Drought in Africa caused delayed arrival of European songbirds

Synchronous timing of return to breeding sites in a long-distance migratory seabird with ocean-scale variation in migration schedules

BACKGROUND

Migratory birds generally have tightly scheduled annual cycles, in which delays can have carry-over effects on the timing of later events, ultimately impacting reproductive output. Whether temporal carry-over effects are more pronounced among migrations over larger distances, with tighter schedules, is a largely unexplored question.

METHODS

We tracked individual Arctic Skuas Stercorarius parasiticus, a long-distance migratory seabird, from eight breeding populations between Greenland and Siberia using light-level geolocators. We tested whether migration schedules among breeding populations differ as a function of their use of seven widely divergent wintering areas across the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean.

RESULTS

Breeding at higher latitudes led not only to later reproduction and migration, but also faster spring migration and shorter time between return to the breeding area and clutch initiation. Wintering area was consistent within individuals among years; and more distant areas were associated with more time spent on migration and less time in the wintering areas. Skuas adjusted the period spent in the wintering area, regardless of migration distance, which buffered the variation in timing of autumn migration. Choice of wintering area had only minor effects on timing of return at the breeding area and timing of breeding and these effects were not consistent between breeding populations.

CONCLUSION

The lack of a consistent effect of wintering area on timing of return between breeding areas indicates that individuals synchronize their arrival with others in their population despite extensive individual differences in migration strategies.

Decoupling of bird migration from the changing phenology of spring green-up

The green-up of vegetation in spring brings a pulse of food resources that many animals track during migration. However, green-up phenology is changing with climate change, posing an immense challenge for species that time their migrations to coincide with these resource pulses. We evaluated changes in green-up phenology from 2002 to 2021 in relation to the migrations of 150 Western-Hemisphere bird species using eBird citizen science data. We found that green-up phenology has changed within bird migration routes, and yet the migrations of most species align more closely with long-term averages of green-up than with current conditions. Changing green-up strongly influenced phenological mismatches, especially for longer-distance migrants. These results reveal that bird migration may have limited flexibility to adjust to changing vegetation phenology and emphasize the mounting challenge migratory animals face in following en route resources in a changing climate.

The role of tropical rainfall in driving range dynamics for a long-distance migratory bird

Predicting how the range dynamics of migratory species will respond to climate change requires a mechanistic understanding of the factors that operate across the annual cycle to control the distribution and abundance of a species. Here, we use multiple lines of evidence to reveal that environmental conditions during the nonbreeding season influence range dynamics across the life cycle of a migratory songbird, the American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). Using long-term data from the nonbreeding grounds and breeding origins estimated from stable hydrogen isotopes in tail feathers, we found that the relationship between annual survival and migration distance is mediated by precipitation, but only during dry years. A long-term drying trend throughout the Caribbean is associated with higher mortality for individuals from the northern portion of the species' breeding range, resulting in an approximate 500 km southward shift in breeding origins of this Jamaican population over the past 30 y. This shift in connectivity is mirrored by changes in the redstart's breeding distribution and abundance. These results demonstrate that the climatic effects on demographic processes originating during the tropical nonbreeding season are actively shaping range dynamics in a migratory bird.

Spring arrival of the common cuckoo at breeding grounds is strongly determined by environmental conditions in tropical Africa

Failure to adapt migration timing to changes in environmental conditions along migration routes and at breeding locations can result in mismatches across trophic levels, as occurs between the brood parasitic common cuckoo Cuculus canorus and its hosts. Using satellite tracking data from 87 male cuckoos across 11 years, we evaluate why the cuckoo has not advanced its arrival to the UK. Across years, breeding ground arrival was primarily determined by timing of departure from stopover in West Africa before northward crossing of the Sahara. Together with high population synchrony and low apparent endogenous control of this event, this suggests that a seasonal ecological constraint operating here limits overall variation in breeding grounds arrival, although this event was itself influenced by carry-over from timing of arrival into tropical Africa. Between-year variation within individuals was, in contrast, mostly determined by northward migration through Europe, probably due to weather conditions. We find evidence of increased mortality risk for (a) early birds following migration periods positively impacting breeding grounds arrival, and (b) late birds, possibly suffering energy limitation, after departure from the breeding grounds. These results help identify areas where demands of responding to global change can potentially be alleviated by improving stopover quality.

Migratory birds with delayed spring departure migrate faster but pay the costs

Migratory birds that experience poor overwintering conditions are often late to arrive at the breeding grounds, which is known to depress individual fitness. Despite the importance of this carryover effect, few studies have investigated how individuals can modify migratory behaviors en route to reduce delays on arrival and whether accelerating migration incurs survival costs. To examine this, we used Motus Wildlife Tracking System to track individual American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) as they migrated from wintering grounds in Southwest Jamaica through Florida en route to their breeding areas. We leveraged long-term data on spring departure timing and breeding latitude to quantify the relative departure dates (early vs. delayed) of tagged individuals, which we then related to individual migration rates and apparent annual survival. Compared to those initiating migration earlier, individuals that departed relatively late (10-day delay) migrated at a 43% faster rate, which decreased their annual survival by 6.3%. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that spring migrants use speed to compensate for departure delays despite incurring survival costs. This compensatory behavior may potentially underly differential survival during spring migration and may be particularly widespread across short-lived migratory birds generally considered time-constrained.

Activity patterns throughout the annual cycle in a long-distance migratory songbird, the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio

BACKGROUND

Long-distance migratory birds undergo complex annual cycles during which they must adjust their behaviour according to the needs and conditions encountered throughout the year. Yet, variation in activity throughout the entire annual cycle has rarely been studied in wild migratory birds.

METHODS

We used multisensor data loggers to evaluate the patterns of activity throughout the complete annual cycle of a long-distance migratory bird, the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio. Accelerometer data was used to identify life-history stages and to estimate levels of activity during various phases of the annual cycle. In this study, we analysed the variation in daytime activity along the annual cycle and between migratory and non-migratory days.

RESULTS

The birds' daytime activity varied throughout the annual cycle while night-time activity was almost exclusively restricted to migratory flights. The highest daytime activity levels were observed during the breeding season, while it remained low during autumn migration and the winter period. Daytime activity differed between sexes during the breeding period, when the males showed the highest level in activity. During migratory periods, both sexes exhibited a higher daytime activity in spring compared to autumn migration, being particularly high in the final migratory leg towards the breeding ground. The birds showed a lower daytime activity on migratory days (days when a migratory flight took place during the succeeding night) than on non-migratory days during both migratory seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

Activity measured during daytime results from a combination of several behaviours, and a high daytime activity during spring migration and the breeding period is possibly reflecting particularly energy-demanding periods in the annual cycle of migratory birds. The use of multisensor data loggers to track annual activity provides us with a full annual perspective on variation in activity in long-distance migratory species, an essential approach for understanding possible critical life-history stages and migration ecology.

Across the deserts and sea: inter-individual variation in migration routes of south-central European barn swallows (Hirundo rustica)

BACKGROUND

The spatiotemporal organization of migratory routes of long-distance migrants results from trade-offs between minimizing the journey length and en route risk of migration-related mortality, which may be reduced by avoiding crossing inhospitable ecological barriers. Despite flourishing avian migration research in recent decades, little is still known about inter-individual variability in migratory routes, as well as the carry-over effects of spatial and temporal features of migration on subsequent migration stages.

METHODS

We reconstructed post- and pre-breeding migration routes, barrier crossing behaviour and non-breeding movements of the largest sample (N = 85) analysed to date of individual barn swallows breeding in south-central Europe, which were tracked using light-level geolocators.

RESULTS

Most birds spent their non-breeding period in the Congo basin in a single stationary area, but a small fraction of itinerant individuals reaching South Africa was also observed. Birds generally followed a 'clockwise loop migration pattern', moving through the central Mediterranean and the Sahara Desert during post-breeding (north to south) migration yet switching to a more western route, along the Atlantic coast of Africa, Iberia and western Mediterranean during the pre-breeding (south to north) migration. Southward migration was straighter and less variable, while northward migration was significantly faster despite the broader detour along the Atlantic coast and Iberia. These patterns showed limited sex-related variability. The timing of different circannual events was tightly linked with previous migration stages, considerably affecting migration route and speed of subsequent movements. Indeed, individuals departing late from Africa performed straighter and faster pre-breeding migrations, partly compensating for the initial departure delays, but likely at the cost of performing riskier movements across ecological barriers.

CONCLUSIONS

Different spatiotemporal migration strategies during post- and pre-breeding migration suggest that conditions en route may differ seasonally and allow for more efficient travelling along different migration corridors in either season. While highlighting patterns of inter-individual variability, our results support increasing evidence for widespread loop migration patterns among Afro-Palearctic avian migrants. Also, they suggest that carry-over effects acting across different phases of the annual cycle of migratory species can have major impacts on evolutionary processes.

Large-Scale Climatic Patterns Have Stronger Carry-Over Effects than Local Temperatures on Spring Phenology of Long-Distance Passerine Migrants between Europe and Africa

Simple Summary

Spring in Europe has been trending earlier for almost half a century. Long-distance migrant birds, such as the Willow Warbler and Pied Flycatcher, which breed in Europe, have arrived earlier too. It is broadly accepted that warming springs in temperate regions explain the earlier arrival of migrants. However, migration started weeks earlier and thousands of kilometres away. There must be additional cues elsewhere triggering migration. Meteorologists have developed measures of atmospheric circulation which are related to climate variability in wide regions. One of them is the Southern Oscillation Index, which reflects El Niño/La Niña that cause droughts and floods in the southern hemisphere. Other atmospheric circulation patterns, measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole, help predict total rainfall for a whole season in various parts of Africa and Europe. Good rains are associated with plant growth and with insect abundance. Insects provide food for most of these migrants. Therefore, this paper asks the question: “Is the timing of arrival of long-distance migrants in spring related to the climates they experience in the places where they are over the year prior to arrival in Europe?” This paper says the answer is “Yes”.

Abstract

Earlier springs in temperate regions since the 1980s, attributed to climate change, are thought to influence the earlier arrival of long-distance migrant passerines. However, this migration was initiated weeks earlier in Africa, where the Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation drive climatic variability, and may additionally influence the migrants. Multiple regressions investigated whether 15 indices of climate in Africa and Europe explained the variability in timing of arrival for seven trans-Saharan migrants. Our response variable was Annual Anomaly (AA), derived from standardized mistnetting from 1982–2021 at Bukowo, Polish Baltic Sea. For each species, the best models explained a considerable part of the annual variation in the timing of spring’s arrival by two to seven climate variables. For five species, the models included variables related to temperature or precipitation in the Sahel. Similarly, the models included variables related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (for four species), Indian Ocean Dipole (three), and Southern Oscillation (three). All included the Scandinavian Pattern in the previous summer. Our conclusion is that climate variables operating on long-distance migrants in the areas where they are present in the preceding year drive the phenological variation of spring migration. These results have implications for our understanding of carry-over effects.

Modeling Complex Seasonal Avian Migration: Predictions From the Thermal Environment and Resource Availability

Billions of birds undertake long-distance migration and the complexity of schedules has only recently become clear. Such movements occur as a response to seasonality but the ultimate drivers of these changing distributions remain difficult to study directly. Modeling seasonal distributions based fundamentally on climate and vegetation without parameterizing with empirical data, we focus on the potential role of ambient temperature and available resources in shaping the migratory program. We simulate the complete annual cycle over the Afro-Palearctic region in a round-trip migration model allowing full variation in the extent and timing of movement, and multiple stopovers. The resultant simulated tracks and associated environmental metrics are interrogated: we evaluate the thermal and resource consequences of staying in Europe versus crossing the Sahara, and secondly identify the movement patterns optimizing exposure to green vegetation and local surpluses. There is a distinct thermal gain from crossing the Sahara and the pattern emerging of optimal seasonal vegetation resembles contemporary migration routes regarding Sahara crossing, loop structure and itinerancy. Thus, our first-principle simulations suggest that variations in migration patterns among species are caused by a complex trade-off between risks and rewards of staying versus moving, including innate physiological constraints and the resultant gain of the high-risk Sahara crossing.

Short- and long-distance avian migrants differ in exercise endurance but not aerobic capacity

Background

Migratory birds differ markedly in their migration strategies, particularly those performing short- versus long-distance migrations. In preparation for migration, all birds undergo physiological and morphological modifications including enlargement of fat stores and pectoral muscles to fuel and power their flights, as well as cardiovascular and biochemical adjustments that improve lipid and oxygen delivery and uptake by flight muscles. While the magnitude of these changes varies in relation to migration strategy, the consequence of these variations on aerobic performance is unknown. We tested whether the aerobic performance of four Old-world flycatcher species (Muscicapidae) varied according to migration strategy by comparing minimum resting metabolic rates (RMRmin), exercise-induced maximum metabolic rates (MMR), and exercise endurance times of short-distance and long-distance migratory birds.

Results

As expected, RMRmin did not vary between short-distance and long-distance migrants but differed between the species within a migration strategy and between sexes. Unexpectedly, MMR did not vary with migration strategy, but MMR and blood haemoglobin content were positively related among the birds tested. Exercise endurance times differed substantially between migration strategies with long-distance migrants sustaining exercise for > 60% longer than short-distance migrants. Blood haemoglobin content had a significant positive effect on endurance among all birds examined.

Conclusions

The lack of difference in RMRmin and MMR between long- and short-distance migrants during this stage of migration suggests that the attributes favouring the greater aerobic endurance of long-distance migrants did not come at the expense of increased maintenance costs or require greater aerobic capacity.

Time to Move On: The Role of Greenness in Africa and Temperatures at a Mediterranean Stopover Site in Migration Decision of Long-Distance Migratory Passerines

Many migratory species have advanced their migration timing as a response to advanced breeding conditions. While data on arrival timing to breeding grounds in Europe is plentiful, information from the African departure sites are scarce. Here we investigated changes in arrival timing of four long-distance migratory passerines to a stopover site in Israel and potential links to Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) at the species-specific African pre-departure sites and local temperatures at the stopover site. We found that Lesser whitethroat (Curruca curruca) and Eastern Bonelli’s warbler (Phylloscopus orientalis) advanced arrival to the stopover site. The arrival timing of Thrush nightingale (Luscinia luscinia) and Olive-tree warbler (Hippolais olivetorum) did not change and was associated with mean EVI at the pre-departure site in Africa during the pre-migratory period. Additionally, temperatures at the stopover site affected the arrival timing of Lesser whitethroat only. This is probably because this species breed at higher northern latitudes and fine-tune their migration timing to match local conditions. Our results show that spring migration can be influenced by exogenous cues such as weather condition and food availability, and the level of response is species-specific. Moreover, some species show flexibility and fine-tuned migration speed in response to local conditions en route. While flexibility seems advantageous, dependence on multiple sites with varying conditions may ultimately limit advanced arrival to the breeding ground and result in mismatch with optimal conditions.

Climate in Africa sequentially shapes spring passage of Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus across the Baltic coast

BACKGROUND

Many migrant birds have been returning to Europe earlier in spring since the 1980s. This has been attributed mostly to an earlier onset of spring in Europe, but we found the timing of Willow Warblers' passage to be influenced by climate indices for Africa as much as those for Europe. Willow Warblers' spring passage through northern Europe involves populations from different wintering quarters in Africa. We therefore expected that migration timing in the early, middle and late periods of spring would be influenced sequentially by climate indices operating in different parts of the winter range.

METHODS

Using data from daily mistnetting in 1 April-15 May over 1982-2017 at Bukowo (Poland, Baltic Sea coast), we derived an Annual Anomaly (AA, in days) of Willow Warbler spring migration. We decomposed this anomaly into three main periods (1-26 April, 27 April-5 May, 6-15 May); one-third of migrants in each period. We modelled three sequential time series of spring passage using calendar year and 15 large-scale climate indices averaged over the months of Willow Warblers' life stages in the year preceding spring migration as explanatory variables in multiple regression models. Nine climate variables were selected in the best models. We used these nine explanatory variables and calculated their partial correlations in models for nine overlapping sub-periods of AA. The pattern of relationships between AA in these nine sub-periods of spring and the nine climate variables indicated how spring passage had responded to the climate. We recommend this method for the study of birds' phenological responses to climate change.

RESULTS

The Southern Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole in Aug-Oct showed large partial correlations early in the passage, then faded in importance. For the Sahel Precipitation Index (PSAH) and Sahel Temperature Anomaly (TSAH) in Aug-Oct partial correlations occurred early then peaked in mid-passage; for PSAH (Nov-March) correlations peaked at the end of passage. NAO and local temperatures (April-May) showed low correlations till late April, which then increased. For the Scandinavian Index (Jun-Jul) partial correlations peaked in mid-passage. Year was not selected in any of the best models, indicating that the climate variables alone accounted for Willow Warblers' multiyear trend towards an earlier spring passage.

DISCUSSION

Climate indices for southern and eastern Africa dominated relationships in early spring, but western African indices dominated in mid- and late spring. We thus concluded that Willow Warblers wintering in southern and eastern Africa dominated early arrivals, but those from western Africa dominated later. We suggest that drivers of phenological shifts in avian migration are related to changes in climate at remote wintering grounds and at stopovers, operating with climate change in the north, especially for species with complex and long-distance migration patterns.

Warm and arid regions of the world are hotspots of superorganism complexity

Biologists have long been fascinated by the processes that give rise to phenotypic complexity of organisms, yet whether there exist geographical hotspots of phenotypic complexity remains poorly explored. Phenotypic complexity can be readily observed in ant colonies, which are superorganisms with morphologically differentiated queen and worker castes analogous to the germline and soma of multicellular organisms. Several ant species have evolved 'worker polymorphism', where workers in a single colony show quantifiable differences in size and head-to-body scaling. Here, we use 256 754 occurrence points from 8990 ant species to investigate the geography of worker polymorphism. We show that arid regions of the world are the hotspots of superorganism complexity. Tropical savannahs and deserts, which are typically species-poor relative to tropical or even temperate forests, harbour the highest densities of polymorphic ants. We discuss the possible adaptive advantages that worker polymorphism provides in arid environments. Our work may provide a window into the environmental conditions that promote the emergence of highly complex phenotypes.

Understanding the ecological and evolutionary function of stopover in migrating birds

Global movement patterns of migratory birds illustrate their fascinating physical and physiological abilities to cross continents and oceans. During their voyages, most birds land multiple times to make so-called 'stopovers'. Our current knowledge on the functions of stopover is mainly based on the proximate study of departure decisions. However, such studies are insufficient to gauge fully the ecological and evolutionary functions of stopover. If we study how a focal trait, e.g. changes in energy stores, affects the decision to depart from a stopover without considering the trait(s) that actually caused the bird to land, e.g. unfavourable environmental conditions for flight, we misinterpret the function of the stopover. It is thus important to realise and acknowledge that stopovers have many different functions, and that not every migrant has the same (set of) reasons to stop-over. Additionally, we may obtain contradictory results because the significance of different traits to a migrant is context dependent. For instance, late spring migrants may be more prone to risk-taking and depart from a stopover with lower energy stores than early spring migrants. Thus, we neglect that departure decisions are subject to selection to minimise immediate (mortality risk) and/or delayed (low future reproductive output) fitness costs. To alleviate these issues, we first define stopover as an interruption of migratory endurance flight to minimise immediate and/or delayed fitness costs. Second, we review all probable functions of stopover, which include accumulating energy, various forms of physiological recovery and avoiding adverse environmental conditions for flight, and list potential other functions that are less well studied, such as minimising predation, recovery from physical exhaustion and spatiotemporal adjustments to migration. Third, derived from these aspects, we argue for a paradigm shift in stopover ecology research. This includes focusing on why an individual interrupts its migratory flight, which is more likely to identify the individual-specific function(s) of the stopover correctly than departure-decision studies. Moreover, we highlight that the selective forces acting on stopover decisions are context dependent and are expected to differ between, e.g. K-/r-selected species, the sexes and migration strategies. For example, all else being equal, r-selected species (low survival rate, high reproductive rate) should have a stronger urge to continue the migratory endurance flight or resume migration from a stopover because the potential increase in immediate fitness costs suffered from a flight is offset by the expected higher reproductive success in the subsequent breeding season. Finally, we propose to focus less on proximate mechanisms controlling landing and departure decisions, and more on ultimate mechanisms to identify the selective forces shaping stopover decisions. Our ideas are not limited to birds but can be applied to any migratory species. Our revised definition of stopover and the proposed paradigm shift has the potential to stimulate a fruitful discussion towards a better evolutionary ecological understanding of the functions of stopover. Furthermore, identifying the functions of stopover will support targeted measures to conserve and restore the functionality of stopover sites threatened by anthropogenic environmental changes. This is especially important for long-distance migrants, which currently are in alarming decline.

Linking migratory performance to breeding phenology and productivity in an Afro-Palearctic long-distance migrant

Understanding the relationship between migratory performance and fitness is crucial for predicting population dynamics of migratory species. In this study, we used geolocators to explore migration performance (speed and duration of migratory movements, migratory timings) and its association with breeding phenology and productivity in an Afro-Palearctic insectivore, the European bee-eater (Merops apiaster), breeding in Iberian Peninsula. Bee-eaters migrated at higher travel speeds and had shorter travel duration in spring compared to autumn. Individuals that departed earlier or spent fewer days in-flight arrived earlier to the breeding areas. Our results show overall positive, but year-specific, linkages between arrival and laying dates. In one year, laying was earlier and productivity was higher, remaining constant throughout the season, while in the subsequent year productivity was lower and, importantly, declined with laying date. These results suggest that arriving earlier can be advantageous for bee-eaters, as in years when breeding conditions are favourable, early and late breeders produce high and similar number of fledglings, but when conditions are unfavourable only early breeders experience high productivity levels.

Drought at a coastal wetland affects refuelling and migration strategies of shorebirds

Droughts can affect invertebrate communities in wetlands, which can have bottom-up effects on the condition and survival of top predators. Shorebirds, key predators at coastal wetlands, have experienced widespread population declines and could be negatively affected by droughts. We explored, in detail, the effects of drought on multiple aspects of shorebird stopover and migration ecology by contrasting a year with average wet/dry conditions (2016) with a year with moderate drought (2017) at a major subarctic stopover site on southbound migration. We also examined the effects of drought on shorebird body mass during stopover across 14 years (historical: 1974–1982 and present-day: 2014–2018). For the detailed comparison of two years, in the year with moderate drought we documented lower invertebrate abundance at some sites, higher prey family richness in shorebird faecal samples, lower shorebird refuelling rates, shorter stopover durations for juveniles, and, for most species, a higher probability of making a subsequent stopover in North America after departing the subarctic, compared to the year with average wet/dry conditions. In the 14-year dataset, shorebird body mass tended to be lower in drier years. We show that even short-term, moderate drought conditions can negatively affect shorebird refuelling performance at coastal wetlands, which may carry-over to affect subsequent stopover decisions. Given shorebird population declines and predicted changes in the severity and duration of droughts with climate change, researchers should prioritize a better understanding of how droughts affect shorebird refuelling performance and survival.

Adaptive drift and barrier-avoidance by a fly-forage migrant along a climate-driven flyway

BACKGROUND

Route choice and travel performance of fly-forage migrants are partly driven by large-scale habitat availability, but it remains unclear to what extent wind support through large-scale wind regimes moulds their migratory behaviour. We aimed to determine to what extent a trans-equatorial fly-forage migrant engages in adaptive drift through distinct wind regimes and biomes across Africa. The Inter-tropical Front (ITF) marks a strong and seasonally shifting climatic boundary at the thermal equator, and we assessed whether migratory detours were associated with this climatic feature. Furthermore, we sought to disentangle the influence of wind and biome on daily, regional and seasonal travel performance.

METHODS

We GPS-tracked 19 adult Eleonora's falcons Falco eleonorae from the westernmost population on the Canary Islands across 39 autumn and 36 spring migrations to and from Madagascar. Tracks were annotated with wind data to assess the falcons' orientation behaviour and the wind support they achieved in each season and distinct biomes. We further tested whether falcon routes across the Sahel were correlated with the ITF position, and how realized wind support and biome affect daily travel times, distances and speeds.

RESULTS

Changes in orientation behaviour across Africa's biomes were associated with changes in prevailing wind fields. Falcons realized higher wind support along their detours than was available along the shortest possible route by drifting through adverse autumn wind fields, but compromised wind support while detouring through supportive spring wind fields. Movements across the Sahel-Sudan zone were strongly associated to the ITF position in autumn, but were more individually variable in spring. Realized wind support was an important driver of daily travel speeds and distances, in conjunction with regional wind-independent variation in daily travel time budgets.

CONCLUSIONS

Although daily travel time budgets of falcons vary independently from wind, their daily travel performance is strongly affected by orientation-dependent wind support. Falcons thereby tend to drift to minimize or avoid headwinds through opposing wind fields and over ecological barriers, while compensating through weak or supportive wind fields and over hospitable biomes. The ITF may offer a climatic leading line to fly-forage migrants in terms of both flight and foraging conditions.

Limited flexibility in departure timing of migratory passerines at the East-Mediterranean flyway

The rapid pace of current global warming lead to the advancement of spring migration in the majority of long-distance migratory bird species. While data on arrival timing to breeding grounds in Europe is plentiful, information from the African departure sites are scarce. Here we analysed changes in arrival timing at a stopover site in Israel and any links to Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) on the species-specific African non-breeding range in three migratory passerines between 2000-2017. Differences in wing length between early and late arriving individuals were also examined as a proxy for migration distance. We found that male redstart, but not females, advanced arrival to stopover site, but interestingly, not as a response to EVI phenology. Blackcap and barred warbler did not shift arrival timing significantly, although the arrival of blackcap was dependent on EVI. Barred warbler from the early arrival phase had longer wings, suggesting different populations. Our study further supports the existence species-specific migration decisions and inter-sexual differences, which may be triggered by both exogenous (local vegetation condition) and endogenous cues. Given rapid rate of changes in environmental conditions at higher latitudes, some migrants may experience difficulty in the race to match global changes to ensure their survival.

Integrating Causal and Evolutionary Analysis of Life-History Evolution: Arrival Date in a Long-Distant Migrant

In migratory species, the timing of arrival at the breeding grounds is a life-history trait with major fitness consequences. The optimal arrival date varies from year-to-year, and animals use cues to adjust their arrival dates to match this annual variation. However, which cues they use to time their arrival and whether these cues actually predict the annual optimal arrival date is largely unknown. Here, we integrate causal and evolutionary analysis by identifying the environmental variables used by a migratory songbird to time its arrival dates and testing whether these environmental variables also predicted the optimal time to arrive. We used 11 years of male arrival data of a pied flycatcher population. Specifically, we tested whether temperature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values from their breeding grounds in the Netherlands and from their wintering grounds in Ivory Coast explained the variation in arrival date, and whether these variables correlated with the position of the annual fitness peak at the breeding grounds. We found that temperature and NDVI, both from the wintering and the breeding grounds, explained the annual variation in arrival date, but did not correlate with the optimal arrival date. We explore three alternative explanations for this lack of correlation. Firstly, the date of the fitness peak may have been incorrectly estimated because a potentially important component of fitness (i.e., migration date dependent mortality en route or directly upon arrival) could not be measured. Secondly, we focused on male timing but the fitness landscape is also likely to be shaped by female timing. Finally, the correlation has recently disappeared because climate change disrupted the predictive value of the cues that the birds use to time their migration. In the latter case, birds may adapt by altering their sensitivity to temperature and NDVI.

Identifying the paths of climate effects on population dynamics: dynamic and multilevel structural equation model around the annual cycle

How environmental factors influence population dynamics in long-distance migrants is complicated by the spatiotemporal diversity of the environment the individuals experience during the annual cycle. The effects of weather on several different aspects of life history have been well studied, but a better understanding is needed on how weather affects population dynamics through the different associated traits. We utilise 77 years of data from pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), to identify the most relevant climate signals associated with population growth rate. The strongest signals on population growth were observed from climate during periods when the birds were not present in the focal location. The population decline was associated with increasing precipitation in the African non-breeding quarters in the autumn (near the arrival of migrants) and with increasing winter temperature along the migration route (before migration). The number of fledglings was associated positively with increasing winter temperature in non-breeding area and negatively with increasing winter temperature in Europe. These possible carry-over effects did not arise via timing of breeding or clutch size but the exact mechanism remains to be revealed in future studies. High population density and low fledgling production were the intrinsic factors reducing the breeding population. We conclude that weather during all seasons has the potential to affect the reproductive success or population growth rate of this species. Our results show how weather can influence the population dynamics of a migratory species through multiple pathways, even at times of the annual cycle when the birds are in a different location than the climate signal.

The influence of climate variability on demographic rates of avian Afro-palearctic migrants

Climate is an important driver of changes in animal population size, but its effect on the underlying demographic rates remains insufficiently understood. This is particularly true for avian long-distance migrants which are exposed to different climatic factors at different phases of their annual cycle. To fill this knowledge gap, we used data collected by a national-wide bird ringing scheme for eight migratory species wintering in sub-Saharan Africa and investigated the impact of climate variability on their breeding productivity and adult survival. While temperature at the breeding grounds could relate to the breeding productivity either positively (higher food availability in warmer springs) or negatively (food scarcity in warmer springs due to trophic mismatch), water availability at the non-breeding should limit the adult survival and the breeding productivity. Consistent with the prediction of the trophic mismatch hypothesis, we found that warmer springs at the breeding grounds were linked with lower breeding productivity, explaining 29% of temporal variance across all species. Higher water availability at the sub-Saharan non-breeding grounds was related to higher adult survival (18% temporal variance explained) but did not carry-over to breeding productivity. Our results show that climate variability at both breeding and non-breeding grounds shapes different demographic rates of long-distance migrants.

Temperature change is an important departure cue in nocturnal migrants: controlled experiments with wild-caught birds in a proof-of-concept study

The decision-making process of migrating birds at stopover sites is a complex interplay of the innate migration program and both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. While it is well studied how variation in precipitation, wind and air pressure influence this process, there is less evidence of the effects of temperature changes on the departure decision. Thus, we lack knowledge on how the predicted changes due to global climate change in temperature alone may affect the decision-making process during migration. Aiming to fill parts of this gap, we conducted a proof-of-concept study by manipulating the ambient temperature of temporarily confined wild-caught migrant songbirds under constant feeding conditions. In spring, departure probability increased with a 20°C rise in temperature for both a medium-distance migrant (European robin, Erithacus rubecula) and a long-distance migrant (northern wheatear, Oenanthe oenanthe), and in autumn, departure probabilities of the long-distance migrant both decreased with a 20°C rise and increased with a 20°C drop. Consequently, the temperature is an important departure cue influencing the decision-making process of migrating songbirds. Incorporating causal relationships between changes in temperature and departure probability in migration models could substantially improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on the phenology of migratory birds.

Weather at the winter and stopover areas determines spring migration onset, progress, and advancements in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds

Climate change causes changes in the timing of life cycle events across all trophic groups. Spring phenology has mostly advanced, but large, unexplained, variations are present between and within species. Each spring, migratory birds travel tens to tens of thousands of kilometers from their wintering to their breeding grounds. For most populations, large uncertainties remain on their exact locations outside the breeding area, and the time spent there or during migration. Assessing climate (change) effects on avian migration phenology has consequently been difficult due to spatial and temporal uncertainties in the weather potentially affecting migration timing. Here, we show for six trans-Saharan long-distance migrants that weather at the wintering and stopover grounds almost entirely (∼80%) explains interannual variation in spring migration phenology. Importantly, our spatiotemporal approach also allows for the systematic exclusion of influences at other locations and times. While increased spring temperatures did contribute strongly to the observed spring migration advancements over the 55-y study period, improvements in wind conditions, especially in the Maghreb and Mediterranean, have allowed even stronger advancements. Flexibility in spring migration timing of long-distance migrants to exogenous factors has been consistently underestimated due to mismatches in space, scale, time, and weather variable type.

Survival varies seasonally in a migratory bird: Linkages between breeding and non-breeding periods

Migratory species form an important component of biodiversity; they link ecosystems across the globe, but are increasingly threatened by global environmental change. Understanding and mitigating threats requires knowledge of how demographic processes operate throughout the annual cycle, but this can be difficult to achieve when breeding and non-breeding grounds are widely separated. Our goal is to quantify the importance of variability in survival during the breeding and non-breeding seasons in determining variation in annual survival using a single population and, more broadly, the extent to which annual survival across species reflects variation in probability of surviving the migratory period. We use a 25-year dataset in which individuals of a long-distance migratory bird, the alpine swift Tachymarptis melba, were captured towards the beginning and end of each breeding season to estimate age- and season-specific survival probabilities and incorporate explicit estimation of the correlations in survival between age-classes and seasons. Monthly survival was higher during the breeding period than during the rest of the year and strongly affected by conditions in the breeding season; effects that remained apparent in the following non-breeding season, but not subsequently. Recruitment of juveniles was dependent on the timing of breeding, being higher if egg-laying commenced before the median date, and substantially lower if not. Across migratory bird species, variation in annual survival largely reflects variation in the probability of surviving the migratory period. Using a double-capture approach, even within a single season, provides valuable insights into the demography of migratory species, which will help understand the extent and impacts of the threats they face in a changing world.

Climatic variation in Africa and Europe has combined effects on timing of spring migration in a long-distance migrant Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus

Background

The arrival of many species of migrant passerine in the European spring has shifted earlier over recent decades, attributed to climate change and rising temperatures in Europe and west Africa. Few studies have shown the effects of climate change in both hemispheres though many long-distance migrants use wintering grounds which span Africa. The migrants’ arrival in Europe thus potentially reflects a combination of the conditions they experience across Africa. We examine if the timing of spring migration of a long-distance migrant, the Willow Warbler, is related to large-scale climate indices across Africa and Europe.

Methods

Using data from daily mistnetting from 1 April to 15 May in 1982–2017 at Bukowo (Poland, Baltic Sea coast), we developed an Annual Anomaly metric (AA, in days) to estimate how early or late Willow Warblers arrive each spring in relation to their multi-year average pattern. The Willow Warblers’ spring passage advanced by 5.4 days over the 36 years. We modelled AA using 14 potential explanatory variables in multiple regression models. The variables were the calendar year and 13 large-scale indices of climate in Africa and Europe averaged over biologically meaningful periods of two to four months during the year before spring migration.

Results

The best model explained 59% of the variation in AA with seven variables: Northern Atlantic Oscillation (two periods), Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Oscillation Index, Sahel Precipitation Anomaly, Scandinavian Index and local mean temperatures. The study also confirmed that a long-term trend for Willow Warblers to arrive earlier in spring continued up to 2017.

Discussion

Our results suggest that the timing of Willow Warbler spring migration at the Baltic Sea coast is related to a summation of the ecological conditions they had encountered over the previous year during breeding, migration south, wintering in Africa and migration north. We suggest these large-scale climate indices reflect ecological drivers for phenological changes in species with complex migration patterns and discuss the ways in which each of the seven climate indices could be related to spring migration at the Baltic Sea coast.

Climatic correlates of migrant Natal long-fingered bat (Miniopterus natalensis) phenology in north-eastern South Africa

Abstract ContextFor migratory animals, particularly those with long generation times, changing weather patterns may cause a mismatch between periods of expected and actual resource availability, termed phenological mismatch. The cave-dwelling Natal long-fingered bat (Miniopterus natalensis) is a regional migrant within South Africa for which the (hitherto unknown) phenology of migration may be affected by climate. AimsTo investigate the migration phenology of the Natal long-fingered bat in relation to climate at a maternity cave in South Africa. MethodsFive years (2014–18) of echolocation data from a maternity cave site in Limpopo, South Africa, were studied. Separate stepwise General Linear Models (GLMs) were constructed for each season using photoperiod, minimum temperature, dew point, rainfall, barometric pressure, humidity and maximum wind speed. Arrival and departure dates among years were also compared. Key resultsPhotoperiod had the greatest effect on the magnitude of Natal long-fingered bat phenological patterns in activity across all seasons. Although spring (September - November) arrival at the maternity site was variable across years, summer departure dates did not differ, resulting in a shorter breeding period in the 2017–18 sample year. During the 2016–17 sample year, the magnitude of Natal long-fingered bat activity was significantly lower than in other years, which coincided with El Niño-induced drought conditions and likely impacted resources and led to a reduction in activity and population size. ConclusionsPhotoperiod is a strong predictive cue of the phenology of migration of the Natal long-fingered bat and likely cues migration for this species. The narrow departure dates of these bats from the maternity site supports these results. ImplicationsThe present study indicates that Natal long-fingered bats use photoperiod as a migration cue and do not appear to shift their spring–summer breeding season, likely making them vulnerable to phenological mismatch and population decline. The research highlights the need for systematic population monitoring for the Natal long-fingered bat.

Recent phenological shifts of migratory birds at a Mediterranean spring stopover site: Species wintering in the Sahel advance passage more than tropical winterers

Spring migration phenology is shifting towards earlier dates as a response to climate change in many bird species. However, the patterns of change might not be the same for all species, populations, sex and age classes. In particular, patterns of change could differ between species with different ecology. We analyzed 18 years of standardized bird capture data at a spring stopover site on the island of Ponza, Italy, to determine species-specific rates of phenological change for 30 species following the crossing of the Mediterranean Sea. The advancement of spring passage was more pronounced in species wintering in Northern Africa (i.e. short-distance migrants) and in the Sahel zone. Only males from species wintering further South in the forests of central Africa advanced their passage, with no effect on the overall peak date of passage of the species. The migration window on Ponza broadened in many species, suggesting that early migrants within a species are advancing their migration more than late migrants. These data suggest that the cues available to the birds to adjust departure might be changing at different rates depending on wintering location and habitat, or that early migrants of different species might be responding differently to changing conditions along the route. However, more data on departure time from the wintering areas are required to understand the mechanisms underlying such phenological changes.

Stopover departure decisions in songbirds: do long-distance migrants depart earlier and more independently of weather conditions than medium-distance migrants?

BACKGROUND

Songbirds following distinct migration strategies (e.g. long- vs. short- to medium-distance migrants) often differ in their speed of migration during autumn and, thus, are assumed to face different time constraints. During migration, most songbird species alternate migratory flights with stopover periods. Many of them restrict these migratory flights to the night, i.e., they are nocturnal migrants. At stopover, nocturnal migrants need to select a specific night (night-to-night decision) and time of night (within-night decision) to resume migration. These departure decisions, which largely determine the speed of migration, are jointly affected by a set of intrinsic and extrinsic factors, i.e., departure cues. Here we aim to assess whether the set of intrinsic and extrinsic factors and the magnitude of their respective effects on stopover departure decisions differs between nocturnally migrating songbird species, depending on their migration strategy and associated time constraints.

METHODS

We radio-tracked migrating Northern Wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe; long-distance migrant), European robins (Erithacus rubecula) and Common Blackbirds (Turdus merula; both medium-distance migrants) during autumn stopover and analysed their night-to-night and within-night departure timing in relation to intrinsic and extrinsic factors.

RESULTS

Species generally differed in their departure timing on both temporal scales, with shortest stopovers and earliest nocturnal departures in the long-distance migrant. Some factors, such as day of year, fuel load, cloud cover and crosswind, had consistent effects on stopover departure decisions in all three species. However, species differed in the effects of tailwind assistance, change in atmospheric pressure and air temperature on their stopover departure decisions. Whereas night-to-night decisions were affected by these extrinsic factors in either both or one of the medium-distance migrants, such effects were not found in the long-distance migrant.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the general timing of departures in songbirds is affected by the species-specific migration strategy and associated time constraints. Further, they imply that the assessment and usage of specific extrinsic factors, i.e., weather conditions, as departure cues is adjusted based on this migration strategy, with the long-distance migrants being least selective at departure. Other intrinsic and extrinsic factors, however, seem to be used as departure cues independent of migration strategy.

Wind-associated detours promote seasonal migratory connectivity in a flapping flying long-distance avian migrant

It is essential to gain knowledge about the causes and extent of migratory connectivity between stationary periods of migrants to further the understanding of processes affecting populations, and to allow efficient implementation of conservation efforts throughout the annual cycle. Avian migrants likely use optimal routes with respect to mode of locomotion, orientation and migration strategy, influenced by external factors such as wind and topography. In self-powered flapping flying birds, any increases in fuel loads are associated with added flight costs. Energy-minimizing migrants are therefore predicted to trade-off extended detours against reduced travel across ecological barriers with no or limited foraging opportunities. Here, we quantify the extent of detours taken by different populations of European nightjars Caprimulgus europaeus, to test our predictions that they used routes beneficial according to energetic principles and evaluate the effect of route shape on seasonal migratory connectivity. We combined data on birds tracked from breeding sites along a longitudinal gradient from England to Sweden. We analysed the migratory connectivity between breeding and main non-breeding sites, and en route stopover sites just south of the Sahara desert. We quantified each track's route extension relative to the direct route between breeding and wintering sites, respectively, and contrasted it to the potential detour derived from the barrier reduction along the track while accounting for potential wind effects. Nightjars extended their tracks from the direct route between breeding and main non-breeding sites as they crossed the Mediterranean Sea-Sahara desert, the major ecological barrier in the Palaearctic-African migration system. These clockwise detours were small for birds from eastern sites but increased from east to west breeding longitude. Routes of the tracked birds were associated with partial reduction in the barrier crossing resulting in a trade-off between route extension and barrier reduction, as expected in an energy-minimizing migrant. This study demonstrates how the costs of barrier crossings in prevailing winds can disrupt migratory routes towards slightly different goals, and thereby promote migratory connectivity. This is an important link between individual migration strategies in association with an ecological barrier, and both spatially and demographic population patterns.

The lunar cycle drives migration of a nocturnal bird

Every year, billions of seasonal migrants connect continents by transporting nutrients, energy, and pathogens between distant communities and ecosystems. For animals that power their movements by endogenous energy stores, the daily energy intake rates strongly influence the speed of migration. If access to food resources varies cyclically over the season, migrants sensitive to changes in daily energy intake rates may adjust timing of migration accordingly. As an effect, individuals adjusting to a common temporal cycle are expected to approach synchrony in foraging and movement. A large-scale periodic pattern, such as the dark–light cycle of the moon, could thus synchronize migrations across animal populations. However, such cyclic effects on the temporal regulation of migration has not been considered. Here, we show the temporal influence of the lunar cycle on the movement activity and migration tactics in a visual hunting nocturnal insectivore and long-distance migrant, the European nightjar, Caprimulgus europeaus. We found that the daily foraging activity more than doubled during moonlit nights, likely driven by an increase in light-dependent fuelling opportunities. This resulted in a clear cyclicity also in the intensity of migratory movements, with occasionally up to 100% of the birds migrating simultaneously following periods of full moon. We conclude that cyclic influences on migrants can act as an important regulator of the progression of individuals and synchronize pulses of migratory populations, with possible downstream effects on associated communities and ecosystems.

If the fuelling rate of birds varies periodically, it may act as a synchroniser of migrant populations over large spatial scales. Tracking of the nightjar, a long-distance nocturnal migrant bird, reveals that it adjusts its movements in relation to the lunar cycle.

Stochastic simulations reveal few green wave surfing populations among spring migrating herbivorous waterfowl

Tracking seasonally changing resources is regarded as a widespread proximate mechanism underpinning animal migration. Migrating herbivores, for example, are hypothesized to track seasonal foliage dynamics over large spatial scales. Previous investigations of this green wave hypothesis involved few species and limited geographical extent, and used conventional correlation that cannot disentangle alternative correlated effects. Here, we introduce stochastic simulations to test this hypothesis using 222 individual spring migration episodes of 14 populations of ten species of geese, swans and dabbling ducks throughout Europe, East Asia, and North America. We find that the green wave cannot be considered a ubiquitous driver of herbivorous waterfowl spring migration, as it explains observed migration patterns of only a few grazing populations in specific regions. We suggest that ecological barriers and particularly human disturbance likely constrain the capacity of herbivorous waterfowl to track the green wave in some regions, highlighting key challenges in conserving migratory birds.

A full annual perspective on sex-biased migration timing in long-distance migratory birds

In many taxa, the most common form of sex-biased migration timing is protandry-the earlier arrival of males at breeding areas. Here we test this concept across the annual cycle of long-distance migratory birds. Using more than 350 migration tracks of small-bodied trans-Saharan migrants, we quantify differences in male and female migration schedules and test for proximate determinants of sex-specific timing. In autumn, males started migration about 2 days earlier, but this difference did not carry over to arrival at the non-breeding sites. In spring, males on average departed from the African non-breeding sites about 3 days earlier and reached breeding sites ca 4 days ahead of females. A cross-species comparison revealed large variation in the level of protandry and protogyny across the annual cycle. While we found tight links between individual timing of departure and arrival within each migration season, only for males the timing of spring migration was linked to the timing of previous autumn migration. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that protandry is not exclusively a reproductive strategy but rather occurs year-round and the two main proximate determinants for the magnitude of sex-biased arrival times in autumn and spring are sex-specific differences in departure timing and migration duration.

The start of migration correlates with arrival timing, and the total speed of migration increases with migration distance in migratory songbirds: a cross-continental analysis

BACKGROUND

Anthropogenic changes in the climate and environment have globally affected ecological processes such that the spatiotemporal occurrence of the main annual cycle events (i.e., breeding, wintering, moulting, and migration) has shifted in migratory birds. Variation in arrival timing at migratory destinations can be proximately caused by an altered start of migration, total migration distance, and/or total speed of migration. Quantifying the relative contributions of these causes is important because this will indicate the mechanisms whereby birds could potentially adjust their annual cycle in response to global change. However, we have relatively little quantitative information about how each of these factors contributes to variation in arrival timing. My main aims are to estimate how arrival timing is correlated with variation in the start of migration and the total migration distance and how the total speed of migration may change with the total migration distance and body mass in a comprehensive analysis including multiple species.

METHODS

For this purpose, I considered individual tracks covering complete migrations from multiple species and distinguished between within- and between-species effects.

RESULTS

Assuming that the within- and between-species effects quantified under this approach agree with the effects acting at the individual level, starting migration one day later or increasing the total migration distance by 1000 km would result in later arrival timing by 0.4-0.8 days or 2-5 days, respectively. The generality with which the start of migration is correlated with arrival timing within species suggests that this is the general biological mechanism regulating arrival timing, rather than the total migration distance. The total speed of migration was positively correlated with the total migration distance but not with the bird's body mass.

CONCLUSIONS

As the start of migration is endogenously controlled and/or affected by hatching date, directional selection can probably act on existing within-species/within-population variation to alter arrival timing. This factor and the importance of variation in the start of migration for arrival timing suggest that migratory species/populations in which there is sufficient variation in the start of migration and transgenerational processes affect the corresponding timing may present an advantage over others in coping with anthropogenic-induced global changes.

Genomes to space stations: the need for the integrative study of migration for avian conservation

Ongoing changes to global weather patterns and human modifications of the environment have altered the breeding and non-breeding ranges of migratory species, the timing of their migrations, and even whether they continue to migrate at all. Animal movements are arguably one of the most difficult behaviours to study, particularly in smaller birds that migrate tens to thousands of kilometres seasonally, often moving hundreds of kilometres each day. The recent miniaturization of tracking and logging devices has led to a radical transformation in our understanding of avian migratory behaviour and migratory connectivity. While advances in technology have altered the way researchers study migratory behaviour in the field, advances in techniques related to the study of physiological and genetic mechanisms underlying migratory behaviour have rarely been integrated into field studies of tracking. To predict the capacity of migrants to adjust to a changing planet, it is essential that we combine avian migration data with physiological and genetic measurements taken at key time points prior to, during and after migration.

The influence of weather on avian spring migration phenology: What, where and when?

Over the past decades, spring arrival and passage of most short- and medium-distance migrating birds in the Northern Hemisphere have advanced. Changes in spring temperature at the passage or arrival area have been most frequently shown to be related to these changes in spring migration phenology. In most studies, preliminary assumptions are made on both the spatial location and the specific time frame of the weather influencing spring migration phenology. We performed a spatially explicit time-window analysis of the effect of weather on mean spring passage dates of nine short- and medium-distance passerines. We analysed data from standardized daily captures at the Helgoland (Germany) constant-effort site, in combination with gridded daily temperature, precipitation and wind data from the NCEP data set over a 55-year period (1960-2014), across the whole of West Europe and North Africa. Although we allowed for a time window of any length at any location, nevertheless incorporating various measures to avoid spurious correlations, time windows at the likely wintering or spring stopover grounds were almost exclusively selected as the best predicting variables (96%-100% of identified variables). The weather variables at the wintering and stopover grounds explain up to 77% of the interannual variability in spring passage. Yet, the response of spring migration phenology to weather at the winter or stopover areas does not fully explain the observed trends. Spring migration phenology is, hence, strongly driven by weather at the wintering and stopover grounds, but additional mechanisms are needed to fully explain the advancement of spring migration. Our results also clearly show that previously illustrated correlations, or the lack thereof, between spring migration phenology and weather at the passage or arrival location are due to spatio-temporal correlations in the weather data. This spatial mismatch might have led to false conclusions, especially the further away the wintering or stopover sites are.

Finish with a sprint: Evidence for time-selected last leg of migration in a long-distance migratory songbird

Under time-selected migration, birds should choose a strategy for outcompeting rivals over securing access to prime resources at the final destination. Thus, migration can be viewed as a race among individuals where winners are arriving first when conditions are suitable. The sprint migration hypothesis predicts that individuals shift from maximum sustained speed to a final burst of sprint to shorten the transition from migration to breeding (Alerstam, 2006). In this study, we test the hypothesis of a final sprint migration in a long-distance Afro-Palearctic migrant, the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis, during autumn and spring, and compare migration strategies between the seasons. In both seasons, collared flycatchers evidently exhibited sprint migration by increasing their overall speed over the last leg of migration after the Sahara crossing. This phenomenon was more pronounced in spring, contributing to overall faster spring migration and possibly highlighting higher importance for early arrival at the breeding grounds. In both seasons and particularly in spring, late departing individuals flew at a faster rate, partially being able to catch up with their early departing conspecifics. Differential fueling strategies may play an important role in determining migration speed, especially during the early stages of the migration, and might explain the observed differences in migration speeds between late and early departing individuals. Our findings suggest competition for early arrival at the breeding and at the nonbreeding destinations alike. Sprint migration might be an appropriate strategy to gain advantage over conspecifics and settle in prime territories as well as to cope with the increasingly earlier springs at high latitudes.

Eavesdropping on the Arctic: Automated bioacoustics reveal dynamics in songbird breeding phenology

Bioacoustic networks could vastly expand the coverage of wildlife monitoring to complement satellite observations of climate and vegetation. This approach would enable global-scale understanding of how climate change influences phenomena such as migratory timing of avian species. The enormous data sets that autonomous recorders typically generate demand automated analyses that remain largely undeveloped. We devised automated signal processing and machine learning approaches to estimate dates on which songbird communities arrived at arctic breeding grounds. Acoustically estimated dates agreed well with those determined via traditional surveys and were strongly related to the landscape's snow-free dates. We found that environmental conditions heavily influenced daily variation in songbird vocal activity, especially before egg laying. Our novel approaches demonstrate that variation in avian migratory arrival can be detected autonomously. Large-scale deployment of this innovation in wildlife monitoring would enable the coverage necessary to assess and forecast changes in bird migration in the face of climate change.

Timing avian long-distance migration: from internal clock mechanisms to global flights

Migratory birds regularly perform impressive long-distance flights, which are timed relative to the anticipated environmental resources at destination areas that can be several thousand kilometres away. Timely migration requires diverse strategies and adaptations that involve an intricate interplay between internal clock mechanisms and environmental conditions across the annual cycle. Here we review what challenges birds face during long migrations to keep track of time as they exploit geographically distant resources that may vary in availability and predictability, and summarize the clock mechanisms that enable them to succeed. We examine the following challenges: departing in time for spring and autumn migration, in anticipation of future environmental conditions; using clocks on the move, for example for orientation, navigation and stopover; strategies of adhering to, or adjusting, the time programme while fitting their activities into an annual cycle; and keeping pace with a world of rapidly changing environments. We then elaborate these themes by case studies representing long-distance migrating birds with different annual movement patterns and associated adaptations of their circannual programmes. We discuss the current knowledge on how endogenous migration programmes interact with external information across the annual cycle, how components of annual cycle programmes encode topography and range expansions, and how fitness may be affected when mismatches between timing and environmental conditions occur. Lastly, we outline open questions and propose future research directions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Wild clocks: integrating chronobiology and ecology to understand timekeeping in free-living animals'.

Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway.

Cold spell en route delays spring arrival and decreases apparent survival in a long-distance migratory songbird

Background

Adjusting the timing of annual events to gradual changes in environmental conditions is necessary for population viability. However, adaptations to weather extremes are poorly documented in migratory species. Due to their vast seasonal movements, long-distance migrants face unique challenges in responding to changes as they rely on an endogenous circannual rhythm to cue the timing of their migration. Furthermore, the exact mechanisms that explain how environmental factors shape the migration schedules of long-distance migrants are often unknown.

Results

Here we show that long-distance migrating semi-collared flycatchers Ficedula semitorquata delayed the last phase of their spring migration and the population suffered low return rates to breeding sites while enduring a severe cold spell en route. We found that the onset of spring migration in Africa and the timing of Sahara crossing were consistent between early and late springs while the arrival at the breeding site depended on spring phenology at stopover areas in each particular year.

Conclusion

Understanding how environmental stimuli and endogenous circannual rhythms interact can improve predictions of the consequences of climate changes on migratory animals.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12898-017-0121-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Actogram analysis of free-flying migratory birds: new perspectives based on acceleration logging

The use of accelerometers has become an important part of biologging techniques for large-sized birds with accelerometer data providing information about flight mode, wing-beat pattern, behaviour and energy expenditure. Such data show that birds using much energy-saving soaring/gliding flight like frigatebirds and swifts can stay airborne without landing for several months. Successful accelerometer studies have recently been conducted also for free-flying small songbirds during their entire annual cycle. Here we review the principles and possibilities for accelerometer studies in bird migration. We use the first annual actograms (for red-backed shrike Lanius collurio) to explore new analyses and insights that become possible with accelerometer data. Actogram data allow precise estimates of numbers of flights, flight durations as well as departure/landing times during the annual cycle. Annual and diurnal rhythms of migratory flights, as well as prolonged nocturnal flights across desert barriers are illustrated. The shifting balance between flight, rest and different intensities of activity throughout the year as revealed by actogram data can be used to analyse exertion levels during different phases of the life cycle. Accelerometer recording of the annual activity patterns of individual birds will open up a new dimension in bird migration research.

Flexible reaction norms to environmental variables along the migration route and the significance of stopover duration for total speed of migration in a songbird migrant

BACKGROUND

Predicting the consequences of continuing anthropogenic changes in the environment for migratory behaviours such as phenology remains a major challenge. Predictions remain particularly difficult, because our knowledge is based on studies from single-snapshot observations at specific stopover sites along birds' migration routes. However, a general understanding on how birds react to prevailing environmental conditions, e.g. their 'phenotypic reaction norm', throughout the annual cycle and along their entire migration routes is required to fully understand how migratory birds respond to rapid environmental change.

RESULTS

Here, we provide direct evidence that northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) from a breeding population in Alaska adjusted their probability to resume migration as well as the distance covered per night, i.e. travel speed, to large-scale environmental conditions experienced along their 15,000 km migratory route on both northwards and southwards migrations. These adjustments were found to be flexible in space and time. At the beginning of autumn migration, northern wheatears showed high departure probabilities and high travel speeds at low surface air temperatures, while far away from Alaska both traits decreased with increasing air temperatures. In spring, northern wheatears increasingly exploited flow assistance with season, which is likely a behavioural adjustment to speed up migration by increasing the distance travelled per night. Furthermore, the variation in total stopover duration but not in travel speed had a significant effect on the total speed of migration, indicating the prime importance of total stopover duration in the overall phenology of bird migration.

CONCLUSION

Northern wheatears from Alaska provide evidence that the phenotypic reaction norm to a set of environmental conditions cannot be generalized to universal and persistent behavioural reaction pattern across entire migratory pathways. This highlights the importance of full annual-cycle studies on migratory birds to better understand their response to the environment. Understanding the mechanisms behind phenotypic plasticity during migration is particularly important in the assessment of whether birds can keep pace with the potentially increasing phenological mismatches observed on the breeding grounds.