Phylodynamics for cell biologists

Bayesian Phylodynamic Inference of Multitype Population Trajectories Using Genomic Data

Phylodynamic methods provide a coherent framework for the inference of population parameters directly from genetic data. They are an important tool for understanding both the spread of epidemics as well as long-term macroevolutionary trends in speciation and extinction. In particular, phylodynamic methods based on multitype birth-death models have been used to infer the evolution of discrete traits, the movement of individuals or pathogens between geographic locations or host types, and the transition of infected individuals between disease stages. In these models, population heterogeneity is treated by assigning individuals to different discrete types. Typically, methods which allow inference of parameters under multitype birth-death models integrate over the possible birth-death trajectories (i.e. the type-specific population size functions) to reduce the computational demands of the inference. As a result, it has not been possible to use these methods to directly infer the dynamics of trait-specific population sizes, infected host counts or other such demographic quantities. In this article, we present a method which infers these multitype trajectories with minimal additional computational cost beyond that of existing methods. We demonstrate the practicality of our approach by applying it to a previously published set of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus genomes, inferring the numbers of human and camel cases through time, together with the number and timing of spillovers from the camel reservoir. This application highlights the multitype population trajectory's ability to elucidate properties of the population which are not directly ancestral to its sampled members.

Single-cell phylodynamic inference of stem cell differentiation and tumor evolution

Phylodynamic inference (PI) quantifies population dynamics and evolutionary trajectories using phylogenetic trees. Single-cell lineage tracing enables phylogenetic tree reconstruction for thousands of cells in multicellular organisms, facilitating PI at the cellular level. However, cell differentiation and somatic evolution challenge the direct application of existing PI frameworks to somatic tissues. We introduce scPhyloX, a computational framework modeling structured cell populations by leveraging single-cell phylogenetic trees to infer tissue development and tumor evolution dynamics. A key advancement is its ability to infer time-varying parameters, capturing dynamic biological processes. Simulations demonstrate scPhyloX's accuracy in scenarios including tissue development, disease treatment, and tumor growth. Application to three real datasets reveals insights into somatic dynamics: cycling stem cell overshoot in fly organ development, clonal expansion of multipotent hematopoietic progenitors during human aging, and pronounced subclonal selection in early colorectal tumorigenesis. scPhyloX thus provides a computational approach for investigating somatic tissue development and evolution.

A dynamic and multimodal framework to define microglial states

The widespread use of single-cell RNA sequencing has generated numerous purportedly distinct and novel subsets of microglia. Here, we challenge this fragmented paradigm by proposing that microglia exist along a continuum rather than as discrete entities. We identify a methodological over-reliance on computational clustering algorithms as the fundamental issue, with arbitrary cluster numbers being interpreted as biological reality. Evidence suggests that the observed transcriptional diversity stems from a combination of microglial plasticity and technical noise, resulting in terminology describing largely overlapping cellular states. We introduce a continuous model of microglial states, where cell positioning along the continuum is determined by biological aging and cell-specific molecular contexts. The model accommodates the dynamic nature of microglia. We advocate for a parsimonious approach toward classification and terminology that acknowledges the continuous spectrum of microglial states, toward a robust framework for understanding these essential immune cells of the CNS.

A variational deep-learning approach to modeling memory T cell dynamics

Mechanistic models of dynamic, interacting cell populations have yielded many insights into the growth and resolution of immune responses. Historically these models have described the behavior of pre-defined cell types based on small numbers of phenotypic markers. The ubiquity of deep phenotyping therefore presents a new challenge; how do we confront tractable and interpretable mathematical models with high-dimensional data? To tackle this problem, we studied the development and persistence of lung-resident memory CD4 and CD8 T cells (TRM) in mice infected with influenza virus. We developed an approach in which dynamical model parameters and the population structure are inferred simultaneously. This method uses deep learning and stochastic variational inference and is trained on the single-cell flow-cytometry data directly, rather than on the kinetics of pre-identified clusters. We show that during the resolution phase of the immune response, memory CD4 and CD8 T cells within the lung are phenotypically diverse, with subsets exhibiting highly distinct and time-dependent dynamics. TRM heterogeneity is maintained long-term by ongoing differentiation of relatively persistent Bcl-2hi CD4 and CD8 TRM subsets which resolve into distinct functional populations. Our approach yields new insights into the dynamics of tissue-localized immune memory, and is a novel basis for interpreting time series of high-dimensional data, broadly applicable to diverse biological systems.

Reading Yule in light of the history and present of macroevolution

Yule's 1925 paper introducing the branching model that bears his name was a landmark contribution to the biodiversity sciences. In his paper, Yule developed stochastic models to explain the observed distribution of species across genera and to test hypotheses about the relationship between clade age, diversity and geographic range. Here, we discuss the intellectual context in which Yule produced this work, highlight Yule's key mathematical and conceptual contributions using both his and more modern derivations and critically examine some of the assumptions of his work through a modern lens. We then document the strange trajectory of his work through the history of macroevolutionary thought and discuss how the fundamental challenges he grappled with-such as defining higher taxa, linking microevolutionary population dynamics to macroevolutionary rates, and accounting for inconsistent taxonomic practices-remain with us a century later.This article is part of the theme issue '"A mathematical theory of evolution": phylogenetic models dating back 100 years'.

A Bayesian phylodynamic inference framework for single-cell CRISPR/Cas9 lineage tracing barcode data with dependent target sites

Analysing single-cell lineage relationships of an organism is crucial towards understanding the fundamental cellular dynamics that drive development. Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)-based dynamic lineage tracing relies on recent advances in genome editing and sequencing technologies to generate inheritable, evolving genetic barcode sequences that enable reconstruction of such cell lineage trees, also referred to as phylogenetic trees. Recent work generated custom computational strategies to produce robust tree estimates from such data. We further capitalize on these advancements and introduce GESTALT analysis using Bayesian inference (GABI), which extends the analysis of genome editing of synthetic target arrays for lineage tracing (GESTALT) data to a fully integrated Bayesian phylogenetic inference framework in software BEAST 2. This implementation allows users to represent the uncertainty in reconstructed trees and enables their scaling in absolute time. Furthermore, based on such time-scaled lineage trees, the underlying processes of growth, differentiation and apoptosis are quantified through so-called phylodynamic inference, typically relying on a birth-death or coalescent model. After validating its implementation, we demonstrate that our methodology results in robust estimates of growth dynamics characteristic of early Danio rerio development. GABI's codebase is publicly available at https://github.com/azwaans/GABI.This article is part of the theme issue '"A mathematical theory of evolution": phylogenetic models dating back 100 years'.

Reticulate evolution: Detection and utility in the phylogenomics era

Phylogenomics has enriched our understanding that the Tree of Life can have network-like or reticulate structures among some taxa and genes. Two non-vertical modes of evolution - hybridization/introgression and horizontal gene transfer - deviate from a strictly bifurcating tree model, causing non-treelike patterns. However, these reticulate processes can produce similar patterns to incomplete lineage sorting or recombination, potentially leading to ambiguity. Here, we present a brief overview of a phylogenomic workflow for inferring organismal histories and compare methods for distinguishing modes of reticulate evolution. We discuss how the timing of coalescent events can help disentangle introgression from incomplete lineage sorting and how horizontal gene transfer events can help determine the relative timing of speciation events. In doing so, we identify pitfalls of certain methods and discuss how to extend their utility across the Tree of Life. Workflows, methods, and future directions discussed herein underscore the need to embrace reticulate evolutionary patterns for understanding the timing and rates of evolutionary events, providing a clearer view of life's history.

Developmental hematopoietic stem cell variation explains clonal hematopoiesis later in life

Clonal hematopoiesis becomes increasingly common with age, but its cause is enigmatic because driver mutations are often absent. Serial observations infer weak selection indicating variants are acquired much earlier in life with unexplained initial growth spurts. Here we use fluctuating CpG methylation as a lineage marker to track stem cell clonal dynamics of hematopoiesis. We show, via the shared prenatal circulation of monozygotic twins, that weak selection conferred by stem cell variation created before birth can reliably yield clonal hematopoiesis later in life. Theory indicates weak selection will lead to dominance given enough time and large enough population sizes. Human hematopoiesis satisfies both these conditions. Stochastic loss of weakly selected variants is naturally prevented by the expansion of stem cell lineages during development. The dominance of stem cell clones created before birth is supported by blood fluctuating CpG methylation patterns that exhibit low correlation between unrelated individuals but are highly correlated between many elderly monozygotic twins. Therefore, clonal hematopoiesis driven by weak selection in later life appears to reflect variation created before birth.

The evolution of developmental biology through conceptual and technological revolutions

Developmental biology-the study of the processes by which cells, tissues, and organisms develop and change over time-has entered a new golden age. After the molecular genetics revolution in the 80s and 90s and the diversification of the field in the early 21st century, we have entered a phase when powerful technologies provide new approaches and open unexplored avenues. Progress in the field has been accelerated by advances in genomics, imaging, engineering, and computational biology and by emerging model systems ranging from tardigrades to organoids. We summarize how revolutionary technologies have led to remarkable progress in understanding animal development. We describe how classic questions in gene regulation, pattern formation, morphogenesis, organogenesis, and stem cell biology are being revisited. We discuss the connections of development with evolution, self-organization, metabolism, time, and ecology. We speculate how developmental biology might evolve in an era of synthetic biology, artificial intelligence, and human engineering.

Cell Tree Rings: the structure of somatic evolution as a human aging timer

Biological age is typically estimated using biomarkers whose states have been observed to correlate with chronological age. A persistent limitation of such aging clocks is that it is difficult to establish how the biomarker states are related to the mechanisms of aging. Somatic mutations could potentially form the basis for a more fundamental aging clock since the mutations are both markers and drivers of aging and have a natural timescale. Cell lineage trees inferred from these mutations reflect the somatic evolutionary process, and thus, it has been conjectured, the aging status of the body. Such a timer has been impractical thus far, however, because detection of somatic variants in single cells presents a significant technological challenge. Here, we show that somatic mutations detected using single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) from thousands of cells can be used to construct a cell lineage tree whose structure correlates with chronological age. De novo single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) are detected in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells using a modified protocol. A default model based on penalized multiple regression of chronological age on 31 metrics characterizing the phylogenetic tree gives a Pearson correlation of 0.81 and a median absolute error of ~4 years between predicted and chronological ages. Testing of the model on a public scRNA-seq dataset yields a Pearson correlation of 0.85. In addition, cell tree age predictions are found to be better predictors of certain clinical biomarkers than chronological age alone, for instance glucose, albumin levels, and leukocyte count. The geometry of the cell lineage tree records the structure of somatic evolution in the individual and represents a new modality of aging timer. In addition to providing a numerical estimate of "cell tree age," it unveils a temporal history of the aging process, revealing how clonal structure evolves over life span. Cell Tree Rings complements existing aging clocks and may help reduce the current uncertainty in the assessment of geroprotective trials.

PhyloVelo enhances transcriptomic velocity field mapping using monotonically expressed genes

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) is a powerful approach for studying cellular differentiation, but accurately tracking cell fate transitions can be challenging, especially in disease conditions. Here we introduce PhyloVelo, a computational framework that estimates the velocity of transcriptomic dynamics by using monotonically expressed genes (MEGs) or genes with expression patterns that either increase or decrease, but do not cycle, through phylogenetic time. Through integration of scRNA-seq data with lineage information, PhyloVelo identifies MEGs and reconstructs a transcriptomic velocity field. We validate PhyloVelo using simulated data and Caenorhabditis elegans ground truth data, successfully recovering linear, bifurcated and convergent differentiations. Applying PhyloVelo to seven lineage-traced scRNA-seq datasets, generated using CRISPR-Cas9 editing, lentiviral barcoding or immune repertoire profiling, demonstrates its high accuracy and robustness in inferring complex lineage trajectories while outperforming RNA velocity. Additionally, we discovered that MEGs across tissues and organisms share similar functions in translation and ribosome biogenesis.

A logic-incorporated gene regulatory network deciphers principles in cell fate decisions

Organisms utilize gene regulatory networks (GRN) to make fate decisions, but the regulatory mechanisms of transcription factors (TF) in GRNs are exceedingly intricate. A longstanding question in this field is how these tangled interactions synergistically contribute to decision-making procedures. To comprehensively understand the role of regulatory logic in cell fate decisions, we constructed a logic-incorporated GRN model and examined its behavior under two distinct driving forces (noise-driven and signal-driven). Under the noise-driven mode, we distilled the relationship among fate bias, regulatory logic, and noise profile. Under the signal-driven mode, we bridged regulatory logic and progression-accuracy trade-off, and uncovered distinctive trajectories of reprogramming influenced by logic motifs. In differentiation, we characterized a special logic-dependent priming stage by the solution landscape. Finally, we applied our findings to decipher three biological instances: hematopoiesis, embryogenesis, and trans-differentiation. Orthogonal to the classical analysis of expression profile, we harnessed noise patterns to construct the GRN corresponding to fate transition. Our work presents a generalizable framework for top-down fate-decision studies and a practical approach to the taxonomy of cell fate decisions.

Partial label learning for automated classification of single-cell transcriptomic profiles

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNASeq) data plays a major role in advancing our understanding of developmental biology. An important current question is how to classify transcriptomic profiles obtained from scRNASeq experiments into the various cell types and identify the lineage relationship for individual cells. Because of the fast accumulation of datasets and the high dimensionality of the data, it has become challenging to explore and annotate single-cell transcriptomic profiles by hand. To overcome this challenge, automated classification methods are needed. Classical approaches rely on supervised training datasets. However, due to the difficulty of obtaining data annotated at single-cell resolution, we propose instead to take advantage of partial annotations. The partial label learning framework assumes that we can obtain a set of candidate labels containing the correct one for each data point, a simpler setting than requiring a fully supervised training dataset. We study and extend when needed state-of-the-art multi-class classification methods, such as SVM, kNN, prototype-based, logistic regression and ensemble methods, to the partial label learning framework. Moreover, we study the effect of incorporating the structure of the label set into the methods. We focus particularly on the hierarchical structure of the labels, as commonly observed in developmental processes. We show, on simulated and real datasets, that these extensions enable to learn from partially labeled data, and perform predictions with high accuracy, particularly with a nonlinear prototype-based method. We demonstrate that the performances of our methods trained with partially annotated data reach the same performance as fully supervised data. Finally, we study the level of uncertainty present in the partially annotated data, and derive some prescriptive results on the effect of this uncertainty on the accuracy of the partial label learning methods. Overall our findings show how hierarchical and non-hierarchical partial label learning strategies can help solve the problem of automated classification of single-cell transcriptomic profiles, interestingly these methods rely on a much less stringent type of annotated datasets compared to fully supervised learning methods.

A statistical method for quantifying progenitor cells reveals incipient cell fate commitments

Quantifying the number of progenitor cells that found an organ, tissue or cell population is of fundamental importance for understanding the development and homeostasis of a multicellular organism. Previous efforts rely on marker genes that are specifically expressed in progenitors. This strategy is, however, often hindered by the lack of ideal markers. Here we propose a general statistical method to quantify the progenitors of any tissues or cell populations in an organism, even in the absence of progenitor-specific markers, by exploring the cell phylogenetic tree that records the cell division history during development. The method, termed targeting coalescent analysis (TarCA), computes the probability that two randomly sampled cells of a tissue coalesce within the tissue-specific monophyletic clades. The inverse of this probability then serves as a measure of the progenitor number of the tissue. Both mathematic modeling and computer simulations demonstrated the high accuracy of TarCA, which was then validated using real data from nematode, fruit fly and mouse, all with related cell phylogenetic trees. We further showed that TarCA can be used to identify lineage-specific upregulated genes during embryogenesis, revealing incipient cell fate commitments in mouse embryos.

Lineage motifs as developmental modules for control of cell type proportions

In multicellular organisms, cell types must be produced and maintained in appropriate proportions. One way this is achieved is through committed progenitor cells or extrinsic interactions that produce specific patterns of descendant cell types on lineage trees. However, cell fate commitment is probabilistic in most contexts, making it difficult to infer these dynamics and understand how they establish overall cell type proportions. Here, we introduce Lineage Motif Analysis (LMA), a method that recursively identifies statistically overrepresented patterns of cell fates on lineage trees as potential signatures of committed progenitor states or extrinsic interactions. Applying LMA to published datasets reveals spatial and temporal organization of cell fate commitment in zebrafish and rat retina and early mouse embryonic development. Comparative analysis of vertebrate species suggests that lineage motifs facilitate adaptive evolutionary variation of retinal cell type proportions. LMA thus provides insight into complex developmental processes by decomposing them into simpler underlying modules.

Repeated Decision Stumping Distils Simple Rules from Single-Cell Data

Single-cell data afford unprecedented insights into molecular processes. But the complexity and size of these data sets have proved challenging and given rise to a large armory of statistical and machine learning approaches. The majority of approaches focuses on either describing features of these data, or making predictions and classifying unlabeled samples. In this study, we introduce repeated decision stumping (ReDX) as a method to distill simple models from single-cell data. We develop decision trees of depth one-hence "stumps"-to identify in an inductive manner, gene products involved in driving cell fate transitions, and in applications to published data we are able to discover the key players involved in these processes in an unbiased manner without prior knowledge. Our algorithm is deliberately targeting the simplest possible candidate hypotheses that can be extracted from complex high-dimensional data. There are three reasons for this: (1) the predictions become straightforwardly testable hypotheses; (2) the identified candidates form the basis for further mechanistic model development, for example, for engineering and synthetic biology interventions; and (3) this approach complements existing descriptive modeling approaches and frameworks. The approach is computationally efficient, has remarkable predictive power, including in simulation studies where the ground truth is known, and yields robust and statistically stable predictors; the same set of candidates is generated by applying the algorithm to different subsamples of experimental data.

Spatiotemporally Programmed Disassembly of Multifunctional Integrated DNAzyme Nanoplatfrom for Amplified Intracellular MicroRNA Imaging

The sensing performance of DNAzymes in live cells is tremendously hampered by the inefficient and inhomogeneous delivery of DNAzyme probes and their incontrollable off-site activation, originating from their susceptibility to nuclease digestion. This requires the development of a more compact and robust DNAzyme-delivering system with site-specific DNAzyme activation property. Herein, a highly compact and robust Zn@DDz nanoplatform is constructed by integrating the unimolecular microRNA-responsive DNA-cleaving DNAzyme (DDz) probe with the requisite DNAzyme Zn2+ -ion cofactors, and the amplified intracellular imaging of microRNA via the spatiotemporally programmed disassembly of Zn@DDz nanoparticles is achieved. The multifunctional Zn@DDz nanoplatform is simply composed of a structurally blocked self-hydrolysis DDz probe and the inorganic Zn2+ -ion bridge, with high loading capacity, and can effectively deliver the initially catalytic inert DDz probe and Zn2+ into living cells with enhanced stabilities. Upon their entry into the acidic microenvironment of living cells, the self-sufficient Zn@DDz nanoparticle is disassembled to release DDz probe and simultaneously supply Zn2+ -ion cofactors. Then, endogenous microRNA-21 catalyzes the reconfiguration and activation of DDz for generating the amplified readout signal with multiply guaranteed imaging performance. Thus, this work paves an effective way for promoting DNAzyme-based biosensing systems in living cells, and shows great promise in clinical diagnosis.

Stochastic organelle genome segregation through Arabidopsis development and reproduction

Organelle DNA (oDNA) in mitochondria and plastids is vital for plant (and eukaryotic) life. Selection against damaged oDNA is mediated in part by segregation - sorting different oDNA types into different cells in the germline. Plants segregate oDNA very rapidly, with oDNA recombination protein MSH1 a key driver of this segregation, but we have limited knowledge of the dynamics of this segregation within plants and between generations. Here, we reveal how oDNA evolves through Arabidopsis thaliana development and reproduction. We combine stochastic modelling, Bayesian inference, and model selection with new and existing tissue-specific oDNA measurements from heteroplasmic Arabidopsis plant lines through development and between generations. Segregation proceeds gradually but continually during plant development, with a more rapid increase between inflorescence formation and the next generation. When MSH1 is compromised, the majority of observed segregation can be achieved through partitioning at cell divisions. When MSH1 is functional, mtDNA segregation is far more rapid; we show that increased oDNA gene conversion is a plausible mechanism quantitatively explaining this acceleration. These findings reveal the quantitative, time-dependent details of oDNA segregation in Arabidopsis. We also discuss the support for different models of the plant germline provided by these observations.

Single-cell phylogenies reveal changes in the evolutionary rate within cancer and healthy tissues

Cell lineages accumulate somatic mutations during organismal development, potentially leading to pathological states. The rate of somatic evolution within a cell population can vary due to multiple factors, including selection, a change in the mutation rate, or differences in the microenvironment. Here, we developed a statistical test called the Poisson Tree (PT) test to detect varying evolutionary rates among cell lineages, leveraging the phylogenetic signal of single-cell DNA sequencing (scDNA-seq) data. We applied the PT test to 24 healthy and cancer samples, rejecting a constant evolutionary rate in 11 out of 15 cancer and five out of nine healthy scDNA-seq datasets. In six cancer datasets, we identified subclonal mutations in known driver genes that could explain the rate accelerations of particular cancer lineages. Our findings demonstrate the efficacy of scDNA-seq for studying somatic evolution and suggest that cell lineages often evolve at different rates within cancer and healthy tissues.

cloneRate: fast estimation of single-cell clonal dynamics using coalescent theory

MOTIVATION

While evolutionary approaches to medicine show promise, measuring evolution itself is difficult due to experimental constraints and the dynamic nature of body systems. In cancer evolution, continuous observation of clonal architecture is impossible, and longitudinal samples from multiple timepoints are rare. Increasingly available DNA sequencing datasets at single-cell resolution enable the reconstruction of past evolution using mutational history, allowing for a better understanding of dynamics prior to detectable disease. There is an unmet need for an accurate, fast, and easy-to-use method to quantify clone growth dynamics from these datasets.

RESULTS

We derived methods based on coalescent theory for estimating the net growth rate of clones using either reconstructed phylogenies or the number of shared mutations. We applied and validated our analytical methods for estimating the net growth rate of clones, eliminating the need for complex simulations used in previous methods. When applied to hematopoietic data, we show that our estimates may have broad applications to improve mechanistic understanding and prognostic ability. Compared to clones with a single or unknown driver mutation, clones with multiple drivers have significantly increased growth rates (median 0.94 versus 0.25 per year; P = 1.6×10-6). Further, stratifying patients with a myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN) by the growth rate of their fittest clone shows that higher growth rates are associated with shorter time to MPN diagnosis (median 13.9 versus 26.4 months; P = 0.0026).

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

We developed a publicly available R package, cloneRate, to implement our methods (Package website: https://bdj34.github.io/cloneRate/). Source code: https://github.com/bdj34/cloneRate/.

Machine learning based lineage tree reconstruction improved with knowledge of higher level relationships between cells and genomic barcodes

Tracking cells as they divide and progress through differentiation is a fundamental step in understanding many biological processes, such as the development of organisms and progression of diseases. In this study, we investigate a machine learning approach to reconstruct lineage trees in experimental systems based on mutating synthetic genomic barcodes. We refine previously proposed methodology by embedding information of higher level relationships between cells and single-cell barcode values into a feature space. We test performance of the algorithm on shallow trees (up to 100 cells) and deep trees (up to 10 000 cells). Our proposed algorithm can improve tree reconstruction accuracy in comparison to reconstructions based on a maximum parsimony method, but this comes at a higher computational time requirement.

The tumour is in the detail: Local phylogenetic, population and epidemiological dynamics of a transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils

Infectious diseases are a major threat for biodiversity conservation and can exert strong influence on wildlife population dynamics. Understanding the mechanisms driving infection rates and epidemic outcomes requires empirical data on the evolutionary trajectory of pathogens and host selective processes. Phylodynamics is a robust framework to understand the interaction of pathogen evolutionary processes with epidemiological dynamics, providing a powerful tool to evaluate disease control strategies. Tasmanian devils have been threatened by a fatal transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), for more than two decades. Here we employ a phylodynamic approach using tumour mitochondrial genomes to assess the role of tumour genetic diversity in epidemiological and population dynamics in a devil population subject to 12 years of intensive monitoring, since the beginning of the epidemic outbreak. DFTD molecular clock estimates of disease introduction mirrored observed estimates in the field, and DFTD genetic diversity was positively correlated with estimates of devil population size. However, prevalence and force of infection were the lowest when devil population size and tumour genetic diversity was the highest. This could be due to either differential virulence or transmissibility in tumour lineages or the development of host defence strategies against infection. Our results support the view that evolutionary processes and epidemiological trade-offs can drive host-pathogen coexistence, even when disease-induced mortality is extremely high. We highlight the importance of integrating pathogen and population evolutionary interactions to better understand long-term epidemic dynamics and evaluating disease control strategies.

The brain is not mental! coupling neuronal and immune cellular processing in human organisms

Significant efforts have been made in the past decades to understand how mental and cognitive processes are underpinned by neural mechanisms in the brain. This paper argues that a promising way forward in understanding the nature of human cognition is to zoom out from the prevailing picture focusing on its neural basis. It considers instead how neurons work in tandem with other type of cells (e.g., immune) to subserve biological self-organization and adaptive behavior of the human organism as a whole. We focus specifically on the immune cellular processing as key actor in complementing neuronal processing in achieving successful self-organization and adaptation of the human body in an ever-changing environment. We overview theoretical work and empirical evidence on "basal cognition" challenging the idea that only the neuronal cells in the brain have the exclusive ability to "learn" or "cognize." The focus on cellular rather than neural, brain processing underscores the idea that flexible responses to fluctuations in the environment require a carefully crafted orchestration of multiple cellular and bodily systems at multiple organizational levels of the biological organism. Hence cognition can be seen as a multiscale web of dynamic information processing distributed across a vast array of complex cellular (e.g., neuronal, immune, and others) and network systems, operating across the entire body, and not just in the brain. Ultimately, this paper builds up toward the radical claim that cognition should not be confined to one system alone, namely, the neural system in the brain, no matter how sophisticated the latter notoriously is.

State-dependent evolutionary models reveal modes of solid tumour growth

Spatial properties of tumour growth have profound implications for cancer progression, therapeutic resistance and metastasis. Yet, how spatial position governs tumour cell division remains difficult to evaluate in clinical tumours. Here, we demonstrate that faster division on the tumour periphery leaves characteristic genetic patterns, which become evident when a phylogenetic tree is reconstructed from spatially sampled cells. Namely, rapidly dividing peripheral lineages branch more extensively and acquire more mutations than slower-dividing centre lineages. We develop a Bayesian state-dependent evolutionary phylodynamic model (SDevo) that quantifies these patterns to infer the differential division rates between peripheral and central cells. We demonstrate that this approach accurately infers spatially varying birth rates of simulated tumours across a range of growth conditions and sampling strategies. We then show that SDevo outperforms state-of-the-art, non-cancer multi-state phylodynamic methods that ignore differential sequence evolution. Finally, we apply SDevo to single-time-point, multi-region sequencing data from clinical hepatocellular carcinomas and find evidence of a three- to six-times-higher division rate on the tumour edge. With the increasing availability of high-resolution, multi-region sequencing, we anticipate that SDevo will be useful in interrogating spatial growth restrictions and could be extended to model non-spatial factors that influence tumour progression.

adaPop: Bayesian inference of dependent population dynamics in coalescent models

The coalescent is a powerful statistical framework that allows us to infer past population dynamics leveraging the ancestral relationships reconstructed from sampled molecular sequence data. In many biomedical applications, such as in the study of infectious diseases, cell development, and tumorgenesis, several distinct populations share evolutionary history and therefore become dependent. The inference of such dependence is a highly important, yet a challenging problem. With advances in sequencing technologies, we are well positioned to exploit the wealth of high-resolution biological data for tackling this problem. Here, we present adaPop, a probabilistic model to estimate past population dynamics of dependent populations and to quantify their degree of dependence. An essential feature of our approach is the ability to track the time-varying association between the populations while making minimal assumptions on their functional shapes via Markov random field priors. We provide nonparametric estimators, extensions of our base model that integrate multiple data sources, and fast scalable inference algorithms. We test our method using simulated data under various dependent population histories and demonstrate the utility of our model in shedding light on evolutionary histories of different variants of SARS-CoV-2.

A reference cell tree will serve science better than a reference cell atlas

Single-cell biology is facing a crisis of sorts. Vast numbers of single-cell molecular profiles are being generated, clustered and annotated. However, this is overwhelmingly ad hoc, and we continue to lack a principled, unified, and well-moored system for defining, naming, and organizing cell types. In this perspective, we argue against an atlas or periodic table-like discretization as the right metaphor for a reference taxonomy of cell types. In its place, we advocate for a data-driven, tree-based nomenclature that is rooted in a "consensus ontogeny" spanning the life cycle of a given species. We explore how such a reference cell tree, inclusive of both lineage histories and molecular states, could be constructed, represented, and segmented in practice. Analogous to the taxonomic classification of species, a consensus ontogeny would provide a universal, stable, and extendable framework for precise scientific communication, both contemporaneously and across the ages.

SIEVE: joint inference of single-nucleotide variants and cell phylogeny from single-cell DNA sequencing data

We present SIEVE, a statistical method for the joint inference of somatic variants and cell phylogeny under the finite-sites assumption from single-cell DNA sequencing. SIEVE leverages raw read counts for all nucleotides and corrects the acquisition bias of branch lengths. In our simulations, SIEVE outperforms other methods in phylogenetic reconstruction and variant calling accuracy, especially in the inference of homozygous variants. Applying SIEVE to three datasets, one for triple-negative breast (TNBC), and two for colorectal cancer (CRC), we find that double mutant genotypes are rare in CRC but unexpectedly frequent in the TNBC samples.

Quantitative fate mapping: A general framework for analyzing progenitor state dynamics via retrospective lineage barcoding

Natural and induced somatic mutations that accumulate in the genome during development record the phylogenetic relationships of cells; whether these lineage barcodes capture the complex dynamics of progenitor states remains unclear. We introduce quantitative fate mapping, an approach to reconstruct the hierarchy, commitment times, population sizes, and commitment biases of intermediate progenitor states during development based on a time-scaled phylogeny of their descendants. To reconstruct time-scaled phylogenies from lineage barcodes, we introduce Phylotime, a scalable maximum likelihood clustering approach based on a general barcoding mutagenesis model. We validate these approaches using realistic in silico and in vitro barcoding experiments. We further establish criteria for the number of cells that must be analyzed for robust quantitative fate mapping and a progenitor state coverage statistic to assess the robustness. This work demonstrates how lineage barcodes, natural or synthetic, enable analyzing progenitor fate and dynamics long after embryonic development in any organism.

TiDeTree: a Bayesian phylogenetic framework to estimate single-cell trees and population dynamic parameters from genetic lineage tracing data

The development of organisms and tissues is dictated by an elaborate balance between cell division, apoptosis and differentiation: the cell population dynamics. To quantify these dynamics, we propose a phylodynamic inference approach based on single-cell lineage recorder data. We developed a Bayesian phylogenetic framework-time-scaled developmental trees (TiDeTree)-that uses lineage recorder data to estimate time-scaled single-cell trees. By implementing TiDeTree within BEAST 2, we enable joint inference of the time-scaled trees and the cell population dynamics. We validated TiDeTree using simulations and showed that performance further improves when including multiple independent sources of information into the inference, such as frequencies of editing outcomes or experimental replicates. We benchmarked TiDeTree against state-of-the-art methods and show comparable performance in terms of tree topology, plus direct assessment of uncertainty and co-estimation of additional parameters. To demonstrate TiDeTree's use in practice, we analysed a public dataset containing lineage data from approximately 100 stem cell colonies. We estimated a time-scaled phylogeny for each colony; as well as the cell division and apoptosis rates underlying the growth dynamics of all colonies. We envision that TiDeTree will find broad application in the analysis of single-cell lineage tracing data, which will improve our understanding of cellular processes during development.

Cellular barcoding to decipher clonal dynamics in disease

Cellular barcodes are distinct DNA sequences that enable one to track specific cells across time or space. Recent advances in our ability to detect natural or synthetic cellular barcodes, paired with single-cell readouts of cell state, have markedly increased our knowledge of clonal dynamics and genealogies of the cells that compose a variety of tissues and organs. These advances hold promise to redefine our view of human disease. Here, we provide an overview of cellular barcoding approaches, discuss applications to gain new insights into disease mechanisms, and provide an outlook on future applications. We discuss unanticipated insights gained through barcoding in studies of cancer and blood cell production and describe how barcoding can be applied to a growing array of medical fields, particularly with the increasing recognition of clonal contributions in human diseases.

More is different with a vengeance

In his 1972 landmark paper "More is Different," Philip W. Anderson established "complexity" as a fundamentally important subject of inquiry. He highlighted the profound limitations of reductionist approaches in understanding nature's complexity, and he set in motion new lines of investigation that have, among other things, led to systems biology.

Quantitative models for building and growing fated small cell networks

Small cell clusters exhibit numerous phenomena typically associated with complex systems, such as division of labour and programmed cell death. A conserved class of such clusters occurs during oogenesis in the form of germline cysts that give rise to oocytes. Germline cysts form through cell divisions with incomplete cytokinesis, leaving cells intimately connected through intercellular bridges that facilitate cyst generation, cell fate determination and collective growth dynamics. Using the well-characterized Drosophila melanogaster female germline cyst as a foundation, we present mathematical models rooted in the dynamics of cell cycle proteins and their interactions to explain the generation of germline cell lineage trees (CLTs) and highlight the diversity of observed CLT sizes and topologies across species. We analyse competing models of symmetry breaking in CLTs to rationalize the observed dynamics and robustness of oocyte fate specification, and highlight remaining gaps in knowledge. We also explore how CLT topology affects cell cycle dynamics and synchronization and highlight mechanisms of intercellular coupling that underlie the observed collective growth patterns during oogenesis. Throughout, we point to similarities across organisms that warrant further investigation and comment on the extent to which experimental and theoretical findings made in model systems extend to other species.

What is a cell type and how to define it?

Cell types are the basic functional units of an organism. Cell types exhibit diverse phenotypic properties at multiple levels, making them challenging to define, categorize, and understand. This review provides an overview of the basic principles of cell types rooted in evolution and development and discusses approaches to characterize and classify cell types and investigate how they contribute to the organism's function, using the mammalian brain as a primary example. I propose a roadmap toward a conceptual framework and knowledge base of cell types that will enable a deeper understanding of the dynamic changes of cellular function under healthy and diseased conditions.

Epidemiological inference from pathogen genomes: A review of phylodynamic models and applications

Phylodynamics requires an interdisciplinary understanding of phylogenetics, epidemiology, and statistical inference. It has also experienced more intense application than ever before amid the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In light of this, we present a review of phylodynamic models beginning with foundational models and assumptions. Our target audience is public health researchers, epidemiologists, and biologists seeking a working knowledge of the links between epidemiology, evolutionary models, and resulting epidemiological inference. We discuss the assumptions linking evolutionary models of pathogen population size to epidemiological models of the infected population size. We then describe statistical inference for phylodynamic models and list how output parameters can be rearranged for epidemiological interpretation. We go on to cover more sophisticated models and finish by highlighting future directions.

Lineage tracing reveals the phylodynamics, plasticity, and paths of tumor evolution

Tumor evolution is driven by the progressive acquisition of genetic and epigenetic alterations that enable uncontrolled growth and expansion to neighboring and distal tissues. The study of phylogenetic relationships between cancer cells provides key insights into these processes. Here, we introduced an evolving lineage-tracing system with a single-cell RNA-seq readout into a mouse model of Kras;Trp53(KP)-driven lung adenocarcinoma and tracked tumor evolution from single-transformed cells to metastatic tumors at unprecedented resolution. We found that the loss of the initial, stable alveolar-type2-like state was accompanied by a transient increase in plasticity. This was followed by the adoption of distinct transcriptional programs that enable rapid expansion and, ultimately, clonal sweep of stable subclones capable of metastasizing. Finally, tumors develop through stereotypical evolutionary trajectories, and perturbing additional tumor suppressors accelerates progression by creating novel trajectories. Our study elucidates the hierarchical nature of tumor evolution and, more broadly, enables in-depth studies of tumor progression.

Simultaneous brain cell type and lineage determined by scRNA-seq reveals stereotyped cortical development

Mutations are acquired frequently, such that each cell's genome inscribes its history of cell divisions. Common genomic alterations involve loss of heterozygosity (LOH). LOH accumulates throughout the genome, offering large encoding capacity for inferring cell lineage. Using only single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) of mouse brain cells, we found that LOH events spanning multiple genes are revealed as tracts of monoallelically expressed, constitutionally heterozygous single-nucleotide variants (SNVs). We simultaneously inferred cell lineage and marked developmental time points based on X chromosome inactivation and the total number of LOH events while identifying cell types from gene expression patterns. Our results are consistent with progenitor cells giving rise to multiple cortical cell types through stereotyped expansion and distinct waves of neurogenesis. This type of retrospective analysis could be incorporated into scRNA-seq pipelines and, compared with experimental approaches for determining lineage in model organisms, is applicable where genetic engineering is prohibited, such as humans.

Evolution during primary HIV infection does not require adaptive immune selection

Modern HIV research depends crucially on both viral sequencing and population measurements. To directly link mechanistic biological processes and evolutionary dynamics during HIV infection, we developed multiple within-host phylodynamic models of HIV primary infection for comparative validation against viral load and evolutionary dynamics data. The optimal model of primary infection required no positive selection, suggesting that the host adaptive immune system reduces viral load but surprisingly does not drive observed viral evolution. Rather, the fitness (infectivity) of mutant variants is drawn from an exponential distribution in which most variants are slightly less infectious than their parents (nearly neutral evolution). This distribution was not largely different from either in vivo fitness distributions recorded beyond primary infection or in vitro distributions that are observed without adaptive immunity, suggesting the intrinsic viral fitness distribution may drive evolution. Simulated phylogenetic trees also agree with independent data and illuminate how phylogenetic inference must consider viral and immune-cell population dynamics to gain accurate mechanistic insights.

Markov genealogy processes

We construct a family of genealogy-valued Markov processes that are induced by a continuous-time Markov population process. We derive exact expressions for the likelihood of a given genealogy conditional on the history of the underlying population process. These lead to a nonlinear filtering equation which can be used to design efficient Monte Carlo inference algorithms. We demonstrate these calculations with several examples. Existing full-information approaches for phylodynamic inference are special cases of the theory.

CellPhy: accurate and fast probabilistic inference of single-cell phylogenies from scDNA-seq data

We introduce CellPhy, a maximum likelihood framework for inferring phylogenetic trees from somatic single-cell single-nucleotide variants. CellPhy leverages a finite-site Markov genotype model with 16 diploid states and considers amplification error and allelic dropout. We implement CellPhy into RAxML-NG, a widely used phylogenetic inference package that provides statistical confidence measurements and scales well on large datasets with hundreds or thousands of cells. Comprehensive simulations suggest that CellPhy is more robust to single-cell genomics errors and outperforms state-of-the-art methods under realistic scenarios, both in accuracy and speed. CellPhy is freely available at https://github.com/amkozlov/cellphy .

How a cell decides its own fate: a single-cell view of molecular mechanisms and dynamics of cell-type specification

On its path from a fertilized egg to one of the many cell types in a multicellular organism, a cell turns the blank canvas of its early embryonic state into a molecular profile fine-tuned to achieve a vital organismal function. This remarkable transformation emerges from the interplay between dynamically changing external signals, the cell's internal, variable state, and tremendously complex molecular machinery; we are only beginning to understand. Recently developed single-cell omics techniques have started to provide an unprecedented, comprehensive view of the molecular changes during cell-type specification and promise to reveal the underlying gene regulatory mechanism. The exponentially increasing amount of quantitative molecular data being created at the moment is slated to inform predictive, mathematical models. Such models can suggest novel ways to manipulate cell types experimentally, which has important biomedical applications. This review is meant to give the reader a starting point to participate in this exciting phase of molecular developmental biology. We first introduce some of the principal molecular players involved in cell-type specification and discuss the important organizing ability of biomolecular condensates, which has been discovered recently. We then review some of the most important single-cell omics methods and relevant findings they produced. We devote special attention to the dynamics of the molecular changes and discuss methods to measure them, most importantly lineage tracing. Finally, we introduce a conceptual framework that connects all molecular agents in a mathematical model and helps us make sense of the experimental data.

Mapping single-cell-resolution cell phylogeny reveals cell population dynamics during organ development

Mapping the cell phylogeny of a complex multicellular organism relies on somatic mutations accumulated from zygote to adult. Available cell barcoding methods can record about three mutations per barcode, enabling only low-resolution mapping of the cell phylogeny of complex organisms. Here we developed SMALT, a substitution mutation-aided lineage-tracing system that outperforms the available cell barcoding methods in mapping cell phylogeny. We applied SMALT to Drosophila melanogaster and obtained on average more than 20 mutations on a three-kilobase-pair barcoding sequence in early-adult cells. Using the barcoding mutations, we obtained high-quality cell phylogenetic trees, each comprising several thousand internal nodes with 84-93% median bootstrap support. The obtained cell phylogenies enabled a population genetic analysis that estimates the longitudinal dynamics of the number of actively dividing parental cells (Np) in each organ through development. The Np dynamics revealed the trajectory of cell births and provided insight into the balance of symmetric and asymmetric cell division.

The CRISPR-Cas toolbox for analytical and diagnostic assay development

Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) and CRISPR-associated (Cas) systems have revolutionized biological and biomedical sciences in many ways. The last few years have also seen tremendous interest in deploying the CRISPR-Cas toolbox for analytical and diagnostic assay development because CRISPR-Cas is one of the most powerful classes of molecular machineries for the recognition and manipulation of nucleic acids. In the short period of development, many CRISPR-enabled assays have already established critical roles in clinical diagnostics, biosensing, and bioimaging. We describe in this review the recent advances and design principles of CRISPR mediated analytical tools with an emphasis on the functional roles of CRISPR-Cas machineries as highly efficient binders and molecular scissors. We highlight the diverse engineering approaches for molecularly modifying CRISPR-Cas machineries and for devising better readout platforms. We discuss the potential roles of these new approaches and platforms in enhancing assay sensitivity, specificity, multiplexity, and clinical outcomes. By illustrating the biochemical and analytical processes, we hope this review will help guide the best use of the CRISPR-Cas toolbox in detecting, quantifying and imaging biologically and clinically important molecules and inspire new ideas, technological advances and engineering strategies for addressing real-world challenges such as the on-going COVID-19 pandemic.

Imaging developmental cell cycles

The last decade has seen a major expansion in development of live biosensors, the tools needed to genetically encode them into model organisms, and the microscopic techniques used to visualize them. When combined, these offer us powerful tools with which to make fundamental discoveries about complex biological processes. In this review, we summarize the availability of biosensors to visualize an essential cellular process, the cell cycle, and the techniques for single-cell tracking and quantification of these reporters. We also highlight studies investigating the connection of cellular behavior to the cell cycle, particularly through live imaging, and anticipate exciting discoveries with the combination of these technologies in developmental contexts.