Impact of transmission intensity on the accuracy of genotyping to distinguish recrudescence from new infection in antimalarial clinical trials

Persistent and multiclonal malaria parasite dynamics despite extended artemether-lumefantrine treatment in children

Standard diagnostics used in longitudinal antimalarial studies are unable to characterize the complexity of submicroscopic parasite dynamics, particularly in high transmission settings. We use molecular markers and amplicon sequencing to characterize post-treatment stage-specific malaria parasite dynamics during a 42 day randomized trial of 3- versus 5 day artemether-lumefantrine in 303 children with and without HIV (ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT03453840). The prevalence of parasite-derived 18S rRNA is >70% in children throughout follow-up, and the ring-stage marker SBP1 is detectable in over 15% of children on day 14 despite effective treatment. We find that the extended regimen significantly lowers the risk of recurrent ring-stage parasitemia compared to the standard 3 day regimen, and that higher day 7 lumefantrine concentrations decrease the probability of ring-stage parasites in the early post-treatment period. Longitudinal amplicon sequencing reveals remarkably dynamic patterns of multiclonal infections that include new and persistent clones in both the early post-treatment and later time periods. Our data indicate that post-treatment parasite dynamics are highly complex despite efficacious therapy, findings that will inform strategies to optimize regimens in the face of emerging partial artemisinin resistance in Africa.

Advocating for PCR-RFLP as molecular tool within malaria programs in low endemic areas and low resource settings

The road to malaria elimination for low- and middle-income countries is paved with obstacles, including the complexity and high costs of advanced molecular methods for genomic analysis. The usefulness of PCR-RFLP as less complex and affordable molecular surveillance tool in low-endemic malaria regions was assessed in a cross-sectional study conducted in Suriname, currently striving for malaria elimination, but plagued by recent P. vivax outbreaks. Molecular analysis of two highly polymorphic genes Pvmsp-1 F2 and Pvmsp-3α was performed for 49 samples, collected during October 2019 through September 2021 from four different regions with varying malaria transmission risks. RFLP-profiling revealed that outbreak samples from three indigenous villages, almost exclusively, harbored a single clonal type, matching the "Palumeu" lineage previously described in 2019, despite multiple relapses and drug pressure exerted by mass drug administration events, suggesting a limited P. vivax hypnozoite reservoir in Suriname. In contrast, isolates originating from Sophie, a mining area in neighboring French Guiana displayed a highly heterogeneous parasite population consistent with its endemic malaria status, demonstrating the differentiating capacity and thus the usefulness of PCR-RFLP for P. vivax genetic diversity studies. Outbreak reconstruction emphasized the impact of undetected human movement and relapses on reintroduction and resurgence of P. vivax malaria and PCR-RFLP monitoring of circulating parasites guided the roll-out of targeted interventions. PCR-RFLP seems a suitable molecular alternative in low-endemic areas with restricted resources for outbreak analysis, for monitoring the spread or containment of circulating strains and for identification of imported cases or potential foci.

The temporal dynamics of Plasmodium species infection after artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) among asymptomatic children in the Hohoe municipality, Ghana

BACKGROUND

The routine surveillance of asymptomatic malaria using nucleic acid-based amplification tests is essential in obtaining reliable data that would inform malaria policy formulation and the implementation of appropriate control measures.

METHODS

In this study, the prevalence rate and the dynamics of Plasmodium species among asymptomatic children (n = 1697) under 5 years from 30 communities within the Hohoe municipality in Ghana were determined.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The observed prevalence of Plasmodium parasite infection by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was 33.6% (571/1697), which was significantly higher compared to that obtained by microscopy [26.6% (451/1697)] (P < 0.0001). Based on species-specific analysis by nested PCR, Plasmodium falciparum infection [33.6% (570/1697)] was dominant, with Plasmodium malariae, Plasmodium ovale and Plasmodium vivax infections accounting for 0.1% (1/1697), 0.0% (0/1697), and 0.0% (0/1697), respectively. The prevalence of P. falciparum infection among the 30 communities ranged from 0.0 to 82.5%. Following artesunate-amodiaquine (AS + AQ, 25 mg/kg) treatment of a sub-population of the participants (n = 184), there was a substantial reduction in Plasmodium parasite prevalence by 100% and 79.2% on day 7 based on microscopy and nested PCR analysis, respectively. However, there was an increase in parasite prevalence from day 14 to day 42, with a subsequent decline on day 70 by both microscopy and nested PCR. For parasite clearance rate analysis, we found a significant proportion of the participants harbouring residual Plasmodium parasites or parasite genomic DNA on day 1 [65.0% (13/20)], day 2 [65.0% (13/20)] and day 3 [60.0% (12/20)] after initiating treatment. Of note, gametocyte carriage among participants was low before and after treatment.

CONCLUSION

Taken together, the results indicate that a significant number of individuals could harbour residual Plasmodium parasites or parasite genomic DNA after treatment. The study demonstrates the importance of routine surveillance of asymptomatic malaria using sensitive nucleic acid-based amplification techniques.

WHO antimalarial trial guidelines: good science, bad news?

Estimating antimalarial drug efficacy requires differentiating treatment failures from new infections arising during the several-week follow-up period in drug trials. Genetic profiling of malaria infections can guide this decision but is notoriously difficult in practice. Previous World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines were based on assumptions with an inherently high risk of underestimating failure rates. A recent update to WHO guidelines recognises a wider range of analyses to overcome these limitations. We discuss these new analyses and their underlying logic. Drug failure rate estimates in moderate to high transmissions areas will become more accurate but will likely rise twofold due to better detection of treatment failures, and the malaria community needs to anticipate and prepare for potentially large increases in estimated failure rates.

Temporal distribution of Plasmodium falciparum recrudescence following artemisinin-based combination therapy: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The duration of trial follow-up affects the ability to detect recrudescent infections following anti-malarial treatment. The aim of this study was to explore the proportions of recrudescent parasitaemia as ascribed by genotyping captured at various follow-up time-points in treatment efficacy trials for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

METHODS

Individual patient data from 83 anti-malarial efficacy studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) repository with at least 28 days follow-up were available. The temporal and cumulative distributions of recrudescence were characterized using a Cox regression model with shared frailty on study-sites. Fractional polynomials were used to capture non-linear instantaneous hazard. The area under the density curve (AUC) of the constructed distribution was used to estimate the optimal follow-up period for capturing a P. falciparum malaria recrudescence. Simulation studies were conducted based on the constructed distributions to quantify the absolute overestimation in efficacy due to sub-optimal follow-up.

RESULTS

Overall, 3703 recurrent infections were detected in 60 studies conducted in Africa (15,512 children aged < 5 years) and 23 studies conducted in Asia and South America (5272 patients of all ages). Using molecular genotyping, 519 (14.0%) recurrences were ascribed as recrudescent infections. A 28 day artemether-lumefantrine (AL) efficacy trial would not have detected 58% [95% confidence interval (CI) 47-74%] of recrudescences in African children and 32% [95% CI 15-45%] in patients of all ages in Asia/South America. The corresponding estimate following a 42 day dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) efficacy trial in Africa was 47% [95% CI 19-90%] in children under 5 years old treated with > 48 mg/kg total piperaquine (PIP) dose and 9% [95% CI 0-22%] in those treated with ≤ 48 mg/kg PIP dose. In absolute terms, the simulation study found that trials limited to 28 days follow-up following AL underestimated the risk of recrudescence by a median of 2.8 percentage points compared to day 63 estimates and those limited to 42 days following DP underestimated the risk of recrudescence by a median of 2.0 percentage points compared to day 42 estimates. The analysis was limited by few clinical trials following patients for longer than 42 days (9 out of 83 trials) and the imprecision of PCR genotyping which overcalls recrudescence in areas of higher transmission biasing the later distribution.

CONCLUSIONS

Restricting follow-up of clinical efficacy trials to day 28 for AL and day 42 for DP will miss a proportion of late recrudescent treatment failures but will have a modest impact in derived efficacy. The results highlight that as genotyping methods improve consideration should be given for trials with longer duration of follow-up to detect early indications of emerging drug resistance.

Should deep-sequenced amplicons become the new gold-standard for analysing malaria drug clinical trials?

Regulatory clinical trials are required to ensure the continued supply and deployment of effective antimalarial drugs. Patient follow-up in such trials typically lasts several weeks, as the drugs have long half-lives and new infections often occur during this period. “Molecular correction” is therefore used to distinguish drug failures from new infections. The current WHO-recommended method for molecular correction uses length-polymorphic alleles at highly diverse loci but is inherently poor at detecting low-density clones in polyclonal infections. This likely leads to substantial underestimates of failure rates, delaying the replacement of failing drugs with potentially lethal consequences. Deep-sequenced amplicons (AmpSeq) substantially increase the detectability of low-density clones and may offer a new “gold standard” for molecular correction. Pharmacological simulation of clinical trials was used to evaluate the suitability of AmpSeq for molecular correction. We investigated the impact of factors such as the number of amplicon loci analyzed, the informatics criteria used to distinguish genotyping “noise” from real low-density signals, the local epidemiology of malaria transmission, and the potential impact of genetic signals from gametocytes. AmpSeq greatly improved molecular correction and provided accurate drug failure rate estimates. The use of 3 to 5 amplicons was sufficient, and simple, nonstatistical criteria could be used to classify recurrent infections as drug failures or new infections. These results suggest AmpSeq is strongly placed to become the new standard for molecular correction in regulatory trials, with potential extension into routine surveillance once the requisite technical support becomes established.

Markov chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampler approach for estimating haplotype frequencies among multiple malaria infected human blood samples

Background

Malaria patients can have two or more haplotypes in their blood sample making it challenging to identify which haplotypes they carry. In addition, there are challenges in measuring the type and frequency of resistant haplotypes in populations. This study presents a novel statistical method Gibbs sampler algorithm to investigate this issue.

Results

The performance of the algorithm is evaluated on simulated datasets consisting of patient blood samples characterized by their multiplicity of infection (MOI) and malaria genotype. The simulation used different resistance allele frequencies (RAF) at each Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) and different limit of detection (LoD) of the SNPs and the MOI. The Gibbs sampler algorithm presents higher accuracy among high LoD of the SNPs or the MOI, validated, and deals with missing MOI compared to previous related statistical approaches.

Conclusions

The Gibbs sampler algorithm provided robust results when faced with genotyping errors caused by LoDs and functioned well even in the absence of MOI data on individual patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-03841-9.

A Computer Modelling Approach To Evaluate the Accuracy of Microsatellite Markers for Classification of Recurrent Infections during Routine Monitoring of Antimalarial Drug Efficacy

Antimalarial drugs have long half-lives, so clinical trials to monitor their efficacy require long periods of follow-up to capture drug failure that may become patent only weeks after treatment. Reinfections often occur during follow-up, so robust methods of distinguishing drug failures (recrudescence) from emerging new infections are needed to produce accurate failure rate estimates. Molecular correction aims to achieve this by comparing the genotype of a patient's pretreatment (initial) blood sample with that of any infection that occurs during follow-up, with matching genotypes indicating drug failure. We use an in silico approach to show that the widely used match-counting method of molecular correction with microsatellite markers is likely to be highly unreliable and may lead to gross under- or overestimates of the true failure rates, depending on the choice of matching criterion. A Bayesian algorithm for molecular correction was previously developed and utilized for analysis of in vivo efficacy trials. We validated this algorithm using in silico data and showed it had high specificity and generated accurate failure rate estimates. This conclusion was robust for multiple drugs, different levels of drug failure rates, different levels of transmission intensity in the study sites, and microsatellite genetic diversity. The Bayesian algorithm was inherently unable to accurately identify low-density recrudescence that occurred in a small number of patients, but this did not appear to compromise its utility as a highly effective molecular correction method for analyzing microsatellite genotypes. Strong consideration should be given to using Bayesian methodology to obtain accurate failure rate estimates during routine monitoring trials of antimalarial efficacy that use microsatellite markers.

PCR correction strategies for malaria drug trials: updates and clarifications

Malaria drug trials conducted in endemic areas face a major challenge in their analysis because it is difficult to establish whether parasitaemia in blood samples collected after treatment indicate drug failure or a new infection acquired after treatment. It is therefore vital to reliably distinguish drug failures from new infections in order to obtain accurate estimates of drug failure rates. This distinction can be achieved for Plasmodium falciparum by comparing parasite genotypes obtained at the time of treatment (the baseline) and on the day of recurring parasitaemia. Such PCR correction is required to obtain accurate failure rates, even for new effective drugs. Despite the routine use of PCR correction in surveillance of drug resistance and in clinical drug trials, limitations inherent to the molecular genotyping methods have led some researchers to question the validity of current PCR correction strategies. Here we describe and discuss recent developments in these genotyping approaches, with a particular focus on method validation and limitations of the genotyping strategies. Our aim is to update scientists from public and private bodies who are working on the development, deployment, and surveillance of new malaria drugs. We aim to promote discussion around these issues and argue for the adoption of improved standardised PCR correction methodologies.

Amplicon deep sequencing improves Plasmodium falciparum genotyping in clinical trials of antimalarial drugs

Clinical trials monitoring malaria drug resistance require genotyping of recurrent Plasmodium falciparum parasites to distinguish between treatment failure and new infection occurring during the trial follow up period. Because trial participants usually harbour multi-clonal P. falciparum infections, deep amplicon sequencing (AmpSeq) was employed to improve sensitivity and reliability of minority clone detection. Paired samples from 32 drug trial participants were Illumina deep-sequenced for five molecular markers. Reads were analysed by custom-made software HaplotypR and trial outcomes compared to results from the previous standard genotyping method based on length-polymorphic markers. Diversity of AmpSeq markers in pre-treatment samples was comparable or higher than length-polymorphic markers. AmpSeq was highly reproducible with consistent quantification of co-infecting parasite clones within a host. Outcomes of the three best-performing markers, cpmp, cpp and ama1-D3, agreed in 26/32 (81%) of patients. Discordance between the three markers performed per sample was much lower by AmpSeq (six patients) compared to length-polymorphic markers (eleven patients). Using AmpSeq for discrimination of recrudescence and new infection in antimalarial drug trials provides highly reproducible and robust characterization of clone dynamics during trial follow-up. AmpSeq overcomes limitations inherent to length-polymorphic markers. Regulatory clinical trials of antimalarial drugs will greatly benefit from this unbiased typing method.

Dealing with indeterminate outcomes in antimalarial drug efficacy trials: a comparison between complete case analysis, multiple imputation and inverse probability weighting

BACKGROUND

Antimalarial clinical efficacy studies for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria frequently encounter situations in which molecular genotyping is unable to discriminate between parasitic recurrence, either new infection or recrudescence. The current WHO guideline recommends excluding these individuals with indeterminate outcomes in a complete case (CC) analysis. Data from the four artemisinin-based combination (4ABC) trial was used to compare the performance of multiple imputation (MI) and inverse probability weighting (IPW) against the standard CC analysis for dealing with indeterminate recurrences.

METHODS

3369 study participants from the multicentre study (4ABC trial) with molecularly defined parasitic recurrence treated with three artemisinin-based combination therapies were used to represent a complete dataset. A set proportion of recurrent infections (10, 30 and 45%) were reclassified as missing using two mechanisms: a completely random selection (mechanism 1); missingness weakly dependent (mechanism 2a) and strongly dependent (mechanism 2b) on treatment and transmission intensity. The performance of MI, IPW and CC approaches in estimating the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) probability of parasitic recrudescence at day 28 was then compared. In addition, the maximum likelihood estimate of the cured proportion was presented for further comparison (analytical solution). Performance measures (bias, relative bias, standard error and coverage) were reported as an average from 1000 simulation runs.

RESULTS

The CC analyses resulted in absolute underestimation of K-M probability of day 28 recrudescence by up to 1.7% and were associated with reduced precision and poor coverage across all the scenarios studied. Both MI and IPW method performed better (greater consistency and greater efficiency) compared to CC analysis. In the absence of censoring, the analytical solution provided the most consistent and accurate estimate of cured proportion compared to the CC analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The widely used CC approach underestimates antimalarial failure; IPW and MI procedures provided efficient and consistent estimates and should be considered when reporting the results of antimalarial clinical trials, especially in areas of high transmission, where the proportion of indeterminate outcomes could be large. The analytical solution estimating the cured proportion could provide an alternative approach, in scenarios with minimal censoring due to loss to follow-up or new infections.

Molecular Detection of Residual Parasitemia after Pyronaridine-Artesunate or Artemether-Lumefantrine Treatment of Uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in Kenyan Children

Artemisinin resistance is rapidly rising in Southeast Asia and may spread to African countries, where efficacy estimates are currently still excellent. Extensive monitoring of parasite clearance dynamics after treatment is needed to determine whether responsiveness to artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) is changing in Africa. In this study, Kenyan children with uncomplicated falciparum malaria were randomly assigned to pyronaridine-artesunate (PA) or artemether-lumefantrine (AL) treatment. Parasite clearance was evaluated over 7 days following the start of treatment by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and direct-on-blood PCR nucleic acid lateral flow immunoassay (db-PCR-NALFIA), a simplified molecular malaria diagnostic. Residual parasitemia at day 7 was detected by qPCR in 37.1% (26/70) of AL-treated children and in 46.1% (35/76) of PA-treated participants (P = 0.275). Direct-on-blood PCR nucleic acid lateral flow immunoassay detected residual parasites at day 7 in 33.3% (23/69) and 30.3% (23/76) of AL and PA-treated participants, respectively (P = 0.692). qPCR-determined parasitemia at day 7 was associated with increased prevalence and density of gametocytes at baseline (P = 0.014 and P = 0.003, for prevalence and density, respectively) and during follow-up (P = 0.007 and P = 0.011, respectively, at day 7). A positive db-PCR-NALFIA outcome at day 7 was associated with treatment failure (odds ratio [OR]: 3.410, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.513-7.689, P = 0.003), but this association was not found for qPCR (OR: 0.701, 95% CI: 0.312-1.578, P = 0.391). Both qPCR and db-PCR-NALFIA detected substantial residual submicroscopic parasitemia after microscopically successful PA and AL treatment and can be useful tools to monitor parasite clearance. To predict treatment outcome, db-PCR-NALFIA may be more suitable than qPCR.

Improving Methods for Analyzing Antimalarial Drug Efficacy Trials: Molecular Correction Based on Length-Polymorphic Markers msp-1, msp-2, and glurp

Drug efficacy trials monitor the continued efficacy of front-line drugs against falciparum malaria. Overestimating efficacy results in a country retaining a failing drug as first-line treatment with associated increases in morbidity and mortality, while underestimating drug effectiveness leads to removal of an effective treatment with substantial practical and economic implications.

Drug efficacy trials monitor the continued efficacy of front-line drugs against falciparum malaria. Overestimating efficacy results in a country retaining a failing drug as first-line treatment with associated increases in morbidity and mortality, while underestimating drug effectiveness leads to removal of an effective treatment with substantial practical and economic implications. Trials are challenging: they require long durations of follow-up to detect drug failures, and patients are frequently reinfected during that period. Molecular correction based on parasite genotypes distinguishes reinfections from drug failures to ensure the accuracy of failure rate estimates. Several molecular correction “algorithms” have been proposed, but which is most accurate and/or robust remains unknown. We used pharmacological modeling to simulate parasite dynamics and genetic signals that occur in patients enrolled in malaria drug clinical trials. We compared estimates of treatment failure obtained from a selection of proposed molecular correction algorithms against the known “true” failure rate in the model. Our findings are as follows. (i) Molecular correction is essential to avoid substantial overestimates of drug failure rates. (ii) The current WHO-recommended algorithm consistently underestimates the true failure rate. (iii) Newly proposed algorithms produce more accurate failure rate estimates; the most accurate algorithm depends on the choice of drug, trial follow-up length, and transmission intensity. (iv) Long durations of patient follow-up may be counterproductive; large numbers of new infections accumulate and may be misclassified, overestimating drug failure rate. (v) Our model was highly consistent with existing in vivo data. The current WHO-recommended method for molecular correction and analysis of clinical trials should be reevaluated and updated.

FLASH: a next-generation CRISPR diagnostic for multiplexed detection of antimicrobial resistance sequences

The growing prevalence of deadly microbes with resistance to previously life-saving drug therapies is a dire threat to human health. Detection of low abundance pathogen sequences remains a challenge for metagenomic Next Generation Sequencing (NGS). We introduce FLASH (Finding Low Abundance Sequences by Hybridization), a next-generation CRISPR/Cas9 diagnostic method that takes advantage of the efficiency, specificity and flexibility of Cas9 to enrich for a programmed set of sequences. FLASH-NGS achieves up to 5 orders of magnitude of enrichment and sub-attomolar gene detection with minimal background. We provide an open-source software tool (FLASHit) for guide RNA design. Here we applied it to detection of antimicrobial resistance genes in respiratory fluid and dried blood spots, but FLASH-NGS is applicable to all areas that rely on multiplex PCR.

Competing risk events in antimalarial drug trials in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria: a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Therapeutic efficacy studies in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria are confounded by new infections, which constitute competing risk events since they can potentially preclude/pre-empt the detection of subsequent recrudescence of persistent, sub-microscopic primary infections.

METHODS

Antimalarial studies typically report the risk of recrudescence derived using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method, which considers new infections acquired during the follow-up period as censored. Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF) provides an alternative approach for handling new infections, which accounts for them as a competing risk event. The complement of the estimate derived using the K-M method (1 minus K-M), and the CIF were used to derive the risk of recrudescence at the end of the follow-up period using data from studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository. Absolute differences in the failure estimates derived using these two methods were quantified. In comparative studies, the equality of two K-M curves was assessed using the log-rank test, and the equality of CIFs using Gray's k-sample test (both at 5% level of significance). Two different regression modelling strategies for recrudescence were considered: cause-specific Cox model and Fine and Gray's sub-distributional hazard model.

RESULTS

Data were available from 92 studies (233 treatment arms, 31,379 patients) conducted between 1996 and 2014. At the end of follow-up, the median absolute overestimation in the estimated risk of cumulative recrudescence by using 1 minus K-M approach was 0.04% (interquartile range (IQR): 0.00-0.27%, Range: 0.00-3.60%). The overestimation was correlated positively with the proportion of patients with recrudescence [Pearson's correlation coefficient (ρ): 0.38, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.30-0.46] or new infection [ρ: 0.43; 95% CI 0.35-0.54]. In three study arms, the point estimates of failure were greater than 10% (the WHO threshold for withdrawing antimalarials) when the K-M method was used, but remained below 10% when using the CIF approach, but the 95% confidence interval included this threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

The 1 minus K-M method resulted in a marginal overestimation of recrudescence that became increasingly pronounced as antimalarial efficacy declined, particularly when the observed proportion of new infection was high. The CIF approach provides an alternative approach for derivation of failure estimates in antimalarial trials, particularly in high transmission settings.

Comparison of Two Genotyping Methods for Distinguishing Recrudescence from Reinfection in Antimalarial Drug Efficacy/Effectiveness Trials

Genotyping of allelic variants of Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface proteins 1 and 2 (msp-1 and msp-2), and the glutamate-rich protein is the gold standard for distinguishing reinfections from recrudescences in antimalarial drug trials. We compared performance of the recently developed 24-single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) Barcoding Assay against msp-1 and msp-2 genotyping in a cluster-randomized effectiveness trial of artemether-lumefantrine and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in Malawi. Rates of recrudescence and reinfection estimated by the two methods did not differ significantly (Fisher's exact test; P = 0.887 and P = 0.768, respectively). There was a strong agreement between the two methods in predicting treatment outcomes and resolving the genetic complexity of malaria infections in this setting. These results support the use of this SNP assay as an alternative method for correcting antimalarial efficacy/effectiveness data.

Tools for surveillance of anti-malarial drug resistance: an assessment of the current landscape

To limit the spread and impact of anti-malarial drug resistance and react accordingly, surveillance systems able to detect and track in real-time its emergence and spread need to be strengthened or in some places established. Currently, surveillance of anti-malarial drug resistance is done by any of three approaches: (1) in vivo studies to assess the efficacy of drugs in patients; (2) in vitro/ex vivo studies to evaluate parasite susceptibility to the drugs; and/or (3) molecular assays to detect validated gene mutations and/or gene copy number changes that are associated with drug resistance. These methods are complementary, as they evaluate different aspects of resistance; however, standardization of methods, especially for in vitro/ex vivo and molecular techniques, is lacking. The World Health Organization has developed a standard protocol for evaluating the efficacy of anti-malarial drugs, which is used by National Malaria Control Programmes to conduct their therapeutic efficacy studies. Regional networks, such as the East African Network for Monitoring Antimalarial Treatment and the Amazon Network for the Surveillance of Antimalarial Drug Resistance, have been set up to strengthen regional capacities for monitoring anti-malarial drug resistance. The Worldwide Antimalarial Resistance Network has been established to collate and provide global spatial and temporal trends information on the efficacy of anti-malarial drugs and resistance. While exchange of information across endemic countries is essential for monitoring anti-malarial resistance, sustainable funding for the surveillance and networking activities remains challenging. The technology landscape for molecular assays is progressing quite rapidly, and easy-to-use and affordable new techniques are becoming available. They also offer the advantage of high throughput analysis from a simple blood spots obtained from a finger prick. New technologies combined with the strengthening of national reference laboratories in malaria-endemic countries through standardized protocols and training plus the availability of a proficiency testing programme, would contribute to the improvement and sustainability of anti-malarial resistance surveillance networks worldwide.

Determination of multiple-clone infection at allelic dimorphism site of Plasmodium vivax merozoite surface protein-1 in the Republic of Korea by pyrosequencing assay

Allelic diversity leading to multiple gene polymorphisms of vivax malaria parasites has been shown to greatly contribute to antigenic variation and drug resistance, increasing the potential for multiple-clone infections within the host. Therefore, to identify multiple-clone infections and the predominant haplotype of Plasmodium vivax in a South Korean population, P. vivax merozoite surface protein-1 (PvMSP-1) was analyzed by pyrosequencing. Pyrosequencing of 156 vivax malaria-infected samples yielded 97 (62.18%) output pyrograms showing two main types of peak patterns of the dimorphic allele for threonine and alanine (T1476A). Most of the samples evaluated (88.66%) carried multiple-clone infections (wild- and mutant-types), whereas 11.34% of the same population carried only the mutant-type (1476A). In addition, each allele showed a high frequency of guanine (G) base substitution at both the first and third positions (86.07% and 81.13%, respectively) of the nucleotide combinations. Pyrosequencing of the PvMSP-1 42-kDa fragment revealed a heterogeneous parasite population, with the mutant-type dominant compared to the wild-type. Understanding the genetic diversity and multiple-clone infection rates may lead to improvements in vivax malaria prevention and strategic control plans. Further studies are needed to improve the efficacy of the pyrosequencing assay with large sample sizes and additional nucleotide positions.

Statistical methods to derive efficacy estimates of anti-malarials for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria: pitfalls and challenges

The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method is currently the preferred approach to derive an efficacy estimate from anti-malarial trial data. In this approach event times are assumed to be continuous and estimates are generated on the assumption that there is only one cause of failure. In reality, failures are captured at pre-scheduled time points and patients can fail treatment due to a variety of causes other than the primary endpoint, commonly termed competing risk events. Ignoring these underlying assumptions can potentially distort the derived efficacy estimates and result in misleading conclusions. This review details the evolution of statistical methods used to derive anti-malarial efficacy for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria and assesses the limitations of the current practices. Alternative approaches are explored and their implementation is discussed using example data from a large multi-site study.

Serum biochemical parameters and cytokine profiles associated with natural African trypanosome infections in cattle

Background

Animal African trypanosomiasis (AAT) greatly affects livestock production in sub-Saharan Africa. In Ghana prevalence of AAT is estimated to range between 5 and 50%. Studies have reported serum biochemical aberrations and variability in cytokine profiles in animals during infection. However, information regarding the biochemical parameters and cytokine profiles associated with natural infections are limited. This study was therefore aimed at investigating changes in the levels of serum biochemical parameters and inflammatory cytokines during a natural infection.

Methods

Nested internal transcribed spacer (ITS)-based PCR and sequencing were used to characterise trypanosome infection in cattle at two areas in Ghana (Adidome and Accra) of different endemicities. The cattle were sampled at four to five-week intervals over a period of six months. Levels of serum biochemical parameters, including creatinine, cholesterol, alkaline phosphatase (ALP), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), total bilirubin and total protein and cytokines (interleukin 10, interleukin 4, interleukin 12, interferon gamma and tumor necrosis factor alpha) were measured in serum samples and then compared between infected cattle and uninfected controls.

Results

The predominant trypanosome species detected in Accra (non-endemic) and Adidome (endemic) were Trypanosoma theileri and Trypanosoma vivax, respectively. Serum biochemical parameters were similar between infected and uninfected cattle in Accra. Infected cattle at Adidome however, had significantly higher levels of ALP, creatinine, total protein and total bilirubin (P < 0.05) and significantly lower levels of cholesterol (P < 0.05) at specific time points. At basal levels and during infection, significantly higher pro-inflammatory to anti-inflammatory (Th1/Th2) cytokine ratios were observed in cattle at Adidome compared to Accra (P < 0.05), indicating a shift towards Th1 immune response in Adidome. Levels of IL-10 were, however, significantly elevated in infected cattle in Accra (P < 0.05), suggesting high anti-inflammatory cytokine response in Accra.

Conclusion

These results suggests that cattle in an endemic area repeatedly infected with trypanosomes of different species or different antigenic types demonstrate high pro-inflammatory (Th1) immune response and biochemical alterations whereas cattle in a non-endemic area with predominantly chronic T. theileri infections demonstrate high anti-inflammatory response and no biochemical alterations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-017-2255-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Four artemisinin-based treatments in African pregnant women with malaria

BACKGROUND

Information regarding the safety and efficacy of artemisinin combination treatments for malaria in pregnant women is limited, particularly among women who live in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter, randomized, open-label trial of treatments for malaria in pregnant women in four African countries. A total of 3428 pregnant women in the second or third trimester who had falciparum malaria (at any parasite density and regardless of symptoms) were treated with artemether-lumefantrine, amodiaquine-artesunate, mefloquine-artesunate, or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine. The primary end points were the polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR)-adjusted cure rates (i.e., cure of the original infection; new infections during follow-up were not considered to be treatment failures) at day 63 and safety outcomes.

RESULTS

The PCR-adjusted cure rates in the per-protocol analysis were 94.8% in the artemether-lumefantrine group, 98.5% in the amodiaquine-artesunate group, 99.2% in the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group, and 96.8% in the mefloquine-artesunate group; the PCR-adjusted cure rates in the intention-to-treat analysis were 94.2%, 96.9%, 98.0%, and 95.5%, respectively. There was no significant difference among the amodiaquine-artesunate group, dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group, and the mefloquine-artesunate group. The cure rate in the artemether-lumefantrine group was significantly lower than that in the other three groups, although the absolute difference was within the 5-percentage-point margin for equivalence. The unadjusted cure rates, used as a measure of the post-treatment prophylactic effect, were significantly lower in the artemether-lumefantrine group (52.5%) than in groups that received amodiaquine-artesunate (82.3%), dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (86.9%), or mefloquine-artesunate (73.8%). No significant difference in the rate of serious adverse events and in birth outcomes was found among the treatment groups. Drug-related adverse events such as asthenia, poor appetite, dizziness, nausea, and vomiting occurred significantly more frequently in the mefloquine-artesunate group (50.6%) and the amodiaquine-artesunate group (48.5%) than in the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group (20.6%) and the artemether-lumefantrine group (11.5%) (P<0.001 for comparison among the four groups).

CONCLUSIONS

Artemether-lumefantrine was associated with the fewest adverse effects and with acceptable cure rates but provided the shortest posttreatment prophylaxis, whereas dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine had the best efficacy and an acceptable safety profile. (Funded by the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00852423.).

Markov chain Monte Carlo and expectation maximization approaches for estimation of haplotype frequencies for multiply infected human blood samples

Background

Haplotypes are important in anti-malarial drug resistance because genes encoding drug resistance may accumulate mutations at several codons in the same gene, each mutation increasing the level of drug resistance and, possibly, reducing the metabolic costs of previous mutation. Patients often have two or more haplotypes in their blood sample which may make it impossible to identify exactly which haplotypes they carry, and hence to measure the type and frequency of resistant haplotypes in the malaria population.

Results

This study presents two novel statistical methods expectation–maximization (EM) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to investigate this issue. The performance of the algorithms is evaluated on simulated datasets consisting of patient blood characterized by their multiplicity of infection (MOI) and malaria genotype. The datasets are generated using different resistance allele frequencies (RAF) at each single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and different limit of detection (LoD) of the SNPs and the MOI. The EM and the MCMC algorithm are validated and appear more accurate, faster and slightly less affected by LoD of the SNPs and the MOI compared to previous related statistical approaches.

Conclusions

The EM and the MCMC algorithms perform well when analysing malaria genetic data obtained from infected human blood samples. The results are robust to genotyping errors caused by LoDs and function well even in the absence of MOI data on individual patients.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1473-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prospective Study of Plasmodium vivax Malaria Recurrence after Radical Treatment with a Chloroquine-Primaquine Standard Regimen in Turbo, Colombia

Plasmodium vivax recurrences help maintain malaria transmission. They are caused by recrudescence, reinfection, or relapse, which are not easily differentiated. A longitudinal observational study took place in Turbo municipality, Colombia. Participants with uncomplicated P. vivax infection received supervised treatment concomitantly with 25 mg/kg chloroquine and 0.25 mg/kg/day primaquine for 14 days. Incidence of recurrence was assessed over 180 days. Samples were genotyped, and origins of recurrences were established. A total of 134 participants were enrolled between February 2012 and July 2013, and 87 were followed for 180 days, during which 29 recurrences were detected. The cumulative incidence of first recurrence was 24.1% (21/87) (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.6 to 33.7%), and 86% (18/21) of these events occurred between days 51 and 110. High genetic diversity of P. vivax strains was found, and 12.5% (16/128) of the infections were polyclonal. Among detected recurrences, 93.1% (27/29) of strains were genotyped as genetically identical to the strain from the previous infection episode, and 65.5% (19/29) of infections were classified as relapses. Our results indicate that there is a high incidence of P. vivax malaria recurrence after treatment in Turbo municipality, Colombia, and that a large majority of these episodes are likely relapses from the previous infection. We attribute this to the primaquine regimen currently used in Colombia, which may be insufficient to eliminate hypnozoites.

Cryptosporidium within-host genetic diversity: systematic bibliographical search and narrative overview

Knowledge of the within-host genetic diversity of a pathogen often has broad implications for disease management. Cryptosporidium protozoan parasites are among the most common causative agents of infectious diarrhoea. Current limitations of in vitro culture impose the use of uncultured isolates obtained directly from the hosts as operational units of Cryptosporidium genotyping. The validity of this practice is centred on the assumption of genetic homogeneity of the parasite within the host, and genetic studies often take little account of the within-host genetic diversity of Cryptosporidium. Yet, theory and experimental evidence contemplate genetic diversity of Cryptosporidium at the within-host scale, but this diversity is not easily identified by genotyping methods ill-suited for the resolution of DNA mixtures. We performed a systematic bibliographical search of the occurrence of within-host genetic diversity of Cryptosporidium parasites in epidemiological samples, between 2005 and 2015. Our results indicate that genetic diversity at the within-host scale, in the form of mixed species or intra-species diversity, has been identified in a large number (n=55) of epidemiological surveys of cryptosporidiosis in variable proportions, but has often been treated as a secondary finding and not analysed. As in malaria, there are indications that the scale of this diversity varies between geographical regions, perhaps depending on the prevailing transmission pathways. These results provide a significant knowledge base from which to draw alternative population genetic structure models, some of which are discussed in this paper.

Four Artemisinin-Based Treatments in African Pregnant Women with Malaria

BACKGROUND

Information regarding the safety and efficacy of artemisinin combination treatments for malaria in pregnant women is limited, particularly among women who live in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter, randomized, open-label trial of treatments for malaria in pregnant women in four African countries. A total of 3428 pregnant women in the second or third trimester who had falciparum malaria (at any parasite density and regardless of symptoms) were treated with artemether-lumefantrine, amodiaquine-artesunate, mefloquine-artesunate, or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine. The primary end points were the polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR)-adjusted cure rates (i.e., cure of the original infection; new infections during follow-up were not considered to be treatment failures) at day 63 and safety outcomes.

RESULTS

The PCR-adjusted cure rates in the per-protocol analysis were 94.8% in the artemether-lumefantrine group, 98.5% in the amodiaquine-artesunate group, 99.2% in the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group, and 96.8% in the mefloquine-artesunate group; the PCR-adjusted cure rates in the intention-to-treat analysis were 94.2%, 96.9%, 98.0%, and 95.5%, respectively. There was no significant difference among the amodiaquine-artesunate group, dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group, and the mefloquine-artesunate group. The cure rate in the artemether-lumefantrine group was significantly lower than that in the other three groups, although the absolute difference was within the 5-percentage-point margin for equivalence. The unadjusted cure rates, used as a measure of the post-treatment prophylactic effect, were significantly lower in the artemether-lumefantrine group (52.5%) than in groups that received amodiaquine-artesunate (82.3%), dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (86.9%), or mefloquine-artesunate (73.8%). No significant difference in the rate of serious adverse events and in birth outcomes was found among the treatment groups. Drug-related adverse events such as asthenia, poor appetite, dizziness, nausea, and vomiting occurred significantly more frequently in the mefloquine-artesunate group (50.6%) and the amodiaquine-artesunate group (48.5%) than in the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group (20.6%) and the artemether-lumefantrine group (11.5%) (P<0.001 for comparison among the four groups).

CONCLUSIONS

Artemether-lumefantrine was associated with the fewest adverse effects and with acceptable cure rates but provided the shortest post-treatment prophylaxis, whereas dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine had the best efficacy and an acceptable safety profile. (Funded by the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00852423.).

Multiple-clone infections of Plasmodium vivax: definition of a panel of markers for molecular epidemiology

Background

Plasmodium vivax infections commonly contain multiple genetically distinct parasite clones. The detection of multiple-clone infections depends on several factors, such as the accuracy of the genotyping method, and the type and number of the molecular markers analysed. Characterizing the multiplicity of infection has broad implications that range from population genetic studies of the parasite to malaria treatment and control. This study compared and evaluated the efficiency of neutral and non-neutral markers that are widely used in studies of molecular epidemiology to detect the multiplicity of P. vivax infection.

Methods

The performance of six markers was evaluated using 11 mixtures of DNA with well-defined proportions of two different parasite genotypes for each marker. These mixtures were generated by mixing cloned PCR products or patient-derived genomic DNA. In addition, 51 samples of natural infections from the Brazil were genotyped for all markers. The PCR-capillary electrophoresis-based method was used to permit direct comparisons among the markers. The criteria for differentiating minor peaks from artifacts were also evaluated.

Results

The analysis of DNA mixtures showed that the tandem repeat MN21 and the polymorphic blocks 2 (msp1B2) and 10 (msp1B10) of merozoite surface protein-1 allowed for the estimation of the expected ratio of both alleles in the majority of preparations. Nevertheless, msp1B2 was not able to detect the majority of multiple-clone infections in field samples; it identified only 6 % of these infections. The merozoite surface protein-3 alpha and microsatellites (PvMS6 and PvMS7) did not accurately estimate the relative clonal proportions in artificial mixtures, but the microsatellites performed well in detecting natural multiple-clone infections. Notably, the use of a less stringent criterion to score rare alleles significantly increased the sensitivity of the detection of multi-clonal infections.

Conclusions

Depending on the type of marker used, a considerable amplification bias was observed, which may have serious implications for the characterization of the complexity of a P. vivax infection. Based on the performance of markers in artificial mixtures of DNA and natural infections, a minimum panel of four genetic markers (PvMS6, PvMS7, MN21, and msp1B10) was defined, and these markers are highly informative regarding the genetic variability of P. vivax populations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0846-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Robust Algorithm for Systematic Classification of Malaria Late Treatment Failures as Recrudescence or Reinfection Using Microsatellite Genotyping

Routine therapeutic efficacy monitoring to measure the response to antimalarial treatment is a cornerstone of malaria control. To correctly measure drug efficacy, therapeutic efficacy studies require genotyping parasites from late treatment failures to differentiate between recrudescent infections and reinfections. However, there is a lack of statistical methods to systematically classify late treatment failures from genotyping data. A Bayesian algorithm was developed to estimate the posterior probability of late treatment failure being the result of a recrudescent infection from microsatellite genotyping data. The algorithm was implemented using a Monte Carlo Markov chain approach and was used to classify late treatment failures using published microsatellite data from therapeutic efficacy studies in Ethiopia and Angola. The algorithm classified 85% of the Ethiopian and 95% of the Angolan late treatment failures as either likely reinfection or likely recrudescence, defined as a posterior probability of recrudescence of <0.1 or >0.9, respectively. The adjusted efficacies calculated using the new algorithm differed from efficacies estimated using commonly used methods for differentiating recrudescence from reinfection. In a high-transmission setting such as Angola, as few as 15 samples needed to be genotyped in order to have enough power to correctly classify treatment failures. Analysis of microsatellite genotyping data for differentiating between recrudescence and reinfection benefits from an approach that both systematically classifies late treatment failures and estimates the uncertainty of these classifications. Researchers analyzing genotyping data from antimalarial therapeutic efficacy monitoring are urged to publish their raw genetic data and to estimate the uncertainty around their classification.

Randomized comparison of the efficacies and tolerabilities of three artemisinin-based combination treatments for children with acute Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

An open-label, randomized controlled trial was carried out in 2011-2012 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to test the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of the artemisinin-based combination treatments dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, amodiaquine-artesunate, and artemether-lumefantrine. Six hundred eighty-four children aged 3 to 59 months with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria were randomly allocated to each study arm. Children were hospitalized for 3 days, given supervised treatment, and followed up weekly for 42 days. All regimens were well tolerated and rapidly effective. The median parasitemia clearance half-life was 2.2 h, and half-lives were similar between arms (P=0.19). The PCR-uncorrected cure rates by day 42 were 73.0% for amodiaquine-artesunate, 70.2% for artemether-lumefantrine, and 86.3% for dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (P=0.001). Early treatment failure occurred in three patients (0.5%), one in each arm. The PCR-corrected cure rates were 93.4% for amodiaquine-artesunate, 92.7% for artemether-lumefantrine, and 94.3% for dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (P=0.78). The last provided a longer posttreatment prophylactic effect than did the other two treatments. The day 7 plasma concentration of piperaquine was below 30 ng/ml in 47% of the children treated with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, and the day 7 lumefantrine concentration was below 280 ng/ml in 37.0% of children who received artemether-lumefantrine. Thus, although cure rates were all satisfactory, they could be improved by increasing the dose. (This study has been registered with the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number Register [www.isrctn.org] under registration no. ISRCTN20984426.).

A better resolution for integrating methods for monitoring Plasmodium falciparum resistance to antimalarial drugs

Effective chemotherapy is the mainstay of malaria control. However, resistance of falciparum malaria to antimalarial drugs compromised the efforts to eliminate the disease and led to the resurgence of malaria epidemics. Three main approaches are used to monitor antimalarial drug efficacy and drug resistance; namely, in vivo trials, in vitro/ex vivo assays and molecular markers of drug resistance. Each approach has its implications of use as well as its advantages and drawbacks. Therefore, there is a need to use an integrated approach that would give the utmost effect to detect resistance as early as its emergence and to track it once spread. Such integration becomes increasingly needed in the era of artemisinin-based combination therapy as a forward action to deter resistance. The existence of regional and global networks for the standardization of methodology, provision of high quality reagents for the assessment of antimalarial drug resistance and dissemination of open-access data would help in approaching an integrated resistance surveillance system on a global scale.

Comparative impacts over 5 years of artemisinin-based combination therapies on Plasmodium falciparum polymorphisms that modulate drug sensitivity in Ugandan children

BACKGROUND

Artemisinin-based combination therapies, including artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP), are recommended to treat uncomplicated falciparum malaria. Sensitivities to components of AL and DP are impacted by polymorphisms in pfmdr1 and pfcrt. We monitored changes in prevalences of polymorphisms in Tororo, Uganda, from 2008 to 2012.

METHODS

Polymorphic loci in pfmdr1 and pfcrt were characterized in samples from 312 children randomized to AL or DP for each episode of uncomplicated malaria (50 samples per arm for each 3-month interval) utilizing a fluorescent microsphere assay. Treatment outcomes and impacts of prior therapies were also characterized.

RESULTS

Prevalence increased significantly over time for pfmdr1 N86 (AL: odds ratio [OR], 2.08 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.83-2.38]; DP: 1.41 [95% CI, 1.25-1.57]), pfmdr1 D1246 (AL: 1.46 [95% CI, 1.29-1.64]; DP: 1.36 [95% CI, 1.23-1.50]), and pfcrt K76 (AL: 3.37 [95% CI, 1.85-6.16]; DP: 5.84 [95% CI, 1.94-17.53], and decreased for pfmdr1 Y184 (AL: 0.78 [95% CI, .70-.86]; DP: 0.84 [95% CI, .76-1.50]); changes were consistently greater in the AL arm. Recent AL treatment selected for pfmdr1 N86, D1246, and 184F in subsequent episodes; DP selected for the opposite alleles.

CONCLUSIONS

Genotypes with decreased sensitivity to AL components increased over time. This increase was greater in children receiving AL, suggesting that the choice of treatment regimen can profoundly influence parasite genetics and drug sensitivity.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT00527800.

Residual Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia in Kenyan children after artemisinin-combination therapy is associated with increased transmission to mosquitoes and parasite recurrence

BACKGROUND

Parasite clearance time after artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) may be increasing in Asian and African settings. The association between parasite clearance following ACT and transmissibility is currently unknown.

METHODS

We determined parasite clearance dynamics by duplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) in samples collected in the first 3 days after treatment of uncomplicated malaria with ACT. Gametocyte carriage was determined by Pfs25 quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification assays; infectiousness to mosquitoes by membrane-feeding assays on day 7 after treatment.

RESULTS

Residual parasitemia was detected by qPCR in 31.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24.6-39.8) of the children on day 3 after initiation of treatment. Residual parasitemia was associated with a 2-fold longer duration of gametocyte carriage (P = .0007), a higher likelihood of infecting mosquitoes (relative risk, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.17-3.24; P = .015), and a higher parasite burden in mosquitoes (incidence rate ratio, 2.92; 95% CI, 1.61-5.31; P < .001). Children with residual parasitemia were also significantly more likely to experience microscopically detectable parasitemia during follow-up (relative risk, 11.25; 95% CI, 4.08-31.01; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Residual submicroscopic parasitemia is common after ACT and is associated with a higher transmission potential. Residual parasitemia may also have consequences for individual patients because of its higher risk of recurrent parasitemia.

Analysing malaria drug trials on a per-individual or per-clone basis: a comparison of methods

There are a variety of methods used to estimate the effectiveness of antimalarial drugs in clinical trials, invariably on a per-person basis. A person, however, may have more than one malaria infection present at the time of treatment. We evaluate currently used methods for analysing malaria trials on a per-individual basis and introduce a novel method to estimate the cure rate on a per-infection (clone) basis. We used simulated and real data to highlight the differences of the various methods. We give special attention to classifying outcomes as cured, recrudescent (infections that never fully cleared) or ambiguous on the basis of genetic markers at three loci. To estimate cure rates on a per-clone basis, we used the genetic information within an individual before treatment to determine the number of clones present. We used the genetic information obtained at the time of treatment failure to classify clones as recrudescence or new infections. On the per-individual level, we find that the most accurate methods of classification label an individual as newly infected if all alleles are different at the beginning and at the time of failure and as a recrudescence if all or some alleles were the same. The most appropriate analysis method is survival analysis or alternatively for complete data/per-protocol analysis a proportion estimate that treats new infections as successes. We show that the analysis of drug effectiveness on a per-clone basis estimates the cure rate accurately and allows more detailed evaluation of the performance of the treatment.

Pharmacokinetic predictors for recurrent malaria after dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine treatment of uncomplicated malaria in Ugandan infants

BACKGROUND

Although dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) is used primarily in children, pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) data on DP use in young children are lacking.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective PK/PD study of piperaquine in 107 young children in Uganda. Samples were collected up to 28 days after 218 episodes of malaria treatment, which occurred during follow-up periods of up to 5 months. Malaria follow-up was conducted actively to day 28 and passively to day 63.

RESULTS

The median capillary piperaquine concentration on day 7 after treatment was 41.9 ng/mL. Low piperaquine concentrations were associated with an increased risk of recurrent malaria for up to 42 days, primarily in those receiving trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) prophylaxis. In children not receiving TMP-SMX, low piperaquine concentrations were only modestly associated with an increased risk of recurrent malaria. However, for children receiving TMP-SMX, associations were strong and evident for all sampling days, with PQ concentrations of ≤ 27.3 ng/mL on day 7 associated with a greatly increased risk of recurrent malaria. Notably, of 132 cases of recurrent malaria, 119 had detectable piperaquine concentrations at the time of presentation with recurrent malaria.

CONCLUSIONS

These piperaquine PK/PD data represent the first in children <2 years of age. Piperaquine exposure on day 7 correlated with an increased risk of recurrent malaria after DP treatment in children receiving TMP-SMX prophylaxis. Interestingly, despite strong associations, infants remained at risk for malaria, even if they had residual levels of piperaquine.

Associations between antibodies to a panel of Plasmodium falciparum specific antigens and response to sub-optimal antimalarial therapy in Kampala, Uganda

Background

Antibodies are important in the control of blood stage Plasmodium falciparum infection. It is unclear which antibody responses are responsible for, or even associated with protection, partly due to confounding by heterogeneous exposure. Assessment of response to partially effective antimalarial therapy, which requires the host to assist in clearing parasites, offers an opportunity to measure protection independent of exposure.

Methods

A cohort of children aged 1–10 years in Kampala, Uganda were treated with amodiaquine+sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for uncomplicated malaria. Serum samples from the time of malaria diagnosis and 14 days later were analyzed for total IgG to 8 P. falciparum antigens using a quantitative indirect ELISA. Associations between antibody levels and risk of treatment failure were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression.

Results

Higher levels of antibodies to apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA-1), but to none of the other 7 antigens were significantly associated with protection against treatment failure (HR 0.57 per 10-fold increase in antibody level, CI 0.41–0.79, p = 0.001). Protection increased consistently across the entire range of antibody levels.

Conclusions

Measurement of antibody levels to AMA-1 at the time of malaria may offer a quantitative biomarker of blood stage immunity to P. falciparum, a tool which is currently lacking.

Genotyping of Plasmodium falciparum using antigenic polymorphic markers and to study anti-malarial drug resistance markers in malaria endemic areas of Bangladesh

Background

In the past many regions of Bangladesh were hyperendemic for malaria. Malaria control in the 1960s to 1970s eliminated malaria from the plains but in the Chittagong Hill Tracts remained a difficult to control reservoir. The Chittagong Hill Tracts have areas with between 1 and 10% annual malaria rates, predominately 90-95% Plasmodium falciparum. In Southeast Asia, multiplicity of infection for hypo-endemic regions has been approximately 1.5. Few studies on the genetic diversity of P. falciparum have been performed in Bangladesh. Anderson et al. performed a study in Khagrachari, northern Chittagong Hill Tracts in 2002 on 203 patients and found that parasites had a multiplicity of infection of 1.3 by MSP-1, MSP-2 and GLURP genotyping. A total of 94% of the isolates had the K76T Pfcrt chloroquine resistant genotype, and 70% showed the N86Y Pfmdr1 genotype. Antifolate drug resistant genotypes were high with 99% and 73% of parasites having two or more mutations at the dhfr or dhps loci.

Methods

Nested and real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods were used to genotype P. falciparum using antigenic polymorphic markers and to study anti-malarial drug resistance markers in malaria endemic areas of Bangladesh.

Results

The analysis of polymorphic and drug resistant genotype on 33 paired recrudescent infections after drug treatment in the period 2004 to 2008 in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, which is just prior to countrywide provision of artemisinin combination therapy. Overall the multiplicity of infection for MSP-1 was 2.7 with a slightly smaller parasite diversity post-treatment. The 13 monoclonal infections by both GLURP and MSP-1 were evenly divided between pre- and post-treatment. The MSP-1 MAD block was most frequent in 66 of the samples. The prevalence of the K76T PfCRT chloroquine resistant allele was approximately 82% of the samples, while the resistant Pfmdr1 N86Y was present in 33% of the samples. Interestingly, the post-treatment samples had a small but significantly higher frequency of the sensitive PfCRT alleles by RT-PCR.

Conclusion

The parasite population retains high population diversity despite hypo-endemic transmission with retention, but decrease in the chloroquine-resistant allele and Pfmdr1 resistant alleles in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh.

Estimating the numbers of malaria infections in blood samples using high-resolution genotyping data

People living in endemic areas often habour several malaria infections at once. High-resolution genotyping can distinguish between infections by detecting the presence of different alleles at a polymorphic locus. However the number of infections may not be accurately counted since parasites from multiple infections may carry the same allele. We use simulation to determine the circumstances under which the number of observed genotypes are likely to be substantially less than the number of infections present and investigate the performance of two methods for estimating the numbers of infections from high-resolution genotyping data. The simulations suggest that the problem is not substantial in most datasets: the disparity between the mean numbers of infections and of observed genotypes was small when there was 20 or more alleles, 20 or more blood samples, a mean number of infections of 6 or less and where the frequency of the most common allele was no greater than 20%. The issue of multiple infections carrying the same allele is unlikely to be a major component of the errors in PCR-based genotyping. Simulations also showed that, with heterogeneity in allele frequencies, the observed frequencies are not a good approximation of the true allele frequencies. The first method that we proposed to estimate the numbers of infections assumes that they are a good approximation and hence did poorly in the presence of heterogeneity. In contrast, the second method by Li et al estimates both the numbers of infections and the true allele frequencies simultaneously and produced accurate estimates of the mean number of infections.

Efficacy of fixed-dose combination artesunate-amodiaquine versus artemether-lumefantrine for uncomplicated childhood Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Democratic Republic of Congo: a randomized non-inferiority trial

Background

In 2005, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) adopted artesunate and amodiaquine (ASAQ) as first-line anti-malarial treatment. In order to compare the efficacy of the fixed-dose formulation ASAQ versus artemether-lumefantrine (AL), a randomized, non-inferiority open-label trial was conducted in Katanga.

Methods

Children aged six and 59 months with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria were enrolled and randomly allocated into one of the two regimens. The risk of recurrent parasitaemia by day 42, both unadjusted and adjusted by PCR genotyping to distinguish recrudescence from new infection, was analysed.

Results

Between April 2008 and March 2009, 301 children were included: 156 with ASAQ and 145 with AL. No early treatment failures were reported. Among the 256 patients followed-up at day 42, 32 patients developed late clinical or parasitological failure (9.9% (13/131) in the ASAQ group and 15.2% (19/125) in the AL group). After PCR correction, cure rates were 98.3% (95%CI, 94.1-99.8) in the ASAQ group and 99.1% (95%CI, 94.9-99.9) in the AL group (difference −0.7%, one sided 95% CI −3.1). Kaplan-Meier PCR-adjusted cure rates were similar. Both treatment regimens were generally well tolerated.

Conclusion

Both ASAQ and AL are highly effective and currently adequate as the first-line treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in this area of Katanga, DRC. However, in a very large country, such as DRC, and because of possible emergence of resistance from other endemic regions, surveillance of efficacy of artemisinin-based combination treatments, including other evaluations of the resistance of ASAQ, need to be done in other provinces.

Trial registration

The protocol was registered with the clinicaltrials.gov, open clinical trial registry under the identifier number NCT01567423.

Plasmodium falciparum: differential selection of drug resistance alleles in contiguous urban and peri-urban areas of Brazzaville, Republic of Congo

The African continent is currently experiencing rapid population growth, with rising urbanization increasing the percentage of the population living in large towns and cities. We studied the impact of the degree of urbanization on the population genetics of Plasmodium falciparum in urban and peri-urban areas in and around the city of Brazzaville, Republic of Congo. This field setting, which incorporates local health centers situated in areas of varying urbanization, is of interest as it allows the characterization of malaria parasites from areas where the human, parasite, and mosquito populations are shared, but where differences in the degree of urbanization (leading to dramatic differences in transmission intensity) cause the pattern of malaria transmission to differ greatly. We have investigated how these differences in transmission intensity affect parasite genetic diversity, including the amount of genetic polymorphism in each area, the degree of linkage disequilibrium within the populations, and the prevalence and frequency of drug resistance markers. To determine parasite population structure, heterozygosity and linkage disequilibrium, we typed eight microsatellite markers and performed haplotype analysis of the msp1 gene by PCR. Mutations known to be associated with resistance to the antimalarial drugs chloroquine and pyrimethamine were determined by sequencing the relevant portions of the crt and dhfr genes, respectively. We found that parasite genetic diversity was comparable between the two sites, with high levels of polymorphism being maintained in both areas despite dramatic differences in transmission intensity. Crucially, we found that the frequencies of genetic markers of drug resistance against pyrimethamine and chloroquine differed significantly between the sites, indicative of differing selection pressures in the two areas.

Development, evaluation, and application of an in silico model for antimalarial drug treatment and failure

Pharmacological mechanism-based modeling was refined and used to develop an in silico model of antimalarial drug treatment validated against clinical and field data. We used this approach to investigate key features of antimalarial drug action and effectiveness, with emphasis on the current generation of artemisinin combination therapies. We made the following conclusions. (i) The development of artemisinin tolerance and resistance will, unless checked, have an immediate, large impact on the protection afforded to its partner drug and on the likely clinical efficacy of artemisinin combination therapies. (ii) Long follow-up periods are required in clinical trials to detect all drug failures; the follow-up periods of 28 days recommended by the World Health Organization are likely to miss at least 50% of drug failures, and we confirmed recent suggestions that 63 days would be a more appropriate follow-up period. (iii) Day 7 serum drug concentrations are a significant risk factor of failure, although, paradoxically, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that their predictive power is relatively poor. (iv) The pharmacokinetic properties of the partner drugs in artemisinin-containing combination therapies are the most important determinants of treatment outcome, particularly the maximum killing rate. We discuss the assumptions made in such modeling approaches and how similar approaches may be refined in future work.

Uncertain outcomes: adjusting for misclassification in antimalarial efficacy studies

Evaluation of antimalarial efficacy is difficult because recurrent parasitaemia can be due to recrudescence or re-infection. PCR is used to differentiate between recrudescences and re-infections by comparing parasite allelic variants before and after treatment. However, PCR-corrected results are susceptible to misclassification: false positives, due to re-infection by the same variant present in the patient before treatment; and false negatives, due to variants that are present but too infrequent to be detected in the pre-treatment PCR, but are then detectable post-treatment. This paper aimed to explore factors affecting the probability of false positives and proposes a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis to account for both types of misclassification. Higher levels of transmission intensity, increased multiplicity of infection, and limited allelic variation resulted in more false recrudescences. The uncertainty analysis exploits characteristics of study data to minimize bias in the estimate of efficacy and can be applied to areas of different transmission intensity.

Differentiating Plasmodium falciparum alleles by transforming Cartesian X,Y data to polar coordinates

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis of infectious diseases now benefits from advancing technology to perform multiplex analysis of a growing number of variables. These advances enable simultaneous surveillance of markers characterizing species and strain complexity, mutations associated with drug susceptibility, and antigen-based polymorphisms in relation to evaluation of vaccine effectiveness. We have recently developed assays detecting single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the P. falciparum genome that take advantage of post-PCR ligation detection reaction and fluorescent microsphere labeling strategies. Data from these assays produce a spectrum of outcomes showing that infections result from single to multiple strains. Traditional methods for distinguishing true positive signal from background can cause false positive diagnoses leading to incorrect interpretation of outcomes associated with disease treatment.

RESULTS

Following analysis of Plasmodium falciparum dihydrofolate reductase SNPs associated with resistance to a commonly used antimalarial drug, Fansidar (Sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine), and presumably neutral SNPs for parasite strain differentiation, we first evaluated our data after setting a background signal based on the mean plus three standard deviations for known negative control samples. Our analysis of single allelic controls suggested that background for the absent allele increased as the concentration of the target allele increased. To address this problem, we introduced a simple change of variables from customary (X,Y) (Cartesian) coordinates to planar polar coordinates (X = rcos(theta), Y = rsin(theta)). Classification of multidimensional fluorescence signals based on histograms of angular and radial data distributions proved more effective than classification based on Cartesian thresholds. Comparison with known diallelic dilution controls suggests that histogram-based classification is effective for major:minor allele concentration ratios as high as 10:1.

CONCLUSION

We have observed that the diallelic SNP data resulting from analysis of P. falciparum mutations is more accurately diagnosed when a simple polar transform of the (X,Y) data into (r,theta) is used. The development of high through-put methods for genotyping P. falciparum SNPs and the refinement of analytical approaches for evaluating these molecular diagnostic results significantly advance the evaluation of parasite population diversity and antimalarial drug resistance.

The perils of PCR: can we accurately 'correct' antimalarial trials?

During follow-up in antimalarial drug trials, treated subjects can be newly infected. PCR correction is used to distinguish this re-infection from drug failure (recrudescence) and to adjust final drug efficacy estimates. The epidemiological, biological and technical limitations of PCR correction and how this can lead to misclassification in drug trial outcomes are underappreciated. This article considers these limitations and proposes a framework for reporting, interpreting and improving PCR correction of antimalarial trials.

Gel versus capillary electrophoresis genotyping for categorizing treatment outcomes in two anti-malarial trials in Uganda

Background

Molecular genotyping is performed in anti-malarial trials to determine whether recurrent parasitaemia after therapy represents a recrudescence (treatment failure) or new infection. The use of capillary instead of agarose gel electrophoresis for genotyping offers technical advantages, but it is unclear whether capillary electrophoresis will result in improved classification of anti-malarial treatment outcomes.

Methods

Samples were genotyped using both gel and capillary electrophoresis from randomized trials of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) vs. dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) performed in two areas of Uganda: Kanungu, where transmission is moderate, and Apac, where transmission is very high. Both gel and capillary methods evaluated polymorphic regions of the merozoite surface protein 1 and 2 and glutamine rich protein genes.

Results

Capillary electrophoresis detected more alleles and provided higher discriminatory power than agarose gel electrophoresis at both study sites. There was only moderate agreement between classification of outcomes with the two methods in Kanungu (kappa = 0.66) and poor agreement in Apac (kappa = 0.24). Overall efficacy results were similar when using gel vs. capillary methods in Kanungu (42-day risk of treatment failure for AL: 6.9% vs. 5.5%, p = 0.4; DP 2.4% vs. 2.9%, p = 0.5). However, the measured risk of recrudescence was significantly higher when using gel vs. capillary electrophoresis in Apac (risk of treatment failure for AL: 17.0% vs. 10.7%, p = 0.02; DP: 8.5% vs. 3.4%, p = 0.03). Risk differences between AL and DP were not significantly different whether gel or capillary methods were used.

Conclusions

Genotyping with gel electrophoresis overestimates the risk of recrudescence in anti-malarial trials performed in areas of high transmission intensity. Capillary electrophoresis provides more accurate outcomes for such trials and should be performed when possible. In areas of moderate transmission, gel electrophoresis appears adequate to estimate comparative risks of treatment failure.

Comparison of Plasmodium falciparum allelic frequency distribution in different endemic settings by high-resolution genotyping

Background

The diversity of genotyping markers of Plasmodium falciparum depends on transmission intensity. It has been reported that the diversity of the merozoite surface protein 2 (msp2) is greater in areas of high compared to low endemicity, however, results for msp1 were inconsistent. These previous reports relied on low resolution genotyping techniques.

Methods

In the present study, a high-resolution capillary electrophoresis-based technique was applied to genotype samples from areas of different endemicity in Papua New Guinea and Tanzania. For both endemic settings, the diversity of msp1 and msp2 was investigated; the mean multiplicity of infection (MOI) and the F_ST values were determined to investigate whether more accurate sizing generates different results.

Results and Conclusion

The results of the present study confirmed previous reports of a higher mean MOI for both marker genes and increased genetic diversity in areas of higher endemicity as estimated by the total number of distinct alleles for msp2. For msp1 a minor increase in diversity was observed. Measures of between population variance in allele frequencies (F_ST) indicated little genetic differentiation for both marker genes between the two populations from different endemic settings. MOI adjusted for the probability of multiple infections sharing the same allele was estimated by using the msp2 allele frequency distribution and the distribution of observed numbers of concurrent infections. For the high-resolution typing technique applied in this study, this adjustment made little difference to the estimated mean MOI compared to the observed mean MOI.

Impact of the method of G6PD deficiency assessment on genetic association studies of malaria susceptibility

Background

Clinical association studies have yielded varied results regarding the impact of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency upon susceptibility to malaria. Analyses have been complicated by varied methods used to diagnose G6PD deficiency.

Methodology/Prinicipal Findings

We compared the association between uncomplicated malaria incidence and G6PD deficiency in a cohort of 601 Ugandan children using two different diagnostic methods, enzyme activity and G6PD genotype (G202A, the predominant East African allele). Although roughly the same percentage of males were identified as deficient using enzyme activity (12%) and genotype (14%), nearly 30% of males who were enzymatically deficient were wild-type at G202A. The number of deficient females was three-fold higher with assessment by genotype (21%) compared to enzyme activity (7%). Heterozygous females accounted for the majority (46/54) of children with a mutant genotype but normal enzyme activity. G6PD deficiency, as determined by G6PD enzyme activity, conferred a 52% (relative risk [RR] 0.48, 95% CI 0.31–0.75) reduced risk of uncomplicated malaria in females. In contrast, when G6PD deficiency was defined based on genotype, the protective association for females was no longer seen (RR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.70–1.39). Notably, restricting the analysis to those females who were both genotypically and enzymatically deficient, the association of deficiency and protection from uncomplicated malaria was again demonstrated in females, but not in males (RR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.37–0.88 for females).

Conclusions/Significance

This study underscores the impact that the method of identifying G6PD deficient individuals has upon association studies of G6PD deficiency and uncomplicated malaria. We found that G6PD-deficient females were significantly protected against uncomplicated malaria, but this protection was only seen when G6PD deficiency is described using enzyme activity. These observations may help to explain the discrepancy in some published association studies involving G6PD deficiency and uncomplicated malaria.

Misclassification of drug failure in Plasmodium falciparum clinical trials in southeast Asia

Most trials of antimalarials occur in areas in which reinfections are possible. For Plasmodium falciparum, reinfections are distinguished from recrudescences by polymerase chain reaction analysis of 3 polymorphic genes. However, the validity of this approach has never been rigorously tested. We tested for misclassification in 6 patients from clinical trials in Thailand and Cambodia who were classified as being reinfected by the standard polymerase chain reaction protocol. Using heteroduplex tracking assays and direct DNA sequencing, we found that 5 (83%) of 6 patients were misclassified. Misclassification in this manner overestimates the efficacy of antimalarials and delays the recognition of decreasing therapeutic efficacy, thus delaying potential changes in policy.

Varying efficacy of artesunate+amodiaquine and artesunate+sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in the Democratic Republic of Congo: a report of two in-vivo studies

BACKGROUND

Very few data on anti-malarial efficacy are available from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). DRC changed its anti-malarial treatment policy to amodiaquine (AQ) and artesunate (AS) in 2005.

METHODS

The results of two in vivo efficacy studies, which tested AQ and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) monotherapies and AS+SP and AS+AQ combinations in Boende (Equatorial province), and AS+SP, AS+AQ and SP in Kabalo (Katanga province), between 2003 and 2004 are presented. The methodology followed the WHO 2003 protocol for assessing the efficacy of anti-malarials in areas of high transmission.

RESULTS

Out of 394 included patients in Boende, the failure rates on day 28 after PCR-genotyping adjustment of AS+SP and AS+AQ were estimated as 24.6% [95% CI: 16.6-35.5] and 15.1% [95% CI: 8.6-25.7], respectively. For the monotherapies, failure rates were 35.9% [95% CI: 27.0-46.7] for SP and 18.3% [95% CI: 11.6-28.1] for AQ. Out of 207 patients enrolled in Kabalo, the failure rate on day 28 after PCR-genotyping adjustment was 0 [1-sided 95% CI: 5.8] for AS+SP and AS+AQ [1-sided 95% CI: 6.2]. It was 19.6% [95% CI: 11.4-32.7] for SP monotherapy.

CONCLUSION

The finding of varying efficacy of the same combinations at two sites in one country highlights one difficulty of implementing a uniform national treatment policy in a large country. The poor efficacy of AS+AQ in Boende should alert the national programme to foci of resistance and emphasizes the need for systems for the prospective monitoring of treatment efficacy at sentinel sites in the country.

Decreasing efficacy of antimalarial combination therapy in Uganda is explained by decreasing host immunity rather than increasing drug resistance

BACKGROUND

Improved control efforts are reducing the burden of malaria in Africa but may result in decreased antimalarial immunity.

METHODS

A cohort of 129 children aged 1-10 years in Kampala, Uganda, were treated with amodiaquine plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for 396 episodes of uncomplicated malaria over a 29-month period as part of a longitudinal clinical trial.

RESULTS

The risk of treatment failure increased over the course of the study from 5% to 21% (hazard ratio [HR], 2.4 per year [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.3-4.3]). Parasite genetic polymorphisms were associated with an increased risk of failure, but their prevalence did not change over time. Three markers of antimalarial immunity were associated with a decreased risk of treatment failure: increased age (HR, 0.5 per 5-year increase [95% CI, 0.2-1.2]), living in an area of higher malaria incidence (HR, 0.26 [95% CI, 0.11-0.64]), and recent asymptomatic parasitemia (HR, 0.06 [95% CI, 0.01-0.36]). In multivariate analysis, adjustment for recent asymptomatic parasitemia, but not parasite polymorphisms, removed the association between calendar time and the risk of treatment failure (HR, 1.5 per year [95% CI, 0.7-3.4]), suggesting that worsening treatment efficacy was best explained by decreasing host immunity.

CONCLUSION

Declining immunity in our study population appeared to be the primary factor underlying decreased efficacy of amodiaquine plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. With improved malaria-control efforts, decreasing immunity may unmask resistance to partially efficacious drugs.