Reduced prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in young children participating in longitudinal follow-up

Paediatric screening in Italy as a gateway to secondary prevention in type 1 diabetes

This article explores Italy's pioneering national paediatric screening initiative for type 1 diabetes (T1D), the first of its kind to be mandated by the Italian law for the general population aged 1-17 years. This initiative is designed to facilitate early detection and secondary prevention of T1D and coeliac disease (CD), aiming to identify children in presymptomatic stages of T1D, regardless of family history. Emphasis is placed on autoantibody screening for T1D and CD to refine risk prediction and enhance secondary prevention efforts. Furthermore, the anti-CD3 + T cell monoclonal antibody teplizumab, which may be considered at present for compassionate use only, represents a step forward in delaying T1D onset in stage 2 patients. Italy's comprehensive screening law, passed in 2023, allows for early detection of T1D minimising the risk of consequences such as DKA at diagnosis. The screening will also advance our understanding of T1D disease pathogenesis and progression. These insights advocate for tailored prevention strategies, thus improving the design of clinical trials.

Continuous glucose monitor metrics from five studies identify participants at risk for type 1 diabetes development

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We aimed to assess whether continuous glucose monitor (CGM) metrics can accurately predict stage 3 type 1 diabetes diagnosis in those with islet autoantibodies (AAb).

METHODS

Baseline CGM data were collected from participants with ≥1 positive AAb type from five studies: ASK (n=79), BDR (n=22), DAISY (n=18), DIPP (n=8) and TrialNet Pathway to Prevention (n=91). Median follow-up time was 2.6 years (quartiles: 1.5 to 3.6 years). A participant characteristics-only model, a CGM metrics-only model and a full model combining characteristics and CGM metrics were compared.

RESULTS

The full model achieved a numerically higher performance predictor estimate (C statistic=0.74; 95% CI 0.66, 0.81) for predicting stage 3 type 1 diabetes diagnosis compared with the characteristics-only model (C statistic=0.69; 95% CI 0.60, 0.77) and the CGM-only model (C statistic=0.68; 95% CI 0.61, 0.75). Greater percentage of time >7.8 mmol/l (p<0.001), HbA1c (p=0.02), having a first-degree relative with type 1 diabetes (p=0.02) and testing positive for IA-2 AAb (p<0.001) were associated with greater risk of type 1 diabetes diagnosis. Additionally, being male (p=0.06) and having a negative GAD AAb (p=0.09) were selected but not found to be significant. Participants classified as having low (n=79), medium (n=98) or high (n=41) risk of stage 3 type 1 diabetes diagnosis using the full model had a probability of developing symptomatic disease by 2 years of 5%, 13% and 48%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

CGM metrics can help predict disease progression and classify an individual's risk of type 1 diabetes diagnosis in conjunction with other factors. CGM can also be used to better assess the risk of type 1 diabetes progression and define eligibility for potential prevention trials.

Repeated OGTT Versus Continuous Glucose Monitoring for Predicting Development of Stage 3 Type 1 Diabetes: A Longitudinal Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Evidence for using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) as an alternative to oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) in presymptomatic type 1 diabetes is primarily cross-sectional. We used longitudinal data to compare the diagnostic performance of repeated CGM, HbA1c, and OGTT metrics to predict progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Thirty-four multiple autoantibody-positive first-degree relatives (FDRs) (BMI SD score [SDS] <2) were followed in a multicenter study with semiannual 5-day CGM recordings, HbA1c, and OGTT for a median of 3.5 (interquartile range [IQR] 2.0-7.5) years. Longitudinal patterns were compared based on progression status. Prediction of rapid (<3 years) and overall progression to stage 3 was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) areas under the curve (AUCs), Kaplan-Meier method, baseline Cox proportional hazards models (concordance), and extended Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates in multiple record data (n = 197 OGTTs and concomitant CGM recordings), adjusted for intraindividual correlations (corrected Akaike information criterion [AICc]).

RESULTS

After a median of 40 (IQR 20-91) months, 17 of 34 FDRs (baseline median age 16.6 years) developed stage 3 type 1 diabetes. CGM metrics increased close to onset, paralleling changes in OGTT, both with substantial intra- and interindividual variability. Cross-sectionally, the best OGTT and CGM metrics similarly predicted rapid (ROC AUC = 0.86-0.92) and overall progression (concordance = 0.73-0.78). In longitudinal models, OGTT-derived AUC glucose (AICc = 71) outperformed the best CGM metric (AICc = 75) and HbA1c (AICc = 80) (all P < 0.001). HbA1c complemented repeated CGM metrics (AICc = 68), though OGTT-based multivariable models remained superior (AICc = 59).

CONCLUSIONS

In longitudinal models, repeated CGM and HbA1c were nearly as effective as OGTT in predicting stage 3 type 1 diabetes and may be more convenient for long-term clinical monitoring.

A type 1 diabetes prediction model has utility across multiple screening settings with recalibration

Background

Accurate type 1 diabetes prediction is important to facilitate screening for pre-clinical type 1 diabetes to enable potential early disease-modifying interventions and to reduce the risk of severe presentation with diabetic ketoacidosis. We aimed to assess the generalisability of a prediction model developed in children followed from birth. Additionally, we sought to create an application for easy calculation and visualization of individualized risk prediction.

Methods

We developed and refined a stratified prediction model combining a genetic risk score, age, islet autoantibodies, and family history using data from children followed since birth by The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study. We tested the validity of the model through external validation in the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study, which conducts cross-sectional screening in relatives of people with type 1 diabetes. We recalibrated the model by adjusting for baseline risk and selection criteria in TrialNet using logistic recalibration to improve calibration across all ages.

Results

The study included 7,798 TEDDY and 4,068 TrialNet participants, with 305 (4%) and 1,373 (34%) developing type 1 diabetes, respectively. The combined model showed similar discriminative ability in autoantibody-positive individuals across TEDDY and TrialNet (p=0.14), but inferior calibration in TrialNet (Brier score 0.40 [0.38,0.43]). Adjustment for baseline risk and selection criteria in TrialNet using logistic recalibration improved calibration across all ages (Brier score 0.16 [0.14,0.17]; p<0.001). A web calculator was developed to visualise individual risk estimates (https://t1dpredictor.diabetesgenes.org).

Conclusions

A stratified model of type 1 diabetes genetic risk score, family history, age, and autoantibody status accurately predicts type 1 diabetes risk, but may need recalibration according to screening stategy.

Pediatric Diabetic Ketoacidosis (PDKA) among newly diagnosed diabetic patients at Dilla University Hospital, Dilla, Ethiopia: Prevalence and predictors

BACKGROUND

Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is a morbid complication of Type 1 diabetes mellitus(T1DM), and its occurrence at diagnosis has rarely been studied in Ethiopia, despite the many cases seen in the pediatric population.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to know the prevalence of DKA among patients with newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus and identify avoidable risk factors.

METHOD

This institution-based retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted from December 1, 2018 to December1, 2022. Newly diagnosed T1DM under 15 years were included in the study. DKA and the new diagnosis of type 1 DM were defined based on the 2022 ISPAD and other international guidelines. A data collection form was used to collect sociodemographic and clinical data. Descriptive, bivariate, and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the risk factors.

RESULT

Among the 61 newly diagnosed T1DM pediatric patients admitted, DKA was the initial presentation in 37 patients, accounting for 60.7% of the cases. The mean age at diagnosis was 8 (±3.85) years, with females being more affected. Clinical presentation revealed vomiting accompanied by signs of dehydration (32.4%), with polyuria, polydipsia and weight loss (26.2%) being the most common symptoms. The presence of adequate knowledge of signs and symptoms of DM (AOR = 0.07, 95%CI 0.019-0.0897, P value 0.017) and a family history of DM (AOR = 0.129 95%CI 0.019-0.897, P value 0.039) were protective factors against DKA as the initial diagnosis of DM. Moreover, new-onset type 1 DM without DKA was 1.5 times higher in children from families with a high monthly income (AOR = 1.473, 95% CI 0.679-3.195 p value 0.000) compared to those from families with low income. The presence of an infection prior to DKA (AOR = 11.69,95%CI 1.34-10.1,P value 0.026) was associated with the diagnosis of DKA at the initial presentation of DM.

CONCLUSION

A high number of children present with diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at the initial diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM), which is associated with inadequate knowledge of the signs and symptoms of DM as well as the masking effect of concomitant infections in these children. Healthcare professionals should endeavor to suspect and screen children. Continuous awareness creation of DM is encouraged to diagnose diabetes mellitus earlier and to decrease the prevalence of DKA as an initial presentation.

EDENT1FI Master Protocol for screening of presymptomatic early-stage type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents

INTRODUCTION

The identification of type 1 diabetes at an early presymptomatic stage has clinical benefits. These include a reduced risk of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at the clinical manifestation of the disease and a significant reduction in clinical symptoms. The European action for the Diagnosis of Early Non-clinical Type 1 diabetes For disease Interception (EDENT1FI) represents a pioneering effort to advance early detection of type 1 diabetes through public health screening. With the EDENT1FI Master Protocol, the project aims to harmonise and standardise screening for early-stage type 1 diabetes and care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Public health islet autoantibody screening is conducted in the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Sweden and the UK. Between November 2023 (start date) and October 2028 (planned end date), an estimated number of 200 000 children and adolescents aged 1-17 years are expected to be screened. Screening is performed in capillary blood, examining different islet autoantibodies (autoantibodies against insulin, glutamic acid decarboxylase-65, insulinoma-associated antigen-2 and/or zinc transporter-8). Positive screening results undergo confirmation through a second antibody method. A second (venous) blood sample is requested if at least two autoantibodies are detected, to confirm the autoantibody status. Children and adolescents with confirmed two or more autoantibodies are invited to metabolic staging (oral glucose tolerance test, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), random glucose, optionally continuous glucose monitoring); an educational programme and recommendations for monitoring are provided. The feasibility and acceptability of screening are evaluated by feedback questionnaires. Pseudonymised data is collated in the EDENT1FI Registry. Study outcomes include country-specific screening rates, prevalences of stage 1 and stage 2 type 1 diabetes, number in EDENT1FI Registry, proportion with DKA and symptoms at clinical diagnosis and median HbA1c.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Following the EDENT1FI Master Protocol, site-specific protocols are developed and approved by local ethics committees (Technical University of Munich, Medical Faculty, Nr. 70/14; Medizinische Hochschule Hannover, Nr. 9588_BO_S_2021; Technische Universität Dresden, Nr. BO-EK-356082020; Center for Sundhed Region Hovedstaden, Nr. H-22053116; Swedish Ethical Review Authority, Nr. 2023-00312-01; National Health Service Health Research Authority and Health Care Research Wales, IRAS (Integrated Research Application System) project ID 309252; Italian National Institute of Health, National ethics committee for clinical trials of public research bodies (EPR) and other national public institutions, Prot. PRE BIO CE Nr. 0059835; Charles University in Prague, Ethics Committee for Multi-Centric Clinical Trials of the University Hopital Motol and 2nd Faculty of Medicine, Nr. 1271/23; Bioethics Committee at the Medical University of Warsaw, Nr. 21/2024 and KB/6/R/2024; Associação Protectora dos Diabéticos de Portugal, Nr. 211/2024). Results are disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations and will be shared openly.

[Early Detection Of Type 1 Diabetes By Islet Autoantibody Screening: A Position Paper Of The Fr1daplex Project Leaders And Training Centres, Bvkj Bavaria And Paednetz (Registered) Bavaria]

This position paper is based on the authors' many years of clinical experience and basic science research on the diagnosis and treatment of children and adolescents with a presymptomatic early stage of type 1 diabetes. The benefits as well as potential disadvantages of early detection of type 1 diabetes by islet autoantibody screening are critically discussed. In addition, the perspectives of delaying the onset of the clinical metabolic disease through treatment with teplizumab are addressed. Today, we see the chance for a relevant improvement in therapeutic options and life perspectives of affected children and adolescents. Important next steps for the implementation of islet autoantibody screening in Germany are the training of pediatricians who should inform families about the screening, establishment of a few transregional laboratories that carry out the test, and expansion of regional capacities for the training and care of children with an early stage of type 1 diabetes.

Lower Prevalence of Diabetic Ketoacidosis at Diagnosis in Research Participants Monitored for Hyperglycemia

CONTEXT

In Colorado children, the prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at diagnosis of type 1 diabetes has been increasing over time.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prevalence of and factors involved in DKA at type 1 diabetes diagnosis among participants followed in monitoring research studies before diagnosis compared to patients from the community.

METHODS

We studied patients < 18 years diagnosed with type 1 diabetes between 2005 and 2021 at the Barbara Davis Center for Diabetes and compared the prevalence of and factors associated with DKA at diagnosis among participants in preclinical monitoring studies vs those diagnosed in the community.

RESULTS

Of 5049 subjects, 164 were active study participants, 42 inactive study participants, and 4843 were community patients. Active study participants, compared to community patients, had lower HbA1c (7.3% vs 11.9%; P < .001) and less frequently experienced DKA (4.9% vs 48.5%; P < .001), including severe DKA (1.2% vs 16.2%; P < .001). Inactive study participants had intermediate levels for both prevalence and severity of DKA. DKA prevalence increased in community patients, from 44.0% to 55%, with less evidence for a temporal trend in study participants. DKA prevalence was highest in children < 2 years (13% in active study participants vs 83% in community patients). In community patients, younger age (P = .0038), public insurance (P < .0001), rural residence (P < .0076), higher HbA1c (P < .0001), and ethnicity minority status (P < .0001) were associated with DKA at diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

While DKA prevalence increases in community patients over time, it stayed < 5% in active research participants, who have a 10 times lower prevalence of DKA at diagnosis, including among minorities.

ISPAD Clinical Practice Consensus Guidelines 2024: Screening, Staging, and Strategies to Preserve Beta-Cell Function in Children and Adolescents with Type 1 Diabetes

The International Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Diabetes (ISPAD) guidelines represent a rich repository that serves as the only comprehensive set of clinical recommendations for children, adolescents, and young adults living with diabetes worldwide. This guideline serves as an update to the 2022 ISPAD consensus guideline on staging for type 1 diabetes (T1D). Key additions include an evidence-based summary of recommendations for screening for risk of T1D and monitoring those with early-stage T1D. In addition, a review of clinical trials designed to delay progression to Stage 3 T1D and efforts seeking to preserve beta-cell function in those with Stage 3 T1D are included. Lastly, opportunities and challenges associated with the recent US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of teplizumab as an immunotherapy to delay progression are discussed. The International Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Diabetes (ISPAD) guidelines represent a rich repository that serves as the only comprehensive set of clinical recommendations for children, adolescents, and young adults living with diabetes worldwide. This guideline serves as an update to the 2022 ISPAD consensus guideline on staging for type 1 diabetes (T1D). Key additions include an evidence-based summary of recommendations for screening for risk of T1D and monitoring those with early-stage T1D. In addition, a review of clinical trials designed to delay progression to Stage 3 T1D and efforts seeking to preserve beta-cell function in those with Stage 3 T1D are included. Lastly, opportunities and challenges associated with the recent US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of teplizumab as an immunotherapy to delay progression are discussed.

Circulating non-coding RNA in type 1 diabetes mellitus as a source of potential biomarkers - An emerging role of sex difference

Non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs), such as microRNA, long non-coding RNA, and circular RNA, are considered essential regulatory molecules mediating many cellular processes. Moreover, an increasing number of studies have investigated the role of ncRNAs in cancers and various metabolic disorders, including diabetes mellitus. Interestingly, some circulating ncRNA detected in body fluids may serve as novel biomarkers. There is still a lack of conventional biomarkers that detect the early stage of type 1 diabetes mellitus. Many circulating microRNA, long non-coding RNA, and circular RNA show aberrant expression in type 1 diabetes patients compared to healthy individuals. However, most studies have focused on circulating microRNA rather than long non-coding RNA or circular RNA. In addition, a few studies have evaluated sex differences in ncRNA biomarkers. Therefore, this article summarises current knowledge about circulating ncRNAs as potential biomarkers for type 1 diabetes and explores the effects of sex on such biomarkers.

Presentation and characteristics of children with screen-detected type 1 diabetes: learnings from the ELSA general population pediatric screening study

INTRODUCTION

We describe the identification and management of general population screen-detected type 1 diabetes (T1D) and share learnings for best practice.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Children diagnosed with T1D through a general population screening initiative, the EarLy Surveillance for Autoimmune diabetes (ELSA) study, were reviewed and described.Parents provided written, informed consent for inclusion in the case series.

RESULTS

14 children with insulin requiring (stage 3) T1D are described. These cases offer unique insights into the features of screen-detected T1D. T1D is identified sooner through screening programs, characterized by absent/short symptom duration, median presenting glycated hemoglobin 6.6% (49 mmol/mol) and insulin requirements<0.5 units/kg/day. ELSA identified four children at stage 3 and another 4 progressed within 4 months of ELSA completion, including two single seropositive children. Six children developed stage 3 T1D prior to ELSA completion, including two children (14%, n=2/14) with diabetic ketoacidosis prior to confirmed antibody status.

CONCLUSIONS

There are three main learnings from this case series. First, T1D identified through screening is at an earlier stage of its natural history and requires personalized insulin regimens with lower total daily insulin doses. Second, single autoantibody seropositivity can rapidly progress to stage 3. Finally, insulin requirement can manifest at any stage of the T1D screening pathway, and therefore early education around symptom recognition is essential for families participating in screening programs.

Consensus guidance for monitoring individuals with islet autoantibody-positive pre-stage 3 type 1 diabetes

Given the proven benefits of screening to reduce diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) likelihood at the time of stage 3 type 1 diabetes diagnosis, and emerging availability of therapy to delay disease progression, type 1 diabetes screening programmes are being increasingly emphasised. Once broadly implemented, screening initiatives will identify significant numbers of islet autoantibody-positive (IAb+) children and adults who are at risk of (confirmed single IAb+) or living with (multiple IAb+) early-stage (stage 1 and stage 2) type 1 diabetes. These individuals will need monitoring for disease progression; much of this care will happen in non-specialised settings. To inform this monitoring, JDRF in conjunction with international experts and societies developed consensus guidance. Broad advice from this guidance includes the following: (1) partnerships should be fostered between endocrinologists and primary-care providers to care for people who are IAb+; (2) when people who are IAb+ are initially identified there is a need for confirmation using a second sample; (3) single IAb+ individuals are at lower risk of progression than multiple IAb+ individuals; (4) individuals with early-stage type 1 diabetes should have periodic medical monitoring, including regular assessments of glucose levels, regular education about symptoms of diabetes and DKA, and psychosocial support; (5) interested people with stage 2 type 1 diabetes should be offered trial participation or approved therapies; and (6) all health professionals involved in monitoring and care of individuals with type 1 diabetes have a responsibility to provide education. The guidance also emphasises significant unmet needs for further research on early-stage type 1 diabetes to increase the rigour of future recommendations and inform clinical care.

Consensus Guidance for Monitoring Individuals With Islet Autoantibody-Positive Pre-Stage 3 Type 1 Diabetes

Given the proven benefits of screening to reduce diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) likelihood at the time of stage 3 type 1 diabetes diagnosis, and emerging availability of therapy to delay disease progression, type 1 diabetes screening programs are being increasingly emphasized. Once broadly implemented, screening initiatives will identify significant numbers of islet autoantibody-positive (IAb+) children and adults who are at risk for (confirmed single IAb+) or living with (multiple IAb+) early-stage (stage 1 and stage 2) type 1 diabetes. These individuals will need monitoring for disease progression; much of this care will happen in nonspecialized settings. To inform this monitoring, JDRF, in conjunction with international experts and societies, developed consensus guidance. Broad advice from this guidance includes the following: 1) partnerships should be fostered between endocrinologists and primary care providers to care for people who are IAb+; 2) when people who are IAb+ are initially identified, there is a need for confirmation using a second sample; 3) single IAb+ individuals are at lower risk of progression than multiple IAb+ individuals; 4) individuals with early-stage type 1 diabetes should have periodic medical monitoring, including regular assessments of glucose levels, regular education about symptoms of diabetes and DKA, and psychosocial support; 5) interested people with stage 2 type 1 diabetes should be offered trial participation or approved therapies; and 6) all health professionals involved in monitoring and care of individuals with type 1 diabetes have a responsibility to provide education. The guidance also emphasizes significant unmet needs for further research on early-stage type 1 diabetes to increase the rigor of future recommendations and inform clinical care.

The Psychometric Properties of the Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Screening Acceptability Assessment (DMSA) Scale among General Population

Background

Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) screening facilitates access to early intervention and prevention of severe complications, such as diabetic ketoacidosis. Despite its significance, many countries lack a systematic T1DM screening program. Understanding how the public perceives T1DM screening for children is essential for successfully implementing such programs but is currently an area with limited research. Our study aims to fill this gap by developing a standardized tool designed to assess the acceptability of T1DM screening programs for children, focusing on caregiver perspectives within the general population.

Materials and Methods

We developed the Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Screening Acceptability (DMSA) scale based on the theoretical framework of acceptability and integrated components from the Pediatric Testing Attitudes Scale-Diabetes (P-TAS-D). It covers a broad spectrum of acceptability constructs. The DMSA scale underwent iterative modifications following expert feedback to refine clarity and content validity. We tested the scale in both Arabic and English with adults living in Saudi Arabia, regardless of their parental status, focusing on the potential of screening their children. The psychometric strengths of the scale were evaluated through reliability analyses and exploratory factor analysis.

Results

Of the 599 participants, the majority were female (89.2%), with a mean age of 35.9 ± 8.6 years. The final DMSA scale consists of 10 items, with two distinct factors: "individual acceptability" and "psychosocial acceptability." The mean total score was 42.9 ± 5.1 across a potential range of 10-50 points. The English and Arabic versions of the scale demonstrated strong reliability, with Cronbach's alpha values of 0.84 and 0.79, respectively.

Conclusions

The DMSA scale emerges as a valid and reliable tool for gauging the acceptability of the general population of screening children for T1DM. It integrates key elements of the acceptability construct, pivotal for guiding the implementation of culturally sensitive T1DM screening initiatives. Future research should expand its application across various cultural settings and examine the correlation between scale scores and actual screening behaviors.

Recommendations for Screening and Monitoring the Stages of Type 1 Diabetes in the Immune Therapy Era

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a complex, chronic autoimmune disease that affects over 1.6 million people in the United States. It is now understood that T1D may be undetected for many years while the disease progresses quietly without producing symptoms. T1D can be identified through diabetes-related autoantibody screening and staged accordingly, enabling healthcare providers to identify high-risk individuals in the early stages of the disease and either provide a stage-specific intervention or offer clinical trial opportunities to preserve beta cell function and anticipate the onset of clinical T1D. Evidence-based clinical practice guidelines currently do not exist for routine diabetes-related autoantibody screening of individuals at risk of developing T1D or of the general population. The purpose of this article is to help clinicians acquire an understanding of the rationale and protocols recommended for identifying patients at risk of developing T1D and monitoring such patients for autoimmune markers and progression of disease from Stage 1 to Stage 3 (clinical disease).

Assisting the implementation of screening for type 1 diabetes by using artificial intelligence on publicly available data

The type 1 diabetes community is coalescing around the benefits and advantages of early screening for disease risk. To be accepted by healthcare providers, regulatory authorities and payers, screening programmes need to show that the testing variables allow accurate risk prediction and that individualised risk-informed monitoring plans are established, as well as operational feasibility, cost-effectiveness and acceptance at population level. Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to contribute to solving these issues, starting with the identification and stratification of at-risk individuals. ASSET (AI for Sustainable Prevention of Autoimmunity in the Society; www.asset.healthcare ) is a public/private consortium that was established to contribute to research around screening for type 1 diabetes and particularly to how AI can drive the implementation of a precision medicine approach to disease prevention. ASSET will additionally focus on issues pertaining to operational implementation of screening. The authors of this article, researchers and clinicians active in the field of type 1 diabetes, met in an open forum to independently debate key issues around screening for type 1 diabetes and to advise ASSET. The potential use of AI in the analysis of longitudinal data from observational cohort studies to inform the design of improved, more individualised screening programmes was also discussed. A key issue was whether AI would allow the research community and industry to capitalise on large publicly available data repositories to design screening programmes that allow the early detection of individuals at high risk and enable clinical evaluation of preventive therapies. Overall, AI has the potential to revolutionise type 1 diabetes screening, in particular to help identify individuals who are at increased risk of disease and aid in the design of appropriate follow-up plans. We hope that this initiative will stimulate further research on this very timely topic.

Development of a clinical calculator to aid the identification of MODY in pediatric patients at the time of diabetes diagnosis

Maturity Onset Diabetes of the Young (MODY) is a young-onset, monogenic form of diabetes without needing insulin treatment. Diagnostic testing is expensive. To aid decisions on who to test, we aimed to develop a MODY probability calculator for paediatric cases at the time of diabetes diagnosis, when the existing "MODY calculator" cannot be used. Firth logistic regression models were developed on data from 3541 paediatric patients from the Swedish 'Better Diabetes Diagnosis' (BDD) population study (n = 46 (1.3%) MODY (HNF1A, HNF4A, GCK)). Model performance was compared to using islet autoantibody testing. HbA1c, parent with diabetes, and absence of polyuria were significant independent predictors of MODY. The model showed excellent discrimination (c-statistic = 0.963) and calibrated well (Brier score = 0.01). MODY probability > 1.3% (ie. above background prevalence) had similar performance to being negative for all 3 antibodies (positive predictive value (PPV) = 10% v 11% respectively i.e. ~ 1 in 10 positive test rate). Probability > 1.3% and negative for 3 islet autoantibodies narrowed down to 4% of the cohort, and detected 96% of MODY cases (PPV = 31%). This MODY calculator for paediatric patients at time of diabetes diagnosis will help target genetic testing to those most likely to benefit, to get the right diagnosis.

Diabetes and Dyslipidemia Screening in Pediatric Practice

The incidence of diabetes and hyperlipidemia are increasing at rapid rates in children. These conditions are associated with increased risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications causing major morbidity and mortality later in life. Early diagnosis and treatment can reduce the lifelong risk of complications from these diseases, exemplifying the importance of screening in the pediatric population. The following article presents a summary of the current guidelines for diabetes and hyperlipidemia screening in pediatric patients.

Home capillary sampling and screening for type 1 diabetes, celiac disease, and autoimmune thyroid disease in a Swedish general pediatric population: the TRIAD study

Objective

To screen a general pediatric population for type 1 diabetes (T1D), celiac disease (CD), and autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD) after home capillary sampling.

Methods

Swedish schoolchildren between 6-9 years and 13-16 years of age were invited to screening by taking a capillary sample at home. Samples were returned by mail and assessed for autoantibodies associated with T1D, CD, and AITD. Persistently autoantibody-positive children were referred for clinical follow-up.

Results

Of 19,593 invited, 3,527 (18.0%) consented to participate and 2,315/3,527 (65.6%) returned a blood sample of sufficient volume. Hemolysis occurred in 830/2,301 (36.1%) samples. After exclusion of 42 children with previously known T1D, CD, or AITD, and two autoantibody-positive children who declined a confirmatory sample, 2,271/19,593 (11.6%) were included. 211/2,271 (9.3%) had persistent autoantibodies: 60/2,271 (2.6%) with T1D autoantibodies, 61/2,271 (2.7%) with CD autoantibodies, and 99/2,271 (4.4%) with AITD autoantibodies; 9/2,271 (0.4%) were autoantibody positive for ≥1 disease. After clinical follow-up, 3/2,271 (0.1%) were diagnosed with T1D, 26/2,271 (1.1%) with CD, and 6/2,271 (0.3%) with AITD. Children with a first-degree relative (FDR) with T1D, CD, and/or AITD, had higher occurrence of autoantibodies compared to children without an FDR (63/344, 18.3%, vs. 148/1,810, 8.2%) (p < 0.0001, OR 2.52, 95% CI 1.83-3.47), and higher occurrence of screening-detected diagnosis (14/344, 4.1%, vs. 21/1,810, 1.2%) (p < 0.0001, OR 3.61, 95% CI 1.82-7.18). Half of these children screened positive for another disease than the FDR.

Conclusion

Screening for T1D, CD, and AITD by home capillary sampling in a Swedish general pediatric population detected autoimmunity in 9.3% and undiagnosed disease in 1.5%.

Predicting the Risk of Developing Type 1 Diabetes Using a One-Week Continuous Glucose Monitoring Home Test With Classification Enhanced by Machine Learning: An Exploratory Study

BACKGROUND

Detection of two or more autoantibodies (Ab) in the blood might describe those individuals at increased risk of developing type 1 diabetes (T1D) during the following years. The aim of this exploratory study is to propose a high versus low T1D risk classifier using machine learning technology based on continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) home data.

METHODS

Forty-two healthy relatives of people with T1D with mean ± SD age of 23.8 ± 10.5 years, HbA1c (glycated hemoglobin) of 5.3% ± 0.3%, and BMI (body mass index) of 23.2 ± 5.2 kg/m2 with zero (low risk; N = 21), and ≥2 (high risk; N = 21) Ab, were enrolled in an NIH (National Institutes of Health)-funded TrialNet ancillary study. Participants wore a CGM for a week and consumed three standardized liquid mixed meals (SLMM) instead of three breakfasts. Glycemic features were extracted from two-hour post-SLMM CGM traces, compared across groups, and used in four supervised machine learning Ab risk status classifiers. Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) algorithm was used for feature selection; classifiers were evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation, using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC-ROC) to select the best classification model.

RESULTS

The percent time of glucose >180 mg/dL (T180), glucose range, and glucose CV (coefficient of variation) were the only significant differences between the glycemic features in the two groups with P values of .040, .035, and .028 respectively. The linear SVM (Support Vector Machine) model with RFE features achieved the best performance of classifying low-risk versus high-risk individuals with AUC-ROC = 0.88.

CONCLUSIONS

A machine learning technology, combining a potentially self-administered one-week CGM home test, has the potential to reliably assess the T1D risk.

Advances in risk predictive performance of pre-symptomatic type 1 diabetes via the multiplex Antibody-Detection-by-Agglutination-PCR assay

Introduction

Achieving early diagnosis of pre-symptomatic type 1 diabetes is critical to reduce potentially life-threatening diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at symptom onset, link patients to FDA approved therapeutics that can delay disease progression and support novel interventional drugs development. The presence of two or more islet autoantibodies in pre-symptomatic type 1 diabetes patients indicates high-risk of progression to clinical manifestation.

Method

Herein, we characterized the capability of multiplex ADAP assay to predict type 1 diabetes progression. We obtained retrospective coded sera from a cohort of 48 progressors and 44 non-progressors from the NIDDK DPT-1 study.

Result

The multiplex ADAP assay and radiobinding assays had positive predictive value (PPV)/negative predictive value (NPV) of 68%/92% and 67%/66% respectively. The improved NPV stemmed from 12 progressors tested positive for multiple islet autoantibodies by multiplex ADAP assay but not by RBA. Furthermore, 6 out of these 12 patients tested positive for multiple islet autoantibodies by RBA in subsequent sampling events with a median delay of 2.8 years compared to multiplex ADAP assay.

Discussion

In summary, multiplex ADAP assay could be an ideal tool for type 1 diabetes risk testing due to its sample-sparing nature (4µL), non-radioactiveness, compatibility with widely available real-time qPCR instruments and favorable risk prediction capability.

Teplizumab: promises and challenges of a recently approved monoclonal antibody for the prevention of type 1 diabetes or preservation of residual beta cell function

INTRODUCTION

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a chronic autoimmune endocrinopathy with increasing incidence that results in the depletion of pancreatic beta cells and exogenous insulin dependence. Despite technological advances in insulin delivery, disease control remains suboptimal, while previous immunotherapy options have failed to prevent T1D. Recently, teplizumab, an immunomodulating monoclonal antibody, was approved to delay or prevent T1D.

AREAS COVERED

Five randomized controlled trials have tested different regimens of administration, mostly 14-day schemes with dose escalation. In participants with new-onset T1D, teplizumab delayed C-peptide decline, improved glycemic control, and reduced insulin demand for a median of 1 or 2 years. Studies in at-risk relatives of patients showed a decrease in T1D incidence during 2 years of follow-up. Subgroups of responders with unique metabolic and immunological characteristics were identified. Mild to moderate adverse effects were reported, including transient rash, cytopenia, nausea, vomiting, and infections.

EXPERT OPINION

Teplizumab marks a turning point in T1D therapy. Areas of future research include the ideal population for screening, cost-effectiveness, and challenges in treatment accessibility. More studies are essential to evaluate the ideal duration of the regimen, the potential benefit of combinations with other drugs, and to identify endophenotypes with a high probability of response.

Relative Frequency of Islet Autoimmunity in Children and Adolescents with Autoimmune Thyroid Disease

Objective

The aim of the present study was to investigate islet autoimmunity and susceptibility to type 1 diabetes (T1D) in children/adolescents with autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD, and in family members of AITD patients with islet autoimmunity.

Methods

Islet-cell cytoplasmic, glutamic-acid decarboxylase, and tyrosine-phosphatase autoantibodies (AAbs) were measured in 161 AITD patients [127 with autoimmune thyroiditis (AT); 34 with Graves’ disease (GD)], 20 family members of AITD patients with islet autoimmunity, and 155 age-matched controls.

Results

Islet autoimmunity was found in 10.6% of AITD patients, significantly more frequent than in controls (1.9%; p=0.002). A higher prevalence of islet AAbs was found in females with AITD (p=0.011) but not in males (p=0.16) and in AT (p=0.013) but not in GD patients (p=0.19), compared to corresponding controls. Two or three islet AAbs were found concurrently in six AITD patients with islet autoimmunity. They all developed T1D and had significantly higher islet AAbs titers (p=0.01) than AITD patients with single islet AAbs but normal glucose metabolism. T1D was found in 3.7% of AITD patients compared to 0.2% of the age-matched, general Croatian population. Islet AAbs were found in 5/20 family members of AITD patients with islet autoimmunity, among whom two developed T1D. None of the controls was positive for more than one islet AAb or developed T1D.

Conclusion

Children/adolescents with AITD, particularly females and patients with AT, appear to represent a risk group for islet autoimmunity and T1D, as do family members of AITD patients with positive islet AAbs. However, these findings should be validated in larger studies.

Screening and Prevention of Type 1 Diabetes: Where Are We?

A diagnosis of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and the subsequent requirement for exogenous insulin treatment is associated with considerable acute and chronic morbidity and a substantial effect on patient quality of life. Importantly, a large body of work suggests that early identification of presymptomatic T1D can accurately predict clinical disease, and when paired with education and monitoring, can yield improved health outcomes. Furthermore, a growing cadre of effective disease-modifying therapies provides the potential to alter the natural history of early stages of T1D. In this mini review, we highlight prior work that has led to the current landscape of T1D screening and prevention, as well as challenges and next steps moving into the future of these rapidly evolving areas of patient care.

Predicting Immunological Risk for Stage 1 and Stage 2 Diabetes Using a 1-Week CGM Home Test, Nocturnal Glucose Increments, and Standardized Liquid Mixed Meal Breakfasts, with Classification Enhanced by Machine Learning

Background: Predicting the risk for type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a significant challenge. We use a 1-week continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) home test to characterize differences in glycemia in at-risk healthy individuals based on autoantibody presence and develop a machine-learning technology for CGM-based islet autoantibody classification. Methods: Sixty healthy relatives of people with T1D with mean ± standard deviation age of 23.7 ± 10.7 years, HbA1c of 5.3% ± 0.3%, and body mass index of 23.8 ± 5.6 kg/m2 with zero (n = 21), one (n = 18), and ≥2 (n = 21) autoantibodies were enrolled in an National Institutes of Health TrialNet ancillary study. Participants wore a CGM for a week and consumed three standardized liquid mixed meals (SLMM) instead of three breakfasts. Glycemic outcomes were computed from weekly, overnight (12:00-06:00), and post-SLMM CGM traces, compared across groups, and used in four supervised machine-learning autoantibody status classifiers. Classifiers were evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC-ROC) to select the best classification model. Results: Among all computed glycemia metrics, only three were different across the autoantibodies groups: percent time >180 mg/dL (T180) weekly (P = 0.04), overnight CGM incremental AUC (P = 0.005), and T180 for 75 min post-SLMM CGM traces (P = 0.004). Once overnight and post-SLMM features are incorporated in machine-learning classifiers, a linear support vector machine model achieved the best performance of classifying autoantibody positive versus autoantibody negative participants with AUC-ROC ≥0.81. Conclusion: A new technology combining machine learning with a potentially self-administered 1-week CGM home test can help improve T1D risk detection without the need to visit a hospital or use a medical laboratory. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov registration no. NCT02663661.

Children diagnosed with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes through public health screening have milder diabetes at clinical manifestation

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We aimed to determine whether disease severity was reduced at onset of clinical (stage 3) type 1 diabetes in children previously diagnosed with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes in a population-based screening programme for islet autoantibodies.

METHODS

Clinical data obtained at diagnosis of stage 3 type 1 diabetes were evaluated in 128 children previously diagnosed with presymptomatic early-stage type 1 diabetes between 2015 and 2022 in the Fr1da study and compared with data from 736 children diagnosed with incident type 1 diabetes between 2009 and 2018 at a similar age in the DiMelli study without prior screening.

RESULTS

At the diagnosis of stage 3 type 1 diabetes, children with a prior early-stage diagnosis had lower median HbA1c (51 mmol/mol vs 91 mmol/mol [6.8% vs 10.5%], p<0.001), lower median fasting glucose (5.3 mmol/l vs 7.2 mmol/l, p<0.05) and higher median fasting C-peptide (0.21 nmol/l vs 0.10 nmol/l, p<0.001) compared with children without previous early-stage diagnosis. Fewer participants with prior early-stage diagnosis had ketonuria (22.2% vs 78.4%, p<0.001) or required insulin treatment (72.3% vs 98.1%, p<0.05) and only 2.5% presented with diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis of stage 3 type 1 diabetes. Outcomes in children with a prior early-stage diagnosis were not associated with a family history of type 1 diabetes or diagnosis during the COVID-19 pandemic. A milder clinical presentation was observed in children who participated in education and monitoring after early-stage diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Diagnosis of presymptomatic type 1 diabetes in children followed by education and monitoring improved clinical presentation at the onset of stage 3 type 1 diabetes.

Type 1 diabetes

Type 1 diabetes is a chronic disease caused by autoimmune destruction of pancreatic β cells. Individuals with type 1 diabetes are reliant on insulin for survival. Despite enhanced knowledge related to the pathophysiology of the disease, including interactions between genetic, immune, and environmental contributions, and major strides in treatment and management, disease burden remains high. Studies aimed at blocking the immune attack on β cells in people at risk or individuals with very early onset type 1 diabetes show promise in preserving endogenous insulin production. This Seminar will review the field of type 1 diabetes, highlighting recent progress within the past 5 years, challenges to clinical care, and future directions in research, including strategies to prevent, manage, and cure the disease.

Precision Medicine in Type 1 Diabetes

Type 1 diabetes is a complex, chronic disease in which the insulin-producing beta cells in the pancreas are sufficiently altered or impaired to result in requirement of exogenous insulin for survival. The development of type 1 diabetes is thought to be an autoimmune process, in which an environmental (unknown) trigger initiates a T cell-mediated immune response in genetically susceptible individuals. The presence of islet autoantibodies in the blood are signs of type 1 diabetes development, and risk of progressing to clinical type 1 diabetes is correlated with the presence of multiple islet autoantibodies. Currently, a "staging" model of type 1 diabetes proposes discrete components consisting of normal blood glucose but at least two islet autoantibodies (Stage 1), abnormal blood glucose with at least two islet autoantibodies (Stage 2), and clinical diagnosis (Stage 3). While these stages may, in fact, not be discrete and vary by individual, the format suggests important applications of precision medicine to diagnosis, prevention, prognosis, treatment and monitoring. In this paper, applications of precision medicine in type 1 diabetes are discussed, with both opportunities and barriers to global implementation highlighted. Several groups have implemented components of precision medicine, yet the integration of the necessary steps to achieve both short- and long-term solutions will need to involve researchers, patients, families, and healthcare providers to fully impact and reduce the burden of type 1 diabetes.

Risk Modeling to Reduce Monitoring of an Autoantibody-Positive Population to Prevent DKA at Type 1 Diabetes Diagnosis

CONTEXT

The presence of islet autoimmunity identifies individuals likely to progress to clinical type 1 diabetes (T1D). In clinical research studies, autoantibody screening followed by regular metabolic monitoring every 6 months reduces incidence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE

We hypothesized that DKA reduction can be achieved on a population basis with a reduced frequency of metabolic monitoring visits. We reasoned that prolonged time between the development of T1D and the time of clinical diagnosis ("undiagnosed time") would more commonly result in DKA and thus that limiting undiagnosed time would decrease DKA.

METHODS

An analysis was conducted of data from TrialNet's Pathway to Prevention (PTP), a cross-sectional longitudinal study that identifies and follows at-risk relatives of people with T1D. PTP is a population-based study enrolling across multiple countries. A total of 6193 autoantibody (AAB)-positive individuals participated in PTP from March 2004 to April 2019. We developed models of progression to clinical diagnosis for pediatric and adult populations with single or multiple AAB, and summarized results using estimated hazard rate. An optimal monitoring visit schedule was determined for each model to achieve a minimum average level of undiagnosed time for each population.

RESULTS

Halving the number of monitoring visits usually conducted in research studies is likely to substantially lower the population incidence of DKA at diagnosis of T1D.

CONCLUSION

Our study has clinical implications for the metabolic monitoring of at-risk individuals. Fewer monitoring visits would reduce the clinical burden, suggesting a path toward transitioning monitoring beyond the research setting.

Barriers to Screening: An Analysis of Factors Impacting Screening for Type 1 Diabetes Prevention Trials

Context

Participants with stage 1 or 2 type 1 diabetes (T1D) qualify for prevention trials, but factors involved in screening for such trials are largely unknown.

Objective

To identify factors associated with screening for T1D prevention trials.

Methods

This study included TrialNet Pathway to Prevention participants who were eligible for a prevention trial: oral insulin (TN-07, TN-20), teplizumab (TN-10), abatacept (TN-18), and oral hydroxychloroquine (TN-22). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine participant, site, and study factors at the time of prevention trial accrual.

Results

Screening rates for trials were: 50% for TN-07 (584 screened/1172 eligible), 9% for TN-10 (106/1249), 24% for TN-18 (313/1285), 17% for TN-20 (113/667), and 28% for TN-22 (371/1336). Younger age and male sex were associated with higher screening rates for prevention trials overall and for oral therapies. Participants with an offspring with T1D showed lower rates of screening for all trials and oral drug trials compared with participants with other first-degree relatives as probands. Site factors, including larger monitoring volume and US site vs international site, were associated with higher prevention trial screening rates.

Conclusions

Clear differences exist between participants who screen for prevention trials and those who do not screen and between the research sites involved in prevention trial screening. Participant age, sex, and relationship to proband are significantly associated with prevention trial screening in addition to key site factors. Identifying these factors can facilitate strategic recruitment planning to support rapid and successful enrollment into prevention trials.

Factors Associated With Diabetic Ketoacidosis at Onset of Type 1 Diabetes Among Pediatric Patients: A Systematic Review

IMPORTANCE

Presenting with diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at onset of type 1 diabetes (T1D) remains a risk. Following a 2011 systematic review, considerable additional articles have been published, and the review required updating.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate factors associated with DKA at the onset of T1D among pediatric patients.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

In this systematic review, PubMed, Embase, Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science, and article reference lists were searched using the population, intervention, comparison, outcome search strategy for primary research studies on DKA and T1D onset among individuals younger than 18 years that were published from January 2011 to November 2021. These studies were combined with a 2011 systematic review on the same topic. Data were pooled using a random-effects model.

FINDINGS

A total of 2565 articles were identified; 149 were included, along with 46 from the previous review (total 195 articles). Thirty-eight factors were identified and examined for their association with DKA at T1D onset. Factors associated with increased risk of DKA were younger age at T1D onset (<2 years vs ≥2 years; odds ratio [OR], 3.51; 95% CI, 2.85-4.32; P < .001), belonging to an ethnic minority population (OR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.21-0.74; P = .004), and family history of T1D (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.37-0.57; P < .001), consistent with the 2011 systematic review. Some factors that were not associated with DKA in the 2011 systematic review were associated with DKA in the present review (eg, delayed diagnosis: OR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.72-3.01; P < .001). Additional factors associated with risk of DKA among patients with new-onset T1D included participation in screening programs (OR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.21-0.59; P < .001) and presentation during the COVID-19 pandemic (OR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.76-3.06; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, age younger than 2 years at T1D onset, belonging to an ethnic minority population, delayed diagnosis or misdiagnosis, and presenting during the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with increased risk of DKA. Factors associated with decreased risk of DKA included greater knowledge of key signs or symptoms of DKA, such as a family history of T1D or participation in screening programs. Future work should focus on identifying and implementing strategies related to these factors to reduce risk of DKA among new patients with T1D.

Decreased occurrence of ketoacidosis and preservation of beta cell function in relatives screened and monitored for type 1 diabetes in Australia and New Zealand

AIMS

Islet autoantibody screening of infants and young children in the Northern Hemisphere, together with semi-annual metabolic monitoring, is associated with a lower risk of ketoacidosis (DKA) and improved glucose control after diagnosis of clinical (stage 3) type 1 diabetes (T1D). We aimed to determine if similar benefits applied to older Australians and New Zealanders monitored less rigorously.

METHODS

DKA occurrence and metabolic control were compared between T1D relatives screened and monitored for T1D and unscreened individuals diagnosed in the general population, ascertained from the Australasian Diabetes Data Network.

RESULTS

Between 2005 and 2019, 17,105 relatives (mean (SD) age 15.7 (10.8) years; 52% female) were screened for autoantibodies against insulin, glutamic acid decarboxylase, and insulinoma-associated protein 2. Of these, 652 screened positive to a single and 306 to multiple autoantibody specificities, of whom 201 and 215, respectively, underwent metabolic monitoring. Of 178 relatives diagnosed with stage 3 T1D, 9 (5%) had DKA, 7 of whom had not undertaken metabolic monitoring. The frequency of DKA in the general population was 31%. After correction for age, sex and T1D family history, the frequency of DKA in screened relatives was >80% lower than in the general population. HbA1c and insulin requirements following diagnosis were also lower in screened relatives, consistent with greater beta cell reserve.

CONCLUSIONS

T1D autoantibody screening and metabolic monitoring of older children and young adults in Australia and New Zealand, by enabling pre-clinical diagnosis when beta cell reserve is greater, confers protection from DKA. These clinical benefits support ongoing efforts to increase screening activity in the region and should facilitate the application of emerging immunotherapies.

Rising Hemoglobin A1c in the Nondiabetic Range Predicts Progression of Type 1 Diabetes As Well As Oral Glucose Tolerance Tests

OBJECTIVE

Biomarkers predicting risk of type 1 diabetes (stage 3) among children with islet autoantibodies are greatly needed to prevent diabetic ketoacidosis and facilitate prevention therapies.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Children in the prospective The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study (n = 707) with confirmed diabetes-associated autoantibodies (GAD antibody, IA-2A, and/or insulin autoantibody) and two or more HbA1c measurements were followed to diabetes or median age 11.1 years. Once confirmed autoantibody positive, HbA1c was measured quarterly. Cox models and receiver operative characteristic curve analyses revealed the prognostic utility for risk of stage 3 on a relative HbA1c increase from the baseline visit or an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) 2-h plasma glucose (2-hPG). This HbA1c approach was then validated in the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study (TrialNet) (n = 1,190).

RESULTS

A 10% relative HbA1c increase from baseline best marked the increased risk of stage 3 in TEDDY (74% sensitive; 88% specific). Significant predictors of risk for HbA1c change were age and HbA1c at the baseline test, genetic sex, maximum number of autoantibodies, and maximum rate of HbA1c increase by time of change. The multivariable model featuring a HbA1c ≥10% increase and these additional factors revealed increased risk of stage 3 in TEDDY (hazard ratio [HR] 12.74, 95% CI 8.7-18.6, P < 0.0001) and TrialNet (HR 5.09, 95% CI 3.3-7.9, P < 0.0001). Furthermore, the composite model using HbA1c ≥10% increase performed similarly to an OGTT 2-hPG composite model (TEDDY area under the curve [AUC] 0.88 and 0.85, respectively) and to the HbA1c model in TrialNet (AUC 0.82).

CONCLUSIONS

An increase of ≥10% in HbA1c from baseline is as informative as OGTT 2-hPG in predicting risk of stage 3 in youth with genetic risk and diabetes-associated autoantibodies.

General population screening for childhood type 1 diabetes: is it time for a UK strategy?

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a chronic autoimmune disease of childhood affecting 1:500 children aged under 15 years, with around 25% presenting with life-threatening diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA). While first-degree relatives have the highest risk of T1D, more than 85% of children who develop T1D do not have a family history. Despite public health awareness campaigns, DKA rates have not fallen over the last decade. T1D has a long prodrome, and it is now possible to identify children who go on to develop T1D with a high degree of certainty. The reasons for identifying children presymptomatically include prevention of DKA and related morbidities and mortality, reducing the need for hospitalisation, time to provide emotional support and education to ensure a smooth transition to insulin treatment, and opportunities for new treatments to prevent or delay progression. Research studies of population-based screening strategies include using islet autoantibodies alone or in combination with genetic risk factors, both of which can be measured from a capillary sample. If found during screening, the presence of two or more islet autoantibodies has a high positive predictive value for future T1D in childhood (under 18 years), offering an opportunity for DKA prevention. However, a single time-point test will not identify all children who go on to develop T1D, and so combining with genetic risk factors for T1D may be an alternative approach. Here we discuss the pros and cons of T1D screening in the UK, the different strategies available, the knowledge gaps and why a T1D screening strategy is needed.

Epidemiology of Type 1 Diabetes

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Epidemiological research on type 1 diabetes (T1D) has traditionally focussed on the paediatric age group, but recent data in adults has confirmed it to be a disease of all ages with a wide clinical spectrum. We review the epidemiology and clinical features of T1D across the lifespan.

RECENT FINDINGS

While the peak incidence of T1D is still in early adolescence, T1D is now diagnosed more commonly in adulthood than childhood due to increasing recognition of adult-onset T1D and the length of the adult lifespan. It still follows the known geographic variations in incidence, being highest in Northern Europe and lowest in Asia. The onset of T1D in adulthood is usually less acute than in childhood and confers a lower, although still substantial, risk of complications and early mortality. Interventions to delay T1D onset are emerging and screening for those at risk at birth is increasingly available. Type 1 diabetes can develop at any age and may not present with ketosis or an immediate insulin requirement in adults. Macro- and microvascular complications are the greatest cause of excess morbidity and mortality in this population.

Familial autoimmunity in pediatric patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and its associations with the severity of clinical presentation at diabetes diagnosis and with coexisting autoimmunity

PURPOSE

The aim was to evaluate the impact of familial autoimmunity on the age and severity of type 1 diabetes (T1D) presentation and on the coexistence of other autoimmune diseases.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated the medical records of 121 children/adolescents (male: 63) followed in our Diabetic Clinic from 2002 to 2016.

RESULTS

Seventy-six patients (62.8%) had at least one relative with an autoimmune disease, Hashimoto's thyroiditis (49.5%) and T1D (22.3%) being the commonest. Children with familial autoimmunity were younger at T1D diagnosis (mean age ± SD) (6.766 ± 3.75). Median fasting c-peptide levels at presentation were not related to familial autoimmunity. Patients with familial autoimmunity more often exhibited GADA autoantibody positivity at diagnosis. The larger the number of the patient's relatives diagnosed with an autoimmune disease, the higher were the patient's GADA levels (Spearman's rho test = 0.19, p = 0.049). Children with a first-degree relative with autoimmunity had a coexisting autoimmune disorder at a significantly higher percentage (p = 0.016). Family history of autoimmunity was negatively associated with the presence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) (p = 0.024). Patients with a relative with T1D less frequently exhibited DKA at diagnosis (12.8 vs. 87.2%, p = 0.003). The presence of DKA was associated with younger age (p = 0.05) and lower c-peptide levels (p = 0.033).

CONCLUSIONS

Familial autoimmunity was present in 62.8% of children with T1D, autoimmune thyroiditis and T1D being the two most frequent familial autoimmune diseases. Familial autoimmunity reduced the risk of DKA at diagnosis, but these patients were younger and had higher levels of pancreatic autoantibodies and a greater risk of developing additional autoimmune diseases.

Moderate and severe diabetic ketoacidosis at type 1 diabetes onset in children over two decades: A population-based study of prevalence and long-term glycemic outcomes

OBJECTIVE

To investigate in a population-based pediatric cohort: prevalence of moderate-severe diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at type 1 diabetes (T1D) diagnosis over two decades and its association with long-term glycemic control.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Children <16 years diagnosed with T1D in Western Australia 2000-2019 were included and followed up for ≤14 years. Moderate-severe DKA at diagnosis was defined as serum pH < 7.2 or bicarbonate<10 mmol/L with hyperglycemia and ketosis. HbA1c was measured ~3-monthly. Trend in prevalence of moderate-severe DKA at diagnosis was investigated using a logistic regression model adjusting for sex, age, socioeconomic status, and area of residence. Long-term glycemic control associated with DKA at diagnosis was investigated using linear mixed models adjusting for the same variables and also for visit frequency, CGM and pump use.

RESULTS

Moderate-severe DKA occurred in 534 of 2111 (25.3%) participants. Odds of presenting with moderate-severe DKA increased by 4.1% (95% CI: 2.3, 5.9; p < 0.001) per year. Patients with moderate-severe DKA at diagnosis had higher HbA1c levels than other patients initially; the groups were similar between 2 and 6 years duration; from 7 years HbA1c levels tracked higher in the group with moderate-severe DKA at diagnosis with significant differences at 8 and 12 years (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The increasing prevalence of DKA at diagnosis of pediatric T1D is concerning and highlights the need for early detection programs. Unlike a similar US study, this study did not find a consistent, clinically significant relationship between DKA at diagnosis and long-term HbA1c, raising important questions about the influence of other factors on long-term glycemic outcomes.

Selecting an intervention to prevent ketoacidosis at diabetes diagnosis in children using a behavior change framework

OBJECTIVE

The rate of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), a preventable, life-threatening complication of diabetes, at the time of diagnosis in children remains unacceptably high worldwide. We describe our initial approach to selecting a national DKA prevention strategy, to be implemented by the Canadian Pediatric Endocrine Group DKA Prevention Working Group, informed by a framework for behavior change interventions.

METHODS

Existing interventions were identified from a systematic review and our own gray literature search. We then characterized interventions using the Behavior Change Wheel, a framework to inform and drive behavior change, and matched interventions to behavioral targets, audiences, and identified barriers and facilitators. Feedback from the CPEG DKA prevention working group was incorporated into the intervention plan.

RESULTS

We identified 27 interventions. Our proposed target behaviors are: (1) prompt recognition of symptoms of diabetes in children; (2) urgent attendance to medical care with a request for an office-based test for diabetes; and (3) rapid confirmation of diagnosis and urgent consultation with pediatric diabetes experts. We initially identified four possible intervention functions including education, training, environment restructuring, and enablement. Feedback from the working group favored education intervention functions including symptom recognition messages targeting parents, caregivers, teachers, and providers and messages about how to make a rapid diagnosis and need for urgent referral targeting providers.

CONCLUSIONS

The Behavior Change Wheel has been used successfully in selecting interventions in other clinical areas. We describe how we used this framework to provide a foundation for developing an intervention to prevent DKA at diabetes diagnosis in children.

Costs of Public Health Screening of Children for Presymptomatic Type 1 Diabetes in Bavaria, Germany

OBJECTIVE

We sought to evaluate costs associated with public health screening for presymptomatic type 1 diabetes in 90,632 children as part of the Fr1da study in Bavaria and in forecasts for standard care.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We report on resource use and direct costs for screening-related procedures in the Fr1da study coordination center and laboratory and in participating pediatric practices and local diabetes clinics. Data were obtained from Fr1da study documents, an online survey among pediatricians, and interviews and records of Fr1da staff members. Data were analyzed with tree models that mimic procedures during the screening process. Cost estimates are presented as they were observed in the Fr1da study and as they can be expected in standard care for various scenarios.

RESULTS

The costs per child screened in the Fr1da study were €28.17 (95% CI 19.96; 39.63) and the costs per child diagnosed with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes were €9,117 (6,460; 12,827). Assuming a prevalence of presymptomatic type 1 diabetes of 0.31%, as in the Fr1da study, the estimated costs in standard care in Germany would be €21.73 (16.76; 28.19) per screened child and €7,035 (5,426; 9,124) per diagnosed child. Of the projected screening costs, €12.25 would be the costs in the medical practice, €9.34 for coordination and laboratory, and €0.14 for local diabetes clinics.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides information for the planning and implementation of screening tests for presymptomatic type 1 diabetes in the general public and for the analysis of the cost-effectiveness of targeted prevention strategies.

Heterogeneity of DKA Incidence and Age-Specific Clinical Characteristics in Children Diagnosed With Type 1 Diabetes in the TEDDY Study

OBJECTIVE

The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study is uniquely capable of investigating age-specific differences associated with type 1 diabetes. Because age is a primary driver of heterogeneity in type 1 diabetes, we sought to characterize by age metabolic derangements prior to diagnosis and clinical features associated with diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The 379 TEDDY children who developed type 1 diabetes were grouped by age at onset (0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years; n = 142, 151, and 86, respectively) with comparisons of autoantibody profiles, HLAs, family history of diabetes, presence of DKA, symptomatology at onset, and adherence to TEDDY protocol. Time-varying analysis compared those with oral glucose tolerance test data with TEDDY children who did not progress to diabetes.

RESULTS

Increasing fasting glucose (hazard ratio [HR] 1.09 [95% CI 1.04-1.14]; P = 0.0003), stimulated glucose (HR 1.50 [1.42-1.59]; P < 0.0001), fasting insulin (HR 0.89 [0.83-0.95]; P = 0.0009), and glucose-to-insulin ratio (HR 1.29 [1.16-1.43]; P < 0.0001) were associated with risk of progression to type 1 diabetes. Younger children had fewer autoantibodies with more symptoms at diagnosis. Twenty-three children (6.1%) had DKA at onset, only 1 (0.97%) of 103 with and 22 (8.0%) of 276 children without a first-degree relative (FDR) with type 1 diabetes (P = 0.008). Children with DKA were more likely to be nonadherent to study protocol (P = 0.047), with longer duration between their last TEDDY evaluation and diagnosis (median 10.2 vs. 2.0 months without DKA; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

DKA at onset in TEDDY is uncommon, especially for FDRs. For those without familial risk, metabolic monitoring continues to provide a primary benefit of reduced DKA but requires regular follow-up. Clinical and laboratory features vary by age at onset, adding to the heterogeneity of type 1 diabetes.

The Prevalence of Islet Autoantibodies in Children and Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: A Global Scoping Review

Background and Purpose

Pancreatic islet autoantibodies (iAb) are the hallmark of autoimmunity in type 1 diabetes. A more comprehensive understanding of the global iAb prevalence could help reduce avertible morbidity and mortality among children and adolescents and contribute to the understanding in the observed differences in the incidence, prevalence and health outcomes of children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes across and within countries. We present the first scoping review that provides a global synthesis of the prevalence of iAb in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

Research Design and Methods

We searched Ovid MEDLINE® with Daily Update, Embase (Elsevier, embase.com) and PubMed (National Library of Medicine -NCBI), for studies pertaining to prevalence in children and adolescents (0-19) with type 1 diabetes published between 1 Jan 1990 and 18 June 2021. Results were synthesized using Covidence systematic review software and meta-analysis was completed using R v3·6·1. Two reviewers independently screened abstracts with a third reviewer resolving conflicts (k= 0·92).

Results

The review revealed 125 studies from 48 different countries, with 92 from high-income countries. Globally, in new-onset type 1 diabetes, IA-2A was the most prevalent iAb 0·714 [95% CI (0·71, 0·72)], followed by ICA 0·681 [95% CI (0·67, 0·69)], ZnT8A was 0·654 [95% CI (0·64, 0·66)], GADA 0·636 [95% CI (0·63, 0·66)] and then IAA 0·424 [95% CI (0·42, 0·43)], with substantial variation across world regions. The weighted mean prevalence of IA-2A was more variable, highest in Europe at 0·749 [95% CI (0·74, 0·76)] followed by Northern America 0·662 [95% CI (0·64, 0·69)], Latin America and the Caribbean 0·632 [95% CI (0·54, 0·72)], Oceania 0·603 [95% CI (0·54, 0·67)], Asia 0·466 [95% CI (0·44, 0·50)] and Africa 0·311 [95% CI (0·23, 0·40)]. In established cases of type 1 diabetes, GADA was the most prevalent iAb 0·407 [95% CI (0·39, 0·42)] followed by ZnT8A 0·322 [95% CI (0·29, 0·36)], IA-2A 0·302 [95% CI (0·29, 0·32)], IAA 0·258 [95% CI (0·24, 0·26)] and ICA 0·145 [95% CI (0·13, 0·16)], again with substantial variation across world regions.

Conclusion

Understanding the global prevalence of iAb in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes could help with earlier identification of those at-risk of developing type 1 diabetes and inform clinical practice, health policies, resource allocation, and targeted healthcare interventions to better screen, diagnose and manage children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

Hospitalizations for ketoacidosis in type 1 diabetes mellitus, 2008 to 2018

The objective of this study was to characterize epidemiological trends, outcomes in hospitalized patients, and the disease burden of hospitalizations for diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). This was a retrospective interrupted trends study involving hospitalizations for DKA in patients with T1DM in the US from 2008 to 2018 using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. The total number of hospitalizations during each calendar year was obtained, and trends in inpatient mortality rate, mean length of hospital stay (LOS), and mean total hospital cost (THC) were calculated. Between 2008 and 2018, there was a trend toward increasing hospitalizations for T1DM with DKA (P-trend <0.001). Over the decade, there was a steady rise in the proportion of patients with a Charlson comorbidity index >1. There was no statistically significant change in adjusted inpatient mortality in patients with T1DM admitted for DKA over the study period despite an apparent trend of a decreasing crude mortality rate (P-trend = 0.063). There was a statistically significant decrease in both LOS and THC over the study period. In conclusion, there was a significant decrease in both LOS and THC, potentially reflecting improvements in the management of DKA in patients with T1DM.

Incidence of Diabetic Ketoacidosis Among Pediatrics With Type 1 Diabetes Prior to and During COVID-19 Pandemic: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

BACKGROUND

Previous reports suggest that the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic might have affected incidences of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and new diagnoses of type 1 diabetes. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the risk of DKA, including severe DKA, during the COVID-19 pandemic versus the prior-to-COVID-19 period among pediatric patients with type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

PubMed and EMBASE were searched for observational studies investigating the risk of DKA among pediatric patients with type 1 diabetes during the COVID-19 pandemic and the prior-to-COVID-19 period. A random meta-analysis model was performed to estimate the relative risk of DKA during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to before the pandemic. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on the type 1 diabetes status, established or newly diagnosed. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted for studies that reported results from adjusted analysis for potential confounders using fixed effect model.

RESULTS

A total of 20 observational studies reported the risk of DKA, of which 18 reported the risk of severe DKA. The risks of DKA and severe DKA were 35% (RR 1.35, 95%CI 1.2-1.53, I² = 71%) and 76% (RR 1.76, 95%CI 1.33-2.33, I^{2 =} 44%) higher in the during-COVID-19 group compared to the prior-to-COVID-19 group, respectively. Among patients with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes, the risk of DKA was 44% higher for the during-COVID-19 group compared to the prior-to-COVID-19 group (RR 1.44, 95%CI 1.26-1.65; I² = 64%). Only two studies reported the risk of DKA among patients with established type 1 diabetes and the cumulative risk was not statistically significant. In the sensitivity analysis, four studies reported an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of the risk of DKA during COVID-19 compared to the prior-to-COVID-19 period. The fixed estimate from the meta-analysis found an increase in the risk of DKA in the during-COVID-19 group compared to the prior-to-COVID-19 group (aOR 2.04, 95%CI 1.66-2.50).

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that DKA risk, especially the risk of severe DKA, has increased significantly during the pandemic. Healthcare systems must be aware and prepared for such an increase in DKA cases and take all necessary measures to prevent future spikes during the pandemic.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=272775, identifier PROSPERO [CRD42021272775].

Immunotherapy for type 1 diabetes

INTRODUCTION

Despite advances in technology including the development of more sophisticated methods of monitoring blood glucose and delivering insulin, many individuals with type 1 diabetes continue to experience significant challenges in optimizing glycaemic control. Alternative treatment approaches to insulin are required. Increasing efforts have focused on developing treatments aimed at targeting the underlying disease process to modulate the immune system, maximize beta cell function and enhance endogenous insulin production and action.

SOURCES OF DATA

Literature searches with keywords 'Type 1 diabetes and immunotherapy', publications relating to clinical trials of immunotherapy in type 1 diabetes.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

Insulin therapy is insufficient to achieve optimal glycaemic control in many individuals with type 1 diabetes, and new treatment approaches are required. Studies have showed promising results for the use of immunotherapy as a means of delaying disease onset and progression.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

The optimal way of identifying individuals most likely to benefit from immunotherapies.

GROWING POINTS

A better understanding of the natural history of type 1 diabetes has made it possible to identify individuals who have developed autoimmunity but have not yet progressed to clinical diabetes, offering opportunities not only to develop treatments that delay disease progression, but prevent its development in the first place. A consensus on how to identify individuals who may benefit from immunotherapy to prevent disease onset is needed.

AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH

The development of optimal strategies for preventing and delaying progression of type 1 diabetes, and monitoring the response to immunointervention.

Preventing type 1 diabetes in childhood

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is an autoimmune disease in which the insulin-producing β cells of the pancreas are destroyed by T lymphocytes. Recent studies have demonstrated that monitoring for pancreatic islet autoantibodies, combined with genetic risk assessment, can identify most children who will develop T1D when they still have sufficient β cell function to control glucose concentrations without the need for insulin. In addition, there has been recent success in secondary prevention using immunotherapy to delay the progression of preclinical disease, and primary prevention approaches to inhibiting the initiating autoimmune process have entered large-scale clinical trials. By changing the focus of T1D management from late diagnosis and insulin replacement to early diagnosis and β cell preservation, we can anticipate a future without the need for daily insulin injections for children with T1D.

Increase in Prevalence of Diabetic Ketoacidosis at Diagnosis Among Youth With Type 1 Diabetes: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study

OBJECTIVE

We previously reported a high (˜30%) but stable prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at youth-onset diagnosis of type 1 diabetes (2002 and 2010). Given the changing demographics of youth-onset type 1 diabetes, we sought to evaluate temporal trends in the prevalence of DKA at diagnosis of type 1 diabetes from 2010 to 2016 among youth <20 years of age and evaluate whether any change observed was associated with changes in sociodemographic distribution of those recently diagnosed.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We calculated prevalence of DKA within 1 month of type 1 diabetes diagnosis by year and evaluated trends over time (2010-2016) (n = 7,612 incident diabetes cases; mean [SD] age 10.1 [4.5] at diagnosis). To assess whether trends observed were attributable to the changing distribution of sociodemographic factors among youth with incident type 1 diabetes, we estimated an adjusted relative risk (RR) of DKA in relation to calendar year, adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, income, education, health insurance status, language, season of diagnosis, and SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study site.

RESULTS

DKA prevalence increased from 35.3% (95% CI 32.2, 38.4) in 2010 to 40.6% (95% CI 37.8, 43.4) in 2016 (P _trend = 0.01). Adjustment for sociodemographic factors did not substantively change the observed trends. We observed a 2% annual increase in prevalence of DKA at or near diagnosis of type 1 diabetes (crude RR 1.02 [95% CI 1.01, 1.04] and adjusted RR 1.02 [95% CI 1.01, 1.04]; P = 0.01 for both).

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalence of DKA at or near type 1 diabetes diagnosis has increased from 2010 to 2016, following the high but stable prevalence observed from 2002 to 2010. This increase does not seem to be attributable to the changes in distribution of sociodemographic factors over time.