Historical ecology: using unconventional data sources to test for effects of global environmental change

The practice of historical ecology: What, when, where, how and what for

In recent decades, there has been a growing number of studies exploring the historical dimensions of the interconnectedness of human societies and the environment. A core approach in this field is historical ecology. We analyzed 544 historical-ecological papers to assess patterns and trends in the field. We found a high degree of interdisciplinarity with a focus on local case studies, of periods of fewer than 500 years, analyzing archival sources through quantitative approaches. The proportion of papers containing management recommendations has increased over time. To make historical ecology globally relevant, more effort should be made to utilize studies across languages, borders and worldviews. We call for high standards regarding the use of social scientific methodologies. Lastly, we argue that fostering longer-term studies and assessing the real-life impact of policy recommendations emerging from historical ecology can help the discipline better contribute solutions to the challenges facing humanity in an uncertain future.

Fire sparks upslope range shifts of North Cascades plant species

As ongoing climate change drives suitable habitats to higher elevations, species ranges are predicted to follow. However, observed range shifts have been surprisingly variable, with most species differing in rates of upward shift and others failing to shift at all. Disturbances such as fires could play an important role in accelerating range shifts by facilitating recruitment in newly suitable habitats (leading edges) and removing adults from areas no longer suited for regeneration (trailing edges). To date, empirical evidence that fires interact with climate change to mediate elevational range shifts is scarce. Resurveying historical plots in areas that experienced climate change and fire disturbance between surveys provides an exciting opportunity to fill this gap. To investigate whether species have tended to shift upslope and if shifts depend on fires, we resurveyed historical vegetation plots in North Cascades National Park, Washington, USA, an area that has experienced warming, drying, and multiple fires since the original surveys in 1983. We quantified range shifts by synthesizing across two lines of evidence: (1) displacement at range edges and the median elevation of species occurrences, and (2) support for the inclusion of interactions among time, fire and elevation in models of species presence with elevation. Among species that experienced fire since the original survey, a plurality expanded into new habitats at their upper edge. In contrast, a plurality of species not experiencing fire showed no evidence of shifts, with the remainder exhibiting responses that were variable in magnitude and direction. Our results suggest that fires can facilitate recruitment at leading edges, while species in areas free of disturbance are more likely to experience stasis.

Challenges and directions in analytical paleobiology

Over the last 50 years, access to new data and analytical tools has expanded the study of analytical paleobiology, contributing to innovative analyses of biodiversity dynamics over Earth's history. Despite-or even spurred by-this growing availability of resources, analytical paleobiology faces deep-rooted obstacles that stem from the need for more equitable access to data and best practices to guide analyses of the fossil record. Recent progress has been accelerated by a collective push toward more collaborative, interdisciplinary, and open science, especially by early-career researchers. Here, we survey four challenges facing analytical paleobiology from an early-career perspective: (1) accounting for biases when interpreting the fossil record; (2) integrating fossil and modern biodiversity data; (3) building data science skills; and (4) increasing data accessibility and equity. We discuss recent efforts to address each challenge, highlight persisting barriers, and identify tools that have advanced analytical work. Given the inherent linkages between these challenges, we encourage discourse across disciplines to find common solutions. We also affirm the need for systemic changes that reevaluate how we conduct and share paleobiological research.

Was Henry David Thoreau a Good Naturalist? An Approach for Assessing Data from Historical Natural History Records

Ecologists are increasingly combining historical observations made by naturalists with modern observations to detect the ecological effects of climate change. This use of historical observations raises the following question: How do we know that historical data are appropriate to use to answer current ecological questions? In the present article, we address this question for environmental philosopher Henry David Thoreau, author of Walden. Should we trust his observations? We qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate Thoreau's observations using a three-step framework: We assess the rigor, accuracy, and utility of his observations to investigate changes in plants and animals over time. We conclude that Thoreau was an accurate observer of nature and a reliable scientist. More importantly, we describe how this simple three-step approach could be used to assess the accuracy of other scientists and naturalists.

Different temporal trends in vascular plant and bryophyte communities along elevational gradients over four decades

Despite many studies showing biodiversity responses to warming, the generality of such responses across taxonomic groups remains unclear. Very few studies have tested for evidence of bryophyte community responses to warming, even though bryophytes are major contributors to diversity and functioning in many ecosystems. Here, we report an empirical study comparing long‐term change in bryophyte and vascular plant communities in two sites with contrasting long‐term warming trends, using “legacy” botanical records as a baseline for comparison with contemporary resurveys. We hypothesized that ecological changes would be greater in sites with a stronger warming trend and that vascular plant communities, with narrower climatic niches, would be more sensitive than bryophyte communities to climate warming. For each taxonomic group in each site, we quantified the magnitude of changes in species' distributions along the elevation gradient, species richness, and community composition. We found contrasted temporal changes in bryophyte vs. vascular plant communities, which only partially supported the warming hypothesis. In the area with a stronger warming trend, we found a significant increase in local diversity and dissimilarity (β‐diversity) for vascular plants, but not for bryophytes. Presence–absence data did not provide sufficient power to detect elevational shifts in species distributions. The patterns observed for bryophytes are in accordance with recent literature showing that local diversity can remain unchanged despite strong changes in composition. Regardless of whether one taxon is systematically more or less sensitive to environmental change than another, our results suggest that vascular plants cannot be used as a surrogate for bryophytes in terms of predicting the nature and magnitude of responses to warming. Thus, to assess overall biodiversity responses to global change, abundance data from different taxonomic groups and different community properties need to be synthesized.

Responses in Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Fractionation after Prescribed Burning in the Montseny Biosphere Reserve (NE Iberian Peninsula)

Prescribed fire is one of the most widely-used management tools to recover encroached rangelands. Fire has been reported to cause changes in the soil physical and chemical properties. However, the legacy effects of former plant species on soil responses to fire remains unknown. The legacy effect of the former extant plant species on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fractionation distribution after prescribed burning in topsoil (0–5 cm and 5–10 cm) was investigated in Mediterranean shrublands in Montseny. We sampled soils under five vegetation patch types: Cytisus scoparius L., Calluna vulgaris L., Erica arborea L., Pteridium aquilinum L., and Cladonia biocrusts, pre- and post-burning. Multivariate analysis on soil C and N fractions showed that soils under the legume Cytisus and the biocrust were the most differentiated. Vegetation patch types tended to respond differently to burning, soils under Cytisus, Cladonia and Calluna showing the strongest response. Total C and N, and C and N in sand decreased after burning in the 0–5 cm soil layer. Conversely, C in silt, as well as N in clay and silt, increased with soil depth after burning. This study will be helpful for understanding ecological legacy effects and their possible consequences when planning prescribed burning.

Historical Maps provide insight into a century and a half of habitat change in Fijian coasts

Meaningful conservation goals require setting baselines derived from long-term ecological records and information that is rare in many regions of the world. Historical data allow us to shift baselines back in time in order to strengthen conservation outcomes in the future.To explore how different histories of land use and development influenced coastal ecosystems in two Fijian cities (Suva and Savusavu), we compared a series of historical navigational charts. These charts recorded change in coral reef area and coastal mangrove forests, as well as expansions of hardened shorelines. We used geographic information systems (GIS) to georeference and make quantitative comparisons starting in 1,840 in Suva and 1876 in Savusavu.Our findings show that, despite increasing urbanization in the capital Suva, available coral reef habitat has not significantly changed in over 150 years, but development has hastened a nearly 50% loss of mangroves. Meanwhile, in the smaller city of Savusavu, coral habitats suffered significant loss in area and an increase in patchiness. As in Suva, shoreline hardening increased in Savusavu, but this change was not accompanied by a loss of mangroves.Nautical charts provided hitherto unavailable information on the long-term loss and alteration of coastal habitats in Fiji. Historical ecology allows scientists to combat shifting baseline syndrome and set measured standards for conservation objectives.

Reversing extinction trends: new uses of (old) herbarium specimens to accelerate conservation action on threatened species

Although often not collected specifically for the purposes of conservation, herbarium specimens offer sufficient information to reconstruct parameters that are needed to designate a species as 'at-risk' of extinction. While such designations should prompt quick and efficient legal action towards species recovery, such action often lags far behind and is mired in bureaucratic procedure. The increase in online digitization of natural history collections has now led to a surge in the number new studies on the uses of machine learning. These repositories of species occurrences are now equipped with advances that allow for the identification of rare species. The increase in attention devoted to estimating the scope and severity of the threats that lead to the decline of such species will increase our ability to mitigate these threats and reverse the declines, overcoming a current barrier to the recovery of many threatened plant species. Thus far, collected specimens have been used to fill gaps in systematics, range extent, and past genetic diversity. We find that they also offer material with which it is possible to foster species recovery, ecosystem restoration, and de-extinction, and these elements should be used in conjunction with machine learning and citizen science initiatives to mobilize as large a force as possible to counter current extinction trends.

Spatial Correlations Don't Predict Changes in Agricultural Ecosystem Services: A Canada-Wide Case Study

Improving the management of multiple ecosystem services (e.g., food provision, water and air quality regulation, carbon storage, and erosion control) in agricultural landscapes is a critical challenge to improve food system sustainability. However, we currently lack spatially-resolved national-level assessments of the relationships among services in agricultural landscapes over time. This limits our ability to make decisions and predict how environmental changes or agricultural management actions will impact multiple services. How do multiple ecosystem services vary across both space and time, at regional-to-national scales? To address this question, we quantified eight indicators of four ecosystem services across 290 Canadian agricultural landscapes in 1996, 2001, and 2006. We observed consistent correlations between pairs of services across the 290 ecodistricts in each of the 3 years of our study. In particular, ecodistricts with high livestock production had low provision of most regulating services, while ecodistricts with high air quality (ammonia retention) also had high soil and water quality regulation services. However, these ‘snapshot’ correlations poorly predicted how pairs of services changed through time. Ecosystem service change from 1996–2001 to 2001–2006 (as measured by pairwise correlations) showed markedly different patterns than snapshot correlations. In particular, where livestock production increased between years, so did most regulating services. Ecosystem service bundles also showed similar divergent patterns. The distribution of ecosystem service “snapshot” bundles—sets of ecodistricts with similar levels of provision across multiple ecosystem services in a single year—was generally stable between 1996 and 2006; only 15% of ecodistricts changed bundle types in this time period. However, ecosystem service “change” bundles—sets of ecodistricts with similar changes in ecosystem service provision through time—were much more dynamic. Nearly 60% of ecodistricts exhibited a different set of ecosystem service changes from 2001 to 2006 compared to 1996 to 2001. Our results add to the growing evidence that relationships between services across space do not necessarily predict service change through time. Improved understanding of the spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services, and better understanding of underlying processes, is crucial to improve agricultural landscape management for multifunctionality and sustainability.

Assessment of Changes in a Viewshed in the Western Carpathians Landscape as a Result of Reforestation

A viewshed analysis is of great importance in mountainous areas characterized by high landscape values. The aim of this research was to determine the impact of reforestation occurring on former pasturelands on changes in the viewshed, and to quantify changes in the surface of glades. We combine a horizontal and a vertical approach to landscape analysis. The changes in non-forest areas and the viewshed from viewpoints located in glades were calculated using historical cartographic materials and a more recent Digital Elevation Model and Digital Surface Model. An analysis was conducted using a Visibility tool in ArcGIS. The non-forest areas decreased in the period 1848–2015. The viewshed in the majority of viewpoints also decreased in the period 1848–2015. In the majority of cases, the maximal viewsheds were calculated in 1879/1885 and 1933 (43.8% of the analyzed cases), whereas the minimal ones were calculated in 2015 (almost 57.5% of analyzed cases). Changes in the viewshed range from 0.2 to 23.5 km2 with half the cases analyzed being no more than 1.4 km2. The results indicate that forest succession on abandoned glades does not always cause a decline in the viewshed. Deforestation in neighboring areas may be another factor that has an influence on the decline.

Does historical land use affect the regional distribution of fleshy-fruited woody plants?

Species richness and composition of current vegetation may reflect historical land use. We develop and examine the hypothesis that regional distribution and richness of fleshy-fruited woody plants, a group sharing life-form and dispersal system, reflect historical land use in open or semi-open habitats. Historical land use was based on maps from around the year 1900 for two regions in Sweden, and field data was gathered from surveys made in these regions. Species richness was positively related to historical land use indicated as open habitat in 1900. In one of the regions, five out of nine examined species were positively related to historical land use (with historical effect R² ranging between 0.03 and 0.22). In the other region, we found a weaker positive relationship with historical land use in two out of nine examined species (R² 0.01 and 0.02). We conclude that current occurrence and richness of fleshy-fruited woody species is partly a legacy of historical land use, and that regions may vary in this respect. Based on a comparison between the two regions examined here, we discuss some potential causes behind this variation.

A data management workflow of biodiversity data from the field to data users

PREMISE

Heterogeneity of biodiversity data from the collections, research, and management communities presents challenges for data findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability. Workflows designed with data collection, standards, dissemination, and reuse in mind will generate better information across geopolitical, administrative, and institutional boundaries. Here, we present our data workflow as a case study of how we collected, shared, and used data from multiple sources.

METHODS

In 2012, we initiated the collection of biodiversity data relating to Michigan prairie fens, including data on plant communities and the federally endangered Poweshiek skipperling (Oarisma poweshiek).

RESULTS

Over 23,000 occurrence records were compiled in a database following Darwin Core standards. The records were linked with media and biological, chemical, and geometric measurements. We published the data as Global Biodiversity Information Facility data sets and in Symbiota SEINet portals.

DISCUSSION

We highlight data collection techniques that optimized transcription time, including the use of predetermined and controlled vocabulary, Darwin Core terms, and data dictionaries. The validity and longevity of our data were supported by voucher specimens, metadata with measurement records, and published manuscripts detailing methods and data sets. Key to our data dissemination was cooperation among partners and the utilization of dynamic tools. To increase data interoperability, we need flexible and customizable data collection templates, coding, and enhanced communication among communities using biodiversity data.

Synergistic and antagonistic effects of land use and non-native species on community responses to climate change

Climate change, land-use change and introductions of non-native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm-associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non-native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm-associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool-associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non-native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community-level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non-natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate-driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.

Humboldt's Tableau Physique revisited

Alexander von Humboldt's Tableau Physique (1807) has been one of the most influential diagrams in the history of environmental sciences. In particular, detailed observations of the altitudinal distribution of plant species in the equatorial Andes, depicted on a cross-section of Mt. Chimborazo, allowed Humboldt to establish the concept of vegetation belt, thereby laying the foundations of biogeography. Surprisingly, Humboldt's original data have never been critically revisited, probably due to the difficulty of gathering and interpreting dispersed archives. By unearthing and analyzing overlooked historical documents, we show that the top section of the Tableau Physique, above the tree line, is an intuitive construct based on unverified and therefore partly false field data that Humboldt constantly tried to revise in subsequent publications. This finding has implications for the documentation of climate change effects in the tropical Andes. We found that Humboldt's primary plant data above tree line were mostly collected on Mt. Antisana, not Chimborazo, which allows a comparison with current records. Our resurvey at Mt. Antisana revealed a 215- to 266-m altitudinal shift over 215 y. This estimate is about twice lower than previous estimates for the region but is consistent with the 10- to 12-m/decade upslope range shift observed worldwide. Our results show the cautious approach needed to interpret historical data and to use them as a resource for documenting environmental changes. They also profoundly renew our understanding of Humboldt's scientific thinking, methods, and modern relevance.

Four decades of plant community change along a continental gradient of warming

Many studies of individual sites have revealed biotic changes consistent with climate warming (e.g., upward elevational distribution shifts), but our understanding of the tremendous variation among studies in the magnitude of such biotic changes is minimal. In this study, we resurveyed forest vegetation plots 40 years after the initial surveys in three protected areas along a west-to-east gradient of increasingly steep recent warming trends in eastern Canada (Québec). Consistent with the hypothesis that climate warming has been an important driver of vegetation change, we found an increasing magnitude of changes in species richness and composition from west to east among the three parks. For the two mountainous parks, we found no significant changes in elevational species' distributions in the easternmost park (raw mean = +11.4 m at Forillon Park) where warming has been minimal, and significant upward distribution shifts in the centrally located park (+38.9 m at Mont-Mégantic), where the recent warming trend has been marked. Community Temperature Indices (CTI), reflecting the average affinities of locally co-occurring species to temperature conditions across their geographic ranges ("Species Temperature Indices"), did not change over time as predicted. However, close examination of the underpinnings of CTI values suggested a high sensitivity to uncertainty in individual species' temperature indices, and so a potentially limited responsiveness to warming. Overall, by testing a priori predictions concerning variation among parks in the direction and magnitude of vegetation changes, we have provided stronger evidence for a link between climate warming and biotic responses than otherwise possible and provided a potential explanation for large variation among studies in warming-related biotic changes.

Stronger influence of anthropogenic disturbance than climate change on century-scale compositional changes in northern forests

Predicting future ecosystem dynamics depends critically on an improved understanding of how disturbances and climate change have driven long-term ecological changes in the past. Here we assembled a dataset of >100,000 tree species lists from the 19th century across a broad region (>130,000km²) in temperate eastern Canada, as well as recent forest inventories, to test the effects of changes in anthropogenic disturbance, temperature and moisture on forest dynamics. We evaluate changes in forest composition using four indices quantifying the affinities of co-occurring tree species with temperature, drought, light and disturbance. Land-use driven shifts favouring more disturbance-adapted tree species are far stronger than any effects ascribable to climate change, although the responses of species to disturbance are correlated with their expected responses to climate change. As such, anthropogenic and natural disturbances are expected to have large direct effects on forests and also indirect effects via altered responses to future climate change.

Separating anthropogenic and climatic impacts on forest compositions can be challenging due to a lack of data. Here the authors look at forest compositional changes in eastern Canada since the 19th century and find land use has most strongly shaped communities towards disturbance-adapted species.

Using herbaria to study global environmental change

During the last centuries, humans have transformed global ecosystems. With their temporal dimension, herbaria provide the otherwise scarce long-term data crucial for tracking ecological and evolutionary changes over this period of intense global change. The sheer size of herbaria, together with their increasing digitization and the possibility of sequencing DNA from the preserved plant material, makes them invaluable resources for understanding ecological and evolutionary species' responses to global environmental change. Following the chronology of global change, we highlight how herbaria can inform about long-term effects on plants of at least four of the main drivers of global change: pollution, habitat change, climate change and invasive species. We summarize how herbarium specimens so far have been used in global change research, discuss future opportunities and challenges posed by the nature of these data, and advocate for an intensified use of these 'windows into the past' for global change research and beyond.

Improved standardization of transcribed digital specimen data

There are more than 1.2 billion biological specimens in the world's museums and herbaria. These objects are particularly important forms of biological sample and observation. They underpin biological taxonomy but the data they contain have many other uses in the biological and environmental sciences. Nevertheless, from their conception they are almost entirely documented on paper, either as labels attached to the specimens or in catalogues linked with catalogue numbers. In order to make the best use of these data and to improve the findability of these specimens, these data must be transcribed digitally and made to conform to standards, so that these data are also interoperable and reusable. Through various digitization projects, the authors have experimented with transcription by volunteers, expert technicians, scientists, commercial transcription services and automated systems. We have also been consumers of specimen data for taxonomical, biogeographical and ecological research. In this paper, we draw from our experiences to make specific recommendations to improve transcription data. The paper is split into two sections. We first address issues related to database implementation with relevance to data transcription, namely versioning, annotation, unknown and incomplete data and issues related to language. We then focus on particular data types that are relevant to biological collection specimens, namely nomenclature, dates, geography, collector numbers and uniquely identifying people. We make recommendations to standards organizations, software developers, data scientists and transcribers to improve these data with the specific aim of improving interoperability between collection datasets.

Museum specimens provide novel insights into changing plant-herbivore interactions

Mounting evidence shows that species interactions may mediate how individual species respond to climate change. However, long-term anthropogenic effects on species interactions are poorly characterized owing to a lack of data. Insect herbivory is a major ecological process that represents the interaction between insect herbivores and their host plants, but historical data on insect damage to plants is particularly sparse. Here, we suggest that museum collections of insects and plants can fill key gaps in our knowledge on changing trophic interactions, including proximate mechanisms and the net outcomes of multiple global change drivers across diverse insect herbivore-plant associations. We outline theory on how global change may affect herbivores and their host plants and highlight the unique data that could be extracted from museum specimens to explore their shifting interactions. We aim to provide a framework for using museum specimens to explore how some of the most diverse co-evolved relationships are responding to climate and land use change.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene

Global change has become a central focus of modern biology. Yet, our knowledge of how anthropogenic drivers affect biodiversity and natural resources is limited by a lack of biological data spanning the Anthropocene. We propose that the hundreds of millions of plant, fungal and animal specimens deposited in natural history museums have the potential to transform the field of global change biology. We suggest that museum specimens are underused, particularly in ecological studies, given their capacity to reveal patterns that are not observable from other data sources. Increasingly, museum specimens are becoming mobilized online, providing unparalleled access to physiological, ecological and evolutionary data spanning decades and sometimes centuries. Here, we describe the diversity of collections data archived in museums and provide an overview of the diverse uses and applications of these data as discussed in the accompanying collection of papers within this theme issue. As these unparalleled resources are under threat owing to budget cuts and other institutional pressures, we aim to shed light on the unique discoveries that are possible in museums and, thus, the singular value of natural history collections in a period of rapid change.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

Herbarium specimens reveal substantial and unexpected variation in phenological sensitivity across the eastern United States

Phenology is a key biological trait that can determine an organism's survival and provides one of the clearest indicators of the effects of recent climatic change. Long time-series observations of plant phenology collected at continental scales could clarify latitudinal and regional patterns of plant responses and illuminate drivers of that variation, but few such datasets exist. Here, we use the web tool CrowdCurio to crowdsource phenological data from over 7000 herbarium specimens representing 30 diverse flowering plant species distributed across the eastern United States. Our results, spanning 120 years and generated from over 2000 crowdsourcers, illustrate numerous aspects of continental-scale plant reproductive phenology. First, they support prior studies that found plant reproductive phenology significantly advances in response to warming, especially for early-flowering species. Second, they reveal that fruiting in populations from warmer, lower latitudes is significantly more phenologically sensitive to temperature than that for populations from colder, higher-latitude regions. Last, we found that variation in phenological sensitivities to climate within species between regions was of similar magnitude to variation between species. Overall, our results suggest that phenological responses to anthropogenic climate change will be heterogeneous within communities and across regions, with large amounts of regional variability driven by local adaptation, phenotypic plasticity and differences in species assemblages. As millions of imaged herbarium specimens become available online, they will play an increasingly critical role in revealing large-scale patterns within assemblages and across continents that ultimately can improve forecasts of the impacts of climatic change on the structure and function of ecosystems.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

Phenological responses of 215 moth species to interannual climate variation in the Pacific Northwest from 1895 through 2013

Climate change has caused shifts in the phenology and distributions of many species but comparing responses across species is challenged by inconsistencies in the methodology and taxonomic and temporal scope of individual studies. Natural history collections offer a rich source of data for examining phenological shifts for a large number of species. We paired specimen records from Pacific Northwest insect collections to climate data to analyze the responses of 215 moth species to interannual climate variation over a period of 119 years (1895–2013) during which average annual temperatures have increased in the region. We quantified the effects of late winter/early spring temperatures, averaged annually across the region, on dates of occurrence of adults, taking into account the effects of elevation, latitude, and longitude. We assessed whether species-specific phenological responses varied with adult flight season and larval diet breadth. Collection dates were significantly earlier in warmer years for 36.3% of moth species, and later for 3.7%. Species exhibited an average phenological advance of 1.9 days/°C, but species-specific shifts ranged from an advance of 10.3 days/°C to a delay of 10.6 days/°C. More spring-flying species shifted their phenology than summer- or fall-flying species. These responses did not vary among groups defined by larval diet breadth. The highly variable phenological responses to climate change in Pacific Northwest moths agree with other studies on Lepidoptera and suggest that it will remain difficult to accurately forecast which species and ecological interactions are most likely to be affected by climate change. Our results also underscore the value of natural history collections as windows into long-term ecological trends.

CrowdCurio: an online crowdsourcing platform to facilitate climate change studies using herbarium specimens

Phenology is a key aspect of plant success. Recent research has demonstrated that herbarium specimens can provide important information on plant phenology. Massive digitization efforts have the potential to greatly expand herbarium-based phenological research, but also pose a serious challenge regarding efficient data collection. Here, we introduce CrowdCurio, a crowdsourcing tool for the collection of phenological data from herbarium specimens. We test its utility by having workers collect phenological data (number of flower buds, open flowers and fruits) from specimens of two common New England (USA) species: Chelidonium majus and Vaccinium angustifolium. We assess the reliability of using nonexpert workers (i.e. Amazon Mechanical Turk) against expert workers. We also use these data to estimate the phenological sensitivity to temperature for both species across multiple phenophases. We found no difference in the data quality of nonexperts and experts. Nonexperts, however, were a more efficient way of collecting more data at lower cost. We also found that phenological sensitivity varied across both species and phenophases. Our study demonstrates the utility of CrowdCurio as a crowdsourcing tool for the collection of phenological data from herbarium specimens. Furthermore, our results highlight the insight gained from collecting large amounts of phenological data to estimate multiple phenophases.

Equipping the 22nd-Century Historical Ecologist

Historical ecology provides information needed to understand contemporary conditions and make science-based resource management decisions. Gaps in historical records, however, can limit inquiries and inference. Unfortunately, the patchiness of data that poses challenges for today's historical ecologist may be similarly problematic for those in the future seeking to understand what are currently present-day conditions and trends, in part because of societal underinvestment in systematic collection and curation. We therefore highlight the generational imperative that contemporary scientists and managers individually have - especially in this era of tremendous global change - to ensure sufficient documentation of the past and current conditions of the places and resources to which they have access.

Global environmental change effects on ecosystems: the importance of land-use legacies

One of the major challenges in ecology is to predict how multiple global environmental changes will affect future ecosystem patterns (e.g. plant community composition) and processes (e.g. nutrient cycling). Here, we highlight arguments for the necessary inclusion of land-use legacies in this endeavour. Alterations in resources and conditions engendered by previous land use, together with influences on plant community processes such as dispersal, selection, drift and speciation, have steered communities and ecosystem functions onto trajectories of change. These trajectories may be modulated by contemporary environmental changes such as climate warming and nitrogen deposition. We performed a literature review which suggests that these potential interactions have rarely been investigated. This crucial oversight is potentially due to an assumption that knowledge of the contemporary state allows accurate projection into the future. Lessons from other complex dynamic systems, and the recent recognition of the importance of previous conditions in explaining contemporary and future ecosystem properties, demand the testing of this assumption. Vegetation resurvey databases across gradients of land use and environmental change, complemented by rigorous experiments, offer a means to test for interactions between land-use legacies and multiple environmental changes. Implementing these tests in the context of a trait-based framework will allow biologists to synthesize compositional and functional ecosystem responses. This will further our understanding of the importance of land-use legacies in determining future ecosystem properties, and soundly inform conservation and restoration management actions.

Spatial and Temporal Examination of Bivalve Communities in Several Estuaries of Southern California and Northern Baja California, MX

A combination of historical bivalve surveys spanning 30–50 years and contemporary sampling were used to document the changes in bivalve community structure over time at four southern California and one northern Baja California estuaries. While there are limitations to the interpretation of historic data, we observed generally similar trends of reduced total bivalve species richness, losses of relatively large and/or deeper-dwelling natives, and gains of relatively small, surface dwelling introduced species across the southern California estuaries, despite fairly distinct bivalve communities. A nearly 50-year absence of bivalves from two wetlands surveyed in a Baja California estuary continued. A combination of site history and current characteristics (e.g., location, depth) likely contributes to maintenance of distinct communities, and both episodic and gradual environmental changes likely contribute to within-estuary temporal shifts (or absences). We highlight future research needed to determine mechanisms underlying patterns so that we can better predict responses of bivalve communities to future scenarios, including climate change and restoration.

The pace of plant community change is accelerating in remnant prairies

Patterns of biodiversity are changing rapidly. "Legacy studies" use historical data to document changes between past and present communities, revealing long-term trends that can often be linked to particular drivers of ecological change. However, a single pair of historical samples cannot ascertain whether rates of change are consistent or whether the impact and identity of drivers have shifted. Using data from a second resurvey of 47 Wisconsin prairie remnants, we show that the pace of community change has increased with shifts in the strength of particular drivers. Annual rates of local colonization and extinction accelerated by 129 and 214%, respectively, between 1950 and 1987 and between 1987 and 2012. Two anthropogenic drivers-patch area and fire history-increased in importance between these periods. As the strength and number of anthropogenic forces increase, rates of biodiversity change are likely to accelerate in other ecosystems as well.