Aligning Conservation Priorities Across Taxa in Madagascar with High-Resolution Planning Tools

LIFEPLAN: A worldwide biodiversity sampling design

As the technology for mass identification of species is advancing rapidly, we developed a field sampling method that takes advantage of the emerging possibilities of combining sensor-based data with automated high-throughput data processing. This article describes the five field sampling methods used by the LIFEPLAN project to collect biodiversity data in a systematic manner, all over the world. These methods are designed for use by anyone with basic biology or ecology knowledge from the higher education or university level. We present the selection and characteristics of international sampling locations for urban and natural sites, as well as the nested scale design in the Nordic countries and Madagascar. We describe the steps to collect sequences of animal images (.jpg) from infrared triggered camera traps, audio data (.WAV) of environment sounds from audio recorders, invertebrate samples in ethanol from Malaise traps for DNA metabarcoding, as well as both soil samples and 24-hour air samples obtained from cyclone samplers for fungal DNA metabarcoding. To ensure the usability and consistency of the data for future use, we pay particular attention to the metadata collected. In specifying the current sampling protocols, we note that technology will continue to improve and evolve. Hardware will also change within a short time period, with the advantage of improving the equipment used for collecting samples. Thus, we present examples of the samples collected by each current sampling method, to be used as a baseline or in comparison with different equipment models.

Taxonomic diversity of terrestrial vertebrates in west-central Mexico: Conservation from a multi-taxa perspective

Multi-taxa approaches are increasingly used because they describe complementary aspects of ecosystem dynamics from a community ecology perspective. In west-central Mexico, the complex biogeography and topography have created an environment where temperate and tropical forests converge, resulting in great biological diversity. Within this region, the Sierra de Quila Natural Protected Area (SQPA) offers an important example for understanding ecological community dynamics. We analyze the taxonomic diversity of terrestrial vertebrates in the SQPA by incorporating taxonomic levels associated with species. We evaluated the taxonomic diversity with i) an average taxonomic distinctiveness analysis (alpha diversity) and ii) an analysis of taxonomic dissimilarity and partitioning of turnover and differences in richness components (beta diversity). Tropical forests boast the highest taxonomic diversity of amphibians, reptiles, and birds, while temperate gallery forests exhibit lower values. Our results showed that terrestrial vertebrate alpha and beta diversity patterns respond mainly to contrasting vegetation types (tropical vs. temperate). Regarding beta diversity, the multi-vegetation type analysis showed the highest values for reptiles, followed by amphibians, birds, and mammals. Turnover had the highest contribution to beta diversity, while differences in richness were relevant for amphibians and reptiles, which could be related to their low mobility and sensitivity to environmental conditions. Despite the local scale, the SQPA presented high beta diversity, reflecting historical ecological processes in taxonomic composition derived from contrasting environments and constraints imposed on species. Evaluating taxonomic structure from a multi-taxa perspective is essential for conservation efforts because it allows the spatial recognition of biological assemblages as a first step for local interventions.

A new miniaturized species of leaf chameleon, genus Brookesia, from a littoral forest fragment in eastern Madagascar

The number of species of miniaturized chameleons of the genus Brookesia, subgenus Evoluticauda, known to science has witnessed a dramatic increase over the past 15 years, due to the discovery of multiple microendemic species of very strong genetic divergence. So far, no described Evoluticauda species are known from the littoral forest of Madagascar's east coast, one of the most threatened habitat types of the island. Here, we report on the discovery of a new species of Evoluticauda occurring in the littoral forest at Ankanin'ny Nofy, a touristic site at about sea level and close to Vohibola forest where probably the same species occurs. The new species, Brookesia nofy sp. nov., is sister to B. ramanantsoai which occurs in mid-altitude and highland forests (800-1300 m a.s.l.) at a similar latitude of eastern Madagascar, but differs from this species by an enormous genetic divergence in both mitochondrial and nuclear genes (8.1-9.4% uncorrected pairwise distance in the 16S rRNA gene, 1.8-2.5% in c-mos), a relatively shorter tail, a different arrangement of cephalic ridges, and probably smaller body size and relatively larger head. The discovery of B. nofy sp. nov. emphasizes the importance of conserving Madagascar's last remaining fragments of littoral forest.

Testing spatial transferability of species distribution models reveals differing habitat preferences for an endangered delphinid (Cephalorhynchus hectori) in Aotearoa, New Zealand

Species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict distributions in novel times or space (termed transferability) and fill knowledge gaps for areas that are data poor. In conservation, this can be used to determine the extent of spatial protection required. To understand how well a model transfers spatially, it needs to be independently tested, using data from novel habitats. Here, we test the transferability of SDMs for Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori), a culturally important (taonga) and endangered, coastal delphinid, endemic to Aotearoa New Zealand. We collected summer distribution data from three populations from 2021 to 2023. Using Generalised Additive Models, we built presence/absence SDMs for each population and validated the predictive ability of the top models (with TSS and AUC). Then, we tested the transferability of each top model by predicting the distribution of the remaining two populations. SDMs for two populations showed useful performance within their respective areas (Banks Peninsula and Otago), but when used to predict the two areas outside the models' source data, performance declined markedly. SDMs from the third area (Timaru) performed poorly, both for prediction within the source area and when transferred spatially. When data for model building were combined from two areas, results were mixed. Model interpolation was better when presence/absence data from Otago, an area of low density, were combined with data from areas of higher density, but was otherwise poor. The overall poor transferability of SDMs suggests that habitat preferences of Hector's dolphins vary between areas. For these dolphins, population-specific distribution data should be used for conservation planning. More generally, we demonstrate that a one model fits all approach is not always suitable. When SDMs are used to predict distribution in data-poor areas an assessment of performance in the new habitat is required, and results should be interpreted with caution.

Patterns of Grewia (Malvaceae) diversity across geographical scales in Africa and Madagascar

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Quantifying spatial species richness is useful to describe biodiversity patterns across broad geographical areas, especially in large, poorly known plant groups. We explore patterns and predictors of species richness across Africa in one such group, the palaeotropical genus Grewia L. (Malvaceae).

METHODS

Grewia species richness was quantified by extracting herbarium records from GBIF and Tropicos and creating geographical grids at varying spatial scales. We assessed predictors of species richness using spatial regression models with 30 environmental variables. We explored species co-occurrence in Madagascar at finer resolutions using Schoener's index and compared species range sizes and International Union for Conservation of Nature status among ecoregions. Lastly, we derived a trait matrix for a subset of species found in Madagascar to characterize morphological diversity across space.

KEY RESULTS

Grewia species occur in 50 countries in Africa, with the highest number of species in Madagascar (93, with 80 species endemic). Species richness is highest in Madagascar, with ≤23 Grewia species in a grid cell, followed by coastal Tanzania/Kenya (≤13 species) and northern South Africa and central Angola (11 species each). Across Africa, higher species richness was predicted by variables related to aridity. In Madagascar, a greater range in environmental variables best predicted species richness, consistent with geographical grid cells of highest species richness occurring near biome/ecoregion transitions. In Madagascar, we also observe increasing dissimilarity in species composition with increasing geographical distance.

CONCLUSIONS

The spatial patterns and underlying environmental predictors that we uncover in Grewia represent an important step in our understanding of plant distribution and diversity patterns across Africa. Madagascar boasts nearly twice the Grewia species richness of the second most species-rich country in Africa, which might be explained by complex topography and environmental conditions across small spatial scales.

Predicting the current and future distribution of Monochamus carolinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) based on the maximum entropy model

BACKGROUND

Monochamus carolinensis is an important vector of pinewood nematodes in North America that is under quarantine in several countries worldwide. The distribution of M. carolinensis was previously thought to be limited to North America; however, we discovered it during trapping in China in 2022. Using this discovery and information regarding the area of origin, we applied a machine-learning algorithm based on the maximum entropy principle to predict the current and future (2050s, 2070s) potential distribution areas of M. carolinensis using bioclimatic variables.

RESULTS

The biological suitability of M. carolinensis was mainly driven by precipitation factors (BIO18, BIO15, BIO19), with 87.18% of the potential distribution areas located in South America, Asia, North America and Africa. Future potential distribution areas of M. carolinensis are predicted to expand to high latitudes, with an average increase of 10 245 874.88 km2 , and only 6.89% of the current suitable areas will become unsuitable. The potential distribution areas in 2070 are largest under the SSP585 scenario, with a 41.40% predicted increase (52 309 803.61 km2 ) above the current distribution, mainly reflecting an increase of the marginally and highly suitable areas.

CONCLUSION

The determination of dominant climatic factors and potential distribution areas will help provide an early warning for an M. carolinensis invasion, as well as provide a scientific basis for the spread and outbreak, facilitating development of effective governmental prevention and control measures. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

A conservation planning strategy applied to the evolutionary history of the mantellid frogs of Madagascar

Phylogenetic diversity is an increasingly applied metric used to maximize the representation of evolutionary history in spatial conservation planning. When following this approach, researchers commonly overlook sites with a relatively higher proportion of recently diverged endemic species, also known as centers of neo-endemism. Here we aim to demonstrate how targeting the conservation of different facets of diversity (taxonomic diversity, phylogenetic diversity and centers of endemism) can provide more cost-effective solutions to the conservation of the all evolutionary spectrum of biodiversity. We do so by using the mantellid frogs of Madagascar as a case study. Our results confirm that areas with high concentrations of neo-endemism can be effectively identified as conservation planning priorities only if we specifically target them. Neglecting areas that are poor in phylogenetic diversity may therefore compromise the maintenance of diversification processes, particularly when lesser proportions of the landscape are protected. This approach can be of particular interest to island ecosystems, since they often harbor unique and restricted evolutionary radiations.

The role of reservoir species in mediating plague's dynamic response to climate

The distribution and transmission of Yersinia pestis, the bacterial agent of plague, responds dynamically to climate, both within wildlife reservoirs and human populations. The exact mechanisms mediating plague's response to climate are still poorly understood, particularly across large environmentally heterogeneous regions encompassing several reservoir species. A heterogeneous response to precipitation was observed in plague intensity across northern and southern China during the Third Pandemic. This has been attributed to the response of reservoir species in each region. We use environmental niche modelling and hindcasting methods to test the response of a broad range of reservoir species to precipitation. We find little support for the hypothesis that the response of reservoir species to precipitation mediated the impact of precipitation on plague intensity. We instead observed that precipitation variables were of limited importance in defining species niches and rarely showed the expected response to precipitation across northern and southern China. These findings do not suggest that precipitation-reservoir species dynamics never influence plague intensity but that instead, the response of reservoir species to precipitation across a single biome cannot be assumed and that limited numbers of reservoir species may have a disproportional impact upon plague intensity.

Projected Shifts in Bird Distribution in India under Climate Change

Global climate change is causing unprecedented impacts on biodiversity. In India, there is little information available regarding how climate change affects biodiversity at the taxon/group level, and large-scale ecological analyses have been lacking. In this study, we demonstrated the applicability of eBird and GBIF (Global Biodiversity Information Facility), and produced national-scale forecasts to examine the possible impacts of climate change on terrestrial avifauna in India. Using data collected by citizen scientists, we developed fine-tuned Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and predicted 1091 terrestrial bird species that would be distributed in India by 2070 on two climatic surfaces (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), using Maximum Entropy-based species distribution algorithms. Of the 1091 species modelled, our findings indicate that 66–73% of bird species in India will shift to higher elevations or shift northward, and 58–59% of bird species (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) would lose a portion of their distribution ranges. Furthermore, distribution ranges of 41–40% of bird species would increase. Under both RCP scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), bird species diversity will significantly increase in regions above 2500 m in elevation. Both RCP scenarios predict extensive changes in the species richness of the western Himalayas, Sikkim, northeast India, and the western Ghats regions by 2070. This study has resulted in novel, high-resolution maps of terrestrial bird species richness across India, and we predict predominantly northward shifts in species ranges, similar to predictions made for avifauna in other regions, such as Europe and the USA.

Rare and declining bird species benefit most from designating protected areas for conservation in the UK

There have been recent renewed commitments to increase the extent of protected areas to combat the growing biodiversity crisis but the underpinning evidence for their effectiveness is mixed and causal connections are rarely evaluated. We used data gathered by three large-scale citizen science programmes in the UK to provide the most comprehensive assessment to date of whether national (Sites of Special Scientific Interest) and European (Special Protection Areas/Special Areas of Conservation) designated areas are associated with improved state (occurrence, abundance), change (rates of colonization, persistence and trend in abundance), community structure and, uniquely, demography (productivity) on a national avifauna, while controlling for differences in land cover, elevation and climate. We found positive associations with state that suggest these areas are well targeted and that the greatest benefit accrued to the most conservation-dependent species since positive associations with change were largely restricted to rare and declining species and habitat specialists. We suggest that increased productivity provides a plausible demographic mechanism for positive effects of designation.

Drivers of Three Most Charismatic Mammalian Species Distribution across a Multiple-Use Tropical Forest Landscape of Sumatra, Indonesia

Tropical Rainforest Heritage sites of Sumatra are some of the most irreplaceable landscapes in the world for biodiversity conservation. These landscapes harbor many endangered Asiatic mammals all suffering multifaceted threats due to anthropogenic activities. Three charismatic mammals in Sumatra: Elephas maximus sumatranus, Pongo abelii, and Panthera tigris sumatrae are protected and listed as Critically Endangered (CR) within the IUCN Red List. Nevertheless, their current geographic distribution remains unclear, and the impact of environmental factors on these species are mostly unknown. This study predicts the potential range of those species on the island of Sumatra using anthropogenic, biophysical, topographic, and climatic parameters based on the ensemble machine learning algorithms. We also investigated the effects of habitat loss from current land use, ecosystem availability, and importance of Indonesian protected areas. Our predictive model had relatively excellent performance (Sørensen: 0.81-0.94) and can enhance knowledge on the current species distributions. The most critical environmental predictors for the distribution of the three species are conservation status and temperature seasonality. This study revealed that more than half of the species distributions occurred in non-protected areas, with proportional coverage being 83%, 72%, and 54% for E.m. sumatranus, P. abelii, and P.t. sumatrae, respectively. Our study further provides reliable information on places where conservation efforts must be prioritized, both inside and outside of the protected area networks, to safeguard the ongoing survival of these Indonesian large charismatic mammals.

Limited reciprocal surrogacy of bird and habitat diversity and inconsistencies in their representation in Romanian protected areas

Because it is impossible to comprehensively characterize biodiversity at all levels of organization, conservation prioritization efforts need to rely on surrogates. As species distribution maps of relished groups as well as high-resolution remotely sensed data increasingly become available, both types of surrogates are commonly used. A good surrogate should represent as much of biodiversity as possible, but it often remains unclear to what extent this is the case. Here, we aimed to address this question by assessing how well bird species and habitat diversity represent one another. We conducted our study in Romania, a species-rich country with high landscape heterogeneity where bird species distribution data have only recently started to become available. First, we prioritized areas for conservation based on either 137 breeding bird species or 36 habitat classes, and then evaluated their reciprocal surrogacy performance. Second, we examined how well these features are represented in already existing protected areas. Finally, we identified target regions of high conservation value for the potential expansion of the current network of reserves (as planned under the new EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030). We found a limited reciprocal surrogacy performance, with bird species performing slightly better as a conservation surrogate for habitat diversity than vice versa. We could also show that areas with a high conservation value based on habitat diversity were represented better in already existing protected areas than areas based on bird species, which varied considerably between species. Our results highlight that taxonomic and environmental (i.e., habitat types) data may perform rather poorly as reciprocal surrogates, and multiple sources of data are required for a full evaluation of protected areas expansion.

The impact of global warming on the niches and pollinator availability of sexually deceptive orchid with a single pollen vector

Orchidaceae are among the most endangered plants in the world. Considering the sensitive nature of pollinator-plant relationship the most vulnerable are species which are dependent on a single pollen vector. In this paper the future distribution of suitable niches of Australian sexually deceptive orchid Leporella fimbriata and its pollinator (Myrmecia urens) was estimated using three machine learning algorithms. While the potential range of fringed hare orchid depending on modelling method will be larger or slightly reduced than currently observed, the ant will face significant loss of suitable niches. As a result of global warming the overlap of orchid and its only pollen vector will most probably decrease. The unavailability of pollen vector will lead to decreased reproductive success and as a result it will be a great threat for L. fimbriata existence.

Assessment and prioritization of cultural ecosystem services in the Sahara-Sahelian region

Desert environments remain largely neglected by the society and their potential to provide benefits to people remain understudied. Hotspots of cultural ecosystem services have been identified in some deserts; yet, knowing which countries need to strengthen efforts to satisfy people's demand for those services is timely needed. Here, we show the performance of countries within the Earth's largest warm region - the Sahara-Sahel - in managing cultural ecosystem services. Using the most-advanced decision-support tools and updated databases on biodiversity features and constrains to ecosystem services and on socioeconomic indicators, we identified national priorities for cultural services management. We also identified countries that are missing opportunities for local sustainable development. About 34% of Sahara-Sahel is prioritized for cultural ecosystem services, particularly in the main mountains and waterbodies of the region and along the Western and Eastern coastal limits. Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Senegal, and Tunisia are performing better in managing their cultural services given the availability of such services in their territories. Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Egypt, Libya, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Sudan, and South Sudan need to urgently improve their ease of mobility, governance, safety, socioeconomic and health systems to foster ecosystem services demand. Cameroon, Eritrea, and Senegal are receiving far less tourists than what their ecosystems can handle and need to improve their local conditions for better marketing international tourists able to economically contribute to sustainable development through ecotourism programs. The approach developed here serves as a framework for conserving the last world wild ecosystems and is replicable to other contexts where regional planning for ecosystem management is compulsory.

Data on the present and future distribution of suitable niches of the black vanilla orchid (Nigritella nigra s.l., Orchidaceae) and its pollinators

The black vanilla orchid (Nigritella nigra s.l.) is a perennial plant found in the main European mountain ranges. It occurs in large numbers in the Alps, but it has become a rare and endangered species in Scandinavia due to the loss of suitable habitats. Here we present occurrence data on the occurrence of N. nigra s.l. and pollinators of this species which were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the future distribution of the black vanilla orchid and its pollen vectors. Moreover, the values of bioclimatic variables for each locality are provided. The binary distribution models of both, orchids and insects, created using ecological niche modeling (ENM) technique are presented together with the information about changes in the coverage of suitable niches of studied organisms. Our data were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on orchid and its pollinator (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01560) and datasets can be reused in other research on past and future distribution of suitable niches of the black vanilla orchid and its pollinators as well as in other biogeographical studies. Moreover, presented outcomes of research can be useful in establishing conservation plans for montane orchids and their pollinators.

Regional disparity in extinction risk: Comparison of disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia and eastern North America

Climate and land cover changes are increasing threats to biodiversity globally. However, potentially varying biotic sensitivity is a major source of uncertainty for translating environmental changes to extinction risks. To reduce this uncertainty, we assessed how extinction risks will be affected by future human-driven environmental changes, focusing on 554 species from 52 disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia (EAS) and eastern North America (ENA) to control for differences in environmental sensitivity at the genus level. Species distribution models were used to estimate and compare the vulnerability of species in disjunct genera between the two regions under two climate and land cover change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in the 2070s, allowing to assess the effects of differences in climate and land cover pressures. Compared with ENA, stronger pressures from climate and land cover changes along with smaller range sizes in EAS translate into a larger number and proportion of species in disjunct genera becoming threatened by the 2070s. These regional differences are more pronounced under a best-case climate scenario (RCP2.6), illustrating that strong climate change (RCP8.5) may override any regional buffer capacities. The main variables determining extinction risks differed between the two continental regions, with annual temperature range and cropland expansion being important in EAS, and annual precipitation being important in ENA. These results suggest that disparities in regional exposure to anthropogenic environmental changes may cause congeneric species with relatively similar sensitivity to have different future risks of extinction. Moreover, the findings highlight the context-specific nature of anthropogenic effects on biodiversity and the importance of making region-specific policies for conservation and restoration in response to the intensifying global changes.

Genetic data improves niche model discrimination and alters the direction and magnitude of climate change forecasts

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have classically operated under the simplifying assumptions that there are no barriers to gene flow, species are genetically homogeneous (i.e., no population-specific local adaptation), and all individuals share the same niche. Yet, these assumptions are violated for most broadly distributed species. Here, we incorporate genetic data from the widespread riparian tree species narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia) to examine whether including intraspecific genetic variation can alter model performance and predictions of climate change impacts. We found that (1) P. angustifolia is differentiated into six genetic groups across its range from México to Canada and (2) different populations occupy distinct climate niches representing unique ecotypes. Comparing model discriminatory power, (3) all genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) outperformed the standard species-level ENM (3-14% increase in AUC; 1-23% increase in pROC). Furthermore, (4) gENMs predicted large differences among ecotypes in both the direction and magnitude of responses to climate change and (5) revealed evidence of niche divergence, particularly for the Eastern Rocky Mountain ecotype. (6) Models also predicted progressively increasing fragmentation and decreasing overlap between ecotypes. Contact zones are often hotspots of diversity that are critical for supporting species' capacity to respond to present and future climate change, thus predicted reductions in connectivity among ecotypes is of conservation concern. We further examined the generality of our findings by comparing our model developed for a higher elevation Rocky Mountain species with a related desert riparian cottonwood, P. fremontii. Together our results suggest that incorporating intraspecific genetic information can improve model performance by addressing this important source of variance. gENMs bring an evolutionary perspective to niche modeling and provide a truly "adaptive management" approach to support conservation genetic management of species facing global change.

Suitability of Habitats in Nepal for Dactylorhiza hatagirea Now and under Predicted Future Changes in Climate

Dactylorhiza hatagirea is a terrestrial orchid listed in Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and classified as threatened by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). It is endemic to the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, distributed from Pakistan to China. The main threat to its existence is climate change and the associated change in the distribution of its suitable habitats to higher altitudes due to increasing temperature. It is therefore necessary to determine the habitats that are suitable for its survival and their expected distribution after the predicted changes in climate. To do this, we use Maxent modelling of the data for its 208 locations. We predict its distribution in 2050 and 2070 using four climate change models and two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This revealed severe losses of suitable habitat in Nepal, in which, under the worst scenario, there will be a 71–81% reduction the number of suitable locations for D. hatagirea by 2050 and 95–98% by 2070. Under the most favorable scenario, this reduction will be 65–85% by 2070. The intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory surprisingly would result in a greater reduction by 2070 than the worst-case scenario. Our results provide important guidelines that local authorities interested in conserving this species could use to select areas that need to be protected now and in the future.

Quo vadis? Historical distribution and impact of climate change on the worldwide distribution of the Australasian fungus Clathrus archeri (Phallales, Basidiomycota)

Clathrus archeri is a fungus native to Australia and New Zealand that has started to expand into Europe, and it is considered a potentially invasive species. In this study, we examine the historical occurrence, current geographical range and potential future changes in the distribution of C. archeri using worldwide distribution data. Ecological modelling was used to assess the locations of the potential climatic niches of C. archeri within both its native and introduced ranges in the past, present and future. Our study clearly shows that the coverage of suitable habitats of this fungus has decreased since the last glacial maximum, and anthropogenic climate changes are accelerating the process of niche loss. The highest rate of C. archeri range contraction is expected in Australia, where the fungus should be considered a threatened species in the future. Highly valuable habitats will be available in Tasmania and New Zealand. However, a significant expansion rate of C. archeri will still probably be observed in Europe, where the climatic conditions preferred by the fungus will allow its quick expansion northeast into the continent.

Predicting Hotspots and Prioritizing Protected Areas for Endangered Primate Species in Indonesia under Changing Climate

Simple Summary

Primates play an essential role in human life and its ecosystem. However, Indonesian primates have suffered many threats due to climate change and altered landscapes that lead to extinction. Therefore, primate conservation planning and strategies are important in maintaining their population. We quantified how extensively the protected areas overlapped primate hotspots and how it changes under mitigation and worst-case scenarios of climate change. Finally, we provide protected areas recommendations based on species richness and land-use changes under the worst-case scenario for Indonesian primate conservation planning and management options.

Abstract

Indonesia has a large number of primate diversity where a majority of the species are threatened. In addition, climate change is conservation issues that biodiversity may likely face in the future, particularly among primates. Thus, species-distribution modeling was useful for conservation planning. Herein, we present protected areas (PA) recommendations with high nature-conservation importance based on species-richness changes. We performed maximum entropy (Maxent) to retrieve species distribution of 51 primate species across Indonesia. We calculated species-richness change and range shifts to determine the priority of PA for primates under mitigation and worst-case scenarios by 2050. The results suggest that the models have an excellent performance based on seven different metrics. Current primate distributions occupied 65% of terrestrial landscape. However, our results indicate that 30 species of primates in Indonesia are likely to be extinct by 2050. Future primate species richness would be also expected to decline with the alpha diversity ranging from one to four species per 1 km². Based on our results, we recommend 54 and 27 PA in Indonesia to be considered as the habitat-restoration priority and refugia, respectively. We conclude that species-distribution modeling approach along with the categorical species richness is effectively applicable for assessing primate biodiversity patterns.

Toward reliable habitat suitability and accessibility models in an era of multiple environmental stressors

Global biodiversity declines, largely driven by climate and land-use changes, urge the development of transparent guidelines for effective conservation strategies. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a widely used approach for predicting potential shifts in species distributions, which can in turn support ecological conservation where environmental change is expected to impact population and community dynamics. Improvements in SDM accuracy through incorporating intra- and interspecific processes have boosted the SDM field forward, but simultaneously urge harmonizing the vast array of SDM approaches into an overarching, widely adoptable, and scientifically justified SDM framework. In this review, we first discuss how climate warming and land-use change interact to govern population dynamics and species' distributions, depending on species' dispersal and evolutionary abilities. We particularly emphasize that both land-use and climate change can reduce the accessibility to suitable habitat for many species, rendering the ability of species to colonize new habitat and to exchange genetic variation a crucial yet poorly implemented component of SDM. We then unite existing methodological SDM practices that aim to increase model accuracy through accounting for multiple global change stressors, dispersal, or evolution, while shifting our focus to model feasibility. We finally propose a roadmap harmonizing model accuracy and feasibility, applicable to both common and rare species, particularly those with poor dispersal abilities. This roadmap (a) paves the way for an overarching SDM framework allowing comparison and synthesis of different SDM studies and (b) could advance SDM to a level that allows systematic integration of SDM outcomes into effective conservation plans.

Ecological niche modeling of the pantropical orchid Polystachya concreta (Orchidaceae) and its response to climate change

Climate is the dominant control factor on the spatial distribution of organisms on a global scale and global warming is predicted to become a major cause of species extinctions. In our study ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate the effect of projected future climate changes on the pantropical orchid Polystacha concreta as well as to reconstruct changes in the distribution of the suitable climatic niches of this species since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The study revealed small differences in the niches occupied by populations of P. concreta recorded in various continents; however, these alterations will become more significant in regard to future climatic change. While losses of suitable habitats of the studied orchid will occur in the Americas and Africa, global warming will be favorable for Asian populations. Our study suggests a significant loss of niches since the LGM which indicates that the currently observed loss of habitats is not only the result of human activity but also of natural changes of the Earth’s climate. From the obtained models we identified the areas that will be the most resistant regarding the modifications caused by climate change.

Hierarchical multi-grain models improve descriptions of species' environmental associations, distribution, and abundance

The characterization of species' environmental niches and spatial distribution predictions based on them are now central to much of ecology and conservation, but implicitly requires decisions about the appropriate spatial scale (i.e., grain) of analysis. Ecological theory and empirical evidence suggest that range-resident species respond to their environment at two characteristic, hierarchical spatial grains: (1) response grain, the (relatively fine) grain at which an individual uses environmental resources, and (2) occupancy grain, the (relatively coarse) grain equivalent to a typical home range. We use a multi-grain (MG) occupancy model, aided by fine-grain remotely sensed imagery, to simultaneously estimate species-environment associations at both grains, conduct grain optimization to measure response grain, and apply this analysis framework to an example species: a medium-sized bird (Tockus deckeni) in a heterogeneous East African landscape. Based on home range analysis of movement data, we calculate an occupancy grain of 1 km for T. deckeni. Using a grain optimization procedure across 32 grains from 10 to 500 m, we identify 60 m as the most strongly supported response grain for a suite of environmental variables, slightly coarser than opportunistic behavioral observations would have suggested. Validation confirms that the accuracy of the optimized MG occupancy model substantially exceeds that of equivalent single-grain (SG) occupancy models. We further use a simulation approach to assess the potential impacts of accounting for the multi-scale structure of species' environmental requirements on estimates of population size. We find that the more strongly supported MG approach consistently predicts a minimum population size in the study landscape that is much lower than that provided by the SG model. This suggests that SG approaches commonly used in conservation applications could lead to overly optimistic abundance and population estimates, and that the MG approach may be more appropriate for supporting species conservation goals. More generally, we conclude that multi-grain approaches of the sort presented, and increasingly enabled by growing high-resolution remotely sensed data, hold great promise for offering a more mechanistic framework for assessing the appropriate grain(s) for population monitoring and management and enable more reliable estimates of abundances and species' distributions.

The Progressive Spread of the Vascular Wilt Like Pathogen of Calophyllum Detected in Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar

Pathogens are threatening crops worldwide, but little attention has been given to the threat to tree species in undisturbed rainforest. This communication reports the first case of a tree die off caused by a "wilt" in Madagascar. In 2016 while monitoring monthly tree phenology of Ranomafana National Park (RNP), the Centre ValBio research station observed that many Calophyllum adult trees had brown wilted leaves. There are three species of Calophyllum in this rainforest, C. paniculatum, C. drouhardii, and C. milvum, and all three have contracted this pathogen. Our goal was to document the spead of this suspected wilt in Calophyllum trees and determine if site, elevation and DBH had an influence on tree mortality. In 2019 we conducted an inventory of all Calophyllum trees in RNP and 42% of the observed trees were dead. The species with the highest mortality was C. paniculatum, with 53% of trees dead, followed by C. milvum with 18%, and C. drouhardii with only 2% of surveyed trees dead. Bark beetle traces were observed in all dead Calophyllum trees. Tree death caused by this suspected fungal pathogen has spread across a major river in the area and has been found at mid and high elevations. Our results show that C. paniculatum trees with a larger DBH have a higher mortality risk. Our report highlights the importance of fighting invasive pathogens that threaten protected ecosystems.

Vepris macrophylla (Baker) I. Verd Essential Oil: An Antifungal Agent against Phytopathogenic Fungi

Rutaceae are widely used in ethnomedicine to treat infectious diseases in humans and plants. In this study, the antifungal activity of the Vepris macrophylla leaf essential oil (VEO) and its main components, citral and citronellol, was evaluated against six phytopathogenic fungi. In addition, the possible action of VEO on the synthesis of mycotoxins was evaluated as well. To determine the antifungal activity of VEO we used the agar dilution method and VEO showed inhibitory activity against all the tested fungi. In particular, VEO resulted to be fungicidal against Phytophthora cryptogea and Fusarium avenaceum. For all other fungi VEO exhibited fungistatic activity and the weakest effect was observed on Alternaria solani. Citral was very effective against P. cryptogea, F. avenaceum, F. poae and F. graminearum. On the other hand, citronellol showed good activity towards P. cryptogea and F. avenaceum and weaker activity towards F. poae and F. graminearum. It can be concluded that VEO can be considered a promising antifungal agent, especially against P. cryptogea and F. avenaceum, suggesting a possible use in the formulation of new selective and natural fungicides.

Do functional traits offset the effects of fragmentation? The case of large-bodied diurnal lemur species

Primates worldwide are faced with increasing threats making them more vulnerable to extinction. Anthropogenic disturbances, such as habitat degradation and fragmentation, are among the main concerns, and in Madagascar, these issues have become widespread. As this situation continues to worsen, we sought to understand how fragmentation affects primate distribution throughout the island. Further, because species may exhibit different sensitivity to fragmentation, we also aimed to estimate the role of functional traits in mitigating their response. We collated data from 32 large-bodied lemur species ranges, consisting of species from the families Lemuridae (five genera) and Indriidae (two genera). We fitted Generalized Linear Models to determine the role of habitat fragmentation characteristics, for example, forest cover, patch size, edge density, and landscape configuration, as well as the protected area (PA) network, on the species relative probability of presence. We then assessed how the influence of functional traits (dietary guild, home range size) mitigate the response of species to these habitat metrics. Habitat area had a strong positive effect for many species, and there were significantly negative effects of fragmentation on the distribution of many lemur species. In addition, there was a positive influence of PAs on many lemur species' distribution. Functional trait classifications showed that lemurs of all dietary guilds are negatively affected by fragmentation; however, folivore-frugivores show greater flexibility/variability in terms of habitat area and landscape complexity compared to nearly exclusive folivores and frugivores. Furthermore, species of all home range sizes showed a negative response to fragmentation, while habitat area had an increasingly positive effect as home range increased in size. Overall, the general trends for the majority of lemur species are dire and point to the need for immediate actions on a multitude of fronts, most importantly landscape-level reforestation efforts.

Is the lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) likely to shortly become extinct in Europe?-Insights based on ecological niche modelling

Lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) is considered an endangered species in most countries within its geographical range. The main reason for the decline in the number of populations of this species in Europe is habitat destruction. In this paper the ecological niche modelling approach was used to estimate the effect of future climate change on the area of niches suitable for C. calceolus. Predictions of the extent of the potential range of this species in 2070 were made using climate projections obtained from the Community Climate System Model for four representative concentration pathways: rcp2.6, rcp4.5, rcp6.0 and rcp8.5. According to these analyses all the scenarios of future climate change will result in the total area of niches suitable for C. calceolus decreasing. Considering areas characterized by a suitability of at least 0.4 the loss of habitat will vary between ca. 30% and 63%. The highest habitat loss of ca. 63% is predicted to occur in scenario rcp 8.5. Surprisingly, in the most damaging rcp 8.5 prediction the highest overlap between potential range of C. calceolus and its pollinators will be observed and in all other scenarios some pollinators will be available for this species in various geographical regions. Based on these results at least two approaches should be implemented to improve the chances of survival of C. calceolus. In view of the unavoidable loss of suitable habitats in numerous European regions, conservation activities should be intensified in areas where this species will still have suitable niches in the next 50 years. In addition, for C. calceolus ex-situ activities should be greatly increased so that it can be re-introduced in the remaining suitable areas.