Pandemic influenza planning, United States, 1978-2008

Americans' Trust in COVID-19 Information from Governmental Sources in the Trump Era: Individuals' Adoption of Preventive Measures, and Health Implications

This study analyzes differences among Americans in their trust in COVID-19 information from governmental sources and how trust is associated with personal adoption of preventative measures under the Trump administration. Based on our analysis of data from a nationally representative survey conducted in October 2020 (effective sample size after weighting = 2615), we find that Americans in general have more trust in COVID-19 information from state/local governments than from the federal government. Variables such as age, party affiliation, religiosity, and race are significantly associated with Americans' trust or lack of trust in COVID-19 information from governmental sources. During the study period, Republicans had more trust in the federal government as a COVID-19 information source than Democrats did, while Democrats had more trust in state/local governments. African Americans had the least trust in the federal and state/local governments as COVID-19 information sources, while Asian Americans had the most trust in both institutions. Trust in the state/local governments as COVID-19 information sources was positively associated with physical distancing and mask-wearing while trust in the federal government as a COVID-19 information source was negatively associated with physical distancing and mask-wearing, suggesting the distinctive roles that state/local governments and the federal government played in mobilizing Americans to adopt preventive measures.

Impact of adjuvant: Trivalent vaccine with quadrivalent-like protection against heterologous Yamagata-lineage influenza B virus

As new vaccine technologies and platforms, such as nanoparticles and novel adjuvants, are developed to aid in the establishment of a universal influenza vaccine, studying traditional influenza split/subunit vaccines should not be overlooked. Commercially available vaccines are typically studied in terms of influenza A H1 and H3 viruses but influenza B viruses need to be examined as well. Thus, there is a need to both understand the limitations of split/subunit vaccines and develop strategies to overcome those limitations, particularly their ability to elicit cross-reactive antibodies to the co-circulating Victoria (B-V) and Yamagata (B-Y) lineages of human influenza B viruses. In this study, we compared three commercial influenza hemagglutinin (HA) split/subunit vaccines, one quadrivalent (H1, H3, B-V, B-Y HAs) and two trivalent (H1, H3, B-V HAs), to characterize potential differences in their antibody responses and protection against a B-Y challenge. We found that the trivalent adjuvanted vaccine Fluad, formulated without B-Y HA, was able to produce antibodies to B-Y (cross-lineage) on a similar level to those elicited from a quadrivalent vaccine (Flucelvax) containing both B-V and B-Y HAs. Interestingly, Fluad protected mice from a lethal cross-lineage B-Y viral challenge, while another trivalent vaccine, Fluzone HD, failed to elicit antibodies or full protection following challenge. Fluad immunization also diminished viral burden in the lungs compared to Fluzone and saline groups. The success of a trivalent vaccine to provide protection from a cross-lineage influenza B challenge, similar to a quadrivalent vaccine, suggests that further analysis of different split/subunit vaccine formulations could identify mechanisms for vaccines to target antigenically different viruses. Understanding how to increase the breadth of the immune response following immunization will be needed for universal influenza vaccine development.

Ethical allocation of COVID-19 vaccine in the United States: an evaluation of competing frameworks for the current pandemic and future events

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, created the need for an effective vaccine. Questions arose about allocating the initial limited supplies in the United States. We present four allocation models and compare their characteristics for ethically meeting the health needs of the population. The literature shares broad agreement on guiding ethical principles with those of the four proposed models for vaccine allocation, featuring the concepts of utilitarianism, prioritarianism, equity, and reciprocity. We conclude that the "Interim Framework for COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation and Distribution in the United States" from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health is the most comprehensive and ethically sound. We recommend government officials and policymakers at all levels consider the principles and objectives in this model as US COVID-19 vaccination distribution efforts continue. This model may serve as an effective framework for initial vaccine distribution efforts during future epidemic and pandemic events.

Framework for creating an incident command center during crises

The Hospital Incident Command System (HICS) is an incident management system specific to hospitals based on the principles of Incident Command System (ICS), and it includes prevention, protection, mitigation, response, and recovery. It plays a crucial role in effective and timely response during the periods of disasters, mass casualties, and public health emergencies. In recent times, hospitals have used a customized HICS structure to coordinate effective responses to public health problems such as the Ebola outbreak in the US and SARS epidemic in Taiwan.

The current COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented challenges on the healthcare system, necessitating the creation of HICS that can help in the proper allocation of resources and ineffective utilization of healthcare personnel. The key elements in managing a response to this pandemic include screening and early diagnosis, quarantining affected individuals, monitoring disease progression, delivering appropriate treatment, and ensuring an adequate supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) to healthcare staff.

COVID-19 Policy Response and the Rise of the Sub-National Governments

We examine the roles of sub-national and national governments in Canada and the United States vis-à-vis the protective public health response in the onset phase of the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This period was characterized in both countries by incomplete information as well as by uncertainty regarding which level of government should be responsible for which policies. The crisis represents an opportunity to study how national and sub-national governments respond to such policy challenges. In this article, we present a unique dataset that catalogues the policy responses of US states and Canadian provinces as well as those of the respective federal governments: the Protective Policy Index (PPI). We then compare the United States and Canada along several dimensions, including the absolute values of sub-national levels of the index relative to the total protections enjoyed by citizens, the relationship between early threat (as measured by the mortality rate near the start of the public health crisis) and the evolution of the PPI, and finally the institutional and legislative origins of the protective health policies. We find that the sub-national contribution to policy is more important for both the United States and Canada than are their national-level policies, and it is unrelated in scope to our early threat measure. We also show that the institutional origin of the policies as evidenced by the COVID-19 response differs greatly between the two countries and has implications for the evolution of federalism in each.

Measuring the resilience of criminogenic ecosystems to global disruption: A case-study of COVID-19 in China

This paper uses resilience as a lens through which to analyse disasters and other major threats to patterns of criminal behaviour. A set of indicators and mathematical models are introduced that aim to quantitatively describe changes in crime levels in comparison to what could otherwise be expected, and what might be expected by way of adaptation and subsequent resumption of those patterns. The validity of the proposed resilience assessment tool is demonstrated using commercial theft data from the COVID-19 pandemic period. A 64 per cent reduction in crime was found in the studied city (China) during an 83-day period, before daily crime levels bounced back to higher than expected values. The proposed resilience indicators are recommended as benchmarking instruments for evaluating and comparing the global impact of COVID-19 policies on crime and public safety.

Measuring the resilience of criminogenic ecosystems to global disruption: A case-study of COVID-19 in China

This paper uses resilience as a lens through which to analyse disasters and other major threats to patterns of criminal behaviour. A set of indicators and mathematical models are introduced that aim to quantitatively describe changes in crime levels in comparison to what could otherwise be expected, and what might be expected by way of adaptation and subsequent resumption of those patterns. The validity of the proposed resilience assessment tool is demonstrated using commercial theft data from the COVID-19 pandemic period. A 64 per cent reduction in crime was found in the studied city (China) during an 83-day period, before daily crime levels bounced back to higher than expected values. The proposed resilience indicators are recommended as benchmarking instruments for evaluating and comparing the global impact of COVID-19 policies on crime and public safety.

Preparedness, Adaptation, and Innovation: Approach to the COVID-19 Pandemic at a Decentralized, Quaternary Care Department of Emergency Medicine

The COVID-19 pandemic has required healthcare systems to be creative and adaptable in response to an unprecedented crisis. Below we describe how we prepared for and adapted to this pandemic at our decentralized, quaternary-care department of emergency medicine, with specific recommendations from our experience. We discuss our longstanding history of institutional preparedness, as well as adaptations in triage, staffing, workflow, and communications. We also discuss innovation through working with industry on solutions in personal protective equipment, as well as telemedicine and methods for improving morale. These preparedness and response solutions and recommendations may be useful moving forward as we transition between response and recovery in this pandemic as well as future pandemics.

Association of Public Interest in Preventive Measures and Increased COVID-19 Cases After the Expiration of Stay-at-Home Orders: A Cross-Sectional Study

Objective:

Following stay-at-home (SAH) orders issued for coronavirus disease (COVID-19), state-level economic concerns increased and many let these orders expire. As a method to measure public preparedness, we sought to explore the association between public interest in preventive measures and the easing of SAH orders – specifically the increases in COVID-19 cases and fatalities after the orders expired.

Methods:

Search volume was collected from Google Trends for “hand sanitizer,” “social distancing,” “COVID testing,” and “contact tracing” for each state. Bivariate correlations were computed to analyze associations between public interest in preventive measures, changes in confirmed COVID-19 cases after SAH expirations, COVID-19 case-fatality rates, and by-state presidential voting percentages.

Results:

A higher interest in preventive measures was associated with lower rates of confirmed cases after SAH orders had expired (r = −0.33), higher state-wide deaths per capita (r = 0.42), and case-fatality rates (r = 0.60). Moderate to strong negative correlations were found between states’ percentage of voters supporting the Republican nominee in 2016 and proportion of queries for average preventive measures (r = −0.77).

Conclusion:

Our investigation shows that increased public interest in COVID-19 prevention was associated with longer SAH orders and less COVID-19 cases after the SAH orders’ expiration; however, it was also associated with higher case-fatality rates.

Public Interest in Preventive Measures of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Associated With Timely Issuance of Statewide Stay-at-Home Orders

Introduction:

One method of monitoring public preparedness is through measuring public interest in preventive measures. The objective of this study was to analyze public interest in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) preventive measures and to identify variables associated with timely stay-at-home (SAH) orders issued by governors.

Methods:

State-level search volume was collected from Google Trends. Average preventive measure interest was calculated for the query terms “hand sanitizer,” “hand washing,” “social distancing,” and “COVID testing.” We then calculated the delay in statewide SAH orders from March 1, 2020, to the date of issuance and by-state presidential voting percentage. Bivariate correlations were computed to assess the relationship between interest in preventive measures and SAH order delay.

Results:

The correlation between average preventive measure interest and length of time before the SAH order was placed was −0.47. Average preventive measure interest was also inversely related to voting for a Republican presidential nominee in the 2016 election (R = −0.75), the latter of which was positively associated with longer delays in SAH orders (R = 0.48).

Conclusions:

States with greater public interest in COVID-19 preventive measures were inversely related to governor issuance of timely SAH orders. Increasing public interest in preventive measures may slow the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), by improving preparedness.

A comprehensive hospital agile preparedness (CHAPs) tool for pandemic preparedness, based on the COVID-19 experience

COVID-19 presents an unprecedented challenge to hospitals and the systems in which they operate. The primary exponential surge of COVID-19 cases is arguably the most devastating event a hospital will face. In some countries, these surges during the initial outbreak of the disease have resulted in hospitals suffering from significant resource strain, leading to excess patient mortality and negatively impacting staff wellbeing. As experience builds in managing these surges, it has become evident that agile, tailored planning tools are required. The comprehensive hospital agile preparedness (CHAPs) tool provides clinical planners with six key domains to consider that frequently create resource strain during COVID-19; it also allows local planners to identify issues unique to their hospital, system or region. Although this tool has been developed from COVID-19 experiences, it has potential to be modified for a variety of pandemic scenarios according to transmission modes, rates and critical care resource requirements.

Animal models for the risk assessment of viral pandemic potential

Pandemics affect human lives severely and globally. Experience predicts that there will be a pandemic for sure although the time is unknown. When a viral epidemic breaks out, assessing its pandemic risk is an important part of the process that characterizes genomic property, viral pathogenicity, transmission in animal model, and so forth. In this review, we intend to figure out how a pandemic may occur by looking into the past influenza pandemic events. We discuss interpretations of the experimental evidences resulted from animal model studies and extend implications of viral pandemic potentials and ingredients to emerging viral epidemics. Focusing on the pandemic potential of viral infectious diseases, we suggest what should be assessed to prevent global catastrophes from influenza virus, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, dengue and Zika viruses.

Influence of Community and Culture in the Ethical Allocation of Scarce Medical Resources in a Pandemic Situation: Deliberative Democracy Study

BACKGROUND

Stark gaps exist between projected health needs in a pandemic situation and the current capacity of health care and medical countermeasure systems. Existing pandemic ethics discussions have advocated to engage the public in scarcity dilemmas and attend the local contexts and cultural perspectives that shape responses to a global health threat. This public engagement study thus considers the role of community and culture in the ethical apportionment of scarce health resources, specifically ventilators, during an influenza pandemic. It builds upon a previous exploration of the values and preferences of Maryland residents regarding how a finite supply of mechanical ventilators ought to be allocated during a severe global outbreak of influenza. An important finding of this earlier research was that local history and place within the state engendered different ways of thinking about scarcity.

OBJECTIVE

Given the intrastate variation in the themes expressed by Maryland participants, the project team sought to examine interstate differences by implementing the same protocol elsewhere to answer the following questions. Does variation in ethical frames of reference exist within different regions of the United States? What practical implications does evidence of sameness and difference possess for pandemic planners and policymakers at local and national levels?

METHODS

Research using the same deliberative democracy process from the Maryland study was conducted in Central Texas in March 2018 among 30 diverse participants, half of whom identified as Hispanic or Latino. Deliberative democracy provides a moderated process through which community members can learn facts about a public policy matter from experts and explore their own and others' views.

RESULTS

Participants proposed that by evenly distributing supplies of ventilators and applying clear eligibility criteria consistently, health authorities could enable fair allocation of scarce lifesaving equipment. The strong identification, attachment, and obligation of persons toward their nuclear and extended families emerged as a distinctive regional and ethnic core value that has practical implications for the substance, administration, and communication of allocation frameworks.

CONCLUSIONS

Maryland and Central Texas residents expressed a common, overriding concern about the fairness of allocation decisions. Central Texas deliberants, however, more readily expounded upon family as a central consideration. In Central Texas, family is a principal, culturally inflected lens through which life and death matters are often viewed. Conveners of other pandemic-related public engagement exercises in the United States have advocated the benefits of transparency and inclusivity in developing an ethical allocation framework; this study demonstrates cultural competence as a further advantage.

Preparing intensive care for the next pandemic influenza

Few viruses have shaped the course of human history more than influenza viruses. A century since the 1918-1919 Spanish influenza pandemic-the largest and deadliest influenza pandemic in recorded history-we have learned much about pandemic influenza and the origins of antigenic drift among influenza A viruses. Despite this knowledge, we remain largely underprepared for when the next major pandemic occurs.While emergency departments are likely to care for the first cases of pandemic influenza, intensive care units (ICUs) will certainly see the sickest and will likely have the most complex issues regarding resource allocation. Intensivists must therefore be prepared for the next pandemic influenza virus. Preparation requires multiple steps, including careful surveillance for new pandemics, a scalable response system to respond to surge capacity, vaccine production mechanisms, coordinated communication strategies, and stream-lined research plans for timely initiation during a pandemic. Conservative models of a large-scale influenza pandemic predict more than 170% utilization of ICU-level resources. When faced with pandemic influenza, ICUs must have a strategy for resource allocation as strain increases on the system.There are several current threats, including avian influenza A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) viruses. As humans continue to live in closer proximity to each other, travel more extensively, and interact with greater numbers of birds and livestock, the risk of emergence of the next pandemic influenza virus mounts. Now is the time to prepare and coordinate local, national, and global efforts.

Immunogenicity of Influenza Vaccines: Evidence for Differential Effect of Secondary Vaccination on Humoral and Cellular Immunity

While currently used influenza vaccines are designed to induce neutralizing antibodies, little is known on T cell responses induced by these vaccines. The 2009 pandemic provided us with the opportunity to evaluate the immune response to vaccination in a unique setting. We evaluated both antibody and T cell responses in a cohort of public health care workers (18–52 years) during two consecutive influenza seasons from 2009 to 2011 and compared the MF59-adjuvanted pandemic vaccine with the unadjuvanted seasonal subunit vaccine that included the pandemic strain [The study was registered in the Netherlands Trial Register (NTR2070)]. Antibody responses were determined in serum by a hemagglutination inhibition assay. Vaccine-specific T cell responses were evaluated by detecting IFN-γ producing peripheral blood mononuclear cells using whole influenza virus or vaccine-specific peptide pools as stimulating antigens. Mixed effects regression models were used to correct the data for influenza-specific pre-existing immunity due to previous infections or vaccinations and for age and sex. We show that one dose of the pandemic vaccine induced antibody responses sufficient for providing seroprotection and that the vaccine induced T cell responses. A second dose further increased antibody responses but not T cell responses. Nonetheless, both could be boosted by the seasonal vaccine in the subsequent season. Furthermore, we show that the seasonal vaccine alone is capable of inducing vaccine-specific T cell responses, despite the fact that the vaccine did not contain an adjuvant. In addition, residual antibody levels remained detectable for over 15 months, while T cell levels in the blood had contracted to baseline levels by that time. Hereby, we show that pandemic as well as seasonal vaccines induce both humoral and cellular responses, however, with a different profile of induction and waning, which has its implications for future vaccine design.

Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza.

METHODS

We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza.

FINDINGS

Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99 000-200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16·4 deaths per 100 000 [95% UI 11·6-21·9]), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5·2 per 100 000 population [95% UI 3·5-7·2]). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95% UI 3 709 000-22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000-259 851 000). We estimated that 11·5% (95% UI 10·0-12·9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000-73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000-13 296 000).

INTERPRETATION

This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A review of documents prepared by international organizations about influenza pandemics, including the 2009 pandemic: a bibliometric analysis

Background

World Health Organization (WHO), the World Bank, UN System Influenza Coordination (UNSIC) and other international organizations released a series of documents to fight against the influenza pandemic. Those documents have great significance on guiding influenza pandemic preparedness and responses and providing a multilevel, multi-directional influenza pandemic prevention and control network for their member countries. This study focuses on the above-mentioned influenza pandemic preparedness guidelines with the aim of exploring the roles of the society, defining the relationship of different interventions and evaluating the planning on influenza pandemic preparedness.

Methods

Documents about pandemic influenza preparedness were retrieved from the official websites of the following three international organizations, World Health Organization (WHO), the World Bank, UN System Influenza Coordination (UNSIC) with the key words ‘pandemic’, ‘influenza’ and the Boolean combinations of these words as the retrieval strategy. Guidelines, research study and meeting reports were included in the study. The categories of the ministries/departments involved and their roles/responsibilities in pandemic influenza preparedness were summarized. Word frequency of selected vocabularies about pandemic influenza preventive measures were collected from the documents and the correlations between the word frequency of these measures were analyzed. Ochiai coefficient was employed to show the correlation between the word vocabularies.

Results

A total of 38 records on the topic of pandemic influenza preparedness were included. The responsibilities of the whole-of-society mentioned in the international organizations’ documents varied across the 2009 influenza pandemic period. Meanwhile, it had been emphasized that a comprehensive influenza prevention and control plan in every sector should be developed and evaluated. Because various measures were emphasized in the guidelines after 2009 pandemic influenza, the correlations between the word frequencies of the various influenza preventive measures became stronger after the pandemic influenza.

Conclusions

Responsibilities of ministries of education, ministries of energy, ministries of agriculture and animal health, ministries of communication and the business sector in the pandemic influenza preparedness were described more comprehensively in the international organizations’ documents in 2017. Better understanding the variations of the guidelines delivered by international organizations would be useful for the member countries to strengthen their influenza control network.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3286-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Readiness to Vaccinate Critical Personnel During an Influenza Pandemic, United States, 2015

OBJECTIVES

To assess the readiness to vaccinate critical infrastructure personnel (CIP) involved in managing public works, emergency services, transportation, or any other system or asset that would have an immediate debilitating impact on the community if not maintained.

METHODS

We analyzed self-reported planning to vaccinate CIP during an influenza pandemic with data from 2 surveys: (1) the Program Annual Progress Assessment of immunization programs and (2) the Pandemic Influenza Readiness Assessment of public health emergency preparedness programs. Both surveys were conducted in 2015.

RESULTS

Twenty-six (43.3%) of 60 responding public health emergency preparedness programs reported having an operational plan to identify and vaccinate CIP, and 16 (26.2%) of 61 responding immunization programs reported knowing the number of CIP in their program's jurisdictions.

CONCLUSIONS

Many programs may not be ready to identify and vaccinate CIP during an influenza pandemic. Additional efforts are needed to ensure operational readiness to vaccinate CIP during the next influenza pandemic.

Prevalence of Respiratory Protective Devices in U.S. Health Care Facilities: Implications for Emergency Preparedness

An online questionnaire was developed to explore respiratory protective device (RPD) prevalence in U.S. health care facilities. The survey was distributed to professional nursing society members in 2014 and again in 2015 receiving 322 and 232 participant responses, respectively. The purpose of this study was to explore if the emergency preparedness climate associated with Ebola virus disease changed the landscape of RPD use and awareness. Comparing response percentages from the two sampling time frames using bivariate analysis, no significant changes were found in types of RPDs used in health care settings. N95 filtering facepiece respirators continue to be the most prevalent RPD used in health care facilities, but powered air-purifying respirators are also popular, with regional use highest in the West and Midwest. Understanding RPD use prevalence could ensure that health care workers receive appropriate device trainings as well as improve supply matching for emergency RPD stockpiling.

Chemical Modification of Influenza CD8+ T-Cell Epitopes Enhances Their Immunogenicity Regardless of Immunodominance

T cells are essential players in the defense against infection. By targeting the MHC class I antigen-presenting pathway with peptide-based vaccines, antigen-specific T cells can be induced. However, low immunogenicity of peptides poses a challenge. Here, we set out to increase immunogenicity of influenza-specific CD8+ T cell epitopes. By substituting amino acids in wild type sequences with non-proteogenic amino acids, affinity for MHC can be increased, which may ultimately enhance cytotoxic CD8+ T cell responses. Since preventive vaccines against viruses should induce a broad immune response, we used this method to optimize influenza-specific epitopes of varying dominance. For this purpose, HLA-A*0201 epitopes GILGFVFTL, FMYSDFHFI and NMLSTVLGV were selected in order of decreasing MHC-affinity and dominance. For all epitopes, we designed chemically enhanced altered peptide ligands (CPLs) that exhibited greater binding affinity than their WT counterparts; even binding scores of the high affinity GILGFVFTL epitope could be improved. When HLA-A*0201 transgenic mice were vaccinated with selected CPLs, at least 2 out of 4 CPLs of each epitope showed an increase in IFN-γ responses of splenocytes. Moreover, modification of the low affinity epitope NMLSTVLGV led to an increase in the number of mice that responded. By optimizing three additional influenza epitopes specific for HLA-A*0301, we show that this strategy can be extended to other alleles. Thus, enhancing binding affinity of peptides provides a valuable tool to improve the immunogenicity and range of preventive T cell-targeted peptide vaccines.

Emerging infectious diseases: Focus on infection control issues for novel coronaviruses (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-CoV and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-CoV), hemorrhagic fever viruses (Lassa and Ebola), and highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, A(H5N1) and A(H7N9)

Over the past several decades, we have witnessed the emergence of many new infectious agents, some of which are major public threats. New and emerging infectious diseases which are both transmissible from patient-to-patient and virulent with a high mortality include novel coronaviruses (SARS-CoV, MERS-CV), hemorrhagic fever viruses (Lassa, Ebola), and highly pathogenic avian influenza A viruses, A(H5N1) and A(H7N9). All healthcare facilities need to have policies and plans in place for early identification of patients with a highly communicable diseases which are highly virulent, ability to immediately isolate such patients, and provide proper management (e.g., training and availability of personal protective equipment) to prevent transmission to healthcare personnel, other patients and visitors to the healthcare facility.

The Impact of Population, Contact, and Spatial Heterogeneity on Epidemic Model Predictions

Our objective was to evaluate the effect that complexity in the form of different levels of spatial, population, and contact heterogeneity has in the predictions of a mechanistic epidemic model. A model that simulates the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases between animal populations was developed. Sixteen scenarios of foot-and-mouth disease infection in cattle were analyzed, involving combinations of the following factors: multiple production-types (PT) with heterogeneous contact and population structure versus single PT, random versus actual spatial distribution of population units, high versus low infectivity, and no vaccination versus preemptive vaccination. The epidemic size and duration was larger for scenarios with multiple PT versus single PT. Ignoring the actual unit locations did not affect the epidemic size in scenarios with multiple PT/high infectivity, but resulted in smaller epidemic sizes in scenarios using multiple PT/low infectivity. In conclusion, when modeling fast-spreading epidemics, knowing the actual locations of population units may not be as relevant as collecting information on population and contact heterogeneity. In contrast, both population and spatial heterogeneity might be important to model slower spreading epidemic diseases. Our findings can be used to inform data collection and modeling efforts to inform health policy and planning.

CHILDHOOD RESPIRATORY MORBIDITY AND COOKING PRACTICES AMONG HOUSEHOLDS IN A PREDOMINANTLY RURAL AREA OF GHANA

Background:

Household air pollution is a leading risk factor for respiratory morbidity and mortality in developing countries where biomass fuel is mainly used for cooking.

Materials and Method:

A household cross-sectional survey was conducted in a predominantly rural area of Ghana in 2007 to determine the prevalence of respiratory symptoms and their associated risk factors. Household cooking practices were also assessed as part of the survey.

Results:

Household heads of twelve thousand, three hundred and thirty-three households were interviewed. Fifty-seven percent (7006/12333) of these households had at least one child less than five years of age. The prevalence of symptoms of acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) was 13.7% (n= 957, 95% CI 12.8 – 15.5%). A majority (77.8%, 95% CI, 77.7 - 78.5%) of households used wood as their primary fuel. Majority of respondents who used wood as their primary fuel obtained them by gathering wood from their neighborhood (95.6%, 9177/9595) and used a 3-stone local stove for cooking (94.9%, 9101/9595). In a randomly selected subset of respondents, females were the persons who mostly gathered firewood from the fields (90.8%, 296/326) and did the cooking (94.8%, 384/406) for the household.

Conclusion:

Symptoms of ALRI reported by caregivers is high in the Kintampo area of Ghana where biomass fuel use is also high. There is the need to initiate interventions that use improved cook stoves and to test the health benefits of such interventions.

Infection Prevention in the Hospital from Past to Present: Evolving Roles and Shifting Priorities

Hospital epidemiologists are vital components of integrated health centers. This central place in the healthcare landscape has rapidly evolved over a half century. Early hospital epidemiologists possessed a visionary focus on patient safety many decades prior to the quality revolution of the 1990s. A systematic and scientific approach to infection prevention has facilitated the evolution of hospital epidemiology, along with advances in technology, and increasing public attention to infectious complications in the hospital. Currently, the growing expansion of tasks and moving regulatory targets strain existing resources. These challenges threaten to limit the effectiveness of some infection-prevention activities, while also providing important opportunities for improving care. It will be increasingly important to advocate for appropriate resources to address a diverse set of changing infection prevention priorities.

Sialylated immunoglobulin G can neutralize influenza virus infection through receptor mimicry

Influenza viruses possess a great threat to human health, but there is still no effective drug to deal with the outbreak of possible new influenza subtypes. In this study, we first fractionated sialylated immunoglobulin G (IgG), mainly Fab sialylated fraction, with sambucus nigra agglutinin affinity chromatography. We then demonstrated that sialylated IgG possessed more effective neutralizing activity against 2009 A (H1N1) subtype than that of IgG mixture, and sialosides on the Fab is crucial in this neutralization reaction as when such residues were removed with neuraminidase A digestion the blocking effect was significantly reduced. It appears that sialic acid residues attached to Fab could serve as binding moieties to receptor binding site of influenza virus. These findings indicate that sialylated IgG probably is an effective anti-influenza broad-spectrum drug utilizing its receptor mimicry to competitively inhibit the attachment of influenza viruses with sialic acid receptors on target cells. This property would be particularly useful if it can be applied to prevent newly emerged influenza virus strain infections in future epidemics.

Comparison of age-specific hospitalization during pandemic and seasonal influenza periods from 2009 to 2012 in Taiwan: a nationwide population-based study

Background

Determining the age-specific hospitalization burden associated with seasonal influenza and the (H1N1) 2009 pandemic is important for the development of effective vaccine strategies and clinical management. The aim of this study was to investigate age-specific differences in hospitalization rates during the pandemic and seasonal periods.

Methods

Using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), we identified hospitalized patients with a principle discharge diagnosis of influenza-related infection (ICD-9-CM 487) between 2009 and 2012.

Results

Based on the time distribution of influenza-related hospitalizations and previously reported epidemic periods, the first and second waves of the (H1N1) 2009 pandemic (p1 is known as 2009.07-2010.01, and p2 is known as 2010.12-2011.03) and three seasonal periods (s1 is known as 2010.03-2010.11, s2 is known as 2011.10-2012.03, and s3 is known as 2012.04-2012.10) were found. During these five periods, children younger than 7 years of age consistently had the highest hospitalization rate of the studied age groups. In individuals younger than 50 years of age, the seasonal periods were associated with a significantly lower risk of hospitalization than that of p1 (Relative risk (RR) range = 0.18–0.85); however, they had a significantly higher hospitalization risk for adults over 50 years of age (RR = 1.51–3.22). Individuals over 50 years of age also had a higher intensive care unit admission rate and case fatality ratio than individuals under than 50 years of age during the seasonal periods and especially during the pandemic periods.

Conclusions

In both pandemic and seasonal periods, the highest hospitalization rate was observed for children younger than 7 years of age. Adults over 50 years of age had a higher hospitalization risk during the seasonal periods and a higher clinical severity during the pandemic periods. Those results emphasize that the importance of influenza-related prevention strategies in the younger and older age groups, either seasonal or pandemic periods.

Development of Framework for Assessing Influenza Virus Pandemic Risk

This simple, additive, multiattribute assessment tool can evaluate the risk posed by novel influenza A viruses.

Although predicting which influenza virus subtype will cause the next pandemic is not yet possible, public health authorities must continually assess the pandemic risk associated with animal influenza viruses, particularly those that have caused infections in humans, and determine what resources should be dedicated to mitigating that risk. To accomplish this goal, a risk assessment framework was created in collaboration with an international group of influenza experts. Compared with the previously used approach, this framework, named the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool, provides a systematic and transparent approach for assessing and comparing threats posed primarily by avian and swine influenza viruses. This tool will be useful to the international influenza community and will remain flexible and responsive to changing information.

Estimating the United States demand for influenza antivirals and the effect on severe influenza disease during a potential pandemic

Following the detection of a novel influenza strain A(H7N9), we modeled the use of antiviral treatment in the United States to mitigate severe disease across a range of hypothetical pandemic scenarios. Our outcomes were total demand for antiviral (neuraminidase inhibitor) treatment and the number of hospitalizations and deaths averted. The model included estimates of attack rate, healthcare-seeking behavior, prescription rates, adherence, disease severity, and the potential effect of antivirals on the risks of hospitalization and death. Based on these inputs, the total antiviral regimens estimated to be available in the United States (as of April 2013) were sufficient to meet treatment needs for the scenarios considered. However, distribution logistics were not examined and should be addressed in future work. Treatment was estimated to avert many severe outcomes (5200-248,000 deaths; 4800-504,000 hospitalizations); however, large numbers remained (25,000-425,000 deaths; 580,000-3,700,000 hospitalizations), suggesting that the impact of combinations of interventions should be examined.

Super short membrane-active lipopeptides inhibiting the entry of influenza A virus

Influenza A viruses (IAV) are significant pathogens that result in millions of human infections and impose a substantial health and economic burdens worldwide. Due to the limited anti-influenza A therapeutics available and the emergence of drug resistant viral strains, it is imperative to develop potent anti-IAV agents with different mode of action. In this study, by applying a pseudovirus based screening approach, two super short membrane-active lipopeptides of C12-KKWK and C12-OOWO were identified as effective anti-IAV agents with IC50 value of 7.30±1.57 and 8.48±0.74 mg/L against A/Puerto Rico/8/34 strain, and 6.14±1.45 and 7.22±0.67 mg/L against A/Aichi/2/68 strain, respectively. The mechanism study indicated that the anti-IAV activity of these peptides would result from the inhibition of virus entry by interacting with HA2 subunit of hemagglutinin (HA). Thus, these peptides may have potentials as lead peptides for the development of new anti-IAV therapeutics to block the entry of virus into host cells.

Ethics for pandemics beyond influenza: Ebola, drug-resistant tuberculosis, and anticipating future ethical challenges in pandemic preparedness and response

The unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa has raised several novel ethical issues for global outbreak preparedness. It has also illustrated that familiar ethical issues in infectious disease management endure despite considerable efforts to understand and mitigate such issues in the wake of past outbreaks. To improve future global outbreak preparedness and response, we must examine these shortcomings and reflect upon the current state of ethical preparedness. To this end, we focus our efforts in this article on the examination of one substantial area: ethical guidance in pandemic plans. We argue that, due in part to their focus on considerations arising specifically in relation to pandemics of influenza origin, pandemic plans and their existing ethical guidance are ill-equipped to anticipate and facilitate the navigation of unique ethical challenges that may arise in other infectious disease pandemics. We proceed by outlining three reasons why this is so, and situate our analysis in the context of the EVD outbreak and the threat posed by drug-resistant tuberculosis: (1) different infectious diseases have distinct characteristics that challenge anticipated or existing modes of pandemic prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, (2) clear, transparent, context-specific ethical reasoning and justification within current influenza pandemic plans are lacking, and (3) current plans neglect the context of how other significant pandemics may manifest. We conclude the article with several options for reflecting upon and ultimately addressing ethical issues that may emerge with different infectious disease pandemics.

Responding to vaccine safety signals during pandemic influenza: a modeling study

Background

Managing emerging vaccine safety signals during an influenza pandemic is challenging. Federal regulators must balance vaccine risks against benefits while maintaining public confidence in the public health system.

Methods

We developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model to explore regulatory decision-making in the context of emerging vaccine safety signals during a pandemic. We simulated vaccine safety surveillance system capabilities and used an age-structured compartmental model to develop potential pandemic scenarios. We used an expert-derived multi-attribute utility function to evaluate potential regulatory responses by combining four outcome measures into a single measure of interest: 1) expected vaccination benefit from averted influenza; 2) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated febrile seizures; 3) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated Guillain-Barre Syndrome; and 4) expected change in vaccine-seeking behavior in future influenza seasons.

Results

Over multiple scenarios, risk communication, with or without suspension of vaccination of high-risk persons, were the consistently preferred regulatory responses over no action or general suspension when safety signals were detected during a pandemic influenza. On average, the expert panel valued near-term vaccine-related outcomes relative to long-term projected outcomes by 3∶1. However, when decision-makers had minimal ability to influence near-term outcomes, the response was selected primarily by projected impacts on future vaccine-seeking behavior.

Conclusions

The selected regulatory response depends on how quickly a vaccine safety signal is identified relative to the peak of the pandemic and the initiation of vaccination. Our analysis suggested two areas for future investment: efforts to improve the size and timeliness of the surveillance system and behavioral research to understand changes in vaccine-seeking behavior.

Pandemic influenza plans in residential care facilities

OBJECTIVES

To identify characteristics of residential care facilities (RCFs) associated with having a pandemic influenza plan.

DESIGN

Nationally representative, cross-sectional survey.

SETTING

RCFs in the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Participating facilities in the 2010 National Survey of RCFs (N = 2,294), representing 31,030 assisted living facilities and personal care homes.

MEASUREMENTS

Facility-level characteristics associated with a pandemic influenza plan, including general organization descriptors, staffing, resident services, and immunization practices.

RESULTS

Forty-five percent (95% confidence interval (CI) = 43-47%) had a pandemic plan, 14% (95% CI = 13-16%) had a plan in preparation, and 41% (95% CI = 38-43%) had no plan. In the multivariable model, organization characteristics, staffing, and immunization practices were independently associated with the presence of a pandemic preparedness plan. Organization characteristics were larger size (extra large, OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.96-5.46; large, OR = 2.60, 95% CI = 1.81-3.75; medium, OR = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.21-2.27 vs small), not-for-profit status (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.31-2.09 vs for profit), and chain affiliation (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.31-2.09 vs nonaffiliated). Staffing characteristics included number of registered nurse hours (<15 minutes, OR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.07-1.74 vs no hours), any licensed practical nurse hours (OR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.08-1.99 vs no hours), and at least 75 hours of required training for aides (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.05-1.71 vs <75 hours). RCFs with high staff influenza vaccination rates (81-100%, OR = 2.12, 95% CI = 1.27-3.53 vs 0% vaccinated) were also more likely to have a pandemic plan.

CONCLUSION

A majority of RCFs lacked a pandemic influenza plan. These facilities were smaller, for-profit, non-chain-affiliated RCFs and had lower staff vaccination rates. These characteristics may help target facilities that need to develop plans to handle a pandemic, or other disasters.

Ethical alternatives to experiments with novel potential pandemic pathogens

Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary