Increased susceptibility to drought-induced mortality in Sequoia sempervirens (Cupressaceae) trees under Cenozoic atmospheric carbon dioxide starvation

Precipitation pattern changed the content of non-structural carbohydrates components in different organs of Artemisia ordosica

BACKGROUND

Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) play a significant role in plant growth and defense and are an important component of carbon cycling in desert ecosystems. However, regarding global change scenarios, it remains unclear how NSCs in desert plants respond to changing precipitation patterns. [Methods] Three precipitation levels (natural precipitation, a 30% reduction in precipitation, and a 30% increase in precipitation) and two precipitation intervals levels (5 and 15 d) were simulated to study NSC (soluble sugar and starch) responses in the dominant shrub Artemisia ordosica.

RESULTS

Precipitation level and interval interact to affect the NSC (both soluble sugar and starch components) content of A. ordosica. The effect of precipitation on NSC content and its components depended on extended precipitation interval. With lower precipitation and extended interval, soluble sugar content in roots increased and starch content decreased, indicating that A. ordosica adapts to external environmental changes by hydrolyzing root starch into soluble sugars. At 5 d interval, lower precipitation increased the NSC content of stems and especially roots.

CONCLUSIONS

A. ordosica follows the "preferential allocation principle" to preferentially transport NSC to growing organs, which is an adaptive strategy to maintain a healthy physiological metabolism under drought conditions. The findings help understand the adaptation and survival mechanisms of desert vegetation under the changing precipitation patterns and are important in exploring the impact of carbon cycling in desert systems under global environmental change.

Global variation in nonstructural carbohydrate stores in response to climate

Woody plant species store nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) for many functions. While known to buffer against fluctuations in photosynthetic supply, such as at night, NSC stores are also thought to buffer against environmental extremes, such as drought or freezing temperatures by serving as either back-up energy reserves or osmolytes. However, a clear picture of how NSCs are shaped by climate is still lacking. Here, we update and leverage a unique global database of seasonal NSC storage measurements to examine whether maximum total NSC stores and the amount of soluble sugars are associated with clinal patterns in low temperatures or aridity, indicating they may confer a benefit under freezing or drought conditions. We examine patterns using the average climate at each study site and the unique climatic conditions at the time and place in which the sample was taken. Altogether, our results support the idea that NSC stores act as critical osmolytes. Soluble Sugars increase with both colder and drier conditions in aboveground tissues, indicating they can plastically increase a plants' tolerance of cold or arid conditions. However, maximum total NSCs increased, rather than decreased, with average site temperature and had no relationship to average site aridity. This result suggests that the total amount of NSC a plant stores may be more strongly determined by its capacity to assimilate carbon than by environmental stress. Thus, NSCs are unlikely to serve as reservoir of energy. This study is the most comprehensive synthesis to date of global NSC variation in relation to climate and supports the idea that NSC stores likely serve as buffers against environmental stress. By clarifying their role in cold and drought tolerance, we improve our ability to predict plant response to environment.

Processes and mechanisms of coastal woody-plant mortality

Observations of woody plant mortality in coastal ecosystems are globally widespread, but the overarching processes and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. This knowledge deficiency, combined with rapidly changing water levels, storm surges, atmospheric CO₂ , and vapor pressure deficit, creates large predictive uncertainty regarding how coastal ecosystems will respond to global change. Here, we synthesize the literature on the mechanisms that underlie coastal woody-plant mortality, with the goal of producing a testable hypothesis framework. The key emergent mechanisms underlying mortality include hypoxic, osmotic, and ionic-driven reductions in whole-plant hydraulic conductance and photosynthesis that ultimately drive the coupled processes of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. The relative importance of these processes in driving mortality, their order of progression, and their degree of coupling depends on the characteristics of the anomalous water exposure, on topographic effects, and on taxa-specific variation in traits and trait acclimation. Greater inundation exposure could accelerate mortality globally; however, the interaction of changing inundation exposure with elevated CO₂ , drought, and rising vapor pressure deficit could influence mortality likelihood. Models of coastal forests that incorporate the frequency and duration of inundation, the role of climatic drivers, and the processes of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation can yield improved estimates of inundation-induced woody-plant mortality.

Plant carbohydrate storage: intra- and inter-specific trade-offs reveal a major life history trait

Trade-offs among carbon sinks constrain how trees physiologically, ecologically, and evolutionarily respond to their environments. These trade-offs typically fall along a productive growth to conservative, bet-hedging continuum. How nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) stored in living tree cells (known as carbon stores) fit in this trade-off framework is not well understood. We examined relationships between growth and storage using both within species genetic variation from a common garden, and across species phenotypic variation from a global database. We demonstrate that storage is actively accumulated, as part of a conservative, bet-hedging life history strategy. Storage accumulates at the expense of growth both within and across species. Within the species Populus trichocarpa, genetic trade-offs show that for each additional unit of wood area growth (in cm²  yr^-1 ) that genotypes invest in, they lose 1.2 to 1.7 units (mg g^-1 NSC) of storage. Across species, for each additional unit of area growth (in cm²  yr^-1 ), trees, on average, reduce their storage by 9.5% in stems and 10.4% in roots. Our findings impact our understanding of basic plant biology, fit storage into a widely used growth-survival trade-off spectrum describing life history strategy, and challenges the assumptions of passive storage made in ecosystem models today.

Physiological responses to low CO2 over prolonged drought as primers for forest-grassland transitions

Savannahs dominated by grasses with scattered C₃ trees expanded between 24 and 9 million years ago in low latitudes at the expense of forests. Fire, herbivory, drought and the susceptibility of trees to declining atmospheric CO₂ concentrations ([CO₂]_a) are proposed as key drivers of this transition. The role of disturbance is well studied, but physiological arguments are mostly derived from models and palaeorecords, without direct experimental evidence. In replicated comparative experimental trials, we examined the physiological effects of [CO₂]_a and prolonged drought in a broadleaf forest tree, a savannah tree and a savannah C₄ grass. We show that the forest tree was more disadvantaged than either the savannah tree or the C₄ grass by the low [CO₂]_a and increasing aridity. Our experiments provide insights into the role of the intrinsic physiological susceptibility of trees in priming the disturbance-driven transition from forest to savannah in the conditions of the early Miocene.

A meta-analysis of responses of C3 plants to atmospheric CO2 : dose-response curves for 85 traits ranging from the molecular to the whole-plant level

Generalised dose-response curves are essential to understand how plants acclimate to atmospheric CO₂ . We carried out a meta-analysis of 630 experiments in which C₃ plants were experimentally grown at different [CO₂ ] under relatively benign conditions, and derived dose-response curves for 85 phenotypic traits. These curves were characterised by form, plasticity, consistency and reliability. Considered over a range of 200-1200 µmol mol^-1 CO₂ , some traits more than doubled (e.g. area-based photosynthesis; intrinsic water-use efficiency), whereas others more than halved (area-based transpiration). At current atmospheric [CO₂ ], 64% of the total stimulation in biomass over the 200-1200 µmol mol^-1 range has already been realised. We also mapped the trait responses of plants to [CO₂ ] against those we have quantified before for light intensity. For most traits, CO₂ and light responses were of similar direction. However, some traits (such as reproductive effort) only responded to light, others (such as plant height) only to [CO₂ ], and some traits (such as area-based transpiration) responded in opposite directions. This synthesis provides a comprehensive picture of plant responses to [CO₂ ] at different integration levels and offers the quantitative dose-response curves that can be used to improve global change simulation models.

Declining carbohydrate content of Sitka-spruce treesdying from seawater exposure

Increasing sea levels associated with climate change threaten the survival of coastal forests, yet the mechanisms by which seawater exposure causes tree death remain poorly understood. Despite the potentially crucial role of nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) reserves in tree survival, their dynamics in the process of death under seawater exposure are unknown. Here we monitored progressive tree mortality and associated NSC storage in Sitka-spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees dying under ecosystem-scale increases in seawater exposure in western Washington, USA. All trees exposed to seawater, because of monthly tidal intrusion, experienced declining crown foliage during the sampling period, and individuals with a lower percentage of live foliated crown (PLFC) died faster. Tree PLFC was strongly correlated with subsurface salinity and needle ion contents. Total NSC concentrations in trees declined remarkably with crown decline, and reached extremely low levels at tree death (2.4% and 1.6% in leaves and branches, respectively, and 0.4% in stems and roots). Starch in all tissues was almost completely consumed, while sugars remained at a homeostatic level in foliage. The decreasing NSC with closer proximity to death and near zero starch at death are evidences that carbon starvation occurred during Sitka-spruce mortality during seawater exposure. Our results highlight the importance of carbon storage as an indicator of tree mortality risks under seawater exposure.

A New Perspective on Ecological Prediction Reveals Limits to Climate Adaptation in a Temperate Tree Species

Forests absorb a large fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emission, but their ability to continue to act as a sink under climate change depends in part on plant species undergoing rapid adaptation. Yet models of forest response to climate change currently ignore local adaptation as a response mechanism. Thus, considering the evolution of intraspecific trait variation is necessary for reliable, long-term species and climate projections. Here, we combine ecophysiology and predictive climate modeling with analyses of genomic variation to determine whether sugar and starch storage, energy reserves for trees under extreme conditions, have the heritable variation and genetic diversity necessary to evolve in response to climate change within populations of black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa). Despite current patterns of local adaptation and extensive range-wide heritable variation in storage, we demonstrate that adaptive evolution in response to climate change will be limited by a lack of heritable variation within northern populations and by a need for extreme genetic changes in southern populations. Our method can help design more targeted species management interventions and highlights the power of using genomic tools in ecological prediction to scale from molecular to regional processes to determine the ability of a species to respond to future climates.

Response of photosynthesis, growth and water relations of a savannah-adapted tree and grass grown across high to low CO2

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

By the year 2100, atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]a) could reach 800 ppm, having risen from ~200 ppm since the Neogene, beginning ~24 Myr ago. Changing [CO2]a affects plant carbon-water balance, with implications for growth, drought tolerance and vegetation shifts. The evolution of C4 photosynthesis improved plant hydraulic function under low [CO2]a and preluded the establishment of savannahs, characterized by rapid transitions between open C4-dominated grassland with scattered trees and closed forest. Understanding directional vegetation trends in response to environmental change will require modelling. But models are often parameterized with characteristics observed in plants under current climatic conditions, necessitating experimental quantification of the mechanistic underpinnings of plant acclimation to [CO2]a.

METHODS

We measured growth, photosynthesis and plant-water relations, within wetting-drying cycles, of a C3 tree (Vachellia karroo, an acacia) and a C4 grass (Eragrostis curvula) grown at 200, 400 or 800 ppm [CO2]a. We investigated the mechanistic linkages between trait responses to [CO2]a under moderate soil drying, and photosynthetic characteristics.

KEY RESULTS

For V. karroo, higher [CO2]a increased assimilation, foliar carbon:nitrogen, biomass and leaf starch, but decreased stomatal conductance and root starch. For Eragrostis, higher [CO2]a decreased C:N, did not affect assimilation, biomass or starch, and markedly decreased stomatal conductance. Together, this meant that C4 advantages in efficient water-use over the tree were maintained with rising [CO2]a.

CONCLUSIONS

Acacia and Eragrostis acclimated differently to [CO2]a, with implications for their respective responses to water limitation and environmental change. Our findings question the carbon-centric focus on factors limiting assimilation with changing [CO2]a, how they are predicted and their role in determining productivity. We emphasize the continuing importance of water-conserving strategies in the assimilation response of savannah plants to rising [CO2]a.

Human impacts in African savannas are mediated by plant functional traits

Tropical savannas have a ground cover dominated by C₄ grasses, with fire and herbivory constraining woody cover below a rainfall-based potential. The savanna biome covers 50% of the African continent, encompassing diverse ecosystems that include densely wooded Miombo woodlands and Serengeti grasslands with scattered trees. African savannas provide water, grazing and browsing, food and fuel for tens of millions of people, and have a unique biodiversity that supports wildlife tourism. However, human impacts are causing widespread and accelerating degradation of savannas. The primary threats are land cover-change and transformation, landscape fragmentation that disrupts herbivore communities and fire regimes, climate change and rising atmospheric CO₂ . The interactions among these threats are poorly understood, with unknown consequences for ecosystem health and human livelihoods. We argue that the unique combinations of plant functional traits characterizing the major floristic assemblages of African savannas make them differentially susceptible and resilient to anthropogenic drivers of ecosystem change. Research must address how this functional diversity among African savannas differentially influences their vulnerability to global change and elucidate the mechanisms responsible. This knowledge will permit appropriate management strategies to be developed to maintain ecosystem integrity, biodiversity and livelihoods.

CO2 and temperature effects on morphological and physiological traits affecting risk of drought-induced mortality

Despite a wealth of eco-physiological assessments of plant response to extreme drought, few studies have addressed the interactive effects of global change factors on traits driving mortality. To understand the interaction between hydraulic and carbon metabolic traits influencing tree mortality, which may be independently influenced by atmospheric [CO2] and temperature, we grew Eucalyptus sideroxylon A. Cunn. ex Woolls from seed in a full-factorial [CO2] (280, 400 and 640 μmol mol-1, Cp, Ca and Ce, respectively) and temperature (ambient and ambient +4 °C, Ta and Te, respectively) experiment. Prior to drought, growth across treatment combinations resulted in significant variation in physiological and morphological traits, including photosynthesis (Asat), respiration (Rd), stomatal conductance, carbohydrate storage, biomass and leaf area (LA). Ce increased Asat, LA and leaf carbohydrate concentration compared with Ca, while Cp generated the opposite response; Te reduced Rd. However, upon imposition of drought, Te hastened mortality (9 days sooner compared with Ta), while Ce significantly exacerbated drought stress when combined with Te. Across treatments, earlier time-to-mortality was mainly associated with lower (more negative) leaf water potential (Ψl) during the initial drought phase, along with higher water loss across the first 3 weeks of water limitation. Among many variables, Ψl was more important than carbon status in predicting time-to-mortality across treatments, yet leaf starch was associated with residual variation within treatments. These results highlight the need to carefully consider the integration, interaction and hierarchy of traits contributing to mortality, along with their responses to environmental drivers. Both morphological traits, which influence soil resource extraction, and physiological traits, which affect water-for-carbon exchange to the atmosphere, must be considered to adequately predict plant response to drought. Researchers have struggled with assessing the relative importance of hydraulic and carbon metabolic traits in determining mortality, yet an integrated trait, time-dependent framework provides considerable insight into the risk of death from drought for trees.

Mechanisms of glacial-to-future atmospheric CO2 effects on plant immunity

The impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on plant disease have received increasing attention, but with little consensus emerging on the direct mechanisms by which CO2 shapes plant immunity. Furthermore, the impact of sub-ambient CO2 concentrations, which plants have experienced repeatedly over the past 800 000 yr, has been largely overlooked. A combination of gene expression analysis, phenotypic characterisation of mutants and mass spectrometry-based metabolic profiling was used to determine development-independent effects of sub-ambient CO2 (saCO2 ) and elevated CO2 (eCO2 ) on Arabidopsis immunity. Resistance to the necrotrophic Plectosphaerella cucumerina (Pc) was repressed at saCO2 and enhanced at eCO2 . This CO2 -dependent resistance was associated with priming of jasmonic acid (JA)-dependent gene expression and required intact JA biosynthesis and signalling. Resistance to the biotrophic oomycete Hyaloperonospora arabidopsidis (Hpa) increased at both eCO2 and saCO2 . Although eCO2 primed salicylic acid (SA)-dependent gene expression, mutations affecting SA signalling only partially suppressed Hpa resistance at eCO2 , suggesting additional mechanisms are involved. Induced production of intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) at saCO2 corresponded to a loss of resistance in glycolate oxidase mutants and increased transcription of the peroxisomal catalase gene CAT2, unveiling a mechanism by which photorespiration-derived ROS determined Hpa resistance at saCO2 . By separating indirect developmental impacts from direct immunological effects, we uncover distinct mechanisms by which CO2 shapes plant immunity and discuss their evolutionary significance.

Climate change, nutrition and immunity: Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on the immune function of an insect herbivore

Balanced nutrition is fundamental to health and immunity. For herbivorous insects, nutrient-compositional shifts in host plants due to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature may compromise this balance. Therefore, understanding their immune responses to such shifts is vital if we are to predict the outcomes of climate change for plant-herbivore-parasitoid and pathogen interactions. We tested the immune response of Paropsis atomaria Olivier (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) feeding on Eucalyptus tereticornis Sm. seedlings exposed to elevated CO2 (640 μmol mol(-1); CE) and temperature (ambient plus 4 °C; TE). Larvae were immune-challenged with a nylon monofilament in order to simulate parasitoid or pathogen attack without other effects of actual parasitism or pathology. The cellular (in vivo melanisation) and humoral (in vitro phenoloxidase PO activity) immune responses were assessed, and linked to changes in leaf chemistry. CE reduced foliar nitrogen (N) concentrations and increased C:N ratios and concentrations of total phenolics. The humoral response was reduced at CE. PO activity and haemolymph protein concentrations decreased at CE, while haemolymph protein concentrations were positively correlated with foliar N concentrations. However, the cellular response increased at CE and this was not correlated with any foliar traits. Immune parameters were not impacted by TE. Our study revealed that opposite cellular and humoral immune responses occurred as a result of plant-mediated effects at CE. In contrast, elevated temperatures within the tested range had minimal impact on immune responses. These complex interactions may alter the outcomes of parasitoid and pathogen attack in future climates.

Drought responses of two gymnosperm species with contrasting stomatal regulation strategies under elevated [CO2] and temperature

Future climate regimes characterized by rising [CO2], rising temperatures and associated droughts may differentially affect tree growth and physiology. However, the interactive effects of these three factors are complex because elevated [CO2] and elevated temperature may generate differential physiological responses during drought. To date, the interactive effects of elevated [CO2] and elevated temperature on drought-induced tree mortality remain poorly understood in gymnosperm species that differ in stomatal regulation strategies. Water relations and carbon dynamics were examined in two species with contrasting stomatal regulation strategies: Pinus radiata D. Don (relatively isohydric gymnosperm; regulating stomata to maintain leaf water potential above critical thresholds) and Callitris rhomboidea R. Br (relatively anisohydric gymnosperm; allowing leaf water potential to decline as the soil dries), to assess response to drought as a function of [CO2] and temperature. Both species were grown in two [CO2] (C(a) (ambient, 400 μl l(-1)) and C(e) (elevated, 640 μl l(-1))) and two temperature (T(a) (ambient) and T(e) (ambient +4 °C)) treatments in a sun-lit glasshouse under well-watered conditions. Drought plants were then exposed to a progressive drought until mortality. Prior to mortality, extensive xylem cavitation occurred in both species, but significant depletion of non-structural carbohydrates was not observed in either species. Te resulted in faster mortality in P. radiata, but it did not modify the time-to-mortality in C. rhomboidea. C(e) did not delay the time-to-mortality in either species under drought or T(e) treatments. In summary, elevated temperature (+4 °C) had greater influence than elevated [CO2] (+240 μl l(-1)) on drought responses of the two studied gymnosperm species, while stomatal regulation strategies did not generally affect the relative contributions of hydraulic failure and carbohydrate depletion to mortality under severe drought.

Carbohydrate dynamics and mortality in a piñon-juniper woodland under three future precipitation scenarios

Drought-induced forest mortality is an increasing global problem with wide-ranging consequences, yet mortality mechanisms remain poorly understood. Depletion of non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) stores has been implicated as an important mechanism in drought-induced mortality, but experimental field tests are rare. We used an ecosystem-scale precipitation manipulation experiment to evaluate leaf and twig NSC dynamics of two co-occurring conifers that differ in patterns of stomatal regulation of water loss and recent mortality: the relatively desiccation-avoiding piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and the relatively desiccation-tolerant one-seed juniper (Juniperus monosperma). Piñon pine experienced 72% mortality after 13-25 months of experimental drought and juniper experienced 20% mortality after 32-47 months. Juniper maintained three times more NSC in the foliage than twigs, and converted NSC to glucose and fructose under drought, consistent with osmoregulation requirements to maintain higher stomatal conductance during drought than piñon. Despite these species differences, experimental drought caused decreased leaf starch content in dying trees of both species (P < 0.001). Average dry-season leaf starch content was also a good predictor of drought-survival time for both species (R(2)  = 0.93). These results, along with observations of drought-induced reductions to photosynthesis and growth, support carbon limitation as an important process during mortality of these two conifer species.

Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change

Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS-II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short-term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon-juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought-induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles.

Elevated [CO2] does not ameliorate the negative effects of elevated temperature on drought-induced mortality in Eucalyptus radiata seedlings

It has been reported that elevated temperature accelerates the time-to-mortality in plants exposed to prolonged drought, while elevated [CO(2)] acts as a mitigating factor because it can reduce stomatal conductance and thereby reduce water loss. We examined the interactive effects of elevated [CO(2)] and temperature on the inter-dependent carbon and hydraulic characteristics associated with drought-induced mortality in Eucalyptus radiata seedlings grown in two [CO(2)] (400 and 640 μL L(-1)) and two temperature (ambient and ambient +4 °C) treatments. Seedlings were exposed to two controlled drying and rewatering cycles, and then water was withheld until plants died. The extent of xylem cavitation was assessed as loss of stem hydraulic conductivity. Elevated temperature triggered more rapid mortality than ambient temperature through hydraulic failure, and was associated with larger water use, increased drought sensitivities of gas exchange traits and earlier occurrence of xylem cavitation. Elevated [CO(2)] had a negligible effect on seedling response to drought, and did not ameliorate the negative effects of elevated temperature on drought. Our findings suggest that elevated temperature and consequent higher vapour pressure deficit, but not elevated [CO(2)], may be the primary contributors to drought-induced seedling mortality under future climates.

Evolutionary history underlies plant physiological responses to global change since the last glacial maximum

Assessing family- and species-level variation in physiological responses to global change across geologic time is critical for understanding factors that underlie changes in species distributions and community composition. Here, we used stable carbon isotopes, leaf nitrogen content and stomatal measurements to assess changes in leaf-level physiology in a mixed conifer community that underwent significant changes in composition since the last glacial maximum (LGM) (21 kyr BP). Our results indicate that most plant taxa decreased stomatal conductance and/or maximum photosynthetic capacity in response to changing conditions since the LGM. However, plant families and species differed in the timing and magnitude of these physiological responses, and responses were more similar within families than within co-occurring species assemblages. This suggests that adaptation at the level of leaf physiology may not be the main determinant of shifts in community composition, and that plant evolutionary history may drive physiological adaptation to global change over recent geologic time.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 overrides the historical legacy of multiple stable biome states in Africa

The dominant vegetation over much of the global land surface is not predetermined by contemporary climate, but also influenced by past environmental conditions. This confounds attempts to predict current and future biome distributions, because even a perfect model would project multiple possible biomes without knowledge of the historical vegetation state. Here we compare the distribution of tree- and grass-dominated biomes across Africa simulated using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). We explicitly evaluate where and under what conditions multiple stable biome states are possible for current and projected future climates. Our simulation results show that multiple stable biomes states are possible for vast areas of tropical and subtropical Africa under current conditions. Widespread loss of the potential for multiple stable biomes states is projected in the 21st Century, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 . Many sites where currently both tree-dominated and grass-dominated biomes are possible become deterministically tree-dominated. Regions with multiple stable biome states are widespread and require consideration when attempting to predict future vegetation changes. Testing for behaviour characteristic of systems with multiple stable equilibria, such as hysteresis and dependence on historical conditions, and the resulting uncertainty in simulated vegetation, will lead to improved projections of global change impacts.

Fires in the Cenozoic: a late flowering of flammable ecosystems

Modern flammable ecosystems include tropical and subtropical savannas, steppe grasslands, boreal forests, and temperate sclerophyll shrublands. Despite the apparent fiery nature of much contemporary vegetation, terrestrial fossil evidence would suggest we live in a time of low fire activity relative to the deep past. The inertinite content of coal, fossil charcoal, is strikingly low from the Eocene to the Pleistocene and no charcoalified mesofossils have been reported for the Cenozoic. Marine cores have been analyzed for charcoal in the North Pacific, the north and south Atlantic off Africa, and the south China sea. These tell a different story with the oldest records indicating low levels of fire activity from the Eocene but a surge of fire from the late Miocene (~7 Ma). Phylogenetic studies of woody plants adapted to frequent savanna fires show them beginning to appear from the Late Miocene with peak origins in the late Pliocene in both South American and African lineages. Phylogenetic studies indicate ancient origins (60 Ma+) for clades characteristic of flammable sclerophyll vegetation from Australia and the Cape region of South Africa. However, as for savannas, there was a surge of speciation from the Late Miocene associated with the retreat of closed fire-intolerant forests. The wide geographic spread of increased fire activity in the last few million years suggests a global cause. However, none of the potential global factors (oxygen, rainfall seasonality, CO2, novel flammable growth forms) provides an adequate explanation as yet. The global patterns and processes of fire and flammable vegetation in the Cenozoic, especially since the Late Miocene, deserve much more attention to better understand fire in the earth system.

Effects of elevated temperature and CO2 on aboveground-belowground systems: a case study with plants, their mutualistic bacteria and root/shoot herbivores

Interactions between above- and belowground herbivores have been prominent in the field of aboveground-belowground ecology from the outset, although little is known about how climate change affects these organisms when they share the same plant. Additionally, the interactive effects of multiple factors associated with climate change such as elevated temperature (eT) and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) are untested. We investigated how eT and eCO2 affected larval development of the lucerne weevil (Sitona discoideus) and colonization by the pea aphid (Acyrthosiphon pisum), on three cultivars of a common host plant, lucerne (Medicago sativa). Sitona discoideus larvae feed on root nodules housing N2-fixing rhizobial bacteria, allowing us to test the effects of eT and eCO2 across trophic levels. Moreover, we assessed the influence of these factors on plant growth. eT increased plant growth rate initially (6, 8 and 10 weeks after sowing), with cultivar "Sequel" achieving the greatest height. Inoculation with aphids, however, reduced plant growth at week 14. eT severely reduced root nodulation by 43%, whereas eCO2 promoted nodulation by 56%, but only at ambient temperatures. Weevil presence increased net root biomass and nodulation, by 31 and 45%, respectively, showing an overcompensatory plant growth response. Effects of eT and eCO2 on root nodulation were mirrored by weevil larval development; eT and eCO2 reduced and increased larval development, respectively. Contrary to expectations, aphid colonization was unaffected by eT or eCO2, but there was a near-significant 10% reduction in colonization rates on plants with weevils present belowground. The contrasting effects of eT and eCO2 on weevils potentially occurred through changes in root nodulation patterns.

Evaluating theories of drought-induced vegetation mortality using a multimodel-experiment framework

Model-data comparisons of plant physiological processes provide an understanding of mechanisms underlying vegetation responses to climate. We simulated the physiology of a piñon pine-juniper woodland (Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma) that experienced mortality during a 5 yr precipitation-reduction experiment, allowing a framework with which to examine our knowledge of drought-induced tree mortality. We used six models designed for scales ranging from individual plants to a global level, all containing state-of-the-art representations of the internal hydraulic and carbohydrate dynamics of woody plants. Despite the large range of model structures, tuning, and parameterization employed, all simulations predicted hydraulic failure and carbon starvation processes co-occurring in dying trees of both species, with the time spent with severe hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, rather than absolute thresholds per se, being a better predictor of impending mortality. Model and empirical data suggest that limited carbon and water exchanges at stomatal, phloem, and below-ground interfaces were associated with mortality of both species. The model-data comparison suggests that the introduction of a mechanistic process into physiology-based models provides equal or improved predictive power over traditional process-model or empirical thresholds. Both biophysical and empirical modeling approaches are useful in understanding processes, particularly when the models fail, because they reveal mechanisms that are likely to underlie mortality. We suggest that for some ecosystems, integration of mechanistic pathogen models into current vegetation models, and evaluation against observations, could result in a breakthrough capability to simulate vegetation dynamics.

Increasing atmospheric [CO2] from glacial to future concentrations affects drought tolerance via impacts on leaves, xylem and their integrated function

Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) affect plant carbon/water tradeoffs, with implications for drought tolerance. Leaf-level studies often indicate that drought tolerance may increase with rising [CO2], but integrated leaf and xylem responses are not well understood in this respect. In addition, the influence of the low [CO2] of the last glacial period on drought tolerance and xylem properties is not well understood. We investigated the interactive effects of a broad range of [CO2] and plant water potentials on leaf function, xylem structure and function and the integration of leaf and xylem function in Phaseolus vulgaris. Elevated [CO2] decreased vessel implosion strength, reduced conduit-specific hydraulic conductance, and compromised leaf-specific xylem hydraulic conductance under moderate drought. By contrast, at glacial [CO2], transpiration was maintained under moderate drought via greater conduit-specific and leaf-specific hydraulic conductance in association with increased vessel implosion strength. Our study involving the integration of leaf and xylem responses suggests that increasing [CO2] does not improve drought tolerance. We show that, under glacial conditions, changes in leaf and xylem properties could increase drought tolerance, while under future conditions, greater productivity may only occur when higher water use can be accommodated.

Buffering growth variations against water deficits through timely carbon usage

Water stresses reduce plant growth but there is no consensus on whether carbon metabolism has any role in this reduction. Sugar starvation resulting from stomatal closure is often proposed as a cause of growth impairment under long-term or severe water deficits. However, growth decreases faster than photosynthesis in response to drought, leading to increased carbohydrate stores under short-term or moderate water deficits. Here, we addressed the question of the role of carbon availability on growth under moderate water deficits using two different systems. Firstly, we monitored the day/night pattern of leaf growth in Arabidopsis plants. We show that a moderate soil water deficit promotes leaf growth at night in mutants severely disrupted in their nighttime carbohydrate availability. This suggests that soil water deficit promotes carbon satiation. Secondly, we monitored the sub-hourly growth variations of clementine fruits in response to daily, natural fluctuations in air water deficit, and at contrasting source-sink balances obtained by defoliation. We show that high carbohydrate levels prevent excessive, hydraulic shrinkage of the fruit during days with high evaporative demand, most probably through osmotic adjustment. Together, our results contribute to the view that growing organs under moderate soil or air water deficit are not carbon starved, but use soluble carbohydrate in excess to partly release a hydromechanical limitation of growth.