Are traditional scoring systems for severity stratification of acute pancreatitis sufficient?

Evaluation of scoring systems and hematological parameters in the severity stratification of early-phase acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an emergency gastrointestinal disease that requires immediate diagnosis and urgent clinical treatment. An accurate assessment and precise staging of severity are essential in initial intensive therapy.

AIM

To explore the prognostic value of inflammatory markers and several scoring systems [Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, the bedside index of severity in AP (BISAP), Ranson's score, the computed tomography severity index (CTSI) and sequential organ failure assessment] in severity stratification of early-phase AP.

METHODS

A total of 463 patients with AP admitted to our hospital between 1 January 2021 and 30 June 2024 were retrospectively enrolled in this study. Inflammation marker and scoring system levels were calculated and compared between different severity groups. Relationships between severity and several predictors were evaluated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. Predictive ability was estimated using receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

Of the 463 patients, 50 (10.80%) were classified as having severe AP (SAP). The results revealed that the white cell count significantly increased, whereas the prognostic nutritional index measured within 48 hours (PNI48) and calcium (Ca2+) were decreased as the severity of AP increased (P < 0.001). According to multivariate logistic regression, C-reactive protein measured within 48 hours (CRP48), Ca2+ levels, and PNI48 were independent risk factors for predicting SAP. The area under the curve (AUC) values for the CRP48, Ca2+, PNI48, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, sequential organ failure assessment, BISAP, CTSI, and Ranson scores for the prediction of SAP were 0.802, 0.736, 0.871, 0.799, 0.783, 0.895, 0.931 and 0.914, respectively. The AUC for the combined CRP48 + Ca2+ + PNI48 model was 0.892. The combination of PNI48 and Ranson achieved an AUC of 0.936.

CONCLUSION

Independent risk factors for developing SAP include CRP48, Ca2+, and PNI48. CTSI, BISAP, and the combination of PNI48 and the Ranson score can act as reliable predictors of SAP.

Organ Failure and Prediction of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis

Organ failure (OF) is a sinister development in the clinical course of acute pancreatitis, and its prediction is crucial for triaging the patient. Persistent systemic inflammatory response syndrome and raised interleukin-6 levels have a good predictive accuracy. Pathophysiology involves the release of damage-associated molecular patterns as a consequence of pancreatic injury, recruitment of inflammatory cells, and the release of proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines causing cytokine storm. Respiratory system is the most common and earliest to fail. Although a few therapeutic options are in the pipeline, renewed efforts are required to develop targeted therapies to mitigate systemic inflammation and OF.

Are outcomes for emergency index-admission laparoscopic cholecystectomy performed by hepatopancreatobiliary surgeons better compared to non-hepatopancreatobiliary surgeons? A 10-year audit using 1:1 propensity score matching

BACKGROUND

Emergency index-admission cholecystectomy (EIC) is recommended for acute cholecystitis in most cases. General surgeons have less exposure in managing "difficult" cholecystectomies. This study aimed to compare the outcomes of EIC between hepatopancreatobiliary (HPB) versus non-HPB surgeons.

METHODS

This is a 10-year retrospective audit on patients who underwent EIC from December 2011 to March 2022. Patients who underwent open cholecystectomy, had previous cholecystitis, previous endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography or cholecystostomy were excluded. A 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to adjust for confounding variables (e.g. age ≥ 75 years, history of abdominal surgery, presence of dense adhesions).

RESULTS

There were 1409 patients (684 HPB cases, 725 non-HPB cases) in the unmatched cohort. Majority (52.3%) of them were males with a mean age of 59.2 ± 14.9 years. Among 472 (33.5%) patients with EIC performed ≥ 72 hours after presentation, 40.1% had dense adhesion. The incidence of any morbidity, open conversion, subtotal cholecystectomy and bile duct injury were 12.4%, 5.0%, 14.6% and 0.1%, respectively. There was one mortality within 30 days from EIC. PSM resulted in 1166 patients (583 per group). Operative time was shorter when EIC was performed by HPB surgeons (115.5 vs. 133.4 min, P < 0.001). The mean length of hospital stay was comparable. EIC performed by HPB surgeons was independently associated with lower open conversion [odds ratio (OR) = 0.24, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.12-0.49, P < 0.001], lower fundus-first cholecystectomy (OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.35-0.95, P = 0.032), but higher subtotal cholecystectomy (OR = 4.19, 95% CI: 2.24-7.84, P < 0.001). Any morbidity, bile duct injury and mortality were comparable between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

EIC performed by HPB surgeons were associated with shorter operative time and reduced risk of open conversion. However, the incidence of subtotal cholecystectomy was higher.

Practical approach to acute pancreatitis: from diagnosis to the management of complications

The purpose of this review is to provide a practical guide for the clinical care of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) from the management of the early phases of disease to the treatment of local complications. AP is one of the most frequent causes of gastroenterological admission in emergency departments. It is characterized by a dynamic and unpredictable course and in its most severe forms, is associated with organ dysfunction and/or local complications, requiring intensive care with significant morbidity and mortality. Initial therapy includes adequate fluid resuscitation, nutrition, analgesia, and when necessary critical care support. In recent years, the development of minimally invasive tailored treatments for local complications, such as endoscopic drainage, has improved patients' acceptance and outcomes. Despite this, the management of AP remains a challenge for clinicians. The present review was conducted by the authors, who formulated specific questions addressing the most critical and current aspects of the clinical course of AP with the aim of providing key messages.

Heart rate variability in acute pancreatitis: a narrative review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a complex inflammatory disorder with potential systemic repercussions including sepsis, multiple organ failure and mortality. As such, the development of a prognostic tool to assess the complications and severity of AP is critical as urgent medical intervention is warranted in cases of severe AP to prevent complications and reduce mortality. Despite the plethora of scoring systems such as the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score available for prognostication of AP, they often require manual invasive blood testing and lack the ability to monitor the dynamic progression of the disease. To this end, heart rate variability (HRV), a measure of the autonomic nervous system's modulation on cardiac activity, has emerged as a promising tool. Having been previously posited as a tool to monitor the progression of cardiovascular and neurological conditions, the use of HRV as a risk stratification tool for AP is highly plausible. Therefore, this study aims to synthesize the existing literature regarding the usage of HRV as a tool for the prognostication and monitoring of AP.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted in PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Web of Science, Scopus and Embase from inception to December 2023. Articles with mentions of AP and HRV were reviewed, and the complications of AP and its effects on HRV parameters were analyzed.

KEY CONTENT AND FINDINGS

Early studies on the use of HRV in AP have revealed the association of decreased HRV parameters with the development of subsequent complications, reflecting the suppression of sympathetic activity as a predominant driving force. In addition, HRV has also been shown to outperform other established scoring systems in predicting outcomes of the complications of AP, but more studies are needed to validate its accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Preliminary studies have shown that certain parameters of HRV may be used to predict the severity of AP and prognosticate outcomes. Although HRV monitoring demonstrates potential to be superior to existing scoring systems in AP, more research is needed to validate its use as a prognostic tool. Nevertheless, the prospective utility of HRV monitoring in predicting the onset and outcomes of AP and its complications remains optimistic.

Predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis: Current approaches and future directions

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a sudden-onset inflammatory disease of the pancreas. The severity of AP is classified into mild, moderate, and severe categories based on the presence and persistence of organ failure. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. It requires early recognition for appropriate timely management. Prognostic scores for predicting SAP incorporating many clinical, laboratory, and radiological parameters have been developed in the past. However, all of these prognostic scores have low positive predictive value for SAP and some of these scores require >24 h for assessment. There is a need to develop biomarkers that can accurately identify patients at risk for SAP early in the course of the presentation. In this review, we aim to provide a summary of the most commonly utilized prognostic scores for AP and discuss future directions.

The Ongoing Debate on the Use of Prophylactic Antibiotics in Acute Pancreatitis-Is There a Conclusion? A Comprehensive Narrative Review

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common but often self-limiting disease in the majority of patients. However, in the minority, who may progress to moderately severe or severe AP, high mortality risk has been reported. Infected pancreatitis necrosis (IPN) in necrotising pancreatitis has been shown to result in more than twice the mortality rate compared with in sterile pancreatic necrosis. This raises the question on whether prophylactic antibiotics (PABs) should be given in subgroups of AP to prevent superimposed infection to improve survival outcomes. Despite numerous randomised controlled trials (RCTs), meta-analyses, and guidelines on the management of AP, there is a lack of strong evidence to suggest the use of PABs in AP. Additionally, use of PABs is associated with antimicrobial resistance. Considerable heterogeneity exists and limits the interpretation of results-subgroup of AP benefitting from PAB use, choice/class of PAB, and timing of administration from symptom onset and duration of PAB use. Only a minority of existing meta-analyses suggest mortality benefits and reduction in IPN. The majority of existing guidelines do not recommend the use of PABs in AP. More research is required to make more definitive conclusions. Currently, PAB should only be administered after multidisciplinary discussions led by pancreatology experts.

Potential Predictors of Severe and Recurrent Pancreatitis in Children: A Single-Center Experience

OBJECTIVES

Severe pancreatitis often requires intensive care; therefore, early detection is important. This study aimed to evaluate the possible predictors of pancreatitis severity in children. Furthermore, we evaluated the prevalence of pancreatitis recurrence and related factors.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of patients aged younger than 18 years who were diagnosed with acute pancreatitis between January 2017 and June 2022. Acute pancreatitis was diagnosed and classified based on the revised Atlanta criteria.

RESULTS

A total of 64 patients were enrolled, and severe pancreatitis was observed in 10 (15.6%) patients. Patients with severe pancreatitis were younger and had higher C-reactive protein levels than those with mild pancreatitis. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of C-reactive protein levels at admission and 48 hours after diagnosis were 0.612 (95% confidence interval, 0.379-0.844) and 0.873 (95% confidence interval, 0.537-0.983), respectively. Fourteen patients (21.9%) experienced further episodes of recurrent pancreatitis. Patients with recurrent pancreatitis were older (13.7 vs 11.4 years, P = 0.022) and prominently boys (85.7 vs 52%, P = 0.022) compared with those without recurrence. Obesity was observed in 4 (0.6%) patients, which was confirmed in all recurrence groups and was statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated the feasibility of C-reactive protein in the early risk assessment of patients with acute pancreatitis and highlighted the potential risk of recurrence in patients with obesity.

Establishment and Validation of a Nomogram Prediction Model for the Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Background

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can progress to lung and kidney dysfunction, and blood clotting within 48 hours of its onset, and is associated with a high mortality rate. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable diagnostic prediction model for the early stage of severe pancreatitis.

Methods

The clinical data of patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis from October 2017 to June 2022 at the Shangluo Central Hospital were collected. The risk factors were screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis. A novel nomogram model was then established by multivariable logistic regression analysis.

Results

The data of 436 patients with acute pancreatitis, 45 (10.3%) patients had progressed to SAP. Through univariate and LASSO regression analyses, the neutrophils (P <0.001), albumin (P < 0.001), blood glucose (P < 0.001), serum calcium (P < 0.001), serum creatinine (P < 0.001), blood urea nitrogen (P < 0.001) and procalcitonin (P = 0.005) were identified as independent predictive factors for SAP. The nomogram built on the basis of these factors predicted SAP with sensitivity of 0.733, specificity of 0.9, positive predictive value of 0.458 and negative predictive value of 0.967. Furthermore, the concordance index of the nomogram reached 0.889 (95% CI, 0.837-0.941), and the area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was significantly higher than that of the APACHEII and ABISAP scoring systems. The established model was validated by plotting the clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC).

Conclusion

We established a nomogram to predict the progression of early acute pancreatitis to SAP with high discrimination and accuracy.

Development and Validation of a Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting in-Hospital Mortality in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study in the Intensive Care Unit

PURPOSE

The aim of this study is to develop and validate a predictive model for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) based on the intensive care database.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We analyzed the data of patients with AP in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database and Electronic Intensive Care Unit Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD). Then, patients from MIMIC-IV were divided into a development group and a validation group according to the ratio of 8:2, and eICU-CRD was assigned as an external validation group. Univariate logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression were used for screening the best predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to establish a dynamic nomogram. We evaluated the discrimination, calibration, and clinical efficacy of the nomogram, and compared the performance of the nomogram with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score and Bedside Index of Severity in AP (BISAP) score.

RESULTS

A total of 1030 and 514 patients with AP in MIMIC-IV database and eICU-CRD were included in the study. After stepwise analysis, 8 out of a total of 37 variables were selected to construct the nomogram. The dynamic nomogram can be obtained by visiting https://model.sci-inn.com/KangZou/. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.859, 0.871, and 0.847 in the development, internal, and external validation set respectively. The nomogram had a similar performance with APACHE-II (AUC = 0.841, p = 0.537) but performed better than BISAP (AUC = 0.690, p = 0.001) score in the validation group. Moreover, the calibration curve presented a satisfactory predictive accuracy, and the decision curve analysis suggested great clinical application value of the nomogram.

CONCLUSION

Based on the results of internal and external validation, the nomogram showed favorable discrimination, calibration, and clinical practicability in predicting the in-hospital mortality of patients with AP.

Occam's razor or Hickam's dictum-COVID-19 is not a textbook aetiology of acute pancreatitis: A modified Naranjo Score appraisal

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a disease spectrum ranging from mild to severe disease. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, numerous reports of AP have been published, with most authors concluding a causal relationship between COVID-19 and AP. Retrospective case reports or small case series are unable to accurately determine the cause-effect relationship between COVID-19 and AP.

AIM

To establish whether COVID-19 is a cause of AP using the modified Naranjo scoring system.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted on PubMed, World of Science and Embase for articles reporting COVID-19 and AP from inception to August 2021. Exclusion criteria were cases of AP which were not reported to be due to COVID-19 infection, age < 18 years old, review articles and retrospective cohort studies. The original 10-item Naranjo scoring system (total score 13) was devised to approximate the likelihood of a clinical presentation to be secondary to an adverse drug reaction. We modified the original scoring system into a 8-item modified Naranjo scoring system (total score 9) to determine the cause-effect relationship between COVID-19 and AP. A cumulative score was decided for each case presented in the included articles. Interpretation of the modified Naranjo scoring system is as follows: ≤ 3: Doubtful, 4-6: Possible, ≥ 7: Probable cause.

RESULTS

The initial search resulted in 909 articles, with 740 articles after removal of duplicates. A total of 67 articles were included in the final analysis, with 76 patients which had AP reported to be due to COVID-19. The mean age was 47.8 (range 18-94) years. Majority of patients (73.3%) had ≤ 7 d between onset of COVID-19 infection and diagnosis of AP. There were only 45 (59.2%) patients who had adequate investigations to rule out common aetiologies (gallstones, choledocholithiasis, alcohol, hypertriglyceridemia, hypercalcemia and trauma) of AP. Immunoglobulin G4 testing was conducted in 9 (13.5%) patients to rule out autoimmune AP. Only 5 (6.6%) patients underwent endoscopic ultrasound and/or magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatogram to rule out occult microlithiasis, pancreatic malignancy and pancreas divisum. None of the patients had other recently diagnosed viral infections apart from COVID-19 infection, or underwent genetic testing to rule out hereditary AP. There were 32 (42.1%), 39 (51.3%) and 5 (6.6%) patients with doubtful, possible, and probable cause-effect relationship respectively between COVID-19 and AP.

CONCLUSION

Current evidence is weak to establish a strong link between COVID-19 and AP. Investigations should be performed to rule out other causes of AP before establishing COVID-19 as an aetiology.

Diagnosis, severity stratification and management of adult acute pancreatitis-current evidence and controversies

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a disease spectrum ranging from mild to severe with an unpredictable natural course. Majority of cases (80%) are mild and self-limiting. However, severe AP (SAP) has a mortality risk of up to 30%. Establishing aetiology and risk stratification are essential pillars of clinical care. Idiopathic AP is a diagnosis of exclusion which should only be used after extended investigations fail to identify a cause. Tenets of management of mild AP include pain control and management of aetiology to prevent recurrence. In SAP, patients should be resuscitated with goal-directed fluid therapy using crystalloids and admitted to critical care unit. Routine prophylactic antibiotics have limited clinical benefit and should not be given in SAP. Patients able to tolerate oral intake should be given early enteral nutrition rather than nil by mouth or parenteral nutrition. If unable to tolerate per-orally, nasogastric feeding may be attempted and routine post-pyloric feeding has limited evidence of clinical benefit. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatogram should be selectively performed in patients with biliary obstruction or suspicion of acute cholangitis. Delayed step-up strategy including percutaneous retroperitoneal drainage, endoscopic debridement, or minimal-access necrosectomy are sufficient in most SAP patients. Patients should be monitored for diabetes mellitus and pseudocyst.

Predicting Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis has a diverse etiology and natural history, and some patients have severe complications with a high risk of mortality. The prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis should be achieved by a careful ongoing clinical assessment coupled with the use of a multiple-factor scoring system and imaging studies. Over the past 40 years, various scoring systems have been suggested to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis. However, there is no definite and ideal scoring system with a high sensitivity and specificity. The interest in new biological markers and predictive models for identifying severe acute pancreatitis testifies to the continued clinical importance of early severity prediction. Although contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) is considered the gold standard for diagnosing pancreatic necrosis, early scanning for the prediction of severity is limited because the full extent of pancreatic necrosis may not develop within the first 48 h of presentation. This article provides an overview of the available scoring systems and biochemical markers for predicting severe acute pancreatitis, with a focus on their characteristics and limitations.

The Value of RANSON Score Combined with BMI in Predicting the Mortality in Severe Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Study

Objective

To explore the value of modified RANSON score in predicting mortality from severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

Methods

In this retrospective study, 461 SAP patients hospitalized from January 2016 to January 2020 were enrolled. AP (acute pancreatitis) patients from our hospital were employed as the training set. In addition, AP patients from the affiliated hospital of Nantong University were set as the validation set. The clinical characteristics of patients were compared between the two sets. The independent risk factors for SAP were determined through logistic regression. Moreover, the risk factors were derived for various prediction models by logistic regression. Multiple methods were adopted to assess the predictive ability of various models.

Results

A total of 338 patients were assigned into the training set, while 123 patients were assigned into the validation set. The patients in the training and validation sets showed the consistent distribution trends (P>0.05). In the training set, significant differences between patients in the non-survival and survival groups were BMI, PCT, platelets (PLT), direct bilirubin (DBil) and RANSON scores (P<0.05). In further multivariate analysis, BMI, PCT and RANSON score were found as the independent risk factors for the mortality of SAP (OR=1.12, 1.25, 1.28, 95% CI:1.06–1.19, 1.08–1.44, 1.12–1.47, P<0.05). In the training set and validation set, ROC curve analysis showed that AUC of BMI+RANSON score was 0.778 and 0.789, respectively. In the calibration curve, the fitting degree of RANSON score+BMI and ideal assessment model was 0.975 and 0.854, respectively. The decision curve suggested that the net benefit per patient increased with the lengthening of the RANSON score+ BMI model curve. As revealed by the results of NRI and IDI indicators, RANSON score+BMI was optimized based on RANSON score (P<0.05).

Conclusion

BMI+RANSON was confirmed as a modified model effective in predicting the mortality from SAP.

Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio in Patients with Hypertriglyceridemic Pancreatitis Predicts Persistent Organ Failure

BACKGROUND

The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been proposed as a surrogate marker of inflammation with prognostic value in various diseases. Our objective was to investigate the predictive value of the NLR as an indicator of persistent organ failure (POF) in patients with hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (HTGP).

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the data from patients with HTGP between 2016 and 2019. The NLR was obtained at admission. The diagnostic performance of the NLR for POF was evaluated by the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUROC). Multivariate logistic regression determined whether elevated NLR was independently associated with POF.

RESULTS

Of the 446 patients enrolled, 89 (20.0%) developed POF. Patients with POF showed a significantly higher NLR than those without POF (P < 0.001). A positive trend for the association across increasing NLR quartiles and the incidence of POF was observed (P trend < 0.001). The AUROC of NLR to predict POF was 0.673 (95% confidence interval, 0.627-0.716). With a cut-off of NLR > 6.56, the sensitivity and specificity were 73.0% and 55.7%, respectively. Multivariate analysis suggested that high NLR (>6.56) was independently associated with POF (odds ratio, 2.580; 95% confidence interval, 1.439-4.626; P = 0.001). Patients with a high NLR (>6.56) had a worse overall clinical course in HTGP.

CONCLUSION

Elevated NLR was significantly associated with an increased risk of developing POF and could be an early independent predictor of POF in patients with HTGP.

Acute Pancreatitis and Prognosticating Its Severity in Young Adults: A Case Report

Acute pancreatitis develops into mild acute, moderately severe, and severe forms in multiple clinical scenarios. The severity assessment of pancreatitis relies on various scoring systems, including CT Severity Index (CTSI), Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome (MODS), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II), Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), Multiple Organ System Score (MOSS), Glasgow score, and Ranson's Criteria (RC). This case report corresponds to a 20-year-old male with acute pancreatitis of unknown etiology. The RC scoring method produced two points, which could not prognosticate the possible severity of acute pancreatitis in the young patient. The hospital course included intubation with mechanical ventilation and ICU management. 

Diagnostic utility of hematological indices in predicting adverse outcomes and severity of acute pancreatitis based on BISAP and modified Glasgow score

BACKGROUND

The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte-ratio (PLR), and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) are simple indicators of inflammatory status previously established as a severity indicator in distinct disease states. This study aimed to determine the impact of these simple hematologic indices with conventional inflammation markers such as C-reactive pro-tein (CRP) and white blood cells in acute pancreatitis (AP) patients and their relationship with AP risk stratification scores including Bedside Index for Severity of Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and modified Glaskow Prognostic score (mGPS) scores.

METHODS

This retrospective study was performed in the emergency department of Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University. A total of 171 patients (male/female: 68 [39.8%]/103 [60.3%]) with AP and 59 age and gender matched healthy subjects (male/female: 23 [39%]/36[61%]) as controls were enrolled in the present study. The patients were grouped according to severity and adverse outcomes according to BISAP and mGPS and a comparative analysis was performed to compare the NLR, PLR, and RDW between groups.

RESULTS

The mean NLR values of AP patients and control group were 9.62±6.34 and 2.04±1.08, respectively (p<0.001), while the mean PLR values of AP patients and control group were 221.83±122.43 and 83.30±38.89, respectively (p<0.001). Except from RDW, all the other hematologic indices were found to be elevated (p<0.05 for WBC; NLR, PLR, and CRP) on both mild and severe disease at disease onset. NLR and PLR showed significant predictive ability for estimating serious complications associated with AP.

CONCLUSION

The present study showed that NLR and PLR is increased in AP. Moreover, peripheral blood NLR and PLR values can predict disease severity and adverse outcomes associated with AP and can be used as an adjunctive marker for estimating disease severity.

Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index (SII) Can Be an Early Indicator for Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Study

Objective

Systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) is a new systemic inflammatory prognostic indicator associated with outcomes in patients with different tumors. Studies have shown an association between SII and many chronic/acute inflammatory diseases. This study aimed at exploring whether SII can be used as an effective parameter for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP).

Methods

A total of 101 acute pancreatitis patients were enrolled in this study (mild acute pancreatitis (MAP): n = 73 and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP): n = 28). Patient demographics and SII were analyzed using the chi-square test, Student’s t-test, and Mann–Whitney U-test. A receiver operating characteristic curve was generated to test the potential of using neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and SII to predict AP’s severity. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine major risk factors.

Results

Patients with SII value ≥2207.53 had a higher probability of having SAP (sensitivity = 92.9%, specificity = 87.7%, and AUC = 0.920), and SII was a significantly better predictive value than PLR and NLR. Logistic regression analysis results showed SII could differentiate MAP from SAP as a major risk factor.

Conclusion

This study has shown that SII is a potential indicator for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis. The findings suggested that SII is more sensitive and specific than NLR and PLR in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis.

The role of the BISAP score in predicting acute pancreatitis severity according to the revised Atlanta classification: a single tertiary care unit experience from Turkey

BACKGROUND/AIMS

In this study, we examine the utility of Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), which is an increasingly more commonly used simple and practical novel scoring system for predicting the prognosis and severity of the disease at presentation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Consecutive patients diagnosed with AP between January 2013 and December 2020 were evaluated retrospectively. The AP severity was assessed using the revised Atlanta classification (RAC). BISAP score, demographic characteristics, pancreatitis etiology, pancreatitis history, duration of hospital stay, and mortality rates of the patients were recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 1000 adult patients were included, of whom 589 (58.9%) were female and 411 (41.1%) were male. The mean age in female and male patients was 62.15 ± 17.79 and 58.1 ± 16.33 years, respectively (p >0.05). The most common etiological factor was biliary AP (55.8%), followed by idiopathic AP (23%). Based on RAC, 389 (38.9%), 418 (41.8%), and 193 (19.3%) patients had mild, moderate, and severe AP. Of the 1000 patients, 42 (4.2%) died. Significant predictors of mortality included advanced age (>65 y) (p=0.003), hypertension (p=0.007), and ischemic heart disease (p=0.001). A BISAP score of ≥3 had a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 79.79%, 91.57%, 69.37%, and 94.99%, respectively, for determining SAP patients according to RAC.

CONCLUSION

BISAP is an effective scoring system with a high NPV in predicting the severity of AP in the early course of the disease in a Turkish population.

Validation of Tokyo Guidelines 2007 and Tokyo Guidelines 2013/2018 Criteria for Acute Cholangitis and Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality

BACKGROUND

Acute cholangitis (AC) is a common emergency with a significant mortality risk. The Tokyo Guidelines (TG) provide recommendations for diagnosis, severity stratification, and management of AC. However, validation of the TG remains poor. This study aims to validate TG07, TG13, and TG18 criteria and identify predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with AC.

METHODS

This is a retrospective audit of patients with a discharge diagnosis of AC in the year 2016. Demographic, clinical, investigation, management and mortality data were documented. We performed a multinomial logistic regression analysis with stepwise variable selection to identify severity predictors for in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Two hundred sixty-two patients with a median age of 75.9 years (IQR 64.8-82.8) years were included for analysis. TG13/TG18 diagnostic criteria were more sensitive than TG07 diagnostic criteria (85.1 vs. 75.2%; p < 0.006). The majority of the patients (n = 178; 67.9%) presented with abdominal pain, pyrexia (n = 156; 59.5%), and vomiting (n = 123; 46.9%). Blood cultures were positive in 95 (36.3%) patients, and 79 (83.2%) patients had monomicrobial growth. The 30-day, 90-day, and in-hospital mortality numbers were 3 (1.1%), 11 (4.2%), and 15 (5.7%), respectively. In multivariate analysis, type 2 diabetes mellitus (OR = 12.531; 95% CI 0.354-116.015; p = 0.026), systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg (OR = 10.108; 95% CI 1.094-93.395; p = 0.041), Glasgow coma score <15 (OR = 38.16; 95% CI 1.804-807.191; p = 0.019), and malignancy (OR = 14.135; 95% CI 1.017-196.394; p = 0.049) predicted in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

TG13/18 diagnostic criteria are more sensitive than TG07 diagnostic criteria. Type 2 diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg, Glasgow coma score <15, and malignant etiology predict in-hospital mortality in patients with AC. These predictors could be considered in acute stratification and treatment of patients with AC.

3D Laparoscopic common bile duct exploration with primary repair by absorbable barbed suture is safe and feasible

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), with interval laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC), is the most common treatment approach for common bile duct (CBD) stones. However, recent studies show that single-stage laparoscopic CBD exploration (LCBDE) is safe and feasible. Three-dimensional (3D) laparoscopy enhances depth perception and facilitates intracorporeal suturing. The application of 3D technology for LCBDE is emerging, and we report our case series of 3D LCBDE.

METHODS

We audited the 27 consecutive 3D LCBDE performed from July 2017 to January 2020. We have a liberal policy for magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) in patients with deranged liver function tests (LFT). All CBD explorations were done through choledochotomy with a 5 mm flexible choledochoscope and primarily repaired with an absorbable barbed suture without a stent or T-tube.

RESULTS

The mean age of patients was 68 (range 44-91) years, and 12 (44%) were male. The indications for surgery were choledocholithiasis 67% (n=18), cholangitis 22% (n=6), and gallstone pancreatitis 11% (n=3). About 67% (n=18) had pre-operative ERCP. About 37% (n=10) had pre-operative biliary stent. Pre-operative MRCP was done in 74% (n=20), and the mean diameter of CBD was 14.5 mm (range 7-30). The median operative time was 160 (range 80-265) min. The operative drain was inserted in 18 patients. One patient each (4%) had a bile leak and a retained stone. There was no open conversion, readmission, or mortality.

CONCLUSION

3D LCBDE with primary repair by an absorbable barbed suture is safe and feasible.

RELEVANCE FOR PATIENTS

This paper emphasized that one stage LCBDE should be a treatment option which is comparable with two stage ERCP followed by LC to treat CBD stones. In addition, 3D technology and barbed sutures use in LCBDE are safe and useful.

Gut microbiome in acute pancreatitis: A review based on current literature

The gut microbiome is a complex microbial community, recognized for its potential role in physiology, health, and disease. The available evidence supports the role of gut dysbiosis in pancreatic disorders, including acute pancreatitis (AP). In AP, the presence of gut barrier damage resulting in increased mucosal permeability may lead to translocation of intestinal bacteria, necrosis of pancreatic and peripancreatic tissue, and infection, often accompanied by multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Preserving gut microbial homeostasis may reduce the systemic effects of AP. A growing body of evidence suggests the possible involvement of the gut microbiome in various pancreatic diseases, including AP. This review discusses the possible role of the gut microbiome in AP. It highlights AP treatment and supplementation with prebiotics, synbiotics, and probiotics to maintain gastrointestinal microbial balance and effectively reduce hospitalization, morbidity and mortality in an early phase. It also addresses novel therapeutic areas in the gut microbiome, personalized treatment, and provides a roadmap of human microbial contributions to AP that have potential clinical benefit.

Ranson score to stratify severity in Acute Pancreatitis remains valid - Old is gold

Introduction: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common gastrointestinal disease with a wide spectrum of severity and morbidity. Developed in 1974, the Ranson score was the first scoring system to prognosticate AP. Over the past decades, while the Ranson score remains widely used, it was identified to have certain limitations, such as having low predictive power. It has also been criticized for its 48-hour requirement for computation of the final score, which has been argued to potentially delay management. With advancements in our understanding of AP, is the Ranson score still relevant as an effective prognostication system for AP?Areas covered: This review summarizes the available evidence comparing Ranson score with other conventional and novel scoring systems, in terms of prognostic accuracy, benefits, limitations and clinical applicability. It also evaluates the effectiveness of Ranson score with regard to the Revised Atlanta Classification.Expert opinion: The Ranson score consistently exhibits comparable prognostic accuracy to other newer scoring systems, and the 48-hour timeframe for computing the full Ranson score is an inherent strength, not a weakness. These aspects, coupled with relative ease of use, practicality and universality of the score, advocate for the continued relevance of the Ranson score in modern clinical practice.

Accuracy of conventional and novel scoring systems in predicting severity and outcomes of acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Recently, several novel scoring systems have been developed to evaluate the severity and outcomes of acute pancreatitis. This study aimed to compare the effectiveness of novel and conventional scoring systems in predicting the severity and outcomes of acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

Patients treated between January 2003 and August 2020 were reviewed. The Ranson score (RS), Glasgow score (GS), bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), pancreatic activity scoring system (PASS), and Chinese simple scoring system (CSSS) were determined within 48 h after admission. Multivariate logistic regression was used for severity, mortality, and organ failure prediction. Optimum cutoffs were identified using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 1848 patients were included. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of RS, GS, BISAP, PASS, and CSSS for severity prediction were 0.861, 0.865, 0.829, 0.778, and 0.816, respectively. The corresponding AUCs for mortality prediction were 0.693, 0.736, 0.789, 0.858, and 0.759. The corresponding AUCs for acute respiratory distress syndrome prediction were 0.745, 0.784, 0.834, 0.936, and 0.820. Finally, the corresponding AUCs for acute renal failure prediction were 0.707, 0.734, 0.781, 0.868, and 0.816.

CONCLUSIONS

RS and GS predicted severity better than they predicted mortality and organ failure, while PASS predicted mortality and organ failure better. BISAP and CSSS performed equally well in severity and outcome predictions.

Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 - tumor marker: Past, present, and future

Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) is a cell surface glycoprotein complex most commonly associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Koprowski first described it in 1979 using a mouse monoclonal antibody in a colorectal carcinoma cell line. Historically, it is one of the most commonly used tumor markers for diagnosing, managing, and prognosticating PDAC. Additionally, elevated CA 19-9 levels are used as an indication for surgery in suspected benign pancreatic conditions. Another common application of CA 19-9 in the biliary tract includes its use as an adjunct in diagnosing cholangiocarcinoma. However, its clinical value is not limited to the hepatopancreatobiliary system. The reality is that the advancing literature has broadened the clinical value of CA 19-9. The potential value of CA 19-9 in patients' workup extends its reach to gastrointestinal cancers - such as colorectal and oesophageal cancer - and further beyond the gastrointestinal tract - including urological, gynecological, pulmonary, and thyroid pathologies. Apart from its role in investigations, CA 19-9 presents a potential therapeutic target in PDAC and acute pancreatitis. In a bid to consolidate its broad utility, we appraised and reviewed the biomarker's current utility and limitations in investigations and management, while discussing the potential applications for CA 19-9 in the works for the future.

Impaired Handgrip Strength Does Not Predict Postoperative Morbidity in Major Hepatobiliary Surgery

BACKGROUND

Assessment of preoperative handgrip strength (HGS) is an objective and inexpensive bedside tool, which has been investigated to predict morbidity risk in elective surgery. However, its use is not validated in patients undergoing major elective hepatobiliary surgery (MEHS). The aim of this study is to investigate the use of HGS to predict morbidity in patients undergoing MEHS.

METHODS

This is a single-center prospective study involving 81 patients who underwent MEHS over 21 mo from July 2014 to March 2016. MEHS was defined as any hepatobiliary surgery expected to last more than 2 h and/or with an anticipated blood loss of ≥500 mL. HGS was assessed in both dominant and nondominant hands with standardization and subsequently recorded and expressed as a percentage of a general, age- and gender-matched normative values.

RESULTS

The mean age was 65.2 ± 9.5 y with male predominance (n = 52, 64.2%). Approximately, half of the patients underwent liver resection (n = 43, 53.1%). There was no difference in the incidence of Clavien-Dindo ≥ grade IIIA in both dominant HGS (impaired HGS 8/33 [24.2%], normal HGS 6/48 [12.5%]; P = 0.170) and nondominant HGS (impaired HGS 8/33 [21.1%], normal HGS 6/43 [14%]; P = 0.399). Dominant and nondominant HGS showed poor discriminatory ability in the prediction of Clavien-Dindo ≥ grade IIIA complications (dominant HGS area under the curve [AUC] = 0.572; nondominant HGS AUC 0.545). However, the use of dominant HGS showed moderate discriminatory ability to predict the length of hospital stay ≥21 d (AUC = 0.759).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of HGS may not predict Clavien-Dindo ≥ grade IIIA complications, but predicts a prolonged length of hospital stay ≥21 d.

Albumin-bilirubin score is associated with in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

Acute pancreatitis is one of the most common causes of inpatient care among gastrointestinal conditions. Few easy and commodious biomarkers are used in clinical practice to predict the prognosis of patients with acute pancreatitis. This study was aimed at examining the association of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score and in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

We enrolled all critically ill patients with acute pancreatitis retrospectively in Monitoring in Intensive Care Database III database. Clinical data and demographic information were collected for each patient in our study. Multivariate logistic regression models and smooth curve fitting were used to determine whether ALBI score could be an independent indicator for the prognosis of patients with acute pancreatitis. Predictive performance of ALBI was assessed by receiver operating characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 284 patients with acute pancreatitis met the inclusion criteria, and 35 patients died in hospital. The ALBI in nonsurvived group was much higher than survived group (-1.0 vs. -1.5; P < 0.001). The association of ALBI and in-hospital mortality was almost linear by smooth curve fitting (P < 0.001) and positive associations were observed between ALBI and RDW and WBC in patients with acute pancreatitis. Multivariate logistic regression indicated ALBI could be independent risk factors to predict the prognosis of patients with acute pancreatitis (odds ratios = 1.60; P = 0.02). The area under curve of in-hospital mortality prediction (0.86; P < 0.001) were superior to Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (0.72; P < 0.001), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS-II) (0.71; P < 0.001), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II, 0.83; P < 0.001), Ranson score (0.75; P < 0.001) and Glasgow score (0.72; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

ALBI could be a useful marker of in-hospital mortality for patients with acute pancreatitis, which was better than SOFA, SAPS-II, APACHE-II, Ranson score and Glasgow score in our study.

Multifactorial Scores and Biomarkers of Prognosis of Acute Pancreatitis: Applications to Research and Practice

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe inflammation of the pancreas presented with sudden onset and severe abdominal pain with a high morbidity and mortality rate, if accompanied by severe local and systemic complications. Numerous studies have been published about the pathogenesis of AP; however, the precise mechanism behind this pathology remains unclear. Extensive research conducted over the last decades has demonstrated that the first 24 h after symptom onset are critical for the identification of patients who are at risk of developing complications or death. The identification of these subgroups of patients is crucial in order to start an aggressive approach to prevent mortality. In this sense and to avoid unnecessary overtreatment, thereby reducing the financial implications, the proper identification of mild disease is also important and necessary. A large number of multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers are described to predict the severity. Despite recent progress in understanding the pathophysiology of AP, more research is needed to enable a faster and more accurate prediction of severe AP. This review provides an overview of the available multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers for predicting severe AP with a special focus on their advantages and limitations.