Molecular Epidemiology of Dengue in Panama: 25 Years of Circulation

Temporal trends of dengue cases and deaths from 2007 to 2020 in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Dengue, a disease with multifactorial determinants, is linked to population susceptibility to circulating viruses and the extent of vector infestation. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of dengue cases and deaths in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil, from 2007 to 2020. Data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan) were utilized for the investigation. To assess the disease's progression over the study period and predict its future incidence, time series analyses were conducted using a generalized additive model (GAM) and a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Over the study period, a total of 463,566 dengue cases and 125 deaths were reported. Notably, there was an increase in severe cases and deaths, marking hyperendemics characterized by simultaneous virus circulation (79.17% in 2016-50% in 2019). The generalized additive model revealed a non-linear pattern with epidemic peaks in 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2019, indicating an explosive pattern of dengue incidence. The SARIMA (3,1,1) (0,0,0)12 model was validated for each year (2015 to 2019). Comparing the actual and predicted numbers of dengue cases, the model demonstrated its effectiveness for predicting cases in the municipality. The rising number of dengue cases emphasizes the importance of vector surveillance and control. Enhanced models and predictions by local health services will aid in anticipating necessary control measures to combat future epidemics.

Phylogenetics, Epidemiology and Temporal Patterns of Dengue Virus in Araraquara, São Paulo State

Dengue virus (DENV) is a prominent arbovirus with global spread, causing approximately 390 million infections each year. In Brazil, yearly epidemics follow a well-documented pattern of serotype replacement every three to four years on average. Araraquara, located in the state of São Paulo, has faced significant impacts from DENV epidemics since the emergence of DENV-1 in 2010. The municipality then transitioned from low to moderate endemicity in less than 10 years. Yet, there remains an insufficient understanding of virus circulation dynamics, particularly concerning DENV-1, in the region, as well as the genetic characteristics of the virus. To address this, we sequenced 37 complete or partial DENV-1 genomes sampled from 2015 to 2022 in Araraquara. Then, using also Brazilian and worldwide DENV-1 sequences we reconstructed the evolutionary history of DENV-1 in Araraquara and estimated the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) for serotype 1, for genotype V and its main lineages. Within the last ten years, there have been at least three introductions of genotype V in Araraquara, distributed in two main lineages (L Ia and L Ib, and L II). The tMRCA for the first sampled lineage (2015/2016 epidemics) was approximately 15 years ago (in 2008). Crucially, our analysis challenges existing assumptions regarding the emergence time of the DENV-1 genotypes, suggesting that genotype V might have diverged more recently than previously described. The presence of the two lineages of genotype V in the municipality might have contributed to the extended persistence of DENV-1 in the region.

Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of Madariaga and Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus infections

Madariaga virus (MADV) and Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) are emerging arboviruses affecting rural and remote areas of Latin America. However, there are limited clinical and epidemiological reports available, and outbreaks are occurring at an increasing frequency. We addressed this gap by analyzing all the available clinical and epidemiological data of MADV and VEEV infections recorded since 1961 in Panama. A total of 168 of human alphavirus encephalitis cases were detected in Panama from 1961 to 2023. Here we describe the clinical signs and symptoms and epidemiological characteristics of these cases, and also explored signs and symptoms as potential predictors of encephalitic alphavirus infection when compared to those of other arbovirus infections occurring in the region. Our results highlight the challenges clinical diagnosis of alphavirus disease in endemic regions with overlapping circulation of multiple arboviruses.

Insight into the seroepidemiology and dynamics of circulating serotypes of dengue virus over a 4 year period in western Uttar Pradesh, India

An important public health problem in India is dengue infection, with every year seeing an increase in cases of dengue fever. Dengue affects all individuals irrespective of their gender and age, although the infection rate is higher among males and younger people. Despite low severity in general, dengue virus can cause severe health conditions in some individuals. Genetic characterization of circulating endemic dengue virus (DENV) serotypes plays a significant role in providing epidemiological knowledge and subsequent vaccine development. In the present study, over a 4 year period, we assessed DENV transmission dynamics in major regions of western Uttar Pradesh in North India. ELISA tests were used to diagnose dengue, and PCRs were used to determine the circulating serotype. We found that dengue infection peaks after the rainy season and affects all sexes and ages. A total of 1277 individuals were found positive for dengue; among them, 61.7 % were male and 38.3 % were female. DEN-1 was found in 23.12 %, DEN-2 in 45 %, DEN-3 in 29.06 % and DEN-4 in 1.5 % of the dengue-infected individuals. All four DENV serotypes were circulating in the study area, and DENV serotype-2 (DEN-2) was the most prevalent serotype.

Hantavirus in Panama: Twenty Years of Epidemiological Surveillance Experience

Twenty years have passed since the emergence of hantavirus zoonosis in Panama at the beginning of this millennium. We provide an overview of epidemiological surveillance of hantavirus disease (hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and hantavirus fever) during the period 1999-2019 by including all reported and confirmed cases according to the case definition established by the health authority. Our findings reveal that hantavirus disease is a low-frequency disease, affecting primarily young people, with a relatively low case-fatality rate compared to other hantaviruses in the Americas (e.g., ANDV and SNV). It presents an annual variation with peaks every 4-5 years and an interannual variation influenced by agricultural activities. Hantavirus disease is endemic in about 27% of Panama, which corresponds to agroecological conditions that favor the population dynamics of the rodent host, Oligoryzomys costaricensis and the virus (Choclo orthohantavirus) responsible for hantavirus disease. However, this does not rule out the existence of other endemic areas to be characterized. Undoubtedly, decentralization of the laboratory test and dissemination of evidence-based surveillance guidelines and regulations have standardized and improved diagnosis, notification at the level of the primary care system, and management in intensive care units nationwide.

Using compartmental models and Particle Swarm Optimization to assess Dengue basic reproduction number R 0 for the Republic of Panama in the 1999-2022 period

Nowadays, the ability to make data-driven decisions in public health is of utmost importance. To achieve this, it is necessary for modelers to comprehend the impact of models on the future state of healthcare systems. Compartmental models are a valuable tool for making informed epidemiological decisions, and the proper parameterization of these models is crucial for analyzing epidemiological events. This work evaluated the use of compartmental models in conjunction with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to determine optimal solutions and understand the dynamics of Dengue epidemics. The focus was on calculating and evaluating the rate of case reproduction, R 0 , for the Republic of Panama. Three compartmental models were compared: Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR), Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR), and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Human-Susceptible-Infected Vector (SIR Human-SI Vector, SIR-SI). The models were informed by demographic data and Dengue incidence in the Republic of Panama between 1999 and 2022, and the susceptible population was analyzed. The SIR, SEIR, and SIR-SI models successfully provided R 0 estimates ranging from 1.09 to 1.74. This study provides, to the best of our understanding, the first calculation of R 0 for Dengue outbreaks in the Republic of Panama.

Epidemiological and genomic analysis of dengue cases in Guangzhou, China, from 2010 to 2019

With a long epidemic history and a large number of dengue cases, Guangzhou is a key city for controlling dengue in China. The demographic information regarding dengue cases, and the genomic characteristics of the envelope gene of dengue viruses, as well as the associations between these factors were investigated from 2010 to 2019, to improve the understanding of the epidemiology of dengue in Guangzhou. Demographic data on 44,385 dengue cases reported to the Notifiable Infectious Disease Report System were analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics v. 20. Dengue virus isolates from patient sera were sequenced, and phylogenetic trees were constructed using PhyML 3.1. There was no statistical difference in the risk of dengue infection between males and females. Unlike other areas in which dengue is endemic, the infection risk in Guangzhou increased with age. Surveillance identified four serotypes responsible for dengue infections in Guangzhou. Serotype 1 remained prevalent for most of the study period, whereas serotypes 3 and 4 were prevalent in 2012 and 2010, respectively. Different serotypes underwent genotype and sublineage shifts. The epidemiological characteristics and phylogeny of dengue in Guangzhou suggested that although it has circulated in Guangzhou for decades, it has not been endemic in Guangzhou. Meanwhile, shifts in genotypes, rather than in serotypes, might have caused dengue epidemics in Guangzhou.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue-related deaths and associated factors

Since the reintroduction of dengue viruses in 1987, Sao Paulo State (SP), Brazil, has experienced recurrent epidemics in a growing number of municipalities, each time with more cases and deaths. In the present study, we investigated the spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue-related deaths and associated factors in SP. This was an ecological study with spatial and temporal components, based on notified dengue-related deaths in the municipalities of SP between 2007 and 2017. A latent Gaussian Bayesian model with Poisson probability distribution was used to estimate the standardized mortality ratios (SMR) for dengue and relative risks (RR) for the socioeconomic, demographic, healthcare-related, and epidemiological factors considered. Epidemiological factors included the annual information on the number of circulating serotypes. A total of 1,019 dengue-related deaths (0.22 per 100,000 inhabitant-years) between 2007 and 2017 were confirmed in SP by laboratory testing. Mortality increased with age, peaking at 70 years or older (1.41 deaths per 100,000 inhabitant-years). Mortality was highest in 2015, and the highest SMR values were found in the North, Northwest, West, and coastal regions of SP. An increase of one circulating serotype, one standard deviation in the number of years with cases, and one standard deviation in the degree of urbanization were associated with increases of 75, 35, and 45% in the risk of death from dengue, respectively. The risk of death from dengue increased with age, and the distribution of deaths was heterogeneous in space and time. The positive relationship found between the number of dengue serotypes circulating and years with cases at the municipality/micro-region level indicates that this information can be used to identify risk areas, intensify surveillance and control measures, and organize healthcare to better respond to this disease.

The Impact of Deforestation, Urbanization, and Changing Land Use Patterns on the Ecology of Mosquito and Tick-Borne Diseases in Central America

Central America is a unique geographical region that connects North and South America, enclosed by the Caribbean Sea to the East, and the Pacific Ocean to the West. This region, encompassing Belize, Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, and Nicaragua, is highly vulnerable to the emergence or resurgence of mosquito-borne and tick-borne diseases due to a combination of key ecological and socioeconomic determinants acting together, often in a synergistic fashion. Of particular interest are the effects of land use changes, such as deforestation-driven urbanization and forest degradation, on the incidence and prevalence of these diseases, which are not well understood. In recent years, parts of Central America have experienced social and economic improvements; however, the region still faces major challenges in developing effective strategies and significant investments in public health infrastructure to prevent and control these diseases. In this article, we review the current knowledge and potential impacts of deforestation, urbanization, and other land use changes on mosquito-borne and tick-borne disease transmission in Central America and how these anthropogenic drivers could affect the risk for disease emergence and resurgence in the region. These issues are addressed in the context of other interconnected environmental and social challenges.

Case Report: First Confirmed Case of Coinfection of SARS-CoV-2 With Choclo orthohantavirus

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a major international public health concern. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on March 11, 2020. In Panama, the first SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed on March 9, 2020, and the first fatal case associated to COVID-19 was reported on March 10. This report presents the case of a 44-year-old female who arrived at the hospital with a respiratory failure, five days after the first fatal COVID-19 case, and who was living in a region where hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases caused by Choclo orthohantavirus (CHOV), are prevalent. Thus, the clinical personnel set a differential diagnosis to determine a respiratory disease caused by the endemic CHOV or the new pandemic SARS-CoV-2. This case investigation describes the first coinfection by SARS-CoV-2 and CHOV worldwide. PCR detected both viruses during early stages of the disease and the genomic sequences were obtained. The presence of antibodies was determined during the patient’s hospitalization. After 23 days at the intensive care unit, the patient survived with no sequelae, and antibodies against CHOV and SARS-CoV-2 were still detectable 12 months after the disease. The detection of the coinfection in this patient highlights the importance, during a pandemic, of complementing the testing and diagnosis of the emergent agent, SARS-CoV-2, with other common endemic respiratory pathogens and other zoonotic pathogens, like CHOV, in regions where they are of public health concern.

Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City

The present analysis uses the data of confirmed incidence of dengue cases in the metropolitan region of Panama from 1999 to 2017 and climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) during the same period to determine if there exists a correlation between these variables. In addition, we compare the predictive performance of two regression models (SARIMA, SARIMAX) and a recurrent neural network model (RNN-LSTM) on the dengue incidence series. For this data from 1999–2014 was used for training and the three subsequent years of incidence 2015–2017 were used for prediction. The results show a correlation coefficient between the climatic variables and the incidence of dengue were low but statistical significant. The RMSE and MAPE obtained for the SARIMAX and RNN-LSTM models were 25.76, 108.44 and 26.16, 59.68, which suggest that any of these models can be used to predict new outbreaks. Although, it can be said that there is a limited role of climatic variables in the outputs the models. The value of this work is that it helps understand the behaviour of cases in a tropical setting as is the Metropolitan Region of Panama City, and provides the basis needed for a much needed early alert system for the region.

Dengue virus in humans and mosquitoes and their molecular characteristics in northeastern Thailand 2016-2018

Dengue is hyperendemic in most Southeast Asian countries including Thailand, where all four dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 to -4) have circulated over different periods and regions. Despite dengue cases being annually reported in all regions of Thailand, there is limited data on the relationship of epidemic DENV infection between humans and mosquitoes, and about the dynamics of DENV during outbreaks in the northeastern region. The present study was conducted in this region to investigate the molecular epidemiology of DENV and explore the relationships of DENV infection in humans and in mosquitoes during 2016–2018. A total of 292 dengue suspected patients from 11 hospitals and 902 individual mosquitoes (at patient’s houses and neighboring houses) were recruited and investigated for DENV serotypes infection using PCR. A total of 103 patients and 149 individual mosquitoes were DENV -positive. Among patients, the predominant DENV serotypes in 2016 and 2018 were DENV-4 (74%) and DENV-3 (53%) respectively, whereas in 2017, DENV-1, -3 and -4 had similar prevalence (38%). Additionally, only 19% of DENV infections in humans and mosquitoes at surrounding houses were serotypically matched, while 81% of infections were serotypically mismatched, suggesting that mosquitoes outside the residence may be an important factor of endemic dengue transmission. Phylogenetic analyses based on envelope gene sequences showed the genotype I of both DENV-1 and DENV-4, and co-circulation of the Cosmopolitan and Asian I genotypes of DENV-2. These strains were closely related to concurrent strains in other parts of Thailand and also similar to strains in previous epidemiological profiles in Thailand and elsewhere in Southeast Asia. These findings highlight genomic data of DENV in this region and suggest that people’s movement in urban environments may result in mosquitoes far away from the residential area being key determinants of DENV epidemic dynamics.

Mass Cytometry Analysis of the NK Cell Receptor-Ligand Repertoire Reveals Unique Differences between Dengue-Infected Children and Adults

Dengue virus (DENV) is a significant cause of morbidity in many regions of the world, with children at the greatest risk of developing severe dengue. NK cells, characterized by their ability to rapidly recognize and kill virally infected cells, are activated during acute DENV infection. However, their role in viral clearance versus pathogenesis has not been fully elucidated. Our goal was to profile the NK cell receptor-ligand repertoire to provide further insight into the function of NK cells during pediatric and adult DENV infection. We used mass cytometry to phenotype isolate NK cells and PBMCs from a cohort of DENV-infected children and adults. Using unsupervised clustering, we found that pediatric DENV infection leads to a decrease in total NK cell frequency with a reduction in the percentage of CD56dimCD38bright NK cells and an increase in the percentage of CD56dimperforinbright NK cells. No such changes were observed in adults. Next, we identified markers predictive of DENV infection using a differential state test. In adults, NK cell expression of activation markers, including CD69, perforin, and Fas-L, and myeloid cell expression of activating NK cell ligands, namely Fas, were predictive of infection. In contrast, increased NK cell expression of the maturation marker CD57 and myeloid cell expression of inhibitory ligands, such as HLA class I molecules, were predictive of pediatric DENV infection. These findings suggest that acute pediatric DENV infection may result in diminished NK cell activation, which could contribute to enhanced pathogenesis and disease severity.