Transmission of Multidrug-Resistant and Drug-Susceptible Tuberculosis within Households: A Prospective Cohort Study

The recent rapid expansion of multidrug resistant Ural lineage Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Moldova

The projected trajectory of multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) epidemics depends on the reproductive fitness of circulating strains of MDR M. tuberculosis (Mtb). Previous efforts to characterize the fitness of MDR Mtb have found that Mtb strains of the Beijing sublineage (Lineage 2.2.1) may be more prone to develop resistance and retain fitness in the presence of resistance-conferring mutations than other lineages. Using Mtb genome sequences from all culture-positive cases collected over two years in Moldova, we estimate the fitness of Ural (Lineage 4.2) and Beijing strains, the two lineages in which MDR is concentrated in the country. We estimate that the fitness of MDR Ural strains substantially exceeds that of other susceptible and MDR strains, and we identify several mutations specific to these MDR Ural strains. Our findings suggest that MDR Ural Mtb has been transmitting efficiently in Moldova and poses a substantial risk of spreading further in the region.

Detection of a historic reservoir of bedaquiline/clofazimine resistance-associated variants in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Drug resistance in tuberculosis (TB) poses a major ongoing challenge to public health. The recent inclusion of bedaquiline into TB drug regimens has improved treatment outcomes, but this advance is threatened by the emergence of strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) resistant to bedaquiline. Clinical bedaquiline resistance is most frequently conferred by off-target resistance-associated variants (RAVs) in the mmpR5 gene (Rv0678), the regulator of an efflux pump, which can also confer cross-resistance to clofazimine, another TB drug.

METHODS

We compiled a dataset of 3682 Mtb genomes, including 180 carrying variants in mmpR5, and its immediate background (i.e. mmpR5 promoter and adjacent mmpL5 gene), that have been associated to borderline (henceforth intermediate) or confirmed resistance to bedaquiline. We characterised the occurrence of all nonsynonymous mutations in mmpR5 in this dataset and estimated, using time-resolved phylogenetic methods, the age of their emergence.

RESULTS

We identified eight cases where RAVs were present in the genomes of strains collected prior to the use of bedaquiline in TB treatment regimes. Phylogenetic reconstruction points to multiple emergence events and circulation of RAVs in mmpR5, some estimated to predate the introduction of bedaquiline. However, epistatic interactions can complicate bedaquiline drug-susceptibility prediction from genetic sequence data. Indeed, in one clade, Ile67fs (a RAV when considered in isolation) was estimated to have emerged prior to the antibiotic era, together with a resistance reverting mmpL5 mutation.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of a pre-existing reservoir of Mtb strains carrying bedaquiline RAVs prior to its clinical use augments the need for rapid drug susceptibility testing and individualised regimen selection to safeguard the use of bedaquiline in TB care and control.

Enhanced active case finding of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Namibia: a protocol for the hotspots, hospitals, and households (H3TB) study

INTRODUCTION

Namibia is a high tuberculosis (TB)-burden country with an estimated incidence of 460/100 000 (around 12 000 cases) per year. Approximately 4.5% of new cases and 7.9% of previously treated TB cases are multidrug resistant (MDR) and 47% of patients with MDR-TB are HIV coinfected. Published data suggest a clustering of MDR-TB transmission in specific areas. Identifying transmission clusters is key to implementing high-yield and cost-effective interventions. This includes knowing the yield of finding TB cases in high-transmission zones (eg, community hotspots, hospitals or households) to deliver community-based interventions. We aim to identify such transmission zones for enhanced case finding and evaluate the effectiveness of this approach.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

H3TB is an observational cross-sectional study evaluating MDR-TB active case finding strategies. Sputum samples from MDR-TB cases in three regions of Namibia will be evaluated by whole genome sequencing (WGS) in addition to routine sputum investigations (Xpert MTB/RIF, culture and drug susceptibility testing). We will collect information on household contacts, use of community spaces and geographical map intersections between participants, synthesising these data to identify transmission hotspots. We will look at the feasibility, acceptability, yield and cost of case finding strategies in these hotspots, and in households of patients with MDR-TB and visitors of hospitalised patients with MDR-TB. A compartmental transmission dynamic model will be constructed to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of the strategies if scaled.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was obtained. Participants will give informed consent. H3TB will capitalise on a partnership with the Ministry of Health and Social Services to follow up individuals diagnosed with MDR-TB and integrate WGS data with innovative contact network mapping, to allow enhanced case finding. Study data will contribute towards a systems approach to TB control. Equally important, it will serve as a role model for similar studies in other high-incidence settings.

The Impact of Preventive Treatment for Multidrug- and Rifampin-Resistant Tuberculosis Exceeds Trial-Based Estimates

BACKGROUND

Several clinical trials of tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) for household contacts of patients with multidrug- or rifampin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) are nearing completion. The potential benefits of delivering TPT to MDR/RR-TB contacts extend beyond the outcomes that clinical trials can measure.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based, household-structured TB and MDR/RR-TB transmission model, calibrated to an illustrative setting in India. We simulated contact investigation in households of patients with MDR/RR-TB, comparing an MDR/RR-TPT regimen (assuming 6-month duration, 70% efficacy) and associated active case finding against alternatives of contact investigation without TPT or no household intervention. We simulated the TB and MDR/RR-TB incidence averted relative to placebo over 2 years, as measurable by a typical trial, as well as the incidence averted over a longer time horizon, in the broader population, and relative to no contact investigation.

RESULTS

Observing TPT and placebo recipients for 2 years as in a typical trial, MDR/RR-TPT was measured to prevent 72% (interquartile range, 45%-100%) of incident MDR/RR-TB among recipients; the median number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent 1 MDR/RR-TB case was 73, compared to placebo. This NNT decreased to 54 with 13-18 years of observation, to 27 when downstream transmission effects were also considered, and to 12 when the effects of active TB screening were included by comparing to a no-household-contact-intervention scenario.

CONCLUSIONS

If forthcoming trial results demonstrate efficacy, the long-term population impact of TPT for MDR/RR-TB-including the large effect of increased active TB detection among MDR/RR-TB contacts-could be much greater than suggested by trial outcomes alone.

[Tuberculosis Infection Control & Hygiene - Recommendations of the DZK]

Preventing the spread of the disease is an essential goal in the care and treatment of tuberculosis. In addition to early diagnosis and effective therapies, isolation of infectious patients and adequate hygiene measures are of particular importance for infection prevention. The present recommendations replace the previous recommendations "tuberculosis infection control" from 2012 and take into account the current national and international recommendations and as well as new scientific findings. After a description of the infection and the transmission pathways, the necessary prevention and hygiene measures in health care facilities are comprehensively presented. Since the last revision of the recommendations on infection prevention, international recommendations and the KRINKO recommendation on ending isolation have been changed. In accordance with this, under certain conditions in the case of sensitive tuberculosis, de-isolation in health care facilities can take place after 14 days without taking the sputum findings into account. The second part of the recommendations explains in detail the measures to be taken in special situations and areas, such as general practitioners, ambulance services and care facilities. Here, the recommendations on respiratory protection have been simplified; for staff, an FFP2 mask is now generally considered sufficient.

Finding and treating both tuberculosis disease and latent infection during population-wide active case finding for tuberculosis elimination

In recognition of the high rates of undetected tuberculosis in the community, the World Health Organization (WHO) encourages targeted active case finding (ACF) among "high-risk" populations. While this strategy has led to increased case detection in these populations, the epidemic impact of these interventions has not been demonstrated. Historical data suggest that population-wide (untargeted) ACF can interrupt transmission in high-incidence settings, but implementation remains lacking, despite recent advances in screening tools. The reservoir of latent infection-affecting up to a quarter of the global population -complicates elimination efforts by acting as a pool from which future tuberculosis cases may emerge, even after all active cases have been treated. A holistic case finding strategy that addresses both active disease and latent infection is likely to be the optimal approach for rapidly achieving sustainable progress toward TB elimination in a durable way, but safety and cost effectiveness have not been demonstrated. Sensitive, symptom-agnostic community screening, combined with effective tuberculosis treatment and prevention, should eliminate all infectious cases in the community, whilst identifying and treating people with latent infection will also eliminate tomorrow's tuberculosis cases. If real strides toward global tuberculosis elimination are to be made, bold strategies are required using the best available tools and a long horizon for cost-benefit assessment.

Factors associated with prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and disease among adolescents and adults exposed to rifampin-resistant tuberculosis in the household

BACKGROUND

Understanding factors associated with prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and prevalent TB disease in household contacts of patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) may be useful for TB program staff conducting contact investigations.

METHODS

Using data from a cross-sectional study that enrolled index participants with rifampin-resistant pulmonary TB and their household contacts (HHCs), we evaluated HHCs age ≥15 years for factors associated with two outcomes: Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and TB disease. Among HHCs who were not already diagnosed with current active TB disease by the TB program, Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection was determined by interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). TB disease was adjudicated centrally. We fitted logistic regression models using generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

Seven hundred twelve HHCs age ≥15 years enrolled from 279 households in eight high-TB burden countries were a median age of 34 years, 63% female, 22% current smokers and 8% previous smokers, 8% HIV-positive, and 11% previously treated for TB. Of 686 with determinate IGRA results, 471 tested IGRA positive (prevalence 68.8% (95% Confidence Interval: 64.6%, 72.8%)). Multivariable modeling showed IGRA positivity was more common in HHCs aged 25-49 years; reporting prior TB treatment; reporting incarceration, substance use, and/or a period of daily alcohol use in the past 12 months; sharing a sleeping room or more evenings spent with the index participant; living with smokers; or living in a home of materials typical of low socioeconomic status. Forty-six (6.5% (95% Confidence Interval: 4.6%, 9.0%)) HHCs age ≥15 years had prevalent TB disease. Multivariable modeling showed higher prevalence of TB disease among HHCs aged ≥50 years; reporting current or previous smoking; reporting a period of daily alcohol use in the past 12 months; and reporting prior TB treatment.

CONCLUSION

We identified overlapping and distinct characteristics associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and TB disease that may be useful for those conducting household TB investigations.

Discrepancy in the transmissibility of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis in urban and rural areas in China

The fitness of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is thought to be an important determinant of a strain's ability to be transmitted and cause outbreaks. Studies in the laboratory have demonstrated that MDR-TB strains have reduced fitness but the relative transmissibility of MDR-TB versus drug-susceptible (DS) TB strains in human populations remains unresolved. We used data on genomic clustering from our previous molecular epidemiological study in Songjiang (2011-2020) and Wusheng (2009-2020), China, to compare the relative transmissibility of MDR-TB versus DS-TB. Genomic clusters were defined with a threshold distance of 12-single-nucleotide-polymorphisms and the risk for MDR-TB clustering was analyzed by logistic regression. In total, 2212 culture-positive pulmonary TB patients were enrolled in Songjiang and 1289 in Wusheng. The clustering rates of MDR-TB and DS-TB strains were 19.4% (20/103) and 26.3% (509/1936), respectively in Songjiang, and 43.9% (29/66) and 26.0% (293/1128) in Wusheng. The risk of MDR-TB clustering was 2.34 (95% CI 1.38-3.94) times higher than DS-TB clustering in Wusheng and 0.64 (95% CI 0.38-1.06) times lower in Songjiang. Neither lineage 2, compensatory mutations nor rpoB S450L were significantly associated with MDR-TB transmission, and katG S315T increased MDR-TB transmission only in Wusheng (OR 5.28, 95% CI 1.42-19.21). MDR-TB was not more transmissible than DS-TB in either Songjiang or Wusheng. It appears that the different transmissibility of MDR-TB in Songjiang and Wusheng is likely due to differences in the quality of the local TB control programs. These results suggest that the most effective way to control MDR-TB is by improving local TB control programs.

Trials underestimate the impact of preventive treatment for household contacts exposed to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a simulation study

Background

Several clinical trials of tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) for household contacts of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are nearing completion. The potential benefits of TPT for MDR-TB contacts extend beyond the outcomes that clinical trials can measure.

Methods

We developed an agent-based, household-structured TB and MDR-TB transmission model, calibrated to an illustrative setting in India, the country accounting for 26% of global MDR-TB burden. We simulated household contact investigation for contacts of patients with MDR-TB, comparing an MDR-TPT regimen against alternatives of isoniazid preventive treatment, household contact investigation without TPT, or no household contact intervention. We simulated outcomes of a clinical trial and estimated the patient-level and population-level effects over a longer time horizon.

Findings

During two years of follow-up per recipient, a simulated 6-month MDR-TPT regimen with 70% efficacy against both DS- and MDR-TB infection could prevent 72% [Interquartile range (IQR): 45 - 100%] of incident MDR-TB among TPT recipients (number needed to treat (NNT) 73 [44 - 176] to prevent one MDR-TB case), compared to household contact investigation without TPT. This NNT decreased to 54 [30 - 183] when median follow-up was increased from two to 16 years, to 27 [11 - Inf] when downstream transmission effects were also considered, and to 12 [8 - 22] when these effects were compared to a scenario of no household contact intervention.

Interpretation

If forthcoming trial results demonstrate efficacy, the long-term population impact of MDR-TPT implementation could be much greater than suggested by trial outcomes alone.

Funding

NIH K01AI138853 and K08AI127908; Johns Hopkins Catalyst Award.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Transmission in High-Incidence Settings-New Paradigms and Insights

Tuberculosis has affected humankind for thousands of years, but a deeper understanding of its cause and transmission only arose after Robert Koch discovered Mycobacterium tuberculosis in 1882. Valuable insight has been gained since, but the accumulation of knowledge has been frustratingly slow and incomplete for a pathogen that remains the number one infectious disease killer on the planet. Contrast that to the rapid progress that has been made in our understanding SARS-CoV-2 (the cause of COVID-19) aerobiology and transmission. In this Review, we discuss important historical and contemporary insights into M. tuberculosis transmission. Historical insights describing the principles of aerosol transmission, as well as relevant pathogen, host and environment factors are described. Furthermore, novel insights into asymptomatic and subclinical tuberculosis, and the potential role this may play in population-level transmission is discussed. Progress towards understanding the full spectrum of M. tuberculosis transmission in high-burden settings has been hampered by sub-optimal diagnostic tools, limited basic science exploration and inadequate study designs. We propose that, as a tuberculosis field, we must learn from and capitalize on the novel insights and methods that have been developed to investigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission to limit ongoing tuberculosis transmission, which sustains the global pandemic.

A case report of transmission and disease caused by Mycobacterium caprae and Mycobacterium bovis in Lima, Peru

BACKGROUND

The Tuberculosis (TB) burden in Peru is significant with respect to both disease morbidity and mortality. Furthermore the recent diversification of farming enterprise to include a wide range of animal species has necessitated the consideration of members of the Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Complex (MTBC) with the potential for zoonotic transmission. M. bovis and M. caprae, a lesser known member of the MTBC exhibit an exceptionally wide host spectrum in animals and are capable of causing disease in humans. M. bovis has a predictable resistance profile which includes resistance to pyrazinamide. Thus, failure to identify M. bovis as the causative agent in reported TB cases leads to higher levels of treatment failure and contributes to the transmission of drug-resistant TB.

CASE PRESENTATION

Reported here are the clinical presentations, investigations and treatment histories of two patients identified from a population level genotyping study in Lima, Peru that were at the time of treatment thought to be M. tuberculosis patients but in retrospect were spectated using whole genome sequencing as M. caprae and M. Bovis.

CONCLUSIONS

The cases reported here constitute convincing evidence that M. caprae and M. bovis are causative agents of TB infection in humans in Peru and underscore the importance of species-level MTBC member identification to effectively control and treat zoonotic TB. Furthermore these cases highlight the challenges of using clinical risk factors to identify cases of zoonotic TB in humans as their clinical presentation and transmission history is often difficult to distinguish from anthroponotic TB.

Genomic signatures of pre-resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Recent advances in bacterial whole-genome sequencing have resulted in a comprehensive catalog of antibiotic resistance genomic signatures in Mycobacterium tuberculosis. With a view to pre-empt the emergence of resistance, we hypothesized that pre-existing polymorphisms in susceptible genotypes (pre-resistance mutations) could increase the risk of becoming resistant in the future. We sequenced whole genomes from 3135 isolates sampled over a 17-year period. After reconstructing ancestral genomes on time-calibrated phylogenetic trees, we developed and applied a genome-wide survival analysis to determine the hazard of resistance acquisition. We demonstrate that M. tuberculosis lineage 2 has a higher risk of acquiring resistance than lineage 4, and estimate a higher hazard of rifampicin resistance evolution following isoniazid mono-resistance. Furthermore, we describe loci and genomic polymorphisms associated with a higher risk of resistance acquisition. Identifying markers of future antibiotic resistance could enable targeted therapy to prevent resistance emergence in M. tuberculosis and other pathogens.

Local Transmission Plays No Important Role in the Occurrence of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Immigrants to Canada: An In-depth Epidemiologic Analysis

BACKGROUND

Multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis has increased among migrants in Canada. The cause(s) of this increase is unknown.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study in a Canadian province with substantially increased immigration between 1982-2001 and 2002-2019. The proportion of MDR tuberculosis among migrants arriving from high MDR (HMDR) tuberculosis burden countries during these 2 periods was used to estimate the proportion of cases due to immigration versus change in proportion in the country of birth. Epidemiologic, spatiotemporal, and drug resistance pattern data were used to confirm local transmission.

RESULTS

Fifty-two of 3514 (1.48%) foreign-born culture-positive tuberculosis patients had MDR tuberculosis: 8 (0.6%) in 1982-2001 and 44 (2.0%) in 2002-2019. Between time periods, the proportion of MDR tuberculosis among migrants with tuberculosis from HMDR tuberculosis countries increased from 1.11% to 3.62%, P = .003; 31.6% attributable to recent immigration and 68.4% to a higher proportion of MDR tuberculosis in cases arrived from HMDR tuberculosis countries. No cases of MDR tuberculosis were attributable to local transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

In stark contrast to HMDR tuberculosis countries, local transmission plays no important role in the occurrence of MDR tuberculosis in Canada. Improved tuberculosis programming in HMDR tuberculosis countries is urgently needed.

The effectiveness of contact investigation among contacts of tuberculosis patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of contact investigation in comparison to passive case-detection alone and estimated the yield of co-prevalent and incident tuberculosis (TB), and latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among contacts of patients with TB.

METHODS

A systematic search was undertaken of studies published between January 1, 2011 and October 1, 2019 in the English language. The proportion of contacts diagnosed with co-prevalent TB, incident TB and/or LTBI was estimated. Evaluation of the effectiveness of contact investigation included randomised trials, while the yield of contact investigation (co-prevalent and incident TB and LTBI) was assessed in non-randomised studies.

RESULTS

Data were extracted from 244 studies, of which 187 studies measured the proportion of contacts diagnosed with TB disease and 135 studies measured LTBI prevalence. Individual randomised trials demonstrated that contact investigation increased TB case notification (RR 2.5 [95% CI: 2.0-3.2]), TB case detection (OR 1.34 [95% CI: 0.43-4.24]) and decreased mortality (RR 0.6 [95% CI: 0.4-0.8]) and population TB prevalence (risk ratio 0.82 [95% CI: 0.64-1.04]).The overall pooled prevalence of TB was 3.6% (95% CI: 3.3-4.0%; I²=98.9%, 181 studies). The pooled prevalence of microbiologically-confirmed TB was 3.2% (95% CI: 2.6-3.7%; I²=99.5%, 106 studies). The pooled incidence of TB was highest in the first year after exposure to index patients (2.0%, 95% CI: 1.1-3.3%; I²=96.2%, 14 studies) and substantially lower five years after exposure to index patient (0.5%, 95% CI: 0.3-0.9%; 1 study). The pooled prevalence of LTBI among contacts was 42.4% (95% CI: 38.5-46.4%; I²=99.8%, 135 studies).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This systematic review and meta-analysis found that contact investigation was effective in high-burden settings. The higher pooled prevalence estimates of microbiologically-confirmed TB compared to previous reviews suggests newer rapid molecular diagnostics contribute to increased case detection.

The RATIONS (Reducing Activation of Tuberculosis by Improvement of Nutritional Status) study: a cluster randomised trial of nutritional support (food rations) to reduce TB incidence in household contacts of patients with microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in communities with a high prevalence of undernutrition, Jharkhand, India

INTRODUCTION

India has the largest burden of cases and deaths related to tuberculosis (TB). Undernutrition is the leading risk factor accounting for TB incidence, while severe undernutrition is a common risk factor for mortality in patients with TB in India. The impact of nutritional supplementation on TB incidence is unknown, while few underpowered studies have assessed its impact on TB mortality. We designed an open-label, field-based cluster randomised trial to assess the impact of nutritional supplementation (with food rations) on TB incidence in a group at higher risk of TB infection and disease, viz household contacts (HHC) of patients with microbiologically confirmed pulmonary TB (PTB) in Jharkhand, a state with a high prevalence of undernutrition.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We shall enrol 2800 adult patients with PTB of the national TB programme, across 28 treatment units in 4 districts, and their approximately 11 200 eligible contacts. The sample size has 80% power to detect the primary outcome of 50% reduction in incidence of active TB in HHC over 2 years of follow-up. Patients and HHC in both the arms will undergo nutritional assessment and counselling. Patients will receive monthly food rations (supplying 1200 kcal and 52 g proteins/day) and multivitamins along with antitubercular treatment. The HHC in the intervention arm will receive food rations (supplying 750 kcal and 23 g proteins/day) and multivitamins while HHC in control arm will be on usual diet. The secondary outcomes in HHC will include effects on nutritional status, non-TB infections. Secondary outcomes in patients are effects on TB mortality, adherence, adverse effects, nutritional and performance status. Substudies will examine micronutrient status and effects on dietary intake, body composition, muscle strength and immune function.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The institutional ethics committee of ICMR-NIRT, Chennai, approved the study (289/NIRT-IEC/2018). The results will be disseminated in publications and presentations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Clinical Trial Registry of India: CTRI/2019/08/020490.

The fourth national anti-tuberculosis drug resistance survey in Peru

BACKGROUND: Peru has one of the highest burdens of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), but universal drug susceptibility testing (DST) has not yet been achieved.OBJECTIVE: To estimate the proportion of drug resistance among smear-positive TB patients in Peru.DESIGN: From September 2014 to March 2015, we performed a national drug resistance survey of patients aged ≥15 years; TB was diagnosed based on sputum smear positivity. We performed DST at the National Reference Laboratory of the Peruvian National Institute of Health, Lima, Peru, using the proportion method in Middlebrook 7H10 agar for four first-line drugs and six second-line drugs, and the Wayne method for pyrazinamide.RESULTS: Of the 1908 new and 272 previously treated patients included in the analysis, 638 (29.3%) patients had resistance to at least one first-line drug. MDR-TB was diagnosed in 7.3% of new and 16.2% of previously treated patients (P < 0.001). There were five (0.2%) patients with extensively drug-resistant TB.CONCLUSION: MDR-TB has increased to 7.3% in new patients from 5.3% in the previous survey, indicating that resistance to anti-tuberculosis drugs is increasing in Peru. Ongoing community transmission of resistant strains highlights an urgent need for early diagnosis, optimised treatment and effective contact tracing of MDR-TB patients.

Dynamics of sputum conversion during effective tuberculosis treatment: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Two weeks' isolation is widely recommended for people commencing treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). The evidence that this corresponds to clearance of potentially infectious tuberculous mycobacteria in sputum is not well established. This World Health Organization-commissioned review investigated sputum sterilisation dynamics during TB treatment.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

For the main analysis, 2 systematic literature searches of OvidSP MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health, and EBSCO CINAHL Plus were conducted to identify studies with data on TB infectiousness (all studies to search date, 1 December 2017) and all randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for drug-susceptible TB (from 1 January 1990 to search date, 20 February 2018). Included articles reported on patients receiving effective treatment for culture-confirmed drug-susceptible pulmonary TB. The outcome of interest was sputum bacteriological conversion: the proportion of patients having converted by a defined time point or a summary measure of time to conversion, assessed by smear or culture. Any study design with 10 or more particpants was considered. Record sifting and data extraction were performed in duplicate. Random effects meta-analyses were performed. A narrative summary additionally describes the results of a systematic search for data evaluating infectiousness from humans to experimental animals (PubMed, all studies to 27 March 2018). Other evidence on duration of infectiousness-including studies reporting on cough dynamics, human tuberculin skin test conversion, or early bactericidal activity of TB treatments-was outside the scope of this review. The literature search was repeated on 22 November 2020, at the request of the editors, to identify studies published after the previous censor date. Four small studies reporting 3 different outcome measures were identified, which included no data that would alter the findings of the review; they are not included in the meta-analyses. Of 5,290 identified records, 44 were included. Twenty-seven (61%) were RCTs and 17 (39%) were cohort studies. Thirteen studies (30%) reported data from Africa, 12 (27%) from Asia, 6 (14%) from South America, 5 (11%) from North America, and 4 (9%) from Europe. Four studies reported data from multiple continents. Summary estimates suggested smear conversion in 9% of patients at 2 weeks (95% CI 3%-24%, 1 single study [N = 1]), and 82% of patients at 2 months of treatment (95% CI 78%-86%, N = 10). Among baseline smear-positive patients, solid culture conversion occurred by 2 weeks in 5% (95% CI 0%-14%, N = 2), increasing to 88% at 2 months (95% CI 84%-92%, N = 20). At equivalent time points, liquid culture conversion was achieved in 3% (95% CI 1%-16%, N = 1) and 59% (95% CI 47%-70%, N = 8). Significant heterogeneity was observed. Further interrogation of the data to explain this heterogeneity was limited by the lack of disaggregation of results, including by factors such as HIV status, baseline smear status, and the presence or absence of lung cavitation.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review found that most patients remained culture positive at 2 weeks of TB treatment, challenging the view that individuals are not infectious after this interval. Culture positivity is, however, only 1 component of infectiousness, with reduced cough frequency and aerosol generation after TB treatment initiation likely to also be important. Studies that integrate our findings with data on cough dynamics could provide a more complete perspective on potential transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis by individuals on treatment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Systematic review registration: PROSPERO 85226.

Low-Level Rifampin Resistance and rpoB Mutations in Mycobacterium tuberculosis: an Analysis of Whole-Genome Sequencing and Drug Susceptibility Test Data in New York

Rapid and reliable detection of rifampin (RIF) resistance is critical for the diagnosis and treatment of drug-resistant and multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis. Discordant RIF phenotype/genotype susceptibility results remain a challenge due to the presence of rpoB mutations that do not confer high levels of RIF resistance, as have been exhibited in strains with mutations such as Ser450Leu. These strains, termed low-level RIF resistant, exhibit elevated RIF MICs compared to fully susceptible strains but remain phenotypically susceptible by mycobacterial growth indicator tube (MGIT) testing and have been associated with poor patient outcomes. Here, we assess RIF resistance prediction by whole-genome sequencing (WGS) among a set of 1,779 prospectively tested strains by both prevalence of rpoB gene mutation and phenotype as part of routine clinical testing during a 2.5-year period. During this time, 139 strains were found to have nonsynonymous rpoB mutations, 53 of which were associated with RIF resistance, including both low-level and high-level resistance. Resistance to RIF (1.0 μg/ml in MGIT) was identified in 43 (81.1%) isolates. The remaining 10 (18.9%) strains were susceptible by MGIT but were confirmed to be low-level RIF resistant by MIC testing. Full rpoB gene sequencing overcame the limitations of critical concentration phenotyping, probe-based genotyping, and partial gene sequencing methods. Universal clinical WGS with concurrent phenotypic testing provided a more complete understanding of the prevalence and type of rpoB mutations and their association with RIF resistance in New York.

Community transmission of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis is associated with activity space overlap in Lima, Peru

Background

Transmission of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB) requires spatial proximity between infectious cases and susceptible persons. We assess activity space overlap among MDRTB cases and community controls to identify potential areas of transmission.

Methods

We enrolled 35 MDRTB cases and 64 TB-free community controls in Lima, Peru. Cases were whole genome sequenced and strain clustering was used as a proxy for transmission. GPS data were gathered from participants over seven days. Kernel density estimation methods were used to construct activity spaces from GPS locations and the utilization distribution overlap index (UDOI) was used to quantify activity space overlap.

Results

Activity spaces of controls (median = 35.6 km², IQR = 25.1–54) were larger than cases (median = 21.3 km², IQR = 17.9–48.6) (P = 0.02). Activity space overlap was greatest among genetically clustered cases (mean UDOI = 0.63, sd = 0.67) and lowest between cases and controls (mean UDOI = 0.13, sd = 0.28). UDOI was positively associated with genetic similarity of MDRTB strains between case pairs (P < 0.001). The odds of two cases being genetically clustered increased by 22% per 0.10 increase in UDOI (OR = 1.22, CI = 1.09–1.36, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Activity space overlap is associated with MDRTB clustering. MDRTB transmission may be occurring in small, overlapping activity spaces in community settings. GPS studies may be useful in identifying new areas of MDRTB transmission.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-05953-8.

A study of multidrug resistant tuberculosis among symptomatic household contacts of MDR-TB patients

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis and management of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remains a global challenge and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Burden of TB among symptomatic household contacts of MDR-TB is not extensively studied and screening of symptomatic contacts may provide a better opportunity for optimum management and effective TB control.

METHODS

This prospective observational study was conducted in the department of Tuberculosis & Chest diseases, S.N. Medical College, Agra from February 2016 to January 2018. The study recruited 271 symptomatic household contacts of 87 index MDR-TB cases. Symptomatic contacts were screened for active disease and latent TB infection. Risk factors for the spread of disease were also looked for.

RESULTS

Out of 271 symptomatic household contacts, 97 (35.79%) had active TB. Among 97 diseased, 62 (22.87%) had MDR-TB and 35 (12.91%) had drug-susceptible TB. 124 contacts (45%) had latent TB infection. Risk factors associated with occurrence of TB included age less than 18 years (OR = 7160, p = 0.1908, RR = 0.8082, p = 0.1887), male sex (OR = 2.3108, p = 0.0021, RR = 1.7444, p = 0.0034), Sibling as index case (OR = 0.6404, p = 0.0804, RR = 0.7520, p = 0.0806), lack of BCG vaccination (OR = 1.7763, p = 0.0271, RR = 1.4338, p = 0.0247) malnutrition (OR = 1.8980, p = 0.0138, RR = 1.5166, p = 0.0159) and lower socioeconomic status (OR = 3.2399, p < 0.0001, RR = 2.1524, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The high case detection rate by screening symptomatic household contacts shows MDR-TB is highly transmissible and household contacts are at a higher risk of developing active disease. It provides an opportunity for early diagnosis, adequate treatment, and interrupt the chain of transmission. Identifying risk factors help prevent the progression of latent TB infection to active disease.

Antimicrobial resistance and COVID-19: Intersections and implications

Before the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) was among the top priorities for global public health. Already a complex challenge, AMR now needs to be addressed in a changing healthcare landscape. Here, we analyse how changes due to COVID-19 in terms of antimicrobial usage, infection prevention, and health systems affect the emergence, transmission, and burden of AMR. Increased hand hygiene, decreased international travel, and decreased elective hospital procedures may reduce AMR pathogen selection and spread in the short term. However, the opposite effects may be seen if antibiotics are more widely used as standard healthcare pathways break down. Over 6 months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the dynamics of AMR remain uncertain. We call for the AMR community to keep a global perspective while designing finely tuned surveillance and research to continue to improve our preparedness and response to these intersecting public health challenges.

Genotypes of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates circulating in Shaanxi Province, China

Objectives

The prevalence of drug-resistant TB in Shaanxi Province is higher than other areas. This study was aimed to investigate the genetic diversity and epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical strains in Shaanxi Province, China.

Methods

From January to December 2016, a total of 298 Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates from smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients were genotyped by Mcspoligotyping and 15-locus VNTR.

Results

We found that the Beijing family strains was the most prominent family(81.54%, 243/298). Other family strains included T family(9.06%, 27/298), U family(0.67%, 2/298), LAM9 family(0.34%, 1/298) and Manu family(0.34%, 1/298). The rates of multidrug-resistant (MDR) M.Tuberculosis, age, type of case and education between Beijing and non-Beijing family strains were not statistically different, while the distribution in the three different regions among these was statistically significant.

VNTR results showed that strains were classified into 280 genotypes, and 33 (11.07%) strains could be grouped into 14 clusters. 11 of the 15-VNTR loci were highly or moderately discriminative according to the Hunter-Gaston discriminatory index.

Conclusions

We concluded that the Beijing family genotype was the most prevalent genotype and 15-locus VNTR typing might be suitable for genotyping of M. tuberculosis in Shaanxi Province. There was less association between Beijing family genotypes and drug resistance in our study area.

Isoniazid Preventive Therapy in Contacts of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis

Rationale: The World Health Organization recommends the use of isoniazid (INH) alone or in combination with rifapentine to treat latent tuberculosis infections. The recent rise of drug-resistant tuberculosis has complicated the choice of treatment regimen for latent tuberculosis infection.Objectives: To evaluate the effects of INH preventive therapy on the contacts of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.Methods: In a prospective cohort study conducted between September 2009 and August 2012, we identified 4,500 index patients with tuberculosis and 14,044 tuberculosis-exposed household contacts who we followed for 1 year for the occurrence of incident tuberculosis disease. Although Peruvian national guidelines specify that INH preventive therapy should be provided to contacts aged 19 years old or younger, only half this group received INH preventive therapy.Measurements and Main Results: Among 4,216 contacts under 19 years of age, 2,106 contacts (50%) initiated INH preventive therapy at enrollment. The protective effect of INH was more extreme in contacts exposed to drug-sensitive tuberculosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval, 0.18-0.48) and to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.19; 95% confidence interval, 0.05-0.66) compared with those exposed to mono-INH-resistant tuberculosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.23-2.80). In the second independent study, tuberculosis occurred in none of the 76 household contacts who received INH preventive therapy compared with 3% (8 of 273) of those who did not.Conclusions: Household contacts who received INH preventive therapy had a lower incidence of tuberculosis disease even when they had been exposed to an index patient with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. INH may have a role in the management of latent multidrug-resistant tuberculosis infection.

Nomogram for individualized prediction of incident multidrug-resistant tuberculosis after completing pulmonary tuberculosis treatment

The purposes of this study were to construct a comprehensive nomogram for providing a simple, precise and personalized prediction of incident multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) after completing pulmonary tuberculosis treatment (CPTBT). A matched case–control study (1:2 ratios) was performed between 2005 and 2018. A multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate independent predictors of incident MDR-TB after the CPTBT. A comprehensive nomogram was developed based on the multivariable Cox model. Overall, 1, 836 participants were included in this study. We developed and validated a simple-to-use nomogram that predicted the individualized risk of incident MDR-TB by using 10 parameters after the CPTBT. The concordance index of this nomogram was 0.833 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.807–0.859] and 0.871 (95% CI 0.773–0.969) for the training and validation sets, respectively, which indicated adequate discriminatory power. The calibration curves for the risk of incident MDR-TB showed an optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation in the training and validation sets, respectively. The high sensitivity and specificity of nomogram was indicated by using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Through this clinic tool, TB control executives could more precisely monitor, estimate and intervene the risk of incident MDR-TB among individuals with CPTBT.

Modeling drug-resistant tuberculosis amplification rates and intervention strategies in Bangladesh

Tuberculosis (TB) is the seventh leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Bangladesh. Although the National TB control program (NTP) of Bangladesh is implementing its nationwide TB control strategies, more specific and effective single or combination interventions are needed to control drug-susceptible (DS) and multi-drug resistant (MDR) TB. In this study, we developed a two strain TB mathematical model with amplification and fit it to the Bangladesh TB data to understand the transmission dynamics of DS and MDR TB. Sensitivity analysis was used to identify important parameters. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of varying combinations of four basic control strategies including distancing, latent case finding, case holding and active case finding, all within the optimal control framework. From our fitting, the model with different transmission rates between DS and MDR TB best captured the Bangladesh TB reported case counts. The estimated basic reproduction number for DS TB was 1.14 and for MDR TB was 0.54, with an amplification rate of 0.011 per year. The sensitivity analysis also indicated that the transmission rates for both DS and MDR TB had the largest influence on prevalence. To reduce the burden of TB (both DS and MDR), our finding suggested that a quadruple control strategy that combines distancing control, latent case finding, case holding and active case finding is the most cost-effective. Alternative strategies can be adopted to curb TB depending on availability of resources and policy makers’ decisions.

Association between bacterial homoplastic variants and radiological pathology in tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Understanding how pathogen genetic factors contribute to pathology in TB could enable tailored treatments to the most pathogenic and infectious strains. New strategies are needed to control drug-resistant TB, which requires longer and costlier treatment. We hypothesised that the severity of radiological pathology on the chest radiograph in TB disease was associated with variants arising independently, multiple times (homoplasies) in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis genome.

METHODS

We performed whole genome sequencing (Illumina HiSeq2000 platform) on M. tuberculosis isolates from 103 patients with drug-resistant TB in Lima between 2010 and 2013. Variables including age, sex, HIV status, previous TB disease and the percentage of lung involvement on the pretreatment chest radiograph were collected from health posts of the national TB programme. Genomic variants were identified using standard pipelines.

RESULTS

Two mutations were significantly associated with more widespread radiological pathology in a multivariable regression model controlling for confounding variables (Rv2828c.141, RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.39, p<0.01; rpoC.1040 95% CI 1.77 to 2.16, RR 1.9, p<0.01). The rpoB.450 mutation was associated with less extensive radiological pathology (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.94, p=0.03), suggestive of a bacterial fitness cost for this mutation in vivo. Patients with a previous episode of TB disease and those between 10 and 30 years of age also had significantly increased radiological pathology.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first to compare the M. tuberculosis genome to radiological pathology on the chest radiograph. We identified two variants significantly positively associated with more widespread radiological pathology and one with reduced pathology. Prospective studies are warranted to determine whether mutations associated with increased pathology also predict the spread of drug-resistant TB.

Nomogram to predict multidrug-resistant tuberculosis

Background

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is burgeoning globally, and has been a serious challenge in TB management. Clinically, the ability to identify MDR-TB is still limited, especially in smear-negative TB. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram for predicting MDR-TB.

Methods

Demographics and clinical characteristics of both MDR-TB and drug-susceptible TB patients were utilized to develop a nomogram for predicting MDR-TB. The LASSO regression method was applied to filter variables and select predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to construct a nomogram. The discriminatory ability of the model was determined by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Moreover, calibration analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA) of the model were performed. This study involved a second analysis of a completed prospective cohort study conducted in a country with a high TB burden.

Results

Five variables of TB patients were selected through the LASSO regression method, and a nomogram was built based on these variables. The predictive model yielded an AUC of 0.759 (95% CI, 0.719–0.799), and in the internal validation, the AUC was 0.757 (95% CI, 0.715–0.793). The predictive model was well-calibrated, and DCA showed that if the threshold probability of MDR-TB was between 70 and 90%, using the proposed nomogram to predict MDR-TB would obtain a net benefit.

Conclusions

In this study, a nomogram was constructed that incorporated five demographic and clinical characteristics of TB patients. The nomogram may be of great value for the prediction of MDR-TB in patients with sputum-free or smear-negative TB.

Protection of healthcare workers against transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in hospitals: a review of the evidence

Background

Employees in contact with infectious tuberculosis (TB) patients in healthcare facilities of low-incidence countries are still at considerable risk of acquiring TB infections. However, formal precautions recommended on the protection of healthcare workers may not only vary from country to country but also within a single country. The objective of this study was to compare current guidelines with respect to hospital infection control of TB, focusing on common shared priorities and discrepancies between sets of recommendations.

Methods

Five types of procedures captured in guidelines of the World Health Organization, the United States of America, the United Kingdom and Germany are compared and the underlying evidence is discussed.

Results

Uncontroversially, personal protection by respirators in the TB ward and during aerosol-generating procedures is key to reducing Mycobacterium tuberculosis exposure. However, there is no consensus on the types of masks that should be worn in different situations. Closely connected to this, there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the optimal date of removing sputum smear-negative and multidrug-resistant TB patients from isolation. Indeed, the use of notable new tools for this purpose, such as the highly sensitive PCR tests recommended by the World Health Organization for detecting TB/multidrug-resistant TB, have yet to be sufficiently incorporated into TB guidelines. Perceptions differ, too, as to whether long-term control measures for M. tuberculosis infections in healthcare workers by serial testing for latent TB infection should be established and, if so, how testing results should be interpreted.

Conclusions

Although the current recommendations on protection of healthcare workers are otherwise homogeneous, there are considerable discrepancies that have important implications for daily practice.

Current @WHO, US, UK and German recommendations on protecting employees in healthcare facilities against M. tuberculosis transmission show considerable practical discrepancies. Harmonisation and practical amendments of such guidelines is most desirable.http://bit.ly/2EzGlBN

Multidrug-resistant Disseminated Tuberculosis Related to Infliximab in a Patient with Ulcerative Colitis and Negative Evaluation for Latent Tuberculosis

Anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) is an effective biological agent for the treatment of moderate-to-severe active ulcerative colitis (UC) refractory to conventional therapy. On the other hand, anti-TNF therapy is strongly associated with a potential risk of tuberculosis (TB). Active TB is a critical complication that makes it difficult to treat patients who require anti-TNF for the treatment of UC refractory to conventional therapy. Based on the clinical guidelines, patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are strongly recommended to screen for latent TB before anti-TNF administration. Considering the possibility of active or reactivated TB related to anti-TNF therapy, all patients with IBD should be monitored closely for TB during anti-TNF therapy, irrespective of the screening results for latent TB. In particular, the risk of anti-TNF-related multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) in patients with IBD has not been elucidated. This paper reports the first case of disseminated MDR-TB that developed in a UC patient receiving infliximab despite the negative evaluation for latent TB screening.

Molecular characterization of pre-extensive drug resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Northeast Brazil

In Fortaleza, the capital of Ceara State, Brazil, the detection rate of tuberculosis (TB) in 2018 was 65.5/100,000 inhabitants with a cure rate of 59.1%, which is higher than the country average. This study investigated the risk factors associated with drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) and identified the drug-resistance phenotype and resistance-conferring mutations. The geographic distribution of DR-TB in Fortaleza, Brazil, was also determined. From March 2017 to February 2018, 41 DR-TB isolates and 69 drug-susceptible pulmonary TB isolates were obtained from patients seen at a referral hospital in Fortaleza, Brazil. Samples were subjected to phenotypic and genetic analysis of resistance; the spatial distribution of the participants was also analyzed. Primary resistance was high (50.9%) among participants. The following risk factors for DR were identified: being female ( p = 0.03), having diabetes ( p < 0.01), history of previous TB disease ( p < 0.01), and the number of intra-domiciliary contacts ( p < 0.01). Analysis by multiplex allele-specific polymerase chain reaction detected mutations in the genes katG (65.8%) , rpoB (43.9%), inhA promoter (14.6%), and gyrA (9.8%). Sequencing identified mutations in the the genes katG (75.6%), inhA promoter (19.5%), rpoB (85.4%), and gyrA (100%). There was no mutation in the rrs gene. Spatial analysis showed DR-TB isolates distributed in areas of low socioeconomic status in the city of Fortaleza. Our results emphasized the importance of detecting resistance to TB drugs. The resistance found in the gene gyrA is of concern due to the high number of pre-extensive DR-TB cases in Fortaleza.

Treatment as prevention and other interventions to reduce transmission of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) represents a major programmatic challenge at the national and global levels. Only ∼30% of patients with multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) were diagnosed, and ∼25% were initiated on treatment for MDR-TB in 2016. Increasing evidence now points towards primary transmission of DR-TB, rather than inadequate treatment, as the main driver of the DR-TB epidemic. The cornerstone of DR-TB transmission prevention should be earlier diagnosis and prompt initiation of effective treatment for all patients with DR-TB. Despite the extensive scale-up of Xpert^® MTB/RIF testing, major implementation barriers continue to limit its impact. Although there is longstanding evidence in support of the rapid impact of treatment on patient infectiousness, delays in the initiation of effective DR-TB treatment persist, resulting in ongoing transmission. However, it is also imperative to address the burden of latent drug-resistant tuberculous infection because it is estimated that many DR-TB patients will become infectious before seeking care and encounter various diagnostic delays before treatment. Addressing latent DR-TB primarily consists of identifying, treating and following the contacts of patients with MDR-TB, typically through household contact evaluation. Adjunctive measures, such as improved ventilation and use of germicidal ultraviolet technology can further reduce TB transmission in high-risk congregate settings. Although many gaps remain in our biological understanding of TB transmission, implementation barriers to early diagnosis and rapid initiation of effective DR-TB treatment can and must be overcome if we are to impact DR-TB incidence in the short and long term.

Outcomes of Community-Based Systematic Screening of Household Contacts of Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Myanmar

Screening of household contacts of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a crucial active TB case-finding intervention. Before 2016, this intervention had not been implemented in Myanmar, a country with a high MDR-TB burden. In 2016, a community-based screening of household contacts of MDR-TB patients using a systematic TB-screening algorithm (symptom screening and chest radiography followed by sputum smear microscopy and Xpert-MTB/RIF assays) was implemented in 33 townships in Myanmar. We assessed the implementation of this intervention, how well the screening algorithm was followed, and the yield of active TB. Data collected between April 2016 and March 2017 were analyzed using logistic and log-binomial regression. Of 620 household contacts of 210 MDR-TB patients enrolled for screening, 620 (100%) underwent TB symptom screening and 505 (81%) underwent chest radiography. Of 240 (39%) symptomatic household contacts, 71 (30%) were not further screened according to the algorithm. Children aged <15 years were less likely to follow the algorithm. Twenty-four contacts were diagnosed with active TB, including two rifampicin- resistant cases (yield of active TB = 3.9%, 95% CI: 2.3%-6.5%). The highest yield was found among children aged <5 years (10.0%, 95% CI: 3.6%-24.7%). Household contact screening should be strengthened, continued, and scaled up for all MDR-TB patients in Myanmar.

Projecting the impact of variable MDR-TB transmission efficiency on long-term epidemic trends in South Africa and Vietnam

Whether multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is less transmissible than drug-susceptible (DS-)TB on a population level is uncertain. Even in the absence of a genetic fitness cost, the transmission potential of individuals with MDR-TB may vary by infectiousness, frequency of contact, or duration of disease. We used a compartmental model to project the progression of MDR-TB epidemics in South Africa and Vietnam under alternative assumptions about the relative transmission efficiency of MDR-TB. Specifically, we considered three scenarios: consistently lower transmission efficiency for MDR-TB than for DS-TB; equal transmission efficiency; and an initial deficit in the transmission efficiency of MDR-TB that closes over time. We calibrated these scenarios with data from drug resistance surveys and projected epidemic trends to 2040. The incidence of MDR-TB was projected to expand in most scenarios, but the degree of expansion depended greatly on the future transmission efficiency of MDR-TB. For example, by 2040, we projected absolute MDR-TB incidence to account for 5% (IQR: 4–9%) of incident TB in South Africa and 14% (IQR: 9–26%) in Vietnam assuming consistently lower MDR-TB transmission efficiency, versus 15% (IQR: 8–27%)and 41% (IQR: 23–62%), respectively, assuming shrinking transmission efficiency deficits. Given future uncertainty, specific responses to halt MDR-TB transmission should be prioritized.

Drug-resistant tuberculosis in eastern Europe and central Asia: a time-series analysis of routine surveillance data

BACKGROUND

Among all WHO regions, the WHO European Region has the highest proportion of drug-resistant tuberculosis among new and retreated cases. The 18 high-priority countries in eastern Europe and central Asia account for 85% of the tuberculosis incidence and more than 90% of drug-resistant tuberculosis cases emerging in the region. We aimed to analyse time-series trends in notification rates of drug-resistant tuberculosis among new tuberculosis cases in the 18 high-priority countries in the WHO European Region.

METHODS

We used country data stored in WHO's global tuberculosis database. For each country, we calculated annual notification rates per 100 000 population of new tuberculosis cases and of drug-resistant tuberculosis among new cases reported from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2017. We computed annual percentage changes of notification rates and identified time-points of significant change in trends using the joinpoint regression method.

FINDINGS

All 17 countries with data (no data available from Turkmenistan) showed a significant decline in new tuberculosis notification rates in the most recent years since the last joinpoint if one was identified. Notification rates of drug-resistant tuberculosis showed diverse trends, with substantial year-to-year variation. In the most recent years, notification rates of drug-resistant tuberculosis among new tuberculosis cases were decreasing in two countries (Estonia and Latvia), increasing in eight countries (Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova [Republic of Moldova], Romania, Russia [Russian Federation], Tajikistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan), and stable in seven countries (Armenia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, and Turkey).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that countries in the WHO European Region are more successful in controlling drug-susceptible tuberculosis than drug-resistant forms, and as a result, the proportion of drug-resistant strains among newly notified patients with tuberculosis is increasing in many settings. Two countries showed that it is possible to decrease incidence of both drug-susceptible and drug-resistant tuberculosis. If no additional efforts are made in prevention and care of patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis, further decline of the tuberculosis burden will be halted. Further studies are needed to investigate the success stories and document the most effective interventions to reach the target to end tuberculosis by 2030.

FUNDING

United States Agency for International Development.

Heterogeneous infectiousness in mathematical models of tuberculosis: A systematic review

TB mathematical models employ various assumptions and approaches in dealing with the heterogeneous infectiousness of persons with active TB. We reviewed existing approaches and considered the relationship between them and existing epidemiological evidence. We searched the following electronic bibliographic databases from inception to 9 October 2018: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Biosis, Global Health and Scopus. Two investigators extracted data using a standardised data extraction tool. We included in the review any transmission dynamic model of M. tuberculosis transmission explicitly simulating heterogeneous infectiousness of person with active TB. We extracted information including: study objective, model structure, number of active TB compartments, factors used to stratify the active TB compartment, relative infectiousness of each active TB compartment and any intervention evaluated in the model. Our search returned 1899 unique references, of which the full text of 454 records were assessed for eligibility, and 99 studies met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 89 used compartmental models implemented with ordinary differential equations, while the most common approach to stratification of the active TB compartment was to incorporate two levels of infectiousness. However, various clinical characteristics were used to stratify the active TB compartments, and models differed as to whether they permitted transition between these states. Thirty-four models stratified the infectious compartment according to sputum smear status or pulmonary involvement, while 18 models stratified based on health care-related factors. Variation in infectiousness associated with drug-resistant M. tuberculosis was the rationale for stratifying active TB in 33 models, with these models consistently assuming that drug-resistant active TB cases were less infectious. Given the evidence of extensive heterogeneity in infectiousness of individuals with active TB, an argument exists for incorporating heterogeneous infectiousness, although this should be considered in light of the objectives of the study and the research question. PROSPERO Registration: CRD42019111936.

Transmissibility and potential for disease progression of drug resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To measure the association between phenotypic drug resistance and the risk of tuberculosis infection and disease among household contacts of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.

SETTING

106 district health centers in Lima, Peru between September 2009 and September 2012.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

10 160 household contacts of 3339 index patients with tuberculosis were classified on the basis of the drug resistance profile of the patient: 6189 were exposed to drug susceptible strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, 1659 to strains resistant to isoniazid or rifampicin, and 1541 to strains that were multidrug resistant (resistant to isoniazid and rifampicin).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Tuberculosis infection (positive tuberculin skin test) and the incidence of active disease (diagnosed by positive sputum smear or chest radiograph) after 12 months of follow-up.

RESULTS

Household contacts exposed to patients with multidrug resistant tuberculosis had an 8% (95% confidence interval 4% to 13%) higher risk of infection by the end of follow-up compared with household contacts of patients with drug sensitive tuberculosis. The relative hazard of incident tuberculosis disease did not differ among household contacts exposed to multidrug resistant tuberculosis and those exposed to drug sensitive tuberculosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval 0.9 to 1.83).

CONCLUSION

Household contacts of patients with multidrug resistant tuberculosis were at higher risk of tuberculosis infection than contacts exposed to drug sensitive tuberculosis. The risk of developing tuberculosis disease did not differ among contacts in both groups. The evidence invites guideline producers to take action by targeting drug resistant and drug sensitive tuberculosis, such as early detection and effective treatment of infection and disease.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00676754.

Implementation of screening and management of household contacts of tuberculosis cases in Daru, Papua New Guinea

SETTING

Daru Island, Western Province, Papua New Guinea (PNG).

OBJECTIVE

To describe the implementation of a screening programme for household contacts of tuberculosis (TB) cases residing on Daru Island.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective descriptive study evaluating two periods of implementation: introduction and expansion of a screening programme for household contacts of drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) cases (March 2016 to September 2017), and inclusion of drug-susceptible TB (DS-TB) cases with provision of preventive therapy for eligible contacts between October 2017 and March 2018.

RESULTS

In the first period, the contact screening programme was established and strengthened by increasing coverage over time. There was a large number of contacts (median 8) in each household, and a high uptake of screening. In the second period of evaluation, respectively 412 and 223 contacts of 42 DS-TB and 25 DR-TB index cases were screened. Overall, 156 (24.6%) contacts reported TB-related symptoms and 9 (1.4%) were diagnosed with active TB. All 9 commenced TB treatment: 5 had DS-TB and 4 had DR-TB. Of 82 child contacts of DS-TB cases eligible for preventive therapy, 57 (69.5%) commenced treatment and 45 completed treatment.

CONCLUSION

Community-based household contact screening and management was successfully implemented under programme conditions in this high burden TB and DR-TB setting in PNG.

The relative fitness of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a modelling study of household transmission in Peru

The relative fitness of drug-resistant versus susceptible bacteria in an environment dictates resistance prevalence. Estimates for the relative fitness of resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) strains are highly heterogeneous and mostly derived from in vitro experiments. Measuring fitness in the field allows us to determine how the environment influences the spread of resistance. We designed a household structured, stochastic mathematical model to estimate the fitness costs associated with multidrug resistance (MDR) carriage in Mtb in Lima, Peru during 2010–2013. By fitting the model to data from a large prospective cohort study of TB disease in household contacts, we estimated the fitness, relative to susceptible strains with a fitness of 1, of MDR-Mtb to be 0.32 (95% credible interval: 0.15–0.62) or 0.38 (0.24–0.61), if only transmission or progression to disease, respectively, was affected. The relative fitness of MDR-Mtb increased to 0.56 (0.42–0.72) when the fitness cost influenced both transmission and progression to disease equally. We found the average relative fitness of MDR-Mtb circulating within households in Lima, Peru during 2010–2013 to be significantly lower than concurrent susceptible Mtb. If these fitness levels do not change, then existing TB control programmes are likely to keep MDR-TB prevalence at current levels in Lima, Peru.

Primary drug resistance among tuberculosis patients with diabetes mellitus: a retrospective study among 7223 cases in China

Background

Given the high burden of tuberculosis (TB) and diabetes mellitus (DM) in China and the worse outcome of TB-DM cases (refers to TB patients with diabetes), and drug-resistant tuberculosis cases (DR-TB), it is of great significance to explore the association between diabetes and primary DR-TB for TB elimination target in China. We assessed the clinical characteristics, drug-resistance profile, and increased risk of resistance among TB-DM patients across China from 2004 to 2017.

Method

7223 cases with drug-susceptibility data were collected from Shandong, China. Categorical baseline characteristics of new TB cases were compared by DM status using Fisher's exact or Pearson Chi-square test. Univariable analysis and multivariable logistic models were used to estimate the association between diabetes and different drug-resistance profiles and the risk factors of primary drug resistance among TB-DM cases.

Result

Of 7223 newly diagnosed TB patients, 426 (5.90%) were TB-DM cases. TB-DM csaes were more likely to be older，accompanied by higher body mass index (BMI) and hypertension than TB-no DM cases (refers to TB patients without diabetes). The rates of DR-TB (21.83% vs 16.96%), polydrug resistant TB (PDR-TB, 6.10% vs 3.80%), isoniazid (INH)+streptomycin (SM)-resistant TB (4.93% vs 3.13%), and SM-resistant TB (16.20% vs 11.7%) among TB-DM group were higher than TB-no DM group, P<0.05. DM was significantly associated with any DR-TB (adjusted (aOR):1.30; 95% CI, 1.02-1.65), SM-related resistance (aOR: 1.43; 95% CI, 1.08-1.88), PDR-TB (OR: 1.57; 95% CI, 1.04-2.36; aOR: 1.59; 95% CI, 1.04-2.44), compared with pan-susceptible TB patients (P<0.05).

Conclusion

Our study indicated that TB-DM groups had a higher proportion of drug resistance than TB groups, and diabetes was identified as a risk factor of total DR, PDR, SM resistance and INH+SM resistance among newly diagnosed TB cases. Good management of diabetes and TB infection screening program among DM patients might be necessary for improving TB control in China.

Development of a Predictive Model of Tuberculosis Transmission among Household Contacts

Background

Household contacts of patients with tuberculosis (TB) are at great risk of TB infection. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model of TB transmission among household contacts.

Method

This was a secondary analysis of data from a prospective cohort study, in which a total of 700 TB patients and 3417 household contacts were enrolled between 2010 and 2013 at two study sites in Peru. The incidence of secondary TB cases among household contacts of index cases was recorded. The LASSO regression method was used to reduce the data dimension and to filter variables. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to develop the predictive model, and internal validation was performed. A nomogram was constructed to display the model, and the AUC was calculated. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were also evaluated.

Results

The incidence of TB disease among the contacts of index cases was 4.4% (149/3417). Ten variables (gender, age, TB history, diabetes, HIV, index patient's drug resistance, socioeconomic status, spoligotypes, and the index-contact share sleeping room status) filtered through the LASSO regression technique were finally included in the predictive model. The model showed good discriminatory ability, with an AUC value of 0.761 (95% CI, 0.723–0.800) for the derivation and 0.759 (95% CI, 0.717–0.796) for the internal validation. The predictive model showed good calibration, and the DCA demonstrated that the model was clinically useful.

Conclusion

A predictive model was developed that incorporates characteristics of both the index patients and the contacts, which may be of great value for the individualized prediction of TB transmission among household contacts.

High prevalence of infection and low incidence of disease in child contacts of patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to measure the prevalence and incidence of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) and tuberculosis (TB) disease in children in close contact with patients with drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) in a country with high DR-TB prevalence.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This is a prospective cohort study of paediatric contacts of adult patients with pulmonary DR-TB in Armenia. Children were screened using tuberculin skin test, interferon-gamma release assay and chest X-ray at the initial consultation, and were reassessed every 3-6 months for a period of 24 months. Children did not receive preventive treatment.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence and incidence of LTBI and TB disease; factors associated with prevalent LTBI.

RESULTS

At initial evaluation, 3 of the 150 children included were diagnosed with TB disease (2.0%). The prevalence of LTBI was 58.7%. The incidence of LTBI was 19.9 per 100 children per year, and was especially high during the first 6 months of follow-up (33.3 per 100 children per year). No additional cases with incident disease were diagnosed during follow-up. After adjustment, prevalent LTBI was significantly associated with the child's age, sleeping in the same house, higher household density, the index case's age, positive smear result and presence of lung cavities.

CONCLUSIONS

Children in close contact with patients with DR-TB or in contact with very contagious patients had an increased risk of prevalent LTBI. Although none of the children developed TB disease during a 2-year follow-up period, screening for symptoms of TB disease, based on the prevalence of disease at recruitment, together with follow-up and repeated testing of non-infected contacts, is highly recommended in paediatric contacts of patients with DR-TB.

Prevention of tuberculosis in household members: estimates of children eligible for treatment

Objective

To estimate of the number of children younger than 5 years who were household contacts of people with tuberculosis and were eligible for tuberculosis preventive treatment in 2017.

Methods

To estimate the number of eligible children, we obtained national values for the number of notified cases of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in 2017, the proportion of the population younger than 5 years in 2017 and average household size from published sources. We obtained global values for the number of active tuberculosis cases per household with an index case and for the prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection among children younger than 5 years who were household contacts of a tuberculosis case through systematic reviews, meta-analysis and Poisson regression models.

Findings

The estimated number of children younger than 5 years eligible for tuberculosis preventive treatment in 2017 globally was 1.27 million (95% uncertainty interval, UI: 1.24–1.31), which corresponded to an estimated global coverage of preventive treatment in children of 23% at best. By country, the estimated number ranged from less than one in the Bahamas, Iceland, Luxembourg and Malta to 350 000 (95% UI: 320 000–380 000) in India. Regionally, the highest estimates were for the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region (510 000; 95% UI: 450 000–580 000) and the WHO African Region (470 000; 95% UI: 440 000–490 000).

Conclusion

Tuberculosis preventive treatment in children was underutilized globally in 2017. Treatment should be scaled up to help eliminate the pool of tuberculosis infection and achieve the End TB Strategy targets.

Extensive global movement of multidrug-resistantM. tuberculosis strains revealed by whole-genome analysis

Background

While the international spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains is an acknowledged public health threat, a broad and more comprehensive examination of the global spread of MDR-tuberculosis (TB) using whole-genome sequencing has not yet been performed.

Methods

In a global dataset of 5310 M. tuberculosis whole-genome sequences isolated from five continents, we performed a phylogenetic analysis to identify and characterise clades of MDR-TB with respect to geographic dispersion.

Results

Extensive international dissemination of MDR-TB was observed, with identification of 32 migrant MDR-TB clades with descendants isolated in 17 unique countries. Relatively recent movement of strains from both Beijing and non-Beijing lineages indicated successful global spread of varied genetic backgrounds. Migrant MDR-TB clade members shared relatively recent common ancestry, with a median estimate of divergence of 13–27 years. Migrant extensively drug-resistant (XDR)-TB clades were not observed, although development of XDR-TB within migratory MDR-TB clades was common.

Conclusions

Application of genomic techniques to investigate global MDR migration patterns revealed extensive global spread of MDR clades between countries of varying TB burden. Further expansion of genomic studies to incorporate isolates from diverse global settings into a single analysis, as well as data sharing platforms that facilitate genomic data sharing across country lines, may allow for future epidemiological analyses to monitor for international transmission of MDR-TB. In addition, efforts to perform routine whole-genome sequencing on all newly identified M. tuberculosis, like in England, will serve to better our understanding of the transmission dynamics of MDR-TB globally.

Tuberculosis and HIV-An Update on the "Cursed Duet" in Children

HIV and tuberculosis (TB) often occur together with each exacerbating the other. Improvements in vertical transmission prevention has reduced the number of HIV-infected children being born and early antiretroviral therapy (ART) protects against tuberculosis. However, with delayed HIV diagnosis, HIV-infected infants often present with tuberculosis co-infection. The number of HIV exposed uninfected children has increased and these infants have high exposure to TB and may be more immunologically vulnerable due to HIV exposure in utero. Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunization shortly after birth is essential for preventing severe TB in infancy. With early infant HIV diagnosis and ART, disseminated BCG is no longer an issue. TB prevention therapy should be implemented for contacts of a source case and for all HIV-infected individuals over a year of age. Although infection can be identified through skin tests or interferon gamma release assays, the non-availability of these tests should not preclude prevention therapy, once active TB has been excluded. Therapeutic options have moved from isoniazid only for 6-9 months to shorter regimens. Prevention therapy after exposure to a source case with resistant TB should also be implemented, but should not prevent pivotal prevention trials already under way. A microbiological diagnosis for TB remains the gold standard because of increasing drug resistance. Antiretroviral therapy for rifampicin co-treatment requires adaptation for those on lopinavir-ritonavir, which requires super-boosting with additional ritonavir. For those with drug resistant TB, the main problems are identification and overlapping toxicity between antiretroviral and anti-TB therapy. In spite of renewed focus and improved interventions, infants are still vulnerable to TB.

A Case-Control Study to Identify Community Venues Associated with Genetically-clustered, Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis Disease in Lima, Peru

BACKGROUND

The majority of tuberculosis transmission occurs in community settings. Our primary aim in this study was to assess the association between exposure to community venues and multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis. Our secondary aim was to describe the social networks of MDR tuberculosis cases and controls.

METHODS

We recruited laboratory-confirmed MDR tuberculosis cases and community controls that were matched on age and sex. Whole-genome sequencing was used to identify genetically clustered cases. Venue tracing interviews (nonblinded) were conducted to enumerate community venues frequented by participants. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between MDR tuberculosis and person-time spent in community venues. A location-based social network was constructed, with respondents connected if they reported frequenting the same venue, and an exponential random graph model (ERGM) was fitted to model the network.

RESULTS

We enrolled 59 cases and 65 controls. Participants reported 729 unique venues. The mean number of venues reported was similar in both groups (P = .92). Person-time in healthcare venues (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.67, P = .01), schools (aOR = 1.53, P < .01), and transportation venues (aOR = 1.25, P = .03) was associated with MDR tuberculosis. Healthcare venues, markets, cinemas, and transportation venues were commonly shared among clustered cases. The ERGM indicated significant community segregation between cases and controls. Case networks were more densely connected.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to healthcare venues, schools, and transportation venues was associated with MDR tuberculosis. Intervention across the segregated network of case venues may be necessary to effectively stem transmission.

Active contact tracing beyond the household in multidrug resistant tuberculosis in Vietnam: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Currently in Vietnam contact tracing for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) entails passive case finding among symptomatic household contacts who present themselves for diagnosis. Close contacts of MDR-TB cases are therefore not identified adequately. We assessed the added value of active contact tracing within and beyond households using social network questionnaires to identify close contacts of MDR-TB patients in Vietnam.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study using social network questionnaires in which contacts were identified by MDR-TB patients, including contacts from 'high risk' places like work. Contacts of MDR-TB patients were followed up and screened over a period of at least 6 months. This included two active screenings and any unscheduled passive screening of self-referred contacts during the study period.

RESULTS

Four hundred seventeen contacts of 99 index cases were recruited, 325 (77.9%) and 160/417 (38.4%) contacts participated in the first and second screenings, respectively. The first screening detected one TB case but the bacteria were not MDR. From passive screening, a household contact was diagnosed with TB meningitis but not through our active approach. Social network analysis showed that only 1/17 (5.9%) high-risk places agreed to cooperate and were included in the screening, and no MDR-TB cases were detected. There were two pairs of index cases (identified separately) who were found to be contacts of each other and who had been diagnosed before the study started.

CONCLUSIONS

No new MDR-TB cases were detected using social network analysis of nearly 100 MDR-TB index cases, likely due to a relatively short follow up time, and loss to follow up (lack of cooperation from contacts or high risk places and lack of available resources in the National Tuberculosis Control Programme).

Transmission of drug-resistant tuberculosis in HIV-endemic settings

The emergence and expansion of the multidrug-resistant tuberculosis epidemic is a threat to the global control of tuberculosis. Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis is the result of the selection of resistance-conferring mutations during inadequate antituberculosis treatment. However, HIV has a profound effect on the natural history of tuberculosis, manifesting in an increased rate of disease progression, leading to increased transmission and amplification of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Interventions specific to HIV-endemic areas are urgently needed to block tuberculosis transmission. These interventions should include a combination of rapid molecular diagnostics and improved chemotherapy to shorten the duration of infectiousness, implementation of infection control measures, and active screening of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis contacts, with prophylactic regimens for individuals without evidence of disease. Development and improvement of the efficacy of interventions will require a greater understanding of the factors affecting the transmission of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in HIV-endemic settings, including population-based molecular epidemiology studies. In this Series article, we review what we know about the transmission of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in settings with high burdens of HIV and define the research priorities required to develop more effective interventions, to diminish ongoing transmission and the amplification of drug resistance.

Building capacity for advances in tuberculosis research; proceedings of the third RePORT international meeting

RePORT International is a global network of research sites in India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, China, and the Philippines dedicated to collaborative tuberculosis research in the context of HIV. A standardized research protocol (the Common Protocol) guides the enrollment of participants with active pulmonary tuberculosis and contacts into observational cohorts. The establishment of harmonized clinical data and bio-repositories will allow cutting-edge, large-scale advances in the understanding of tuberculosis, including identification of novel biomarkers for progression to active tuberculosis and relapse after treatment. The RePORT International infrastructure aims to support research capacity development through enabling globally-diverse collaborations. To that end, representatives from the RePORT International network sites, funding agencies, and other stakeholders gathered together in Brazil in September 2017 to present updates on relevant research findings and discuss ideas for collaboration. Presenters emphasized research involving biomarker identification for incipient tuberculosis, host immunity and pharmacogenomics, co-morbidities such as HIV and type 2 diabetes mellitus, and tuberculosis transmission in vulnerable and high-risk populations. Currently, 962 active TB participants and 670 household contacts have contributed blood, sputum, urine and microbes to in-country biorepositories. Cross-consortium collaborations have begun sharing data and specimens to analyze molecular and cytokine predictive patterns.

Tuberculosis susceptibility and protection in children

Children represent both a clinically important population susceptible to tuberculosis and a key group in whom to study intrinsic and vaccine-induced mechanisms of protection. After exposure to Mycobacterium tuberculosis, children aged under 5 years are at high risk of progressing first to tuberculosis infection, then to tuberculosis disease and possibly disseminated forms of tuberculosis, with accompanying high risks of morbidity and mortality. Children aged 5-10 years are somewhat protected, until risk increases again in adolescence. Furthermore, neonatal BCG programmes show the clearest proven benefit of vaccination against tuberculosis. Case-control comparisons from key cohorts, which recruited more than 15 000 children and adolescents in total, have identified that the ratio of monocytes to lymphocytes, activated CD4 T cell count, and a blood RNA signature could be correlates of risk for developing tuberculosis. Further studies of protected and susceptible populations are necessary to guide development of novel tuberculosis vaccines that could facilitate the achievement of WHO's goal to eliminate deaths from tuberculosis in childhood.