Trajectory Modelling Techniques Useful to Epidemiological Research: A Comparative Narrative Review of Approaches

Long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms in deployed military personnel: A 10-year prospective study

BACKGROUND

Military missions, especially those involving combat exposure, are associated with an increased risk of depression. Understanding the long-term course of depressive symptoms post-deployment is important to improve decision-making regarding deployment and mental health policies in the military. This study investigates trajectories of depressive symptoms in the Dutch army, exploring the influence of factors such as demographics, early-life trauma, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, and deployment stressors.

METHODS

A cohort of 1032 military men and women deployed to Afghanistan (2005-2008) was studied from pre- to 10 years post-deployment. Depressive and PTSD symptoms were assessed using the Symptom CheckList-90 and the Self-Rating Inventory for PTSD. Demographics, early trauma, and deployment experiences were collected at baseline and after deployment, respectively. Latent Class Growth Analysis was used to explore heterogeneity in trajectories of depressive symptoms over time.

RESULTS

Four trajectories were found: resilient (65%), intermediate-stable (20%), symptomatic-chronic (9%), and late-onset-increasing (6%). The resilient group experienced fewer deployment stressors, while the symptomatic-chronic group reported more early life traumas. Trajectories with elevated depressive symptoms consistently demonstrated higher PTSD symptoms.

LIMITATIONS

Potential nonresponse bias and missing information due to the longitudinal design and extensive follow-up times.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified multiple trajectories of depressive symptoms in military personnel up to 10 years post-deployment, associated with early trauma, deployment stressors, adverse life events and PTSD symptoms. The prevalence of the resilient trajectory suggests a substantial level of resilience among deployed military personnel. These findings provide valuable insights and a foundation for further research.

A Prospective Cohort Study of Acute Pain and In-Hospital Opioid Consumption After Cardiac Surgery: Associations With Psychological and Medical Factors and Chronic Postsurgical Pain

BACKGROUND

Understanding the association of acute pain intensity and opioid consumption after cardiac surgery with chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) can facilitate implementation of personalized prevention measures to improve outcomes. The objectives were to (1) examine acute pain intensity and daily mg morphine equivalent dose (MME/day) trajectories after cardiac surgery, (2) identify factors associated with pain intensity and opioid consumption trajectories, and (3) assess whether pain intensity and opioid consumption trajectories are risk factors for CPSP.

METHODS

Prospective observational cohort study design conducted between August 2012 and June 2020 with 1-year follow-up. A total of 1115 adults undergoing cardiac surgery were recruited from the preoperative clinic. Of the 959 participants included in the analyses, 573 completed the 1-year follow-up. Main outcomes were pain intensity scores and MME/day consumption over the first 6 postoperative days (PODs) analyzed using latent growth mixture modeling (GMM). Secondary outcome was 12-month CPSP status.

RESULTS

Participants were mostly male (76%), with a mean age of 61 ± 13 years. Three distinct linear acute postoperative pain intensity trajectories were identified: "initially moderate pain intensity remaining moderate" (n = 62), "initially mild pain intensity remaining mild" (n = 221), and "initially moderate pain intensity decreasing to mild" (n = 251). Age, sex, emotional distress in response to bodily sensations, and sensitivity to pain traumatization were significantly associated with pain intensity trajectories. Three distinct opioid consumption trajectories were identified on the log MME/day: "initially high level of MME/day gradually decreasing" (n = 89), "initially low level of MME/day remaining low" (n = 108), and "initially moderate level of MME/day decreasing to low" (n = 329). Age and emotional distress in response to bodily sensations were associated with trajectory membership. Individuals in the "initially mild pain intensity remaining mild" trajectory were less likely than those in the "initially moderate pain intensity remaining moderate" trajectory to report CPSP (odds ratio [95% confidence interval, CI], 0.23 [0.06-0.88]). No significant associations were observed between opioid consumption trajectory membership and CPSP status (odds ratio [95% CI], 0.84 [0.28-2.54] and 0.95 [0.22-4.13]).

CONCLUSIONS

Those with moderate pain intensity right after surgery are more likely to develop CPSP suggesting that those patients should be flagged early on in their postoperative recovery to attempt to alter their trajectory and prevent CPSP. Emotional distress in response to bodily sensations is the only consistent modifiable factor associated with both pain and opioid trajectories.

The impact of area-level socioeconomic status in childhood on mental health in adolescence and adulthood: A prospective birth cohort study in Aotearoa New Zealand

Mental health conditions pose a significant public health challenge, and low area-level socioeconomic status (SES) is a potentially important upstream determinant. Childhood exposure might have influences on later-life mental health. This study, utilises data from the Christchurch Health and Development Study birth cohort, examining the impact of area-level SES trajectories in childhood (from birth to age 16) on mental health at age 16 and from age 18-40 years. Findings revealed some associations between distinct SES trajectories and mental health. The study underscores the importance of using a spatial lifecourse epidemiology framework to understand long-term environmental impacts on later-life health.

Trust performance in managing inflammatory arthritis over time in England and Wales: a latent class analysis approach

Objectives

To evaluate trust-level performance in time to initiation of DMARD therapy in patients with early inflammatory arthritis (EIA), with identification of the change in performance trajectories over time and investigation of trust characteristics associated with this change.

Methods

We included 130 trusts from the UK contributing to the National Early Inflammatory Arthritis Audit (NEIAA) from 2018 to 2020. The primary outcome was days from referral to initiation of DMARD therapy in patients with EIA. Latent class growth mixture models were applied to identify distinct groups of trusts with similar trajectories of performance change over time. We used mixed effects linear and multinomial logistic regression models to evaluate the association between delay in treatment and trust-level characteristics.

Results

The mean time to DMARD initiation was 53 days (s.d. 18), with an average 0.3-day decrease with each month over time. Four latent trajectories were identified in our cohort, with >77% of individual trusts showing ongoing improvements in decreasing treatment waiting times. Prior to separating by latent class, time to DMARD initiation was shorter in trusts with higher rheumatology staffing, a local EIA treatment pathway and those with access to musculoskeletal ultrasound. Trusts with more nurses in the rheumatology department were less likely to be in the worst performance group [odds ratio 0.69 (95% CI 0.49, 0.93)].

Conclusion

In this cohort study, we observed a reduction in treatment waiting time over time. Trusts with better staffed and improved EIA clinical structure are likely to initiate definitive treatment earlier in patients with EIA.

IgA vasculitis nephritis: insights from kidney biopsies

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To present findings indicating the value of kidney biopsy in assessing prognosis and guiding clinical approach to patients with IgA vasculitis nephritis (IgAVN), including a recent international study examining the value of the Oxford (MEST-C) classification.

RECENT FINDINGS

Historically, kidney biopsies with IgAVN are scored using the International Society for Kidney Diseases in Children (ISKDC) classification. However, this classification has limited prognostic value, and most biopsies fall into just two of the six ISKDC grades. There are few studies examining the clinical value of the Oxford classification, which is well documented to be predictive of kidney outcomes in IgA nephropathy, in IgAVN. However, a recent study of 361 biopsied patients with IgAVN showed that endocapillary hypercellularity (Oxford E1) predicted a subclass of patients showing initial improvement in kidney function with immunosuppressive treatment, followed by a later decline.

SUMMARY

Kidney outcome in patients with biopsied IgAVN treated with immunosuppression is determined by clinical factors and endocapillary hypercellularity. The latter is not part of the ISKDC classification and supports including MEST-C scores in biopsy reports of IgAVN. Even patients showing a good initial response to immunosuppression require long-term follow-up due to risk of subsequent kidney function decline.

Three-year trajectories of social networks, face-to-face interactions, and non-face-to-face interactions among community-dwelling older adults in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic: Otassha study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the trajectories of social networks and interactions among older Japanese individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic.

STUDY DESIGN

We used data from a cohort of community-dwelling older individuals from the Otassha study's 2019-2022 survey. Participants comprised 606 older individuals who participated in the 2019 survey and were followed up at least once.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Social networks were assessed using the Lubben Social Network Scale-6 (LSNS-6), whereas social interactions were assessed by the frequency of face-to-face or non-face-to-face contact with non-resident family members and friends. Trajectories of the LSNS-6 and face-to-face and non-face-to-face interactions were identified using group-based semiparametric mixture modeling. The trajectories of change in the LSNS-6 from 2019 were also identified. The factors associated with the changes in trajectory patterns were examined using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Three LSNS-6 trajectories were identified, with slightly decreasing patterns over time. Specifically, face-to-face interactions tended to decrease over time, whereas non-face-to-face interactions exhibited almost no change. The reduction in LSNS-6 in the decreased pattern failed to recover to its pre-pandemic level. The group of participants with the decreased pattern had a significantly higher proportion of people participating in group activities [odds ratio (95 % confidence interval): 2.27 (1.12-4.59)] and performing calisthenics twice a week than the group with the maintained pattern [2.08 (1.18-3.68)].

CONCLUSIONS

During the three years of the pandemic, no changes were observed in the social networks of community-dwelling older Japanese individuals.

Empirical sample-specific approaches to define HPV16 and HPV18 seropositivity in unvaccinated, young, sexually active women

Given low seroconversion rates following human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, fixed external cutoffs may lead to errors in estimating HPV seroprevalence. We evaluated finite mixture modeling (FMM) and group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) among unvaccinated, sexually active, HPV-exposed women to determine study-specific HPV16 and HPV18 seropositivity thresholds. We included 399 women (aged 18-24 years) enrolled in the HPV Infection and Transmission Among Couples Through Heterosexual Activity (HITCH) cohort study between 2005 and 2011 in Montreal, Canada. Participants' blood samples from up to six visits spanning 2 years were tested by multiplex serology for antibodies [median fluorescence intensity (MFI)] specific to bacterially expressed HPV16 and HPV18 L1 glutathione S-transferase fusion proteins. We applied FMM and GBTM to baseline and longitudinal antibody titer measurements, respectively, to define HPV type-specific seronegative and seropositive distributions. Study-specific thresholds were generated as five standard deviations above the mean seronegative antibody titers, mimicking cutoffs (HPV16: 422 MFI; HPV18: 394 MFI) derived from an external population of sexually inactive, HPV DNA-negative Korean women (aged 15-29 years). Agreement (kappa) of study-specific thresholds was evaluated against external cutoffs. Seroprevalence estimates using FMM (HPV16: 27.5%-43.2%; HPV18: 21.7%-49.5%) and GBTM (HPV16: 11.8%-11.8%; HPV18: 9.9%-13.4%) thresholds exceeded those of external cutoffs (HPV: 10.2%; HPV18: 9.7%). FMM thresholds showed slight-to-moderate agreement with external cutoffs (HPV16: 0.26%-0.46%; HPV18: 0.20%-0.56%), while GBTM thresholds exhibited high agreement (HPV16: 0.92%-0.92%; HPV18: 0.82%-0.99%). Kappa values suggest that GBTM, used for longitudinal serological data, and otherwise FMM, for cross-sectional data, are robust methods for determining the HPV serostatus without prior classification rules.IMPORTANCEWhile human papillomavirus (HPV) seropositivity has been employed as an epidemiologic determinant of the natural history of genital HPV infections, only a fraction of women incidentally infected with HPV respond by developing significant antibody levels. HPV seropositivity is often determined by a dichotomous fixed cutoff based on the seroreactivity of an external population of women presumed as seronegative, given the lack of evidence of HPV exposure. However, considering the variable nature of seroreactivity upon HPV infection, which arguably varies across populations, such externally defined cutoffs may lack specificity to the population of interest, causing inappropriate assessment of HPV seroprevalence and related epidemiologic uses of that information. This study demonstrates that finite mixture modeling (FMM) and group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) can be used to independently estimate seroprevalence or serve as the basis for defining study-specific seropositivity thresholds without requiring prior subjective assumptions, consequently providing a more apt internally valid discrimination of seropositive from seronegative individuals.

Determinants of Trajectories of Informal Caregiving in later life. Evidence from England

Although long-term consequences of informal care provision are well investigated, fewer studies have examined trajectories of informal care provision among older people and the socioeconomic, demographic, health, and family characteristics associated with them. We use data from four waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, with 6,561 respondents followed for 6 years (2012/3 to 2018/9). We used group-based trajectory modelling to group people's provision of care over time into a finite number of distinct trajectories of caregiving. Using multinomial logistic regressions, we then investigated characteristics associated with these trajectories. Four distinct trajectories were identified representing "stable intensive", "increasing intensive", "decreasing", and "stable no care". Results suggest that, although there are socioeconomic, demographic, and health differences across the trajectories of caregiving (with younger women in good health and poorer socioeconomic status more likely to care intensively throughout), family characteristics are their main drivers. Respondents who live alone, with no children, and no parents alive are more likely to never provide care, whereas those with older parents and who live with adults in poor health are more likely to provide stable intensive care. Also, changes in family characteristics (e.g. death of parents, widowhood, or deterioration of the partner's health) are associated with trajectories representing increases or decreases of caregiving over time. Overall, trajectories of informal caregiving undertaken by older people are varied and these patterns are mostly associated with both the availability and health of family members, suggesting that the needs factors represent the most immediate reason for caregiving commitments.

Remnant cholesterol trajectory and subclinical arteriosclerosis: a 10-year longitudinal study of Chinese adults

We aimed to identify different trajectories of remnant cholesterol (RC) and investigate the association of RC trajectories with vascular endothelial function and atherosclerosis progression in a longitudinal cohort of the Chinese population. A total of 521 participants were included in the flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD) subcohort study, and 7775 participants were included in the brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) subcohort study. All participants had ≥ 3 medical examinations during the 10-year follow-up period. In the FMD subcohort study, three distinct RC trajectories were identified according to the RC range and changing pattern over time: "low" (57.58%), "moderate" (30.90%) and "high" (11.52%). The proportion of the three groups with vascular endothelial dysfunction (FMD < 7.0%) was 20.00%, 39.75% and 60.00% respectively. Taking the low group as a reference, participants in the moderate and high groups had over 1.88 and 2.94 times the odds of vascular endothelial dysfunction (P = 0.048). In the baPWV subcohort study, three distinct RC trajectories were also identified: "low" (54.29%), "moderate" (38.97%) and "high" (6.74%). The proportion of the three groups with atherosclerosis (baPWV > 1400 cm/s) was 38.79%, 51.26% and 59.01% respectively. Taking the low group as a reference, participants in the moderate and high groups had over 1.46 and 2.16 times the odds of atherosclerosis (P < 0.001). The findings indicated that distinct RC trajectories are significantly associated with vascular endothelial function and atherosclerosis. Regular monitoring to identify persistent increases in RC may be more helpful in identifying individuals with a high risk of cardiovascular disease.

Depressive symptom trajectories with prolonged rTMS treatment

BACKGROUND

A prolonged repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) treatment course could be beneficial for some patients experiencing major depressive episodes (MDE). We identified trajectories of rTMS response in depressive patients who received an extended rTMS treatment course and sought to determine which trajectories achieved the greatest benefit with a prolonged treatment course.

METHOD

We applied group-based trajectory modeling to a naturalistic dataset of depressive patients receiving a prolonged course of sequential bilateral rTMS (up to 51 treatment sessions) to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Trajectories of the PHQ-9 with extended treatment courses were characterized, and we explored the association between baseline clinical characteristics and group membership using multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among the 324 study participants, four trajectories were identified: "linear response, extended course" (N = 73; 22.5 %); "nonresponse" (N = 23; 7.1 %); "slowed response" (N = 159; 49.1 %); "rapid response, standard treatment length" (N = 69; 21.3 %). Only the "linear response, extended course" group showed considerable clinical improvement after receiving additional rTMS treatments. Greater baseline depressive symptoms were associated with linear response and non-response.

CONCLUSION

Our results confirmed the distinctive response trajectories in depressive patients receiving rTMS and further highlighted that prolonged rTMS treatment courses may be beneficial for a subset of patients with higher initial symptom levels and linear early treatment response.

Developmental Trajectories of Mental Health in Chinese Early Adolescents: School Climate and Future Orientation as Predictors

There is growing support for the dual-continua model of mental health, which emphasizes psychopathology and well-being as related but distinct dimensions. Yet, little is known about how these dimensions co-develop from childhood to early adolescence and what factors predict their different trajectories. The current study aimed to identify distinct patterns of mental health in Chinese early adolescents, focusing on both psychopathological symptoms (i.e., depressive symptoms and self-harm behaviors) and subjective well-being (i.e., life satisfaction and affect balance). This study also examined the contributions of school climate and future orientation to these trajectories. A total of 1,057 students (Mage = 11.88, SDage = 1.67; 62.1% boys) completed four assessments over two years, with six-month intervals. Using parallel-process latent class growth modeling, we identified four groups: Flourishing (32.5%), Languishing (43.8%), Troubled with Stable Depressive Symptoms (16.1%), and Troubled with Increasing Self-Harm Risk (7.6%). Furthermore, school climate and future orientation contributed to adolescents' membership in these trajectories, either independently or jointly. Specifically, higher levels of future orientation combined with higher school climate were associated with a lower likelihood of belonging to the Troubled with Increasing Self-Harm Risk trajectory, compared to the Flourishing group. Our findings identified four distinct mental health trajectories consistent with the dual-continua model, and demonstrated that the development of psychopathology and well-being were not always inversely related (e.g., the Languishing group). Adolescents with unique developmental profiles may benefit from tailored intervention strategies that build on the personal and environmental assets of the adolescent.

Group-based trajectory modeling for fear of cancer recurrence in cancer survivors: a systematic review

PURPOSE

We aimed to systematically review studies that used a group-based trajectory modeling approach to explore the categories of fear of cancer recurrence (FCR) trajectories and their predictors in cancer survivors.

METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched. Three authors independently reviewed the literature for predefined eligibility criteria. The Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools for Cohort Studies and the Guidelines for Reporting on Latent Trajectory Studies were used to assess the quality of included studies. A qualitative synthesis of the included studies was performed.

RESULTS

Ninety-eight studies were retrieved after removing duplicates, and 11 studies met the criteria for inclusion. There are four types of FCR trajectories: stable, decreasing, increasing, and stable-then-decreasing-then-increasing. The following factors were considered significant predictors of FCR trajectory category in at least one of the included studies: age, race, income, education, employment, cancer stage, physical symptoms, depression, anxiety, satisfaction with medical care, and selected cognitive and behavioral factors.

CONCLUSIONS

There was considerable heterogeneity among the studies included in study design and FCR trajectory results. Factors that significantly predicted FCR trajectory categories mostly focused on psychological characteristics. The correlation of sociodemographic and disease-related predictors with FCR trajectory categories was not consistent among the included studies.

IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS

We suggest that future scholars should incorporate more psychological factors when identifying cancer survivors who persistently maintain a high level of FCR and developing FCR mitigation measures.

Weekly pain trajectories among people with knee or hip osteoarthritis participating in a digitally delivered first-line exercise and education treatment

OBJECTIVE

Digital self-management programs are increasingly used in the management of osteoarthritis (OA). Little is known about heterogeneous patterns in response to these programs. We describe weekly pain trajectories of people with knee or hip OA over up to 52-week participation in a digital self-management program.

METHODS

Observational cohort study among participants enrolled between January 2019 and September 2021 who participated at least 4 and up to 52 weeks in the program (n = 16 274). We measured pain using Numeric Rating Scale (NRS 0-10) and applied latent class growth analysis to identify classes with similar trajectories. Associations between baseline characteristics and trajectory classes were examined using multinomial logistic regression and dominance analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 4 pain trajectory classes: "mild-largely improved" (30%), "low moderate-largely improved" (34%), "upper moderate-improved" (24%), and "severe-persistent" (12%). For classes with decreasing pain, the most pain reduction occurred during first 20 weeks and was stable thereafter. Male sex, older age, lower body mass index (BMI), better physical function, lower activity impairment, less anxiety/depression, higher education, knee OA, no walking difficulties, no wish for surgery and higher physical activity, all measured at enrolment, were associated with greater probabilities of membership in "mild-largely improved" class than other classes. Dominance analysis suggested that activity impairment followed by wish for surgery and walking difficulties were the most important predictors of trajectory class membership.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results highlight the importance of reaching people with OA for first-line treatment prior to developing severe pain, poor health status and a wish for surgery.

Life-course trajectories of body mass index and cardiovascular disease risks and health outcomes in adulthood: Systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review aimed to assess the effect of life course body mass index (BMI) trajectories (childhood to adulthood) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and outcomes.

METHODS

Prospective or retrospective cohort studies were identified that assessed the association of BMI trajectories with CVD risks and outcomes from databases published in English. The pooled effect sizes were estimated using a random-effects model.

FINDINGS

Seventeen eligible studies were included in this systematic review. The results revealed that a persistently overweight trajectory from childhood to adulthood was associated with a higher risk of hypertension (RR: 2.49; 95% CI: 1.9, 3.28) and type 2 diabetes (RR: 4.62; 95% CI: 2.36, 9.04) compared with a trajectory characterized by a normal BMI throughout both childhood and adulthood. Similarly, the risk of hypertension (RR: 2.38; 95% CI: 1.70, 3.33) and type 2 diabetes (RR: 3.66; 95% CI: 2.57, 5.19) was higher in those with normal-to-overweight trajectory compared with participants with a stable normal weight trajectory.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that lifetime BMI trajectories may be influential on health outcomes, and preventive strategies should be designed accordingly. Implementing appropriate preventive strategies at all life stages may reduce CVD risks and adverse outcomes later in life.

Histologic and Clinical Factors Associated with Kidney Outcomes in IgA Vasculitis Nephritis

BACKGROUND

Nephritis is a common manifestation of IgA vasculitis and is morphologically indistinguishable from IgA nephropathy. While MEST-C scores are predictive of kidney outcomes in IgA nephropathy, their value in IgA vasculitis nephritis has not been investigated in large multiethnic cohorts.

METHODS

Biopsies from 262 children and 99 adults with IgA vasculitis nephritis ( N =361) from 23 centers in North America, Europe, and Asia were independently scored by three pathologists. MEST-C scores were assessed for correlation with eGFR/proteinuria at biopsy. Because most patients ( N =309, 86%) received immunosuppression, risk factors for outcomes were evaluated in this group using latent class mixed models to identify classes of eGFR trajectories over a median follow-up of 2.7 years (interquartile range, 1.2-5.1). Clinical and histologic parameters associated with each class were determined using logistic regression.

RESULTS

M, E, T, and C scores were correlated with either eGFR or proteinuria at biopsy. Two classes were identified by latent class mixed model, one with initial improvement in eGFR followed by a late decline (class 1, N =91) and another with stable eGFR (class 2, N =218). Class 1 was associated with a higher risk of an established kidney outcome (time to ≥30% decline in eGFR or kidney failure; hazard ratio, 5.84; 95% confidence interval, 2.37 to 14.4). Among MEST-C scores, only E1 was associated with class 1 by multivariable analysis. Other factors associated with class 1 were age 18 years and younger, male sex, lower eGFR at biopsy, and extrarenal noncutaneous disease. Fibrous crescents without active changes were associated with class 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Kidney outcome in patients with biopsied IgA vasculitis nephritis treated with immunosuppression was determined by clinical risk factors and endocapillary hypercellularity (E1) and fibrous crescents, which are features that are not part of the International Study of Diseases of Children classification.

Trajectories of relationship and sexual satisfaction over 2 years in the Covid-19 pandemic: A latent class analysis

OBJECTIVE

Previous research on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on romantic relationships has mainly concentrated on short-term effects and average trends of change. This study aimed to explore different trajectories of relationship and sexual satisfaction from April 2020 to March 2022.

METHOD

Including a cross-national sample of 2859 individuals, a latent class approach was applied to identify subgroups of sexual and relationship satisfaction trajectories. Participants' satisfaction levels, attachment style, psychological symptoms, life satisfaction, and living arrangements were taken into account.

RESULTS

Three latent classes were identified for both relationship and sexual satisfaction: (1) a group with high satisfaction levels but a slightly declining trajectory, (2) a group with low satisfaction levels but an ascending trajectory, and (3) a fluctuating group. Living apart, having children, psychological symptoms, low life satisfaction, and avoidant attachment characterized the two groups with low or fluctuating trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that there were different trajectories of relationship and sexual satisfaction during the pandemic, which can be predicted by individual dispositions. Even 2 years after the pandemic, its effects had not disappeared.

Evolution of the profiles of new psychotropic drug users before and during the COVID-19 crisis: an original longitudinal approach through multichannel sequence analysis using the French health-care database

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on mental health. An increase in the use of anxiolytic, hypnotic, and antidepressant drugs has been highlighted in France, but with no information at the individual level (trajectories) or concerning patient characteristics. The objective of this study was to describe the profile of new psychotropic drug users since the beginning of the pandemic. We formed two historical cohorts using the Pays-de-la-Loire regional component of the National Health Data System (SNDS): a "COVID-19 crisis cohort" (2020-2021) and a "control cohort" (2018-2019). We analyzed reimbursements for psychotropic medications (anxiolytics, antidepressants, hypnotics, mood stabilizers, and antipsychotics) using a multichannel sequence analysis and performed clustering analysis of sequences. The proportion of new consumers of psychotropic drugs was higher in the COVID-19 crisis cohort (18.0%) than that in the control cohort (16.0%). In the COVID-19 cohort, three clusters of psychotropic drug users were identified, whereas four clusters were identified in the control cohort. A time lag in treatment initiation was observed in the COVID-19 crisis cohort (September) compared with the control cohort (July). This study is one of the first to analyze the profile of psychotropic treatment users during the COVID-19 crisis. Our analysis sheds light on changes in patterns of psychotropic drug use during the COVID-19 pandemic, possibly associated with changes in prescribing conditions and mental health conditions during the crisis. This study also provides an example of the application of an innovative longitudinal analysis methodology in the field of pharmacoepidemiology.

Characterization and trajectories of hematological parameters prior to severe COVID-19 based on a large-scale prospective health checkup cohort in western China: a longitudinal study of 13-year follow-up

BACKGROUND

The relaxation of the "zero-COVID" policy on Dec. 7, 2022, in China posed a major public health threat recently. Complete blood count test was discovered to have complicated relationships with COVID-19 after the infection, while very few studies could track long-term monitoring of the health status and identify the characterization of hematological parameters prior to COVID-19.

METHODS

Based on a 13-year longitudinal prospective health checkup cohort of ~ 480,000 participants in West China Hospital, the largest medical center in western China, we documented 998 participants with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 during the 1 month after the policy. We performed a time-to-event analysis to explore the associations of severe COVID-19 patients diagnosed, with 34 different hematological parameters at the baseline level prior to COVID-19, including the whole and the subtypes of white and red blood cells.

RESULTS

A total of 998 participants with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test were documented in the cohort, 42 of which were severe cases. For white blood cell-related parameters, a higher level of basophil percentage (HR = 6.164, 95% CI = 2.066-18.393, P = 0.001) and monocyte percentage (HR = 1.283, 95% CI = 1.046-1.573, P = 0.017) were found associated with the severe COVID-19. For lymphocyte-related parameters, a lower level of lymphocyte count (HR = 0.571, 95% CI = 0.341-0.955, P = 0.033), and a higher CD4/CD8 ratio (HR = 2.473, 95% CI = 1.009-6.059, P = 0.048) were found related to the risk of severe COVID-19. We also observed that abnormality of red cell distribution width (RDW), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), and hemoglobin might also be involved in the development of severe COVID-19. The different trajectory patterns of RDW-SD and white blood cell count, including lymphocyte and neutrophil, prior to the infection were also discovered to have significant associations with the risk of severe COVID-19 (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings might help decision-makers and clinicians to classify different risk groups of population due to outbreaks including COVID-19. They could not only optimize the allocation of medical resources, but also help them be more proactive instead of reactive to long COVID-19 or even other outbreaks in the future.

Stress and job satisfaction over time, the influence of the managerial position: A bivariate longitudinal modelling of Wittyfit data

BACKGROUND

The managerial position affects stress and job satisfaction of workers, but these influences have always been studied separately.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to assess bivariate influence of the managerial position on workers' stress and job satisfaction and the inter-relationship of these indicators over time.

METHODS

We have analyzed data from workers who use the Wittyfit software, collected annually between 2018 and 2021. Stress and job satisfaction were evaluated by self-report questionnaires. Job position (manager or employee) was provided by the software's client companies.

RESULTS

Data of 704 workers were included in the study. Cross-sectional and longitudinal multivariate analyses revealed that managerial position improves job satisfaction (p<0.001), but not stress (p = 0.4). Overall, while workers' job satisfaction has improved (p<0.001), stress has remained stable over time (p = 0.3). Three latent groups, with specific evolutionary multi-trajectory of stress and job satisfaction were identified in the sample (entropy = 0.80). Age and seniority, but not gender tended to influence managers' and employees' indicators. Over time, stress and job satisfaction have tended to negatively interconnect, in cross-section and in a cross-lagged manner (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The managerial position improves workers' job satisfaction but has no effect on stress. Sociodemographics including age and seniority, but not gender, can affect this relationship. Stress and job satisfaction can influence each other, both cross-sectionally and over time. To be more effective, organizations should implement holistic strategies targeting multiple indicators.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02596737.

Time-dependent systolic blood pressure within 72 h after endovascular treatment in large vessel occlusion stroke

BACKGROUND

The association of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and ischemic stroke outcome has recently been proved to be varied at different time points within 72 h after acute ischemic stroke onset; however, the specific status of how SBP affects prognosis at different time points within 72 h after endovascular treatment (EVT) among patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO) remains unclear.

METHODS

Consecutive LVO patients treated with EVT were enrolled in our study. BP data were collected at eight time points (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 24, 48, and 72 h post-EVT). Outcome measure of interest was functional dependence, which was defined as mRS >2 at 90 days.

RESULTS

A total of 406 LVO patients treated with EVT from 2016 to 2022 were included. At 16 h after EVT, the relationship between SBP and functional dependence showed a nonlinear association. At other time points after EVT, SBP had linear relationships with functional dependence. Furthermore, higher SBP, as either a linear or quadratic term, had an adverse effect on functional outcome. In addition, three SBP trajectories were observed, and the high-to-low group was independently associated with functional dependence.

CONCLUSION

Taken together, higher SBP within the first 72 h after EVT has a time-dependent association with adverse clinical outcomes. Optimal blood pressure management during the first 72 h after EVT may be important to improve clinical outcome.

Trajectories of Parental Warmth and the Role They Play in Explaining Adolescent Prosocial Behavior

Adolescent prosocial behavior suggests social competence and it is associated with greater parental warmth yet the experience of warmth through child and adolescent development is not well understood as it relates to such prosocial behavior. A nationally representative dataset from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children cohort was used. The analyses involved multiple waves beginning when children were aged 4-5. The main analyses used a sample of 2723 adolescents aged 16-17 years (Mean, S.D. = 16.45, 0.50; 49.2% female, 50.8% male). Parental warmth trajectories (from ages 4-5 through 16-17 years) were created and used to explore the accumulated effect of a lifecourse of parental warmth on adolescent prosocial behavior as measured when adolescents were aged 16-17 years. There were three trajectories described as, consistent (28.7%), slight decline (51.4%), and declining warmth (19.8%). These were associated with prosocial behavior; adolescents with a slight decline in warmth were 2.2 times less likely than those with consistent warmth to have the highest prosocial behavior. Consistent parental warmth likely provides greatest benefit for increased prosocial behavior in mid-adolescence.

Group-based sleep trajectories in children and adolescents: A systematic review

Sleep is crucial for health and development. Evidence indicates that sleep changes over time and distinct subgroups may experience different longitudinal patterns. This study systematically reviewed the studies that used latent trajectory modeling to investigate sleep trajectories of children and adolescents aged 0-18 years, and summarized the associated determinants and health-related outcomes. We searched PubMed, Embase, CENTRAL, PsycINFO, and Web of Science, identifying 46 articles that met our criteria. To ensure the reliability of the review, only studies rated as good or fair in terms of methodological quality were included, resulting in a total of 36 articles. Group-based trajectories were identified on several sleep dimensions (i.e., sleep duration, general and specific sleep problems, and bed-sharing behavior) and three or four trajectories were reported in most studies. There was a convergence trend across sleep duration trajectories during the first six years of life. Studies on specific sleep problem (i.e., insomnia, night-waking, and sleep-onset difficulties) typically identified two trajectories: consistent, minimal symptoms or chronic yet fluctuating symptoms. Lower socioeconomic status, maternal depression, and night feeding behaviors were the most frequently reported determinants of sleep trajectories. Membership in a group with certain adverse patterns (e.g., persistent short sleep duration) was associated with increased risks of multiple negative health-related conditions, such as obesity, compromised immunity, neurological problems, substance use, or internalizing/externalizing symptoms. Generally, there is potential to improve the quality of studies in this field. Causality is hard to be inferred within the current body of literature. Future studies could emphasize early life sleep, incorporate more assessment timepoints, use objective measures, and employ experimental design to better understand changes of and mechanisms behind the various sleep trajectories and guide targeted interventions for at-risk subpopulations.

Cancer risk according to fasting blood glucose trajectories: a population-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes mellitus is known to increase the risk of cancer. Fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels can be changed over time. However, the association between FBG trajectory and cancer risk has been insufficiently studied. This research aims to examine the relationship between FBG trajectories and cancer risk in the Korean population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We analyzed data from the National Health Insurance Service-National Health Screening Cohort collected between 2002 and 2015. Group-based trajectory modeling was performed on 256,271 Koreans aged 40-79 years who had participated in health examinations at least three times from 2002 to 2007. After excluding patients with cancer history before 2008, we constructed a cancer-free cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model was applied to examine the association between FBG trajectories and cancer incidence by cancer type, after adjustments for covariates. Cancer case was defined as a person who was an outpatient thrice or was hospitalized once or more with a cancer diagnosis code within the first year of the claim.

RESULTS

During the follow-up time (2008-2015), 18,991 cancer cases were identified. Four glucose trajectories were found: low-stable (mean of FBG at each wave <100 mg/dL), elevated-stable (113-124 mg/dL), elevated-high (104-166 mg/dL), and high-stable (>177 mg/dL). The high-stable group had a higher risk of multiple myeloma, liver cancer and gastrointestinal cancer than the low-stable group, with HR 4.09 (95% CI 1.40 to 11.95), HR 1.68 (95% CI 1.25 to 2.26) and HR 1.27 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.45), respectively. In elevated-stable trajectory, the risk increased for all cancer (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) and stomach cancer (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.43). Significant associations were also found in the elevated-high group with oral (HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.01 to 4.47), liver (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.08) and pancreatic cancer (HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights that the uncontrolled high glucose level for many years may increase the risk of cancer.

Mental health of caregivers of children with medical complexity: group-based trajectory modelling

OBJECTIVE

To describe the mental health trajectories of caregivers of children with medical complexity (CMC) and explore child characteristics associated with below-average caregiver mental health.

DESIGN

A secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from 123 caregivers of children aged <16 years with medical complexity from a multicentre randomised trial conducted from December 2016 to June 2021.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Global Mental Health Scale was used to measure caregivers' self-reported mental health well-being. Group-based trajectory analysis was used to identify clusters of caregivers with similar changes in mental health across 24 months. Logistic regression was used to identify child-related predictors of mental health among caregivers.

RESULTS

A final model with three distinct groups was selected, corresponding to caregivers with average (n=39), moderately below-average (n=65) and severely below-average (n=19) mental health scores, all with stable trajectories and high posterior probabilities (>90%). Moderately and severely below-average caregiver mental health groups, merged into one group, were associated with a greater number of child medical technology devices (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.44, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.04), gross motor difficulties (aOR 3.51, 95% CI 1.02 to 12.05) and worse child emotional (aOR 0.93, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.99) and psychological well-being (aOR 0.93, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.99).

CONCLUSION

Most caregivers of CMC reported persistently below-average mental health. The intensity of caregiving, as indicated by medical technology and child functional needs, is a potential risk factor for below-average caregiver mental health. Future design and evaluation of interventions focused on support for caregivers of CMC are warranted.

Trajectories of anxiety and depression among Chinese men who have sex with men on pre-exposure prophylaxis: a group-based trajectory model approach

BACKGROUND

Anxiety and depression can influence adherence to Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP). However, there is limited research on the temporal dynamics of anxiety and depression among men who have sex with men (MSM) using PrEP.

METHODS

From December 2018 to November 2020, we administered the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) to participants in the China Real-World Oral Intake of PrEP (CROPrEP) to measure their anxiety and depression levels. The group-based trajectory model (GBTM) depicted the dynamic changes of anxiety and depression scores over time.

RESULTS

A total of 1023 MSM were included, with 4523 follow-up assessments. The GBTM categorized the trajectories into three distinct patterns: consistently low (54.8% for anxiety, 60.7% for depression), consistently moderate (39.3% for anxiety, 31.4% for depression), and high but bell-shaped (5.9% for anxiety, 7.9% for depression). Higher anxiety levels were associated with being aged 18-30 years old, earning less than US$619 per month, female-identifying, adopting the bottom sexual role with men, and having two or more anal sex partners in the past three months; similarly, higher depression levels correlated with a monthly income under US$619, female-identifying, sexual behavior as bottom and a positive syphilis at baseline. PrEP adherence was notably lower in the high but bell-shaped anxiety and depression group compared to the other groups, particularly at the 12th-month follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Close monitoring of anxiety and depression levels in MSM on PrEP is crucial. Provision of targeted mental health support is essential to enhance PrEP effectiveness.

Predictors of Free Sugars Intake Trajectories across Early Childhood-Results from the SMILE Birth Cohort Study

Foods and beverages high in free sugars can displace healthier choices and increase the risk of weight gain, dental caries, and noncommunicable diseases. Little is known about the intake of free sugars across early childhood. This study aimed to examine the longitudinal intake from 1 to 5 years of free sugars and identify the independent maternal and child-related predictors of intake in a cohort of Australian children participating in the Study of Mothers' and Infants' Life Events Affecting Oral Health (SMILE). Free sugars intake (FSI) was previously estimated at 1, 2, and 5 years of age, and three distinct FSI trajectories were determined using group-based trajectory modelling analysis. This study utilized multinomial logistic regression to identify the maternal and child-related predictors of the trajectories. The risk of following the 'high and increasing' trajectory of FSI compared to the 'low and fast increasing' trajectory was inversely associated with socio-economic disadvantage (aRRR 0.83; 95% CI 0.75-0.92; p < 0.001), lower for females (aRRR 0.56; 95% CI 0.32-0.98; p = 0.042), and higher in children with two or more older siblings at birth (aRRR 2.32; 95% CI 0.99-5.42; p = 0.052). Differences in trajectories of FSI were evident from an early age and a high trajectory of FSI was associated primarily with socio-economic disadvantage, providing another example of diet quality following a social gradient.

Implications of Mean Pulmonary Arterial Wedge Pressure Trajectories in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Rationale: The mean pulmonary arterial wedge pressure (mPAWP) is the critical hemodynamic factor differentiating group 1 pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) from group 2 pulmonary hypertension associated with left heart disease. Despite the discrepancy between the mPAWP upper physiologic normal and current PAH definitions, the implications of the initial mPAWP for PAH clinical trajectory are poorly understood. Objectives: To model longitudinal mPAWP trajectories in PAH over 10 years and examine the clinical and hemodynamic factors associated with trajectory membership. Methods: Adult patients with PAH with two or more right heart catheterizations were identified from a multiinstitution healthcare system in eastern Massachusetts. mPAWP trajectories were constructed via group-based trajectory modeling. Feature selection was performed in least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Logistic regression was used to assess associations between trajectory membership, baseline characteristics, and transplant-free survival. Measurements and Main Results: Among 301 patients with PAH, there were two distinct mPAWP trajectories, termed "mPAWP-high" (n = 71; 23.6%) and "mPAWP-low" (n = 230; 76.4%), based on the ultimate mPAWP value. Initial mPAWP clustered around median 12 mm Hg (interquartile range [IQR], 8-14 mm Hg) in the mPAWP-high and 9 mm Hg (IQR, 6-11 mm Hg) in the mPAWP-low trajectories (P < 0.001). After feature selection, initial mPAWP ⩾12 mm Hg predicted an mPAWP-high trajectory (odds ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-6.1; P = 0.0006). An mPAWP-high trajectory was associated with shorter transplant-free survival (vs. mPAWP-low, median, 7.8 vs. 11.3 yr; log-rank P = 0.017; age-adjusted P = 0.217). Conclusions: Over 10 years, the mPAWP followed two distinct trajectories, with 25% evolving into group 2 pulmonary hypertension physiology. Using routine baseline data, longitudinal mPAWP trajectory could be predicted accurately, with initial mPAWP ⩾12 mm Hg as one of the strongest predictors.

Periconceptional maternal diet quality and offspring wheeze trajectories: Japan Environment and Children's Study

BACKGROUND

The role of prenatal diet on childhood wheezing and subsequent risk of asthma is inconclusive, which may be partly due to the heterogeneity in wheezing phenotypes. We aimed to identify wheeze trajectories in early childhood and to examine their associations with periconceptional maternal diet quality.

METHODS

Data from 70,530 mother-child pairs of liveborn singletons from the Japan Environment and Children's Study were analysed. Wheezing was reported by caregivers using a modified International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood questionnaire yearly from 1 to 4 years of age, from which trajectories were derived using group-based trajectory modelling. Maternal diet in the year preceding the first trimester of pregnancy was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire; overall diet quality was determined using the balanced diet score based on the Japanese Food Guide Spinning Top. Bayesian inference of multinomial logistic regression models was performed to examine the association between maternal diet quality and wheeze trajectory in early childhood.

RESULTS

We identified four wheeze trajectories: 'never/infrequent' (69.1%; reference group), 'early-childhood onset' (6.2%), 'transient early' (16.5%) and 'persistent' (8.2%). After adjustment for confounders, a higher quartile of maternal balanced diet score was associated with a lower risk of belonging to the 'transient early' and 'persistent' wheeze trajectories compared with the 'never/infrequent' wheeze trajectory by 10% of both. Maternal balanced diet score was not associated with belonging to the 'early-childhood onset' wheeze trajectory.

CONCLUSION

Improving maternal diet quality prior to conception may reduce certain wheeze phenotypes in early childhood.

Group-based trajectory models of integrated vaccine delivery and equity in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Integrated vaccine delivery - the linkage of routine vaccination with provision of other essential health services - is a hallmark of robust primary care systems that has been linked to equitable improvements in population health outcomes.

METHODS

We gathered longitudinal data relating to routine immunization coverage and vaccination equity in 78 low- and middle-income countries that have ever received support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, using multiple imputation to handle missing values. We then estimated several group-based trajectory models to describe the relationship between integrated vaccine delivery and vaccination equity in these countries. Finally, we used multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of group membership.

RESULTS

We identified five distinct trajectories of geographic vaccination equity across both the imputed and non-imputed datasets, along with two and four trajectories of socioeconomic vaccination equity in the imputed and non-imputed datasets, respectively. Integration was associated with reductions in the slope index of inequality of measles vaccination in the countries analyzed. Integration was also associated with an increase in the percentage of districts reporting high measles vaccination coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

Integrated vaccine delivery is most strongly associated with improvements in vaccination equity in settings with high baseline levels of inequity. Continued scholarship is needed to further characterize the relationship between integration and health equity, as well as to improve measurement of vaccination coverage and integration.

How Real-World Data Can Facilitate the Development of Precision Medicine Treatment in Psychiatry

Precision medicine has the ambition to improve treatment response and clinical outcomes through patient stratification and holds great potential for the treatment of mental disorders. However, several important factors are needed to transform current practice into a precision psychiatry framework. Most important are 1) the generation of accessible large real-world training and test data including genomic data integrated from multiple sources, 2) the development and validation of advanced analytical tools for stratification and prediction, and 3) the development of clinically useful management platforms for patient monitoring that can be integrated into health care systems in real-life settings. This narrative review summarizes strategies for obtaining the key elements-well-powered samples from large biobanks integrated with electronic health records and health registry data using novel artificial intelligence algorithms-to predict outcomes in severe mental disorders and translate these models into clinical management and treatment approaches. Key elements are massive mental health data and novel artificial intelligence algorithms. For the clinical translation of these strategies, we discuss a precision medicine platform for improved management of mental disorders. We use cases to illustrate how precision medicine interventions could be brought into psychiatry to improve the clinical outcomes of mental disorders.

The impact of falls on activities of daily living in older adults: A retrospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Falls contribute to impairments in activities of daily living (ADLs), resulting in significant declines in the quality of life, safety, and functioning of older adults. Understanding the magnitude and duration of the effect of falls on ADLs, as well as identifying the characteristics of older adults more likely to have post-fall ADL impairment is critical to inform fall prevention and post-fall intervention. The purpose of this study is to 1) Quantify the association between falls and post-fall ADL impairment and 2) Model trajectories of ADL impairment pre- and post-fall to estimate the long-term impact of falls and identify characteristics of older adults most likely to have impairment.

METHOD

Study participants were from the Ginkgo Evaluation of Memory Study, a randomized controlled trial in older adults (age 75+) in the United States. Self-reported incident falls and ADL scores were ascertained every 6 months over a 7-year study period. We used Cox proportional hazards analyses (n = 2091) to quantify the association between falls and ADL impairment and latent class trajectory modeling (n = 748) to visualize trajectories of ADL impairment pre-and post-fall.

RESULTS

Falls reported in the previous 6 months were associated with impairment in ADLs (HR: 1.42; 95% CI 1.32, 1.52) in fully adjusted models. Based on trajectory modeling (n = 748), 19% (n = 139) of participants had increased, persistent ADL impairment after falling. Participants who were female, lived in a neighborhood with higher deprivation, or experienced polypharmacy were more likely to have ADL impairment post-fall.

CONCLUSIONS

Falls are associated with increased ADL impairment, and this impairment can persist over time. It is crucial that all older adults, and particularly those at higher risk of post-fall ADL impairment have access to comprehensive fall risk assessment and evidence-based fall prevention interventions, to help mitigate the negative impacts on ADL function.

Kidney function trajectories, associated factors, and outcomes in multiethnic Asian patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

We examined the trajectory of estimated glomerular filtrate rate (eGFR), associated risk factors, and its relationship with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among a multiethnic patient population with type 2 diabetes in Singapore.

METHODS

A follow-up study included 62 080 individuals with type 2 diabetes aged ≥18 years in a multi-institutional SingHealth Diabetes Registry between 2013 and 2019. eGFR trajectories were analyzed using latent class linear mixed models. Factors associated with eGFR trajectories were evaluated using multinomial logistic regression. The association of eGFR trajectories with ESKD was assessed via competing risk models.

RESULTS

Trajectory of kidney function, determined by eGFR, was nonlinear. The trajectory pattern was classified as stable initially then gradual decline (75%), progressive decline (21.9%), and rapid decline (3.1%). Younger age, female sex, Malay ethnicity, lower-income housing type, current smoking, higher glycated hemoglobin, lower low-density lipoprotein, higher triglyceride, uncontrolled blood pressure, albuminuria, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and higher eGFR levels each were associated with progressive or rapid decline. Compared with the trajectory of stable initially then gradual eGFR decline, progressive decline increased the hazard of ESKD by 6.14-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.96-7.61)) and rapid decline by 82.55 folds (95% CI: 55.90-121.89).

CONCLUSIONS

Three nonlinear trajectory classes of kidney function were identified among multiethnic individuals with type 2 diabetes in Singapore. About one in four individuals had a progressive or rapid decline in eGFR. Our results suggest that eGFR trajectories are correlated with multiple social and modifiable risk factors and inform the risk of ESKD.

ADCOMS sensitivity versus baseline diagnosis and progression phenotypes

BACKGROUND

The Alzheimer's Disease COMposite Score (ADCOMS) is more sensitive in clinical trials than conventional measures when assessing pre-dementia. This study compares ADCOMS trajectories using clustered progression characteristics to better understand different patterns of decline.

METHODS

Post-baseline ADCOMS values were analyzed for sensitivity using mean-to-standard deviation ratio (MSDR), partitioned by baseline diagnosis, comparing with the original scales upon which ADCOMS is based. Because baseline diagnosis was not a particularly reliable predictor of progression, individuals were also grouped into similar ADCOMS progression trajectories using clustering methods and the MSDR compared for each progression group.

RESULTS

ADCOMS demonstrated increased sensitivity for clinically important progression groups. ADCOMS did not show statistically significant sensitivity or clinical relevance for the less-severe baseline diagnoses and marginal progression groups.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis complements and extends previous work validating the sensitivity of ADCOMS. The large data set permitted evaluation-in a novel approach-by the clustered progression group.

Associations between maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy and trajectories of infant growth: A birth cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We examined the relationships between infants' growth trajectories and prenatal exposure to air pollution, which is still under-investigated.

METHODS

A birth cohort study was constructed using medical records of pregnant women and infants born between 2015 and 2019 in Foshan, China. Using satellite-based spatial-temporal models, prenatal exposure to air pollutants including particulate matter with an aerodynamic dimension of < 2.5 µm (PM2.5), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) was assessed at each woman's residence. Latent class growth modeling was used to identify trajectories of physical (body length and weight) growth and neurodevelopment, which were repeatedly measured within 1 year after birth. Logistic regression models were used to investigate the associations between prenatal exposure to air pollution and the risks of growth disorders, adjusting for an array of potential confounders.

RESULTS

We identified two growth trajectories for body length [normal: 3829 (93%); retardation: 288 (7%)], three for weight [normal: 2475 (59.6%); retardation: 390 (9.4%); overgrowth: 1287 (31%)], and two for neurodevelopment [normal: 956 (66.1%); retardation: 491 (33.9%)]. For exposure over whole pregnancy, SO2 was associated with an increased risk of body length retardation (OR for per 1 µg/m3 increment: 1.09, 95%CI: 1.01-1.17); PM2.5 (OR: 1.05, 95%CI: 1.03-1.07), SO2 (OR: 1.15, 95%CI: 1.08-1.22), and NO2 (OR: 1.05, 95%CI: 1.03-1.07) were positively associated with neurodevelopmental retardation. Such associations appeared stronger for exposures over the first and second trimesters. No significant associations were detected for weight growth.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy was associated with higher risks of impairments in both physical growth, particularly body length, and neurodevelopment.

Longitudinal trajectories of depressive symptoms among alcohol consuming men with HIV in India

BACKGROUND

Depression and alcohol use are common among people living with HIV (PLWH) and associated with adverse outcomes. However, there is a paucity of studies exploring trajectories of depressive symptom presence over time among alcohol consuming men PLWH.

METHODS

Men PLWH were repeatedly assessed for depressive symptoms from baseline through 27 months using the 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify trajectories of depressive symptoms over time among control (n = 188) and intervention participants (n = 564). Multinomial logistic regression was used to explore the relationship between trajectory subgroups and baseline independent variables.

RESULTS

Among intervention participants, the three subgroups were characterized as 'low' (85.8 % of the participants), 'fluctuating' (8.7 %), and 'persistently increasing' symptoms (5.5 %). Similarly, three trajectory subgroups among control participants were labeled as: "low" (54.4 %); "fluctuating" (33.5 %) and "persistently increasing'" (12.1 %). Among intervention participants, longer duration since HIV diagnosis (aOR: 1.05, 95 % CI: 1.01-1.12) and HIV-related stigma (aOR: 1.09, 95 % CI: 1.02-1.18) were associated with persistently increasing depressive symptoms trajectory. Further, alcohol drinking problems (aOR: 1.10, 95 % CI: 1.04-1.17) was associated with fluctuating depressive symptoms trajectory. Among control participants, only lower overall self-rated health status was associated with persistently increasing depressive symptoms trajectory (aOR: 0.96, 95 % CI: 0.93-0.99).

LIMITATIONS

Selection bias; Information bias; Lack of causal interference; Generalizability.

CONCLUSION

Identifying subgroups of men PLWH with different depressive symptoms trajectories may inform effective and tailored intervention approaches to address mental health treatment and prevention among alcohol consuming men PLWH in India and elsewhere.

Application of life course trajectory methods to public health data: A comparison of sequence analysis and group-based multi-trajectory modeling for modelling childhood adversity trajectories

There is increasing awareness of the importance of modelling life course trajectories to unravel how social, economic and health factors relate to health over time. Different methods have been developed and applied in public health to classify individuals into groups based on characteristics of their life course. However, the application and results of different methods are rarely compared. We compared the application and results of two methods to classify life course trajectories of individuals, i.e. sequence analysis and group-based multi-trajectory modeling (GBTM), using public health data. We used high-resolution Danish nationwide register data on 926,160 individuals born between 1987 and 2001, including information on the yearly occurrence of 7 childhood adversities in 2 dimensions (i.e. family poverty and family dynamics). We constructed childhood adversity trajectories from 0 to 15 years by applying (1) sequence analysis using optimal matching and cluster analysis using Ward's method and (2) GBTM using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson regressions. We identified 2 to 8 cluster solutions using both methods and determined the optimal solution for both methods. Both methods generated a low adversity, a poverty, and a consistent or high adversity cluster. The 5-cluster solution using sequence analysis additionally included a household psychiatric illness and a late adversity cluster. The 4-group solution using GBTM additionally included a moderate adversity cluster. Compared with the solution obtained through sequence analysis, the solution obtained through GBTM contained fewer individuals in the low adversity cluster and more in the other clusters. We find that the two methods generate qualitatively similar solutions, but the quantitative distributions of children over the groups are different. The method of choice depends on the type of data available and the research question of interest. We provide a comprehensive overview of important considerations and benefits and drawbacks of both methods.

Characterization of trajectories of physical activity and cigarette smoking from early adolescence to adulthood

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking and physical inactivity are two critical risk factors for noncommunicable diseases and all-cause mortality. However, few studies have compared the long-term trajectories of both behaviors, as well as multilevel factors associated with trajectory patterns. Using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) Wave I through V survey data, this study characterized distinct subgroups of the population sharing similar behavioral patterns from adolescence to adulthood, as well as predictors of subgroup membership for physical activity (PA) and cigarette smoking behavior respectively.

METHODS

Using the Add Health Wave I through V survey data, we identified the optimal number of latent classes and class-specific trajectories of PA and cigarette smoking from early adolescence to adulthood, fitting latent growth mixture models with standardized PA score and past 30-day cigarette smoking intensity as outcome measures and age as a continuous time variable. Associations of baseline sociodemographic factors, neighborhood characteristics, and sociopsychological factors with trajectory class membership were assessed using multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

We identified three distinct subgroups of non-linear PA trajectories in the study population: moderately active group (N = 1067, 5%), persistently inactive group (N = 14,257, 69%) and worsening activity group (N = 5410, 26%). Foror cigarette smoking, we identified three distinct non-linear trajectory subgroups: persistent non-smoker (N = 14,939, 72%), gradual quitter (N = 2357, 11%), and progressing smoker (N = 3393, 16%). Sex, race/ethnicity, neighborhood environment and perceived peer support during adolescence were significant predictors of both physical activity and cigarette smoking trajectory subgroup membership from early adolescence to adulthood.

CONCLUSIONS

There are three distinct subgroups of individuals sharing similar PA and cigarette smoking behavioral profile respectively from adolescence to adulthood in the Add Health study population. Behavioral interventions that focus on neighborhood environment (e.g. establish community-based activity center) and relationship to peers during adolescence (e.g. peer counseling) could be key to long-term PA promotion and cigarette smoking cessation.

Cancer Risk According to Alcohol Consumption Trajectories: A Population-based Cohort Study of 2.8 Million Korean Men

BACKGROUND

Alcohol drinking behaviors change temporally and can lead to changes in related cancer risks; previous studies have been unable to identify the association between the two using a single-measurement approach. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the association of drinking trajectories with the cancer risk in Korean men.

METHODS

A trajectory analysis using group-based trajectory modeling was performed on 2,839,332 men using data on alcohol drinking levels collected thrice during the Korean National Health Insurance Service's general health screening program conducted between 2002 and 2007. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to evaluate the associations between drinking trajectories and cancer incidence, after adjustments for age, income, body mass index, smoking status, physical activity, family history of cancer, and comorbidities.

RESULTS

During 10.5 years of follow-up, 189,617 cancer cases were recorded. Six trajectories were determined: non-drinking, light, moderate, decreasing-heavy, increasing-heavy, and steady-heavy. Light-to-heavy alcohol consumption increased the risk for all cancers combined in a dose-dependent manner (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.05 for light drinking, aHR 1.06; 95% CI 1.05-1.08 for moderate drinking, aHR 1.19; 95% CI, 1.16-1.22 for decreasing-heavy drinking, aHR 1.23; 95% CI, 1.20-1.26 for increasing-heavy drinking, and aHR 1.33; 95% CI, 1.29-1.38 for steady-heavy drinking [P-trend <0.001]). Light-to-heavy alcohol consumption was linked to lip, oral cavity, pharyngeal, esophageal, colorectal, laryngeal, stomach, and gallbladder and biliary tract cancer risks, while heavy alcohol consumption was associated with hepatic, pancreatic, and lung cancer risks. An inverse association was observed for thyroid cancer. The cancer risks were lower for decreasing-heavy drinkers, compared to steady-heavy drinkers.

CONCLUSION

No safe drinking limits were identified for cancer risks; reduction in heavy intake had protective effects.

Correlates and trajectories of loneliness among community-dwelling older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic: A Canadian longitudinal study

The COVID-19 pandemic provided a unique opportunity to examine the contributions of social interaction and other non-social factors to loneliness among older adults in the context of confinement measures constraining opportunities for in-person social interactions. This study aims to identify groups of individuals with heterogeneous trajectories of loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic and to explore the sociodemographic, health, psychological and social interaction-related factors associated with these trajectories. In this 12-month longitudinal study, 614 community-dwelling individuals aged 60+ years completed telephone-based interviews on four occasions between May 2020 and May 2021. Loneliness was evaluated using the three-item version of the UCLA Loneliness Scale. Multilevel modelling assessed average changes in loneliness over time. Group-based trajectory modelling was performed to identify distinct trajectories of loneliness over time. Multinomial logistic regressions were conducted to explore the predictors of these trajectories. On average, there was a curvilinear change in loneliness that tracked the stringency of the COVID-19-related confinement measures. In this convenience sample, three heterogeneous trajectories were identified: a stable-low (17.2%), a fluctuating-moderate (48.8%) and a sustained-elevated (34.0%) trajectory. Participants in the sustained-elevated loneliness trajectory were more likely to live alone and experience elevated psychological distress and greater COVID-19 perceived health threat compared to those in the stable-low trajectory. Participants in the fluctuating-moderate loneliness group were more likely to have multimorbidity, experience greater psychological distress, and have less frequent in-person interactions than the stable-low loneliness group. Assessing the combination of sociodemographic, health, psychological and social factors may help identify individuals at higher risk for chronic loneliness.

Study on the trajectory of depression among middle-aged and elderly disabled people in China: Based on group-based trajectory model

Background

Previous studies have shown that middle-aged and elderly adults with disabilities are at higher risk for depressive symptoms. However, there are few studies on the long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms in the Chinese middle-aged and elderly disabled population.

Objective

This study aimed to identify the different development trajectories of depressive symptoms and their influencing factors in middle-aged and elderly people with disabilities in China.

Methods

Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018, a longitudinal cohort was formed for the study. A total of 2053 participants underwent at least two measures of depressive symptoms, assessed using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D10), a depression symptom assessment scale. We constructed a Group-Based Trajectory Model (GBTM) to identify the development trajectory of depressive symptoms in 2053 middle-aged and elderly disabled individuals, screened the potential predictors using lasso regression, and analyzed the factors affecting the development trajectory of depression through multivariate logistic regression.

Results

We identified four depression symptom trajectories throughout the follow-up process: "low depressive symptom group", "worsening depressive symptom group", "relieved depressive symptom group", and "high depressive symptom group". We found that there were differences in basic characteristics among different subgroups of depression trajectory. However, middle-aged and elderly disabled women living in rural areas, with limited ADL or IADL, physical pain, poor self-reported health and self-reported memory, short sleep time, and no relatives and friends to take care of them were the key groups for the prevention and treatment of depressive symptoms.

Conclusion

There is heterogeneity in the trajectories of depressive symptoms in the Chinese middle-aged and elderly disabled population, it is necessary to focus on the characteristics of the trajectories of different subgroups.

Trajectories of antepartum depressive symptoms and birthweight: a multicenter and prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antepartum depression is a prevalent unhealthy mental health problem worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. It is a major contributor to adverse birth outcomes. Previous studies linking antepartum depression to birthweight have yielded conflicting results, which may be the reason that the depressive symptoms were only measured once during pregnancy. This study aimed to explore the associations between trajectories of antepartum depressive symptoms and birthweight.

METHODS

Depressive symptoms were assessed prospectively at each trimester in 3699 pregnant women from 24 hospitals across 15 provinces in China, using the Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Scale (EPDS). Higher scores of EPDS indicated higher levels of depressive symptoms. Associations between trajectories of depressive symptoms and birthweight were examined using group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM), propensity score-based inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), and logistic regression.

RESULTS

GBTM identified five trajectories. Compared with the low-stable trajectory of depressive symptoms, only high-stable (OR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.15-2.52) and moderate-rising (OR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.12-1.85) had an increased risk of low birthweight (LBW) in the adjusted longitudinal analysis of IPTW. There was no significant increase in the risk of LBW in moderate-stable and high-falling trajectories. However, trajectories of depressive symptoms were not associated with the risk of macrosomia.

CONCLUSION

Antepartum depressive symptoms were not constant. Trajectories of depressive symptoms were associated with the risk of LBW. It is important to optimize and implement screening, tracking, and intervention protocols for antepartum depression, especially for high-risk pregnant women, to prevent LBW.

Trajectories and determinants of acute stress disorder during the COVID-19 centralized quarantine: A latent class growth analysis

COVID-19 centralized quarantine may cause acute stress disorder (ASD). However, it is unknown how individuals present heterogeneous ASD trajectories during the COVID-19 centralized quarantine and what factors contribute to these patterns. This study aimed to identify the ASD trajectories and their determinants during the centralized quarantine period, and the mediating effects of resilience on these associations. A longitudinal survey with three waves was conducted in a randomly selected quarantine hotel in Shenzhen, China from October to November 2020. A total of 273 participants completed online measures assessing ASD symptoms, Eysenck's personality constructs of extraversion (E), neuroticism (N), psychoticism (P), and resilience on Day 1, and reported ASD symptoms on Days 7 and 14 during their 14-day centralized quarantine periods. Latent class growth analysis identified three trajectories: constantly high symptoms (CHS, 4.76%), decreasing symptoms (DS, 11.72%), and constantly low symptoms (CLS, 83.52%). The CHS and DS subgroups both reported lower E and higher N scores, but not P, compared with the CLS subgroup. Resilience mediated the effects of three personality constructs on ASD trajectories, except for the association between N and DS membership. Our study highlights the heterogeneity in stress responses to the COVID-19 centralized quarantine. The high-risk subgroup with persistent ASD symptoms was characterized by lower E and higher N. The resilience process accounted for the effects of personality in shaping distinct ASD trajectories. Our findings have implications to detect the populations vulnerable to ASD and provide insights for developing timely resilience enhancement intervention programs.

Trajectories of primary health care utilization: a 10-year follow-up after the Swedish Patient Choice Reform of primary health care

BACKGROUND

In January 2010, the choice reform was instituted in Swedish primary health care establishing free entry for private primary health care providers and enabling patients to choose freely among primary health care centers. The motivation behind the reform was to improve access to primary care and responsiveness to patient expectations. Reform effects on health care utilization have previously been investigated by using subgroup analyses assuming a pattern of homogeneous subgroups of the population. By using a different methodological approach, the aim of this study was to, from an equity perspective, investigate long term trends of primary health care utilization following the choice reform.

METHOD

A closed cohort was created based on register data from Region Skåne, the third most populated region in Sweden, describing individuals' health care utilization between 2007-2017. Using a novel approach, utilization data, measured as primary health care visits, was matched with socioeconomic and geographic determinants, and analyzed using logistic regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 659,298 individuals were included in the cohort. Sex differences in utilization were recorded to decrease in the older age group and to increase in the younger age group. Multivariable logistic regression showed increasing utilization in older men to be associated with higher socioeconomic position, while in women it was associated with lower socioeconomic position. Furthermore, groups of becoming high utilizers were all associated with lower socioeconomic position and with residence in urban areas.

CONCLUSION

The impact of demographic, socioeconomic and geographic determinants on primary health care utilization varies in magnitude and direction between groups of the population. As a result, the increase in utilization as observed in the general population following the choice reform is unevenly distributed between different population groups.

Characterizing blood pressure trajectories in people living with HIV following antiretroviral therapy: A systematic review

OBJECTIVES

The advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has reduced AIDS-related morbidity and mortality among people living with HIV (PLWH). Due to increased survival, PLWH have now been found to be at risk of chronic conditions related to ageing, such as cardiovascular disease (CVD). Hypertension is common in PLWH and is a major risk factor for the development of CVD. We conducted a systematic literature review to evaluate the research evidence on longitudinal blood pressure (BP) trajectories following ART initiation in PLWH.

METHODS

We searched the following databases: PubMed, CINHAL, Scopus, and Web of Science (up to 15 March 2021) for peer-reviewed published studies that reported BP trajectories following ART initiation in PLWH. Three reviewers independently screened all studies by title and abstract. We included articles in English, published up to March 2021, that report office BP trajectories in PLWH initiating ART. A total of 10 publications met our inclusion criteria. Eight studies were prospective cohorts and two were retrospective.

RESULTS

Nine out of 10 studies in the literature reported an increase in systolic BP (4.7-10.0 mmHg in studies with a follow-up range of 6 months to 8 years, and 3.0-4.7 mmHg/year in time-averaged studies). In addition, four out of 10 studies reported increases in diastolic BP (2.3-8.0 mmHg for a 6 month to 6.8-year follow-up range and 2.3 mmHg/year).

CONCLUSION

Systolic BP consistently increases while diastolic BP changes are more heterogeneous following ART initiation in PLWH. However, the studies were highly variable with respect to population demographics, ART regimen and duration, and follow-up time. Nevertheless, given the risks of CVD complications, such as stroke, heart failure and myocardial infarction, associated with elevated BP, results highlight the importance of future research in this area. It will be important to better characterize BP trajectories over time, identify the most critical times for interventions to reduce BP, determine the long-term CVD consequences in PLWH with elevated BP, and understand how different ART regimens may or may not influence BP and CVD disease.

Global patterns of cancer transitions: A modelling study

Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden. Many countries experienced or are experiencing the transition that non-infection-related cancers replace infection-related cancers. We aimed to characterise burden changes for major types of cancers and identify global transition patterns. We focused on 10 most common cancers worldwide and extracted age-standardised incidence and mortality in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 through the Global Burden of Disease Study. Two-stage modelling design was used. First, we applied growth mixture models (GMMs) to identify distinct trajectories for incidence and mortality of each cancer type. Next, we performed latent class analysis to detect cancer transition patterns based on the categorisation results from GMMs. Kruskal-Wallis H tests were conducted to evaluate associations between transition patterns and socioeconomic indicators. Three distinct patterns were identified as unfavourable, intermediate and favourable stages. Trajectories of lung and breast cancers had the strongest association with transition patterns among men and women. The unfavourable stage was characterised by rapid increases in lung, breast and colorectal cancers alongside stable or decreasing burden of gastric, cervical, oesophageal and liver cancers. In contrast, the favourable stage exhibited rapid declines in most cancers. The unfavourable stage was associated with lower sociodemographic index, health expenditure, gross domestic product per capita and higher maternal mortality ratio (P < .001 for all associations). Our findings suggest that unfavourable, intermediate and favourable transition patterns exist. Countries and territories in the unfavourable stage tend to be socioeconomically disadvantaged, and tailored intervention strategies are needed in these resource-limited settings.

Concurrent changes in physical activity and physical functioning during retirement transition-a multi-trajectory analysis

BACKGROUND

Physical activity and physical functioning have been reported to change over retirement transition, but the results have been inconsistent, and the two constructs have not been studied concurrently. The objective of this study was to examine concurrent changes in physical activity and physical functioning during transition to retirement among public sector employees, and to examine if occupation, sex, marital status, body mass index (BMI), alcohol consumption and smoking status are associated with observed different multi-trajectory paths.

METHODS

3,550 participants of the Finnish Retirement and Aging study responded to an annual survey on physical activity and physical functioning (SF-36) before and after retirement. Group-based multi-trajectory analysis was used to identify clusters with dissimilar concurrent changes in physical activity and physical functioning. Multinomial regression analysis was used to describe the associations between covariates and the probability of being classified to a certain cluster.

RESULTS

Participants were 63.4 (SD 1.4) years old, 83% women, 65% professional workers. Four trajectories of concurrent changes in physical activity and physical functioning were identified, one with decreasing physical functioning and low activity, one with increasing high activity and stable high functioning and two with fluctuating moderate physical activity and stable high functioning. Single, women, obese participants and risk-users of alcohol were more likely to be classified into group with low physical activity and declining physical functioning.

CONCLUSIONS

Low physical activity below the level usually recommended was associated with lower physical functioning during retirement transition. These findings could be useful when planning interventions for retirees to maintain their physical functioning level.

Pre-pandemic trajectories of depressive symptomatology and their relation to depression during the COVID-19 pandemic: longitudinal study of English older people

BACKGROUND

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has affected depression, evidence of the role of pre-pandemic history of depression remains limited.

AIMS

We investigated how long-term trajectories of depressive symptomatology before the COVID-19 pandemic were related to depression during the pandemic, over and above the latest pre-pandemic depression status. Furthermore, we examined whether those experiencing depression closer to the pandemic were at higher risk during the pandemic.

METHOD

Employing data from waves 4-9 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2008-2009 to 2018-2019), we used group-based trajectory modelling on 3925 English older adults aged 50+ years to identify distinctive trajectories of elevated depressive symptoms (EDS). Fully adjusted logistic models were then used to examine the associations between trajectories and depression during the COVID-19 pandemic (June-July and November-December 2020).

RESULTS

We identified four classes of pre-pandemic trajectories of EDS. About 5% were classed as 'enduring EDS', 8% as 'increasing EDS', 10% as 'decreasing EDS' and 77% as 'absence of EDS'. Compared with respondents with absence of EDS, those with EDS history were more likely to have depression during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly those with enduring or increasing EDS in the previous 10 years. Moreover, the frequency of EDS was more crucial in predicting the risks of depression during the pandemic than the timing of the latest episode.

CONCLUSIONS

Trajectories of depressive symptomatology are an important risk factor for older adults' mental health, particularly in the context of crisis. Older people with enduring or increasing EDS should receive particular attention from policy makers when provisioning post-pandemic well-being support.

Longitudinal trajectories of sickness absence among young adults with a history of depression and anxiety symptoms in Sweden

BACKGROUND

Depression and anxiety are associated with increased risk of sickness absence (SA), yet the developmental patterns of SA remain unclear. We aimed to identify trajectories of SA in young adults with depression and/or anxiety, accounting for sociodemographic and occupational factors.

METHODS

Longitudinal study of 1445 twin individuals with elevated depressive/anxiety symptoms in late adolescence or young adulthood (age range: 19-30), assessed in Swedish surveys completed in 2005. Through linkage to nationwide registries, individuals were prospectively followed from 2006 to 2018. The outcome included consecutive annual days of SA, which were analyzed using group-based trajectory modeling. Multinomial logistic regression estimating odds ratios (OR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) was used to examine associations of age, sex, and educational level with the resulting SA trajectories.

RESULTS

Four distinct SA trajectories were identified in the total sample: 'high-increasing' (6 %), 'low-increasing' (12 %), 'high-decreasing' (13 %), and 'low-constant' (69 %). Increasing age was associated with higher odds of belonging to the low-increasing trajectory (OR = 1.07, 95 % CI = 1.02-1.12). Women had higher odds of belonging to the low-increasing trajectory (OR = 1.67, 95 % CI = 1.10-2.53), compared with men. Higher education was associated with lower odds of belonging to high-increasing (OR = 0.34, 95 % CI = 0.22-0.54) and high-decreasing (OR = 0.59, 95 % CI = 0.43-0.81) trajectories, compared with lower education. Few differences were observed in analyses stratified by occupational sector.

LIMITATIONS

Information on potential confounders (e.g., psychiatric comorbidity, work-environment factors) was not available.

CONCLUSIONS

Among young adults with prior depression/anxiety, close to every fifth showed rising SA trajectories over time. This calls for targeted strategies to improve public mental health already at young ages.

Relationship between heart rate variability and differential patterns of cortisol response to acute stressors in mid-life adults: A data-driven investigation

Cortisol and heart rate variability (HRV) are well-established biomarkers of the human stress response system. While a relationship between cortisol and HRV is assumed, few studies have found evidence of their correlation within single study designs. One complication for isolating such a relationship may lie in individual variability in the cortisol response to stress such that atypical cortisol responding (i.e., elevated or blunted) occurs. To-date, studies on the cortisol response have employed traditional mean-difference-based approaches to examine average magnitude change in cortisol over time. Alternatively, data-driven trajectory modelling, such as latent growth mixture modelling, may be advantageous for quantifying cortisol based on patterns of response over time. Latent growth mixture modelling was used in N = 386 adults to identify subgroups based on trajectories of cortisol responses to stress. The relationship between cortisol and HRV was tested within subgroups. Results revealed a 'prototypical' subgroup characterised by expected rise and fall in cortisol response to stress (n = 309), a 'decline' subgroup (n = 28) that declined in cortisol after stress, and a 'rise' subgroup (n = 49) that increased in cortisol after stress. Within the 'prototypical' subgroup, greater HRV during stress was associated with decline in cortisol after stress from its maximum (r (306) = 0.19, p < 0.001). This relationship failed to emerge in the 'decline' and 'rise' subgroups (p > 0.271). Results document different patterns of cortisol response to stress; among those who exhibit a 'prototypical' response, changes in HRV during stress are related to changes in cortisol after stress.

Identifying chronic low back pain phenotypic domains and characteristics accounting for individual variation: a systematic review

ABSTRACT

Interpatient variability is frequently observed among individuals with chronic low back pain (cLBP). This review aimed at identifying phenotypic domains and characteristics that account for interpatient variability in cLBP. We searched MEDLINE ALL (through Ovid), Embase Classic and EMBASE (through Ovid), Scopus, and CINAHL Complete (through EBSCOhost) databases. Studies that aimed to identify or predict cLBP different phenotypes were included. We excluded studies that focused on specific treatments. The methodological quality was assessed using an adaptation of the Downs and Black tool. Forty-three studies were included. Although the patient and pain-related characteristics used to identify phenotypes varied considerably across studies, the following were among the most identified phenotypic domains and characteristics that account for interpatient variability in cLBP: pain-related characteristics (including location, severity, qualities, and duration) and pain impact (including disability, sleep, and fatigue), psychological domains (including anxiety and depression), behavioral domains (including coping, somatization, fear avoidance, and catastrophizing), social domains (including employment and social support), and sensory profiling (including pain sensitivity and sensitization). Despite these findings, our review showed that the evidence on pain phenotyping still requires further investigation. The assessment of the methodological quality revealed several limitations. We recommend adopting a standard methodology to enhance the generalizability of the results and the implementation of a comprehensive and feasible assessment framework to facilitate personalized treatments in clinical settings.