Long-term insights into the influence of precipitation on community dynamics in desert rodents

Transferability of ecological forecasting models to novel biotic conditions in a long-term experimental study

Ecological forecasting models play an increasingly important role for managing natural resources and assessing our fundamental knowledge of processes driving ecological dynamics. As global environmental change pushes ecosystems beyond their historical conditions, the utility of these models may depend on their transferability to novel conditions. Because species interactions can alter resource use, timing of reproduction, and other aspects of a species' realized niche, changes in biotic conditions, which can arise from community reorganization events in response to environmental change, have the potential to impact model transferability. Using a long-term experiment on desert rodents, we assessed model transferability under novel biotic conditions to better understand the limitations of ecological forecasting. We show that ecological forecasts can be less accurate when the models generating them are transferred to novel biotic conditions and that the extent of model transferability can depend on the species being forecast. We also demonstrate the importance of incorporating uncertainty into forecast evaluation with transferred models generating less accurate and more uncertain forecasts. These results suggest that how a species perceives its competitive landscape can influence model transferability and that when uncertainties are properly accounted for, transferred models may still be appropriate for decision making. Assessing the extent of the transferability of forecasting models is a crucial step to increase our understanding of the limitations of ecological forecasts.

Effects of multiple mammalian herbivores and climate on grassland-shrubland transitions in the Chihuahuan Desert

The replacement of grasses by shrubs or bare ground (xerification) is a primary form of landscape change in drylands globally with consequences for ecosystem services. The potential for wild herbivores to trigger or reinforce shrubland states may be underappreciated, however, and comparative analyses across herbivore taxa are sparse. We sought to clarify the relative effects of domestic cattle, native rodents, native lagomorphs, and exotic African oryx (Oryx gazella) on a Chihuahuan Desert grassland undergoing shrub encroachment. We then asked whether drought periods, wet season precipitation, or interspecific grass-shrub competition modified herbivore effects to alter plant cover, species diversity, or community composition. We established a long-term experiment with hierarchical herbivore exclosure treatments and surveyed plant foliar cover over 25 years. Cover of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa) proliferated, responding primarily to climate, and was unaffected by herbivore treatments. Surprisingly, cattle and African oryx exclusion had only marginal effects on perennial grass cover at their current densities. Native lagomorphs interacted with climate to limit perennial grass cover during wet periods. Native rodents strongly decreased plant diversity, decreased evenness, and altered community composition. Overall, we found no evidence of mammalian herbivores facilitating or inhibiting shrub encroachment, but native small mammals interacting with climate drove dynamics of herbaceous plant communities. Ongoing monitoring will determine whether increased perennial grass cover from exclusion of native lagomorphs and rodents slows the transition to a dense shrubland.

Shifts in competitive structures can drive variation in species' phenology

For many species, a well documented response to anthropogenic climate change is a shift in various aspects of its life history, including its timing or phenology. Often, these phenological shifts are associated with changes in abiotic factors used as proxies for resource availability or other suitable conditions. Resource availability, however, can also be impacted by competition, but the impact of competition on phenology is less studied than abiotic drivers. We fit generalized additive models (GAMs) to a long-term experimental dataset on small mammals monitored in the southwestern United States and show that altered competitive landscapes can drive shifts in breeding timing and prevalence, and that, relative to a dominant competitor, other species exhibit less specific responses to environmental factors. These results suggest that plasticity of phenological responses, which is often described in the context of annual variation in abiotic factors, can occur in response to biotic context as well. Variation in phenological responses under different biotic conditions shown here further demonstrates that a more nuanced understanding of shifting biotic interactions is useful to better understand and predict biodiversity patterns in a changing world.

Remotely sensed environmental measurements detect decoupled processes driving population dynamics at contrasting scales

The increasing availability of satellite imagery has supported a rapid expansion in forward-looking studies seeking to track and predict how climate change will influence wild population dynamics. However, these data can also be used in retrospect to provide additional context for historical data in the absence of contemporaneous environmental measurements. We used 167 Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) images spanning 13 years to identify environmental drivers of fitness and population size in a well-characterized population of banner-tailed kangaroo rats (Dipodomys spectabilis) in the southwestern United States. We found evidence of two decoupled processes that may be driving population dynamics in opposing directions over distinct time frames. Specifically, increasing mean surface temperature corresponded to increased individual fitness, where fitness is defined as the number of offspring produced by a single individual. This result contrasts with our findings for population size, where increasing surface temperature led to decreased numbers of active mounds. These relationships between surface temperature and (i) individual fitness and (ii) population size would not have been identified in the absence of remotely sensed data, indicating that such information can be used to test existing hypotheses and generate new ecological predictions regarding fitness at multiple spatial scales and degrees of sampling effort. To our knowledge, this study is the first to directly link remotely sensed environmental data to individual fitness in a nearly exhaustively sampled population, opening a new avenue for incorporating remote sensing data into eco-evolutionary studies.

Small Mammal Diversity Changes in a Baltic Country, 1975-2021: A Review

The structure and diversity of small mammal (SM) communities over the long term may show the influences of climate change, landscape changes and local disturbances. We review published data regarding SM trapping and owl pellet analysis from Lithuania (the most southerly of the three Baltic States, Northern Europe), covering the period 1975-2021. Over decades, we analysed trends in the diversity of SM communities and the proportions of species and proportions of trophic groups. The large increase in granivores, from 6.9% in 1975-1980 to 45.4% in 2011-2020 and 54.7% in 2021, coincided with a decrease in omnivores and insectivores. The proportion of herbivores increased less notably. At the species level, significant decreases in the proportions of M. arvalis, C. glareolus and S. araneus were accompanied by notable increases in the proportions of A. flavicollis and A. agrarius, the latter from 1.0% in 1975-1980 to 25.3% in 2021. Concluding, two periods were identified, specifically before the 1990s and subsequently. In the second period, in the aftermath of land-use changes within the country in 1990, diversity increased, and dominance decreased, a situation that has not subsequently changed. Not excluding the concomitant effects of climate change, we relate these patterns to the alterations in habitat and anthropogenic impact.

Winter diet of Burrowing Owls in the Llano La Soledad, Galeana, Nuevo León, México

The dietary niche breadth of the Burrowing Owl was determined (Athene cunicularia Molina, 1782) in Llano La Soledad, Galeana, Nuevo Leon in northern Mexico, by considering prey type, numerical percentage, weight, weight percentage, frequency of occurrence percentage, and IRI percentage. The study compared data from three winters (2002-2003, 2003-2004, 2004-2005) by analyzing 358 pellets, identifying 850 prey items. Invertebrates constituted 90% of prey items, which mostly included insects (85%); beetles were the most common insects found in pellets (70%). Vertebrates made up 84% of consumed weight, of which 83% were mammals. Most of the mammals were cricetid rodents (41%). Niche breadth based on the numerical and weight percentage confirmed the Burrowing Owl as a generalist species with mean values per year ranging between 0.65 and 0.82. Additionally, there was a strong association between the weight of rodent species in winter. This association was mainly driven by changes in composition and frequency of these prey species during the second winter, probably caused by high annual rainfall. The second season also showed a statistically significant narrower niche (Ro = 0.96) and the smallest overlap (0.45 vs. 0.76) among the three winters.

Factors driving California pocket mice (Chaetodipus californicus) population dynamics

Understanding how demographic parameters respond to climatic variables is essential for predicting species’ response to changing environmental conditions. The California pocket mouse (Chaetodipus californicus) is an inhabitant of coastal-central California oak (Quercus spp.) woodland that is undergoing a rapid anthropogenic transformation while also facing effects of global climate change. We analyzed the population dynamics of the California pocket mouse by applying Pradel’s temporal symmetry model to a 10-year (2004 – 2013) capture–mark–recapture data set to estimate survival and recruitment rates and realized population growth rate. The overall monthly apparent survival probability (ϕ) was 0.76 ± 0.01 SE and was slightly higher in the dry season (0.79 ± 0.02 SE) than the wet season (0.74 ± 0.01 SE). Coefficients of variation (CV) of temperature and rainfall (with and without a one-season lag), average seasonal temperature, and regional climatic variation (El Niño index) positively influenced ϕ. Overall monthly recruitment rate (f) was 0.17 ± 0.01 SE but varied seasonally; f was substantially higher during the dry season (0.39 ± 0.04 SE) than the wet season (0.09 ± 0.02 SE). Average seasonal temperature, CV of temperature and rainfall (without a one-season lag), and total seasonal rainfall (with a one-season lag) positively influenced recruitment, whereas regional climatic variation (El Niño index), total seasonal rainfall (without a one-season lag), and CV of rainfall (with a one-season lag) had a negative effect on f. Monthly realized population growth rate (λ) was 1.00 ± 0.02 SE for the entire study period, but it varied temporally. Our study provides the first estimates of demographic parameters for the California pocket mouse and tests for the influence of climatic variables on these parameters. Although the California pocket mouse population remained relatively stable during our study (as indicated by λ = 1.00), changing climate and anthropogenic influences on California oak woodland could adversely influence demographic parameters and population dynamics and might also indicate effects of climate change on its ecologically sensitive habitat.

Multiple coping strategies maintain stability of a small mammal population in a resource-restricted environment

In semi-arid environments, aperiodic rainfall pulses determine plant production and resource availability for higher trophic levels, creating strong bottom-up regulation. The influence of climatic factors on population vital rates often shapes the dynamics of small mammal populations in such resource-restricted environments. Using a 21-year biannual capture-recapture dataset (1993 to 2014), we examined the impacts of climatic factors on the population dynamics of the brush mouse (Peromyscus boylii) in semi-arid oak woodland of coastal-central California. We applied Pradel's temporal symmetry model to estimate capture probability (p), apparent survival (φ), recruitment (f), and realized population growth rate (λ) of the brush mouse and examined the effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño on these demographic parameters. The population was stable during the study period with a monthly realized population growth rate of 0.993 ± SE 0.032, but growth varied over time from 0.680 ± 0.054 to 1.450 ± 0.083. Monthly survival estimates averaged 0.789 ± 0.005 and monthly recruitment estimates averaged 0.175 ± 0.038. Survival probability and realized population growth rate were positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, recruitment was negatively correlated with rainfall and positively correlated with temperature. Brush mice maintained their population through multiple coping strategies, with high recruitment during warmer and drier periods and higher survival during cooler and wetter conditions. Although climatic change in coastal-central California will likely favor recruitment over survival, varying strategies may serve as a mechanism by which brush mice maintain resilience in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that rainfall and temperature are both important drivers of brush mouse population dynamics and will play a significant role in predicting the future viability of brush mice under a changing climate.

Declines in rodent abundance and diversity track regional climate variability in North American drylands

Regional long-term monitoring can enhance the detection of biodiversity declines associated with climate change, improving future projections by reducing reliance on space-for-time substitution and increasing scalability. Rodents are diverse and important consumers in drylands, regions defined by the scarcity of water that cover 45% of Earth's land surface and face increasingly drier and more variable climates. We analyzed abundance data for 22 rodent species across grassland, shrubland, ecotone, and woodland ecosystems in the southwestern USA. Two time series (1995-2006 and 2004-2013) coincided with phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which influences drought in southwestern North America. Regionally, rodent species diversity declined 20%-35%, with greater losses during the later time period. Abundance also declined regionally, but only during 2004-2013, with losses of 5% of animals captured. During the first time series (wetter climate), plant productivity outranked climate variables as the best regional predictor of rodent abundance for 70% of taxa, whereas during the second period (drier climate), climate best explained variation in abundance for 60% of taxa. Temporal dynamics in diversity and abundance differed spatially among ecosystems, with the largest declines in woodlands and shrublands of central New Mexico and Colorado. Which species were winners or losers under increasing drought and amplified interannual variability in drought depended on ecosystem type and the phase of the PDO. Fewer taxa were significant winners (18%) than losers (30%) under drought, but the identities of winners and losers differed among ecosystems for 70% of taxa. Our results suggest that the sensitivities of rodent species to climate contributed to regional declines in diversity and abundance during 1995-2013. Whether these changes portend future declines in drought-sensitive consumers in the southwestern USA will depend on the climate during the next major PDO cycle.

Climatic factors and population demography in big-eared woodrat, Neotoma macrotis

Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns can have marked impacts on small mammal populations that inhabit environments with highly fluctuating water availability. With projected increases in droughts and fewer but more intense rainfall events in the Southwestern United States, the persistence of many wildlife populations may be threatened. Our goal was to assess how temperature and rainfall during distinct dry and wet seasons influenced the dynamics of a population of big-eared woodrats (Neotoma macrotis) in a mixed oak woodland of coastal central California. We applied Pradel’s temporal symmetry models to our 21-year biannual capture–mark–recapture data set (1993–2014) to determine the effects of climatic factors on the woodrats’ apparent survival (Φ) and recruitment rate (f). Monthly Φ averaged 0.945 ± 0.001 and varied with season. Monthly f was 0.064 ± 0.001 in the wet season (f was fixed to 0 in the dry season). Monthly population growth rate (λ) varied from 0.996 ± 0.001 during the dry season to 1.001 ± 0.001 during the wet season, which indicated a stable population (0.999 ± 0.001). Total rainfall from the previous season and mean temperature during the same season positively influenced Φ and f. By contrast, Φ and f were negatively influenced by mean temperature from the previous season and total rainfall in the same season. The resulting λ fluctuated with total rainfall, particularly in the wet season. Our results suggest that the big-eared woodrat population may not be substantially affected by warm temperatures per se, potentially because of the microclimate provided by its stick houses. We also discuss its adaptability to local food resources and relatively slow life history relative to other cricetids, and propose that the big-eared woodrat population may be equipped to cope with future climate change.

Local effects of global climate on a small rodent Necromys lasiurus

Global climate drivers often have strong effects on the carrying capacity of animal populations, but little is known about how effects differ between regional and local scales. In this paper we evaluated how climate variables were correlated with regional and local fluctuations of a small rodent, Necromys lasiurus, in an Amazonian savanna. Between 2000 and 2019, we evaluated the temporal variation in abundance of N. lasiurus in eight 4.0-ha plots separated by 0.8 – 10.6 km. Using generalized linear mixed models, we found that, at a regional scale, the abundance of rodents captured was positively associated with the abundance in the prior year, but had little relationship with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which had been shown to affect rats in a single plot in a previous study. However, variation in densities among years was coordinated among some plots, leading to patchiness in population dynamics. Based on the patterns of density fluctuations, the plots formed three clusters. Analyses based on these clusters indicated that only one was strongly affected by SOI, as in the previous study. The differences in the effects of global climate drivers on populations of a single species in relatively homogeneous habitat indicate that predictions about the effects of climate change should be based on simultaneous studies in a variety of sites or they may lead to spurious relationships.

Autumn bird migration phenology: A potpourri of wind, precipitation and temperature effects

Climate change has caused a clear and univocal trend towards advancement in spring phenology. Changes in autumn phenology are much more diverse, with advancement, delays, and 'no change' all occurring frequently. For migratory birds, patterns in autumn migration phenology trends have been identified based on ecological and life-history traits. Explaining interspecific variation has nevertheless been challenging, and the underlying mechanisms have remained elusive. Radar studies on non-species-specific autumn migration intensity have repeatedly suggested that there are strong links with weather. In long-term species-specific studies, the variance in autumn migration phenology explained by weather has, nevertheless, been rather low, or a relationship was even lacking entirely. We performed a spatially explicit time window analysis of weather effects on mean autumn passage of four trans-Saharan and six intra-European passerines to gain insights into this apparent contradiction. We analysed data from standardized daily captures at the Heligoland island constant-effort site (Germany), in combination with gridded daily temperature, precipitation and wind data over a 55-year period (1960-2014), across northern Europe. Weather variables at the breeding and stopover grounds explained up to 80% of the species-specific interannual variability in autumn passage. Overall, wind conditions were most important. For intra-European migrants, wind was even twice as important as either temperature or precipitation, and the pattern also held in terms of relative contributions of each climate variable to the temporal trends in autumn phenology. For the trans-Saharan migrants, however, the pattern of relative trend contributions was completely reversed. Temperature and precipitation had strong trend contributions, while wind conditions had only a minor impact because they did not show any strong temporal trends. As such, understanding species-specific effects of climate on autumn phenology not only provides unique insights into each species' ecology but also how these effects shape the observed interspecific heterogeneity in autumn phenological trends.

Generalist dispersal and gene flow of an endangered keystone specialist (Dipodomys ingens)

Movement ecology and dispersal capabilities inherently drive genetic structure across landscapes. Through understanding dispersal and gene flow of giant kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ingens), conservation efforts can be focused, and we can further understand how genetic structure persists in this highly endemic small mammal. Here, we genetically identify parent–offspring and sibship relationships among 239 giant kangaroo rats using 15 microsatellites in the northern part of the species range and describe the individual genetic-spatial variation using a Moran eigenvector map (MEM). We further employ two landscape genetic analyses (isolation by resistance [IBR] and least cost paths [LCPs]) and two individual-based genetic metrics (Dps and a codominant marker distance from GenAlEx) to determine landscape factors (precipitation, slope, vegetation community, and roads) that influence gene flow. We found 19 pairs of related individuals, of which 18 were less than 250 m apart, but one sibling pair was 5.52 km apart, suggesting greater dispersal capabilities than previously noted. We found hierarchal spatial genetic structure using a MEM, with 3–4 genetically similar regions and two genetically similar subregions. Finally, we found low correlative strength between landscape features and gene flow. IBR consistently outperformed LCPs, and there was evidence that regions with 250–350 mm of precipitation and slope ≤ 5° promoted connectivity. We recommend that managers focus on habitat protection rather than corridor maintenance, with the caveat that anthropogenic factors were minimally considered in this study.

Foraging strategies of individual silky pocket mice over a boom-bust cycle in a stochastic dryland ecosystem

Small mammals use multiple foraging strategies to compensate for fluctuating resource quality in stochastic environments. These strategies may lead to increased dietary overlap when competition for resources is strong. To quantify temporal contributions of high (C₃) versus low quality (C₄) resources in diets of silky pocket mice (Perognathus flavus), we used stable carbon isotope (δ¹³C) analysis of 1391 plasma samples collected over 2 years. Of these, 695 samples were from 170 individuals sampled ≥ 3 times across seasons or years, allowing us to assess changes in dietary breadth at the population and individual levels across a boom-bust population cycle. In 2014, the P. flavus population increased to 412 captures compared to 8 captures in prior and subsequent years, while populations of co-occurring small mammals remained stable. As intraspecific competition increased, the population-wide dietary niche of P. flavus did not change, but individual specialization increased significantly. During this period, ~ 27% (41/151) of individuals sampled specialized on C₃ resources, which were abundant during the spring and previous fall seasons. Most of the remaining individuals were C₃-C₄ generalists (64%) (96/151), and only 9% (14/151) specialized on C₄ resources. In 2015, P. flavus population density and resource availability declined, individual dietary breadth expanded (84% generalists), no C₃ specialists were found, and specialization on C₄ resources increased (16%). Our results demonstrate a high degree of inter-individual plasticity in P. flavus foraging strategies, which has implications for how this species will respond to environmental change that is predicted to decrease C₃ resources in the future.

The importance of productivity and seasonality for structuring small rodent diversity across a tropical elevation gradient

Photosynthetic productivity is a key determinant of the abundance and distribution of biodiversity around the world. The effect of this productivity on the distribution patterns of mammals is frequently invoked; however, it is seldom measured directly. In this study, we used Sherman live traps set in dry and rainy seasons across a 2300-m elevation gradient in southwestern Mexico to assess small rodent species distributions, and to relate these patterns to habitat structure, climate, and a well-accepted measure of photosynthetic productivity: the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). While habitat structure and climate helped explain some of the patterns observed, NDVI proved to be the most important contributing variable for most of the distribution models. We also found that partitioning the gradient-distribution model by trapping season revealed strong differences in terms of the effect of NDVI and the other explanatory variables. For example, lower elevations were associated with seasonal and year-round reductions in rodent diversity and were composed almost exclusively of granivore-based species assemblages. By contrast, the middle and upper elevations were more species rich, less affected by seasonality, and characterized by omnivorous species. Our results suggest that the positive productivity-diversity relationship found may be due, at least in part, to increased food resources and niche opportunities at more productive elevations. Increased diversity at the higher elevations may also be partially due to reductions in competition that result from productivity increases, as well as from the broader spectrum of feeding guild representation that it and the lack of seasonality allow.

Long-distance flights and high-risk breeding by nomadic waterbirds on desert salt lakes

Understanding and conserving mobile species presents complex challenges, especially for animals in stochastic or changing environments. Nomadic waterbirds must locate temporary water in arid biomes where rainfall is highly unpredictable in space and time. To achieve this they need to travel over vast spatial scales and time arrival to exploit pulses in food resources. How they achieve this is an enduring mystery.  We investigated these challenges in the colonial-nesting Banded Stilt (Cladorhynchus leucocephalus), a nomadic shorebird of conservation concern. Hitherto, Banded Stilts were hypothesized to have only 1-2 chances to breed during their long lifetime, when flooding rain fills desert salt lakes, triggering mass-hatching of brine shrimp. Over 6 years, we satellite tagged 57 individuals, conducted 21 aerial surveys to detect nesting colonies on 14 Australian desert salt lakes, and analyzed 3 decades of Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery to quantify salt-lake flood frequency and extent. Within days of distant inland rainfall, Banded Stilts flew 1,000-2,000 km to reach flooded salt lakes. On arrival, females laid over half their body weight in eggs. We detected nesting episodes across the species' range at 7 times the frequency reported during the previous 80 years. Nesting colonies of thousands formed following minor floods, yet most were subsequently abandoned when the water rapidly evaporated prior to egg hatching. Satellite imagery revealed twice as many flood events sufficient for breeding-colony initiation as recorded colonies, suggesting that nesting at remote sites has been underdetected. Individuals took risk on uncertain breeding opportunities by responding to frequent minor flood events between infrequent extensive flooding, exemplifying the extreme adaptability and trade-offs of species exploiting unstable environments. The conservation challenges of nest predation by overabundant native gulls and anthropogenic modifications to salt lakes filling frequencies require investigation, as do the physiological and navigational mechanisms that enable such extreme strategies.

Integrating community assembly and biodiversity to better understand ecosystem function: the Community Assembly and the Functioning of Ecosystems (CAFE) approach

The research of a generation of ecologists was catalysed by the recognition that the number and identity of species in communities influences the functioning of ecosystems. The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) is most often examined by controlling species richness and randomising community composition. In natural systems, biodiversity changes are often part of a bigger community assembly dynamic. Therefore, focusing on community assembly and the functioning of ecosystems (CAFE), by integrating both species richness and composition through species gains, losses and changes in abundance, will better reveal how community changes affect ecosystem function. We synthesise the BEF and CAFE perspectives using an ecological application of the Price equation, which partitions the contributions of richness and composition to function. Using empirical examples, we show how the CAFE approach reveals important contributions of composition to function. These examples show how changes in species richness and composition driven by environmental perturbations can work in concert or antagonistically to influence ecosystem function. Considering how communities change in an integrative fashion, rather than focusing on one axis of community structure at a time, will improve our ability to anticipate and predict changes in ecosystem function.

Anthropogenic water sources and the effects on Sonoran Desert small mammal communities

Anthropogenic water sources (AWS) are developed water sources used as a management tool for desert wildlife species. Studies documenting the effects of AWS are often focused on game species; whereas, the effects on non-target wildlife are less understood. We used live trapping techniques to investigate rodent abundance, biomass, and diversity metrics near AWS and paired control sites; we sampled vegetation to determine rodent-habitat associations in the Sauceda Mountains of the Sonoran Desert in Arizona. A total of 370 individual mammals representing three genera and eight species were captured in 4,800 trap nights from winter 2011 to spring 2012. A multi-response permutation procedure was used to identify differences in small mammal community abundance and biomass by season and treatment. Rodent abundance, biomass, and richness were greater at AWS compared to control sites. Patterns of abundance and biomass were driven by the desert pocket mouse (Chaetodipus penicillatus) which was the most common capture and two times more numerous at AWS compared to controls. Vegetation characteristics, explored using principal components analysis, were similar between AWS and controls. Two species that prefer vegetation structure, Bailey’s pocket mouse (C. baileyi) and white-throated woodrat (Neotoma albigula), had greater abundances and biomass near AWS and were associated with habitat having high cactus density. Although small mammals do not drink free-water, perhaps higher abundances of some species of desert rodents at AWS could be related to artificial structure associated with construction or other resources. Compared to the 30-year average of precipitation for the area, the period of our study occurred during a dry winter. During dry periods, perhaps AWS provide resources to rodents related to moisture.

Changes in abundance and reproductive activity of small arid-zone murid rodents on an active cattle station in central Australia

Context Boom and bust population cycles are characteristic of many arid-zone rodents, but it is unknown to what extent these dynamics might be influenced by the presence of invasive rodents, such as the house mouse (Mus musculus) in Australia. Aim To determine whether the presence of M. musculus can have negative consequences on the population abundance and reproduction of two old Australian endemic rodents (the spinifex hopping mouse, Notomys alexis, and sandy inland mouse, Pseudomys hermannsburgensis). Methods The study took place on the sand dunes of a cattle station in central Australia. Population abundance was estimated as the number of individuals caught in small mammal traps, and female reproductive condition by external examination and, in a few cases, euthanasia and inspection of the reproductive tract. Key results Two synchronous periods of high abundance of N. alexis and M. musculus occurred several months after significant rainfall events, whereas the abundance of P. hermannsburgensis was consistently low. No reproduction took place in N. alexis or M. musculus when populations had reached high abundance. During low-rainfall periods, M. musculus was not detected on the sand dunes, and the two endemic species were sparsely distributed, with reproduction occasionally being evident. Conclusions During dry periods, M. musculus contracted back to refuges around the homestead and, after significant rainfall, it expanded onto the sand dunes and became abundant at the same time as did N. alexis. In contrast, and unlike in areas where M. musculus was generally rare, P. hermannsburgensis always remained at a low abundance. These patterns suggest that in areas of the natural environment close to human-modified sites, populations of at least one species of an old endemic rodent are supressed by the presence of M. musculus. Reproduction did not occur in the old endemics at times of high M. musculus abundance, but did take place in spring/early summer, even in some dry years. Implications The spread of M. musculus into the Australian arid zone may have had negative impacts on the population dynamics of P. hermannsburgensis. These findings suggest that the presence of human settlements has resulted in refuges for house mice, which periodically spread out into the natural environment during ‘boom’ times and adversely affect the natural population cycle of ecologically similar species such as P. hermannsburgensis.

The influence of wildlife water developments and vegetation on rodent abundance in the Great Basin Desert

Rodent communities have multiple functions including comprising a majority of the mammalian diversity within an ecosystem, providing a significant portion of the available biomass consumed by predators, and contributing to ecosystem services. Despite the importance of rodent communities, few investigations have explored the effects of increasing anthropogenic modifications to the landscape on rodents. Throughout the western United States, the construction of artificial water developments to benefit game species is commonplace. While benefits for certain species have been documented, several researchers recently hypothesized that these developments may cause unintentional negative effects to desert-adapted species and communities. To test this idea, we sampled rodents near to and distant from wildlife water developments over 4 consecutive summers. We employed an asymmetrical before-after-control-impact (BACI) design with sampling over 4 summers to determine if water developments influenced total rodent abundance. We performed an additional exploratory analysis to determine if factors other than free water influenced rodent abundance. We found no evidence that water developments impacted rodent abundance. Rodent abundance was primarily driven by vegetation type and year of sampling. Our findings suggested that water developments on our study area do not represent a significant disturbance to rodent abundance and that rodent abundance was influenced by the vegetative community and temporal factors linked to precipitation and primary plant production. Our findings represent one of the 1st efforts to determine the effects of an anthropogenic activity on the rodent community utilizing a manipulation design.

A mast-seeding desert shrub regulates population dynamics and behavior of its heteromyid dispersers

Granivorous rodent populations in deserts are primarily regulated through precipitation-driven resource pulses rather than pulses associated with mast-seeding, a pattern more common in mesic habitats. We studied heteromyid responses to mast-seeding in the desert shrub blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima), a regionally dominant species in the Mojave-Great Basin Desert transition zone. In a 5-year study at Arches National Park, Utah, USA, we quantified spatiotemporal variation in seed resources in mast and intermast years in blackbrush-dominated and mixed desert vegetation and measured responses of Dipodomys ordii (Ord's kangaroo rat) and Perognathus flavescens (plains pocket mouse). In blackbrush-dominated vegetation, blackbrush seeds comprised >79% of seed production in a mast year, but 0% in the first postmast year. Kangaroo rat abundance in blackbrush-dominated vegetation was highest in the mast year, declined sharply at the end of the first postmast summer, and then remained at low levels for 3 years. Pocket mouse abundance was not as strongly associated with blackbrush seed production. In mixed desert vegetation, kangaroo rat abundance was higher and more uniform through time. Kangaroo rats excluded the smaller pocket mice from resource-rich patches including a pipeline disturbance and also moved their home range centers closer to this disturbance in a year of low blackbrush seed production. Home range size for kangaroo rats was unrelated to seed resource density in the mast year, but resource-poor home ranges were larger (P < 0.001) in the first postmast year, when resources were limiting. Blackbrush seeds are higher in protein and fat but lower in carbohydrates than the more highly preferred seeds of Indian ricegrass (Achnatherum hymenoides) and have similar energy value per unit of handling time. Kangaroo rats cached seeds of these two species in similar spatial configurations, implying that they were equally valued as stored food resources. Blackbrush mast is a key resource regulating populations of kangaroo rats in this ecosystem.

Rapid warming and drought negatively impact population size and reproductive dynamics of an avian predator in the arid southwest

Avian communities of arid ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to global climate change due to the magnitude of projected change for desert regions and the inherent challenges for species residing in resource limited ecosystems. How arid-zone birds will be affected by rapid increases in air temperature and increased drought frequency and severity is poorly understood because avian responses to climate change have primarily been studied in the relatively mesic northern temperate regions. We studied the effects of increasing air temperature and aridity on a Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) population in the southwestern United States from 1998 to 2013. Over 16 years, the breeding population declined 98.1%, from 52 pairs to 1 pair, and nest success and fledgling output also declined significantly. These trends were strongly associated with the combined effects of decreased precipitation and increased air temperature. Arrival on the breeding grounds, pair formation, nest initiation, and hatch dates all showed significant delays ranging from 9.4 to 25.1 days over 9 years, which have negative effects on reproduction. Adult and juvenile body mass decreased significantly over time, with a loss of 7.9% mass in adult males and 10.9% mass in adult females over 16 years, and a loss of 20.0% mass in nestlings over 8 years. Taken together, these population and reproductive trends have serious implications for local population persistence. The southwestern United States has been identified as a climate change hotspot, with projections of warmer temperatures, less winter precipitation, and an increase in frequency and severity of extreme events including drought and heat waves. An increasingly warm and dry climate may contribute to this species' decline and may already be a driving force of their apparent decline in the desert southwest.

Anthropogenic stressors influence small mammal communities in tropical East African savanna at multiple spatial scales

Context Protection of natural ecosystems undoubtedly safeguards ecological communities, with positive benefits for ecosystem processes and function. However, ecosystems are under threat from anthropogenic stressors that reduce the resilience both of component species and the system as a whole. Aims To determine how anthropogenic stressors (land use and climate change) could impact the diversity and resilience of a small mammal community in the greater Serengeti ecosystem, an East African savanna comprising Serengeti National Park (SNP) and adjacent agro-ecosystems, at local (SNP) and Africa-wide geographic scales. Methods We recorded small mammal species in 10 habitats in the greater Serengeti ecosystem, including the agro-ecosystem, over 48 years (1962–2010). We calculated richness and diversity for each habitat type, and used an index of similarity to quantify differences in the community among habitats. Species accumulation curves were also generated for each habitat type. Key results We recorded 40 species of small mammals in the greater Serengeti ecosystem. At the local scale, restricted habitat types in SNP (each <1% of the total area) made a disproportionately large contribution to diversity. Agro-ecosystems had lower richness and were less likely to contain specialist species. At regional and Africa-wide scales, local endemics were less likely to be recorded in the agro-ecosystem (57% species loss) compared with those with regional (33% loss) or Africa-wide (31%) geographic distributions. Conclusions At the local scale, the variety of habitats in SNP contributed to overall diversity. However, the ability to maintain this diversity in the adjacent agro-ecosystem was compromised for localised endemics compared with species with Africa-wide ranges. Land use intensification adjacent to SNP and projected changes in rainfall patterns for East Africa under global climate scenarios may compromise the future resilience of the small mammal community in this tropical savanna ecosystem. Implications The loss of rare or specialised species from protected areas and human-modified ecosystems could be mitigated by: (1) increasing habitat complexity and maintaining specialist habitats in the agro-ecosystem; and (2) creating buffers at the boundary of protected natural ecosystems that accommodate regime shifts in response to climatic change. These measures would increase the resilience of this coupled human–natural savanna ecosystem.

Carnivore use of avocado orchards across an agricultural-wildland gradient

Wide-ranging species cannot persist in reserves alone. Consequently, there is growing interest in the conservation value of agricultural lands that separate or buffer natural areas. The value of agricultural lands for wildlife habitat and connectivity varies as a function of the crop type and landscape context, and quantifying these differences will improve our ability to manage these lands more effectively for animals. In southern California, many species are present in avocado orchards, including mammalian carnivores. We examined occupancy of avocado orchards by mammalian carnivores across agricultural-wildland gradients in southern California with motion-activated cameras. More carnivore species were detected with cameras in orchards than in wildland sites, and for bobcats and gray foxes, orchards were associated with higher occupancy rates. Our results demonstrate that agricultural lands have potential to contribute to conservation by providing habitat or facilitating landscape connectivity.

An Experimental Test of Competition among Mice, Chipmunks, and Squirrels in Deciduous Forest Fragments

Mixed hardwood forests of the northeast United States support a guild of granivorous/omnivorous rodents including gray squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis), eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus), and white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus). These species coincide geographically, co-occur locally, and consume similar food resources. Despite their idiosyncratic responses to landscape and patch variables, patch occupancy models suggest that competition may influence their respective distributions and abundances, and accordingly their influence on the rest of the forest community. Experimental studies, however, are wanting. We present the result of a large-scale experiment in which we removed white-footed mice or gray squirrels from small, isolated forest fragments in Dutchess County, New York, and added these mammals to other fragments in order to alter the abundance of these two species. We then used mark-recapture analyses to quantify the population-level and individual-level effects on resident mice, squirrels, and chipmunks. Overall, we found little evidence of competition. There were essentially no within-season numerical responses to changes in the abundance of putative competitors. Moreover, while individual-level responses (apparent survival and capture probability) did vary with competitor densities in some models, these effects were often better explained by site-specific parameters and were restricted to few of the 19 sites we studied. With only weak or nonexistent competition among these three common rodent species, we expect their patterns of habitat occupancy and population dynamics to be largely independent of one another.