Development of an economic model to assess the cost effectiveness of treatment interventions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Cost effectiveness of a novel swallowing and respiratory sensation assessment and a modelled intervention to reduce acute exacerbations of COPD

Swallowing impairment observed in ~ 20% of people with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) may increase the risk of aspiration pneumonia and acute exacerbations. We designed a decision analytic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of the Swallowing and Respiratory Sensation Assessment (SwaRSA) tests and swallowing rehabilitation to reduce COPD exacerbations. We believe that swallowing rehabilitation to improve coordination of swallowing and breathing may reduce exacerbations in people with COPD.From the Australia health system perspective, we assessed the cost effectiveness of four tests relative to standard of care, or no testing, over a time horizon of one year. The SwaRSA tests assessed relative to a standard of care arm of no testing: included the Eating Assessment Tool (EAT-10) score, Swallowing Capacity of Liquids, Tongue Strength Assessment, and Respiratory Sensation Assessment, in people with moderate to severe COPD. Outcome measures were COPD exacerbations per year, which were converted into quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Model inputs including costs, test sensitivities and specificities, COPD exacerbation risks, and exacerbation-related utilities were derived from published sources. Our assumptions on the costs, recovery, and risk reduction are based on the available data on pulmonary rehabilitation in COPD.Relative to no-SwaRSA, three individual testing strategies were found to be cost-effective at incremental cost effectiveness ratio per QALY ranging from $27,000 to $37,000 AUD assuming a willingness to pay of $50,000 AUD. The EAT-10 and the tongue strength were the two dominant options on the cost-effectiveness frontier. Model results were robust to variations in one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.In COPD, SwaRSA modelling suggests that self-assessment with the EAT-10 and subsequent intervention is highly cost-effective relative to no-SwaRSA.

Benefit-Harm Analysis of Earlier Initiation of Triple Therapy for Prevention of Acute Exacerbation in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Rationale: Reducing the risk of exacerbation is a fundamental goal in managing stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Guidelines recommend triple therapy (inhaled corticosteroids, long-acting muscarinic antagonists, and long-acting β-agonists) only as a stepup from dual therapy (long-acting muscarinic antagonists and long-acting β-agonists) for patients at continued high risk of exacerbation, because of the trade-off of an increased risk of pneumonia associated with inhaled corticosteroid-containing therapies. However, there is little evidence on the optimum timing of initiating triple therapy. Objectives: To perform a benefit-harm analysis to evaluate the net benefit of earlier initiation of triple therapy for the prevention of acute exacerbations in patients with COPD compared with standard timing recommended in current guidelines. Methods: We used a validated whole-disease microsimulation model of COPD in the Canadian general population aged ⩾40 years to determine the benefit versus harm of earlier initiation of triple therapy over a 20-year time horizon compared with standard care. We assessed net change in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) from the reduction in risk of acute exacerbations and the increased risk of treatment-related pneumonia in subgroups of patients with COPD defined by exacerbation history, symptoms, and disease severity. Model parameters were determined from clinical trials and other published literature. Key parameters were varied in one-way sensitivity analysis. Results: In patients at high risk of acute exacerbation (54.7% female; mean age, 74.0 yr; 68% Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease grades I and II), earlier initiation of triple therapy was associated with a net QALY gain of 4.8 per 100 patients with COPD over 20 years compared with standard care. The net QALY gain increased to 5.9 per 100 patients in the subgroup of patients with a high symptom burden (modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scale score, >1). Earlier initiation remained net beneficial in all subgroup and sensitivity analysis scenarios. Conclusions: Modeling suggests that earlier initiation of triple therapy is likely to be net beneficial for patients at high risk of acute exacerbation, with an even greater benefit to patients with a high symptom burden. Further clinical research is needed to verify these findings in empirical studies.

Budget impact analysis of adopting primary care-based case detection of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the Canadian general population

BACKGROUND

An estimated 70% of Canadians with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have not received a diagnosis, creating a barrier to early intervention, and there is growing interest in the value of primary care-based opportunistic case detection for COPD. We sought to build on a previous cost-effectiveness analysis by evaluating the budget impact of adopting COPD case detection in the Canadian general population.

METHODS

We used a validated discrete-event microsimulation model of COPD in the Canadian general population aged 40 years and older to assess the costs of implementing 8 primary care-based case detection strategies over 5 years (2022-2026) from the health care payer perspective. Strategies varied in eligibility criteria (based on age, symptoms or smoking history) and testing technology (COPD Diagnostic Questionnaire [CDQ] or screening spirometry). Costs were determined from Canadian studies and converted to 2021 Canadian dollars. Key parameters were varied in one-way sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

All strategies resulted in higher total costs compared with routine diagnosis. The most cost-effective scenario (the CDQ for all patients) had an associated total budget expansion of $423 million, with administering case detection and subsequent diagnostic spirometry accounting for 86% of costs. This strategy increased the proportion of individuals diagnosed with COPD from 30.4% to 37.8%, and resulted in 4.6 million referrals to diagnostic spirometry. Results were most sensitive to uptake in primary care.

INTERPRETATION

Adopting a national COPD case detection program would be an effective method for increasing diagnosis of COPD, dependent on successful uptake. However, it will require prioritisation by budget holders and substantial additional investment to improve access to diagnostic spirometry.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Fixed-Dose Tiotropium/Olodaterol versus Tiotropium for COPD Patients in China

Purpose

Tiotropium/olodaterol (TIO/OLO) fixed-dose combination (FDC) can improve lung function and quality of life for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and is not inferior to other LAMA/LABAs. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of TIO/OLO FDC in patients with moderate to very severe COPD in China.

Methods

A Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of TIO/OLO FDC versus TIO in the treatment of COPD from Chinese health system perspective. Four health states were based on 2021 Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD 2021), which included moderate (GOLD II, 50% ≤ FEV1 ≤ 80% of predicted), severe (GOLD III, 30% ≤ FEV1 ≤ 50% of predicted) and very severe (GOLD IV, FEV1 > 30% of predicted) COPD and death. The model simulated in cycles yearly. The indicators of total costs, number of COPD exacerbations, life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were used as the model output. Costs and outcomes were discounted at a 5% annual rate. A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted over a 10-year time horizon. The threshold of incremental total cost per unit effectiveness gained (ICER) was 1.5 times of GDP per capita. Uncertainty was assessed by one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

Results

TIO/OLO was 0.007 QALYs more than TIO but 0.012 LYs lower, which increased the total cost by $2268.17 per patient, but the total exacerbations number was less. Incremental cost effectiveness analysis had shown that the ICER exceeded the willingness to pay threshold. Results were robust under most parameter variation, except the parameters of total drug cost of TIO/OLO FDC in univariate sensitivity analyses.

Conclusion

Although TIO/OLO FDC could reduce the exacerbation risk, it was not cost-effective, and needed to be repriced.

Drug combinations for inhalation: Current products and future development addressing disease control and patient compliance

Pulmonary delivery is an alternative route of administration with numerous advantages over conventional routes of administration. It provides low enzymatic exposure, fewer systemic side effects, no first-pass metabolism, and concentrated drug amounts at the site of the disease, making it an ideal route for the treatment of pulmonary diseases. Owing to the thin alveolar-capillary barrier, and large surface area that facilitates rapid absorption to the bloodstream in the lung, systemic delivery can be achieved as well. Administration of multiple drugs at one time became urgent to control chronic pulmonary diseases such as asthma and COPD, thus, development of drug combinations was proposed. Administration of medications with variable dosages from different inhalers leads to overburdening the patient and may cause low therapeutic intervention. Therefore, products that contain combined drugs to be delivered via a single inhaler have been developed to improve patient compliance, reduce different dose regimens, achieve higher disease control, and boost therapeutic effectiveness in some cases. This comprehensive review aimed to highlight the growth of drug combinations by inhalation over time, obstacles and challenges, and the possible progress to broaden the current options or to cover new indications in the future. Moreover, various pharmaceutical technologies in terms of formulation and device in correlation with inhaled combinations were discussed in this review. Hence, inhaled combination therapy is driven by the need to maintain and improve the quality of life for patients with chronic respiratory diseases; promoting drug combinations by inhalation to a higher level is a necessity.

Inhaled corticosteroids versus placebo for stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

The role of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been the subject of much uncertainty. COPD clinical guidelines currently recommend selective use of ICS. ICS are not recommended as monotherapy for people with COPD, and are only given in combination with long-acting bronchodilators due to greater efficacy of combination therapy. Incorporating and critiquing newly published placebo-controlled trials into the monotherapy evidence base may help to resolve ongoing uncertainties and conflicting findings about their role in this population.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the benefits and harms of inhaled corticosteroids, used as monotherapy versus placebo, in people with stable COPD, in terms of objective and subjective outcomes.

SEARCH METHODS

We used standard, extensive Cochrane search methods. The latest search date was October 2022.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised trials comparing any dose of any type of ICS, given as monotherapy, with a placebo control in people with stable COPD. We excluded studies of less than 12 weeks' duration and studies of populations with known bronchial hyper-responsiveness (BHR) or bronchodilator reversibility.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods. Our a priori primary outcomes were 1. exacerbations of COPD and 2. quality of life. Our secondary outcomes were 3. all-cause mortality, 4. lung function (rate of decline of forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1)), 5. rescue bronchodilator use, 6. exercise capacity, 7. pneumonia and 8. adverse events including pneumonia. ]. We used GRADE to assess certainty of evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

Thirty-six primary studies with 23,139 participants met the inclusion criteria. Mean age ranged from 52 to 67 years, and females were 0% to 46% of participants. Studies recruited across the severities of COPD. Seventeen studies were of duration longer than three months and up to six months and 19 studies were of duration longer than six months. We judged the overall risk of bias as low.  Long-term (more than six months) use of ICS as monotherapy reduced the mean rate of exacerbations in those studies where pooling of data was possible (generic inverse variance analysis: rate ratio 0.88 exacerbations per participant per year, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 0.94; I2 = 48%, 5 studies, 10,097 participants; moderate-certainty evidence; pooled means analysis: mean difference (MD) -0.05 exacerbations per participant per year, 95% CI -0.07 to -0.02; I2 = 78%, 5 studies, 10,316 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). ICS slowed the rate of decline in quality of life, as measured by the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (MD -1.22 units/year, 95% CI -1.83 to -0.60; I2 = 0%; 5 studies, 2507 participants; moderate-certainty evidence; minimal clinically importance difference 4 points). There was no evidence of a difference in all-cause mortality in people with COPD (odds ratio (OR) 0.94, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.07; I2 = 0%; 10 studies, 16,636 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Long-term use of ICS  reduced the rate of decline in FEV1 in people with COPD (generic inverse variance analysis: MD 6.31 mL/year benefit, 95% CI 1.76 to 10.85; I2 = 0%; 6 studies, 9829 participants; moderate-certainty evidence; pooled means analysis: 7.28 mL/year, 95% CI 3.21 to 11.35; I2 = 0%; 6 studies, 12,502 participants; moderate-certainty evidence).

ADVERSE EVENTS

in the long-term studies, the rate of pneumonia was increased in the ICS group, compared to placebo, in studies that reported pneumonia as an adverse event (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.88; I2 = 55%; 9 studies, 14,831 participants; low-certainty evidence). There was an increased risk of oropharyngeal candidiasis (OR 2.66, 95% CI 1.91 to 3.68; 5547 participants) and hoarseness (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.44 to 2.74; 3523 participants). The long-term studies that measured bone effects generally showed no major effect on fractures or bone mineral density over three years. We downgraded the certainty of evidence to moderate for imprecision and low for imprecision and inconsistency.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review updates the evidence base for ICS monotherapy with newly published trials to aid the ongoing assessment of their role for people with COPD. Use of ICS alone for COPD likely results in a reduction of exacerbation rates of clinical relevance, probably results in a reduction in the rate of decline of FEV1 of uncertain clinical relevance and likely results in a small improvement in health-related quality of life not meeting the threshold for a minimally clinically important difference. These potential benefits should be weighed up against adverse events (likely to increase local oropharyngeal adverse effects and may increase the risk of pneumonia) and probably no reduction in mortality. Though not recommended as monotherapy, the probable benefits of ICS highlighted in this review support their continued consideration in combination with long-acting bronchodilators. Future research and evidence syntheses should be focused in that area.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of national smoking cessation services among chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients in Thailand

AIMS

Thailand's national smoking cessation services (FAH-SAI clinics) were founded in 2010. A cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is needed to inform policymakers of the allocation and prioritization of the limited budget to maximize the value for money of reimbursing these services. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients would benefit from smoking cessation services. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of these multidisciplinary services compared to the usual care among COPD patients in Thailand from a societal perspective.

METHODS

We conducted a CEA from a societal perspective using a Markov model to simulate lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained by each smoking cessation intervention over the patient's lifetime. We derived the effectiveness of the smoking cessation services from a multicenter, longitudinal study of smoking cessation services in Thailand and estimated the natural quit rate, transition probabilities, health utility, and cost data from the published literature. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3%. Sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Compared to the usual care, FAH-SAI clinics were associated with higher costs (4,207 THB (US$133)) and improved QALYs (0.11), with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 37,675 THB/QALY (US$1,187/QALY). The effectiveness of FAH-SAI clinics was a key driver of the cost-effectiveness results. At the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB (US$5,042) per QALY gained, the probability of being cost-effective was 96.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

FAH-SAI clinics were cost-effective under Thailand's WTP threshold. Our results could inform policymakers in allocating resources to support smoking cessation services for COPD patients in Thailand.

The Efficacy and Cost-Effectiveness of Umeclidinium/Vilanterol versus Tiotropium in Symptomatic Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background

Both long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMAs) and long-acting β2-agonists (LABAs) are widely used in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). A novel LAMA/LABA combination of umeclidinium/vilanterol (UMEC/VI; 62.5 μg/25 μg) is approved for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) treatment.

Objective

This study aimed to assess the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of UMEC/VI versus tiotropium (TIO) 18 μg in symptomatic patients with COPD from the perspective of the Chinese National Healthcare System.

Methods

A simple analysis included three studies in the meta-analysis that compared UMEC/VI with TIO. A Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of UMEC/VI compared with TIO treatment in symptomatic patients with COPD. First, utilities, clinical efficacy, and adverse events obtained from the literature were utilized as model inputs. Costs were from Chinese average data, including local data. Costs were expressed in dollars based on 2020 prices. Then, the model outputs including drug costs, other medical costs, and total costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated. Costs and outcomes were discounted at a 5% annual rate. Furthermore, incremental cost-effective ratios (ICERs) were analyzed. Finally, the influences of changing parameters on the uncertainty of the results were assessed by means of one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

Results

This study revealed that UMEC/VI treatment had a higher rate of clinical efficacy in comparison with TIO, and the differences in the rate of adverse events between the two treatments were not significant. The results indicated that UMEC/VI was superior to TIO, which provided an increase in QALYs (0.002) and a total cost savings of $765.67 per patient over 3 years. In the base case, the ICER of UMEC/VI is -$397468.04/QALY compared with TIO, suggesting that UMEC/VI may be considered a dominant option over TIO. According to the Chinese medical system, the probability of UMEC/VI being cost-effective was 61.6% at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of $31554/QALY. Sensitivity analyses confirmed that the results were robust.

Conclusion

UMEC/VI could be considered a cost-effective treatment compared with TIO in symptomatic COPD patients from the Chinese National Healthcare System perspective. These results may help decision-makers in China when making judgements on which treatments to administer.

Cost-Effectiveness of Umeclidinium/Vilanterol versus Salmeterol/Fluticasone in Elderly Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases in China

Background

Fixed dose dual bronchodilators such as long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMAs) plus long-acting β2-agonists (LABAs) are a new and important inhaled preparation for COPD treatment in China. Among these, umeclidinium/vilanterol (UMEC/VIL) is increasingly being used in China, especially among the elderly.

Purpose

This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of maintenance treatment with UMEC/VIL compared with salmeterol/fluticasone (FSC) as one of the main therapeutic drugs for moderate to very severe COPD in China.

Methods

A Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and outcomes from a societal perspective in a 10-year time horizon. Patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD were treated with UMEC/VIL (62.5/25µg) or FSC (50/500ug). Data concerning clinical efficacy, costs, utilities, transition probability, exacerbation rate, and mortality were obtained from the published literature and official government datasets. The costs were presented in US dollars based on 2021 prices. The indicators of total costs, life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and mortality were used as the model output. Costs and outcomes were discounted at a 5% annual rate. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated considering the threshold recommended by WHO. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the stability of results.

Results

Compared with FSC, treatment with UMEC/VIL could save $1947.18, with a gain of 0.12 life-years and 0.05 QALYs. Further, 28.0% patients treated with UMEC/VIL and 29.2% patients treated with FSC were predicted to die after 10 years. Incremental cost effectiveness analysis showed that UMEC/VIL was dominant to FSC. Sensitivity analyses confirmed that the results were robust.

Conclusion

UMEC/VIL is a cost-effective treatment option compared with FSC among patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD.

Smoking cessation medicines and e-cigarettes: a systematic review, network meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking is one of the leading causes of early death. Varenicline [Champix (UK), Pfizer Europe MA EEIG, Brussels, Belgium; or Chantix (USA), Pfizer Inc., Mission, KS, USA], bupropion (Zyban; GlaxoSmithKline, Brentford, UK) and nicotine replacement therapy are licensed aids for quitting smoking in the UK. Although not licensed, e-cigarettes may also be used in English smoking cessation services. Concerns have been raised about the safety of these medicines and e-cigarettes.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the clinical effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation medicines and e-cigarettes.

DESIGN

Systematic reviews, network meta-analyses and cost-effectiveness analysis informed by the network meta-analysis results.

SETTING

Primary care practices, hospitals, clinics, universities, workplaces, nursing or residential homes.

PARTICIPANTS

Smokers aged ≥ 18 years of all ethnicities using UK-licensed smoking cessation therapies and/or e-cigarettes.

INTERVENTIONS

Varenicline, bupropion and nicotine replacement therapy as monotherapies and in combination treatments at standard, low or high dose, combination nicotine replacement therapy and e-cigarette monotherapies.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Effectiveness - continuous or sustained abstinence. Safety - serious adverse events, major adverse cardiovascular events and major adverse neuropsychiatric events.

DATA SOURCES

Ten databases, reference lists of relevant research articles and previous reviews. Searches were performed from inception until 16 March 2017 and updated on 19 February 2019.

REVIEW METHODS

Three reviewers screened the search results. Data were extracted and risk of bias was assessed by one reviewer and checked by the other reviewers. Network meta-analyses were conducted for effectiveness and safety outcomes. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using an amended version of the Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes model.

RESULTS

Most monotherapies and combination treatments were more effective than placebo at achieving sustained abstinence. Varenicline standard plus nicotine replacement therapy standard (odds ratio 5.75, 95% credible interval 2.27 to 14.90) was ranked first for sustained abstinence, followed by e-cigarette low (odds ratio 3.22, 95% credible interval 0.97 to 12.60), although these estimates have high uncertainty. We found effect modification for counselling and dependence, with a higher proportion of smokers who received counselling achieving sustained abstinence than those who did not receive counselling, and higher odds of sustained abstinence among participants with higher average dependence scores. We found that bupropion standard increased odds of serious adverse events compared with placebo (odds ratio 1.27, 95% credible interval 1.04 to 1.58). There were no differences between interventions in terms of major adverse cardiovascular events. There was evidence of increased odds of major adverse neuropsychiatric events for smokers randomised to varenicline standard compared with those randomised to bupropion standard (odds ratio 1.43, 95% credible interval 1.02 to 2.09). There was a high level of uncertainty about the most cost-effective intervention, although all were cost-effective compared with nicotine replacement therapy low at the £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year threshold. E-cigarette low appeared to be most cost-effective in the base case, followed by varenicline standard plus nicotine replacement therapy standard. When the impact of major adverse neuropsychiatric events was excluded, varenicline standard plus nicotine replacement therapy standard was most cost-effective, followed by varenicline low plus nicotine replacement therapy standard. When limited to licensed interventions in the UK, nicotine replacement therapy standard was most cost-effective, followed by varenicline standard.

LIMITATIONS

Comparisons between active interventions were informed almost exclusively by indirect evidence. Findings were imprecise because of the small numbers of adverse events identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined therapies of medicines are among the most clinically effective, safe and cost-effective treatment options for smokers. Although the combined therapy of nicotine replacement therapy and varenicline at standard doses was the most effective treatment, this is currently unlicensed for use in the UK.

FUTURE WORK

Researchers should examine the use of these treatments alongside counselling and continue investigating the long-term effectiveness and safety of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation compared with active interventions such as nicotine replacement therapy.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016041302.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 59. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Cost Effectiveness of Case Detection Strategies for the Early Detection of COPD

OBJECTIVES

The value of early detection and treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is currently unknown. We assessed the cost effectiveness of primary care-based case detection strategies for COPD.

METHODS

A previously validated discrete event simulation model of the general population of COPD patients in Canada was used to assess the cost effectiveness of 16 case detection strategies. In these strategies, eligible patients (based on age, smoking history, or symptoms) received the COPD Diagnostic Questionnaire (CDQ) or screening spirometry, at 3- or 5-year intervals, during routine visits to a primary care physician. Newly diagnosed patients received treatment for smoking cessation and guideline-based inhaler pharmacotherapy. Analyses were conducted over a 20-year time horizon from the healthcare payer perspective. Costs are in 2019 Canadian dollars ($). Key treatment parameters were varied in one-way sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Compared to no case detection, all 16 case detection scenarios had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) below $50,000/QALY gained. In the most efficient scenario, all patients aged ≥ 40 years received the CDQ at 3-year intervals. This scenario was associated with an incremental cost of $287 and incremental effectiveness of 0.015 QALYs per eligible patient over the 20-year time horizon, resulting in an ICER of $19,632/QALY compared to no case detection. Results were most sensitive to the impact of treatment on the symptoms of newly diagnosed patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Primary care-based case detection programs for COPD are likely to be cost effective if there is adherence to best-practice recommendations for treatment, which can alleviate symptoms in newly diagnosed patients.

Cost-Effectiveness Of Once-Daily Single-Inhaler Triple Therapy In COPD: The IMPACT Trial

Background

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of single-inhaler fluticasone furoate (FF)/umeclidinium (UMEC)/vilanterol (VI) versus FF/VI or UMEC/VI from a Canadian public healthcare perspective, incorporating data from the IMPACT trial in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (NCT02164513).

Methods

Baseline inputs and treatment effects from IMPACT were populated into the validated GALAXY-COPD disease progression model. Canadian unit costs and drug costs (Canadian dollars [C$], 2017) were applied to healthcare resource utilization and treatments. Future costs and health outcomes were discounted at 1.5% annually. Analyses were probabilistic, and outputs included exacerbation rates, costs, and life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained.

Results

Compared with FF/VI and UMEC/VI over a lifetime horizon, the analyses predicted that treatment with FF/UMEC/VI resulted in fewer moderate and severe exacerbations, more LYs and more QALYs gained, with a small incremental cost. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY gained was C$18,989 (95% confidence interval [CI]: C$14,665, C$25,753) versus FF/VI and C$13,776 (95% CI: C$9787, C$19,448) versus UMEC/VI. FF/UMEC/VI remained cost-effective versus both FF/VI and UMEC/VI in all sensitivity analyses, including in scenario analyses that considered different intervention and comparator discontinuation rates, and treatment effects for subsequent therapy.

Conclusion

Treatment with FF/UMEC/VI was predicted to improve outcomes and be a cost-effective treatment option for patients with symptomatic COPD and a history of exacerbations compared with FF/VI or UMEC/VI, in Canada.

A Novel Method for Analysing Frequent Observations from Questionnaires in Order to Model Patient-Reported Outcomes: Application to EXACT® Daily Diary Data from COPD Patients

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a progressive lung disease with approximately 174 million cases worldwide. Electronic questionnaires are increasingly used for collecting patient-reported-outcome (PRO) data about disease symptoms. Our aim was to leverage PRO data, collected to record COPD disease symptoms, in a general modelling framework to enable interpretation of PRO observations in relation to disease progression and potential to predict exacerbations. The data were collected daily over a year, in a prospective, observational study. The e-questionnaire, the EXAcerbations of COPD Tool (EXACT®) included 14 items (i.e. questions) with 4 or 5 ordered categorical response options. An item response theory (IRT) model was used to relate the responses from each item to the underlying latent variable (which we refer to as disease severity), and on each item level, Markov models (MM) with 4 or 5 categories were applied to describe the dependence between consecutive observations. Minimal continuous time MMs were used and parameterised using ordinary differential equations. One hundred twenty-seven COPD patients were included (median age 67 years, 54% male, 39% current smokers), providing approximately 40,000 observations per EXACT® item. The final model suggested that, with time, patients more often reported the same scores as the previous day, i.e. the scores were more stable. The modelled COPD disease severity change over time varied markedly between subjects, but was small in the typical individual. This is the first IRT model with Markovian properties; our analysis proved them necessary for predicting symptom-defined exacerbations.

Development and Validation of the Evaluation Platform in COPD (EPIC): A Population-Based Outcomes Model of COPD for Canada

BACKGROUND

We report the development, validation, and implementation of an open-source population-based outcomes model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for Canada.

METHODS

Evaluation Platform in COPD (EPIC) is a discrete-event simulation model of Canadians 40 years of age or older. Three core features of EPIC are its open-population design (incorporating projections of future population growth, aging, and smoking trends), its incorporation of heterogeneity in lung function decline and burden of exacerbations, and its modeling of the natural history of COPD from inception. Multiple original data analyses, as well as values reported in the literature, were used to populate the model. Extensive face validity and internal and external validity evaluations were performed.

RESULTS

The model was internally validated on demographic projections, mortality rates, lung function trajectories, COPD exacerbations, costs and health state utility values, and stability of COPD prevalence over time within strata of risk factors. In external validation, it moderately overestimated the rate of overall exacerbations in 2 independent trials but generated consistent estimates of rate of severe exacerbations and mortality.

LIMITATIONS

In its current version, EPIC does not consider uncertainty in the evidence. Several components such as additional (e.g., environmental and occupational) risk factors, treatment, symptoms, and comorbidity will have to be added in future iterations. Predictive validity of EPIC needs to be examined prospectively against future empirical studies.

CONCLUSIONS

EPIC is the first multipurpose, open-source, outcome- and policy-focused model of COPD for Canada. Platforms of this type have the capacity to be iteratively updated to incorporate the latest evidence and to project the outcomes of many different scenarios within a consistent framework.

Cost-effectiveness of physical activity in the management of COPD patients in the UK

Background

While the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) guidelines advise exercise to reduce disease progression, little investment in promoting physical activity (PA) is made by health care authorities. The purpose of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of regular PA vs sedentary lifestyle in people with COPD in the UK.

Methods

Efficacy, quality of life, and economic evidence on the PA effects in COPD patients were retrieved from literature to serve as input for a Markov microsimulation model comparing a COPD population performing PA vs a COPD population with sedentary lifestyle. The GOLD classification defined the model health states. For the base case, the cost of PA was estimated at zero, a lifetime horizon was used, and costs and effects were discounted at 3.5%. Analyses were performed from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Uncertainty around inputs and assumptions were explored via scenario and sensitivity analyses, including a cost threshold analysis. Outcomes were cost/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and cost/year gained.

Results

Based on our model, the effects of PA in the UK COPD population would be lower mortality (−6%), fewer hospitalizations (−2%), gains in years (+0.82) and QALYs (+0.66), and total cost savings of £2,568. The cost/QALY and cost/year gained were dominant. PA was cost-saving at costs <£35/month and cost-effective at cost <£202/month. The main model drivers were age and PA impact on death and hospital-treated exacerbations.

Conclusion

Including PA in the management of COPD leads to long-term clinical benefits. If the NHS promotes only exercise via medical advice, this would lead to health care cost savings. If the NHS chose to fund PA, it would still likely be cost-effective.

The health impacts of energy performance investments in low-income areas: a mixed-methods approach

Background

Cold homes and fuel poverty contribute to health inequalities in ways that could be addressed through energy efficiency interventions.

Objectives

To determine the health and psychosocial impacts of energy performance investments in low-income areas, particularly hospital admissions for cardiorespiratory conditions, prevalence of respiratory symptoms and mental health status, hydrothermal conditions and household energy use, psychosocial outcomes, cost consequences to the health system and the cost utility of these investments.

Design

A mixed-methods study comprising data linkage (25,908 individuals living in 4968 intervention homes), a field study with a controlled pre-/post-test design (intervention,n = 418; control,n = 418), a controlled multilevel interrupted time series analysis of internal hydrothermal conditions (intervention,n = 48; control,n = 40) and a health economic assessment.

Setting

Low-income areas across Wales.

Participants

Residents who received energy efficiency measures through the intervention programme and matched control groups.

Main outcome measures

Primary outcomes – emergency hospital admissions for cardiorespiratory conditions, self-reported respiratory symptoms, mental health status, indoor air temperature and indoor relative humidity. Secondary outcomes – emergency hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-related cardiorespiratory conditions, excess winter admissions, health-related quality of life, subjective well-being, self-reported fuel poverty, financial stress and difficulties, food security, social interaction, thermal satisfaction and self-reported housing conditions.

Methods

Anonymously linked individual health records for emergency hospital admissions were analysed using mixed multilevel linear models. A quasi-experimental controlled field study used a multilevel repeated measures approach. Controlled multilevel interrupted time series analyses were conducted to estimate changes in internal hydrothermal conditions following the intervention. The economic evaluation comprised cost–consequence and cost–utility analyses.

Data sources

The Patient Episode Database for Wales 2005–14, intervention records from 28 local authorities and housing associations, and scheme managers who delivered the programme.

Results

The study found no evidence of changes in physical health. However, there were improvements in subjective well-being and a number of psychosocial outcomes. The household monitoring study found that the intervention raised indoor temperature and helped reduce energy use. No evidence was found of substantial increases in indoor humidity levels. The health economic assessment found no explicit cost reductions to the health service as a result of non-significant changes in emergency admissions for cardiorespiratory conditions.

Limitations

This was a non-randomised intervention study with household monitoring and field studies that relied on self-response. Data linkage focused on emergency admissions only.

Conclusion

Although there was no evidence that energy performance investments provide physical health benefits or reduce health service usage, there was evidence that they improve social and economic conditions that are conducive to better health and improved subjective well-being. The intervention has been successful in reducing energy use and improving the living conditions of households in low-income areas. The lack of association of emergency hospital admissions with energy performance investments means that we were unable to evidence cost saving to health-service providers.

Future work

Our research suggests the importance of incorporating evaluations with follow-up into intervention research from the start.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of umeclidinium/vilanterol for the management of patients with moderate to very severe COPD using an economic model

BACKGROUND

Bronchodilators such as long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMAs) and long-acting β₂-agonists (LABAs) are central to the pharmacological management of COPD. Dual bronchodilation with umeclidinium/vilanterol (UMEC/VI; 62.5/25 μg) is a novel LAMA/LABA combination approved for maintenance treatment for patients with COPD.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of maintenance treatment with UMEC/VI compared with tiotropium (TIO) 18 μg, open dual LAMA + LABA treatment, or no long-acting bronchodilator treatment in patients with moderate to very severe COPD.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and outcomes associated with UMEC/VI treatment in patients with moderate to very severe COPD (GSK study number: HO-13-13411). Clinical efficacy, costs, utilities, and mortality obtained from the published literature were used as the model inputs. Costs are presented in US dollars based on 2015 prices. The model outputs are total costs, drug costs, other medical costs, number of COPD exacerbations, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs and outcomes were discounted at a 3% annual rate. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effects of changing parameters on the uncertainty of the results.

RESULTS

UMEC/VI treatment for moderate to very severe COPD was associated with lower lifetime medical costs ($82,344) compared with TIO ($88,822), open dual LAMA + LABA treatment ($114,442), and no long-acting bronchodilator ($86,751). Fewer exacerbations were predicted to occur with UMEC/VI treatment compared with no long-acting bronchodilator treatment. UMEC/VI provided an 0.11 and 0.25 increase in QALYs compared with TIO and no long-acting bronchodilator treatment, and as such, dominated these cost-effectiveness analyses. Sensitivity analyses confirmed that the results were robust.

CONCLUSION

The results from this model suggest that UMEC/VI treatment would be dominant compared with TIO and no long-acting bronchodilator treatment, and less costly than open dual LAMA + LABA treatment in patients with moderate to very severe COPD.

Re-treatment with varenicline is a cost-effective aid for smoking cessation

OBJECTIVE

One quit attempt with varenicline has been found to be a cost-effective smoking cessation intervention. The purpose of this study was to analyze varenicline's cost-effectiveness in patients who relapse during or after the first treatment. A comparison was made between re-treatment schema with varenicline and re-treatment schema with bupropion, NRT and unaided cessation, and treatment once with varenicline in a Finnish context.

METHODS

The two-quit version of BENESCO Markov model was used to follow a cohort of smokers making up to two quit attempts over a lifetime. The abstinence rates of the interventions were derived from a Cochrane review. Gender- and age-specific data on the incidence and prevalence of five smoking-related diseases were included in the model. Quality-adjusted life-years, total expected costs, and the lifetime cumulative incidence of smoking-related morbidities and mortality were the primary outcomes evaluated.

RESULTS

The study cohort comprised 116,533 smokers who were willing to make a quit attempt. In the lifetime simulation, re-treatment with varenicline yielded 6,150-20,250 extra quitters, depending on the comparator. Among these quitters it was possible to prevent 899-2,972 additional cases of smoking-related diseases, and 395-1,307 deaths attributable to smoking. Re-treatment with varenicline resulted in cost savings of up to 54.9 million Euros. Re-treatment with varenicline dominated all the other smoking cessation interventions used in the analysis. Sensitivity analysis supported the robustness of the base case results.

LIMITATIONS

The analysis did not consider adverse events, and included only five major smoking-related diseases, which is a conservative approach, and probably leads to under-estimation of cost-effectiveness of cessation interventions. Furthermore, assumptions of constant relative risks for smoking-related diseases for each smoking status and the proxy values used as efficacy estimates of second quit attempts for other interventions than varenicline are limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

A second quitting effort with varenicline is economically justifiable.

External Validation of Health Economic Decision Models for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD): Report of the Third COPD Modeling Meeting

OBJECTIVES

To validate outcomes of presently available chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cost-effectiveness models against results of two large COPD trials-the 3-year TOwards a Revolution in COPD Health (TORCH) trial and the 4-year Understanding Potential Long-term Impacts on Function with Tiotropium (UPLIFT) trial.

METHODS

Participating COPD modeling groups simulated the outcomes for the placebo-treated groups of the TORCH and UPLIFT trials using baseline characteristics of the trial populations as input. Groups then simulated treatment effectiveness by using relative reductions in annual decline in lung function and exacerbation frequency observed in the most intensively treated group compared with placebo as input for the models. Main outcomes were (change in) total/severe exacerbations and mortality. Furthermore, the absolute differences in total exacerbations and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were used to approximate the cost per exacerbation avoided and the cost per QALY gained.

RESULT

Of the six participating models, three models reported higher total exacerbation rates than observed in the TORCH trial (1.13/patient-year) (models: 1.22-1.48). Four models reported higher rates than observed in the UPLIFT trial (0.85/patient-year) (models: 1.13-1.52). Two models reported higher mortality rates than in the TORCH trial (15.2%) (models: 20.0% and 30.6%) and the UPLIFT trial (16.3%) (models: 24.8% and 36.0%), whereas one model reported lower rates (9.8% and 12.1%, respectively). Simulation of treatment effectiveness showed that the absolute reduction in total exacerbations, the gain in QALYs, and the cost-effectiveness ratios did not differ from the trials, except for one model.

CONCLUSIONS

Although most of the participating COPD cost-effectiveness models reported higher total exacerbation rates than observed in the trials, estimates of the absolute treatment effect and cost-effectiveness ratios do not seem different from the trials in most models.

Strategies for Expanding Access and Improving the Quality of Pharmaceutical Services

Pharmaceutical services are among the most accessible healthcare assistance systems worldwide, being provided generally in enterprises like Drugstores and Compounding Pharmacies. Pharmacists are highly accessible healthcare professionals considering also the availability, geographic distribution and location of pharmaceutical enterprises. However, there are several challenges for providing these services for patients with limitations such as low education, difficulties on reaching the Pharmacist, and the need for individualized monitoring (due to the complexity of therapy). Reports of low quality services are growing worldwide, and in order to expand access and improve the quality of pharmaceutical services, Pharmacists must move from being medication dispensers with focus in administrative management to a clinically-oriented practice with a humanistic view. The aim of this chapter is to make an approach on the implementation of effective strategies and ways to improve the quality of Pharmacists' work as specialized healthcare providers.

A Systematic Review of Health Economics Simulation Models of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

BACKGROUND

Many decision-analytic models with varying structures have been developed to inform resource allocation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

OBJECTIVES

To review COPD models for their adherence to the best practice modeling recommendations and their assumptions regarding important aspects of the natural history of COPD.

METHODS

A systematic search of English articles reporting on the development or application of a decision-analytic model in COPD was performed in MEDLINE, Embase, and citations within reviewed articles. Studies were summarized and evaluated on the basis of their adherence to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards. They were also evaluated for the underlying assumptions about disease progression, heterogeneity, comorbidity, and treatment effects.

RESULTS

Forty-nine models of COPD were included. Decision trees and Markov models were the most popular techniques (43 studies). Quality of reporting and adherence to the guidelines were generally high, especially in more recent publications. Disease progression was modeled through clinical staging in most studies. Although most studies (n = 43) had incorporated some aspects of COPD heterogeneity, only 8 reported the results across subgroups. Only 2 evaluations explicitly considered the impact of comorbidities. Treatment effect had been mostly modeled (20) as both reduction in exacerbation rate and improvement in lung function.

CONCLUSIONS

Many COPD models have been developed, generally with similar structural elements. COPD is highly heterogeneous, and comorbid conditions play an important role in its burden. These important aspects, however, have not been adequately addressed in most of the published models.

Cost versus utility of aclidinium bromide 400 µg plus formoterol fumarate dihydrate 12 µg compared to aclidinium bromide 400 µg alone in the management of moderate-to-severe COPD

Purpose

Aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg is a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) and a long-acting β₂-agonist in a fixed-dose combination used in the management of patients with COPD. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg against the long-acting muscarinic antagonist aclidinium bromide 400 µg.

Materials and methods

A five-health-state Markov transition model with monthly cycles was developed using MS Excel to simulate patients with moderate-to-severe COPD and their initial lung-function improvement following treatment with aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg or aclidinium 400 µg. Health states were based on severity levels defined by Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 2010 criteria. The analysis was a head-to-head comparison without step-up therapy, from the NHS Scotland perspective, over a 5-year time horizon. Clinical data on initial lung-function improvement were provided by a pooled analysis of the ACLIFORM and AUGMENT trials. Management, event costs, and utilities were health state-specific. Costs and effects were discounted at an annual rate of 3.5%. The outcome of the analysis was expressed as cost (UK£) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The analysis included one way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact of parameter uncertainty on model outputs.

Results

Aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg provided marginally higher costs (£41) and more QALYs (0.014), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £2,976/QALY. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were robust to key parameter variations, and the main drivers were: mean baseline forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁), risk of exacerbation, FEV₁ improvement from aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg, and lung-function decline. The probability of aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg being cost-effective (using a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY) versus aclidinium 400 µg was 79%.

Conclusion

In Scotland, aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg can be considered a cost-effective treatment option compared to aclidinium 400 µg alone in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD.

Cost-effectiveness of tiotropium versus glycopyrronium in moderate to very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Canada, Spain, Sweden, and the UK

OBJECTIVES

Tiotropium (TIO), Spiriva® Handihaler®, is a well-established bronchodilator, LAMA (long acting muscarinic antagonist), for the treatment of moderate to very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Clinical evidence from the SPARK trial suggests that TIO is superior to glycopyrronium (GLY), Seebri® Breezhaler®, in terms of severe exacerbations. This modeling study assessed the cost-effectiveness of TIO versus GLY for Canada (CAN), Spain (ESP), Sweden (SWE), and the UK, making use of this new clinical evidence.

METHODS

A Markov cohort model, with moderate to very severe (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease II-IV) COPD patients, was populated with efficacy data from the Understanding Potential Long-term Impacts on Function with Tiotropium (UPLIFT) and SPARK trials as well as costs, utilities, and epidemiological data relevant for each country. Treatment efficacy was modeled as improvements in lung function, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and as a lowering of the risk of exacerbations (rate of exacerbations). Risks of exacerbations differed between cohorts based on data from SPARK. Health and cost outcomes were simulated over an approximate lifetime horizon, starting from the age of 65 years. Robustness of results was validated in deterministic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Over the lifetime horizon, patients treated with TIO accumulated -623 (CAN), 1,066 (ESP), 1,137 (SWE), and -169 (UK), respectively, in incremental costs (€2014). TIO generated better health outcomes compared to GLY in all countries, 0.21 (CAN), 0.25 (ESP), 0.23 (SWE), and 0.23 (UK) in incremental QALYs. The cost per QALY gained was found to be €4,281 and €1,137 for ESP and SWE, respectively, while TIO was found to be cost saving in CAN and the UK. The results were mainly driven by the relative risk of severe exacerbations found in SPARK (GLY/TIO relative risk: 1.43, 95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.97, P=0.025).

CONCLUSION

The results from this study show that TIO is a cost-effective treatment compared to GLY in moderate to very severe COPD. The cost per QALY is well below the existing implicit and explicit willingness-to-pay thresholds.

A randomised controlled trial to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative treatments to Inhibit VEGF in Age-related choroidal Neovascularisation (IVAN)

BACKGROUND

Bevacizumab (Avastin®, Roche), which is used in cancer therapy, is the 'parent' molecule from which ranibizumab (Lucentis®, Novartis) was derived for the treatment of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD). There were reports in the literature on the effectiveness of bevacizumab in treating nAMD, but no trials. The cost per dose of bevacizumab is about 5-10% that of ranibizumab. This trial was a head-to-head comparison of these two drugs.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ranibizumab and bevacizumab, and two treatment regimens, for nAMD.

DESIGN

Multicentre, factorial randomised controlled trial with within-trial cost-utility and cost-minimisation analyses from the perspective of the UK NHS. Participants, health professionals and researchers were masked to allocation of drug but not regimen. Computer-generated random allocations to combinations of ranibizumab or bevacizumab, and continuous or discontinuous regimen, were stratified by centre, blocked and concealed.

SETTING

Twenty-three ophthalmology departments in NHS hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients ≥ 50 years old with active nAMD in the study eye with best corrected distance visual acuity (BCVA) ≥ 25 letters measured on a Early Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) chart. Previous treatment for nAMD, long-standing disease, lesion diameter > 6000 µm, thick blood at the fovea and any other confounding ocular disease were exclusion criteria. One eye per participant was studied; the fellow eye was treated according to usual care, if required.

INTERVENTIONS

Ranibizumab and bevacizumab were procured commercially. Doses were ranibizumab 0.5 mg or bevacizumab 1.25 mg. The repackaged bevacizumab was quality assured. All participants were treated at visits 0, 1 and 2. Participants randomised to the continuous regimen were treated monthly thereafter. Participants randomised to the discontinuous regimen were not retreated after visit 2 unless pre-specified criteria for active disease were met. If retreatment was needed, monthly injections over 3 months were mandated.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was BCVA. The non-inferiority margin was 3.5 letters. Secondary outcomes were contrast sensitivity; near visual acuity; reading index; neovascular lesion morphology; generic and disease-specific patient-reported outcomes, including macular disease-specific quality of life; survival free from treatment failure; resource use; quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); and development of new geographic atrophy (GA) (outcome added during the trial). Results are reported for the study eye, except for patient-reported outcomes.

RESULTS

Between 27 March 2008 and 15 October 2010, 610 participants were allocated and treated (314 ranibizumab, 296 bevacizumab; at 3 months, 305 continuous, 300 discontinuous). After 2 years, bevacizumab was neither non-inferior nor inferior to ranibizumab [-1.37 letters, 95% confidence interval (CI) -3.75 to +1.01 letters] and discontinuous treatment was neither non-inferior nor inferior to continuous treatment (-1.63 letters, 95% CI -4.01 to +0.75 letters). Lesion thickness at the fovea was similar by drug [geometric mean ratio (GMR) 0.96, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.03; p = 0.24] but 9% less with continuous treatment (GMR 0.91, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.97; p = 0.004). Odds of developing new GA during the trial were similar by drug [odds ratio (OR) 0.87, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.25; p = 0.46] but significantly higher with continuous treatment (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.11; p = 0.033). Safety outcomes did not differ by drug but mortality was lower with continuous treatment (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.03; p = 0.05). Continuous ranibizumab cost £3.5M per QALY compared with continuous bevacizumab; continuous bevacizumab cost £30,220 per QALY compared with discontinuous bevacizumab. These results were robust in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Ranibizumab and bevacizumab have similar efficacy. Discontinuing treatment and restarting when required results in slightly worse efficacy. Safety was worse with discontinuous treatment, although new GA developed more often with continuous treatment. Ranibizumab is not cost-effective, although it remains uncertain whether or not continuous bevacizumab is cost-effective compared with discontinuous bevacizumab at £20,000 per QALY threshold. Future studies should focus on the ocular safety of the two drugs, further optimisation of treatment regimens and criteria for stopping treatment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN92166560.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 78. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The cost-effectiveness of domiciliary non-invasive ventilation in patients with end-stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic progressive lung disease characterised by non-reversible airflow obstruction. Exacerbations are a key cause of morbidity and mortality and place a considerable burden on health-care systems. While there is evidence that patients benefit from non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in hospital during an acute exacerbation, evidence supporting home use for more stable COPD patients is limited. In the U.K., domiciliary NIV is considered on health economic grounds in patients after three hospital admissions for acute hypercapnic respiratory failure.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV by systematic review and economic evaluation.

DATA SOURCES

Bibliographic databases, conference proceedings and ongoing trial registries up to September 2014.

METHODS

Standard systematic review methods were used for identifying relevant clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies assessing NIV compared with usual care or comparing different types of NIV. Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane guidelines and relevant economic checklists. Results for primary effectiveness outcomes (mortality, hospitalisations, exacerbations and quality of life) were presented, where possible, in forest plots. A speculative Markov decision model was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV with usual care from a UK perspective for post-hospital and more stable populations separately.

RESULTS

Thirty-one controlled effectiveness studies were identified, which report a variety of outcomes. For stable patients, a modest volume of evidence found no benefit from domiciliary NIV for survival and some non-significant beneficial trends for hospitalisations and quality of life. For post-hospital patients, no benefit from NIV could be shown in terms of survival (from randomised controlled trials) and findings for hospital admissions were inconsistent and based on limited evidence. No conclusions could be drawn regarding potential benefit from different types of NIV. No cost-effectiveness studies of domiciliary NIV were identified. Economic modelling suggested that NIV may be cost-effective in a stable population at a threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio £28,162), but this is associated with uncertainty. In the case of the post-hospital population, results for three separate base cases ranged from usual care dominating to NIV being cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of less than £10,000 per QALY gained. All estimates were sensitive to effectiveness estimates, length of benefit from NIV (currently unknown) and some costs. Modelling suggested that reductions in the rate of hospital admissions per patient per year of 24% and 15% in the stable and post-hospital populations, respectively, are required for NIV to be cost-effective.

LIMITATIONS

Evidence on key clinical outcomes remains limited, particularly quality-of-life and long-term (> 2 years) effects. Economic modelling should be viewed as speculative because of uncertainty around effect estimates, baseline risks, length of benefit of NIV and limited quality-of-life/utility data.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV remains uncertain and the findings in this report are sensitive to emergent data. Further evidence is required to identify patients most likely to benefit from domiciliary NIV and to establish optimum time points for starting NIV and equipment settings.

FUTURE WORK RECOMMENDATIONS

The results from this report will need to be re-examined in the light of any new trial results, particularly in terms of reducing the uncertainty in the economic model. Any new randomised controlled trials should consider including a sham non-invasive ventilation arm and/or a higher- and lower-pressure arm. Individual participant data analyses may help to determine whether or not there are any patient characteristics or equipment settings that are predictive of a benefit of NIV and to establish optimum time points for starting (and potentially discounting) NIV.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012003286.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Do Model-Based Studies in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Measure Correct Values of Utility? A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a progressive chronic disease that has considerable impact on utility-based health-related quality of life. Utility is a key input of many decision analytic models used for economic evaluations.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review COPD-related utilities and to compare these with alternative values used in decision models.

METHODS

The literature review comprised studies that generated utilities for COPD-related stages based on EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire surveys of patients and of decision models of COPD progression that have been used for economic evaluations. The utility values used in modeling studies and those from the meta-analysis of actual patient-level studies were compared and differences quantified.

RESULTS

Twenty decision modeling studies that used utility value as an input parameter were found. Within the same span of publication period, 13 studies involving patient-level utility data were identified and included in the meta-analysis. The estimated mean utility values ranged from 0.806 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.747-0.866) for stage I to 0.616 (95% CI 0.556-0.676) for stage IV. The utility scores for comparable stages in modeling studies were different (significant difference 0.045 [95% CI 0.041-0.052] for stage III). Modeling studies consistently used higher utility values than the average reported patient-level data.

CONCLUSIONS

COPD decision analytic models are based on a limited range of utility values that are systematically different from average values estimated using a meta-analysis. A more systematic approach in the application of utility measures in economic evaluation is required to appropriately reflect current literature.

Mathematical Modeling in Tobacco Control Research: Initial Results From a Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

The US Food and Drug Administration has expressed interest in using mathematical models to evaluate potential tobacco policies. The goal of this systematic review was to synthesize data from tobacco control studies that employ mathematical models.

METHODS

We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 to identify published studies that used a mathematical model to project a tobacco-related outcome and developed a data extraction form based on the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices. We developed an organizational framework to categorize these studies and identify models employed across multiple papers. We synthesized results qualitatively, providing a descriptive synthesis of included studies.

RESULTS

The 263 studies in this review were heterogeneous with regard to their methodologies and aims. We used the organizational framework to categorize each study according to its objective and map the objective to a model outcome. We identified two types of study objectives (trend and policy/intervention) and three types of model outcomes (change in tobacco use behavior, change in tobacco-related morbidity or mortality, and economic impact). Eighteen models were used across 118 studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper extends conventional systematic review methods to characterize a body of literature on mathematical modeling in tobacco control. The findings of this synthesis can inform the development of new models and the improvement of existing models, strengthening the ability of researchers to accurately project future tobacco-related trends and evaluate potential tobacco control policies and interventions. These findings can also help decision-makers to identify and become oriented with models relevant to their work.

Economic evaluations of fluticasone-propionate/salmeterol combination therapy for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a review of published studies

This review identifies and evaluates the comprehensive reporting of peer-reviewed economic evaluations of the effectiveness of fluticasone-propionate/salmeterol combination (FSC) therapy for maintenance treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Economic evaluations were included if published in English since 2003. Evaluation categories included in the review were cost-effectiveness, cost-utility, and cost-consequence analyses. FSC is cost-effective in comparison to short-acting bronchodilators (SABDs). Cost and outcome differences between FSC and other long-acting therapies were modest. Studies exhibited large variations in populations, designs and environment, limiting the ability to draw conclusions. Many new maintenance treatments for COPD have been approved since 2010. Most have yet to be compared to older treatments like FSC. Evaluations are needed that consider costs and outcomes from a societal perspective (e.g., patients' ability to keep working) and evaluations that include subgroup analyses to investigate differential impacts according to clusters of patient characteristics.

Supported self-management for patients with moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): an evidence synthesis and economic analysis

BACKGROUND

Self-management (SM) support for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is variable in its coverage, content, method and timing of delivery. There is insufficient evidence for which SM interventions are the most effective and cost-effective.

OBJECTIVES

To undertake (1) a systematic review of the evidence for the effectiveness of SM interventions commencing within 6 weeks of hospital discharge for an exacerbation for COPD (review 1); (2) a systematic review of the qualitative evidence about patient satisfaction, acceptance and barriers to SM interventions (review 2); (3) a systematic review of the cost-effectiveness of SM support interventions within 6 weeks of hospital discharge for an exacerbation of COPD (review 3); (4) a cost-effectiveness analysis and economic model of post-exacerbation SM support compared with usual care (UC) (economic model); and (5) a wider systematic review of the evidence of the effectiveness of SM support, including interventions (such as pulmonary rehabilitation) in which there are significant components of SM, to identify which components are the most important in reducing exacerbations, hospital admissions/readmissions and improving quality of life (review 4).

METHODS

The following electronic databases were searched from inception to May 2012: MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Science Citation Index [Institute of Scientific Information (ISI)]. Subject-specific databases were also searched: PEDro physiotherapy evidence database, PsycINFO and the Cochrane Airways Group Register of Trials. Ongoing studies were sourced through the metaRegister of Current Controlled Trials, International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number database, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov. Specialist abstract and conference proceedings were sourced through ISI's Conference Proceedings Citation Index and British Library's Electronic Table of Contents (Zetoc). Hand-searching through European Respiratory Society, the American Thoracic Society and British Thoracic Society conference proceedings from 2010 to 2012 was also undertaken, and selected websites were also examined. Title, abstracts and full texts of potentially relevant studies were scanned by two independent reviewers. Primary studies were included if ≈90% of the population had COPD, the majority were of at least moderate severity and reported on any intervention that included a SM component or package. Accepted study designs and outcomes differed between the reviews. Risk of bias for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) was assessed using the Cochrane tool. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to combine studies where appropriate. A Markov model, taking a 30-year time horizon, compared a SM intervention immediately following a hospital admission for an acute exacerbation with UC. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years were calculated, with sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

From 13,355 abstracts, 10 RCTs were included for review 1, one study each for reviews 2 and 3, and 174 RCTs for review 4. Available studies were heterogeneous and many were of poor quality. Meta-analysis identified no evidence of benefit of post-discharge SM support on admissions [hazard ratio (HR) 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52 to 1.17], mortality (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.54) and most other health outcomes. A modest improvement in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was identified but this was possibly biased due to high loss to follow-up. The economic model was speculative due to uncertainty in impact on readmissions. Compared with UC, post-discharge SM support (delivered within 6 weeks of discharge) was more costly and resulted in better outcomes (£683 cost difference and 0.0831 QALY gain). Studies assessing the effect of individual components were few but only exercise significantly improved HRQoL (3-month St George's Respiratory Questionnaire 4.87, 95% CI 3.96 to 5.79). Multicomponent interventions produced an improved HRQoL compared with UC (mean difference 6.50, 95% CI 3.62 to 9.39, at 3 months). Results were consistent with a potential reduction in admissions. Interventions with more enhanced care from health-care professionals improved HRQoL and reduced admissions at 1-year follow-up. Interventions that included supervised or unsupervised structured exercise resulted in significant and clinically important improvements in HRQoL up to 6 months.

LIMITATIONS

This review was based on a comprehensive search strategy that should have identified most of the relevant studies. The main limitations result from the heterogeneity of studies available and widespread problems with their design and reporting.

CONCLUSIONS

There was little evidence of benefit of providing SM support to patients shortly after discharge from hospital, although effects observed were consistent with possible improvement in HRQoL and reduction in hospital admissions. It was not easy to tease out the most effective components of SM support packages, although interventions containing exercise seemed the most effective. Future work should include qualitative studies to explore barriers and facilitators to SM post exacerbation and novel approaches to affect behaviour change, tailored to the individual and their circumstances. Any new trials should be properly designed and conducted, with special attention to reducing loss to follow-up. Individual participant data meta-analysis may help to identify the most effective components of SM interventions.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42011001588.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Systematic review of models used in economic analyses in moderate-to-severe asthma and COPD

BACKGROUND

Respiratory diseases exert a substantial burden on society, with newer drugs increasingly adding to the burden. Economic models are often used, but seldom reviewed.

PURPOSE

To summarize economic models used in economic analyses of drugs treating moderate-to-severe/very severe asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

METHODS

This study searched Medline and Embase from inception to the end of February 2015 for cost-effectiveness/utility analyses that examined at least one drug against placebo, another drug, or other standard therapy in asthma or COPD. Two reviewers independently searched and extracted data with differences adjudicated via consensus discussion. Data extracted included model used and its qualities, validation methods, treatments compared, disease severity, analytic perspective, time horizon, data collection (pro- or retrospective), input rates and sources, costs and sources, planned sensitivity analyses, criteria for cost-effectiveness, reported outcomes, and sponsor.

RESULTS

This study analyzed 53 articles; 14 (25%) on asthma and 39 (75%) COPD. Markov models were commonly used for both asthma and COPD-related economic evaluations. Relatively few studies validated their model. For asthma-related studies, 10 examined inhaled corticosteroids and nine studied omalizumab. Placebo or standard therapy was the comparison in 11 studies and active drugs in the remainder.

CONCLUSIONS

Few studies include validation of their models. Furthermore, controversy concerning some results was uncovered in this study, which needs to be avoided in the future.

Health State Utility Value in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD); The Challenge of Heterogeneity: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has a considerable impact on quality of life and well-being of patients. Health state utility value (HSUV) is a recognized measure for health economic appraisals and is extensively used as an indicator for decision-making studies. This study is a systematic review of literature aimed to estimate mean utility value in COPD using meta-analysis and explore degree of heterogeneity in the utility values across a variety of clinical and study characteristic. The literature review covers studies that used EQ-5D to estimate utility value for patient level research in COPD. Studies that reported utility values elicited by EQ-5D in COPD patients were selected for random-effect meta-analysis addressing inter-study heterogeneity and subgroup analyses. Thirty-two studies were included in the general utility meta-analysis. The estimated general utility value was 0.673 (95% CI 0.653 to 0.693). Meta-analyses of COPD stages utility values showed influence of airway obstruction on utility value. The utility values ranged from 0.820 (95% CI 0.767 to 0.872) for stage I to 0.624 (95% CI 0.571 to 0.677) for stage IV. There was substantial heterogeneity in utility values: I(2) = 97.7%. A more accurate measurement of utility values in COPD is needed to refine valid and generalizable scores of HSUV. Given the limited success of the factors studied to reduce heterogeneity, an approach needs to be developed how best to use mean utility values for COPD in health economic evaluation.

Developing Models to Predict Persistent High-Cost Cases in Florida Medicaid

This paper examined individual characteristics associated with being a high-cost case in multiple years for Medicaid-covered health care services. In addition, the accuracy of models that predict future persistent high-cost cases was examined. Florida Medicaid claims from 2005 to 2010 were used to examine characteristics, diagnoses, and services associated with individual costs being in the top 1% of recipients. Regression models were estimated with diagnoses and service use in a base year used to predict future high-cost cases. Several different perspectives were used that focus on predicting current year high-cost cases based on prior persistence, predicting future persistence of high costs, and a combination of using past persistence to predict future persistence. Average annual costs for persistent high-cost cases were more than $140,000. Overall, models were predictive of future high-cost cases. The receipt of intermediate case facility (mental retardation) services was the strongest predictor of future high-cost cases. Inpatient, outpatient, pharmacy, and nursing home services, along with diagnoses, all provided important information for predicting high-cost cases. Diagnosis-based models in conjunction with prior costs can predict future high-cost cases with a high degree of accuracy. However, given that many high-cost cases reside in intermediate care facilities, it is not clear that such individuals would benefit from intensive case management. Service use patterns in prior years, diagnoses, and prior costs should all be used to identify individuals who may benefit from intensive case management.

Cost-effectiveness of retreatment with varenicline after failure with or relapse after initial treatment for smoking cessation

OBJECTIVES

A recent trial showed the clinical benefit of retreatment with varenicline in subjects failing on the initial treatment, or relapsing after initial success. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of retreatment with varenicline compared with other smoking cessation interventions.

METHODS

A published Markov model was adapted to compare one quit attempt of varenicline followed by retreatment to treatment/retreatment with nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), bupropion or placebo, and with only 1 quit attempt of varenicline. Efficacy was obtained from clinical trials. Incidence of smoking-related diseases was based on published data. Cost of therapies and complications was obtained from databases and literature.

RESULTS

For 1000 smokers willing to quit, varenicline retreatment saves 275,000€, 118,000€, 316,000€ and 237,000€ compared to NRT, bupropion, placebo, or one single varenicline quit attempt respectively at lifetime and from the healthcare payer perspective. The number of quality adjusted life years gained is 74, 63, 193 and 111 respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of these findings.

CONCLUSION

This analysis suggests that in the long term, varenicline retreatment is a dominant intervention, meaning both greater health gains and greater costs saved, over other possible interventions and therefore should be considered as a standard option.

Utility estimation of hypothetical chronic obstructive pulmonary disease health states by the general population and health professionals

PURPOSE

This study attempted to estimate the utility weights for hypothetical chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) health states, including the effect of exacerbation, and based on utilities elicited from a representative sample using the time trade-off (TTO).

METHODS

A total of 200 study subjects were recruited using a quota sampling method in Seoul, Korea. Ten COPD health profiles were described reflecting the severity of COPD and the extent of exacerbation. Respondents evaluated each health state using a visual analogue scale and TTO during a personal interview. TTO values were estimated using a linear mixed model, and the model performance was evaluated in terms of its predictive ability and goodness of fit.

RESULTS

The estimated TTO values were 0.824 in moderate, 0.646 in severe, and 0.305 in very severe COPD health states. The estimated utility decrements in TTO varied from 0.082 for a non-serious exacerbation to 0.228 for one non-serious plus one serious exacerbation per year. The mean absolute error of the TTO model was 0.008, and the generalized R(2) was 0.86.

CONCLUSION

The social preference of various COPD health states and the utility decrement due to exacerbation can be useful for the economic evaluation of COPD intervention in Korea.

Utilities for asthma and COPD according to category of severity: a comprehensive literature review

BACKGROUND

Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are incurable diseases that impact quality-of-life.

OBJECTIVE

To summarize original research articles that measured or utilized preference-based utilities or disutilities according to disease severity.

METHODS

Medline and Embase were searched from inception until the end of November 2014. Two reviewers independently searched the literature with differences settled through discussion. Data extracted included utility scores as determined in original research categorized according to disease severity as well as disutilities associated with exacerbations or comorbidities. Data were tabulated and analyzed descriptively.

RESULTS

In total, 862 articles were identified, 790 were rejected, and 69 analyzed. There were 44 dealing with COPD and 25 with asthma. Average utilities determined by research were 0.828 ± 0.062, 0.765 ± 0.090, 0.711 ± 0.120, and 0.607 ± 0.120 for mild, moderate, severe, and very severe COPD, respectively. Utilities used in economic analyses were 0.866 ± 0.038, 0.770 ± 0.024, 0.739 ± 0.045, and 0.596 ± 0.075, respectively. Disutilities (annual) ranged from 0.002-0.378; major and minor exacerbations had respective disutilities of 0.287 and 0.108. For asthma patients, utilities were for 0.86 ± 0.32, 0.83 ± 0.065, and 0.74 ± 0.029, for mild, moderate, and severe disease, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Utilities have been summarized according to severity category of asthma and COPD. These values should be useful for researchers undertaking economic analyses of these diseases.

Network vs. pairwise meta-analyses: a case study of the impact of an evidence-synthesis paradigm on value of information outcomes

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of using two evidence-synthesis paradigms, pairwise meta-analysis (PMA) vs. network meta-analysis (NMA), on the expected value of information (EVI) outcomes, using pharmacotherapy of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as a case study.

METHODS

Bayesian random-effects PMAs were performed for each pharmacotherapy vs. placebo, and a Bayesian random-effects NMA was performed combining both placebo-controlled and head-to-head trials. Both provided comparative rate ratio (RR) estimates between each pharmacotherapy vs. placebo. A Markov model was developed to project costs and quality-adjusted life-years of five commonly used treatments for chronic obsructive pulmonary disorder. RRs for the treatment effect compared with placebo derived using PMA and NMA were used alongside values from the literature to populate the model. In addition to standard cost-effectiveness outputs, we calculated and compared the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) for treatment effects, for comparisons that included all or a subset of treatments.

RESULTS

The network of evidence included five different treatments, compared in 19 randomized controlled trials (RCTs), which in total included 28,172 individuals. The cost-effectiveness outcomes were similar between the two evidence-synthesis paradigms. The individual EVPI for all treatments was Can$1,262 for PMA-based analyses and Can$572 for NMA-based analyses. For all comparisons involving two, three, or four treatments, the comparison with the highest EVPI was different between the two methods. Similarly, the choice of PMA or NMA had resulted in substantially different EVPPI rankings.

CONCLUSION

Our case study shows that the choice of PMA or NMA can have significant effects on the EVI results. Under comparable conditions, the incorporation of more evidence in the NMA most likely increases the precision of estimates and therefore is likely to result in lower EVI outcomes. As our study demonstrates, the difference in EVI outcomes can be substantial, potentially affecting the decision to conduct research and the design of future research.

Cost-effectiveness of endobronchial valve therapy for severe emphysema: a model-based projection based on the VENT study

BACKGROUND

Endobronchial valve (EBV) therapy is an innovative treatment that has been shown to be safe and effective in selected subgroups of patients with severe emphysema.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of our study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of EBV therapy compared to the medical management of patients with high heterogeneity, complete fissures and lobar exclusion in the context of the German health-care system.

METHODS

Clinical data from a subset of VENT (Endobronchial Valve for Emphysema Palliation Trial) provided information about clinical events, health-related quality of life, and disease staging for 12 months. This information was subsequently used to project long-term disease progression, mortality, and health resource utilization. We computed the 5- and 10-year incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in euros per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Costs and effects were discounted at 3% per year.

RESULTS

EBV therapy led to clinically meaningful disease restaging at 12 months (37.8% of the cohort improved staging, compared to 0% in the controls). Over 5 years, EBV therapy was projected to increase survival from 66.4 to 70.7%, and to add 0.22 QALYs. Costs were estimated to increase by EUR 10,299, resulting in an ICER of EUR 46,322 per QALY. Over 10 years, 0.41 QALYs were gained at an additional cost of EUR 10,425, yielding an ICER of EUR 25,142 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model-based analysis suggests that EBV therapy leads to clinically meaningful changes in disease staging and progression when compared to medical management, with resulting gains in unadjusted and quality-adjusted life expectancy. Our results indicate that EBV therapy is cost-effective in the German health-care system.

Not simply more of the same: distinguishing between patient heterogeneity and parameter uncertainty

In cost-effectiveness (CE) Markov models, heterogeneity in the patient population is not automatically taken into account. We aimed to compare methods of dealing with heterogeneity on estimates of CE, using a case study in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We first present a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) in which we sampled only from distributions representing parameter uncertainty. This ignores any heterogeneity. Next, we explored heterogeneity by presenting results for subgroups, using a method that samples parameter uncertainty simultaneously with heterogeneity in a single-loop PSA. Finally, we distinguished parameter uncertainty from heterogeneity in a double-loop PSA by performing a nested simulation within each PSA iteration. Point estimates and uncertainty differed substantially between methods. The incremental CE ratio (ICER) ranged from € 4900 to € 13,800. The single-loop PSA led to a substantially different shape of the CE plane and an overestimation of the uncertainty compared with the other 3 methods. The CE plane for the double-loop PSA showed substantially less uncertainty and a stronger negative correlation between the difference in costs and the difference in effects compared with the other methods. This came at the cost of higher calculation times. Not accounting for heterogeneity, subgroup analysis and the double-loop PSA can be viable options, depending on the decision makers' information needs. The single-loop PSA should not be used in CE research. It disregards the fundamental differences between heterogeneity and sampling uncertainty and overestimates uncertainty as a result.

Cost-effectiveness models for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: cross-model comparison of hypothetical treatment scenarios

OBJECTIVES

To compare different chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cost-effectiveness models with respect to structure and input parameters and to cross-validate the models by running the same hypothetical treatment scenarios.

METHODS

COPD modeling groups simulated four hypothetical interventions with their model and compared the results with a reference scenario of no intervention. The four interventions modeled assumed 1) 20% reduction in decline in lung function, 2) 25% reduction in exacerbation frequency, 3) 10% reduction in all-cause mortality, and 4) all these effects combined. The interventions were simulated for a 5-year and lifetime horizon with standardization, if possible, for sex, age, COPD severity, smoking status, exacerbation frequencies, mortality due to other causes, utilities, costs, and discount rates. Furthermore, uncertainty around the outcomes of intervention four was compared.

RESULTS

Seven out of nine contacted COPD modeling groups agreed to participate. The 5-year incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the most comprehensive intervention, intervention four, was €17,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for two models, €25,000 to €28,000/QALY for three models, and €47,000/QALY for the remaining two models. Differences in the ICERs could mainly be explained by differences in input values for disease progression, exacerbation-related mortality, and all-cause mortality, with high input values resulting in low ICERs and vice versa. Lifetime results were mainly affected by the input values for mortality. The probability of intervention four to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay value of €50,000/QALY was 90% to 100% for five models and about 70% and 50% for the other two models, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality was the most important factor determining the differences in cost-effectiveness outcomes between models.

The impact of incorporating Bayesian network meta-analysis in cost-effectiveness analysis - a case study of pharmacotherapies for moderate to severe COPD

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of using network meta-analysis (NMA) versus pair wise meta-analyses (PMA) for evidence synthesis on key outputs of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA).

METHODS

We conducted Bayesian NMA of randomized clinical trials providing head-to-head and placebo comparisons of the effect of pharmacotherapies on the exacerbation rate in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Separately, the subset of placebo-comparison trials was used in a Bayesian PMA. The pooled rate ratios (RR) were used to populate a decision-analytic model of COPD treatment to predict 10-year outcomes.

RESULTS

Efficacy estimates from the NMA and PMA were similar, but the NMA provided estimates with higher precision. This resulted in similar incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). Probabilities of being cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds (WTPs) between $25,000 and $100,000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) varied considerably between the PMA- and NMA-based approaches. The largest difference in the probabilities of being cost-effective was observed at a WTP of approximately $40,000/QALY. At this threshold, with the PMA-based analysis, ICS, LAMA and placebo had a 43%, 30, and 18% probability of being the most cost-effective. By contrast, with the NMA based approach, ICS, LAMA, and placebo had a 56%, 19%, and 21% probability of being cost-effective. For larger WTP thresholds the probability of LAMA being the most cost-effective became higher than that of ICS. Under the PMA-based analyses the cross-over occurred at a WTP threshold between $60,000/QALY-$65,000/QALY, whereas under the NMA-based approach, the cross-over occurred between $85,000/QALY-$90,000/QALY.

CONCLUSION

Use of NMAs in CEAs is feasible and, as our case study showed, can decrease uncertainty around key cost-effectiveness measures compared with the use of PMAs. The approval process of health technologies in many jurisdictions requires estimates of comparative efficacy and cost-effectiveness. NMAs play an increasingly important role in providing estimates of comparative efficacy. Their use in the CEAs therefore results in methodological consistency and reduced uncertainty.

Inhaled steroids and risk of pneumonia for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) are anti-inflammatory drugs that have proven benefits for people with worsening symptoms of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and repeated exacerbations. They are commonly used as combination inhalers with long-acting beta2-agonists (LABA) to reduce exacerbation rates and all-cause mortality, and to improve lung function and quality of life. The most common combinations of ICS and LABA used in combination inhalers are fluticasone and salmeterol, budesonide and formoterol and a new formulation of fluticasone in combination with vilanterol, which is now available. ICS have been associated with increased risk of pneumonia, but the magnitude of risk and how this compares with different ICS remain unclear. Recent reviews conducted to address their safety have not compared the relative safety of these two drugs when used alone or in combination with LABA.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the risk of pneumonia associated with the use of fluticasone and budesonide for COPD.

SEARCH METHODS

We identified trials from the Cochrane Airways Group Specialised Register of trials (CAGR), clinicaltrials.gov, reference lists of existing systematic reviews and manufacturer websites. The most recent searches were conducted in September 2013.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included parallel-group randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of at least 12 weeks' duration. Studies were included if they compared the ICS budesonide or fluticasone versus placebo, or either ICS in combination with a LABA versus the same LABA as monotherapy for people with COPD.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted study characteristics, numerical data and risk of bias information for each included study.We looked at direct comparisons of ICS versus placebo separately from comparisons of ICS/LABA versus LABA for all outcomes, and we combined these with subgroups when no important heterogeneity was noted. After assessing for transitivity, we conducted an indirect comparison to compare budesonide versus fluticasone monotherapy, but we could not do the same for the combination therapies because of systematic differences between the budesonide and fluticasone combination data sets.When appropriate, we explored the effects of ICS dose, duration of ICS therapy and baseline severity on the primary outcome. Findings of all outcomes are presented in 'Summary of findings' tables using GRADEPro.

MAIN RESULTS

We found 43 studies that met the inclusion criteria, and more evidence was provided for fluticasone (26 studies; n = 21,247) than for budesonide (17 studies; n = 10,150). Evidence from the budesonide studies was more inconsistent and less precise, and the studies were shorter. The populations within studies were more often male with a mean age of around 63, mean pack-years smoked over 40 and mean predicted forced expiratory volume of one second (FEV1) less than 50%.High or uneven dropout was considered a high risk of bias in almost 40% of the trials, but conclusions for the primary outcome did not change when the trials at high risk of bias were removed in a sensitivity analysis.Fluticasone increased non-fatal serious adverse pneumonia events (requiring hospital admission) (odds ratio (OR) 1.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.50 to 2.12; 18 more per 1000 treated over 18 months; high quality), and no evidence suggested that this outcome was reduced by delivering it in combination with salmeterol or vilanterol (subgroup differences: I(2) = 0%, P value 0.51), or that different doses, trial duration or baseline severity significantly affected the estimate. Budesonide also increased non-fatal serious adverse pneumonia events compared with placebo, but the effect was less precise and was based on shorter trials (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.00 to 2.62; six more per 1000 treated over nine months; moderate quality). Some of the variation in the budesonide data could be explained by a significant difference between the two commonly used doses: 640 mcg was associated with a larger effect than 320 mcg relative to placebo (subgroup differences: I(2) = 74%, P value 0.05).An indirect comparison of budesonide versus fluticasone monotherapy revealed no significant differences with respect to serious adverse events (pneumonia-related or all-cause) or mortality. The risk of any pneumonia event (i.e. less serious cases treated in the community) was higher with fluticasone than with budesonide (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.04 to 3.34); this was the only significant difference reported between the two drugs. However, this finding should be interpreted with caution because of possible differences in the assignment of pneumonia diagnosis, and because no trials directly compared the two drugs.No significant difference in overall mortality rates was observed between either of the inhaled steroids and the control interventions (both high-quality evidence), and pneumonia-related deaths were too rare to permit conclusions to be drawn.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Budesonide and fluticasone, delivered alone or in combination with a LABA, are associated with increased risk of serious adverse pneumonia events, but neither significantly affected mortality compared with controls. The safety concerns highlighted in this review should be balanced with recent cohort data and established randomised evidence of efficacy regarding exacerbations and quality of life. Comparison of the two drugs revealed no statistically significant difference in serious pneumonias, mortality or serious adverse events. Fluticasone was associated with higher risk of any pneumonia when compared with budesonide (i.e. less serious cases dealt with in the community), but variation in the definitions used by the respective manufacturers is a potential confounding factor in their comparison.Primary research should accurately measure pneumonia outcomes and should clarify both the definition and the method of diagnosis used, especially for new formulations such as fluticasone furoate, for which little evidence of the associated pneumonia risk is currently available. Similarly, systematic reviews and cohorts should address the reliability of assigning 'pneumonia' as an adverse event or cause of death and should determine how this affects the applicability of findings.

Cost-effectiveness of roflumilast as an add-on treatment to long-acting bronchodilators in the treatment of COPD associated with chronic bronchitis in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of adding a selective phosphodiesterase-4 inhibitor, roflumilast, to a long-acting bronchodilator therapy (LABA) for the treatment of patients with severe-to-very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) associated with chronic bronchitis with a history of frequent exacerbations from the UK payer perspective.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to predict the lifetime cost and outcomes [exacerbations rates, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY)] in patients treated with roflumilast, which showed a reduction in the exacerbation rates and lung function improvement in a pooled analysis from two clinical trials, M2-124 and M2-125. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the impact of uncertainties on the cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

The addition of roflumilast to concomitant LABA reduced the number of exacerbations from 15.6 to 12.7 [2.9 (95 % CI 0.88-4.92) exacerbations avoided] and increased QALYs from 5.45 to 5.61 [0.16 (95 % CI 0.02-0.31) QALYs gained], at an incremental cost of £3,197 (95 % CI £2,135-£4,253). Cost in LABA alone and LABA + roflumilast were £16,161 and £19,358 respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in the base case were £19,505 (95 % CI £364-£38,646) per quality-adjusted life-year gained and 18,219 (95 % CI £12,697-£49,135) per life-year gained. Sensitivity analyses suggest that among the main determinants of cost-effectiveness are the reduction of exacerbations and the case fatality rate due to hospital-treated exacerbations. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggests that the probability of roflumilast being cost-effective is 82 % at willingness-to-pay £30,000 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of roflumilast to LABA in the treatment of patients with severe-to-very severe COPD reduces the rate of exacerbations and can be cost-effective in the UK setting.

Combined corticosteroid and long-acting beta₂-agonist in one inhaler versus placebo for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Both long-acting beta2-agonists (LABA) and inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) have been recommended in guidelines for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Their coadministration in a combination inhaler may facilitate adherence to medication regimens and improve efficacy.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the efficacy and safety of combined ICS and LABA for stable COPD in comparison with placebo.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Airways Group Specialised Register of trials, reference lists of included studies and manufacturers' trial registries. The date of the most recent search was June 2013.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised and double-blind studies of at least four weeks' duration. Eligible studies compared combined ICS and LABA preparations with placebo.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed study risk of bias and extracted data. Dichotomous data were analysed as fixed-effect odds ratios (OR) or rate ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), and continuous data as mean differences with 95% confidence intervals.

MAIN RESULTS

Nineteen studies met the inclusion criteria (with 10,400 participants randomly assigned, lasting between 4 and 156 weeks, mean 42 weeks). Studies used three different combined preparations (fluticasone/salmeterol, budesonide/formoterol or mometasone/formoterol). The studies were generally at low risk of bias for blinding but at unclear or high risk for attrition bias because of participant dropouts. Compared with placebo, both fluticasone/salmeterol and budesonide/formoterol reduced the rate of exacerbations. Mometasone/formoterol reduced the number of participants experiencing one or more exacerbation. Pooled analysis of the combined therapies indicated that exacerbations were less frequent when compared with placebo (Rate Ratio 0.73; 95% CI 0.69 to 0.78, 7 studies, 7495 participants); the quality of this evidence when GRADE criteria were applied was rated as moderate. Participants included in these trials had on average one or two exacerbations per year, which means that treatment with combined therapy would lead to a reduction of one exacerbation every two to four years in these individuals. An overall reduction in mortality was seen, but this outcome was dominated by the results of one study (TORCH) of fluticasone/salmeterol. Generally, deaths in the smaller, shorter studies were too few to contribute to the overall estimate. Further longer studies on budesonide/formoterol and mometasone/formoterol are required to clarify whether this is seen more widely. When a baseline risk of death of 15.2% from the placebo arm of TORCH was used, the three-year number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) with fluticasone/salmeterol to prevent one extra death was 42 (95% CI 24 to 775). All three combined treatments led to statistically significant improvement in health status measurements, although the mean differences observed are relatively small in relation to the minimum clinically important difference. Furthermore, symptoms and lung function assessments favoured combined treatments. An increase in the risk of pneumonia was noted with combined inhalers compared with placebo treatment (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.36 to 1.94), and the quality of this evidence was rated as moderate, but no dose effect was seen. The three-year NNTH for one extra case of pneumonia was 17, based on a 12.3% risk of pneumonia in the placebo arm of TORCH. Fewer participants withdrew from the combined treatment arms for adverse events or lack of efficacy.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Combined inhaler therapy led to around a quarter fewer COPD exacerbations than were seen with placebo. A significant reduction in all-cause mortality was noted, but this outcome was dominated by one trial (TORCH), emphasising the need for further trials of longer duration. Increased risk of pneumonia is a concern; however, this did not translate into increased exacerbations, hospitalisations or deaths. Current evidence does not suggest any major differences between inhalers in terms of effects, but nor is the evidence strong enough to demonstrate that all are equivalent. To permit firmer conclusions about the effects of combined therapy, more data are needed, particularly in relation to the profile of adverse events and benefits in relation to different formulations and doses of inhaled ICS. Head-to-head comparisons are necessary to determine whether one combined inhaler is better than the others.

Modeling hard clinical end-point data in economic analyses

OBJECTIVE

The availability of hard clinical end-point data, such as that on cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, is increasing, and as a result there is growing interest in using hard end-point data of this type in economic analyses. This study investigated published approaches for modeling hard end-points from clinical trials and evaluated their applicability in health economic models with different disease features.

METHODS

A review of cost-effectiveness models of interventions in clinically significant therapeutic areas (CV diseases, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory diseases) was conducted in PubMed and Embase using a defined search strategy. Only studies integrating hard end-point data from randomized clinical trials were considered. For each study included, clinical input characteristics and modeling approach were summarized and evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 33 articles (23 CV, eight cancer, two respiratory) were accepted for detailed analysis. Decision trees, Markov models, discrete event simulations, and hybrids were used. Event rates were incorporated either as constant rates, time-dependent risks, or risk equations based on patient characteristics. Risks dependent on time and/or patient characteristics were used where major event rates were >1%/year in models with fewer health states (<7). Models of infrequent events or with numerous health states generally preferred constant event rates.

LIMITATIONS

The detailed modeling information and terminology varied, sometimes requiring interpretation.

CONCLUSIONS

Key considerations for cost-effectiveness models incorporating hard end-point data include the frequency and characteristics of the relevant clinical events and how the trial data is reported. When event risk is low, simplification of both the model structure and event rate modeling is recommended. When event risk is common, such as in high risk populations, more detailed modeling approaches, including individual simulations or explicitly time-dependent event rates, are more appropriate to accurately reflect the trial data.

Smoking cessation treatment and outcomes patterns simulation: a new framework for evaluating the potential health and economic impact of smoking cessation interventions

BACKGROUND

Most existing models of smoking cessation treatments have considered a single quit attempt when modelling long-term outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a model to simulate smokers over their lifetimes accounting for multiple quit attempts and relapses which will allow for prediction of the long-term health and economic impact of smoking cessation strategies.

METHODS

A discrete event simulation (DES) that models individuals' life course of smoking behaviours, attempts to quit, and the cumulative impact on health and economic outcomes was developed. Each individual is assigned one of the available strategies used to support each quit attempt; the outcome of each attempt, time to relapses if abstinence is achieved, and time between quit attempts is tracked. Based on each individual's smoking or abstinence patterns, the risk of developing diseases associated with smoking (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, myocardial infarction and stroke) is determined and the corresponding costs, changes to mortality, and quality of life assigned. Direct costs are assessed from the perspective of a comprehensive US healthcare payer ($US, 2012 values). Quit attempt strategies that can be evaluated in the current simulation include unassisted quit attempts, brief counselling, behavioural modification therapy, nicotine replacement therapy, bupropion, and varenicline, with the selection of strategies and time between quit attempts based on equations derived from survey data. Equations predicting the success of quit attempts as well as the short-term probability of relapse were derived from five varenicline clinical trials.

RESULTS

Concordance between the five trials and predictions from the simulation on abstinence at 12 months was high, indicating that the equations predicting success and relapse in the first year following a quit attempt were reliable. Predictions allowing for only a single quit attempt versus unrestricted attempts demonstrate important differences, with the single quit attempt simulation predicting 19 % more smoking-related diseases and 10 % higher costs associated with smoking-related diseases. Differences are most prominent in predictions of the time that individuals abstain from smoking: 13.2 years on average over a lifetime allowing for multiple quit attempts, versus only 1.2 years with single quit attempts. Differences in abstinence time estimates become substantial only 5 years into the simulation. In the multiple quit attempt simulations, younger individuals survived longer, yet had lower lifetime smoking-related disease and total costs, while the opposite was true for those with high levels of nicotine dependence.

CONCLUSION

By allowing for multiple quit attempts over the course of individuals' lives, the simulation can provide more reliable estimates on the health and economic impact of interventions designed to increase abstinence from smoking. Furthermore, the individual nature of the simulation allows for evaluation of outcomes in populations with different baseline profiles. DES provides a framework for comprehensive and appropriate predictions when applied to smoking cessation over smoker lifetimes.

Combined corticosteroid and long-acting beta(2)-agonist in one inhaler versus inhaled corticosteroids alone for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Both long-acting beta(2)-agonists and inhaled corticosteroids have been recommended in guidelines for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Their co-administration in a combined inhaler is intended to facilitate adherence to medication regimens and to improve efficacy. Three preparations are currently available: fluticasone propionate/salmeterol (FPS). budesonide/formoterol (BDF) and mometasone furoate/formoterol (MF/F).

OBJECTIVES

To assess the efficacy and safety of combined long-acting beta2-agonist and inhaled corticosteroid (LABA/ICS) preparations, as measured by clinical endpoints and pulmonary function testing, compared with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) alone, in the treatment of adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Airways Group Specialised Register of trials, which is compiled from systematic searches of multiple literature databases. The search was conducted in June 2013. In addition, we checked the reference lists of included studies and contacted the relevant manufacturers.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies were included if they were randomised and double-blind. Compared studies combined LABA/ICS with the ICS component.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. The primary outcomes were exacerbations, mortality and pneumonia. Health-related quality of life (as measured by validated scales), lung function and side effects were secondary outcomes. Dichotomous data were analysed as fixed-effect odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and continuous data as mean differences or rate ratios and 95% CIs.

MAIN RESULTS

A total of 15 studies of good methodological quality met the inclusion criteria by randomly assigning 7814 participants with predominantly poorly reversible, severe COPD. Data were most plentiful for the FPS combination. Exacerbation rates were significantly reduced with combination therapies (rate ratio 0.87, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.94, 6 studies, N = 5601) compared with ICS alone. The mean exacerbation rate in the control (ICS) arms of the six included studies was 1.21 exacerbations per participant per year (range 0.88 to 1.60), and we would expect this to be reduced to a rate of 1.05 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.14) among those given combination therapy. Mortality was also lower with the combination (odds ratio (OR) 0.78, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.94, 12 studies, N = 7518) than with ICS alone, but this was heavily weighted by a three-year study of FPS. When this study was removed, no significant mortality difference was noted. The reduction in exacerbations did not translate into significantly reduced rates of hospitalisation due to COPD exacerbation (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.07, 10 studies, N = 7060). Lung function data favoured combination treatment in the FPS, BDF and MF/F trials, but the improvement was small. Small improvements in health-related quality of life were measured on the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) with FPS or BDF compared with ICS, but this was well below the minimum clinically important difference. Adverse event profiles were similar between the two treatments arms, and rates of pneumonia when it was diagnosed by chest x-ray (CXR) were lower than those reported in earlier trials.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Combination ICS and LABA offer some clinical benefits in COPD compared with ICS alone, especially for reduction in exacerbations. This review does not support the use of ICS alone when LABAs are available. Adverse events were not significantly different between treatments. Further long-term assessments using practical outcomes of current and new 24-hour LABAs will help determine their efficacy and safety. For robust comparisons as to their relative effects, long-term head-to-head comparisons are needed.