Burden of Disease Methods: A Guide to Calculate COVID-19 Disability-Adjusted Life Years

Incidence of low birth weight among newborns delivered in health facilities in the Volta Region, 2019-2023

INTRODUCTION

Low birth weight (LBW) is a significant determinant of newborn survival, child health and development. There is limited information on the burden and geographical distribution of neonates with LBW in the Volta Region of Ghana. We determined the incidence and distribution of LBW in the region from 2019 to 2023.

METHOD

A review of institutional birth weights in the Volta Region from 2019 to 2023 was performed using data extracted from the District Health Information Management System. The variables extracted were live births, birth weight, parity of mother, district and year. We performed descriptive statistics and presented the results in a table, graph and map.

RESULTS

A total of 190,385 live births were recorded, with 15,960 LBW neonates, 8.4% [95% CI: 8.3-8.5]. The trend of LBWs ranged from 8.5% in 2019 to 8.2% in 2023, with the highest value of 8.8% in 2022. The majority of LBWs were recorded among multiparous mothers (59.8%, 95% CI: 59.1-60.6%). LBW cases were recorded across all districts in the region with the highest rate, 12.0% in Ho, and South Dayi Districts and the lowest rate, 2.0% in Afadzato South District.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of LBW in the Volta region from 2019 to 2023 was 8.4%, with notable variations across districts. The highest rates were observed in Ho and South Dayi, whereas Afadzato South recorded the lowest rates. These findings provide a basis for further studies to reduce the incidence of LBW in the Volta Region of Ghana.

Cost-effectiveness of wastewater-based environmental surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Blantyre, Malawi and Kathmandu, Nepal: A model-based study

Wastewater-based environmental surveillance (ES) has been demonstrated to provide an early warning signal to predict variant-driven waves of pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Our study evaluated the potential cost-effectiveness of ES for SARS-CoV-2 compared with clinical testing alone. We used the Covasim agent-based model of COVID-19 to simulate disease transmission for hypothetical populations in Blantyre, Malawi, and Kathmandu, Nepal. We simulated the introduction of a new immune-escaping variant over 6 months and estimated health outcomes (cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and economic impact when using ES to trigger a moderate proactive behavioral intervention (e.g., increased use of masks, social distancing) by policymakers versus no ES and hence a delayed reactive intervention. Costs considered included for ES, clinical testing, treatment, and productivity loss for the entire population due to implementation of the behavioral intervention. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and compared these with local willingness-to-pay thresholds: $61 for Malawi and $249 for Nepal. We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the impact of key assumptions on the results. Costs are reported in 2022 US dollars. We estimate that if ES were implemented, approximately 600 DALYs would be averted in Blantyre and approximately 300 DALYs averted in Kathmandu, over the six-month period. Considering health system costs, ES was cost-effective in Blantyre and cost-saving in Kathmandu. Cost-effectiveness of ES was highest in settings with low clinical surveillance, high disease severity, and high intervention effectiveness. However, from the societal perspective, ES may not be cost-effective depending on the magnitude of population-wide productivity losses associated with the proactive behavioral intervention and the cost-effectiveness threshold. SARS-CoV-2 ES has the potential to be a cost-saving or cost-effective tool from the health system perspective when linked to an effective public health response. From the societal perspective, however, the length of the behavioral intervention and its consequences for productivity losses of the entire population may make ES not cost-effective. Implementing ES for multiple pathogens may improve its cost-effectiveness.

The impact of COVID-19: consequences of a 3-Year struggle in Iran

BACKGROUND

The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) approach gives policymakers a clear understanding of the scale of the health issue. This study aimed to estimate DALYs attributed to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) for the population of Bushehr province and, by extension, the Iranian population during the first three years of the pandemic.

METHOD

This retrospective study was performed to estimate the DALY of COVID-19 in Iran and Bushehr province from 2021 to 2023. The concentration index and Gini coefficient were used to measure Covid-related deaths among the counties of Bushehr provinces according to the availability of hospital beds. A one-way sensitivity analysis was also performed to account for data uncertainties.

RESULT

The study revealed that during the study period, there were 2,554 deaths due to COVID-19 in Bushehr province. The calculated DALYs for Bushehr province and Iran were 36,004 and 2,073,036, respectively. Among these DALYs, 99.25% were YLLs, while the remaining 0.75% were YLDs. In Bushehr province, the concentration index and calculated Gini coefficient for 2022 were 0.25 and 0.49, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The results revealed that the burden of COVID-19 in Iran was significantly high in 2021 and 2022. Implementing specific policies and strategies at the national level is imperative. These policies should prioritize the allocation of vital resources, improve disease surveillance systems, and optimize service delivery. Concurrently, at the provincial level, concerted efforts must be made to enhance inter-sectoral collaboration, promote health literacy, and effectively monitor processes.

Integrated ecological-health risk assessment of ofloxacin

Antibiotics are emerging contaminants of significant concern, while previous research has mostly focused on their ecological or health impacts in isolation. This limited systematic research on its overall risk and the uncertainty relating to the risk evaluation is also unclear. This study addressed this gap by examining both ecological or health impacts by integrating interspecies correlation models, species sensitivity distribution curves, and health risk evaluation. Then comprehensive risk of antibiotics was calculated using economic approaches. The Wenyu River basin in China and ofloxacin were chosen as the study area and target antibiotic, respectively. The results indicate that both the ecological and health risk quotients for ofloxacin were manageable, and the level of urbanization was found to correlate with increased antibiotic risk. The economic impact on population health was greater than on ecosystems. The presence of ofloxacin in the watershed still resulted in more than $200,000 in annual economic losses, affecting both human society and the ecosystem. The assessment process, including the evaluation object, extrapolated data, and fitted curves, contributed to uncertainty in the results. These findings provide valuable insights for addressing the challenges in assessing the risks of antibiotics, emphasizing the need for integrated assessment frameworks.

Disability-adjusted life years associated with COVID-19 in Brazil, 2020

BACKGROUND

We quantified the national- and state-level burden of COVID-19 in Brazil and its states during 2020 and contrasted it to the burden from other causes of disease and injury.

METHODS

We used national surveillance data on COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths between February/2020 to December/2020. We calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) based on the COVID-19 consensus model and methods developed by the European Burden of Disease Network, which includes mild to moderate, severe, and critical COVID-19 cases, long covid and deaths due to COVID-19. We used Brazil DALYs estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network to compare the COVID-19 burden to that from other causes of disease and injury.

RESULTS

COVID-19's led to 5,445,785 DALYs, or 2,603 DALYs/100,000, with > 99% of the burden caused by mortality. Males accounted for the largest fraction of DALYs (3,214,905 or 59%) and DALYs per 100,000 population (140,594 or 63%). Most populated states experienced the highest DALYs. However, the DALYs per 100,000 population were higher in the states of Rio de Janeiro (4,504 DALYs/100,000), Amapá (4,106 DALYs/100,000) and Roraima (3,981 DALYs/100,000). Assuming no major changes in disease burden from other causes of disease and injury from 2019 to 2020 in Brazil, COVID-19's burden would rank as the leading cause of disability in 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with studies with similar methodology, our findings showed that Brazil experienced the highest COVID-19 burden (per 100,000 population) in the world. COVID-19 severely impacted Brazil's populational health in 2020, highlighting the lack of effective mitigation efforts.

Investigation of the trends and associated factors of ovarian cancer in Indonesia: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 1990-2021

INTRODUCTION

Ovarian cancer is one of the most lethal gynecological cancers. Despite diagnosis and treatment advances, survival rates have not increased over the past 32 years. This study estimated and reported the global burden of ovarian cancer during the past 32 years to inform preventative and control strategies.

METHODS

We examined ovarian cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using age-standardized rates from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. high body mass index and occupational asbestos exposure were linked with death and DALYs. Data are presented as averages with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

RESULTS

Indonesia had 13 250 (8 574-21 565) ovarian cancer cases in 2021, with 5 296 (3 520-8958) deaths and 186 917 (121 866-309 820) DALYs. The burden increased by 233.53% for new cases, 221.95% for mortalities, and 206.65% for DALYs. The age-standardized rate also increased from 1990 to 2021. Ovarian cancer burden increased with age but declined in the 50+ year age group. According to the sociodemographic index, the gross domestic product per capita and number of obstetricians and oncologic gynecologists in provinces showed different trends.

CONCLUSIONS

Indonesian ovarian cancer rates are rising despite gynecologic oncologists in 24 of 34 provinces. These findings will help policymakers and healthcare providers identify ovarian cancer prevention and control gaps.

Burden of disease studies supporting policymaking in the European Union: a systematic review

Burden of disease (BoD) studies quantify the health impact of diseases and risk factors, which can support policymaking, particularly in the European Union (EU). This study aims to systematically analyse BoD studies, which address EU public policies to contribute to the understanding of its policy uptake. A systematic search of six electronic databases and two grey-literature registries was carried out for articles published between 1990 and 2023. The thematic area, type of legislation and the respective policymaking stage were extracted. A textual analysis of the discussion was conducted to assess the inclusion of specific EU policy implications. Overton was used to detect citations in policy documents. Out of the 2054 records screened, 83 were included. Most studies employed secondary data, with 37 utilizing GBD data. Disability-adjusted life year was present in most of the studies (n = 53). The most common type of the EU legislation mentioned was the directive (n = 47), and the most frequent topic was environment (n = 34). Policy implications for EU laws were discussed in most papers (n = 46, 55.4%), with only 8 conducting evaluation of EU policies. Forty-two articles have been cited at the EU-level, in a total of 86 EU policies. Despite increasing efforts in integrating EU legislation impact within BoD studies, these results denote a low consideration of the legal and policy changes. Greater efforts in directing research towards policy effectiveness evaluation might increase their uptake in EU policies.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of South Africa's COVID-19 vaccination programme

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 vaccines were rolled out in South Africa beginning in February 2021. In this study we retrospectively assessed the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination programme in its first two years of implementation.

METHOD

We modelled the costs, expressed in 2021 US$, and health outcomes of the COVID-19 vaccination programme compared to a no vaccination programme scenario. The study was conducted from a public payer's perspective over two time-horizons - nine months (February to November 2021) and twenty-four months (February 2021 to January 2023). Health outcomes were estimated from a disease transmission model parameterised with data on COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths and were converted to disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (DSA and PSA) were conducted to assess parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated at US$1600 per DALY averted during the first study time horizon. The corresponding ICER for the second study period was estimated at US$1300 per DALY averted. When 85% of all excess deaths during these periods were included in the analysis, ICERs in the first and second study periods were estimated at US$1070 and US$660 per DALY averted, respectively. In the PSA, almost 100% of simulations fell below the estimated opportunity cost-based cost-effectiveness threshold for South Africa (US$2300 DALYs averted). COVID-19 vaccination programme cost per dose had the greatest impact on the ICERs.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that South Africa's COVID-19 vaccination programme represented good value for money in the first two years of rollout.

The mortality burden related to COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 - years of life lost and excess mortality in 13 countries and sub-national regions in Southern and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia

Introduction

Between 2021 and 2023, a project was funded in order to explore the mortality burden (YLL-Years of Life Lost, excess mortality) of COVID-19 in Southern and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.

Methods

For each national or sub-national region, data on COVID-19 deaths and population data were collected for the period March 2020 to December 2021. Unstandardized and age-standardised YLL rates were calculated according to standard burden of disease methodology. In addition, all-cause mortality data for the period 2015-2019 were collected and used as a baseline to estimate excess mortality in each national or sub-national region in the years 2020 and 2021.

Results

On average, 15-30 years of life were lost per death in the various countries and regions. Generally, YLL rates per 100,000 were higher in countries and regions in Southern and Eastern Europe compared to Central Asia. However, there were differences in how countries and regions defined and counted COVID-19 deaths. In most countries and sub-national regions, YLL rates per 100,000 (both age-standardised and unstandardized) were higher in 2021 compared to 2020, and higher amongst men compared to women. Some countries showed high excess mortality rates, suggesting under-diagnosis or under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths, and/or relatively large numbers of deaths due to indirect effects of the pandemic.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that the COVID-19 mortality burden was greater in many countries and regions in Southern and Eastern Europe compared to Central Asia. However, heterogeneity in the data (differences in the definitions and counting of COVID-19 deaths) may have influenced our results. Understanding possible reasons for the differences was difficult, as many factors are likely to play a role (e.g., differences in the extent of public health and social measures to control the spread of COVID-19, differences in testing strategies and/or vaccination rates). Future cross-country analyses should try to develop structured approaches in an attempt to understand the relative importance of such factors. Furthermore, in order to improve the robustness and comparability of burden of disease indicators, efforts should be made to harmonise case definitions and reporting for COVID-19 deaths across countries.

Measuring disease burden of dominant variants of COVID-19 in Taiwan

Objectives

The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of COVID-19 have been applied as a time-based measurement to estimate years of life lost due to premature mortality or healthy life lost in different countries. Limited information was found for DALYs among different variants of concern (VOC).

Methods

Disease severities based on categories of asymptomatic, mild, moderate, severe, and critical cases were explored among different VOC by analyzing the proportions in confirmed cases. DALY or years of healthy life lost due to disability (YLD)-based annual burdens of COVID-19 on different ages, genders as well as trend analysis were also evaluated for VOC in Taiwan.

Results

Different trends were observed in years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) or YLD for various age or gender categories. Disease severity at critical stage had the highest percentage for overall YLDs encompassed from 2020 to 2022. Also, critical-grade cases were found to be predominantly caused by Wild-type, Alpha, and Omicron variants in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively.

Conclusion

Precautionary measures are also suggested for policy makers to take in specific seasons, age or gender groups based on YLL and YLD analyses.

Analysis of the Economic Burden of COVID-19 on the Workers of a Teaching Hospital in the Centre of Italy: Changes in Productivity Loss and Healthcare Costs Pre and Post Vaccination Campaign

Introduction: Following the concerning levels of spread and severity of the infection, on 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. In response to the pandemic, governments adopted several mitigation strategies. The pandemic posed a great threat to the Italian healthcare workforce (HW), with Italy being one of the hardest-hit countries. The aim of this study is to estimate the economic burden of COVID-19 on the workforce of a teaching hospital in Central Italy. Two periods are compared: 1 March 2020-9 February 2021 vs. 10 February 2021-31 March 2022. Methods: This study is conducted from a societal perspective. The database (n = 3298) of COVID-19-confirmed cases among the HW was obtained from the occupational health office of the hospital. The first entry on the database refers to 1 March 2020. Cost data were used to assess the economic burden of COVID-19 on the hospital workforce. They include two main groups: hourly salaries and medical expenses. The cost of productivity loss, hospital admission, at-home treatments, and contact tracing and screening tests were computed for the first and second periods of the analysis. Results: The total economic burden during the first period is estimated to be around EUR 3.8 million and in the second period EUR 4 million. However, the average cost per person is smaller in the second period (EUR 1561.78) compared to the first one (EUR 5906). In both periods, the cost of productivity loss is the largest component of the economic burden (55% and 57%). The cost of hospital admission decreased by more than 60% in the second period. Conclusion: Outcomes of the analysis suggest that the economic burden of COVID-19 on the HW is higher in the first period of analysis compared to the second period. The main reason could be identified in the shift from more severe and critical confirmed cases to more asymptomatic, mild, and moderate cases. The causes of this shift are not easily detectable. Vaccination, variants of the virus, and an individual's determinants of health could all be causes of the decrease in the economic burden of COVID-19 on the HW. COVID-19 can generate a high economic burden on healthcare workers and, more generally, on HWs. However, a comprehensive estimate of the economic burden of the pandemic needs to integrate the mental health repercussions and the long-term COVID-19 that will become evident in the coming years.

A proposal for further developing fatigue-related post COVID-19 health states for burden of disease studies

Previous efforts to estimate the burden of fatigue-related symptoms due to long COVID have a very high threshold for inclusion of cases, relative to the proposed definition from the World Health Organization. In practice this means that milder cases, that may be occurring very frequently, are not included in estimates of the burden of long COVID which will result in underestimation. A more comprehensive approach to modelling the disease burden from long COVID, in relation to fatigue, can ensure that we do not only focus on what is easiest to measure; which risks losing focus of less severe health states that may be more difficult to measure but are occurring very frequently. Our proposed approach provides a means to better understand the scale of challenge from long COVID, for consideration when preventative and mitigative action is being planned.

The Burden of Disease due to COVID-19 (BoCO-19): A study protocol for a secondary analysis of surveillance data in Southern and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an extensive impact on public health worldwide. However, in many countries burden of disease indicators for COVID-19 have not yet been calculated or used for monitoring. The present study protocol describes an approach developed in the project "The Burden of Disease due to COVID-19. Towards a harmonization of population health metrics for the surveillance of dynamic outbreaks" (BoCO-19). The process of data collection and aggregation across 14 different countries and sub-national regions in Southern and Eastern Europe and Central Asia is described, as well as the methodological approaches used.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study implemented in BoCO-19 is a secondary data analysis, using information from national surveillance systems as part of mandatory reporting on notifiable diseases. A customized data collection template is used to gather aggregated data on population size as well as COVID-19 cases and deaths. Years of life lost (YLL), as one component of the number of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY), are calculated as described in a recently proposed COVID-19 disease model (the 'Burden-EU' model) for the calculation of DALY. All-cause mortality data are collected for excess mortality sensitivity analyses. For the calculation of Years lived with disability (YLD), the Burden-EU model is adapted based on recent evidence. Because Covid-19 cases vary in terms of disease severity, the possibility and suitability of applying a uniform severity distribution of cases across all countries and sub-national regions will be explored. An approach recently developed for the Global Burden of Disease Study, that considers post-acute consequences of COVID-19, is likely to be adopted. Findings will be compared to explore the quality and usability of the existing data, to identify trends across age-groups and sexes and to formulate recommendations concerning potential improvements in data availability and quality.

DISCUSSION

BoCO-19 serves as a collaborative platform in order to build international capacity for the calculation of burden of disease indicators, and to support national experts in the analysis and interpretation of country-specific data, including their strengths and weaknesses. Challenges include inherent differences in data collection and reporting systems between countries, as well as assumptions that have to be made during the calculation process.

The direct disease burden of COVID-19 in Belgium in 2020 and 2021

BACKGROUND

Burden of disease estimates have become important population health metrics over the past decade to measure losses in health. In Belgium, the disease burden caused by COVID-19 has not yet been estimated, although COVID-19 has emerged as one of the most important diseases. Therefore, the current study aims to estimate the direct COVID-19 burden in Belgium, observed despite policy interventions, during 2020 and 2021, and compare it to the burden from other causes.

METHODS

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are the sum of Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) due to disease. DALYs allow comparing the burden of disease between countries, diseases, and over time. We used the European Burden of Disease Network consensus disease model for COVID-19 to estimate DALYs related to COVID-19. Estimates of person-years for (a) acute non-fatal disease states were calculated from a compartmental model, using Belgian seroprevalence, social contact, hospital, and intensive care admission data, (b) deaths were sourced from the national COVID-19 mortality surveillance, and (c) chronic post-acute disease states were derived from a Belgian cohort study.

RESULTS

In 2020, the total number of COVID-19 related DALYs was estimated at 253,577 [252,541 - 254,739], which is higher than in 2021, when it was 139,281 [136,704 - 142,306]. The observed COVID-19 burden was largely borne by the elderly, and over 90% of the burden was attributable to premature mortality (i.e., YLLs). In younger people, morbidity (i.e., YLD) contributed relatively more to the DALYs, especially in 2021, when vaccination was rolled out. Morbidity was mainly attributable to long-lasting post-acute symptoms.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 had a substantial impact on population health in Belgium, especially in 2020, when COVID-19 would have been the main cause of disease burden if all other causes had maintained their 2019 level.

Burden of COVID-19 in Córdoba, A Department of Colombia: Results of Disability-Adjusted Life-Years: Carga de COVID-19 en Córdoba, un Departamento de Colombia: Resultados de los Años de Vida Ajustados por Discapacidad

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to estimate the burden of acute COVID-19 in Córdoba, one of the most affected departments (states) in Colombia, through the estimation of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).

METHODS

DALYs were estimated based on the number of cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection cases reported by official Colombian sources. A transition probability matrix among severity states was calculated using data obtained from a retrospective cohort that included 1736 COVID-19 confirmed subjects living in Córdoba.

RESULTS

Córdoba had 120.23 deaths per 100 000 habitants during the study period (March 2020 to April 2021). Estimated total DALYs were 49 243 (2692 DALYs per 100 000 inhabitants), mostly attributed to fatal cases (99.7%). On average, 25 years of life were lost because of death by this infection. A relevant proportion of years of life lost because of COVID-19 (46.6%) was attributable to people < 60 years old and was greater in men. People ≥ 60 years old showed greater risk of progression to critical state than people between the age of 35 and 60 years (hazard ratio 2.5; 95% confidence interval 2.5-12.5) and younger than 35 years (9.1; 95% confidence interval 4.0-20.6).

CONCLUSION

In Córdoba, premature mortality because of COVID-19 was substantially represented by people < 60 years old and was greater in males. Our data may be representative of Latin American populations with great infection spread during the first year of the pandemic and contribute to novel methodological aspects and parameter estimations that may be useful to measure COVID-19 burden in other countries of the region.

Gender and age group-wise inequality in health burden and value of premature death from COVID-19 in India

Background

Earlier studies have focused on the age-group-wise health burden of COVID-19 while few studies have focused on the gender-wise analysis of the burden of COVID-19. The present study estimated the health burden and value of premature mortality from COVID-19 based on gender and age.

Methods

This study was based on secondary data collected from several sources of the government of India. To quantify the health burden, the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) method was used. An abridged life table was used to estimate the fall in life expectancy due to COVID-19. The value of premature mortality was estimated by using the human capital approach.

Results

Among COVID-19 cases, 65.08% were males and 34.92% were females. The overall health burden caused by COVID-19 was 19,24,107 DALY in 2020, 43,40,526 DALY in 2021, and 8,08,124 DALY in 2022. The health burden per 1000 males was more than double that per 1000 females. This was due to higher rates of infection and case fatality rate among males compared to females. The age group 60-64 years experienced the highest loss of healthy life years per 1000 people, while the age group 55-59 years had the highest overall loss. Due to additional deaths from COVID-19, life expectancy decreased by 0.24 years in 2020, 0.47 years in 2021, and 0.07 years in 2022. The total value of premature death in the first three years of the COVID-19 pandemic amounted to 15,849.99 crores INR.

Conclusion

In India, males and the older population were more susceptible to the impact of COVID-19.

Burden of lung cancer and predicted costs of occupational exposure to hexavalent chromium in the EU - The impact of different occupational exposure limits

BACKGROUND

Exposure to hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] occurs widely in occupational settings across the EU and is associated with lung cancer. In 2025, the occupational exposure limit is set to change to 5 μg/m³. Current exposure limits are higher, with 10 μg/m³ as a general limit and 25 μg/m³ for the welding industry. We aimed to assess the current burden of lung cancer caused by occupational exposure to Cr(VI) and to evaluate the impact of the recently established EU regulation by analysing different occupational exposure limits.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the literature, the Global Burden of Disease 2019) study, and Eurostat. We estimated the cases of cancer attributable to workplace exposure to Cr(VI) by combining exposure-effect relationships with exposure data, and calculated related DALYs and health costs in scenarios with different occupational exposure limits.

RESULTS

With current EU regulations, 253 cases (95%UI 250.96-255.71) of lung cancer were estimated to be caused by Cr(VI) in 2019, resulting in 4684 DALYs (95%UI 4683.57-4704.08). In case the welding industry adopted 10 μg/m³, a decrease of 43 cases and 797 DALYs from current values is expected. The predicted application of a 5 μg/m³ limit would cause a decrease of 148 cases and 2746 DALYs. Current costs are estimated to amount to 12.47 million euros/year (95%UI 10.19-453.82), corresponding to 39.97 million euros (95%UI 22.75-70.10) when considering costs per DALY. The limits implemented in 2025 would lead to a decrease of 23.35 million euros when considering DALYs, with benefits of introducing a limit value occurring after many decades. Adopting a 1 μg/m³ limit would lower costs to 1.04 million euros (95%UI 0.85-37.67) and to 3.33 million euros for DALYs (95%UI 1.89-5.84).

DISCUSSION

Assessing different scenarios with different Cr(VI) occupational exposure limits allowed to understand the impact of EU regulatory actions. These findings make a strong case for adapting even stricter exposure limits to protect workers' health and avoid associated costs.

Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for Drug Overdose Crisis and COVID-19 Are Comparable During the Two Years of Pandemic in the United States

OBJECTIVES

The drug overdose crisis with shifting patterns from primarily opioid to polysubstance uses and COVID-19 infections are 2 concurrent public health crises in the United States, affecting the population of sizes in different magnitudes (approximately < 10 million for substance use disorder [SUD] and drug overdoses vs 80 million for COVID-19 within 2 years of the pandemic). Our objective is to compare the relative scale of disease burden for the 2 crises within a common framework, which could help inform policy makers with resource allocation and prioritization strategies.

METHODS

We calculated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for SUD (including opioids and stimulants) and COVID-19 infections, respectively. We collected estimates for SUD prevalence, overdose deaths, COVID-19 cases and deaths, disability weights, and life expectancy from multiple publicly available sources. We then compared age distributions of estimated DALYs.

RESULTS

We estimated a total burden of 13.83 million DALYs for SUD and drug overdoses and 15.03 million DALYs for COVID-19 in 2 years since March 2020. COVID-19 burden was dominated by the fatal burden (> 95% of total DALYs), whereas SUD burden was attributed to both fatal (53%) and nonfatal burdens (47%). The highest disease burden was among individuals aged 30 to 39 years for SUD (27%) and 50 to 64 years for COVID-19 (31%).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the smaller size of the affected population, SUD and drug overdoses resulted in comparable disease burden with the COVID-19 pandemic. Additional resources supporting evidence-based interventions in prevention and treatment may be warranted to ameliorate SUD and drug overdoses during both the pandemic and postpandemic recovery.

The burden of disease due to COVID-19 in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil, over a one-year period

COVID-19 has had a powerful impact on society with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The use of an epidemiological indicator that estimates the burden of a disease by aggregating early mortality and non-fatal cases in a single measure has the potential to assist in the planning of more appropriate actions at different levels of health care. The scope of this article is to estimate the burden of disease due to COVID-19 in Florianópolis/SC from April 2020 through March 2021. An ecological study was carried out with data from notification and deaths by COVID-19 in the period of 12 months. The burden indicator called Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) was used, obtained by adding the Years of Life Lost (YLL) to the Years of healthy life lost due to disability (YLD). A total of 78,907 confirmed COVID-19 cases were included. Of these, 763 died during the period under study. Overall, 4,496.9 DALYs were estimated, namely a rate of 883.8 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants. In males, there were 2,693.1 DALYs, a rate of 1,098.0 DALYs per 100,000 males. In women, there were 1,803.8 DALYs, a rate of 684.4 DALYs per100,000 women. The age group most affected in both sexes was 60 to 69 years. The burden of COVID-19 was high in the city studied. The highest rates were in females and in the 60-69 age group.

The burden of disease due to COVID-19 in Sweden 2020-2021: A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) study

BACKGROUND

The burden of COVID-19 disease can be measured in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which is composed of two components: the years of life lost through premature death (YLL) and the number of years lived with disability (YLD), adjusted for level of disability. This study measured DALYs due to COVID-19 in Sweden and compared it to the burden of other diseases.

METHODS

The methodology used in the calculation of DALYs was based on the Global Burden of Disease guidelines. The number of patients diagnosed with mild/moderate, severe or critical COVID-19 and/or post-COVID-19 condition between March 2020 and October 2021 was extracted from national registries and used for YLD calculations. In addition, the numbers of death due to COVID-19 in different age groups were used for the YLL calculation.

RESULTS

During the study period, 152,877 DALYs were lost to COVID-19 in Sweden, 99.3% of which was attributed to YLL. Loss of DALYs occurred mainly among the elderly, with 66.8% of DALYs attributed to individuals >70 years old. Compared to other diseases, the burden of COVID-19 in 2020 ranked as the eighth leading cause of DALY lost.

CONCLUSIONS

Similar to other countries, the burden of COVID-19 in Sweden was concentrated mainly among the elderly, who contributed most of the DALY lost due to premature mortality. Yet, DALY loss remained lower for COVID-19 than for several other diseases. The contribution of YLD to DALYs lost was minimal. However empirical data on the occurrence and disability of post-COVID-19 condition are scarce, and YLD may therefore be underestimated.

Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 vaccination programme's timing and speed on health benefits, cost-effectiveness, and relative affordability in 27 African countries

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 vaccine supply shortage in 2021 constrained roll-out efforts in Africa while populations experienced waves of epidemics. As supply improves, a key question is whether vaccination remains an impactful and cost-effective strategy given changes in the timing of implementation.

METHODS

We assessed the impact of vaccination programme timing using an epidemiological and economic model. We fitted an age-specific dynamic transmission model to reported COVID-19 deaths in 27 African countries to approximate existing immunity resulting from infection before substantial vaccine roll-out. We then projected health outcomes (from symptomatic cases to overall disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted) for different programme start dates (01 January to 01 December 2021, n = 12) and roll-out rates (slow, medium, fast; 275, 826, and 2066 doses/million population-day, respectively) for viral vector and mRNA vaccines by the end of 2022. Roll-out rates used were derived from observed uptake trajectories in this region. Vaccination programmes were assumed to prioritise those above 60 years before other adults. We collected data on vaccine delivery costs, calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) compared to no vaccine use, and compared these ICERs to GDP per capita. We additionally calculated a relative affordability measure of vaccination programmes to assess potential nonmarginal budget impacts.

RESULTS

Vaccination programmes with early start dates yielded the most health benefits and lowest ICERs compared to those with late starts. While producing the most health benefits, fast vaccine roll-out did not always result in the lowest ICERs. The highest marginal effectiveness within vaccination programmes was found among older adults. High country income groups, high proportions of populations over 60 years or non-susceptible at the start of vaccination programmes are associated with low ICERs relative to GDP per capita. Most vaccination programmes with small ICERs relative to GDP per capita were also relatively affordable.

CONCLUSION

Although ICERs increased significantly as vaccination programmes were delayed, programmes starting late in 2021 may still generate low ICERs and manageable affordability measures. Looking forward, lower vaccine purchasing costs and vaccines with improved efficacies can help increase the economic value of COVID-19 vaccination programmes.

Disease burden due to COVID-19 in Taiwan: disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) with implication of Monte Carlo simulations

BACKGROUND

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected a large number of countries. Informing the public and decision makers of the COVID-19's economic burdens is essential for understanding the real pandemic impact.

METHODS

COVID-19 premature mortality and disability impact in Taiwan was analyzed using the Taiwan National Infectious Disease Statistics System (TNIDSS) by estimating the sex/age-specific years of life lost through death (YLLs), the number of years lived with disability (YLDs), and the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from January 2020 to November 2021.

RESULTS

Taiwan recorded 1004.13 DALYs (95% CI: 1002.75-1005.61) per 100,000 population for COVID-19, with YLLs accounting for 99.5% (95% CI: 99.3%99.6%) of all DALYs, with males suffering more from the disease than females. For population aged ≥ 70 years, the disease burdens of YLDs and YLLs were 0.1% and 99.9%, respectively. Furthermore, we found that duration of disease in critical state contributed 63.9% of the variance in DALY estimations.

CONCLUSIONS

The nationwide estimation of DALYs in Taiwan provides insights into the demographic distributions and key epidemiological parameter for DALYs. The essentiality of enforcing protective precautions when needed is also implicated. The higher YLLs percentage in DALYs also revealed the fact of high confirmed death rates in Taiwan. To reduce infection risks and disease, it is crucial to maintain moderate social distancing, border control, hygiene measures, and increase vaccine coverage levels.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) based COVID-19 health impact assessment: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The emergence of COVID-19 has resulted in health, socio-economic, and political crises. The overall health impact of this disease can be measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) which is the sum of the life years lost due to disability (YLDs) and the years life lost due to premature death (YLLs). The overarching objective of this systematic review was to identify the health burdens of COVID-19 and summarise the literature that can aid health regulators to make evidence-based decisions on COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

METHODS

This systematic review was conducted using the PRISMA 2020 guidelines. DALYs-based primary studies were collected from databases, manual searches, and included studies' references. The primary studies published in English language, conducted since the emergence of COVID-19, and using DALYs or its subsets (years life lost due to disability and/or years life lost due to premature death) as health impact metrics, were the inclusion criteria. The combined disability and mortality health impact of COVID-19 was measured in DALYs. The risk of bias due to literature selection, identification, and reporting processes was assessed using the Joanna Bridges Institute critical appraisal tool for cross-sectional studies, and the certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE Pro tool.

RESULT

Of the 1459 identified studies, twelve of them were eligible for inclusion in the review. The years life lost due to COVID-19 related mortality was dominant over the years life lost due to COVID-19 related disability (disability times from the onset of COVID-19 to recovery, from diseases occurrence to mortality, and the long-term consequences of COVID-19) in all included studies. The long-term consequence disability time and the pre-death disability time were not assessed by most of the reviewed articles.

CONCLUSION

The impact of COVID-19 on both the length and quality of life has been substantial and has been causing considerable health crises worldwide. The health burden of COVID-19 was greater than other infectious diseases. Further studies focussing on issues examining increasing preparedness for future pandemics, public sensitization, and multi-sectorial integration are recommended.

Model-based estimation of burden of COVID-19 with disability-adjusted life years and value of statistical life in West Bengal, India

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to health systems and populations, particularly in India. Comprehensive, population-level studies of the burden of disease could inform planning, preparedness and policy, but are lacking in India. In West Bengal, India, we conducted a detailed analysis of the burden caused by COVID-19 from its onset to 7 January 2022.

SETTING

Open-access, population-level and administrative data sets for West Bengal were used.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of potential productive life lost (YPPLL), cost of productivity lost (CPL: premature mortality and absenteeism), years of potential life lost (YPLL), premature years of potential life lost, working years of potential life lost (WYPLL) and value of statistical life (VSL) were estimated across scenarios (21 for DALY and 3 each for YPLL and VSL) to evaluate the effects of different factors.

RESULTS

COVID-19 had a higher impact on the elderly population with 90.2% of deaths arising from people aged above 45. In males and females, respectively, DALYs were 190 568.1 and 117 310.0 years, YPPLL of the productive population was 28 714.7 and 16 355.4 years, CPL due to premature mortality was INR3 198 259 615.6 and INR583 397 335.1 and CPL due to morbidity was INR2 505 568 048.4 and INR763 720 886.1. For males and females, YPLL ranged from 189 103.2 to 272 787.5 years and 117 925.5 to 169 712.0 years for lower to higher age limits, and WYPLL was 54 333.9 and 30 942.2 years. VSL (INR million) for the lower, midpoint and upper life expectancies was 883 330.8; 882 936.4; and 880 631.3, respectively. Vaccination was associated with reduced mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The losses incurred due to COVID-19 in terms of the computed estimates in West Bengal revealed a disproportionately higher impact on the elderly and males. Analysis of various age-gender subgroups enhances localised and targeted policymaking to minimise the losses for future pandemics.

Burden of infectious disease studies in Europe and the United Kingdom: a review of methodological design choices

This systematic literature review aimed to provide an overview of the characteristics and methods used in studies applying the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) concept for infectious diseases within European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA)/European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries and the United Kingdom. Electronic databases and grey literature were searched for articles reporting the assessment of DALY and its components. We considered studies in which researchers performed DALY calculations using primary epidemiological data input sources. We screened 3053 studies of which 2948 were excluded and 105 studies met our inclusion criteria. Of these studies, 22 were multi-country and 83 were single-country studies, of which 46 were from the Netherlands. Food- and water-borne diseases were the most frequently studied infectious diseases. Between 2015 and 2022, the number of burden of infectious disease studies was 1.6 times higher compared to that published between 2000 and 2014. Almost all studies (97%) estimated DALYs based on the incidence- and pathogen-based approach and without social weighting functions; however, there was less methodological consensus with regards to the disability weights and life tables that were applied. The number of burden of infectious disease studies undertaken across Europe has increased over time. Development and use of guidelines will promote performing burden of infectious disease studies and facilitate comparability of the results.

Burden of COVID-19 infection and lockdown measures on individuals with chronic diseases in Saudi Arabia: A national population-based study

BACKGROUND

The recent COVID-19 crisis has placed a huge strain on the global health and economy. The toll of the damage on the human society exceeds the morbidity and mortality of the pandemic and the associated burden, considering the multidimensional impact on all aspects of life.

OBJECTIVES

The present study assessed the specific impact of COVID-19 on individuals with chronic diseases including the Years Lost for Disability (YLD) burden of COVID-19 infection, and multidimensional impact on the disease management, adaptive lifestyle, and socioeconomic dimensions.

METHOD

A national, population-based cross-sectional study was conducted among adult Saudi population. An internet-based questionnaire was used to collect sociodemographic characteristics, medical history, impact of COVID-19 lockdown on the management of the chronic disease, adaptive lifestyle, and impact of COVID-19 on family members. Additionally, data regarding eventual COVID-19 infection, severity and management were collected. YLD was estimated and normalized per 100,000 persons.

RESULT

Having a chronic disease was not associated with a greater risk of COVID-19 (relative risk [RR]=0.83, p = 0.153); however, it was associated with higher risk of declined physical activity (RR=1.30, p < 0.0001), deteriorated eating habit (RR=1.20, p = 0.002), sleep quality (RR=1.25, p < 0.0001), and overall health perception (RR=1.61, p < 0.0001), loss of family members due to COVID-19 (RR=1.96, p = 0.0001), and impacted household income (RR=1.11, p = 0.010). In case of COVID-19 infection, having a chronic disease was associated with increased risk of hospitalization (RR=5.04, p = 0.005) and having a moderate-to-severe form of COVID-19 (RR=6.00, p = 0.013). The overall YLD was estimated to be 17.7 per 100,000 individuals, and there was no significant difference between individuals with chronic diseases and those without.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 entailed a substantial burden on the Saudi society in 2020, and individuals with preexisting chronic diseases suffered more important multidimensional impact, which need further research to assess the real impact of the pandemic and draw the pertinent lessons from the experience for future possible epidemics.

A general framework for optimising cost-effectiveness of pandemic response under partial intervention measures

The COVID-19 pandemic created enormous public health and socioeconomic challenges. The health effects of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were often contrasted with significant social and economic costs. We describe a general framework aimed to derive adaptive cost-effective interventions, adequate for both recent and emerging pandemic threats. We also quantify the net health benefits and propose a reinforcement learning approach to optimise adaptive NPIs. The approach utilises an agent-based model simulating pandemic responses in Australia, and accounts for a heterogeneous population with variable levels of compliance fluctuating over time and across individuals. Our analysis shows that a significant net health benefit may be attained by adaptive NPIs formed by partial social distancing measures, coupled with moderate levels of the society's willingness to pay for health gains (health losses averted). We demonstrate that a socially acceptable balance between health effects and incurred economic costs is achievable over a long term, despite possible early setbacks.

Advantages of Disability-Adjusted Life Years to Measure the Burden of COVID-19

Collapse

The estimated disease burden of acute COVID-19 in the Netherlands in 2020, in disability-adjusted life-years

The impact of COVID-19 on population health is recognised as being substantial, yet few studies have attempted to quantify to what extent infection causes mild or moderate symptoms only, requires hospital and/or ICU admission, results in prolonged and chronic illness, or leads to premature death. We aimed to quantify the total disease burden of acute COVID-19 in the Netherlands in 2020 using the disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) measure, and to investigate how burden varies between age-groups and occupations. Using standard methods and diverse data sources (mandatory notifications, population-level seroprevalence, hospital and ICU admissions, registered COVID-19 deaths, and the literature), we estimated years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability, DALY and DALY per 100,000 population due to COVID-19, excluding post-acute sequelae, stratified by 5-year age-group and occupation category. The total disease burden due to acute COVID-19 was 286,100 (95% CI: 281,700-290,500) DALY, and the per-capita burden was 1640 (95% CI: 1620-1670) DALY/100,000, of which 99.4% consisted of YLL. The per-capita burden increased steeply with age, starting from 60 to 64 years, with relatively little burden estimated for persons under 50 years old. SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated premature mortality was responsible for a considerable direct health burden in the Netherlands, despite extensive public health measures. DALY were much higher than for other high-burden infectious diseases, but lower than estimated for coronary heart disease. These findings are valuable for informing public health decision-makers regarding the expected COVID-19 health burden among population subgroups, and the possible gains from targeted preventative interventions.

Role and Limits of COVID-19 Vaccines in the Delicate Transition from Pandemic Mitigation to Endemic Control

The recent surge of COVID-19 related to the Omicron variant emergence has thrown a harsh light upon epidemic control in the near future. This should lead the scientific and medical community to question the long-term vaccine strategy for SARS-CoV-2 control. We provide here a critical point of view regarding the virological evolution, epidemiological aspects, and immunological drivers for COVID-19 control, including a vaccination strategy. Overall, we need more innovations in vaccine development to reduce the COVID-19 burden long term. The most adequate answer might be better cooperation between universities, biotech and pharmaceutical companies

Disability adjusted life years associated with COVID-19 in Denmark in the first year of the pandemic

Background

Burden of disease studies measure the public health impact of a disease in a society. The aim of this study was to quantify the direct burden of COVID-19 in the first 12 months of the epidemic in Denmark.

Methods

We collected national surveillance data on positive individuals for SARS-CoV-2 with RT-PCR, hospitalization data, and COVID-19 mortality reported in the period between 26^th of February, 2020 to 25^th of February, 2021. We calculated disability adjusted life years (DALYs) based on the European Burden of Disease Network consensus COVID-19 model, which considers mild, severe, critical health states, and premature death. We conducted sensitivity analyses for two different death-registration scenarios, within 30 and 60 days after first positive test, respectively.

Results

We estimated that of the 211,823 individuals who tested positive to SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR in the one-year period, 124,163 (59%; 95% uncertainty interval (UI) 112,782–133,857) had at least mild symptoms of disease. The total estimated disease burden was 30,180 DALYs (95% UI 30,126; 30,242), corresponding to 520 DALYs/100,000. The disease burden was higher in the age groups above 70 years of age, particularly in men. Years of life lost (YLL) contributed with more than 99% of total DALYs. The results of the scenario analysis showed that defining COVID-19-related fatalities as deaths registered up to 30 days after the first positive test led to a lower YLL estimate than when using a 60-days window.

Conclusion

COVID-19 led to a substantial public health impact in Denmark in the first full year of the epidemic. Our estimates suggest that it was the the sixth most frequent cause of YLL in Denmark in 2020. This impact will be higher when including the post-acute consequences of COVID-19 and indirect health outcomes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13694-9.

Burden of disease of COVID-19 in the department of Nariño, Colombia, 2020-2021

OBJECTIVES.

To estimate the burden of disease of COVID-19 in the department of Nariño, Colombia, based on the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between March 2020 and August 2021.

MATERIALS AND METHODS.

The description and characterization of COVID-19 cases reported between March 2020 and August 2021 was made according to age groups, sex, ethnicity, municipalities of residence and subregions of Nariño by using information from the national surveillance system SIVIGILA. Crude and cumulative mortality rates for COVID-19 were estimated for the previously described variables. Years lost due to premature death (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD) were calculated. Total DALYs were estimated by adding YLL + YLD. These were calculated by sex, ethnicity, age group and subregions of Nariño. Relative risks were estimated from rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals for the study variables.

RESULTS.

The highest morbidity, mortality and DALY rates occurred between February and September 2021, in men, in those older than 70 years, in the Afro-descendant ethnic minority group and in the Central, Obando and Juanambú subregions. The burden of disease of COVID-19 in Nariño during the study period is attributed to the YLL, which explain more than 97% of it.

CONCLUSIONS.

This is one of the first studies on burden of disease at the regional level, carried out in Colombia, that employs a standardized methodology for COVID-19. This measurement would generate estimates that would allow targeting resources in an intersectoral manner, mitigating the damage to specific populations and geographic areas, especially the most vulnerable ones.

Burden of Disease of COVID-19: Strengthening the Collaboration for National Studies

Objectives

Quantifying the combined impact of morbidity and mortality is a key enabler to assessing the impact of COVID-19 across countries and within countries relative to other diseases, regions, or demographics. Differences in methods, data sources, and definitions of mortality due to COVID-19 may hamper comparisons. We describe efforts to support countries in estimating the national-level burden of COVID-19 using disability-adjusted life years.

Methods

The European Burden of Disease Network developed a consensus methodology, as well as a range of capacity-building activities to support burden of COVID-19 studies. These activities have supported 11 national studies so far, with study periods between January 2020 and December 2021.

Results

National studies dealt with various data gaps and different assumptions were made to face knowledge gaps. Still, they delivered broadly comparable results that allow for interpretation of consistencies, as well as differences in the quantified direct health impact of the pandemic.

Discussion

Harmonized efforts and methodologies have allowed for comparable estimates and communication of results. Future studies should evaluate the impact of interventions, and unravel the indirect health impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

Estimating the Direct Disability-Adjusted Life Years Associated With SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in the Republic of Ireland: The First Full Year

Objectives: Burden of Disease frameworks facilitate estimation of the health impact of diseases to be translated into a single measure, such as the Disability-Adjusted-Life-Year (DALY).

Methods: DALYs were calculated as the sum of Years of Life Lost (YLL) and Years Lived with Disability (YLD) directly associated with COVID-19 in the Republic of Ireland (RoI) from 01 March 2020, to 28 February 2021. Life expectancy is based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study life tables for 2019.

Results: There were 220,273 confirmed cases with a total of 4,500 deaths as a direct result of COVID-19. DALYs were estimated to be 51,622.8 (95% Uncertainty Intervals [UI] 50,721.7, 52,435.8). Overall, YLL contributed to 98.5% of the DALYs. Of total symptomatic cases, 6.5% required hospitalisation and of those hospitalised 10.8% required intensive care unit treatment. COVID-19 was likely to be the second highest cause of death over our study’s duration.

Conclusion: Estimating the burden of a disease at national level is useful for comparing its impact with other diseases in the population and across populations. This work sets out to standardise a COVID-19 BoD methodology framework for the RoI and comparable nations in the EU.

Widening of inequalities in COVID-19 years of life lost from 2020 to 2021: a Scottish Burden of Disease Study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have highlighted the large extent of inequality in adverse COVID-19 health outcomes. Our aim was to monitor changes in overall, and inequalities in, COVID-19 years of life lost to premature mortality (YLL) in Scotland from 2020 and 2021.

METHODS

Cause-specific COVID-19 mortality counts were derived at age group and area deprivation level using Scottish death registrations for 2020 and 2021. YLL was estimated by multiplying mortality counts by age-conditional life expectancy from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 reference life table. Various measures of absolute and relative inequality were estimated for triangulation purposes.

RESULTS

There were marked inequalities in COVID-19 YLL by area deprivation in 2020, which were further exacerbated in 2021; confirmed across all measures of absolute and relative inequality. Half (51%) of COVID-19 YLL was attributable to inequalities in area deprivation in 2021, an increase from 41% in 2020.

CONCLUSION

Despite a highly impactful vaccination programme in preventing mortality, COVID-19 continues to represent a substantial area of fatal population health loss for which inequalities have widened. Tackling systemic inequalities with effective interventions is required to mitigate further unjust health loss in the Scottish population from COVID-19 and other causes of ill-health and mortality.

Inclusive health: modeling COVID-19 in correctional facilities and communities

Background

Mass incarceration, commonly associated with overcrowding and inadequate health resources for incarcerated people, creates a fertile environment for the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in U.S. correctional facilities. The exact role that correctional facilities play in enhancing COVID-19 spread and enabling community re-emergence of COVID-19 is unknown.

Methods

We constructed a novel stochastic model of COVID-19 transmission to estimate the impact of correctional facilities, specifically jails and state prisons, for enhancing disease transmission and enabling disease re-emergence in local communities. Using our model, we evaluated scenarios of testing and quarantining infected incarcerated people at 0.0, 0.5, and 1.0 times the rate that occurs for infected people in the community for population sizes of 5, 10, and 20 thousand people.

Results

Our results illustrate testing and quarantining an incarcerated population of 800 would reduce the probability of a major outbreak in the local community. In addition, testing and quarantining an incarcerated population would prevent between 10 to 2640 incidences of COVID-19 per year, and annually save up to 2010 disability-adjusted life years, depending on community size.

Conclusions

Managing COVID-19 in correctional facilities is essential to mitigate risks to community health, and thereby stresses the importance of improving the health standards of incarcerated people.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13313-7.

Modelling the potential acute and post-acute burden of COVID-19 under the Australian border re-opening plan

BACKGROUND

Concerns have grown that post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 may affect significant numbers of survivors. However, the analyses used to guide policy-making for Australia's national and state re-opening plans have not incorporated non-acute illness in their modelling. We, therefore, develop a model by which to estimate the potential acute and post-acute COVID-19 burden using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with the re-opening of Australian borders and the easing of other public health measures, with particular attention to longer-term, post-acute consequences and the potential impact of permanent functional impairment following COVID-19.

METHODS

A model was developed based on the European Burden of Disease Network protocol guideline and consensus model to estimate the burden of COVID-19 using DALYs. Data inputs were based on publicly available sources. COVID-19 infection and different scenarios were drawn from the Doherty Institute's modelling report to estimate the likely DALY losses under the Australian national re-opening plan. Long COVID prevalence, post-intensive care syndrome (PICS) and potential permanent functional impairment incidences were drawn from the literature. DALYs were calculated for the following health states: the symptomatic phase, Long COVID, PICS and potential permanent functional impairment (e.g., diabetes, Parkinson's disease, dementia, anxiety disorders, ischemic stroke). Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed to examine the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

Mortality was responsible for 72-74% of the total base case COVID-19 burden. Long COVID and post-intensive care syndrome accounted for at least 19 and 3% of the total base case DALYs respectively. When included in the analysis, potential permanent impairment could contribute to 51-55% of total DALYs lost.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of Long COVID and potential long-term post-COVID disabilities could contribute substantially to the COVID-19 burden in Australia's post-vaccination setting. As vaccination coverage increases, the share of COVID-19 burden driven by longer-term morbidity rises relative to mortality. As Australia re-opens, better estimates of the COVID-19 burden can assist with decision-making on pandemic control measures and planning for the healthcare needs of COVID-19 survivors. Our estimates highlight the importance of valuing the morbidity of post-COVID-19 sequelae, above and beyond simple mortality and case statistics.

Measuring disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to COVID-19 in Scotland, 2020

BACKGROUND

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) combine the impact of morbidity and mortality and can enable comprehensive, and comparable, assessments of direct and indirect health harms due to COVID-19. Our aim was to estimate DALYs directly due to COVID-19 in Scotland, during 2020; and contextualise its population impact relative to other causes of disease and injury.

METHODS

National deaths and daily case data were used. Deaths were based on underlying and contributory causes recorded on death certificates. We calculated DALYs based on the COVID-19 consensus model and methods outlined by the European Burden of Disease Network. DALYs were presented as a range, using a sensitivity analysis based on Years of Life Lost estimates using: cause-specific; and COVID-19 related deaths. All COVID-19 estimates were for 2020.

RESULTS

In 2020, estimates of COVID-19 DALYs in Scotland ranged from 96,500 to 108,200. Direct COVID-19 DALYs were substantial enough to be framed as the second leading cause of disease and injury, with only ischaemic heart disease having a larger impact on population health. Mortality contributed 98% of total DALYs.

CONCLUSIONS

The direct population health impact of COVID-19 has been very substantial. Despite unprecedented mitigation efforts, COVID-19 developed from a single identified case in early 2020 to a condition with an impact in Scotland second only to ischaemic heart disease. Periodic estimation of DALYs during 2021, and beyond, will provide indications of the impact of DALYs averted due to the national rollout of the vaccination programme and other continued mitigation efforts, although new variants may pose significant challenges.

Risk factor targeting for vaccine prioritization during the COVID-19 pandemic

A key public health question during any disease outbreak when limited vaccine is available is who should be prioritized for early vaccination. Most vaccine prioritization analyses only consider variation in risk of infection and death by a single risk factor, such as age. We provide a more granular approach with stratification by demographics, risk factors, and location. We use this approach to compare the impact of different COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies on COVID-19 cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over the first 6 months of vaccine rollout, using California as a case example. We estimate the proportion of cases, deaths and DALYs averted relative to no vaccination for strategies prioritizing vaccination by a single risk factor and by multiple risk factors (e.g. age, location). When targeting by a single risk factor, we find that age-based targeting averts the most deaths (62% for 5 million individuals vaccinated) and DALYs (38%) and targeting essential workers averts the least deaths (31%) and DALYs (24%) over the first 6 months of rollout. However, targeting by two or more risk factors simultaneously averts up to 40% more DALYs. Our findings highlight the potential value of multiple-risk-factor targeting of vaccination against COVID-19 and other infectious diseases, but must be balanced with feasibility for policy.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to the direct health impact of COVID-19 in India, 2020

COVID-19 has affected all countries. Its containment represents a unique challenge for India due to a large population (> 1.38 billion) across a wide range of population densities. Assessment of the COVID-19 disease burden is required to put the disease impact into context and support future pandemic policy development. Here, we present the national-level burden of COVID-19 in India in 2020 that accounts for differences across urban and rural regions and across age groups. Input data were collected from official records or published literature. The proportion of excess COVID-19 deaths was estimated using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Washington data. Disability-adjusted life years (DALY) due to COVID-19 were estimated in the Indian population in 2020, comprised of years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD). YLL was estimated by multiplying the number of deaths due to COVID-19 by the residual standard life expectancy at the age of death due to the disease. YLD was calculated as a product of the number of incident cases of COVID-19, disease duration and disability weight. Scenario analyses were conducted to account for excess deaths not recorded in the official data and for reported COVID-19 deaths. The direct impact of COVID-19 in 2020 in India was responsible for 14,100,422 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 14,030,129–14,213,231) DALYs, consisting of 99.2% (95% UI 98.47–99.64%) YLLs and 0.80% (95% UI 0.36–1.53) YLDs. DALYs were higher in urban (56%; 95% UI 56–57%) than rural areas (44%; 95% UI 43.4–43.6) and in men (64%) than women (36%). In absolute terms, the highest DALYs occurred in the 51–60-year-old age group (28%) but the highest DALYs per 100,000 persons were estimated for the 71–80 years old age group (5481; 95% UI 5464–5500 years). There were 4,815,908 (95% UI 4,760,908–4,924,307) DALYs after considering reported COVID-19 deaths only. The DALY estimations have direct and immediate implications not only for public policy in India, but also internationally given that India represents one sixth of the world’s population.

Impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy at birth in India: a decomposition analysis

BACKGROUND

Quantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth (e0) provide a more comprehensive understanding of the burden of coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) on mortality. The study aims to comprehend the repercussions of the burden of COVID-19 disease on the life expectancy at birth and inequality in age at death in India.

METHODS

The mortality schedule of COVID-19 disease in the pandemic year 2020 was considered one of the causes of death in the category of other infectious diseases in addition to other 21 causes of death in the non-pandemic year 2019 in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. The measures e0 and Gini coefficient at age zero (G0) and then sex differences in e0 and G0 over time were analysed by assessing the age-specific contributions based on the application of decomposition analyses in the entire period of 2010-2020.

RESULTS

The e0 for men and women decline from 69.5 and 72.0 years in 2019 to 67.5 and 69.8 years, respectively, in 2020. The e0 shows a drop of approximately 2.0 years in 2020 when compared to 2019. The sex differences in e0 and G0 are negatively skewed towards men. The trends in e0 and G0 value reveal that its value in 2020 is comparable to that in the early 2010s. The age group of 35-79 years showed a remarkable negative contribution to Δe0 and ΔG0. By causes of death, the COVID-19 disease has contributed - 1.5 and - 9.5%, respectively, whereas cardiovascular diseases contributed the largest value of was 44.6 and 45.9%, respectively, to sex differences in e0 and G0 in 2020. The outcomes reveal a significant impact of excess deaths caused by the COVID-19 disease on mortality patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic has negative repercussions on e0 and G0 in the pandemic year 2020. It has severely affected the distribution of age at death in India, resulting in widening the sex differences in e0 and G0. The COVID-19 disease demonstrates its potential to cancel the gains of six to eight years in e0 and five years in G0 and has slowed the mortality transition in India.

First-Time Psychotic Symptoms in a Patient After COVID-19 Infection-A Case Report

A 39-year-old, previously healthy, white male with no personal or family history of mental illness presented with new, first-time psychotic symptoms. The new psychotic symptoms appeared on patient admission to the hospital, occurring during a diagnosis of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. On the first day of hospitalization for worsening psychotic symptoms and the appearance of aggression toward the staff, the patient was transferred to the psychiatric hospital. After the initial treatment with antipsychotics and benzodiazepines, his mental condition improved. The patient was then transferred for further treatment of his somatic condition in the internal medicine ward, with a recommendation to continue treatment in the psychiatric ward once his somatic condition was stabilized. This is one of the few reported cases of COVID-19-related psychosis in a patient without a personal or family history; moreover, this description contains important data regarding elevated IL-6, which may prove to be a key factor in the induction of new psychotic symptoms. It indicates the important need for careful monitoring of neuropsychiatric symptoms among COVID-19 patients.

Estimating the direct Covid-19 disability-adjusted life years impact on the Malta population for the first full year

BACKGROUND

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) combine the impact of morbidity and mortality, allowing for comprehensive comparisons of the population. The aim was to estimate the DALYs due to Covid-19 in Malta (March 2020-21) and investigate its impact in relation to other causes of disease at a population level.

METHODS

Mortality and weekly hospital admission data were used to calculate DALYs, based on the European Burden of Disease Network consensus Covid-19 model. Covid-19 infection duration of 14 days was considered. Sensitivity analyses for different morbidity scenarios, including post-acute consequences were presented.

RESULTS

An estimated 70,421 people were infected (with and without symptoms) by Covid-19 in Malta (March 2020-1), out of which 1636 required hospitalisation and 331 deaths, contributing to 5478 DALYs. These DALYs positioned Covid-19 as the fourth leading cause of disease in Malta. Mortality contributed to 95% of DALYs, while post-acute consequences contributed to 60% of morbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Covid-19 over 1 year has impacted substantially the population health in Malta. Post-acute consequences are the leading morbidity factors that require urgent targeted action to ensure timely multidisciplinary care. It is recommended that DALY estimations in 2021 and beyond are calculated to assess the impact of vaccine roll-out and emergence of new variants.

Inequalities in population health loss by multiple deprivation: COVID-19 and pre-pandemic all-cause disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Scotland

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has caused almost unprecedented change across health, education, the economy and social interaction. It is widely understood that the existing mechanisms which shape health inequalities have resulted in COVID-19 outcomes following this same, familiar, pattern. Our aim was to estimate inequalities in the population health impact of COVID-19 in Scotland, measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2020. Our secondary aim was to scale overall, and inequalities in, COVID-19 DALYs against the level of pre-pandemic inequalities in all-cause DALYs, derived from the Scottish Burden of Disease (SBoD) study.

METHODS

National deaths and daily case data were input into the European Burden of Disease Network consensus model to estimate DALYs. Total Years of Life Lost (YLL) were estimated for each area-based deprivation quintile of the Scottish population. Years Lived with Disability were proportionately distributed to deprivation quintiles, based on YLL estimates. Inequalities were measured by: the range, Relative Index of Inequality (RII), Slope Index of Inequality (SII), and attributable DALYs were estimated by using the least deprived quintile as a reference.

RESULTS

Marked inequalities were observed across several measures. The SII range was 2048 to 2289 COVID-19 DALYs per 100,000 population. The rate in the most deprived areas was around 58% higher than the mean population rate (RII = 1.16), with 40% of COVID-19 DALYs attributed to differences in area-based deprivation. Overall DALYs due to COVID-19 ranged from 7 to 20% of the annual pre-pandemic impact of inequalities in health loss combined across all causes.

CONCLUSION

The substantial population health impact of COVID-19 in Scotland was not shared equally across areas experiencing different levels of deprivation. The extent of inequality due to COVID-19 was similar to averting all annual DALYs due to diabetes. In the wider context of population health loss, overall ill-health and mortality due to COVID-19 was, at most, a fifth of the annual population health loss due to inequalities in multiple deprivation. Implementing effective policy interventions to reduce health inequalities must be at the forefront of plans to recover and improve population health.

Estimation of the economic burden of COVID-19 using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and productivity losses in Kerala, India: a model-based analysis

OBJECTIVES

From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, clinical practice and research globally have centred on the prevention of transmission and treatment of the disease. The pandemic has had a huge impact on the economy and stressed healthcare systems worldwide. The present study estimates disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of potential productive life lost (YPPLL) and cost of productivity lost (CPL) due to premature mortality and absenteeism secondary to COVID-19 in the state of Kerala, India.

SETTING

Details on sociodemographics, incidence, death, quarantine, recovery time, etc were derived from public sources and the Collective for Open Data Distribution-Keralam. The working proportion for 5-year age-gender cohorts and the corresponding life expectancy were obtained from the 2011 Census of India.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The impact of the disease was computed through model-based analysis on various age-gender cohorts. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by adjusting six variables across 21 scenarios. We present two estimates, one until 15 November 2020 and later updated to 10 June 2021.

RESULTS

Severity of infection and mortality were higher among the older cohorts, with men being more susceptible than women in most subgroups. DALYs for males and females were 15 954.5 and 8638.4 until 15 November 2020, and 83 853.0 and 56 628.3 until 10 June 2021. The corresponding YPPLL were 1323.57 and 612.31 until 15 November 2020, and 6993.04 and 3811.57 until 10 June 2021, and the CPL (premature mortality) were 263 780 579.94 and 41 836 001.82 until 15 November 2020, and 1 419 557 903.76 and 278 275 495.29 until 10 June 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

Most of the COVID-19 burden was contributed by years of life lost. Losses due to YPPLL were reduced as the impact of COVID-19 infection was lesser among the productive cohorts. The CPL values for individuals aged 40-49 years old were the highest. These estimates provide the data necessary for policymakers to work on reducing the economic burden of COVID-19 in Kerala.

Estimating global burden of COVID-19 with disability-adjusted life years and value of statistical life metrics

BACKGROUND

Global burden of COVID-19 has not been well studied, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and value of statistical life (VSL) metrics were therefore proposed to quantify its impacts on health and economic loss globally.

METHODS

The life expectancy, cases, and death numbers of COVID-19 until 30th April 2021 were retrieved from open data to derive the epidemiological profiles and DALYs (including years of life lost (YLL) and years loss due to disability (YLD)) by four periods. The VSL estimates were estimated by using hedonic wage method (HWM) and contingent valuation method (CVM). The estimate of willingness to pay using CVM was based on the meta-regression mixed model. Machine learning method was used for classification.

RESULTS

Globally, DALYs (in thousands) due to COVID-19 was tallied as 31,930 from Period I to IV. YLL dominated over YLD. The estimates of VSL were US$591 billion and US$5135 billion based on HWM and CVM, respectively. The estimate of VSL increased from US$579 billion in Period I to US$2160 billion in Period IV using CVM. The higher the human development index (HDI), the higher the value of DALYs and VSL. However, there exits the disparity even at the same level of HDI. Machine learning analysis categorized eight patterns of global burden of COVID-19 with a large variation from US$0.001 billion to US$691.4 billion.

CONCLUSION

Global burden of COVID-19 pandemic resulted in substantial health and value of life loss particularly in developed economies. Classifications of such health and economic loss is informative to early preparation of adequate resource to reduce impacts.