New horizons for comparative studies and meta-analyses

Comparative analyses and meta-analyses are key tools to elucidate broad biological principles, yet the two approaches often appear different in purpose. We propose an integrated approach that can generate deeper insights into ecoevolutionary processes. Marrying comparative and meta-analytic approaches will allow for (i) a more accurate investigation of drivers of biological variation, (ii) a greater ability to account for sources of non-independence in experimental data, (iii) more effective control of publication bias, and (iv) improved transparency and reproducibility. Stronger integration of meta-analytic and comparative studies can also broaden the scope from species-centric investigations to community-level responses and function-valued traits (e.g., reaction norms). We illuminate commonalities, differences, and the transformative potential of combining these methodologies for advancing ecology and evolutionary biology.

The magnitude of selection on growth varies among years and increases under warming conditions in a subarctic seabird

Because of ongoing rapid climate change, many ecosystems are becoming both warmer and more variable, and these changes are likely to alter the magnitude and variability of natural selection acting on wild populations. Critically, changes and fluctuations in selection can impact both population demography and evolutionary change. Therefore, predicting the impacts of climate change depends on understanding the magnitude and variation in selection on traits across different life stages and environments. Long-term experiments in wild settings are a great opportunity to determine the impact of environmental conditions on selection. Here we examined variability in the strength of selection on size traits of nestling black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) in a 25-year study including a food supplementation experiment on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Using mixed effect models, we examined the annual variability of stage-specific and resource-specific selection gradients across 25 years. We found that (a) larger and heavier hatchlings were the most likely to survive during early ontogeny, (b) non-food supplemented younger nestlings in a brood experienced the strongest selection, and (c) warmer conditions increased the magnitude of selection on nestling mass and affected non-food supplemented and second-hatched nestlings the most. Our results suggested that variable resource dynamics likely caused some of the changes in selection from year to year and that warming conditions increased the strength of selection on subarctic seabird growth. However, our experimental manipulation revealed that local environmental heterogeneity could buffer the selection expected from broader climatic changes. Consequently, understanding the interactive effects of local conditions and general changes in climate seems likely to improve our ability to predict future selection gradients.

Among- and Within-Individual Variance in Metabolic Thermal Reaction Norms

AbstractIn ectotherms, temperature has a strong effect on metabolic rate (MR), yet the extent to which the thermal sensitivity of MR varies among versus within individuals is largely unknown. This is of interest because significant among-individual variation is a prerequisite for the evolution of metabolic thermal sensitivity. Here, we estimated the repeatability (R) of the thermal sensitivity of MR in individual virgin, adult male Drosophila melanogaster (N = 316 ) by taking repeated overnight measures of their MRs at two temperatures (~24°C and ~27°C). At the population level, thermal sensitivity decreased with locomotor activity, and older individuals showed a higher thermal sensitivity of MR than younger individuals. Taking these effects (and body mass) into account, we detected significant repeatability in both the centered intercept (R int = 0.52 ± 0.04 ) and the slope (R slp = 0.21 ± 0.07 ) of the metabolic thermal reaction norms, which respectively represent average MR and thermal sensitivity of MR. Furthermore, individuals with a higher overall MR also displayed greater increases in MR as temperature increased from ~24°C to ~27°C (r ind = 0.32 ± 0.14 ). Average MR and thermal sensitivity of MR were also positively correlated within individuals (r e = 0.15 ± 0.07 ). Our study represents a point of departure for future larger studies, in which more complex protocols (e.g., wider temperature range, breeding design) can be applied to quantify the causal components of variation in thermal sensitivity that are needed to make accurate predictions of adaptive responses to global warming.

A data-driven framework to model the organism-environment system

Organisms modify their development and function in response to the environment. At the same time, the environment is modified by the activities of the organism. Despite the ubiquity of such dynamical interactions in nature, it remains challenging to develop models that accurately represent them, and that can be fitted using data. These features are desirable when modeling phenomena such as phenotypic plasticity, to generate quantitative predictions of how the system will respond to environmental signals of different magnitude or at different times, for example, during ontogeny. Here, we explain a modeling framework that represents the organism and environment as a single coupled dynamical system in terms of inputs and outputs. Inputs are external signals, and outputs are measurements of the system in time. The framework uses time-series data of inputs and outputs to fit a nonlinear black-box model that allows to predict how the system will respond to novel input signals. The framework has three key properties: it captures the dynamical nature of the organism-environment system, it can be fitted with data, and it can be applied without detailed knowledge of the system. We study phenotypic plasticity using in silico experiments and demonstrate that the framework predicts the response to novel environmental signals. The framework allows us to model plasticity as a dynamical property that changes in time during ontogeny, reflecting the well-known fact that organisms are more or less plastic at different developmental stages.

Sexual conflict, heterochrony and tissue specificity as evolutionary problems of adaptive plasticity in development

Differential gene expression represents a fundamental cause and manifestation of phenotypic plasticity. Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in gene expression as a trait evolves when alleles that mediate gene regulation serve to increase organismal fitness by improving the alignment of variation in gene expression with variation in circumstances. Among the diverse circumstances that a gene encounters are distinct cell types, developmental stages and sexes, as well as an organism's extrinsic ecological environments. Consequently, adaptive phenotypic plasticity provides a common framework to consider diverse evolutionary problems by considering the shared implications of alleles that produce context-dependent gene expression. From this perspective, adaptive plasticity represents an evolutionary resolution to conflicts of interest that arise from any negatively pleiotropic effects of expression of a gene across ontogeny, among tissues, between the sexes, or across extrinsic environments. This view highlights shared properties within the general relation of fitness, trait expression and context that may nonetheless differ substantively in the grain of selection within and among generations to influence the likelihood of adaptive plasticity as an evolutionary response. Research programmes that historically have focused on these separate issues may use the insights from one another by recognizing their shared dependence on context-dependent gene regulatory evolution.

The Contribution of Mutation to Variation in Temperature-Dependent Sprint Speed in Zebrafish, Danio rerio

AbstractThe contribution of new mutations to phenotypic variation and the consequences of this variation for individual fitness are fundamental concepts for understanding genetic variation and adaptation. Here, we investigated how mutation influenced variation in a complex trait in zebrafish, Danio rerio. Typical of many ecologically relevant traits in ectotherms, swimming speed in fish is temperature dependent, with evidence of adaptive evolution of thermal performance. We chemically induced novel germline point mutations in males and measured sprint speed in their sons at six temperatures (between 16°C and 34°C). Heterozygous mutational effects on speed were strongly positively correlated among temperatures, resulting in statistical support for only a single axis of mutational variation, reflecting temperature-independent variation in speed (faster-slower mode). These results suggest pleiotropic effects on speed across different temperatures; however, spurious correlations arise via linkage or heterogeneity in mutation number when mutations have consistent directional effects on each trait. Here, mutation did not change mean speed, indicating no directional bias in mutational effects. The results contribute to emerging evidence that mutations may predominantly have synergistic cross-environment effects, in contrast to conditionally neutral or antagonistic effects that underpin thermal adaptation. We discuss several aspects of experimental design that may affect resolution of mutations with nonsynergistic effects.

A genetic tradeoff for tolerance to moderate and severe heat stress in US hybrid maize

Global climate change is increasing both average temperatures and the frequencies of extreme high temperatures. Past studies have documented a strong negative effect of exposures to temperatures >30°C on hybrid maize yields. However, these studies could not disentangle genetic adaptation via artificial selection from changes in agronomic practices. Because most of the earliest maize hybrids are no longer available, side-by-side comparisons with modern hybrids under current field conditions are generally impossible. Here, we report on the collection and curation of 81 years of public yield trial records covering 4,730 maize hybrids, which enabled us to model genetic variation for temperature responses among maize hybrids. We show that selection may have indirectly and inconsistently contributed to the genetic adaptation of maize to moderate heat stress over this time period while preserving genetic variance for continued adaptation. However, our results reveal the existence of a genetic tradeoff for tolerance to moderate and severe heat stress, leading to a decrease in tolerance to severe heat stress over the same time period. Both trends are particularly conspicuous since the mid-1970s. Such a tradeoff poses challenges to the continued adaptation of maize to warming climates due to a projected increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. Nevertheless, given recent advances in phenomics, enviromics, and physiological modeling, our results offer a degree of optimism for the capacity of plant breeders to adapt maize to warming climates, assuming appropriate levels of R&D investment.

Speciation and development

Understanding general principles about the origin of species remains one of the foundational challenges in evolutionary biology. The genomic divergence between groups of individuals can spawn hybrid inviability and hybrid sterility, which presents a tantalizing developmental problem. Divergent developmental programs may yield either conserved or divergent phenotypes relative to ancestral traits, both of which can be responsible for reproductive isolation during the speciation process. The genetic mechanisms of developmental evolution involve cis- and trans-acting gene regulatory change, protein-protein interactions, genetic network structures, dosage, and epigenetic regulation, all of which also have roots in population genetic and molecular evolutionary processes. Toward the goal of demystifying Darwin's "mystery of mysteries," this review integrates microevolutionary concepts of genetic change with principles of organismal development, establishing explicit links between population genetic process and developmental mechanisms in the production of macroevolutionary pattern. This integration aims to establish a more unified view of speciation that binds process and mechanism.

Evolutionary game theory and the adaptive dynamics approach: adaptation where individuals interact

Evolutionary game theory and the adaptive dynamics approach have made invaluable contributions to understanding how gradual evolution leads to adaptation when individuals interact. Here, we review some of the basic tools that have come out of these contributions to model the evolution of quantitative traits in complex populations. We collect together mathematical expressions that describe directional and disruptive selection in class- and group-structured populations in terms of individual fitness, with the aims of bridging different models and interpreting selection. In particular, our review of disruptive selection suggests there are two main paths that can lead to diversity: (i) when individual fitness increases more than linearly with trait expression; (ii) when trait expression simultaneously increases the probability that an individual is in a certain context (e.g. a given age, sex, habitat, size or social environment) and fitness in that context. We provide various examples of these and more broadly argue that population structure lays the ground for the emergence of polymorphism with unique characteristics. Beyond this, we hope that the descriptions of selection we present here help see the tight links among fundamental branches of evolutionary biology, from life history to social evolution through evolutionary ecology, and thus favour further their integration. This article is part of the theme issue 'Half a century of evolutionary games: a synthesis of theory, application and future directions'.

The social evolution of individual differences: Future directions for a comparative science of personality in social behavior

Personality is essential for understanding the evolution of cooperation and conflict in behavior. However, personality science remains disconnected from the field of social evolution, limiting our ability to explain how personality and plasticity shape phenotypic adaptation in social behavior. Researchers also lack an integrative framework for comparing personality in the contextualized and multifaceted behaviors central to social interactions among humans and other animals. Here we address these challenges by developing a social evolutionary approach to personality, synthesizing theory, methods, and organizing questions in the study of individuality and sociality in behavior. We critically review current measurement practices and introduce social reaction norm models for comparative research on the evolution of personality in social environments. These models demonstrate that social plasticity affects the heritable variance of personality, and that individual differences in social plasticity can further modify the rate and direction of adaptive social evolution. Future empirical studies of frequency- and density-dependent social selection on personality are crucial for further developing this framework and testing adaptive theory of social niche specialization.

Simulating physiological flexibility in the acute glucocorticoid response to stressors reveals limitations of current empirical approaches

Wild animals often experience unpredictable challenges that demand rapid and flexible responses. The glucocorticoid mediated stress response is one of the major systems that allows vertebrates to rapidly adjust their physiology and behavior. Given its role in responding to challenges, evolutionary physiologists have focused on the consequences of between-individual and, more recently, within-individual variation in the acute glucocorticoid response. However, empirical studies of physiological flexibility are severely limited by the logistical challenges of measuring the same animal multiple times. Data simulation is a powerful approach when empirical data are limited, but has not been adopted to date in studies of physiological flexibility. In this article, I develop a simulation that can generate realistic acute glucocorticoid response data with user specified characteristics. Simulated animals can be sampled continuously through an acute response and across as many separate responses as desired, while varying key parameters. Using the simulation, I develop several scenarios that address key questions in physiological flexibility. These scenarios demonstrate the conditions under which a single glucocorticoid trait can be accurately assessed with typical experimental designs, the consequences of covariation between different components of the acute stress response, and the way that context specific differences in variability of acute responses can influence the power to detect relationships between the strength of the acute stress response and fitness. I also describe how to use the simulation tools to aid in the design and evaluation of empirical studies of physiological flexibility.

Quantifying population and clone-specific non-linear reaction norms to food gradients in Daphnia magna

Phenotypic plasticity is normally quantified as a reaction norm which details how trait expression changes across an environmental gradient. Sometime reaction norms are linear, but often reaction norms are assumed to be linear because plasticity is typically quantified as the difference in trait expression measured in two environments. This simplification limits how plastic responses vary between genotypes and may also bias the predictions of models investigating how plasticity influences a population’s ability to adapt to a changing environment. Consequently, there is a pressing need to characterize the real shape of reaction norms and their genetic variability across ecologically relevant environmental gradients. To address this knowledge gap we measured the multi-trait plastic response of 7 Daphnia magna clones from the same population across a broad resource gradient. We used a Random Regression Mixed Model approach to characterize and quantify average and clone-specific responses to resource variation. Our results demonstrate that non-linear models outperformed a linear model for all 4 of the life-history traits we measured. The plastic reaction norms of all 4 traits were similar in shape and were often best described by a non-linear asymptotic model. Clonal variation in non-linear plastic responses was detectable for 3 out of the 4 traits that we measured although the nature and magnitude of variation across the resource gradient was trait-specific. We interpret our findings with respect to the impact that plasticity has on the evolutionary potential of a population in different resource environments.

Diversity in nonlinear responses to soil moisture shapes evolutionary constraints in Brachypodium

Water availability is perhaps the greatest environmental determinant of plant yield and fitness. However, our understanding of plant-water relations is limited because-like many studies of organism-environment interaction-it is primarily informed by experiments considering performance at two discrete levels-wet and dry-rather than as a continuously varying environmental gradient. Here, we used experimental and statistical methods based on function-valued traits to explore genetic variation in responses to a continuous soil moisture gradient in physiological and morphological traits among 10 genotypes across two species of the model grass genus Brachypodium. We find that most traits exhibit significant genetic variation and nonlinear responses to soil moisture variability. We also observe differences in the shape of these nonlinear responses between traits and genotypes. Emergent phenomena arise from this variation including changes in trait correlations and evolutionary constraints as a function of soil moisture. Our results point to the importance of considering diversity in nonlinear organism-environment relationships to understand plastic and evolutionary responses to changing climates.

Functional physiological phenotyping with functional mapping: A general framework to bridge the phenotype-genotype gap in plant physiology

The recent years have witnessed the emergence of high-throughput phenotyping techniques. In particular, these techniques can characterize a comprehensive landscape of physiological traits of plants responding to dynamic changes in the environment. These innovations, along with the next-generation genomic technologies, have brought plant science into the big-data era. However, a general framework that links multifaceted physiological traits to DNA variants is still lacking. Here, we developed a general framework that integrates functional physiological phenotyping (FPP) with functional mapping (FM). This integration, implemented with high-dimensional statistical reasoning, can aid in our understanding of how genotype is translated toward phenotype. As a demonstration of method, we implemented the transpiration and soil-plant-atmosphere measurements of a tomato introgression line population into the FPP-FM framework, facilitating the identification of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) that mediate the spatiotemporal change of transpiration rate and the test of how these QTLs control, through their interaction networks, phenotypic plasticity under drought stress.

A framework for understanding gene expression plasticity and its influence on stress tolerance

Phenotypic plasticity can serve as a stepping stone towards adaptation. Recently, studies have shown that gene expression contributes to emergent stress responses such as thermal tolerance, with tolerant and susceptible populations showing distinct transcriptional profiles. However, given the dynamic nature of gene expression, interpreting transcriptomic results in a way that elucidates the functional connection between gene expression and the observed stress response is challenging. Here, we present a conceptual framework to guide interpretation of gene expression reaction norms in the context of stress tolerance. We consider the evolutionary and adaptive potential of gene expression reaction norms and discuss the influence of sampling timing, transcriptomic resilience, as well as complexities related to life history when interpreting gene expression dynamics and how these patterns relate to host tolerance. We highlight corals as a case study to demonstrate the value of this framework for non-model systems. As species face rapidly changing environmental conditions, modulating gene expression can serve as a mechanistic link from genetic and cellular processes to the physiological responses that allow organisms to thrive under novel conditions. Interpreting how or whether a species can employ gene expression plasticity to ensure short-term survival will be critical for understanding the global impacts of climate change across diverse taxa.

Pleiotropy and epistasis within and between signaling pathways defines the genetic architecture of fungal virulence

Cryptococcal disease is estimated to affect nearly a quarter of a million people annually. Environmental isolates of Cryptococcus deneoformans, which make up 15 to 30% of clinical infections in temperate climates such as Europe, vary in their pathogenicity, ranging from benign to hyper-virulent. Key traits that contribute to virulence, such as the production of the pigment melanin, an extracellular polysaccharide capsule, and the ability to grow at human body temperature have been identified, yet little is known about the genetic basis of variation in such traits. Here we investigate the genetic basis of melanization, capsule size, thermal tolerance, oxidative stress resistance, and antifungal drug sensitivity using quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping in progeny derived from a cross between two divergent C. deneoformans strains. Using a "function-valued" QTL analysis framework that exploits both time-series information and growth differences across multiple environments, we identified QTL for each of these virulence traits and drug susceptibility. For three QTL we identified the underlying genes and nucleotide differences that govern variation in virulence traits. One of these genes, RIC8, which encodes a regulator of cAMP-PKA signaling, contributes to variation in four virulence traits: melanization, capsule size, thermal tolerance, and resistance to oxidative stress. Two major effect QTL for amphotericin B resistance map to the genes SSK1 and SSK2, which encode key components of the HOG pathway, a fungal-specific signal transduction network that orchestrates cellular responses to osmotic and other stresses. We also discovered complex epistatic interactions within and between genes in the HOG and cAMP-PKA pathways that regulate antifungal drug resistance and resistance to oxidative stress. Our findings advance the understanding of virulence traits among diverse lineages of Cryptococcus, and highlight the role of genetic variation in key stress-responsive signaling pathways as a major contributor to phenotypic variation.

Use of Functional Linear Models to Detect Associations between Characteristics of Walking and Continuous Responses Using Accelerometry Data

Various methods exist to measure physical activity. Subjective methods, such as diaries and surveys, are relatively inexpensive ways of measuring one’s physical activity; however, they are prone to measurement error and bias due to self-reporting. Wearable accelerometers offer a non-invasive and objective measure of one’s physical activity and are now widely used in observational studies. Accelerometers record high frequency data and each produce an unlabeled time series at the sub-second level. An important activity to identify from the data collected is walking, since it is often the only form of activity for certain populations. Currently, most methods use an activity summary which ignores the nuances of walking data. We propose methodology to model specific continuous responses with a functional linear model utilizing spectra obtained from the local fast Fourier transform (FFT) of walking as a predictor. Utilizing prior knowledge of the mechanics of walking, we incorporate this as additional information for the structure of our transformed walking spectra. The methods were applied to the in-the-laboratory data obtained from the Developmental Epidemiologic Cohort Study (DECOS).

Divergence and constraint in the thermal sensitivity of aquatic insect swimming performance

Environmental temperature variation may play a significant role in the adaptive evolutionary divergence of ectotherm thermal performance curves (TPCs). However, divergence in TPCs may also be constrained due to various causes. Here, we measured TPCs for swimming velocity of temperate and tropical mayflies (Family: Baetidae) and their stonefly predators (Family: Perlidae) from different elevations. We predicted that differences in seasonal climatic regimes would drive divergence in TPCs between temperate and tropical species. Stable tropical temperatures should favor the evolution of "specialists" that perform well across a narrow range of temperatures. Seasonally, variable temperatures in temperate zones, however, should favor "generalists" that perform well across a broad range of temperatures. In phylogenetically paired comparisons of mayflies and stoneflies, swimming speed was generally unaffected by experimental temperature and did not differ among populations between latitudes, suggesting a maintenance of performance breadth across elevation and latitude. An exception was found between temperate and tropical mayflies at low elevation where climatic differences between latitudes are large. In addition, TPCs did not differ between mayflies and their stonefly predators, except at tropical low elevation. Our results indicate that divergence in TPCs may be constrained in aquatic insects except under the most different thermal regimes, perhaps because of trade-offs that reduce thermal sensitivity and increase performance breadth.

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Basal tolerance but not plasticity gives invasive springtails the advantage in an assemblage setting

As global climates change, alien species are anticipated to have a growing advantage relative to their indigenous counterparts, mediated through consistent trait differences between the groups. These insights have largely been developed based on interspecific comparisons using multiple species examined from different locations. Whether such consistent physiological trait differences are present within assemblages is not well understood, especially for animals. Yet, it is at the assemblage level that interactions play out. Here, we examine whether physiological trait differences observed at the interspecific level are also applicable to assemblages. We focus on the Collembola, an important component of the soil fauna characterized by invasions globally, and five traits related to fitness: critical thermal maximum, minimum and range, desiccation resistance and egg development rate. We test the predictions that the alien component of a local assemblage has greater basal physiological tolerances or higher rates, and more pronounced phenotypic plasticity than the indigenous component. Basal critical thermal maximum, thermal tolerance range, desiccation resistance, optimum temperature for egg development, the rate of development at that optimum and the upper temperature limiting egg hatching success are all significantly higher, on average, for the alien than the indigenous components of the assemblage. Outcomes for critical thermal minimum are variable. No significant differences in phenotypic plasticity exist between the alien and indigenous components of the assemblage. These results are consistent with previous interspecific studies investigating basal thermal tolerance limits and development rates and their phenotypic plasticity, in arthropods, but are inconsistent with results from previous work on desiccation resistance. Thus, for the Collembola, the anticipated advantage of alien over indigenous species under warming and drying is likely to be manifest in local assemblages, globally.

The dynamic mosaic phenotypes of flowering plants

Ecological interaction and adaptation both depend on phenotypic characteristics. In contrast with the common conception of the 'adult' phenotype, plant bodies develop continuously during their lives. Furthermore, the different units (metamers) that comprise plant bodies are not identical copies, but vary extensively within individuals. These characteristics foster recognition of plant phenotypes as dynamic mosaics. We elaborate this conception based largely on a wide-ranging review of developmental, ecological and evolutionary studies of plant reproduction, and identify its utility in the analysis of plant form, function and diversification. An expanded phenotypic conception is warranted because dynamic mosaic features affect plant performance and evolve. Evidence demonstrates that dynamic mosaic phenotypes enable functional ontogeny, division of labour, resource and mating efficiency. In addition, dynamic mosaic features differ between individuals and experience phenotypic selection. Investigation of the characteristics and roles of dynamic and mosaic features of plant phenotypes benefits from considering within-individual variation as a function-valued trait that can be analysed with functional data methods. Phenotypic dynamics and within-individual variation arise despite an individual's genetic uniformity, and develop largely by heterogeneous gene expression and associated hormonal control. These characteristics can be heritable, so that dynamic mosaic phenotypes can evolve and diversify by natural selection.

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids.

Stage-specific genotype-by-environment interactions for cold and heat hardiness in Drosophila melanogaster

Environments often vary across a life cycle, imposing fluctuating natural selection across development. Such fluctuating selection can favor different phenotypes in different life stages, but stage-specific evolutionary responses will depend on genetic variance, covariance, and their interaction across development and across environments. Thus, quantifying how genetic architecture varies with plastic responses to the environment and across development is vital to predict whether stage-specific adaptation will occur in nature. Additionally, the interaction of genetic variation and environmental plasticity (GxE) may be stage-specific, leading to a three-way interaction between genotype, environment, and development or GxDxE. To test for these patterns, we exposed larvae and adults of Drosophila melanogaster isogenic lines derived from a natural population to extreme heat and cold stress after developmental acclimation to cool (18 °C) and warm (25 °C) conditions and measured genetic variance for thermal hardiness. We detected significant GxE that was specific to larvae and adults for cold and heat hardiness (GxDxE), but no significant genetic correlation across development for either trait at either acclimation temperature. However, cross-development phenotypic correlations for acclimation responses suggest that plasticity itself may be developmentally constrained, though rigorously testing this hypothesis requires more experimentation. These results illustrate the potential for stage-specific adaptation within a complex life cycle and demonstrate the importance of measuring traits at appropriate developmental stages and environmental conditions when predicting evolutionary responses to changing climates.