Excess mortality among children discharged from hospital after treatment for diarrhoea in rural Bangladesh

Pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Under-five mortality remains concentrated in resource-poor countries. Post-discharge mortality is becoming increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to overall child mortality. With a substantial recent expansion of research and novel data synthesis methods, this study aims to update the current evidence base by providing a more nuanced understanding of the burden and associated risk factors of pediatric post-discharge mortality after acute illness.

Methods

Eligible studies published between January 1, 2017 and January 31, 2023, were retrieved using MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL databases. Studies published before 2017 were identified in a previous review and added to the total pool of studies. Only studies from countries with low or low-middle Socio-Demographic Index with a post-discharge observation period greater than seven days were included. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified version of the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies. Studies were grouped by patient population, and 6-month post-discharge mortality rates were quantified by random-effects meta-analysis. Secondary outcomes included post-discharge mortality relative to in-hospital mortality, pooled risk factor estimates, and pooled post-discharge Kaplan-Meier survival curves. PROSPERO study registration: #CRD42022350975.

Findings

Of 1963 articles screened, 42 eligible articles were identified and combined with 22 articles identified in the previous review, resulting in 64 total articles. These articles represented 46 unique patient cohorts and included a total of 105,560 children. For children admitted with a general acute illness, the pooled risk of mortality six months post-discharge was 4.4% (95% CI: 3.5%-5.4%, I2 = 94.2%, n = 11 studies, 34,457 children), and the pooled in-hospital mortality rate was 5.9% (95% CI: 4.2%-7.7%, I2 = 98.7%, n = 12 studies, 63,307 children). Among disease subgroups, severe malnutrition (12.2%, 95% CI: 6.2%-19.7%, I2 = 98.2%, n = 10 studies, 7760 children) and severe anemia (6.4%, 95% CI: 4.2%-9.1%, I2 = 93.3%, n = 9 studies, 7806 children) demonstrated the highest 6-month post-discharge mortality estimates. Diarrhea demonstrated the shortest median time to death (3.3 weeks) and anemia the longest (8.9 weeks). Most significant risk factors for post-discharge mortality included unplanned discharges, severe malnutrition, and HIV seropositivity.

Interpretation

Pediatric post-discharge mortality rates remain high in resource-poor settings, especially among children admitted with malnutrition or anemia. Global health strategies must prioritize this health issue by dedicating resources to research and policy innovation.

Funding

No specific funding was received.

Trend of risk and correlates of under-five child undernutrition in Bangladesh: an analysis based on Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data, 2007-2017/2018

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of this study are to identify the trend of undernutrition risk among under-five children (U5C) in Bangladesh and the trend of its correlates.

DESIGN

Multiple cross-sectional data sets from different time points were used.

SETTING

Nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) were conducted in 2007, 2011, 2014 and 2017/2018.

PARTICIPANTS

In the BDHSs, the sample sizes for ever-married women (age: 15-49 years) were 5300 in 2007, 7647 in 2011, 6965 in 2014 and 7902 in 2017/2018.

OUTCOMES

Extant indicators of undernutrition (stunted, wasted and underweight) have been considered as the outcome variables.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Descriptive statistics, bivariate analysis and factor loadings from factor analysis have been used to determine the prevalence of undernutrition over the years and find the trend of risk and its correlates.

RESULTS

Risks of stunting among the U5C were 41.70%, 40.67%, 36.57% and 31.14%; that of wasting were 16.94%, 15.48%, 14.43% and 8.44%; and that of underweight were 39.79%, 35.80%, 32.45% and 22.46% in 2007, 2011, 2014 and 2017/2018, respectively. From the factor analysis, it has been found that the top five potential correlates of undernutrition are the wealth index, the education of the father and mother, the frequency of antenatal visits during pregnancy, the father's occupation and/or the type of place of residence in the last four consecutive surveys.

CONCLUSION

This study helps us gain a better understanding of the impact of the top correlates on child undernutrition. To accelerate the reduction of child undernutrition more by 2030, Government and non-government organisations should focus on improving education and household income-generating activities among poor households and raising awareness among women about the importance of receiving antenatal care during pregnancy.

Treatment-seeking and recovery among young undernourished children post-hospital discharge in Bangladesh: A qualitative study

INTRODUCTION

Post-hospital discharge mortality is high among undernourished children in many low and middle-income countries. Although a number of quantitative studies have highlighted a range of potential socio-cultural, economic and health system factors influencing paediatric post-discharge treatment-seeking and recovery, few studies have explored family and provider perspectives of the post-discharge period in-depth.

METHODS

This work was part of a large, multi-country prospective cohort study, the Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) Network. We conducted a qualitative sub-study to understand the post-discharge treatment-seeking and recovery experiences of families of undernourished children aged 2-23 months admitted in a rural and urban icddr,b (International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh) hospital. Methods included repeat in-depth interviews (73 interviews in total) with 29 family members of 17 purposively selected children. These data were supplemented by interviews with 33 health workers, and by observations in hospitals and homes.

RESULTS

Important drivers of treatment-seeking perceived to support recovery included advice provided to family members while in hospital, media campaigns on hygiene practice, availability of free treatment, and social and financial support from family members, relatives and neighbours. Key perceived challenges included low household incomes, mothers having to juggle multiple responsibilities in addition to caring for the sick child, lack of support (sometimes violence) from the child's father, and family members' preference for relatively accessible drug shops, physicians or healers over hospital admission.

CONCLUSION

Development of interventions that address the challenges that families face is essential to support post-discharge adherence to medical advice and recovery. Potential interventions include strengthening information giving during hospitalization on what post-discharge care is needed and why, reducing direct and indirect costs associated with hospital visits, engaging fathers and other 'significant others' in post-discharge advice, and building mobile phone-based support for follow-up care.

Clinical and laboratory predictors of 30-day mortality in severe acute malnourished children with severe pneumonia

OBJECTIVE

To determine the predictors of mortality within 30 days of hospital admission in a diarrhoeal disease hospital in Bangladesh.

METHODS

Cohort study of hospitalised children aged 0-59 months with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and severe pneumonia in Dhaka Hospital, icddr,b, Bangladesh from April 2015 to March 2017. Those discharged were followed up, and survival status at 30 days from admission was determined. Children who died were compared with the survivors in terms of clinical and laboratory biomarkers. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used for calculating adjusted odds ratio for death within 30 days of hospital admission.

RESULTS

We enrolled 191 children. Mortality within 30 days of admission was 6% (14/191). After adjusting for potential confounders (hypoxia, CRP and haematocrit) in logistic regression analysis, independent factors associated with death were female sex (aOR = 5.80, 95% CI: 1.34-25.19), LAZ <-4 (aOR = 6.51, 95% CI: 1.49-28.44) and Polymorphonuclear Leucocytes (PMNL) (>6.0 × 10⁹ /L) (aOR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01-1.11). Using sex, Z-score for length for age (LAZ), and PMNL percentage, we used random forest and linear regression models to achieve a cross-validated AUC of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.84) for prediction of 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of our data suggest that female sex, severe malnutrition (<-4 LAZ) and higher PMNL percentage were prone to be associated with 30-day mortality in children with severe pneumonia. Association of these factors may be used in clinical decision support for prompt identification and appropriate management for prevention of mortality in this population.

Very severe anemia and one year mortality outcome after hospitalization in Tanzanian children: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Africa has the highest rates of child mortality. Little is known about outcomes after hospitalization for children with very severe anemia.

OBJECTIVE

To determine one year mortality and predictors of mortality in Tanzanian children hospitalized with very severe anemia.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study enrolling children 2-12 years hospitalized from August 2014 to November 2014 at two public hospitals in northwestern Tanzania. Children were screened for anemia and followed until 12 months after discharge. The primary outcome measured was mortality. Predictors of mortality were determined using Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 505 children, 90 (17.8%) had very severe anemia and 415 (82.1%) did not. Mortality was higher for children with very severe anemia compared to children without over a one year period from admission, 27/90 (30.0%) vs. 59/415 (14.2%) respectively (Hazard Ratio (HR) 2.42, 95% Cl 1.53-3.83). In-hospital mortality was 11/90 (12.2%) and post-hospital mortality was 16/79 (20.2%) for children with very severe anemia. The strongest predictors of mortality were age (HR 1.01, 95% Cl 1.00-1.03) and decreased urine output (HR 4.30, 95% Cl 1.04-17.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Children up to 12 years of age with very severe anemia have nearly a 30% chance of mortality following admission over a one year period, with over 50% of mortality occurring after discharge. Post-hospital interventions are urgently needed to reduce mortality in children with very severe anemia, and should include older children.

Mortality after inpatient treatment for diarrhea in children: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is an increasing recognition that children remain at elevated risk of death following discharge from health facilities in resource-poor settings. Diarrhea has previously been highlighted as a risk factor for post-discharge mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to estimate the incidence and demographic, clinical, and biochemical features associated with inpatient and 1-year post-discharge mortality amongst children aged 2-59 months admitted with diarrhea from 2007 to 2015 at Kilifi County Hospital and who were residents of Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Log-binomial regression was used to identify risk factors for inpatient mortality. Time at risk was from the date of discharge to the date of death, out-migration, or 365 days later. Post-discharge mortality rate was computed per 1000 child-years of observation, and Cox proportion regression used to identify risk factors for mortality.

RESULTS

Two thousand six hundred twenty-six child KHDSS residents were admitted with diarrhea, median age 13 (IQR 8-21) months, of which 415 (16%) were severely malnourished and 130 (5.0%) had a positive HIV test. One hundred twenty-one (4.6%) died in the hospital, and of 2505 children discharged alive, 49 (2.1%) died after discharge: 21.4 (95% CI 16.1-28.3) deaths per 1000 child-years. Admission with signs of both diarrhea and severe pneumonia or severe pneumonia alone had a higher risk of both inpatient and post-discharge mortality than admission for diarrhea alone. There was no significant difference in inpatient and post-discharge mortality between children admitted with diarrhea alone and those with other diagnoses excluding severe pneumonia. HIV, low mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), and bacteremia were associated with both inpatient and post-discharge mortality. Signs of circulatory impairment, sepsis, and abnormal electrolytes were associated with inpatient but not post-discharge mortality. Prior admission and lower chest wall indrawing were associated with post-discharge mortality but not inpatient mortality. Age, stuntedness, and persistent or bloody diarrhea were not associated with mortality before or after discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results accentuate the need for research to improve the uptake and outcomes of services for malnutrition and HIV as well as to elucidate causal pathways and test interventions to mitigate these risks.

Postdischarge Mortality Prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Although the burden of postdischarge mortality (PDM) in low-income settings appears to be significant, no clear recommendations have been proposed in relation to follow-up care after hospitalization. We aimed to determine the burden of pediatric PDM and develop predictive models to identify children who are at risk for dying after discharge.

METHODS

Deaths after hospital discharge among children aged <15 years in the last 17 years were reviewed in an area under demographic and morbidity surveillance in Southern Mozambique. We determined PDM over time (up to 90 days) and derived predictive models of PDM using easily collected variables on admission.

RESULTS

Overall PDM was high (3.6%), with half of the deaths occurring in the first 30 days. One primary predictive model for all ages included young age, moderate or severe malnutrition, a history of diarrhea, clinical pneumonia symptoms, prostration, bacteremia, having a positive HIV status, the rainy season, and transfer or absconding, with an area under the curve of 0.79 (0.75-0.82) at day 90 after discharge. Alternative models for all ages including simplified clinical predictors had a similar performance. A model specific to infants <3 months old was used to identify as predictors being a neonate, having a low weight-for-age z score, having breathing difficulties, having hypothermia or fever, having oral candidiasis, and having a history of absconding or transfer to another hospital, with an area under the curve of 0.76 (0.72-0.91) at day 90 of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Death after discharge is an important although poorly recognized contributor to child mortality. A simple predictive algorithm based on easily recognizable variables could readily be used to identify most infants and children who are at a high risk of dying after discharge.

Paediatric postdischarge mortality in developing countries: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To update the current evidence base on paediatric postdischarge mortality (PDM) in developing countries. Secondary objectives included an evaluation of risk factors, timing and location of PDM.

DESIGN

Systematic literature review without meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Searches of Medline and EMBASE were conducted from October 2012 to July 2017.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies were included if they were conducted in developing countries and examined paediatric PDM. 1238 articles were screened, yielding 11 eligible studies. These were added to 13 studies identified in a previous systematic review including studies prior to October 2012. In total, 24 studies were included for analysis.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two independent reviewers extracted and synthesised data using Microsoft Excel.

RESULTS

Studies were conducted mostly within African countries (19 of 24) and looked at all admissions or specific subsets of admissions. The primary subpopulations included malnutrition, respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, malaria and anaemia. The anaemia and malaria subpopulations had the lowest PDM rates (typically 1%-2%), while those with malnutrition and respiratory infections had the highest (typically 3%-20%). Although there was significant heterogeneity between study populations and follow-up periods, studies consistently found rates of PDM to be similar, or to exceed, in-hospital mortality. Furthermore, over two-thirds of deaths after discharge occurred at home. Highly significant risk factors for PDM across all infectious admissions included HIV status, young age, pneumonia, malnutrition, anthropometric variables, hypoxia, anaemia, leaving hospital against medical advice and previous hospitalisations.

CONCLUSIONS

Postdischarge mortality rates are often as high as in-hospital mortality, yet remain largely unaddressed. Most children who die following discharge do so at home, suggesting that interventions applied prior to discharge are ideal to addressing this neglected cause of mortality. The development, therefore, of evidence-based, risk-guided, interventions must be a focus to achieve the sustainable development goals.

Post-hospital mortality in children aged 2-12 years in Tanzania: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rates of child mortality worldwide. Little is known about post-hospital outcomes after an index hospitalization for older children. We determined 12-month post-hospital mortality rate and identified factors associated with higher mortality.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, we enrolled children 2-12 years of age admitted to the pediatric wards of two public hospitals in northwestern Tanzania. Participants or proxies were contacted at 3, 6 and 12 months post-hospitalization. The primary outcome measured was mortality. Factors associated with mortality were determined using Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 506 participants were enrolled. In-hospital mortality rate was 7.7% (39/506). Of the 467 participants discharged, the post-hospital mortality rate was 10.1% (47/467). Sickle cell disease (Hazard Ratio (HR) 3.32, 95% CI 1.44-7.68), severe malnutrition (HR 3.19, 95% CI 1.18-8.57), neurologic diseases (HR 3.51, 95% CI 1.35-9.11), heart disease (HR 7.11, 95% CI, 2.89-17.51), cancer (HR 11.79, 95% CI 4.95-28.03), and septic shock (HR 4.64, 95% CI 1.42-15.08) had higher association with mortality compared to other diagnoses. The risk factors significantly associated with mortality included older age (HR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.08), lower hemoglobin level (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.76-0.90), lower Glasgow Coma Scale (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.59-0.74), history of decreased urine output (HR 2.87, 95% CI 1.49-5.53), higher respiratory rate (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03), estimated glomerular filtration rate less than 60 ml/min/1.73m2 (binary) (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.10-3.10), and lower oxygen saturation (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.92-0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

Post-hospital mortality is disturbingly high among children 2-12 years of age in Tanzania. Post-hospital interventions are urgently needed especially for older children with chronic illnesses.

Recovery and relapse from severe acute malnutrition after treatment: a prospective, observational cohort trial in Pakistan

OBJECTIVE

Millions of children suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in low- and middle- income countries. Much is known about the effectiveness of community treatment programmes (CMAM) but little is known about post-discharge outcomes after successful treatment. The present study aimed to evaluate post-discharge outcomes of children cured of SAM.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational cohort study. Children with SAM who were discharged as cured were followed monthly for 6 months or until they experienced relapse to SAM. 'Cure' was defined as a child achieving a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of ≥115 mm with ≥15 % weight gain after loss of oedema. Relapse was defined as a child with MUAC<115 mm and/or oedema at any monthly visit.

SETTING

Save the Children CMAM programme in Swabi, Pakistan, from January 2012 to December 2014.

SUBJECTS

Children aged 6-59 months (n 117) discharged as cured from the CMAM programme were eligible for the study and followed for 6 months.

RESULTS

One hundred children (92·6 %) remained free of SAM, eight (7·4 %) relapsed to SAM, nine (8·3 %) were lost to follow-up and none died. Most relapses occurred within 3 months of discharge (mean time to relapse 73·4 (sd 36·2) d). At enrolment, 90 % had moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) and 10 % were not malnourished. By the end of 6 months, 35 % persisted with MAM and the remaining were not malnourished.

CONCLUSIONS

In rural Pakistan, fewer than 10 % of children cured of SAM relapsed. The first 3 months is the most vulnerable time.

Safety and practicability of using mid-upper arm circumference as a discharge criterion in community based management of severe acute malnutrition in children aged 6 to 59 months programmes

BACKGROUND

The use of proportional weight gain as a discharge criterion for MUAC admissions to programs treating severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is no longer recommended by WHO. The critical limitation with the proportional weight gain criterion was that children who are most severely malnourished tended to receive shorter treatment compared to less severely malnourished children. Studies have shown that using a discharge criterion of MUAC ≥ 125 mm eliminates this problem but concerns remain over the duration of treatment required to reach this criterion and whether this discharge criterion is safe. This study assessed the safety and practicability of using MUAC ≥ 125 mm as a discharge criterion for community based management of SAM in children aged 6 to 59 months.

METHODS

A standards-based trial was undertaken in health facilities for the outpatient treatment of SAM in Lilongwe District, Malawi. 258 children aged 6 to 51 months were enrolled with uncomplicated SAM as defined by a MUAC equal or less than 115 mm without serious medical complications. Children were discharged from treatment as 'cured' when they achieved a MUAC of 125 mm or greater for two consecutive visits. After discharge, children were followed-up at home every two weeks for three months.

RESULTS

This study confirms that a MUAC discharge criterion of 125 mm or greater is a safe discharge criterion and is associated with low levels of relapse to SAM (1.9 %) and mortality (1.3 %) with long durations of treatment seen only in the most severe SAM cases. The proportion of children experiencing a negative outcome was 3.2 % and significantly below the 10 % standard (p = 0.0013) established for the study. All children with negative outcomes had achieved weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) above -1 z-scores at discharge. Children admitted with lower MUAC had higher proportional weight gains (p < 0.001) and longer lengths of stay (p < 0.0001). MUAC at admission and attendance were both independently associated with cure (p < 0.0001). There was no association with negative outcomes at three months post discharge for children with heights at admission below 65 cm than for taller children (p = 0.5798).

CONCLUSIONS

These results are consistent with MUAC ≥ 125 mm for two consecutive visits being a safe and practicable discharge criterion. Use of a MUAC threshold of 125 mm for discharge achieves reasonable lengths of stay and was also found to be appropriate for children aged six months or older who are less than 65 cm in height at admission. Early detection and recruitment of SAM cases using MUAC in the community and compliance with the CMAM treatment protocols should reduce lengths of stay and associated treatment costs.

Child Mortality after Discharge from a Health Facility following Suspected Pneumonia, Meningitis or Septicaemia in Rural Gambia: A Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To measure mortality and its risk factors among children discharged from a health centre in rural Gambia.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study between 12 May 2008 and 11 May 2012. Children aged 2-59 months, admitted with suspected pneumonia, sepsis, or meningitis after presenting to primary and secondary care facilities, were followed for 180 days after discharge. We developed models associating post-discharge mortality with clinical syndrome on admission and clinical risk factors.

FINDINGS

One hundred and five of 3755 (2.8%) children died, 80% within 3 months of discharge. Among children aged 2-11 and 12-59 months, there were 30 and 29 deaths per 1000 children per 180 days respectively, compared to 11 and 5 respectively in the resident population. Children with suspected pneumonia unaccompanied by clinically severe malnutrition (CSM) had the lowest risk of post-discharge mortality. Mortality increased in children with suspected meningitis or septicaemia without CSM (hazard ratio [HR] 2.6 and 2.2 respectively). The risk of mortality greatly increased with CSM on admission: CSM with suspected pneumonia (HR 8.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.4 to 15), suspected sepsis (HR 18.4; 95% CI 11.3 to 30), or suspected meningitis (HR 13.7; 95% CI 4.2 to 45). Independent associations with mortality were: mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of 11.5-13.0 cm compared to >13.0 cm (HR 7.2; 95% CI 3.0 to 17.0), MUAC 10.5-11.4 cm (HR 24; 95% CI 9.4 to 62), and MUAC <10.5 cm (HR 44; 95% CI 18 to 108), neck stiffness (HR 10.4; 95% CI 3.1 to 34.8), non-medical discharge (HR 4.7; 95% CI 2.0 to 10.9), dry season discharge (HR 2.0; 95% CI 1.2 to 3.3), while greater haemoglobin (HR 0.82; 0.73 to 0.91), axillary temperature (HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.87), and oxygen saturation (HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.99) were associated with reduced mortality.

CONCLUSION

Gambian children experience increased mortality after discharge from primary and secondary care. Interventions should target both moderately and severely malnourished children.

Post-discharge mortality in children with severe malnutrition and pneumonia in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Post-discharge mortality among children with severe illness in resource-limited settings is under-recognized and there are limited data. We evaluated post-discharge mortality in a recently reported cohort of children with severe malnutrition and pneumonia, and identified characteristics associated with an increased risk of death.

METHODS

Young children (<5 years of age) with severe malnutrition (WHO criteria) and radiographic pneumonia on admission to Dhaka Hospital of icddr,b over a 15-month period were managed according to standard protocols. Those discharged were followed-up and survival status at 12 weeks post-discharge was determined. Verbal autopsy was requested from families of those that died.

RESULTS

Of 405 children hospitalized with severe malnutrition and pneumonia, 369 (median age, 10 months) were discharged alive with a follow-up plan. Of these, 32 (8.7%) died in the community within 3 months of discharge: median 22 (IQR 9-35) days from discharge to death. Most deaths were reportedly associated with acute onset of new respiratory or gastrointestinal symptoms. Those that died following discharge were significantly younger (median 6 [IQR 3,12] months) and more severely malnourished, on admission and on discharge, than those that survived. Bivariate analysis found that severe wasting on admission (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.66-7.97) and age <12 months (OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.1-8.8) were significantly associated with post-discharge death. Of those that died in the community, none had attended a scheduled follow-up and care-seeking from a traditional healer was more common (p<0.001) compared to those who survived.

CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE

Post-discharge mortality was common in Bangladeshi children following inpatient care for severe malnutrition and pneumonia. The underlying contributing factors require a better understanding to inform the potential of interventions that could improve survival.

Pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource poor countries: a systematic review

Objectives

Mortality following hospital discharge is an important and under-recognized contributor to overall child mortality in developing countries. The primary objective of this systematic review was to identify all studies reporting post-discharge mortality in children, estimate likelihood of death, and determine the most important risk factors for death.

Search Strategy

MEDLINE and EMBASE were systematically searched using MeSH terms and keywords from the inception date to October, 2012. Key word searches using Google Scholar™ and hand searching of references of retrieved articles was also performed. Studies from developing countries reporting mortality following hospital discharge among a pediatric population were considered for inclusion.

Results

Thirteen studies that reported mortality rates following discharge were identified. Studies varied significantly according to design, underlying characteristics of study population and duration of follow-up. Mortality rates following discharge varied significantly between studies (1%–18%). When reported, post-discharge mortality rates often exceeded in-hospital mortality rates. The most important baseline variables associated with post-discharge mortality were young age, malnutrition, multiple previous hospitalizations, HIV infection and pneumonia. Most post-discharge deaths occurred early during the post-discharge period. Follow-up care was examined in only one study examining malaria prophylaxis in children discharged following an admission secondary to malaria, which showed no significant benefit on post-discharge mortality.

Conclusions

The months following hospital discharge carry significant risk for morbidity and mortality. While several characteristics are strongly associated with post-discharge mortality, no validated tools are available to aid health workers or policy makers in the systematic identification of children at high risk of post-discharge mortality. Future research must focus on both the creation of tools to aid in defining groups of children most likely to benefit from post-discharge interventions, and formal assessment of the effectiveness of such interventions in reducing morbidity and mortality in the first few months following hospital discharge.

Effects of community-based follow-up care in managing severely underweight children

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of community-based follow-up care, food supplementation, and/or psychosocial stimulation on the recovery of severely underweight children.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 507 severely underweight children (weight-for-age z score <-3) ages 6 to 24 months hospitalized at the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, were randomly assigned to 1 of the following regimens for 3 months once they recovered from diarrhea: fortnightly follow-up care at the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh Hospital, including growth monitoring, health education, and micronutrient supplementation (group H-C, n = 102); fortnightly follow-up at community clinics, using the same treatment regimen as group H-C (group C-C, n = 99); community-based follow-up as per group C-C plus cereal-based supplementary food (SF) (group C-SF, n = 101); follow-up as per group C-C plus psychosocial stimulation (PS) (group C-PS, n = 102); or follow-up as per group C-C plus both SF and PS (group C-SF + PS, n = 103).

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics by treatment group. Attendance at scheduled follow-up visits was greater in groups C-SF, C-SF + PS, and C-PS than in C-C and H-C; P < 0.05. Rates of weight gain were greater in groups C-SF + PS, C-SF, and C-PS (0.88-1.01 kg) compared with groups C-C and H-C (0.63-0.76 kg), P < 0.05. Three-factor analysis of covariance of the effects of treatment components indicated that weight gain and change in weight-for-age z score and weight-for-length z score were greater in groups that received SF (P < 0.05) and linear growth was greater among children managed in the community (P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Positioning follow-up services in the community increases follow-up visits and promotes greater linear growth; providing SF, with or without PS, increases clinic attendance and enhances nutritional recovery. Community-based service delivery, especially including SF, permits better rehabilitation of greater numbers of severely underweight children.

Excess child mortality after discharge from hospital in Kilifi, Kenya: a retrospective cohort analysis

OBJECTIVE

To explore excess paediatric mortality after discharge from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and its duration and risk factors.

METHODS

Hospital and demographic data were used to describe post-discharge mortality and survival probability in children aged < 15 years, by age group and clinical syndrome. Cox regression models were developed to identify risk factors.

FINDINGS

In 2004-2008, approximately 111,000 children were followed for 555,000 person-years. We analysed 14,971 discharges and 535 deaths occurring within 365 days of discharge. Mortality was higher in the post-discharge cohort than in the community cohort (age-adjusted rate ratio, RR: 7.7; 95% confidence interval, CI: 6.6-8.9) and declined little over time. An increased post-discharge mortality hazard was found in children aged < 5 years with the following: weight-for-age Z score < -4 (hazard ratio, HR: 6.5); weight-for-age Z score > -4 but < -3 (HR: 3.4); hypoxia (HR: 2.3); bacteraemia (HR: 1.8); hepatomegaly (HR: 2.3); jaundice (HR: 1.8); hospital stay > 13 days (HR: 1.8). Older age was protective (reference < 1 month): 6-23 months, HR: 0.8; 2-4 years, HR: 0.6. Children with at least one risk factor accounted for 545 (33%) of the 1655 annual discharges and for 39 (47%) of the 83 discharge-associated deaths.

CONCLUSION

Hospital admission selects vulnerable children with a sustained increased risk of dying. The risk factors identified provide an empiric basis for effective outpatient follow-up.

Risk factors of mortality in severely-malnourished children hospitalized with diarrhoea

This case-control study was conducted in the Dhaka Hospital of ICDDR,B to identify the risk factors of mortality in severely-malnourished children hospitalized with diarrhoea. One hundred and three severely-malnourished children (weight-for-age <60% of median of the National Center for Health Statistics standard) who died during hospitalization were compared with another 103 severely-malnourished children who survived. These children were aged less than three years and admitted to the hospital during 1997. On admission, characteristics of the fatal cases and non-fatal controls were comparable, except for age. The median age of the cases and controls were six and eight months respectively (p = 0.05). Patients with low pulse rate or imperceptible pulse had three times the odds of death compared to the control group (p < 0.01). The presence of clinical septicaemia and clinical severe anaemia had 11.7 and 4.2 times the odds of death respectively (p < 0.01). Patients with leukocytosis (> 15,000/cm3) had 2.5 times the odds of death (p < 0.01). Using logistic regression, clinical septicaemia [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.8, confidence interval (CI) 3.7-21.1, p = 0.01], hypothermia (AOR = 3.5, CI 1.3-9.4, p < 0.01), and bronchopneumonia (AOR=3.0, CI 1.2-7.3, p < 0.01) were identified as the significant risk factors of mortality. Severely-malnourished children (n=129) with leukocytosis, imperceptible pulse, pneumonia, septicaemia, and hypothermia had a high risk of mortality. The identified risk factors can be used as a prognostic guide for patients with diarrhoea and severe malnutrition.

Nutrition: basis for healthy children and mothers in Bangladesh

Recent data from the World Health Organization showed that about 60% of all deaths, occurring among children aged less than five years (under-five children) in developing countries, could be attributed to malnutrition. It has been estimated that nearly 50.6 million under-five children are malnourished, and almost 90% of these children are from developing countries. Bangladesh is one of the countries with the highest rate of malnutrition. The recent baseline survey by the National Nutrition Programme (NNP) showed high rates of stunting, underweight, and wasting. However, data from the nutrition surveillance at the ICDDR,B hospital showed that the proportion of children with stunting, underweight, and wasting has actually reduced during 1984-2005. Inappropriate infant and young child-feeding practices (breastfeeding and complementary feeding) have been identified as a major cause of malnutrition. In Bangladesh, although the median duration of breastfeeding is about 30 months, the rate of exclusive breastfeeding until the first six months of life is low, and practice of appropriate complementary feeding is not satisfactory. Different surveys done by the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), and Bangladesh Breastfeeding Foundation (BBF) showed a rate of exclusive breastfeeding to be around 32-52%, which have actually remained same or declined over time. The NNP baseline survey using a strict definition of exclusive breastfeeding showed a rate of exclusive breastfeeding (12.8%) until six months of age. Another study from the Abhoynagar field site of ICDDR,B reported the prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding to be 15% only. Considerable efforts have been made to improve the rates of exclusive breastfeeding. Nationally, initiation of breastfeeding within one hour of birth, feeding colostrum, and exclusive breastfeeding have been promoted through the Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative (BFHI) implemented and supported by BBF and UNICEF respectively. Since most (87-91%) deliveries take place in home, the BFHI has a limited impact on the breastfeeding practices. Results of a few studies done at ICDDR,B and elsewhere in developing countries showed that the breastfeeding peer-counselling method could substantially increase the rates of exclusive breastfeeding. Results of a study in urban Dhaka showed that the rate of exclusive breastfeeding was 70% among mothers who were counselled compared to only 6% who were not counselled. Results of another study in rural Bangladesh showed that peer-counselling given either individually or in a group improved the rate of exclusive breastfeeding from 89% to 81% compared to those mothers who received regular health messages only. This implies that scaling up peer-counselling methods and incorporation of breastfeeding counselling in the existing maternal and child heath programme is needed to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of improving child survival. The recent data showed that the prevalence of starting complementary food among infants aged 6-9 months had increased substantially with 76% in the current dataset. However, the adequacy, frequency, and energy density of the complementary food are in question. Remarkable advances have been made in the hospital management of severely-malnourished children. The protocolized management of severe protein-energy malnutrition at the Dhaka hospital of ICDDR,B has reduced the rate of hospital mortality by 50%. A recent study at ICDDR,B has also documented that home-based management of severe protein-energy malnutrition without follow-up was comparable with a hospital-based protocolized management. Although the community nutrition centres of the NNP have been providing food supplementation and performing growth monitoring of children with protein-energy malnutrition, the referral system and management of complicated severely-malnourished children are still not in place.

Dietary Intake and Clinical Response of Hospitalized Patients with Acute Diarrhea

Background

Diarrhea and malnutrition remain major health problems among children of developing countries. During diarrhea, the patient's dietary intake and absorption of nutrients are reduced while nutritional requirements are increased.

Objective

To determine the relationship between food intake and clinical response during the hospital stay of patients with acute diarrhea.

Methods

A hospital-based longitudinal study was conducted in 118 patients with acute diarrhea aged 6 to 59 months who required treatment for at least 3 days in the in-patient ward in Dhaka Hospital of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR, B). Daily food intake was measured and anthropometric measurements were taken to assess nutritional status. Daily stool weight and clinical records were collected. The data were analyzed with SPSS/PC+, version 10, and EPI STAT, version 3.2.2.

Results

The duration of diarrhea was 50% greater in patients with lower energy intake (less than 50% of the recommended dietary allowance [RDA]) than in those with higher energy intake (6 vs. 4 days, p = <.001). Patients with lower energy intake had 22% greater stool output than those with higher energy intake (122.65 vs. 100.37 mL/kg body weight/day, p = .04). Among patients with lower energy intake, the weight-for-age and weight-for-height z-scores (WAZ and WHZ) at discharge from the hospital were higher than those at admission (−3.53±1.25 vs. −3.67±1.31 and 1.95±1.23 vs. −2.14±1.22, respectively; p = .001 for both comparisons), but these scores did not differ at admission and discharge among patients with higher energy intake. The Kaplan–Meier survival function showed that 80% of well-nourished children (WAZ ≥ −2), as compared with 58% of malnourished children (WAZ < −2), recovered by the 4th day of treatment ( p < .01). The length of the recovery period was related negatively with total energy intake ( p = <.001) and mid-upper-arm circumference ( p = .004) and positively with stool weight.

Conclusions

Food intake was reduced in the hospitalized children because of severe illness. Patients with lower energy intake as a percentaqe of RDA had delayed clinical recovery and higher stool output.

Circumstances of post-neonatal deaths in Ceara, Northeast Brazil: mothers' health care-seeking behaviors during their infants' fatal illness

Promotion of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for the treatment of diarrheal diseases and the WHO case management strategy for acute respiratory infections (ARI) have contributed to significant reductions in infant mortality, but these two conditions remain the leading causes of infant deaths in most developing countries. Identification of the factors contributing to these deaths may contribute to reduce infant mortality from preventable causes. To gain insight into the circumstances and maternal and health services factors that may contribute to infant deaths we used a verbal autopsy method to interview mothers of all infants who died during the previous 12 months (June 1995-May 1996) in 11 municipalities in the State of Ceara, Northeast Brazil. Our results revealed that one-third of the deaths occurred in a hospital and two-thirds at home. Almost all the infants who died at home, however, had been examined one or more times by a doctor, and 36% of them had been hospitalized during the disease episode that resulted in death. For most (85%) of these children the causes of death were diarrhea or acute respiratory infection, and it is likely that death could have been averted if appropriate treatment had been initiated promptly. Three major groups of factors that alone or in combination appeared to contribute to most deaths were delays in seeking medical care on behalf of the parents, medical interventions reported as ineffective by mothers and delays in providing medical care to children who arrived at the hospital too late in the day to be scheduled for consultation. Our findings suggest that government efforts to further reduce infant mortality in Ceara should focus on health education interventions that address quality of home care, recognition of signs of severity and danger and importance of seeking timely medical care: and on improving the quality of care provided at community health centers and hospitals. Measures likely to improve infants' chance of survival include: ensuring prompt access to medical consultation for young children brought to health centers or hospitals with potentially life-threatening symptoms related to infections, health education to mothers on the need for continued home care after discharge and to return to the medical care facility if the child does not recover, and that they have access to medicine prescribed by hospital physicians. Further benefits could be obtained by using community health workers, now integrated into the Family Medicine Program (PSF) health teams, to provide health education, supervise home care, refer mothers to health centers and facilitate their access to hospitals.

Early feeding of an energy dense diet during acute shigellosis enhances growth in malnourished children

In a controlled clinical trial, we examined the effect of the short-term feeding of an energy-dense milk cereal formula in malnourished children with clinically severe dysentery due to acute shigellosis. Seventy-five malnourished children, aged 12-48 mo, passing blood or blood with mucous in the stool for < or = 96 h, were offered a hospital diet. In addition, study children (n = 36) were offered a milk-cereal formula with an energy of 5 kJ/g (an 11% protein diet); similarly, control children (n = 39) were offered a milk-cereal formula with an energy content of 2.5 kJ/g (an 11% protein diet). Patients were admitted to the metabolic ward of the Clinical Research and Service Centre, Dhaka, at the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh. Patients were studied for 10 hospital days and were then followed up at home after 30 d. After 10 d of dietary intervention, children in the study group had a significantly greater increase vs. controls in weight-for-age (6 vs. 3%, P < 0.001) and in weight-for-height (7 vs. 3%, P < 0.001). Serum prealbumin concentrations were significantly higher (study vs. control) after 5 d (0.214 vs. 0.170 g/L, P = 0.01) and after 10 d (0.244 vs. 0.193 g/L, P = 0.006) of the study. Greater weight-for-age was sustained at home 1 mo after discharge (8 vs. 5%, P = 0.005) from the hospital. Similarly, higher weight-for-height was sustained 1 mo after discharge (8 vs. 5%, P = 0.01). During their stay at home, there was no dietary intervention. The results of this study suggest that short-term feeding of an energy-dense diet enhances growth in malnourished children with acute dysentery due to shigellosis.

Risk factors for deaths in under-age-five children attending a diarrhoea treatment centre

Few case-control studies have examined possible risk factors for diarrhoeal deaths in under-age-five children in the developing countries. We analysed data from the surveillance system of our diarrhoea treatment centre/hospital for the period 1990-94 on 928 children less than 5 years of age. In univariate analysis, 11 factors were significantly associated with death: lack of breastfeeding, severe malnutrition, complicated diarrhoea, pneumonia, xerophthalmia, duration of diarrhoea 7-14 days, moderate or severe dehydration, recent history of measles, Shigella flexneri infection, maternal illiteracy, and very low household income. Rotavirus diarrhoea was negatively associated with fatal outcome. In the assessment of severe malnutrition, weight-for-height measurement discriminated mortality risk better than weight-for-age or height-for-age indices. Only two factors retained their significance, severe malnutrition and non-breastfeeding in the multivariate analysis with adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 84.2 (9.1, 775.9) and 4.2 (1.3, 13.2) respectively.

Persistent diarrhoea: efficacy of a rice-based diet and role of nutritional status in recovery and nutrient absorption

A diet based on rice powder, soya-bean oil, glucose, egg-white and salts was given to twenty-six patients of different nutritional status aged 4-18 months with persistent diarrhoea and twenty-five age-matched controls without diarrhoea. Clinical response was monitored during 1 week of dietary treatment and absorption of macronutrients was estimated during a 72 h balance study. Twenty-one patients (81%) recovered from diarrhoea within 7 d. There were significant relationships between nutritional indices, recovery, and absorption of total energy, fat and N. The absorption of fat, protein and carbohydrate in the better nourished controls without diarrhoea was significantly higher than in patients with persistent diarrhoea with better nutrition or malnutrition. The duration of diarrhoea was significantly longer in lighter patients (weight-for-age < 65% NCHS (1976) standard), in wasted patients (weight/height < 80% of NCHS) and those with mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) less than 110 mm. There were negative relationships between the period of recovery and the coefficient of absorption of fat (P < 0.001), total energy intake (P < 0.01) and MUAC (P < 0.05). Weight-for-age and MUAC showed most effective discriminative power for absorption of nutrients. However, the coefficients of absorption for carbohydrate were not different for any pair of nutritional groups. Absorption of all nutrients was also correlated negatively with severity of persistent diarrhoea on admission. The results of the present study indicate that a rice-based diet is highly effective in the management of persistent diarrhoea and less malnutrition aggravates nutrient malabsorption, increases duration and severity of diarrhoea and less severely malnourished patients do not absorb nutrients as well as healthy controls. Malnutrition and the initial severity of diarrhoea are significant determinants of clinical prognosis and nutrient absorption in persistent diarrhoea.

Persistent diarrhoea: factors affecting absorption and clinical prognosis during management with a rice-based diet

Twenty-six persistent diarrhoea patients aged 4 to 18 months were treated with a diet prepared with rice powder, soya oil, glucose, egg white and water. Absorption of macronutrients was estimated in a 72 h balance study and clinical response was examined during one week of dietary treatment. Nutrient absorption was compared with that of 25 healthy age-matched controls treated with the same diet. Twenty-one patients (81%) recovered from diarrhoea within seven days. Absorption of nutrients was significantly reduced among the persistent diarrhoea patients. More malnourished patients had a significantly reduced absorption of nutrients except carbohydrate and an increased severity and longer duration of diarrhoea. Total gut transit time had significant association with nutrient absorption in the persistent diarrhoea patients. The period of recovery negatively correlated with coefficient of absorption and positively with initial stool weight. Failure to recover was associated with severity of diarrhoea and systemic infection. The study indicates that nutrient absorption is significantly reduced in patients with persistent diarrhoea and nutritional status, and that initial purging rate and intestinal hurry are significantly related to the prognosis and nutrient absorption.

Waterborne transmission and the evolution of virulence among gastrointestinal bacteria

Diarrhoeal diseases are primary contributors to millions of deaths annually. Yet, little is known about the evolutionary reasons for the differences in virulence among gastrointestinal pathogens. Applying the comparative, cost/benefit approach of evolutionary biology this paper proposes that waterborne transmission should favour evolution towards high virulence. This hypothesis is supported by a cross-specific test, which shows that waterborne transmission is strongly correlated with the virulence of bacterial gastrointestinal pathogens of humans. Alternative explanations of this correlation are not supported by available data. These findings bear on public health policy because they draw attention to a previously unrecognized long-range benefit gained from purification of water supplies; diarrhoeal pathogens may evolve to lower levels of virulence.

Child mortality levels and survival patterns from southern Sudan

Data from a 1985 survey in two major population centres in Southern Sudan, Juba and Wau, were analysed in order to assess childhood mortality levels and the effect of UNICEF's health care programme. There are continuing high levels of childhood mortality. Logistic regression analysis shows significant positive associations between child survival and immunization, oral rehydration therapy and maternal education.