Estimating interaction strengths in nature: experimental support for an observational approach

Impacts of Birds vs. Invertebrate Predators on Rocky Intertidal Community Structure

Most studies of species interactions in rocky intertidal communities focus on invertebrate predators and herbivores interacting with sessile invertebrates and macrophytes. However, shorebirds are usually a conspicuous presence on rocky shores and eat sessile and mobile invertebrate prey, often including invertebrate predators and herbivores. Inspired by classic studies of strong bird predation effects in rocky intertidal habitats in Washington state (USA) and South Africa, I tested the effects of bird and invertebrate (sea stars, whelks) predation at multiple sites, wave exposures, and zones on the central Oregon coast from spring 1996 to fall 1997. To gain insight into the effects of birds relative to the effects of invertebrate predators, I used a crossed design, with bird exclusions (present and absent) and invertebrate predator removal (present and reduced). Compared to Washington state and South Africa, birds had little effect on the abundance of sessile or mobile prey in wave-exposed mid, wave-exposed low, and wave-protected mid zones at 2-4 sites. I suggest that differences between Oregon results and those in Washington and South Africa were driven by differences in bird abundance associated with whether the study site had resident colonies of shorebirds (primarily gulls, crows, and oystercatchers). That is, offshore islands often have resident breeding colonies such as in the Washington and South African studies, while sites in this study were all on the mainland where gulls were mostly transient visitors, while resident oystercatchers were usually limited to one or two pairs per site. Comparison with other marine and terrestrial experimental tests suggests that top-down effects of birds often vary in strength, and thus, future investigations should seek to understand the factors that underlie this variation.

A global synthesis of predation on bivalves

Predation is a dominant structuring force in ecological communities. In aquatic environments, predation on bivalves has long been an important focal interaction for ecological study because bivalves have central roles as ecosystem engineers, basal components of food webs, and commercial commodities. Studies of bivalves are common, not only because of bivalves' central roles, but also due to the relative ease of studying predatory effects on this taxonomic group. To understand patterns in the interactions of bivalves and their predators we synthesised data from 52 years of peer-reviewed studies on bivalve predation. Using a systematic search, we compiled 1334 studies from 75 countries, comprising 61 bivalve families (N = 2259), dominated by Mytilidae (29% of bivalves), Veneridae (14%), Ostreidae (8%), Unionidae (7%), and Dreissenidae and Tellinidae (6% each). A total of 2036 predators were studied, with crustaceans the most studied predator group (34% of predators), followed by fishes (24%), molluscs (17%), echinoderms (10%) and birds (6%). The majority of studies (86%) were conducted in marine systems, in part driven by the high commercial value of marine bivalves. Studies in freshwater ecosystems were dominated by non-native bivalves and non-native predator species, which probably reflects the important role of biological invasions affecting freshwater biodiversity. In fact, while 81% of the studied marine bivalve species were native, only 50% of the freshwater species were native to the system. In terms of approach, most studies used predation trials, visual analysis of digested contents and exclusion experiments to assess the effects of predation. These studies reflect that many factors influence bivalve predation depending on the species studied, including (i) species traits (e.g. behaviour, morphology, defence mechanisms), (ii) other biotic interactions (e.g. presence of competitors, parasites or diseases), and (iii) environmental context (e.g. temperature, current velocity, beach exposure, habitat complexity). There is a lack of research on the effects of bivalve predation at the population and community and ecosystem levels (only 7% and 0.5% of studies respectively examined impacts at these levels). At the population level, the available studies demonstrate that predation can decrease bivalve density through consumption or the reduction of recruitment. At the community and ecosystem level, predation can trigger effects that cascade through trophic levels or effects that alter the ecological functions bivalves perform. Given the conservation and commercial importance of many bivalve species, studies of predation should be pursued in the context of global change, particularly climate change, acidification and biological invasions.

High variation in handling times confers 35-year stability to predator feeding rates despite community change

Historical resurveys of ecological communities are important for placing the structure of modern ecosystems in context. Rarely, however, are snapshot surveys alone sufficient for providing direct insight into the rates of the ecological processes underlying community functioning, either now or in the past. In this study, I used a statistically reasoned observational approach to estimate the feeding rates of a New Zealand intertidal predator, Haustrum haustorium, using diet surveys performed at several sites by Robert Paine in 1968-1969 and by me in 2004. Comparisons between time periods reveal a remarkable consistency in the predator's prey-specific feeding rates, which contrasts with the changes I observed in prey abundances, the predator's body-size distribution, and the prey's proportional contributions to the predator's apparent diet. Although these and additional changes in the predator's per-capita attack rates seem to show adaptive changes in its prey preferences, they do not. Rather, feeding-rate stability is an inherently statistical consequence of the predator's high among-prey variation in handling times which determine the length of time that feeding events will remain detectable to observers performing diet surveys. Though understudied, similarly high among-prey variation in handling (or digestion) times is evident in many predator species throughout the animal kingdom. The resultant disconnect between a predator's apparent diet and its actual feeding rates suggests that much of the temporal, biogeographic, and seemingly context-dependent variation that is often perceived in community structure, predator diets, and food-web topology may be of less functional consequence than assumed. Qualitative changes in ecological pattern need not represent qualitative changes in ecological process.

Predator feeding rates may often be unsaturated under typical prey densities

Predator feeding rates (described by their functional response) must saturate at high prey densities. Although thousands of manipulative functional response experiments show feeding rate saturation at high densities under controlled conditions, it remains unclear how saturated feeding rates are at natural prey densities. The general degree of feeding rate saturation has important implications for the processes determining feeding rates and how they respond to changes in prey density. To address this, we linked two databases-one of functional response parameters and one on mass-abundance scaling-through prey mass to calculate a feeding rate saturation index. We find that: (1) feeding rates may commonly be unsaturated and (2) the degree of saturation varies with predator and prey taxonomic identities and body sizes, habitat, interaction dimension and temperature. These results reshape our conceptualisation of predator-prey interactions in nature and suggest new research on the ecological and evolutionary implications of unsaturated feeding rates.

Theory of temperature-dependent consumer-resource interactions

Changes in temperature affect consumer-resource interactions, which underpin the functioning of ecosystems. However, existing studies report contrasting predictions regarding the impacts of warming on biological rates and community dynamics. To improve prediction accuracy and comparability, we develop an approach that combines sensitivity analysis and aggregate parameters. The former determines which biological parameters impact the community most strongly. The use of aggregate parameters (i.e., maximal energetic efficiency, ρ, and interaction strength, κ), that combine multiple biological parameters, increases explanatory power and reduces the complexity of theoretical analyses. We illustrate the approach using empirically derived thermal dependence curves of biological rates and applying it to consumer-resource biomass ratio and community stability. Based on our analyses, we generate four predictions: (1) resource growth rate regulates biomass distributions at mild temperatures, (2) interaction strength alone determines the thermal boundaries of the community, (3) warming destabilises dynamics at low and mild temperatures only and (4) interactions strength must decrease faster than maximal energetic efficiency for warming to stabilise dynamics. We argue for the potential benefits of directly working with the aggregate parameters to increase the accuracy of predictions on warming impacts on food webs and promote cross-system comparisons.

Derivation of Predator Functional Responses Using a Mechanistic Approach in a Natural System

The functional response is at the core of any predator-prey interactions as it establishes the link between trophic levels. The use of inaccurate functional response can profoundly affect the outcomes of population and community models. Yet most functional responses are evaluated using phenomenological models which often fail to discriminate among functional response shapes and cannot identify the proximate mechanisms regulating predator acquisition rates. Using a combination of behavioral, demographic, and experimental data collected over 20 years, we develop a mechanistic model based on species traits and behavior to assess the functional response of a generalist mammalian predator, the arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), to various tundra prey species (lemmings and the nests of geese, passerines, and sandpipers). Predator acquisition rates derived from the mechanistic model were consistent with field observations. Although acquisition rates slightly decrease at high goose nest and lemming densities, none of our simulations resulted in a saturating response in all prey species. Our results highlight the importance of predator searching components in predator-prey interactions, especially predator speed, while predator acquisition rates were not limited by handling processes. By combining theory with field observations, our study provides support that the predator acquisition rate is not systematically limited at the highest prey densities observed in a natural system. Our study also illustrates how mechanistic models based on empirical estimates of the main components of predation can generate functional response shapes specific to the range of prey densities observed in the wild. Such models are needed to fully untangle proximate drivers of predator-prey population dynamics and to improve our understanding of predator-mediated interactions in natural communities.

Pushing the switch: functional responses and prey switching by invasive lionfish may mediate their ecological impact

Biodiversity is declining on a global scale and the spread of invasive alien species (IAS) is a major driver, particularly through predatory impacts. Thus, effective means of assessing and predicting the consequences of IAS predation on native prey population stability remains a vital goal for conservation. Here, we applied two classic ecological concepts, consumer functional response (FR) and prey switching, to predict and understand the ecological impacts of juveniles of the lionfish (Pterois volitans), a notorious and widespread marine invader. Functional responses and prey switching propensities were quantified towards three representative prey species: Artemia salina, Palaemonetes varians, and Gammarus oceanicus. Lionfish exhibited potentially destabilising Type II FRs towards individual prey species, owing to high consumption rates at low prey densities, whilst FR magnitudes differed among prey species. Functional response attack rates (a) were highest, and handling times (h) lowest, towards A. salina, followed by P. varians and then G. oceanicus. Maximum feeding rates (1/h) and functional response ratios (FRR; a/h) also followed this impact gradient for the three prey species. Lionfish, however, displayed a potentially population stabilising prey switching propensity (i.e. frequency-dependent predation) when multiple prey species were presented simultaneously, where disproportionately less of rare prey, and more of abundant prey, were consumed. Whilst FR and FRR magnitudes indicate marked per capita lionfish predatory impacts towards prey species, a strong prey switching propensity may reduce in-field impacts by offering low density prey refuge in biodiverse communities. Our results thus corroborate field patterns documenting variable impacts of lionfish, with prey extirpations less likely in diverse communities owing to frequency-dependent predation.

Hidden layers of density dependence in consumer feeding rates

Functional responses relate a consumer's feeding rates to variation in its abiotic and biotic environment, providing insight into consumer behaviour and fitness, and underpinning population and food-web dynamics. Despite their broad relevance and long-standing history, we show here that the types of density dependence found in classic resource- and consumer-dependent functional-response models equate to strong and often untenable assumptions about the independence of processes underlying feeding rates. We first demonstrate mathematically how to quantify non-independence between feeding and consumer interference and between feeding on multiple resources. We then analyse two large collections of functional-response data sets to show that non-independence is pervasive and borne out in previously hidden forms of density dependence. Our results provide a new lens through which to view variation in consumer feeding rates and disentangle the biological underpinnings of species interactions in multi-species contexts.

Systematic bias in studies of consumer functional responses

Functional responses are a cornerstone to our understanding of consumer-resource interactions, so how to best describe them using models has been actively debated. Here we focus on the consumer dependence of functional responses to evidence systematic bias in the statistical comparison of functional-response models and the estimation of their parameters. Both forms of bias are universal to nonlinear models (irrespective of consumer dependence) and are rooted in a lack of sufficient replication. Using a large compilation of published datasets, we show that - due to the prevalence of low sample size studies - neither the overall frequency by which alternative models achieve top rank nor the frequency distribution of parameter point estimates should be treated as providing insight into the general form or central tendency of consumer interference. We call for renewed clarity in the varied purposes that motivate the study of functional responses, purposes that can compete with each other in dictating the design, analysis and interpretation of functional-response experiments.

A potential role for rare species in ecosystem dynamics

The ecological importance of common species for many ecosystem processes and functions is unquestionably due to their high abundance. Yet, the importance of rare species is much less understood. Here we take a theoretical approach, exposing dynamical models of ecological networks to small perturbations, to explore the dynamical importance of rare and common species. We find that both species types contribute to the recovery of communities following generic perturbations (i.e. perturbations affecting all species). Yet, when perturbations are selective (i.e. affects only one species), perturbations to rare species have the most pronounced effect on community stability. We show that this is due to the strong indirect effects induced by perturbations to rare species. Because indirect effects typically set in at longer timescales, our results indicate that the importance of rare species may be easily overlooked and thus underrated. Hence, our study provides a potential ecological motive for the management and protection of rare species.

Food-web interaction strength distributions are conserved by greater variation between than within predator-prey pairs

Species interactions in food webs are usually recognized as dynamic, varying across species, space, and time because of biotic and abiotic drivers. Yet food webs also show emergent properties that appear consistent, such as a skewed frequency distribution of interaction strengths (many weak, few strong). Reconciling these two properties requires an understanding of the variation in pairwise interaction strengths and its underlying mechanisms. We estimated stream sculpin feeding rates in three seasons at nine sites in Oregon to examine variation in trophic interaction strengths both across and within predator-prey pairs. Predator and prey densities, prey body mass, and abiotic factors were considered as putative drivers of within-pair variation over space and time. We hypothesized that consistently skewed interaction strength distributions could result if individual interaction strengths show relatively little variation, or alternatively, if interaction strengths vary but shift in ways that conserve their overall frequency distribution. Feeding rate distributions remained consistently and positively skewed across all sites and seasons. The mean coefficient of variation in feeding rates within each of 25 focal species pairs across surveys was less than half the mean coefficient of variation seen across species pairs within a survey. The rank order of feeding rates also remained conserved across streams, seasons and individual surveys. On average, feeding rates on each prey taxon nonetheless varied by a hundredfold, with some feeding rates showing more variation in space and others in time. In general, feeding rates increased with prey density and decreased with high stream flows and low water temperatures, although for nearly half of all species pairs, factors other than prey density explained the most variation. Our findings show that although individual interaction strengths exhibit considerable variation in space and time, they can nonetheless remain relatively consistent, and thus predictable, compared to the even larger variation that occurs across species pairs. These results highlight how the ecological scale of inference can strongly shape conclusions about interaction strength consistency and help reconcile how the skewed nature of interaction strength distributions can persist in highly dynamic food webs.

Conditions for Eltonian Pyramids in Lotka-Volterra Food Chains

In ecological communities consumers (excluding parasites and parasitoids) are in general larger and less numerous than their resource. This results in a well-known observation known as 'Eltonian pyramids' or the 'pyramid of numbers', and metabolic arguments suggest that this pattern is independent of the number of trophic levels in a system. At the same time, Lotka-Volterra (LV) consumer-resource models are a frequently used tool to study many questions in community ecology, but their capacity to produce Eltonian pyramids has not been formally analysed. Here, I address this knowledge gap by investigating if and when LV food chain models give rise to Eltonian pyramids. I show that Eltonian pyramids are difficult to reproduce without density-dependent mortality in the consumers, unless biologically plausible relationships between mortality rate and interaction strength are taken into account.

Individual variation in functional response parameters is explained by body size but not by behavioural types in a poeciliid fish

Functional responses are per-capita feeding rate models whose parameters often scale with individual body size but the parameters may also be further influenced by behavioural traits consistently differing among individuals, i.e. behavioural types or animal personalities. Behavioural types may intrinsically lead to lower feeding rates when consistently shy, inactive and easily stressed individuals cannot identify or respond to risk-free environments or need less food due to lower metabolic rates linked to behaviour. To test how much variation in functional response parameters is explained by body size and how much by behavioural types, we estimated attack rate and handling time individually for differently sized female least killifish (Heterandria formosa) and repeatedly measured behavioural traits for each individual. We found that individual fish varied substantially in their attack rate and in their handling time. Behavioural traits were stable over time and varied consistently among individuals along two distinct personality axes. The individual variation in functional responses was explained solely by body size, and contrary to our expectations, not additionally by the existing behavioural types in exploration activity and coping style. While behavioural trait-dependent functional responses may offer a route to the understanding of the food web level consequences of behavioural types, our study is so far only the second one on this topic. Importantly, our results indicate in contrast to that previous study that behavioural types do not per se affect individual functional responses assessed in the absence of external biotic stressors.

Species fluctuations sustained by a cyclic succession at the edge of chaos

Although mathematical models and laboratory experiments have shown that species interactions can generate chaos, field evidence of chaos in natural ecosystems is rare. We report on a pristine rocky intertidal community located in one of the world's oldest marine reserves that has displayed a complex cyclic succession for more than 20 y. Bare rock was colonized by barnacles and crustose algae, they were overgrown by mussels, and the subsequent detachment of the mussels returned bare rock again. These processes generated irregular species fluctuations, such that the species coexisted over many generations without ever approaching a stable equilibrium state. Analysis of the species fluctuations revealed a dominant periodicity of about 2 y, a global Lyapunov exponent statistically indistinguishable from zero, and local Lyapunov exponents that alternated systematically between negative and positive values. This pattern indicates that the community moved back and forth between stabilizing and chaotic dynamics during the cyclic succession. The results are supported by a patch-occupancy model predicting similar patterns when the species interactions were exposed to seasonal variation. Our findings show that natural ecosystems can sustain continued changes in species abundances and that seasonal forcing may push these nonequilibrium dynamics to the edge of chaos.

Trophic omnivory across a productivity gradient: intraguild predation theory and the structure and strength of species interactions

Intraguild predation theory centres on two predictions: (i) for an omnivore and an intermediate predator (IG-prey) to coexist on shared resources, the IG-prey must be the superior resource competitor, and (ii) increasing resource productivity causes the IG-prey's equilibrium abundance to decline. I tested these predictions with a series of species-rich food webs along New Zealand's rocky shores, focusing on two predatory whelks, Haustrum haustorium, a trophic omnivore, and Haustrum scobina, the IG-prey. In contrast to theory, the IG-prey's abundance increased with productivity. Furthermore, feeding rates and allometric considerations indicate a competitive advantage for the omnivore when non-shared prey are considered, despite the IG-prey's superiority for shared prey. Nevertheless, clear and regular cross-gradient changes in network structure and interaction strengths were observed that challenge the assumptions of current theory. These insights suggest that the consideration of consumer-dependent functional responses, non-equilibrium dynamics, the dynamic nature of prey choice and non-trophic interactions among basal prey will be fruitful avenues for theoretical development.

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (-25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

Merging resource availability with isotope mixing models: the role of neutral interaction assumptions

BACKGROUND

Bayesian mixing models have allowed for the inclusion of uncertainty and prior information in the analysis of trophic interactions using stable isotopes. Formulating prior distributions is relatively straightforward when incorporating dietary data. However, the use of data that are related, but not directly proportional, to diet (such as prey availability data) is often problematic because such information is not necessarily predictive of diet, and the information required to build a reliable prior distribution for all prey species is often unavailable. Omitting prey availability data impacts the estimation of a predator's diet and introduces the strong assumption of consumer ultrageneralism (where all prey are consumed in equal proportions), particularly when multiple prey have similar isotope values.

METHODOLOGY

We develop a procedure to incorporate prey availability data into bayesian mixing models conditional on the similarity of isotope values between two prey. If a pair of prey have similar isotope values (resulting in highly uncertain mixing model results), our model increases the weight of availability data in estimating the contribution of prey to a predator's diet. We test the utility of this method in an intertidal community against independently measured feeding rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that our weighting procedure increases the accuracy by which consumer diets can be inferred in situations where multiple prey have similar isotope values. This suggests that the exchange of formalism for predictive power is merited, particularly when the relationship between prey availability and a predator's diet cannot be assumed for all species in a system.