Age-specific malaria mortality rates in the KEMRI/CDC health and demographic surveillance system in western Kenya, 2003-2010

Public health determinants of child malaria mortality: a surveillance study within Siaya County, Western Kenya

BACKGROUND

Malaria deaths among children have been declining worldwide during the last two decades. Despite preventive, epidemiologic and therapy-development work, mortality rate decline has stagnated in western Kenya resulting in persistently high child malaria morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to identify public health determinants influencing the high burden of malaria deaths among children in this region.

METHODS

A total of 221,929 children, 111,488 females and 110,441 males, under the age of 5 years were enrolled in the Kenya Medical Research Institute/Center for Disease Control Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KEMRI/CDC HDSS) study area in Siaya County during the period 2003-2013. Cause of death was determined by use of verbal autopsy. Age-specific mortality rates were computed, and cox proportional hazard regression was used to model time to malaria death controlling for the socio-demographic factors. A variety of demographic, social and epidemiologic factors were examined.

RESULTS

In total 8,696 (3.9%) children died during the study period. Malaria was the most prevalent cause of death and constituted 33.2% of all causes of death, followed by acute respiratory infections (26.7%) and HIV/AIDS related deaths (18.6%). There was a marked decrease in overall mortality rate from 2003 to 2013, except for a spike in the rates in 2008. The hazard of death differed between age groups with the youngest having the highest hazard of death HR 6.07 (95% CI 5.10-7.22). Overall, the risk attenuated with age and mortality risks were limited beyond 4 years of age. Longer distance to healthcare HR of 1.44 (95% CI 1.29-1.60), l ow maternal education HR 3.91 (95% CI 1.86-8.22), and low socioeconomic status HR 1.44 (95% CI 1.26-1.64) were all significantly associated with increased hazard of malaria death among children.

CONCLUSIONS

While child mortality due to malaria in the study area in Western Kenya, has been decreasing, a final step toward significant risk reduction is yet to be accomplished. This study highlights residual proximal determinants of risk which can further inform preventive actions.

Impact of Environmental Modifications on the Ecology, Epidemiology, and Pathogenesis of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax Malaria in East Africa

Food insecurity, recurrent famine, and poverty threaten the health of millions of African residents. Construction of dams and rural irrigation schemes is key to solving these problems. The sub-Saharan Africa International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research addresses major knowledge gaps and challenges in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria control and elimination in malaria-endemic areas of Kenya and Ethiopia where major investments in water resource development are taking place. This article highlights progress of the International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research in malaria vector ecology and behavior, epidemiology, and pathogenesis since its inception in 2017. Studies conducted in four field sites in Kenya and Ethiopia show that dams and irrigation increased the abundance, stability, and productivity of larval habitats, resulting in increased malaria transmission and a greater disease burden. These field studies, together with hydrological and malaria transmission modeling, enhance the ability to predict the impact of water resource development projects on vector larval ecology and malaria risks, thereby facilitating the development of optimal water and environmental management practices in the context of malaria control efforts. Intersectoral collaborations and community engagement are crucial to develop and implement cost-effective malaria control strategies that meet food security needs while controlling malaria burden in local communities.

Asymptomatic and submicroscopic Plasmodium infections in an area before and during integrated vector control in Homa Bay, western Kenya

BACKGROUND

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been the primary vector control strategy until indoor residual spraying (IRS) was added in Homa Bay and Migori Counties in western Kenya. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of LLINs integrated with IRS on the prevalence of asymptomatic and submicroscopic Plasmodium infections in Homa Bay County.

METHODS

A two-stage cluster sampling procedure was employed to enroll study participants aged ≥ 6 months old. Four consecutive community cross-sectional surveys for Plasmodium infection were conducted in residents of Homa Bay county, Kenya. Prior to the start of the study, all study households received LLINs, which were distributed between June 2017 and March 2018. The first (February 2018) and second (June 2018) surveys were conducted before and after the first round of IRS (Feb-Mar 2018), while the third (February 2019) and fourth (June 2019) surveys were conducted before and after the second application of IRS (February-March 2019). Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to prepare thick and thin smears for microscopic determination and qPCR diagnosis of Plasmodium genus.

RESULTS

Plasmodium spp. infection prevalence by microscopy was 18.5% (113/610) before IRS, 14.2% (105/737) and 3.3% (24/720) after the first round of IRS and 1.3% (11/849) after the second round of IRS (p < 0.0001). Submicroscopic (blood smear negative, qPCR positive) parasitaemia reduced from 18.9% (115/610) before IRS to 5.4% (46/849) after IRS (p < 0.0001). However, the proportion of PCR positive infections that were submicroscopic increased from 50.4% (115/228) to 80.7% (46/57) over the study period (p < 0.0001). Similarly, while the absolute number and proportions of microscopy positives which were asymptomatic decreased from 12% (73/610) to 1.2% (9/849) (p < 0.0001), the relative proportion increased. Geometric mean density of P. falciparum parasitaemia decreased over the 2-year study period (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that two annual rounds of IRS integrated with LLINs significantly reduced the prevalence of Plasmodium parasitaemia, while the proportion of asymptomatic and submicroscopic infections increased. To reduce cryptic P. falciparum transmission and improve malaria control, strategies aimed at reducing the number of asymptomatic and submicroscopic infections should be considered.

Temporal trends in molecular markers of drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum in human blood and profiles of corresponding resistant markers in mosquito oocysts in Asembo, western Kenya

BACKGROUND

Over the last two decades, the scale-up of vector control and changes in the first-line anti-malarial, from chloroquine (CQ) to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) and then to artemether-lumefantrine (AL), have resulted in significant decreases in malaria burden in western Kenya. This study evaluated the long-term effects of control interventions on molecular markers of Plasmodium falciparum drug resistance using parasites obtained from humans and mosquitoes at discrete time points.

METHODS

Dried blood spot samples collected in 2012 and 2017 community surveys in Asembo, Kenya were genotyped by Sanger sequencing for markers associated with resistance to SP (Pfdhfr, Pfdhps), CQ, AQ, lumefantrine (Pfcrt, Pfmdr1) and artemisinin (Pfk13). Temporal trends in the prevalence of these markers, including data from 2012 to 2017 as well as published data from 1996, 2001, 2007 from same area, were analysed. The same markers from mosquito oocysts collected in 2012 were compared with results from human blood samples.

RESULTS

The prevalence of SP dhfr/dhps quintuple mutant haplotype C₅₀I₅₁R₅₉N₁₀₈I₁₆₄/S₄₃₆G₄₃₇E₅₄₀A₅₈₁A₆₁₃ increased from 19.7% in 1996 to 86.0% in 2012, while an increase in the sextuple mutant haplotype C₅₀I₅₁R₅₉N₁₀₈I₁₆₄/H₄₃₆G₄₃₇E₅₄₀A₅₈₁A₆₁₃ containing Pfdhps-436H was found from 10.5% in 2012 to 34.6% in 2017. Resistant Pfcrt-76 T declined from 94.6% in 2007 to 18.3% in 2012 and 0.9% in 2017. Mutant Pfmdr1-86Y decreased across years from 74.8% in 1996 to zero in 2017, mutant Pfmdr1-184F and wild Pfmdr1-D1246 increased from 17.9% to 58.9% in 2007 to 55.9% and 90.1% in 2017, respectively. Pfmdr1 haplotype N₈₆F₁₈₄S₁₀₃₄N₁₀₄₂D₁₂₄₆ increased from 11.0% in 2007 to 49.6% in 2017. No resistant mutations in Pfk13 were found. Prevalence of Pfdhps-436H was lower while prevalence of Pfcrt-76 T was higher in mosquitoes than in human blood samples.

CONCLUSION

This study showed an increased prevalence of dhfr/dhps resistant markers over 20 years with the emergence of Pfdhps-436H mutant a decade ago in Asembo. The reversal of Pfcrt from CQ-resistant to CQ-sensitive genotype occurred following 19 years of CQ withdrawal. No Pfk13 markers associated with artemisinin resistance were detected, but the increased haplotype of Pfmdr1 N₈₆F₁₈₄S₁₀₃₄N₁₀₄₂D₁₂₄₆ was observed. The differences in prevalence of Pfdhps-436H and Pfcrt-76 T SNPs between two hosts and the role of mosquitoes in the transmission of drug resistant parasites require further investigation.

The emergence of chloroquine-sensitive Plasmodium falciparum is influenced by selected communities in some parts of the Central Region of Ghana

Background

The return of chloroquine-sensitive Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa countries offers the opportunity for the reintroduction of chloroquine (CQ) either in combination with other drugs or as a single therapy for the management of malaria. This study assesses the influence of individual study sites on the selection of CQ sensitive P. falciparum markers in the Central region of Ghana.

Methods

Genomic DNA was extracted from an archived filter paper blood blot from Cape Coast, Elmina, Assin Fosu, and Twifo Praso using the Chelex DNA extraction method. The age metadata of the patients from whom the blood spots were taken was collected. The prevalence of CQ-sensitive markers of pfcrt K76 and pfmdr1 N86 was performed using nested PCR and RFLP. The data were analysed using Chi-square and Odd ratio.

Results

The overall prevalence of CQ-sensitive P. falciparum markers, pfcrt K76 and pfmdr1 N86 in the Central Region of Ghana were 142 out of 184 (77.17%) and 180 out of 184 (97.83%), respectively. The distribution of pfcrt K76 was assessed among the age groups per the individual study sites. 12 out of 33 (36.36%), 8 out of 33 (24.24%) and 6 out of 33 (18.18%) of pfcrt K76 CQ-sensitive marker were isolated from age 0 to 5 years, 16 to 30 years and 31 to 45 years old respectively at Cape Coast. Assin Fosu and Twifo Praso had the highest pfcrt K76 prevalence in 0–5 years, followed by 16–30 years and 6–15 years of age. The results showed that there was a significant prevalence of pfcrt K76 in all study sites; Cape Coast (χ² = 26.48, p < 0.0001), Assin Fosu (χ² = 37.67, p < 0.0001), Twifo Praso (χ² = 32.25, p < 0.0001) and Elmina (χ² = 17.88, p < 0.0001). Again, the likelihood to detect pfcrt K76 (OR (95% CI) was 7.105 (3.118–17.14), p < 0.0001 and pfmdr1 (2.028 (1.065–3.790), p < 0.001) among P. falciparum isolates from Cape Coast to be seven times and two times, respectively.

Conclusion

The study showed a significant selection and expansion of chloroquine-sensitive P. falciparum markers in all the selected study areas in the Central region. This finding has a significant implication for the future treatment, management, and control of P. falciparum malaria.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-03985-8.

Accuracy of verbal autopsy, clinical data and minimally invasive autopsy in the evaluation of malaria-specific mortality: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Global malaria mortality estimates are hindered by the low reliability of the verbal autopsy (VA) and the clinical records, the most common sources of information used to estimate malaria-specific mortality. We aimed to determine the accuracy of these tools, as well as of the minimally invasive autopsy (MIA), a needle-based postmortem sampling method, to identify malaria-specific mortality in a large series of deceased patients from Mozambique, using complete autopsy as the gold standard.

METHODS

Observational study that included 264 deaths, occurring at a tertiary level hospital in Mozambique, from 1 November 2013 to 31 March 2015 (17 months-long period). Clinical data were abstracted, a computer coded VA was completed using the clinical data as source of information, and an MIA followed by a complete autopsy were performed. Screening for malaria infection was conducted postmortem to all participants using molecular and histological techniques (PCR and immunohistochemistry).

FINDINGS

Malaria infection was considered the cause of death in 6/264 (2.3%) cases: 2/54 children (3.7%, both less than 5 years old) and 4/57 (7.0%) maternal deaths. The sensitivity and specificity of the VA, the clinical data and the MIA to identify malaria-specific deaths were 33.3% and 96.1%, 66.7% and 96.1%, and 100% and 100%, respectively. In addition, malaria was identified as a possible contributor in 14 additional patients who died of other diseases. These cases were also accurately identified by the MIA (sensitivity 82.4%, specificity 100%).

INTERPRETATION

The high sensitivity and specificity of the MIA in identifying malaria may help to improve current estimates of malaria-specific mortality in endemic areas.

Increased investment in gametocytes in asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections in the wet season

Background

Transmission stemming from asymptomatic infections is increasingly being recognized as a threat to malaria elimination. In many regions, malaria transmission is seasonal. It is not well understood whether Plasmodium falciparum modulates its investment in transmission to coincide with seasonal vector abundance.

Methods

We sampled 1116 asymptomatic individuals in the wet season, when vectors are abundant, and 1743 in the dry season, in two sites in western Kenya, representing different transmission intensities (Chulaimbo, moderate transmission, and Homa Bay, low transmission). Blood samples were screened for P. falciparum by qPCR, and gametocytes by pfs25 RT-qPCR.

Results

Parasite prevalence by qPCR was 27.1% (Chulaimbo, dry), 48.2% (Chulaimbo, wet), 9.4% (Homabay, dry), and 7.8% (Homabay, wet). Mean parasite densities did not differ between seasons (P = 0.562). pfs25 transcripts were detected in 119/456 (26.1%) of infections. In the wet season, fewer infections harbored detectable gametocytes (22.3% vs. 33.8%, P = 0.009), but densities were 3-fold higher (wet: 3.46 transcripts/uL, dry: 1.05 transcripts/uL, P < 0.001). In the dry season, 4.0% of infections carried gametocytes at moderate-to-high densities likely infective (> 1 gametocyte per 2 uL blood), compared to 7.9% in the wet season. Children aged 5–15 years harbored 76.7% of infections with gametocytes at moderate-to-high densities.

Conclusions

Parasites increase their investment in transmission in the wet season, reflected by higher gametocyte densities. Despite increased gametocyte densities, parasite density remained similar across seasons and were often below the limit of detection of microscopy or rapid diagnostic test, thus a large proportion of infective infections would escape population screening in the wet season. Seasonal changes of gametocytemia in asymptomatic infections need to be considered when designing malaria control measures.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-020-05761-6.

Conceptual frameworks for understanding the acceptability and feasibility of the minimally invasive autopsy to determine cause of death: Findings from the CADMIA Study in western Kenya

Establishing the cause of death (CoD) is critical to better understanding health and prioritizing health investments, however the use of full post-mortem examination is rare in most low and middle-income counties for multiple reasons. The use of minimally invasive autopsy (MIA) approaches, such as needle biopsies, presents an alternate means to assess CoD. In order to understand the feasibility and acceptability of MIA among communities in western Kenya, we conducted focus groups and in-depth interviews with next-of-kin of recently deceased persons, community leaders and health care workers in Siaya and Kisumu counties. Results suggest two conceptual framework can be drawn, one with facilitating factors for acceptance of MIA due to the ability to satisfy immediate needs related to interest in learning CoD or protecting social status and honoring the deceased), and one framework covering barriers to acceptance of MIA, for reasons relating to the failure to serve an existing need, and/or the exacerbation of an already difficult time.

Predictors of health workers' knowledge about artesunate-based severe malaria treatment recommendations in government and faith-based hospitals in Kenya

Background

Health workers’ knowledge deficiencies about artesunate-based severe malaria treatment recommendations have been reported. However, predictors of the treatment knowledge have not been examined. In this paper, predictors of artesunate-based treatment knowledge among inpatient health workers in two hospital sectors in Kenya are reported.

Methods

Secondary analysis of 367 and 330 inpatient health workers randomly selected and interviewed at 47 government hospitals in 2016 and 43 faith-based hospitals in 2017 respectively, was undertaken. Multilevel ordinal and binary logistic regressions examining the effects of 11 factors on five knowledge outcomes in government and faith-based hospital sectors were performed.

Results

Among respective government and faith-based health workers, about a third of health workers had high knowledge of artesunate treatment policies (30.8% vs 32.9%), a third knew all dosing intervals (33.5% vs 33.3%), about half knew preparation solutions (49.9% vs 55.8%), half to two-thirds knew artesunate dose for both weight categories (50.8% vs 66.7%) and over three-quarters knew the preferred route of administration (78.7% vs 82.4%). Eight predictors were significantly associated with at least one of the examined knowledge outcomes. In the government sector, display of artesunate administration posters, paediatric ward allocation and repeated surveys were significantly associated with more than one of the knowledge outcomes. In the faith-based hospitals, availability of artesunate at hospitals and health worker pre-service training were associated with multiple outcomes. Exposure to in-service malaria case-management training and access to malaria guidelines were only associated with higher knowledge about artesunate treatment policy.

Conclusion

Programmatic interventions ensuring display of artesunate administration posters in the wards, targeting of health workers managing adult patients in the medical wards, and repeated knowledge assessments are likely to be beneficial for improving the knowledge of government health workers about artesunate-based severe malaria treatment recommendations. The availability of artesunate and focus on improvements of nurses’ knowledge should be prioritized at the faith-based hospitals.

Using the Ultrasensitive Alere Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Ag HRP-2™ Rapid Diagnostic Test in the Field and Clinic in Northeastern Uganda

The ultrasensitive Alere Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Ag histidine-rich protein 2 rapid diagnostic test (Alere uRDT, Suwon City, South Korea) is a new diagnostic tool which is more expensive than other malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) routinely used in Ugandan clinics. The manufacturer recommends testing samples within 2 days and scoring results after 20 minutes, which may be impractical in high-volume resource-poor clinics. We compared testing by the Alere Ag rapid diagnostic test (uRDT), CareStart RDT, microscopy, and an ultrasensitive I8S rRNA quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) using survey and clinical samples. For the Alere uRDT, we used survey blood samples stored at 4°C for 44 days and for some clinical samples deliberately scored results beyond 20 minutes. The Alere uRDT and qRT-PCR identified asymptomatic parasitemia cases in 56% and 72%, respectively, of survey samples originally scored as negative by the CareStart RDT. Using qRT-PCR as a gold standard, the Alere uRDT was superior to the CareStart RDT in estimating asymptomatic parasite prevalence in a cross-sectional survey (P = 0.007) and in detection of clinically significant malaria; both RDTs were comparable in detecting asymptomatic parasitemia in the clinic (P = 0.599). Scoring Alere uRDT results at 20 minutes produced valid results confirmed by the CareStart RDT, but there was a consistent background; scoring the Alere uRDT beyond 20 minutes produced false-positive results. The Alere uRDT outperformed the CareStart RDT (ACCESSBIO, Somerset, NJ) in a field survey in estimating malaria prevalence and in the clinic for symptomatic malarial illness. It produced reliable results using samples stored at 4°C for 44 days, but test results read beyond 20 minutes were invalid.

Malaria infection, disease and mortality among children and adults on the coast of Kenya

BACKGROUND

Malaria transmission has recently fallen in many parts of Africa, but systematic descriptions of infection and disease across all age groups are rare. Here, an epidemiological investigation of parasite prevalence, the incidence of fevers associated with infection, severe hospitalized disease and mortality among children older than 6 months and adults on the Kenyan coast is presented.

METHODS

A prospective fever surveillance was undertaken at 6 out-patients (OPD) health-facilities between March 2018 and February 2019. Four community-based, cross sectional surveys of fever history and infection prevalence were completed among randomly selected homestead members from the same communities. Paediatric and adult malaria at Kilifi county hospital was obtained for the 12 months period. Rapid Diagnostic Tests (CareStart™ RDT) to detect HRP2-specific to Plasmodium falciparum was used in the community and the OPD, and microscopy in the hospital. Crude and age-specific incidence rates were computed using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Parasite prevalence gradually increased from childhood, reaching 12% by 9 years of age then declining through adolescence into adulthood. The incidence rate of RDT positivity in the OPD followed a similar trend to that of infection prevalence in the community. The incidence of hospitalized malaria from the same community was concentrated among children aged 6 months to 4 years (i.e. 64% and 70% of all hospitalized and severe malaria during the 12 months of surveillance, respectively). Only 3.7% (12/316) of deaths were directly attributable to malaria. Malaria mortality was highest among children aged 6 months-4 years at 0.57 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0.2, 1.2). Severe malaria and death from malaria was negligible above 15 years of age.

CONCLUSION

Under conditions of low transmission intensity, immunity to disease and the fatal consequences of infection appear to continue to be acquired in childhood and faster than anti-parasitic immunity. There was no evidence of an emerging significant burden of severe malaria or malaria mortality among adults. This is contrary to current modelled approaches to disease burden estimation in Africa and has important implications for the targeting of infection prevention strategies based on chemoprevention or vector control.

Time to Say Goodbye to Bronchiolitis, Viral Wheeze, Reactive Airways Disease, Wheeze Bronchitis and All That

The diagnosis and management of infants and children with a significant viral lower respiratory tract illness remains the subject of much debate and little progress. Over the decades various terms for such illnesses have been in and fallen out of fashion or have evolved to mean different things to different clinicians. Terms such as "bronchiolitis," "reactive airways disease," "viral wheeze," and many more are used to describe the same condition and the same term is frequently used to describe illnesses caused by completely different dominant pathologies. This lack of clarity is due, in large part, to a failure to understand the basic underlying inflammatory and associated processes and, in part, due to the lack of a simple test to identify a condition such as asthma. Moreover, there is a lack of insight into the fact that the same pathology can produce different clinical signs at different ages. The consequence is that terminology and fashions in treatment have tended to go around in circles. As was noted almost 60 years ago, amongst pre-school children with a viral LRTI and airways obstruction there are those with a "viral bronchitis" and those with asthma. In the former group, a neutrophil dominated inflammation response is responsible for the airways' obstruction whilst amongst asthmatics much of the obstruction is attributable to bronchoconstriction. The airways obstruction in the former group is predominantly caused by airways secretions and to some extent mucosal oedema (a "snotty lung"). These patients benefit from good supportive care including supplemental oxygen if required (though those with a pre-existing bacterial bronchitis will also benefit from antibiotics). For those with a viral exacerbation of asthma, characterized by bronchoconstriction combined with impaired b-agonist responsiveness, standard management of an exacerbation of asthma (including the use of steroids to re-establish bronchodilator responsiveness) represents optimal treatment. The difficulty is identifying which group a particular patient falls into. A proposed simplified approach to the nomenclature used to categorize virus associated LRTIs is presented based on an understanding of the underlying pathological processes and how these contribute to the physical signs.

Trends in malaria prevalence and health related socioeconomic inequality in rural western Kenya: results from repeated household malaria cross-sectional surveys from 2006 to 2013

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this analysis was to examine trends in malaria parasite prevalence and related socioeconomic inequalities in malaria indicators from 2006 to 2013 during a period of intensification of malaria control interventions in Siaya County, western Kenya.

METHODS

Data were analysed from eight independent annual cross-sectional surveys from a combined sample of 19 315 individuals selected from 7253 households. Study setting was a health and demographic surveillance area of western Kenya. Data collected included demographic factors, household assets, fever and medication use, malaria parasitaemia by microscopy, insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) use and care-seeking behaviour. Households were classified into five socioeconomic status and dichotomised into poorest households (poorest 60%) and less poor households (richest 40%). Adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) were calculated using a multivariate generalised linear model accounting for clustering and cox proportional hazard for pooled data assuming constant follow-up time.

RESULTS

Overall, malaria infection prevalence was 36.5% and was significantly higher among poorest individuals compared with the less poor (39.9% vs 33.5%, aPR=1.17; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.23) but no change in prevalence over time (trend p value <0.256). Care-seeking (61.1% vs 62.5%, aPR=0.99; 95% CI 0.95 to 1.03) and use of any medication were similar among the poorest and less poor. Poorest individuals were less likely to use Artemether-Lumefantrine or quinine for malaria treatment (18.8% vs 22.1%, aPR=0.81, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.91) while use of ITNs was lower among the poorest individuals compared with less poor (54.8% vs 57.9%; aPR=0.95; 95% CI 0.91 to 0.99), but the difference was negligible.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite attainment of equity in ITN use over time, socioeconomic inequalities still existed in the distribution of malaria. This might be due to a lower likelihood of treatment with an effective antimalarial and lower use of ITNs by poorest individuals. Additional strategies are necessary to reduce socioeconomic inequities in prevention and control of malaria in endemic areas in order to achieve universal health coverage and sustainable development goals.

Modelling the relationship between malaria prevalence as a measure of transmission and mortality across age groups

Background

Parasite prevalence has been used widely as a measure of malaria transmission, especially in malaria endemic areas. However, its contribution and relationship to malaria mortality across different age groups has not been well investigated. Previous studies in a health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) platform in western Kenya quantified the contribution of incidence and entomological inoculation rates (EIR) to mortality. The study assessed the relationship between outcomes of malaria parasitaemia surveys and mortality across age groups.

Methods

Parasitological data from annual cross-sectional surveys from the Kisumu HDSS between 2007 and 2015 were used to determine malaria parasite prevalence (PP) and clinical malaria (parasites plus reported fever within 24 h or temperature above 37.5 °C). Household surveys and verbal autopsy (VA) were used to obtain data on all-cause and malaria-specific mortality. Bayesian negative binomial geo-statistical regression models were used to investigate the association of PP/clinical malaria with mortality across different age groups. Estimates based on yearly data were compared with those from aggregated data over 4 to 5-year periods, which is the typical period that mortality data are available from national demographic and health surveys.

Results

Using 5-year aggregated data, associations were established between parasite prevalence and malaria-specific mortality in the whole population (RR_malaria = 1.66; 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals: 1.07–2.54) and children 1–4 years (RR_malaria = 2.29; 1.17–4.29). While clinical malaria was associated with both all-cause and malaria-specific mortality in combined ages (RR_all-cause = 1.32; 1.01–1.74); (RR_malaria = 2.50; 1.27–4.81), children 1–4 years (RR_all-cause = 1.89; 1.00–3.51); (RR_malaria = 3.37; 1.23–8.93) and in older children 5–14 years (RR_all-cause = 3.94; 1.34–11.10); (RR_malaria = 7.56; 1.20–39.54), no association was found among neonates, adults (15–59 years) and the elderly (60+ years). Distance to health facilities, socioeconomic status, elevation and survey year were important factors for all-cause and malaria-specific mortality.

Conclusion

Malaria parasitaemia from cross-sectional surveys was associated with mortality across age groups over 4 to 5 year periods with clinical malaria more strongly associated with mortality than parasite prevalence. This effect was stronger in children 5–14 years compared to other age-groups. Further analyses of data from other HDSS sites or similar platforms would be useful in investigating the relationship between malaria and mortality across different endemicity levels.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-019-2869-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Intermittent Preventive Treatment (IPT): Its Role in Averting Disease-Induced Mortality in Children and in Promoting the Spread of Antimalarial Drug Resistance

We develop an age-structured ODE model to investigate the role of intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) in averting malaria-induced mortality in children, and its related cost in promoting the spread of antimalarial drug resistance. IPT, a malaria control strategy in which a full curative dose of an antimalarial medication is administered to vulnerable asymptomatic individuals at specified intervals, has been shown to reduce malaria transmission and deaths in children and pregnant women. However, it can also promote drug resistance spread. Our mathematical model is used to explore IPT effects on drug resistance and deaths averted in holoendemic malaria regions. The model includes drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains as well as human hosts and mosquitoes. The basic reproduction, and invasion reproduction numbers for both strains are derived. Numerical simulations show the individual and combined effects of IPT and treatment of symptomatic infections on the prevalence of both strains and the number of lives saved. Our results suggest that while IPT can indeed save lives, particularly in high transmission regions, certain combinations of drugs used for IPT and to treat symptomatic infection may result in more deaths when resistant parasite strains are circulating. Moreover, the half-lives of the treatment and IPT drugs used play an important role in the extent to which IPT may influence spread of the resistant strain. A sensitivity analysis indicates the model outcomes are most sensitive to the reduction factor of transmission for the resistant strain, rate of immunity loss, and the natural clearance rate of sensitive infections.

Health disparities across the counties of Kenya and implications for policy makers, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provided comprehensive estimates of health loss globally. Decision makers in Kenya can use GBD subnational data to target health interventions and address county-level variation in the burden of disease.

Methods

We used GBD 2016 estimates of life expectancy at birth, healthy life expectancy, all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, and risk factors to analyse health by age and sex at the national and county levels in Kenya from 1990 to 2016.

Findings

The national all-cause mortality rate decreased from 850·3 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 829·8–871·1) deaths per 100 000 in 1990 to 579·0 (562·1–596·0) deaths per 100 000 in 2016. Under-5 mortality declined from 95·4 (95% UI 90·1–101·3) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 43·4 (36·9–51·2) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2016, and maternal mortality fell from 315·7 (242·9–399·4) deaths per 100 000 in 1990 to 257·6 (195·1–335·3) deaths per 100 000 in 2016, with steeper declines after 2006 and heterogeneously across counties. Life expectancy at birth increased by 5·4 (95% UI 3·7–7·2) years, with higher gains in females than males in all but ten counties. Unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing, unsafe sex, and malnutrition were the leading national risk factors in 2016.

Interpretation

Health outcomes have improved in Kenya since 2006. The burden of communicable diseases decreased but continues to predominate the total disease burden in 2016, whereas the non-communicable disease burden increased. Health gains varied strikingly across counties, indicating targeted approaches for health policy are necessary.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Age-specific Plasmodium parasite profile in pre and post ITN intervention period at a highland site in western Kenya

BACKGROUND

Monitoring and evaluation of entomological, parasitological and clinical data is an important component of malaria control as it is a measure of the success of the interventions. In many studies, clinical data has been used to monitor trends in malaria morbidity and mortality. This study was conducted to demonstrate age dependent prevalence of malaria in the pre- and post-interventions period.

METHODS

A series of cross-sectional malaria parasitological surveys were conducted in Iguhu, western Kenya. Participants were randomly selected school-aged children between 6 and 13 years. The study was conducted between June 2002-December 2003 and January 2012-February 2015. Sexual and asexual parasite prevalence and densities were determined using microscopy. Age-dependence in parasite infections was compared between 2002-2003 and 2012-2015.

RESULTS

Plasmodium falciparum had the highest prevalence of 43.5 and 11.5% in the pre- and post-intervention periods. Plasmodium malariae had a prevalence of 2.3 and 0.2%, while Plasmodium ovale had a prevalence of 0.3 and 0.1% during the pre- and post-intervention period, respectively. There was a 73.7% reduction in prevalence of P. falciparum in the post-intervention compared to the pre-intervention period. Plasmodium falciparum parasite density increased by 71.2% between pre- and post-intervention period from (geometric mean of) 554.4-949.2 parasites/µl. Geometric mean gametocytaemia in Iguhu was higher in the post-intervention period (106.4 parasites/µl), when compared to the pre-intervention period (54.1 parasites/µl). Prevalence and density of P. falciparum showed a lower age-dependency during post-intervention period when compared to pre-intervention period.

CONCLUSION

The study provides evidence for reduction of malaria prevalence following the introduction of LLINs and ACT in western Kenya. Fewer people become infected but the few infected may be more infectious as suggested by higher gametocyte densities. The high parasite densities, which were not dependent on age, observed in the post intervention period imply that a more comprehensive integrated malaria management may be required to sustain the current interventions and hence reduce malaria transmission.

A systematic review and synthesis of the strengths and limitations of measuring malaria mortality through verbal autopsy

Background

Lack of valid and reliable data on malaria deaths continues to be a problem that plagues the global health community. To address this gap, the verbal autopsy (VA) method was developed to ascertain cause of death at the population level. Despite the adoption and wide use of VA, there are many recognized limitations of VA tools and methods, especially for measuring malaria mortality. This study synthesizes the strengths and limitations of existing VA tools and methods for measuring malaria mortality (MM) in low- and middle-income countries through a systematic literature review.

Methods

The authors searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, Popline, WHOLIS, Google Scholar, and INDEPTH Network Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites’ websites from 1 January 1990 to 15 January 2016 for articles and reports on MM measurement through VA. Inclusion criteria: article presented results from a VA study where malaria was a cause of death; article discussed limitations/challenges related to measurement of MM through VA. Two authors independently searched the databases and websites and conducted a synthesis of articles using a standard matrix.

Results

The authors identified 828 publications; 88 were included in the final review. Most publications were VA studies; others were systematic reviews discussing VA tools or methods; editorials or commentaries; and studies using VA data to develop MM estimates. The main limitation were low sensitivity and specificity of VA tools for measuring MM. Other limitations included lack of standardized VA tools and methods, lack of a ‘true’ gold standard to assess accuracy of VA malaria mortality.

Conclusions

Existing VA tools and methods for measuring MM have limitations. Given the need for data to measure progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Technical Strategy for Malaria 2016–2030 goals, the malaria community should define strategies for improving MM estimates, including exploring whether VA tools and methods could be further improved. Longer term strategies should focus on improving countries’ vital registration systems for more robust and timely cause of death data.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-2071-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Monocyte dysregulation and systemic inflammation during pediatric falciparum malaria

BACKGROUND

Inflammation and monocytes are thought to be important to human malaria pathogenesis. However, the relationship of inflammation and various monocyte functions to acute malaria, recovery from acute malaria, and asymptomatic parasitemia in endemic populations is poorly understood.

METHODS

We evaluated plasma cytokine levels, monocyte subsets, monocyte functional responses, and monocyte inflammatory transcriptional profiles of 1- to 10-year-old Kenyan children at the time of presentation with acute uncomplicated malaria and at recovery 6 weeks later; these results were compared with analogous data from asymptomatic children and adults in the same community.

RESULTS

Acute malaria was marked by elevated levels of proinflammatory and regulatory cytokines and expansion of the inflammatory "intermediate" monocyte subset that returned to levels of healthy asymptomatic children 6 weeks later. Monocytes displayed activated phenotypes during acute malaria, with changes in surface expression of markers important to innate and adaptive immunity. Functionally, acute malaria monocytes and monocytes from asymptomatic infected children had impaired phagocytosis of P. falciparum-infected erythrocytes relative to asymptomatic children with no blood-stage infection. Monocytes from both acute malaria and recovery time points displayed strong and equivalent cytokine responsiveness to innate immune agonists that were independent of infection status. Monocyte transcriptional profiles revealed regulated and balanced proinflammatory and antiinflammatory and altered phagocytosis gene expression patterns distinct from malaria-naive monocytes.

CONCLUSION

These observations provide insights into monocyte functions and the innate immune response during uncomplicated malaria and suggest that asymptomatic parasitemia in children is not clinically benign.

FUNDING

Support for this work was provided by NIH/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01AI095192-05), the Burroughs Wellcome Fund/American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, and the Rainbow Babies & Children's Foundation.

Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of mortality in relation to malaria incidence in Western Kenya

INTRODUCTION

The effect of malaria exposure on mortality using health facility incidence data as a measure of transmission has not been well investigated. Health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) routinely capture data on mortality, interventions and other household related indicators, offering a unique platform for estimating and monitoring the incidence-mortality relationship in space and time.

METHODS

Mortality data from the HDSS located in Western Kenya collected from 2007 to 2012 and linked to health facility incidence data were analysed using Bayesian spatio-temporal survival models to investigate the relation between mortality (all-cause/malaria-specific) and malaria incidence across all age groups. The analysis adjusted for insecticide-treated net (ITN) ownership, socio-economic status (SES), distance to health facilities and altitude. The estimates obtained were used to quantify excess mortality due to malaria exposure.

RESULTS

Our models identified a strong positive relationship between slide positivity rate (SPR) and all-cause mortality in young children 1-4 years (HR = 4.29; 95% CI: 2.78-13.29) and all ages combined (HR = 1.55; 1.04-2.80). SPR had a strong positive association with malaria-specific mortality in young children (HR = 9.48; 5.11-37.94), however, in older children (5-14 years), it was associated with a reduction in malaria specific mortality (HR = 0.02; 0.003-0.33).

CONCLUSION

SPR as a measure of transmission captures well the association between malaria transmission intensity and all-cause/malaria mortality. This offers a quick and efficient way to monitor malaria burden. Excess mortality estimates indicate that small changes in malaria incidence substantially reduce overall and malaria specific mortality.

Community-based intermittent mass testing and treatment for malaria in an area of high transmission intensity, western Kenya: study design and methodology for a cluster randomized controlled trial

Most human Plasmodium infections in western Kenya are asymptomatic and are believed to contribute importantly to malaria transmission. Elimination of asymptomatic infections requires active treatment approaches, such as mass testing and treatment (MTaT) or mass drug administration (MDA), as infected persons do not seek care for their infection. Evaluations of community-based approaches that are designed to reduce malaria transmission require careful attention to study design to ensure that important effects can be measured accurately. This manuscript describes the study design and methodology of a cluster-randomized controlled trial to evaluate a MTaT approach for malaria transmission reduction in an area of high malaria transmission. Ten health facilities in western Kenya were purposively selected for inclusion. The communities within 3 km of each health facility were divided into three clusters of approximately equal population size. Two clusters around each health facility were randomly assigned to the control arm, and one to the intervention arm. Three times per year for 2 years, after the long and short rains, and again before the long rains, teams of community health volunteers visited every household within the intervention arm, tested all consenting individuals with malaria rapid diagnostic tests, and treated all positive individuals with an effective anti-malarial. The effect of mass testing and treatment on malaria transmission was measured through population-based longitudinal cohorts, outpatient visits for clinical malaria, periodic population-based cross-sectional surveys, and entomological indices.

Observations from Mortality Trends at The Children's Hospital, Accra, 2003-2013

Objective

Facility-based studies provide an unparalleled opportunity to assess interventions deployed in hospitals to reduce child mortality which is not easily captured in the national data. We examined mortality trends at the Princess Marie Louise Children’s Hospital (PML) and related it to interventions deployed in the hospital and community to reduce child mortality and achieve the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4).

Methods

The study was a cross-sectional review of data on consecutive patients who died at the hospital over a period of 11 years, between 2003 and 2013. The total admissions for each year, the major hospital-based and population-based interventions, which took place within the period, were also obtained.

Results

Out of a total of 37,012 admissions, 1,314 (3.6%) deaths occurred and admissions tripled during the period. The average annual change in mortality was -7.12% overall, -7.38% in under-fives, and -1.47% in children ≥5 years. The majority of the deaths, 1,187 (90.3%), occurred in under-fives. The observed decrease in under-five (and overall) mortality rate occurred in a specific and peculiar pattern. Most of the decrease occurred during the period between 2003 and 2006. After that there was a noticeable increase from 2006 to 2008. Then, the rate slowly decreased until the end of the study period in 2013. There was a concomitant decline in malaria mortality following a pattern similar to the decline observed in other parts of the continent during this period. Several interventions might have contributed to the reduction in mortality including the change in malaria treatment policy, improved treatment of malnutrition and increasing paediatric input.

Conclusion

Under-fives mortality at PML has declined considerably; however, the reduction in mortality in older children has been minimal and thus requires special attention. Data collection for mortality reviews should be planned and commissioned regularly in hospitals to assess the effects of interventions and understand the context in which they occur. This will provide benchmarks and an impetus for improving care, identify shortfalls and ensure that the gains in child survival are maintained.

Paediatric respiratory infections

Pulmonary infections remain a major cause of infant and child mortality worldwide and are responsible for a substantial burden of morbidity. During the 2015 European Respiratory Society International Congress in Amsterdam, some of the main findings from peer-reviewed articles addressing this topic that were published in the preceding 12 months were reviewed in a Paediatric Clinical Year in Review session. The following article highlights some of the insights provided by these articles into the complex interactions of the human host with the extensive and dynamic populations of microorganisms that call an individual "home".

Assessment of submicroscopic infections and gametocyte carriage of Plasmodium falciparum during peak malaria transmission season in a community-based cross-sectional survey in western Kenya, 2012

Background

Although malaria control intervention has greatly decreased malaria morbidity and mortality in many African countries, further decline in parasite prevalence has stagnated in western Kenya. In order to assess if malaria transmission reservoir is associated with this stagnation, submicroscopic infection and gametocyte carriage was estimated. Risk factors and associations between malaria control interventions and gametocyte carriage were further investigated in this study.

Methods

A total of 996 dried blood spot samples were used from two strata, all smear-positives (516 samples) and randomly selected smear-negatives (480 samples), from a community cross-sectional survey conducted at peak transmission season in 2012 in Siaya County, western Kenya. Plasmodium falciparum parasite presence and density were determined by stained blood smear and by 18S mRNA transcripts using nucleic acid sequence-based amplification assay (NASBA), gametocyte presence and density were determined by blood smear and by Pfs25 mRNA-NASBA, and gametocyte diversity by Pfg377 mRNA RT-PCR and RT-qPCR.

Results

Of the randomly selected smear-negative samples, 69.6 % (334/480) were positive by 18S-NASBA while 18S-NASBA detected 99.6 % (514/516) smear positive samples. Overall, 80.2 % of the weighted population was parasite positive by 18S-NASBA vs 30.6 % by smear diagnosis and 44.0 % of the weighted population was gametocyte positive by Pfs25-NASBA vs 2.6 % by smear diagnosis. Children 5–15 years old were more likely to be parasitaemic and gametocytaemic by NASBA than individuals >15 years old or children <5 years old while gametocyte density decreased with age. Anaemia and self-reported fever within the past 24 h were associated with increased odds of gametocytaemia. Fever was also positively associated with parasite density, but not with gametocyte density. Anti-malarial use within the past 2 weeks decreased the odds of gametocytaemia, but not the odds of parasitaemia. In contrast, recent anti-malarial use was associated with lowered parasite density, but not the gametocyte density. Use of ITNs was associated with lower odds for parasitaemia in part of the study area with a longer history of ITN interventions. In the same part of study area, the odds of having multiple gametocyte alleles were also lower in individuals using ITNs than in those not using ITNs and parasite density was positively associated with gametocyte diversity.

Conclusion

A large proportion of submicroscopic parasites and gametocytes in western Kenya might contribute to the stagnation in malaria prevalence, suggesting that additional interventions targeting the infectious reservoir are needed. As school aged children and persons with anaemia and fever were major sources for gametocyte reservoir, these groups should be targeted for intervention and prevention to reduce malaria transmission. Anti-malarial use was associated with lower parasite density and odds of gametocytaemia, but not the gametocyte density, indicating a limitation of anti-malarial impact on the transmission reservoir. ITN use had a protective role against parasitaemia and gametocyte diversity in western Kenya.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1482-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Burden of Invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella Disease in a Rural and Urban Site in Kenya, 2009-2014

BACKGROUND

Invasive infections with nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) lead to bacteremia in children and adults and are an important cause of illness in Africa; however, few data on the burden of NTS bacteremia are available. We sought to determine the burden of invasive NTS disease in a rural and urban setting in Kenya.

METHODS

We conducted the study in a population-based surveillance platform in a rural setting in western Kenya (Lwak), and an informal urban settlement in Nairobi (Kibera) from 2009 to 2014. We obtained blood culture specimens from participants presenting with acute lower respiratory tract illness or acute febrile illness to a designated outpatient facility in each site, or any hospital admission for a potentially infectious cause (rural site only). Incidence was calculated using a defined catchment population and adjusting for specimen collection and healthcare-seeking practices.

RESULTS

A total of 12 683 and 9524 blood cultures were analyzed from Lwak and Kibera, respectively. Of these, 428 (3.4%) and 533 (5.6%) grew a pathogen; among those, 208 (48.6%) and 70 (13.1%) were positive for NTS in Lwak and Kibera, respectively. Overall, the adjusted incidence of invasive NTS disease was higher in Lwak (839.4 per 100,000 person-years of observation [PYO]) than in Kibera (202.5 per 100,000 PYO). The highest adjusted incidences were observed in children <5 years of age (Lwak 3914.3 per 100,000 PYO and Kibera 997.9 per 100,000 PYO). The highest adjusted annual incidence was 1927.3 per 100,000 PYO (in 2010) in Lwak and 220.5 per 100,000 PYO (in 2011) in Kibera; the lowest incidences were 303.3 and 62.5 per 100,000 PYO, respectively (in 2012). In both sites, invasive NTS disease incidence generally declined over the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed an extremely high burden of invasive NTS disease in a rural area of Kenya and a lesser, but still substantial, burden in an urban slum. Although the incidences in both sites declined during the study period, invasive NTS infections remain an important cause of morbidity in these settings, particularly among children <5 years old.

Remotely Sensed Environmental Conditions and Malaria Mortality in Three Malaria Endemic Regions in Western Kenya

Background

Malaria is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in malaria endemic countries. The malaria mosquito vectors depend on environmental conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, for reproduction and survival. To investigate the potential for weather driven early warning systems to prevent disease occurrence, the disease relationship to weather conditions need to be carefully investigated. Where meteorological observations are scarce, satellite derived products provide new opportunities to study the disease patterns depending on remotely sensed variables. In this study, we explored the lagged association of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NVDI), day Land Surface Temperature (LST) and precipitation on malaria mortality in three areas in Western Kenya.

Methodology and Findings

The lagged effect of each environmental variable on weekly malaria mortality was modeled using a Distributed Lag Non Linear Modeling approach. For each variable we constructed a natural spline basis with 3 degrees of freedom for both the lag dimension and the variable. Lag periods up to 12 weeks were considered. The effect of day LST varied between the areas with longer lags. In all the three areas, malaria mortality was associated with precipitation. The risk increased with increasing weekly total precipitation above 20 mm and peaking at 80 mm. The NDVI threshold for increased mortality risk was between 0.3 and 0.4 at shorter lags.

Conclusion

This study identified lag patterns and association of remote- sensing environmental factors and malaria mortality in three malaria endemic regions in Western Kenya. Our results show that rainfall has the most consistent predictive pattern to malaria transmission in the endemic study area. Results highlight a potential for development of locally based early warning forecasts that could potentially reduce the disease burden by enabling timely control actions.

The Impact of Hotspot-Targeted Interventions on Malaria Transmission in Rachuonyo South District in the Western Kenyan Highlands: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Malaria transmission is highly heterogeneous, generating malaria hotspots that can fuel malaria transmission across a wider area. Targeting hotspots may represent an efficacious strategy for reducing malaria transmission. We determined the impact of interventions targeted to serologically defined malaria hotspots on malaria transmission both inside hotspots and in surrounding communities.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Twenty-seven serologically defined malaria hotspots were detected in a survey conducted from 24 June to 31 July 2011 that included 17,503 individuals from 3,213 compounds in a 100-km2 area in Rachuonyo South District, Kenya. In a cluster-randomized trial from 22 March to 15 April 2012, we randomly allocated five clusters to hotspot-targeted interventions with larviciding, distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, and focal mass drug administration (2,082 individuals in 432 compounds); five control clusters received malaria control following Kenyan national policy (2,468 individuals in 512 compounds). Our primary outcome measure was parasite prevalence in evaluation zones up to 500 m outside hotspots, determined by nested PCR (nPCR) at baseline and 8 wk (16 June-6 July 2012) and 16 wk (21 August-10 September 2012) post-intervention by technicians blinded to the intervention arm. Secondary outcome measures were parasite prevalence inside hotpots, parasite prevalence in the evaluation zone as a function of distance from the hotspot boundary, Anopheles mosquito density, mosquito breeding site productivity, malaria incidence by passive case detection, and the safety and acceptability of the interventions. Intervention coverage exceeded 87% for all interventions. Hotspot-targeted interventions did not result in a change in nPCR parasite prevalence outside hotspot boundaries (p ≥ 0.187). We observed an average reduction in nPCR parasite prevalence of 10.2% (95% CI -1.3 to 21.7%) inside hotspots 8 wk post-intervention that was statistically significant after adjustment for covariates (p = 0.024), but not 16 wk post-intervention (p = 0.265). We observed no statistically significant trend in the effect of the intervention on nPCR parasite prevalence in the evaluation zone in relation to distance from the hotspot boundary 8 wk (p = 0.27) or 16 wk post-intervention (p = 0.75). Thirty-six patients with clinical malaria confirmed by rapid diagnostic test could be located to intervention or control clusters, with no apparent difference between the study arms. In intervention clusters we caught an average of 1.14 female anophelines inside hotspots and 0.47 in evaluation zones; in control clusters we caught an average of 0.90 female anophelines inside hotspots and 0.50 in evaluation zones, with no apparent difference between study arms. Our trial was not powered to detect subtle effects of hotspot-targeted interventions nor designed to detect effects of interventions over multiple transmission seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite high coverage, the impact of interventions targeting malaria vectors and human infections on nPCR parasite prevalence was modest, transient, and restricted to the targeted hotspot areas. Our findings suggest that transmission may not primarily occur from hotspots to the surrounding areas and that areas with highly heterogeneous but widespread malaria transmission may currently benefit most from an untargeted community-wide approach. Hotspot-targeted approaches may have more validity in settings where human settlement is more nuclear.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01575613.

The association of weather variability and under five malaria mortality in KEMRI/CDC HDSS in Western Kenya 2003 to 2008: a time series analysis

Malaria is among the leading causes of mortality in the younger under-five group of children zero to four years of age. This study aims at describing the relationship between rainfall and temperature on under-five malaria or anaemia mortality in Kenya Medical Research Institute and United States Centers for Disease Control (KEMRI/CDC) Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). This study was conducted through the ongoing KEMRI and CDC collaboration. A general additive model with a Poisson link function was fit to model the weekly association of lagged cumulative rainfall and average temperature on malaria/anemia mortality in KEMRI/CDC HDSS for the period 2003 to 2008. A trend function was included in the model to control for time trends and seasonality not explained by weather fluctuations. 95% confidence intervals was presented with estimates. Malaria or anemia mortality was found to be associated with changes in temperature and rainfall in the KEMRI HDSS, with a delay up to 16 weeks. The empirical estimates of associations describe established biological relationships well. This information, and particularly, the strength of the relationships over longer lead times can highlight the possibility of developing a predictive forecast with lead times up to 16 weeks in order to enhance preparedness to high transmission episodes.

Malaria mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites

Background

Malaria continues to be a major cause of infectious disease mortality in tropical regions. However, deaths from malaria are most often not individually documented, and as a result overall understanding of malaria epidemiology is inadequate. INDEPTH Network members maintain population surveillance in Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites across Africa and Asia, in which individual deaths are followed up with verbal autopsies.

Objective

To present patterns of malaria mortality determined by verbal autopsy from INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia, comparing these findings with other relevant information on malaria in the same regions.

Design

From a database covering 111,910 deaths over 12,204,043 person-years in 22 sites, in which verbal autopsy data were handled according to the WHO 2012 standard and processed using the InterVA-4 model, over 6,000 deaths were attributed to malaria. The overall period covered was 1992–2012, but two-thirds of the observations related to 2006–2012. These deaths were analysed by site, time period, age group and sex to investigate epidemiological differences in malaria mortality.

Results

Rates of malaria mortality varied by 1:10,000 across the sites, with generally low rates in Asia (one site recording no malaria deaths over 0.5 million person-years) and some of the highest rates in West Africa (Nouna, Burkina Faso: 2.47 per 1,000 person-years). Childhood malaria mortality rates were strongly correlated with Malaria Atlas Project estimates of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rates for the same locations. Adult malaria mortality rates, while lower than corresponding childhood rates, were strongly correlated with childhood rates at the site level.

Conclusions

The wide variations observed in malaria mortality, which were nevertheless consistent with various other estimates, suggest that population-based registration of deaths using verbal autopsy is a useful approach to understanding the details of malaria epidemiology.