Predictors of mortality in hospitalized adults with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Lactate dehydrogenase to albumin ratio and prognosis in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a global public health challenge and a major cause of death. The lactate dehydrogenase to albumin ratio (LAR) is a simple and practical indicator of disease prognosis, but its prognostic value in acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) remains unclear. Therefore, we aimed to explore the prognostic value of LAR for the short-term all-cause mortality risk in patients with AECOPD.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 654 patients with AECOPD from the MIMIC-IV database. LAR was analyzed after natural logarithm transformation and the patients were divided into three groups. The clinical outcome was the 1-month and 3-months all-cause mortality. The relationship between LAR and all-cause mortality was assessed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and a Cox regression model. Generalized additive models were employed to identify non-linear relationships, and a subgroup analysis was performed to determine the stability of the results.

RESULTS

The study showed that LAR levels significantly and positively correlated with short-term all-cause mortality in patients with AECOPD. Compared to the low LAR group, patients in the medium LAR group had a significantly increased 1-month all-cause mortality risk, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.74 (95% [Confidence Interval, CI] 1.16-2.63, P = 0.008). Patients in the high LAR group had an even higher 1-month all-cause mortality risk, with an HR of 2.58 (95% CI 1.75-3.80, P < 0.001). For 3-month all-cause mortality, patients in the medium LAR group had an HR of 1.54 (95% CI 1.10-2.16, P = 0.012), while those in the high LAR group had an HR of 2.18 (95% CI 1.58-3.01, P < 0.001). The results remained stable in all three adjusted models and in the subgroup analyses. The relationship between LAR and all-cause mortality due to AECOPD was non-linear, with inflection points at 8.13 and 6.05 for 1-month and 3-month all-cause mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated LAR is an independent predictive indicator of short-term all-cause mortality risk in patients with AECOPD and can be used to improve decision-making for the clinical management of these patients.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

Not applicable.

The Association of Conventional Therapy Associated with Somatosensory Interactive Game Enhances the Effects of Early Pulmonary Rehabilitation for Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of somatosensory interactive games in combination with pulmonary rehabilitation programs (PRPs) on exercise tolerance, balance function, pulmonary function, inflammatory markers, and healthcare utilization in individuals with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease over 12 months. Design: In a randomized controlled trial, 80 patients were divided into two groups. The control group participated in a lasted 30 minutes daily program composed of postural training for 10 minutes, limb movement for 10 minutes, and breathing exercises for 10 minutes based on regular oxygen therapy and medication. The experimental group received a once-daily, 20-minute somatosensory interactive game session based on the control group. Patients began treatment within 48 hours after admission and lasted for 6 weeks. Results: The time × group interactions on 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) and Brief Balance Evaluation Systems Test (Brief-BESTest) between the two groups were significant (P < 0.001). At the postintervention and each time point of follow-up, the 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) and Brief-BESTest of the intervention group were significantly higher than those of the control group (P < 0.05). The effects of time factor on forced expiratory volume in one second and forced vital capacity were statistically significant (P < 0.05). The 6MWD and Brief-BESTest of the intervention group peaked 3 months after the intervention and were higher than the control group within 12 months. C-reactive protein and procalcitonin were similar between the groups before and after intervention (P > 0.05). The readmission rates and mean length of time spent in the hospital were comparable between the groups at 12 months (P > 0.05). Conclusions: The addition of somatosensory interactive games based on a PRP was safe and feasible, and this benefit persisted for 12 months, peaked at 3 months after the intervention, and then gradually decreased.

Factors Influencing Mechanical Ventilation and Inpatient Palliative Care Utilization in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Purpose

Palliative care is underutilized for severely ill patients with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) experiencing significant symptoms during hospitalization. The impact of mechanical ventilation on inpatient palliative care utilization remains largely unexplored. In this study, we aimed to investigate inpatient palliative care utilization among hospitalized patients with COPD requiring mechanical ventilation and examine the associated risk factors and clinical outcomes.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective nested case-control study was conducted using population-based claims datasets from 2017 to 2021. It included 36,848 hospitalized patients with COPD aged 40 and above, of which 16,118 (43.74%) required mechanical ventilation. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between mechanical ventilation and inpatient palliative care utilization, adjusting for relevant covariates.

Results

Of the total cohort, 5,596 patients (15.19%) utilized inpatient palliative care, including 1,275 (7.91%) requiring mechanical ventilation. Age, duration of mechanical ventilation, comorbidity severity, and hospital type influenced inpatient palliative care use. Patients with a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 1-2 and ≥3 were 24.06 and 51.59 times more likely, respectively, to receive palliative care compared to those with a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 0. Ventilated patients in medical centers or regional hospitals were more likely to receive palliative care than those in district hospitals. Patients on mechanical ventilation who received care for 8-30 days were over twice as likely to receive palliative care compared to those who received care for shorter durations.

Conclusion

Inpatient palliative care for patients with COPD was limited and varied based on the duration of mechanical ventilation and hospital type. To enhance patient-centered care, interdisciplinary teams should integrate palliative care throughout the illness journey.

Resources and Readmission for COPD Exacerbation in Pneumology Units in Spain: The COPD Observatory Project

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) represents one of the most frequent causes of hospital readmissions and in-hospital mortality. One in five patients requires readmission within 30 days of discharge following an admission for exacerbation. These 'early readmissions' increase morbidity and mortality, as patients often do not recover their baseline lung function. The identification of factors associated with increased risk has been a major focus of research in recent years. Studies describe patient-related predictors, although some studies also suggest that better-resourced centres provide superior care. Objective: To describe resources, performance, and care provided in pneumology units in Spain, assessing their association with 30-day readmission for COPD and in-hospital mortality. Methods: This survey was conducted in 116 hospitals responsible for the COPD pathway in pneumology units/departments from November 2022 to March 2023. Results: Of the 116 participating hospitals, 56% had a pneumology department while 25.9% had a pneumology section. The vast majority were public and university hospitals. The number of beds allocated to pneumology/100,000 inhabitants was 6.6 (3.1-9.2) and pulmonologist staffing was 3.3 (2.6-4.1) per 100,000 inhabitants. There was an intermediate respiratory care unit (IMCU) dependent on the pneumology department in 31.9% of units and a respiratory team for 24 h emergency care in 30% of units, while only 9.5% had interventional pneumology units for bronchoscopic procedures. COPD rehabilitation programmes were offered in 58.6% of pneumology units. The average rate of patients on ventilatory support in acute failure was 13.8 (9.2-25) per 100 discharges, with a 30-day COPD readmission rate of 14.9%, with significant differences according to the level of complexity (p = 0.041), with a mean length of stay of 8.72 (1.26) days. The overall in-hospital mortality in pneumology units was 4.10 (1.18) per 100 admissions. In the adjusted model, having a discharge support programme and interventions performed during admission (number of patients with ventilatory support) were predictors of a favourable outcome. Hospital stay was also maintained as a predictor of an unfavourable outcome. Conclusions: There is significant variability in resources and the organisation of care in pneumology units in Spain. The availability of a discharge support programme and greater use of ventilatory support at discharge are factors associated with a lower 30-day COPD readmission rate in the pneumology unit. This information is relevant to improve the care of patients with COPD and as a future line of research.

Prognostic value of procalcitonin in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

To evaluate the prognostic role of procalcitonin(PCT) on all-cause mortality in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD).

METHODS

Database including PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched to find relevant trials. We included studies with patients hospitalized for AECOPD, which assessed procalcitonin levels and reported on the association between procalcitonin and mortality..

RESULTS

Fourteen trials involving 2983 patients were included. We found PCT levels in patients hospitalized for AECOPD are not associated with increased risk of mortality (RR 1.03, 95%CI 0.99-1.08). However, subgroup analysis showed PCT levels are indeed associated with an increased risk of mortality in mild to moderate AECOPD(RR 1.74, 95%CI 1.11-2.73). Deceased patients had significantly higher PCT levels, compared to survivors (MD 0.61, 95%CI 0.30-0.92). In PCT positive group, there was a significant increase in all-cause mortality(OR 3.21, 95%CI 1.84-5.61).

CONCLUSIONS

Results from this meta-analysis suggest that procalcitonin levels at the time of hospital admission for mild to moderate AECOPD are positively correlated with mortality.

Red Blood Cell Distribution Width/Hematocrit Ratio: A New Predictor of 28 Days All-Cause Mortality of AECOPD Patients in ICU

Purpose

Elevated red blood cell distribution width (RDW) and decreased hematocrit (HCT) levels are associated with poor prognosis in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients, but their significance in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) remains uncertain. The RDW/HCT ratio may offer a more comprehensive assessment compared to individual markers, potentially enhancing prognostic accuracy. Furthermore, the utility of RDW/HCT in improving traditional ICU scoring systems remains unexplored.

Patients and Methods

The optimal RDW/HCT ratio cutoff was identified via ROC curve analysis, guiding classification into high and low ratio groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and propensity score matching (PSM) were performed to evaluate the association between RDW/HCT ratio and 28-day all-cause mortality. The predictive value of RDW/HCT ratio compared to traditional ICU scoring systems was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC). Additionally, the eICU database was utilized to validate the robustness of the association between RDW/HCT and mortality in patients with AECOPD.

Results

624 patients were included, with 361 in the low RDW/HCT ratio group and 263 in the high ratio group. PSM yielded 145 matched pairs of patients with balanced baseline characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that patients with RDW/HCT ratio ≥ 0.473 had significantly higher 28-day all-cause mortality compared to those with RDW/HCT ratio < 0.473 (p < 0.001). Combining RDW/HCT ratio with SOFA score improved the diagnostic accuracy significantly (p=0.029).

Conclusion

The RDW/HCT ratio is an independent predictor of 28-day all-cause mortality in AECOPD patients in the ICU. It can be used for a preliminary assessment before a systematic evaluation of the patient, indicating its potential value in early assessment of disease severity. In a comprehensive evaluation, combining the RDW/HCT ratio with the SOFA score can further enhance predictive accuracy.

Impact of blood eosinophil count on clinical outcomes in hospitalized Syrian patients with COPD exacerbation

OBJECTIVE

In this multicenter retrospective study, we evaluated the prognostic role of blood eosinophil count on clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients with exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

METHODS

We included patients aged 20 to 90 years with a COPD diagnosis. Patients were divided into groups with blood eosinophil count ≤300 or >300 cells/μL and then further classified into 1-99, 100-300, or >300 cells/μL. We compared sociodemographic features and clinical outcomes between groups and identified risk factors associated with mortality in hospitalized patients with COPD and blood eosinophil count ≤300 cells/μL.

RESULTS

In total, 217 patients were included (82% men, average age 64.3±10.3 years). Patients with eosinophil counts ≤300 cells/μL had significantly longer hospital stays, more admissions to the intensive care unit (22.2% vs. 4.3%), and more frequent mechanical ventilation (21.6% vs. 4.3%) than those with eosinophil counts >300 cells/μL. Mortality only occurred in the group with ≤300 cells/μL; patients with COPD who had eosinophil counts >300 cells/μL had significantly better survival rates (17.0% vs. 0%).

CONCLUSION

High blood eosinophil counts at admission were associated with improved short-term outcomes. Our findings reveal the importance of considering eosinophil counts in clinical decision-making to manage hospitalized patients with COPD.

Association of systemic corticosteroid use with prognosis of patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the intensive care unit: a propensity score-matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

Systemic corticosteroid has been recommended for the treatment of severe acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). Little is known about the use of systemic corticosteroid in patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) since most of previous trials excluded these critically ill patients.

METHODS

We conducted a matched cohort study based on the Medical Information Mart in Intensive Care-IV database. Patients with AECOPD in ICUs were included. Patients in the exposure group should be intravenously administrated with methylprednisolone or treated with oral prednisone within 24 h after ICU admission. The propensity score matching and multivariable analyses were used to adjust for covariates. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, and secondary outcomes included ICU mortality, in-hospital mortality, the duration of ICU stay, and mechanical ventilation. Subgroup analyses for the primary outcome were performed according to age, sex, type of corticosteroid, type of ICU admission, type of mechanical ventilation, and co-morbidities/complications.

RESULTS

The entire cohort and the matched cohort included 763 and 412 patients, respectively. In the matched cohort, the use of systemic corticosteroid had no impact on 28-day mortality (OR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.61-1.64, P = 1.000). The results kept consistent in all subgroups. Additionally, systemic corticosteroid showed no benefits on ICU mortality, in-hospital mortality, the length of ICU stay, and the duration of mechanical ventilation.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study do not support routine use of systemic corticosteroid in patients with AECOPD admitted to ICUs.

Contribution of Anemia to Multidimensional Indices for Predicting Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)

BACKGROUND

Severe exacerbations are a significant predictor of poor prognosis and mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Multidimensional indices, such as the BODE (BMI, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) and ADO indices (age, dyspnea severity, and airflow obstruction), outperform single-variable assessments in predicting survival. However, anemia, a strong predictor of mortality in both the general population and COPD patients, has not been included in the prediction indices. This study aimed to evaluate whether including anemia as a variable enhances the predictive accuracy of these indices for both short-term and long-term mortality in COPD patients.

METHODS

Data from patients who were consecutively admitted for acute exacerbation of COPD were recorded with a minimum follow-up of three years. Patients were divided into two groups: anemic (Hb <12 g/dL in women and Hb <13 g/dL in men) or non-anemic. Modified versions of the BODEx (BMI, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exacerbation) and ADO indices that included anemia, termed BODEx-A3 and ADO-A3, were created by adding three points to the original values.

RESULTS

A total of 141 patients were included. Twenty-one (15%) died during the first year after admission, and 48 (34%) died during the three-year follow-up period. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting one-year mortality was slightly higher with the BODEx-A3 compared to the BODEx (0.83 vs. 0.78) and with the ADO-A3 compared to the ADO (0.81 vs. 0.78). For three-year mortality, the predictive power of the BODEx-A3 (AUC 0.77 vs. 0.67 for BODEx, p<0.001) and ADO-A3 indices (AUC 0.82 vs. 0.77 for ADO, p=0.038) was significantly greater compared to their original versions.

CONCLUSION

We have defined novel multidimensional indices (BODEx-A3 and ADO-A3) for predicting short- and long-term mortality in patients hospitalized with COPD exacerbation. These indices were derived by adding three points to the standard BODEx and ADO scores in anemic patients. Our findings demonstrate that incorporating anemia into the best existing COPD mortality predictor indices significantly improves their predictive capacity.

The PROgnostic ModEl for chronic lung disease (PRO-MEL): development and temporal validation

BACKGROUND

Patients with chronic lung diseases (CLDs), defined as progressive and life-limiting respiratory conditions, experience a heavy symptom burden as the conditions become more advanced, but palliative referral rates are low and late. Prognostic tools can help clinicians identify CLD patients at high risk of deterioration for needs assessments and referral to palliative care. As current prognostic tools may not generalize well across all CLD conditions, we aim to develop and validate a general model to predict one-year mortality in patients presenting with any CLD.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of patients with a CLD diagnosis at a public hospital from July 2016 to October 2017 was conducted. The outcome of interest was all-cause mortality within one-year of diagnosis. Potential prognostic factors were identified from reviews of prognostic studies in CLD, and data was extracted from electronic medical records. Missing data was imputed using multiple imputation by chained equations. Logistic regression models were developed using variable selection methods and validated in patients seen from January 2018 to December 2019. Discriminative ability, calibration and clinical usefulness of the model was assessed. Model coefficients and performance were pooled across all imputed datasets and reported.

RESULTS

Of the 1000 patients, 122 (12.2%) died within one year. Patients had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or emphysema (55%), bronchiectasis (38%), interstitial lung diseases (12%), or multiple diagnoses (6%). The model selected through forward stepwise variable selection had the highest AUC (0.77 (0.72-0.82)) and consisted of ten prognostic factors. The model AUC for the validation cohort was 0.75 (0.70, 0.81), and the calibration intercept and slope were - 0.14 (-0.54, 0.26) and 0.74 (0.53, 0.95) respectively. Classifying patients with a predicted risk of death exceeding 0.30 as high risk, the model would correctly identify 3 out 10 decedents and 9 of 10 survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a prognostic model for one-year mortality in patients with CLD using routinely available administrative data. The model will support clinicians in identifying patients across various CLD etiologies who are at risk of deterioration for a basic palliative care assessment to identify unmet needs and trigger an early referral to palliative medicine.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not applicable (retrospective study).

One-year mortality and readmission risks following hospitalization for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease based on the types of acute respiratory failure: An observational study

Few studies have examined the risk factors associated with the type of acute respiratory failure (ARF) in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This study evaluated the clinical characteristics and prognosis of patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of COPD based on the type of ARF. The medical charts of hospitalized patients with acute exacerbation of COPD between 2016 and 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. We classified ARF into 2 types: type 1 ARF with PaO2 < 60 mm Hg in room air or a ratio of arterial partial pressure to fractional inspired oxygen < 300, and type 2 ARF with PaCO2 > 45 mm Hg and arterial pH < 7.35. A total of 435 patients were enrolled in study, including 170 participants without ARF, 165 with type 1 ARF, and 100 with type 2 ARF. Compared with the non-ARF group, the frequency of high-flow nasal cannula, noninvasive ventilation, intensive care unit admissions, and in-hospital deaths was higher in the ARF group compared with the non-ARF group. The ARF group had higher 1-year mortality group (hazard ratio [HR], 2.809; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.099-7.180; P = .031) and readmission within 1-year rates (HR, 1.561; 95% CI, 1.061-2.295; P = .024) than the non-ARF group. The type 1 ARF group had a higher risk of 1-year mortality (HR, 3.022; 95% CI, 1.041-8.774; P = .042) and hospital readmission within 1-year (HR, 2.053; 95% CI, 1.230-3.428; P = .006) compared with the non-ARF group. There was no difference in mortality and readmission rates between the type 1 and type 2 ARF groups. In conclusion, patients with type 1 ARF rather than type 2 ARF had higher mortality and readmission rates than those without ARF. The prognoses of patients with type 1 and type 2 ARF were similar.

Factors associated with risk of death in hospitalized patients for exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: an updated scoping review

INTRODUCTION

The Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (ECOPD), especially if leading to hospitalization, increases the risk of death. Our scoping review aims to identify updated mortality risk factors for both short- and long-term periods.

AREAS COVERED

A comprehensive search, covering the period from January 2013 to February 2024, was performed to identify eligible studies that consider factors associated with death in hospitalized ECOPD. We considered short-term mortality, up to one year (including in-hospital mortality, IHM) and long-term mortality over one year, without time limits. We excluded studies concerning the intensive care area.

EXPERT OPINION

We considered 38 studies, 32 and 8 reporting data about short- and long-term mortality, respectively. Two studies consider both periods. Several factors, some already known, others newly identified, have been evaluated and discussed. Some of these were related to the characteristics and severity of COPD (age, body mass index, lung impairment), and some considered the response to ECOPD. In this last context, we focused on the increasing role of biomarkers in predicting the mortality of patients, particularly IHM. Our factors associated with a worse prognosis may be helpful in clinical practice to identify patients at risk and, subsequently, determine a personalized approach.

Effects of a lower versus a higher oxygenation target in intensive care unit patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure: a subgroup analysis of a randomised clinical trial

Background

Oxygen supplementation is ubiquitous in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and acute hypoxaemia, but the optimal oxygenation target has not been established.

Methods

This was a pre-planned subgroup analysis of the Handling Oxygenation Targets in the ICU (HOT-ICU) trial, which allocated patients with acute hypoxaemia to a lower oxygenation target (partial pressure of arterial oxygen [Pao2] of 8 kPa) vs a higher target (Pao2 of 12 kPa) during ICU admission, for up to 90 days; the allocation was stratified for presence or absence of COPD. Here, we report key outcomes for patients with COPD.

Results

The HOT-ICU trial enrolled 2928 patients of whom 563 had COPD; 277 were allocated to the lower and 286 to the higher oxygenation group. After allocation, the median Pao2 was 9.1 kPa (inter-quartile range 8.7-9.9) in the lower group vs 12.1 kPa (11.2-12.9) in the higher group. Data for arterial carbon dioxide (Paco2) were available for 497 patients (88%) with no between-group difference in time-weighted average; median Paco2 6.0 kPa (5.2-7.2) in the lower group vs 6.2 kPa (5.4-7.3) in the higher group. At 90 days, 122/277 patients (44%) in the lower oxygenation group had died vs 132/285 patients (46%) in the higher (relative risk 0.98; 95% confidence interval 0.82-1.17; P=0.67). No statistically significant differences were found in any secondary outcome.

Conclusions

In ICU patients with COPD and acute hypoxaemia, a lower vs a higher oxygenation target did not reduce mortality. There were no between-group differences in Paco2 or in secondary outcomes.

Clinical trial registration

NCT03174002, EudraCT number 2017-000632-34.

Post-discharge mortality among patients hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection, Bangladesh, 2012-2019: a prospective observational study

Background

Enhancing outcomes post-hospitalisation requires an understanding of predictive factors for adverse events. This study aimed to estimate post-discharge mortality rates among patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Bangladesh, identify associated factors, and document reported causes of death.

Methods

From January 2012 to December 2019, we conducted follow-up calls to patients or their families 30 days after discharge to assess the status of patients with SARI. Proportions of deaths within 30 days of discharge were estimated, and a comparative analysis of demographics, clinical characteristics, and influenza illness between decedents and survivors was performed using multivariable Cox regression models.

Findings

Among 23,360 patients with SARI (median age: 20 years, IQR: 1.5-48, 65% male), 351 (1.5%) died during hospitalisation. Of 23,009 patients alive at discharge, 20,044 (87%) were followed, with 633 (3.2%) deaths within 30 days of discharge. In children (<18 years), difficulty breathing (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-3.0), longer hospital stay (aHR 1.1; 95% CI 1.1-1.1), and heart diseases (aHR 8.5; 95% CI 3.2-23.1) were associated with higher post-discharge death risk. Among adults (≥18 years), difficulty breathing (aHR 2.3; 95% CI 1.7-3.0), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR 1.7; 95% CI 1.4-2.2), and intensive care unit admission (aHR 5.2; 95% CI 1.9-14.0) were linked to elevated post-discharge death risk. Influenza virus was detected in 13% (46/351) of in-hospital SARI deaths and 10% (65/633) of post-discharge SARI deaths.

Interpretation

Nearly one in twenty patients with SARI died during hospitalisation or within 1 month of discharge, with two-thirds of deaths occurring post-discharge. Seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended to mitigate influenza-associated mortality. To enhance post-discharge outcomes, hospitals should consider developing safe-discharge algorithms, reinforcing post-discharge care plans, and establishing outpatient monitoring for recently discharged patients.

Funding

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, USA [U01GH002259].

Relationship Between Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index and Risk of Respiratory Failure and Death in COPD: A Retrospective Cohort Study Based on the MIMIC-IV Database

Purpose

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) concurrent with respiratory failure (RF) is devastating, and may result in death and disability. Systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) is a new prognostic biomarker linked to unfavorable outcomes of acute coronary syndrome, ischemic stroke, and heart failure. Nonetheless, its role in COPD is rarely investigated. Consequently, this study intends to assess the accuracy of SII in predicting the prognosis of COPD.

Patients and Methods

The clinical information was retrospectively acquired from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV database. The outcomes encompassed the incidence of RF and mortality. The relationship between different SII and outcomes was examined utilizing the Cox proportional-hazards model and restricted cubic splines. Kaplan-Meier analysis was employed for all-cause mortality.

Results

The present study incorporated 1653 patients. During hospitalization, 697 patients (42.2%) developed RF, and 169 patients (10.2%) died. And 637 patients (38.5%) died during long-term follow-up. Higher SII increased the risk of RF (RF: HR: 1.19, 95% CI 1.12-1.28, P<0.001), in-hospital mortality (HR: 1.22, 95% CI 1.07-1.39, P=0.003), and long-term follow-up mortality (HR: 1.12, 95% CI 1.05-1.19, P<0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis suggested a significantly elevated risk of all-cause death (log-rank P<0.001) in patients with higher SII, especially during the short-term follow-up period of 21 days.

Conclusion

SII is closely linked to an elevated risk of RF and death in COPD patients. It appears to be a potential predictor of the prognosis of COPD patients, which is helpful for the risk stratification of this population. However, more prospective studies are warranted to consolidate our conclusion.

Global mortality and readmission rates following COPD exacerbation-related hospitalisation: a meta-analysis of 65 945 individual patients

BACKGROUND

Exacerbations of COPD (ECOPD) have a major impact on patients and healthcare systems across the world. Precise estimates of the global burden of ECOPD on mortality and hospital readmission are needed to inform policy makers and aid preventive strategies to mitigate this burden. The aims of the present study were to explore global in-hospital mortality, post-discharge mortality and hospital readmission rates after ECOPD-related hospitalisation using an individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA) design.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed identifying studies that reported in-hospital mortality, post-discharge mortality and hospital readmission rates following ECOPD-related hospitalisation. Data analyses were conducted using a one-stage random-effects meta-analysis model. This study was conducted and reported in accordance with the PRISMA-IPD statement.

RESULTS

Data of 65 945 individual patients with COPD were analysed. The pooled in-hospital mortality rate was 6.2%, pooled 30-, 90- and 365-day post-discharge mortality rates were 1.8%, 5.5% and 10.9%, respectively, and pooled 30-, 90- and 365-day hospital readmission rates were 7.1%, 12.6% and 32.1%, respectively, with noticeable variability between studies and countries. Strongest predictors of mortality and hospital readmission included noninvasive mechanical ventilation and a history of two or more ECOPD-related hospitalisations <12 months prior to the index event.

CONCLUSIONS

This IPDMA stresses the poor outcomes and high heterogeneity of ECOPD-related hospitalisation across the world. Whilst global standardisation of the management and follow-up of ECOPD-related hospitalisation should be at the heart of future implementation research, policy makers should focus on reimbursing evidence-based therapies that decrease (recurrent) ECOPD.

ERS International Congress 2023: highlights from the Paediatrics Assembly

Respiratory health in children is essential for general wellbeing and healthy development in the short and long term. It is well known that many respiratory diseases in adulthood have their origins in early life, and therefore research on prevention of respiratory diseases and management of children with respiratory diseases will benefit patients during the full life course. Scientific and clinical advances in the field of respiratory health are moving at a fast pace. This article summarises some of the highlights in paediatric respiratory medicine presented at the hybrid European Respiratory Society (ERS) International Congress 2023 which took place in Milan (Italy). Selected sessions are summarised by Early Career Members of the Paediatrics Assembly (Assembly 7) under the supervision of senior ERS officers, and cover a wide range of research areas in children, including respiratory physiology and sleep, asthma and allergy, cystic fibrosis, respiratory infection and immunology, neonatology and intensive care, respiratory epidemiology and bronchology.

Risk factors of in-hospital mortality and discriminating capacity of NIVO score in exacerbations of COPD requiring noninvasive ventilation

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV) is recommended as the initial mode of ventilation to treat acute respiratory failure in patients with AECOPD. The Noninvasive Ventilation Outcomes (NIVO) score has been proposed to evaluate the prognosis in patients with AECOPD requiring assisted NIV. However, it is not validated in Chinese patients.

METHODS

We used data from the MAGNET AECOPD Registry study, which is a prospective, noninterventional, multicenter, real-world study conducted between September 2017 and July 2021 in China. Data for the potential risk factors of mortality were collected and the NIVO score was calculated, and the in-hospital mortality was evaluated using the NIVO risk score.

RESULTS

A total of 1164 patients were included in the study, and 57 patients (4.9%) died during their hospital stay. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that age ≥75 years, DBP <60 mmHg, Glasgow Coma Scale ≤14, anemia and BUN >7 mmol/L were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The in-hospital mortality was associated with an increase in the risk level of NIVO score and the difference was statistically significant (p < .001). The NIVO risk score showed an acceptable accuracy for predicting the in-hospital mortality in AECOPD requiring assisted NIV (AUC: 0.657, 95% CI: 0.584-0.729, p < .001).

CONCLUSION

Our findings identified predictors of mortality in patients with AECOPD receiving NIV, providing useful information to identify severe patients and guide the management of AECOPD. The NIVO score showed an acceptable predictive value for AECOPD receiving NIV in Chinese patients, and additional studies are needed to develop and validate predictive scores based on specific populations.

Visual Ordinal Coronary Artery Calcium Score from Non-Gated Chest CT Predicts Mortality After Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation

Purpose

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients often undergo chest CT for various indications. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) can be quantified visually on ungated chest CT using an ordinal score that has been shown to correlate well with traditional Agatston CAC scoring. The prognostic role of CAC was studied mainly in stable COPD patients. We aim to study the association between ordinal CAC and mortality amongst patients admitted for acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD).

Patients and Methods

Retrospective study of AECOPD cases with no previous coronary revascularization admitted between 1st January 2016 to 30th June 2017 with a chest CT performed during admission or within 365 days prior. Ordinal CAC scoring (scale of 0-12) was performed by an experienced CT cardiologist blinded to patient data and outcomes. Patient demographics and future clinical events were retrieved from electronic medical records.

Results

There were 93 patients included (87.1% male, mean age 75 years) with the majority (59.1%) in GOLD Stage III. There were 21 (22.6%) patients with no CAC as well as 39 (41.9%) and 33 (35.5%) with ordinal CAC of 1-3 and 4-12, respectively. There were no significant differences in Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the proportion of patients with traditional cardiovascular risk factors (namely hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes and smoking status) between the ordinal CAC score groups. Over a median follow-up period of 2.9 (1.1-3.9) years, there were 51 (54.8%) deaths. An ordinal CAC score of 4-12 was the only significant predictor of mortality after multivariate Cox-regression analysis adjustment for age, gender, body mass index, prior exacerbations, FEV1, cardiovascular risk factors and CCI [HR 3.944, (95% confidence interval 1.647-9.433, p = 0.002)].

Conclusion

Ordinal CAC measured from a current or recent ungated chest CT is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in admitted AECOPD patients with no previous coronary revascularization.

Association Between Rome Classification Among Hospitalized Patients With COPD Exacerbations and Short-Term and Intermediate-Term Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Recently, the Rome proposal updated the definition of exacerbation of COPD (ECOPD). However, such severity grade has not yet demonstrated intermediate-term clinical relevance.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What is the association between the Rome severity classification and short-term and intermediate-term clinical outcomes?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We retrospectively grouped hospitalized patients with ECOPD according to the Rome severity classification (ie, mild, moderate, severe). Baseline, clinical, microbiologic, gas analysis, and laboratory variables were collected. In addition, data about the length of hospital stay and mortality (in-hospital and a follow-up time line from 6 months until 3 years) were assessed.

RESULTS

Of the 347 hospitalized patients, 39% were categorized as mild, 31% were categorized as moderate, and 30% were categorized as severe. Overall, patients with severe ECOPD had an extended length of hospital stay. Although in-hospital mortality was similar among groups, patients with severe ECOPD presented a worse prognosis in all follow-up time points. The Kaplan-Meier curves show the role of the severe classification in the cumulative survival at 1 and 3 years (Gehan-Breslow-Wilcoxon test, P = .032 and P = .004, respectively). The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed a higher risk of death at 1 year when patients presented a severe (hazard ratio, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.49-2.65) or moderate grade (hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.10-1.97) compared with a mild grade. Older patients (aged ≥ 80 years), patients requiring long-term oxygen therapy, or patients reporting previous ECOPD episodes had a higher mortality risk. A BMI between 25 and 29 kg/m2 was associated with a lower risk.

INTERPRETATION

The Rome classification makes it possible to discriminate patients with a worse prognosis (severe or moderate) until a 3-year follow-up.

Frailty and its influence on mortality and morbidity in COPD: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Frailty increases vulnerability to adverse outcomes. Long-term conditions increase the risk of frailty. We searched PubMed, Web of Science, The Cochrane Library, EMBASE from inception to March 2022. Quality assessment was conducted using the NOS. Data was analysed in a pooled a random-effects meta-analysis. Our primary outcome was the impact of frailty on mortality in adults with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) diagnosis according to the guidelines. Secondary outcomes were: frailty and association with readmissions, hospitalisations, exacerbation rates, and prevalence of frailty in COPD. We identified 25 studies, with 5882 participants. The median prevalence of frailty was 47% (IQR, 39.3-66.3%, range 6.4-72%). There was an association between COPD patients living with frailty and increased risk of mortality versus COPD patients without frailty (pooled OR, 4.21 (95% CI 2.99-5.93, I2 55%). A descriptive analysis of relationship between frailty and hospital readmission and all cause hospitalization showed positive associations. The relationship between frailty and the risk of exacerbation showed a pooled OR, 1.45 (95% CI 0.37-5.70, I2 80%). Frailty is significantly associated with higher mortality risk in COPD. Frailty is common in patients with COPD and its measurement should be considered in clinical practice to better characterise COPD.

Blood Gene Expression and Immune Cell Subtypes Associated with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations

Rationale: Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AE-COPDs) are associated with a significant disease burden. Blood immune phenotyping may improve our understanding of a COPD endotype at increased risk of exacerbations. Objective: To determine the relationship between the transcriptome of circulating leukocytes and COPD exacerbations. Methods: Blood RNA sequencing data (n = 3,618) from the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) study were analyzed. Blood microarray data (n = 646) from the ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) study were used for validation. We tested the association between blood gene expression and AE-COPDs. We imputed the abundance of leukocyte subtypes and tested their association with prospective AE-COPDs. Flow cytometry was performed on blood in SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcomes in COPD Study) (n = 127), and activation markers for T cells were tested for association with prospective AE-COPDs. Measurements and Main Results: Exacerbations were reported 4,030 and 2,368 times during follow-up in COPDGene (5.3 ± 1.7 yr) and ECLIPSE (3 yr), respectively. We identified 890, 675, and 3,217 genes associated with a history of AE-COPDs, persistent exacerbations (at least one exacerbation per year), and prospective exacerbation rate, respectively. In COPDGene, the number of prospective exacerbations in patients with COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage ⩾2) was negatively associated with circulating CD8+ T cells, CD4+ T cells, and resting natural killer cells. The negative association with naive CD4+ T cells was replicated in ECLIPSE. In the flow-cytometry study, an increase in CTLA4 on CD4+ T cells was positively associated with AE-COPDs. Conclusions: Individuals with COPD with lower circulating lymphocyte counts, particularly decreased CD4+ T cells, are more susceptible to AE-COPDs, including persistent exacerbations.

In-hospital antibiotic use for severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

The use of antibiotics in mild to severe acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains controversial.

AIM

To explore in-hospital antibiotic use in severe acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD), to analyze determinants of in-hospital antibiotic use, and to investigate its association with hospital length of stay (LOS) and in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective, observational study was conducted in Ghent University Hospital. Severe AECOPD were defined as hospitalizations for AECOPD (ICD-10 J44.0 and J44.1) discharged between 2016 and 2021. Patients with a concomitant diagnosis of pneumonia or 'pure' asthma were excluded. An alluvial plot was used to describe antibiotic treatment patterns. Logistic regression analyses identified determinants of in-hospital antibiotic use. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to compare time to discharge alive and time to in-hospital death between antibiotic-treated and non-antibiotic-treated AECOPD patients.

RESULTS

In total, 431 AECOPD patients (mean age 70 years, 63% males) were included. More than two-thirds (68%) of patients were treated with antibiotics, mainly amoxicillin-clavulanic acid. In multivariable analysis, several patient-related variables (age, body mass index (BMI), cancer), treatment-related variables (maintenance azithromycin, theophylline), clinical variables (sputum volume and body temperature) and laboratory results (C-reactive protein (CRP) levels) were associated with in-hospital antibiotic use independent of sputum purulence, neutrophil counts, inhaled corticosteroids and intensive care unit of which CRP level was the strongest determinant. The median hospital LOS was significantly longer in antibiotic-treated patients (6 days [4-10]) compared to non-antibiotic-treated patients (4 days [2-7]) (p < 0.001, Log rank test). This was indicated by a reduced probability of hospital discharge even after adjustment for age, sputum purulence, BMI, in-hospital systemic corticosteroid use and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁) (adjusted hazard ratio 0.60; 95% CI 0.43; 0.84). In-hospital antibiotic use was not significantly associated with in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In this observational study in a Belgian tertiary hospital, in-hospital antibiotic use among patients with severe AECOPD was determined by the symptom severity of the exacerbation and the underlying COPD severity as recommended by the guidelines, but also by patient-related variables. Moreover, in-hospital antibiotic use was associated with a longer hospital stay, which may be linked to their disease severity, slower response to treatment or 'harm' due to antibiotics.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Number: B670201939030; date of registration: March 5, 2019.

High-Flow Nasal Cannula versus Noninvasive Ventilation in AECOPD Patients with Respiratory Acidosis: A Retrospective Propensity Score-Matched Study

BACKGROUND

Limited data are available about the clinical outcomes of AECOPD patients with respiratory acidosis treated with HFNC versus NIV.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study to compare the efficacy of HFNC with NIV as initial ventilation support strategy in AECOPD patients with respiratory acidosis. Propensity score matching (PSM) was implemented to increase between-group comparability. Kaplan-Meier analysis was utilized to evaluate differences between the HFNC success, HFNC failure, and NIV groups. Univariate analysis was performed to identify the features that differed significantly between the HFNC success and HFNC failure groups.

RESULTS

After screening 2219 hospitalization records, 44 patients from the HFNC group and 44 from the NIV group were successfully matched after PSM. The 30-day mortality (4.5% versus 6.8%, p = 0.645) and 90-day mortality (4.5% versus 11.4%, p = 0.237) did not differ between the HFNC and NIV groups. Length of ICU stay (median: 11 versus 18 days, p = 0.001), length of hospital stay (median: 14 versus 20 days, p = 0.001), and hospital cost (median: 4392 versus 8403 $USD, p = 0.001) were significantly lower in the HFNC group compared with NIV group. The treatment failure rate was much higher in the HFNC group than in the NIV group (38.6% versus 11.4%, p = 0.003). However, patients who experienced HFNC failure and switched to NIV showed similar clinical outcomes to those who first received NIV. Univariate analysis showed that log NT-proBNP was an important factor for HFNC failure (p = 0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with NIV, HFNC followed by NIV as rescue therapy may be a viable initial ventilation support strategy for AECOPD patients with respiratory acidosis. NT-proBNP may be an important factor for HFNC failure in these patients. Further well-designed randomized controlled trials are needed for more accurate and reliable results.

Supplemental oxygen and noninvasive ventilation

The respiratory system attempts to maintain normal levels of oxygen and carbon dioxide. However, airflow limitation, parenchymal abnormalities and dysfunction of the respiratory pump may be compromised in individuals with advanced COPD, eventually leading to respiratory failure, with reduced arterial oxygen tension (hypoxaemia) and/or increased arterial carbon dioxide tension (P aCO2 ; hypercapnia). Hypoxaemia may persist in individuals with severe COPD despite smoking cessation and optimisation of pharmacotherapy. Long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT) can improve survival in those with severe daytime hypoxaemia, whereas those with less severe hypoxaemia may only have improved exercise capacity and dyspnoea. Changes in respiratory physiology that occur during sleep further predispose to hypoxaemia, particularly in individuals with COPD. However, the major cause of hypoxaemia is hypoventilation. Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) may reduce mortality and need for intubation in individuals with COPD and acute hypercapnic respiratory failure. However, NIV may also improve survival and quality of life in individuals with stable, chronic hypercapnia and is now suggested for those with prolonged hypercapnia (e.g. P aCO2 >55 mmHg 2-6 weeks after hospital discharge) when clinically stable and after optimisation of medical therapy including LTOT if indicated. Many questions remain about the optimal mode, settings and goal of NIV therapy.

A Meta-Analysis on Predictors of Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for Acute Exacerbation of Asthma

The aim of this meta-analysis is to systematically review published studies and identify clinically important factors predicting mortality among patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of asthma. This study was a meta-analysis conducted in accordance with the MOOSE (Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) guidelines. A systematic search was carried out on online databases such as PubMed and EMBASE to identify articles on predictors of mortality among patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of asthma. The search used keywords such as "asthma," "exacerbation," "mortality," and "factors." A total of six articles met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. The incidence of short-term mortality among patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of asthma was 6% (95% CI= 3-9%, I-square=99%) with a range of 0.79% to 18% across the studies. The factors significantly associated with short-term mortality in patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of asthma including diabetes mellitus (RR=2.02, 95% CI: 1.63-2.52, p-value=0.001), pneumonia (RR=3.71, 95% CI: 3.02-4.56, p-value=0.001), and mechanical ventilation (RR: 29.98, 95% CI: 15.46-58.15, p-value=0.001). The present study found that diabetes mellitus, pneumonia, and the use of mechanical ventilation are independently associated with mortality among patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of asthma. Healthcare professionals need to understand the comorbidities and risk factors associated with mortality in patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of asthma in order to identify patients who are at increased risk and provide prompt treatment.

The Role of Early Warning Scoring Systems NEWS and MEWS in the Acute Exacerbation of COPD

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are the most devastating events in the course of the disease. Our aim was to investigate the value of early warning scoring systems: National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) in AECOPD. This is a prospective observational study of patients with AECOPD who were admitted at hospital. The NEWS and MEWS scores were registered at admission (NEWS-d1, MEWS-d1) and on the second day (NEWS-d2, MEWS-d2). A nasopharyngeal and sputum sample was taken for culture. Follow-up was done at 3 and 6 months after hospitalization. Any possible correlations between NEWS and MEWS and other parameters of COPD were explored. A cohort of 64 patients were included. In-hospital mortality was 4.7% while total mortality at 6 months was 26%. We did not find any significant correlation between in-hospital mortality and any of the scores but we could show a higher mortality and more frequent AECOPD at 6 months of follow-up for those with higher NEWS-d2. NEWS-d2 was associated with higher pCO₂ at presentation and a more frequent use of NIV. Higher NEWS-d1 and NEWS-d2 were predictive of a longer hospital stay. The presence of pathogens in the nasopharyngeal sample was related with a higher reduction of both scores on the second day. We therefore support the superiority of NEWS in the evaluation of hospitalized patients with AECOPD. A remaining high NEWS at the second day of hospital stay signals a high risk of hypercapnia and need of NIV but also higher mortality and more frequent exacerbations at 6 months after AECOPD.

All-cause admissions following a first ever exacerbation-related hospitalisation in COPD

Background

Hospital admissions are important contributors to the overall burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Understanding the patterns and causes of hospital admissions will help to identify targets for preventive interventions. This study aimed to determine the 5-year all-cause hospital admission trajectories of patients with COPD following their first ever exacerbation-related hospitalisation.

Methods

Patients with COPD were identified from the Danish national registries. Patients experiencing their first ever exacerbation-related hospitalisation, defined as the index event, between 2000 and 2014 were included. All-cause hospital admissions were examined during a subsequent 5-year follow-up period, and categorised using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision.

Results

In total, 82 964 patients with COPD were included. The mean±sd age was 72±10 years and 48% were male. Comorbidities were present in 58%, and 65% of the patients collected inhalation medication ≤6 months prior to the index event. In total, 337 066 all-cause hospital admissions were identified, resulting in a 5-year admission rate of 82%. Most admissions were due to nonrespiratory causes (59%), amongst which cardiac events were most common (19%).

Conclusion

Hospital admissions following a first exacerbation-related hospitalisation are common; nonrespiratory events constitute the majority of admissions. Besides the respiratory causes, treatment targeting the nonrespiratory causes of hospital admission should be considered to effectively decrease the burden of hospitalisation in COPD.

Azithromycin use prior to ICU admission is associated with a lower short-term mortality for critically ill acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients: A retrospective cohort study

Azithromycin was thought to prevent acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPDs) by anti-microbial and anti-inflammatory effects. However, it's value in the treatment of critically ill patients with AECOPD before ICU admission remains unclear. Our study aimed to find whether azithromycin use prior to ICU admission leads to better clinical outcomes for those individuals. 533 critically ill patients with AECOPD from the MIMIC-IV database were included. Univariate followed multivariate logistic regression was used to select risk factors for short-term mortality. The multivariable logistic regression models were implemented to investigate the association between azithromycin use before ICU admission and short-term mortality. Lower short-term mortality was observed in the azithromycin group (p = .021), independent of differences in demographic data and other clinical outcomes (p>.05). Azithromycin use before ICU admission was proved to have a decreased short-term mortality by multivariable logistic regression (p<.05). The results remained consistent after being stratified by age, SOFA scores, pH, and cancer diagnosis. Azithromycin use prior to ICU admission was associated with lower short-term mortality for critically ill AECOPD patients.

Blood Urea Nitrogen Is Associated with In-Hospital Mortality in Critically Ill Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Background: Elevated blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level is associated with a higher risk of mortality in various diseases; however, the association between BUN level and in-hospital mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) is not known. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between BUN level and in-hospital mortality in patients with AECOPD admitted to the ICU. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, AECOPD patients were identified from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database. Multivariate regression was used to elucidate the relationship between BUN level and in-hospital mortality, and propensity score matching (PSM) was used to adjust confounders. Receiver operating characteristics and Kaplan−Meier curves were used to evaluate the relationship between BUN level and in-hospital mortality. Results: Data from 1201 patients were analyzed. The all-cause in-hospital mortality was 13.7%. BUN levels were significantly higher in non-survivors compared to the survival group before (p < 0.001) and after (p = 0.005) PSM. Multivariate analysis indicated that elevated BUN levels were independently associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality both before (p = 0.002) and after (p = 0.015) PSM. The optimal BUN cut-off value for in-hospital mortality in critical patients with AECOPD before (>23 mg/dL) and after (>22 mg/dL) PSM was comparable. Compared with the low BUN group, the hazard ratio (HR) of the high BUN group was 1.8987 (before PSM) and 1.7358 (after PSM). Conclusions: Higher BUN levels were significantly associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with AECOPD. As a widely available and rapidly measured biomarker, BUN may be useful in the risk stratification of critically ill AECOPD patients. The results need to be verified in prospective studies.

Association between low body temperature on admission and in-hospital mortality according to body mass index categories of patients with sepsis

Hypothermia has been shown to be associated with a high mortality rate among patients with sepsis. However, the relationship between hypothermia and body mass index (BMI) with respect to mortality remains to be elucidated. We conducted this study to assess the association between hypothermia and survival outcomes of patients with sepsis according to BMI categories. This secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study enrolled 1184 patients (aged ≥ 16 years) with sepsis hospitalized in 59 intensive care units in Japan. Patients were divided into 3 BMI categories (<18.5 [low], 18.5-24.9 [normal], >24.9 [high] kg/m2) and 2 body temperature (36 °C and ≥ 36 °C) groups. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality rate. Associations between hypothermia and BMI categories with respect to in-hospital mortality were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Of the 1089 patients, 223, 612, and 254 had low, normal, and high BMI values, respectively. Patients with body temperature < 36 °C (hypothermia) had a higher in-hospital mortality rate than that had by those without hypothermia in the normal BMI group (25/63, 39.7% vs. 107/549, 19.5%); however, this was not true for patients in the low or high BMI groups. A significant interaction was observed between hypothermia and normal BMI for in-hospital mortality (odds ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-3.41; P value for interaction = .04); however, such an interaction was not found between hypothermia and low or high BMIs. Patients with sepsis and hypothermia in the normal BMI subgroup may have a higher mortality risk than that of those in the low or high BMI subgroups and, therefore, require more attention.

Early antibiotic therapy is associated with a lower probability of successful liberation from mechanical ventilation in patients with severe acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background

While antibiotic therapy is advocated to improve outcomes in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) whenever mechanical ventilation is required, the evidence relies on small studies carried out before the era of widespread antibiotic resistance. Furthermore, the impact of systematic antibiotic therapy on successful weaning from mechanical ventilation was never investigated accounting for the competitive risk of death. The aim of the study was to assess whether early antibiotic therapy (eABT) increases successful mechanical ventilation weaning probability as compared to no eABT, in patients with AECOPD without pneumoniae, using multivariate competitive risk regression.

Methods

Retrospective analysis of patients admitted in 2 intensive care units (ICU) from 2012 to 2020 for AECOPD without pneumonia and requiring mechanical ventilation. eABT was defined as any anti-bacterial chemotherapy introduced during the first 24 h after ICU admission. The primary outcomes were the adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) of the probability of being successfully weaned from mechanical ventilation (i.e. non-invasive and invasive ventilation) according to eABT status and accounting for the competitive risk of death.

Results

Three hundred and ninety-one patients were included, of whom 66% received eABT. eABT was associated with a lower probability of successful liberation from mechanical ventilation when accounting for the competing risk of death in multivariate analyses (SHR 0.71 [95% confidence interval, 0.57–0.89], p < 0.01), after adjustment with covariates of disease severity. This association was present in all subgroups except in patients under invasive mechanical ventilation on ICU day-1, in patients with ICU day-1 worst PaCO₂ > 74 torr (median value) and in patients with a documented bacterial bronchitis at ICU admission. Ventilator-free days at day 28, ICU-free days at day 28 and invasive mechanical ventilation-free days at day 28, were significantly lower in the eABT group, while there was no significant difference in mortality at day 28 between patients who received eABT and those who did not.

Conclusions

eABT was independently associated with a lower probability of being successfully weaned from mechanical ventilation, suggesting that the clinician decision to overrule systematic administration of eABT was not associated with a detectable harm in AECOPD ICU patients without pneumonia.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-022-01060-2.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram among patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in intensive care unit

Background

Acute exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (AECOPD) contributes significantly to mortality among patients with COPD in Intensive care unit (ICU). This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict 30-day mortality among AECOPD patients in ICU.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we extracted AECOPD patients from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. Multivariate logistic regression based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to establish the nomogram. Internal validation was performed by a bootstrap resampling approach with 1000 replications. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated by Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate its clinical application.

Results

A total of 494 patients were finally included in the study with a mean age of 70.8 years old. 417 (84.4%) patients were in the survivor group and 77 (15.6%) patients were in the non-survivor group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis based on AIC included age, pO₂, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), invasive mechanical ventilation and vasopressor use to construct the nomogram. The adjusted C-index was 0.745 (0.712, 0.778) with good calibration (HL test, P = 0.147). The Kaplan–Meier survival curves revealed a significantly lower survival probability in the high-risk group than that in the low-risk group (P < 0.001). DCA showed that nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusion

The nomogram developed in this study could help clinicians to stratify AECOPD patients and provide appropriate care in clinical setting.

Short-Term Oxygen Therapy Outcomes in COPD

Rationale

Short-term oxygen therapy (STOT) is often prescribed to allow patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) to be discharged safely from hospital following an acute illness. This practice is widely accepted without being based on evidence.

Purpose

Our objective was to describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients with COPD who received STOT.

Patients and Methods

The study was a secondary analysis of the INOX trial, a 4-year randomised trial of nocturnal oxygen in COPD. The trial indicated that nocturnal oxygen has no significant effect on survival or progression to LTOT, allowing our merging of patients who received nocturnal oxygen and those who received placebo into a single cohort to study the predictors and outcomes of STOT regardless of the treatment received during the trial.

Results

Among the 243 participants in the trial, 60 required STOT on at least one occasion during follow-up. Patients requiring STOT had more severe dyspnoea and lung function impairment, and lower PaO₂ at baseline than those who did not. STOT was associated with subsequent LTOT requirement (hazard ratio [HR]: 4.59; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.98–7.07) and mortality (HR: 1.93; 95% CI: 1.15–3.24). The association between STOT and mortality was confounded by age, disease severity and comorbidities. Periods of STOT of more than one month and/or repeated prescriptions of STOT increased the probability of progression to LTOT (OR: 5.07; 95% CI: 1.48–18.8).

Conclusion

Following an acute respiratory illness in COPD, persistent hypoxaemia requiring STOT is a marker of disease progression towards the requirement for LTOT.

A Comprehensive Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Association between the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and Adverse Outcomes in Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) predicts adverse outcomes in stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); however, its prognostic role in acute exacerbations (AECOPD) is less clear. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between the NLR on admission and adverse outcomes (mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, transfer to the intensive care unit, length of stay, pulmonary hypertension, or their combination) in AECOPD by searching PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus from inception to April 2022. Risk of bias and certainty of evidence were assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist and the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation, respectively. In 15 studies (n = 10,038 patients), the NLR was significantly associated with the risk of adverse outcomes (odds ratio = 1.054, 95% CI 1.016 to 1.093, p = 0.005; low certainty of evidence; standard mean difference = 0.82, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.06, p < 0.001; high certainty of evidence). Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve were 0.71 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.77), 0.73 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.80), and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.81), respectively. In our study, the NLR on admission was significantly associated with adverse outcomes in AECOPD patients, suggesting the potential utility of this biomarker for early risk stratification and management in this group.

Modified Glasgow Coma Scale and the Alert Verbal Painful Unresponsive Scale for Assessing the Level of Consciousness in Pediatric Critical Care Patients—A Comparative Study

Altered consciousness is a common problem encountered in the pediatric emergency department. Modified Glasgow coma scale (MGCS) has been widely used in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) for assessing the level of consciousness in children with various illnesses. To compare utility of alert verbal painful unresponsive (AVPU) scale and MGCS for assessing level of consciousness of critically ill patients admitted to PICU. A prospective observational study was conducted at Acharya Vinoba Bhave Rural Hospital in Maharashtra, India on children above the age of 30 days admitted to the PICU from September 2018 to August 2019, fulfilling the inclusion criteria, after obtaining informed consent from the parents. Level of consciousness of the enrolled patients was assessed using the AVPU scale and MGCS. One-way analysis of variance technique was used for data analysis. A total of 74 children were included in the study. A good correlation was observed between the two scales and mean MGCS score of 13.8 (13–15), 11.3 (11–12), 8.09 (7–9), and 3 corresponded to A, V, P, and U, respectively. AVPU scale was comparable to MGCS in assessing level of consciousness in children admitted to PICU. AVPU can be used for initial evaluation of level of consciousness in children presenting with altered consciousness. More detailed MGCS can be used to assess the improvement over time and to decide further treatment strategy.

Usefulness of Glucose to Lymphocyte Ratio to Predict in-Hospital Mortality in Patients with AECOPD Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between glucose to lymphocyte ratio (GLR) and the outcome of acute exacerbation chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). This study included 3573 patients from the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) and 926 AECOPD patients admitted to ICU from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database. The optimal cutoff value for GLR was 5.6. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that patients in lower GLR (< 5.6) group showed a better overall survival than patients in higher GLR (≥ 5.6) group in all sets. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that age, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, SpO2, albumin and GLR are independent predictors of poor overall survival in the training cohort and were incorporated into the nomogram for in-hospital mortality as independent factors. The nomogram exhibited excellent discrimination with C-indexes in training cohort, internal validation and external validation cohort were (0.801, 95%CI: 0.769-0.863), (0.805, 95%CI: 0.759-0.851) and (0.811, 95%CI: 0.772-0.850), respectively. The calibration plot indicated an adequate fit of the nomogram for predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality in all sets. Moreover, the ROC analyses demonstrated that the discrimination abilities of GLR were better than other blood-based inflammatory biomarkers. As an easily available biomarker, GLR can independently predict the in-hospital mortality in AECOPD patients admitted to ICU. The nomogram combining GLR with other significant indicators exhibited excellence predictive performance for in-hospital mortality.

Predictors of mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Better insight in patients’ prognosis can help physicians to timely initiate advance care planning (ACP) discussions with patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We aimed to identify predictors of mortality.

Methods

We systematically searched databases Embase, PubMed, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central in April 2020. Papers reporting on predictors or prognostic models for mortality at 3 months and up to 24 months were assessed on risk-of-bias. We performed a meta-analysis with a fixed or random-effects model, and evaluated the discriminative ability of multivariable prognostic models.

Results

We included 42 studies (49–418,251 patients); 18 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Significant predictors of mortality within 3–24 months in the random-effects model were: previous hospitalization for acute exacerbation (hazard ratio [HR] 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32–2.95), hospital readmission within 30 days (HR 5.01; 95% CI 2.16–11.63), cardiovascular comorbidity (HR 1.89; 95% CI 1.25–2.87), age (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.38–1.59), male sex (HR 1.68; 95% CI 1.38–1.59), and long-term oxygen therapy (HR 1.74; 95% CI 1.10–2.73). Nineteen previously developed multicomponent prognostic models, as examined in 11 studies, mostly had moderate discriminate ability.

Conclusion

Identified predictors of mortality may aid physicians in selecting COPD patients who may benefit from ACP. However, better discriminative ability of prognostic models or development of a new prognostic model is needed for further large-scale implementation.

Registration: PROSPERO (CRD42016038494), https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-022-01911-5.

Systolic Strain by Speckle-Tracking Echocardiography Is a Feasible and Sensitive Measure of Right Ventricular Dysfunction in Acute Respiratory Failure Patients on Mechanical Ventilation

Right ventricular (RV) dysfunction is common in acute respiratory failure and associated with worse outcomes, but it can be difficult to detect in the ICU setting. Speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) can identify early changes in RV systolic function and be quantified as systolic strain. We measured the feasibility of RV global longitudinal systolic strain (RV GLS) in respiratory failure patients and its association with clinical outcomes.

The prognostic factors of in-hospital death among patients with pneumonic COPD acute exacerbation

BACKGROUND

Pneumonic acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD-AE) is associated with worse outcomes compared with non-pneumonic COPD-AE. We aimed to explore prognostic factors among patients with pneumonic COPD-AE.

METHODS

This multicentered retrospective cohort study was conducted across five hospitals in Japan. Hospitalized patients ≥40 years of age with pneumonic COPD-AE who were administered systemic corticosteroids during hospitalization were included. Patients with other causes of respiratory failure, daily systemic steroid users, and patients who were not treated with systemic steroids were excluded. Based on existing clinical prediction models, the following potential prognostic factors were selected in advance: age, blood eosinophil count, blood urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, diastolic blood pressure, and altered mental status. Multivariate logistic regression was conducted to determine the association between potential prognostic factors and in-hospital death.

RESULTS

After excluding 897 patients based on the exclusion criteria, 669 patients with pneumonic COPD-AE who were administered systemic corticosteroids were included. The in-hospital mortality rate was 5.1%. Altered mental status was associated with mortality (odds ratio, 4.47; 95% confidence intervals, 2.00 to 10.00), and eosinophilia was associated with a lower risk of mortality (odds ratio, 0.19; 95% confidence intervals: 0.06 to 0.56).

CONCLUSIONS

Altered mental status may be a prognostic factor for in-hospital death among patients with pneumonic COPD-AE who were administered systemic corticosteroids. Moreover, eosinophilia may be a prognostic factor for lower in-hospital mortality rate among these patients.

Our evolving view of neutrophils in defining the pathology of chronic lung disease

Neutrophils are critical components of the body's immune response to infection, being loaded with a potent arsenal of toxic mediators and displaying immense destructive capacity. Given the potential of neutrophils to impart extensive tissue damage, it is perhaps not surprising that when augmented these cells are also implicated in the pathology of inflammatory diseases. Prominent neutrophilic inflammation is a hallmark feature of patients with chronic lung diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, severe asthma, bronchiectasis and cystic fibrosis, with their numbers frequently associating with worse prognosis. Accordingly, it is anticipated that neutrophils are central to the pathology of these diseases and represent an attractive therapeutic target. However, in many instances, evidence directly linking neutrophils to the pathology of disease has remained somewhat circumstantial and strategies that have looked to reduce neutrophilic inflammation in the clinic have proved largely disappointing. We have classically viewed neutrophils as somewhat crude, terminally differentiated, insular and homogeneous protagonists of pathology. However, it is now clear that this does not do the neutrophil justice, and we now recognize that these cells exhibit heterogeneity, a pronounced awareness of the localized environment and a remarkable capacity to interact with and modulate the behaviour of a multitude of cells, even exhibiting anti-inflammatory, pro-resolving and pro-repair functions. In this review, we discuss evidence for the role of neutrophils in chronic lung disease and how our evolving view of these cells may impact upon our perceived assessment of their contribution to disease pathology and efforts to target them therapeutically.

Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and results in an economic and social burden that is both substantial and increasing. The natural history of COPD is punctuated by exacerbations, which have major short- and long-term implications on the patient and health care system. Evidence-based guidelines stipulate that early detection and prompt treatment of exacerbations are essential to ensure optimal outcomes and to reduce the burden of COPD. In this review, we provide a concise overview of COPD exacerbations and their risk factors and etiology (infection vs noninfectious), outlining the initial evaluation, triaging, and current management including invasive and noninvasive ventilation, in addition to the prognosis and the preventive strategies.

Preventing adverse cardiac events (PACE) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): study protocol for a double-blind, placebo controlled, randomised controlled trial of bisoprolol in COPD

INTRODUCTION

Heart disease in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common but neglected comorbidity. Patients with COPD are frequently excluded from clinical trials of treatments aimed at reducing cardiac morbidity and mortality, which has led to undertreatment of cardiovascular disease in patients with COPD. A particular concern in COPD is the underuse of beta (β)-blockers. There is observational evidence that cardioselective β-blockers are safe and may even reduce mortality risk in COPD, although some evidence is conflicting. There is an urgent need to answer the research question: Are cardioselective β-blockers safe and of benefit in people with moderately severe COPD? The proposed study will investigate whether cardioselective β-blocker treatment in patients with COPD reduces mortality and cardiac and respiratory morbidity.

METHODS AND ANALYSES

This is a double-blind, randomised controlled trial to be conducted in approximately 26 sites in Australia, New Zealand, India, Sri Lanka and other countries as required. Participants with COPD will be randomised to either bisoprolol once daily (range 1.25-5 mg, dependent on tolerated dose) or matched placebo, in addition to receiving usual care for their COPD over the study duration of 24 months.The study will enrol 1164 participants with moderate to severe COPD, aged 40-85 years. Participants will be symptomatic from their COPD and have a postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁) ≥30% and ≤70% predicted and a history of at least one exacerbation requiring systemic corticosteroids, antibiotics or both in the prior 24 months.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study protocol has been approved by the Sydney Local Health District Human Research Ethics Committee at The Concord Repatriation General Hospital.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS

NCT03917914; CTRI/2020/08/027322.

Employment Status, Readmission and Mortality After Acute Exacerbation of COPD

Introduction

The understanding of whether and to what extent employment status affects readmission and mortality is limited in patients with COPD.

Aim

To explore how employment status affects readmission and mortality after first admission to the hospital with acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD).

Methods

This study used Danish national registry-based data. All patients admitted for the first time to the hospital between 1999 and 2014 with a diagnosis of AECOPD, age 35–59, without a previous asthma diagnosis were included in the study. Employment status effect on 30-, 90-, and 365-day readmission and mortality was examined using logistic regression, adjusting for relevant confounders.

Results

A total of 11,850 COPD patients were included in the study of which 3563 (30%) were working, 1368 (12%) unemployed, 840 (7%) on sick leave, and 6079 (51%) receiving early retirement. Patients receiving early retirement had, compared to patients working, an adjusted increased likelihood of readmission at 30, 90, and 365 days (odds ratio (OR) 1.26 (CI^95% (1.06–1.49)), 1.33 (CI^95% (1.16–1.53)), and 1.48 (CI^95% (1.33–1.66)), respectively). An increased likelihood was also seen in unemployed at 365 days follow-up (OR 1.44 (CI^95% (1.22–1.68))). Early retirement was associated with an increased mortality at 30, 90, and 365 days (OR 1.39 (CI^95% (1.07–1.80)) 1.37 (CI^95% (1.09–1.79)) and 1.48 (CI^95% (1.25–1.75)), respectively). An increased likelihood was also seen in patients receiving sick leave (OR 1.57 (CI^95% (1.21–2.04))).

Conclusion

Patients with COPD who are not working at the time of first admission have a higher likelihood of readmission and mortality.

Models of care across the continuum of exacerbations for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality, and treatments require a multidisciplinary approach to address patient needs. This review considers different models of care across the continuum of exacerbations (1) chronic care and self-management interventions with the action plan, (2) domiciliary care for severe exacerbation and the impact on readmission prevention and (3) the discharge care bundle for management beyond the acute exacerbation episode. Self-management strategies include written action plans and coaching with patient and family support. Self-management interventions facilitate the delivery of good care, can reduce exacerbations associated with admission, be cost-effective and improve quality of life. Hospitalization as a complication of exacerbation is not always unavoidable. Domiciliary care has been proposed as a solution to replace part, and perhaps even all, of the patient’s in-hospital stay, and to reduce hospital bed days, readmission rates and costs; low-risk patients can be identified using risk stratification tools. A COPD discharge bundle is another potentially important approach that can be considered to improve the management of COPD exacerbations complicated by hospital admission; it comprised treatments that have demonstrated efficacy, such as smoking cessation, personalized pharmacotherapy and non-pharmacotherapy such as pulmonary rehabilitation. COPD bundles may also improve the transition of care from the hospital to the community following exacerbation and may reduce readmission rates. Future models of care should be personalized – providing patient education aiming at behaviour changes, identifying and treating co-morbidities, and including outcomes that measure quality of care rather than focusing only on readmission quantity within 30 days.

Association between increased mortality and bronchial fibroscopy in intensive care units and intermediate care units during COPD exacerbations: an analysis of the 2014 and 2015 National French Medical-based Information System Databases (PMSI)

Background

The course of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is punctuated by exacerbations, most often of infectious origin, responsible for many intensive care unit (ICU) and intermediate care unit (IMCU) admissions. Our objective was to study in-hospital mortality during severe COPD exacerbations in ICU and IMCU based on the performance of bronchoscopy.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was carried out on stays in ICUs for COPD exacerbation from the French Programme for the Medicalisation of Information Systems databases for the years 2014 and 2015. Propensity score matching of stays made it possible to constitute two comparable groups on the factors of excess mortality described in the literature (age, sex, SAPS 2, type of admission and bronchial tumour).

Results

We identified 14,491 stays for COPD exacerbation in ICUs, 2586 of which received a bronchoscopy. Mortality was significantly higher in the fibroscopy group (31.32% versus 19.8%). After propensity score matching, we found an excess of mortality in the intervention group (OR = 1.749 [1.516–2.017]) associated with a significantly longer length of stay. The main diagnoses associated with an increased risk of death were pulmonary embolism (OR = 3.251 [1.126–9.384]), bacterial pneumonia (OR = 1.906 [1.173–3.098]) and acute respiratory failure (OR = 1.840 [1.486–2.278]).

Conclusions

Performing bronchoscopy during ICU hospitalisations for severe COPD exacerbations was associated with increased mortality. This increased mortality appears to be related to a bias in patient selection with a procedure reserved for patients with the adverse course.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40560-021-00560-w.

Prognostic indicators for in-hospital mortality in COPD with acute exacerbation in Thailand: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is a common and deteriorating event leading to in-hospital morbidity and mortality. Identification of predictors for in-hospital mortality of AECOPD patients could aid clinicians in identifying patients with a higher risk of death during their hospitalisation.

Objective

To explore potential prognostic indicators associated with in-hospital mortality of AECOPD patients.

Setting

General medical ward and medical intensive care unit of a university-affiliated tertiary care centre.

Methods

A prognostic factor research was conducted with a retrospective cohort design. All admission records of AECOPD patients between October 2015 and September 2016 were retrieved. Stratified Cox’s regression was used for the primary analysis.

Results

A total of 516 admission records of 358 AECOPD patients were included in this study. The in-hospital mortality rate of the cohort was 1.9 per 100 person-day. From stratified Cox’s proportional hazard regression, the predictors of in-hospital mortality were aged 80 years or more (HR=2.16, 95% CI: 1.26 to 3.72, p=0.005), respiratory failure on admission (HR=2.50, 95% CI: 1.12 to 5.57, p=0.025), body temperature more than 38°C (HR=2.97, 95% CI: 1.61 to 5.51, p=0.001), mean arterial pressure lower than 65 mm Hg (HR=4.01, 95% CI: 1.88 to 8.60, p<0.001), white blood cell count more than 15 x 10⁹/L (HR=3.51, 95% CI: 1.90 to 6.48, p<0.001) and serum creatinine more than 1.5 mg/dL (HR=2.08, 95% CI: 1.17 to 3.70, p=0.013).

Conclusion

Six independent prognostic indicators for in-hospital mortality of AECOPD patients were identified. All of the parameters were readily available in routine practice and can be used as an aid for risk stratification of AECOPD patients.