Identification of burden hotspots and risk factors for cholera in India: An observational study

Identifying clustering of cholera cases using geospatial analysis in Kolkata and surrounding districts: data from patients at tertiary care referral hospitals

Background

Cholera cases have increased globally across the Eastern Mediterranean, Africa, Southeast Asia, and parts of Europe since early 2024. This study aims to identify cholera hotspots and understand the spatial distribution of cholera in Kolkata and surrounding regions, a key cholera reservoir. Additionally, we examine sociodemographic factors and aspects related to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH).

Methods

Cholera clusters were detected using kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation through Global Moran's-I statistics, with local cluster patterns examined using Local Moran's-I statistics. Cholera cases from August 2021 to December 2023, treated at two tertiary care facilities in Kolkata: Infectious Diseases and Beleghata General Hospital and Dr. B C Roy Post Graduate Institute of Paediatric Sciences Hospital were included. Additionally, through a case-control study, 196 culture-confirmed cholera cases and 764 age/sex-matched neighborhood controls were enrolled, to investigate cholera risk factors.

Findings

Spatial analysis revealed a concentration of 196 cholera cases in Kolkata and its surrounding regions of Howrah, Hooghly, and North and South 24 Parganas. Hotspot analysis showed significant clustering in several Kolkata wards (31, 33, 56, 46, 57, 58, 59, 61, 66, 71, and 107), particularly in the northern, central, and east Kolkata wetlands areas (Global Moran's I statistic = 0.14, p < 0.001). These clusters had proximity between cases, with a median distance of 187.7 m, and 25.5% of cases as close as 73.9 m apart, suggesting localized transmission. Hotspots were identified with an average distance of 1600 m between them. Local Moran's I analysis found dense "high-high" clusters in these areas (p < 0.01), with a mean Moran's I index of 0.3, (range 0.1-4.6). The case-control study revealed that males were more likely to contract cholera, with an adjusted odds ratio of 2.4 (p < 0.01). There was no significant association found between cholera infection and sociodemographic factors or various WASH practices.

Interpretation

The findings emphasize the importance of targeted interventions, especially in identified hotspots, to mitigate cholera transmission. Addressing Socio-economic, and environmental factors especially improvement in WASH practices may further enhance prevention effects.

Funding

The author KK, received funding from the program of the Japan Initiative for Global Research Network on Infectious Diseases, (grant id: JP23wm0125004), from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology in Japan, and Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development.

Wastewater-based surveillance of Vibrio cholerae: Molecular insights on biofilm regulatory diguanylate cyclases, virulence factors and antibiotic resistance patterns

Vibrio cholerae is an inherent inhabitant of aquatic ecosystems. The Indian state of West Bengal, especially the Gangetic delta region is the highest cholera affected region and is considered as the hub of Asiatic cholera. V. cholerae were isolated from publicly accessible wastewater of Midnapore, West Bengal, India. Serotyping determined all isolates to be of non-O1/non-O139 serogroups. Moderate biofilm-forming abilities were noticed in most of the isolates (74.7 %) while, high biofilm formation was recorded for only 6.3 % isolates and 19 % of isolates exhibited low/non-biofilm-forming abilities. PCR-based screening of crucial diguanylate cyclases (DGCs) involved in cyclic-di-GMP-mediated biofilm signaling was performed. cdgH and cdgM were the most abundant DGCs among 93.7 % and 91.5 % of isolates, respectively. Other important DGCs, i.e., cdgK, cdgA, cdgL, and vpvC were present in 84 %, 75.5 %, 72 % and 68 % of isolates, respectively. Besides, the non-O1/non-O139 isolates were screened for the occurrence of virulence factor encoding genes. Moreover, among these non-O1/non-O139 isolates, two strains (3.17 %) harbored both ctxA and ctxB genes, which encode the cholera toxin associated with epidemic cholera. ompU was the most prevalent virulence factor, present in 24.8 % of isolates. Other virulence factors like, zot and st were found in 4.7 % and 9.5 % of isolates. Genes encoding tcp and ace were found to be PCR-negative for the isolates. Additionally, crucial virulence factor regulators, toxT, toxR and hapR were found to be PCR-positive in all the isolates. Antibiotic resistance patterns displayed further vulnerabilities with decreased sensitivity towards commonly used antibiotics with multiple antibiotic resistance index ranging between 0.37 and 0.62. The presence of cholera toxin-encoding multi-drug resistant (MDR) V. cholerae strains in environmental settings is alarming. High occurrence of DGCs are considered to encourage further investigations to use them as alternative therapeutic targets against MDR cholera pathogen due to their unique presence in bacterial systems.

Outbreak of cholera due to contaminated pond water utilisation in a rural area of West Bengal, India, 2021

BACKGROUND

On March 31, 2021, an outbreak of diarrhoeal disease was reported in Dangapara village of Purba Bardhaman district, West Bengal, India. The outbreak was investigated to estimate the magnitude, identify aetiological agents and source of infection, and guide prevention control measures.

METHODS

We did an active search for case patients at Dangapara village. We excluded children under five years of age from the epidemiological analysis. We described the outbreak by time, place, and person. We conducted a case control study with 133 controls and 65 cases. Water samples from different sources and rectal swabs from case patients were collected and sent for laboratory investigations.

RESULTS

We identified 95 case patients among 330 residents of Dangapara village (attack rate 29 %). Three stool samples were positive for Vibrio cholerae, and two pond water samples were contaminated with coliform organisms. Washing utensils [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 69.8, (95% confidence interval (CI) 6.5-749.5)] and taking a bath in pond water [AOR: 3.4, (95% CI 1.2-9)] were associated with increased risk of illness. About 97% of cases were attributed to washing utensils in pond water. Washing hands before taking food was associated with a lower risk of developing disease with AOR: 0.1 (95% CI 0.03-0.33).

CONCLUSION

A cholera outbreak occurred among residents of Dangapara village due to theuse of contaminated pond water for washing utensils and bathing. Prompt management of cases and immediate discontinuation of pond water use stopped the outbreak.

Acute gastroenteritis caused by Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa serotype in gastric cancer patient in Eastern India: Case report and review of literature

ABSTRACT

Acute gastroenteritis is the most common clinical manifestation of Vibrio cholerae infection. Cases of non-O1 V. cholerae infections in cancer patients have been previously reported in the literature. To our best knowledge, this is a unique case of V. cholerae classical biotype, serovar Ogawa infection in a young female patient with gastric malignancy.

Mechanisms of cholera transmission via environment in India and Bangladesh: state of the science review

OBJECTIVES

Cholera has a long history in India and Bangladesh, the region where six out of the past seven global pandemics have been seeded. The changing climate and growing population have led to global cholera cases remaining high despite a consistent improvement in the access to clean water and sanitation. We aim to provide a holistic overview of variables influencing environmental cholera transmission within the context of India and Bangladesh, with a focus on the mechanisms by which they act.

CONTENT

We identified 56 relevant texts (Bangladesh n = 40, India n = 7, Other n = 5). The results of the review found that cholera transmission is associated with several socio-economic and environmental factors, each associated variable is suggested to have at least one mediating mechanism. Increases in ambient temperature and coastal sea surface temperature support cholera transmission via increases in plankton and a preference of Vibrio cholerae for warmer waters. Increased rainfall can potentially support or reduce transmission via several mechanisms.

SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK

Common issues in the literature are co-variance of seasonal factors, limited access to high quality cholera data, high research bias towards research in Dhaka and Matlab (Bangladesh). A specific and detailed understanding of the relationship between SST and cholera incidence remains unclear.

Seasonality of cholera in Kolkata and the influence of climate

BACKGROUND

Cholera in Kolkata remains endemic and the Indian city is burdened with a high number of annual cases. Climate change is widely considered to exacerbate cholera, however the precise relationship between climate and cholera is highly heterogeneous in space and considerable variation can be observed even within the Indian subcontinent. To date, relatively few studies have been conducted regarding the influence of climate on cholera in Kolkata.

METHODS

We considered 21 years of confirmed cholera cases from the Infectious Disease Hospital in Kolkata during the period of 1999-2019. We used Generalised Additive Modelling (GAM) to extract the non-linear relationship between cholera and different climatic factors; temperature, rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST). Peak associated lag times were identified using cross-correlation lag analysis.

RESULTS

Our findings revealed a bi-annual pattern of cholera cases with two peaks coinciding with the increase in temperature in summer and the onset of monsoon rains. Variables selected as explanatory variables in the GAM model were temperature and rainfall. Temperature was the only significant factor associated with summer cholera (mean temperature of 30.3 °C associated with RR of 3.8) while rainfall was found to be the main driver of monsoon cholera (550 mm total monthly rainfall associated with RR of 3.38). Lag time analysis revealed that the association between temperature and cholera cases in the summer had a longer peak lag time compared to that between rainfall and cholera during the monsoon. We propose several mechanisms by which these relationships are mediated.

CONCLUSIONS

Kolkata exhibits a dual-peak phenomenon with independent mediating factors. We suggest that the summer peak is due to increased bacterial concentration in urban water bodies, while the monsoon peak is driven by contaminated flood waters. Our results underscore the potential utility of preventative strategies tailored to these seasonal and climatic patterns, including efforts to reduce direct contact with urban water bodies in summer and to protect residents from flood waters during monsoon.

Vibrio Phage VMJ710 Can Prevent and Treat Disease Caused by Pathogenic MDR V. cholerae O1 in an Infant Mouse Model

Cholera, a disease of antiquity, is still festering in developing countries that lack safe drinking water and sewage disposal. Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, has developed multi-drug resistance to many antimicrobial agents. In aquatic habitats, phages are known to influence the occurrence and dispersion of pathogenic V. cholerae. We isolated Vibrio phage VMJ710 from a community sewage water sample of Manimajra, Chandigarh, in 2015 during an outbreak of cholera. It lysed 46% of multidrug-resistant V. cholerae O1 strains. It had significantly reduced the bacterial density within the first 4-6 h of treatment at the three multiplicity of infection (MOI 0.01, 0.1, and 1.0) values used. No bacterial resistance was observed against phage VMJ710 for 20 h in the time-kill assay. It is nearest to an ICP1 phage, i.e., Vibrio phage ICP1_2012 (MH310936.1), belonging to the class Caudoviricetes. ICP1 phages have been the dominant bacteriophages found in cholera patients' stools since 2001. Comparative genome analysis of phage VMJ710 and related phages indicated a high level of genetic conservation. The phage was stable over a wide range of temperatures and pH, which will be an advantage for applications in different environmental settings. The phage VMJ710 showed a reduction in biofilm mass growth, bacterial dispersal, and a clear disruption of bacterial biofilm structure. We further tested the phage VMJ710 for its potential therapeutic and prophylactic properties using infant BALB/c mice. Bacterial counts were reduced significantly when phages were administered before and after the challenge of orogastric inoculation with V. cholerae serotype O1. A comprehensive whole genome study revealed no indication of lysogenic genes, genes associated with possible virulence factors, or antibiotic resistance. Based on all these properties, phage VMJ710 can be a suitable candidate for oral phage administration and could be a viable method of combatting cholera infection caused by MDR V. cholerae pathogenic strains.

Advances in cholera research: from molecular biology to public health initiatives

The aquatic bacterium Vibrio cholerae is the etiological agent of the diarrheal disease cholera, which has plagued the world for centuries. This pathogen has been the subject of studies in a vast array of fields, from molecular biology to animal models for virulence activity to epidemiological disease transmission modeling. V. cholerae genetics and the activity of virulence genes determine the pathogenic potential of different strains, as well as provide a model for genomic evolution in the natural environment. While animal models for V. cholerae infection have been used for decades, recent advances in this area provide a well-rounded picture of nearly all aspects of V. cholerae interaction with both mammalian and non-mammalian hosts, encompassing colonization dynamics, pathogenesis, immunological responses, and transmission to naïve populations. Microbiome studies have become increasingly common as access and affordability of sequencing has improved, and these studies have revealed key factors in V. cholerae communication and competition with members of the gut microbiota. Despite a wealth of knowledge surrounding V. cholerae, the pathogen remains endemic in numerous countries and causes sporadic outbreaks elsewhere. Public health initiatives aim to prevent cholera outbreaks and provide prompt, effective relief in cases where prevention is not feasible. In this review, we describe recent advancements in cholera research in these areas to provide a more complete illustration of V. cholerae evolution as a microbe and significant global health threat, as well as how researchers are working to improve understanding and minimize impact of this pathogen on vulnerable populations.

An epidemiological investigation of a cholera outbreak in peri-urban slum settlements of Gujarat, India

Background

Cholera is an acute diarrhoeal disease caused by consuming contaminated food and water. The burden may remain underreported due to several issues like the low capacity of epidemiological surveillance systems, laboratory testing facilities, and socioeconomic disparities in urban slums. The disease has very short incubation period resulted in quick clustering of cases.

Aim

A thorough outbreak investigation was carried out with the objective of strengthening the surveillance activity, finding out the sources of infection, and recommending necessary actions to control the outbreak immediately.

Methods

An unusual increase in cases of diarrhoea was reported in slum area of Kalol town during the first week of July 2021. The stool samples were taken and investigated for confirmation and declaration of the outbreak by the Rapid Response Team. Time, place, and person distribution were carried out to generate a hypothesis and provide an immediate public health response to contain the outbreak. This study was conducted during the emergency public health response, no ethical approval was sought before the survey.

Results

The cholera outbreak was confirmed when three out of five stool samples were positive for the bacterium V. cholerae O1 biotype El Tor serotype Ogawa. The overall attack rate and case fatality rate were 3.6% and 1.1%, respectively. The leakages caused the mixing of drainage water with the drinking water supply, which could be the possible cause of outbreak.

Conclusion

The early identification and management of the cases, source reduction, health education on water chlorination, and hand hygiene were initiated based on our recommendations, which controlled the present outbreak.

Cholera Outbreaks in India, 2011–2020: A Systematic Review

Fecal contamination of water sources and open defecation have been linked to cholera outbreaks in India. However, a systematic review on the drivers responsible for these outbreaks has yet to be published. Here, we systematically review the published literature on cholera outbreaks in India between 2011 and 2020. We searched studies in English in three databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science) and the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program that tracks cholera outbreaks throughout India. Two authors independently extracted data and assessed the quality of the included studies. Quantitative data on the modes of transmission reviewed in this study were assessed for any change over time between 2011–2015 and 2016–2020. Our search retrieved 10823 records initially, out of which 81 full-text studies were assessed for eligibility. Among these 81 studies, 20 were eligible for inclusion in this review. There were 565 reported outbreaks between 2011 and 2020 that led to 45,759 cases and 263 deaths. Outbreaks occurred throughout the year; however, they exploded with monsoons (June through September). In Tamil Nadu, a typical peak of cholera outbreaks was observed from December to January. Seventy-two percent (33,089/45,759) of outbreak-related cases were reported in five states, namely Maharashtra, West Bengal, Punjab, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh. Analysis of these outbreaks highlighted the main drivers of cholera including contaminated drinking water and food, inadequate sanitation and hygiene (including open defecation), and direct contact between households. The comparison between 2011–2015 and 2016–2020 showed a decreasing trend in the outbreaks that arose due to damaged water pipelines. Many Indians still struggle with open defecation, sanitation, and clean water access. These issues should be addressed critically. In addition, it is essential to interrupt cholera short-cycle transmission (mediated by households, stored drinking water and foodstuffs) during an outbreak. As cholera is associated with deprivation, socio-economic development is the only long-term solution.

Evidence-Based Health Behavior Interventions for Cholera: Lessons from an Outbreak Investigation in India

In rural India, since 2014, the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan (Clean India Mission) has ensured construction of more than 100 million toilets and is now focusing on reinforcement of sanitation behaviors. We report a cholera outbreak in a remote village in western India where open defecation was implicated in causation. A water pipeline was damaged in the vicinity of a stream flowing from a site of open defecation. Despite the availability of a toilet facility in the majority of households (75%), open defecation was widely practiced (62.8%). Many reported not washing hands with soap and water before eating (78.5%) and after defecation (61.1%). The study emphasizes the need for focused health behavior studies and evidence-based interventions to reduce the occurrence of cholera outbreaks. This could be the last lap in the path toward achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6, which aims to "ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all."

Phenotypic and genotypic characterization of antimicrobial resistance in clinical isolates of Vibrio cholerae over a decade (2002-2016)

PURPOSE

Emergence and spread of resistance among Vibrio cholerae have become a global public health problem. In India, no consolidated data is available on antimicrobial susceptibility patterns and antibiotic resistance genes.

METHODS

A total of 110 representative isolates obtained over a period of 14 years were included. Antimicrobial susceptibility was tested by disc diffusion and micro broth dilution. Presence of 13 antimicrobial resistance genes was ascertained by using PCR.

RESULTS

Antimicrobial resistance fluctuated for most of the antibiotics. Resistance to cotrimoxazole in our study was 92.72% and the SXT element was present in all isolates. Resistance to nalidixic acid, tetracycline, and cefotaxime was found to be 98.18%, 7.27%, and 10.9% respectively. Resistance to ampicillin saw a fluctuating trend with a recent fall. Resistance to ciprofloxacin and azithromycin was 12.72% and 29% by MIC. bla_TEM was the most common ESBL gene (94.5%). Other were bla_CMY (26.36%) and bla_NDM (2.7%). We report bla_CTX-M-15 and bla_OXA-48 and ermB for the first time in the world. Newer antimicrobials like prulifloxacin and rifaximin were tested for the first time from India.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study has shown very high levels of resistance to older antibiotics and the emergence of resistance to some of the newer classes of antibiotics. There is an urgent need for increased surveillance studies, rational use of the antimicrobials and preventive measures to control the disease.

Spread and Endemicity of Cholera in India: Factors Beyond the Numbers

Cholera outbreaks currently account for 1.3 to 4.0 million cases and cause between 21 000 and 143 000 deaths worldwide. Cholera is preventable by proper sanitization and immunization; however, in many developing nations such as India, cholera disease is endemic.

The surveillance system in India does not adequately capture the actual number of cases. As a result, it is important to utilize limited public health resources correctly in India and other developing counties more effectively to reach vulnerable communities. In this study, we analyze how studies make sense of cholera transmission and spread in India from 1996 to 2015. Furthermore, we analyze how a more sensitive surveillance system can contribute to cholera eradication by giving rise to outbreak preparedness.

Characterization of V. cholerae O1 biotype El Tor serotype Ogawa possessing the ctxB gene of the classical biotype isolated from well water associated with the cholera outbreak in Kerala, South India

We investigated 22 water samples (17 well water and five pipe water - both chlorinated) and six soil samples from the surroundings of wells of the households of suspected patients from Palakkad district, Kerala (India), from where a cholera outbreak was reported during June-July 2016. A total of 25 Vibrio cholerae isolates were collected from three well water samples during a recent cholera outbreak. Biochemical and serological studies revealed that all of the isolates belonged to serogroup O1, biotype El Tor, serotype Ogawa. PCR assays confirmed the occurrence of ctxB, ctxA, hlyA, tcpA El Tor,VPI, ace, zot, ompW, rfbO1 and toxR genes in all isolates. The presence of the ctxB gene of the classical biotype in all of the El Tor isolates suggests that it is a new variant of El Tor biotype. Antibiogram profile of all V. cholerae O1 isolates revealed resistance towards five classes of antibiotics island and indicates that they were multidrug resistant. ERIC-PCR and PFGE finger prints showed the clonal relationship among the V. cholerae O1 isolates. The results of this study revealed the emergence of a new variant of El Tor biotype in the water samples from Palakkad district, from where a cholera outbreak was reported.

Cholera outbreak investigation, Bhadola, Delhi, India, April-May 2018

BACKGROUND

In the Gangetic plains of India, including Delhi, cholera is endemic. On 10 May 2018, staff at the north Delhi district surveillance unit identified a laboratory-confirmed cholera outbreak when five people tested positive for Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa serotype in Bhadola. We investigated to identify risk factors and recommend prevention measures.

METHODS

We defined a case as ≥3 loose stools within 24 h in a Bhadola resident during 1 April-29 May 2018. We searched for cases house-to-house. In a 1 : 1 unmatched case control study, a control was defined as an absence of loose stools in a Bhadola resident during 1 April-29 May 2018. We selected cases and controls randomly. We tested stool samples for Vibrio cholerae by culture. We tested drinking water for fecal contamination. Using multivariable logistic regression we calculated adjusted ORs (aORs) with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

We identified 129 cases; the median age was 14.5 y, 52% were females, 27% were hospitalized and there were no deaths. Symptoms were abdominal pain (54%), vomiting (44%) and fever (29%). Among 90 cases and controls, the odds of illness were higher for drinking untreated municipal water (aOR=2.3; 95% CI 1.0 to 6.2) and not knowing about diarrhea transmission (aOR=4.9; 95% CI 1.0 to 21.1). Of 12 stool samples, 6 (50%) tested positive for Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa serotype. Of 15 water samples, 8 (53%) showed growth of fecal coliforms.

CONCLUSIONS

This laboratory-confirmed cholera outbreak associated with drinking untreated municipal water and lack of knowledge of diarrhea transmission triggered public health action in Bhadola, Delhi.

Geospatial analysis of cholera patterns in Nigeria: findings from a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Persistence of cholera outbreaks in developing countries calls for concern and more targeted intervention measures for long-term control. This research undertook spatial analysis of cholera incidence in Nigeria over a seventeen-year period to determine the existence of regional hotspots and predictors.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study design was used for the research. Cholera data for each of the thirty-six states and the federal capital territory (FCT) were obtained from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) of the Federal Ministry of Health, Nigeria. Socioeconomic data including proportion of households using solid waste disposal (unapproved dumpsite, refuse burying, refuse burning, public dumpsite, and refuse collectors), water sources (pipe borne water, well, borehole, rain water, surface waters and water vendors), sewage disposal (water closet, pit latrines, bucket/pan, public toilet and nearby bush/stream), living in a single room and earning less than minimum wage (18,000 naira) were obtained from National Population Commission. On the other hand, proportion of illiterate adults (15 years and above) and poor people; and population density were obtained from National Bureau of Statistics. Each socioeconomic data was obtained at state level. Cholera patterns were analysed at state level using Global Moran's I while specific locations of cholera clusters were determined using Local Moran's I. Stepwise multiple regression was used to determine socioeconomic predictors of cholera incidence.

RESULTS

Local Moran's I revealed significant cluster patterns in 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009 and 2010 in Adamawa, Gombe, Katsina, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, and Kano states. Households using surface water was the significant predictor (23%) of the observed spatial variations in cholera incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Persistence of cholera outbreaks in some north east and north western states calls for more targeted, long-term and effective intervention measures especially on provision of safe sources of water supply by government and other stakeholders.

Cholera Risk: A Machine Learning Approach Applied to Essential Climate Variables

Oceanic and coastal ecosystems have undergone complex environmental changes in recent years, amid a context of climate change. These changes are also reflected in the dynamics of water-borne diseases as some of the causative agents of these illnesses are ubiquitous in the aquatic environment and their survival rates are impacted by changes in climatic conditions. Previous studies have established strong relationships between essential climate variables and the coastal distribution and seasonal dynamics of the bacteria Vibrio cholerae, pathogenic types of which are responsible for human cholera disease. In this study we provide a novel exploration of the potential of a machine learning approach to forecast environmental cholera risk in coastal India, home to more than 200 million inhabitants, utilising atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic satellite-derived essential climate variables. A Random Forest classifier model is developed, trained and tested on a cholera outbreak dataset over the period 2010–2018 for districts along coastal India. The random forest classifier model has an Accuracy of 0.99, an F1 Score of 0.942 and a Sensitivity score of 0.895, meaning that 89.5% of outbreaks are correctly identified. Spatio-temporal patterns emerged in terms of the model’s performance based on seasons and coastal locations. Further analysis of the specific contribution of each Essential Climate Variable to the model outputs shows that chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface salinity and land surface temperature are the strongest predictors of the cholera outbreaks in the dataset used. The study reveals promising potential of the use of random forest classifiers and remotely-sensed essential climate variables for the development of environmental cholera-risk applications. Further exploration of the present random forest model and associated essential climate variables is encouraged on cholera surveillance datasets in other coastal areas affected by the disease to determine the model’s transferability potential and applicative value for cholera forecasting systems.

Phage Types of Vibrio cholerae 01 Biotype ElTor Strains Isolated from India during 2012-2017

Background

Cholera is a primordial disease caused by Vibrio cholerae which existed from centuries in different parts of the world and still shows its periodic, endemic and epidemic presence. Thousands of cholera cases are reported from different parts of India and the disease remains endemic throughout the year. At present, we do not have enough knowledge about the phenotypic nature of the circulating V. cholerae strains in this part of the world.

Objectives

This study was carried out over a period of 6 years with the aim defer with the changes in the prevalence and distribution of biotypes, serotypes and phage types of V. cholerae clinical isolates from various endemic regions of the country to determine phenotypic characteristics of the circulating strains and also to predict the attributes of cholera strains responsible for causing significant outbreaks in future.

Materials and Methods

A total of 1882 V.cholerae O1 isolates from different cholera endemic areas of India were included in this study. V.cholerae strains which were identified as O1 biotype ElTor further analyzed for serotype and phage types using the standard methodologies. Polyvalent O1 and monospecific Inaba and Ogawa antisera were used for serotyping. A panel of five phages of Basu and Mukherjee phage typing scheme and five phages from the new phage typing scheme were used for phage typing analysis following standard methodology.

Results

Maximum numbers of strains were isolated from cholera-endemic states like Gujarat and Maharashtra. All the isolates were confirmed as V. cholerae O1 biotype ElTor and majority of them were serotype Ogawa (93.2%). New phage typing scheme resulted in almost 100% typeable V. cholerae O1 strains included in this study and phage type 27 was the predominant type. Although 80% of the strains used in this study were sensitive to all the vibrio phages, S5 phage was found most efficient in lysing cholera strains indicating its broader host range.

Conclusion

The current study identified phage type 27 as the most dominant type and serotype Ogawa was found continuous in circulation throughout the year which has caused recent cholera outbreaks in India during the past years. Phage sensitivity data propose an alternative cost-effective approach to prevent cholera outbreak by therapeutic uses of typing phages irrespective of origin or clonality of the strains.

Identification of cholera hotspots in Zambia: A spatiotemporal analysis of cholera data from 2008 to 2017

The global burden of cholera is increasing, with the majority (60%) of the cases occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. In Zambia, widespread cholera outbreaks have occurred since 1977, predominantly in the capital city of Lusaka. During both the 2016 and 2018 outbreaks, the Ministry of Health implemented cholera vaccination in addition to other preventative and control measures, to stop the spread and control the outbreak. Given the limitations in vaccine availability and the logistical support required for vaccination, oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is now recommended for use in the high risk areas ("hotspots") for cholera. Hence, the aim of this study was to identify areas with an increased risk of cholera in Zambia. Retrospective cholera case data from 2008 to 2017 was obtained from the Ministry of Health, Department of Public Health and Disease Surveillance. The Zambian Central Statistical Office provided district-level population data, socioeconomic and water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) indicators. To identify districts at high risk, we performed a discrete Poisson-based space-time scan statistic to account for variations in cholera risk across both space and time over a 10-year study period. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was employed to identify the district level risk factors for cholera. The risk map was generated by classifying the relative risk of cholera in each district, as obtained from the space-scan test statistic. In total, 34,950 cases of cholera were reported in Zambia between 2008 and 2017. Cholera cases varied spatially by year. During the study period, Lusaka District had the highest burden of cholera, with 29,080 reported cases. The space-time scan statistic identified 16 districts to be at a significantly higher risk of having cholera. The relative risk of having cholera in these districts was significantly higher and ranged from 1.25 to 78.87 times higher when compared to elsewhere in the country. Proximity to waterbodies was the only factor associated with the increased risk for cholera (P<0.05). This study provides a basis for the cholera elimination program in Zambia. Outside Lusaka, the majority of high risk districts identified were near the border with the DRC, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. This suggests that cholera in Zambia may be linked to movement of people from neighboring areas of cholera endemicity. A collaborative intervention program implemented in concert with neighboring countries could be an effective strategy for elimination of cholera in Zambia, while also reducing rates at a regional level.

Non-vaccine strategies for cholera prevention and control: India's preparedness for the global roadmap

BACKGROUND

Recently World Health Organization's Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) has published a global roadmap for prevention and control of cholera. We review preparedness of existing governmental non-vaccine programs and strategies for cholera prevention and control in India. We also describe strengths and gaps in the context of implementation of the global roadmap.

METHODS

We reviewed published literature on non-vaccine based strategies for prevention and control of cholera in India and analyzed strengths and weaknesses of Government of India's major anti-cholera and ante-diarrhea initiatives under Integrated Disease Surveillance Program (IDSP), National Rural Health Mission (NRHM), and other disease surveillance platforms.

RESULTS

The first strategy of the WHO global roadmap, namely, preparedness for early detection and outbreak containment, has been addressed by the IDSP. NRHM complements IDSP activities by focusing on sanitation, hygiene, nutrition, and safe drinking water. We identified the need to adopt stricter case definitions and data validation protocols. Multi-sectoral approach to prevent cholera occurrences and re-occurrences [the second suggested strategy in the global roadmap], highlights identification of hotspots and implementing strategies based on transmission dynamics. We recommend development of comprehensive models by integrating data sources beyond the national programs to eliminate cholera hotspots in India. Implementing the third proposed strategy in the global roadmap, coordinated technical support, resource mobilization, and partnerships at local and global levels, has major challenges in India due to structural issues related to health systems and health programs.

CONCLUSION

Even with a robust public health infrastructure, absence of a national cholera program might have resulted in lack of specific focus and concerted efforts for cholera prevention and control in India. A National Taskforce for Cholera Control must develop India-specific 'National Cholera Prevention and Response Road Map' with an appropriate administrative and financially viable framework for its implementation.

The history of OCV in India and barriers remaining to programmatic introduction

Cholera-endemic Eastern India has played an important role in the development of oral cholera vaccines (OCV) through conduct of pivotal trials in Kolkata which led to the registration of the first low-cost bivalent killed whole cell OCV in India in 2009, and subsequent prequalification by the World Health Organization prequalification in 2011. Odisha hosted an influential early demonstration project for use of the vaccine in a high-risk population and provided data and lessons that were crucial input in the Vaccine Investment Strategy developed by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance in 2013. With Gavi's decision to finance an OCV stockpile, the demand for OCV surged and vaccine has been deployed with great success worldwide in areas of need in response to outbreaks and disasters, most notably in Africa. However, although India is considered one of the highest burden countries, no further use of OCV has occurred since the demonstration project in Odisha in 2011. In this paper we will summarize the important contributions of India to the development and use of OCV and discuss the possible barriers to OCV introduction as a public health tool to control cholera.

Environmental Reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae: Challenges and Opportunities for Ocean-Color Remote Sensing

The World Health Organization has estimated the burden of the on-going pandemic of cholera at 1.3 to 4 million cases per year worldwide in 2016, and a doubling of case-fatality-rate to 1.8% in 2016 from 0.8% in 2015. The disease cholera is caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae that can be found in environmental reservoirs, living either in free planktonic form or in association with host organisms, non-living particulate matter or in the sediment, and participating in various biogeochemical cycles. An increasing number of epidemiological studies are using land- and water-based remote-sensing observations for monitoring, surveillance, or risk mapping of Vibrio pathogens and cholera outbreaks. Although the Vibrio pathogens cannot be sensed directly by satellite sensors, remotely-sensed data can be used to infer their presence. Here, we review the use of ocean-color remote-sensing data, in conjunction with information on the ecology of the pathogen, to map its distribution and forecast risk of disease occurrence. Finally, we assess how satellite-based information on cholera may help support the Sustainable Development Goals and targets on Health (Goal 3), Water Quality (Goal 6), Climate (Goal 13), and Life Below Water (Goal 14).

Prediction mapping of human leptospirosis using ANN, GWR, SVM and GLM approaches

Background

Recent reports of the National Ministry of Health and Treatment of Iran (NMHT) show that Gilan has a higher annual incidence rate of leptospirosis than other provinces across the country. Despite several efforts of the government and NMHT to eradicate leptospirosis, it remains a public health problem in this province. Modelling and Prediction of this disease may play an important role in reduction of the prevalence.

Methods

This study aims to model and predict the spatial distribution of leptospirosis utilizing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as capable approaches. Five environmental parameters of precipitation, temperature, humidity, elevation and vegetation are used for modelling and predicting of the disease. Data of 2009 and 2010 are used for training, and 2011 for testing and evaluating the models.

Results

Results indicate that utilized approaches in this study can model and predict leptospirosis with high significance level. To evaluate the efficiency of the approaches, MSE (GWR = 0.050, SVM = 0.137, GLM = 0.118 and ANN = 0.137), MAE (0.012, 0.063, 0.052 and 0.063), MRE (0.011, 0.018, 0.017 and 0.018) and R² (0.85, 0.80, 0.78 and 0.75) are used.

Conclusion

Results indicate the practical usefulness of approaches for spatial modelling and predicting leptospirosis. The efficiency of models is as follow: GWR > SVM > GLM > ANN. In addition, temperature and humidity are investigated as the most influential parameters. Moreover, the suitable habitat of leptospirosis is mostly within the central rural districts of the province.

Cholera hotspots and surveillance constraints contributing to recurrent epidemics in Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

We described the dynamics of cholera in Tanzania between 2007 and 2017 and assessed the weaknesses of the current surveillance system in providing necessary data in achieving the global roadmap to 2030 for cholera control.

RESULTS

The Poisson-based spatial scan identified cholera hotspots in mainland Tanzania. A zero-inflated Poisson regression investigated the relationship between the incidence of cholera and available demographic, socio-economic and climatic exposure variables. Four cholera hotspots were detected covering 17 regions, home to 28 million people, including the central regions and those surrounding the Lakes Victoria, Tanganyika and Nyaza. The risk of experiencing cholera in these regions was up to 2.9 times higher than elsewhere in the country. Regression analyses revealed that every 100 km of water perimeter in a region increased the cholera incidence by 1.5%. Due to the compilation of surveillance data at regional level rather than at district, we were unable to reliably identify any other significant risk factors and specific hotspots. Cholera high-risk populations in Tanzania include those living near lakes and central regions. Successful surveillance require disaggregated data available weekly and at district levels in order to serve as data for action to support the roadmap for cholera control.

Cholera in selected countries in Asia

INTRODUCTION

Although the current pandemic of cholera originated in Asia, reports of cholera cases and outbreaks in the region are sparse. To provide a sub-regional assessment of cholera in South and Southeast Asia, we collated published and unpublished data from existing surveillance systems from Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

METHODS

Data from existing country surveillance systems on diarrhea, acute watery diarrhea, suspected cholera and/or confirmed cholera in nine selected Asian countries (Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) from 2011 to 2015 (or 2016, when available) were collated. We reviewed annual cholera reports from WHO and searched PubMed and/or ProMED to complement data, where information is not completely available.

RESULTS

From 2011 to 2016, confirmed cholera cases were identified in at least one year of the 5- or 6-year period in the countries included. Surveillance for cholera exists in most countries, but cases are not always reported. India reported the most number of confirmed cases with a mean of 5964 cases annually. The mean number of cases per year in the Philippines, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Nepal and Thailand were 760, 592, 285, 264, 148 and 88, respectively. Cambodia and Vietnam reported 51 and 3 confirmed cholera cases in 2011, with no subsequent reported cases.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

We present consolidated results of available surveillance in nine Asian countries and supplemented these with publication searches. There is paucity of readily accessible data on cholera in these countries. We highlight the continuing existence of the disease even in areas with improved sanitation and access to safe drinking water. Continued vigilance and improved surveillance in countries should be strongly encouraged.

Trials of the killed oral cholera vaccine (Shanchol) in India and Bangladesh: Lessons learned and way forward

Cholera has been endemic in India and Bangladesh for the greater part of recorded history, giving this region the reputation of being the 'homeland of cholera'. The causative organism Vibrio cholerae O1 has been responsible for large epidemics and pandemics. Bangladesh and India have conducted several sequential studies of Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV) to ascertain its safety, efficacy, effectiveness, field feasibility and acceptance in high-risk urban populations. The objective of this article is to illustrate the experience of OCV use in these endemic settings, its major challenges, and how policymakers can grant vaccine licenses as well as implement its use in the national immunization programme. The relevant aspects of the OCV studies, such as boosting the effect of vaccine, single-dose versus double-dose trials and thermal stability of the vaccine during delivery have generated strong evidence for recommendation of vaccine use in these settings. Studies have shown that a single dose is effective for children of five years of age and older age groups. The locally manufactured vaccine in India is thermostable and can be delivered in field settings without use of cold chain. The vaccine delivery is feasible and the protective efficacy (PE) of this vaccine above five years of age against cholera was 53-65%. Administration of an OCV boosting regimen elicits an immune response similar to those who received a two-dose vaccine five years back. OCV can be used as a preemptive measure in endemic settings, in natural calamities and during political instability when there is total disruption as well as collapse of safe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) facilities and other control measures. Clear identification of areas and target population (who will gain benefit from the OCVs) is required to be developed in endemic settings.

Opportunities and challenges for cholera control in India

The Indo Gangetic delta is homeland for cholera for almost two centuries now and there is evidence of global spread from this area. With migration of people to more urban areas within the country and increase in international travel, it is time for action against cholera in India, given its capacity to present itself in epidemic proportions. The Global roadmap to end cholera by 2030 was launched by the WHO Global Task force for Cholera Control which has led to renewed vigor and convergence of stakeholders across the world against the disease. There is also an emphasis on cleanliness and improved sanitation by the current government. The article discusses the unique opportunity for India in the current scenario, to act against diseases like cholera and challenges that are anticipated in deployment of interventions due to suboptimal surveillance and shortage of vaccines.

Cholera

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review describes the basic epidemiologic, clinical, and microbiologic aspects of cholera, highlights new developments within these areas, and presents strategies for applying currently available tools and knowledge more effectively.

RECENT FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2016, the reported global burden of cholera fluctuated between 74,000 and 595,000 cases per year; however, modeling estimates suggest the real burden is between 1.3 and 4.0 million cases and 95,000 deaths yearly. In 2018, the World Health Assembly endorsed a new initiative to reduce cholera deaths by 90% and eliminate local cholera transmission in 20 countries by 2030. New tools, including localized GIS mapping, climate modeling, whole genome sequencing, oral vaccines, rapid diagnostic tests, and new applications of water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions, could support this goal. Challenges include a high proportion of fragile states among cholera-endemic countries, urbanization, climate change, and the need for cholera treatment guidelines for pregnant women and malnourished children.

SUMMARY

Reducing cholera morbidity and mortality depends on real-time surveillance, outbreak detection and response; timely access to appropriate case management and cholera vaccines; and provision of safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Challenges for programmatic implementation of killed whole cell oral cholera vaccines for prevention and control of cholera: a meta-opinion

INTRODUCTION

Cholera remains a public health threat. The development of safe, effective, easy-to-administer, heat-stable, and cheap killed whole cell oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) has provided an additional tool to counter cholera. In this meta-opinion, we review the challenges of delivering OCVs through the existing public health infrastructure in vulnerable areas.

AREAS COVERED

We provide an overview of the available vaccines against cholera, the existing evidence about the effectiveness of a two-dose as well as a single-dose OCV strategy. We also highlight the experience from the public health campaigns for OCV deployment.

EXPERT OPINION

Several public health experiences have shown the feasibility of incorporating OCVs into the public health response against cholera. Combined with a comprehensive water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) improvement plan, OCVs need to be deployed in identified vulnerable areas, targeting the highest risk groups first. Vaccination programs should not be deployed in lieu of investments in WaSH services, but as a complimentary service in a comprehensive, cholera control intervention package. It has been a challenge to have high two-dose coverage across all eligible recipients, necessitating the adoption of innovative strategies to boost coverage. Longer intervals between doses may help to overcome resource and logistical limitations enabling higher coverage.