Factors affecting in-hospital heat-related mortality: a multi-city case-crossover analysis

Climate change and disorders of the nervous system

Anthropogenic climate change is affecting people's health, including those with neurological and psychiatric diseases. Currently, making inferences about the effect of climate change on neurological and psychiatric diseases is challenging because of an overall sparsity of data, differing study methods, paucity of detail regarding disease subtypes, little consideration of the effect of individual and population genetics, and widely differing geographical locations with the potential for regional influences. However, evidence suggests that the incidence, prevalence, and severity of many nervous system conditions (eg, stroke, neurological infections, and some mental health disorders) can be affected by climate change. The data show broad and complex adverse effects, especially of temperature extremes to which people are unaccustomed and wide diurnal temperature fluctuations. Protective measures might be possible through local forecasting. Few studies project the future effects of climate change on brain health, hindering policy developments. Robust studies on the threats from changing climate for people who have, or are at risk of developing, disorders of the nervous system are urgently needed.

Association between ambient temperature and genitourinary emergency ambulance dispatches in Japan: A nationwide case-crossover study

Background

Although the effects of temperature on genitourinary morbidity and mortality have been investigated in several countries, it remains largely unexplored in Japan. We investigated the association between ambient temperature and genitourinary emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) in Japan and the modifying roles of sex, age, and illness severity.

Methods

We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study with conditional quasi-Poisson regression to estimate the association between mean temperature and genitourinary EADs in all prefectures of Japan between 2015 and 2019. A mixed-effects meta-analysis was used to pool the association at the country level. Subgroup analyses were performed to explore differences in associations stratified by sex, age, and illness severity.

Results

We found an increased risk of genitourinary EAD associated with higher temperatures. The cumulative relative risk (RR) at the 99th temperature percentile compared with that at the 1st percentile was 1.74 (95% confidence interval (CI) = [1.60, 1.89]). We observed higher heat-related RRs in males (RR = 1.89; 95% CI = [1.73, 2.07]) than females (RR = 1.56; 95% CI = [1.37, 1.76]), and in the younger (RR = 2.13; 95% CI = [1.86, 2.45]) than elderly (RR = 1.39; 95% CI = [1.22, 1.58]). We found a significant association for those with mild or moderate cases (RR = 1.77; 95% CI = [1.62, 1.93]), but not for severe or life-threatening cases (RR = 1.20; 95% CI = [0.80, 1.82]).

Conclusion

Our study revealed heat effects on genitourinary EADs in Japan. Men, youth, and mild-moderate illnesses were particularly vulnerable subgroups. These findings underscore the need for preventative measures aimed at mitigating the impact of temperature on genitourinary emergencies.

Mental illness and increased vulnerability to negative health effects from extreme heat events: a systematic review

RATIONALE

Across countries, extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity because of climate change. Exposure to extreme heat events can have a substantial negative impact on human health, and extant research suggests that individuals with mental illness are particularly vulnerable. To date, there has been no review of evidence regarding this vulnerability to inform response strategies and future research.

OBJECTIVE

A systematic review was undertaken to investigate mental illness as an effect modifier of the relationship between heat exposure and morbidity or mortality.

METHODS

Six databases (Medline, Embase, Global Health, PsychInfo, CINAHL and Scopus) were searched for studies published between the years 2000 to 2022. Twenty-two observational studies that met the inclusion criteria were investigated through narrative synthesis. The RoBANS tool, ROBIS and GRADE were used to assess the certainty of evidence including the risk of bias.

RESULTS

Individuals with mental illness experience worse morbidity and mortality outcomes compared to their counterparts without mental illness in all studies investigating high temperature over a single day. This did not hold for studies examining heatwaves, which reported mixed findings.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

People with diagnosed mental illness should be targeted for policy and service attention during high temperature days. Further research should investigate specific mental illness and adjust for a wider range of confounding factors.

Addressing the challenges in implementing airborne infection control guidelines and embracing the policies

Airborne pathogens not only lead to epidemics and pandemics, but are associated with morbidity and mortality. Administrative or managerial control, environmental control and use of personal protective equipments are the three components in airborne infection control. National and international guidelines for ideal airborne infection control (AIC) practices are available for more than a decade; however the implementation of these need to be looked into, challenges identified and addressed for effective prevention of airborne disease transmission. Commitment of multiple stakeholders from policy makers to patients, budget allocation and adequate fund flow, functioning AIC committees at multiple levels with an inbuilt reporting and monitoring mechanism, adaptation of the AIC practices at various health care levels, supportive supervision, training and ongoing education for health care providers, behaviour change communication to patients to adapt the practices at health care facility level, by health care personnel and patients will facilitate health system preparedness for handling any emergencies, but will also help in reducing the burden of persisting airborne diseases such as tuberculosis. Operational research in this least focused area will also help to identify and address the challenges.

Emergency Department Visits and Summer Temperatures in Bologna, Northern Italy, 2010-2019: A Case-Crossover Study and Geographically Weighted Regression Methods

The aim of the study is to evaluate the association between summer temperatures and emergency department visits (EDVs) in Bologna (Italy) and assess whether this association varies across areas with different socioeconomic and microclimatic characteristics. We included all EDVs within Bologna residences during the summers of 2010-2019. Each subject is attributed a deprivation and a microclimatic discomfort index according to the residence. A time-stratified case-crossover design was conducted to estimate the risk of EDV associated with temperature and the effect modification of deprivation and microclimatic characteristics. In addition, a spatial analysis of data aggregated at the census block level was conducted by applying a Poisson and a geographically weighted Poisson regression model. For each unit increase in temperature above 26 °C, the risk of EDV increases by 0.4% (95%CI: 0.05-0.8). The temperature-EDV relationship is not modified by the microclimatic discomfort index but rather by the deprivation index. The spatial analysis shows that the EDV rate increases with deprivation homogeneously, while it diminishes with increases in median income and microclimatic discomfort, with differences across areas. In conclusion, in Bologna, the EDV risk associated with high temperatures is not very relevant overall, but it tends to increase in areas with a low socioeconomic level.

Ambient temperature and atmospheric pressure at discharge as precipitating factors in immediate adverse events in patients treated for decompensated heart failure

To investigate the relationship of ambient temperature and atmospheric pressure (AP) at patient discharge after an episode of acute heart failure (AHF) with very early post-discharge adverse outcomes. We analyzed 14,656 patients discharged after an AHF episode from 26 hospitals in 16 Spanish cities. The primary outcome was the 7-day post-discharge combined adverse event (emergency department -ED- revisit or hospitalization due to AHF, or all-cause death), and secondary outcomes were these three adverse events considered individually. Associations (adjusted for patient and demographic conditions, and length of stay -LOS- during the AHF index episode) of temperature and AP with the primary and secondary outcomes were investigated. We used restricted cubic splines to model the continuous non-linear association of temperature and AP with each endpoint. Some sensitivity analyses were performed. Patients were discharged after a median LOS of 5 days (IQR = 1-10). The highest temperature at discharge ranged from - 2 to 41.6 °C, and AP was from 892 to 1037 hPa. The 7-day post-discharge combined event occurred in 1242 patients (8.4%), with percentages of 7-day ED-revisit, hospitalization and death of 7.8%, 5.1% and 0.9%, respectively. We found no association between the maximal temperature and AP on the day of discharge and the primary or secondary outcomes. Similarly, there were no significant associations when the analyses were restricted to hospitalized patients (median LOS = 7 days, IQR = 4-11) during the index event, or when lag-1, lag-2 or the mean of the 3 post-discharge days (instead of point estimation) of ambient temperature and AP were considered. Temperature and AP on the day of patient discharge are not independently associated with the risk of very early adverse events during the vulnerable post-discharge period in patients discharged after an AHF episode.

Protective effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on the short-term association between low temperatures and childhood pneumonia hospitalizations: Interrupted time-series and case-crossover analyses in Matlab, Bangladesh

Studies have shown that ambient extreme temperatures (heat and cold) were associated with an increased risk of childhood pneumonia, but the evidence is very limited in low-middle-income countries. It also remains unknown whether pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) could prevent temperature-related childhood pneumonia. This study collected data on ambient temperature and hospitalizations for childhood pneumonia in Matlab, Bangladesh from 2012 to 2016. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was employed to assess the impact of PCV (10-valent) intervention on childhood pneumonia hospitalizations. A time-stratified case-crossover analysis with a conditional logistic regression was performed to examine the association of childhood pneumonia hospitalizations with extreme temperatures and heatwaves before and after PCV10 intervention. Subgroup analyses were conducted to explore the modification effects of seasons, age, gender, and socioeconomic levels on temperature-related childhood pneumonia hospitalizations. We found that after PCV10 intervention, there was a sharp decrease in hospitalizations for childhood pneumonia (relative risk (RR): 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.43-0.83). During the study period, heat effects on childhood pneumonia appeared immediately on the current day (odds ratio (OR): 1.28; 95% CI: 1.02-1.60, lag 0), while cold effects appeared 4 weeks later (OR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.06-2.22, lag 28). Importantly, cold effects decreased significantly after PCV10 (p-value＜0.05), but heat and heatwave effects increased after PCV10 (p-value＜0.05). Particularly, children from families with a middle or low socioeconomic level, boys, and infants were more susceptible to heat-related pneumonia. This study suggests that PCV10 intervention in Bangladesh may help decrease cold-related not heat-related childhood pneumonia.

Heat-Related Mortality in Two Regions of Poland: Focus on Urban and Rural Areas during the Most Severe and Long-Lasting Heatwaves

The vast majority of studies on heat-related mortality are focused on large cities. The aim of this study is to fill this research gap and to estimate the impact of high temperatures on the risk of death in smaller towns and villages. The results show that increased mortality is not only a problem in large cities. The risk of death, although usually slightly lower than in highly populated areas, may be higher for the age-related risk group. At temperatures above 35 °C, it may exceed 1.3 in smaller towns and even 1.6 in villages. The increase in mortality during five selected heat waves of high intensity and long duration was also studied for two regions of Poland: Małopolska and Wielkopolska. Towns with a population of less than 10,000 in Małopolska region, during the 2006 heatwave, experienced an increase in the number of deaths by as much as 18%. At the same time in the largest city of Małopolska-Kraków, the death toll rose by 4%. This paper also presents some differences between regions in terms of the impact of heat waves: in the lowland region of Wielkopolska, the mortality rate is generally higher than in the upland region of Małopolska.

Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

Although previous evidence suggests that the infection fatality rate from COVID-19 varies by age and sex, and that transmission intensity varies geographically within countries, no study has yet explored the age-sex-space distribution of excess mortality associated with the COVID pandemic. By applying the principles of small-area estimation to existing model formulations for excess mortality, this study develops a novel method for assessing excess mortality across small populations and assesses the pattern of COVID excess mortality by province, year, week, age group, and sex in Italy from March through May 2020. We estimate that 53,200 excess deaths occurred across Italy during this time period, compared to just 35,500 deaths where COVID-19 was registered as the underlying cause of death. Out of the total excess mortality burden, 97% of excess deaths occurred among adults over age 60, and 68% of excess deaths were concentrated among adults over age 80. The burden of excess mortality was unevenly distributed across the country, with just three of Italy’s 107 provinces accounting for 32% of all excess mortality. This method for estimating excess mortality can be adapted to other countries where COVID-19 diagnostic capacity is still insufficient, and could be incorporated into public health rapid response systems.

Climate change, trauma and mental health in Italy: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Climate change is having significant impacts on health and mental health across Europe and globally. Such effects are likely to be more severe in climate change hotspots such as the Mediterranean region, including Italy.

OBJECTIVE

To review existing literature on the relationship between climate change and mental health in Italy, with a particular focus on trauma and PTSD.

METHODS

A scoping review methodology was used. We followed guidance for scoping reviews and the PRISMA Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist. We searched for literature in MEDLINE, Global Health, Embase and PsycINFO. Following screening, data was extracted from individual papers and a quality assessment was conducted. Given the heterogeneity of studies, findings were summarized narratively.

RESULTS

We identified 21 original research articles investigating the relationship between climate change and mental health in Italy. Climate change stressors (heat and heatwaves in particular) were found to have several negative effects on various mental health outcomes, such as a higher risk of mortality among people with mental health conditions, suicide and suicidal behaviour and psychiatric morbidity (e.g. psychiatric hospitalization and symptoms of mental health conditions). However, there is little research on the relationship between climate change and trauma or PTSD in the Italian context.

CONCLUSIONS

More attention and resources should be directed towards understanding the mental health implications of climate change to prevent, promote, and respond to the mental health needs of Italy and the wider Mediterranean region.

HIGHLIGHTS

• Climate change stressors in Italy were found to have detrimental impacts on various mental health outcomes, such as psychiatric mortality and morbidity. • Little research on the relationship between climate change stressors and PTSD exists in Italy.

Hot weather as a risk factor for kidney disease outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological evidence

BACKGROUND

The occurrence or exacerbation of kidney disease has been documented as a growing problem associated with hot weather. The implementation of effective prevention measures requires a better understanding of the risk factors that increase susceptibility. To fill gaps in knowledge, this study reviews the current literature on the effects of heat on kidney-disease outcomes (ICD-10 N00-N39), including morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

Databases were systematically searched for relevant literature published between 1990 and 2020 and the quality of evidence evaluated. We performed random effects meta-analysis to calculate the pooled relative risks (RRs) of the association between high temperatures (and heatwaves) and kidney disease outcomes. We further evaluated vulnerability concerning contextual population characteristics.

RESULTS

Of 2739 studies identified, 91 were reviewed and 82 of these studies met the criteria for inclusion in a meta-analysis. Findings showed that with a 1 °C increase in temperature, the risk of kidney-related morbidity increased by 1% (RR 1.010; 95% CI: 1.009-1.011), with the greatest risk for urolithiasis. Heatwaves were also associated with increased morbidity with a trend observed with heatwave intensity. During low-intensity heatwaves, there was an increase of 5.9% in morbidity, while during high-intensity heatwaves there was a 7.7% increase. There were greater RRs for males, people aged ≤64 years, and those living in temperate climate zones. Similarly, for every 1 °C temperature increase, there was a 3% (RR 1.031; 95% CI: 1.018-1.045) increase in the risk of kidney-related mortality, which also increased during heatwaves.

CONCLUSIONS

High temperatures (and heatwaves) are associated with an elevated risk of kidney disease outcomes, particularly urolithiasis. Preventive measures that may minimize risks in vulnerable individuals during hot spells are discussed.

Approaches for identifying heat-vulnerable populations and locations: A systematic review

Heat related morbidity and mortality, especially during extreme heat events, are increasing due to climate change. More Americans die from heat than from all other natural disasters combined. Identifying the populations and locations that are under high risk of heat vulnerability is important for urban planning and design policy making as well as health interventions. An increasing number of heat vulnerability/risk models and indices (HV/R) have been developed based on indicators related to population heat susceptibility such as sociodemographic and environmental factors. The objectives of this study are to summarize and analyze current HV/R's construction, calculation, and validation, evaluate the limitation of these methods, and provide directions for future HV/R and related studies. This systematic review used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) framework and used 5 datasets for the literature search. Journal articles that developed indices or models to assess population level heat-related vulnerability or risks in the past 50 years were included. A total of 52 papers were included for analysis on model construction, data sources, weighting schemes and model validation. By synthesizing the findings, we suggested: (1) include relevant and accurately measured indicators; (2) select rational weighting methods and; (3) conduct model validation. We also concluded that it is important for future heat vulnerability models and indices studies to: (1) be conducted in more tropical areas; (2) include a comprehensive understanding of energy exchanges between landscape elements and humans; and (3) be applied in urban planning and policy making practice.

Mortality risk related to heatwaves in Finland - Factors affecting vulnerability

BACKGROUND

Heatwaves are known to increase mortality. However, there is a need for more quantitative information on factors affecting sensitivity to the adverse health effects, particularly in countries with cool summer temperatures.

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated mortality risk related to heatwave days in Finland. Risk was examined by age, sex, cause of death, and place of death, including health and social care facilities and homes. Mortality was also analysed for different patient subgroups in healthcare facilities.

METHODS

Heatwaves were defined as periods when the daily average temperature exceeded the 90th percentile of that from May to August in 2000-2014 for ≥4 days. In addition to all heatwave days, risk was analysed for short (4-5 days) and long (≥10 days) heatwaves. Mortality analyses were based on linking registry data on i) daily non-accidental and cause-specific mortality and ii) admissions to a health or social care facility. Statistical analyses were conducted using generalised estimating equations for longitudinal data analysis, assuming a Poisson distribution for the daily mortality count.

RESULTS

During all heatwave days, mortality increased among those aged 65-74 years (6.7%, 95% confidence interval 2.9-10.8%) and ≥75 years (12.8%, 95% CI 9.8-15.9%). Mortality increased in both sexes, but the risk was higher in women. Positive associations were observed for deaths due to respiratory diseases, renal diseases, mental and behavioural disorders, diseases of the nervous system, and cardiovascular diseases. Overall, effects were stronger for long than short heatwaves. During all heatwave days, mortality increased in healthcare facilities in outpatients (26.9%, 95% CI 17.3-37.2%) and inpatients. Among inpatients, the risk was higher in long-term inpatients (stay in ward > 30 days, 13.1%, 95% CI 8.6-17.7%) than others (5.8%, 95% CI 2.7-9.0%). At homes, mortality increased by 8.1% (95% CI 1.9-14.6%). Elevated risk estimates were also detected for social care facilities.

CONCLUSIONS

In Finland, a cold-climate Northern country, heatwaves increase mortality risk significantly among the elderly. Women are more susceptible than men, and many chronic diseases are important risk factors. To reduce heatwave-related deaths, preparedness should be improved particularly in hospital and healthcare centre wards, where the most vulnerable are long-term inpatients. However, measures are also needed to protect the elderly at home and in social care facilities, especially during prolonged hot periods.

Global warming and neurological practice: systematic review

Background

Climate change, including global warming, will cause poorer global health and rising numbers of environmental refugees. As neurological disorders account for a major share of morbidity and mortality worldwide, global warming is also destined to alter neurological practice; however, to what extent and by which mechanisms is unknown. We aimed to collect information about the effects of ambient temperatures and human migration on the epidemiology and clinical manifestations of neurological disorders.

Methods

We searched PubMed and Scopus from 01/2000 to 12/2020 for human studies addressing the influence of ambient temperatures and human migration on Alzheimer’s and non-Alzheimer’s dementia, epilepsy, headache/migraine, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s disease, stroke, and tick-borne encephalitis (a model disease for neuroinfections). The protocol was pre-registered with PROSPERO (2020 CRD42020147543).

Results

Ninety-three studies met inclusion criteria, 84 of which reported on ambient temperatures and nine on migration. Overall, most temperature studies suggested a relationship between increasing temperatures and higher mortality and/or morbidity, whereas results were more ambiguous for migration studies. However, we were unable to identify a single adequately designed study addressing how global warming and human migration will change neurological practice. Still, extracted data indicated multiple ways by which these aspects might alter neurological morbidity and mortality soon.

Conclusion

Significant heterogeneity exists across studies with respect to methodology, outcome measures, confounders and study design, including lack of data from low-income countries, but the evidence so far suggests that climate change will affect the practice of all major neurological disorders in the near future. Adequately designed studies to address this issue are urgently needed, requiring concerted efforts from the entire neurological community.

Particulate matter exposure is highly correlated to pediatric asthma exacerbation

Asthma is a heterogeneous disease in which environmental factors play an important role, and the effect of particulate matter (PM) on the occurrence and severity of asthma is drawing more attention. This study aims to identify the correlation between PM and pediatric asthma exacerbation and explore the potential mechanisms. The asthma visits data (N = 16,779,739) in a university-based tertiary children’s hospital from January 2013 to December 2017 were collected, and the relationship between asthma visits and local PM concentration was analyzed. For further study, we established a house dust mite (HDM)-induced allergic airway inflammation model with PM intervention. We detected a correlation between PM concentration and pediatric asthma visits, especially in children under 6 years old. The in vivo data showed that PM aggravated HDM-induced airway inflammation, and IL-33 neutralizing antibody exerted a protective role. Our study suggests that PM is a risk factor in promoting pediatric asthma exacerbation, in which IL-33 might be a promising target.

Combined Effect of Hot Weather and Outdoor Air Pollution on Respiratory Health: Literature Review

Association between short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and respiratory health is well documented. At the same time, it is widely known that extreme weather events intrinsically exacerbate air pollution impact. Particularly, hot weather and extreme temperatures during heat waves (HW) significantly affect human health, increasing risks of respiratory mortality and morbidity. Concurrently, a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures can be combined with weather–air pollution interaction during wildfires. The purpose of the current review is to summarize literature on interplay of hot weather, air pollution, and respiratory health consequences worldwide, with the ultimate goal of identifying the most dangerous pollution agents and vulnerable population groups. A literature search was conducted using electronic databases Web of Science, Pubmed, Science Direct, and Scopus, focusing only on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from 2000 to 2021. The main findings demonstrate that the increased level of PM10 and O3 results in significantly higher rates of respiratory and cardiopulmonary mortality. Increments in PM2.5 and PM10, O3, CO, and NO2 concentrations during high temperature episodes are dramatically associated with higher admissions to hospital in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, daily hospital emergency transports for asthma, acute and chronic bronchitis, and premature mortality caused by respiratory disease. Excessive respiratory health risk is more pronounced in elderly cohorts and small children. Both heat waves and outdoor air pollution are synergistically linked and are expected to be more serious in the future due to greater climate instability, being a crucial threat to global public health that requires the responsible involvement of researchers at all levels. Sustainable urban planning and smart city design could significantly reduce both urban heat islands effect and air pollution.

A Qualitative Study on Concerns, Needs, and Expectations of Hospital Patients Related to Climate Change: Arguments for a Patient-Centered Adaptation

This study explores the concerns, needs, and expectations of inpatients with the goal to develop a patient-centered climate change adaptation agenda for hospitals. Statements of patients from geriatrics, internal medicine, psychiatry, and surgery (N = 25) of a German tertiary care hospital were analyzed using semi-structured interviews and the framework method. Areas of future adaptation were elaborated in joint discussions with transdisciplinary experts. Concerns included the foresight of severe health problems. The requested adaptations comprised the change to a patient-centered care, infrastructural improvements including air conditioning, and adjustments of the workflows. Guidelines for the behavior of patients and medical services appropriate for the climatic conditions were demanded. The patient-centered agenda for adaptation includes the steps of partnering with patients, reinforcing heat mitigation, better education for patients and medical staff, and adjusting work processes. This is the first study demonstrating that hospital patients are gravely concerned and expect adjustments according to climate change. Since heat is seen as a major risk by interviewees, the fast implementation of published recommendations is crucial. By synthesizing inpatients’ expectations with scientific recommendations, we encourage patient-centered climate change adaptation. This can be the start for further collaboration with patients to create climate change resilient hospitals.

Do carbon emissions impact the health of residents? Considering China's industrialization and urbanization

Industrialization and urbanization have aggravated the contradiction between environmental protection and economic growth, leading to health issues. While there are considerable interests in understanding the health effects of carbon emissions in the context of climate change, little is observed at regional scale and by econometric methods. Applying regression analysis on 2002-2017 Chinese provincial-level panel data, this study explores the intermediary mechanisms and regional differences of carbon emissions on residents' health. The results indicate that: (1) Carbon emissions have a long-term adverse impact on residents' health-a 1% rise in carbon emission adds 0.298% more outpatients and 0.162% more inpatients; (2) The rise in carbon emissions impairs residents' health mainly by raising the temperature; (3) In areas with high levels of industrialization and urbanization, increased carbon emissions bring greater health risks; and (4) In terms of China's unique "leading industrialization and lagging urbanization" situation, only by upgrading industrial structure, improving urbanization quality, and promoting coordinated industrialization and urbanization can the harm of carbon emissions to residents' health be reduced. Therefore, the "one-size-fits-all" policy model is not suitable for China's current situation. To address global "climate change" issues, China must act according to local conditions by applying mitigating (adaptive) measures in economically developed (less developed) regions. Simultaneously, the authorities must focus on the interaction and synergy between industrialization and urbanization.

Update on Climate Change: Its Impact on Respiratory Health at Work, Home, and at Play

Climate change is a crisis of vast proportions that has serious implications for pulmonary health. Increasing global temperatures influence respiratory health through extreme weather events, wildfires, prolonged allergy seasons, and worsening air pollution. Children, elderly patients, and patients with underlying lung disease are at elevated risk of complications from these effects of climate change. This paper summarizes the myriad ways in which climate change affects the respiratory health of patients at home and in outdoor environments and outlines measures for patients to protect themselves.

Association Between Work-Related Hyperthermia Emergency Department Visits and Ambient Heat in Five Southeastern States, 2010-2012-A Case-Crossover Study

The objective of this study is to assess ambient temperatures' and extreme heat events' contribution to work-related emergency department (ED) visits for hyperthermia in the southeastern United States to inform prevention. Through a collaborative network and established data framework, work-related ED hyperthermia visits in five participating southeastern U.S. states were analyzed using a time stratified case-crossover design. For exposure metrics, day- and location-specific measures of ambient temperatures and county-specific identification of extreme heat events were used. From 2010 to 2012, 5,017 work-related hyperthermia ED visits were seen; 2,298 (~46%) of these visits occurred on days when the daily maximum heat index was at temperatures the Occupational Safety and Health Administration designates as having "lower" or "moderate" heat risk. A 14% increase in risk of ED visit was seen for a 1°F increase in average daily mean temperature, modeled as linear predictor across all temperatures. A 54% increase in risk was seen for work-related hyperthermia ED visits during extreme heat events (two or more consecutive days of unusually high temperatures) when controlling for average daily mean temperature. Despite ambient heat being a well-known risk to workers' health, this study's findings indicate ambient heat contributed to work-related ED hyperthermia visits in these five states. Used alone, existing OSHA heat-risk levels for ambient temperatures did not appear to successfully communicate workers' risk for hyperthermia in this study. Findings should inform future heat-alert communications and policies, heat prevention efforts, and heat-illness prevention research for workers in the southeastern United States.

At which temperature do the deleterious effects of ambient heat "kick-in" to affect all-cause mortality? An exploration of this threshold from an eastern Indian city

Despite experiencing hot weathers, limited studies from India explored relationships between ambient heat and health. We studied associations between heat and all-cause mortality to estimate heat threshold(s) affecting health, and examine other affecting dimensions. We conducted time-series analysis with daily maximum temperature and all-cause mortality data of Bhubaneswar city (March-July, 2007-2017), and explored their interactions. Mortality risks rose when daily maximum temperatures were >36.2°C (lower threshold), and even more when >40.5°C (upper threshold). Every degree above36.2°C increased the mortality risk by 2% (mortality rate ratio: 1.02; 95% CI 1.01, 1.03). The effects of maximum temperature increased on days when minimum temperatures were >25.6°C (median). The effect of heat was immediate and lasted for 0-1 day with no lagged effect. Two temperature thresholds with varying mortality risks provided an opportunity for a graded heat warning system. The accentuation of the deleterious effects of heat by the higher minimum temperature calls for its inclusion in the heat warning system in future.

Impact of extreme temperatures on ambulance dispatches in London, UK

BACKGROUND

Associations between extreme temperatures and health outcomes, such as mortality and morbidity, are often observed. However, relatively little research has investigated the role of extreme temperatures upon ambulance dispatches.

METHODS

A time series analysis using London Ambulance Service (LAS) incident data (2010-2014), consisting of 5,252,375 dispatches was conducted. A generalized linear model (GLM) with a quasi-likelihood Poisson regression was applied to analyse the associations between ambulance dispatches and temperature. The 99^th (22.8°C) and 1^st (0.0°C) percentiles of temperature were defined as extreme high and low temperature. Fourteen categories of ambulance dispatches were investigated, grouped into 'respiratory' (asthma, dyspnoea, respiratory chest infection, respiratory arrest and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), 'cardiovascular' (cardiac arrest, chest pain, cardiac chest pain RCI, cardiac arrhythmia and other cardiac problems) and 'other' non-cardiorespiratory (dizzy, alcohol related, vomiting and 'generally unwell') categories. The effects of long-term trends, seasonality, day of the week, public holidays and air pollution were controlled for in the GLM. The lag effect of temperature was also investigated. The threshold temperatures for each category were identified and a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was reported using relative risk (RR) values at 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Many dispatch categories show significant associations with extreme temperature. Total calls from 999 dispatches and 'generally unwell' dispatch category show significant RRs at both low and high temperatures. Most respiratory categories (asthma, dyspnoea and RCI) have significant RRs at low temperatures represented by with estimated RRs ranging from 1.392 (95%CI: 1.161-1.699) for asthma to 2.075 (95%CI: 1.673-2.574) for RCI. The RRs for all other non-cardiorespiratory dispatches were often significant for high temperatures ranging from 1.280 (95% CI: 1.128-1.454) for 'generally unwell' to 1.985 (95%CI: 1.422-2.773) for alcohol-related. For the cardiovascular group, only chest pain dispatches reported a significant RR at high temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS

Ambulance dispatches can be associated with extreme temperatures, dependent on the dispatch category. It is recommended that meteorological factors are factored into ambulance forecast models and warning systems, allowing for improvements in ambulance and general health service efficiency.

Perceptions of Health Risks from Hot Weather, and Coping Behaviors among Ethnic Minority Groups in Mountain Areas of China: A Case Study in the Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture

Limited research focuses on risk perceptions of hot weather among ethnic minority groups in remote mountain areas of China. Adopting a multi-stage sampling method, this study received completed questionnaires from 643 participates in Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture of China in 2017 and 2018. We used multivariate logistic regression models to explore the factors affecting risk perceptions and coping behaviors with regards to hot weather. Results showed that despite a relatively high level of risk perception, the study population in the mountain areas of China had a very low level of preparedness in responding to the risks from heat, and a lack of professional health knowledge in general. In particular, 61.3% (95% CI: 57.1%−5.6%) of the participants felt increasing temperatures in recent years, 73.2% (95% CI: 69.3%−7.0%) thought extreme high temperatures would be a health threat, and 61.3% (95% CI: 57.1%−5.4%) reported physical discomfort during hot weather. However, only 12% (95% CI: 9.5%−4.5%) had the information or knowledge to stay healthy during the extreme high temperatures, and only 24.2% had (95% CI: 20.8%−7.6%) preparation. The logistic regression models suggested that ethnic group, health status, marital status, gender, and employment could affect their perceptions, which could significantly affect the adoption of coping behaviors. In conclusion, our findings have significant implications for developing policies and health education and promotion programs for ethnic minorities in remote regions to maintain good health during hot weather.

Outpatient clinic visits during heat waves: findings from a large family medicine clinical database

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this study was to determine whether heat waves are associated with increased frequency of clinic visits for ICD-9 codes of illnesses traditionally associated with heat waves.

METHODS

During 4 years of family medicine clinic data between 2012 and 2016, we identified six heat wave events in San Diego County. For each heat wave event, we selected a control period in the same season that was twice as long. Scheduling a visit on a heat wave day (versus a non-heat wave day) was the primary predictor, and receiving a primary ICD-9 disease code related to heat waves was the outcome. Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, race/ethnicity and marital status.

RESULTS

Of the 5448 visits across the heat wave and control periods, 6.4% of visits (n = 346) were for heat wave-related diagnoses. Scheduling a visit on heat wave day was not associated with receiving a heat wave-related ICD code as compared with the control period (adjusted odds ratio: 1.35; 95% confidence interval: 0.86-1.36; P = 0.51).

DISCUSSION

We show that in a relatively large and demographically diverse population, patients who schedule appointments during heat waves are not being more frequently seen for diagnoses typically associated with heat waves in the acute setting. Given that heat waves are increasing in frequency due to climate change, there is an opportunity to increase utilization of primary care clinics during heat waves.

Characterizing prolonged heat effects on mortality in a sub-tropical high-density city, Hong Kong

Extreme hot weather events are likely to increase under future climate change, and it is exacerbated in urban areas due to the complex urban settings. It causes excess mortality due to prolonged exposure to such extreme heat. However, there is lack of universal definition of prolonged heat or heat wave, which leads to inadequacies of associated risk preparedness. Previous studies focused on estimating temperature-mortality relationship based on temperature thresholds for assessing heat-related health risks but only several studies investigated the association between types of prolonged heat and excess mortality. However, most studies focused on one or a few isolated heat waves, which cannot demonstrate typical scenarios that population has experienced. In addition, there are limited studies on the difference between daytime and nighttime temperature, resulting in insufficiency to conclude the effect of prolonged heat. In sub-tropical high-density cities where prolonged heat is common in summer, it is important to obtain a comprehensive understanding of prolonged heat for a complete assessment of heat-related health risks. In this study, six types of prolonged heat were examined by using a time-stratified analysis. We found that more consecutive hot nights contribute to higher mortality risk while the number of consecutive hot days does not have significant association with excess mortality. For a day after five consecutive hot nights, there were 7.99% [7.64%, 8.35%], 7.74% [6.93%, 8.55%], and 8.14% [7.38%, 8.88%] increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Non-consecutive hot days or nights are also found to contribute to short-term mortality risk. For a 7-day-period with at least five non-consecutive hot days and nights, there was 15.61% [14.52%, 16.70%] increase in all-cause mortality at lag 0-1, but only -2.00% [-2.83%, -1.17%] at lag 2-3. Differences in the temperature-mortality relationship caused by hot days and hot nights imply the need to categorize prolonged heat for public health surveillance. Findings also contribute to potential improvement to existing heat-health warning system.

Perception of climate change in patients with chronic lung disease

BACKGROUND

Climate change affects human health. The respective consequences are predicted to increase in the future. Patients with chronic lung disease are particularly vulnerable to the involved environmental alterations. However, their subjective perception and reactions to these alterations remain unknown.

METHODS

In this pilot study, we surveyed 172 adult patients who underwent pulmonary rehabilitation and 832 adult tourists without lung disease in the alpine region about their perception of being affected by climate change and their potential reaction to specific consequences. The patients' survey also contained the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) to rate the severity of symptoms.

RESULTS

Most of the patients stated asthma (73.8%), COPD (9.3%) or both (11.0%) as underlying disease while 5.8% suffered from other chronic lung diseases. Patients and tourists feel equally affected by current climate change in general, while allergic subjects in both groups feel significantly more affected (p = 0.04). The severity of symptoms assessed by CAT correlates with the degree of feeling affected (p<0.01). The main disturbing consequences for patients are decreased air quality, increasing numbers of ticks and mosquitos and a rising risk for allergy and extreme weather events such as thunderstroms, while tourists are less disturbed by these factors. Increasing number of heat-days is of little concern to both groups.

CONCLUSION

Overall patients are more sensitive to health-related consequences of climate change. Yet, the hazard of heat-days seems underestimated and awareness should be raised.

Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate-Magnitude and Determinants

The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge.

Impact of heat waves on nonaccidental deaths in Jinan, China, and associated risk factors

An ecological study and a case-crossover analysis were conducted to evaluate the impact of heat waves on nonaccidental deaths, and to identify contributing factors of population vulnerability to heat-related deaths in Jinan, China. Daily death data and meteorological data were collected for summer months (June to August) of 2012-2013. Excess mortality was calculated and multivariate linear regression models were used to assess the increased risk of heat waves on deaths. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were performed to estimate the odd ratios (ORs) of risk factors and their 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). Overall, heat waves were related to 24.88 % excess deaths of total nonaccidental deaths and 31.33 % excess deaths of circulatory diseases, with an OR of 16.07 (95 % CI 8.80-23.33) for total nonaccidental deaths and 12.46 (95 % CI 7.39-17.53) for deaths of circulatory diseases. The case-crossover analysis indicated that older people were more likely to die during heat waves (OR = 1.233, 95 % CI 1.076-1.413) and more deaths occurred outside a hospital during heat waves (OR = 1.142, 95 % CI 1.006-1.296). In conclusion, heat waves have caused excess deaths and significantly increased the risk of circulatory deaths. The risk factors identified in our study have implications for public health interventions to reduce heat-related mortality during extreme heat events.

Review Article: Vulnerability to Heat-related Mortality: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Meta-regression Analysis

BACKGROUND

Addressing vulnerability to heat-related mortality is a necessary step in the development of policies dictated by heat action plans. We aimed to provide a systematic assessment of the epidemiologic evidence regarding vulnerability to heat-related mortality.

METHODS

Studies assessing the association between high ambient temperature or heat waves and mortality among different subgroups and published between January 1980 and August 2014 were selected. Estimates of association for all the included subgroups were extracted. We assessed the presence of heterogeneous effects between subgroups conducting Cochran Q tests. We conducted random effect meta-analyses of ratios of relative risks (RRR) for high ambient temperature studies. We performed random effects meta-regression analyses to investigate factors associated with the magnitude of the RRR.

RESULTS

Sixty-one studies were included. Using the Cochran Q test, we consistently found evidence of vulnerability for the elderly ages >85 years. We found a pooled RRR of 0.99 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.97, 1.01) for male sex, 1.02 (95% CI = 1.01, 1.03) for age >65 years, 1.04 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.07) for ages >75 years, 1.03 (95% CI = 1.01, 1.05) for low individual socioeconomic status (SES), and 1.01 (95% CI = 0.99, 1.02) for low ecologic SES.

CONCLUSIONS

We found strongest evidence of heat-related vulnerability for the elderly ages >65 and >75 years and low SES groups (at the individual level). Studies are needed to clarify if other subgroups (e.g., children, people living alone) are also vulnerable to heat to inform public health programs.

Temperature deviation index and elderly mortality in Japan

Few studies have examined how the precedence of abnormal temperatures in previous neighboring years affects the population's health. In the present study, we attempted to quantify the health effects of abnormal weather patterns by creating a metric called the temperature deviation index (TDI) and estimated the effects of TDI on mortality in Japan. We used data from 47 prefectures in Japan to compute the TDI on days between May and September from 1966 to 2010. The TDI is a summed product of an indicator of absence of high temperatures in the neighboring years, and more weights were assigned to the years closest to the current year. To estimate the TDI effects on elderly mortality, we used generalized linear modeling with a Poisson distribution after adjusting for apparent temperature, barometric pressure, day of the week, and time trend. For each prefecture, we estimated the TDI effects and pooled the estimates to yield a national average for 1991-2010 in Japan. The estimated effects of TDI in middle- or high-latitude prefectures were greater than in low-latitude prefectures. The estimated national average of TDI effects was a 0.5 % (95 % confidence intervals [CI], 0.1, 1.0) increase in elderly mortality per 1-unit (around 1 standard deviation) increase in the TDI. The significant pooled estimation of TDI effects was mainly due to the TDI effects on summer days with moderate temperature (25th-49th percentile, mean temperature 22.9 °C): a 1.9 % (95 % CI, 1.1, 2.6) increase in elderly mortality per 1-unit increase in the TDI. However, TDI effects were insignificant in other temperature ranges. These findings suggest that elderly deaths increased on moderate temperature days in the summer that differed substantially from days during that time window in the neighboring years. Therefore, not only high temperature itself but also temperature deviation compared to previous years could be considered to be a risk factor for elderly mortality in the summer.

Climate Change and Air Pollution: Effects on Respiratory Allergy

A body of evidence suggests that major changes involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by anthropogenic factors, have impact on the biosphere and human environment. Studies on the effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between allergic respiratory diseases, asthma and environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, airborne allergens, and air pollution. Urbanization with its high levels of vehicle emissions, and a westernized lifestyle are linked to the rising frequency of respiratory allergic diseases and bronchial asthma observed over recent decades in most industrialized countries. However, it is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate changes and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in the general population and on the timing of asthma exacerbations, although the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity could also be an effect of air pollution and climate change. Since airborne allergens and air pollutants are frequently increased contemporaneously in the atmosphere, an enhanced IgE-mediated response to aeroallergens and enhanced airway inflammation could account for the increasing frequency of respiratory allergy and asthma in atopic subjects in the last 5 decades. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the relationship between air pollution and respiratory allergic diseases, such as rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions, and westernized lifestyle are correlated with an increased frequency of respiratory allergy prevalently in people who live in urban areas in comparison with people living in rural areas. Climatic factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, thunderstorms, etc.) can affect both components (biological and chemical) of this interaction.

County-level heat vulnerability of urban and rural residents in Tibet, China

BACKGROUND

Tibet is especially vulnerable to climate change due to the relatively rapid rise of temperature over past decades. The effects on mortality and morbidity of extreme heat in Tibet have been examined in previous studies; no heat adaptation initiatives have yet been implemented. We estimated heat vulnerability of urban and rural populations in 73 Tibetan counties and identified potential areas for public health intervention and further research.

METHODS

According to data availability and vulnerability factors identified previously in Tibet and elsewhere, we selected 10 variables related to advanced age, low income, illiteracy, physical and mental disability, small living spaces and living alone. We separately created and mapped county-level cumulative heat vulnerability indices for urban and rural residents by summing up factor scores produced by a principal components analysis (PCA).

RESULTS

For both study populations, PCA yielded four factors with similar structure. The components for rural and urban residents explained 76.5 % and 77.7 % respectively of the variability in the original vulnerability variables. We found spatial variability of heat vulnerability across counties, with generally higher vulnerability in high-altitude counties. Although we observed similar median values and ranges of the cumulative heat vulnerability index values among urban and rural residents overall, the pattern varied strongly from one county to another.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a measure of population vulnerability to high temperatures in Tibet. These are preliminary findings, but they may assist targeted adaptation plans in response to future rapid warming in Tibet.

Assessment of the effect of cold and hot temperatures on mortality in Ontario, Canada: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Ambient high temperature is associated with death; however, heat-related risk of death has not been quantified systematically in Ontario, the most populous province in Canada. Less is known about cold-related risk in this population. Our objective was to quantify the health impact from cold and hot temperatures in Ontario.

METHODS

The study population consisted of all residents of Ontario who died between Jan. 1, 1996, and Dec. 31, 2010, from any nonaccidental cause. A case-crossover analysis was applied to assess the relation between daily temperature fluctuation and deaths from nonaccidental and selected causes in cold (December-February) and warm (June-August) seasons, respectively, adjusting for various potential confounders. Risk estimates were obtained for each census division, then pooled across Ontario. We examined potential effect modification for selected comorbidities and sociodemographic characteristics.

RESULTS

In warm seasons, each 5°C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 2.5% increase in nonaccidental deaths (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3% to 3.8%) on the day of exposure (lag 0). In cold seasons, each 5°C decrease in daily temperature was associated with a 3.0% (95% CI 1.8% to 4.2%) increase in nonaccidental deaths, which persisted over 7 days (lag 0-6). The cold-related effects (lag 0-6) were stronger for cardiovascular-related deaths (any cardiovascular death: 4.1%, 95% CI 2.3% to 5.9%; ischemic heart disease: 5.8%, 95% CI 3.6% to 8.1%), especially among people less than 65 years of age (8.0%, 95% CI 3.0% to 13.0%). Conversely, heat most strongly increased respiratory-related deaths during admission to hospital (26.0%, 95% CI 0% to 61.4%). Across Ontario, each 5°C change in daily temperature was estimated to induce 7 excess deaths per day in cold seasons and 4 excess deaths in warm seasons.

INTERPRETATION

Heat contributed to excess deaths in Ontario, although the effect of cold weather appeared to be greater. Further work is required to better define high-risk subgroups, which might include the homeless and people with inadequately heated housing.

Effects on asthma and respiratory allergy of Climate change and air pollution

The major changes to our world are those involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by anthropogenic factors, with impact on the biosphere and human environment. Studies on the effects of climate changes on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between allergic respiratory diseases, asthma and environmental factors, like meteorological variables, airborne allergens and air pollution. Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions and westernized lifestyle are correlated with an increased frequency of respiratory allergy, mainly in people who live in urban areas in comparison with people living in rural areas. However, it is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate changes and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in general and on the timing of asthma exacerbations, although the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity could be also considered an effect of air pollution and climate changes. Since airborne allergens and air pollutants are frequently increased contemporaneously in the atmosphere, enhanced IgE-mediated response to aeroallergens and enhanced airway inflammation could account for the increasing frequency of respiratory allergy and asthma in atopic subjects in the last five decades. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the interrelationship between air pollution and respiratory allergic diseases such as rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Climatic factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, thunderstorms, etc) can affect both components (biological and chemical) of this interaction. Scientific societies should be involved in advocacy activities, such as those realized by the Global Alliance against chronic Respiratory Diseases (GARD).

Ambient temperature enhanced acute cardiovascular-respiratory mortality effects of PM2.5 in Beijing, China

Studies have shown that temperature could modify the effect of ambient fine particles on mortality risk. In assessing air pollution effects, temperature is usually considered as a confounder. However, ambient temperature can alter people's physiological response to air pollution and might "modify" the impact of air pollution on health outcomes. This study investigated the interaction between daily PM2.5 and daily mean temperature in Beijing, China, using data for the period 2005-2009. Bivariate PM2.5-temperature response surfaces and temperature-stratified generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to study the effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular, respiratory mortality, and total non-accidental mortality across different temperature levels. We found that low temperature could significantly enhance the effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular mortality. For an increase of 10 μg/m(3) in PM2.5 concentration in the lowest temperature range (-9.7∼2.6 °C), the relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular mortality increased 1.27 % (95 % CI 0.38∼2.17 %), which was higher than that of the whole temperature range (0.59 %, 95 % CI 0.22-1.16 %). The largest effect of PM2.5 on respiratory mortality appeared in the high temperature range. For an increase of 10 μg/m(3) in PM2.5 concentration, RR of respiratory mortality increased 1.70 % (95 % CI 0.92∼3.33 %) in the highest level (23.50∼31.80 °C). For the total non-accidental mortality, significant associations appeared only in low temperature levels (-9.7∼2.6 °C): for an increase of 10 μg/m(3) in current day PM2.5 concentration, RR increased 1.27 % (95 % CI 0.46∼2.00 %) in the lowest temperature level. No lag effect was observed. The results suggest that in air pollution mortality time series studies, the possibility of an interaction between air pollution and temperature should be considered.

Contrasting patterns of hot spell effects on morbidity and mortality for cardiovascular diseases in the Czech Republic, 1994-2009

The study examines effects of hot spells on cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality in the population of the Czech Republic, with emphasis on differences between ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CD) and between morbidity and mortality. Daily data on CVD morbidity (hospital admissions) and mortality over 1994-2009 were obtained from national hospitalization and mortality registers and standardized to account for long-term changes as well as seasonal and weekly cycles. Hot spells were defined as periods of at least two consecutive days with average daily air temperature anomalies above the 95% quantile during June to August. Relative deviations of mortality and morbidity from the baseline were evaluated. Hot spells were associated with excess mortality for all examined cardiovascular causes (CVD, IHD and CD). The increases were more pronounced for CD than IHD mortality in most population groups, mainly in males. In the younger population (0-64 years), however, significant excess mortality was observed for IHD while there was no excess mortality for CD. A short-term displacement effect was found to be much larger for mortality due to CD than IHD. Excess CVD mortality was not accompanied by increases in hospital admissions and below-expected-levels of morbidity prevailed during hot spells, particularly for IHD in the elderly. This suggests that out-of-hospital deaths represent a major part of excess CVD mortality during heat and that for in-hospital excess deaths CVD is a masked comorbid condition rather than the primary diagnosis responsible for hospitalization.

Effect of daily temperature range on respiratory health in Argentina and its modification by impaired socio-economic conditions and PM10 exposures

Epidemiological investigations regarding temperature influence on human health have focused on mortality rather than morbidity. In addition, most information comes from developed countries despite the increasing evidence that climate change will have devastating impacts on disadvantaged populations living in developing countries. In the present study, we assessed the impact of daily temperature range on upper and lower respiratory infections in Cordoba, Argentina, and explored the effect modification of socio-economic factors and influence of airborne particles We found that temperature range is a strong risk factor for admissions due to both upper and lower respiratory infections, particularly in elderly individuals, and that these effects are more pronounced in sub-populations with low education level or in poor living conditions. These results indicate that socio-economic factors are strong modifiers of the association between temperature variability and respiratory morbidity, thus they should be considered in risk assessments.

A Heat Vulnerability Index and Adaptation Solutions for Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

With increasing evidence of global warming, many cities have focused attention on response plans to address their populations' vulnerabilities. Despite expected increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, the health impacts of such events in urban areas can be minimized with careful policy and economic investments. We focus on Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and ask two questions. First, what are the top factors contributing to heat vulnerability and how do these characteristics manifest geospatially throughout Pittsburgh? Second, assuming the City wishes to deploy additional cooling centers, what placement will optimally address the vulnerability of the at risk populations? We use national census data, ArcGIS geospatial modeling, and statistical analysis to determine a range of heat vulnerability indices and optimal cooling center placement. We find that while different studies use different data and statistical calculations, all methods tested locate additional cooling centers at the confluence of the three rivers (Downtown), the northeast side of Pittsburgh (Shadyside/Highland Park), and the southeast side of Pittsburgh (Squirrel Hill). This suggests that for Pittsburgh, a researcher could apply the same factor analysis procedure to compare data sets for different locations and times; factor analyses for heat vulnerability are more robust than previously thought.

Heterogeneity in individually experienced temperatures (IETs) within an urban neighborhood: insights from a new approach to measuring heat exposure

Urban environmental health hazards, including exposure to extreme heat, have become increasingly important to understand in light of ongoing climate change and urbanization. In cities, neighborhoods are often considered a homogenous and appropriate unit with which to assess heat risk. This manuscript presents results from a pilot study examining the variability of individually experienced temperatures (IETs) within a single urban neighborhood. In July 2013, 23 research participants were recruited from the South End neighborhood of Boston and equipped with Thermochron iButtons that measured the air temperatures surrounding individuals as they went about their daily lives. IETs were measured during a heat wave period (July 17-20), which included 2 days with excessive heat warnings and 1 day with a heat advisory, as well as a reference period (July 20-23) in which temperatures were below seasonal averages. IETs were not homogeneous during the heat wave period; mean IETs were significantly different between participants (p < 0.001). The majority of participants recorded IETs significantly lower than outdoor ambient temperatures (OATs), and on average, the mean IET was 3.7 °C below the mean OAT. Compared with IETs during the reference period, IETs during the heat wave period were 1.0 °C higher. More than half of participants did not experience statistically different temperatures between the two test periods, despite the fact that the mean OAT was 6.5 °C higher during the heat wave period. The IET data collected for this sample and study period suggest that (1) heterogeneity in individual heat exposure exists within this neighborhood and that (2) outdoor temperatures misrepresent the mean experienced temperatures during a heat wave period. Individual differences in attributes (gender, race, socioeconomic status, etc.), behaviors (schedules, preferences, lifestyle, etc.), and access to resources are overlooked determinants of heat exposure and should be better integrated with group- and neighborhood-level characteristics. Understanding IETs for the population at large may lead to innovative advances in heat-health intervention and mitigation strategies.

A Case-Only Study of Vulnerability to Heat Wave-Related Mortality in New York City (2000-2011)

BACKGROUND

As a result of climate change, the frequency of extreme temperature events is expected to increase, and such events are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Vulnerability patterns, and corresponding adaptation strategies, are most usefully conceptualized at a local level.

METHODS

We used a case-only analysis to examine subject and neighborhood characteristics that modified the association between heat waves and mortality. All deaths of New York City residents from 2000 through 2011 were included in this analysis. Meteorological data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Modifying characteristics were obtained from the death record and geographic data sets.

RESULTS

A total of 234,042 adult deaths occurred during the warm season of our study period. Compared with other warm-season days, deaths during heat waves were more likely to occur in black (non-Hispanic) individuals than other race/ethnicities [odds ratio (OR) = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.12], more likely to occur at home than in institutions and hospital settings (OR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.16), and more likely among those living in census tracts that received greater public assistance (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.09). Finally, deaths during heat waves were more likely among residents in areas of the city with higher relative daytime summer surface temperature and less likely among residents living in areas with more green space.

CONCLUSION

Mortality during heat waves varies widely within a city. Understanding which individuals and neighborhoods are most vulnerable can help guide local preparedness efforts.

The effect of heat waves on mortality in susceptible groups: a cohort study of a mediterranean and a northern European City

BACKGROUND

Climate change is projected to increase the number and intensity of extreme weather events, for example heat waves. Heat waves have adverse health effects, especially for the elderly, since chronic diseases are more frequent in that group than in the population overall. The aim of the study was to investigate mortality during heat waves in an adult population aged 50 years or over, as well as in susceptible subgroups of that population in Rome and Stockholm during the summer periods from 2000 to 2008.

METHODS

We collected daily number of deaths occurring between 15th May and 15th September each year for the population above 50 as well as the susceptible subgroups. Heat wave days were defined as two or more days exceeding the city specific 95th percentile of maximum apparent temperature (MAT). The relationship between heat waves and all-cause non-accidental mortality was investigated through time series modelling, adjusting for time trends.

RESULTS

The percent increase in daily mortality during heat waves as compared to normal summer days was, in the 50+ population, 22% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 18-26%) in Rome and 8% (95% CI: 3-12%) in Stockholm. Subgroup specific increase in mortality in Rome ranged from 7% (95% CI:-17-39%) among survivors of myocardial infarction to 25% in the COPD (95% CI:9-43%) and diabetes (95% CI:14-37%) subgroups. In Stockholm the range was from 10% (95% CI: 2-19%) for congestive heart failure to 33% (95% CI: 10-61%) for the psychiatric subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality during heat waves increased in both Rome and Stockholm for the 50+ population as well as in the considered subgroups. It should be evaluated if protective measures should be directed towards susceptible groups, rather than the population as a whole.

Assessing variability in the impacts of heat on health outcomes in New York City over time, season, and heat-wave duration

While the impacts of heat upon mortality and morbidity have been frequently studied, few studies have examined the relationship between heat, morbidity, and mortality across the same events. This research assesses the relationship between heat events and morbidity and mortality in New York City for the period 1991-2004. Heat events are defined based on oppressive weather types as determined by the Spatial Synoptic Classification. Morbidity data include hospitalizations for heat-related, respiratory, and cardiovascular causes; mortality data include these subsets as well as all-cause totals. Distributed-lag models assess the relationship between heat and health outcome for a cumulative 15-day period following exposure. To further refine analysis, subset analyses assess the differences between early- and late-season events, shorter and longer events, and earlier and later years. The strongest heat-health relationships occur with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and heat-related hospital admissions. The impacts of heat are greater during longer heat events and during the middle of summer, when increased mortality is still statistically significant after accounting for mortality displacement. Early-season heat waves have increases in mortality that appear to be largely short-term displacement. The impacts of heat on mortality have decreased over time. Heat-related hospital admissions have increased during this time, especially during the earlier days of heat events. Given the trends observed, it suggests that a greater awareness of heat hazards may have led to increased short-term hospitalizations with a commensurate decrease in mortality.

Short-term effects of air temperature on mortality and effect modification by air pollution in three cities of Bavaria, Germany: a time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Air temperature has been shown to be associated with mortality; however, only very few studies have been conducted in Germany. This study examined the association between daily air temperature and cause-specific mortality in Bavaria, Southern Germany. Moreover, we investigated effect modification by age and ambient air pollution.

METHODS

We obtained data from Munich, Nuremberg as well as Augsburg, Germany, for the period 1990 to 2006. Data included daily cause-specific death counts, mean daily meteorology and air pollution concentrations (particulate matter with a diameter<10 μm [PM10] and maximum 8-h ozone). We used Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models adjusting for long-term trend, calendar effects, and meteorological factors. Air pollutant concentrations were categorized into three levels, and an interaction term was included to quantify potential effect modification of the air temperature effects.

RESULTS

The temperature-mortality relationships were non-linear for all cause-specific mortality categories showing U- or J-shaped curves. An increase from the 90th (20.0 °C) to the 99th percentile (24.8 °C) of 2-day average temperature led to an increase in non-accidental mortality by 11.4% (95% CI: 7.6%-15.3%), whereas a decrease from the 10th (-1.0 °C) to the 1st percentile (-7.5 °C) in the 15-day average temperature resulted in an increase of 6.2% (95% CI: 1.8%-10.8%). The very old were found to be most susceptible to heat effects. Results also suggested some effect modification by ozone, but not for PM10.

CONCLUSIONS

Results indicate that both very low and very high air temperature increase cause-specific mortality in Bavaria. Results also pointed to the importance of considering effect modification by age and ozone in assessing temperature effects on mortality.

Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health

Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies.

Susceptibility to mortality related to temperature and heat and cold wave duration in the population of Stockholm County, Sweden

Background

Ambient temperatures can cause an increase in mortality. A better understanding is needed of how health status and other factors modify the risk associated with high and low temperatures, to improve the basis of preventive measures. Differences in susceptibility to temperature and to heat and cold wave duration are relatively unexplored.

Objectives

We studied the associations between mortality and temperature and heat and cold wave duration, stratified by age and individual and medical factors.

Methods

Deaths among all residents of Stockholm County between 1990 and 2002 were linked to discharge diagnosis data from hospital admissions, and associations were examined using the time stratified case-crossover design. Analyses were stratified by gender, age, pre-existing disease, country of origin, and municipality level wealth, and adjusted for potential confounding factors.

Results

The effect on mortality by heat wave duration was higher for lower ages, in areas with lower wealth, for hospitalized patients younger than age 65. Odds were elevated among females younger than age 65, in groups with a previous hospital admission for mental disorders, and in persons with previous cardiovascular disease. Gradual increases in summer temperatures were associated with mortality in people older than 80 years, and with mortality in groups with a previous myocardial infarction and with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the population younger than 65 years. During winter, mortality was associated with a decrease in temperature particularly in men and with the duration of cold spells for the population older than 80. A history of hospitalization for myocardial infarction increased the odds associated with cold temperatures among the population older than 65. Previous mental disease or substance abuse increased the odds of death among the population younger than 65.

Conclusion

To increase effectiveness, we suggest preventive efforts should not assume susceptible groups are the same for warm and cold days and heat and cold waves, respectively.

The impact of heat waves on children's health: a systematic review

Young children are thought to be particularly sensitive to heat waves, but relatively less research attention has been paid to this field to date. A systematic review was conducted to elucidate the relationship between heat waves and children's health. Literature published up to August 2012 were identified using the following MeSH terms and keywords: "heatwave", "heat wave", "child health", "morbidity", "hospital admission", "emergency department visit", "family practice", "primary health care", "death" and "mortality". Of the 628 publications identified, 12 met the selection criteria. The existing literature does not consistently suggest that mortality among children increases significantly during heat waves, even though infants were associated with more heat-related deaths. Exposure to heat waves in the perinatal period may pose a threat to children's health. Pediatric diseases or conditions associated with heat waves include renal disease, respiratory disease, electrolyte imbalance and fever. Future research should focus on how to develop a consistent definition of a heat wave from a children's health perspective, identifying the best measure of children's exposure to heat waves, exploring sensitive outcome measures to quantify the impact of heat waves on children, evaluating the possible impacts of heat waves on children's birth outcomes, and understanding the differences in vulnerability to heat waves among children of different ages and from different income countries. Projection of the children's disease burden caused by heat waves under climate change scenarios, and development of effective heat wave mitigation and adaptation strategies that incorporate other child protective health measures, are also strongly recommended.