The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants

A scoping review of tropical pioneer trees' roles for restoration and conservation management: Harungana madagascariensis (Hypericaceae) a widespread African species as a model

Background

Globally, biodiversity is declining rapidly, including tropical forests ecosystems in particular. To stop and reverse this trend, governments worldwide signed up to international agreements and initiatives, but success to date has been limited. In this context, reviewing pioneer trees' ecology, particularly the most widespread species, can help gauge their pros and cons and guide their judicious use for cost-effective ecological restoration projects.

Objectives

This study aims to review the potential of pioneer tree species for biodiversity conservation and forest restoration and identify eventual knowledge gaps, using a widespread species from Africa, Harungana madagascariensis Lam. (Hypericaceae), as a model. Our specific objective was to synthetize information on the distribution and habitat of H. madagascariensis; its documented interspecific ecological interactions; and its potential for forest restoration.

Methodology

A scoping review was conducted using multiple databases to identify relevant papers, supplemented by the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database (GBIF) to extract distribution records of H. madagascariensis. Following the PRISMA screening process for scoping reviews, 398 publications and 4,379 records from GBIF (2023) were used in the final analysis out of a total of 1,159 unique articles and 5,230 records originally retrieved.

Results

We show that H. madagascariensis, which is native to tropical Africa, Madagascar, and some islands of the Mascarenes, is a key component of young secondary forests, wetland areas, and grasslands. At least 125 species were found to interact directly with H. madagascariensis, including through commensalism, mutualism, and herbivory. It is recognized as a tool for restoration regionally, and considered as invasive in Australia where it has been introduced and, by some, in Mauritius where it is native. The benefits it provides for restoration include its capacity to improve degraded soil fertility, its ability to compete with invasive alien species mostly due to its heliophilous and fast-growing nature, and its good nurse tree potential along with its ecological interactions that support numerous species including threatened ones.

Conclusion

The widespread African pioneer tree H. madagascariensis plays a critical role in vegetation dynamic and holds great potential for fostering forest restoration and biodiversity conservation in its range of nearly 13 M km2. Its greater use in restoration projects could significantly accelerate ecological restoration, decrease its costs, and increase benefits to biodiversity, leading to larger areas being restored, contributing effectively to national and international objectives. However, a number of aspects deserve further studies, such as the species' role in multitrophic interactions and its precise interactions, and their strengths, with species in each of its specific geographical contexts and through different temporal scales.

Modelling of past, current and future distribution of suitable habitat for Menelik's bushbuck (Tragelaphus sylvaticus meneliki Neumann, 1902) in the Ethiopian highlands

BACKGROUND

Wildlife species adapted to the Afro-alpine highlands are vulnerable to loss of habitat due to global warming accompanying potential upward shifts and elevational range contractions of their preferred habitats. Understanding the trends in the shift of suitable habitats of endemic taxa is key to planning the conservation and management of species. Therefore, this study aimed to model the distribution of Menelik's bushbuck, a spiral-horned antelope endemic to Ethiopian highlands across the past (Last Glacial Maximum, and Mid-Holocene), present, and future.

METHODS

We performed the ensemble modelling implemented in the "sdm" R package using 6 modelling techniques (MaxEnt, Generalized Linear Model, Generalized Additive Model, Random Forest, Boosted Regression Tree, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines). We combined 248 occurrence points of Menelik's bushbuck with 12 climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic variables. We selected these variables from originally 24 variables using the VIF step procedure to avoid highly correlated predictor variables for the final model run.

RESULTS

The performance of the ensemble model was excellent having AUC = 0.97 and TSS = 0.88 values. Bio6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month) contributed most to the distribution of Menelik's bushbuck followed by bio12 (annual precipitation) and elevation. The model projection estimated the suitable habitat of Menelik's bushbuck steadily decreases with increasing representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios and projection years. The current suitable habitat of this species is estimated to be 25,546 km2 whereas the Mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum potential habitats was about 60,282.24 km2 and 33,652 km2 respectively. The magnitude of the loss of suitable habitats of Menelik's bushbuck will be highest in 2050 and 2070 under RCP 8.5 climate scenarios showing the loss in the currently suitable habitats of this species is over 95.1% and 99.8% respectively.

CONCLUSION

Melelik's bushbuck has lost suitable habitat since the LGM and the loss will be greatest in the future due to climate change and land use change. The sharp decline of the suitable habitat will greatly threaten the future survival of the species. Our modelling can assist in identifying potential refuge areas for the species to assist in its preservation.

Tropical Land-Use Change Disrupts Zeta-Diversity Across Taxa

Land-use change causes community turnover via local extinction and colonisation of species, driving biotic homogenization or heterogenization at larger spatial scales. Quantification of these processes has focused on beta-diversity metrics, which upweight rarity and overlook the role of widespread species. A key knowledge gap is understanding the impact of land-use change on both rare and widespread species-zeta-diversity-allowing the detection of statistical patterns and drivers based on community turnover across space. We sampled bird, dung beetle, and orchid communities in 341 plots across natural (Andean forests and paramo) and transformed habitats (pasturelands) spanning ~270 km north-to-south in the Colombian Andes. We detected major losses in species richness following land-use conversion, which disrupts zeta-diversity across elevation in two ways. First, biodiversity patterns are rewired such that bird and dung beetle communities become structured by dispersal ability, overriding the effects of natural biogeographical drivers (i.e., elevation) and landscape conditions (i.e., canopy cover). Second, land-use change causes biotic homogenization across bird communities, with pasture retaining twice as many widespread species than natural habitats, and a four-fold reduction in widespread dung beetle species pointing to subtractive heterogenization. Orchid communities show high community turnover in both natural and transformed habitat. Our results show that the effect of local deforestation has a doubly devastating impact simplifying communities and reducing widespread species. Transforming natural habitats into anthropogenic landscapes may substantially raise extinction risk for communities composed of both widespread and rare species, especially in orchids as the most sensitive taxon.

Two Hypotheses About Climate Change and Species Distributions

Species' distributions are changing around the planet as a result of global climate change. Most research has focused on shifts in mean climate conditions, leaving the effects of increased environmental variability comparatively underexplored. This paper proposes two new macroecological hypotheses-the variability damping hypothesis and the variability adaptation hypothesis-to understand how ecological dynamics and evolutionary history could influence biogeographic patterns being forced by contemporary large-scale climate change across all major ecosystems. The variability damping hypothesis predicts that distributions of species living in deep water environments will be least affected by increasing climate-driven temperature variability compared with species in nearshore, intertidal and terrestrial environments. The variability adaptation hypothesis predicts the opposite. Where available, we discuss how the existing evidence aligns with these hypotheses and propose ways in which they may be empirically tested.

Forecasting habitat suitability of tropical karst plants in a warmer world - Thailand's Begonia diversity as a key example

Tropical karst habitats host a rich plant diversity, of which many species are edaphic specialists with narrow distribution ranges. Many of these plants are expected to be highly vulnerable to global climate change as a consequence of the substantial fragmentation of karst formations in combination with edaphic preferences and dispersal limitations. In recent years, the application of species distribution models to predict range under future climate scenarios has increasingly become a popular tool to guide conservation management approaches. Here, we examined the impact of climate change on the genus Begonia in Thailand using an ensemble modelling approach. The models incorporated climatic data and the geological characteristics of karst formations to reliably predict the distribution of species that reside within karst habitats. Our results revealed that the diversity of Begonia species in karst environments is primarily influenced by key climatic factors, including the mean temperature of the wettest quarter and annual precipitation, along with geographical features such as karst formations. Together, these elements significantly shape the distribution patterns of Begonia diversity in these unique habitats. Under current climatic conditions, clusters of suitable habitats for Begonia were found in Northern, South-Western, and Southern Thailand. The employed scenarios for future warmer climates converged to predict a substantial loss of currently suitable habitats. Applying the moderate SSP245 scenario, the model predicted range losses of 32.46% in 2050 that accumulate to 38.55% in 2070. Notably, more worrying predictions were obtained by applying the worst-case (SSP585) scenario, which projected a range loss of 37.73% in 2050 and increasing to 62.81% in 2070. In turn, the gain by areas becoming suitable was much lower than the loss. These results are highly consistent with the predicted high vulnerability of karst plants to global climatic change. Conservation efforts require taking into account these predictions by focusing on two key actions. Firstly, protecting areas where occurrences of Begonia are predicted to be less affected by climate change. The assignment of these areas to national parks thus far has not been achieved yet. Secondly, establishing practical conservation strategies for Begonia species occurring preliminary or even exclusively in karst landscapes.

The powerbend distribution provides a unified model for the species abundance distribution across animals, plants and microbes

Remarkably, almost every ecological community investigated to date is composed of many rare species and a few abundant species. While the precise nature of this species abundance distribution is believed to reflect fundamental ecological principles underlying community assembly, ecologists have yet to identify a single model that comprehensively explains all species abundance distributions. Recent studies using large datasets have suggested that the logseries distribution best describes animal and plant communities, while the Poisson lognormal distribution is the best model for microbes, thereby challenging the notion of a unifying species abundance distribution model across the tree of life. Here, using a large dataset of ~30,000 globally distributed communities spanning animals, plants and microbes from diverse environments, we show that the powerbend distribution, predicted by a maximum information entropy-based theory of ecology, emerges as a unifying model that accurately captures species abundance distributions of all life forms, habitats and abundance scales. Our findings challenge the notion of pure neutrality, suggesting instead that community assembly is driven by a combination of random fluctuations and deterministic mechanisms shaped by interspecific trait variation.

Global Availability of Plant DNA Barcodes as Genomic Resources to Support Basic and Policy-Relevant Biodiversity Research

Genetic technologies such as DNA barcoding make it easier and less expensive to monitor biodiversity and its associated ecosystem services, particularly in biodiversity hotspots where traditional assessments are challenging. Successful use of these data-driven technologies, however, requires access to appropriate reference data. We reviewed the >373,584 reference plant DNA barcodes in public repositories and found that they cumulatively cover a remarkable quarter of the ~435,000 extant land plant species (Embryophyta). Nevertheless, coverage gaps in tropical biodiversity hotspots reflect well-documented biases in biodiversity science - most reference specimens originated in the Global North. Currently, at least 17% of plant families lack any reference barcode data whatsoever, affecting tropical and temperate regions alike. Investigators often emphasise the importance of marker choice and the need to ensure protocols are technically capable of detecting and identifying a broad range of taxa. Yet persistent geographic and taxonomic gaps in the reference datasets show that these protocols rely upon risk undermining all downstream applications of the strategy, ranging from basic biodiversity monitoring to policy-relevant objectives - such as the forensic authentication of materials in illegal trade. Future networks of investigators could work strategically to improve data coverage, which will be essential in global efforts to conserve biodiversity while advancing more fair and equitable access to benefits arising from genetic resources.

The effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics: A systematic review

One of the main objectives of ecological research is to enhance our understanding of the processes that lead to species extinction. A potentially crucial extinction pattern is the dependence of contemporary biodiversity dynamics on past climates, also known as "climate legacy". However, the general impact of climate legacy on extinction dynamics is unknown. Here, we conduct a systematic review to summarize the effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics. We find that few works studying the relationship between extinction dynamics and climate include the potential impact of climate legacies (10%), with even fewer studies reaching beyond merely discussing them (3%). Among the studies that quantified climate legacies, six out of seven reported an improved fit of models to extinction dynamics, with most also describing substantial impacts of legacy effects on extinction risk. These include an increase in extinction risk of up to 40% when temperature changes add to a long-term trend in the same direction, as well as substantial effects on species' adaptations, population dynamics and juvenile recruitment. Various ecological processes have been identified in the literature as potential ways in which climate legacies could affect the vulnerability of modern ecosystems to anthropogenic climate change, including niche conservatism, physiological thresholds, time lags and cascading effects. Overall, we find high agreement that climate legacy is a crucial process shaping extinction dynamics. Incorporating climate legacies in biodiversity assessments could be a key step toward a better understanding of the ecological consequences arising from climate change.

The ecology of plant extinctions

Extinctions occur when enough individual plants die without replacement to extirpate a population, and all populations are extirpated. While the ultimate drivers of plant extinctions are known, the proximate mechanisms at individual and population level are not. The fossil record supports climate change as the major driver until recently, with land-use change dominating in recent millennia. Climate change may regain its leading role later this century. Documented recent extinctions have been few and concentrated among narrow-range species, but population extirpations are frequent. Predictions for future extinctions often use flawed methods, but more than half of all plants could be threatened by the end of this century. We need targeted interventions tailored to the needs of each threatened species.

Plant community and structural pattern analyses of Abraham Sacred Forest in Amhara Regional State, northwest Ethiopia

Owing to its topographic variations, Ethiopia is a biodiversity-rich country. However, the long-term degradation of resources has resulted in isolated forest patches largely around sacred places. Thus, this work was aimed to evaluate the plant community formation and structural dynamics of the Abraham Sacred Forest patch. Data were collected from 60 plots located on transect lines. Five subplots (4 m2), four at each corner and center, were set to collect juveniles' data. Individuals of each species and cover abundance were recorded, and adults' stem girth was measured. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to identify plant communities. A Kruskal-Wallis followed by Tukey's honestly significant difference test was performed to check the statistical significance among the plant communities. Shannon-Wiener diversity index, equitability index, and non-parametric species richness estimators were used to quantify species diversity, evenness, and richness, respectively. Structural parameters and size class ratios were used to analyze the vegetation structure and regeneration status. Seventy wood species, distributed in 62 genera and 38 families, were recorded. Fabaceae was the most species-rich (10 species) family. Three plant communities were identified. A Kruskal-Wallis test indicated that the community types showed significant differences (P < 0.05) with respect to altitude and slope. The density and basal area of the forest were 4580.4 ha-1 and 35.18 m2ha-1 respectively. The inverted J-shaped pattern in DBH classes implies a good reproduction status. However, importance value index and regeneration status analyses revealed that certain species, like Astropanax abyssinicum (Hochst. ex. A. Rich) Seem, Myrica salicifolia Hochst. ex. A. Rich and Dombeya torrida (G.F.Gmel) Bamps, require conservation priority.

The Anthropocene and the biodiversity crisis: an eco-evolutionary perspective

A major facet of the Anthropocene is global change, such as climate change, caused by human activities, which drastically affect biodiversity with all-scale declines and homogenization of biotas. This crisis does not only affect the ecological dynamics of biodiversity, but also its evolutionary dynamics, including genetic diversity, an aspect that is generally neglected. My tenet is therefore to consider biodiversity dynamics from an eco-evolutionary perspective, i.e. explicitly accounting for the possibility of rapid evolution and its feedback on ecological processes and the environment. I represent the impact of the various avatars of global change in a temporal perspective, from pre-industrial time to the near future, allowing to visualize their dynamics and to set desired values that should not be trespassed for a given time (e.g., +2 °C for 50 years from now). After presenting the impact of various stressors (e.g., climate change) on biodiversity, this representation is used to heuristically show the relevance of an eco-evolutionary perspective: (i) to analyze how biodiversity will respond to the stressors, for example by seeking out more suitable conditions or adapting to new conditions; (ii) to serve in predictive exercises to envision future dynamics (decades to centuries) under stressor impact; (iii) to propose nature-based solutions to the crisis. Significant obstacles stand in the way of the development of such an approach, in particular the general lack of interest in intraspecific diversity, and perhaps more generally a lack of understanding that, we, humans, are only a modest part of biodiversity.

Defining the limits of plant chemical space: challenges and estimations

The plant kingdom, encompassing nearly 400,000 known species, produces an immense diversity of metabolites, including primary compounds essential for survival and secondary metabolites specialized for ecological interactions. These metabolites constitute a vast and complex phytochemical space with significant potential applications in medicine, agriculture, and biotechnology. However, much of this chemical diversity remains unexplored, as only a fraction of plant species has been studied comprehensively. In this work, we estimate the size of the plant chemical space by leveraging large-scale metabolomics and literature datasets. We begin by examining the known chemical space, which, while containing at most several hundred thousand unique compounds, remains sparsely covered. Using data from over 1,000 plant species, we apply various mass spectrometry-based approaches-a formula prediction model, a de novo prediction model, a combination of library search and de novo prediction, and MS2 clustering-to estimate the number of unique structures. Our methods suggest that the number of unique compounds in the metabolomics dataset alone may already surpass existing estimates of plant chemical diversity. Finally, we project these findings across the entire plant kingdom, estimating that the total plant chemical space likely spans millions, if not more, with most still unexplored.

Trait-based ecology, trait-free ecology, and in between

Trait-based ecology has become a popular phrase. But all species have traits, and their contributions to ecological processes are governed by those traits. So then, is not all ecology trait-based? Actually, there do exist areas of ecology that are consciously trait-free, such as neutral theory and species abundance distributions. But much of ecology could be considered actually or potentially trait-based. A spectrum is described, from trait-free through trait-implicit and trait-explicit to trait-centric. Trait-centric ecology includes positioning ecological strategies along trait dimensions, with a view to inferring commonalities and to generalizing from species studied in more detail. Trait-explicit includes physiological and functional ecology, and areas of community ecology and ecosystem function that invoke traits. Trait-implicit topics are those where it is important that species are different, but formulations did not initially characterize the differences via traits. Subsequently, strands within these trait-implicit topics have often moved towards making use of species traits, so the boundary with trait-explicit is permeable. Trait-based ecology is productive because of the dialogue between understanding processes in detail, via traits that relate most closely, and generalizing across many species, via traits that can be compared widely. An enduring key question for trait-based ecology is which traits for which processes.

Global patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism in liverwort assemblages

Exploring the worldwide patterns of endemism and the processes that lead to the formation of high-endemism centers is crucial in biogeography. This study examines the geographic distribution and ecological influences on the endemism of liverworts across 390 regions worldwide. We assess phylogenetic endemism and relative phylogenetic endemism in relation to eleven environmental factors, which represent current and Quaternary climate variations, as well as topographic and environmental heterogeneity. Areas with higher endemism in liverworts tend to have higher temperatures, precipitation, and environmental heterogeneity, but lower temperature seasonality and lesser impacts from Quaternary climate changes. Regions exhibiting notably high endemism are predominantly found in tropical Asia, Madagascar, eastern Australia, and the Andes, while those with notably low endemism are generally in temperate Eurasia and North America, parts of Africa, and eastern South America. Centers of neo-endemism are mainly in southern Africa, whereas centers of paleo-endemism are in southern South America, tropical Asia, and New Zealand. Environment variability is a more significant predictor of phylogenetic endemism than current climate conditions, which are themselves more predictive than variables related to Quaternary climate changes. Nevertheless, these three types of explanatory variables combined explain only about one-third of the variance in phylogenetic endemism.

Refuting the hypothesis of Centinelan extinction at its place of origin

Scientists' limited understanding of tropical plant communities obscures the true extent of species loss caused by habitat destruction1. The Centinelan extinction hypothesis2,3 posits an extreme but widely referenced scenario wherein forest clearing causes the immediate extinction of species known only from a single geographic location. It remains unclear, however, whether the disappearance of such microendemics reflects their global extinction or insufficient collection effort at larger scales. Here we test these hypotheses by synthesizing decades of floristic data from the heavily deforested tropical cloud forest (TCF) at Centinela, Ecuador. We find that 99% of its putative microendemics have been collected elsewhere and are not extinct. Our field work also revealed new species, highlighting the enduring conservation value of TCFs and the intense efforts required to illuminate such plant diversity 'darkspots'4. Field and herbarium research remain essential to the conservation action needed to forestall large-scale plant extinctions in Earth's beleaguered cloud forests.

Understory plant biodiversity is inversely related to carbon storage in a high carbon ecosystem

Given that terrestrial ecosystems globally are facing the loss of biodiversity from land use conversion, invasive species, and climate change, effective management requires a better understanding of the drivers and correlates of biodiversity. Increasingly, biodiversity is co-managed with aboveground carbon storage because high biodiversity in animal species is observed to correlate with high aboveground carbon storage. Most previous investigations into the relationship of biodiversity and carbon co-management do not focus on the biodiversity of the species rich plant kingdom, which may have tradeoffs with carbon storage. To examine the relationships of plant species richness with aboveground tree biomass carbon storage, we used a series of generalized linear models with understory plant species richness and diversity data from the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis dataset and high-resolution modeled carbon maps for the Tongass National Forest. Functional trait data from the TRY database was used to understand the potential mechanisms that drive the response of understory plants. Understory species richness and community weighted mean leaf dry matter content decreased along an increasing gradient of tree biomass carbon storage, but understory diversity, community weighted mean specific leaf area, and plant height at maturity did not. Leaf dry matter content had little variance at the community level. The decline of understory plant species richness but not diversity to increases in aboveground biomass carbon storage suggests that rare species are excluded in aboveground biomass carbon dense areas. These decreases in understory species richness reflect a tradeoff between the understory plant community and aboveground carbon storage. The mechanisms that are associated with observed plant communities along a gradient of biomass carbon storage in this forest suggest that slower-growing plant strategies are less effective in the presence of high biomass carbon dense trees in the overstory.

Refocusing the microbial rare biosphere concept through a functional lens

The influential concept of the rare biosphere in microbial ecology has underscored the importance of taxa occurring at low abundances yet potentially playing key roles in communities and ecosystems. Here, we refocus the concept of rare biosphere through a functional trait-based lens and provide a framework to characterize microbial functional rarity, a combination of numerical scarcity across space or time and trait distinctiveness. We demonstrate how this novel interpretation of the rare biosphere, rooted in microbial functions, can enhance our mechanistic understanding of microbial community structure. It also sheds light on functionally distinct microbes, directing conservation efforts towards taxa harboring rare yet ecologically crucial functions.

Predicting undetected native vascular plant diversity at a global scale

Vascular plants are diverse and a major component of terrestrial ecosystems, yet their geographic distributions remain incomplete. Here, I present a global database of vascular plant distributions by integrating species distribution models calibrated to species' dispersal ability and natural habitats to predict native range maps for 201,681 vascular plant species into unsurveyed areas. Using these maps, I uncover unique patterns of native vascular plant diversity, endemism, and phylogenetic diversity revealing hotspots in underdocumented biodiversity-rich regions. These hotspots, based on detailed species-level maps, show a pronounced latitudinal gradient, strongly supporting the theory of increasing diversity toward the equator. I trained random forest models to extrapolate diversity patterns under unbiased global sampling and identify overlaps with modeled estimations but unveiled cryptic hotspots that were not captured by modeled estimations. Only 29% to 36% of extrapolated plant hotspots are inside protected areas, leaving more than 60% outside and vulnerable. However, the unprotected hotspots harbor species with unique attributes that make them good candidates for conservation prioritization.

Inferring the extinction risk of marine fish to inform global conservation priorities

While extinction risk categorization is fundamental for building robust conservation planning for marine fishes, empirical data on occurrence and vulnerability to disturbances are still lacking for most marine teleost fish species, preventing the assessment of their International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) status. In this article, we predicted the IUCN status of marine fishes based on two machine learning algorithms, trained with available species occurrences, biological traits, taxonomy, and human uses. We found that extinction risk for marine fish species is higher than initially estimated by the IUCN, increasing from 2.5% to 12.7%. Species predicted as Threatened were mainly characterized by a small geographic range, a relatively large body size, and a low growth rate. Hotspots of predicted Threatened species peaked mainly in the South China Sea, the Philippine Sea, the Celebes Sea, the west coast Australia and North America. We also explored the consequences of including these predicted species' IUCN status in the prioritization of marine protected areas through conservation planning. We found a marked increase in prioritization ranks for subpolar and polar regions despite their low species richness. We suggest to integrate multifactorial ensemble learning to assess species extinction risk and offer a more complete view of endangered taxonomic groups to ultimately reach global conservation targets like the extending coverage of protected areas where species are the most vulnerable.

Forecasting potential invaders to prevent future biological invasions worldwide

The ever-increasing and expanding globalisation of trade and transport underpins the escalating global problem of biological invasions. Developing biosecurity infrastructures is crucial to anticipate and prevent the transport and introduction of invasive alien species. Still, robust and defensible forecasts of potential invaders are rare, especially for species without known invasion history. Here, we aim to support decision-making by developing a quantitative invasion risk assessment tool based on invasion syndromes (i.e., generalising typical attributes of invasive alien species). We implemented a workflow based on 'Multiple Imputation with Chain Equation' to estimate invasion syndromes from imputed datasets of species' life-history and ecological traits and macroecological patterns. Importantly, our models disentangle the factors explaining (i) transport and introduction and (ii) establishment. We showcase our tool by modelling the invasion syndromes of 466 amphibians and reptile species with invasion history. Then, we project these models to amphibians and reptiles worldwide (16,236 species [c.76% global coverage]) to identify species with a risk of being unintentionally transported and introduced, and risk of establishing alien populations. Our invasion syndrome models showed high predictive accuracy with a good balance between specificity and generality. Unintentionally transported and introduced species tend to be common and thrive well in human-disturbed habitats. In contrast, those with established alien populations tend to be large-sized, are habitat generalists, thrive well in human-disturbed habitats, and have large native geographic ranges. We forecast that 160 amphibians and reptiles without known invasion history could be unintentionally transported and introduced in the future. Among them, 57 species have a high risk of establishing alien populations. Our reliable, reproducible, transferable, statistically robust and scientifically defensible quantitative invasion risk assessment tool is a significant new addition to the suite of decision-support tools needed for developing a future-proof preventative biosecurity globally.

Macroecological correlates of Darwinian shortfalls across terrestrial vertebrates

Most described species have not been explicitly included in phylogenetic trees-a problem named the Darwinian shortfall-owing to a lack of molecular and/or morphological data, thus hampering the explicit incorporation of evolution into large-scale biodiversity analyses. We investigate potential drivers of the Darwinian shortfall in tetrapods, a group in which at least one-third of described species still lack phylogenetic data, thus necessitating the imputation of their evolutionary relationships in fully sampled phylogenies. We show that the number of preserved specimens in scientific collections is the main driver of phylogenetic knowledge accumulation, highlighting the major role of biological collections in unveiling novel biodiversity data and the importance of continued sampling efforts to reduce knowledge gaps. Additionally, large-bodied and wide-ranged species, as well as terrestrial and aquatic amphibians and reptiles, are phylogenetically better known. Future efforts should prioritize phylogenetic research on organisms that are narrow-ranged, small-bodied and underrepresented in scientific collections, such as fossorial species. Addressing the Darwinian shortfall will be imperative for advancing our understanding of evolutionary drivers shaping biodiversity patterns and implementing comprehensive conservation strategies.

An evolutionary case for plant rarity: Eucalyptus as a model system

Species rarity is a common phenomenon across global ecosystems that is becoming increasingly more common under climate change. Although species rarity is often considered to be a stochastic response to environmental and ecological constraints, we examined the hypothesis that plant rarity is a consequence of natural selection acting on performance traits that affect a species range size, habitat specificity, and population aggregation; three primary descriptors of rarity. Using a common garden of 25 species of Tasmanian Eucalyptus, we find that the rarest species have 70% lower biomass than common species. Although rare species demonstrate lower biomass, rare species allocated proportionally more biomass aboveground than common species. There is also a negative phylogenetic autocorrelation underlying the biomass of rare and common species, indicating that traits associated with rarity have diverged within subgenera as a result of environmental factors to reach different associated optima. In support of our hypothesis, we found significant positive relationships between species biomass, range size and habitat specificity, but not population aggregation. These results demonstrate repeated convergent evolution of the trait-based determinants of rarity across the phylogeny in Tasmanian eucalypts. Furthermore, the phylogenetically driven patterns in biomass and biomass allocation seen in rare species may be representative of a larger plant strategy, not yet considered, but offering a mechanism as to how rare species continue to persist despite inherent constraints of small, specialized ranges and populations. These results suggest that if rarity can evolve and is related to plant traits such as biomass, rather than a random outcome of environmental constraints, we may need to revise conservation efforts in these and other rare species to reconsider the abiotic and biotic factors that underlie the distributions of rare plant species.

Evolution of rarity and phylogeny determine above- and belowground biomass in plant-plant interactions

Rare species are often considered inferior competitors due to occupancy of small ranges, specific habitats, and small local populations. However, the phylogenetic relatedness and rarity level (level 1-7 and common) of interacting species in plant-plant interactions are not often considered when predicting the response of rare plants in a biotic context. We used a common garden of 25 species of Tasmanian Eucalyptus, to differentiate non-additive patterns in the biomass of rare versus common species when grown in mixtures varying in phylogenetic relatedness and rarity. We demonstrate that rare species maintain progressively positive non-additive responses in biomass when interacting with phylogenetically intermediate, less rare and common species. This trend is not reflected in common species that out-performed in monocultures compared to mixtures. These results offer predictability as to how rare species' productivity will respond within various plant-plant interactions. However, species-specific interactions, such as those involving E. globulus, yielded a 97% increase in biomass compared to other species-specific interaction outcomes. These results are important because they suggest that plant rarity may also be shaped by biotic interactions, in addition to the known environmental and population factors normally used to describe rarity. Rare species may utilize potentially facilitative interactions with phylogenetically intermediate and common species to escape the effects of limiting similarity. Biotically mediated increases in rare plant biomass may have subsequent effects on the competitive ability and geographic occurrence of rare species, allowing rare species to persist at low abundance across plant communities. Through the consideration of species rarity and evolutionary history, we can more accurately predict plant-plant interaction dynamics to preserve unique ecosystem functions and fundamentally challenge what it means to be "rare".

The global distribution of angiosperm genome size is shaped by climate

Angiosperms, which inhabit diverse environments across all continents, exhibit significant variation in genome sizes, making them an excellent model system for examining hypotheses about the global distribution of genome size. These include the previously proposed large genome constraint, mutational hazard, polyploidy-mediated, and climate-mediated hypotheses. We compiled the largest genome size dataset to date, encompassing 16 017 (> 5% of known) angiosperm species, and analyzed genome size distribution using a comprehensive geographic distribution dataset for all angiosperms. We observed that angiosperms with large range sizes generally had small genomes, supporting the large genome constraint hypothesis. Climate was shown to exert a strong influence on genome size distribution along the global latitudinal gradient, while the frequency of polyploidy and the type of growth form had negligible effects. In contrast to the unimodal patterns along the global latitudinal gradient shown by plant size traits and polyploid proportions, the increase in angiosperm genome size from the equator to 40-50°N/S is probably mediated by different (mostly climatic) mechanisms than the decrease in genome sizes observed from 40 to 50°N northward. Our analysis suggests that the global distribution of genome sizes in angiosperms is mainly shaped by climatically mediated purifying selection, genetic drift, relaxed selection, and environmental filtering.

Global patterns and ecological drivers of taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism in angiosperm genera

Endemism of lineages lies at the core of understanding variation in community composition among geographic regions because it reflects how speciation, extinction, and dispersal have influenced current distributions. Here, we investigated geographic patterns and ecological drivers of taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism of angiosperm genera across the world. We identify centers of paleo-endemism and neo-endemism of angiosperm genera, and show that they are mostly located in the Southern Hemisphere in tropical and subtropical regions, particularly in Asia and Australia. Different categories of phylogenetic endemism centers can be differentiated using current climate conditions. Current climate, historical climate change, and geographic variables together explained ∼80% of global variation in taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism, while 42-46%, 1%, and 15% were independently explained by these three types of variables, respectively. Thus our findings show that past climate change, current climate, and geography act together in shaping endemism, which are consistent with the findings of previous studies that higher temperature and topographic heterogeneity promote endemism. Our study showed that many centers of phylogenetic endemism of angiosperms, including regions in Amazonia, Venezuela, and west-central tropical Africa that have not previously been identified as biodiversity hotspots, are missed by taxon-based measures of endemism, indicating the importance of including evolutionary history in biodiversity assessment.

Escarpment evolution drives the diversification of the Madagascar flora

Madagascar exhibits high endemic biodiversity that has evolved with sustained and stable rates of speciation over the past several tens of millions of years. The topography of Madagascar is dominated by a mountainous continental rift escarpment, with the highest plant diversity and rarity found along the steep, eastern side of this geographic feature. Using a process-explicit model, we show that precipitation-driven erosion and landward retreat of this high-relief topography creates transient habitat organization through multiple mechanisms, including catchment expansion, isolation of highland remnants, and formation of topographic barriers. Habitat isolation and reconnection on a million-year timescale serves as an allopatric speciation pump creating the observed biodiversity.

Biotic homogenization, lower soil fungal diversity and fewer rare taxa in arable soils across Europe

Soil fungi are a key constituent of global biodiversity and play a pivotal role in agroecosystems. How arable farming affects soil fungal biogeography and whether it has a disproportional impact on rare taxa is poorly understood. Here, we used the high-resolution PacBio Sequel targeting the entire ITS region to investigate the distribution of soil fungi in 217 sites across a 3000 km gradient in Europe. We found a consistently lower diversity of fungi in arable lands than grasslands, with geographic locations significantly impacting fungal community structures. Prevalent fungal groups became even more abundant, whereas rare groups became fewer or absent in arable lands, suggesting a biotic homogenization due to arable farming. The rare fungal groups were narrowly distributed and more common in grasslands. Our findings suggest that rare soil fungi are disproportionally affected by arable farming, and sustainable farming practices should protect rare taxa and the ecosystem services they support.

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.

Assessing the sensitivity and resistance of communities in a changing environment

We propose that the ecological resilience of communities to permanent changes of the environment can be based on how variation in the overall abundance of individuals affects the number of species. Community sensitivity is defined as the ratio between the rate of change in the log expected number of species and the rate of change in the log expected number of individuals in the community. High community sensitivity means that small changes in the total abundance strongly impact the number of species. Community resistance is the proportional reduction in expected number of individuals that the community can sustain before expecting to lose one species. A small value of community resistance means that the community can only endure a small reduction in abundance before it is expected to lose one species. Based on long-term studies of four bird communities in European deciduous forests at different latitudes large differences were found in the resilience to environmental perturbations. Estimating the variance components of the species abundance distribution revealed how different processes contributed to the community sensitivity and resistance. Species heterogeneity in the population dynamics was the largest component, but its proportion varied among communities. Species-specific response to environmental fluctuations was the second major component of the variation in abundance. Estimates of community sensitivity and resistance based on data only from a single year were in general larger than those based on estimates from longer time series. Thus, our approach can provide rapid and conservative assessment of the resilience of communities to environmental changes also including only short-term data. This study shows that a general ecological mechanism, caused by increased strength of density dependence due to reduction in resource availability, can provide an intuitive measure of community resilience to environmental variation. Our analyses also illustrate the importance of including specific assumptions about how different processes affect community dynamics. For example, if stochastic fluctuations in the environment affect all species in a similar way, the sensitivity and resistance of the community to environmental changes will be different from communities in which all species show independent responses.

Land use intensity controls the diversity-productivity relationship in northern temperate grasslands of China

Introduction

The diversity-productivity relationship is a central issue in maintaining the grassland ecosystem's multifunctionality and supporting its sustainable management. Currently, the mainstream opinion on the diversity-productivity relationship recognizes that increases in species diversity promote ecosystem productivity.

Methods

Here, we challenge this opinion by developing a generalized additive model-based framework to quantify the response rate of grassland productivity to plant species diversity using vegetation survey data we collected along a land-use intensity gradient in northern China.

Results

Our results show that the grassland aboveground biomass responds significantly positively to the Shannon-Wiener diversity index at a rate of 46.8 g m-2 per unit increase of the Shannon-Wiener index in enclosure-managed grasslands, under the co-influence of climate and landscape factors. The aboveground biomass response rate stays positive at a magnitude of 47.1 g m-2 in forest understory grassland and 39.7 g m-2 in wetland grassland. Conversely, the response rate turns negative in heavily grazed grasslands at -55.8 g m-2, transiting via near-neutral rates of -7.0 and -7.3 g m-2 in mowing grassland and moderately grazed grassland, respectively.

Discussion

These results suggest that the diversity-productivity relationship in temperate grasslands not only varies by magnitude but also switches directions under varying levels of land use intensity. This highlights the need to consider land use intensity as a more important ecological integrity indicator for future ecological conservation programs in temperate grasslands.

A global assessment of the Raunkiaeran shortfall in plants: geographic biases in our knowledge of plant traits

This article is part of the Special Collection ‘Global plant diversity and distribution’. See https://www.newphytologist.org/global-plant-diversity for more details.

Environmental modulation of plant mycorrhizal traits in the global flora

Mycorrhizal symbioses are known to strongly influence plant performance, structure plant communities and shape ecosystem dynamics. Plant mycorrhizal traits, such as those characterising mycorrhizal type (arbuscular (AM), ecto-, ericoid or orchid mycorrhiza) and status (obligately (OM), facultatively (FM) or non-mycorrhizal) offer valuable insight into plant belowground functionality. Here, we compile available plant mycorrhizal trait information and global occurrence data (∼ 100 million records) for 11,770 vascular plant species. Using a plant phylogenetic mega-tree and high-resolution climatic and edaphic data layers, we assess phylogenetic and environmental correlates of plant mycorrhizal traits. We find that plant mycorrhizal type is more phylogenetically conserved than plant mycorrhizal status, while environmental variables (both climatic and edaphic; notably soil texture) explain more variation in mycorrhizal status, especially FM. The previously underestimated role of environmental conditions has far-reaching implications for our understanding of ecosystem functioning under changing climatic and soil conditions.

The contribution of plant life and growth forms to global gradients of vascular plant diversity

Plant life and growth forms (shortened to 'plant forms') represent key functional strategies of plants in relation to their environment and provide important insights into the ecological constraints acting on the distribution of biodiversity. Despite their functional importance, how the spectra of plant forms contribute to global gradients of plant diversity is unresolved. Using a novel dataset comprising > 295 000 species, we quantify the contribution of different plant forms to global gradients of vascular plant diversity. Furthermore, we establish how plant form distributions in different biogeographical regions are associated with contemporary and paleoclimate conditions, environmental heterogeneity and phylogeny. We find a major shift in representation of woody perennials in tropical latitudes to herb-dominated floras in temperate and boreal regions, following a sharp latitudinal gradient in plant form diversity from the tropics to the poles. We also find significant functional differences between regions, mirroring life and growth form responses to environmental conditions, which is mostly explained by contemporary climate (18-87%), and phylogeny (6-62%), with paleoclimate and heterogeneity playing a lesser role (< 23%). This research highlights variation in the importance of different plant forms to diversity gradients world-wide, shedding light on the ecological and evolutionary pressures constraining plant-trait distributions.

Climate change and land use threaten global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees

Across the globe, tree species are under high anthropogenic pressure. Risks of extinction are notably more severe for species with restricted ranges and distinct evolutionary histories. Here, we use a global dataset covering 41,835 species (65.1% of known tree species) to assess the spatial pattern of tree species' phylogenetic endemism, its macroecological drivers, and how future pressures may affect the conservation status of the identified hotspots. We found that low-to-mid latitudes host most endemism hotspots, with current climate being the strongest driver, and climatic stability across thousands to millions of years back in time as a major co-determinant. These hotspots are mostly located outside of protected areas and face relatively high land-use change and future climate change pressure. Our study highlights the risk from climate change for tree diversity and the necessity to strengthen conservation and restoration actions in global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees to avoid major future losses of tree diversity.

Unveiling global species abundance distributions

Whether most species are rare or have some intermediate abundance is a long-standing question in ecology. Here, we use more than one billion observations from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to assess global species abundance distributions (gSADs) of 39 taxonomic classes of eukaryotic organisms from 1900 to 2019. We show that, as sampling effort increases through time, the shape of the gSAD is unveiled; that is, the shape of the sampled gSAD changes, revealing the underlying gSAD. The fraction of species unveiled for each class decreases with the total number of species in that class and increases with the number of individuals sampled, with some groups, such as birds, being fully unveiled. The best statistical fit for almost all classes was the Poisson log-normal distribution. This strong evidence for a universal pattern of gSADs across classes suggests that there may be general ecological or evolutionary mechanisms governing the commonness and rarity of life on Earth.

Evolutionary imbalance, climate and human history jointly shape the global biogeography of alien plants

Human activities are causing global biotic redistribution, translocating species and providing them with opportunities to establish populations beyond their native ranges. Species originating from certain global regions, however, are disproportionately represented among naturalized aliens. The evolutionary imbalance hypothesis posits that differences in absolute fitness among biogeographic divisions determine outcomes when biotas mix. Here, we compile data from native and alien distributions for nearly the entire global seed plant flora and find that biogeographic conditions predicted to drive evolutionary imbalance act alongside climate and anthropogenic factors to shape flows of successful aliens among regional biotas. Successful aliens tend to originate from large, biodiverse regions that support abundant populations and where species evolve against a diverse backdrop of competitors and enemies. We also reveal that these same native distribution characteristics are shared among the plants that humans select for cultivation and economic use. In addition to influencing species' innate potentials as invaders, we therefore suggest that evolutionary imbalance shapes plants' relationships with humans, impacting which species are translocated beyond their native distributions.

San Diego Thornmint (Acanthomintha ilicifolia) Populations Differ in Growth and Reproductive Responses to Differential Water Availability: Evidence from a Common Garden Experiment

The responses of rare plants to environmental stressors will determine their potential to adapt to a rapidly changing climate. We used a common garden approach to evaluate how six populations of the annual San Diego thornmint (Acanthomintha ilicifolia Lamiaceae; listed as endangered in the state of California and as threatened by the US Fish and Wildlife Service) from across the species range respond in terms of growth (biomass, height, and width) and reproduction (seed production, floral production, and next generation seed viability) to experimental differences in water availability. We found a significant irrigation-by-population interaction on the aboveground growth, wherein the differences in the magnitude and direction of treatment did not correlate directly with climate variables in natural populations. With respect to reproduction, the low-irrigation treatment produced more seeds per plant, more reproductive individuals, and a larger proportion of viable seed in most, but not all, populations. The seed production and the effect of irrigation on seed production correlated positively with rainfall at wild source populations. These results suggest that Acanthomintha ilicifolia responds to water limitation by creating more and higher-quality seed, and that plants locally adapted to a higher annual rainfall show a greater plasticity to differences in water availability than plants adapted to a lower annual rainfall, a finding that can inform the in situ demographic management and ex situ collection strategy for Acanthomintha ilicifolia and other rare California annuals.

Botanical Collection Patterns and Conservation Categories of the Most Traded Timber Species from the Ecuadorian Amazon: The Role of Protected Areas

The Ecuadorian Amazon is home to a rich biodiversity of woody plant species. Nonetheless, their conservation remains difficult, as some areas remain poorly explored and lack georeferenced records. Therefore, the current study aims predominantly to analyze the collection patterns of timber species in the Amazon lowlands of Ecuador and to evaluate the conservation coverage of these species in protected areas. Furthermore, we try to determine the conservation category of the species according to the criteria of the IUCN Red List. We identified that one third of the timber species in the study area was concentrated in three provinces due to historical botanical expeditions. However, a worrying 22.0% of the species had less than five records of presence, and 29.9% had less than ten records, indicating a possible underestimation of their presence. In addition, almost half of the species evaluated were unprotected, exposing them to deforestation risks and threats. To improve knowledge and conservation of forest biodiversity in the Ecuadorian Amazon, it is recommended to perform new botanical samplings in little-explored areas and digitize data in national herbaria. It is critical to implement automated assessments of the conservation status of species with insufficient data. In addition, it is suggested to use species distribution models to identify optimal areas for forest restoration initiatives. Effective communication of results and collaboration between scientists, governments, and local communities are key to the protection and sustainable management of forest biodiversity in the Amazon region.

Ultra-sensitive detection of ecologically rare fish from eDNA samples based on the RPA-CRISPR/Cas12a technology

Environmental DNA (eDNA) research holds great promise for improving biodiversity science and conservation efforts by enabling worldwide species censuses in near real-time. Current eDNA methods face challenges in detecting low-abundance ecologically important species. In this study, we used isothermal recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA)-CRISPR/Cas detection to test Ctenopharyngodon idella. RPA-CRISPR-Cas12a detected 6.0 eDNA copies/μL within 35 min. Ecologically rare species were identified in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) using functional distinctiveness and geographical restrictiveness, with seven fish species (9%) classified as potentially ecologically rare including three species in this investigation. RPA-CRISPR/Cas12a-FQ outperformed high-throughput sequencing (HTS) and qPCR in detecting low-abundance eDNA (AUC = 0.883∗∗). A significant linear correlation (R2 = 0.682∗∗) between RPA-CRISPR/Cas12a-FQ and HTS quantification suggests its potential for predicting species abundance and enhancing eDNA-based fish biodiversity monitoring. This study highlights the value of RPA-CRISPR/Cas12a-FQ as a tool for advancing eDNA research and conservation efforts.

Achieving zero extinction for land plants

Despite the importance of plants for humans and the threats to their future, plant conservation receives far less support compared with vertebrate conservation. Plants are much cheaper and easier to conserve than are animals, but, although there are no technical reasons why any plant species should become extinct, inadequate funding and the shortage of skilled people has created barriers to their conservation. These barriers include the incomplete inventory, the low proportion of species with conservation status assessments, partial online data accessibility, varied data quality, and insufficient investment in both in and ex situ conservation. Machine learning, citizen science (CS), and new technologies could mitigate these problems, but we need to set national and global targets of zero plant extinction to attract greater support.

Climatic stability and geological history shape global centers of neo- and paleoendemism in seed plants

Assessing the distribution of geographically restricted and evolutionarily unique species and their underlying drivers is key to understanding biogeographical processes and critical for global conservation prioritization. Here, we quantified the geographic distribution and drivers of phylogenetic endemism for ~320,000 seed plants worldwide and identified centers and drivers of evolutionarily young (neoendemism) and evolutionarily old endemism (paleoendemism). Tropical and subtropical islands as well as tropical mountain regions displayed the world's highest phylogenetic endemism. Most tropical rainforest regions emerged as centers of paleoendemism, while most Mediterranean-climate regions showed high neoendemism. Centers where high neo- and paleoendemism coincide emerged on some oceanic and continental fragment islands, in Mediterranean-climate regions and parts of the Irano-Turanian floristic region. Global variation in phylogenetic endemism was well explained by a combination of past and present environmental factors (79.8 to 87.7% of variance explained) and most strongly related to environmental heterogeneity. Also, warm and wet climates, geographic isolation, and long-term climatic stability emerged as key drivers of phylogenetic endemism. Neo- and paleoendemism were jointly explained by climatic and geological history. Long-term climatic stability promoted the persistence of paleoendemics, while the isolation of oceanic islands and their unique geological histories promoted neoendemism. Mountainous regions promoted both neo- and paleoendemism, reflecting both diversification and persistence over time. Our study provides insights into the evolutionary underpinnings of biogeographical patterns in seed plants and identifies the areas on Earth with the highest evolutionary and biogeographical uniqueness-key information for setting global conservation priorities.

Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900-1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.

Cooling-induced expansions of Afromontane forests in the Horn of Africa since the Last Glacial Maximum

Understanding the changing plant ecosystems that existed in East Africa over the past millennia is crucial for identifying links between habitats and past human adaptation and dispersal across the region. In the Horn of Africa, this task is hampered by the scarcity of fossil botanical data. Here we present modelled past vegetation distributions in Ethiopia from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present at high spatial and temporal resolution. The simulations show that, contrary to long-standing hypotheses, the area covered by Afromontane forests during the Late Glacial was significantly larger than at present. The combined effect of low temperatures and the relative rainfall contribution sourced from the Congo Basin and Indian Ocean, emerges as the mechanism that controlled the migration of Afromontane forests to lower elevations. This process may have enabled the development of continuous forest corridors connecting populations that are currently isolated in mountainous areas over the African continent. Starting with the Holocene, the expansion of forests began to reverse. This decline intensified over the second half of the Holocene leading to a retreat of the forests to higher elevations where they are restricted today. The simulations are consistent with proxy data derived from regional pollen records and provide a key environmental and conceptual framework for human environmental adaptation research.

Disentangling the relationships among abundance, invasiveness and invasibility in trait space

Identifying conditions and traits that allow an introduced species to grow and spread, from being initially rare to becoming abundant (defined as invasiveness), is the crux of invasion ecology. Invasiveness and abundance are related but not the same, and we need to differentiate these concepts. Predicting both species abundance and invasiveness and their relationship in an invaded community is highly contextual, being contingent on the community trait profile and its invasibility. We operationalised a three-pronged invasion framework that considers traits, environmental context, and propagule pressure. Specifically, we measure the invasiveness of an alien species by combining three components (performance reflecting environmental suitability, product of species richness and the covariance between interaction strength and species abundance, and community-level interaction pressure); the expected population growth rate of alien species simply reflects the total effect of propagule pressure and the product of their population size and invasiveness. The invasibility of a community reflects the size of opportunity niches (the integral of positive invasiveness in the trait space) under the given abiotic conditions of the environment. Both species abundance and the surface of invasiveness over the trait space can be dynamic and variable. Whether an introduced species with functional traits similar to those of an abundant species in the community exhibits high or low invasiveness depends largely on the kernel functions of performance and interaction strength with respect to traits and environmental conditions. Knowledge of the covariance between interaction strength and species abundance and these kernel functions, thus, holds the key to accurate prediction of invasion dynamics.

MOSAIC - A Unified Trait Database to Complement Structured Population Models

Despite exponential growth in ecological data availability, broader interoperability amongst datasets is needed to unlock the potential of open access. Our understanding of the interface of demography and functional traits is well-positioned to benefit from such interoperability. Here, we introduce MOSAIC, an open-access trait database that unlocks the demographic potential stored in the COMADRE, COMPADRE, and PADRINO open-access databases. MOSAIC data were digitised and curated through a combination of existing datasets and new trait records sourced from primary literature. In its first release, MOSAIC (v. 1.0.0) includes 14 trait fields for 300 animal and plant species: biomass, height, growth determination, regeneration, sexual dimorphism, mating system, hermaphrodism, sequential hermaphrodism, dispersal capacity, type of dispersal, mode of dispersal, dispersal classes, volancy, and aquatic habitat dependency. MOSAIC includes species-level phylogenies for 1,359 species and population-specific climate data. We identify how database integration can improve our understanding of traits well-quantified in existing repositories and those that are poorly quantified (e.g., growth determination, modularity). MOSAIC highlights emerging challenges associated with standardising databases and demographic measures.

Clarifying the effect of biodiversity on productivity in natural ecosystems with longitudinal data and methods for causal inference

Causal effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functions can be estimated using experimental or observational designs - designs that pose a tradeoff between drawing credible causal inferences from correlations and drawing generalizable inferences. Here, we develop a design that reduces this tradeoff and revisits the question of how plant species diversity affects productivity. Our design leverages longitudinal data from 43 grasslands in 11 countries and approaches borrowed from fields outside of ecology to draw causal inferences from observational data. Contrary to many prior studies, we estimate that increases in plot-level species richness caused productivity to decline: a 10% increase in richness decreased productivity by 2.4%, 95% CI [-4.1, -0.74]. This contradiction stems from two sources. First, prior observational studies incompletely control for confounding factors. Second, most experiments plant fewer rare and non-native species than exist in nature. Although increases in native, dominant species increased productivity, increases in rare and non-native species decreased productivity, making the average effect negative in our study. By reducing the tradeoff between experimental and observational designs, our study demonstrates how observational studies can complement prior ecological experiments and inform future ones.

Global beta-diversity of angiosperm trees is shaped by Quaternary climate change

As Earth's climate has varied strongly through geological time, studying the impacts of past climate change on biodiversity helps to understand the risks from future climate change. However, it remains unclear how paleoclimate shapes spatial variation in biodiversity. Here, we assessed the influence of Quaternary climate change on spatial dissimilarity in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional composition among neighboring 200-kilometer cells (beta-diversity) for angiosperm trees worldwide. We found that larger glacial-interglacial temperature change was strongly associated with lower spatial turnover (species replacements) and higher nestedness (richness changes) components of beta-diversity across all three biodiversity facets. Moreover, phylogenetic and functional turnover was lower and nestedness higher than random expectations based on taxonomic beta-diversity in regions that experienced large temperature change, reflecting phylogenetically and functionally selective processes in species replacement, extinction, and colonization during glacial-interglacial oscillations. Our results suggest that future human-driven climate change could cause local homogenization and reduction in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity of angiosperm trees worldwide.

Net effects of life-history traits explain persistent differences in abundance among similar species

Life-history traits are promising tools to predict species commonness and rarity because they influence a population's fitness in a given environment. Yet, species with similar traits can have vastly different abundances, challenging the prospect of robust trait-based predictions. Using long-term demographic monitoring, we show that coral populations with similar morphological and life-history traits show persistent (decade-long) differences in abundance. Morphological groups predicted species positions along two, well known life-history axes (the fast-slow continuum and size-specific fecundity). However, integral projection models revealed that density-independent population growth (λ) was more variable within morphological groups, and was consistently higher in dominant species relative to rare species. Within-group λ differences projected large abundance differences among similar species in short timeframes, and were generated by small but compounding variation in growth, survival, and reproduction. Our study shows that easily measured morphological traits predict demographic strategies, yet small life-history differences can accumulate into large differences in λ and abundance among similar species. Quantifying the net effects of multiple traits on population dynamics is therefore essential to anticipate species commonness and rarity.

Implications for conservation assessment from flux in the botanical record over 20 years in southwest Ghana

At best, conservation decisions can only be made using the data available at the time. For plants and especially in the tropics, natural history collections remain the best available baseline information upon which to base conservation assessments, in spite of well-documented limitations in their taxonomic, geographic, and temporal coverage. We explore the extent to which changes to the plant biological record over 20 years have changed our conception of the conservation importance of 931 plant taxa, and 114 vegetation samples, recorded in forest reserves of the southwest Ghana biodiversity hotspot. 36% of species-level assessments changed as a result of new distribution data. 12% of species accepted in 2016 had no assessment in 1996: of those, 20% are new species publications, 60% are new records for SW Ghana, and 20% are taxonomic resolutions. Apparent species ranges have increased over time as new records are made, but new species publications are overwhelmingly of globally rare species, keeping the balance of perceived rarity in the flora constant over 20 years. Thus, in spite of considerable flux at the species record level, range size rarity scores calculated for 114 vegetation samples of the reserves in 1996 and 2016 are highly correlated with each other: r(112) = 0.84, p < .0005, and showed no difference in mean score over 20 years: paired t(113) = -0.482, p = .631. This consistency in results at the area level allows for worthwhile conservation priority setting over time, and we argue is the better course of action than taking no action at all.

Safety Net Ontario: Ontario’s outsized role in the “Global Safety Net” for climate and biodiversity

Dinerstein et al. present a spatially explicit global framework for protected areas needed to reverse catastrophic biodiversity losses and stabilize climate. The Province of Ontario (Canada) stands out in this “Global Safety Net (GSN)” as a critical jurisdiction for meeting those goals, because of both the large extent of roadless lands and high carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Simultaneously, pressure is increasing to develop unmanaged lands in Ontario, particularly in the Far North, for resource extraction. Here, we extract data from the GSN to identify and calculate the areal extent of target regions present in Ontario and critically review the results in terms of accuracy and implications for conservation. We show that when region-specific data are incorporated, Ontario is even more significant than what is shown in the GSN, especially in terms of carbon stocks in forested and open peatlands. Additionally, the biodiversity metrics used in the GSN only partially capture opportunities for conservation in Ontario, and the officially recognized extent of Indigenous lands vastly underestimates the role of First Nations in conservation. Despite these limitations, our analyses indicate that Ontario plays an outsized role in terms of its potential to impact the trajectories both of biodiversity and climate globally.