting feedbacks and their potential dependence on the climate background state. This is exacerbated by the need to assess actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity over different timescales, with different drivers, and with different (data and/or model) limitations. Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches. We also highlight priorities for future research to improve the use of paleo-estimates in evaluations of current climate change.

Nonlinear climatic sensitivity to greenhouse gases over past 4 glacial/interglacial cycles

The paleoclimatic sensitivity to atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) has recently been suggested to be nonlinear, however a GHG threshold value associated with deglaciation remains uncertain. Here, we combine a new sea surface temperature record spanning the last 360,000 years from the southern Western Pacific Warm Pool with records from five previous studies in the equatorial Pacific to document the nonlinear relationship between climatic sensitivity and GHG levels over the past four glacial/interglacial cycles. The sensitivity of the responses to GHG concentrations rises dramatically by a factor of 2–4 at atmospheric CO₂ levels of >220 ppm. Our results suggest that the equatorial Pacific acts as a nonlinear amplifier that allows global climate to transition from deglacial to full interglacial conditions once atmospheric CO₂ levels reach threshold levels.