The projected effect on insects, vertebrates, and plants of limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C

Stabilizing mechanisms enable dioecious trees to maintain synchrony in spring budburst under climate warming

Climate change could reduce dioecious plant fitness if the phenology of males and females responds differently to temperature. However, the extent to which spring phenological responses to climate differ between sexes in wind-pollinated dioecious trees remains poorly understood. Here, we combined ground observations with climate-controlled experiments to investigate sexual differences in spring budburst in Ginkgo biloba, Fraxinus chinensis, and Eucommia ulmoides. In 96% of in situ cases, male trees initiated budburst earlier than females, on average by 3.0 ± 0.4 d. This disparity was more pronounced in warmer regions. The experiment indicated that background climate is a key predictor of sexual disparity in budburst, with the largest differences observed in twigs originating from regions with higher mean annual temperatures and precipitation. However, these disparities declined in areas where mean annual temperatures exceeded 17.1°C, indicating nonlinear trends. This pattern aligns with the warming treatments, where sexual disparities decreased under spring warming of 2-10°C. These results suggest that while sexual disparities can be larger in warmer climates, dioecious trees possess stabilizing mechanisms, including photoperiod and chilling requirements, to maintain synchrony under warming conditions. Our findings enhance understanding of sex-specific phenological responses to climate change, with important implications for future species conservation and ecosystem management.

Elevated temperature magnifies the toxicity of imidacloprid in the collembolan, Folsomia candida

Global warming subjects soil organisms to elevated temperature stress, while simultaneously altering the detoxification processes for pollutants within these organisms. The combined stressors of increased temperature and pollutants may impose synergistic stress on soil fauna, necessitating detailed investigation. Here, we exposed Collembola (Folsomia candida) to imidacloprid (a neonicotinoid pesticide) in combination with a range of constant temperatures in a full-factorial experimental design to assess the integrated impacts on survival, growth, and bioaccumulation. The results revealed that high temperatures and imidacloprid synergistically inhibited the survival of F. candida. Under 6.4 mg/kg imidacloprid exposure, survival rates decreased by 41.38 % at 30.2 °C and 68.75 % at 30.5 °C, compared to the same temperature treatments without imidacloprid exposure. Bayesian model analysis confirmed a significant synergistic interaction between imidacloprid and temperature on survival. Interestingly, at elevated temperatures, the internal concentration of imidacloprid in F. candida significantly decreased, while the soil concentration of the insecticide remained stable. This suggests that the observed synergistic effect is not due to increased pollutant accumulation within F. candida at higher temperatures, but rather the exhaustion of energy resources needed for detoxification and thermal stress management. This dual-stressor-induced energy competition underpins the synergistic interactions observed. Our findings highlight the significant synergistic effects of high temperatures and imidacloprid on Collembola, underscoring an increased ecological risk under such conditions.

Functional safeguards for conservation: Identifying climate change refugia for frugivorous and nectarivorous birds in a degraded area of Colombia

Habitat loss and climate change are major drivers of biodiversity loss, but their synergistic effects and functional perspectives have to be better understood. We employed species distribution models under future contrasting socioeconomic scenarios to assess the impacts of climate change and human footprint on avian frugivore and nectarivore functional groups in the Magdalena Valley, a highly transformed and biodiverse region in Colombia. We constructed the functional groups based on a dissimilarity matrix with 16 anatomical and ecological traits. Two types of future climatic refugia (type 1: areas that will maintain the current climatic conditions and type 2: regions outside the current distribution area that will have the current climatic conditions) were identified to guide conservation efforts for these groups and associated ecosystem services. Of the 27 functional groups identified, 19 are projected to undergo range reductions of 1-75%, with an average upward shift of their climatic niches along the altitudinal gradient of 690 m. Large frugivores from intermediate elevations, such as toucans and cracids, as well as nectarivores with extreme adaptations and specializations, are expected to experience the most severe range reductions. Distributional and altitudinal shifts will lead to spatial reorganization of communities and a reduction or complete loss of functional group richness, particularly in lowland areas. This could impact ecosystem services relevant for degraded area restoration, such as seed dispersal, fruit availability, and pollination of specialized plant species with economic importance. The low representation of future climatic refugia within protected areas highlights the need to incorporate climate change trends into future conservation strategies for these landscapes.

Will terrestrial biomes survive in the face of greenhouse gas emissions spillover: Insights from G20 countries

The emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) presents localized concerns with far-reaching global repercussions, as the impacts of climate change extend beyond geographical boundaries. Despite global efforts, the cumulative effect of these endeavors falls short of the emission reduction benchmarks set by the Paris Agreement. Within this context, the study employs a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive frequency connectedness measure to examine GHG emission spillovers among G20 countries from 1971 to 2020. This method enables the analysis of connectedness intensity across both short and long time horizons. The findings reveal the time-varying nature of GHG emissions, with long-run connectedness contributing significantly more to total connectedness than short-term connectedness. The overall emission landscape remained largely unchanged until the Paris Agreement, with only slight declines observed later, including during the COVID-19 period. GHG spillovers notably impact terrestrial biome protection initiatives in G20 countries, particularly at lower quantiles. At the same time, temperature changes affect these initiatives primarily within the interquartile range, not at the extreme frequencies. Additionally, the spillover effects are asymmetric between large and smaller economies. The findings will be important for redefining GHG emission protocol policies and actionable standards for G20 countries.

Assessment of climate change impact on landscape tree distribution and sustainability in South Korea using MaxEnt-based modeling

The rapidly changing climate is impacting species globally at an unprecedented rate, including humans. Consequently, extensive research is being conducted on the impacts of climate change on indigenous and vulnerable species. However, landscape trees, which are cultivated and managed by humans, receive less attention despite their significant role in urban environments. Landscape tree also have specific climatic ranges and environmental requirements, making them susceptible to climate change. In this study, we predicted the future sustainability of three native landscape trees (Stewartia koreana, Betula ermanii, and Taxus cuspidata) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. A time-series analysis of suitability was conducted, and the resulting maps were overlaid to classify regions of suitability. The findings indicate a general northward shift in climate suitability and a potential reduction in long-term suitable areas for all three species. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, potential suitable area for S. koreana increased, while those for B. ermanii, T. cuspidata decreased by the 2090s. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, suitable areas for S. koreana, B. ermanii, T. cuspidata decreased by 33.6%, 98.9%, and 90.1%, respectively. The climate suitability classification ("Sustainable suitability", "Risk", "Inflow", "Lost", and "Variable" regions) effectively identified areas of sustainability and risk, as well as regions requiring management. A notable decline in "Sustainable suitability" regions, which remained suitable from the present to the 2090s, was observed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to SSP2-4.5. The methods utilized in this study offer valuable insights for future landscape planning and conservation. This research underscores the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate potential economic and ecological impacts of climate change by utilizing species distribution models for sustainable landscape planning and tree conservation.

Distribution of Population Sizes in Metapopulations of Threatened Organisms-Implications for Conservation of Orchids

Species are disappearing worldwide, and it is likely that the rate of their disappearance will increase. The most important factors responsible for this are assumed to be changes in climate and land use. To determine the probability of extinction of a given species, it must be viewed as a metapopulation composed of many populations. In plants, seeds are spread by wind or water (passive dispersers), unlike active dispersers, which can actively look for a suitable site of their species. Thus, while active dispersers can locate a suitable site, passive dispersers often fail to arrive at a suitable site. The following question arises: is it better for the survival of a metapopulation of passive dispersers to concentrate on conserving a few large populations, each of which will produce many propagules, or on many small populations, each of which will produce only few propagules? Here, we address the question of which of these strategies will maximize the likelihood of the survival of such a metapopulation, using orchids as a model. We concluded that small populations should be preferentially preserved. Small populations are more numerous and more likely to occur more widely in the region studied and therefore a larger proportion of the seeds they produce is more likely to land in suitable habitats than that produced by the fewer large populations. For conservation, there is a possibility to extend the results to other taxa. However, this must be carried out with caution and must consider the taxon in question.

Variable impacts of land-based climate mitigation on habitat area for vertebrate diversity

Pathways to achieving net zero carbon emissions commonly involve deploying reforestation, afforestation, and bioenergy crops across millions of hectares of land. It is often assumed that by helping to mitigate climate change, these strategies indirectly benefit biodiversity. Here, we modeled the climate and habitat requirements of 14,234 vertebrate species and show that the impact of these strategies on species' habitat area tends not to arise through climate mitigation, but rather through habitat conversion. Across locations, reforestation tends to provide species more habitat through both land-cover change and climate mitigation, whereas habitat loss from afforestation and bioenergy cropping typically outweighs the climate mitigation benefits. This work shows how and where land-based mitigation strategies can be deployed without inadvertently reducing the area of habitat for global biodiversity.

Does Reproductive Success in Orchids Affect the Evolution of Their Number of Flowers?

Species are disappearing worldwide, and changes in climate and land use are commonly assumed to be the most important causes. Organisms are counteracting the negative effects of environmental factors on their survival by evolving various defence strategies, which positively affect their fitness. Here, the question addressed is: can evolution shape these defence strategies so that they positively affect the fitness of an organism? This question is complex and depends on the taxa and environmental factors. Therefore, here, only a special case of this question is studied in deceptive species of orchids: reproductive success (RS, ratio of the number of fruits to the number of flowers produced by a plant during the whole season), a commonly used measure of fitness is used to develop a model describing how RS affects the number of flowers, n, of a plant. This model predicts that: (i) the resulting relationship between RS and n is a positively skewed parabola, (ii) the distribution of the numbers of individuals with a specific number (n) of flowers, NI(n), also resembles a parabola and is also positively skewed, and that (iii) the peak of the distribution of NI is to the left of the peak of RS. A large set of data is presented that supports these predictions. If the data set is small, the concave positively skewed parabolic RS-n dependence is obscured by other factors.

Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to become a major driver of biodiversity loss, destabilizing the ecosystems on which human society depends. As the planet rapidly warms, the disruption of ecological interactions among populations, species and their environment, will likely drive positive feedback loops, accelerating the pace and magnitude of biodiversity losses. We propose that, even without invoking such amplifying feedback, biodiversity loss should increase nonlinearly with warming because of the non-uniform distribution of biodiversity. Whether these non-uniformities are the uneven distribution of populations across a species' thermal niche, or the uneven distribution of thermal niche limits among species within an ecological community, we show that in both cases, the resulting clustering in population warming tolerances drives nonlinear increases in the risk to biodiversity. We discuss how fundamental constraints on species' physiologies and geographical distributions give rise to clustered warming tolerances, and how population responses to changing climates could variously temper, delay or intensify nonlinear dynamics. We argue that nonlinear increases in risks to biodiversity should be the null expectation under warming, and highlight the empirical research needed to understand the causes, commonness and consequences of clustered warming tolerances to better predict where, when and why nonlinear biodiversity losses will occur.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

An African perspective to biodiversity conservation in the twenty-first century

Africa boasts high biodiversity while also being home to some of the largest and fastest-growing human populations. Although the current environmental footprint of Africa is low compared to other continents, the population of Africa is estimated at around 1.5 billion inhabitants, representing nearly 18% of the world's total population. Consequently, Africa's rich biodiversity is under threat, yet only 19% of the landscape and 17% of the seascape are under any form of protection. To effectively address this issue and align with the Convention on Biological Diversity's ambitious '30 by 30' goal, which seeks to protect 30% of the world's land and oceans by 2030, substantial funding and conservation measures are urgently required. In response to this critical challenge, as scientists and conservationists working in Africa, we propose five recommendations for future directions aimed at enhancing biodiversity conservation for the betterment of African society: (i) accelerate data collection, data sharing and analytics for informed policy and decision-making; (ii) innovate education and capacity building for future generations; (iii) enhance and expand protected areas, ecological networks and foundational legal frameworks; (iv) unlock creative funding channels for cutting-edge conservation initiatives; and (v) integrate indigenous and local knowledge into forward-thinking conservation strategies. By implementing these recommendations, we believe Africa can make significant strides towards preserving its unique biodiversity, while fostering a healthier society, and contributing to global conservation efforts.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

Responsiveness to cold snaps by turtle embryos depends on exposure timing and duration

Characterizing how organisms respond to transient temperatures may further our understanding of their susceptibility to climate change. Past studies in the freshwater turtle, Trachemys scripta, have demonstrated that the timing and duration of heat waves can have major implications for the response of genes involved in gonadal development and the production of female hatchlings. Yet, no study has considered how the response of these genes to transient cold snap exposure may affect gonadal development and the production of males. We investigated how cold snap timing affects gonadal gene expression in T. scripta embryos and how the duration of an early cold snap influences the resulting hatchling sex ratios. Results show that responsiveness to cold changes rapidly across development, such that genes that responded when exposure began on incubation day 14 responded differently when exposure occurred just four or eight days later. Sex ratio data revealed that embryos experiencing an early cold snap also require a long exposure (>20 days) before most commit to testis development, suggesting that warm baseline temperatures may lower their sensitivity to later cold snap exposures. These results highlight how individual responses to incubation temperature can change rapidly across development in turtles and have important effects on sex ratios.

Collapse of an insular bird species driven by a decrease in rainfall

Arid island environments harbour a unique biota characterised to have adaptive features that enable them to thrive in such harsh habitats. However, our understanding of how anthropogenic climate change compromises the biodiversity and sustainability of these ecosystems is greatly unknown. Here we used fine-grained field data to evaluate the effects of extreme weather on the population size, distribution, and habitat preferences of an endemic bird species inhabiting an arid Atlantic island, across two temporal windows spanning approximately 20 years (2005-2024). Population size declined sharply (63 %-70 %) between periods, according to a distance-based sampling design and a habitat suitability modelling approach, with the number of individuals estimated in 2024 being 4650 (CI 95 %: 3600-5950) and 4150 (CI 95 %: 3600-4800) respectively. The density of this species in 2024 was reduced by approximately three times compared to the previous study period. The results revealed that in 2024 a larger island area (246 km2 and 514 km2) was necessary to encompass 50 % and 75 % of all individuals of this species, respectively, compared to the previous period (195 km2 and 434 km2). Such a population collapse was associated with the decrease in rainfall on the island, which is closely related to the reproductive success in this species. We recorded a pattern of continuous decrease in rainfall since 2005-2006, which included several extremely dry years immediately before the 2024 study. We also found strong evidence for the population decline of other native bird species of the same foraging guild. Overall, our data emphasizes the significance of recurrent and extreme climatic events on arid island bird species in driving population declines and reducing their distribution ranges; and highlights how fragile such unique taxa can be under longer dry periods, with uncertain consequences for their future viability.

Identifying species traits that predict vulnerability to climate change

Accurately predicting the vulnerabilities of species to climate change requires a more detailed understanding of the functional and life-history traits that make some species more susceptible to declines and extinctions in shifting climates. This is because existing trait-based correlates of extinction risk from climate and environmental disturbances vary widely, often being idiosyncratic and context dependent. A powerful solution is to analyse the growing volume of biological data on changes in species ranges and abundances using process-explicit ecological models that run at fine temporal and spatial scales and across large geographical extents. These simulation-based approaches can unpack complex interactions between species' traits and climate and other threats. This enables species-responses to climatic change to be contextualised and integrated into future biodiversity projections and to be used to formulate and assess conservation policy goals. By providing a more complete understanding of the traits and contexts that regulate different responses of species to climate change, these process-driven approaches are likely to result in more certain predictions of the species that are most vulnerable to climate change.

Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable

Changes in climate and land use are the most often mentioned factors responsible for the current decline in species diversity. To reduce the effect of these factors, we need reliable predictions of future species distributions. This is usually done by utilizing species distribution models (SDMs) based on expected climate. Here we explore the accuracy of such projections: we use orchid (Orchidaceae) recordings and environmental (mainly climatic) data from the years 1901-1950 in SDMs to predict maps of potential species distributions in 1980-2014. This should enable us to compare the predictions of species distributions in 1980-2014, based on records of species distribution in the years 1901-1950, with real data in the 1980-2014 period. We found that the predictions of the SDMs often differ from reality in this experiment. The results clearly indicate that SDM predictions of future species distributions as a reaction to climate change must be treated with caution.

Impacts of climate change and human activities on three Glires pests of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

BACKGROUND

The range of Glires is influenced by human activities and climate change. However, the extent to which human activities and environmental changes have contributed to this relationship remains unclear. We examined alterations in the distribution changes and driving factors of the Himalayan marmot, plateau pika, and plateau zokor on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and a geographical detector (Geodetector).

RESULTS

The MaxEnt model showed that the contribution rates of the human footprint index (HFI) to the distribution patterns of the three types of Glires were 46.70%, 58.70%, and 59.50%, respectively. The Geodetector results showed that the distribution pattern of the Himalayan marmot on the QTP was influenced by altitude and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The distribution patterns for plateau pikas and plateau zokors were driven by HFI and NDVI. Climate has played a substantial role in shaping suitable habitats for these three Glires on the QTP. Their suitable area is expected to decrease over the next 30-50 years, along with their niche breadth and overlap. Future suitable habitats for the three Glires tended to shift toward higher latitudes on the QTP.

CONCLUSION

These findings underscore the impacts of environmental and human factors on the distribution of the three Glires on the QTP. They have enhanced our understanding of the intricate relationships between Glires niches and environments. This can aid in identifying necessary interventions for developing effective early warning systems and prevention strategies to mitigate Glires infestations and plague epidemics on the QTP. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Assessing the influence of environmental regulation on carbon sequestration in China: Towards a sustainable future

Carbon sequestration is vital to maintaining carbon neutrality and mitigating climate change's impact on humans and the environment. As the government's role in eco-advocacy is primarily designed to safeguard the environment, this paper discusses the impact of government environmental regulations on carbon sequestration. By analyzing 286 cities from 2000 to 2019 in China, we propose that government environmental regulation can lead to a 0.77% increase in carbon sequestration. Additionally, industrial agglomeration and industrial structure advancement are regarded as viable channels. As a result of the differences in city types, government intervention, and public concern across different cities, the impact is likely to vary as well.

Reconciling the EU forest, biodiversity, and climate strategies

Forests provide important ecosystem services (ESs), including climate change mitigation, local climate regulation, habitat for biodiversity, wood and non-wood products, energy, and recreation. Simultaneously, forests are increasingly affected by climate change and need to be adapted to future environmental conditions. Current legislation, including the European Union (EU) Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and national laws, aims to protect forest landscapes, enhance ESs, adapt forests to climate change, and leverage forest products for climate change mitigation and the bioeconomy. However, reconciling all these competing demands poses a tremendous task for policymakers, forest managers, conservation agencies, and other stakeholders, especially given the uncertainty associated with future climate impacts. Here, we used process-based ecosystem modeling and robust multi-criteria optimization to develop forest management portfolios that provide multiple ESs across a wide range of climate scenarios. We included constraints to strictly protect 10% of Europe's land area and to provide stable harvest levels under every climate scenario. The optimization showed only limited options to improve ES provision within these constraints. Consequently, management portfolios suffered from low diversity, which contradicts the goal of multi-functionality and exposes regions to significant risk due to a lack of risk diversification. Additionally, certain regions, especially those in the north, would need to prioritize timber provision to compensate for reduced harvests elsewhere. This conflicts with EU LULUCF targets for increased forest carbon sinks in all member states and prevents an equal distribution of strictly protected areas, introducing a bias as to which forest ecosystems are more protected than others. Thus, coordinated strategies at the European level are imperative to address these challenges effectively. We suggest that the implementation of the EU Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and targets for forest carbon sinks require complementary measures to alleviate the conflicting demands on forests.

Global patterns of human-wildlife spatial associations and implications for differentiating conservation strategies

Understanding the global patterns of human and wildlife spatial associations is essential for pragmatic conservation implementation, yet analytical foundations and indicator-based assessments that would further this understanding are lacking. We integrated the global distributions of 30,664 terrestrial vertebrates and human pressures to map human-nature index (HNI) categories that indicate the extent and intensity of human-wildlife interactions. Along the 2 dimensions of biodiversity and human activity, the HNI allowed placement of terrestrial areas worldwide in one of 4 HNI categories: anthropic (human-dominated areas), wildlife-dominated (little human influence and rich in wildlife), co-occurring (substantial presence of humans and wildlife), and harsh-environment (limited presence of humans and wildlife) areas. The HNI varied considerably among taxonomic groups, and the leading driver of HNI was global climate patterns. Co-occurring regions were the most prevalent (35.9%), and wildlife-dominated and anthropic regions encompassed 26.45% and 6.50% of land area, respectively. Our results highlight the necessity for customizing conservation strategies to regions based on human-wildlife spatial associations and the distribution of existing protected area networks. Human activity and biodiversity should be integrated for complementary strategies to support conservation toward ambitious and pragmatic 30×30 goals.

A climate-induced tree species bottleneck for forest management in Europe

Large pulses of tree mortality have ushered in a major reorganization of Europe's forest ecosystems. To initiate a robust next generation of trees, the species that are planted today need to be climatically suitable throughout the entire twenty-first century. Here we developed species distribution models for 69 European tree species based on occurrence data from 238,080 plot locations to investigate the option space for current forest management in Europe. We show that the average pool of tree species continuously suitable throughout the century is smaller than that under current and end-of-century climate conditions, creating a tree species bottleneck for current management. If the need for continuous climate suitability throughout the lifespan of a tree planted today is considered, climate change shrinks the tree species pool available to management by between 33% and 49% of its current values (40% and 54% of potential end-of-century values), under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) and severe (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) climate change, respectively. This bottleneck could have strong negative impacts on timber production, carbon storage and biodiversity conservation, as only 3.18, 3.53 and 2.56 species of high potential for providing these functions remain suitable throughout the century on average per square kilometre in Europe. Our results indicate that the option space for silviculture is narrowing substantially because of climate change and that an important adaptation strategy in forestry-creating mixed forests-might be curtailed by widespread losses of climatically suitable tree species.

The exposure of the world's mountains to global change drivers

Global change affects mountain areas at different levels, with some mountains being more exposed to change in climate or environmental conditions and others acting as local refugia. We quantified the exposure of the world's mountains to three drivers of change, climate, land use, and human population density, using two spatial-temporal metrics (velocity and magnitude of change). We estimated the acceleration of change for these drivers by comparing past (1975-2005) vs. future (2020-2050) exposure, and we also compared exposure in lowlands vs. mountains. We found Africa's tropical mountains facing the highest future exposure to multiple drivers of change, thus requiring targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies to preserve biodiversity. European and North America's mountains, in contrast, experience more limited exposure to global change and could act as local refugia for biodiversity. This knowledge can be used to prioritize local-scale interventions and planning long-term monitoring to reduce the risks faced by mountain biodiversity.

Projected decline in European bumblebee populations in the twenty-first century

Habitat degradation and climate change are globally acting as pivotal drivers of wildlife collapse, with mounting evidence that this erosion of biodiversity will accelerate in the following decades1-3. Here, we quantify the past, present and future ecological suitability of Europe for bumblebees, a threatened group of pollinators ranked among the highest contributors to crop production value in the northern hemisphere4-8. We demonstrate coherent declines of bumblebee populations since 1900 over most of Europe and identify future large-scale range contractions and species extirpations under all future climate and land use change scenarios. Around 38-76% of studied European bumblebee species currently classified as 'Least Concern' are projected to undergo losses of at least 30% of ecologically suitable territory by 2061-2080 compared to 2000-2014. All scenarios highlight that parts of Scandinavia will become potential refugia for European bumblebees; it is however uncertain whether these areas will remain clear of additional anthropogenic stressors not accounted for in present models. Our results underline the critical role of global change mitigation policies as effective levers to protect bumblebees from manmade transformation of the biosphere.

Upward and Poleward (but Not Phenological) Shifts in a Forest Tenebrionid Beetle in Response to Global Change in a Mediterranean Area

There is an increasing volume of literature on the impact of climate change on insects. However, there is an urgent need for more empirical research on underrepresented groups in key areas, including species for which the effects of climatic change may seem less evident. The present paper illustrates the results of a study on a common forest tenebrionid beetle, Accanthopus velikensis (Piller and Mitterpacher, 1783), at a regional scale within the Mediterranean basin. Using a large set of records from Latium (central Italy), changes in the median values of elevation, latitude, longitude, and phenology between two periods (1900-1980 vs. 1981-2022) were tested. Records of A. velikensis in the period 1981-2022 showed median values of elevation and latitude higher than those recorded in the first period. Thus, in response to rising temperatures, the species became more frequent at higher elevation and in northern places. By contrast, A. velikensis does not seem to have changed its activity pattern in response to increased temperatures, but this might be an artifact due to the inclusion of likely overwintering individuals. The results obtained for A. velikensis indicate that even thermally euryoecious species can show changes in their elevational and latitudinal distribution, and that poleward shifts can be apparent even within a small latitudinal gradient.

Two Growing-Season Warming Partly Promoted Growth but Decreased Reproduction and Ornamental Value of Impatiens oxyanthera

Climate warming profoundly affects the vegetative growth, flowering phenology and sexual reproduction of plants; therefore, it affects the ornamental value of wild flowers. Despite this, the extent and mechanism of the impact remain unclear. Here, we conducted a warming experiment for two growing seasons (increases of 1.89 °C in 2017 and 2.37 °C in 2018) with infrared heaters to examine the effects of warming on the ornamental value of the wild flower Impatiens oxyanthera, endemic to China, in Mount Emei. We evaluated the comprehensive ornamental value based on plant morphology and flowering characteristics using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and disentangled the impact of the two traits on ornamental value using principal component analysis (PCA) and the partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) under ambient and warming treatments. We hypothesized that warming would reduce the ornamental value of I. oxyanthera in terms of plant morphology and flowering traits. Our results showed that warming significantly decreased plant height and crown width and increased branch number and single-leaf area. Warming also decreased vexillum length, corolla tube length, nectar spur length and pedicel length. In addition, warming shortened flowering duration per plant and reduced flower number, while there was no significant effect on flower longevity and flower color at full-bloom stage between the control and warming treatment. Therefore, the comprehensive ornamental value under warming was lower than that under the control. Pedicel length, flower color, flower longevity and flowering duration per plant were the main factors affecting the comprehensive ornamental value. The PLS-SEM showed that warming had an indirect negative effect on ornamental value via direct negative effects on flowering traits. Collectively, these results indicate that, although promoting vegetative growth, short-term warming significantly decreased the ornamental value of I. oxyanthera due to warming-caused smaller flowers and shorter flowering duration.

Selection of climate variables in ant species distribution models: case study in South Korea

The selection of explanatory variables is important in modeling prediction of changes in species distribution in response to climate change. In this study, we evaluated the importance of variable selection in species distribution models. We compared two different types of models for predicting the distribution of ant species: temperature-only and both temperature and precipitation. Ants were collected at 343 forest sites across South Korea from 2006 through 2009. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to predict the future distribution of 16 species that showed significant responses to changes in climatic factors (temperature and/or precipitation). Four types of GAMs were constructed: temperature, temperature with interaction of precipitation, temperature and precipitation without interaction, and temperature and precipitation with interaction. Most species displayed similar results between the temperatureonly and the temperature and precipitation models. The results for predicted changes in species richness were different from the temperature-only model. This indicates higher uncertainty in the prediction of species richness, which is obtained by combining the prediction results of distribution change for each species, than in the prediction of distribution change. The turnover rate of the ant assemblages was predicted to increase with decreases in temperature and increases in elevation, which was consistent with other studies. Finally, our results showed that the prediction of the distribution or diversity of organisms responding to climate change is uncertain because of the high variability of the model outputs induced by the variables used in the models.

Spatio-temporal modelling suggests that some dung beetle species (Coleoptera: Geotrupidae) may respond to global warming by boosting dung removal

In the current framework of changes to the global climate, information on the thermal tolerance of dung beetles is crucial to understand how they might cope with increases in land temperature in terms of survival and ecosystem service provision. In this spatio-temporal modelling study, we investigated the thermal tolerance and effect of temperature changes on dung removal by three dung beetle species (Coleoptera: Geotrupidae) living within the 600-1400 m altitudinal belt in the Italian Alps. We chose large tunneler beetles because of their pivotal role in dung removal and nutrient recycling, important ecosystem services for maintaining the viability and profitability of the Alpine pastoral system. Our study used experimental data on dung removal at different temperatures to predict changes to this ecosystem service in the future considering different climatic scenarios and changes in land use for the specific study area. The results show that the temperature increases incurred between 1981 and 2005 may have boosted rates of spring dung removal across the entire study area (expressed as average dung removal per pair per month), partially compensating for the reduction in grassland extent within pasture-based livestock farming systems. Despite the limitations related to modelling future climate change scenarios and uncertainties deriving from several interacting factors (e.g., the sensitivity of large-bodied species to land-use changes), our results suggest that the predicted increases in temperature over the next 80 years would continue to boost dung removal, revealing a resilience of this service. The increase in dung removal rates, for all three species, is mainly related to the most extreme scenario of carbon emissions and for the months spanning from May to October of the interval 2041-2100. Focusing on large tunnelers and adopting a dynamic approach that considers changes in dung removal over space and time can assist ecosystem service conservation planning.

How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.

Host-Parasitoid Phenology, Distribution, and Biological Control under Climate Change

Climate change raises a serious threat to global entomofauna-the foundation of many ecosystems-by threatening species preservation and the ecosystem services they provide. Already, changes in climate-warming-are causing (i) sharp phenological mismatches among host-parasitoid systems by reducing the window of host susceptibility, leading to early emergence of either the host or its associated parasitoid and affecting mismatched species' fitness and abundance; (ii) shifting arthropods' expansion range towards higher altitudes, and therefore migratory pest infestations are more likely; and (iii) reducing biological control effectiveness by natural enemies, leading to potential pest outbreaks. Here, we provided an overview of the warming consequences on biodiversity and functionality of agroecosystems, highlighting the vital role that phenology plays in ecology. Also, we discussed how phenological mismatches would affect biological control efficacy, since an accurate description of stage differentiation (metamorphosis) of a pest and its associated natural enemy is crucial in order to know the exact time of the host susceptibility/suitability or stage when the parasitoids are able to optimize their parasitization or performance. Campaigns regarding landscape structure/heterogeneity, reduction of pesticides, and modelling approaches are urgently needed in order to safeguard populations of natural enemies in a future warmer world.

Insect pollinators can unlock an annual monetary value of more than US $100 million from crop production in Rwanda

Insect pollinators provide a natural ecosystem service to more than 80% of known flowering plants, many of which are part of our diet. However, their importance in Africa and an agriculture-dependent country like Rwanda has yet to receive attention. This encumbers policy formulation and investments in insect pollinators as a strategic agronomic input. Meanwhile, Rwanda cultivates crops that can benefit significantly from insect pollinators for superior agronomic outputs. To uncover this, we characterized the dependence of the crop production subsector on insect pollinators. Using the bioeconomic approach, we assessed the total economic value and the value due to insect pollinators of crops cultivated in Rwanda. We also evaluated the crop's production value per ton and whether production would meet consumption demands in the complete absence of insect pollinators. Using 71 representative crops currently grown in Rwanda, we found a direct dependency of 62% on insect pollinators. Of 32 representative crops used for economic valuation in two years (2014 and 2020), their total monetary value is estimated at $2.551 billion to $2.788 billion. Direct insect pollinator-dependent crops accounted for 20% (2014) to 18% (2020) of this value, with the share attributed to insect pollinators above $100 million. The sector's vulnerability to insect pollinators decreased from 7.3% in 2014 to 4.3% in 2020. The mean production value per ton of the direct insect pollinator-dependent crops was found to be higher in 2014 before declining in 2020. Using 21 representative crops from 2014 to 2020, we found that many direct insect pollinator-dependent crops will struggle to meet consumption demands in the complete absence of all suitable insect pollinators. Finally, we propose interventions and future research that could be undertaken. These insights are a critical first step to propel the government to act on insect pollination to support its food security agenda.

Controllable-morphology polymer blend photonic metafoam for radiative cooling

Incorporating radiative cooling photonic structures into the cooling systems of buildings presents a novel strategy to mitigate global warming and boost global carbon neutrality. Photonic structures with excellent solar reflection and thermal emission can be obtained by a rational combination of different materials. The current preparation strategies of radiative cooling materials are dominated by doping inorganic micro-nano particles into polymers, which usually possess insufficient solar reflectance. Here, a porous polymer metafoam was prepared with polycarbonate (PC) and polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) using a simple thermally induced phase separation method. The metafoam exhibits strong solar reflectivity (97%), superior thermal emissivity (91%), and low thermal conductivity (46 mW m-1 K-1) due to the controllable morphology of the randomly dispersed light-scattering air voids. Cooling tests demonstrate that the metafoam could reduce the average temperature by 5.2 °C and 10.2 °C during the daytime and nighttime, respectively. In addition, the simulation of a cooling energy system of buildings indicates that the metafoam can save 3.2-26.7 MJ m-2 per year in different cities, which is an energy-saving percentage of 14.7-41%. The excellent comprehensive performances, including the passive cooling property, thermal insulation and self-cleaning of the metafoam makes it appropriate for practical outdoor applications, exhibiting its great potential as an energy-saving building cooling material.

Predicting the Responses of Functional Leaf Traits to Global Warming: An In Situ Temperature Manipulation Design Using Iris pumila L

Phenotypic plasticity is widely acknowledged as one of the most common solutions for coping with novel environmental conditions following climate change. However, it is less known whether the current amounts of trait plasticity, which is sufficient for matching with the contemporary climate, will be adequate when global temperatures exceed historical levels. We addressed this issue by exploring the responses of functional and structural leaf traits in Iris pumila clonal individuals to experimentally increased temperatures (~1.5 °C) using an open top chamber (OTC) design. We determined the phenotypic values of the specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, specific leaf water content, and leaf thickness in the leaves sampled from the same clone inside and outside of the OTC deployed on it, over seasons and years within two natural populations. We analyzed the data using a repeated multivariate analysis of variance, which primarily focusses on the profiles (reaction norms (RNs)) of a variable gathered from the same individual at several different time points. We found that the mean RNs of all analyzed traits were parallel regardless of experienced temperatures, but differed in the level and the shape. The populations RNs were similar as well. As the amount of plasticity in the analyzed leaf trait was adequate for coping with elevated temperatures inside the OTCs, we predict that it will be also sufficient for responding to increased temperatures if they exceed the 1.5 °C target.

Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally

Climate change is already exposing species to dangerous temperatures driving widespread population and geographical contractions. However, little is known about how these risks of thermal exposure will expand across species' existing geographical ranges over time as climate change continues. Here, using geographical data for approximately 36,000 marine and terrestrial species and climate projections to 2100, we show that the area of each species' geographical range at risk of thermal exposure will expand abruptly. On average, more than 50% of the increase in exposure projected for a species will occur in a single decade. This abruptness is partly due to the rapid pace of future projected warming but also because the greater area available at the warm end of thermal gradients constrains species to disproportionately occupy sites close to their upper thermal limit. These geographical constraints on the structure of species ranges operate both on land and in the ocean and mean that, even in the absence of amplifying ecological feedbacks, thermally sensitive species may be inherently vulnerable to sudden warming-driven collapse. With higher levels of warming, the number of species passing these thermal thresholds, and at risk of abrupt and widespread thermal exposure, increases, doubling from less than 15% to more than 30% between 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C of global warming. These results indicate that climate threats to thousands of species are expected to expand abruptly in the coming decades, thereby highlighting the urgency of mitigation and adaptation actions.

May future climate change promote the invasion of the marsh frog? An integrative thermo-physiological study

Climate change and invasive species are two major drivers of biodiversity loss and their interaction may lead to unprecedented further loss. Invasive ectotherms can be expected to tolerate temperature variation because of a broad thermal tolerance and may even benefit from warmer temperatures in their new ranges that better match their thermal preference. Multi-trait studies provide a valuable approach to elucidate the influence of temperature on the invasion process and offer insights into how climatic factors may facilitate or hinder the spread of invasive ectotherms. We here used marsh frogs, Pelophylax ridibundus, a species that is invading large areas of Western Europe but whose invasive potential has been underestimated. We measured the maximal and minimal temperatures to sustain physical activity, the preferred temperature, and the thermal dependence of their stamina and jumping performance in relation to the environmental temperatures observed in their invasive range. Our results showed that marsh frogs can withstand body temperatures that cover 100% of the annual temperature variation in the pond they live in and 77% of the observed current annual air temperature variation. Their preferred body temperature and performance optima were higher than the average temperature in their pond and the average air temperature experienced under the shade. These data suggest that invasive marsh frogs may benefit from a warmer climate. Broad thermal tolerances, combined with high thermal preferences and traits maximised at high temperatures, may allow this species to expand their activity period and colonise underexploited shaded habitat, thereby promoting their invasion success.

Threats from climate change for lizard species of a Neotropical mountain range

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, especially for species of high altitudes. However, biodiversity conservation policies that consider mitigation strategies for long-term climate impacts are still scarce. To analyze the effects of climate change on lizards in tropical mountainous areas, we selected two species from Serra do Espinhaço (Brazil) with different thermoregulation strategies and distributions (Tropidurus montanus and Rhachisaurus brachylepis). Serra do Espinhaço mountain range is recognized as an important center of endemism and can act as a refuge for species that manage to survive climate change. We produce models of environmental suitability from bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic variables, and create projections for the present and for the year 2070 under an optimistic (RCP 4.5) and a pessimistic (RCP 8.5) climatic scenario. The results indicate that both future climate scenarios foresee a reduction of areas of environmental suitability for the studied species, but especially for the restricted distribution one (R. brachylepis). Although our results indicate that the studied species are recorded in areas of integral protection that possess climatic stability, the future will see a reduction of areas with environmental suitability, especially under the pessimistic scenario.

Scenarios of change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates

Mountains are among the natural systems most affected by climate change, and mountain mammals are considered particularly imperiled, given their high degree of specialization to narrow tolerance bands of environmental conditions. Climate change mitigation policies, such as the Paris Agreement, are essential to stem climate change impacts on natural systems. But how significant is the Paris Agreement to the survival of mountain mammals? We investigated how alternative emission scenarios may determine change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates in 2050. We based our predictions of future change in species niches based on how species have responded to past environmental changes, focusing on the probabilities of niche shrink and niche stability. We found that achieving the Paris Agreement's commitments would substantially reduce climate instability for mountain species. Specifically, limiting global warming to below 1.5°C would reduce the probability of niche shrinkage by 4% compared with a high-emission scenario. Globally, carnivores showed greater niche shrinkage than ungulates, whereas ungulates were more likely to shift their niches (i.e., face a level of climate change that allows adaptation). Twenty-three species threatened by climate change according to the IUCN Red List had greater niche contraction than other species we analyzed (3% higher on average). We therefore argue that climate mitigation policies must be coupled with rapid species-specific conservation intervention and sustainable land-use policies to avoid high risk of loss of already vulnerable species.

Human appropriation of net primary production as driver of change in landscape-scale vertebrate richness

Aim

Land use is the most pervasive driver of biodiversity loss. Predicting its impact on species richness (SR) is often based on indicators of habitat loss. However, the degradation of habitats, especially through land-use intensification, also affects species. Here, we evaluate whether an integrative metric of land-use intensity, the human appropriation of net primary production, is correlated with the decline of SR in used landscapes across the globe.

Location

Global.

Time period

Present.

Major taxa studied

Birds, mammals and amphibians.

Methods

Based on species range maps (spatial resolution: 20 km × 20 km) and an area-of-habitat approach, we calibrated a "species-energy model" by correlating the SR of three groups of vertebrates with net primary production and biogeographical covariables in "wilderness" areas (i.e., those where available energy is assumed to be still at pristine levels). We used this model to project the difference between pristine SR and the SR corresponding to the energy remaining in used landscapes (i.e., SR loss expected owing to human energy extraction outside wilderness areas). We validated the projected species loss by comparison with the realized and impending loss reconstructed from habitat conversion and documented by national Red Lists.

Results

Species-energy models largely explained landscape-scale variation of mapped SR in wilderness areas (adjusted R 2-values: 0.79-0.93). Model-based projections of SR loss were lower, on average, than reconstructed and documented ones, but the spatial patterns were correlated significantly, with stronger correlation in mammals (Pearson's r = 0.68) than in amphibians (r = 0.60) and birds (r = 0.57).

Main conclusions

Our results suggest that the human appropriation of net primary production is a useful indicator of heterotrophic species loss in used landscapes, hence we recommend its inclusion in models based on species-area relationships to improve predictions of land-use-driven biodiversity loss.

Optimizing protected areas to boost the conservation of key protected wildlife in China

To meet the challenge of biodiversity loss and reach the targets of the proposed Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, the Chinese government updated the list of national key protected wildlife in 2021 and has been continually expanding the protected areas (PAs). However, the status of protected wildlife in PAs remains unclear. In this study, we conducted a national assessment of the status of protected wildlife and suggested an optimization plan to overcome these shortcomings. From 1988 to 2021, the number of protected species almost doubled, and the area of PAs increased by 2.4 times, covering over 92.8% of the protected species. Nonetheless, 70.8% of the protected species are still not effectively protected by PAs, with some having less than 10% of their habitat included in PAs. Despite the significant addition of amphibians and reptiles to the latest protection list, they are the fewest species and are the least covered by PAs compared with birds and mammals. To fix these gaps, we systematically optimized the current PAs network by adding another 10.0% of China's land area as PAs, which resulted in 37.6% coverage of protected species' habitats in PAs. In addition, 26 priority areas were identified. Our research aimed to identify gaps in current conservation policies and suggest optimization solutions to facilitate wildlife conservation planning in China. In general, updating the list of key protected wildlife species and systematically optimizing PA networks are essential and applicable to other countries facing biodiversity loss.

Design of biomass-based N, S co-doped porous carbon via a straightforward post-treatment strategy for enhanced CO2 capture performance

Biomass-based adsorbents are considered to have great potential for CO₂ capture due to their low cost, high efficiency and exceptional sustainability. The aim of this work is to design a simple method for preparing biomass-based adsorbents with abundant active sites and large numbers of narrow micropores, so as to enhance CO₂ capture performance. Herein, N, S co-doped porous carbon (NSPC) was created utilizing walnut shell-based microporous carbon (WSMC) as the main framework and thiourea as N/S dopant through physical grinding and post-treatment process at a moderate temperature without any other reagents and steps. By altering the post-treatment parameters, a series of porous carbons with varying physico-chemical properties were prepared to discuss the roles of microporosity and N/S functional groups in CO₂ adsorption. NSPC with narrow micropore volume of 0.74 cm³ g^-1, N content of 4.89 % and S contents of 0.71 % demonstrated the highest CO₂ adsorption capacity of 7.26 (0 °C) and 5.51 mmol g^-1 (25 °C) at 1 bar. Meanwhile, a good selectivity of binary gas mixture CO₂/N₂ (15/85) of 29.72 and outstanding recyclability after ten cycles of almost 100 % adsorption capacity retention were achieved. The proposed post-treatment method was beneficial in maintaining the narrow micropores and forming N/S active sites, which together improve the CO₂ adsorption performance of NSPC. The novel NSPC displays amazing CO₂ adsorption characteristics, and the practical, affordable synthetic approach exhibits significant potential to produce highly effective CO₂ adsorbents on a broad scale.

Overcoming the coupled climate and biodiversity crises and their societal impacts

Earth's biodiversity and human societies face pollution, overconsumption of natural resources, urbanization, demographic shifts, social and economic inequalities, and habitat loss, many of which are exacerbated by climate change. Here, we review links among climate, biodiversity, and society and develop a roadmap toward sustainability. These include limiting warming to 1.5°C and effectively conserving and restoring functional ecosystems on 30 to 50% of land, freshwater, and ocean "scapes." We envision a mosaic of interconnected protected and shared spaces, including intensively used spaces, to strengthen self-sustaining biodiversity, the capacity of people and nature to adapt to and mitigate climate change, and nature's contributions to people. Fostering interlinked human, ecosystem, and planetary health for a livable future urgently requires bold implementation of transformative policy interventions through interconnected institutions, governance, and social systems from local to global levels.

The effect of temperature and invasive alien predator on genetic and phenotypic variation in the damselfly Ischnura elegans: cross-latitude comparison

BACKGROUND

Understanding and predicting how organisms respond to human-caused environmental changes has become a major concern in conservation biology. Here, we linked gene expression and phenotypic data to identify candidate genes underlying existing phenotypic trait differentiation under individual and combined environmental variables. For this purpose, we used the damselfly Ischnura elegans. Egg clutches from replicated high- (southern Sweden) and central-latitude (southern Poland) populations facing different degrees of seasonal time constraints were collected. Damselfly larvae were exposed to experimental treatments: current and mild warming temperatures crossed with the presence or absence of an invasive alien predator cue released by the spiny-cheek crayfish, Faxonius limosus, which is only present in Poland to date. We measured the following traits: larval development time, body size, mass and growth rate, and used the larvae for gene expression analysis by RNA-seq. Data were analysed using a multivariate approach.

RESULTS

We showed latitudinal differences in coping with mild warming and predator cues. When exposed to an increased temperature and a predator cue, central-latitude individuals had the shortest development and the fastest growth compared to high-latitude individuals. There was a general effect of predator cues regarding mass and growth rate reduction independent of latitude. Transcriptome analysis revealed that metabolic pathways related to larval anatomy and development tended to be upregulated in response to mild warming but only in fast-growing central-latitude individuals. Metabolic pathways linked to oxidative stress tended to be downregulated in response to a predator cue, especially in central-latitude individuals.

CONCLUSION

Different phenotypic and transcriptomic responses to environmental factors might be attributed to the variability in I. elegans life history strategies between the two latitudes caused by seasonal time constraints and to its coexistence with the invasive alien predator in nature. By providing insights into how organisms may respond to future anthropogenic changes, our results may be of particular interest in conservation biology.

A global approach for natural history museum collections

Integration of the world's natural history collections can provide a resource for decision-makers.

A key gene for the climatic adaptation of Apis cerana populations in China according to selective sweep analysis

BACKGROUND

Apis cerana is widely distributed in China and, prior to the introduction of western honeybees, was the only bee species kept in China. During the long-term natural evolutionary process, many unique phenotypic variations have occurred among A. cerana populations in different geographical regions under varied climates. Understanding the molecular genetic basis and the effects of climate change on the adaptive evolution of A. cerana can promote A. cerana conservation in face of climate change and allow for the effective utilization of its genetic resources.

RESULT

To investigate the genetic basis of phenotypic variations and the impact of climate change on adaptive evolution, A. cerana workers from 100 colonies located at similar geographical latitudes or longitudes were analyzed. Our results revealed an important relationship between climate types and the genetic variation of A. cerana in China, and a greater influence of latitude compared with longitude was observed. Upon selection and morphometry analyses combination for populations under different climate types, we identified a key gene RAPTOR, which was deeply involved in developmental processes and influenced the body size.

CONCLUSION

The selection of RAPTOR at the genomic level during adaptive evolution could allow A. cerana to actively regulate its metabolism, thereby fine-tuning body sizes in response to harsh conditions caused by climate change, such as food shortages and extreme temperatures, which may partially elucidate the size differences of A. cerana populations. This study provides crucial support for the molecular genetic basis of the expansion and evolution of naturally distributed honeybee populations.

Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates

The frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events are increasing and are projected to further increase by the end of the century^1,2. Despite the considerable consequences of temperature extremes on biological systems^3-8, we do not know which species and locations are most exposed worldwide. Here we provide a global assessment of land vertebrates' exposures to future extreme thermal events. We use daily maximum temperature data from 1950 to 2099 to quantify future exposure to high frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events to land vertebrates. Under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5); 4.4 °C warmer world), 41.0% of all land vertebrates (31.1% mammals, 25.8% birds, 55.5% amphibians and 51.0% reptiles) will be exposed to extreme thermal events beyond their historical levels in at least half their distribution by 2099. Under intermediate-high (SSP3-7.0; 3.6 °C warmer world) and intermediate (SSP2-4.5; 2.7 °C warmer world) emission scenarios, estimates for all vertebrates are 28.8% and 15.1%, respectively. Importantly, a low-emission future (SSP1-2.6, 1.8 °C warmer world) will greatly reduce the overall exposure of vertebrates (6.1% of species) and can fully prevent exposure in many species assemblages. Mid-latitude assemblages (desert, shrubland, and grassland biomes), rather than tropics^9,10, will face the most severe exposure to future extreme thermal events. By 2099, under SSP5-8.5, on average 3,773 species of land vertebrates (11.2%) will face extreme thermal events for more than half a year period. Overall, future extreme thermal events will force many species and assemblages into constant severe thermal stress. Deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts are urgently needed to limit species' exposure to thermal extremes.

Predicting extinctions with species distribution models

Predictions of species-level extinction risk from climate change are mostly based on species distribution models (SDMs). Reviewing the literature, we summarise why the translation of SDM results to extinction risk is conceptually and methodologically challenged and why critical SDM assumptions are unlikely to be met under climate change. Published SDM-derived extinction estimates are based on a positive relationship between range size decline and extinction risk, which empirically is not well understood. Importantly, the classification criteria used by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were not meant for this purpose and are often misused. Future predictive studies would profit considerably from a better understanding of the extinction risk-range decline relationship, particularly regarding the persistence and non-random distribution of the few last individuals in dwindling populations. Nevertheless, in the face of the ongoing climate and biodiversity crises, there is a high demand for predictions of future extinction risks. Despite prevailing challenges, we agree that SDMs currently provide the most accessible method to assess climate-related extinction risk across multiple species. We summarise current good practice in how SDMs can serve to classify species into IUCN extinction risk categories and predict whether a species is likely to become threatened under future climate. However, the uncertainties associated with translating predicted range declines into quantitative extinction risk need to be adequately communicated and extinction predictions should only be attempted with carefully conducted SDMs that openly communicate the limitations and uncertainty.

Bat responses to climate change: a systematic review

Understanding how species respond to climate change is key to informing vulnerability assessments and designing effective conservation strategies, yet research efforts on wildlife responses to climate change fail to deliver a representative overview due to inherent biases. Bats are a species-rich, globally distributed group of organisms that are thought to be particularly sensitive to the effects of climate change because of their high surface-to-volume ratios and low reproductive rates. We systematically reviewed the literature on bat responses to climate change to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge, identify research gaps and biases and highlight future research needs. We found that studies are geographically biased towards Europe, North America and Australia, and temperate and Mediterranean biomes, thus missing a substantial proportion of bat diversity and thermal responses. Less than half of the published studies provide concrete evidence for bat responses to climate change. For over a third of studied bat species, response evidence is only based on predictive species distribution models. Consequently, the most frequently reported responses involve range shifts (57% of species) and changes in patterns of species diversity (26%). Bats showed a variety of responses, including both positive (e.g. range expansion and population increase) and negative responses (range contraction and population decrease), although responses to extreme events were always negative or neutral. Spatial responses varied in their outcome and across families, with almost all taxonomic groups featuring both range expansions and contractions, while demographic responses were strongly biased towards negative outcomes, particularly among Pteropodidae and Molossidae. The commonly used correlative modelling approaches can be applied to many species, but do not provide mechanistic insight into behavioural, physiological, phenological or genetic responses. There was a paucity of experimental studies (26%), and only a small proportion of the 396 bat species covered in the examined studies were studied using long-term and/or experimental approaches (11%), even though they are more informative about the effects of climate change. We emphasise the need for more empirical studies to unravel the multifaceted nature of bats' responses to climate change and the need for standardised study designs that will enable synthesis and meta-analysis of the literature. Finally, we stress the importance of overcoming geographic and taxonomic disparities through strengthening research capacity in the Global South to provide a more comprehensive view of terrestrial biodiversity responses to climate change.

Evaluating natural medicinal resources and their exposure to global change

Medicinal plants and their bioactive molecules are integral components of nature and have supported the health of human societies for millennia. However, the prevailing view of medicinal biodiversity solely as an ecosystem-decoupled natural resource of commercial value prevents people from fully benefiting from the capacity of nature to provide medicines and from assessing the vulnerability of this capacity to the global environmental crisis. Emerging scientific and technological developments and traditional knowledge allow for appreciating medicinal plant resources from a planetary health perspective. In this Personal View, we highlight and integrate current knowledge that includes medicinal, biodiversity, and environmental change research in a transdisciplinary framework to evaluate natural medicinal resources and their vulnerability in the anthropocene. With Europe as an application case, we propose proxy spatial indicators for establishing the capacity, potential societal benefits, and economic values of native medicinal plant resources and the exposure of these resources to global environmental change. The proposed framework and indicators aim to be a basis for transdisciplinary research on medicinal biodiversity and could guide decisions in addressing crucial multiple Sustainable Development Goals, from accessible global health care to natural habitat protection and restoration.

Threatened species could be more vulnerable to climate change in tropical countries

Climate change is a major threat impacting insects globally, yet the impact on tropical insects is largely unknown. Here, I assessed the climatic vulnerability of Bangladeshi butterflies (242 species). About 42 % of species could experience range contraction, and the impact could be significantly more severe among threatened species. Depending on Socio-Economic Pathways (ssps), the future climatic condition could be unsuitable for 2 (ssp126) - 34 % (ssp585) species. The mean elevation of the suitable habitat could increase by 238 %, and the situation could be more severe for the threatened butterflies. Further, 54 % of the realised niche of butterflies could be altered. Although there might be no significant association between the shift in habitat suitability along the elevational gradient, migratory species could experience a more significant shift than non-migrants. Overall, climate change could have a severe impact on Bangladeshi butterflies. To mitigate insect decline globally and meet the Post 2020 Biodiversity Framework targets, immediate detection of climate change impact on tropical insects and developing effective conservation strategies is essential.

Induced drought strongly affects richness and composition of ground-dwelling ants in the eastern Amazon

Species loss in tropical regions is forecast to occur under environmental change scenarios of low precipitation. One of the main questions is how drought will affect invertebrates, a key group for ecosystem functioning. We use 1 year of data from a long-term rainwater exclusion experiment in primary Amazonian rainforest to test whether induced water stress and covarying changes in soil moisture, soil respiration, and tree species richness, diversity, size, and total biomass affected species richness and composition (relative abundance) of ground-dwelling ants. Data on ant abundance and environmental variables were collected at two sites (control and experimental) in the Eastern Amazon. Since 2002, drought has been induced in the experimental plot by excluding 50% of normal rainfall. Ant species richness in the experiment plot was reduced and some generalist species responded positively. Ant species richness also increased in the experimental plot with increasing diversity of the plant species of the leaf litter. The relative abundance of ants differed between plots. The experimental plot was characterized by a higher frequency of generalist and other species that appeared to be favored by the reduction in rainfall. Between-plot comparisons suggested loss and changes in ant species composition in tropical forests were affected by increasing dryness. These changes could ultimately lead to cascading effects on ecosystem processes and the services they mediate.

100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world

Past responses to environmental change provide vital baseline data for estimating the potential resilience of extant taxa to future change. Here, we investigate the latitudinal range contraction that terrestrial and freshwater turtles (Testudinata) experienced from the Late Cretaceous to the Paleogene (100.5-23.03 mya) in response to major climatic changes. We apply ecological niche modeling (ENM) to reconstruct turtle niches, using ancient and modern distribution data, paleogeographic reconstructions, and the HadCM3L climate model to quantify their range shifts in the Cretaceous and late Eocene. We then use the insights provided by these models to infer their probable ecological responses to future climate scenarios at different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 2100), which project globally increased temperatures and spreading arid biomes at lower to mid-latitudes. We show that turtle ranges are predicted to expand poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, with decreased habitat suitability at lower latitudes, inverting a trend of latitudinal range contraction that has been prevalent since the Eocene. Trionychids and freshwater turtles can more easily track their niches than Testudinidae and other terrestrial groups. However, habitat destruction and fragmentation at higher latitudes will probably reduce the capability of turtles and tortoises to cope with future climate changes.