Recurrent insect outbreaks caused by temperature-driven changes in system stability

Variation in Avian Predation Pressure as a Driver for the Diversification of Periodical Cicada Broods

AbstractPeriodical cicadas live 13 or 17 years underground as nymphs, then emerge in synchrony as adults to reproduce. Developmentally synchronized populations called broods rarely coexist, with one dominant brood locally excluding those that emerge in off years. Twelve modern 17-year cicada broods are believed to have descended from only three ancestral broods following the last glaciation. The mechanisms by which these daughter broods overcame exclusion by the ancestral brood to synchronously emerge in a different year, however, are elusive. Here, we demonstrate that temporal variation in the population density of generalist predators can allow intermittent opportunities for new broods to invade, even though a single brood remains dominant most of the time. We show that this mechanism is consistent, in terms of the type and frequency of brood replacements, with the distribution of periodical cicada broods throughout North America today. Although we investigate one particularly charismatic case study, the mechanisms involved (competitive exclusion, Allee effects, trait variation, predation, and temporal variability) are ubiquitous and could contribute to patterns of species diversity in a range of systems.

Cyclin B3 plays pleiotropic roles in female reproductive organogenesis and early embryogenesis in the silkworm, Bombyx mori

BACKGROUND

The reproductive system plays a crucial role in insect survival, reproduction and species specificity. Understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying reproductive organogenesis contributes to improving the efficiency of sterile insect technique marked by an eco-friendly pest management strategy. Lepidoptera is one of the largest orders of insects, most of which are major pests in agriculture and forestry. Our study aimed to screen the genes responsible for reproductive organogenesis and unravel the mechanism underlying female reproductive organ defects.

RESULTS

Morphological investigation of female reproductive organs showed a defective connection between oviductus geminus and oviductus communis on the second day of pupa (P2) in Speckled mutant silkworm. RNA_Seq identified a total of 18 049 transcripts that were expressed in the P2 female internal reproductive organs without ovary in Spc/+ compared to +Spc /+Spc . Differential expression analysis identified 312 up-regulated genes and 221 down-regulated genes in Spc/+. KEGG analysis identified 44 significantly enriched pathways. The results of qRT-PCR performed on 33 genes significantly matched the outcomes of the RNA_Seq. Dysfunction of Cyclin B3 resulted in a defective connection of the oviductus communis with the ovariole, dysfunction of oogenesis, and a petite body. Moreover, homozygous recessive lethality of Cyclin B3/Cyclin B3 occurred during early embryogenesis.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that Cyclin B3 is a pleiotropic functional gene that regulates early embryogenesis, oogenesis, development, and female reproductive organogenesis. These results showed that Cyclin B3 has significant effects on lepidopteran mortality, growth, and reproductive physiology, which might be considered a novel and potentially eco-friendly target for lepidopteran pest management. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Aerospace-foraging bats eat seasonably across varying habitats

Recent research has confirmed the efficiency of insectivorous bats as pest suppressors, underlining the ecological services they offer in agroecosystems. Therefore, some efforts try to enhance bat foraging in agricultural landscapes by acting upon environmental factors favouring them. In this study, we monitored a Miniopterus schreibersii colony, in the southern Iberian Peninsula. We intensively sampled their faeces and analysed them by metabarcoding to describe how the bent-winged bat diet would change with time, and to test whether their most-consumed prey would seasonally depend on different landscapes or habitats. Our results confirm that M. schreibersii are selective opportunist predators of moths, dipterans, mayflies, and other fluttering insects, shifting their diet to temporary peaks of prey availability in their foraging range, including both pest and non-pest insects. Supporting our hypothesis, throughout the year, M. schreibersii consume insects linked to diverse open habitats, including wetlands, grassland, diverse croplands, and woodland. The importance of each prey habitat varies seasonally, depending on their insect phenology, making bats indirectly dependent on a diverse landscape as their primary prey source. Bats' predation upon pest insects is quantitatively high, consuming around 1610 kg in 5 months, of which 1467 kg correspond to ten species. So, their suppression effect may be relevant, mainly in patchy heterogeneous landscapes, where bats' foraging may concentrate in successive outbursts of pests, affecting different crops or woodlands. Our results stress that to take advantage of the ecosystem services of bats or other generalist insectivores, keeping the environmental conditions they require to thrive, particularly a heterogeneous landscape within the colony's foraging area, is crucial.

A Time for Every Purpose: Using Time-Dependent Sensitivity Analysis to Help Understand and Manage Dynamic Ecological Systems

AbstractSensitivity analysis is often used to help understand and manage ecological systems by assessing how a constant change in vital rates or other model parameters might affect the management outcome. This allows the manager to identify the most favorable course of action. However, realistic changes are often localized in time-for example, a short period of culling leads to a temporary increase in the mortality rate over the period. Hence, knowing when to act may be just as important as knowing what to act on. In this article, we introduce the method of time-dependent sensitivity analysis (TDSA) that simultaneously addresses both questions. We illustrate TDSA using three case studies: transient dynamics in static disease transmission networks, disease dynamics in a reservoir species with seasonal life history events, and endogenously driven population cycles in herbivorous invertebrate forest pests. We demonstrate how TDSA often provides useful biological insights, which are understandable on hindsight but would not have been easily discovered without the help of TDSA. However, as a caution, we also show how TDSA can produce results that mainly reflect uncertain modeling choices and are therefore potentially misleading. We provide guidelines to help users maximize the utility of TDSA while avoiding pitfalls.

No life-history cost of tebufenozide resistance in the smaller tea tortrix moth

BACKGROUND

Tebufenozide is widely used to control populations of the smaller tea tortrix, Adoxophyes honmai. However, A. honmai has evolved resistance such that straightforward pesticide application is an untenable long-term approach for population control. Evaluating the fitness cost of resistance is key to devising a management strategy that slows the evolution of resistance.

RESULTS

We used three approaches to assess the life-history cost of tebufenozide resistance with two strains of A. honmai: a tebufenozide-resistant strain recently collected from the field in Japan and a susceptible strain that has been maintained in the laboratory for decades. First, we found that the resistant strain with standing genetic variation did not decline in resistance in the absence of insecticide over four generations. Second, we found that genetic lines that spanned a range of resistance profiles did not show a negative correlation between their LD₅₀ , the dosage at which 50 % of individuals died, and life-history traits that are correlates of fitness. Third, we found that the resistant strain did not manifest life-history costs under food limitation. Our crossing experiments indicate that the allele at an ecdysone receptor locus known to confer resistance explained much of the variance in resistance profiles across genetic lines.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that the point mutation in the ecdysone receptor, which is widespread in tea plantations in Japan, does not carry a fitness cost in the tested laboratory conditions. The absence of a cost of resistance and the mode of inheritance have implications for which strategies may be effective in future resistance management efforts. © 2023 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

A time for every purpose: using time-dependent sensitivity analysis to help understand and manage dynamic ecological systems

Sensitivity analysis is often used to help understand and manage ecological systems, by assessing how a constant change in vital rates or other model parameters might affect the management outcome. This allows the manager to identify the most favorable course of action. However, realistic changes are often localized in time-for example, a short period of culling leads to a temporary increase in the mortality rate over the period. Hence, knowing when to act may be just as important as knowing what to act upon. In this article, we introduce the method of time-dependent sensitivity analysis (TDSA) that simultaneously addresses both questions. We illustrate TDSA using three case studies: transient dynamics in static disease transmission networks, disease dynamics in a reservoir species with seasonal life-history events, and endogenously-driven population cycles in herbivorous invertebrate forest pests. We demonstrate how TDSA often provides useful biological insights, which are understandable on hindsight but would not have been easily discovered without the help of TDSA. However, as a caution, we also show how TDSA can produce results that mainly reflect uncertain modeling choices and are therefore potentially misleading. We provide guidelines to help users maximize the utility of TDSA while avoiding pitfalls.

Modeling and Prediction of the Species’ Range of Neurobasis chinensis (Linnaeus, 1758) under Climate Change

Simple Summary

Global climate change is accelerating and modifying the distribution of many extant species. Dragonflies, as a group, inhabit aquatic as well as terrestrial environments and are considered sensitive climate change indicators. In this study, we model and predict the range of a large, tropical damselfly Neurobasis chinensis L. under the last glacial maximum (LGM), the current, and four future warming scenarios. The models show that the species mainly occupies forest ecosystems below 1200 m (preferring 500 to 1200 m) and had two historic core distribution areas in LGM, one of which survived, namely south-central Vietnam. The future scenarios show that the core distribution, high suitable habitats, and even the whole species range of N. chinensis will extend northwards.

Abstract

Neurobasis chinensis is widely distributed in eastern tropical Asia. Its only congener in China, the N. anderssoni, has not been observed for decades. To protect N. chinensis, it is necessary to understand the ecological properties of its habitats and specie’s range shift under climate change. In the present study, we modeled its potential distribution under one historical, current, and four future scenarios. We evaluated the importance of the factors that shape its distribution and habitats and predicted the historical and current core spatial distributions and their shifting in the future. Two historical core distribution areas were identified: the inland region of the Bay of Bengal and south-central Vietnam. The current potential distribution includes south China, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Luzon of Philippines, Malaysia, southwest and northeast India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia (Java, Sumatera), Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and foothills of the Himalayas, in total, ca. 3.59 × 10⁶ km². Only one core distribution remained, concentrated in south-central Vietnam. In a warming future, the core distribution, high suitable habitats, and even the whole range of N. chinensis will expand and shift northwards. Currently, N. chinensis mainly resides in forest ecosystems below 1200 m above sea level (preferred 500 m to 1200 m a.s.l.). Annual precipitation, mean temperature of driest quarter, and seasonality of precipitation are important factors shaping the species distribution. Our study provides systematic information on habitats and geographical distribution, which is useful for the conservation of N. chinensis.

The Effect of Temperatures and Hosts on the Life Cycle of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

The interactions between ambient temperatures and host plants are central to the population dynamics of invasive animal species. Despite significant research into the effects of temperatures, the performance of invasive species is also influenced by host plants. The effects of different temperatures (20, 25, and 30 °C) and host plants (maize, sorghum, and coix seed) were tested on the mortality, development, reproduction, and population parameters of the fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (J E Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), using an age-stage, two-sex life table. The results support the hypothesis that temperature and the species of the host plant significantly influences the performance of FAW. Feeding on maize at 30 °C resulted in a lower mortality rate, a shorter developmental time and longevity, a higher fecundity, intrinsic rate of natural increase (r), finite rate of increase (λ), and net reproductive rate (R0). However, at 20 °C, the host plant could eliminate temperature-mediated synergism in FAW performance, which did not reach statistical significance at 20 °C. Similar results induced by a relatively low temperature (20 °C) on different host plants were also found in the age-stage specific survival curves (sxj), fecundity (mx), maternity (lxmx), and reproductive value (vxj) curves of FAW. Consequently, we also need to pay more attention to FAW outbreaks on different host plants mediated by relatively low temperatures.

Population Parameters and Growth of Riptortus pedestris (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Alydidae) under Fluctuating Temperature

Simple Summary

The bean bug, Riptortus pedestris, is a polyphagous species that is an important pest of soybean fields in Asian countries. In this study, we examined the effects of constant and fluctuating temperatures on the development and reproduction of R. pedestris. The effects of thermal conditions were assessed by constructing age-stage, two-sex life tables from a constant temperature of 24 °C and simulated fluctuating temperatures of 24 ± 4 °C, 24 ± 6 °C, and 24 ± 8 °C. At a constant temperature, a number of R. pedestris life table parameters differed from those under fluctuating temperatures. Although similar pre-adult development periods were recorded under constant and fluctuating temperatures, the periods of female longevity and oviposition periods under fluctuating temperatures were significantly longer than those at a constant temperature. Given that temperature is an important abiotic factor for forecasting the population dynamics of arthropods in nature, determining the effects of fluctuating temperatures will make a valuable contribution to predicting R. pedestris population growth.

Abstract

In this study, we determined the influence of fluctuating temperatures on the development and fecundity of the bean bug Riptortus pedestris (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Alydidae) by collecting life table data for individuals exposed at a constant temperature (24 °C) and three fluctuating temperatures (24 ± 4 °C, 24 ± 6 °C, and 24 ± 8 °C). The raw life history data were analyzed using an age-stage, two-sex life table to take into account the viable development rate among individuals. Based on these analyses, the population projections enabled us to determine the stage structure and variability of population growth under different temperature treatments. Our results revealed shorter periods of immature development and a higher pre-adult survival rate at 24 ± 6 °C than under the other assessed temperature conditions. Furthermore, significant reductions in female longevity were recorded at 24 °C, whereas the fecundity, net reproductive rate, and intrinsic and finite rates of increase were highest at 24 ± 6 °C. These findings reveal that fluctuating temperatures have a positive influence on the life history traits of R. pedestris and indicate that observations made under constant temperatures may not explain sufficiently enough the temperature dependent biological performances of pests in the field.

Extending the Storage Time of Clanis bilineata tsingtauica (Lepidoptera; Sphingidae) Eggs through Variable-Temperature Cold Storage

Clanis bilineata tsingtauica Mell, 1922 (Lepidoptera, Sphingidae), also known as “Doudan” in China, is an important pest in legume crops. As an edible insect, it is most commonly consumed in Jiangsu, Shandong, and Henan Provinces. Mass rearing requires access to large numbers of eggs. This stage, however, is of short duration and supplies are frequently not sufficient for insect production. Therefore, we identified the cold storage conditions for C. bilineata tsingtauica that can effectively prolong the storage time of the eggs, to make supplies more readily available. We found that when stored at 4 °C, only 7.5% of the eggs hatched after 7 days, while at 10 °C the hatch rate was 78.3%. At 15 °C, the egg hatch rate remained at this same level (77.8% even after 14–20 days). Considering various combinations, we found that optimal egg hatch occurred if eggs were stored at 15 °C for 11 days, and then held at 15–20 °C under dark conditions. Stored as described above, the egg hatch rate was not significantly different from the control group (at 28 °C). These conditions allow for easier mass rearing of C. bilineata tsingtauica by providing a stable supply of eggs.

Changes in climate drive recent monarch butterfly dynamics

Declines in the abundance and diversity of insects pose a substantial threat to terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, identifying the causes of these declines has proved difficult, even for well-studied species like monarch butterflies, whose eastern North American population has decreased markedly over the last three decades. Three hypotheses have been proposed to explain the changes observed in the eastern monarch population: loss of milkweed host plants from increased herbicide use, mortality during autumn migration and/or early-winter resettlement and changes in breeding-season climate. Here, we use a hierarchical modelling approach, combining data from >18,000 systematic surveys to evaluate support for each of these hypotheses over a 25-yr period. Between 2004 and 2018, breeding-season weather was nearly seven times more important than other factors in explaining variation in summer population size, which was positively associated with the size of the subsequent overwintering population. Although data limitations prevent definitive evaluation of the factors governing population size between 1994 and 2003 (the period of the steepest monarch decline coinciding with a widespread increase in herbicide use), breeding-season weather was similarly identified as an important driver of monarch population size. If observed changes in spring and summer climate continue, portions of the current breeding range may become inhospitable for monarchs. Our results highlight the increasingly important contribution of a changing climate to insect declines.

Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Brazil: the Big Outbreak Monitored by Light Traps

The first detection of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Brazil pointed to a gloomy future for South American agriculture in the 2012/2013 harvest, and insecticide sales increased exponentially during 2013 and 2014. However, after this outbreak, the population of this insect returned to manageable levels. This study documents data on H. armigera moth collection using light traps during the outbreak in two locations: (a) western region of the state of Bahia, including population levels of H. armigera and main noctuid pests during the big outbreak (February and March 2013); (b) Federal District, including monthly data for five growing seasons (July 2012-June 2017). During the outbreak, an average of 527.3 moths were collected per trap (cotton crop, March) in the western region of Bahia each night, while the maximum average in the Federal District was 75.4 moths (January). The number of moths decreased in the following growing seasons, and in October 2016, the maximum number was 2.8 moths per trap. Aspects related to the variations of H. armigera and Helicoverpa zea (Boddie) populations, including the study of phenology and relationship with climatic factors and Oceanic Niño Index, were analyzed and discussed. All aspects are approached to contribute to the management of lepidopteran pests, especially H. armigera, in the productive systems of the Brazilian Cerrado.

Population dynamics of sugarcane borers, Diatraea spp., under different climatic scenarios in Colombia

Seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns on a global scale are main factors to which insects and plants adapt through natural selection, although periodic outbreaks in insect populations may occur in areas where they had not been previously reported, a phenomenon considered as a consequence of global warming. In this study, we estimate the distribution of sugarcane borers, Diatraea spp., under different climate scenarios (rcp26, rcp45, rcp60 and rcp85.) Insects were collected weekly in four sugarcane fields from four different towns in the department of Caldas (Colombia) during 2017, and also in several sugarcane fields in the Cauca River Valley (CRV) between 2010 and 2017. The influence of climatic variables on different agro-ecological zones of the CRV sugarcane fields was defined by climatic data between 2010 and 2017 (maximum and minimum daily temperatures, and accumulated precipitation). The estimate of an optimal niche for Diatraea spp. includes temperatures between 20°C and 23°C, accumulated annual rainfall between 1200 and 1500 mm, dry months with precipitations below 50 mm, slopes of less than 0.05 degrees, crop heterogeneity with an index of 0.2 and primary production values of 1.0. Data suggests Diatraea population is considerably influenced by adverse climate change effects, under the premise of an increase in local and global temperatures, reducing its population niches as well as the number of individuals.

Mechanisms of recurrent outbreak of COVID-19: a model-based study

Recurrent outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in many countries around the world. We developed a twofold framework in this study, which is composed by one novel descriptive model to depict the recurrent global outbreaks of COVID-19 and one dynamic model to understand the intrinsic mechanisms of recurrent outbreaks. We used publicly available data of cumulative infected cases from 1 January 2020 to 2 January 2021 in 30 provinces in China and 43 other countries around the world for model validation and further analyses. These time series data could be well fitted by the new descriptive model. Through this quantitative approach, we discovered two main mechanisms that strongly correlate with the extent of the recurrent outbreak: the sudden increase in cases imported from overseas and the relaxation of local government epidemic prevention policies. The compartmental dynamical model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Dead and Recovered (SEIDR) Model) could reproduce the obvious recurrent outbreak of the epidemics and showed that both imported infected cases and the relaxation of government policies have a causal effect on the emergence of a new wave of outbreak, along with variations in the temperature index. Meanwhile, recurrent outbreaks affect consumer confidence and have a significant influence on GDP. These results support the necessity of policies such as travel bans, testing of people upon entry, and consistency of government prevention and control policies in avoiding future waves of epidemics and protecting economy.

Landscape modification and nutrient-driven instability at a distance

Almost 50 years ago, Michael Rosenzweig pointed out that nutrient addition can destabilise food webs, leading to loss of species and reduced ecosystem function through the paradox of enrichment. Around the same time, David Tilman demonstrated that increased nutrient loading would also be expected to cause competitive exclusion leading to deleterious changes in food web diversity. While both concepts have greatly illuminated general diversity-stability theory, we currently lack a coherent framework to predict how nutrients influence food web stability across a landscape. This is a vitally important gap in our understanding, given mounting evidence of serious ecological disruption arising from anthropogenic displacement of resources and organisms. Here, we combine contemporary theory on food webs and meta-ecosystems to show that nutrient additions are indeed expected to drive loss in stability and function in human-impacted regions. Our models suggest that destabilisation is more likely to be caused by the complete loss of an equilibrium due to edible plant species being competitively excluded. In highly modified landscapes, spatial nutrient transport theory suggests that such instabilities can be amplified over vast distances from the sites of nutrient addition. Consistent with this theoretical synthesis, the empirical frequency of these distant propagating ecosystem imbalances appears to be growing. This synthesis of theory and empirical data suggests that human modification of the Earth is strongly connecting distantly separated ecosystems, causing rapid, expansive and costly nutrient-driven instabilities over vast areas of the planet. Similar to existing food web theory, the corollary to this spatial nutrient theory is that slowing down spatial nutrient pathways can be a potent means of stabilising degraded ecosystems.

Potential Distribution of Nysius simulans (Hemiptera: Lygaeidae) in Soybean Crops in South America Under Current and Future Climate

Nysius simulans (Stål) is a suctorial, fluid feeding herbivore that can transmit toxins and spread pathogens via saliva and is an economically important pest for soybean in South America. Currently, N. simulans in soybean is predominantly found in Argentina, but future changes in the distribution from both dispersal and range shifts due to climate change may affect soybean cultivation in southern South America. We developed a species distribution model to examine the distribution range of N. simulans. We compared the potential distribution of N. simulans under current and future projected climatic conditions in order to identify future areas of natural occurrence with ecological niche models using Maxent. Current records of N. simulans show that while the species is present in Argentina, and some areas of Brazil, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay, our models suggest that many new suitable areas will be available for N. simulans under climate change including other regions of Argentina, and southern Chile. Our results also predict potential future range shifts and distributions into Bolivia, but not Peru nor Brazil. In our model, seasonal trends in temperature were shown to have the greatest contribution to the potential distribution, whereas isothermality (i.e., temperature variability) was correlated to potential future distribution ranges. We conclude that current populations of N. simulans may be expanding its distribution range by diffusion (i.e., range expansion over generations at the margins of populations), and regions with potential future N. simulans distribution should be closely monitored.

Temperature alters the shape of predator-prey cycles through effects on underlying mechanisms

Background

Predicting the effects of climate warming on the dynamics of ecological systems requires understanding how temperature influences birth rates, death rates and the strength of species interactions. The temperature dependance of these processes—which are the underlying mechanisms of ecological dynamics—is often thought to be exponential or unimodal, generally supported by short-term experiments. However, ecological dynamics unfold over many generations. Our goal was to empirically document shifts in predator–prey cycles over the full range of temperatures that can possibly support a predator–prey system and then to uncover the effect of temperature on the underlying mechanisms driving those changes.

Methods

We measured the population dynamics of the Didinium-Paramecium predator–prey system across a wide range of temperatures to reveal systematic changes in the dynamics of the system. We then used ordinary differential equation fitting to estimate parameters of a model describing the dynamics, and used these estimates to assess the long-term temperature dependance of all the underlying mechanisms.

Results

We found that predator–prey cycles shrank in state space from colder to hotter temperatures and that both cycle period and amplitude varied with temperature. Model parameters showed mostly unimodal responses to temperature, with one parameter (predator mortality) increasing monotonically with temperature and one parameter (predator conversion efficiency) invariant with temperature. Our results indicate that temperature can have profound, systematic effects on ecological dynamics, and these can arise through diverse and simultaneous changes in multiple underlying mechanisms. Predicting the effects of temperature on ecological dynamics may require additional investigation into how the underlying drivers of population dynamics respond to temperature beyond a short-term, acute response.

Cloning of a new HSP70 gene from western flowerthrips, Frankliniella occidentalis, and expression patterns during thermal stress

Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) is an invasive pest that endangers a wide variety of horticultural and agronomic crops. HSP70 is the most important member of the heat shock protein (HSP) family and plays an important role in insect thermal tolerance. In this study, a new gene encoding HSP70 from F. occidentalis, Fohsp706, was selected from the F. occidentalis transcriptome exposed to thermal stress (40 °C) and cloned by RT-PCR and RACE. Further characterization indicated that Fohsp706 localizes to the cytoplasm and does not contain introns. Quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase PCR indicated that Fohsp706 expression was significantly up-regulated by thermal stress; furthermore, there were significant differences in Fohsp706 expression in adults and second instar nymphs after heat stress. Our results indicated that Fohsp706 contributes to thermotolerance in F. occidentalis and provides another example of how this pest adapts to unfavorable environmental conditions.

The Influence of Temperature Variation on Life History Parameters and Thermal Performance Curves of Tamarixia radiata (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), a Parasitoid of the Asian Citrus Psyllid (Hemiptera: Liviidae)

This study examined the effects of seven constant and fluctuating temperature profiles with corresponding averages of 12 to 38°C on the life history of the Punjab, Pakistan-sourced Tamarixia radiata (Waterston) released in California for biological control of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama. One linear and seven nonlinear regression functions were fit to egg-to-adult development rate data to characterize thermal performance curves. Temperature fluctuations significantly affected both development and longevity of T. radiata. Estimates of degree-days predicted by the linear model were 30% higher for the fluctuating regime than the constant regime. Nonlinear model estimations of theoretical minimum and maximum developmental thresholds were lower for the fluctuating regime when compared to the constant regime. These predictions align with experimental observations. Parasitoids reared under fluctuating profiles at low average temperatures developed faster (15°C) and survived longer (15-20°C) when compared to those reared under constant regimes with corresponding means. In contrast, high average fluctuating temperatures produced parasitoids with an extended developmental period (35°C) and reduced longevity (30-35°C). A meta-analysis of published T. radiata development datasets, together with the results of this study, indicated convergence in degree-days and theoretical minimum developmental thresholds among geographically distinct parasitoid populations. These findings demonstrate the significant effects of temperature on T. radiata life history and have important implications for optimization of mass-rearing and release efforts, improvement of predictions from climate modeling, and comparison of T. radiata population performance across climatic gradients and geographic regions.

Environmental change effects on life-history traits and population dynamics of anadromous fishes

Migration, the recurring movement of individuals between a breeding and a non-breeding habitat, is a widespread phenomenon in the animal kingdom. Since the life cycle of migratory species involves two habitats, they are particularly vulnerable to environmental change, which may affect either of these habitats as well as the travel between them. In this study, we aim to reveal the consequences of environmental change affecting older life-history stages for the population dynamics and the individual life history of a migratory population. We formulate a population model based on the individual energetics and life history to study how increased energetic cost of the breeding travel and reduced survival and food availability in the non-breeding habitat affect an anadromous fish population. These unfavourable conditions have impacts at the individual and the population level. First, when conditions deteriorate individuals in the breeding habitat have a higher body growth rate as a consequence of reductions in spawning that reduce competition. Second, population abundance decreases, and its dynamics change from a regular annual cycle to oscillations with a period of four years. The oscillations are caused by the density-dependent feedback between individuals within a cohort through the food abundance in the breeding habitat, which results in alternation of a strong and a weak cohort. Our results explain how environmental change, by affecting older life-history stages, has multiple consequences for other life stages and for the entire population. We discuss these results in the context of empirical data and highlight the need for mechanistic understanding of the interactions between life-history and population dynamics in response to environmental change.

Regional climate affects salmon lice dynamics, stage structure and management

Regional variation in climate can generate differences in population dynamics and stage structure. Where regional differences exist, the best approach to pest management may be region-specific. Salmon lice are a stage-structured marine copepod that parasitizes salmonids at aquaculture sites worldwide, and have fecundity, development and mortality rates that depend on temperature and salinity. We show that in Atlantic Canada and Norway, where the oceans are relatively cold, salmon lice abundance decreases during the winter months, but ultimately increases from year to year, while in Ireland and Chile, where the oceans are warmer, the population size grows monotonically without any seasonal declines. In colder regions, during the winter the stage structure is dominated by the adult stage, which is in contrast to warmer regions where all stages are abundant year round. These differences translate into region-specific recommendations for management: regions with slower population growth have lower critical stocking densities, and regions with cold winters have a seasonal dependence in the timing of follow-up chemotherapeutic treatments. Predictions of our salmon lice model agree with empirical data, and our approach provides a method to understand the effects of regional differences in climate on salmon lice dynamics and management.

The Challenge of Quantifying Synchrony in Malaria Parasites

Malaria infection is often accompanied by periodic fevers, triggered by synchronous cycles of parasite replication within the host. The degree of synchrony in parasite development influences the efficacy of drugs and immune defenses and is therefore relevant to host health and infectiousness. Synchrony is thought to vary over the course of infection and across different host-parasite genotype or species combinations, but the evolutionary significance - if any - of this diversity remains elusive. Standardized methods are lacking, but the most common metric for quantifying synchrony is the percentage of parasites in a particular developmental stage. We use a heuristic model to show that this metric is often unacceptably biased. Methodological challenges must be addressed to characterize diverse patterns of synchrony and their consequences for disease severity and spread.

Stability analysis of a state-dependent delay differential equation for cell maturation: analytical and numerical methods

We consider a mathematical model describing the maturation process of stem cells up to fully mature cells. The model is formulated as a differential equation with state-dependent delay, where maturity is described as a continuous variable. The maturation rate of cells may be regulated by the amount of mature cells and, moreover, it may depend on cell maturity: we investigate how the stability of equilibria is affected by the choice of the maturation rate. We show that the principle of linearised stability holds for this model, and develop some analytical methods for the investigation of characteristic equations for fixed delays. For a general maturation rate we resort to numerical methods and we extend the pseudospectral discretisation technique to approximate the state-dependent delay equation with a system of ordinary differential equations. This is the first application of the technique to nonlinear state-dependent delay equations, and currently the only method available for studying the stability of equilibria by means of established software packages for bifurcation analysis. The numerical method is validated on some cases when the maturation rate is independent of maturity and the model can be reformulated as a fixed-delay equation via a suitable time transformation. We exploit the analytical and numerical methods to investigate the stability boundary in parameter planes. Our study shows some drastic qualitative changes in the stability boundary under assumptions on the model parameters, which may have important biological implications.

PA. Seed predation increases from the Arctic to the Equator and from high to low elevations

Species interactions have long been predicted to increase in intensity toward the tropics and low elevations because of gradients in climate, productivity, or biodiversity. Despite their importance for understanding global ecological and evolutionary processes, plant-animal interaction gradients are particularly difficult to test systematically across large geographic gradients, and evidence from smaller, disparate studies is inconclusive. By systematically measuring postdispersal seed predation using 6995 standardized seed depots along 18 mountains in the Pacific cordillera, we found that seed predation increases by 17% from the Arctic to the Equator and by 17% from 4000 meters above sea level to sea level. Clines in total predation, likely driven by invertebrates, were consistent across treeline ecotones and within continuous forest and were better explained by climate seasonality than by productivity, biodiversity, or latitude. These results suggest that species interactions play predictably greater ecological and evolutionary roles in tropical, lowland, and other less seasonal ecosystems.

Predators suppress herbivore outbreaks and enhance plant recovery following hurricanes

Understanding processes that may stabilize ecological systems confronted with rapidly changing environmental conditions is a key issue in ecology. We studied a system of highly fluctuating populations, the moth Achyra rantalis feeding on the plant Sesuvium portulacastrum in a group of small subtropical islands of the Bahamas. The plant is a prostrate inhabitant of shorelines, and consequently moths are highly vulnerable to being consumed by the ground-foraging lizard Anolis sagrei. We measured the percent ground cover of Sesuvium and abundance of Achyra on 11 islands with lizards present and 21 islands without lizards annually for 10 consecutive years. Overall abundance of Achyra was 4.6 times higher on no-lizard islands than on lizard islands. The percent cover of Sesuvium exhibited lower temporal variability on lizard islands when the study site was undisturbed by hurricanes, and higher recovery rate on lizard islands following hurricanes. We suggest that both of these stabilizing phenomena are linked to a trophic cascade in which predatory lizards control herbivore populations, thereby suppressing outbreaks and enhancing plant recovery following physical disturbance.

From noise to knowledge: how randomness generates novel phenomena and reveals information

Noise, as the term itself suggests, is most often seen a nuisance to ecological insight, a inconvenient reality that must be acknowledged, a haystack that must be stripped away to reveal the processes of interest underneath. Yet despite this well-earned reputation, noise is often interesting in its own right: noise can induce novel phenomena that could not be understood from some underlying deterministic model alone. Nor is all noise the same, and close examination of differences in frequency, colour or magnitude can reveal insights that would otherwise be inaccessible. Yet with each aspect of stochasticity leading to some new or unexpected behaviour, the time is right to move beyond the familiar refrain of "everything is important" (Bjørnstad & Grenfell ). Stochastic phenomena can suggest new ways of inferring process from pattern, and thus spark more dialog between theory and empirical perspectives that best advances the field as a whole. I highlight a few compelling examples, while observing that the study of stochastic phenomena are only beginning to make this translation into empirical inference. There are rich opportunities at this interface in the years ahead.

Developmental and reproductive performance of a specialist herbivore depend on seasonality of, and light conditions experienced by, the host plant

Host plant phenology (as influenced by seasonality) and light-mediated changes in the phenotypic and phytochemical properties of leaves have been hypothesised to equivocally influence insect herbivore performance. Here, we examined the effects of seasonality, through host plant phenology (late growth-season = autumn vs flowering-season = winter) and light environment (shade vs full-sun habitat) on the leaf characteristics of the invasive alien plant, Chromolaena odorata. In addition, the performance of a specialist folivore, Pareuchaetes insulata, feeding on leaves obtained from both shaded and full-sun habitats during autumn and winter, was evaluated over two generations. Foliar nitrogen and magnesium contents were generally higher in shaded plants with much higher levels during winter. Leaf water content was higher in shaded and in autumn plants. Total non-structural carbohydrate (TNC) and phosphorus contents did not differ as a function of season, but were higher in shaded foliage compared to full-sun leaves. Leaf toughness was noticeably higher on plants growing in full-sun during winter. With the exception of shaded leaves in autumn that supported the best performance [fastest development, heaviest pupal mass, and highest growth rate and Host Suitability Index (HSI) score], full-sun foliage in autumn surprisingly also supported an improved performance of the moth compared to shaded or full-sun leaves in winter. Our findings suggest that shaded and autumn foliage are nutritionally more suitable for the growth and reproduction of P. insulata. However, the heavier pupal mass, increased number of eggs and higher HSI score in individuals that fed on full-sun foliage in autumn compared to their counterparts that fed on shaded or full-sun foliage in winter suggest that full-sun foliage during autumn is also a suitable food source for larvae of the moth. In sum, our study demonstrates that seasonal and light-modulated changes in leaf characteristics can affect insect folivore performance in ways that are not linear.

Rapid Cold-Hardening of a Subtropical Species, Maruca vitrata (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), Accompanies Hypertrehalosemia by Upregulating Trehalose-6-Phosphate Synthase

A subtropical insect, Maruca vitrata (F.) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), is invasive to temperate zones, in which low temperatures during winter would be a serious challenge for colonization. This study assessed cold tolerance and cold-hardening of M. vitrata to understand its overwintering mechanism. Supercooling capacity was confirmed in all developmental stages exhibiting body freezing points at lower than -10°C, in which supercooling points (SCPs) were significantly different among developmental stages, with eggs having the lowest SCP (at -22.5°C). However, all developmental stages suffered significant mortality after being exposed to low temperatures much higher than SCPs. Furthermore, nonfreezing injury increased with elapsed time at 25°C after cold shock. One of the nonfreezing symptoms was a darkening on thorax, which was explained by uncontrolled prophenoloxidase activation. Pre-exposure to 8°C for 1 h significantly increased the survival of both young and old larvae to a low-temperature treatment (-5°C for 1 h). Rapid cold-hardening (RCH) was accompanied by significant increase in hemolymph trehalose concentration. During RCH, trehalose-6-phosphate synthase was significantly upregulated in its expression level. These results suggest that M. vitrata is a freeze-susceptible species and becomes cold-hardy via hypertrehalosemia.

Differential responses of body growth to artificial warming between parasitoids and hosts and the consequences for plant seed damage

Temperature increase may disrupt trophic interactions by differentially changing body growth of the species involved. In this study, we tested whether the response of body growth to artificial warming (~2.2 °C) of a solitary koinobiont endo-parasitoid wasp (Pteromalus albipennis, Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) differed from its main host tephritid fly (Tephritis femoralis, Diptera: Tephritidae; pre-dispersal seed predator), and whether the plant seed damage caused by wasp-parasitized and unparasitized maggots (larval flies) were altered by warming. In contrast to the significant and season-dependent effects of warming on body growth of the host tephritid fly reported in one of our previous studies, the effect of artificial warming on body growth was non-significant on the studied wasp. Moreover, the warming effect on seed damage due to unparasitized maggots was significant and varied with season, but the damage by parasitized maggots was not altered by warming. Distinct responses of body growth to warming between parasitoids studied here and hosts assessed in a previous study indicate that temperature increase may differentially affect life history traits of animals along food chains, which is likely to affect trophic interactions.

Population cycles emerging through multiple interaction types

Cyclic dynamics of populations are outstanding and widespread phenomena across many taxa. Previous theoretical studies have mainly focused on the consumer-resource interaction as the driving force for such cycling. However, natural ecosystems comprise diverse types of species interactions, but their roles in population dynamics remains unclear. Here, using a four-species hybrid module with antagonistic, mutualistic and competitive interactions, we analytically showed that the system with major interaction types can drive population cycles. Stronger interactions easily cause cycling, and even when sub-modules with possible combinations of two interactions are stabilized by weak interactions, the system with all interaction types can cause unstable population oscillations. Diversity of interaction types allows to add mutualists to the list of drivers of oscillations in a focal species' population size, when they act in conjunction to other drivers.

Population Explosions of Tiger Moth Lead to Lepidopterism Mimicking Infectious Fever Outbreaks

Lepidopterism is a disease caused by the urticating scales and toxic fluids of adult moths, butterflies or its caterpillars. The resulting cutaneous eruptions and systemic problems progress to clinical complications sometimes leading to death. High incidence of fever epidemics were associated with massive outbreaks of tiger moth Asota caricae adult populations during monsoon in Kerala, India. A significant number of monsoon related fever characteristic to lepidopterism was erroneously treated as infectious fevers due to lookalike symptoms. To diagnose tiger moth lepidopterism, we conducted immunoblots for tiger moth specific IgE in fever patients' sera. We selected a cohort of patients (n = 155) with hallmark symptoms of infectious fevers but were tested negative to infectious fevers. In these cases, the total IgE was elevated and was detected positive (78.6%) for tiger moth specific IgE allergens. Chemical characterization of caterpillar and adult moth fluids was performed by HPLC and GC-MS analysis and structural identification of moth scales was performed by SEM analysis. The body fluids and chitinous scales were found to be highly toxic and inflammatory in nature. To replicate the disease in experimental model, wistar rats were exposed to live tiger moths in a dose dependant manner and observed similar clinico-pathological complications reported during the fever epidemics. Further, to link larval abundance and fever epidemics we conducted cointegration test for the period 2009 to 2012 and physical presence of the tiger moths were found to be cointegrated with fever epidemics. In conclusion, our experiments demonstrate that inhalation of aerosols containing tiger moth fluids, scales and hairs cause systemic reactions that can be fatal to human. All these evidences points to the possible involvement of tiger moth disease as a major cause to the massive and fatal fever epidemics observed in Kerala.

Grassland responses to increased rainfall depend on the timescale of forcing

Forecasting impacts of future climate change is an important challenge to biologists, both for understanding the consequences of different emissions trajectories and for developing adaptation measures that will minimize biodiversity loss. Existing variation provides a window into the effects of climate on species and ecosystems, but in many places does not encompass the levels or timeframes of forcing expected under directional climatic change. Experiments help us to fill in these uncertainties, simulating directional shifts to examine outcomes of new levels and sustained changes in conditions. Here, we explore the translation between short-term responses to climate variability and longer-term trajectories that emerge under directional climatic change. In a decade-long experiment, we compare effects of short-term and long-term forcings across three trophic levels in grassland plots subjected to natural and experimental variation in precipitation. For some biological responses (plant productivity), responses to long-term extension of the rainy season were consistent with short-term responses, while for others (plant species richness, abundance of invertebrate herbivores and predators), there was pronounced divergence of long-term trajectories from short-term responses. These differences between biological responses mean that sustained directional changes in climate can restructure ecological relationships characterizing a system. Importantly, a positive relationship between plant diversity and productivity turned negative under one scenario of climate change, with a similar change in the relationship between plant productivity and consumer biomass. Inferences from experiments such as this form an important part of wider efforts to understand the complexities of climate change responses.

Exploring the role of temperature in the ocean through metabolic scaling

Temperature imposes a constraint on the rates and outcomes of ecological processes that determine community- and ecosystem-level patterns. The application of metabolic scaling theory has advanced our understanding of the influence of temperature on pattern and process in marine communities. Metabolic scaling theory uses the fundamental and ubiquitous patterns of temperature-dependent metabolism to predict how environmental temperature influences patterns and processes at higher levels of biological organization. Here, we outline some of these predictions to review recent advances and illustrate how scaling theory might be applied to new challenges. For example, warming can alter species interactions and food-web structure and can also reduce total animal biomass supportable by a given amount of primary production by increasing animal metabolism and energetic demand. Additionally, within a species, larval development is faster in warmer water, potentially influencing dispersal and other demographic processes like population connectivity and gene flow. These predictions can be extended further to address major questions in marine ecology, and present an opportunity for conceptual unification of marine ecological research across levels of biological organization. Drawing on work by ecologists and oceanographers over the last century, a metabolic scaling approach represents a promising way forward for applying ecological understanding to basic questions as well as conservation challenges.

A framework for integrating thermal biology into fragmentation research

Habitat fragmentation changes thermal conditions in remnant patches, and thermal conditions strongly influence organism morphology, distribution, and activity patterns. However, few studies explore temperature as a mechanism driving ecological responses to fragmentation. Here we offer a conceptual framework that integrates thermal biology into fragmentation research to better understand individual, species, community, and ecosystem-level responses to fragmentation. Specifically, the framework addresses how fragmentation changes temperature and how the effects of those temperature changes spread through the ecosystem, from organism response via thermal sensitivity, to changes in species distribution and activity patterns, to shifts in community structure following species' responses, and ultimately to changes in ecosystem functions. We place a strong emphasis on future research directions by outlining "Critical gaps" for each step of the framework. Empirical efforts to apply and test this framework promise new understanding of fragmentation's ecological consequences and new strategies for conservation in an increasingly fragmented and warmer world.

How mathematical epidemiology became a field of biology: a commentary on Anderson and May (1981) 'The population dynamics of microparasites and their invertebrate hosts'

We discuss the context, content and importance of the paper ‘The population dynamics of microparasites and their invertebrate hosts’, by R. M. Anderson and R. M. May, published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society as a stand-alone issue in 1981. We do this from the broader perspective of the study of infectious disease dynamics, rather than the specific perspective of the dynamics of insect pathogens. We argue that their 1981 paper fits seamlessly in the systematic study of infectious disease dynamics that was initiated by the authors in 1978, combining effective use of simple mathematical models, firmly rooted in biology, with observable or empirically measurable ingredients and quantities, and promoting extensive capacity building. This systematic approach, taking ecology and biology rather than applied mathematics as the motivation for advance, proved essential for the maturation of the field, and culminated in their landmark textbook of 1991. This commentary was written to celebrate the 350th anniversary of the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.

Deterministic Factors Overwhelm Stochastic Environmental Fluctuations as Drivers of Jellyfish Outbreaks

Jellyfish outbreaks are increasingly viewed as a deterministic response to escalating levels of environmental degradation and climate extremes. However, a comprehensive understanding of the influence of deterministic drivers and stochastic environmental variations favouring population renewal processes has remained elusive. This study quantifies the deterministic and stochastic components of environmental change that lead to outbreaks of the jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca in the Mediterranen Sea. Using data of jellyfish abundance collected at 241 sites along the Catalan coast from 2007 to 2010 we: (1) tested hypotheses about the influence of time-varying and spatial predictors of jellyfish outbreaks; (2) evaluated the relative importance of stochastic vs. deterministic forcing of outbreaks through the environmental bootstrap method; and (3) quantified return times of extreme events. Outbreaks were common in May and June and less likely in other summer months, which resulted in a negative relationship between outbreaks and SST. Cross- and along-shore advection by geostrophic flow were important concentrating forces of jellyfish, but most outbreaks occurred in the proximity of two canyons in the northern part of the study area. This result supported the recent hypothesis that canyons can funnel P. noctiluca blooms towards shore during upwelling. This can be a general, yet unappreciated mechanism leading to outbreaks of holoplanktonic jellyfish species. The environmental bootstrap indicated that stochastic environmental fluctuations have negligible effects on return times of outbreaks. Our analysis emphasized the importance of deterministic processes leading to jellyfish outbreaks compared to the stochastic component of environmental variation. A better understanding of how environmental drivers affect demographic and population processes in jellyfish species will increase the ability to anticipate jellyfish outbreaks in the future.

Ecological turmoil in evolutionary dynamics of plant-insect interactions: defense to offence

Available history manifests contemporary diversity that exists in plant-insect interactions. A radical thinking is necessary for developing strategies that can co-opt natural insect-plant mutualism, ecology and environmental safety for crop protection since current agricultural practices can reduce species richness and evenness. The global environmental changes, such as increased temperature, CO₂ and ozone levels, biological invasions, land-use change and habitat fragmentation together play a significant role in re-shaping the plant-insect multi-trophic interactions. Diverse natural products need to be studied and explored for their biological functions as insect pest control agents. In order to assure the success of an integrated pest management strategy, human activities need to be harmonized to minimize the global climate changes. Plant-insect interaction is one of the most primitive and co-evolved associations, often influenced by surrounding changes. In this review, we account the persistence and evolution of plant-insect interactions, with particular focus on the effect of climate change and human interference on these interactions. Plants and insects have been maintaining their existence through a mutual service-resource relationship while defending themselves. We provide a comprehensive catalog of various defense strategies employed by the plants and/or insects. Furthermore, several important factors such as accelerated diversification, imbalance in the mutualism, and chemical arms race between plants and insects as indirect consequences of human practices are highlighted. Inappropriate implementation of several modern agricultural practices has resulted in (i) endangered mutualisms, (ii) pest status and resistance in insects and (iii) ecological instability. Moreover, altered environmental conditions eventually triggered the resetting of plant-insect interactions. Hence, multitrophic approaches that can harmonize human activities and minimize their interference in native plant-insect interactions are needed to maintain natural balance between the existence of plants and insects.

Effects of Temperature on Development and Survival of Orthopygia glaucinalis (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) Reared on Platycarya strobilacea

The larvae of Orthopygia glaucinalis (L.) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) are used to produce insect tea in Guizhou, China. We investigated the development and survival of O. glaucinalis reared on dried leaves of Platycarya strobilacea under laboratory conditions at 19, 22, 25, 28, 31, 34, and 37°C. The duration of development from egg deposition to adult emergence decreased significantly with increasing temperature from 19 to 31°C, whereas the duration of egg and overall development significantly increased at 34°C. Based on the extreme-value distribution function, the optimal temperature for survival of overall development was 24.89°C, and the larval stage was most susceptible to temperature extremes. The common linear model and the Ikemoto and Takai linear model were used to determine the relationship between temperature and the developmental rate, and estimated the low-temperature threshold (11.44 and 11.62°C, respectively) and the threshold constant (1220.70 and 1203.58 degree-days, respectively) of O. glaucinalis. Nonlinear models were used to assess in fitting the experiment data and to estimate the high temperature thresholds (34.00 to 39.08°C) and optimal temperatures (31.61 to 33.45°C). An intrinsic optimal temperature of 24.18°C was estimated for overall development using the Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto (SSI) model. Model-averaged parameter estimates and the unconditional standard error were also estimated for the temperature thresholds. Based on the biological parameters and model selection, we concluded that common linear, Lactin-1, and SSI models performed better for predicting the temperature-dependent development of O. glaucinalis. Our findings enable breeders to optimize the developmental rate of O. glaucinalis and improve the yield of insect tea.

Effects of Temperature on the Age-Stage, Two-Sex Life Table of Bradysia odoriphaga (Diptera: Sciaridae)

The demographics of Bradysia odoriphaga were examined with an age-stage, two-sex life table that was developed at 15, 20, 25, and 30°C under controlled conditions. The intrinsic rate of increase and mean generation time were 0.0574 and 48.08 d at 15°C, 0.1175 and 30.09 d at 20°C, 0.1369 and 26.31 d at 25°C, and 0.1247 and 26.55 d at 30°C, respectively. The gross reproductive rate (GRR), the net reproductive rate (R0), and the pre-adult survivorship (la) were consistent with the relationship R0<la×GRR<GRR. Development was slower at 15°C than at the other temperatures. The mean duration of the total pre-adult stages was 38.01, 27.62, 23.74, and 24.10 d at 15, 20, 25, and 30°C, respectively. The highest values for the intrinsic rate of increase, finite rate of increase, and fecundity (0.1369 d(-1), 1.147 d(-1), and 50.53 eggs, respectively) and the shortest mean generation time were at 25°C. Still, B. odoriphaga was able to develop, survive, and reproduce across the entire temperature range (15-30°C). This study provides insight into the temperature-dependent phenology of B. odoriphaga and will contribute to the modeling of its population dynamics and to its management in the field.