Impact of HIV infection on mortality and accuracy of AIDS reporting on death certificates

A multimorbidity model for estimating health outcomes from the syndemic of injection drug use and associated infections in the United States

BACKGROUND

Fatal drug overdoses and serious injection-related infections are rising in the US. Multiple concurrent infections in people who inject drugs (PWID) exacerbate poor health outcomes, but little is known about how the synergy among infections compounds clinical outcomes and costs. Injection drug use (IDU) converges multiple epidemics into a syndemic in the US, including opioid use and HIV. Estimated rates of new injection-related infections in the US are limited due to widely varying estimates of the number of PWID in the US, and in the absence of clinical trials and nationally representative longitudinal observational studies of PWID, simulation models provide important insights to policymakers for informed decisions.

METHODS

We developed and validated a MultimorbiditY model to Reduce Infections Associated with Drug use (MYRIAD). This microsimulation model of drug use and associated infections (HIV, hepatitis C virus [HCV], and severe bacterial infections) uses inputs derived from published data to estimate national level trends in the US. We used Latin hypercube sampling to calibrate model output against published data from 2015 to 2019 for fatal opioid overdose rates. We internally validated the model for HIV and HCV incidence and bacterial infection hospitalization rates among PWID. We identified best fitting parameter sets that met pre-established goodness-of-fit targets using the Pearson's chi-square test. We externally validated the model by comparing model output to published fatal opioid overdose rates from 2020.

RESULTS

Out of 100 sample parameter sets for opioid use, the model produced 3 sets with well-fitting results to key calibration targets for fatal opioid overdose rates with Pearson's chi-square test ranging from 1.56E-5 to 2.65E-5, and 2 sets that met validation targets. The model produced well-fitting results within validation targets for HIV and HCV incidence and serious bacterial infection hospitalization rates. From 2015 to 2019, the model estimated 120,000 injection-related overdose deaths, 17,000 new HIV infections, and 144,000 new HCV infections among PWID.

CONCLUSIONS

This multimorbidity microsimulation model, populated with data from national surveillance data and published literature, accurately replicated fatal opioid overdose, incidence of HIV and HCV, and serious bacterial infections hospitalization rates. The MYRIAD model of IDU could be an important tool to assess clinical and economic outcomes related to IDU behavior and infections with serious morbidity and mortality for PWID.

Sensitivity and Specificity of the National Death Index for Multiple Causes of Death in People With HIV

OBJECTIVES

Inaccuracies in cause-of-death information in death certificates can reduce the validity of national death statistics and result in poor targeting of resources to reduce morbidity and mortality in people with HIV. Our objective was to measure the sensitivity, specificity, and agreement between multiple causes of deaths from death certificates obtained from the National Death Index (NDI) and causes determined by expert physician review.

METHODS

Physician specialists determined the cause of death using information collected from the medical records of 50 randomly selected HIV-infected people who died in San Francisco from July 1, 2016, through May 31, 2017. Using expert review as the gold standard, we measured sensitivity, specificity, and agreement.

RESULTS

The NDI had a sensitivity of 53.9% and a specificity of 66.7% for HIV deaths. The NDI had a moderate sensitivity for non-AIDS-related infectious diseases and non-AIDS-related cancers (70.6% and 75.0%, respectively) and high specificity for these causes (100.0% and 94.7%, respectively). The NDI had low sensitivity and high specificity for substance abuse (27.3% and 100.0%, respectively), heart disease (58.3% and 86.8%, respectively), hepatitis B/C (33.3% and 97.7%, respectively), and mental illness (50.0% and 97.8%, respectively). The measure of agreement between expert review and the NDI was lowest for HIV (κ = 0.20); moderate for heart disease (κ = 0.45) and hepatitis B/C (κ = 0.40); high for non-AIDS-related infectious diseases (κ = 0.76) and non-AIDS-related cancers (κ = 0.72); and low for all other causes of death (κ < 0.35).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support education and training of health care providers to improve the accuracy of cause-of-death information on death certificates.

HIV Care and Viral Suppression During the Last Year of Life: A Comparison of HIV-Infected Persons Who Died of HIV-Attributable Causes With Persons Who Died of Other Causes in 2012 in 13 US Jurisdictions

BACKGROUND

Little information is available about care before death among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons who die of HIV infection, compared with those who die of other causes.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of our study was to compare HIV care and outcome before death among persons with HIV who died of HIV-attributable versus other causes.

METHODS

We used National HIV Surveillance System data on CD4 T-lymphocyte counts and viral loads within 12 months before death in 2012, as well as on underlying cause of death. Deaths were classified as "HIV-attributable" if the reported underlying cause was HIV infection, an AIDS-defining disease, or immunodeficiency and as attributable to "other causes" if the cause was anything else. Persons were classified as "in continuous care" if they had ≥2 CD4 or viral load test results ≥3 months apart in those 12 months and as having "viral suppression" if their last viral load was <200 copies/mL.

RESULTS

Among persons dying of HIV-attributable or other causes, respectively, 65.28% (2104/3223) and 30.88% (1041/3371) met AIDS criteria within 12 months before death, and 33.76% (1088/3223) and 50.96% (1718/3371) had viral suppression. The percentage of persons who received ≥2 tests ≥3 months apart did not differ by cause of death. Prevalence of viral suppression for persons who ever had AIDS was lower among those who died of HIV but did not differ by cause for those who never had AIDS.

CONCLUSIONS

The lower prevalence of viral suppression among persons who died of HIV than among those who died of other causes implies a need to improve viral suppression strategies to reduce mortality due to HIV infection.

Care and viral suppression during the last year of life among persons with HIV who died in 2012, 18 US jurisdictions

Death due to HIV remains a leading cause of death among some US populations, yet little is known about HIV care before death. We used data from the National HIV Surveillance System to determine disease stage and care within 12 months prior to death among persons infected with HIV who died in 2012. Persons were considered to be in care within 12 months before death if they had ≥1 CD4 or viral load test results, and in continuous care if they had ≥2 CD4 or viral load test results at least 3 months apart. Viral suppression (viral load <200 copies/mL) was based on the most recent viral load test result in the 12 months before death. Among 7348 persons infected with HIV who died in 2012, 47.1% had late stage disease (AIDS) within 12 months before death. Overall, 85.7% had ≥1 test result, 64.3% had ≥2 tests at least 3 months apart, and 41.6% had a suppressed viral load. While blacks and Hispanics/Latinos had higher percentages of continuous care compared with whites, they had lower percentages of viral suppression and higher percentages with late stage disease. Viral suppression was higher among older persons. The majority had been diagnosed with HIV more than 5 years before death (86.3%). Although the majority of persons infected with HIV who died in 2012 had been diagnosed many years before death, almost half had late stage disease, and there were disparities in late stage disease and viral suppression by race/ethnicity and age.

Completeness of HIV reporting on death certificates for Floridians reported with HIV infection, 2000-2011

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) mortality is used as a key measure to monitor the impact of HIV throughout the world. It is important that HIV be correctly recorded on death certificates so that the burden of HIV mortality can be tracked accurately. The objective of this study was to determine the extent of failure to correctly report HIV on death certificates and examine patterns of incompleteness by demographic factors. Causes of death on death certificates of people infected with HIV reported to the Florida HIV surveillance system 2000-2011 were analyzed to determine the proportion without mention of HIV who had an underlying cause of death suggestive of HIV based on World Health Organization recommendations. Of the 11,989 deaths, 8089 (67.5%) had an HIV code (B20-B24, R75) as any of the causes of death, 3091 (25.8%) had no mention of HIV and the underlying cause was not suggestive of HIV, and 809 (6.7%) had no mention of HIV but the underlying cause was suggestive of HIV. Therefore, 9.1% (809/8898) of probable HIV-related deaths had no mention of HIV on the death certificate. Dying within 1 month of HIV diagnosis was the factor most strongly associated with no mention of HIV when the underlying cause was suggestive of HIV on the death certificate. The results suggest that HIV mortality using only vital records may underestimate actual HIV mortality by approximately 9%. Efforts to reduce incompleteness of reporting of HIV on death certificates could improve HIV-related mortality estimates.

Trends, productivity losses, and associated medical conditions among toxoplasmosis deaths in the United States, 2000-2010

Few studies have quantified toxoplasmosis mortality, associated medical conditions, and productivity losses in the United States. We examined national multiple cause of death data and estimated productivity losses caused by toxoplasmosis during 2000-2010. A matched case-control analysis examined associations between comorbid medical conditions and toxoplasmosis deaths. In total, 789 toxoplasmosis deaths were identified during the 11-year study period. Blacks and Hispanics had the highest toxoplasmosis mortality compared with whites. Several medical conditions were associated with toxoplasmosis deaths, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), lymphoma, leukemia, and connective tissue disorders. The number of toxoplasmosis deaths with an HIV codiagnosis declined from 2000 to 2010; the numbers without such a codiagnosis remained static. Cumulative disease-related productivity losses for the 11-year period were nearly $815 million. Although toxoplasmosis mortality has declined in the last decade, the infection remains costly and is an important cause of preventable death among non-HIV subgroups.

Rural AIDS diagnoses in Florida: changing demographics and factors associated with survival

PURPOSE

To compare demographic characteristics and predictors of survival of rural residents diagnosed with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) with those of urban residents.

METHODS

Florida surveillance data for people diagnosed with AIDS during 1993-2007 were merged with 2000 Census data using ZIP code tabulation areas (ZCTAs). Rural status was classified based on the ZCTA's rural-urban commuting area classification. Survival rates were compared between rural and urban areas using survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models controlling for demographic, clinical, and area-level socioeconomic and health care access factors.

FINDINGS

Of the 73,590 people diagnosed with AIDS, 1,991 (2.7%) resided in rural areas. People in the most recent rural cohorts were more likely than those in earlier cohorts to be female, non-Hispanic black, older, and have a reported transmission mode of heterosexual sex. There were no statistically significant differences in the 3-, 5-, or 10-year survival rates between rural and urban residents. Older age at the time of diagnosis, diagnosis during the 1993-1995 period, other/unknown transmission mode, and lower CD4 count/percent categories were associated with lower survival in both rural and urban areas. In urban areas only, being non-Hispanic black or Hispanic, being US born, more poverty, less community social support, and lower physician density were also associated with lower survival.

CONCLUSIONS

In rural Florida, the demographic characteristics of people diagnosed with AIDS have been changing, which may necessitate modifications in the delivery of AIDS-related services. Rural residents diagnosed with AIDS did not have a significant survival disadvantage relative to urban residents.

Community poverty and trends in racial/ethnic survival disparities among people diagnosed with AIDS in Florida, 1993-2004

OBJECTIVES

We described the racial/ethnic disparities in survival among people diagnosed with AIDS in Florida from 1993 to 2004, as the availability of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) became widespread. We determined whether these disparities decreased after controlling for measures of community-level socioeconomic status.

METHODS

We compared survival from all causes between non-Hispanic Blacks and non-Hispanic Whites vis-a-vis survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models controlling for demographic, clinical, and area-level poverty factors.

RESULTS

Racial/ethnic disparities in survival peaked for those diagnosed during the early implementation of HAART (1996-1998) with a Black-to-White hazard ratio (HR) of 1.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.62, 1.83) for males and 1.40 (95% CI = 1.24, 1.59) for females. These HRs declined significantly to 1.48 (95% CI = 1.35, 1.64) for males and nonsignificantly to 1.25 (95% CI = 1.05, 1.48) for females in the 2002 to 2004 diagnosis cohort. Disparities decreased significantly for males but not females when controlling for baseline demographic factors and CD4 count and percentage, and became nonsignificant in the 2002 to 2004 cohort after controlling for area poverty.

CONCLUSIONS

Area poverty appears to play a role in racial/ethnic disparities even after controlling for demographic factors and CD4 count and percentage.

Influenza-related mortality among adults aged 25-54 years with AIDS in South Africa and the United States of America

BACKGROUND

Data are limited on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated influenza burden in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We compared influenza-related mortality in adults with AIDS in South Africa and the United States in the pre-HAART era and evaluated mortality trends after HAART introduction in the United States.

METHODS

Monthly all-cause and pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality rates were compiled for adults with AIDS aged 25-54 years in South Africa (1998-2005) and the United States (pre-HAART era, 1987-1994; HAART era, 1997-2005). We estimated influenza-related deaths as excess mortality above a model baseline during influenza epidemic periods. Influenza-related mortality rates in adults with AIDS were compared with rates for age peers in the general population and adults ≥65 years old.

RESULTS

In the United States before HAART, influenza-related mortality rates in adults with AIDS were 150 (95% confidence interval [CI], 49-460) and 208 (95% CI, 74-583) times greater than in the general population for all-cause and P&I deaths, respectively, and 2.5 (95% CI, 0.9-7.2) and 4.1 (95% CI, 1.4-13) times higher than in elderly adults. After HAART introduction , influenza-related mortality in adults with AIDS dropped 3-6-fold but remained elevated compared with the general population (all-cause relative risk [RR], 44 [95% CI, 16-121]); P&I RR, 73 [95% CI, 47-113]). Influenza-related mortality in South African adults with AIDS in recent years was similar to that in the United States in the pre-HAART era.

CONCLUSIONS

Adults with AIDS experience substantially elevated influenza-associated mortality, which declines with widespread HAART introduction but does not disappear. These data support increased access to HAART and influenza vaccination for HIV-infected adults.

Patterns, trends and sex differences in HIV/AIDS reported mortality in Latin American countries: 1996-2007

BACKGROUND

International cohort studies have shown that antiretroviral treatment (ART) has improved survival of HIV-infected individuals. National population based studies of HIV mortality exist in industrialized settings but few have been presented from developing countries. Our objective was to investigate on a population basis, the regional situation regarding HIV mortality and trends in Latin America (LA) in the context of adoption of public ART policies and gender differences.

METHODS

Cause of death data from vital statistics registries from 1996 to 2007 with "good" or "average" quality of mortality data were examined. Standardized mortality rates and Poisson regression models by country were developed and differences among countries assessed to identify patterns of HIV mortality over time occurring in Latin America.

RESULTS

Standardized HIV mortality following the adoption of public ART policies was highest in Panama and El Salvador and lowest in Chile. During the study period, three overall patterns were identified in HIV mortality trends- following the adoption of the free ART public policies; a remarkable decrement, a remarkable increment and a slight increment. HIV mortality was consistently higher in males compared to females. Mean age of death attributable to HIV increased in the majority of countries over the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Vital statistics registries provide valuable information on HIV mortality in LA. While the introduction of national policies for free ART provision has coincided with declines in population-level HIV mortality and increasing age of death in some countries, in others HIV mortality has increased. Barriers to effective ART implementation and uptake in the context of free ART public provision policies should be further investigated.

Physician's manual reporting underestimates mortality: evidence from a population-based HIV/AIDS treatment program

BACKGROUND

In clinical and cohort research, mortality estimates are often derived from manual reports generated by physicians or electronic reports from vital event registries. We examined the rate of underreporting of deaths by manual methods as compared with electronic reports from a vital event registry.

METHODS

The retrospective analyses included deaths among participants registered in an observational cohort who initiated highly-active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) between August 1, 1996 and June 30, 2006. Deaths were routinely reported manually by physicians and through annual electronic record linkages with a population-based vital event registry. Multivariate logistic regression was carried out to assess independent predictors of death reporting by manual methods.

RESULTS

Of the 3,116 individuals included in the analyses, 622 (20.0%) died during follow-up. Manual reporting by physicians only identified 377 (60.6%), while electronic linkages captured 598 (96.1%) of all deaths. Multivariate analysis indicated that deaths among individuals with lower CD4 cell count, higher HIV plasma viral load, a history of injection drug use, and under the care of an HIV-experienced physicians were more likely to be reported manually. Furthermore, non-accidental deaths were more likely to be reported manually, and manual reporting of deaths increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Relying only on manual reports to ascertain deaths significantly underestimates the total number of deaths in the population. This can generate important biases when evaluating the impact of therapeutic interventions in the populational setting.

Trends in mortality and causes of death among women with HIV in the United States: a 10-year study

BACKGROUND

To assess trends in mortality and cause of death for women with HIV, we studied deaths over a 10-year period among participants in the Women's Interagency HIV Study, a representative US cohort.

METHODS

Deaths were ascertained by National Death Index Plus match, and causes of death determined by death certificate.

RESULTS

From 1995 through 2004, 710 of 2792 HIV-infected participants died. During this interval, the standardized mortality ratio fell from a high of 24.7 in 1996 to a plateau with a mean of 10.3 from 2001 to 2004. Over the decade, deaths from non-AIDS causes increased and accounted for the majority of deaths by 2001-2004. The most common non-AIDS causes of death were trauma or overdose, liver disease, cardiovascular disease, and malignancy. Independent predictors of mortality besides HIV-associated variables were depressive symptoms and active hepatitis B or C. Women who were overweight or obese were significantly less likely to die of AIDS than women of normal weight.

CONCLUSIONS

In the Women's Interagency HIV Study, the death rate has plateaued in recent years. Although HIV-associated factors predicted AIDS and non-AIDS deaths, other treatable conditions predicted mortality. Further gains in reducing mortality among HIV-infected women may require broader access to therapies for depression, viral hepatitis, and HIV itself.

The AIDS epidemic in the city of Copenhagen, Denmark: potential years of life lost and impact on life expectancy

AIMS

This study seeks to describe the impact of AIDS on the city of Copenhagen by estimating potential years of life lost (PYLL) before the age of 65 years and to estimate the impact of AIDS deaths on life expectancy for males and females.

METHODS

All AIDS cases reported to the national AIDS surveillance register for residents in the city of Copenhagen in the period 1983-98 were included. For comparative purposes data were obtained on six other causes of death: accidents, suicide, lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease, testicular cancer, and breast cancer.

RESULTS

Overall, deaths from AIDS accounted for 8% of all PYLL in men and showed an increasing tendency from 1983 to 1991, when it became the leading cause of PYLL. AIDS had most impact in men in the age group 25-44 years and accounted for 29% of all PYLL in this group at the peak in 1993, decreasing significantly after the introduction of anti-retroviral treatments to 5% of PYLL in 1998. Other leading causes of PYLL, accidents and suicide, also showed a decreasing tendency over the years, but of a much smaller magnitude than AIDS. The impact of AIDS in women was more modest. In the entire study period suicide, accidents, and breast cancer were the leading causes of PYLL in women. It was shown that AIDS deaths at the top of the epidemic in 1991-95 were responsible for a loss of 0.76 years in life expectancy for men and 0.08 years for women.

CONCLUSIONS

AIDS has had a considerable impact on potential years of life lost. A significant decline in AIDS deaths has been seen since 1995 with an effect on life expectancy for men in the city of Copenhagen.

Population-Based Surveillance of HIV-Associated Cancers: Utility of Cancer Registry Data

Long-term cancer risks are uncertain in HIV-infected persons, particularly those using highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Timely, population-based surveillance of HIV-associated malignancies in the United States has been challenging because of various data inadequacies. Cancer registries represent a resource for this surveillance, if uncertainties around accurate differentiation of HIV-associated and unassociated cancers can be resolved. To inform the utility of cancer registry data for classifying and monitoring HIV-associated cancers, the completeness and quality of cancer registry-available information about patient HIV status was assessed. For all 10,126 non-Hodgkin lymphomas (NHLs), 1497 Hodgkin lymphomas (HLs), and 895 anal cancers reported to the Greater San Francisco Bay Area registry during 1990-1998, 6 indicators of patient HIV status were retrieved from 2 cancer registry-available sources (cancer registry records, death records) and from linkage with the California AIDS registry. Cross-tabulations were used to examine the distributions of patients with evidence of positive HIV status by indicator and source. Together, 5 cancer registry-available HIV indicators identified 25% more presumed HIV-positive NHL patients and nearly 50% more HL and anal cancer patients than were detected by AIDS registry linkage. Eighty-three percent of NHL patients and at least half of HL and anal cancer patients were identified by multiple sources of HIV indicators, and most individual indicators agreed acceptably with others. However, optimal strategies for classifying HIV-associated patients differed by cancer site. At least in this region, cancer registry data represent a useful resource for monitoring HIV-associated lymphomas and anal cancer and may offer benefits over linkage-based means in the age of HAART.

Population-based patterns of human immunodeficiency virus-related Hodgkin lymphoma in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area, 1988-1998

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic characteristics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) have not been examined in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area, a center of the HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic, for a decade, despite changes in AIDS-associated diseases after the availability of highly active antiretroviral therapies (HAART).

METHODS

With population-based cancer registry data for 1988-1998, the authors examined risk factors, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) association, incidence rates, and survival probabilities for 1752 patients with HL who were classified as HIV-positive or HIV-negative by a cancer registry-based method.

RESULTS

One hundred twenty-eight patients with HL (7%) were classified with HIV/AIDS; 95% were male. Among males, multivariate analysis (n=514 patients) found that HIV-related HL was associated strongly at diagnosis with ages 30-49 years, San Francisco residence, late-stage disease, lymphocyte depletion and unspecified histologic subtypes, and tumor cell EBV but not with other clinical features or mixed cellularity histology. Survival among patients with HIV-related HL, although it was poor, did not differ by race/ethnicity but was worse for patients with the nonnodular sclerosis histologic subtypes. Patients who were HIV-positive with HAART era (1996-1998) diagnoses were slightly older, were less likely to live in San Francisco, and were much more likely to be Hispanic compared with HIV-positive patients who were diagnosed before the HAART era; they had somewhat less aggressive disease and better survival. Incidence rates were higher for patients with HL overall compared with patients who had HIV-unrelated HL by 11% for white patients, 22% for black patients, and by 14% for Hispanic patients; excesses were greater in young adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Among males in the San Francisco Bay Area, HIV-related HL had distinctive demographic features, more aggressive clinical characteristics, stronger EBV association, and poorer survival and contributed to elevated regional HL incidence rates, particularly in young adults. Patients with HIV-related HL who were diagnosed after HAART was introduced appeared to have less aggressive disease and better survival.

Low socioeconomic status is associated with a higher rate of death in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy, San Francisco

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has dramatically improved survival after AIDS. The benefits of HAART have not been equally realized for all communities, however. We characterize the association of socioeconomic status (SES) with survival after AIDS diagnosis in San Francisco in the period before (1980-1995) and after (1996 - 2001) the wider use of HAART. Using citywide surveillance data, we examined differences in survival after AIDS diagnosis by neighborhood household income using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards analysis to adjust for significant covariates. Residing in higher SES neighborhoods significantly predicted better survival after AIDS from 1996 to 2001 (hazard ratio = 0.92 per $10,000 increase in neighborhood household income, 95% CI: 0.85-0.99) after adjusting for CD4 count at diagnosis, age, and injection drug user status. Persons living in poorer neighborhoods were less likely to use HAART at any time in the past compared with persons in wealthier neighborhoods. Moreover, no association between survival and neighborhood SES was evident in the era prior to the wide use of HAART. Finally, the difference in survival by neighborhood income level disappeared after controlling for the use of HAART, suggesting that use of or access to treatment explained the association. From 1996 to 2001, survival with AIDS was worse for people living in poorer neighborhoods compared with those living in wealthier neighborhoods of San Francisco as a result of unequal access to or use of HAART.

Causes of death among women with human immunodeficiency virus infection in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy

PURPOSE

To examine changes in the causes of death and mortality in women with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy.

METHODS

Among women with, or at risk of, HIV infection, who were enrolled in a national study from 1994 to 1995, we used an algorithm that classified cause of death as due to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or non-AIDS causes based on data from death certificates and the CD4 count. Poisson regression models were used to estimate death rates and to determine the risk factors for AIDS and non-AIDS deaths.

RESULTS

Of 2059 HIV-infected women and 569 who were at risk of HIV infection, 468 (18%) had died by April 2000 (451 HIV-infected and 17 not infected). Causes of death were available for 428 participants (414 HIV-infected and 14 not infected). Among HIV-infected women, deaths were classified as AIDS (n = 294), non-AIDS (n = 91), or indeterminate (n = 29). The non-AIDS causes included liver failure (n = 19), drug overdose (n = 16), non-AIDS malignancies (n = 12), cardiac disease (n = 10), and murder, suicide, or accident (n = 10). All-cause mortality declined an average of 26% per year (P = 0.03) and AIDS-related mortality declined by 39% per year (P = 0.01), whereas non-AIDS-related mortality remained stable (10% average annual decrease, P = 0.73). Factors that were independently associated with non-AIDS-related mortality included depression, history of injection drug use with hepatitis C infection, cigarette smoking, and age.

CONCLUSION

A substantial minority (20%) of deaths among women with HIV was due to causes other than AIDS. Our data suggest that to decrease mortality further among HIV-infected women, attention must be paid to treatable conditions, such as hepatitis C, depression, and drug and tobacco use.

Trends in young adult mortality in three European cities: Barcelona, Bologna and Munich, 1986-1995

OBJECTIVE

In recent decades, in most European countries young adult mortality has risen, or at best has remained stable. The aim of this study was to describe trends in mortality attributable to the principal causes of death: AIDS, drug overdose, suicide and motor vehicle traffic accidents, among adults aged between 15 and 34 years in three European cities (Barcelona, Bologna and Munich), over the period 1986 to 1995.

METHODS

The population studied consisted of all deaths that occurred between 1986 and 1995 among residents of Barcelona, Bologna and Munich aged from 15 to 34 years. Information about deaths was obtained from mortality registers. The study variables were sex, age, the underlying cause of death and year of death. Causes of death studied were: drug overdose, AIDS, suicide and motor vehicle traffic accidents. Age standardised mortality rates (direct adjustment) were obtained in all three cities for the age range 15-34. To investigate trends in mortality over the study period Poisson regression models were fitted, obtaining the average relative risk (RR) associated with a one year increment.

RESULTS

Young adult mortality increased among men in Barcelona and Bologna (RR per year: 1.04, 95% confidence intervals (95%CI): 1.03, 1.06 in Barcelona and RR:1.03, 95%CI:1.01, 1.06 in Bologna) and among women in Barcelona (RR:1.02, 95%CI: 1.01, 1.04), with a change in the pattern of the main causes of death attributable to the increase in AIDS and drug overdose mortality. In Munich, the pattern did not change as much, suicides being the main cause of death during the 10 years studied, although they have been decreasing since 1988 (RR:0.92, 95%CI:0.88, 0.96 for men and 0.81, 95%CI: 0.75-0.87 for women).

CONCLUSION

The increase in AIDS mortality observed in the three European cities in the mid-80s and mid-90s has yielded substantial changes in the pattern of the main causes of death at young ages in Barcelona and Bologna. Munich presented a more stable pattern, with suicide as the main cause of death.

Effects of HIV infection on age and cause of death for persons with hemophilia A in the United States

Because of changes in factor replacement therapy and in treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, we examined death record data for persons with hemophilia A in the United States to evaluate effects of HIV infection on age and causes of death. Multiple cause-of-death data from 1968 through 1998 were examined to assess death rates for persons with hemophilia A. ICD-9 coded causes of death from 1979 through 1998 were examined to assess long-term trends. From 1979 through 1998, 4,781 deaths among persons with hemophilia A were reported, of which 2,254 (47%) had HIV-related disease listed as a cause of death. In the late 1980s, mortality among persons with hemophilia A increased markedly, and the age-adjusted death rate peaked at 1.5 per 1,000,000 population in 1992. Median age at death decreased from 55 years in 1979-1982 to 40.5 years in 1987-1990, and increased to 46 years in 1995-1998. In the period 1995-1998, the median age of hemophilia A decedents with HIV-related disease was 33 years, compared to 72 years for those without HIV-related disease; the most frequently listed causes of death for those without HIV-related disease were hemorrhagic and circulatory phenomena; the most frequently listed for those with HIV-related disease were diseases of liver and the respiratory system. From 1995 to 1998, hemophilia A-associated deaths decreased by 41%, with a 78% decrease among those who had HIV-related disease. Although HIV infection has adversely effected mortality for persons with hemophilia A, the marked recent decrease in the death rate among persons with hemophilia A appears to reflect advances in care for those with HIV-related disease and is consistent with a decline in HIV mortality observed in the general population.

Modern antiretroviral therapy improves life expectancy of gay and bisexual males in Vancouver's West End

This study was undertaken to evaluate the life expectancy of gay and bisexual men in the West End of Vancouver, British Columbia during two time periods. Mortality data for males were obtained for the periods 1990 to 1992 and 1995 to 1997 and population estimates were obtained from the 1991 and 1996 Census. The proportion of the male population over 20 years of age estimated to be gay and bisexual was derived from a random telephone survey. Mortality patterns were assessed by comparing changes in life expectancy at age 20 years between the periods, and by examining the life expectancy lost attributed to HIV/AIDS. Between the periods there was 3.8 +/- 3.4 years increase in life expectancy among gay and bisexual men. At exact age 20 years, life expectancy increased from 37.0 +/- 3.5 years during the period 1990 to 1992 to 40.8 +/- 2.4 years during the period 1995 to 1997. The loss of life expectancy attributed to HIV/AIDS at this age was 13.8 +/- 3.9 during the first period and 9.8 +/- 3.6 years during the second period. This gain is most likely the result of the improved efficacy of antiretroviral therapies.

Mortality in young adults in England and Wales: the impact of the HIV epidemic

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the contribution of the HIV epidemic to premature mortality in England and Wales 1985-1996.

DESIGN

Surveillance of deaths in HIV-infected individuals and causes of death from death certificates.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Time trends in age-specific mortality rates among 15-44 year olds and years of potential life lost (YPLL) to age 65 associated with HIV infection and other important causes of death in young adults.

RESULTS

The crude age-specific mortality rates for all causes of death in the 15-44 year age band remained fairly constant between 1985 and 1996: in other age bands a decrease was seen. Deaths from both suicide and HIV increased in men aged 15-44 years. Although suicide accounted for a greater number of deaths throughout the period investigated, the largest proportional and absolute increase was seen for deaths in HIV-infected people. By 1996, the contribution of HIV to YPLL to age 65 varied from less than 0.5% in most rural localities to 20% of total YPLL in one London health authority.

CONCLUSIONS

While part of the adverse trend in mortality in younger adults since 1985 was attributable to suicide, most resulted from HIV infection. The impact of HIV infection on mortality was greatest in London.

Morbidity and mortality related to human immunodeficiency virus in Canadian men and women, 1987-94

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of HIV/AIDS on hospitalization and mortality patterns in Canada.

METHODS

Hospitalizations and deaths due to HIV/AIDS were compared with select causes of morbidity and mortality among men and women across provinces, regions and select cities between 1987-94. Patterns of hospitalization and mortality were characterized by calculating age-specific, standardized rates, rate ratios and potential years of life lost before 65 years.

RESULTS

A total of 28,462 hospitalizations (26,153 in men and 2,309 in women) and 8,739 deaths (8,192 in men and 547 in women) were attributed to HIV/AIDS during the study period. Rates of HIV/AIDS hospitalization were highest for men in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, and in Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver; while among women they were highest in Quebec and in Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver. Mortality rates followed a pattern similar to the rates found for hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis reveals the considerable impact of HIV/AIDS on patterns of morbidity and mortality in Canada.

[Evaluation of under-reporting of AIDS cases in the city of Rio de Janeiro based on data from the hospital information system of the Unified Health System]

Data from the Hospital Information System (SIH-SUS) were linked to data from the AIDS Case Reporting System (Sinan) to assess the level of under-reporting of AIDS cases in the city of Rio de Janeiro. A high level of unreported cases(42.7%) was observed for patients treated in hospitals under Brazil's Unified Health System in the city of Rio. Bivariate analysis showed an association between reporting to the Sinan and age, principal diagnosis, and type of hospital.

Morbidity and mortality related to human immunodeficiency virus in Canadian men and women, 1987-94

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of HIV/AIDS on hospitalization and mortality patterns in Canada.

METHODS

Hospitalizations and deaths due to HIV/AIDS were compared with select causes of morbidity and mortality among men and women across provinces, regions and select cities between 1987-94. Patterns of hospitalization and mortality were characterized by calculating age-specific, standardized rates, rate ratios and potential years of life lost before 65 years.

RESULTS

A total of 28,462 hospitalizations (26,153 in men and 2,309 in women) and 8,739 deaths (8,192 in men and 547 in women) were attributed to HIV/AIDS during the study period. Rates of HIV/AIDS hospitalization were highest for men in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, and in Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver; while among women they were highest in Quebec and in Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver. Mortality rates followed a pattern similar to the rates found for hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis reveals the considerable impact of HIV/AIDS on patterns of morbidity and mortality in Canada.

Tuberculosis mortality associated with AIDS and drug or alcohol abuse: analysis of multiple cause-of-death data

The resurgence in tuberculosis morbidity in the mid-1980s has increased interest in tuberculosis mortality. We examined mortality in the United States, from tuberculosis in 1990, using multiple cause-of-death data to describe the impact of AIDS and substance abuse, defined as drug or alcohol abuse, on mortality from tuberculosis. Tuberculosis mortality by age showed a bimodal pattern, with a peak between ages 25 and 55; by race/ethnicity, black and Hispanic males had the highest mortality rates, and black females had rates close to those of Hispanic males. Although in each of the race/ethnicity categories the removal of deaths with AIDS resulted in mortality curves closer to those of 1980, the bimodal pattern remained for black and Hispanic deaths. When we examined deaths with tuberculosis and substance abuse, we found that substance abuse without AIDS may account for additional deaths contributing to the bimodal pattern seen.

Case-management of AIDS clients as a predictor of total inpatient hospital days

AIDS has shifted from an acute short-term terminal illness to a progressive, chronic disorder. Evaluation of AIDS case-management is imperative due to both the increasing numbers of cases and the lengthened survival of those with the disease. In 1988 the Missouri Department of Health (MDOH) initiated the first statewide system of AIDS case-management in the United States. This study was done to determine if deceased AIDS clients who received MDOH case-management services had fewer inpatient hospital days than clients who did not receive these services, during the last six months of life. Death certificates and Medicaid records were merged for 100 case-managed and 99 control, non-case-managed AIDS clients. No significant difference between groups was found in number of inpatient hospital days. Further, neither age, ethnicity, gender, cause of death, nor specific AIDS risk factors were associated with total number of inpatient hospital days. The client-centered philosophy of the program may have encouraged case managers to utilize all available service, including hospitalization, without considering cost-containment issues. Future evaluation efforts will investigate both cost-containment and quality-of-life indicators, such as satisfaction with care, of case-managed AIDS clients.

[An improvement in the AIDS mortality statistics in Catalonia]

Differences between the number of AIDS death reported to the mortality register and to the AIDS register in Catalonia, Spain are relatively small, due to bot registers cooperation. Official mortality statistics are able to identify 78% of AIDS deaths. This proportion can be increased if the deaths caused by AIDS indicative diseases are included. The overall proportion of false positives when comparing both registers is 8.2%. Analysis of the available information from death certificates is useful to suggest simple recommendation to improve the quality of AIDS mortality data.

Changes in longevity and causes of death among persons with hemophilia A

To examine recent changes in longevity and the causes of death among persons with hemophilia A, we evaluated death certificate data for persons who died in the United States from 1968 through 1989 and had hemophilia A or congenital Factor VIII disorder (ICD code 286.0) listed on the death certificate as one of the multiple causes of death. Multiple-cause-of-death mortality data for the United States from 1968 to 1989 were examined to compare death rates by year, focusing on death rates and causes of death for 1979-1981, 1983-1985, and 1987-1989. Gender, age group, race, geographic region, and median age at death of persons with hemophilia A and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related disease listed as a cause of death were compared with those with hemophilia A without HIV-related disease. From 1968 through 1989, 2,792 hemophilia A deaths were reported. The death rate increased from 0.5 to 1.3 per 1,000,000 persons. From 1979-1981 through 1987-1989, mortality increased in all age groups above 9 years of age and age at death shifted markedly to lower ages. Median age at death decreased from 57 years in 1979-1981 to 40 years in 1987-1989. The percentage of deaths due to hemorrhage or diseases of the circulatory system decreased markedly as the result of the increase in deaths associated with HIV infection or infections other than HIV infection. Spread of HIV-1 infection in persons with hemophilia A has disrupted the reduction in mortality seen with factor replacement therapy, implementation of home care, and use of comprehensive hemophilia treatment centers. It is hoped that advances in the care of HIV-infected persons will improve survival in the hemophilia community.

Causes of death among persons reported with AIDS

OBJECTIVES

This study describes causes of death in persons with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and assesses the completeness of reporting of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection or AIDS on death certificates of persons with AIDS.

METHODS

AIDS case reports were linked with death certificates in 11 local/state health departments; underlying and associated causes of death were available for 32,513 persons with AIDS who died.

RESULTS

HIV/AIDS was designated as the underlying cause of death for 46% of persons with AIDS who died between 1983 and 1986 and 81% of persons with AIDS who died since 1987 (the year specific coding procedures were implemented for HIV/AIDS). Most other underlying causes of death were conditions within the AIDS case definition (notably Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia), pneumonia, infections outside the AIDS case definition, and drug abuse. Unintentional injuries, suicide, and homicide were less common. HIV/AIDS was listed as underlying or associated on 88% of death certificates from 1987 to 1989; reporting varied primarily by HIV exposure category and time between diagnosis and death.

CONCLUSIONS

Physicians and other health care professionals should realize their critical role in accurately documenting HIV-related mortality on death certificates. Such data can ultimately influence the allocation of health care resources for HIV-infected individuals.

Serum beta 2-microglobulin and prediction of progression to AIDS in HIV infection

Identification of laboratory tests that can help predict progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is important for clinical management and counselling. We have assessed the usefulness of CD4 lymphocyte count, serum beta 2-microglobulin concentration, and the presence of p24 antigen as predictors of AIDS. We studied 214 homosexual and bisexual men with well-defined dates of HIV seroconversion. For each participant, we defined the baseline date as the earliest date before the development of AIDS on which the three laboratory tests were done. beta 2-microglobulin concentration at baseline was in all analyses an independent predictor of AIDS, even after stratification by baseline CD4 count, duration of HIV infection, or use of zidovudine before or at baseline. For example, among men with at least 0.5 x 10(9)/l CD4 cells who were negative for p24 antigen, the risks of AIDS at 12 months and 24 months were 1% and 5%, respectively, for those whose beta 2-microglobulin concentrations were below 4.0 mg/l, compared with 17% and 27%, respectively for those with beta 2-microglobulin concentrations above that cut-off point (p less than 0.001). Among men with an estimated duration of infection of 5 years or less, beta 2-microglobulin concentration was the strongest independent predictor of AIDS. Measurement of serum beta 2-microglobulin adds important prognostic information to CD4 count in determining the risk of progression to AIDS in HIV-infected subjects, including those whose CD4 cell count has not yet fallen.