Linking Eco-Energetics and Eco-Hydrology to Select Sites for the Assisted Colonization of Australia's Rarest Reptile

Climate change and collapsing thermal niches of desert reptiles and amphibians: Assisted migration and acclimation rescue from extirpation

Recent climate change should result in expansion of species to northern or high elevation range margins, and contraction at southern and low elevation margins in the northern hemisphere, because of local extirpations or range shifts or both. We combined museum occurrence records from both the continental U.S. and Mexico with a new eco-physiological model of extinction developed for lizard families of the world to predict the distributions of 30 desert-endemic reptile and amphibian species under climate change scenarios. The model predicts that 38 % of local populations will go extinct in the next 50 years, across all 30 species. However, extinctions may be attenuated in forested sites and by the presence of montane environments in contemporary ranges. Of the 30 species, three were at very high risk of extinction as a result of their thermal limits being exceeded, which illustrates the predictive value of ecophysiological modeling approaches for conservation studies. In tandem with global strategies of limiting CO2 emissions, we propose urgent regional management strategies for existing and new reserves that are targeted at three species: Barred Tiger Salamander (Ambystomatidae: Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi), Desert Short-horned Lizard (Phrynosomatidae: Phrynosoma ornatissimum), and Morafka's Desert Tortoise (Testudinidae: Gopherus morafkai), which face a high risk of extinction by 2070. These strategies focus on assisted migration and preservation within climatic refugia, such as high-elevation and forested habitats. We forecast where new reserves should be established by merging our model of extinction risk with gap analysis. We also highlight that acclimation (i.e., phenotypic plasticity) could ameliorate risk of extinction but is rarely included in ecophysiological models. We use Ambystoma salamanders to show how acclimation can be incorporated into such models of extinction risk.

Commonly collected thermal performance data can inform species distributions in a data-limited invader

Predicting potential distributions of species in new areas is challenging. Physiological data can improve interpretation of predicted distributions and can be used in directed distribution models. Nonnative species provide useful case studies. Panther chameleons (Furcifer pardalis) are native to Madagascar and have established populations in Florida, USA, but standard correlative distribution modeling predicts no suitable habitat for F. pardalis there. We evaluated commonly collected thermal traits- thermal performance, tolerance, and preference-of F. pardalis and the acclimatization potential of these traits during exposure to naturally-occurring environmental conditions in North Central Florida. Though we observed temperature-dependent thermal performance, chameleons maintained similar thermal limits, performance, and preferences across seasons, despite long-term exposure to cool temperatures. Using the physiological data collected, we developed distribution models that varied in restriction: time-dependent exposure near and below critical thermal minima, predicted activity windows, and predicted performance thresholds. Our application of commonly collected physiological data improved interpretations on potential distributions of F. pardalis, compared with correlative distribution modeling approaches that predicted no suitable area in Florida. These straightforward approaches can be applied to other species with existing physiological data or after brief experiments on a limited number of individuals, as demonstrated here.

Ecological Considerations When Designing Mitigation Translocations: An Australian Reptile Case Study

Translocation science has made considerable progress over the last two decades; however, reptile translocations still frequently fail around the world. Major knowledge gaps surround the basic ecology of reptile species, including basic factors such as habitat preference, which have a critical influence on translocation success. The western spiny-tailed skink (Egernia stokesii badia) is used here as a case study to exemplify how empirical research can directly inform on-ground management and future translocation planning. A combination of studies, including LiDAR scanning of microhabitat structures, camera trapping, plasticine replica model experiments and unbounded point count surveys to assess predation risk, and visual and DNA analysis of dietary requirements, were all used to better understand the ecological requirements of E. s. badia. We found that the skinks have specific log pile requirements, both native and non-native predator management requirements, and a largely herbivorous, broad diet, which all influence translocation site selection and management planning. The use of E. s. badia as an Australian case study provides a clear strategic framework for the targeted research of meaningful ecological factors that influence translocation decision-making. Similar approaches applied to other reptile species are likely to fundamentally increase the capacity for effective management, and the likelihood of future successful translocations.

Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: The promise of biophysical ecology

A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models relating to data availability, training, and the lack of common software ecosystems. We also discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. Finally, we highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments.

Integrating animal physiology into the adaptive management of restored landscapes

Global-scale ecological changes and intensifying habitat destruction and have caused alarming declines in wildlife populations, resulting in a great need for concerted efforts towards their conservation. Despite this, animals are frequently overlooked in restoration and management initiatives and therefore populations often do not reassemble following disturbance without re-establishing habitat that meets their abiotic and biotic requirements. However, restoration ecologists broadly lack insight into the physiological mechanisms that can govern the responses of fauna to environmental change and management. Therefore, we conducted a literature search for studies reporting a mechanistic understanding of faunal habitat suitability and selection in restored landscapes to deliver an updated perspective on the integration of animal ecophysiology and restoration ecology. Of the 75,442 studies that we identified discussing ecological restoration in the last 50 years, only 8,627 (11.4%) did so in the context of fauna from which 912 studies (1.2%) examined habitat selection, 35 studies (0.05%) integrated physiology and only 15 studies (0.02%) explored thermal biology, despite temperature being one of the most pervasive drivers of physiological functioning. To combat this, we developed a conceptual framework that can guide restoration ecophysiology and promote innovative, multidisciplinary research through an established adaptive management structure. While physiological tools and approaches are currently underutilised in restoration practice, integrating them into ecological restoration, and environmental management more broadly, will offer exciting new opportunities to describe, explain and predict the responses of fauna to environmental change occurring, and that yet to come.

Turtles and Tortoises Are in Trouble

Turtles and tortoises (chelonians) have been integral components of global ecosystems for about 220 million years and have played important roles in human culture for at least 400,000 years. The chelonian shell is a remarkable evolutionary adaptation, facilitating success in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Today, more than half of the 360 living species and 482 total taxa (species and subspecies combined) are threatened with extinction. This places chelonians among the groups with the highest extinction risk of any sizeable vertebrate group. Turtle populations are declining rapidly due to habitat loss, consumption by humans for food and traditional medicines and collection for the international pet trade. Many taxa could become extinct in this century. Here, we examine survival threats to turtles and tortoises and discuss the interventions that will be needed to prevent widespread extinction in this group in coming decades.

Novel Conditions in Conservation Translocations: A Conservative-Extrapolative Strategic Framework

In response to anthropogenic threats, conservation translocations are increasingly used to combat species' population and range declines. However, moving animals outside of their current distribution can mean introducing them to novel conditions, even in the case of reintroductions to formerly inhabited areas due to ecosystem changes following extirpation. This exposure to novel conditions introduces uncertainty that can undermine decision making for species conservation. Here we propose two strategies, which we define as conservative and extrapolative, for approaching and managing novelty and the resulting uncertainty in conservation translocations. Conservative strategies are characterised by the avoidance and removal of novel conditions as much as possible, whereas extrapolative strategies are more experimental, allowing exposure to novel conditions and monitoring outcomes to increase understanding of a species' ecology. As each strategy carries specific risks and opportunities, they will be applicable in different scenarios. Extrapolative strategies suit species in recovery which can afford some experimental management, or species facing novel and emerging threats which require less traditional translocations, such as assisted colonisations. We provide examples, applying our framework to two endemic New Zealand species with long histories of translocation management: tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus), a reptile and takahē (Porphyrio hochstetteri), a flightless bird.

Running performance with emphasis on low temperatures in a Patagonian lizard, Liolaemus lineomaculatus

Lizard activity and endurance of cold climate is regulated by several factors such as evolutionary potential, acclimatization capacity, physiological tolerance, and locomotion among thermally advantageous microenvironments. Liolaemus lineomaculatus, a lizard inhabiting a wide range of cold environments in Patagonia, provides an excellent model to test interpopulation variability in thermal performance curves (TPCs) and usage of microhabitats. We obtained critical thermal minima and maxima, and performed running trials at eight temperatures using lizards from both a temperate-site (high-altitude) population at 42° S and a cold-site population at 50° S. The availability of environmental temperatures for running performance in open ground and in potential lizard refuges were recorded, and showed that lizards in the temperate site had a greater availability of thermal environments offering temperatures conducive to locomotion. Generalized additive mixed models showed that the two populations displayed TPCs of different shapes in 0.15 m runs at temperatures near their optimal temperature, indicating a difference in thermal sensitivity at high temperatures. However, the rest of the locomotor parameters remained similar between Liolaemus lineomaculatus from thermal and ecological extremes of their geographic distribution and this may partly explain their ability to endure a cold climate.

Modeling Dragons: Using linked mechanistic physiological and microclimate models to explore environmental, physiological, and morphological constraints on the early evolution of dinosaurs

We employed the widely-tested biophysiological modeling software, Niche Mapper™ to investigate the metabolic function of the Late Triassic dinosaurs Plateosaurus and Coelophysis during global greenhouse conditions. We tested a variety of assumptions about resting metabolic rate, each evaluated within six microclimate models that bound paleoenvironmental conditions at 12° N paleolatitude, as determined by sedimentological and isotopic proxies for climate within the Chinle Formation of the southwestern United States. Sensitivity testing of metabolic variables and simulated “metabolic chamber” analyses support elevated “ratite-like” metabolic rates and intermediate “monotreme-like” core temperature ranges in these species of early saurischian dinosaur. Our results suggest small theropods may have needed partial to full epidermal insulation in temperate environments, while fully grown prosauropods would have likely been heat stressed in open, hot environments and should have been restricted to cooler microclimates such as dense forests or higher latitudes and elevations. This is in agreement with the Late Triassic fossil record and may have contributed to the latitudinal gap in the Triassic prosauropod record.

The lizard abides: cold hardiness and winter refuges of Liolaemus pictus argentinus in Patagonia, Argentina

In environments where the temperature periodically drops below zero, it is remarkable that some lizards can survive. Behaviorally, lizards can find microsites for overwintering where temperatures do not drop as much as the air temperature. Physiologically, they can alter their biochemical balance to tolerate freezing or avoid it by supercooling. We evaluated the cold hardiness of a population of Liolaemus pictus argentinus Müller and Hellmich, 1939 in the mountains of Esquel (Patagonia, Argentina) during autumn. Additionally, we assessed the thermal quality (in degree-days) of potential refuges in a mid-elevation forest (1100 m above sea level (asl)) and in the high Andean steppe (1400 m asl). We analyzed the role of urea, glucose, total proteins, and albumin as possible cryoprotectants, comparing a group of lizards gradually exposed to temperatures lower than 0 °C with a control group maintained at room temperature. However, we found no evidence to support the presence of freeze tolerance or supercooling mechanisms in this species as related to the analyzed metabolites. Instead, the low frequency of degree-days below 0 °C and temperatures never lower than −3 °C in potential refuges suggest that L. p. argentinus might avoid physiological investments (such as supercooling and freeze tolerance) by behaviorally selecting appropriate refuges to overcome cold environmental temperatures.

Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications

Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process-explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process-explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs - regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species - we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process-explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised.

Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris

Translocation of species to areas of former habitat after threats have been mitigated is a common conservation action. However, the long-term success of reintroduction relies on identification of currently available habitat and areas that will remain, or become, habitat in the future. Commonly, a short-term view is taken, focusing on obvious and assumed threats such as predators and habitat degradation. However, in areas subject to significant climate change, challenges include correctly identifying variables that define habitat, and considering probable changes over time. This poses challenges with species such as the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris, which was once relatively common in near-coastal south-western Australia, an area subject to major climate change. This species has declined to one small population, estimated to comprise < 150 individuals. Reasons for the decline include altered fire regimes, introduced predators and habitat clearing. The establishment of new populations is a high priority, but the extent to which a rapidly changing climate has affected, and will continue to affect, this species remains largely conjecture, and understanding probable climate change impacts is essential to the prioritization of potential reintroduction sites. We developed high-resolution species distribution models and used these to investigate climate change impacts on current and historical distributions, and identify locations that will remain, or become, bioclimatically suitable habitat in the future. This information has been given to an expert panel to identify and prioritize areas suitable for site-specific management and/or translocation.

Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change

Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.

Effects of temperature and exercise on metabolism of three species of Australian freshwater turtles: implications for responses to climate change

Oxygen consumption () of Chelodina expansa, C. longicollis and Emydura macquarii (Pleurodira: Chelidae) was measured at rest and during induced exercise at 8, 13, 18, 22, 26, 30 and 34°C. Resting varied significantly among species, being lowest in C. expansa, which is the most sedentary of the three species in nature, and highest in E. macquarii, which is the most energetic, but active did not differ significantly among the three species overall. For both Chelodina species, resting was appreciably lower than expected from regression of on body mass for non-marine turtles globally, a result that reinforces previous evidence of low resting metabolism in Australian chelid turtles. Active of all three species at higher temperatures was similar to reported for active freshwater cryptodires. Resting of all three species increased similarly with temperature, but active and aerobic scope did not. In C. expansa and E. macquarii, active and aerobic scope increased over the full temperature range assessed but in C. longicollis these variables reached a plateau above 22°C. Projected increases in freshwater temperatures in south-eastern Australia as a result of global warming are likely to enhance activity, feeding and growth of the three species (subject to food availability), especially in cooler seasons for C. longicollis and warmer seasons for C. expansa and E. macquarii. However, other aspects of predicted climate change, especially increased drought, are likely to be detrimental.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.

Unpacking the mechanisms captured by a correlative species distribution model to improve predictions of climate refugia

Climate refugia are regions that animals can retreat to, persist in and potentially then expand from under changing environmental conditions. Most forecasts of climate change refugia for species are based on correlative species distribution models (SDMs) using long-term climate averages, projected to future climate scenarios. Limitations of such methods include the need to extrapolate into novel environments and uncertainty regarding the extent to which proximate variables included in the model capture processes driving distribution limits (and thus can be assumed to provide reliable predictions under new conditions). These limitations are well documented; however, their impact on the quality of climate refugia predictions is difficult to quantify. Here, we develop a detailed bioenergetics model for the koala. It indicates that range limits are driven by heat-induced water stress, with the timing of rainfall and heat waves limiting the koala in the warmer parts of its range. We compare refugia predictions from the bioenergetics model with predictions from a suite of competing correlative SDMs under a range of future climate scenarios. SDMs were fitted using combinations of long-term climate and weather extremes variables, to test how well each set of predictions captures the knowledge embedded in the bioenergetics model. Correlative models produced broadly similar predictions to the bioenergetics model across much of the species' current range - with SDMs that included weather extremes showing highest congruence. However, predictions in some regions diverged significantly when projecting to future climates due to the breakdown in correlation between climate variables. We provide unique insight into the mechanisms driving koala distribution and illustrate the importance of subtle relationships between the timing of weather events, particularly rain relative to hot-spells, in driving species-climate relationships and distributions. By unpacking the mechanisms captured by correlative SDMs, we can increase our certainty in forecasts of climate change impacts on species.

Validation of a Mechanistic Model for Non-Invasive Study of Ecological Energetics in an Endangered Wading Bird with Counter-Current Heat Exchange in its Legs

Mechanistic models provide a powerful, minimally invasive tool for gaining a deeper understanding of the ecology of animals across geographic space and time. In this paper, we modified and validated the accuracy of the mechanistic model Niche Mapper for simulating heat exchanges of animals with counter-current heat exchange mechanisms in their legs and animals that wade in water. We then used Niche Mapper to explore the effects of wading and counter-current heat exchange on the energy expenditures of Whooping Cranes, a long-legged wading bird. We validated model accuracy against the energy expenditure of two captive Whooping Cranes measured using the doubly-labeled water method and time energy budgets. Energy expenditure values modeled by Niche Mapper were similar to values measured by the doubly-labeled water method and values estimated from time-energy budgets. Future studies will be able to use Niche Mapper as a non-invasive tool to explore energy-based limits to the fundamental niche of Whooping Cranes and apply this knowledge to management decisions. Basic questions about the importance of counter-current exchange and wading to animal physiological tolerances can also now be explored with the model.

The actively foraging desert lizard Pedioplanis husabensis (Husab Sand Lizard) behaviorally optimizes its energetic economy

The Husab Sand Lizard (Pedioplanis husabensis Berger-Dell’Mour and Mayer, 1989) is a recently described lacertid lizard endemic to a small region in the central Namib Desert. Although this species is of conservation concern, very little is known about how this lizard functions in its environment. We used the doubly labeled water method to measure the field energetics in this lizard species and we report on its foraging behavior. Pedioplanis husabensis had summer field metabolic rates (330 ± 140 J·d−1) that were similar to those of other similarly sized sit-and-wait foraging lizards (360 J·d−1), but only 43% that of an active foraging lizard of the same mass (770 J·d−1), despite using a movement-intensive, active foraging strategy. Additionally, the mean water influx rate (0.06 ± 0.03 mL·d−1) was 67% that of a desert reptile of the same size (0.09 mL·d−1). Active body temperatures were significantly lower in summer (34.3 ± 1.7 °C) than they were in autumn (36.8 ± 1.6 °C), and daily activity of lizards increased from 2.6 ± 0.9 h·d−1 in summer to 4.3 ± 1.9 h·d−1 in autumn. Relative to other species of actively foraging desert lizards, P. husabensis has lower energy requirements.

Reversing defaunation: restoring species in a changing world

The rate of biodiversity loss is not slowing despite global commitments, and the depletion of animal species can reduce the stability of ecological communities. Despite this continued loss, some substantial progress in reversing defaunation is being achieved through the intentional movement of animals to restore populations. We review the full spectrum of conservation translocations, from reinforcement and reintroduction to controversial conservation introductions that seek to restore populations outside their indigenous range or to introduce ecological replacements for extinct forms. We place the popular, but misunderstood, concept of rewilding within this framework and consider the future role of new technical developments such as de-extinction.

Applications and implications of ecological energetics

The ecological processes that are crucial to an animal's growth, survival, and reproductive fitness have energetic costs. The imperative for an animal to meet these costs within the energetic constraints of the environment drives many aspects of animal ecology and evolution, yet has largely been overlooked in traditional ecological paradigms. The field of 'ecological energetics' is bringing comparative physiology out of the laboratory and, for the first time, is becoming broadly accessible to field ecologists addressing real-world questions at many spatial and temporal scales. In an era of unprecedented global environmental challenges, ecological energetics opens up the tantalising prospect of a more predictive, mechanistic understanding of the drivers of threatened species decline, delivering process-based modelling approaches to natural resource management.