Renal dysfunction as a predictor of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation: validation of the R(2)CHADS(2) index in the ROCKET AF (Rivaroxaban Once-daily, oral, direct factor Xa inhibition Compared with vitamin K antagonism for prevention of stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation) and ATRIA (AnTicoagulation and Risk factors In Atrial fibrillation) study cohorts

Non-cardiac and cardiac risk for ischemic stroke in young adults: The Stanford Y-CORE (Young Cardiovascular Outcomes and Risk Evaluation) study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of stroke is increasing in young to middle-aged adults. Assessing risk factors is important in this large population whose comorbidities may differ from older adults.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort analysis of adults aged between 20 and 50 presenting to the Stanford Healthcare system from 1 January 2000 through 31 December 2021, with no prior history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, we studied the effects of 30 risk factors on the primary endpoint of incident ischemic stroke, defined by the presence of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes for stroke and confirmed by brain imaging. The secondary endpoint was incident cerebrovascular events defined by the presence of ICD-10 codes for stroke or transient ischemic attacks (TIAs). Associations were measured with time-varying multivariable survival regression.

RESULTS

From an overall population of 1.3 million, we identified 540,999 individuals aged 20-50 years. Over the study period, 802 experienced the primary endpoint and 5734 the secondary endpoint. On multivariable analysis, non-cardiovascular risk factors were independently associated with the primary endpoint, adjusting for established cardiovascular risk factors, including sleep apnea [1.44, (1.19, 1.74)], bipolar disorder [1.88, (1.23, 2.86)], cancer [2.07 (1.71, 2.51)], and chronic kidney disease (CKD) [2.2, (1.73, 2.81)]. Other non-cardiovascular associations included ethno-racial subgroups of Black [2.05, (1.60, 2.64)], Pacific Islander [2.56, (1.70, 3.84)], and Hispanic [1.71, (1.37, 2.15)] versus white non-Hispanics. Combining non-cardiovascular risk factors significant on multivariable analysis with established cardiovascular factors significantly improved the C-index for de novo stroke to 0.814 over that obtained in either group alone (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large population of young adults, several non-cardiovascular factors conferred risk for incident stroke independent of known cardiovascular risk factors and, in combination, significantly improved the prediction of incident stroke over those based on either group of factors alone. These findings may have implications for assessing risk in younger patients with distinct comorbidities.

Polygenic Risk and Cardiovascular Event Risk in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation With Low to Intermediate Stroke Risk

BACKGROUND

The clinical utility of the polygenic risk score in predicting cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) has not yet been established. This study aimed to determine whether the polygenic risk score for AF might be useful in the risk stratification of AF-related cardiovascular events.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study included 9597 oral anticoagulation-naive patients with AF with a CHA2DS2-VA (congestive heart failure; hypertension; age ≥75 years; diabetes; prior stroke or transient ischemic attack or thromboembolism; vascular disease; and age 65-74 years) score of 0 or 1 from the UK Biobank. Patients were stratified according to polygenic risk score tertiles and observed for the occurrence of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism, myocardial infarction, and heart failure hospitalization. The risks of incident events associated with the polygenic risk score were investigated using inverse probability of treatment weighting. Of 9597 individuals, 3800 (39.6%) were women and the mean±SD age was 65.3±6.4 years. During a median follow-up of 4.6 years (interquartile range, 1.7-7.9 years), the incidence rates of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism, myocardial infarction, and heart failure hospitalization were 0.83, 0.42, and 0.61 per 100 person-years, respectively. Compared with low genetic risk, high genetic risk was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.38 (95% CI, 1.08-1.76; P=0.011) for ischemic stroke or systemic embolism, 1.15 (95% CI, 0.82-1.61; P=0.422) for myocardial infarction, and 1.02 (95% CI, 0.78-1.34; P=0.895) for heart failure hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AF with low-intermediate stroke risk, genetic risk for AF is associated with increased risk of stroke or systemic embolism.

Residual risk prediction in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation using machine learning: A report from the GLORIA-AF registry phase II/III

BACKGROUND

Although oral anticoagulation decreases the risk of thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), a residual risk of thrombotic events still exists. This study aimed to construct machine learning (ML) models to predict the residual risk in these patients.

METHODS

Patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular AF were collected from the Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Anti-Thrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (GLORIA-AF) registry. To predict the residual risk of the composite outcome of thrombotic events (defined as ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, transient ischemic attack and myocardial infarction), we constructed four prediction models using the logistic regression (LR), random forest, light gradient boosting machine and extreme gradient boosting machine ML algorithms. Performance was mainly evaluated by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), g-means and F1 scores. Feature importance was evaluated by SHapley Additive exPlanations.

RESULTS

15,829 AF patients (70.33 ± 9.94 years old, 55% male) taking oral anticoagulation were included in our study, and 641 (4.0%) had residual risk, sustaining thrombotic events. In the test set, LR had the best performance with higher AUC trend of 0.712. RF has highest g-means of 0.295 and F1 score of 0.249. This was superior when compared with the CHA2DS2-VA score (AUC 0.698) and 2MACE score (AUC 0.696). Age, history of TE or MI, OAC discontinuation, eGFR and sex were identified as the top five factors associated with residual risk.

CONCLUSION

ML algorithms can improve the prediction of residual risk of anticoagulated AF patients compared to clinical risk factor-based scores.

Interaction between chronic kidney disease and atrial fibrillation on incident stroke and all-cause mortality: Matched cohort study of 49,594 patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The interaction between full-spectrum chronic kidney disease (CKD) and atrial fibrillation (AF) on ischemic stroke and all-cause mortality risk, particularly in stage 4 and 5 CKD, remains undetermined.

METHODS

This matched cohort study identified incident AF patients using the International Classification of Disease codes and electrocardiograms from the Clinical Research Data Repository of China Medical University Hospital between 2003 and 2020. For each AF patient, we selected four controls without AF and matched them by age, sex, eGFR within 10 mL/min/1.73 m2, end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) vintage, and diagnosis year. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were utilized to assess the interaction between AF and CKD on three-year ischemic stroke and all-cause mortality outcomes.

RESULTS

Within a total of 10,155 patients and 39,439 controls, incidence rates were 3.03 % and 1.48 % for ischemic stroke and 15.6 % and 9.53 % for overall mortality, respectively. In AF, the stroke risk was the highest among patients with stage 4 and 5-ND (non-dialysis) CKD with adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 3.31 (95 % CI, 2.46-4.45) and 2.73 (1.88-3.96), respectively. The mortality risk difference varied between 45% and 177 % with the highest difference noted in ESKD (aHR 3.36 [95 % CI, 2.84-3.98] in AF vs. 1.59 [95 % CI, 1.28-1.96] in non-AF; interaction p < 0.001). Anticoagulation therapy significantly lowered the mortality risk among patients with AF and advanced CKD (3-way interaction p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of ischemic stroke and overall mortality was particularly high among patients with concurrent AF and stage 4 and 5-ND CKD, underscoring the urgent evidence to optimize prognosis.

Renal function and adverse clinical events in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation: insights from the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase III

Renal function, assessed by creatinine clearance (CrCl), affects the efficacy and safety of oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). To investigate the association between CrCl and the risk of clinical adverse events and compare the safety profiles of vitamin K antagonists (VKA) and non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOAC). Patients with newly diagnosed AF (< 3 months before baseline visit) were collected from the prospective Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Anti-Thrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (GLORIA-AF) registry Phase III. Clinical events assessed included the composite outcome (all-cause death, thromboembolism, and major bleeding), cardiovascular (CV) death, myocardial infarction (MI), and other single outcomes. 10,594 AF patients (mean age 70.35 ± 9.92 years; 55% male; 73% on NOAC) were included. Increasing CrCl was associated with decreased risks of all cause death, composite outcomes and CV-death with in patients with CrCl < 80 mL/min. Multivariate Cox models indicated that compared to VKA, NOAC was associated with lower risks of all cause death (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.68, 95% CI 0.58-0.78), composite outcomes (aHR 0.77, 95% CI 0.69-0.86), CV-death (aHR 0.70, 95% CI 0.56-0.87), and major bleeding (aHR 0.74, 95% CI 0.61-0.91) in AF patients. For CrCl < 30 mL/min, lower risks of all-cause death, composite outcomes and CV death were related to NOAC therapy. In this large prospective global registry, NOACs were associated with better outcomes compared with VKA for patients with normal or impaired renal function.

Ability of CHA2DS2-VASc/R2CHA2DS2-VASc Scores to Predict Complications Related to Cardiac Implantable Electronic Devices

BACKGROUND

Globally, the number of cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) is increasing. In our study, we aimed to investigate whether CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHA2DS2-VASc scores are predictive of CIED-related complications.

METHODS

Our investigation was carried out with a multicenter retrospective design. Patients who underwent CIED surgery at two cardiac centers in Turkey between January 2011 and May 2023, 1676, were evaluated. The patients were divided into two groups according to their R2CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Patients with R2CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 5 were included in group 1 (380 patients), and patients with R2CHA2DS2-VASc < 5 (1296 patients) were included in group 2. The primary outcome was defined as the cumulative events. Each component of cumulative events, such as hematoma, pericardial effusion, pneumothorax, and infection, was also defined as a secondary outcome.

RESULTS

The study's patient population had an average age of 62.9 ± 14 years. Pneumothorax (1.8% vs. 1.3%, p = 0.444), pericardial effusion or tamponade (0.35% vs. 0.2%, p = 0.659), and clinically significant hematoma (1.1% vs. 0.6%, p = 0.376) were comparable between the groups. Infection-related devices and cumulative events classified as primary outcomes were higher in the R2CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 5 group (6.1% vs. 1.2%, p < 0.001; 7.6% vs. 3.2%, p < 0.001, respectively). Modeling analyses showed that the CHA2DS2-VASc score and HT were also independent predictors of device-related infection and cumulative events.

CONCLUSION

In the R2CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 5 groups, infection related to the device system and cumulative events were higher. Patients with an R2CHA2DS2-VASc score of 5 or more and a high CHA2DS2-VASc score should be evaluated more carefully regarding infection and cumulative events before and after the operation.

Comparative Analysis of Anticoagulation Versus Combination Anticoagulation and Antiplatelet Therapy in Atrial Fibrillation Patients Presenting With Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) taking antithrombotic (AT) therapy are at an increased risk of gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). The comparative effect of a combination of anticoagulant (AC) and antiplatelet (AP) versus AC monotherapy on clinical outcomes in patients with AF presenting with GIB is not well characterized. This study compares outcomes in AF patients with GIB on AC alone with those on combination AP and AC therapy, as part of a larger prospective study from 2013 to 2023. One hundred and thirty-seven patients diagnosed with AF who presented with overt GIB were evaluated during their hospitalization, at 1 month and 1 year postdischarge and then annually. The median follow-up of patients was 57 months. Patients in the combination AP + AC therapy group had a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, and coronary/vascular stent placement compared with the AC monotherapy group. No statistically significant differences were noted between the 2 groups in terms of end-of-follow-up mortality, in-hospital mortality, major bleeding, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Cox regression analysis revealed chronic kidney disease [hazard ratio (HR) 2.05, 95% confidence interval (1.04-4.05) ( P = 0.038)] and warfarin use [HR 4.94, 95% confidence interval (1.11-22.09) ( P = 0.037)] to be independent predictors of mortality at 12 months. Antithrombotic therapy in patients with AF who experience GIB should be mainly directed by their cardiovascular needs. Health care providers may explore non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants as alternatives to warfarin for AF patients at risk of GIB, and efforts must be maximized to prevent bleeding in patients with chronic kidney disease.

Performance of Atrial Fibrillation Burden Trends for Stroke Risk Stratification

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke, yet the limitations of conventional monitoring have restricted our understanding of AF burden risk thresholds. Predictive algorithms incorporating continuous AF burden measures may be useful for predicting stroke. This study evaluated the performance of temporal AF burden trends as predictors of stroke from a large cohort with insertable cardiac monitors.

METHODS

Using deidentified data from Optum Clinformatics Data Mart (2007-2019) linked with the Medtronic CareLink insertable cardiac monitor database, we identified patients with an insertable cardiac monitor for AF management (n=1197), suspected AF (n=1611), and cryptogenic stroke (n=2205). Daily AF burden was transformed into simple moving averages, and temporal AF burden trends were defined as the comparison of unique simple moving average pairs. Classification trees were used to predict ischemic stroke, and AF burden significance was quantified using bootstrapped mean variable importance.

RESULTS

Of 5013 patients (age, 69.2±11.7 years; 50% male; CHA2DS2-VASc, 3.7±1.9) who met inclusion criteria, 869 had an ischemic stroke over 2 409 437 days total follow-up. Prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (variable importance, 13.13) was the number 1 predictor of future stroke followed by no prior diagnosis of AF (7.35) and AF burden trends in follow-up (2.59). Temporal proximity of AF and risk of stroke differed by device indication (simple moving averages: AF management, <8 days and suspected AF and cryptogenic stroke, 8-21 days). Together, baseline characteristics and AF burden trends performed optimally for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.73), specificity (0.70), and relative risk (5.00).

CONCLUSIONS

AF burden trends may provide incremental prognostic value as leading indicators of stroke risk compared with conventional schemes.

Apixaban, edoxaban and rivaroxaban but not dabigatran are associated with higher mortality compared to vitamin-K antagonists: A retrospective German claims data analysis

BACKGROUND

Vitamin-K antagonists (VKAs) have widely been replaced by non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs). This includes Austria, Germany and Switzerland, where as VKA, instead of warfarin, the much longer-acting phenprocoumon is used, which was not compared to NOACs in clinical trials.

METHODS

Using administrative data from a large German health insurance, we included all anticoagulation-naïve patients with a first prescription of a NOAC or VKA between 2012 and 2020. We analysed overall survival, major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events, major thromboembolic events and major bleeding.

RESULTS

Overall, 570,137 patients were included (apixaban: 26.9%, dabigatran: 4.6%, edoxaban: 8.8%, rivaroxaban: 39.1% and VKA: 20.7% of these 99.4% phenprocoumon). In the primary analysis using a 1:1 propensity score matching-cohort (PSM-cohort), a significantly higher overall mortality was found for apixaban, edoxaban and rivaroxaban (all p < 0.001) but not for dabigatran (p = 0.13) compared to VKA. In this PSM-cohort, 5-year mortality was 22.7% for apixaban versus 12.7% for VKA, 19.5% for edoxaban versus 11.4% for VKA, 16.0% for rivaroxaban versus 12.3% for VKA (all p < 0.001) and 13.0% for dabigatran versus 12.8% for VKA (p = 0.06). The observed effect was confirmed in sensitivity analyses using un-weighted and three different weighted Fine-Gray regression models on the basis of the entire cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large real-world analysis, apixaban, edoxaban and rivaroxaban, but not dabigatran, were associated with worse survival compared to VKA. These findings, consistent with a few other studies including phenprocoumon, cast profound doubts on the unreflected, general use of NOACs. Randomized trials should assess whether phenprocoumon might actually be superior to NOACs.

Effect of impaired kidney function on outcomes and treatment effects of oral anticoagulant regimes in patients with atrial fibrillation in a real-world registry

BACKGROUND

The impact of impaired kidney function on outcomes and treatment benefits of vitamin-K antagonists (VKA) versus direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) has insufficiently been investigated in randomized controlled studies (RCTs). Most studies and registries are either biased due to incomplete enrolment of consecutive patients in large pharma industry sponsored registries, or due to short recruitment periods or incomplete assessment of important variables in national registries.

METHODS

This study uses data from the Heidelberg Registry of Atrial Fibrillation (HERA-FIB), a retrospective single-center registry of 10,222 consecutive patients with AF presenting to the emergency department of University Hospital of Heidelberg from June 2009 until March 2020. Rates of all-cause mortality, stroke, major bleeding and myocardial infarction (MI) were related to the presence and severity of impaired presenting kidney function, as well as to assigned treatment with VKA vs. DOAC.

RESULTS

The risks for all-cause mortality (HR: 3.26, p<0.001), stroke (HR: 1.58, p<0.001), major bleeding (HR: 2.28, p<0.001) and MI (HR: 2.48, p<0.001) were significantly higher in patients with an eGFR<60 ml/min at admission and increased with decreasing eGFR. After adjustment for variables of CHA2DS2VASc-score, presence of eGFR <60 ml/min remained as an independent predictor for all-cause mortality, major bleeding and MI. The hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality, major bleedings and MI was significantly lower in patients receiving DOAC compared to VKA.

CONCLUSION

Findings from our large real-life registry confirm the data from RCTs and extend our knowledge on the effectiveness and safety of DOACs to subjects that were underrepresented in RCTs.

R2-CHA2DS2-VASc Score for Cardiovascular Event Prediction After Bioprosthetic Valve Replacement - Subanalysis From the BPV-AF Registry

Background

There are few studies evaluating the prognostic prediction method in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients after bioprosthetic valve (BPV) replacement. The R2-CHA2DS2-VASc score is increasingly used for the prediction of cardiovascular (CV) events in patients with AF, device implantation, and acute coronary syndrome. We aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the R2-CHA2DS2-VASc score for future CV events in AF patients after BPV replacement.

Methods and Results

The BPV-AF, an observational, multicenter, prospective registry, enrolled AF patients who underwent BPV replacement. The primary outcome measure was a composite of stroke, systemic embolism, CV events including heart failure requiring hospitalization, and cardiac death. A total of 766 patients was included in the analysis. The mean R2-CHA2DS2-VASc score was 5.7±1.8. Low (scores 0-1), moderate (scores 2-4), and high (scores 5-11) R2-CHA2DS2-VASc score groups consisted of 12 (1.6%), 178 (23.2%), and 576 (75.2%) patients, respectively. The median follow-up period was 491 (interquartile range 393-561) days. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a higher incidence of the composite CV events in the high R2-CHA2DS2-VASc score group (log rank test; P<0.001). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed that the R2-CHA2DS2-VASc score as a continuous variable was an independent predictor of composite CV outcomes (hazard ratio 1.36; 95% confidence interval 1.18-1.55; P<0.001).

Conclusions

The R2-CHA2DS2-VASc score is useful for CV risk stratification in AF patients after BPV replacement.

Predictive Value of CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc and R2-CHADS2 Scores for Short- and Long-Term Major Adverse Cardiac Events in Non-ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND

Non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) carries a poor prognosis, and accurately prognostication has significant clinical importance. In this study, we analyzed the predictive value of the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and R2-CHADS2scores for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with NSTEMI using data from a prospective multicenter registry.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The registry included 440 consecutive patients with NSTEMI and coronary artery disease who underwent successful PCI. Patients were clinically followed for up to 3 years or until the occurrence of MACE. MACE was defined as a composite of all-cause death and nonfatal MI. During the follow-up period, 55 patients (12.5%) experienced MACE. Risk analysis of MACE occurrence, adjusted for the multivariable model, demonstrated a significant increase in risk with higher CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and R2-CHADS2scores. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a higher incidence of MACE in patients with higher CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and R2-CHADS2scores, both in the short- and long-term periods.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with NSTEMI and higher CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and R2-CHADS2scores displayed a greater incidence of MACE.

Comorbidity and Medication Trends in Chronic Kidney Disease and Incident Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with an increased incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). Also, patients with AF are prone to adverse kidney outcomes. We examined comorbidities and medication use in patients with CKD and incident AF.

METHODS

The Finnish AntiCoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation (FinACAF) is a nationwide retrospective register-linkage study including data from 168,233 patients with incident AF from 2007 to 2018, with laboratory data from 2010 onwards. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was available for 124,936 patients. The cohort was divided into 5 CKD stages with separate groups for dialysis and kidney transplantation.

RESULTS

At AF diagnosis eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 was found in 27%, while 318 (0.3%) patients were on dialysis, and 188 (0.2%) had a functioning kidney transplant. Lowering eGFR yielded more comorbidities and medications. During 2010-2018 in patients with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and diabetes increased from 82 to 88%, from 50 to 66% and from 25 to 33%, respectively (<0.001). Throughout the observation period, lipid-lowering medication was underused.

CONCLUSION

More than one-fourth of patients with incident AF also had CKD stage 3-5 (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2). Both comorbidities and medication use increased with worsening kidney function. Prevalence of major cardiovascular (CV) risk factors increased during 2010-2018, but the use of survival-affecting medications, such as lipid-lowering medication, was suboptimal at all stages of CKD. More attention should be given to the optimal treatment of risk factors in this high CV risk population.

AF-React study: Prevalence of thrombotic events in patients with atrial fibrillation receiving NOACs - real-world data analysis from northern Portugal primary healthcare

Introduction

Anticoagulation is recommended for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The guidelines suggest non-vitamin K antagonist anticoagulants (NOACs) as the primary therapy for anticoagulation in AF. Several patient-related factors increase the risk of thrombotic events: elderly individuals, a previous history of stroke, and chronic kidney disease. This study aims to determine the association between NOACs and other patient variables in AF and the occurrence of thrombotic events.

Methods

The database included all adults with the code K78 (ICPC-2 code for AF) who received clinical care in Northern Portugal's Primary Health Care between January 2016 and December 2018 and were dispensed the same NOAC at the pharmacy.

Results

The results indicate that 10.2% of AF patients on NOAC anticoagulation experienced a stroke. Furthermore, patients treated with apixaban and dabigatran had higher odds of experiencing a stroke compared to those treated with rivaroxaban. Among patients with the same age, gender, and CHA2DS2Vasc Score, apixaban was significantly associated with a higher likelihood of thrombotic events than rivaroxaban.

Discussion

These results have not been previously reported in studies with real-world data; therefore, a more detailed analysis should be conducted to enhance the validity of these findings.

Simple scores to predict 1-year mortality in atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Traditional scores as CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc are suitable for predicting stroke and systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and have shown to be also associated with mortality. Other more complex scores have been recommended for survival prediction. The purpose of our analysis was to test the performance of different clinical scores in predicting 1-year mortality in AF patients.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc scores were calculated for AF patients of the BLITZ-AF register and compared to R2-CHADS2, R2-CHA2DS2-Vasc and CHA2DS2VASc-RAF scores in predicting 1-year survival. Scores including renal function were calculated both with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and creatinine clearance.

RESULTS

One-year vital status (1960 alive and 199 dead) was available in 2159 patients. Receiver-operating characteristic curves displayed an association of each score to all-cause mortality, with R2(ClCrea)-CHADS2 being the best [area under the curve (AUC) 0.734]. Differences among the AUCs of the eight scores were not so evident, and a significant difference was found only between R2(ClCrea)-CHADS2 and CHADS2, CHA2DS2VASc, (ClCrea)-CHA2DS2-VASC-RAF.All the scores showed a similar performance for cardiovascular (CV) mortality, with CHA2DS2VASc-RAF being the best (AUC 0.757), with a significant difference with respect to CHADS2, CHA2DS2VASc, and (ClCrea)CHA2DS2Vasc-RAF.

CONCLUSIONS

More complex scores, even if with better statistical performance, do not show a clinically relevant higher capability to discriminate alive or dead patients at 12 months. The classical and well known CHA2DS2VASc score, which is routinely used all around the world, has a high sensitivity in predicting all-cause mortality (AUC 0.695; Sensit. 80.4%) and CV mortality (AUC 0.691; Sensit. 80.0%).

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

http://links.lww.com/JCM/A632.

Anticoagulation for Atrial Fibrillation: A Review of Current Literature and Views

Atrial fibrillation is a common supraventricular tachyarrhythmia with uncoordinated atrial activation and ineffective atrial contraction. This leads to an increased risk of atrial thrombi, most commonly in the left atrial appendage, and increased risks of embolic strokes and/or peripheral thromboembolism. It is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. To meet the concerns of thrombi and stroke, anticoagulation has been the mainstay for prevention and treatment thereof. Historically, anticoagulation involved the use of aspirin or vitamin K antagonists, mainly warfarin. Since early 2010s, direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) including dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban have been introduced and approved for anticoagulation of atrial fibrillation. DOACs demonstrated a dramatic reduction in the rate of intracranial hemorrhage as compared to warfarin, and offer the advantages of absolution of monitoring therefore avoid the risk of hemorrhages in the context of narrow therapeutic window and under-treatment characteristic of warfarin, particularly in high-risk patients. One major concern and disadvantage for DOACs was lack of reversal agents, which have largely been ameliorated by the approval of Idarucizumab for dabigatran and Andexanet alfa for both apixaban and rivaroxaban, with Ciraparantag as a universal reversal agent for all DOACs undergoing Fast-Track Review from FDA. In this article, we will be providing a broad review of anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation with a focus on risk stratification schemes and anticoagulation agents (warfarin, aspirin, DOACs) including special clinical considerations.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate and the risk of stroke in individuals with diabetes mellitus and atrial fibrillation insight from a large contemporary population study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with increased risk of embolic complications in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Impaired renal function (IRF) increases the risk of stroke as well, but this finding is not consistent among all studies. Our aim was to assess the incidence rates and risk of ischemic stroke and mortality by baseline Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) levels Among individuals with AF and DM.

METHODS

A prospective, historical cohort study using the Clalit Health Services electronic medical records database. Among patients with AF and DM, we compared three groups according to eGFR levels: eGFR ≥ 60, between 30 and 60, and ≤ 30 (mL/min/1.73m2).

RESULTS

A total of 17,567 cases were included in the final analysis; of them, 11,013 (62.7%) had eGFR ≥ 60, 4930 (28%) had eGFR between 30 and 60, and 1624 (9.24%) with eGFR ≤ 30. The incidence of stroke per 100 person-years in the three study groups was: 1.88, 2.69, and 3.34, respectively (p < 0.001). IRF was associated with increased risk of stroke in univariate analysis, but not after multivariate adjustment (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) 0.96 {95%CI; 0.74-1.25} for eGFR 30-60 and 0.96 {95%CI; 0.60-1.55} for eGFR ≤ 30). Mortality per 100 person-years was 10.78, 21.49, and 41.55, respectively (p < 0.001). IRF was associated with increased mortality risk in univariate analysis, as well as in multivariate analysis (AHR 1.08 {95%CI; 0.98-1.18} for eGFR 30-60, and 1.59 {95%CI; 1.37-1.85} for eGFR ≤ 30.

CONCLUSION

In patients with NVAF and DM, IRF was not associated with an increased risk of stroke, but severe IRF (eGFR ≤ 30) was associated with increased mortality risk.

Anticoagulation in chronic kidney disease: current status and future perspectives

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is being diagnosed increasingly worldwide. It is often identified in individuals with comorbidities, which may increase the already heightened risk of thrombosis and hemorrhage associated with CKD. Oral anticoagulation is an effective means of reducing rates of ischemic stroke and systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation and minimizes the morbidity and mortality caused by venous thromboembolic disease. Despite the proven benefits in the majority of patients, these have not been so clearly realized in patients with CKD due to the precarious balance between bleeding and thromboembolic complications. In this review, the current status of anticoagulant utilization in CKD is examined, and some practical recommendations are put forward to assist in the decision-making process of safely anticoagulating patients with CKD diagnosed with atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism.

Management of edoxaban therapy and clinical outcomes in patients undergoing major or nonmajor surgery: a subanalysis of the EMIT-AF/VTE study

BACKGROUND

Optimising periprocedural management of direct oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation on chronic treatment undergoing major surgeries is an important aspect of balancing the risk of surgery-related bleeding with the risk of thromboembolic events, which may vary by surgery type.

METHODS

This subanalysis of the prospective EMIT-AF/VTE programme assessed periprocedural-edoxaban management, according to physicians' decisions, and bleeding and thromboembolic event rates in patients who underwent major vs. nonmajor surgeries. Edoxaban interruption and clinical outcomes were compared between major vs. nonmajor surgeries and between renal function subgroups (creatinine clearance [CrCL] ≤ 50 mL/min vs. > 50 mL/min).

RESULTS

We included 276 major and 512 nonmajor surgeries. The median pre- and postprocedural duration of edoxaban interruption in major vs. nonmajor surgeries was 4 vs. 1 days, whereas median duration of interruption for those with preprocedural-only and postprocedural-only interruption was 2 vs. 1 days and 2 vs. 0 days, respectively (P < 0.0001). Rates of all bleeding and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding were numerically higher in major vs. nonmajor surgeries. Event rates (number of events per 100 surgeries) were low overall (< 6 events per 100 surgeries), independent of renal function subgroups.

CONCLUSION

In this subanalysis of the EMIT-AF/VTE programme, periprocedural-edoxaban interruption was significantly longer in patients undergoing major vs. nonmajor surgery. This clinician-driven approach was associated with low rates of bleeding and thromboembolic events following both major and nonmajor surgeries.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02950168, registered October 31, 2016; NCT02951039, registered November 1, 2016.

New score for predicting thromboembolic events in patients with atrial fibrillation using direct oral anticoagulants

Determinants of thrombotic events remain uncertain in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). Our aim was to identify risk factors associated with thromboembolism in patients with at atrial fibrillation on DOACs and to construct and externally validate a predictive model that would provide a validated tool for clinical assessment of thromboembolism. In the development cohort, prediction model was built by logistic regression, the area under the curve (AUC), and Nomogram. External validation and calibration of the model using AUC and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. This national multicenter retrospective study included 3263 patients with atrial fibrillation treated with DOACs. The development cohort consisted of 2390 patients from three centers and the external validation cohort consisted of 873 patients from 13 centers. Multifactorial analysis showed that heavy drinking, hypertension, prior stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), cerebral infarction during hospitalization were independent risk factors for thromboembolism. The Alfalfa-TE risk score was constructed using these four factors (AUC = 0.84), and in the external validation cohort, the model showed good discriminatory power (AUC = 0.74) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P value of 0.649). Based on four factors, we derived and externally validated a predictive model for thromboembolism with DOACs in patients with atrial fibrillation (Alfalfa-TE risk score). The model has good predictive value and may be an effective tool to help reduce the occurrence of thromboembolism in patients with DOACs.

Efficacy and safety of patients with chronic kidney disease undergoing left atrial appendage closure for atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

The relative safety and efficacy of left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) for atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have not been well defined. To evaluate the results in this cohort, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

METHODS

We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases from inception to January 2023 for all relevant studies. Our inclusion criteria were met by twelve observational studies that included 61324 patients altogether.

RESULTS

Compared with no CKD group, in-hospital mortality (OR: 2.84, 95% CI: 2.12-3.81, p<0.01, I2 = 0%), acute kidney injury (AKI) (OR: 4.39,95% CI:4.00-4.83, P<0.01, I2 = 3%), major bleeding events (OR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.29-1.60, p<0.01 I2 = 0%), and pericardial effusion/tamponade (OR 1.30; 95% CI 1.13-1.51, p < 0.01; I2 = 0%) were more common in the CKD group, especially in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). No significant difference was observed in the occurrence of stroke (OR: 1.24, 95% CI: 0.86-1.78, P = 0.25, I2 = 0%), LAAC success rates (OR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.33-3.16, p = 0.97, I2 = 58%) and vascular access complications (OR: 1.13, 95% CI: 0.91-1.39, p = 0.28, I2 = 0%) between the two groups. During the follow-up, there was no difference in the risk of stroke between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

CKD patients who receive LAAC have a greater risk of in-hospital mortality, AKI, pericardial effusion/tamponade, and major bleeding events than those without CKD, especially in patients with ESRD. No significant difference in the risk of stroke was found in the long-term follow-up after LAAC between the two groups, demonstrating a similar efficacy of LAAC to prevent stroke in CKD patients.

Left atrial appendage angiography for stroke risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

The current risk stratification schemes for stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are insufficient for an accurate assessment of stroke risk.

AIMS

This study evaluates the association between the mechanical function of the left atrial appendage (LAA), as assessed by angiography, and the risk of stroke.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study to assess the mechanical function of the LAA by measuring the left atrial appendage ejection fraction (LAAEF) and grading the contrast retention (CR) using angiography.

RESULTS

A total of 746 patients referred for a left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) procedure with (n=151; stroke group) or without (n=595; control group) a history of stroke were included in the analysis. LAAEF was significantly lower (14% [9-19] vs 20% [12-33]; p<0.001) and grade 3 CR was more common (66.9% vs 33.9%; p<0.001) in patients with a history of stroke. Multivariable analysis showed that CR was independently associated with stroke in patients with AF (grade 2 vs grade 1=7.29; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.84-21.65; p<0.001; grade 3 vs grade 1=16.45; 95% CI: 6.16-51.02; p<0.001). The receiver operating characteristics curve demonstrated that CR identified patients with stroke more accurately than the CHA2D-VASc score (C-statistic 0.712 vs 0.512; p<0.001), and the combination of CR and the CHA2DS2-VASc score provided the best performance (C-statistic 0.871 vs 0.829 [CHA2DS2-VASc score alone]; p=0.048) Conclusions: Impaired mechanical function of the LAA, indicated by a low LAAEF and CR, is associated with a history of stroke in patients with AF. Assessment of CR using LAA angiography helps improve the stratification scheme for stroke risk prediction.

Mechanisms and Prediction of Ischemic Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation Patients

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia in adults worldwide and represents an important burden for patients, physicians, and healthcare systems. AF is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity, due to the disease itself and its specific complications, such as the increased risk of stroke and thromboembolic events associated with AF. The temporal relation between AF episodes and stroke is nonetheless incompletely understood. The factors associated with an increased thromboembolic risk remain unclear, as well as the stroke risk stratification. Therefore, in this review, we intend to expose the mechanisms and physiopathology leading to intracardiac thrombus formation and stroke in AF patients, together with the evidence supporting the causal hypothesis. We also expose the risk factors associated with increased risk of stroke, the current different risk stratification tools as well as future prospects for improving this risk stratification.

Serum Fibrinogen and Renal Dysfunction as Important Predictors of Left Atrial Thrombosis in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

As has been shown previously, patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who have left atrial thrombus (LAT) also have elevated plasma concentrations of fibrinogen. In this study, we tried to determine if this is the consequence of a genetic trait and whether elevated concentrations of fibrinogen could be used to predict LAT in patients with AF.

METHODS

We recruited 181 consecutive patients scheduled for pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) or direct current cardioversion. The primary endpoint was the presence of LAT on transesophageal echocardiography (TOE). We recorded routine clinical and biochemical data as well as the polymorphism type of the fibrinogen gene for the β chain. To control potentially interfering variables, we performed propensity score matching (PSM). Multivariable and univariable logistic regression models (LRM) were computed using the CHA2DS2-Vasc score, the fibrinogen concentration and creatinine clearance as estimated by the Cockcroft-Gault equation.

RESULTS

60 of 181 patients had LAT as detected by TOE. As expected, patients with LAT had significantly higher concentrations of fibrinogen (3.9 vs. 3.6 g/L); p = 0.01 in the unadjusted analysis. After performing PSM, there were no statistically significant differences between the groups, except for creatinine clearance (79.9 vs. 96.8 mL/min); p = 0.01. There were also no differences regarding the -455 G/A βfibrinogen polymorphism distribution between the two groups. After constructing the LRM, we found no performance enhancement for the CHA2DS2-Vasc score by adding the fibrinogen concentration or creatinine clearance alone, but when all three variables were put together, there was a significant improvement in LAT prediction (AUC 0.64 vs. 0.72), p = 0.026.

CONCLUSION

Our study found no evidence of elevated levels of circulating fibrinogen in patients with LAT or a connection between those levels and the A/A and A positive polymorphism. When used together with renal function markers such as creatinine clearance, plasma fibrinogen concentrations can provide additional power to the CHA2DS2-Vasc score for predicting LAT.

Albuminuria improves R2CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting mortality in high cardiovascular risk population

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score estimates the risk of cardioembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It also predicts vascular events and death in different clinical settings, even in the absence of AF. The R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, obtained by adding the glomerular filtration rate to CHA₂DS₂-VASc, shows a higher prediction ability for new events and all-cause mortality. The present study aims to assess whether the addition of albuminuria to R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score further improves its discrimination ability in predicting all-cause mortality in a sample of high cardiovascular risk population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prospective, monocentric, observational study, evaluating a subset of 737 subjects consecutively undergoing to coronary angiography at Coronary Unit of Scientific Institute "Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza" from June 2016 to December 2018. The presence of albuminuria was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (p < 0.0001). Any one-point increase of Alb-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score increased mortality of about 1.5-fold (adjusted HR 1.49; 95%CI: 1.37-1.63; p < 0.0001). Considering tertiles of Alb-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc, the third tertile showed a 9.5-fold increased risk of mortality (HR 9.52; 95% CI: 5.15-17.60, p < 0.001). Comparing the two scores, the Alb-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (C-statistic = 0.751; 95%CI: 0.69-0.81) outperformed the R₂-CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (C-statistic = 0.736; 95%CI: 0.68-0.961) in predicting mortality (delta C-statistic = 0.015; 95%CI: 0.001-0.029). The better prediction ability of the Alb-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was also proven by an IDI of 0.024 (p < 0.0001) and a relative IDI of 24.11% (p < 0.0001), with an NRI = 0.608 (p < 0.00001).

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of albuminuria to R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc significantly and independently predicts the risk of all-cause mortality in a sample of high CV risk patients. Moreover, Alb-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc outperforms R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc.

Value of ATRIA stroke risk score in predicting atrial high-rate episodes: A comparison of six different risk scores

OBJECTIVES

Atrial high-rate episodes (AHRE) are asymptomatic atrial tachy-arrhythmias detected through continuous monitoring with a cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED). AHRE's have been associated with increased risks of developing clinically manifested atrial fibrillation (AF), thromboembolism, cardiovascular events, and mortality. Several variables has been researched and identified to predict AHRE development. The aim of this study, which compared the six frequently-used scoring systems for thromboembolic risk in AF (CHA2 DS2 -VASc, mC2 HEST, HAT2 CH2 , R2 -CHADS2 , R2 -CHA2 DS2 -VASc, and ATRIA) in terms of their prognostic power in predicting AHRE.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included 174 patients with CIED's. The study population was divided into two groups according to presence of AHRE: patients with AHRE (+) and patients without AHRE (-). Thereafter, patients baseline characteristics and scoring systems were analyzed for prediction of AHRE.

RESULTS

The distribution of patients' baseline characteristics and scoring systems according to presence of AHRE was evaluated. Furthermore, ROC curve analyses of the stroke risk scoring systems have been investigated in terms of predicting the development of AHREs. ATRIA, which predicted AHRE with a specificity of 92% and sensitivity of 37.5% for ATRIA values of >6, performed better than other scoring systems in predicting AHRE (AUC: 0.700, 0.626-0.767 95% confidence interval (CI), p = .004) CONCLUSION: AHRE is common in patients with a CIED. In this context, several risk scoring systems have been used to predict the development of AHRE in patients with a CIED. This study's findings revealed that The ATRIA stroke risk scoring system performed better than other commonly used risk scoring systems in predicting AHRE.

Ischemic stroke risk factors not included in the CHADS-VASC score in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

In patients with atrial fibrillation, the CHA2DS2-VASC score guides stroke prevention using anticoagulants, but it is an imperfect score. Other potential risk factors such as renal failure, the type of atrial fibrillation, active smoking, cancer, sleep apnea or systemic inflammation have less well been investigated.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of these factors on ischemic stroke risk in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

On a population of 248 patients (124 patients with acute ischemic stroke and 124 controls), we performed a logistic regression to assess the impact of multiple non-classic risk factors for the prediction of acute ischemic stroke. Their impact on mortality was assessed by performing a survival analysis.

RESULTS

A high CHA2DS2-VASc score (OR 1.75; 95% CI 1.13-2.70; p = 0.032), treatment with anticoagulants (OR 0.19; 95% CI 0.07-0.51; p < 0.001) and permanent atrial fibrillation (OR 6.31; 95% CI 2.46-16.19; p < 0.001) were independently associated with acute ischemic stroke. Renal failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease predicted a higher mortality. After adjusting for age, sex, the CHA2DS2-VASc score and the use of anticoagulants, the only risk factor predictive for acute ischemic stroke was the permanent type of AF (OR: 8.0 [95% CI 2.5-25.5], p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The CHA2DS2-VASc score, the absence of anticoagulants and the permanent type of atrial fibrillation were the main predictive factors for the occurrence of acute ischemic stroke. Larger studies are necessary for conclusive results about other factors.

Should atrial fibrillation be considered a vascular disease? The need for a comprehensive vascular approach

INTRODUCTION

Atrial fibrillation (AF) cannot be considered an isolated disease. Patients with AF should be managed using a comprehensive approach that is not limited to stroke prevention.

AREAS COVERED

In this manuscript, the potential role of AF as a vascular disease that is managed as part of a holistic approach was reviewed.

EXPERT OPINION

The residual risk of stroke in patients with AF reaches 1-2% annually, despite appropriate anticoagulation therapy. Additionally, patients with AF may develop cognitive impairment through stroke-independent pathways. Furthermore, patients with AF may have a higher risk of developing atherosclerotic vascular disease in various vascular beds and chronic kidney disease; conversely, patients with atherosclerotic disease may have an increased risk of developing AF. AF should be considered a truly systemic vascular disease, since it brings together several hemodynamic and systemic changes, including inflammation, oxidative stress, activation of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone and sympathetic systems, as well as a prothrombotic state and endothelial dysfunction. In this regard, patients with AF should be treated based on a holistic approach that is not limited to oral anticoagulation but includes complete vascular protection.

Development and Validation of a Predictive Risk Algorithm for Bleeding in Individuals on Long-term Hemodialysis: An International Prospective Cohort Study (BLEED-HD)

Background

Individuals with kidney disease are at a high risk of bleeding and as such tools that identify those at highest risk may aid mitigation strategies.

Objective

We set out to develop and validate a prediction equation (BLEED-HD) to identify patients on maintenance hemodialysis at high risk of bleeding.

Design

International prospective cohort study (development); retrospective cohort study (validation).

Settings

Development: 15 countries (Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study [DOPPS] phase 2-6 from 2002 to 2018); Validation: Ontario, Canada.

Patients

Development: 53 147 patients; Validation: 19 318 patients.

Measurements

Hospitalization for a bleeding event.

Methods

Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

Among the DOPPS cohort (mean age, 63.7 years; female, 39.7%), a bleeding event occurred in 2773 patients (5.2%, event rate 32 per 1000 person-years), with a median follow-up of 1.6 (interquartile range [IQR], 0.9-2.1) years. BLEED-HD included 6 variables: age, sex, country, previous gastrointestinal bleeding, prosthetic heart valve, and vitamin K antagonist use. The observed 3-year probability of bleeding by deciles of risk ranged from 2.2% to 10.8%. Model discrimination was low to moderate (c-statistic = 0.65) with excellent calibration (Brier score range = 0.036-0.095). Discrimination and calibration of BLEED-HD were similar in an external validation of 19 318 patients from Ontario, Canada. Compared to existing bleeding scores, BLEED-HD demonstrated better discrimination and calibration (c-statistic: HEMORRHAGE = 0.59, HAS-BLED = 0.59, and ATRIA = 0.57, c-stat difference, net reclassification index [NRI], and integrated discrimination index [IDI] all P value <.0001).

Limitations

Dialysis procedure anticoagulation was not available; validation cohort was considerably older than the development cohort.

Conclusion

In patients on maintenance hemodialysis, BLEED-HD is a simple risk equation that may be more applicable than existing risk tools in predicting the risk of bleeding in this high-risk population.

Net clinical benefit of oral anticoagulants in Korean atrial fibrillation patients with low to intermediate stroke risk: A report from the Clinical Survey on Stroke Prevention in patients with Atrial Fibrillation (CS-SPAF)

Background

The balance of stroke risk reduction and potential bleeding risk associated with antithrombotic treatment (ATT) remains unclear in atrial fibrillation (AF) at non-gender CHA2DS2-VASc scores 0-1. A net clinical benefit (NCB) analysis of ATT may guide stroke prevention strategies in AF with non-gender CHA2DS2-VASc scores 0-1.

Methods

This multi-center cohort study evaluated the clinical outcomes of treatment with a single antiplatelet (SAPT), vitamin K antagonist (VKA), and non-VKA oral anticoagulant (NOAC) in non-gender CHA2DS2-VASc score 0-1 and further stratified by biomarker-based ABCD score (Age [≥60 years], B-type natriuretic peptide [BNP] or N-terminal pro-BNP [≥300 pg/mL], creatinine clearance [<50 mL/min], and dimension of the left atrium [≥45 mm]). The primary outcome was the NCB of ATT, including composite thrombotic events (ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, and myocardial infarction) and major bleeding events.

Results

We included 2465 patients (age 56.2 ± 9.5 years; female 27.0%) followed-up for 4.0 ± 2.8 years, of whom 661 (26.8%) were treated with SAPT; 423 (17.2%) with VKA; and 1040 (42.2%) with NOAC. With detailed risk stratification using the ABCD score, NOAC showed a significant positive NCB compared with the other ATTs (SAPT vs. NOAC, NCB 2.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37-4.66; VKA vs. NOAC, NCB 2.38, 95% CI 0.56-5.40) in ABCD score ≥1. ATT failed to show a positive NCB in patients with truly low stroke risk (ABCD score = 0).

Conclusions

In the Korean AF cohort at non-gender CHA2DS2-VASc scores 0-1, NOAC showed significant NCB advantages over VKA or SAPT with ABCD score ≥1.

Atrial high-rate episodes intensify R2CHA2DS2-VASc score for prognostic stratification in pacemaker patients

Patients with device detected atrial high-rate episodes (AHRE) have an increased risk of MACE. The R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc, CHADS₂, R₂CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score have been investigated for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in different groups of patients. We aimed to evaluate the R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score in combination with AHRE ≥ 6 min for predicting MACE in patients with dual-chamber PPM but no prior atrial fibrillation (AF). We retrospectively enrolled 376 consecutive patients undergoing dual-chamber PPM implantation and no prior AF. The primary endpoint was subsequent MACE. For all patients in the cohort, CHADS₂, R₂CHADS₂, CHA₂DS₂-VASc, R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores and AHRE ≥ or < 6 min were determined. AHRE was recorded as a heart rate > 175 bpm (Medtronic) or > 200 bpm (Biotronik) lasting ≥ 30 s. Multivariate Cox regression analysis with time-dependent covariates was used to determine the independent predictors of MACE. ROC-AUC analysis was performed for CHADS₂, R₂CHADS₂, CHA₂DS₂-VASc, and R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores and then adding AHRE ≥ 6 min to the four scores. The median age was 77 years, and 107 patients (28.5%) developed AHRE ≥ 6 min. After a median follow-up of 32 months, 46 (12.2%) MACE occurred. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (HR, 1.485; 95% CI, 1.212-1.818; p < 0.001) and AHRE ≥ 6 min (HR, 2.125; 95% CI, 1.162-3.887; p = 0.014) were independent predictors for MACE. The optimal R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score cutoff value was 4.5 (set at ≥ 5), with the highest Youden index (AUC, 0.770; 95% CI, 0.709-0.831; p < 0.001). ROC-AUC analysis of the four risk scores separately combined with AHRE ≥ 6 min all showed better discriminatory power than the four scores alone (All Z-statistic p < 0.05). In patients with PPM who develop AHRE ≥ 6 min, it is crucial to perform risk assessment with either four scores to further stratify risk for MACE.

ANMCO-SIMEU consensus document: appropriate management of atrial fibrillation in the emergency department

Atrial fibrillation (AF) accounts for 2% of the total presentations to the emergency department (ED) and represents the most frequent arrhythmic cause for hospitalization. It steadily increases the risk of thromboembolic events and is often associated with several comorbidities that negatively affect patient's quality of life and prognosis. AF has a considerable impact on healthcare resources, making the promotion of an adequate and coordinated management of this arrhythmia necessary in order to avoid clinical complications and to implement the adoption of appropriate technological and pharmacological treatment options. AF management varies across regions and hospitals and there is also heterogeneity in the use of anticoagulation and electric cardioversion, with limited use of direct oral anticoagulants. The ED represents the first access point for early management of patients with AF. The appropriate management of this arrhythmia in the acute setting has a great impact on improving patient's quality of life and outcomes as well as on rationalization of the financial resources related to the clinical course of AF. Therefore, physicians should provide a well-structured clinical and diagnostic pathway for patients with AF who are admitted to the ED. This should be based on a tight and propositional collaboration among several specialists, i.e. the ED physician, cardiologist, internal medicine physician, anesthesiologist. The aim of this ANMCO-SIMEU consensus document is to provide shared recommendations for promoting an integrated, accurate, and up-to-date management of patients with AF admitted to the ED or Cardiology Department, in order to make it homogeneous across the national territory.

Increased major bleeding incidence in atrial fibrillation patients with apixaban: a review of Japanese post-marketing surveillance studies of direct oral anticoagulants

Large-scaled post-marketing surveillance studies (PMSSs) of 4 direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) for stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) were conducted since 2011 in Japan, and the results of the last one have recently been published. Each reported a more than acceptable ischemic stroke prevention. The major bleeding rates were also acceptably low and comparable to each other in the PMSSs of dabigatran (J-dabigatran), rivaroxaban (XAPASS), and edoxaban (ETNA-AF-Japan). However, the incidence in PMSS of apixaban (STANDARD) was more than double the others. This finding appeared to contradict the globally accepted theory that apixaban is less likely than other DOACs to cause bleeding events. Possible responsible mechanisms included (1) the age and kidney function, (2) concomitant antiplatelet therapy, (3) drug actions, (4) follow-up duration, and (5) dose reduction criteria. Similarities in the clinical background shared by the 4 different PMSSs' participants and knowledge from previous studies did not support a dominant contribution of any of those former 4 factors to the increased major bleeding incidence in STANDARD. A possibility of the 5th factor was then examined. An estimated calculation we created showed that apixaban's dose reduction criteria was strict enough to considerably reduce the opportunity for participants to take its reduced rather than standard dose. We then successfully simulated how the "strict" dose reduction criteria would have increased the bleeding event rates under DOAC therapy. The discussion in this review may therefore raise a question about the validity of the current dose reduction criteria of apixaban for Japanese AF patients.

R2CHA2DS2-VA predicts the cardiovascular risk after carotid endarterectomy

OBJECTIVE

R2CHA2DS2-VA score has been used to predict short and long-term outcomes in many cardiovascular diseases. This study aims to validate the R2CHA2DS2-VA score as a long-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) predictor after CEA. Secondary outcomes were also assessed regarding the incidence of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), major adverse limb events (MALE), and acute heart failure (AHF).

METHODS

From January 2012 to December 2021, patients (n= 205) from a Portuguese tertiary care and referral center that underwent CEA with regional anesthesia (RA) for carotid stenosis were selected from a previously collected prospective database, and a post-hoc analysis was performed. Demographics and comorbidities were registered. Clinical adverse events were assessed 30-days after the procedure and in the subsequent long-term surveillance period. Statistical analysis was performed by the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Of the patients enrolled, 78.5% were males with a mean age of 70.44 ± 8.9 years. Higher scores of R2CHA2DS2-VA were associated with long-term MACE (adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) 1.390; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.173-1.647) and mortality (aHR 1.295; 95% CI 1.08-1.545) CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated the potential of the R2CHA2DS2-VA score to predict long-term outcomes such as AMI, AHF, MACE, and all-cause mortality in a population of patients submitted to carotid endarterectomy.

Association of Kidney Function With Risk of Adverse Effects of Therapies for Atrial Fibrillation

Introduction

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is treated with rate control medications, antiarrhythmic medications, as well as anticoagulation and procedures, each of which have associated risks. We aimed to evaluate the association of CKD status with the risks of adverse effects after initiation of AF therapies.

Methods

This was a cohort study of community-based adults who newly initiated rate control medications, antiarrhythmic medications, warfarin, direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) or received AF procedures in the 1 year after diagnosis of AF. Baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using outpatient serum creatinine measures. Adverse effects within 1 year related to each AF therapy or within 1 month of an AF procedure were ascertained from vital sign databases, electrocardiograms (ECGs), and administrative codes. Fine-Gray hazard models were used to study the association of eGFR categories with risk of adverse effects for each AF therapy.

Results

Among 115,564 patients with incident AF, lower eGFR (vs. eGFR ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m²) was significantly associated with higher adjusted risk of adverse effects after initiation of rate control therapies (most commonly hypotension and bradycardia) as follows: eGFR 45-59 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.22), 30-44 (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06-1.25), and 15-29 (HR 1.29, 95% CI: 1.12-1.47) ml/min per 1.73 m². Lower eGFR was associated with higher adjusted risk of adverse effects (most commonly prolonged QRS and QTc intervals) after initiation of an antiarrhythmic medication (vs. eGFR >60 ml/min per 1.73 m²) as follows: eGFR 45-59 (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01-1.23) and eGFR<15 (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.01-2.01) ml/min per 1.73 m².

Conclusion

There was a graded association between lower eGFR and risk of major bleeding with warfarin use, with the greatest risk among those with eGFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m² (HR of 2.93, 95% CI 1.99-4.30). There was no association of eGFR with major bleeding in patients receiving DOACs. Rates of adverse effects within 1 month of an AF procedure were low among patients with (n = 18) and without (n = 41) CKD and was underpowered for further analyses. In conclusion, lower eGFR was associated with significantly higher risks of adverse effects after initiation of commonly used therapies to treat AF. These data may help inform the complex therapeutic decisions in patients with CKD and AF.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2023 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2022 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. The American Heart Association strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) publications, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Improving risk prediction for death, stroke and bleeding in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

The objectives of this study were to compare the GARFIELD Refitted model and CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc/HAS-BLED risk scores with the new model from the COOL-AF registry for all-cause death, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism (SSE) and major bleeding in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

Patients with non-valvular AF in the nationwide COOL-AF registry were studied. Patients were enrolled from 27 hospitals in Thailand during 2014-2017. Main outcomes were all-cause mortality, SSE and major bleeding. Predictive models of the three outcomes were developed from the variables in the multivariable Cox-proportional Hazard model. Predictive values of the models were evaluated by C-statistics, calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA). The new COOL-AF models were compared with the GARFIELD Refitted models and CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc model for all-cause mortality, SSE/HAS-BLED model for major bleeding.

RESULTS

A total of 3405 patients were enrolled. The C-statistics for the COOL-AF models were 0.727 (0.712-0.742), 0.708 (0.693-0.724) and 0.706 (0.690-0.721) for all-cause mortality, SSE and major bleeding, respectively. Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted probability the observed outcomes for the COOL-AF models with a calibration slope of 0.94-0.99. The predictive ability remains preserved after the internal validation with bootstraps and optimism (bias) correction. The COOL-AF predictive models tended to be superior to the GARFIELD Refitted, CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc and HAS-BLED models.

CONCLUSION

The COOL-AF predictive models for all-cause mortality, SSE and major bleeding in Asian patients with AF had a good predictive ability. The COOL-AF model for all-cause mortality was superior to the GARFIELD Refitted and CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc model.

Residual stroke risk despite oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation

Background

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) reduces the risk of thromboembolic events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF); however, thromboembolism (TE) still can occur despite OAC. Factors associated with residual risk for stroke, systemic embolism, or transient ischemic attack events despite OAC have not been well described.

Objective

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the residual risk of thromboembolic events in patients with AF despite OAC.

Methods

A total of 18,955 patients were analyzed in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF I and II) using multivariable Cox proportional hazard modeling. Mean age was 72 ± 10.7, and 42% were women. There were 451 outcome events.

Results

The risk of TE despite OAC increased with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score: 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.92) events per 100 patient-years for CHA₂DS₂-VASc score <4 vs 2.01 (95% CI 1.81-2.24) events per 100-patient years for CHA₂DS₂-VASc score >4. Factors associated with increased risk were previous stroke or transient ischemic attack (hazard ratio [HR] 2.87; 95% CI 2.30-3.59; P <.001), female sex (HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.24-1.86; P <.001), hypertension (HR 1.50; 95% CI 1.09-2.06; P = .01), and permanent AF (HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.12-1.94; P = .001). When transient ischemic attack was excluded, the results were similar, but permanent AF was no longer significantly associated with thromboembolic events.

Conclusion

Patients with AF have a residual risk of TE with increasing CHA₂DS₂-VASc score despite OAC. Key risk markers include previous stroke/transient ischemic attack, female sex, hypertension, and permanent AF.

CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHA2DS2-VASc scores predict mortality in high cardiovascular risk population

BACKGROUND

The CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score, widely used to estimate cardioembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), appears to be useful also in predicting vascular adverse events and death in different sets of patients without AF. The R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score, which includes renal impairment, allows a better prediction of death and thromboembolism in patients without AF. The aims of our study were to assess, in a large sample of patients at high cardiovascular (CV) risk, (i) the correlation between CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc and R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc with all-cause mortality, and (ii) to compare the performances of CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc and R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc in predicting all-cause mortality.

METHODS

In this single-centre prospective observational study, conducted at the Research Hospital 'Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza' between June 2016 and December 2018, 1017 CV patients at high risk of undergoing coronary angiography were enrolled.

RESULTS

CHA₂DS₂-VASc and R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc scores significantly associated with all-cause mortality. For each one-point increase in CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc or R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc scores, mortality increased by almost 1.5-fold. The R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score (C-statistic = 0.71; 95% CI = 0.65-76) outperformed the CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score (C-statistic = 0.66; 95% CI = 0.61-0.71) in predicting 4-year mortality (delta C-statistic = 0.05; 95% CI = 0.02-0.07). The better predictive ability of the R-CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score was also demonstrated by an IDI = 0.027 (95% CI = 0.021-0.034, p < .00001) and a relative IDI = 62.8% (95% CI = 47.9%-81.3%, p < .00001). The R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score correctly reclassified the patients with a NRI = 0.715 (95% = 0.544-0.940, p < .00001).

CONCLUSIONS

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc and R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc scores are useful predictors of all-cause mortality in subjects at high CV risk, with the R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score being the best performer.

Risk factors for left atrial thrombus in younger patients (aged < 65 years) with atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter: Data from the multicenter left atrial thrombus on transesophageal echocardiography (LATTEE) registry

Background

Our aim was to assess the characteristics and to identify predictors of left atrial thrombus (LAT) in patients under age 65 with atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial flutter (AFl).

Methods

We conducted a subanalysis of a multicenter, prospective, observational study [the LATTEE registry]. Consecutive AF/AFl patients referred for cardioversion or ablation were enrolled.

Results

Of the 3,109 patients included in the study, 1,276 were under age 65 (41%). Compared to non-LAT patients, those with LAT (n = 76) had higher CHA2DS2-VASc score (p < 0.001), more frequently had non-paroxysmal AF/AFl (p < 0.001), heart failure (p < 0.001), history of diabetes mellitus (p = 0.001), transient ischemic attack (p = 0.04), coronary artery disease (p = 0.02), and chronic kidney disease (p < 0.001). The LAT patients were also more often smokers (p = 0.004) and were more frequently treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) (p < 0.001). Transthoracic echocardiography revealed a higher left atrial area (p < 0.001), lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (p < 0.001), and lower value of LA appendage emptying volume in LAT than in non-LAT patients (p < 0.001). LVEF (OR 2.95; 95% CI: 1.32-6.59, p = 0.008), non-paroxysmal AF/AFl (OR 7.1; 95% CI: 2.05-24.63, p = 0.002) and treatment with VKAs (OR 4.92; 95% CI: 2.48-9.75, p < 0.001) were identified as independent predictors of LAT in younger patients.

Conclusions

Our study, which focused on younger patients with AF/AFl, indicated substantial clinical and echocardiographic differences between participants with and without LAT. In the AF/AFl patients younger than age 65, the independent predictors of LAT included non-paroxysmal AF/AFl, lower LVEF, and treatment with VKAs.

Validation of Biomarker-Based ABCD Score in Atrial Fibrillation Patients with a Non-Gender CHA2DS2-VASc Score 0-1: A Korean Multi-Center Cohort

PURPOSE

Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with low to intermediate risk, defined as non-gender CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 0-1, are still at risk of stroke. This study verified the usefulness of ABCD score [age (≥60 years), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) or N-terminal pro-BNP (≥300 pg/mL), creatinine clearance (<50 mL/min/1.73 m²), and dimension of the left atrium (≥45 mm)] for stroke risk stratification in non-gender CHA₂DS₂-VASc score 0-1.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This multi-center cohort study retrospectively analyzed AF patients with non-gender CHA₂DS₂-VASc score 0-1. The primary endpoint was the incidence of stroke with or without antithrombotic therapy (ATT). An ABCD score was validated.

RESULTS

Overall, 2694 patients [56.3±9.5 years; female, 726 (26.9%)] were followed-up for 4.0±2.8 years. The overall stroke rate was 0.84/100 person-years (P-Y), stratified as follows: 0.46/100 P-Y for an ABCD score of 0; 1.02/100 P-Y for an ABCD score ≥1. The ABCD score was superior to non-gender CHA₂DS₂-VASc score in the stroke risk stratification (C-index=0.618, p=0.015; net reclassification improvement=0.576, p=0.040; integrated differential improvement=0.033, p=0.066). ATT was prescribed in 2353 patients (86.5%), and the stroke rate was significantly lower in patients receiving non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) therapy and an ABCD score ≥1 than in those without ATT (0.44/100 P-Y vs. 1.55/100 P-Y; hazard ratio=0.26, 95% confidence interval 0.11-0.63, p=0.003).

CONCLUSION

The biomarker-based ABCD score demonstrated improved stroke risk stratification in AF patients with non-gender CHA₂DS₂-VASc score 0-1. Furthermore, NOAC with an ABCD score ≥1 was associated with significantly lower stroke rate in AF patients with non-gender CHA₂DS₂-VASc score 0-1.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Estimation of Left Atrial Thrombus or Spontaneous Echo Contrast Risk in Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients with Low to Borderline CHA2DS2-VASc Score

Purpose

Left atrial thrombus (LAT)/left atrial spontaneous echo contrast (LASEC) still exists in CHA₂DS₂-VASc score-defined low/borderline risk population. The purpose of this study is to explore the risk factors that associate with LAT/SEC and to create a nomogram to predict LAT/SEC risk in NVAF patients with low/borderline CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores.

Patients and Methods

A total of 834 NVAF patients with complete data on transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) were included in this study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the risk factors that associate with LAT/SEC, and a nomogram was established based on the results. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis were performed to verify the predictive power of nomogram.

Results

The rates for LAT/SEC for the training and validation cohorts were 84 (14.7%) and 30 (11.4%), respectively. Independent factors including age, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left atrial diameter (LAD), smoke, non-paroxysmal AF (NPAF), and E/e’ were considered to construct the nomogram for LAT/SEC. The AUC for nomogram was 0.839 and 0.811 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration and decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram had a good prediction capacity and would be clinically useful.

Conclusion

Age, LVEF, LAD, smoke, NPAF, and E/e’ are independently associated with LAT/SEC in NVAF patients with low/borderline CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores. The nomogram that incorporates these six variables effectively predict LAT/SEC risk in NVAF patients with low/borderline CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores.

Mortality prediction using a modified R2CHA2DS2-VASc score among hospitalized COVID-19 patients

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score incorporates several comorbidities which have prognostic implications in COVID-19. We assessed whether a modified score (M-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc), which includes pre-admission kidney function and male sex, could be used to classify mortality risk among people hospitalized with COVID-19. This retrospective study included adults admitted for COVID-19 between March and December 2020. Pre-admission glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was calculated based on serum creatinine and used for scoring M-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc. Participants were categorized according to the M-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc categories as 0-1 (low), 2-3 (intermediate), or ≥ 4 (high), and according to initial COVID-19 severity score. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality rates. Secondary outcomes were mortality rates over time, and rates of mechanical ventilation, hemodynamic support, and renal replacement therapy. Eight hundred hospitalizations met the study criteria. Participants were 55% males, average age was 65.2 ± 17 years. There were similar proportions of subjects across the M-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc categories. 30-day mortality was higher in those in higher M-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc category and with severe or critical COVID-19 at admission. Subjects in the low, intermediate, and high M-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc categories had 30-day mortality rates of 4.7%, 17% and 31%, respectively (p < 0.001). Higher category was also associated with increased need for mechanical ventilation and renal replacement therapy. All-cause 90-day mortality remained significantly associated with M-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc. The M-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score is associated with 30-day mortality rates among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, and adds predictive value when combined with initial COVID-19 severity.

Atrial Fibrillation in Chronic Kidney Disease: An Overview

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a condition that can be caused due to any etiology leading to structural damage to the kidney, which can be measured by a decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the presence of damage biomarkers for more than three months. This article has discussed the causal relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and CKD, a few of them being inflammation, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) activation, anemia, and uremia associated with CKD. This review mentioned the clinical impact of the presence of AF in CKD patients. The presence of AF in CKD patients aggravates the renal dysfunction, which in turn adds to the generation of AF. This article explores the various pharmacological and interventional treatment modalities, including antiarrhythmics, anticoagulants, and cardiac ablation, and their complications, leading to restricted usage in CKD patients.