Impact of minimum winter temperatures on the population dynamics of Dendroctonus frontalis

Potential Ecological Distribution of the Beetle Agrilus mali Matsumura (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in China under Three Climate Change Scenarios, with Consequences for Commercial and Wild Apple Forests

The apple jewel beetle (AJB), Agrilus mali Matsumura (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is a dangerous pest of commercial apple orchards across China, the largest apple production country in the world, and has recently become invasive in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) of northwestern China, where wild apple forests also occur. This pest poses a serious threat to apple production and wild apple forests throughout the world. Global warming is expected to change the geographical distribution of A. mali in China, but the extent of this is unknown. Based on empirical data from 1951 to 2000, a MaxEnt model was used to forecast the ecological distribution of A. mali under three different climate scenarios projected in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results showed that the most important variables were the maximum temperature of November, precipitation in January, and minimum temperatures in April. Under all climate scenarios, the forecasted suitable regions for A. mali in China will expand northward in the 2050s and 2070s. The forecasted highly suitable regions will be 1.11-1.34 times larger than they are currently, and their central distributions will be 61.57-167.59 km further north. These findings suggest that the range and damage caused by A. mali in China will increase dramatically in the future. Monitoring and management measures should be implemented urgently to protect both the commercial apple industry and wild apple resources.

Rearranging and completing the puzzle: Phylogenomic analysis of bark beetles Dendroctonus reveals new hypotheses about genus diversification

Studies carried out on bark beetles within Dendroctonus have been extensive and revealed diverse information in different areas of their natural history, taxonomy, evolution, and interactions, among others. Despite these efforts, phylogenetic hypotheses have remained obscured mainly due to limited information analyzed (taxonomic, gene sampling, or both) in studies focused on obtaining evolutionary hypotheses for this genus. With the aim of filling these gaps in the evolutionary history for Dendroctonus, we analyzed ∼1800 loci mapped to a reference genome obtained for 20 of the 21 species recognized to date, minimizing the impact of missing information and improving the assumption of orthology in a phylogenomic framework. We obtained congruent phylogenetic topologies from two phylogenomic inference strategies: loci concatenation (ML framework) and a multispecies coalescent model (MSC) through the analysis of site pattern frequencies (SNPs). Dendroctonus is composed of two major clades (A and B), each containing five and four subclades, respectively. According to our divergence dating analysis, the MRCA for Dendroctonus dates back to the early Eocene, while the MRCA for each major clade diverged in the mid-Eocene. Interestingly, most of the speciation events of extant species occurred during the Miocene, which could be correlated with the diversification of pine trees (Pinus). The MRCA for Dendroctonus inhabited large regions of North America, with all ancestors and descendants of clade A having diversified within this region. The Mexican Transition Zone is important in the diversification processes for the majority of clade A species. For clade B, we identified two important colonization events to the Old World from America: the first in the early Oligocene from the Arctic to Asia (via Beringia), and the second during the Miocene from the Arctic-Western-Alleghany region to Europe and Siberia (also via Beringia). Our genomic analyses also supported the existence of hidden structured lineages within the frontalis complex, and also that D. beckeri represent a lineage independent from D. valens, as previously suggested. The information presented here updates the knowledge concerning the diversification of a genus with remarkable ecological and economic importance.

Abundance of Dendroctonus frontalis and D. mexicanus (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) along altitudinal transects in Mexico: Implications of climatic change for forest conservation

Bark beetle infestations have historically been primary drivers of stand thinning in Mexican pine forests. However, bark beetle impacts have become increasingly extensive and intense, apparently associated with climate change. Our objective was to describe the possible association between abundance of bark beetle flying populations and the occurrence of given value intervals of temperature, precipitation and their balance, in order to have a better comprehension of the climatic space that might trigger larger insect abundances, an issue relevant in the context of the ongoing climatic change. Here, we monitored the abundance of two of the most important bark beetle species in Mexico, Dendroctonus frontalis and D. mexicanus. We sampled 147 sites using pheromone-baited funnel traps along 24 altitudinal transects in 11 Mexican states, from northwestern Chihuahua to southeastern Chiapas, from 2015 to 2017. Through mixed model analysis, we found that the optimum Mean Annual Temperatures were 17°C-20°C for D. frontalis in low-elevation pine-oak forest, while D. mexicanus had two optimal intervals: 11-13°C and 15-18°C. Higher atmospheric Vapor Pressure Deficit (≥ 1.0) was correlated with higher D. frontalis abundances, indicating that warming-amplified drought stress intensifies trees' vulnerability to beetle attack. As temperatures and drought stress increase further with projected future climatic changes, it is likely that these Dendroctonus species will increase tree damage at higher elevations. Pine forests in Mexico are an important source of livelihood for communities inhabiting those areas, so providing tools to tackle obstacles to forest growth and health posed by changing climate is imperative.

Management Implications for the Nantucket Pine Tip Moth From Temperature-Induced Shifts in Phenology and Voltinism Attributed to Climate Change

Forest insect pest phenology and infestation pressure may shift as temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, resulting in greater challenges for sustainable forest management . The Nantucket pine tip moth (NPTM) (Rhyacionia frustrana Comstock) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a native forest regeneration pest in the southeastern U.S. with multiple generations per year. Changes in NPTM voltinism may result from temperature-induced shifts in NPTM phenology. Degree-day models have been used to develop optimal spray dates (OSDs) for NPTM. The 2000 Spray Timing Model (STM), based on temperature data from 1960 to 2000, provided generation-specific 5-d OSDs to effectively time applications of contact insecticides. An updated degree-day model, the 2019 STM, is based on temperature data from 2000 to 2019 and was used to detect changes in voltinism as well as shifts in phenology and OSDs. Based on the model, increased voltinism occurred at 6 of the 28 study locations (21%). Changes in voltinism occurred in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of Georgia, U.S., with shifts from three to four or four to five generations a year, depending on location. The OSDs from the 2019 STM were compared to the 2000 STM OSDs. Over half (57%) of the OSDs differed by 5-15 d, with the majority (66%) resulting in earlier spray dates. The 2019 STM will help growers adapt NPTM control tactics to temperature-induced phenology shifts. NPTM serves as an example of temperature-induced changes attributed to climate change in a forest insect pest with important implications to forest management.

Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward-moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold-sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical-temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape-scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical-temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change-induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

Laurel Wilt: Current and Potential Impacts and Possibilities for Prevention and Management

In recent years, outbreaks of nonnative invasive insects and pathogens have caused significant levels of tree mortality and disturbance in various forest ecosystems throughout the United States. Laurel wilt, caused by the pathogen Raffaelea lauricola (T.C. Harr., Fraedrich and Aghayeva) and the primary vector, the redbay ambrosia beetle (Xyleborus glabratus Eichhoff), is a nonnative pest-disease complex first reported in the southeastern United States in 2002. Since then, it has spread across eleven southeastern states to date, killing hundreds of millions of trees in the plant family Lauraceae. Here, we examine the impacts of laurel wilt on selected vulnerable Lauraceae in the United States and discuss management methods for limiting geographic expansion and reducing impact. Although about 13 species belonging to the Lauraceae are indigenous to the United States, the highly susceptible members of the family to laurel wilt are the large tree species including redbay (Persea borbonia (L.) Spreng) and sassafras (Sassafras albidum (Nutt.) Nees), with a significant economic impact on the commercial production of avocado (Persea americana Mill.), an important species native to Central America grown in the United States. Preventing new introductions and mitigating the impact of previously introduced nonnative species are critically important to decelerate losses of forest habitat, genetic diversity, and overall ecosystem value.

Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus)

The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most important insect pest in Central European forests. Under climate change, its phenology is presumed to be changing and mass infestations becoming more likely. While several studies have investigated climate effects across a latitudinal gradient, it remains an open question how phenology will change depending on elevation and topology. Knowing how an altered climate is likely to affect bark beetle populations, particularly across diverse topographies and elevations, is essential for adaptive management. We developed a time-varying distributed delay model to predict the phenology of I. typographus. This approach has the particular advantage of capturing the variability within populations and thus representing its stage structure at any time. The model is applied for three regional climate change scenarios, A1B, A2 and RCP3PD, to the diverse topography of Switzerland, covering a large range of elevations, aspects and slopes. We found a strong negative relationship between voltinism and elevation. Under climate change, the model predicts an increasing number of generations over the whole elevational gradient, which will be more pronounced at low elevations. In contrast, the pre-shift in spring swarming is expected to be greater at higher elevations. In comparison, the general trend of faster beetle development on steep southern slopes is only of minor importance. Overall, the maximum elevation allowing a complete yearly generation will move upwards. Generally, the predicted increase in number of generations, earlier spring swarming, more aggregated swarming, together with a projected increase in drought and storm events, will result in a higher risk of mass infestations. This will increase the pressure on spruce stands particularly in the lowlands and require intensified management efforts. It calls for adapted long-term silvicultural strategies to mitigate the loss of ecosystem services such as timber production protection against rockfall and avalanches and carbon storage.

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Winter is an understudied but key period for the socioecological systems of northeastern North American forests. A growing awareness of the importance of the winter season to forest ecosystems and surrounding communities has inspired several decades of research, both across the northern forest and at other mid- and high-latitude ecosystems around the globe. Despite these efforts, we lack a synthetic understanding of how winter climate change may impact hydrological and biogeochemical processes and the social and economic activities they support. Here, we take advantage of 100 years of meteorological observations across the northern forest region of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada to develop a suite of indicators that enable a cross-cutting understanding of (1) how winter temperatures and snow cover have been changing and (2) how these shifts may impact both ecosystems and surrounding human communities. We show that cold and snow covered conditions have generally decreased over the past 100 years. These trends suggest positive outcomes for tree health as related to reduced fine root mortality and nutrient loss associated with winter frost but negative outcomes as related to the northward advancement and proliferation of forest insect pests. In addition to effects on vegetation, reductions in cold temperatures and snow cover are likely to have negative impacts on the ecology of the northern forest through impacts on water, soils, and wildlife. The overall loss of coldness and snow cover may also have negative consequences for logging and forest products, vector-borne diseases, and human health, recreation, and tourism, and cultural practices, which together represent important social and economic dimensions for the northern forest region. These findings advance our understanding of how our changing winters may transform the socioecological system of a region that has been defined by the contrasting rhythm of the seasons. Our research also identifies a trajectory of change that informs our expectations for the future as the climate continues to warm.

Climate-Triggered Insect Defoliators and Forest Fires Using Multitemporal Landsat and TerraClimate Data in NE Iran: An Application of GEOBIA TreeNet and Panel Data Analysis

Despite increasing the number of studies for mapping remote sensing insect-induced forest infestations, applying novel approaches for mapping and identifying its triggers are still developing. This study was accomplished to test the performance of Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis (GEOBIA) TreeNet for discerning insect-infested forests induced by defoliators from healthy forests using Landsat 8 OLI and ancillary data in the broadleaved mixed Hyrcanian forests. Moreover, it has studied mutual associations between the intensity of forest defoliation and the severity of forest fires under TerraClimate-derived climate hazards by analyzing panel data models within the TreeNet-derived insect-infested forest objects. The TreeNet optimal performance was obtained after building 333 trees with a sensitivity of 93.7% for detecting insect-infested objects with the contribution of the top 22 influential variables from 95 input object features. Accordingly, top image-derived features were the mean of the second principal component (PC2), the mean of the red channel derived from the gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), and the mean values of the normalized difference water index (NDWI) and the global environment monitoring index (GEMI). However, tree species type has been considered as the second rank for discriminating forest-infested objects from non-forest-infested objects. The panel data models using random effects indicated that the intensity of maximum temperatures of the current and previous years, the drought and soil-moisture deficiency of the current year, and the severity of forest fires of the previous year could significantly trigger the insect outbreaks. However, maximum temperatures were the only significant triggers of forest fires. This research proposes testing the combination of object features of Landsat 8 OLI with other data for monitoring near-real-time defoliation and pathogens in forests.

Phenological synchrony between eastern spruce budworm and its host trees increases with warmer temperatures in the boreal forest

Climate change is predicted to alter relationships between trophic levels by changing the phenology of interacting species. We tested whether synchrony between two critical phenological events, budburst of host species and larval emergence from diapause of eastern spruce budworm, increased at warmer temperatures in the boreal forest in northeastern Canada. Budburst was up to 4.6 ± 0.7 days earlier in balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days earlier in black spruce per degree increase in temperature, in naturally occurring microclimates. Larval emergence from diapause did not exhibit a similar response. Instead, larvae emerged once average ambient temperatures reached 10°C, regardless of differences in microclimate. Phenological synchrony increased with warmer microclimates, tightening the relationship between spruce budworm and its host species. Synchrony increased by up to 4.5 ± 0.7 days for balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days for black spruce per degree increase in temperature. Under a warmer climate, defoliation could potentially begin earlier in the season, in which case, damage on the primary host, balsam fir may increase. Black spruce, which escapes severe herbivory because of a 2-week delay in budburst, would become more suitable as a resource for the spruce budworm. The northern boreal forest could become more vulnerable to outbreaks in the future.

Rapid evolution of insects to global environmental change: conceptual issues and empirical gaps

Understanding how insects will respond both ecologically and evolutionarily to complex and interacting factors linked to global change is an important challenge that underpins our ability to produce better predictive models and to anticipate and manage ecosystem-scale disruption in the Anthropocene. Insects have the capacity to rapidly adapt to changing conditions via a variety of mechanisms which include both phenotypically plastic and evolutionary responses that interact in important ways. This short review comments on the current state of knowledge surrounding rapid evolution in insects and highlights conceptual and empirical gaps. Emphasis is placed on the need to consider direct and indirect community-level feedbacks via both ecological and evolutionary mechanisms when examining the consequences of global change, with particular focus on insects and their facultative and obligate symbionts.

Synchrony, Weather, and Cycles in Southern Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)

Spatial synchrony and cycles are common features of forest insect pests, but are often studied as separate phenomenon. Using time series of timber damage caused by Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) (southern pine beetle) in 10 states within the southern United States, this study examines synchrony in D. frontalis abundance, the synchronizing effects of temperature extremes, and the evidence for shared cycles among state populations. Cross-correlation and cluster analyses are used to quantify synchrony across a range of geographic distances and to identify groups of states with synchronous dynamics. Similar techniques are used to quantify spatial synchrony in temperature extremes and to examine their relationship to D. frontalis fluctuations. Cross-wavelet analysis is then used to examine pairs of time series for shared cycles. These analyses suggest there is substantial synchrony among states in D. frontalis fluctuations, and there are regional groups of states with similar dynamics. Synchrony in D. frontalis fluctuations also appears related to spatial synchrony in summer and winter temperature extremes. The cross-wavelet results suggest that D. frontalis dynamics may differ among regions and are not stationary. Significant oscillations were present in some states over certain time intervals, suggesting an endogenous feedback mechanism. Management of D. frontalis outbreaks could potentially benefit from a multistate regional approach because populations are synchronous on this level. Extreme summer temperatures are likely to become the most important synchronizing agent due to climate change.

Process-Based Models of Phenology for Plants and Animals

Phenology is a key aspect of plant and animal life strategies that determines the ability to capture seasonally variable resources. It defines the season and duration of growth and reproduction and paces ecological interactions and ecosystem functions. Phenology models have become a key component of models in agronomy, forestry, ecology, and biogeosciences. Plant and animal process-based phenology models have taken different paths that have so far not crossed. Yet, they share many features because plant and animal annual cycles also share many characteristics, from their stepwise progression, including a resting period, to their dependence on similar environmental factors. We review the strengths and shortcomings of these models and the divergences in modeling approaches for plants and animals, which are mostly due to specificities of the questions they tackle. Finally, we discuss the most promising avenues and the challenges phenology modeling needs to address in the upcoming years.

Threats to North American forests from southern pine beetle with warming winters

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to ease range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects^1-5. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change⁶. Here we present projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21^st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption of local ecosystem services⁷, shifts in forest structure⁸, and threats to native biodiversity⁹.

Cold Tolerance of Pityophthorus juglandis (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) From Northern California

Winter survivorship of insects is determined by a combination of physiological, behavioral, and microhabitat characteristics. We characterized the cold tolerance of the walnut twig beetle, Pityophthorus juglandis Blackman, a domestic alien invasive bark beetle that vectors a phytopathogenic fungus. The beetle and fungus cause thousand cankers disease in species of Juglans and Pterocarya. The disease is spreading in the United States of America (USA) and Italy. Contact thermocouple thermometry was used to measure the supercooling points of adults and larvae and lower lethal temperatures of adults from a population from northern California. Supercooling points ranged from -12.2 °C to - 25.0 °C for adults and -13.6 °C to - 23.5 °C for larvae; lower lethal temperatures of adults ranged from -14 °C to - 23 °C. We found seasonal changes in adult supercooling points in fall, winter, and spring. The supercooling point for males was 0.5 °C colder than for females over all months and 1 °C colder in the winter than in other seasons. The cold-tolerance strategy shifted in P. juglandis adults from freeze intolerance (December 2013 and January 2014) to partial freeze tolerance (February 2014). An intermediate level of cold tolerance with a plastic response to cold partially explains survival of P. juglandis outside of its native range in the southwestern USA. In addition, we characterized the relationship between minimum air temperatures and minimum phloem temperatures in two Juglans spp. in northern California and Colorado and characterized portions of the native geographic range of eastern black walnut, J. nigra L., that may be too cold currently for this insect to persist.

Climate change, transgenic corn adoption and field-evolved resistance in corn earworm

Increased temperature anomaly during the twenty-first century coincides with the proliferation of transgenic crops containing the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Berliner) (Bt) to express insecticidal Cry proteins. Increasing temperatures profoundly affect insect life histories and agricultural pest management. However, the implications of climate change on Bt crop-pest interactions and insect resistance to Bt crops remains unexamined. We analysed the relationship of temperature anomaly and Bt adoption with field-evolved resistance to Cry1Ab Bt sweet corn in a major pest, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie). Increased Bt adoption during 1996-2016 suppressed H. zea populations, but increased temperature anomaly buffers population reduction. Temperature anomaly and its interaction with elevated selection pressure from high Bt acreage probably accelerated the Bt-resistance development. Helicoverpa zea damage to corn ears, kernel area consumed, mean instars and proportion of late instars in Bt varieties increased with Bt adoption and temperature anomaly, through additive or interactive effects. Risk of Bt-resistant H. zea spreading is high given extensive Bt adoption, and the expected increase in overwintering and migration. Our study highlights the challenges posed by climate change for Bt biotechnology-based agricultural pest management, and the need to incorporate evolutionary processes affected by climate change into Bt-resistance management programmes.

Breeding matters: Natal experience influences population state-dependent host acceptance by an eruptive insect herbivore

Eruptive forest insects are highly influential agents of change in forest ecosystems, and their effects have increased with recent climate change. State-dependent life histories contribute significantly to the population dynamics of eruptive forest insect herbivores; however, the proximate mechanisms by which these species shift between states is poorly understood. Laboratory bioassays were conducted using the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) to determine the effect of maternal host selection on offspring host preferences, as they apply to population state-dependent behaviors. Female mountain pine beetles exhibited state-dependent preference for artificial host material amended with monoterpenes in the absence of other cues, such that individuals reared in high-density epidemic-state simulations rejected low monoterpene conditions, while low-density endemic-state beetles accepted low monoterpene conditions. State-specific behavior in offspring was dependent on rearing conditions, as a function of maternal host selection, and these effects were observed within one generation. Density-dependent host selection behaviors exhibited by female mountain pine beetle offspring is reinforced by context-dependent maternal effects arising from parental host selection, and in situ exposure to conspecifics. These results demonstrate potential proximate mechanisms that control population dynamics in eruptive forest insects, and will allow for more accurate predictions of continued impact and spread of these species.

Intra-Annual Variation in Responses by Flying Southern Pine Beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) to Pheromone Component endo-Brevicomin

The southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) is attracted to an aggregation pheromone that includes the multifunctional pheromone component endo-brevicomin. The effect of endo-brevicomin on attractive lures varies from strong enhancement to reduction of beetle attraction depending upon release rate, lure component spacing, and proximity of beetle infestations. Anecdotal observations have further suggested that the effects of endo-brevicomin vary during the year. We investigated this possibility under nonoutbreak conditions in southwestern Mississippi where for two-and-a-half years we monitored traps baited with frontalin and the host odor alpha-pinene either (a) alone, or with an endo-brevicomin release device either (b) located directly on the trap, or (c) displaced 6 m away. The endo-brevicomin devices in our tests increased D. frontalis catches during all times of year, and 6 m displacement of the endo-brevicomin release device from the trap did not significantly alter responses except during the spring flight peak when displacement increased catches. Our data suggest that flying D. frontalis have a stronger tendency to avoid the immediate proximity of a release point of endo-brevicomin during their springtime dispersal flight when catches are greatest. Catches of Thanasimus dubius (F.) (Coleoptera: Cleridae), a major predator of D. frontalis, were not altered by endo-brevicomin, and ratios of D. frontalis to T. dubius changed over the course of the year. We discuss the possible effects of intra-annual variation in D. frontalis response to endo-brevicomin both on beetle attack behavior and use of endo-brevicomin as a lure adjuvant in D. frontalis population monitoring.

The seesaw effect of winter temperature change on the recruitment of cotton bollworms Helicoverpa armigera through mismatched phenology

Knowing how climate change affects the population dynamics of insect pests is critical for the future of integrated pest management. Rising winter temperatures from global warming can drive increases in outbreaks of some agricultural pests. In contrast, here we propose an alternative hypothesis that both extremely cold and warm winters can mismatch the timing between the eclosion of overwintering pests and the flowering of key host plants. As host plants normally need higher effective cumulative temperatures for flowering than insects need for eclosion, changes in flowering time will be less dramatic than changes in eclosion time, leading to a mismatch of phenology on either side of the optimal winter temperature. We term this the "seesaw effect." Using a long-term dataset of the Old World cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in northern China, we tested this seesaw hypothesis by running a generalized additive model for the effects of the third generation moth in the preceding year, the winter air temperature, the number of winter days below a critical temperature and cumulative precipitation during winter on the demography of the overwintering moth. Results confirmed the existence of the seesaw effect of winter temperature change on overwintering populations. Pest management should therefore consider the indirect effect of changing crop phenology (whether due to greenhouse cultivation or to climate change) on pest outbreaks. As arthropods from mid- and high latitudes are actually living in a cooler thermal environment than their physiological optimum in contrast to species from lower latitudes, the effects of rising winter temperatures on the population dynamics of arthropods in the different latitudinal zones should be considered separately. The seesaw effect makes it more difficult to predict the average long-term population dynamics of insect pests at high latitudes due to the potential sharp changes in annual growth rates from fluctuating minimum winter temperatures.

Predicting the Impact of Temperature Change on the Future Distribution of Maize Stem Borers and Their Natural Enemies along East African Mountain Gradients Using Phenology Models

Lepidopteran stem borers are among the most important pests of maize in East Africa. The objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid Chilo partellus, the noctuid Busseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae at local scale along Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills gradients in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Temperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. The three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055) climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the AFRICLIM database. The calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Thin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. Our study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony) also played a role. Results based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two East African mountain gradients studied. This was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1) range expansion of the lowland species C. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2) increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3) disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. The predicted increase in pest activity will significantly increase maize yield losses in all agro-ecological zones across both transects but to a much greater extent in lower areas.

Incorporating carbon storage into the optimal management of forest insect pests: a case study of the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmerman) in the New Jersey Pinelands

Forest insect pest disturbance is increasing in certain areas of North America as many insect species, such as the southern pine beetle, expand their range due to a warming climate. Because insect pests are beginning to occupy forests that are managed for multiple uses and have not been managed for pests before, it is becoming increasingly important to determine how forests should be managed for pests when non-timber ecosystem services are considered in addition to traditional costs and revenues. One example of a service that is increasingly considered in forest management and that may affect forest pest management is carbon sequestration. This manuscript seeks to understand whether the incorporation of forest carbon sequestration into cost-benefit analysis of different forest pest management strategies affects the financially optimal strategy. We examine this question through a case study of the southern pine beetle (SPB) in a new area of SPB expansion, the New Jersey Pinelands National Reserve (NJPR). We utilize a forest ecology and economics model and include field data from the NJPR as well as outbreak probability statistics from previous years. We find under the majority of scenarios, incorporating forest carbon sequestration shifts the financially optimal SPB management strategy from preventative thinning toward no management or reactionary management in forest stands in New Jersey. These results contradict the current recommended treatment strategy for SPB and signify that the inclusion of multiple ecosystem services into a cost-benefit analysis may drastically alter which pest management strategy is economically optimal.

A general ecophysiological framework for modelling the impact of pests and pathogens on forest ecosystems

Forest insects and pathogens (FIPs) have enormous impacts on community dynamics, carbon storage and ecosystem services, however, ecosystem modelling of FIPs is limited due to their variability in severity and extent. We present a general framework for modelling FIP disturbances through their impacts on tree ecophysiology. Five pathways are identified as the basis for functional groupings: increases in leaf, stem and root turnover, and reductions in phloem and xylem transport. A simple ecophysiological model was used to explore the sensitivity of forest growth, mortality and ecosystem fluxes to varying outbreak severity. Across all pathways, low infection was associated with growth reduction but limited mortality. Moderate infection led to individual tree mortality, whereas high levels led to stand-level die-offs delayed over multiple years. Delayed mortality is consistent with observations and critical for capturing biophysical, biogeochemical and successional responses. This framework enables novel predictions under present and future global change scenarios.

Increasing minimum daily temperatures are associated with enhanced pesticide use in cultivated soybean along a latitudinal gradient in the mid-western United States

Assessments of climate change and food security often do not consider changes to crop production as a function of altered pest pressures. Evaluation of potential changes may be difficult, in part, because management practices are routinely utilized in situ to minimize pest injury. If so, then such practices, should, in theory, also change with climate, although this has never been quantified. Chemical (pesticide) applications remain the primary means of managing pests in industrialized countries. While a wide range of climate variables can influence chemical use, minimum daily temperature (lowest 24 h recorded temperature in a given year) can be associated with the distribution and thermal survival of many agricultural pests in temperate regions. The current study quantifies average pesticide applications since 1999 for commercial soybean grown over a 2100 km North-South latitudinal transect for seven states that varied in minimum daily temperature (1999-2013) from -28.6°C (Minnesota) to -5.1°C (Louisiana). Although soybean yields (per hectare) did not vary by state, total pesticide applications (kg of active ingredient, ai, per hectare) increased from 4.3 to 6.5 over this temperature range. Significant correlations were observed between minimum daily temperatures and kg of ai for all pesticide classes. This suggested that minimum daily temperature could serve as a proxy for pesticide application. Longer term temperature data (1977-2013) indicated greater relative increases in minimum daily temperatures for northern relative to southern states. Using these longer-term trends to determine short-term projections of pesticide use (to 2023) showed a greater comparative increase in herbicide use for soybean in northern; but a greater increase in insecticide and fungicide use for southern states in a warmer climate. Overall, these data suggest that increases in pesticide application rates may be a means to maintain soybean production in response to rising minimum daily temperatures and potential increases in pest pressures.

Cold truths: how winter drives responses of terrestrial organisms to climate change

Winter is a key driver of individual performance, community composition, and ecological interactions in terrestrial habitats. Although climate change research tends to focus on performance in the growing season, climate change is also modifying winter conditions rapidly. Changes to winter temperatures, the variability of winter conditions, and winter snow cover can interact to induce cold injury, alter energy and water balance, advance or retard phenology, and modify community interactions. Species vary in their susceptibility to these winter drivers, hampering efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. Existing frameworks for predicting the impacts of climate change do not incorporate the complexity of organismal responses to winter. Here, we synthesise organismal responses to winter climate change, and use this synthesis to build a framework to predict exposure and sensitivity to negative impacts. This framework can be used to estimate the vulnerability of species to winter climate change. We describe the importance of relationships between winter conditions and performance during the growing season in determining fitness, and demonstrate how summer and winter processes are linked. Incorporating winter into current models will require concerted effort from theoreticians and empiricists, and the expansion of current growing-season studies to incorporate winter.

Drought predisposes piñon-juniper woodlands to insect attacks and mortality

To test the hypothesis that drought predisposes trees to insect attacks, we quantified the effects of water availability on insect attacks, tree resistance mechanisms, and mortality of mature piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and one-seed juniper (Juniperus monosperma) using an experimental drought study in New Mexico, USA. The study had four replicated treatments (40 × 40 m plot/replicate): removal of 45% of ambient annual precipitation (H2 O-); irrigation to produce 125% of ambient annual precipitation (H2 O+); a drought control (C) to quantify the impact of the drought infrastructure; and ambient precipitation (A). Piñon began dying 1 yr after drought initiation, with higher mortality in the H2 O- treatment relative to other treatments. Beetles (bark/twig) were present in 92% of dead trees. Resin duct density and area were more strongly affected by treatments and more strongly associated with piñon mortality than direct measurements of resin flow. For juniper, treatments had no effect on insect resistance or attacks, but needle browning was highest in the H2 O- treatment. Our results provide strong evidence that ≥ 1 yr of severe drought predisposes piñon to insect attacks and increases mortality, whereas 3 yr of the same drought causes partial canopy loss in juniper.

Molecular evidence of facultative intraguild predation by Monochamus titillator larvae (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) on members of the southern pine beetle guild

The southern pine bark beetle guild (SPBG) is arguably the most destructive group of forest insects in the southeastern USA. This guild contains five species of bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae): Dendroctonus frontalis, Dendroctonus terebrans, Ips avulsus, Ips calligraphus, and Ips grandicollis. A diverse community of illicit receivers is attracted to pheromones emitted by the SPBG, including the woodborers Monochamus carolinensis and Monochamus titillator (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). These woodborers have been traditionally classified as resource competitors; however, laboratory assays suggest that larval M. carolinensis may be facultative intraguild predators of SPBG larvae. This study used polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based molecular gut content analyses to characterize subcortical interactions between M. titillator and members of the SPBG. The half-lives of SPBG DNA were estimated in the laboratory prior to examining these interactions in the field. A total of 271 field-collected M. titillator larvae were analyzed and 26 (9.6 %) tested positive for DNA of members of the SPBG. Of these larvae, 25 (96.2 %) tested positive for I. grandicollis and one (3.8 %) for I. calligraphus. Failure to detect D. terebrans and D. frontalis was likely due to their absence in the field. I. avulsus was present, but primers developed using adult tissues failed to amplify larval tissue. Results from this study support the hypothesis that larval Monochamus spp. are facultative intraguild predators of bark beetle larvae. Additionally, this study demonstrates the capabilities of PCR in elucidating the interactions of cryptic forest insects and provides a tool to better understand mechanisms driving southern pine beetle guild population fluctuations.

Population decrease of Scirpophaga incertulas Walker (Lepidoptera Pyralidae) under climate warming

Scirpophaga incertulas Walker is an important agricultural pest in Asia. Only few studies are available on its long-term population dynamics under climate warming. In this study, we used the linear and generalized additive models (GAMs) to analyze the historical dataset of >50 years on this pest at Xinfeng County of Jiangxi Province, China. The main objective of this study was to explore the effects of density (delayed) dependence and minimum annual temperature (MAT), which indirectly reflects climate warming, on the population dynamics of this pest. We found that both density dependence and MAT have significant influence on the annual population growth rate. The GAMs had relatively better applicability to the dataset than the linear models. Nonparametric model provided satisfactory goodness-of-fit (R² > 0.5). At Xinfeng County, the MAT had a significant effect on the annual population growth rate of S. incertulas. The annual population growth rate of S. incertulas decreased with increase in MAT. Therefore, S. incertulas population becomes smaller and smaller in Southern China due to climate warming. The current study has two contributions: (1) providing a suitable method for predicting the annual population growth rate of S. incertulas, and (2) demonstrating that climate warming could decrease the S. incertulas population.

Cold hardiness of Helicoverpa zea (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) pupae

An insect's cold hardiness affects its potential to overwinter and outbreak in different geographic regions. In this study, we characterized the response of Helicoverpa zea (Boddie) pupae to low temperatures by using controlled laboratory measurements of supercooling point (SCP), lower lethal temperature (LT(50)), and lower lethal time (LLTime). The impact of diapause, acclimation, and sex on the cold hardiness of the pupae also were evaluated. Sex did not significantly affect the SCP, LT(50), or LLTime. However, the mean SCP of diapausing pupae (-19.3°C) was significantly lower than nondiapausing pupae (-16.4°C). Acclimation of nondiapausing pupae to constant temperatures from 10 to 20°C before supercooling also produced a significantly lower SCP than nondiapausing pupae held at 25°C. The LT(50)s of nondiapausing and diapausing were not significantly different, but confirmed that H. zea pupae are chill-intolerant because these lethal temperatures are warmer than the corresponding mean SCPs. Diapausing pupae survived longer than nondiapausing pupae at the same, constant, cold temperatures, a finding consistent with the SCP results. Both of these results suggest enhanced cold hardiness in diapausing pupae. When laboratory results were compared with field temperatures and observed distributions of H. zea in the contiguous United States, the laboratory results corroborated what is currently perceived to be the northern overwintering limit of H. zea; approximately the 40(th) parallel. Moreover, our research showed that areas north of this limit are lethal to overwintering pupae not because of low temperature extremes, but rather the length of time spent at near-zero temperatures.

Genetic heterogeneity in a cyclical forest pest, the southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis, is differentiated into east and west groups in the southeastern United States

The southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmerman (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is an economically important pest species throughout the southeastern United States, Arizona, Mexico, and Central America. Previous research identified population structure among widely distant locations, yet failed to detect population structure among national forests in the state of Mississippi. This study uses microsatellite variation throughout the southeastern United States to compare the southern pine beetle's pattern of population structure to phylogeographic patterns in the region, and to provide information about dispersal. Bayesian clustering identified east and west genetic groups spanning multiple states. The east group had lower heterozygosity, possibly indicating greater habitat fragmentation or a more recent colonization. Significant genetic differentiation (θ(ST) = 0.01, p < 0.0001) followed an isolation-by-distance pattern (r = 0.39, p < 0.001) among samples, and a hierarchical AMOVA indicated slightly more differentiation occurred between multi-state groups. The observed population structure matches a previously identified phylogeographic pattern, division of groups along the Appalachian Mountain/Apalachicola River axis. Our results indicate that the species likely occurs as a large, stable metapopulation with considerable gene flow among subpopulations. Also, the relatively low magnitude of genetic differentiation among samples suggests that southern pine beetles may respond similarly to management across their range.

Modeling the impacts of two bark beetle species under a warming climate in the southwestern USA: Ecological and economic consequences

Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1-3+ under historical climate, an increase of 2-4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3-5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from $7.75/ha (NM) to $95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and $47.96/ha (NM) to $174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions. Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires, the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming.