Accelerated forest fragmentation leads to critical increase in tropical forest edge area

Impact of forest fragmentation on river water quality: an example from a typical subtropical hilly basin

Background

Forest fragmentation, driven by natural and human activities, is increasing. However, the impact of forest fragmentation on river water quality remains ambiguous.

Methods

In this study, water quality data were collected from 15 monitoring sites in the upper Ganjiang River basin in winter and summer, and the forest landscape fragmentation metrics in the sub-basin was calculated to assess its seasonal impact on river water quality.

Results

The results indicated that water quality in the area is generally satisfactory, with total nitrogen (TN) as the main pollutant. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that the explanation rate of the six forest landscape fragmentation metrics to the water quality change in summer was 41.21%, and in winter, their explanation rate of water quality change increased by 14.26%. Among them, the effective mesh size (MESH) was negatively correlated with most river water quality indicators, with a contribution rate of 20.9%. While the interspersion and juxtaposition index (IJI) was positively correlated with most water quality indicators in winter, with a contribution rate of 44.9%. It is worth noting that the thresholds for IJI and MESH of forest were the same in winter and summer, 28.1% and 7.89e+0.5ha, respectively, when the probability of an abrupt change in TN concentration reached 100%. This is implied that when the adjacency of forest patches is less than 28.1% and the connectivity of forest patches is more than 7.89e+0.5ha, it may contribute to the reduction of TN concentration in rivers. These findings provide valuable insights into how varying degrees of forest fragmentation can lead to deterioration in river water quality, and allow for further planning of forest structure based on forest fragmentation thresholds to improve regional water quality.

Impacts of forest fragmentation on interactions between plants and their insect herbivores and fungal pathogens

Natural enemies of plants, including fungal pathogens and insect herbivores, can maintain plant diversity if their harmful effects on seeds and seedlings are density-dependent (the Janzen-Connell hypothesis). As insect and fungal communities can be modified by anthropogenic habitat fragmentation, we conducted a field experiment to understand how fragmentation might affect the ability of natural enemies to maintain diversity. In 21 rainforest fragments in the Western Ghats, India, we suppressed insects and fungi with biocides and examined consequent changes in the survival of naturally dispersed tree seedlings. Seedling survival decreased with the density of conspecific seedlings in the same plot. This effect was reduced by fungicide applications, especially in large forest fragments. Insecticide increased seedling survival, but its effects were independent of fragment area and conspecific density. The effects of conspecific density and fungicide were predominantly driven by the most abundant species, Syzygium rubicundum. Overall, these results indicate that forest fragmentation can alter biotic processes that regulate plant diversity. However, the overall impact of fragmentation through this pathway may be limited to relatively few species.

Ecosystem resilience response to forest fragmentation in China: Thresholds identification

Ecosystem resilience refers to the ability of ecosystems to maintain stability in structure and function when subjected to disturbances. Global declines in resilience, largely driven by climate variability and water constraints, have attracted significant attention. However, the impact of forest fragmentation, particularly its threshold effects, where a sudden shift in ecosystem structure or function occurs once environmental changes surpass a critical point, remains underexplored. To address this gap, we quantified the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest fragmentation and resilience in China from 1990 to 2022 using long-term land use data and satellite-derived vegetation indices, analyzing the consistency of their temporal trends. Using breakpoint regression, we identified thresholds for the impact of forest fragmentation on resilience and explored their applications in ecological management. The results show that approximately 30 % of forest areas have experienced increased fragmentation. Temporal variations in fragmentation and resilience exhibited an overall negative correlation, modulated by vegetation and underlying moisture conditions. Forest fragmentation created a distinct threshold effect on ecological resilience. Below this threshold, fragmentation does not significantly reduce resilience and may even enhance it. However, once fragmentation exceeds the threshold, resilience decreases significantly. Our findings provide valuable insights into the relationship between landscape spatial patterns and resilience, while the identified thresholds can guide the optimization of landscape management practices.

Small forest patches and landscape-scale fragmentation exacerbate forest fire prevalence in Amazonia

Over recent decades, forest fire prevalence has increased throughout the tropics, necessitating improved understanding of the landscape-scale drivers of fire occurrence. Here, we use MapBiomas land-cover and fire scar data to evaluate relationships between forest fragmentation, land-use, and forest fire prevalence in a typically consolidated Amazonian agricultural frontier: Portal da Amazonia, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Using zero-/zero-one-inflated Beta regressions, we investigate effects of forest patch (area, shape, surrounding forest cover) and landscape-scale variables (forest edge length, land-cover composition) on forest fire occurrence and density between 1985 and 2021. We show that fire density was greatest in small, complex forest patches. Small patches (≤100 ha) were also the dominant contributors to annual, regional forest fire cover. At the landscape-scale (100 km2), forest edge length and urban land cover were positively associated with forest fire occurrence and density. Furthermore, forest fires were most likely to occur in landscapes consisting of ∼45% pasture cover, while fire density increased roughly linearly with pasture cover. Cropland cover was negatively associated with forest fire occurrence and density. Our findings indicate clear links between forest fragmentation and increased forest fire prevalence. This is cause for global concern, given that fragmentation rates throughout Amazonia are increasing, and fires are eroding the Amazon's capacity to act as a carbon sink. Efforts to minimise further fragmentation within Amazonia would likely help reduce forest fire prevalence. Within already fragmented regions, the conversion of pasture into crops, alongside targeted efforts to suppress fires within small forest patches and urbanized areas, may also limit fire prevalence.

Winner-loser plant trait replacements in human-modified tropical forests

Anthropogenic landscape modification may lead to the proliferation of a few species and the loss of many. Here we investigate mechanisms and functional consequences of this winner-loser replacement in six human-modified Amazonian and Atlantic Forest regions in Brazil using a causal inference framework. Combining floristic and functional trait data for 1,207 tree species across 271 forest plots, we find that forest loss consistently caused an increased dominance of low-density woods and small seeds dispersed by endozoochory (winner traits) and the loss of distinctive traits, such as extremely dense woods and large seeds dispersed by synzoochory (loser traits). Effects on leaf traits and maximum tree height were rare or inconsistent. The independent causal effects of landscape configuration were rare, but local degradation remained important in multivariate trait-disturbance relationships and exceeded the effects of forest loss in one Amazonian region. Our findings highlight that tropical forest loss and local degradation drive predictable functional changes to remaining tree assemblages and that certain traits are consistently associated with winners and losers across different regional contexts.

Identification of forest priority conservation and restoration areas for different SSPs-RCPs scenarios

The conservation and restoration of forests are a crucial component of climate mitigation strategies in many countries. However, the scientific selection of priority areas for forest conservation and restoration remains a challenge. Based on the landscape indices, the forest landscape structural connectivity index was constructed based on principal component analysis; the forest landscape functional connectivity index was constructed based on the minimum cumulative resistance model. Geodetector was employed to identify the driving forces of forest landscape structural and functional connectivity in the Fujian Delta region. The patch-generating land use simulation model was then used to simulate land use changes under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios from 2030 to 2050. The optimal scenario of forest development was then selected based on the forest landscape structural and functional connectivity. Finally, graph theory was used to identify priority forest conservation and restoration areas under optimal scenarios. The results indicate the following: (1) elevation (q = 0.34, P < 0.01) and nighttime light (q = 0.33, P < 0.01) are the primary drivers of structural connectivity in forested landscapes, while nighttime light (q = 0.38, P < 0.01) and gross domestic product (q = 0.28, P < 0.01) are the primary drivers of functional connectivity in forested landscapes. The joint effect of elevation and nighttime lighting (q = 0.44, P < 0.01) enhances the explanatory power of structural connectivity in forested landscapes. The joint effect of nighttime lighting and gross domestic product (q = 0.46, P < 0.01) enhances the explanatory power of functional connectivity in forested landscapes. (2) Overall, between 2020 and 2050, forest landscape structural and functional connectivity tends to increase in the SSP1-2.6 scenario and decrease in the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Based on the structural and functional connectivity of the forest landscape, the optimal scenario for future development was identified as SSP1-RCP2.6. (3) The areas of forests prioritized for conservation in 2030, 2040, and 2050 are 12,470.18 km2, 12,470.18 km2, and 12,227.67 km2, respectively. The areas of forests prioritized for restoration are 51.80 km2, 103.14 km2, and 390.86 km2, respectively. This study identified priority forest conservation and restoration areas under SSPs-RCPs scenarios using graph theory, offering valuable insights into biodiversity conservation and the identification of locations for forest conservation and restoration planning.

Where the small things are: Modelling edge effects on mouse lemur population density and distribution in northwestern Madagascar

Edge effects result from the penetration to varying depths and intensities, of abiotic and biotic conditions from the surrounding non-forest matrix into the forest interior. Although 70% of the world's forests are within 1 km of a forest edge, making edge effects a dominant feature of most forest habitats, there are few empirical data on inter-site differences in edge responses in primates. We used spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models to determine spatial patterns of density for two species of mouse lemurs (Microcebus murinus and Microcebus ravelobensis) in two forest landscapes in northwestern Madagascar. The goal of our study was to determine if mouse lemurs displayed spatially variable responses to edge effects. We trapped animals using Sherman live traps in the Mariarano Classified Forest (MCF) and in the Ambanjabe Forest Fragment Site (AFFS) site within Ankarafantsika National Park. We trapped 126 M. murinus and 79 M. ravelobensis at MCF and 78 M. murinus and 308 M. ravelobensis at AFFS. For M. murinus, our top model predicted a positive edge response, where density increased towards edge habitats. In M. ravelobensis, our top model predicted a negative edge response, where density was lower near the forest edges and increased towards the forest interior. At regional and landscape-specific scales, SECR models estimated different density patterns between M. murinus and M. ravelobensis as a result of variation in edge distance. The spatial variability of our results using SECR models indicate the importance of studying the population ecology of primates at varying scales that are appropriate to the processes of interest. Our results lend further support to the theory that some lemurs exhibit a form of ecological flexibility in their responses to forest loss, forest fragmentation, and associated edge effects.

Fragmentation in patchy ecosystems: a call for a functional approach

Habitat fragmentation is a major threat to biodiversity, but existing literature largely ignores naturally patchy ecosystems in favor of forests, where deforestation creates spatially distinct fragments. Here, we use savannas to highlight the problems with applying forest fragmentation principles to spatially patchy ecosystems. Identifying fragmentation using landscape functionality, specifically connectivity, enables better understanding of ecosystem dynamics. Tools and concepts from connectivity research are well suited to identifying barriers other than vegetation structure contributing to fragmentation. Opportunities exist to improve fragmentation mapping by combining remote-sensing data with field measurements related to connectivity to empirically test whether landscapes are functionally fragmented. Advancements in deep learning and increasingly accessible data open many possibilities for comprehensive maps of fragmentation.

Towards responsible resource utilization: A review of sustainable vs. unsustainable reuse of wood waste

Abundant wood waste is generated globally, but the literature lacks a framework distinguishing sustainable versus unsustainable reuse practices. This gap hinders policy makers and stakeholders from effectively supporting responsible resource utilization. As such, this scoping review aimed to address this gap by evaluating wood waste reuse practices through ecological, financial, and social sustainability lenses. A comprehensive database search yielded 1,150 records, narrowed to 106 included studies through eligibility screening. Data on study details and sustainability factors was extracted without a formal quality appraisal. The protocol ensures a rigorous evidence-mapping approach. The findings revealed that sustainable uses included renewable energy, adsorbents, construction materials, and composting applications. However, toxic preservatives, uncontrolled emissions from burning, intensive harvesting impacts, and contamination risks from uncontrolled mulching perpetuate ecological, social, and financial challenges. Preventing contamination and managing sustainability trade-offs are key priorities. Research innovations, stringent quality control, and supportive policies are imperative to distinguish practices aligned with sustainability principles from those inadvertently causing harm. This review provides a comprehensive framework for making informed decisions to progress wood waste systems toward responsible resource utilization.

Ecology and life history predict avian nest success in the global tropics

Nest predation rates critically influence avian biodiversity and evolution. In the north temperate zone, increased nest failure along edges of forest fragments is hypothesized to play a major role in the disappearance of bird species from disturbed landscapes. However, we lack comprehensive syntheses from tropical latitudes, where biodiversity is highest and increasingly threatened by habitat fragmentation and disturbance. We assembled data from five decades of field studies across the global tropics (1,112 populations of 661 species) and used phylogenetic models to evaluate proposed predictors of nest success. We found significant effects of several traits, including adult body mass and nest architecture. Contrary to results from many temperate locations, anthropogenic habitat disruption did not consistently reduce nest success; in fact, raw nest success rates were lower in large tracts of primary forest than in disturbed or fragmented landscapes. Follow-up analyses within species, using a subset of 76 species for which we had estimates of nest survival in habitats with different levels of disruption, confirmed that neither disturbance nor fragmentation significantly influenced nest success. These results suggest that nest predation alone cannot explain observed declines in avian biodiversity in tropical forest fragments, raising new questions about the demographic processes that drive extinction in the tropics.

Harnessing genomic technologies for one health solutions in the tropics

BACKGROUND

The targeted application of cutting-edge high-throughput molecular data technologies provides an enormous opportunity to address key health, economic and environmental issues in the tropics within the One Health framework. The Earth's tropical regions are projected to contain > 50% of the world's population by 2050 coupled with 80% of its biodiversity however these regions are relatively less developed economically, with agricultural productivity substantially lower than temperate zones, a large percentage of its population having limited health care options and much of its biodiversity understudied and undescribed. The generation of high-throughput molecular data and bespoke bioinformatics capability to address these unique challenges offers an enormous opportunity for people living in the tropics. MAIN: In this review we discuss in depth solutions to challenges to populations living in tropical zones across three critical One Health areas: human health, biodiversity and food production. This review will examine how some of the challenges in the tropics can be addressed through the targeted application of advanced omics and bioinformatics and will discuss how local populations can embrace these technologies through strategic outreach and education ensuring the benefits of the One Health approach is fully realised through local engagement.

CONCLUSION

Within the context of the One Health framework, we will demonstrate how genomic technologies can be utilised to improve the overall quality of life for half the world's population.

The environmental impact assessment of China's ecological migration from a social-ecological perspective

When accounting for the social-ecological impact of an ecological restoration program, both objective environmental contexts and people's subjective perceptions are required. While this kind of environmental impact assessment lacks a comprehensive perspective. We use the difference-in-differences model to evaluate the effect of the greenness of the landscape after ecological migration in the Qilian Mountains in China; and analysis of variance and fixed effects models are used to evaluate the effects of such ecological restoration programs on local people's perceptions. The results show that the ecological migration program in the Qilian Mountains has been successful at not only significantly improving remotely sensed greenness at the landscape scale, but also at enhancing immigrants' environmental perceptions. These findings demonstrate the environmental impacts of ecological migration from a social-ecological perspective, and can provide methodological implications for landscape planning to support a better understanding of ecological restoration programs in the drylands.

The Risk of Virus Emergence in South America: A Subtle Balance Between Increasingly Favorable Conditions and a Protective Environment

South American ecosystems host astonishing biodiversity, with potentially great richness in viruses. However, these ecosystems have not yet been the source of any widespread, epidemic viruses. Here we explore a set of putative causes that may explain this apparent paradox. We discuss that human presence in South America is recent, beginning around 14,000 years ago; that few domestications of native species have occurred; and that successive immigration events associated with Old World virus introductions reduced the likelihood of spillovers and adaptation of local viruses into humans. Also, the diversity and ecological characteristics of vertebrate hosts might serve as protective factors. Moreover, although forest areas remained well preserved until recently, current brutal, sudden, and large-scale clear cuts through the forest have resulted in nearly no ecotones, which are essential for creating an adaptive gradient of microbes, hosts, and vectors. This may be temporarily preventing virus emergence. Nevertheless, the mid-term effect of such drastic changes in habitats and landscapes, coupled with explosive urbanization and climate changes, must not be overlooked by health authorities.

Landscape fragmentation and regularity lead to decreased carbon stocks in basins: Evidence from century-scale research

Landscapes evolution have significantly altered the Earth's energy balance and biogeochemical cycles, thereby exacerbating climate change. This, in turn, affects surface characteristics and the provision of ecosystem services, especially carbon storage. While recent centuries have witnessed unprecedented landscape changes, limited long-term studies have offered insights into the comparison between present-day features and historical conditions. This study utilized historical reconstruction data and remote sensing imagery to assess landscape evolution and its consequences for carbon stocks over 300 years. Employing multiple regression and random forest models were selected to quantify the influence of key landscape metrics on carbon stocks in the Dongting Lake basin, allowing for a thorough analysis across different sub-basins and land types. The results revealed that intensified human disturbances led to increased landscape fragmentation (+82%), regularity (+56%), and diversity (+37%) within the basin. Moreover, carbon stocks decreased from 4.13 Gt to 3.66 Gt, representing an 11.4% loss, with soil carbon stock experiencing the most considerable reduction (0.24 Gt, 51%). These changes in carbon stock metrics corresponded to shifts in landscape patterns, both undergoing significant transitions at the turn of the 21st century. Meanwhile, fragmentation and regularity played a vital role in explaining carbon stock changes, as their increase contributes to greater carbon losses. Likewise, an increase in landscape diversity correlated with decreased carbon stocks, challenging the prevailing notion that enhanced diversity promotes carbon stocks. The influence of landscape patterns on carbon stocks varies notably across distinct land types. An increase in the dominance of farmland and built-up land led to decreased carbon stocks, while the opposite holds true for forestland. Similarly, a decrease in regularity for farmland, forestland, and built-up land benefits carbon storage, while grassland demonstrates the opposite trend. These findings offer insights for countries and regions in the early stages of development or approaching development, suggesting improvements in land use practices and strategies to address climate change. This involves offsetting land-based carbon emissions through changes in landscape spatial configuration.

Evaluation of forest loss data using fractal algorithms: case study Eastern Carpathians–Romania

Logging causes the fragmentation of areas with direct implications for hydrological processes, landslides, or habitats. The assessment of this fragmentation process plays an important role in the planning of future logging, reconstruction, and protection measures for the whole ecosystem. The methodology used includes imaging techniques applying two fractal indices: the Fractal Fragmentation Index (FFI) and the Fractal Fragmentation and Disorder Index (FFDI). The results showed the annual evolution and disposition of deforested areas. Only 3% of deforestation resulted in the fragmentation and splitting of forest plots. The remaining 97% resulted in the reduction of existing compact stands without fragmentation. The method has many advantages in quantifying the spatial evolution of forests, estimating the capture of carbon emissions and establishing sustainability of bird and animal habitats. The analysis took place in the Eastern Carpathians, in Romania, in the time period of 2001–2022.

Human degradation of tropical moist forests is greater than previously estimated

Tropical forest degradation from selective logging, fire and edge effects is a major driver of carbon and biodiversity loss1-3, with annual rates comparable to those of deforestation4. However, its actual extent and long-term impacts remain uncertain at global tropical scale5. Here we quantify the magnitude and persistence of multiple types of degradation on forest structure by combining satellite remote sensing data on pantropical moist forest cover changes4 with estimates of canopy height and biomass from spaceborne6 light detection and ranging (LiDAR). We estimate that forest height decreases owing to selective logging and fire by 15% and 50%, respectively, with low rates of recovery even after 20 years. Agriculture and road expansion trigger a 20% to 30% reduction in canopy height and biomass at the forest edge, with persistent effects being measurable up to 1.5 km inside the forest. Edge effects encroach on 18% (approximately 206 Mha) of the remaining tropical moist forests, an area more than 200% larger than previously estimated7. Finally, degraded forests with more than 50% canopy loss are significantly more vulnerable to subsequent deforestation. Collectively, our findings call for greater efforts to prevent degradation and protect already degraded forests to meet the conservation pledges made at recent United Nations Climate Change and Biodiversity conferences.

Can large-scale tree planting in China compensate for the loss of climate connectivity due to deforestation?

Extensive deforestation has been a major reason for the loss of forest connectivity, impeding species range shifts under current climate change. Over the past decades, the Chinese government launched a series of afforestation and reforestation projects to increase forest cover, yet whether the new forests can compensate for the loss of connectivity due to deforestation-and where future tree planting would be most effective-remains largely unknown. Here, we evaluate changes in climate connectivity across China's forests between 2015 and 2019. We find that China's large-scale tree planting alleviated the negative impacts of forest loss on climate connectivity, improving the extent and probability of climate connectivity by 0-0.2 °C and 0-0.03, respectively. The improvements were particularly obvious for species with short dispersal distances (i.e., 3 km and 10 km). Nevertheless, only ~55 % of the trees planted in this period could serve as stepping stones for species movement. This indicates that focusing solely on the quantitative target of forest coverage without considering the connectivity of forests may miss opportunities in tree planting to facilitate climate-induced range shifts. More attention should be paid to the spatial arrangement of tree plantations and their potential as stepping stones. We then identify priority areas for future tree planting to create effective stepping stones. Our study highlights the potential of large-scale tree planting to facilitate range shifts. Future tree-planting efforts should incorporate the need for species range shifts to achieve more biodiversity conservation benefits under climate change.

A global meta-analysis of the impacts of forest fragmentation on biotic mutualisms and antagonisms

Forest fragmentation is a grave threat to biodiversity. Forests are becoming increasingly fragmented with more than 70% now < 1 km from forest edge. Although much is known about the effects of forest fragmentation on individual species, much less is understood about its effects on species interactions (i.e., mutualisms, antagonisms, etc.). In 2014, a previous meta-analysis assessed the impacts of forest fragmentation on different species interactions, across 82 studies. We pooled the previous data with data published in the last 10 years (combined total 104 studies and 168 effect sizes). We compared the new set of publications (22 studies and 32 effect sizes) with the old set to evaluate potential changes in species interactions over time given the global increase in fragmentation rates. Mutualisms were more negatively affected by forest fragmentation than antagonisms (p < 0.0001). Edge effects, fragment size, and degradation negatively affected mutualisms, but not antagonisms, a different finding from the original meta-analysis. Parasitic interactions increased as fragment size decreased (p < 0.0001)-an intriguing result at variance with earlier studies. New publications showed a more negative mean effect size of forest fragmentation on mutualisms than old publications. Although research is still limited for some interactions, we identified an important scientific trend: current research tends to focus on antagonisms. We concluded that forest fragmentation disrupts important species interactions and that this disruption has increased over time.

Impacts of commodity prices and governance on the expansion of tropical agricultural frontiers

Deforestation in the tropics remains a significant global challenge linked to carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. Agriculture, forestry, wildfires, and urbanization have been repeatedly identified as main drivers of tropical deforestation. Understanding the underlying mechanisms behind these direct causes is crucial to navigate the multiple tradeoffs between competing forest uses, such as food and biomass production (SDG 2), climate action (SDG 13), and life on land (SDG 15). This paper develops and implements a global-scale empirical approach to quantify two key factors affecting land use decisions at tropical forest frontiers: agricultural commodity prices and national governance. It relies on data covering the period 2004-2015 from multiple public sources, aggregated to countries and agro-ecological zones. Our analysis confirms the persistent influence of commodity prices on agricultural land expansion, especially in forest-abundant regions. Economic and environmental governance quality co-determines processes of expansion and contraction of agricultural land in the tropics, yet at much smaller magnitudes than other drivers. We derive land supply elasticities for direct use in standard economic impact assessment models and demonstrate that our results make a difference in a Computable General Equilibrium framework.

Characterizing landscape fragmentation of Koitobos river sub-basin, Trans-Nzoia, Kenya

The changes in landscape structure and functioning due to unprecedented human interference are hastening across the globe and it is thus a compelling necessity to preserve and restore our ecosystems. This study aimed to characterize levels of landscape fragmentation, habitat structure, driving forces, and perceptions of the residents on the most preferred reconfiguration approaches. The land use/land cover [LULC] change was first determined by interpreting the 1973, 1986, 1995, 2002, 2014, and 2022 Landsat images using the QGIS 3.26 while the selected landscape fragmentation metrics were analyzed using FRAGSTATS 4.2. Forests, shrubs, and grasslands showed a declining trend, except for agriculture, water, and built-up areas, which depicted high increases for the study periods [1973 to 2022]. The landscape of the study area is characterized as progressively fragmenting as signified by high escalated values of patch number [374 %], edge density [7828 %] between 1986 and 2002, contagion [10.3%], and a declined value of Shannon Diversity Index [SHDI] [-17.42%], Shannon evenness index [SHEI] [-25.8 %] and connectedness [-43.3%]. Considering these results, high losses of forests and grasslands coupled with expansive farmlands and built-up areas have led to unprecedented landscape fragmentation From field surveys and oral interviews, this has not only left streams vulnerable to massive sediment loads but has also triggered annual floods which occur during wet months even though change in onset of rainfall seasons was also reported. The findings call for restoration and integrated and sustainable restoration efforts, especially for the forests, grasslands, and riparian corridors along with sustainable urban planning and community-based sensitization on watershed management.

Monitoring vegetation- and geodiversity with remote sensing and traits

Geodiversity has shaped and structured the Earth's surface at all spatio-temporal scales, not only through long-term processes but also through medium- and short-term processes. Geodiversity is, therefore, a key control and regulating variable in the overall development of landscapes and biodiversity. However, climate change and land use intensity are leading to major changes and disturbances in bio- and geodiversity. For sustainable ecosystem management, temporal, economically viable and standardized monitoring is needed to monitor and model the effects and changes in vegetation- and geodiversity. RS approaches have been used for this purpose for decades. However, to understand in detail how RS approaches capture vegetation- and geodiversity, the aim of this paper is to describe how five features of vegetation- and geodiversity are captured using RS technologies, namely: (i) trait diversity, (ii) phylogenetic/genese diversity, (iii) structural diversity, (iv) taxonomic diversity and (v) functional diversity. Trait diversity is essential for establishing the other four. Traits provide a crucial interface between in situ, close-range, aerial and space-based RS monitoring approaches. The trait approach allows complex data of different types and formats to be linked using the latest semantic data integration techniques, which will enable ecosystem integrity monitoring and modelling in the future. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Geodiversity for science and society'.

Light pollution and habitat fragmentation in the grey mouse lemur

Light pollution, by changing organisms' behavior, affects locomotion, migration and can ultimately fragment the habitat. To investigate the effects of light pollution on habitat fragmentation, we conducted an experimental study on a nocturnal and photosensitive primate, the grey mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus). Twelve males were housed individually in an apparatus with two cages connected by two corridors, opaque and transparent. During 4 nights, the transparent corridor was illuminated by specific light intensities: 0 lx, 0.3 lx, 20 lx and 51.5 lx corresponding respectively to total darkness, full moon, minimal intensity recommended by the European standard EN-13201 on public lighting, and to light pollution recorded in an urban area. Each night, general activity, use of corridors and cage occupancy were recorded using an infrared camera. For the first time in a nocturnal primate, results demonstrate that light pollution changes the preference of use of corridors, modifies the locomotor pattern and limits the ability of animals to efficiently exploit their environment according to a light intensity-dependent relationship. However, results indicate that a dark corridor allows partial compensation partly preserving general activities. This study highlights the necessity to consider light pollution during the implementation of conservation plans and the relevance of nocturnal frames.

Overgrazing on unmanaged grassland interfered with the restoration of adjacent grazing-banned grassland by affecting soil properties and microbial community

A "grazing ban" policy has been implemented in some pastoral areas in China to fence degraded grasslands for restoration. However, fencing increased grazing pressures in unmanaged grasslands. Based on the mechanism of negative edge effect, we investigated whether overgrazing on unmanaged grassland interfered with the restoration of adjacent grazing-banned grassland by affecting soil properties and microbial community using a sample in Hulun Buir of Inner Mongolia, in order to optimize the "grazing ban" policy. Plant and soil were sampled in areas 30 m away from the fence in unmanaged grassland (UM) and in areas 30 m (adjacent to UM) and 30-60 m (not adjacent to UM) away from the fence in the grazing-banned grassland (F-30 m and F-60 m). The species richness and diversity of plant communities and the ASV number of fungal communities significantly decreased in F-30 m and UM, and the Simpson index of the bacterial community significantly decreased in F-30 m compared with F-60 m. The abundance of fungi involved in soil organic matter decomposition significantly decreased and the abundance of stress-resistant bacteria significantly increased, while the abundance of bacteria involved in litter decomposition significantly decreased in UM and F-30 m compared with F-60 m. The simplification of plant communities decreased in soil water and total organic carbon contents can explain the variations of soil microbial communities in both UM and F-30 m compared with F-60 m. The results of PLS-PM show that changes in plant community and soil microbial function guilds in UM may affect those in F-30 m by changing soil water and total organic carbon contents. These results indicate that overgrazing on unmanaged grassland interfered with the restoration of adjacent grazing-banned grassland by affecting soil properties and microbial community. The grazing-banned grasslands should be adjusted periodically in order to avoid negative edge effects.

Understanding the connections between climate change, air pollution, and human health in Africa: Insights from a literature review

Climate change and air pollution are two interconnected global challenges that have profound impacts on human health. In Africa, a continent known for its rich biodiversity and diverse ecosystems, the adverse effects of climate change and air pollution are particularly concerning. This review study examines the implications of air pollution and climate change for human health and well-being in Africa. It explores the intersection of these two factors and their impact on various health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disorders, mental health, and vulnerable populations such as children and the elderly. The study highlights the disproportionate effects of air pollution on vulnerable groups and emphasizes the need for targeted interventions and policies to protect their health. Furthermore, it discusses the role of climate change in exacerbating air pollution and the potential long-term consequences for public health in Africa. The review also addresses the importance of considering temperature and precipitation changes as modifiers of the health effects of air pollution. By synthesizing existing research, this study aims to shed light on complex relationships and highlight the key findings, knowledge gaps, and potential solutions for mitigating the impacts of climate change and air pollution on human health in the region. The insights gained from this review can inform evidence-based policies and interventions to mitigate the adverse effects on human health and promote sustainable development in Africa.

Modeling forest landscape futures: Full scale simulation of realistic socioeconomic scenarios in Estonia

For political and administrative governance of land-use decisions, high-resolution and reliable spatial models are required over large areas and for various time horizons. We present a process-centered simulation model 'NextStand' (a forest landscape model, FLM) and its R-script, which predicts regional forest characteristics at a forest stand resolution. The model uses whole area stand data and is optimized for realistic iterative timber harvesting decisions, based on stand compositions (developing over time) and locations. We used the model for simulating spatial predictions of the Estonian forests in North Europe (2.3 Mha, about 2 M stands); the decisions were parameterized by land ownership, protection regimes, and rules of clear-cut harvesting. We illustrate the model application as a potential broad-scale Decision Support Tool by predicting how the forest age composition, placement of clear-cut areas, and connectivity of old stands will develop until the year 2050 under future scenarios. The country-scale outputs had a generally low within-scenario variance, which enabled to estimate some main land-use effects and uncertainties at small computing efforts. In forestry terms, we show that a continuation of recent intensive forest management trends will produce a decline of the national timber supplies in Estonia, which greatly varies among ownership types. In a conservation perspective, the current level of 13% forest area strictly protected can maintain an overall area of old forests by 2050, but their isolation is a problem for biodiversity conservation. The behavior of low-intensity forest management units (owners) and strict governance of clear-cut harvesting rules emerged as key questions for regional forest sustainability. Our study confirms that high-resolution modeling of future spatial composition of forest land is feasible when one can (i) delineate predictable spatial units of transformation (including management) and (ii) capture their variability of temporal change with simple ecological and socioeconomic (including human decision-making) variables.

Human Expansion-Induced Biodiversity Crisis over Asia from 2000 to 2020

Asia stands out as a priority for urgent biodiversity conservation due to its large protected areas (PAs) and threatened species. Since the 21st century, both the highlands and lowlands of Asia have been experiencing the dramatic human expansion. However, the threat degree of human expansion to biodiversity is poorly understood. Here, the threat degree of human expansion to biodiversity over 2000 to 2020 in Asia at the continental (Asia), national (48 Asian countries), and hotspot (6,502 Asian terrestrial PAs established before 2000) scales is investigated by integrating multiple large-scale data. The results show that human expansion poses widespread threat to biodiversity in Asia, especially in Southeast Asia, with Malaysia, Cambodia, and Vietnam having the largest threat degrees (∼1.5 to 1.7 times of the Asian average level). Human expansion in highlands induces higher threats to biodiversity than that in lowlands in one-third Asian countries (most Southeast Asian countries). The regions with threats to biodiversity are present in ∼75% terrestrial PAs (including 4,866 PAs in 26 countries), and human expansion in PAs triggers higher threat degrees to biodiversity than that in non-PAs. Our findings provide novel insight for the Sustainable Development Goal 15 (SDG-15 Life on Land) and suggest that human expansion in Southeast Asian countries and PAs might hinder the realization of SDG-15. To reduce the threat degree, Asian developing countries should accelerate economic transformation, and the developed countries in the world should reduce the demands for commodity trade in Southeast Asian countries (i.e., trade leading to the loss of wildlife habitats) to alleviate human expansion, especially in PAs and highlands.

Forests are critically important to global pollinator diversity and enhance pollination in adjacent crops

Although the importance of natural habitats to pollinator diversity is widely recognized, the value of forests to pollinating insects has been largely overlooked in many parts of the world. In this review, we (i) establish the importance of forests to global pollinator diversity, (ii) explore the relationship between forest cover and pollinator diversity in mixed-use landscapes, and (iii) highlight the contributions of forest-associated pollinators to pollination in adjacent crops. The literature shows unambiguously that native forests support a large number of forest-dependent species and are thus critically important to global pollinator diversity. Many pollinator taxa require or benefit greatly from resources that are restricted to forests, such as floral resources provided by forest plants (including wind-pollinated trees), dead wood for nesting, tree resins, and various non-floral sugar sources (e.g. honeydew). Although landscape-scale studies generally support the conclusion that forests enhance pollinator diversity, findings are often complicated by spatial scale, focal taxa, landscape context, temporal context, forest type, disturbance history, and external stressors. While some forest loss can be beneficial to pollinators by enhancing habitat complementarity, too much can result in the near-elimination of forest-associated species. There is strong evidence from studies of multiple crop types that forest cover can substantially increase yields in adjacent habitats, at least within the foraging ranges of the pollinators involved. The literature also suggests that forests may have enhanced importance to pollinators in the future given their role in mitigating the negative effects of pesticides and climate change. Many questions remain about the amount and configuration of forest cover required to promote the diversity of forest-associated pollinators and their services within forests and in neighbouring habitats. However, it is clear from the current body of knowledge that any effort to preserve native woody habitats, including the protection of individual trees, will benefit pollinating insects and help maintain the critical services they provide.

Global forest fragmentation change from 2000 to 2020

A comprehensive quantification of global forest fragmentation is urgently required to guide forest protection, restoration and reforestation policies. Previous efforts focused on the static distribution patterns of forest remnants, potentially neglecting dynamic changes in forest landscapes. Here, we map global distribution of forest fragments and their temporal changes between 2000 and 2020. We find that forest landscapes in the tropics were relatively intact, yet these areas experienced the most severe fragmentation over the past two decades. In contrast, 75.1% of the world's forests experienced a decrease in fragmentation, and forest fragmentation in most fragmented temperate and subtropical regions, mainly in northern Eurasia and South China, declined between 2000 and 2020. We also identify eight modes of fragmentation that indicate different recovery or degradation states. Our findings underscore the need to curb deforestation and increase connectivity among forest fragments, especially in tropical areas.

A new fractal index to classify forest fragmentation and disorder

Context

Forest loss and fragmentation pose extreme threats to biodiversity. Their efficient characterization from remotely sensed data therefore has strong practical implications. Data are often separately analyzed for spatial fragmentation and disorder, but no existing metric simultaneously quantifies both the shape and arrangement of fragments.

Objectives

We present a fractal fragmentation and disorder index (FFDI), which advances a previously developed fractal index by merging it with the Rényi information dimension. The FFDI is designed to work across spatial scales, and to efficiently report both the fragmentation of images and their spatial disorder.

Methods

We validate the FFDI with 12,600 synthetic hierarchically structured random map (HRM) multiscale images, as well as several other categories of fractal and non-fractal test images (4880 images). We then apply the FFDI to satellite imagery of forest cover for 10 distinct regions of the Romanian Carpathian Mountains from 2000–2021.

Results

The FFDI outperformed its two individual components (fractal fragmentation index and Rényi information dimension) in resolving spatial patterns of disorder and fragmentation when tested on HRM classes and other image types. The FFDI thus offers a clear advantage when compared to the individual use of fractal fragmentation index and the Information Dimension, and provided good classification performance in an application to real data.

Conclusions

This work improves on previous characterizations of landscape patterns. With the FFDI, scientists will be able to better monitor and understand forest fragmentation from satellite imagery. The FFDI may also find wider applicability in biology wherever image analysis is used.

Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar

While much progress has been achieved over the last decades, malaria surveillance and control remain a challenge in countries with limited health care access and resources. High-resolution predictions of malaria incidence using routine surveillance data could represent a powerful tool to health practitioners by targeting malaria control activities where and when they are most needed. Here, we investigate the predictors of spatio-temporal malaria dynamics in rural Madagascar, estimated from facility-based passive surveillance data. Specifically, this study integrates climate, land-use, and representative household survey data to explain and predict malaria dynamics at a high spatial resolution (i.e., by Fokontany, a cluster of villages) relevant to health care practitioners. Combining generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and path analyses, we found that socio-economic, land use and climatic variables are all important predictors of monthly malaria incidence at fine spatial scales, via both direct and indirect effects. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from our model were able to identify 58% of the Fokontany in the top quintile for malaria incidence and account for 77% of the variation in the Fokontany incidence rank. These results suggest that it is possible to build a predictive framework using environmental and social predictors that can be complementary to standard surveillance systems and help inform control strategies by field actors at local scales.

Altered cyclone-fire interactions are changing ecosystems

Global change is altering interactions between ecological disturbances. We review interactions between tropical cyclones and fires that affect woody biomes in many islands and coastal areas. Cyclone-induced damage to trees can increase fuel loads on the ground and dryness in the understory, which increases the likelihood, intensity, and area of subsequent fires. In forest biomes, cyclone-fire interactions may initiate a grass-fire cycle and establish stable open-canopy biomes. In cyclone-prone regions, frequent cyclone-enhanced fires may generate and maintain stable open-canopy biomes (e.g., savannas and woodlands). We discuss how global change is transforming fire and cyclone regimes, extensively altering cyclone-fire interactions. These altered cyclone-fire interactions are shifting biomes away from historical states and causing loss of biodiversity.

Edge effects and vertical stratification of aerial insectivorous bats across the interface of primary-secondary Amazonian rainforest

Edge effects, abiotic and biotic changes associated with habitat boundaries, are key drivers of community change in fragmented landscapes. Their influence is heavily modulated by matrix composition. With over half of the world’s tropical forests predicted to become forest edge by the end of the century, it is paramount that conservationists gain a better understanding of how tropical biota is impacted by edge gradients. Bats comprise a large fraction of tropical mammalian fauna and are demonstrably sensitive to habitat modification. Yet, knowledge about how bat assemblages are affected by edge effects remains scarce. Capitalizing on a whole-ecosystem manipulation in the Central Amazon, the aims of this study were to i) assess the consequences of edge effects for twelve aerial insectivorous bat species across the interface of primary and secondary forest, and ii) investigate if the activity levels of these species differed between the understory and canopy and if they were modulated by distance from the edge. Acoustic surveys were conducted along four 2-km transects, each traversing equal parts of primary and ca. 30-year-old secondary forest. Five models were used to assess the changes in the relative activity of forest specialists (three species), flexible forest foragers (three species), and edge foragers (six species). Modelling results revealed limited evidence of edge effects, except for forest specialists in the understory. No significant differences in activity were found between the secondary or primary forest but almost all species exhibited pronounced vertical stratification. Previously defined bat guilds appear to hold here as our study highlights that forest bats are more edge-sensitive than edge foraging bats. The absence of pronounced edge effects and the comparable activity levels between primary and old secondary forests indicates that old secondary forest can help ameliorate the consequences of fragmentation on tropical aerial insectivorous bats.

Global importance of Indigenous Peoples, their lands, and knowledge systems for saving the world's primates from extinction

Primates, represented by 521 species, are distributed across 91 countries primarily in the Neotropic, Afrotropic, and Indo-Malayan realms. Primates inhabit a wide range of habitats and play critical roles in sustaining healthy ecosystems that benefit human and nonhuman communities. Approximately 68% of primate species are threatened with extinction because of global pressures to convert their habitats for agricultural production and the extraction of natural resources. Here, we review the scientific literature and conduct a spatial analysis to assess the significance of Indigenous Peoples' lands in safeguarding primate biodiversity. We found that Indigenous Peoples' lands account for 30% of the primate range, and 71% of primate species inhabit these lands. As their range on these lands increases, primate species are less likely to be classified as threatened or have declining populations. Safeguarding Indigenous Peoples' lands, languages, and cultures represents our greatest chance to prevent the extinction of the world's primates.

Forest Habitat Fragmentation in Mountain Protected Areas Using Historical Corona KH-9 and Sentinel-2 Satellite Imagery

Forest habitat fragmentation is one of the global environmental issues of concern as a result of forest management practices and socioeconomic drivers. In this context, a constant evaluation of natural habitat conditions still remains a challenge in order to achieve a general image of the environmental state of a protected area for proper sustainable management. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the evolution of forest habitat in the last 40 years, focusing on Bucegi Natural Park, one of the most frequented protected areas in Romania, as relevant for highly human-impacted areas. Our approach integrates a historical panchromatic Corona KH-9 image from 1977 and present-day Sentinel-2 multispectral data from 2020 in order to calculate a series of spatial metrics that reveal changes in the pattern of the forest habitat and illustrate forest habitat fragmentation density. Object-based oriented analysis with supervised maximum likelihood classification was employed for the production of forest cover fragmentation maps. Ten landscape metrics were adapted to the analysis context, from patch statistics to proximity index. The results show a general growth of the forest surface but also an increase in habitat fragmentation in areas where tourism was developed. Fragmentation indices explain that larger and compact patches feature natural park protected forests after the spruce–fir secondary canopies were grown during the last 4–5 decades. The number of patches decreased to half, and their average size is double that of before. The method can be of extensive use for environmental monitoring in protected areas management and for understanding the environmental history connected to present-day problems that are to be fixed under rising human pressure.

Has China's New Round of Collective Forest Reforms Reduced Forest Fragmentation? A Case Study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

The new wave of reform of collective forestland tenure (NRCFT) in China is considered an important policy for achieving sustainable management of forest resources. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of NRCFT on forest fragmentation in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China based on a fixed-effects model. The forest fragmentation was analyzed based on the remote sensing images of Landsat and landscape pattern indices in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region from 2000 to 2018. The results showed that (1) The NRCFT has significantly contributed to reducing forest fragmentation. (2) The effect of economic growth on forest fragmentation showed an inverted U-shape. (3) The implementation of the Grain for Green Program (GGP) and the transformation of rural energy consumption significantly reduce the degree of forest fragmentation. This study has crucial implications for formulating policies, achieving good forest governance, and reducing forest fragmentation.

Herbivory Rather than Root Competition and Environmental Factors Determines Plant Establishment in Fragmented Forests

In fragmented forests, many factors can affect plant community establishment, including abiotic factors, below-ground root competition, aboveground seed predation, and seedling herbivory. Little is known about the relative effects of biotic and abiotic factors affecting the initial stage of seedling establishment: seed gemmation and early seedling survival. Here, we carried out a root competition exclusion experiment and a herbivory (including seed predation) exclusion experiment on 11 islands in Thousand Island Lake, China, using four native woody plant species that differed in functional traits (e.g., seed mass and dominance). The dominant species on islands showed the highest seedling survival, and there was no significant linear relationship between the proportion of surviving seedlings and island area under either treatment for any species. Compared to the control and excluding root competition treatments, excluding seed predation and herbivory significantly increased seedling survival after controlling for the environmental factors. However, abiotic factors had no effect on early seedling establishment. Our results suggest that seedling regeneration of rare species in fragmented ecosystems may be limited and that seedlings may be more susceptible to predators and herbivores in fragmented ecosystems. These results have significant implications for the conservation of plant diversity in fragmented forests.

Habitat preferences, estimated abundance and behavior of tree hyrax (Dendrohyrax sp.) in fragmented montane forests of Taita Hills, Kenya

We studied a previously almost unknown nocturnal mammal, an apparently undescribed species of tree hyrax (Dendrohyrax sp.) in the moist montane forests of Taita Hills, Kenya. We used thermal imaging to locate tree hyraxes, observe their behavior, and to identify woody plants most frequently visited by the selective browsers. We also documented acoustic behavior in forest fragments of different sizes. Data on calling type and frequency were analyzed together with lidar data to estimate population densities and to identify forest stand characteristics associated with large populations. Viable populations were found only in the largest forest fragments (> 90 ha), where tree hyraxes preferred most pristine forest stands with high, multilayered canopies. The estimated population sizes in smaller forest fragments were very limited, and hyraxes were heard to call only during late night and early morning hours, presumably in order to avoid detection. While we frequently recorded tree hyrax songs in the largest forest fragments, we almost never heard songs in the small ones. All remaining subpopulations of the Taita tree hyrax are under threat of human disturbance and further habitat deterioration. Conservation efforts should include protection of all remaining habitat patches, but also reforestation of former habitat is urgently needed.

Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests

Biophysical effects from deforestation have the potential to amplify carbon losses but are often neglected in carbon accounting systems. Here we use both Earth system model simulations and satellite-derived estimates of aboveground biomass to assess losses of vegetation carbon caused by the influence of tropical deforestation on regional climate across different continents. In the Amazon, warming and drying arising from deforestation result in an additional 5.1 ± 3.7% loss of aboveground biomass. Biophysical effects also amplify carbon losses in the Congo (3.8 ± 2.5%) but do not lead to significant additional carbon losses in tropical Asia due to its high levels of annual mean precipitation. These findings indicate that tropical forests may be undervalued in carbon accounting systems that neglect climate feedbacks from surface biophysical changes and that the positive carbon-climate feedback from deforestation-driven climate change is higher than the feedback originating from fossil fuel emissions.

Forest Ecosystem Fragmentation in Ecuador: Challenges for Sustainable Land Use in the Tropical Andean

Natural ecosystems are declining and fragmenting globally at unprecedented rates. Fragmentation of natural ecosystems leads to decline in functions and services with severe impact on people. In Ecuador, despite establishment of the nationwide ecosystem classification, this baseline information has not been fully exploited to generate a monitoring system for ecosystem changes. Forest ecosystems are altered daily in Ecuador by human impact, but the relationship between forest fragmentation and human land use has not been adequately explored. To provide an overview of how recent forest fragmentation at the national and ecosystem level was affected by practices in human land use, we quantified the degree of forest fragmentation using the forest fragmentation index (FFI). The relationship between the degree of forest ecosystem fragmentation and human land use of 64 natural forest ecosystems was analyzed during the time period 1990 to 2014. At the national level, the expansion of pasture and inhabited area significantly increased forest fragmentation. The regression models based on the FFI value indicated that the forest fragmentation was highly correlated to pastures in forest ecosystems with low, moderate, and high fragmentation in 2014 due to a progressive increase in pastures. This study showed the critical gaps between forest conservation strategies and actual practices in human land use.

The Contribution of Trees Outside of Forests to Landscape Carbon and Climate Change Mitigation in West Africa

While closed canopy forests have been an important focal point for land cover change monitoring and climate change mitigation, less consideration has been given to methods for large scale measurements of trees outside of forests. Trees outside of forests are an important but often overlooked natural resource throughout sub-Saharan Africa, providing benefits for livelihoods as well as climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study, the development of an individual tree cover map using very high-resolution remote sensing and a comparison with a new automated machine learning mapping product revealed an important contribution of trees outside of forests to landscape tree cover and carbon stocks in a region where trees outside of forests are important components of livelihood systems. Here, we test and demonstrate the use of allometric scaling from remote sensing crown area to provide estimates of landscape-scale carbon stocks. Prominent biomass and carbon maps from global-scale remote sensing greatly underestimate the “invisible” carbon in these sparse tree-based systems. The measurement of tree cover and carbon in these landscapes has important application in climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.

A Novel Approach for Forest Fragmentation Susceptibility Mapping and Assessment: A Case Study from the Indian Himalayan Region

An estimation of where forest fragmentation is likely to occur is critically important for improving the integrity of the forest landscape. We prepare a forest fragmentation susceptibility map for the first time by developing an integrated model and identify its causative factors in the forest landscape. Our proposed model is based upon the synergistic use of the earth observation data, forest fragmentation approach, patch forests, causative factors, and the weight-of-evidence (WOE) method in a Geographical Information System (GIS) platform. We evaluate the applicability of the proposed model in the Indian Himalayan region, a region of rich biodiversity and environmental significance in the Indian subcontinent. To obtain a forest fragmentation susceptibility map, we used patch forests as past evidence of completely degraded forests. Subsequently, we used these patch forests in the WOE method to assign the standardized weight value to each class of causative factors tested by the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) method. Finally, we prepare a forest fragmentation susceptibility map and classify it into five levels: very low, low, medium, high, and very high and test its validity using 30% randomly selected patch forests. Our study reveals that around 40% of the study area is highly susceptible to forest fragmentation. This study identifies that forest fragmentation is more likely to occur if proximity to built-up areas, roads, agricultural lands, and streams is low, whereas it is less likely to occur in higher altitude zones (more than 2000 m a.s.l.). Additionally, forest fragmentation will likely occur in areas mainly facing south, east, southwest, and southeast directions and on very gentle and gentle slopes (less than 25 degrees). This study identifies Himalayan moist temperate and pine forests as being likely to be most affected by forest fragmentation in the future. The results suggest that the study area would experience more forest fragmentation in the future, meaning loss of forest landscape integrity and rich biodiversity in the Indian Himalayan region. Our integrated model achieved a prediction accuracy of 88.7%, indicating good accuracy of the model. This study will be helpful to minimize forest fragmentation and improve the integrity of the forest landscape by implementing forest restoration and reforestation schemes.