Why infectious disease research needs community ecology

Phylogenetic relationships and species composition of host community influence the transmission of coronaviruses in sympatric bats

Since the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2002, bats have been recognized as important reservoirs of diverse coronaviruses (CoVs). Despite extensive research on the broad geographic transmission of bat CoVs, there is a notable gap in understanding the transmission dynamics within sympatric bat communities. Using a phylogeographic Bayesian statistical framework, we examined CoV transmission patterns and their determinants in a region where four bat roosting caves coexist and CoVs circulate persistently. Our findings reveal that two subgenera of CoVs, α-CoVs and β-CoVs dominate different bat caves at varying times. Notably, β-CoVs show more frequent cross-species transmission events among the dominant reservoir hosts, bats of Rhinolophidae. Phylogenetic distance between host species emerges as the key influence factor of viral cross-species transmission, whereas cohabitation duration and the number of hosts sharing caves do not significantly influence viral transmission. In addition, we emphasize that the compositional similarity of species in the roosting caves is critical for the inter-cave transmission of bat-CoVs, rather than the distance between cave. These results provide novel insights into the complex transmission dynamics of bat CoVs within sympatric bat communities.

Resources Modulate Developmental Shifts but Not Infection Tolerance Upon Co-Infection in an Insect System

Energetic resources within organisms fuel both parasite growth and immune responses against them, but it is unclear whether energy allocation is sufficient to explain changes in infection outcomes under the threat of multiple parasites. We manipulated diet in flour beetles (Tribolium confusum) infected with two natural parasites and used a combination of transcriptomic and phenotypic assays to investigate the role of resources in shifting metabolic and immune responses after single and co-infection. Our results suggest that relatively benign, single-celled, eukaryotic gregarine parasites alter the within-host energetic environment and, by extension, juvenile development time, in a diet-dependent manner. While they do not affect host resistance to acute bacterial infection, the mRNA-seq results reveal that they stimulate the expression of an alternative set of immune genes and promote damage to the gut, ultimately contributing to reduced survival regardless of diet. Thus, energy allocation is not sufficient to explain the immunological contribution to co-infection outcomes, emphasising the importance of mechanistic insight for predicting the impact of co-infection across levels of biological organisation.

Forest Fragmentation and Warmer Climate Increase Tick-Borne Disease Infection

Anthropogenic disturbances degrade ecosystems, elevating the risk of emerging infectious diseases from wildlife. However, the key environmental factors for preventing tick-borne disease infection in relation to host species, landscape components, and climate conditions remain unknown. This study focuses on identifying crucial environmental factors contributing to the outbreak of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), a tick-borne disease, in Miyazaki Prefecture, southern Japan. We collected data on SFTS case numbers, annual temperature and precipitation, species richness of large- and middle-sized mammals, forest perimeter length (indicating the amount of forest boundaries), percentage of agricultural land, human population, and sightseeing place numbers for each 25 km2 grid cell encompassing Miyazaki Prefecture. Through the construction of a model incorporating these factors, we found that longer forest perimeter and higher temperature led to a higher number of SFTS cases. Precipitation, mammal species richness, percentage of agricultural land, human population, and sightseeing point numbers had no effect on SFTS case numbers. In conclusion, climate condition and forest fragmentation, which increase the opportunity for human infection, played a pivotal role in SFTS outbreak.

WITHDRAWN: MHC-B Diversity and Signs of Respiratory Illness in Wild, East African Chimpanzees ( Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii )

bioRxiv has withdrawn this preprint following a formal investigation by the University of New Mexico Office of Research Integrity and Compliance.

Alterations and resilience of intestinal microbiota to increased water temperature are accompanied by the recovery of immune function in Nile tilapia

In the context of ongoing global warming, fish, as aquatic ectotherms, are highly vulnerable to increased water temperature caused by climate change and extreme heatwaves because of their inability to maintain their body temperature. After prolonged coevolution, the intestinal microbiota has become an integral part of fish and plays a pivotal role in immunity and metabolism. To date, however, little is known about the effects of increased water temperature on the intestinal microbiota of fish, particularly the intestinal mucosa-associated microbiota. Here, we investigated the variation patterns of the intestinal microbiota and immune status in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus; 125.02 ± 4.55 g) under increased water temperature. The results showed that the microbial diversity, structure, dominant microbes, and predicted function of fish intestinal microbiota were resilient to low-level warming (increasing by 2 °C) but not to high-level warming (increasing by 8 °C) and that fish immune parameters (serum lysozyme content and bactericidal activity) recovered simultaneously. Notably, along with compromised immune function, short-term warming (7 days) drove a significant increase in the microbial richness and diversity of fish intestinal mucosae, in which the overgrowth of opportunistic pathogens such as Romboutsia ilealis, Escherichia-Shigella, Fusobacterium, Streptococcus, Acinetobacter, and Enterobacter inhibited the colonization of potential probiotics such as Cetobacterium, ultimately resulting in a significant reduction in metabolic pathways and a significant increase in the potentially pathogenic phenotype. After long-term warming (37 days), the above alterations disappeared in low-level warming but remained in high-level warming. Critically, long-term warming disrupted the network complexity and stability of the intestinal mucosa- and digesta-associated microbiota to different extents. Collectively, this study revealed that the alterations and resilience of intestinal microbiota to increased water temperature coincided with the recovery of immune function in fish. Our findings extend the understanding of how the intestinal microbiota in aquatic ectotherms respond to increased water temperature, providing important implications for harnessing the potential benefits of host-associated microorganisms to enhance their resilience to climate change.

Evidence for the Vacated Niche Hypothesis in Parasites of Invasive Mammals

Species redistribution and invasion are becoming increasingly common due to climate change and anthropogenic impacts. Understanding the resultant shifts in host-parasite associations is important for anticipating disruptions to host communities, disease cycles, and conservation efforts. In this paper, we bring together the enemy release and vacated niche hypotheses to relate parasite acquisition and retention, two distinct yet intertwined processes that play out during host invasion. Using the Global Mammal Parasite Database, we test for net enemy release based on differences in parasite species richness, and we develop a novel taxonomic null modeling approach to demonstrate that parasites fill vacated niches. We find evidence of net enemy release, and our taxonomic null models indicate replacement of lost parasites by taxonomically similar acquired ones, over and above what might be expected by chance. Our work suggests that both enemy release and vacated niche hypotheses provide valuable frameworks through which to understand and predict changing host-parasite associations, which may include insights on how climate change and anthropogenic influences perturb and reorganize communities and ecosystems.

Scaling up to understand disease risk: distinct roles of host functional traits in shaping infection risk of avian malaria across different scales

Understanding the impacts of diversity on pathogen transmission is essential for public health and biological conservation. However, how the outcome and mechanisms of the diversity-disease relationship vary across biological scales in natural systems remains elusive. In addition, although the role of host functional traits has long been established in disease ecology, its integration into the diversity-disease relationship largely falls behind. By examining avian haemosporidians of 1101 birds from 86 species, we investigated how host functional traits and diversity may shape infection risk across individual and community levels. We found that host traits affect individual-level infection risk but fail to scale up the effect to the community level when testing community-weighted means. Moreover, functional divergence reduced community-level infection risk, indicating the dilution effect of functional diversity. Host richness also showed dilution effect at the community level, but not individual level for one parasite genus, suggesting that the dilution mechanism results from the aggregation of non-competent hosts into richer communities. These results demonstrate that the outcome and mechanism of diversity-disease relationship depend on biological scale, and aggregating observations may cause biased evidence and misattributed mechanisms. Overall, our work suppports the integration of trait-based ecology to further understand the diversity-disease relationship across biological scales.

Integrating animal welfare into the WHO pandemic treaty: a thematic analysis of civil society perspectives and comparison with treaty drafting

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed critical weaknesses in the global health system, highlighting the urgent need for a coordinated international approach to pandemic prevention and management. As negotiations for a new WHO pandemic treaty progress, the effective integration of animal welfare is crucial. This paper aims to investigate the perspectives of key civil society organizations on the integration of animal welfare provisions into the pandemic treaty. Through a thematic analysis of documents prepared by FOUR PAWS, Wildlife Conservation Society, and Action for Animal Health between 2020-2023, five major themes are identified: prevention of zoonotic spillover, One Health approach, animal health systems and infrastructure, sustainable and ethical animal management practices, and policy coherence and governance. A comparative analysis of these themes against the April 2024 draft of the pandemic treaty reveals areas of alignment and divergence. Due to the ongoing controversies and the need for further improvements, the WHO's intergovernmental negotiating body was unable to finalize the treaty text for the 77th World Health Assembly in May 2024, leading to an extended mandate until 2025. Based on the findings, the paper proposes recommendations to strengthen the integration of animal welfare into the treaty, arguing that incorporating these recommendations is critical for developing a transformative, equitable, and effective treaty that addresses the systemic drivers of pandemic risk.

Ecological and evolutionary perspectives advance understanding of mycobacterial diseases

Predicting the outbreak of infectious diseases and designing appropriate preventive health actions require interdisciplinary research into the processes that drive exposure to and transmission of disease agents. In the case of mycobacterial diseases, the epidemiological understanding of the scientific community hitherto was based on the clinical studies of infections in vertebrates. To evaluate the information gained by comprehensively accounting for the ecological and evolutionary constraints, we conducted literature searches assessing the role of mycobacteria interactions with non-vertebrate species in the origin of their pathogenicity and variations in disease risk. The reviewed literature challenges the current theory of person-to-person transmission for several mycobacterial infections. Furthermore, the findings suggest that diverse non-vertebrate organisms influence virulence, mediate transmission, and contribute to pathogen abundance in relation to vertebrate exposure. We advocate that an ecological and evolutionary framework provides novel insights to support a more comprehensive understanding of the prevention and management of diseases in vertebrates.

Predicting and Prioritising Community Assembly: Learning Outcomes via Experiments

Community assembly provides the foundation for applications in biodiversity conservation, climate change, invasion, restoration and synthetic ecology. However, predicting and prioritising assembly outcomes remains difficult. We address this challenge via a mechanism-free approach useful when little data or knowledge exist (LOVE; Learning Outcomes Via Experiments). We carry out assembly experiments ('actions', here, random combinations of species additions) potentially in multiple environments, wait, and measure abundance outcomes. We then train a model to predict outcomes of novel actions or prioritise actions that would yield the most desirable outcomes. Across 10 single- and multi-environment datasets, when trained on 89 randomly selected actions, LOVE predicts outcomes with 0.5%-3.4% mean error, and prioritises actions for maximising richness, maximising abundance, or removing unwanted species, with 94%-99% mean true positive rate and 10%-84% mean true negative rate across tasks. LOVE complements existing mechanism-first approaches for community ecology and may help address numerous applied challenges.

Is the local environment more important than within-host interactions in determining coinfection?

Host populations often vary in the magnitude of coinfection they experience across environmental gradients. Furthermore, coinfection often occurs sequentially, with a second parasite infecting the host after the first has established a primary infection. Because the local environment and interactions between coinfecting parasites can both drive patterns of coinfection, it is important to disentangle the relative contributions of environmental factors and within-host interactions to patterns of coinfection. Here, we develop a conceptual framework and present an empirical case study to disentangle these facets of coinfection. Across multiple lakes, we surveyed populations of five damselfly (host) species and quantified primary parasitism by aquatic, ectoparasitic water mites and secondary parasitism by terrestrial, endoparasitic gregarines. We first asked if coinfection is predicted by abiotic and biotic factors within the local environment, finding that the probability of coinfection decreased for all host species as pH increased. We then asked if primary infection by aquatic water mites mediated the relationship between pH and secondary infection by terrestrial gregarines. Contrary to our expectations, we found no evidence for a water mite-mediated relationship between pH and gregarines. Instead, the intensity of gregarine infection correlated solely with the local environment, with the magnitude and direction of these relationships varying among environmental predictors. Our findings emphasize the role of the local environment in shaping infection dynamics that set the stage for coinfection. Although we did not detect within-host interactions, the approach herein can be applied to other systems to elucidate the nature of interactions between hosts and coinfecting parasites within complex ecological communities.

A systematic review and guide for using multi-response statistical models in co-infection research

The simultaneous infection of organisms with two or more co-occurring pathogens, otherwise known as co-infections, concomitant infections or multiple infections, plays a significant role in the dynamics and consequences of infectious diseases in both humans and animals. To understand co-infections, ecologists and epidemiologists rely on models capable of accommodating multiple response variables. However, given the diversity of available approaches, choosing a model that is suitable for drawing meaningful conclusions from observational data is not a straightforward task. To provide clearer guidance for statistical model use in co-infection research, we conducted a systematic review to (i) understand the breadth of study goals and host-pathogen systems being pursued with multi-response models and (ii) determine the degree of crossover of knowledge among disciplines. In total, we identified 69 peer-reviewed primary studies that jointly measured infection patterns with two or more pathogens of humans or animals in natural environments. We found stark divisions in research objectives and methods among different disciplines, suggesting that cross-disciplinary insights into co-infection patterns and processes for different human and animal contexts are currently limited. Citation network analysis also revealed limited knowledge exchange between ecology and epidemiology. These findings collectively highlight the need for greater interdisciplinary collaboration for improving disease management.

Resources modulate developmental shifts but not infection tolerance upon coinfection in an insect system

Energetic resources fuel immune responses and parasite growth within organisms, but it is unclear whether energy allocation is sufficient to explain changes in infection outcomes under the threat of multiple parasites. We manipulated diet in flour beetles (Tribolium confusum) infected with two natural parasites to investigate the role of resources in shifting metabolic and immune responses after single and co-infection. Our results suggest that gregarine parasites alter the within-host energetic environment, and by extension juvenile development time, in a diet-dependent manner. Gregarines do not affect host resistance to acute bacterial infection but do stimulate the expression of an alternative set of immune genes and promote damage to the gut, ultimately contributing to reduced survival regardless of diet. Thus, energy allocation is not sufficient to explain the immunological contribution to coinfection outcomes, emphasizing the importance of mechanistic insight for predicting the impact of coinfection across levels of biological organization.

A One Health framework for exploring zoonotic interactions demonstrated through a case study

The eco-epidemiology of zoonoses is often oversimplified to host-pathogen interactions while findings derived from global datasets are rarely directly transferable to smaller-scale contexts. Through a systematic literature search, we compiled a dataset of naturally occurring zoonotic interactions in Austria, spanning 1975-2022. We introduce the concept of zoonotic web to describe the complex relationships between zoonotic agents, their hosts, vectors, food, and environmental sources. The zoonotic web was explored through network analysis. After controlling for research effort, we demonstrate that, within the projected unipartite source-source network of zoonotic agent sharing, the most influential zoonotic sources are human, cattle, chicken, and some meat products. Analysis of the One Health 3-cliques (triangular sets of nodes representing human, animal, and environment) confirms the increased probability of zoonotic spillover at human-cattle and human-food interfaces. We characterise six communities of zoonotic agent sharing, which assembly patterns are likely driven by highly connected infectious agents in the zoonotic web, proximity to human, and anthropogenic activities. Additionally, we report a frequency of emerging zoonotic diseases in Austria of one every six years. Here, we present a flexible network-based approach that offers insights into zoonotic transmission chains, facilitating the development of locally-relevant One Health strategies against zoonoses.

Effects of predation risk on parasite-host interactions and wildlife diseases

Landscapes of fear can determine the dynamics of entire ecosystems. In response to perceived predation risk, prey can show physiological, behavioral, or morphological trait changes to avoid predation. This in turn can indirectly affect other species by modifying species interactions (e.g., altered feeding), with knock-on effects, such as trophic cascades, on the wider ecosystem. While such indirect effects stemming from the fear of predation have received extensive attention for herbivore-plant and predator-prey interactions, much less is known about how they alter parasite-host interactions and wildlife diseases. In this synthesis, we present a conceptual framework for how predation risk-as perceived by organisms that serve as hosts-can affect parasite-host interactions, with implications for infectious disease dynamics. By basing our approach on recent conceptual advances with respect to predation risk effects, we aim to expand this general framework to include parasite-host interactions and diseases. We further identify pathways through which parasite-host interactions can be affected, for example, through altered parasite avoidance behavior or tolerance of hosts to infections, and discuss the wider relevance of predation risk for parasite and host populations, including heuristic projections to population-level dynamics. Finally, we highlight the current unknowns, specifically the quantitative links from individual-level processes to population dynamics and community structure, and emphasize approaches to address these knowledge gaps.

How do host population dynamics impact Lyme disease risk dynamics in theoretical models?

Lyme disease is the most common wildlife-to-human transmitted disease reported in North America. The study of this disease requires an understanding of the ecology of the complex communities of ticks and host species involved in harboring and transmitting this disease. Much of the ecology of this system is well understood, such as the life cycle of ticks, and how hosts are able to support tick populations and serve as disease reservoirs, but there is much to be explored about how the population dynamics of different host species and communities impact disease risk to humans. In this study, we construct a stage-structured, empirically-informed model with host dynamics to investigate how host population dynamics can affect disease risk to humans. The model describes a tick population and a simplified community of three host species, where primary nymph host populations are made to fluctuate on an annual basis, as commonly observed in host populations. We tested the model under different environmental conditions to examine the effect of environment on the interactions of host dynamics and disease risk. Results show that allowing for host dynamics in the model reduces mean nymphal infection prevalence and increases the maximum annual prevalence of nymphal infection and the density of infected nymphs. Effects of host dynamics on disease measures of nymphal infection prevalence were nonlinear and patterns in the effect of dynamics on amplitude in nymphal infection prevalence varied across environmental conditions. These results highlight the importance of further study of the effect of community dynamics on disease risk. This will involve the construction of further theoretical models and collection of robust field data to inform these models. With a more complete understanding of disease dynamics we can begin to better determine how to predict and manage disease risk using these models.

Modelling dynamics between free-living amoebae and bacteria

Free-living amoebae (FLA) serve as hosts for a variety of endosymbionts, which are microorganisms that reside and multiply within the FLA. Some of these endosymbionts pose a pathogenic threat to humans, animals, or both. The symbiotic relationship with FLA not only offers these microorganisms protection but also enhances their survival outside their hosts and assists in their dispersal across diverse habitats, thereby escalating disease transmission. This review is intended to offer an exhaustive overview of the existing mathematical models that have been applied to understand the dynamics of FLA, especially concerning their interactions with bacteria. An extensive literature review was conducted across Google Scholar, PubMed, and Scopus databases to identify mathematical models that describe the dynamics of interactions between FLA and bacteria, as published in peer-reviewed scientific journals. The literature search revealed several FLA-bacteria model systems, including Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Pasteurella multocida, and Legionella spp. Although the published mathematical models account for significant system dynamics such as predator-prey relationships and non-linear growth rates, they generally overlook spatial and temporal heterogeneity in environmental conditions, such as temperature, and population diversity. Future mathematical models will need to incorporate these factors to enhance our understanding of FLA-bacteria dynamics and to provide valuable insights for future risk assessment and disease control measures.

Bat species assemblage predicts coronavirus prevalence

Anthropogenic disturbances and the subsequent loss of biodiversity are altering species abundances and communities. Since species vary in their pathogen competence, spatio-temporal changes in host assemblages may lead to changes in disease dynamics. We explore how longitudinal changes in bat species assemblages affect the disease dynamics of coronaviruses (CoVs) in more than 2300 cave-dwelling bats captured over two years from five caves in Ghana. This reveals uneven CoV infection patterns between closely related species, with the alpha-CoV 229E-like and SARS-related beta-CoV 2b emerging as multi-host pathogens. Prevalence and infection likelihood for both phylogenetically distinct CoVs is influenced by the abundance of competent species and naïve subadults. Broadly, bat species vary in CoV competence, and highly competent species are more common in less diverse communities, leading to increased CoV prevalence in less diverse bat assemblages. In line with the One Health framework, our work supports the notion that biodiversity conservation may be the most proactive measure to prevent the spread of pathogens with zoonotic potential.

Landscape level associations between birds, mosquitoes and microclimates: possible consequences for disease transmission?

BACKGROUND

Mosquito-borne diseases are on the rise. While climatic factors have been linked to disease occurrences, they do not explain the non-random spatial distribution in disease outbreaks. Landscape-related factors, such as vegetation structure, likely play a crucial but hitherto unquantified role.

METHODS

We explored how three critically important factors that are associated with mosquito-borne disease outbreaks: microclimate, mosquito abundance and bird communities, vary at the landscape scale. We compared the co-occurrence of these three factors in two contrasting habitat types (forest versus grassland) across five rural locations in the central part of the Netherlands between June and September 2021.

RESULTS

Our results show that forest patches provide a more sheltered microclimate, and a higher overall abundance of birds. When accounting for differences in landscape characteristics, we also observed that the number of mosquitoes was higher in isolated forest patches.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that, at the landscape scale, variation in tree cover coincides with suitable microclimate and high Culex pipiens and bird abundance. Overall, these factors can help understand the non-random spatial distribution of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks.

Diverging effects of host density and richness across biological scales drive diversity-disease outcomes

Understanding how biodiversity affects pathogen transmission remains an unresolved question due to the challenges in testing potential mechanisms in natural systems and how these mechanisms vary across biological scales. By quantifying transmission of an entire guild of parasites (larval trematodes) within 902 amphibian host communities, we show that the community-level drivers of infection depend critically on biological scale. At the individual host scale, increases in host richness led to fewer parasites per host for all parasite taxa, with no effect of host or predator densities. At the host community scale, however, the inhibitory effects of richness were counteracted by associated increases in total host density, leading to no overall change in parasite densities. Mechanistically, we find that while average host competence declined with increasing host richness, total community competence remained stable due to additive assembly patterns. These results help reconcile disease-diversity debates by empirically disentangling the roles of alternative ecological drivers of parasite transmission and how such effects depend on biological scale.

Impact of vector richness on the risk of vector-borne disease: The role of vector competence

A central goal of disease ecology is to identify the factors that drive the spread of infectious diseases. Changes in vector richness can have complex effects on disease risk, but little is known about the role of vector competence in the relationship between vector richness and disease risk. In this study, we firstly investigated the combined effects of vector competence, interspecific competition, and feeding interference on disease risk through a two-vector, one-host SIR-SI model, and obtained threshold conditions for the occurrence of dilution and amplification effects. Secondly, we extended the above model to the case of N vectors and assumed that all vectors were homogeneous to obtain analytic expressions for disease risk. It was found that in the two-vector model, disease risk declined more rapidly as interspecific competition of the high-competence vector increased. When vector richness increases, the positive effects of adding a high-competence vector species on disease transmission may outweigh the negative effects of feeding interference due to increased vector richness, making an amplification effect more likely to occur. While the addition of a highly competitive vector species may exacerbate the negative effects of feeding interference, making a dilution effect more likely to occur. In the N-vector model, the effect of increased vector richness on disease risk was fully driven by the strength of feeding interference and interspecific competition, and changes in vector competence only quantitatively but not qualitatively altered the vector richness-disease risk relationship. This work clarifies the role of vector competence in the relationship between vector richness and disease risk and provides a new perspective for studying the diversity-disease relationship. It also provides theoretical guidance for vector management and disease prevention strategies.

Effects of plant tissue permeability on invasion and population bottlenecks of a phytopathogen

Pathogen genetic diversity varies in response to environmental changes. However, it remains unclear whether plant barriers to invasion could be considered a genetic bottleneck for phytopathogen populations. Here, we implement a barcoding approach to generate a pool of 90 isogenic and individually barcoded Ralstonia solanacearum strains. We used 90 of these strains to inoculate tomato plants with different degrees of physical permeability to invasion (intact roots, wounded roots and xylem inoculation) and quantify the phytopathogen population dynamics during invasion. Our results reveal that the permeability of plant roots impacts the degree of population bottleneck, genetic diversity, and composition of Ralstonia populations. We also find that selection is the main driver structuring pathogen populations when barriers to infection are less permeable, i.e., intact roots, the removal of root physical and immune barriers results in the predominance of stochasticity in population assembly. Taken together, our study suggests that plant root permeability constitutes a bottleneck for phytopathogen invasion and genetic diversity.

Host and parasite identity interact in scale-dependent fashion to determine parasite community structure

Understanding the ecological assembly of parasite communities is critical to characterise how changing host and environmental landscapes will alter infection dynamics and outcomes. However, studies frequently assume that (a) closely related parasite species or those with identical life-history strategies are functionally equivalent, and (b) the same factors will drive infection dynamics for a single parasite across multiple host species, oversimplifying community assembly patterns. Here, we challenge these two assumptions using a naturally occurring host-parasite system, with the mussel Anodonta anatina infected by the digenean trematode Echinoparyphium recurvatum, and the snail Viviparus viviparus infected by both E. recurvatum and Echinostoma sp. By analysing the impact of temporal parasite dispersal, host species and size, and the impact of coinfection (moving from broader environmental factors to within-host dynamics), we show that neither assumption holds true, but at different ecological scales. The assumption that closely related parasites can be functionally grouped is challenged when considering dispersal to the host (i.e. larger scales), while the assumption that the same factors will drive infection dynamics for a single parasite across multiple host species is challenged when considering within-host interspecific competition (i.e. smaller scales). Our results demonstrate that host identity, parasite identity and ecological scale require simultaneous consideration in studies of parasite community composition and transmission.

Interactive effects of climate, land use and soil type on Culex pipiens/torrentium abundance

The incidence and risk of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in Northwestern Europe has increased over the last few decades. Understanding the underlying environmental drivers of mosquito population dynamics helps to adequately assess mosquito-borne disease risk. While previous studies have focussed primarily on the effects of climatic conditions (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and/or local environmental conditions individually, it remains unclear how climatic conditions interact with local environmental factors such as land use and soil type, and how these subsequently affect mosquito abundance. Here, we set out to study the interactive effects of land use, soil type and climatic conditions on the abundance of Culex pipiens/torrentium, highly abundant vectors of West Nile virus and Usutu virus. Mosquitoes were sampled at 14 sites throughout the Netherlands. At each site, weekly mosquito collections were carried out between early July and mid-October 2020 and 2021. To assess the effect of the aforementioned environmental factors, we performed a series of generalized linear mixed models and non-parametric statistical tests. Our results show that mosquito abundance and species richness consistently differ among land use- and soil types, with peri-urban areas with peat/clay soils having the highest Cx. pipiens/torrentium abundance and sandy rural areas having the lowest. Furthermore, we observed differences in precipitation-mediated effects on Cx. pipiens/torrentium abundance between (peri-)urban and other land uses and soil types. In contrast, effects of temperature on Cx. pipiens/torrentium abundance remain similar between different land use and soil types. Our study highlights the importance of both land use and soil type in conjunction with climatic conditions for understanding mosquito abundances. Particularly in relation to rainfall events, land use and soil type has a marked effect on mosquito abundance. These findings underscore the importance of local environmental parameters for studies focusing on predicting or mitigating disease risk.

Experimental assessment of cross-species transmission in a natural multihost-multivector-multipathogen community

Vector-borne pathogens, many of which cause major suffering worldwide, often circulate in diverse wildlife communities comprising multiple reservoir host and/or vector species. However, the complexities of these systems make it challenging to determine the contributions these different species make to transmission. We experimentally manipulated transmission within a natural multihost-multipathogen-multivector system, by blocking flea-borne pathogen transmission from either of two co-occurring host species (bank voles and wood mice). Through genetic analysis of the resulting infections in the hosts and vectors, we show that both host species likely act together to maintain the overall flea community, but cross-species pathogen transmission is relatively rare-most pathogens were predominantly found in only one host species, and there were few cases where targeted treatment affected pathogens in the other host species. However, we do provide experimental evidence of some reservoir-spillover dynamics whereby reductions of some infections in one host species are achieved by blocking transmission from the other host species. Overall, despite the apparent complexity of such systems, we show there can be 'covert simplicity', whereby pathogen transmission is primarily dominated by single host species, potentially facilitating the targeting of key hosts for control, even in diverse ecological communities.

Interspecific Host Variation and Biotic Interactions Drive Pathogen Community Assembly in Chinese Bumblebees

Bumblebees have been considered one of the most important pollinators on the planet. However, recent reports of bumblebee decline have raised concern about a significant threat to ecosystem stability. Infectious diseases caused by multiple pathogen infections have been increasingly recognized as an important mechanism behind this decline worldwide. Understanding the determining factors that influence the assembly and composition of pathogen communities among bumblebees can provide important implications for predicting infectious disease dynamics and making effective conservation policies. Here, we study the relative importance of biotic interactions versus interspecific host resistance in shaping the pathogen community composition of bumblebees in China. We first conducted a comprehensive survey of 13 pathogens from 22 bumblebee species across China. We then applied joint species distribution modeling to assess the determinants of pathogen community composition and examine the presence and strength of pathogen-pathogen associations. We found that host species explained most of the variations in pathogen occurrences and composition, suggesting that host specificity was the most important variable in predicting pathogen occurrences and community composition in bumblebees. Moreover, we detected both positive and negative associations among pathogens, indicating the role of competition and facilitation among pathogens in determining pathogen community assembly. Our research demonstrates the power of a pluralistic framework integrating field survey of bumblebee pathogens with community ecology frameworks to understand the underlying mechanisms of pathogen community assembly.

An Analytical Approach for Temporal Infection Mapping and Composite Index Development

Significant and composite indices for infectious disease can have implications for developing interventions and public health. This paper presents an investment for developing access to further analysis of the incidence of individual and multiple diseases. This research mainly comprises two steps: first, an automatic and reproducible procedure based on functional data analysis techniques was proposed for analyzing the dynamic properties of each disease; second, orthogonal transformation was adopted for the development of composite indices. Between 2000 and 2019, nineteen class B notifiable diseases in China were collected for this study from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The study facilitates the probing of underlying information about the dynamics from discrete incidence rates of each disease through the procedure, and it is also possible to obtain similarities and differences about diseases in detail by combining the derivative features. There has been great success in intervening in the majority of notifiable diseases in China, like bacterial or amebic dysentery and epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, while more efforts are required for some diseases, like AIDS and virus hepatitis. The composite indices were able to reflect a more complex concept by combining individual incidences into a single value, providing a simultaneous reflection for multiple objects, and facilitating disease comparisons accordingly. For the notifiable diseases included in this study, there was superior management of gastro-intestinal infectious diseases and respiratory infectious diseases from the perspective of composite indices. This study developed a methodology for exploring the prevalent properties of infectious diseases. The development of effective and reliable analytical methods provides special insight into infectious diseases’ common dynamics and properties and has implications for the effective intervention of infectious diseases.

Electrochemical nucleic acid sensors: Competent pathways for mobile molecular diagnostics

Electrochemical nucleic acid biosensor has demonstrated great promise in clinical diagnostic tests, mainly because of its flexibility, high efficiency, low cost, and easy integration for analytical applications. Numerous nucleic acid hybridization-based strategies have been developed for the design and construction of novel electrochemical biosensors for diagnosing genetic-related diseases. This review describes the advances, challenges, and prospects of electrochemical nucleic acid biosensors for mobile molecular diagnosis. Specifically, the basic principles, sensing elements, applications in diagnosis of cancer and infectious diseases, integration with microfluidic technology and commercialization are mainly included in this review, aiming to provide new insights and directions for the future development of electrochemical nucleic acid biosensors.

Network Analysis of Hosts and Vectors in the Multiple Transmissions of Flavivirus

Background: It is well established that infection patterns in nature can be driven by host, vector, and symbiont communities. One of the first stages in understanding how these complex systems have influenced the incidence of vector-borne diseases is to recognize what are the major vertebrate (i.e., hosts) and invertebrate (i.e., vectors) host species that propagate those microbes. Such identification opens the possibility to identify such essential species to develop targeted preventive efforts. Methods: The goal of this study, which relies on a compilation of a global database based on published literature, is to identify relevant host species in the global transmission of mosquito-borne flaviviruses, such as West Nile virus, St. Louis virus, Dengue virus, and Zika virus, which pose a concern to animal and public health. Results: The analysis of the resulting database involving 1174 vertebrate host species and 46 reported vector species allowed us to establish association networks between these species. Three host species (Mus musculus, Sapajus flavius, Sapajus libidinosus, etc.) have a much larger centrality values, suggesting that they play a key role in flavivirus community interactions. Conclusion: The methods used and the species detected as relevant in the network provide new knowledge and consistency that could aid health officials in rethinking prevention and control strategies with a focus on viral communities and their interactions. Other infectious diseases that harm animal and human health could benefit from such network techniques.

The first arriving virus shapes within-host viral diversity during natural epidemics

Viral diversity has been discovered across scales from host individuals to populations. However, the drivers of viral community assembly are still largely unknown. Within-host viral communities are formed through co-infections, where the interval between the arrival times of viruses may vary. Priority effects describe the timing and order in which species arrive in an environment, and how early colonizers impact subsequent community assembly. To study the effect of the first-arriving virus on subsequent infection patterns of five focal viruses, we set up a field experiment using naïve Plantago lanceolata plants as sentinels during a seasonal virus epidemic. Using joint species distribution modelling, we find both positive and negative effects of early season viral infection on late season viral colonization patterns. The direction of the effect depends on both the host genotype and which virus colonized the host early in the season. It is well established that co-occurring viruses may change the virulence and transmission of viral infections. However, our results show that priority effects may also play an important, previously unquantified role in viral community assembly. The assessment of these temporal dynamics within a community ecological framework will improve our ability to understand and predict viral diversity in natural systems.

Mosquito community composition shapes virus prevalence patterns along anthropogenic disturbance gradients

Previously unknown pathogens often emerge from primary ecosystems, but there is little knowledge on the mechanisms of emergence. Most studies analyzing the influence of land-use change on pathogen emergence focus on a single host-pathogen system and often observe contradictory effects. Here, we studied virus diversity and prevalence patterns in natural and disturbed ecosystems using a multi-host and multi-taxa approach. Mosquitoes sampled along a disturbance gradient in Côte d'Ivoire were tested by generic RT-PCR assays established for all major arbovirus and insect-specific virus taxa including novel viruses previously discovered in these samples based on cell culture isolates enabling an unbiased and comprehensive approach. The taxonomic composition of detected viruses was characterized and viral infection rates according to habitat and host were analyzed. We detected 331 viral sequences pertaining to 34 novel and 15 previously identified viruses of the families Flavi-, Rhabdo-, Reo-, Toga-, Mesoni- and Iflaviridae and the order Bunyavirales. Highest host and virus diversity was observed in pristine and intermediately disturbed habitats. The majority of the 49 viruses was detected with low prevalence. However, nine viruses were found frequently across different habitats of which five viruses increased in prevalence towards disturbed habitats, in congruence with the dilution effect hypothesis. These viruses were mainly associated with one specific mosquito species (Culex nebulosus), which increased in relative abundance from pristine (3%) to disturbed habitats (38%). Interestingly, the observed increased prevalence of these five viruses in disturbed habitats was not caused by higher host infection rates but by increased host abundance, an effect tentatively named abundance effect. Our data show that host species composition is critical for virus abundance. Environmental changes that lead to an uneven host community composition and to more individuals of a single species are a key driver of virus emergence.

Biogeographic regionalization of human infectious diseases in Brazil based on geographically explicit data

OBJECTIVE

Biogeographic regionalization represents abstractions of the organisation of life on Earth, and can provide a large-scaled framework for health management and planning. We aimed at determining a biogeographic regionalization for human infectious diseases in Brazil, and at investigating non-mutually exclusive hypotheses predicting the observed regions.

METHODS

Based on the spatial distributions of 12 infectious diseases with mandatory notification (SINAN database, 2007-2020, n = 15,839), we identified regions through a clustering procedure based on beta-diversity turnover. The analysis was repeated 1000 times by randomly shuffling the rows (0.5° cells) in the original matrix. We evaluated the relative importance of variables using multinomial logistic regression models: contemporary climate (temperature and precipitation), human activity (population density and geographic accessibility), land cover (11 classes), and the full model (all variables). We refined the geographic boundaries of each cluster by polygonising their kernel densities to identify clusters' core zones.

RESULTS

The two-cluster solution showed the best correspondence between disease ranges and clusters geographic limits. The largest cluster occurred with more density in the central and northeastern regions, while the smaller and complementary cluster occurred in the south and southeastern region. The best model for explaining the regionalization was the full model, supporting the 'complex association hypothesis'. The heatmap showed a NE-S directional display of the cluster's densities, and core zones showed geographic correspondence with tropical + arid (NE) versus temperate (S) climates.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that there is a discernible latitudinal pattern in the turnover of disease in Brazil, and this phenomenon is associated with an intricate interplay between contemporary climate, population activity, and land cover. This generalised biogeographic pattern may offer the earliest insights into the geographic arrangement of diseases in the country. We suggested that the latitudinal pattern could be adopted as a nationwide framework for geographic vaccine allocation.

Responses to pathogen exposure in sentinel juvenile fall-run Chinook salmon in the Sacramento River, CA

This study investigated how the deployment of juvenile Chinook salmon in ambient river conditions and the subsequent exposure to and infection by pathogens was associated with the changes in the expression of genes involved in immune system functioning, general stress and host development. Juvenile fish were deployed in sentinel cages for 21 days in the Sacramento River, CA, USA. Gill, kidney and intestinal tissue were sampled at 0, 7, 14 and 21 days post-deployment. Pathogen detection and host response were assessed by a combination of molecular and histopathological evaluation. Our findings showed that fish became infected by the parasites Ceratonova shasta, Parvicapsula minibicornis and Ichthyophthirius multifiliis, and to a lesser extent, the bacteria Flavobacterium columnare and Rickettsia-like organisms. Co-infection was common among sentinel fish. Expression of investigated genes was altered following deployment and was often associated with pathogen abundance. This study provides a foundation for future avenues of research investigating pathogens that affect out-migrating Chinook salmon in the Sacramento River, and offers crucial knowledge related to conservation efforts.

Gastrointestinal Infection in South African Children under the Age of 5 years: A Mini Review

Objective

To estimate gastroenteritis disease and its etiological agents in children under the age of 5 years living in South Africa.

Methods

A mini literature review of pertinent articles published in ScienceDirect, PubMed, GoogleScholar, and Scopus was conducted using search terms: "Gastroenteritis in children," "Gastroenteritis in the world," Gastroenteritis in South Africa," "Prevalence of gastroenteritis," "Epidemiological surveillance of gastroenteritis in the world," and "Causes of gastroenteritis".

Results

A total of 174 published articles were included in this mini review. In the last 20 years, the mortality rate resulting from diarrhea in children under the age of 5 years has declined and this is influenced by improved hygiene practices, awareness programs, an improved water and sanitation supply, and the availability of vaccines. More modern genomic amplification techniques were used to re-analyze stool specimens collected from children in eight low-resource settings in Asia, South America, and Africa reported improved sensitivity of pathogen detection to about 65%, that viruses were the main etiological agents in patients with diarrhea aged from 0 to 11 months but that Shigella, followed by sapovirus and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli had a high incidence in children aged 12-24 months. In addition, co-infections were noted in nearly 10% of diarrhea cases, with rotavirus and Shigella being the main co-infecting agents together with adenovirus, enteropathogenic E. coli, Clostridium jejuni, or Clostridium coli.

Conclusions

This mini review outlines the epidemiology and trends relating to parasitic, viral, and bacterial agents responsible for gastroenteritis in children in South Africa. An increase in sequence-independent diagnostic approaches will improve the identification of pathogens to resolve undiagnosed cases of gastroenteritis. Emerging state and national surveillance systems should focus on improving the identification of gastrointestinal pathogens in children and the development of further vaccines against gastrointestinal pathogens.

Molecular Identification of Enteric Viruses in Domestic Animals in Northeastern Gabon, Central Africa

Astroviruses (AstVs), enteroviruses (EVs), and caliciviruses (CaVs) infect several vertebrate taxa. Transmitted through the fecal-oral route, these enteric viruses are highly resistant and can survive in the environment, thereby increasing their zoonotic potential. Here, we screened for AstVs, EVs, and CaVs to investigate the role of domestic animals in the emergence of zoonoses, because they are situated at the human/wildlife interface, particularly in rural forested areas in Central Africa. Rectal swabs were obtained from 123 goats, 41 sheep, and 76 dogs in 10 villages located in northeastern Gabon. Extracted RNA reverse-transcribed into cDNA was used to detect AstVs, EVs, and CaVs by amplification of the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), or capsid protein (VP1) gene using PCR. A total of 23 samples tested positive, including 17 goats for AstVs, 2 goats, 2 sheep, 1 dog for EVs, and 1 dog for CaVs. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that AstV RdRp sequences clustered with sheep-, goat-, or bovine-related AstVs. In addition, one goat and two sheep VP1 sequences clustered with caprine/ovine-related Evs within the Enterovirus G species, and the CaV was a canine vesivirus. However, human-pathogenic Evs, EV-B80 and EV-C99, were detected in goats and dogs, raising questions on the maintenance of viruses able to infect humans.

Multispecies coinfections and presence of antibiotics shape resistance and fitness costs in a pathogenic bacterium

Increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a challenge for treatment of bacterial diseases. In real life, bacterial infections are typically embedded within complex multispecies communities and influenced by the environment, which can shape costs and benefits of AMR. However, knowledge of such interactions and their implications for AMR in vivo is limited. To address this knowledge gap, we investigated fitness-related traits of a pathogenic bacterium (Flavobacterium columnare) in its fish host, capturing the effects of bacterial antibiotic resistance, coinfections between bacterial strains and metazoan parasites (fluke Diplostomum pseudospathaceum) and antibiotic exposure. We quantified real-time replication and virulence of sensitive and resistant bacteria and demonstrate that both bacteria can benefit from coinfection in terms of persistence and replication, depending on the coinfecting partner and antibiotic presence. We also show that antibiotics can benefit resistant bacteria by increasing bacterial replication under coinfection with flukes. These results emphasize the importance of diverse, inter-kingdom coinfection interactions and antibiotic exposure in shaping costs and benefits of AMR, supporting their role as significant contributors to spread and long-term persistence of resistance.

Parasites in biodiversity conservation: friend or foe?

Parasites stabilise food webs and facilitate species coexistence but can also lead to population- or species-level extinctions. So, in biodiversity conservation, are parasites friends or foes? This question is misleading: it implies that parasites are not part of biodiversity. Greater integration of parasites into global biodiversity and ecosystem conservation efforts is required.

Distinct life history strategies underpin clear patterns of succession in microparasite communities infecting a wild mammalian host

Individual animals in natural populations tend to host diverse parasite species concurrently over their lifetimes. In free-living ecological communities, organismal life histories shape interactions with their environment, which ultimately forms the basis of ecological succession. However, the structure and dynamics of mammalian parasite communities have not been contextualized in terms of primary ecological succession, in part because few datasets track occupancy and abundance of multiple parasites in wild hosts starting at birth. Here, we studied community dynamics of 12 subtypes of protozoan microparasites (Theileria spp.) in a herd of African buffalo. We show that Theileria communities followed predictable patterns of succession underpinned by four different parasite life history strategies. However, in contrast to many free-living communities, network complexity decreased with host age. Examining parasite communities through the lens of succession may better inform the effect of complex within host eco-evolutionary dynamics on infection outcomes, including parasite co-existence through the lifetime of the host.

Plant disease risk is modified by multiple global change drivers

Plant diseases are strongly influenced by host biodiversity, spatial structure, and abiotic conditions. All of these are undergoing rapid change, as the climate is warming, habitats are being lost, and nitrogen deposition is changing nutrient dynamics of ecosystems with ensuing consequences for biodiversity. Here, I review examples of plant-pathogen associations to demonstrate how our ability to understand, model and predict disease dynamics is becoming increasingly difficult, as both plant and pathogen populations and communities are undergoing extensive change. The extent of this change is influenced via both direct and combined effects of global change drivers, and especially the latter are still poorly understood. Change at one trophic level is expected to drive change also at the other, and hence feedback loops between plants and their pathogens are expected to drive changes in disease risk both through ecological as well as evolutionary mechanisms. Many of the examples discussed here demonstrate an increase in disease risk as a result of ongoing change, suggesting that unless we successfully mitigate global environmental change, plant disease is going to become an increasingly heavy burden on our societies with far-reaching consequences for food security and functioning of ecosystems.

The parasites of my rival are my friends

The competitive exclusion principle asserts that two species cannot stably coexist in the same habitat. However, the presence of a parasite can facilitate temporary coexistence between two host species occupying the same habitat. Studies of parasite-mediated interspecific competition typically use two host species that are both susceptible to a single parasite species, as it is rare to find a resistant host species that requires a parasite to enable coexistence with a competitively superior susceptible host. We therefore investigated how two host species characterized by different susceptibility profiles affect each other when they coexist in the same habitat, by conducting two long-term mesocosm experiments in the laboratory. We followed populations of Daphnia similis coexisting with Daphnia magna, in either the presence or absence of the microsporidium Hamiltosporidium tvaerminnensis and then the bacterium Pasteuria ramosa. We found that in the absence of parasites, D. magna competitively excluded D. similis within a short period of time. However, in the presence of either parasites, the competitive ability of D. magna decreased dramatically. Our results emphasize the importance of parasites in shaping community structure and composition, by allowing coexistence of a resistant host species that would otherwise become extinct.

Public health implications of Yersinia enterocolitica investigation: an ecological modeling and molecular epidemiology study

BACKGROUND

Yersinia enterocolitica has been sporadically recovered from animals, foods, and human clinical samples in various regions of Ningxia, China. However, the ecological and molecular characteristics of Y. enterocolitica, as well as public health concerns about infection in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, remain unclear. This study aims to analyze the ecological and molecular epidemiological characteristics of Y. enterocolitis in order to inform the public health intervention strategies for the contains of related diseases.

METHODS

A total of 270 samples were collected for isolation [animals (n = 208), food (n = 49), and patients (n = 13)], then suspect colonies were isolated and identified by the API20E biochemical identification system, serological tests, biotyping tests, and 16S rRNA-PCR. Then, we used an ecological epidemiological approach combined with machine learning algorithms (general linear model, random forest model, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) to explore the associations between ecological factors and the pathogenicity of Y. enterocolitis. Furthermore, average nucleotide identity (ANI) estimation, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), and core gene multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST) were applied to characterize the molecular profile of isolates based on whole genome sequencing. The statistical test used single-factor analysis, Chi-square tests, t-tests/ANOVA-tests, Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, and Kruskal-Wallis tests.

RESULTS

A total of 270 isolates of Yersinia were identified from poultry and livestock (n = 191), food (n = 49), diarrhoea patients (n = 13), rats (n = 15), and hamsters (n = 2). The detection rates of samples from different hosts were statistically different (χ² = 22.636, P < 0.001). According to the relatedness clustering results, 270 isolates were divided into 12 species, and Y. enterocolitica (n = 187) is a predominated species. Pathogenic isolates made up 52.4% (98/187), while non-pathogenic isolates made up 47.6% (89/187). Temperature and precipitation were strongly associated with the pathogenicity of the isolates (P < 0.001). The random forest (RF) prediction model showed the best performance. The prediction result shows a high risk of pathogenicity Y. enterocolitica was located in the northern, northwestern, and southern of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. The Y. enterocolitica isolates were classified into 54 sequence types (STs) and 125 cgMLST types (CTs), with 4/O:3 being the dominant bioserotype in Ningxia. The dominant STs and dominant CTs of pathogenic isolates in Ningxia were ST429 and HC100_2571, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The data indicated geographical variations in the distribution of STs and CTs of Y. enterocolitica isolates in Ningxia. Our work offered the first evidence that the pathogenicity of isolates was directly related to fluctuations in temperature and precipitation of the environment. CgMLST typing strategies showed that the isolates were transmitted to the population via pigs and food. Therefore, strengthening health surveillance on pig farms in high-risk areas and focusing on testing food of pig origin are optional strategies to prevent disease outbreaks.

Antimicrobial Resistance in the Global Health Network: Known Unknowns and Challenges for Efficient Responses in the 21st Century

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the Global Health challenges of the 21st century. The inclusion of AMR on the global map parallels the scientific, technological, and organizational progress of the healthcare system and the socioeconomic changes of the last 100 years. Available knowledge about AMR has mostly come from large healthcare institutions in high-income countries and is scattered in studies across various fields, focused on patient safety (infectious diseases), transmission pathways and pathogen reservoirs (molecular epidemiology), the extent of the problem at a population level (public health), their management and cost (health economics), cultural issues (community psychology), and events associated with historical periods (history of science). However, there is little dialogue between the aspects that facilitate the development, spread, and evolution of AMR and various stakeholders (patients, clinicians, public health professionals, scientists, economic sectors, and funding agencies). This study consists of four complementary sections. The first reviews the socioeconomic factors that have contributed to building the current Global Healthcare system, the scientific framework in which AMR has traditionally been approached in such a system, and the novel scientific and organizational challenges of approaching AMR in the fourth globalization scenario. The second discusses the need to reframe AMR in the current public health and global health contexts. Given that the implementation of policies and guidelines are greatly influenced by AMR information from surveillance systems, in the third section, we review the unit of analysis ("the what" and "the who") and the indicators (the "operational units of surveillance") used in AMR and discuss the factors that affect the validity, reliability, and comparability of the information to be applied in various healthcare (primary, secondary, and tertiary), demographic, and economic contexts (local, regional, global, and inter-sectorial levels). Finally, we discuss the disparities and similarities between distinct stakeholders' objectives and the gaps and challenges of combatting AMR at various levels. In summary, this is a comprehensive but not exhaustive revision of the known unknowns about how to analyze the heterogeneities of hosts, microbes, and hospital patches, the role of surrounding ecosystems, and the challenges they represent for surveillance, antimicrobial stewardship, and infection control programs, which are the traditional cornerstones for controlling AMR in human health.

Direct and indirect viral associations predict coexistence in wild plant virus communities

Viruses are a vastly underestimated component of biodiversity that occur as diverse communities across hierarchical scales from the landscape level to individual hosts. The integration of community ecology with disease biology is a powerful, novel approach that can yield unprecedented insights into the abiotic and biotic drivers of pathogen community assembly. Here, we sampled wild plant populations to characterize and analyze the diversity and co-occurrence structure of within-host virus communities and their predictors. Our results show that these virus communities are characterized by diverse, non-random coinfections. Using a novel graphical network modeling framework, we demonstrate how environmental heterogeneity influences the network of virus taxa and how the virus co-occurrence patterns can be attributed to non-random, direct statistical virus-virus associations. Moreover, we show that environmental heterogeneity changed virus association networks, especially through their indirect effects. Our results highlight a previously underestimated mechanism of how environmental variability can influence disease risks by changing associations between viruses that are conditional on their environment.

Intraspecific trait variation and changing life-history strategies explain host community disease risk along a temperature gradient

Predicting how climate change will affect disease risk is complicated by the fact that changing environmental conditions can affect disease through direct and indirect effects. Species with fast-paced life-history strategies often amplify disease, and changing climate can modify life-history composition of communities thereby altering disease risk. However, individuals within a species can also respond to changing conditions with intraspecific trait variation. To test the effect of temperature, as well as inter- and intraspecifc trait variation on community disease risk, we measured foliar disease and specific leaf area (SLA; a proxy for life-history strategy) on more than 2500 host (plant) individuals in 199 communities across a 1101 m elevational gradient in southeastern Switzerland. There was no direct effect of increasing temperature on disease. Instead, increasing temperature favoured species with higher SLA, fast-paced life-history strategies. This effect was balanced by intraspecific variation in SLA: on average, host individuals expressed lower SLA with increasing temperature, and this effect was stronger among species adapted to warmer temperatures and lower latitudes. These results demonstrate how impacts of changing temperature on disease may depend on how temperature combines and interacts with host community structure while indicating that evolutionary constraints can determine how these effects are manifested under global change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

The emergence and shift in seasonality of Lyme borreliosis in Northern Europe

Climate change has had a major impact on seasonal weather patterns, resulting in marked phenological changes in a wide range of taxa. However, empirical studies of how changes in seasonality impact the emergence and seasonal dynamics of vector-borne diseases have been limited. Lyme borreliosis, a bacterial infection spread by hard-bodied ticks, is the most common vector-borne disease in the northern hemisphere and has been rapidly increasing in both incidence and geographical distribution in many regions of Europe and North America. By analysis of long-term surveillance data (1995-2019) from across Norway (latitude 57°58'-71°08' N), we demonstrate a marked change in the within-year timing of Lyme borreliosis cases accompanying an increase in the annual number of cases. The seasonal peak in cases is now six weeks earlier than 25 years ago, exceeding seasonal shifts in plant phenology and previous model predictions. The seasonal shift occurred predominantly in the first 10 years of the study period. The concurrent upsurgence in case number and shift in case timing indicate a major change in the Lyme borreliosis disease system over recent decades. This study highlights the potential for climate change to shape the seasonal dynamics of vector-borne disease systems.

Understanding the Role of Community Ecology and Pathogen Dynamics in Infectious Diseases in Animals

Since the beginning of ages, pathogens have circulated worldwide, with many causing significant morbidity and mortality in humans [...].

Co-occurrence probabilities between mosquito vectors of West Nile and Eastern equine encephalitis viruses using Markov Random Fields (MRFcov)

Mosquito vectors of eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) and West Nile virus (WNV) in the USA reside within broad multi-species assemblages that vary in spatial and temporal composition, relative abundances and vector competence. These variations impact the risk of pathogen transmission and the operational management of these species by local public health vector control districts. However, most models of mosquito vector dynamics focus on single species and do not account for co-occurrence probabilities between mosquito species pairs across environmental gradients. In this investigation, we use for the first time conditional Markov Random Fields (CRF) to evaluate spatial co-occurrence patterns between host-seeking mosquito vectors of EEEV and WNV around sampling sites in Manatee County, Florida. Specifically, we aimed to: (i) quantify correlations between mosquito vector species and other mosquito species; (ii) quantify correlations between mosquito vectors and landscape and climate variables; and (iii) investigate whether the strength of correlations between species pairs are conditional on landscape or climate variables. We hypothesized that either mosquito species pairs co-occur in patterns driven by the landscape and/or climate variables, or these vector species pairs are unconditionally dependent on each other regardless of the environmental variables. Our results indicated that landscape and bioclimatic covariates did not substantially improve the overall model performance and that the log abundances of the majority of WNV and EEEV vector species were positively dependent on other vector and non-vector mosquito species, unconditionally. Only five individual mosquito vectors were weakly dependent on environmental variables with one exception, Culiseta melanura, the primary vector for EEEV, which showed a strong correlation with woody wetland, precipitation seasonality and average temperature of driest quarter. Our analyses showed that majority of the studied mosquito species' abundance and distribution are insignificantly better predicted by the biotic correlations than by environmental variables. Additionally, these mosquito vector species may be habitat generalists, as indicated by the unconditional correlation matrices between species pairs, which could have confounded our analysis, but also indicated that the approach could be operationalized to leverage species co-occurrences as indicators of vector abundances in unsampled areas, or under scenarios where environmental variables are not informative.

Geospatial assessment of the convergence of communicable and non-communicable diseases in South Africa

Introduction

Several low-and middle-income countries are undergoing rapid epidemiological transition with a rising burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). South Africa (SA) is a country with one of the largest HIV epidemics worldwide and a growing burden of NCDs where the collision of these epidemics poses a major public health challenge.

Methods

Using data from a large nationally representative survey, the South Africa Demographic and Health Survey (SADHS 2016), we conducted a geospatial analysis of several diseases including HIV, tuberculosis (TB), cardiovascular, respiratory, and metabolic diseases to identify areas with a high burden of co-morbidity within the country. We explored the spatial structure of each disease and associations between diseases using different spatial and visual data methodologies. We also assessed the individual level co-occurrence of HIV and the other diseases included in the analysis.

Results

The spatial distribution for HIV prevalence showed that this epidemic is most intense in the eastern region of the country, mostly within the Gauteng, Mpumalanga, and Kwazulu-Natal provinces. In contrast, chronic diseases had their highest prevalence rates the southern region of the country, particularly in the Eastern and Western Cape provinces. Individual-level analyses were consistent with the spatial correlations and found no statistically significant associations between HIV infection and the presence of any NCDs.

Conclusions

We found no evidence of geospatial overlap between the HIV epidemic and NCDs in SA. These results evidence the complex epidemiological landscape of the country, characterized by geographically distinct areas exhibiting different health burdens. The detailed description of the heterogenous prevalence of HIV and NCDs in SA reported in this study could be a useful tool to inform and direct policies to enhance targeted health service delivery according to the local health needs of each community.

Historical contingency in parasite community assembly: Community divergence results from early host exposure to symbionts and ecological drift

Host individuals are commonly coinfected with multiple parasite species that may interact to shape within-host parasite community structure. In addition to within-host species interactions, parasite communities may also be structured by other processes like dispersal and ecological drift. The timing of dispersal (in particular, the temporal sequence in which parasite species infect a host individual) can alter within-host species interactions, setting the stage for historical contingency by priority effects, but how persistently such effects drive the trajectory of parasite community assembly is unclear, particularly under continued dispersal and ecological drift. We tested the role of species interactions under continued dispersal and ecological drift by simultaneously inoculating individual plants of tall fescue with a factorial combination of three symbionts (two foliar fungal parasites and a mutualistic endophyte), then deploying the plants in the field and tracking parasite communities as they assembled within host individuals. In the field, hosts were exposed to continued dispersal from a common pool of parasites, which should promote convergence in the structure of within-host parasite communities. Yet, analysis of parasite community trajectories found no signal of convergence. Instead, parasite community trajectories generally diverged from each other, and the magnitude of divergence depended on the initial composition of symbionts within each host, indicating historical contingency. Early in assembly, parasite communities also showed evidence of drift, revealing another source of among-host divergence in parasite community structure. Overall, these results show that both historical contingency and ecological drift contributed to divergence in parasite community assembly within hosts.