Global restoration opportunities in tropical rainforest landscapes

Green deserts, but not always: A global synthesis of native woody species regeneration under tropical tree monocultures

Tree monocultures constitute an increasing fraction of the global tree cover and are the dominant tree-growing strategy of forest landscape restoration commitments. Their advantages to produce timber are well known, but their value for biodiversity is highly controversial and context dependent. Therefore, understanding whether, and in which conditions, they can harbor native species regeneration is crucial. Here, we conducted meta-analyses based on a global survey of the literature and on a database created with local, unpublished studies throughout Brazil to evaluate the regeneration potential of native species under tree monocultures and the way management influences this regeneration. Native woody species regeneration under tree monocultures harbors a substantial fraction of the diversity (on average 40% and 68% in the global and Brazilian surveys, respectively) and abundance (on average 25% and 60% in the global and Brazilian surveys, respectively) of regeneration observed in natural forests. Plantations with longer rotation lengths, composed of native tree species, and located adjacent to forest remnants harbor more species. Pine plantations harbor more native individuals than eucalypt plantations, and the abundance of regenerating trees is higher in sites with higher mean temperatures. Species-area curves revealed that the number of woody species under pine and eucalypt plantations in Brazil is 606 and 598 species, respectively, over an aggregated sampled area of ca. 12 ha. We highlight that the understory of tree monocultures can harbor a considerable diversity of regenerating native species at the landscape and regional scales, but this diversity strongly depends on management. Long-rotation length and favorable location are key factors for woody regeneration success under tropical tree monocultures. Therefore, tree monocultures can play a role in forest landscape restoration and conservation, but only if they are planned and managed for achieving this purpose.

First whole-genome sequence and assembly of the Ecuadorian brown-headed spider monkey (Ateles fusciceps fusciceps), a critically endangered species, using Oxford Nanopore Technologies

The Ecuadorian brown-headed spider monkey (Ateles fusciceps fusciceps) is currently considered one of the most endangered primates in the world and is classified as critically endangered [International union for conservation of nature (IUCN)]. It faces multiple threats, the most significant one being habitat loss due to deforestation in western Ecuador. Genomic tools are keys for the management of endangered species, but this requires a reference genome, which until now was unavailable for A. f. fusciceps. The present study reports the first whole-genome sequence and assembly of A. f. fusciceps generated using Oxford Nanopore long reads. DNA was extracted from a subadult male, and libraries were prepared for sequencing following the Ligation Sequencing Kit SQK-LSK112 workflow. Sequencing was performed using a MinION Mk1C sequencer. The sequencing reads were processed to generate a genome assembly. Two different assemblers were used to obtain draft genomes using raw reads, of which the Flye assembly was found to be superior. The final assembly has a total length of 2.63 Gb and contains 3,861 contigs, with an N50 of 7,560,531 bp. The assembly was analyzed for annotation completeness based on primate ortholog prediction using a high-resolution database, and was found to be 84.3% complete, with a low number of duplicated genes indicating a precise assembly. The annotation of the assembly predicted 31,417 protein-coding genes, comparable with other mammal assemblies. A reference genome for this critically endangered species will allow researchers to gain insight into the genetics of its populations and thus aid conservation and management efforts of this vulnerable species.

Conflicts and opportunities for commercial tree plantation expansion and biodiversity restoration across Brazil

Substantial global restoration commitments are occurring alongside a rapid expansion in land-hungry tropical commodities, including to supply increasing demand for wood products. Future commercial tree plantations may deliver high timber yields, shrinking the footprint of production forestry, but there is an as-yet unquantified risk that plantations may expand into priority restoration areas, with marked environmental costs. Focusing on Brazil-a country of exceptional restoration importance and one of the largest tropical timber producers-we use random forest models and information on the economic, social, and spatial drivers of historic commercial tree plantation expansion to estimate and map the probability of future monoculture tree plantation expansion between 2020 and 2030. We then evaluate potential plantation-restoration conflicts and opportunities at national and biome-scales and under different future production and restoration pathways. Our simulations show that of 2.8 Mha of future plantation expansion (equivalent to plantation expansion 2010-2020), ~78,000 ha (3%) is forecast to occur in the top 1% of restoration priority areas for terrestrial vertebrates, with ~547,500 ha (20%) and ~1,300,000 ha (46%) in the top 10% and 30% of priority areas, respectively. Just ~459,000 ha (16%) of expansion is forecast within low-restoration areas (bottom 30% restoration priorities), and the first 1 Mha of plantation expansion is likely to have disproportionate impacts, with potential restoration-plantation overlap starkest in the Atlantic Forest but prominent in the Pampas and Cerrado as well. Our findings suggest that robust, coherent land-use policies must be deployed to ensure that significant trade-offs between restoration and production objectives are navigated, and that commodity expansion does not undermine the most tractable conservation gains under emerging global restoration agendas. They also highlight the potentially significant role an engaged forestry sector could play in improving biodiversity outcomes in restoration projects in Brazil, and presumably elsewhere.

Neighbourhood species richness and drought-tolerance traits modulate tree growth and δ13 C responses to drought

Mixed-species forests are promoted as a forest management strategy for climate change adaptation, but whether they are more resistant to drought than monospecific forests remains contested. In particular, the trait-based mechanisms driving the role of tree diversity under drought remain elusive. Using tree cores from a large-scale biodiversity experiment, we investigated tree growth and physiological stress responses (i.e. increase in wood carbon isotopic ratio; δ13 C) to changes in climate-induced water availability (wet to dry years) along gradients in neighbourhood tree species richness and drought-tolerance traits. We hypothesized that neighbourhood species richness increases growth and decreases δ13 C and that these relationships are modulated by the abiotic (i.e. climatic conditions) and the biotic context. We characterised the biotic context using drought-tolerance traits of focal trees and their neighbours. These traits are related to cavitation resistance versus resource acquisition and stomatal control. Tree growth increased with neighbourhood species richness. However, we did not observe a universal relief of water stress in species-rich neighbourhoods. The effects of neighbourhood species richness and climate on growth and δ13 C were modulated by the traits of focal trees and the traits of their neighbours. At either end of each drought-tolerance gradient, species responded in opposing directions during dry and wet years. We show that species' drought-tolerance traits can explain the strength and nature of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships in experimental tree communities experiencing drought. Mixing tree species can increase growth but may not universally relieve drought stress.

Forest Restoration and the Zoonotic Vector Anopheles balabacensis in Sabah, Malaysia

Anthropogenic changes to forest cover have been linked to an increase in zoonotic diseases. In many areas, natural forests are being replaced with monoculture plantations, such as oil palm, which reduce biodiversity and create a mosaic of landscapes with increased forest edge habitat and an altered micro-climate. These altered conditions may be facilitating the spread of the zoonotic malaria parasite Plasmodium knowlesi in Sabah, on the island of Borneo, through changes to mosquito vector habitat. We conducted a study on mosquito abundance and diversity in four different land uses comprising restored native forest, degraded native forest, an oil palm estate and a eucalyptus plantation, these land uses varying in their vegetation types and structure. The main mosquito vector, Anopheles balabacensis, has adapted its habitat preference from closed canopy rainforest to more open logged forest and plantations. The eucalyptus plantations (Eucalyptus pellita) assessed in this study contained significantly higher abundance of many mosquito species compared with the other land uses, whereas the restored dipterocarp forest had a low abundance of all mosquitos, in particular, An. balabacensis. No P. knowlesi was detected by PCR assay in any of the vectors collected during the study; however, P. inui, P. fieldi and P. vivax were detected in An. balabacensis. These findings indicate that restoring degraded natural forests with native species to closed canopy conditions reduces abundance of this zoonotic malarial mosquito vector and therefore should be incorporated into future restoration research and potentially contribute to the control strategies against simian malaria.

Quo vadis, smallholder forest landscape? An introduction to the LPB-RAP model

The impacts of the Anthropocene on climate and biodiversity pose societal and ecological problems that may only be solved by ecosystem restoration. Local to regional actions are required, which need to consider the prevailing present and future conditions of a certain landscape extent. Modeling approaches can be of help to support management efforts and to provide advice to policy making. We present stage one of the LaForeT-PLUC-BE model (Landscape Forestry in the Tropics-PCRaster Land Use Change-Biogeographic & Economic model; in short: LPB) and its thematic expansion module RAP (Restoration Areas Potentials). LPB-RAP is a high-resolution pixel-based scenario tool that relies on a range of explicit land use types (LUTs) to describe various forest types and the environment. It simulates and analyzes future landscape configurations under consideration of climate, population and land use change long-term. Simulated Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) builds on dynamic, probabilistic modeling incorporating climatic and anthropogenic determinants as well as restriction parameters to depict a sub-national regional smallholder-dominated forest landscape. The model delivers results for contrasting scenario settings by simulating without and with potential Forest and Landscape Restoration (FLR) measures. FLR potentials are depicted by up to five RAP-LUTs. The model builds on user-defined scenario inputs, such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Model application is here exemplified for the SSP2-RCP4.5 scenario in the time frame 2018-2100 on the hectare scale in annual resolution using Esmeraldas province, Ecuador, as a case study area. The LPB-RAP model is a novel, heuristic Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) tool for smallholder-dominated forest landscapes, supporting near-time top-down planning measures with long-term bottom-up modeling. Its application should be followed up by FLR on-site investigations and stakeholder participation across all involved scales.

Compositional changes at neighborhood and stand scales during recovery of a tropical lowland rainforest after shifting cultivation on Hainan Island, China

Understanding compositional changes during secondary forest recovery is crucial for effective restoration efforts. While previous research has predominantly focused on shifts in species composition at the stand scale, this study delves into the recovery dynamics in three compositional aspects of location (neighbor distances), size (tree diameters), and species (tree species) at both stand and neighborhood scale. The investigation spans nine chronosequence plots within a tropical lowland rainforest ecosystem after shifting cultivation, including three each for young-secondary forests (18-30 years), old-secondary forests (60 years), and old-growth forests (without obvious human interference). The quantification of location, size, and species composition involved categorized neighbor distances (Near, Moderate, Far-distance), tree diameters (Small, Medium, Large-tree), and tree species (Pioneer, Intermediate, Climax-species) into three groups, respectively. Compositional changes at the stand scale (plot) were directly based on these groups, while at the neighborhood scale, assessment involved combination types of these groups within a neighborhood (comprising three adjacent trees). At the stand scale, neighbor distances shifted from Near to Moderate and Far, tree diameters transitioned from Small to Medium and Large, and tree species of Pioneer gave way to Climax. Meanwhile, at the neighborhood scale, there was a notable decline in the aggregations of Near-distance (N), Small-tree (S), and Pioneer-species (P), while the mixtures of Far and Moderate-distance (F-M), Large and Small-tree (L-S), and Climax and Intermediate-species (C-I) experienced a marked increase. The compositional change exhibited a recovery pattern, with the fastest recovery in neighbor distances, followed by tree diameters and tree species. Moreover, compositional recovery in tree diameters and tree species at the neighborhood scale generally lagged behind that at the stand scale. The study suggests that rapid restoration of secondary forest can be achieved by different targeted cutting according to the recovery stages, aimed at reduce the Pioneer-species, Small-tree and Near-distance in neighborhood. Our findings underscore that analyzing the compositional changes in three aspects at two scales not only provides a profound understanding of secondary forest recovery dynamics, but also offers valuable insights for guiding practices in the restoration of degraded forest ecosystems.

Targeted rainfall enhancement as an objective of forestation

Forestation efforts are accelerating across the globe in the fight against global climate change, in order to restore biodiversity, and to improve local livelihoods. Yet, so far the non-local effects of forestation on rainfall have largely remained a blind spot. Here we build upon emerging work to propose that targeted rainfall enhancement may also be considered in the prioritization of forestation. We show that the tools to achieve this are rapidly becoming available, but we also identify drawbacks and discuss which further developments are still needed to realize robust assessments of the rainfall effects of forestation in the face of climate change. Forestation programs may then mitigate not only global climate change itself but also its adverse effects in the form of drying.

Meta-analysis of carbon stocks and biodiversity outcomes across Brazilian restored biomes

Ecosystem restoration strategies vary widely in the techniques applied and ecological contexts. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate how restoration success varies across socio-ecological contexts, taxonomic groups and biomes. Restoration success is quantified as the percentage of each ecological metric value attained in the restoration site compared to the reference systems. We show that restoration success is different for plants, animals, and soils and across ecological indicators. Abundance of individuals is easier to restore than carbon stocks, which are easier than species diversity. However, abundance may be a poor indicator of ecosystem recovery because there is no unidirectional trend over time, and abundance often fails to distinguish restored from degraded areas. We also found that carbon stocks in the soil and in the vegetation are restored at analogous paces, but the recovery of soil carbon stocks is less variable than plant stocks across sites. Our results demonstrate that different restoration techniques are effective in recovering diversity and carbon stocks, but assisted natural regeneration showed a slightly higher success compared to other strategies. However, there is a considerable difficulty in restoring converted and degraded areas to achieve conditions similar to the original ecosystems. It is critical and timely to investigate benefits and effectiveness of ecosystem restoration techniques to biodiversity and carbon recovery different ecosystem types to improve the restoration effectiveness.

Revegetation through seeding or planting: A worldwide systematic map

Roughly 2 billion ha of land are degraded and in need of ecological restoration worldwide. Active restoration frequently involves revegetation, which leads to the dilemma of whether to conduct direct seeding or to plant nursery-grown seedlings. The choice of revegetation method can regulate plant survival and performance, with economic implications that ultimately feed back to our capacity to conduct restoration. We followed a peer-reviewed protocol to develop a systematic map that collates, describes and catalogues the available studies on how seeding compares to planting in achieving restoration targets. We compiled a database with the characteristics of all retrieved studies, which can be searched to identify studies of particular locations and habitats, objectives of restoration, plant material, technical aspects, and outcomes measured. The search was made in eight languages and retrieved 3355 publications, of which 178 were retained. The systematic map identifies research gaps, such as a lack of studies in the global South, in tropical rainforests, and covering a long time period, which represent opportunities to expand field-based research. Additionally, many studies overlooked reporting on important technical aspects such as seed provenance and nursery cultivation methods, and others such as watering or seedling protection were more frequently applied for planting than for seeding, which limits our capacity to learn from past research. Most studies measured outcomes related to the target plants but avoided measuring general restoration outcomes or economic aspects. This represents a relevant gap in research, as the choice of revegetation method is greatly based on economic aspects and the achievement of restoration goals goes beyond the establishment of plants. Finally, we identified a substantial volume of studies conducted in temperate regions and over short periods (0-5 y). This research cluster calls for a future in-depth synthesis, potentially through meta-analysis, to reveal the overall balance between seeding and planting and assess whether the response to this question is mediated by species traits, environmental characteristics, or technical aspects. Besides identifying research clusters and gaps, the systematic map database allows managers to find the most relevant scientific literature on the appropriateness of seeding vs. planting for particular conditions, such as certain species or habitats.

Priority areas and benefits of ecosystem restoration in Beijing

Ecological restoration can significantly improve ecosystem services and human well-being and provide a basis for regional coordinated development and ecological security. To guide restoration efforts, information on the potential benefits of restoration was required to efficiently target investments. Although the number of studies focusing on ecosystem restoration has increased in recent decades, priority areas that integrate ecological and economic benefits have yet to be identified. We developed and applied a prioritization approach to identify potential priority sites in Beijing. We used the historical environmental data on Beijing to identify areas of degradation and to assess the feasibility of restoration. Ecosystem service and quality degradation, low ecosystem quality, and soil erosion were integrated into one index to indicate the restoration importance. Potential restoration benefits were mapped using the monetary value of six ecosystem services. Based on the importance and benefits of restoration, three scenarios were developed to identify priority restoration areas. In Beijing, restoring 30% of the degraded area (1531 km²) in priority areas by 2050 could increase the annual ecological benefit by more than 5 billion yuan, or approximately 787 million USD, and could decrease the ecological degradation index by 50%. By integrating explicit spatial information on restoration importance and restoration benefits, this methodology provides a feasible way to identify restoration priority areas and assess restoration benefits.

Cost-effective restoration for carbon sequestration across Brazil's biomes

Tropical ecosystems are central to the global focus on halting and reversing habitat destruction as a means of mitigating carbon emissions. Brazil has been highlighted as a vital part of global climate agreements because, whilst ongoing land-use change causes it to be the world's fifth biggest greenhouse gas emitting country, it also has one of the greatest potentials to implement ecosystem restoration. Global carbon markets provide the opportunity of a financially viable way to implement restoration projects at scale. However, except for rainforests, the restoration potential of many major tropical biomes is not widely recognised, with the result that carbon sequestration potential may be squandered. We synthesize data on land availability, land degradation status, restoration costs, area of native vegetation remaining, carbon storage potential and carbon market prices for 5475 municipalities across Brazil's major biomes, including the savannas and tropical dry forests. Using a modelling analysis, we determine how fast restoration could be implemented across these biomes within existing carbon markets. We argue that even with a sole focus on carbon, we must restore other tropical biomes, as well as rainforests, to effectively increase benefits. The inclusion of dry forests and savannas doubles the area which could be restored in a financially viable manner, increasing the potential CO₂e sequestered >40 % above that offered by rainforests alone. Importantly, we show that in the short-term avoiding emissions through conservation will be necessary for Brazil to achieve it's 2030 climate goal, because it can sequester 1.5 to 4.3 Pg of CO₂e by 2030, relative to 0.127 Pg CO₂e from restoration. However, in the longer term, restoration across all biomes in Brazil could draw down between 3.9 and 9.8 Pg of CO₂e from the atmosphere by 2050 and 2080.

Tree islands enhance biodiversity and functioning in oil palm landscapes

In the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration1, large knowledge gaps persist on how to increase biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in cash crop-dominated tropical landscapes2. Here, we present findings from a large-scale, 5-year ecosystem restoration experiment in an oil palm landscape enriched with 52 tree islands, encompassing assessments of ten indicators of biodiversity and 19 indicators of ecosystem functioning. Overall, indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, as well as multidiversity and ecosystem multifunctionality, were higher in tree islands compared to conventionally managed oil palm. Larger tree islands led to larger gains in multidiversity through changes in vegetation structure. Furthermore, tree enrichment did not decrease landscape-scale oil palm yield. Our results demonstrate that enriching oil palm-dominated landscapes with tree islands is a promising ecological restoration strategy, yet should not replace the protection of remaining forests.

Abandoning land transforms biodiversity

Land abandonment is critical when assessing global biodiversity and conservation.

Assessing the recovery in species, size and location diversities of a lowland tropical rainforest after shifting cultivation by multiple indices at stand and neighborhood scales

Tropical forests are rapidly being converted for agricultural use, but abandoned agricultural lands can recover naturally through secondary succession. However, comprehensive knowledges of how species composition, size structure and spatial patterning (represented by species, size and location diversities) change during recovery at multiple scales are still lacking. Our aim was to explore these change patterns to understand the underlying mechanisms of forest recovery and propose corresponding solutions for restoring regrowing secondary forests. Here, twelve 1ha forest dynamics plots (4 plots each in young-secondary forests (YS), old-secondary forests (OS) and old-growth forests (OG) from a chronosequence of tropical lowland rainforest after shifting cultivation) were used to assessed the recovery in species, size and location diversity of trees at stand (plot) and neighborhood (focal tree and its neighbors) scale by using 8 indices. The relative recoveries of YS and OS were quantified by dividing each of the indices in YS and OS to those in OG. Results showed that species and size diversity increased while location diversity decreased with the recovery process. The relative recovery of location diversity was higher than those of species and size diversity in both YS and OS, while species diversity was only higher than size diversity in YS. The relative recovery of species diversity at neighborhood scale was higher than that at stand scale in OS, while there were no differences between scales in size and location diversity. Additionally, using only the Shannon index and Gini coefficient at two scales can provide consistent insights into the recovery patterns of diversity as indicated by the 8 indices. Our study demonstrated that recovery rates of secondary forests relative to old-growth counterparts could be comprehensively quantified using multiple diversity indices in three types at two scales. This quantitative assessment on the relative recovery of disturbed forests could be helpful in applying appropriate management activities and selecting rational approaches to speed up restoration process of degraded forest ecosystems.

Incentives and barriers to private finance for forest and landscape restoration

Increased private finance can accelerate forest and landscape restoration globally. Here we conduct semi-structured interviews with asset managers, corporations and restoration finance experts to examine incentives and barriers to private restoration finance. Next, we assess what type of restoration projects and regions appeal to different private funders and how current financial barriers can be overcome. We show that market incentives for corporations include meeting net-emission-reduction commitments, impact and sustainable branding opportunities, and promotion of sustainability in supply chains. Conversely, asset managers face stronger barriers to investing in restoration as it is deemed a high-risk, unknown investment with low profitability. We find that investment finance biases towards restoration projects in low-risk areas and corporate finance towards areas with business presence. Both private finance types tend to omit projects focusing on natural regeneration. Through expanded and diversified markets for restoration benefits, strong public policy support and new financial instruments, private finance for restoration can be scaled for a wider variety of restoration projects in more diverse geographical contexts.

Beyond ecology: ecosystem restoration as a process for social-ecological transformation

Ecosystem restoration conventionally focuses on ecological targets. However, while ecological targets are crucial to mobilizing political, social, and financial capital, they do not encapsulate the need to: integrate social, economic, and ecological dimensions and systems approaches; reconcile global targets and local objectives; and measure the rate of progress toward multiple and synergistic goals. Restoration is better conceived as an inclusive social-ecological process that integrates diverse values, practices, knowledge, and restoration objectives across temporal and spatial scales and stakeholder groups. Taking a more process-based approach will ultimately enable greater social-ecological transformation, greater restoration effectiveness, and more long-lasting benefits to people and nature across time and place.

How Social Considerations Improve the Equity and Effectiveness of Ecosystem Restoration

Ecosystem restoration is an important means to address global sustainability challenges. However, scientific and policy discourse often overlooks the social processes that influence the equity and effectiveness of restoration interventions. In the present article, we outline how social processes that are critical to restoration equity and effectiveness can be better incorporated in restoration science and policy. Drawing from existing case studies, we show how projects that align with local people's preferences and are implemented through inclusive governance are more likely to lead to improved social, ecological, and environmental outcomes. To underscore the importance of social considerations in restoration, we overlay existing global restoration priority maps, population, and the Human Development Index (HDI) to show that approximately 1.4 billion people, disproportionately belonging to groups with low HDI, live in areas identified by previous studies as being of high restoration priority. We conclude with five action points for science and policy to promote equity-centered restoration.

Landscape-scale forest cover drives the predictability of forest regeneration across the Neotropics

Abandonment of agricultural lands promotes the global expansion of secondary forests, which are critical for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services. Such roles largely depend, however, on two essential successional attributes, trajectory and recovery rate, which are expected to depend on landscape-scale forest cover in nonlinear ways. Using a multi-scale approach and a large vegetation dataset (843 plots, 3511 tree species) from 22 secondary forest chronosequences distributed across the Neotropics, we show that successional trajectories of woody plant species richness, stem density and basal area are less predictable in landscapes (4 km radius) with intermediate (40-60%) forest cover than in landscapes with high (greater than 60%) forest cover. This supports theory suggesting that high spatial and environmental heterogeneity in intermediately deforested landscapes can increase the variation of key ecological factors for forest recovery (e.g. seed dispersal and seedling recruitment), increasing the uncertainty of successional trajectories. Regarding the recovery rate, only species richness is positively related to forest cover in relatively small (1 km radius) landscapes. These findings highlight the importance of using a spatially explicit landscape approach in restoration initiatives and suggest that these initiatives can be more effective in more forested landscapes, especially if implemented across spatial extents of 1-4 km radius.

Fifteen essential science advances needed for effective restoration of the world's forest landscapes

There has never been a more pressing and opportune time for science and practice to collaborate towards restoration of the world's forests. Multiple uncertainties remain for achieving successful, long-term forest landscape restoration (FLR). In this article, we use expert knowledge and literature review to identify knowledge gaps that need closing to advance restoration practice, as an introduction to a landmark theme issue on FLR and the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. Aligned with an Adaptive Management Cycle for FLR, we identify 15 essential science advances required to facilitate FLR success for nature and people. They highlight that the greatest science challenges lie in the conceptualization, planning and assessment stages of restoration, which require an evidence base for why, where and how to restore, at realistic scales. FLR and underlying sciences are complex, requiring spatially explicit approaches across disciplines and sectors, considering multiple objectives, drivers and trade-offs critical for decision-making and financing. The developing tropics are a priority region, where scientists must work with stakeholders across the Adaptive Management Cycle. Clearly communicated scientific evidence for action at the outset of restoration planning will enable donors, decision makers and implementers to develop informed objectives, realistic targets and processes for accountability. This article paves the way for 19 further articles in this theme issue, with author contributions from across the world. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

A practice-led assessment of landscape restoration potential in a biodiversity hotspot

Effective restoration planning tools are needed to mitigate global carbon and biodiversity crises. Published spatial assessments of restoration potential are often at large scales or coarse resolutions inappropriate for local action. Using a Tanzanian case study, we introduce a systematic approach to inform landscape restoration planning, estimating spatial variation in cost-effectiveness, based on restoration method, logistics, biomass modelling and uncertainty mapping. We found potential for biomass recovery across 77.7% of a 53 000 km2 region, but with some natural spatial discontinuity in moist forest biomass, that was previously assigned to human causes. Most areas with biomass deficit (80.5%) were restorable through passive or assisted natural regeneration. However, cumulative biomass gains from planting outweighed initially high implementation costs meaning that, where applicable, this method yielded greater long-term returns on investment. Accounting for ecological, funding and other uncertainty, the top 25% consistently cost-effective sites were within protected areas and/or moderately degraded moist forest and savanna. Agro-ecological mosaics had high biomass deficit but little cost-effective restoration potential. Socio-economic research will be needed to inform action towards environmental and human development goals in these areas. Our results highlight value in long-term landscape restoration investments and separate treatment of savannas and forests. Furthermore, they contradict previously asserted low restoration potential in East Africa, emphasizing the importance of our regional approach for identifying restoration opportunities across the tropics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

A systems approach framework for evaluating tree restoration interventions for social and ecological outcomes in rural tropical landscapes

The science guiding design and evaluation of restoration interventions in tropical landscapes is dominated by ecological processes and outcomes and lacks indicators and methods that integrate human wellbeing into the restoration process. We apply a new systems approach framework for tree restoration in forest-agricultural landscapes to show how this shortcoming can be addressed. Demonstrating 'proof of concept', we tested statistical models underlying the framework pathways with data collected from a case study in Tanzania. Local community perceptions of nature's values were not affected by levels of self-reported wildlife-induced crop damage. But mapped predictions from the systems approach under a tree restoration scenario suggested differential outcomes for biodiversity indicators and altered spatial patterns of crop damage risk, expected to jeopardize human wellbeing. The predictions map anticipated trade-offs in costs and benefits of restoration scenarios, which we have started to explore with stakeholders to identify restoration opportunities that consider local knowledge, value systems and human wellbeing. We suggest that the framework be applied to other landscapes to identify commonalities and differences in forest landscape restoration outcomes under varying governance and land use systems. This should form a foundation for evidence-based implementation of the global drive for forest landscape restoration, at local scales. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Identifying hotspots for ecosystem restoration across heterogeneous tropical savannah-dominated regions

There is high potential for ecosystem restoration across tropical savannah-dominated regions, but the benefits that could be gained from this restoration are rarely assessed. This study focuses on the Brazilian Cerrado, a highly species-rich savannah-dominated region, as an exemplar to review potential restoration benefits using three metrics: net biomass gains, plant species richness and ability to connect restored and native vegetation. Localized estimates of the most appropriate restoration vegetation type (grassland, savannah, woodland/forest) for pasturelands are produced. Carbon sequestration potential is significant for savannah and woodland/forest restoration in the seasonally dry tropics (net biomass gains of 58.2 ± 37.7 and 130.0 ± 69.4 Mg ha-1). Modelled restoration species richness gains were highest in the central and south-east of the Cerrado for savannahs and grasslands, and in the west and north-west for woodlands/forests. The potential to initiate restoration projects across the whole of the Cerrado is high and four hotspot areas are identified. We demonstrate that landscape restoration across all vegetation types within heterogeneous tropical savannah-dominated regions can maximize biodiversity and carbon gains. However, conservation of existing vegetation is essential to minimizing the cost and improving the chances of restoration success. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Magnago LF, Heringer G, Viana Neri A, Buttschardt T, Dudeque Zenni R, Tavares de Menezes LF, Zamborlini Saiter F, Reynaud Schaefer CEG, Vieira Hissa Safar N, Pacheco Da Silva M, Simonelli M, Martins SV, Brancalion PHS, A. Meira-Neto JA. Invasive alien acacias rapidly stock carbon, but threaten biodiversity recovery in young second-growth forests

Under the UN-Decade of Ecosystem Restoration and Bonn Challenge, second-growth forest is promoted as a global solution to climate change, degradation and associated losses of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Second growth is often invaded by alien tree species and understanding how this impacts carbon stock and biodiversity recovery is key for restoration planning. We assessed carbon stock and tree diversity recovery in second growth invaded by two Acacia species and non-invaded second growth, with associated edge effects, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Carbon stock recovery in non-invaded forests was threefold lower than in invaded forests. Increasingly isolated, fragmented and deforested areas had low carbon stocks when non-invaded, whereas the opposite was true when invaded. Non-invaded forests recovered threefold to sixfold higher taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity than invaded forest. Higher species turnover and lower nestedness in non-invaded than invaded forests underpinned higher abundance of threatened and endemic species in non-invaded forest. Non-invaded forests presented positive relationships between carbon and biodiversity, whereas in the invaded forests we did not detect any relationship, indicating that more carbon does not equal more biodiversity in landscapes with high vulnerability to invasive acacias. To deliver on combined climate change and biodiversity goals, restoration planning and management must consider biological invasion risk. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

The role of incentive mechanisms in promoting forest restoration

Forest restoration has been proposed as a scalable nature-based solution to achieve global environmental and socio-economic outcomes and is central to many policy initiatives, such as the Bonn Challenge. Restored forests contain appreciable biodiversity, improve habitat connectivity and sequester carbon. Incentive mechanisms (e.g. payments for ecosystem services and allocation of management rights) have been a focus of forest restoration efforts for decades. Yet, there is still little understanding of their role in promoting restoration success. We conducted a systematic literature review to investigate how incentive mechanisms are used to promote forest restoration, outcomes, and the biophysical and socio-economic factors that influence implementation and program success. We found that socio-economic factors, such as governance, monitoring systems and the experience and beliefs of participants, dominate whether or not an incentive mechanism is successful. We found that approximately half of the studies report both positive ecological and socio-economic outcomes. However, reported adverse outcomes were more commonly socio-economic than ecological. Our results reveal that achieving forest restoration at a sufficient scale to meet international commitments will require stronger assessment and management of socio-economic factors that enable or constrain the success of incentive mechanisms. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Multicriteria spatial model to prioritize degraded areas for landscape restoration through agroforestry

Reconciling the restoration of ecosystem services within agricultural landscapes is an effort that has been advancing within degraded areas restoration through agroforestry systems. However, to contribute to the effectiveness of these initiatives, it is essential to integrate landscape vulnerability and local demands to better highlight in which areas the implementation of agroforestry systems should be prioritized. Thus, we developed a spatial hierarchization methodology as a decision support tool as an active strategy for agroecosystem restoration. The proposed method constitutes a spatial indicator of priority areas to guide agroforestry interventions, including resource allocation and public policies for payment for environmental services. The methodology consists of Multicriteria Decision Analysis implemented in GIS software by combining input datasets based on biophysical conditions, environmental and socioeconomic aspects, that integrated promotes an assessment of the environment fragility, the pressures and responses to land use dynamic; a strategy for landscape restoration and conservation of the natural habitats, and multiple specific scenarios for decision making regarding the agricultural and the local actors demands. The output of the model provides the spatial distribution of areas suitable for the implementation of agroforestry systems, sorted into four priority levels (Low, Medium, High, and Extreme priority). The method is a promising tool proposal for territorial management and governance and subsidizes future research on the flows of ecosystem services.•Assessment of the environment fragility and the pressures and responses to land use dynamic.•Strategy for landscape restoration and conservation of remaining natural habitats.•Multiple specific scenarios for decision making regarding the agricultural and the local actors demands.

Current trends suggest most Asian countries are unlikely to meet future biodiversity targets on protected areas

Aichi Target 11 committed governments to protect ≥17% of their terrestrial environments by 2020, yet it was rarely achieved, raising questions about the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework goal to protect 30% by 2030. Asia is a challenging continent for such targets, combining high biodiversity with dense human populations. Here, we evaluated achievements in Asia against Aichi Target 11. We found that Asia was the most underperforming continent globally, with just 13.2% of terrestrial protected area (PA) coverage, averaging 14.1 ± SE 1.8% per country in 2020. 73.1% of terrestrial ecoregions had <17% representation and only 7% of PAs even had an assessment of management effectiveness. We found that a higher agricultural land in 2015 was associated with lower PA coverage today. Asian countries also showed a remarkably slow average annual pace of 0.4 ± SE 0.1% increase of PA extent. These combined lines of evidence suggest that the ambitious 2030 targets are unlikely to be achieved in Asia unless the PA coverage to increase 2.4-5.9 times faster. We provided three recommendations to support Asian countries to meet their post-2020 biodiversity targets: complete reporting and the wider adoption "other effective area-based conservation measures"; restoring disturbed landscapes; and bolstering transboundary PAs.

Soil nematode community assembly in a primary tropical lowland rainforest

More than half of the world's tropical lowland rainforests have been lost due to conversion to agricultural land (such as rubber plantations). Thus, ecological restoration in degraded tropical lowland rainforests is crucial. The first step to restoration is restoring soil functioning (i.e., soil fertility, carbon, and nitrogen cycling) to levels similar to those in the primary tropical lowland rainforest. This requires understanding soil nematode community assembly in primary tropical lowland rainforest, which has never been explored in this habitat. In this study, we measured species compositions of plant and soil nematode communities and soil characteristics (pH, total and available nitrogen, phosphorus, and soil water content) in a primary tropical lowland rainforest, which is located on Hainan Island, China. We performed two tests (the null-model test and distance-based Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM) and redundancy analysis-based variance partitioning) to quantify the relative contribution of the deterministic (abiotic filtering and biotic interactions) and stochastic processes (random processes and dispersal limitation) to the soil nematode community. We found that a deterministic process (habitat filtering) determined nematode community assembly in our tropical lowland rainforest. Moreover, soil properties, but not plant diversity, were the key determinants of nematode community assembly. We have, for the first time, managed to identify factors that contribute to the nematode community assembly in the tropical lowland rainforest. This quantified community assembly mechanism can guide future soil functioning recovery of the tropical lowland rainforest.

Improved household living standards can restore dry tropical forests

Despite multiple approaches over the last several decades to harmonize conservation and development goals in the tropics, forest-dependent households remain the poorest in the world. Durable housing and alternatives to fuelwood for cooking are critical needs to reduce multi-dimensional poverty. These improvements also potentially reduce pressure on forests and alleviate forest degradation. We test this possibility in dry tropical forests of the Central Indian Highlands where tribal and other marginalized populations rely on forests for energy, construction materials, and other livelihood needs. Based on a remotely sensed measure of forest degradation and a 5000 household survey of forest use, we use machine learning (causal forests) and other statistical methods to quantify treatment effects of two improved living standards-alternatives to fuelwood for cooking and non-forest-based housing material-on forest degradation in 1, 2, and 5 km buffers around 500 villages. Both improved living standards had significant treatment effects (-0.030 ± 0.078, -0.030 ± 0.023, 95% CI), respectively, with negative values indicating less forest degradation, within 1 km buffers around villages. Treatment effects were lower with increasing distance from villages. Results suggest that improved living standards can both reduce forest degradation and alleviate poverty. Forest restoration efforts can target improved living standards for local communities without conflicts over land tenure or taking land out of production to plant trees.

Spatial indicator of priority areas for the implementation of agroforestry systems: An optimization strategy for agricultural landscapes restoration

The ecological functions restoration in agricultural areas is a major challenge on a landscape scale. In the specific case of active restoration through Agroforestry Systems (AFS), the absence of a specific direction hinders ecological restoration processes, especially in regions that prefer intensive agriculture. Thus, this study aims to develop a Spatial Indicator of Priority Areas to guide Agroforestry Systems implementation in agricultural landscapes. A spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MDCA) was carried out based on environmental factors: soil, geology and slope (which determine the natural vulnerability of the land) and anthropogenic factors: land use and land cover, forest fragments, potential land use capacity and legal protected areas in rural properties (which reflects human pressure and land use suitability). Subsequently, four priority levels were classified for agroforestry interventions: (1) Low priority; (2) Average priority; (3) High priority; (4) Extreme priority. A final map was made to identify priority areas for landscape recovery in 9 cities located at the mouth of the Mogi Guaçu River Hydrographic Basin, State of São Paulo, Brazil. Considering the natural vulnerability of the land and the multifunctional aspects of the landscape, the scenarios projection allowed a consensus for forest conservation and agricultural suitability perspectives. A final combination of the explored aspects culminated in the spatial indicator, which model foresees 22,300 ha available for urgent actions for restoration, reforestation and sustainable exploitation through agroforestry systems. We emphasize the challenges in reconciling the socioeconomic and ecological functions in the agroecosystem, however, the metric provides a more inclusive and assertive management strategy for natural resources and advances towards the goal of reforestation and implementation of payment for environmental services (PES) schemes.

Zoning of precipitation regimes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its surrounding areas responded by the vegetation distribution

Compared with other factors influencing vegetation patterns, such as light and temperature, precipitation has relatively large variability, especially on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), where the natural environment is extremely fragile and sensitive. However, the impact of precipitation regimes, rather than precipitation amount, on vegetation has seldom been revealed. This study characterised the precipitation regimes by both the amount and temporal distribution of precipitation and zoned the QTP as different precipitation regimes accordingly. The response of vegetation to such precipitation regimes was then investigated. The results indicate that the vegetation patterns are quite consistent with zoning, that is, there is a certain type or a few dominant types of vegetation in each sub-region divided by the precipitation regimes. The areas where the precipitation became more uniform within a year were concentrated in grassland and bare land, which benefits the restoration and improvement of the ecological environment of the plateau. The increase in precipitation variability in the south-eastern part of the plateau may lead to natural disasters such as floods and mudslides. This study provides a novel perspective to understand the distribution of vegetation patterns.

Seizing resilience windows to foster passive recovery in the forest-water interface in Amazonian lands

Forest regeneration has increased in many tropical abandoned lands and current restoration commitments in this region aim to restore over 1,400,000 km² of degraded land by 2030. Although regenerating forests recover biomass, biodiversity, and processes with time, the recovery trajectories may be uncertain due to past disturbances. Currently, there is a lack of knowledge to sustain the effectiveness of passive regeneration for the recovery of riparian forests and the adjacent waterbodies in the tropics, which may compromise the outcomes of ongoing and future tropical riparian restoration programs. We evaluated the drivers of riparian forest structural recovery and how this relates to stream conditions in 12 abandoned pasturelands in eastern Brazilian Amazonia. These pasturelands range across regeneration age (pasture (PA) - 0 to 4 years; young regeneration (YR) - 8 to 12 years; old regeneration (OR) - 18 to 22 years) and years of past land-use (PA - 23.25 average years of past land-use, YR - 18.25, OR - 7). We compared the conditions of these sites to 4 reference sites with conserved forests (REF, >100 years), where there was no recorded pasture use in the past. Short-term responses of forests and streams to passive regeneration indicated high ecosystem resilience after low to intermediate past land-use intensity, reflected in the improvement of stream ecosystems. Such high resilience is possibly attributable to low- to intermediate-intensity pasture-related disturbances, remaining forest matrix, and residual structures (e.g. roots, sprouts, and in-stream wood) observed in the area. Our results suggest a recovery by 12 to 20 years for riparian forests of this region. However, areas degraded by intensive land-use apparently showed delayed recovery. We conclude that seizing resilience windows (defined here as the period when ecosystems retain high potential resilience) is essential to foster passive recovery of riparian forests and streams more cost-effectively in the tropics.

Species-level tree crown maps improve predictions of tree recruit abundance in a tropical landscape

Predicting forest recovery at landscape scales will aid forest restoration efforts. The first step in successful forest recovery is tree recruitment. Forecasts of tree recruit abundance, derived from the landscape-scale distribution of seed sources (i.e., adult trees), could assist efforts to identify sites with high potential for natural regeneration. However, previous work revealed wide variation in the effect of seed sources on seedling abundance, from positive to no effect. We quantified the relationship between adult tree seed sources and tree recruits and predicted where natural recruitment would occur in a fragmented, tropical, agricultural landscape. We integrated species-specific tree crown maps generated from hyperspectral imagery and property ownership data with field data on the spatial distribution of tree recruits from five species. We then developed hierarchical Bayesian models to predict landscape-scale recruit abundance. Our models revealed that species-specific maps of tree crowns improved recruit abundance predictions. Conspecific crown area had a much stronger impact on recruitment abundance (8.00% increase in recruit abundance when conspecific tree density increases from zero to one tree; 95% credible interval (CI): 0.80% to 11.57%) than heterospecific crown area (0.03% increase with the addition of a single heterospecific tree, 95% CI: -0.60% to 0.68%). Individual property ownership was also an important predictor of recruit abundance: The best performing model had varying effects of conspecific and heterospecific crown area on recruit abundance, depending on individual property ownership. We demonstrate how novel remote sensing approaches and cadastral data can be used to generate high-resolution and landscape-level maps of tree recruit abundance. Spatial models parameterized with field, cadastral, and remote sensing data are poised to assist decision support for forest landscape restoration.

Key Areas of Ecological Restoration in Inner Mongolia Based on Ecosystem Vulnerability and Ecosystem Service

Inner Mongolia is located in China’s arid and semi-arid regions, with sensitive and fragile ecosystems at risk of increased desertification, necessitating ecological restoration. However, economic resources for large-scale ecological restoration are often scarce, so it is vital to identify key areas for ecological restoration. Previous desertification research has focused mainly on the condition and changes in soil or vegetation. However, not all changes in soil or vegetation directly impact humans. New perspectives are increasingly needed to bridge the gap between biophysical and human well-being. We construct a framework to identify priority restoration areas based on ecosystem services and ecosystem vulnerability over a long time series. The results show that: (1) soil conservation services in northeast and southwest Inner Mongolia have degraded. Sand fixation services in central and eastern Inner Mongolia have shown a degradation trend. Habitat quality has been generally stable and sporadic in the past 20 years. (2) The areas with higher ecosystem vulnerability are concentrated in the northeast, mainly due to higher climate exposure and climate sensitivity but relatively lower climate resilience in the northeast. (3) Compared with the results of ecological restoration areas identified based on the trends of traditional vegetation indicators (fractional vegetation cover and net primary productivity), we found a greater proportion of land in northeastern Inner Mongolia in need of restoration. Additionally, there was identified a decreased restoration proportion in southwestern Inner Mongolia to ensure the self-restoration and regulation of desert ecosystems, which is conducive to realizing nature-based solutions.

Predicting landscape-scale biodiversity recovery by natural tropical forest regrowth

Natural forest regrowth is a cost-effective, nature-based solution for biodiversity recovery, yet different socioenvironmental factors can lead to variable outcomes. A critical knowledge gap in forest restoration planning is how to predict where natural forest regrowth is likely to lead to high levels of biodiversity recovery, which is an indicator of conservation value and the potential provisioning of diverse ecosystem services. We sought to predict and map landscape-scale recovery of species richness and total abundance of vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants in tropical and subtropical second-growth forests to inform spatial restoration planning. First, we conducted a global meta-analysis to quantify the extent to which recovery of species richness and total abundance in second-growth forests deviated from biodiversity values in reference old-growth forests in the same landscape. Second, we employed a machine-learning algorithm and a comprehensive set of socioenvironmental factors to spatially predict landscape-scale deviation and map it. Models explained on average 34% of observed variance in recovery (range 9-51%). Landscape-scale biodiversity recovery in second-growth forests was spatially predicted based on socioenvironmental landscape factors (human demography, land use and cover, anthropogenic and natural disturbance, ecosystem productivity, and topography and soil chemistry); was significantly higher for species richness than for total abundance for vertebrates (median range-adjusted predicted deviation 0.09 vs. 0.34) and invertebrates (0.2 vs. 0.35) but not for plants (which showed a similar recovery for both metrics [0.24 vs. 0.25]); and was positively correlated for total abundance of plant and vertebrate species (Pearson r = 0.45, p = 0.001). Our approach can help identify tropical and subtropical forest landscapes with high potential for biodiversity recovery through natural forest regrowth.

Active fires show an increasing elevation trend in the tropical highlands

As an inherent element of the Earth's ecosystem, forest, and vegetation fires are one of the key contributors to and direct consequences of climate change. Given that topography is one of the key drivers of forest landscapes and fire behavior, it is important to clarify what the topographical characteristics and trends of global fire events are, particularly in the tropics. Here, we have investigated the variations in elevation of active fires at the continental to a global scale, including the tropics, the extra-tropics, the lowlands, and the highlands (greater than 200 m above sea level [asl]), using the available MODIS Collection 6 active fire products (2001-2019). The main conclusions are: (1) the annual totality (average of 4.5 million) of global active fire events decreased and over 97% of them occurred frequently below 1500 m asl. (2) The tropics and the highlands accounted for ~74% (±3%) and 71% (±2%) of global active fires, respectively, and 77% (±2%) were observed in the tropical highlands. (3) From the beginning of the 21st century, active fires in the highlands displayed an upward elevational trend, particularly in the tropics, while the opposite trend was observed for the lowlands. More importantly, the rate of the increasing elevation in the highlands had a greater magnitude than that of decreasing elevation in the lowlands. (4) Finally, the United Nations collaborative program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (UN-REDD) in Developing Countries seemed to slow down or even result in a reversal of the upward elevational trend of fire occurrences in the tropics for the partner countries, especially in the lowlands. In the context of global climate change and rampant fires, the trend of rising elevation for active fire occurrences, particularly in the tropical highlands, indicates that more vegetation burning events occur or will occur in hilly to mountainous areas, thus posing further threats to tropical forests and some important biodiversity refuges. More sustained efforts should be made by governments and the scientific community to instigate enhanced fire management practices and to conduct in-depth research programs.

The biodiversity and ecosystem service contributions and trade-offs of forest restoration approaches

Forest restoration is being scaled-up globally to deliver critical ecosystem services and biodiversity benefits, yet we lack rigorous comparison of co-benefit delivery across different restoration approaches. In a global synthesis, we use 25,950 matched data pairs from 264 studies in 53 countries to assess how delivery of climate, soil, water, and wood production services as well as biodiversity compares across a range of tree plantations and native forests. Carbon storage, water provisioning, and especially soil erosion control and biodiversity benefits are all delivered better by native forests, with compositionally simpler, younger plantations in drier regions performing particularly poorly. However, plantations exhibit an advantage in wood production. These results underscore important trade-offs among environmental and production goals that policymakers must navigate in meeting forest restoration commitments.

Neighbourhood Species Richness Reduces Crown Asymmetry of Subtropical Trees in Sloping Terrain

Reforestation in sloping terrain is an important measure for soil erosion control and sustainable watershed management. The mechanical stability of such reforested stands, however, can be low due to a strong asymmetric shape of tree crowns. We investigated how neighbourhood tree species richness, neighbourhood pressure, tree height, and slope inclination affect crown asymmetry in a large-scale plantation biodiversity-ecosystem functioning experiment in subtropical China (BEF-China) over eight years. We took the advantage of terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) measurements, which provide non-destructive, high-resolution data of tree structure without altering tree interactions. Neighbourhood species richness significantly reduced crown asymmetry, and this effect became stronger at steeper slopes. Our results suggest that tree diversity promotes the mechanical stability of forest stands in sloping terrain and highlight the importance of TLS-data for a comprehensive understanding of the role of tree diversity in modulating crown interactions in mixed-species forest plantations.

Tropical forests are home to over half of the world's vertebrate species

Tropical forests are renowned for their astonishing diversity of life, but the fundamental question of how many species occur in tropical forests remains unanswered. Using geographic range maps and data on species habitat associations, we determined that tropical forests harbor 62% of global terrestrial vertebrate species, more than twice the number found in any other terrestrial biome on Earth. Up to 29% of global vertebrate species are endemic to tropical forests, with more than 20% of these species at risk of extinction. Humid tropical forests (also known as tropical rainforests) and the Neotropics dominate as centers of species diversity, harboring more than 90% and nearly half of all tropical forest vertebrates, respectively. To maintain the biodiversity that underpins the ecosystem functions and services essential for human well-being, we emphasize the critical importance of environmental policies aimed at reducing tropical deforestation and mitigating deleterious anthropogenic pressures on these imperiled ecosystems.